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General => General Chat => Topic started by: cleanworkbench on February 21, 2020, 07:28:53 pm

Title: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 21, 2020, 07:28:53 pm
Just had a thought , do you think the labs are using scanning electron microscopes to take a tour inside the  virus as virtual reality and tinker with it to view an outcome in real time ie accelerated graphics , i,m no expert but anyone reckon its feasible . 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: janoc on February 21, 2020, 09:20:23 pm
No.

The labs that are doing the analyses have much better and more important things to do than to tinker with Hollywood style gadgets that wouldn't bring any benefit for their jobs.

Also, the fact that you can view a virus using a microscope and that there is a virtual reality helmet available doesn't mean that can just feed video from a microscope into a VR helmet and expect it to "work". You would get only a blurry low resolution mess that would make you nauseous and you wouldn't see anything more than what you can see on the screen of the microscope already anyway.

If you really wanted to do this, you would need to know how to:

a) Model the behavior of the virus (extremely complex task, notabene when it is something as new as this one where the knowledge is still very limited) so that it can be meaningfully simulated.

b) Make such simulations real-time. They aren't, not even close. We are talking typically hours and days of simulation time, and that is for chemical reactions, not a living system which is order of magnitudes more complex than a simple chemical reaction between molecules. In biology it is faster (and more accurate!) to do it in a petri dish than to simulate, especially when we don't even know how to simulate behaviour of anything of this complexity yet!

c) To develop an VR application that would interface with such simulation. We are talking enormous amounts of data which you can't simply load into a GPU and let the helmet display it. I did a visualization of chemical reactions in Li-ion batteries last year and about million particles (atoms/molecules) was pushing it already.

Even the simplest virus has orders of magnitude larger complexity if you want to simulate effects of e.g. a new drug on it. That would require a lot of very fancy and complex technology  to manage such visualization, not to mention the costs of the hardware to run it on.

E.g. this paper speaks about 6.5 millions of atoms in a capsid (shell) of a polio virus, which has been simulated for 200ns (!) using a supercomputer (only the capsid, without the virus) :
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.5.7117/full/


(develops VR applications for living)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on February 22, 2020, 12:48:21 am
Doing biological simulations is what the Folding@Home project (and cryptocurrency that uses it for mining, as in Curecoin and Foldingcoin) does.
https://foldingforum.org/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=32124
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 22, 2020, 11:46:01 am
Well i learnt something there , very interesting many thanks .  So its down to good old fashion common sense and today,s technology to save us then .
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rerouter on February 22, 2020, 12:15:25 pm
https://boinc.bakerlab.org/rosetta/forum_thread.php?id=13510&postid=91696#91696

There is a lot of computing resources being thrown at the problem, and even then it will not be fast to discover its base structure, let alone then using that to attempt simulating how it interacts with everything, Its more a case of searching for what might be a chink in the armor that could them be used to damage it, or interrupt its replication.

Re the scanning electron mircoscope, viruses are just a bundle of DNA packaged in the shell, if the shell is closed, they look like popcorn chicken, if open, it is usually too well packaged to be able to take a 3D model of the interior structures.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 22, 2020, 08:55:22 pm
It sounds like a very weird world inner space ,lets hope they can crack the code .
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: angrybird on February 24, 2020, 11:08:54 pm
I wish they would put this much work into figuring out why nuthatch are so damn cute and distracting.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on February 25, 2020, 12:22:32 am
You don't do molecular dynamics simulations to find out how to stop viruses from replicating.  You work on the 1) the outer envelope of lipids to see how to get immune systems to recognize and attack the virus particles, 2) on the capsid or shell protecting the genetic information, for the same reason, or 3) on the DNA or RNA strands to find a way to stop the virus from replicating.

None of them are flashy research where one brilliant mind can solve the thing in hours like in movies.
We have a lot of data on how viruses work, but because living cells are so complex and varied, it is extremely hard work to find out how particular strains of a virus work, and how they can be disrupted.  It's much more like trying to find commonalities between the books from a couple of dozen authors, than people trying to think of creative ways to attack it directly.

Vaccines are essentially just ways of teaching immune cells what to track and attack.  Some antiviral treatments only reduce the replication enough for the body to keep up -- it's like the difference between nuclear fission in a reactor keeping it hot (requiring constant medication) and in a nuclear bomb.  Some antiviral treatments stop the replication, so that when the infected cells eventually die, the person is fully cured.

Viruses also mutate constantly.  When two (different!) viruses infect the same cell, they exchange DNA/RNA.  This is why it is extremely scary when a patient with a deadly virus infection gets infected with a more infectitious virus: the new combined one can be both deadly and infectitous.  We should also be more careful about the medication we use, because if you don't kill all of a virus, only most of it (to bring the viral load down to levels the body can manage on its own), the virus variants that survived the medication can spread.  This is exactly how superbugs came to be.

That is also why finding the "root" of the virus is sometimes important: you can find the commonalities before the mutations, so you can target the entire "descendant" set.  As an example, there are four influenza virus variants, three of which cause flu, but vaccination only protects for a year or so, and only for the chosen variant -- but since we don't know which of the three will be the major one next flu season, it's always a bit of a guess work.

For corvid-19, the reports that a person could have been reinfected very soon after recovery are the most alarming, because if so, we really have no hope for developing effective antiviral treatments for it; they all depend on the human immune system to do the heavy work, and if the human immune system doesn't develop any kind of immunity (for at least a couple of months), it means the immune system does not have a reliable way of recognizing the virus, and none of our antiviral treatments have much hope of working at all.

The most important thing here is that corvid-19 is not that special.  We know influenza becomes a worldwide epidemic killing millions about three times a century; and now it looks like coronaviruses can cause similar epidemics.  Corvid-19 is just a bit less infectitious and a bit more deadly.

What we should do, is to not stock food and resources until this epidemic passes, but to try and find ways of combating the spread of these viruses in the first place.  It may mean things like no more flights or public transport when you have a cold/flu/whatever; that wearing gloves becomes the norm for everybody throughout the year (that helps avoid flu already); and that sneezing, coughing, or spitting towards someone becomes bigger faux pas than saying a racial slur.

You see, while this too will pass, there will always be the next, and the next, and so on.  And since humans mix more than ever before, considering the ways viruses share genetic data, at least some of the future ones will be even worse.  This is not the end of the world (because 90% of the people who have gotten infected recover; so even if every human being on this planet were to be infected, 90% would still survive), so no need to panic; but this would be the optimum time to look at how we deal with epidemics and the spread of infectitious diseases as a planet-wide species.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 26, 2020, 08:32:08 pm
So does it matter which part of the planet a human is from as to whether the mutation would be a different type . In simplistic terms someone from China develops covid 19 and as it works its way around the world does it end up as something else but still covid 19 , is this the mutation that they appear to be chasing. ?.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on February 26, 2020, 08:48:05 pm
So does it matter which part of the planet a human is from as to whether the mutation would be a different type.
No, we are all one species in this regard.

