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Covid 19 virus

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rdl:
About halfway down is a map showing cases in the US by state.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

tinhead:
no worries, US is coming up, already top 3, till end of next week we will get 100k in US :\

Btw, all the media statements, based on the statistics are actually wrong (or really optimistic). Everybody counts death/total, but that's only true if Health System works/exists. The real important number is death/death+recovered. Only China managed to get high recovered number, so everybody counts like for China, 1.5 to 4.5 %, but does anybody else isolated milions of ppl? or build hospitals? Actually not, so how in the hell can we take numbers from China and lie to all ppl, watch e.g. Italy to understand how that ends up.

engrguy42:
If you assume that something like 3% of confirmed cases will become fatalities at some point, and at this point in the US there are say 15-20,000 confirmed cases (actually 15,219 reported today), then it seems reasonable to assume in the next week or two we can expect the number of total deaths so far to rise from the present 200 to at least around 200 + 600 = 800 in the US.

Personally, I expect (hope) that the strong restrictions being put in place in the US are going to have a positive impact in the near future in terms of a reduction of new confirmed cases.

 

Cerebus:


--- Quote ---NOOOO Sal! Don't use Tomas' work! He's not a mathematician; there's a massive fundamental flaw with his blog post. He misused posterior/prior probabilities in it. In the part where he estimates 800 actual cases by the time of 1st death, he uses a 1% probability for the death.
But he should be using Bayes to incorporate the info that the person had died (in other words, a dead person is more likely to have come from a high mortality demographic than a 1% demographic). It's the same mistake that was infamously made in the OJ Simpson case. 
--- End quote ---

I get a feeling of fear whenever I hear Bayesian statistics mentioned. There's nothing wrong with Bayesian statistics, if and only if, it is in the hands of a competent trained statistician. In the hands of others who don't properly understand it, it rapidly degenerates into at best a farce, at worst a method of proving that black is white and white is black (unfortunately this does not result in the perpetrators getting killed on the next Zebra Crossing a la Douglas Adams). My loathing is based on having seem the twaddle tramped out in peer reviewed sociology journals where you could drive a fleet of buses through the Bayesian statistics used. For every 1 social scientist who actually knows what a prior probability is and how to use it properly, I'll show you 999 who don't and just pluck prior probabilities out of thin air that support their argument. Rant over.

flyte:
I don't get it why people are focusing so much on wearing masks.


* Are they effective? Of course they are and even more so when grading goes up. There is a reason why they protect you from asbestos fibers or toxic dust. So they will protect your from infected particles or droplets. But in the present case it can give you a very false sense of security, because you can get infected in a ton of other ways as well: touching objects or other people, public infrastructure, shoes and clothes contamination, etc. if that contamination makes it into your eyes, face or mouth. Readjusting your glasses or hair without having disinfected or washed hands, is all it takes. If you isolate with your family and keep distance from other people and you strictly abide by it, then a mask is of limited use. As I've said, I had 10 FFP3's and came to the conclusion they're less useful to me but not to exposed health workers who may be within inches of Covid-19 patients' mouth or nose, hundreds of times a day. So I didn't keep them, as they were nearly begging for them.
* So why are there no masks in the west but in China there are? Because we didn't react on time and waited until stocks were depleted. Western politicians, all of them, were simply busy discussing it all or playing it down while they should have been paying attention and acting and preparing at the time. There was no sense of urgency nor duty. Now it's too late. It's like considering military purchases when you are already at war. Moreover, China clearly has a manufacturing advantage for these things, the majority of these commodities are made over there so it was probably very easy for them to gear up production for local use and restrict export.

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