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| Covid 19 virus |
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| nctnico:
--- Quote from: VK3DRB on March 20, 2020, 11:18:55 pm --- Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:. The first casualty of war is the truth. --- End quote --- Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right. |
| VK3DRB:
We have been told by doctors here masks worn by the public do nothing unless the wearer has the virus. I went shopping yesterday in a shopping centre, and except for one westerner the only people wearing marks were Chinese. Maybe we have been fed :bullshit: by our government too because they did not want a run on masks. |
| Cerebus:
--- Quote from: imo on March 20, 2020, 11:06:34 pm --- --- Quote from: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 10:42:25 pm ---.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2. --- End quote --- There is also a parameter called "viral load". An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.." How the viral load could affect those calculations? --- End quote --- It doesn't. R0 and case fatality ratio may be an effect of viral load, but they measure end points that might be affected by viral load not something that you can then add a 'viral load' factor to. |
| Mr. Scram:
--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 10:42:25 pm ---Aww c'mon. Do you really think that the criteria for "seriously ill enough to need a hospital bed" are going to be downgraded from an abundance of caution at a time when there is pressure on hospital beds? I think at this point it's becoming pretty clear that you want to believe this to be less serious then it is and you're not going to be convinced by the pretty conclusive evidence that we've already seen that this is an order of magnitude more serious than seasonal flu. Taking a reasoned, proportioned reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, based on facts, is one thing. It helps no one if people's reaction to this gets out of proportion. Downplaying it to the point of near denial of how serious the situation is, is just as unhelpful in the other direction. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2. --- End quote --- It's unfortunate people seem to be misconstruing my words. Anyone who thinks I'm of the opinion we don't have a very serious situation on our hands and need to act with conviction is gravely mistaken. This is reflected by my behaviour in real life as well. I'm doing my part. That being said, some people are treating this as an outbreak with very little chance of survival. Instead, the vast majority of cases will resemble a minor to a severe flu without requiring treatment. The large number of simultaneous infections and the treatment of the most severe infections is the issue. It goes without saying Covid 19 isn't exactly like the flu as it's not the flu and we wouldn't be discussing it if it was. The reality is that we're not all going to die and the vast majority will be fine, but also a non trivial amount of people will die. This unfortunately isn't entirely unlike the flu either. Our efforts will decide how many preventable deaths will occur. |
| Cerebus:
--- Quote from: VK3DRB on March 20, 2020, 11:18:55 pm ---The video is propaganda :bullshit:. The first casualty of war is the truth. --- End quote --- Of course it is propaganda. Being propaganda does not necessarily imply untruth. Was Allied WWII propaganda untrue? In the most part no. You, from reading many of your postings over the years, are clearly an ideologue. Ideology and propaganda are firm bedfellows. Does that mean we should treat every thing you say as propaganda and therefore untrue? No, and no. The problem here is that you are dealing with a government and ideology that are strongly at odds with your own ideology. That tends to be a bit denting to objectivity and truthiness too. |
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