There are differences in how human bodies deal with the virus, though.  As an example, people with sickle cell anemia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease) are much less likely to get malaria.  For coronaviruses, I am not aware of any regional differences in immunity or otherwise.  There could be some, we just don't know yet.  If there are any, it is probably related to inherited immunity from previous generations' encounters with the same family of viruses, coronaviruses, and not differences in humans per se.

In simplistic terms someone from China develops covid 19 and as it works its way around the world does it end up as something else but still covid 19 , is this the mutation that they appear to be chasing.
Each virus has its own typical mutation rate.  It does not matter whether it travels around the world, or slowly infects new people in the same region, they just tend to mutate at the same rate.  That is not the issue here.

The risk is that if it is true that the same person can get infected within weeks of recovering from the virus, the mutation rate is such that human immune system can't keep up.  The virus looks completely new to the immune system, so it doesn't recognise it as something it needs to fight/eat.  Fortunately, it now looks that this report was not that, but something like a misdiagnosis in the first place.

Secondary risk is that people with other viruses in their system, more dangerous but less virulent ones like a hemorrhagic fever, get infected.  In those cases, the two viruses may exchange genetic material, with completely new variants being "created" as a result.  It is not common, but it is known to happen.  If this virus came to be without human intervention, this is likely how it developed in some animal (a "mix" of two different coronaviruses, I mean; I've heard of similarities to some coronaviruses endemic/typical in bats and some other species), then jumped to a human being, and started to spread.

For now, the problem in treating covid-19 is that we have no way to tag the virus for the human immune system to detect it early.  It will detect it when you're already sick -- could be two to four weeks after initial infection, and you'll be spreading the virus during all that time.  We have no medicine that can help the body combat the virus; we can just treat the symptoms (pain, kidney failure) and keep the patients hydrated and so on.  If we could describe it to our immune cells -- that's what the flu vaccine does; the body remembers that particular description for a year or so, but as there are three different variants, it's always a bit of a guesswork which one to get/give -- they could attack it immediately, and prevent the virus from getting a foothold.

If the "native change rate", mutation rate, in the virus were so fast that the same person could be reinfected within weeks, there would be about zero hope of finding a way to tag the virus, as it changes faster than we could manufacture the tagging stuff.  Again, it does not look that way, although for a couple of days, I was quite alarmed about that.  (I'm a materials scientist, a physicist, not a doctor, though.)

The reason it is important to keep track of the path of the virus, is that two to four week incubation period.  If we know how the virus is passed on, we can prepare the medical facilities accordingly; basically make better guesses as to where resources are needed.  When "untraceable" infections pop up, it means there are carriers we don't know about, and when they get sick, there could be many of them in the same area; and then it can be very hard to get them help in time.  (Covid-19 seems to be particularly hard to the kidneys in the severe cases; many in intensive care are in dialysis, to reduce the stress on their kidneys.  Otherwise its symptoms are comparable to the flu.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on February 27, 2020, 04:16:57 pm
Interestingly there is none child below 2-3 years of age infected. Why?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on February 27, 2020, 04:18:03 pm
Interestingly there is none child below 2-3 years of age infected. Why?

Double check your facts. The youngest report in China is freaking 5 days after birth.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on February 27, 2020, 04:23:21 pm
Do you have a statistics from 5days to 3years of age?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on February 27, 2020, 04:26:56 pm
Do you have a statistics from 5days to 3years of age?

Just sparse news reports from time to time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 27, 2020, 06:56:27 pm
Oh well folks thanks for the insight , i just hope there's a very clever and highly skilled team out there in a lab somewhere .
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on February 27, 2020, 07:28:08 pm
Oh well folks thanks for the insight , i just hope there's a very clever and highly skilled team out there in a lab somewhere .
It's actually more like "hope there is enough people working on this and coordinating with each other, because the 'haystack' they need to comb through is so vast".

The haystack being the genetic information in covid-19, and the "needle" being either some way of tagging it for immune system to attack, or a way to weaken the virus from infecting new cells or slowing or stopping the replication.  Lots of possibilities, but only very, very few of them actually work, and all need to be tested to find the ones that do work.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on February 27, 2020, 08:03:22 pm
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases (numbers of the tracking sites are still quite old and vary around 26 but there were 20 new cases recently), thankfully still without any fatality. The number of confirmed influenza cases for this season is around 100k though with 161 fatalities and nobody really cares.
In the influenza season 2017/18, 25k (!) people died (about 0.03% of the population) in Germany and nobody panicked about that. And still lots of people don't even care about influenza vaccination.
So, yes. it's a serious thing, maybe a bit more serious than influenza if it really spreads worldwide but it's not the apocalypse. Just as with influenza, most people that die of it are either old or suffer from a serious pre-existing illness.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on February 27, 2020, 08:09:45 pm
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases (numbers of the tracking sites are still quite old and vary around 26 but there were 20 new cases recently), thankfully still without any fatality. The number of confirmed influenza cases for this season is around 100k though with 161 fatalities and nobody really cares.
In the influenza season 2017/18, 25k (!) people died (about 0.03% of the population) in Germany and nobody panicked about that. And still lots of people don't even care about influenza vaccination.
So, yes. it's a serious thing, maybe a bit more serious than influenza if it really spreads worldwide but it's not the apocalypse. Just as with influenza, most people that die of it are either old or suffer from a serious pre-existing illness.

Also, let's not forget about ~40,000 traffic fatalities each year (USA) that we are completely OK with...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on February 27, 2020, 08:19:45 pm
"One person's death is a tragedy, a million deaths is just a statistic".

I hope it stays purely a statistic for you.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on February 28, 2020, 01:54:03 am
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases


   Germany today is China two months ago.  How is that for perspective?

  The public and the govenments in the US, Europe and the rest of the world should have already realized what is happening in China today is something that we're going to have to deal with in the very near future.

   If you need a reminder of how quickly this can spread and at what the medical and economic effects are just look at Italy or at South Korea over the last two weeks. And this virus is just getting started! 

