General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
iMo:
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 20, 2020, 10:08:10 pm ---..But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
--- End quote ---
These "5 younger ones" below could live another 30 years when treated properly in the Mayo Clinic, would it fit the semantic discussion?
--- Quote ---To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular, 5 of these were less than 40 and they were all male people aged between 31 and 39 with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).
--- End quote ---
Mr. Scram:
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 20, 2020, 10:08:10 pm ---But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
--- End quote ---
One can also ask how long they would have lived if they didn't have pre-existing conditions. Judging by the numbers the overwhelming majority would likely have been fine. This virus seems to bring any existing cracks to light. Regardless, it seems sensible to count them as Covid deaths but as far as I can tell that's happening.
Someone:
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 08:16:18 pm ---
--- Quote from: Zero999 on March 20, 2020, 08:02:23 pm ---I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.
--- End quote ---
COVID-19 affecting people with vulnerable lungs more than a regular flu doesn't seem disputed. Smoking does a number on pretty much everything in your body. It'd be interesting to see whether the statistics show that smoking in itself means being at increased risk from COVID-19.
--- End quote ---
Not much time/data for quality epidemiological works (that I could find), but a lesser quality reference to start with:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Cardiovascular disease isn't a death sentence when combined with COVID-19, but greatly increases the impact.
Cerebus:
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 10:10:58 pm ---
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 10:00:11 pm ---That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment. I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.
--- End quote ---
Equating hospitalization for flu and Covid is likely to lead to skewed results. People are used to flu but extreme caution was and is taken with Covid. Add to that the likely large number of unreported cases and the hospitalization rate becomes a very loose number. We'll likely learn more about the actual rates or at least better estimates when thing have calmed down and things are looked at more carefully.
--- End quote ---
Aww c'mon. Do you really think that the criteria for "seriously ill enough to need a hospital bed" are going to be downgraded from an abundance of caution at a time when there is pressure on hospital beds?
I think at this point it's becoming pretty clear that you want to believe this to be less serious then it is and you're not going to be convinced by the pretty conclusive evidence that we've already seen that this is an order of magnitude more serious than seasonal flu.
Taking a reasoned, proportioned reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, based on facts, is one thing. It helps no one if people's reaction to this gets out of proportion. Downplaying it to the point of near denial of how serious the situation is, is just as unhelpful in the other direction.
This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
Muttley Snickers:
--- Quote from: Simon on March 20, 2020, 09:58:18 pm ---Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.
--- End quote ---
I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance. >:D
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version