General > General Technical Chat
Covid 19 virus
iMo:
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 10:42:25 pm ---.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
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There is also a parameter called "viral load".
An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.."
How the viral load could affect those calculations?
Someone:
--- Quote from: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 10:18:38 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 20, 2020, 10:08:10 pm ---But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
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One can also ask how long they would have lived if they didn't have pre-existing conditions. Judging by the numbers the overwhelming majority would likely have been fine. This virus seems to bring any existing cracks to light. Regardless, it seems sensible to count them as Covid deaths but as far as I can tell that's happening.
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Years of potential life lost will need lots more data and research to settle on, but historically (in Australia) deaths from Influenza claimed 4 years of life on average which is right down at the low end with things like heart disease (also 4 years). Contrast against the publicised/emotive examples:
Childbirth, 48 years
Accidental Drowning in Swimming Pools, 46 years
Transport Accidents, 34 years
Suicide, 34 years
Breast Cancer, 11 years
Digestive Cancers, 7 years
VK3DRB:
--- Quote from: BravoV on March 20, 2020, 04:37:14 am ---Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ... :-+ :clap:
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Something not right here. Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's. Notice all the carefully selected scenery is modern and clean. Heaps of red army style saluting going on. All these exhausted doctors are all laughing and happy. They would be suffering from exhaustion in reality, and they would be emotional wrecks after they have witnessed so much misery. Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.
The first casualty of war is the truth.
Simon:
but western doctors wear masks.
nctnico:
--- Quote from: Muttley Snickers on March 20, 2020, 10:48:39 pm ---
--- Quote from: Simon on March 20, 2020, 09:58:18 pm ---Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.
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I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance. >:D
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Nowadays someone could make a fortune from sweat smell perfume!
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