    Think is this as being December 1917 and the 1918 Spanish flu is just beginning to be noticed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on February 28, 2020, 02:03:53 am
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases (numbers of the tracking sites are still quite old an died (about 0.03% of the population) in Germany and nobody panicked about that. And still lots of people don't even care about influenza vaccination.
Call us when coronavirus Death will knock Your door and let is know if ignorance and denial helped scare her away.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on February 28, 2020, 10:07:24 am
You guys really know how to turn a calm and rational statement into something coldhearted and misanthropic. Please try to read whole sentences or even paragraphs before trying to blame other people of a horrible attitude.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on February 28, 2020, 10:30:01 am
You guys really know how to turn a calm and rational statement into something coldhearted and misanthropic. Please try to read whole sentences or even paragraphs before trying to blame other people of a horrible attitude.

Well, you said "it's nothing to worry about, and anyway mostly old and sick people will die". Neither statements is factual. Since no one has a crystal ball, the rational statement is "we don't know how bad it will get".

If you said "I'm not worried about it", that would be a valid opinion. But you tried to dress it up as "you should not be worried because <made up reasons>". Not rational at all.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on February 28, 2020, 11:30:32 am
Well, you said "it's nothing to worry about, and anyway mostly old and sick people will die". Neither statements is factual. Since no one has a crystal ball, the rational statement is "we don't know how bad it will get".
No, that's not what I said. That's what you decided to read into it. Which says a lot about your perception of yourself and other people but nothing about what you falsely quoted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on February 28, 2020, 01:01:41 pm
Well, you said "it's nothing to worry about, and anyway mostly old and sick people will die". Neither statements is factual. Since no one has a crystal ball, the rational statement is "we don't know how bad it will get".
No, that's not what I said. That's what you decided to read into it. Which says a lot about your perception of yourself and other people but nothing about what you falsely quoted.

If you really think that is not what you said, you really need to be a lot more careful about how you write things. But no need to get your panties in a bunch, it's not the apocalypse, right?

Anyway, at least you agree it is something serious which needs people's attention, and will affect people of all ages.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on February 28, 2020, 03:57:56 pm
If you really think that is not what you said, you really need to be a lot more careful about how you write things.
Well, I simply didn't say would you apparently like to think I did. After all you felt the need to forge the quote just to be sure. It's quite obvious how you interpreted the worst by reading only a part here and a part there and filling the gaps with your worst expectations. It's probably easy to feel righteous and be angry about others at the same time with this approach. Not my cup of tea though, so please don't put words in my mouth.

But no need to get your panties in a bunch, it's not the apocalypse, right?
Sorry, I kinda mistook this for a serious discussion. Guess I was wrong. So I'm outta here and leave this to the prophets of the apocalypse.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on February 28, 2020, 06:57:07 pm
For what it is worth (less than two cents, really), here's my opinion:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 1Ghz on February 29, 2020, 10:03:55 am
South Korea records its biggest daily jump in infections https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html)

It's getting worse day by day. :(
Total infections is now 3000+!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on February 29, 2020, 01:38:26 pm
  Yeap, and the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days. And France has jumped from 38 to 57. That's a 50% increase in the last two days! Anyone that understands anything about geometric progression knows where this is leading. Japan who has been treating this very serious for weeks now has had 20 new cases in the last 24 hours.  And China is still getting something like 500 new cases everyday, for weeks nows.

   The US has added at least three possibly four new cases and they're had very tight travel restrictions, quarantining and monitoring in place for weeks. The reports says that there are only THREE new cases in the US but the total was 54 for over a week and now it's 63 so somewhere, they also snuck in 6 more cases in addition to the three reported ones.

   The CDC tried to move a bunch of infected patients from Travis AFB to a city in California with the  city's knowledge or consent, claiming that they needed more room, but the city got wind of it and has filed a federal lawsuit to block the move. The US also has at least twenty known quarantine sites, which seems like a lot for only for only 63 people!  Obviously they're expecting this to get much worse before it gets better.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on February 29, 2020, 02:12:46 pm
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???
This is not a fucking GAME!!  It has now crossed the lines to being a PANDEMIC.
There is NOTHING 'racist' about protecting one's country-folk.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on February 29, 2020, 02:31:19 pm
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???

 :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on February 29, 2020, 02:40:31 pm
Sorry, I kinda mistook this for a serious discussion. Guess I was wrong. So I'm outta here and leave this to the prophets of the apocalypse.

Well, thanks for being "calm and rational"  :-DD

Some genuinely calm and rational commentary :  Is Coronavirus ‘Like a Strong Flu’?  (https://www.polygraph.info/a/coronavirus-vs-flu-fact-check/30458388.html)  (Rated: "misleading").

The article doesn't have soundbite conclusions, and is worth reading in full. Some excerpts:

Quote
But in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.

“There is a lot of panic at the moment that is really not warranted,” he said. “If you think about the fundamental health impacts, they are significant but it is not like we have a real pandemic. It’s like a strong flu.”

Quote
Indeed, as coronavirus cases continue to emerge globally, scientists are urgently studying its characteristics, but it may be too soon to draw conclusions about fatality rates, transmission and who is most vulnerable to infection or complications.

“There are so many huge unknowns about this outbreak,” said Professor Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University told The Guardian this month. “For example, we don’t know just how infectious people are before they show symptoms. That makes it impossible to predict what is going to happen.”

“The trouble is, this outbreak is caused by a very different virus. And unlike flu, there are no vaccines or treatments and, crucially, no pre-existing immunity in the population.”

All quotes 100% genuine  :-+


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on February 29, 2020, 04:49:05 pm
Nature is doing what it's doing best. 
And humans are not, necessarily, a guaranteed part of its long term plan, whatever we think.

It's definitely spreading in a predictable way, however everybody seems to be surprised that it does...

We can get over this but it needs everybody to put some efforts in.

Stay safe, sane, and civil, guys. 

Leo
It's getting worse day by day. :(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 01, 2020, 06:59:47 pm
Speaking of "nature"...

https://www.latestly.com/world/nasa-and-european-space-agency-satellites-show-chinas-pollution-levels-have-dropped-amid-coronavirus-shutdown-1569986.html (https://www.latestly.com/world/nasa-and-european-space-agency-satellites-show-chinas-pollution-levels-have-dropped-amid-coronavirus-shutdown-1569986.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 01, 2020, 07:38:36 pm
Quote
But in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.
When it comes to dealing with  a risk of  a pandemic, a CEO of some "financial services company" will be the last person i am going to listen to.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 01, 2020, 07:47:29 pm
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???
This is not a fucking GAME!!  It has now crossed the lines to being a PANDEMIC.
There is NOTHING 'racist' about protecting one's country-folk.
I am sure the Chinese Government loves the Canadian Government who says "when you see a Chinese person, shake their hand". Can you imagine a more moronic advice from a country's health official ?  When i heard that on the radio i did not know if to laugh or to cry.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on March 01, 2020, 08:35:36 pm
I think most humans are too stupid to work this out, until a pandemic that actually kills a major fraction of humans on this planet comes along.  We just do not seem to be able to look at history, see what actions lead to, and avoid those disastrous actions.
Not too stupid to work it out, just unwilling to significantly alter their daily life for a very remote possibility, like with everything else. Only immediate threat causes people to change, it's just human nature. Not just human actually, other animals do the same.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 01, 2020, 10:33:17 pm
Quote
But in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.
When it comes to dealing with  a risk of  a pandemic, a CEO of some "financial services company" will be the last person i am going to listen to.

