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| Covid 19 virus |
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| Simon:
The problem will be that if they become overwhelmed the few younger people that will struggle will have as much chance as the old ones. |
| Siwastaja:
Deciding not to test isn't necessarily, fundamentally a bad idea; it's, however, the polar opposite of the WHO and expert advice, so to take such a fundamentally different approach than the others, is a human experiment. Deciding not to test should go along with a stricter-than-usual limitations on social actions, and monitoring thereof. One expert analysis I remember reading about (sorry, no reference) is that one infected can infect 3000 more, if not quarantined. While this is a worst-case, I can easily believe real-world numbers are in hundreds. Wide testing reduces such incidents. I see this is clearly the strategy Germany and South Korea have taken. Another possibility would be to basically put everybody - or at very least, everybody showing even the mildest symptoms (which isn't very effective because there is a symptomless yet infectious period) - in quarantine-like (or nearly so; for example, allowing one visit to a store per week, and nothing else) conditions. Without enforcing by brute force by police, it won't work. So in practice, this level of control happens only when the society is already collapsing, currently it seems we are at this point only in Italy and Spain. So as long as people do continue to socialize, maybe just limiting it "by a little bit" as instructed by the officials and the media here (there are many conflicting instructions; people pick which suits them best, which is the "reducing socializing a little bit is enough" advice), the best way to work around this is to test, test, and again, test. When someone tests positive, then they most likely take the quarantine seriously, and it's easier to enforce for those very few who still won't. |
| SiliconWizard:
--- Quote from: Siwastaja on March 20, 2020, 04:54:36 pm ---Deciding not to test isn't necessarily, fundamentally a bad idea; it's, however, the polar opposite of the WHO and expert advice, so to take such a fundamentally different approach than the others, is a human experiment. --- End quote --- Indeed. I find this rather blunt to defend the opposite view now that the WHO has made the point clearly. As I already said multiple times, the real point IMO in many countries is that we just don't have the capacity to do more testing. So we just can't comply, and find reasons not to (so the populations don't panic and get back at their governments, which admittedly would just make things worse at the very moment.) Just MHO. --- Quote from: Siwastaja on March 20, 2020, 04:54:36 pm ---So as long as people do continue to socialize, maybe just limiting it "by a little bit" as instructed by the officials and the media here (there are many conflicting instructions; people pick which suits them best, which is the "reducing socializing a little bit is enough" advice), the best way to work around this is to test, test, and again, test. When someone tests positive, then they most likely take the quarantine seriously, and it's easier to enforce for those very few who still won't. --- End quote --- Agreed. Besides relentlessly working on a future vaccine, we should definitely work very hard on devising quick and cheap tests. |
| not1xor1:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 01:42:44 pm --- Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear. --- End quote --- just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion) |
| not1xor1:
--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 02:15:28 pm --- --- Quote from: Siwastaja on March 20, 2020, 02:09:07 pm --- We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!) --- End quote --- Yeah, according to WHO today Italy is doing the worst of all, with 473 new deaths in the last day, compared to 42 in US and 11 in China. Spain is at 107. By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo. Actually there are a whole bunch of countries with no deaths at all. Israel, Vietnam, Iceland, much of Southeast Asia (eg, India region), etc. --- End quote --- you must be that kind of guy who thinks that (x - 50%) + 50% = x... ;D you just do not know that you do not know |
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