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Covid 19 virus

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Cerebus:

--- Quote from: Sredni on March 22, 2020, 01:15:52 am ---The way I see it, in this case it's just the use of Bayes' theorem to estimate conditional probability.

--- End quote ---

You misunderstand, I am agreeing with him:


--- Quote from: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 12:59:57 am ---

--- Quote ---NOOOO Sal! Don't use Tomas' work! He's not a mathematician; there's a massive fundamental flaw with his blog post. He misused posterior/prior probabilities in it.
--- End quote ---

I get a feeling of fear whenever I hear Bayesian statistics mentioned. There's nothing wrong with Bayesian statistics, if and only if, it is in the hands of a competent trained statistician. In the hands of others who don't properly understand it...

--- End quote ---

Proper statisticians are mathematicians, mathematicians are proper statisticians.

Tomk:
I don't think this has been posted here so far:

--- Quote ---The Code Life Ventilator Challenge is a 2-week sprint to collect the best ideas from anywhere in the world to create or design life-saving ventilators. It’s a joint initiative between the Montreal General Hospital Foundation and the RI-MUHC.
--- End quote ---

https://www.mghfoundation.com/en/news/code-life-ventilator-challenge/
https://www.agorize.com/en/challenges/code-life-challenge

Might be interesting if you already have a design in your drawer.

not1xor1:

--- Quote from: vodka on March 21, 2020, 09:05:01 pm ---Worse, because  he is urgency doctor from Granada  and he has a lot information about of Italian situation. Futhermore, he said that the italian public healthcare is less quality than the spanish public healthcare when  Italy was 1000 deaths.

--- End quote ---

there are just so many parameters that it is quite hard to compare health care systems
even comparing mortality for each kind of disease or event (e.g. gravidance) is difficult as there are different method to classify that

for instance according to official statistics Italy does much better (10 times or so) regarding birth and mother mortality than US, but once they correct that by using same counting methods that becomes just 3-4 times (do not remember exactly as it is something I read last year on the Italian edition of Scientific American) - well that still a lot better if you consider the greater health care expenditure vs. GDP of US compared to the Italian one

of course US might do much better than Italy regarding other types of diseases or treatments (so I deleted my previous extremely stupid remark)

not1xor1:

--- Quote from: engrguy42 on March 21, 2020, 09:55:22 pm ---FWIW, I've pretty much stopped following this thread, but I thought I'd jump in and provide some of the latest WHO data for the US. Attached is my Excel graph of total deaths as well as new deaths each day.

The blue bars are total deaths to date, and the yellow are the new deaths each day. Apparently CDC's numbers are higher (for whatever reason...I'm thinking WHO might be a day behind CDC or something) but I thought I'd stick with WHO to make them comparable to the rest of the world.

For the TL;DR crowd, basically the number of new deaths in the US has been pretty flat at between 40 and 50 each day for the last 4 days. I also adjusted the vertical scale to highlight that it's all a matter of perspective. And to allow for the inevitable increase.

--- End quote ---

wikipedia already provides that although it still lags behind John Hopkins University data (currently US third country in the world for cases - 26'747) while it is too early (not enough data) to seriously consider a clear trend in deaths progression

not1xor1:
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000

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