Quote the whole thing : "Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz"

Then use Google : "Allianz SE is a European multinational financial services company headquartered in Munich, Germany. Its core businesses are insurance and asset management.  As of 2014, it is the world's largest insurance company". I know you all can sometimes be a bit parochial in the Great White North but I'd be a little surprised if the name of the World's largest insurer (that's been around since 1890) isn't common knowledge there.

Insurers know a thing or two about risk. The world's largest insurance company probably has quite a bit riding on the outcome of a possible pandemic. Ergo, their CEO is likely to be one of the best informed people in the world at the moment about the realistic risks this poses. Even if he is only worried about his bottom line, his information is quite likely to be the best and most comprehensive available.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 01, 2020, 11:32:28 pm
    When was the last time that a financial services company gave medical advice???  NEVER! 

     Companies like Alianz have a lot more at stake than just life insurance payouts and they're probably a lot more concerned about the loss of business to the entertainment parks, cruise lines and air lines, manufacturing companies and import and export companies and the like so, just considering their possible conflict of interest alone, I shouldn't won't trust their advice. In addition to having other possible interests, they are NOT in the medical profession so why in the hell would you even consider taking their advice??? 

   Just because they know something about risks, doesn't mean that they're going to tell you the truth. They're going to tell you what they think will save them money in the long run.

   One of the first rules of life that everyone should know: Consider the source! (and what's in it for them.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 01, 2020, 11:38:30 pm
  Yeap, and the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days. And France has jumped from 38 to 57. That's a 50% increase in the last two days! Anyone that understands anything about geometric progression knows where this is leading. Japan who has been treating this very serious for weeks now has had 20 new cases in the last 24 hours.  And China is still getting something like 500 new cases everyday, for weeks nows.

It's exactly that kind of thinking that leads people to panic rather than approach this rationally.

Firstly saying "the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days." as if that "22+%" means anything. That's the kind of percentage used by red top newspaper subeditors to make something out of nothing. Even the use of the emotive "jumped" instead of 'increased' or some other less loaded word is straight out of the same playbook. Why not go the whole hog and say 'soared'.

It sounds a lot less apocalyptic if you use a proper epidemiological basis and note that "the infection rate in Germany has risen from 0.059 people per 100,000 to 0.072 people per 100,000 in two days, an increase of 0.01 per 100,000 in two days". Eleven extra infections out of 83 million people is insignificant, from an infection rate of 0.000 059% of the population to 0.000 072% of the population. That's not an epidemic, it's an inconvenience. Over the same two days on average 18 people in Germany will have actually died on the roads (Rate 4.1 deaths per 100,000 per year). With the current estimate fatality rate for Covid-19 of 2-3%, that 11 extra infections amounts to only 1/3 of a death at most.

You say "Anyone that understands anything about geometric progression knows where this is leading" and yet two sentences later say "And China is still getting something like 500 new cases everyday, for weeks nows (sic).". Is an ongoing rate of 500 people per day a geometric progression? No, it it not. Rather, in the place most affected, for the longest time, where the spread pattern is likely to have settled into what's typical for the disease it is showing anything but a geometric growth rate of infection.

Even if that infection rate persisted in China, that means an extra 15 deaths a day, 5500 a year in a country with a population of 1.435 billion people. That would push the annualised death rate of China up by 0.383 per 100,000 from 711 per 100,000 to 711.38 per 100,000, a 0.1% increase.

Please folks, less histrionics. This disease is a legitimate health concern. It's a highly virulent variant of the common cold virus that has a much higher fatality rate than the standard virus (which nevertheless does kill some people each year). But with a fatality rate of 2-3% for people who actually get infected it is not going to wipe the world out, it is not even going to decimate it.

The level of precautions being taken at the moment to contain its spread will be quite adequate to ensure that in years to come hardly any of us will have tales to tell of the death of someone we knew due to Covid-19. I, and I suspect most of us apart from the very young, can tell tales of having friends taken from us by AIDS, motorcycles, motor cars, alcohol and cancer. Very few of you will be telling those tales about Covid-19. Be cautious, yes, but don't panic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 02, 2020, 08:21:26 am
It's exactly that kind of thinking that leads people to panic rather than approach this rationally.

Firstly saying "the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days." as if that "22+%" means anything. That's the kind of percentage used by red top newspaper subeditors to make something out of nothing. Even the use of the emotive "jumped" instead of 'increased' or some other less loaded word is straight out of the same playbook. Why not go the whole hog and say 'soared'.

I disagree - it makes sense to talk about % of population once equilibrium is found within the population (e.g with heart disease or sexually transmitted diseases), but not with a new emerging infectious disease.

In Wuhan cases were originally increasing at 40% day on day - at the time I was keeping a spreadsheet of the WHO Situation Report numbers and could predict them days in advance withing a +/- a few %.

Then very extensive measures were taken to reduce spread by reducing person to person contact, and build emergency medical facilities, on the 23rd Jan . For the next week the new cases per day still increased, then started to level off, then fell dramatically. The cause of this was those who were already exposed developing symptoms and seeking medical assistance.

(There was then the blip when the included clinical diagnosed cases, but the leveling off has continued, with now cases just trickling in).

The Wuhan lockdown have not yet been relaxed - the latest is "20 February 2020, the Chinese government has issued extension of order to shut down all non-essential companies, including manufacturing plants, and all schools in Hubei Province until at least 24:00 10 March"

To me, it seems to be a very unstable situation - any relaxation will cause a jump in cases in 14 days, but the lockdown cannot be in place indefinitely.

I would wager that Italy and the US will see double-digit day-on-day growth rate in cases until either lockdowns have been in place for a week or more, or more that 25% of the population have experienced the illness. The growth rate will vary country to country because of population density health systems, sanitation and so on, but without intervention it won't stop.

All you have to do is look at the Johns Hopkins graph on a log scale to see where this is going without meaningful intervention. Another week and there will be more cases outside China than inside (see attached image)

Oh, and reporting in the USA is so stuffed up for political and social reasons. Only the number of deaths will be reliable. At a guess I work backwards and say for every death there were 50 cases about 2 weeks ago, and this has increased at 20% day on day - I know it sounds fanciful, but there may be as many as 10,000 undiagnosed there! The USA really need to sort their testing out.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 02, 2020, 02:46:18 pm
All you have to do is look at the Johns Hopkins graph on a log scale to see where this is going without meaningful intervention. Another week and there will be more cases outside China than inside (see attached image)

Absolutely. You have a disease with a minimum 2 day period before people show symptoms (2-14 days before symptoms appear) and for at least part of that time they are infectious (infectious time versus infected time currently unknown). Uncontrolled that would indeed spread following a power law. However, there is intervention, worldwide, and it seems to be working.

Yes, it's a nasty disease. For some it has been a tragedy, but perspective is necessary. There have been around 5000 deaths worldwide at the time of writing. Currently daily it is killing less than malaria does, killing less than road traffic accidents do, killing less than the effects of war are in Yemen - all things that most of us are not even paying any attention to. Heck, there are probably more people dying daily in the developed world from the complications of obesity.

We need to respond to Covid-19, but we don't need to lose our heads. It's the old story of humans reacting to unfamiliar threats with exaggerated fear out of proportion to the threat while treating familiar threats with disdain. For most of us getting into our cars to drive to the shops is more likely to kill us this month than Covid-19 is but it's not causing people to panic buy and lock themselves up in their houses as some people have reacted to Covid-19.

It doesn't help that the disease first appeared in a slightly different tribe of bipedal monkeys, so our reactions are also loaded with our innate bipedal monkey xenophobia to other tribes as well. Not that any of the wise, rational people on here have ever exhibited an overreaction to that particular tribe like, say, saying that everything that tribe makes is crap, or counterfeit, or the product of mere copying. Oh no, we're thankfully all immune to that particular fallacy of thought.  :P

But seriously. The Chinese response to this has been quite amazing and they have taken measures at a speed and scale that has taken a lot of the brunt of dealing with this off the shoulders of other countries. It's down to the rest of the world to manage the relatively light load of carefully monitoring and quarantining of people leaving the affected area and returning to other parts of the world (possibly extending this if other hotspots appear). As long as the rest of us don't do something stupid* that encourages people to avoid/evade the necessary controls then we'll all be fine.

All that's needed on top is a system to manage and isolate any cases that have already slipped through the net. In the UK there's been adequate and reasonable public advice issued: if you get symptoms and have cause to believe it's Covid-19 stay home, phone the NHS helpline and you'll get help (at no cost to yourself).


* The US state department evacuated an American from Wuhan and then forced him and his family into quarantine. So far so good. BUT, he was then hit with a US hospital bill, at rapacious US hospital rates for the six days he was quarantined there, for which he is not insured. (For those not familiar with US hospital charging this will be at least a $1000 a day for each member of his family.) The hospital has since fixed this and is billing the government instead, BUT this is just the kind of thing that would encourage some people to evade controls. Further this from the same story:

Quote
The incident highlighted how the American government’s response to a public health emergency, like trying to contain a potential coronavirus epidemic, could be handicapped by relying on a system built around private hospitals and for-profit health insurance providers. Last month, a man in Miami who returned from a work trip to China feeling sick went to a hospital to be tested for coronavirus. The test came back negative, but his high-deductible health insurance provider told him he would have to pay at least $1,400, the Miami Herald reported, and provide three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got was not related to a preexisting condition. Without producing the records, he would owe $3,270 for getting tested.

Nothing beats a system set up to effectively punish people for being responsible as a means of encouraging them to be irresponsible.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 02, 2020, 11:12:18 pm

As long as the rest of us don't do something stupid* that encourages people to avoid/evade the necessary controls then we'll all be fine.

All that's needed on top is a system to manage and isolate any cases that have already slipped through the net. In the UK there's been adequate and reasonable public advice issued: if you get symptoms and have cause to believe it's Covid-19 stay home, phone the NHS helpline and you'll get help (at no cost to yourself).

But that's the problem - there are plenty of people who will ignore/evade the necessary controls. On a BBC Radio 2 phone-in today the issue of self isolation was being discussed. One caller said he could not afford the loss of income of self isolation so if he contracts the virus he will carry on working. Various others talked of the financial difficulties of self isolating (but didn't go as far as to admit on air that they might not self isolate if push came to shove).

I'm sure he's not alone, especially when people, such as my wife's work colleagues who are saying it's nothing to worry about; it's all hype, it only affects old people with underlying conditions (implying they are likely to die soon enough anyway?) and most people who get it have very mild to non-existent symptoms.

There were reports last week of many guests at the Tenerife hotel which was supposed to be in lockdown who blatently ignored instructions to stay in their rooms and wear masks otherwise and decided to continue their holiday poolside taking no precautionary measures.

You don't need many with these attitudes to guarantee widespread dissemination of the virus. I suspect there will be a lot like them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 12:59:41 am
Very good points from Cerebus and splin, above.

This is kinda off-topic, but this is exactly what I belive Nietsche meant when he said that God is dead.  You see, in the olden days, this kind of selfish behaviour ("keeping other people safe is too expensive for me, so I will risk their health instead of taking a financial hit") was controlled by fear of God, of divine punishment here or in the afterlife.  We don't have that, so we are finding it difficult to force people to behave in a way that minimizes the risk for the entire herd species people.  We have become self-centered and shellfish selfish, without the counterbalance an organized religion used to have.

It is also an excellent point that rather than to try and control others, we should try to instill in ourselves and our children that the best results are gained by controlling our own behaviour, rather than pushing others.  (We do not put ourselves in quarantine to protect us from those possibly infected, but to avoid spreading the infection, in case we ourselves happen to be infected.) It works in other fields of human interaction as well  :-*
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 03, 2020, 01:42:20 am
It's all hype in that it's not much different from the regular flu that goes around. I just looked it up today and in the USA the flu has killed 10,000 already this year, yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died.

We should take measures to prevent the spread of all infectious diseases, not just ignore it until the media hypes everyone into a frenzy over something like this. I think that ALL businesses should provide paid sick leave or the ability to work remotely when feasible for anyone who is sick. If someone shows up at the office visibly ill send them home! A place I used to work had no work from home policy and while we did get paid leave that was only for FTEs and we had a few hourly contractors who didn't. They would come in sick as hell, coughing and sneezing and a few days later half the office would be sick. Even FTEs would often come in sick, I guess due to a culture that views such things as indicating that one is a hard worker. It drives me nuts, the cost of paying one person to stay home and rest far outweighs the cost of paying 20 people to come in and get nothing done because they're miserable and ill.

People should also wash their hands properly, and take other sensible precautions. Instead we oscillate wildly between careless disregard and flailing around in a panicked frenzy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 03, 2020, 02:10:33 am
It's all hype in that it's not much different from the regular flu that goes around. I just looked it up today and in the USA the flu has killed 10,000 already this year, yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died.

Seriously??  :palm:

Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc. So no need to worry!

A doctor on the radio (here in the UK) the other day pointed out that the infection rate was around double that of regular flu, and approximately 10 times the death rate of regular flu (not to be confused with non-regular flu such as the post first world war Spanish flu). He also pointed out that his intensive care unit is typically 60% occupied by flu patients in the winter; I expect the NHS is going to be in major crisis before too long despite lots of complacent reassurances from politicians and even some senior scientists. I really hope they are right.

I rather think you're "yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died" is going to look very foolish in a few months time. Though I really hope you are right.

Given the relatively high mortatality rate in the elderly, you have to wonder how the UK's house of Lords and the US senate might look in a year's time...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 03, 2020, 03:08:13 am
It's all hype in that it's not much different from the regular flu that goes around. I just looked it up today and in the USA the flu has killed 10,000 already this year, yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died.

The salient difference is that 0.095% of people who contract 'ordinary' seasonal flu die from it (the case-mortality ratio), 2-3% of people who contract covid-19 die from it - that's a case-mortality ratio 21-31 times higher. So if that 10,000 deaths from flu in the US was deaths from covid-19 at similar infection rates you'd be looking at 210,000 to 310,000 deaths in the US. That is why infection control measures are necessary beyond those that would be taken for typical seasonal flu outbreaks. Also remember that for seasonal flu there is some existing specific immunity in the population that helps to control the spread (herd immunity), there is no existing herd immunity for a novel virus like covid-19 so the number of cases is likely to be significantly higher than for seasonal flu.

The case-mortality ratio of covid-19 is about the same as that of the 'Spanish' flu virus of 1918. That's why we need to take it seriously and thankfully we are, with infection control measures being put in place world wide. But at the same time we must not be Chicken Littles and run around panicking -  those infection control measures are working, if they weren't we'd already be knee deep in cases of covid-19 worldwide. That is no excuse however for complacency or carelessness, we need to continue with infection control measures until well after the number of new cases reported starts falling.

Just take you own reasonable precautions. The most important thing you can do is wash your hands if you've been out in public handling things that others may have and avoid hand to face contact - don't rub your eyes, pick your nose, chew your nails or smoke (an often missed cause of hand to mouth contact) with unwashed hands. I'd suggest that it might be good to avoid airports if you can, large dense gatherings of people are possibly risky, hospitals and schools are always places to avoid if you don't want to catch something that's 'going around'. Avoid the office if you have idiots around who insist on coming into work when they are ill. But nothing's stopping you going to the shops, taking a walk in the park or generally following a mostly normal routine.

And remember to boil all children, nurses and doctors before petting them.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 03:23:21 am
Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc.
I read his post in a completely different vein!  Weird, eh.

That's how flu epidemics start, too.  Thing is, flu is dangerous.  A lot of people die from it.  A lot, if not most, of those deaths could be avoided by early voluntary isolation (to isolate symptom-free infected carriers, stopping the spread).  We don't, and I find that utterly stupid; similar to driving against traffic lights.

Covid-19 is very flu-like.  Like for influenza viruses, there are no known antiviral treatments.  There are vaccines for the three main influenza variants, but their efficacy varies; and sometimes the variant is a different one than actually spreads most.  Covid-19 seems to spread a little slower, but with a longer incubation period, and have a higher mortality rate (as it tends to stress kidneys more in patients who get seriously ill).  The differences are quite minor, really.

Yes, it is a different virus.  Yes, both will kill a large number of people, albeit a very small fraction of the population; nothing like the black death in the middle ages (which killed about 45% of Europe's population in five years or so), or the Spanish Flu in early 1900s (which killed about 2.4% of humans on Earth).  It has been too long since the last really bad flu epidemic, I guess, since people are freaking so bad right now.

Because of the low likelihood of death for any particular individual, infected or not, there is no need to panic.  Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet; way too many for an ordinary human to understand or grasp in any intuitive manner.  (We can "feel" amounts up to a couple of thousand, but above that, we abstract, and instead count groups of humans.)

In particular, the overall death toll from covid-19 will almost certainly be no different than a bad flu season; at most at the level of pandemic expected to occur from one of the influenza viruses every three decades or so.  All the statistics bear the signs of that (since we can very simply compare them to old ones, except that we now have better information networks and much more data).

Also, the Chinese response to the virus is rather exemplary.  I do not know why they reacted so strongly, but it definitely was effective.  In the coming weeks, we will see that the number of deaths in Europe will be much higher, because of the ideological/political opposition to any sort of borders or restriction on movements -- that is my guess and bet.  I estimate we are only in the second week of the infected but symptomless carriers spreading the virus, so the true spike in cases will be a week to three weeks away still.  If that does happen, we know from the Chinese example that it could have been avoided.  Hopefully I'm completely wrong, though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 03, 2020, 03:49:37 am
The Chinese response is probably down to previous experience with SARS (also a coronavirus) back in 2002-2003 - a rare example of a political entity learning from history.

SARS (http://SARS) is an interesting exemplar for what is happening at the moment. In 2002 the UK implemented screening at UK airports and if necessary quarantine. The UK had a grand total of 4 confirmed reported SARS cases (the Chinese, the hardest hit, 5000+ cases for comparison). The UK is responding similarly this time around and at the moment the UK has had 39 cases of covid-19 recorded and China 80,000 - ratios of 1:1250 (SARS) and 1:2000 (covid-19), not wildly dissimilar. If the similarities keep up then sorry Canada you're in for a bad time (251 SARS cases in 2002-2003, 29 covid-19 cases so far).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 03, 2020, 04:43:17 am
Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet;

Ready to write this on your loved one's tombstone if they die from the virus ?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 03, 2020, 04:52:51 am
Just a minor quibble.

COVID-19 is the illness/disease

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 05:13:14 am
Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet;
Ready to write this on your loved one's tombstone if they die from the virus ?
Why not?  They will die eventually anyway; it is only a matter of when.  So will I.  Do you not realize this?

(As a matter of fact, I would like to be disposed of in the manner shown in the 1996 movie Fargo (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0116282/); with my frozen body fed through a woodchipper.  It is better than burning, because the heavy metals accumulated in my body would be spread around rather than released into the atmosphere.  Unfortunately, all my siblings and friends have absolutely refused to do it, probably because it would be rather messy.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 05:15:09 am
Just a minor quibble.

COVID-19 is the illness/disease

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19
That makes as much sense as calling the virus HIV and the illness/disease AIDS.  Because of the distinction, lots of people are dead (because they claimed the two are unrelated).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am
Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc.
I read his post in a completely different vein!  Weird, eh.

Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post?

Quote
In particular, the overall death toll from covid-19 will almost certainly be no different than a bad flu season; at most at the level of pandemic expected to occur from one of the influenza viruses every three decades or so.  All the statistics bear the signs of that (since we can very simply compare them to old ones, except that we now have better information networks and much more data).

Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture. No flu season has come anywhere near to the 1918 pandemic; the only other 'pandemics' in the 1957/8 and 1968/9 outbreaks were very much less severe with death rates being not much different to typical years at 0.1%, compared to the 1918 pandemic at around 2%. Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.

I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.

Quote
In the coming weeks, we will see that the number of deaths in Europe will be much higher, because of the ideological/political opposition to any sort of borders or restriction on movements -- that is my guess and bet.  I estimate we are only in the second week of the infected but symptomless carriers spreading the virus, so the true spike in cases will be a week to three weeks away still.  If that does happen, we know from the Chinese example that it could have been avoided.  Hopefully I'm completely wrong, though.

I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread. So far the only measures happening are the reduction in flights declared by Ryan Air and British Airways to Italy and other places, but only because of reducing demand. (The bold move by the US restricting flights excepted). As far as the UK government is concerned, it seems the masterplan is to hope for warm weather to slow the spread to a rate that the hospitals can cope with.

The population will eventually 'get it' and start to cooperate to tackle the spread but I very much doubt it will happen anytime soon. Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 06:36:11 am
Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post?
As emphasizing that flu is deadly too, we just ignore it because we're overdue (according to virologists/epidemiologists) for a really bad flu variant, and haven't had a really bad one in a century.  The "thrice a century" isn't just last century, you know.

Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture.
I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability.

Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.
It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods.  Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age.  It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet.

I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.
Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country?

I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread.
Perhaps "spike" was the wrong word, and "step function" would have described it better, but words are hard.  (To me, "data spiking up" refers to a sudden rise, typical for initially exponential data, but does not necessarily mean the data also drops down as fast, only that the rise is fast with at least a small peak.)

As I see it, it is just how a single-point infection spreads when not hindered by quarantines.  Remember, most of the spread occurs when the carriers are asymptomatic.  When they get visibly ill, they're already about midpoint of the illness, typically; only the rare ones (< 20% of infected) who get severely ill or die, actually suffer longer.  Again, the absolute majority will weather it quite well, with just mild flu-like symptoms.

We know of at least one infection center in Northern Italy, which was released (by letting infected tourists back home) about a week to two weeks ago.
If my understanding of the situation is correct, these carriers have infected a large number of others on their way home, with basically an exponential initial growth.  This is common and typical in early stages.  We don't know about these people, because only people showing symptoms are tested.

Because the spread occurred in a relatively short time, with the spreaders having potentially contact to many other people on their way home, the number of transmitted cases is likely very large.  These asymptomatic carriers will infect others before their own symptoms will be visible, meaning the infection at this stage is spreading at a geometric or exponential rate.  Most of those who are likely to contract the virus, have already contacted it in most European cities at this point, I'm guessing.

The reason it is a spike, or will level out like capped by a ceiling, like a step function, is twofold.  One is that most of the people who will get infected, are already infected at that point.  The other is that most of the infected will get well, so the number of infected will eventually drop.  It won't be a needle-like spike, but more like a step function with a exponential rise, followed by a much slower gradual decrease.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 03, 2020, 01:15:55 pm
For those who believes in WHO, a 40 pages report by the WHO team who visited China on 16-24 February 2020.

-> Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf) (PDF file)


At the Assessment section, these paragraphs, imo, has interesting situation from the WHO observation ...

"Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.  At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities.  Despite ongoing outbreaks in their own areas, Governors and Mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city.

At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction.  They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures – whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel.  Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, Governors and Mayors, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response.
"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rf-loop on March 03, 2020, 02:38:30 pm
Also, the Chinese response to the virus is rather exemplary.  I do not know why they reacted so strongly, but it definitely was effective.

I can very easy think why China reacted so strongly. It was not even enough strongly and fast, but it need understand that decisions have made using knowledge what was available at this time and not with afterwards available knowledge. I have lived here now some time and followed quite tightly all things related to this (and also lived with SARS-CoV-2 around me and keeping it away from me). Only small difficulty is chinese language because my on next step of protection, now need faith against virus spread what is coming from outside to China as )one small example) last some cases in Zhejiang from EU (and same time keep care that Hubei do not leak to other parts of China.)
But, first bio war against virus is going end and over 96% of China is quite clean. China without Hubei confirmed current cases under 1.4ppm (peak was 6,7ppm) in population. In Wuhan alone at this time confirmed current cases around 2180ppm. (peak was 3454ppm, more slow decay due to communal spread of virus there) We can think what happen without strong intervention for attenuate speed of escalation and try to some isolation, just for think dimensions, 3454ppm in whole China is 4,9Mppl. If 20% get severe COVID-19 disease it is neary 1Mppl.   Without this strong and quite fast intervention... All know what it mean if this happen.  We know how Wuhan was in most bad days... if Wuhan have xx% from whole PLA medical human resources and still it it need lot of nurses and doctors from other prefectures. So, thank they start this strong and fast war against virus.



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 03, 2020, 02:56:56 pm
Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.

You don't know your own countries 'dictatorial powers' well enough. Check out the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the Emergency Powers Act 1964. In case of an 'emergency' the government can grant itself pretty much any power and suspend pretty much any existing law that it wants to. Most 'democracies' have some such set of dictatorial powers lurking on the books.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 03, 2020, 03:40:36 pm
I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability.

Maybe but we aren't looking at .1% differences are we? Other than regular flu having a well understood death rate of around .1%

Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher. There are no 0.1% differences here.

Quote
Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.
It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods.

"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. The best current estimates from health professionals and scientists is that it is around twice as infectious. No doubt that will get revised as better statistics become available with increasing numbers.

I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.

Quote
  Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age.  It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet.

So what? That's still 800% higher than regular flu. And why be selective with the figures? What about the elderly with much higher mortality rates? Don't you care about them? Accurate numbers will become available in due course but it seems clear that they are much higher than 'regular' flu.

Quote
I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.
Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country?

Yes, but they just about cope, ususally. It's not uncommon for non emergency procedures to get postponed to accomodate more serious flu outbreaks, but it's likely to be as nothing compared to a serious epidemic of ncov-19 "as evidenced" by China having to build a whole new temporary hospital to handle the large numbers of acute patients. I doubt they've ever done that for 'regular flu' outbreaks.

Quote
Most of those who are likely to contract the virus, have already contacted it in most European cities at this point, I'm guessing.

Hardly. 'Experts' here in the UK are expecting it to peak by around June. Its barely started yet. The UK government seem to be preparing for up to 80% of the population to catch the virus - but are hoping for good weather to slow it down to reduce pressure on the health services.

Maybe the public can yet be persuaded to adopt harsh isolation measures to limit its spread but I think too many people are too selfish these days for this to work. The days of the wartime spirit with everybody doing their bit for the common good seem to be long gone. I hope I've misjudged the public.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 03, 2020, 03:44:35 pm
Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.

You don't know your own countries 'dictatorial powers' well enough. Check out the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the Emergency Powers Act 1964. In case of an 'emergency' the government can grant itself pretty much any power and suspend pretty much any existing law that it wants to. Most 'democracies' have some such set of dictatorial powers lurking on the books.

Yup. We have actually used this extensively over here a few years back when there had been a wave of terrorist attacks, and some of the dispositions from the "state of emergency", when it was finally ended, eventually made it to the general laws. Did all this cause some heavy discussions over here? Yup it did. Was the government not able to proceed due to people's concerns though? Nope.

Similar things happened in the USA back in early 2000's (also due to terrorism), and it had lasting effects.

Those powers are not just lurking. They are effectively used, and more often than you think.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 09:01:09 pm
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?  As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

You obviously have no experience with noisy data, because at these scales comparing such small numbers with such high noise has huge error bars, "1 to 2 thousand percent higher" being as accurate as "enormous" or "tiny".  Essentially, the error bars at these scales are larger than the values themselves.  You can make statistical predictions based on them, but their reliability is very poor.

This is a perfect example of a dataset where your numbers are from a biased subset.  The apparent numbers do not reflect the true characteristics.

"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. [...]
I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.
Ah, you are the type that goes "that's too daft, as I'm pretty certain".  I apologise for mistaking you for someone who considers things in a rational analytical fashion, instead of just going by the feel of your pants.

This is the first time the spread of an infectitious disease seems to have been completely stopped by quarantining the affected regions.  You might be pretty certain of whatever you like, but history shows us neither European countries nor Northern America has managed that yet.  Thus far, serious disease has only been managed through vaccination programs only.  We know quarantine works, and epidemiologists have been talking about self-imposed quarantines as an effective method for these viral outbreaks for decades; average westerners have just ignored their advice completely, and keep sneering at Asians wearing breathing masks (whose intent is not to protect themselves from infection, but from spreading possible infection to others; this seems a concept too hard to understand for many).

Yes, but they just about cope, ususally.
Be careful, you're waving your hands so hard you might start flying.

Are you sure you're not trying to explain things according to your own fixed internal model, instead of looking at the various possibilities that could explain the phenomena we are seeing?  I am trying to do the latter (because I am painfully aware of my internal tendencies to do the former, and absolutely hate it when it happens: it feels to me like getting lost because of being too lazy to look at the map often enough), and have pretty consistently described these as my current opinion.  I could be wrong -- and do feel free to disagree, I and others here value the viewpoints -- but when you start saying things like "that's too daft to even laugh at" followed by "I'm pretty certain that" you sound like having to question your own beliefs or understanding is your worst fear.  It shouldn't be; it is best to be your own advocatus diaboli, to inspect the roots of your beliefs and understanding, to find out where you truly stand.

As an example of weaknesses in my own understanding, I really do not know how dangerous this situation is, because we really do not know the true number of infected.  We know the lower bound, from people admitted to hospitals, but we have no reliable detection method, so the number of infected but with minor symptomps could be huge.  In fact, the scariest scenario is that there are actually more than one virus involved here, possibly describing the reinfection cases.  (The worst case scenario still is that the mutation rate is so high that human immune systems cannot keep up with it; this also makes any sort of effective vaccine highly unlikely.)

If anyone asks me how dangerous this is, I can only say truthfully "I don't know", or lie.  I just don't have anything to correlate this with.  So, instead, I just live with it, knowing that this epidemic or something like it will repeat at least once more in my lifetime, and I will then be even more susceptible (due to age) than I am now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 04, 2020, 12:16:37 am
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?  As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

Where do you get your numbers from? That R0 number is very freely available, from various studies - eg:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30091-6/fulltext (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30091-6/fulltext)

Of cause R0 varies depending on where you measure it, a jail or hospital is different from a subway or a isolated tropical island.

The 'reliable test available' is more of a people/political thing than a technology thing. in some countries they are being actively used. South Korea have been doing 2,138 test per million people. Finland have done 23 test per million people, and USA less than 2 - but now they have withdrawn the numbers.. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/)

Apart from the CDC fiasco, false negatives in are mainly due to the samples not having enough RNA material to amplify, not due to failures of the test kits.

Rumor has it that the first positive test in the rest home was by a researcher who made their own test, as they couldn't get one through the CDC.

If the testing is unreliable (with lots of false negatives) then the actual R0 must be higher that indicated through testing... so you've shot yourself in the foot. Or are you saying it has false positives?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: chickadee on March 04, 2020, 12:17:46 am
Ok, just a little bit of hilarity from the AP news:

https://apnews.com/dcd130364f2bbec8142d0ae47f805cba (https://apnews.com/dcd130364f2bbec8142d0ae47f805cba)

So basically the USA media needs to be negative and sensational about everything, so this is what they came up with...

Meanwhile, in the same few days, well over 10,000 (and likely closer to 20,000-30,000!) Americans died from other things - traffic fatalities, abortions, diseases induced by all the plastics in humans bodies and other pollutants from the environment...  But this is old news to them and you won't even find it on the last page   :-//

I don't know when journalism died, but it must have been a while ago  :-\
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 04, 2020, 12:39:16 am
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html (https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)

Quote
Virus transmission

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19.  Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science

Also:

https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa021/5735319 (https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa021/5735319)

Quote
Our review found the average R0 to be 3.28 and median to be 2.79, which exceed WHO estimates from 1.4 to 2.5. The studies using stochastic and statistical methods for deriving R0 provide estimates that are reasonably comparable. However, the studies using mathematical methods produce estimates that are, on average, higher. Some of the mathematically derived estimates fall within the range produced the statistical and stochastic estimates. It is important to further assess the reason for the higher R0 values estimated by some the mathematical studies. For example, modelling assumptions may have played a role. In more recent studies, R0 seems to have stabilized at around 2–3. R0 estimations produced at later stages can be expected to be more reliable, as they build upon more case data and include the effect of awareness and intervention. It is worthy to note that the WHO point estimates are consistently below all published estimates, although the higher end of the WHO range includes the lower end of the estimates reviewed here.

Quote
As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

A bit arrogant don't you think? You don't just suppose the professionals and experts in the field and within the WHO might not be aware of that? Of course I don't know if you are one such expert with in depth access to the raw data and computer models used to normalise the data to account for many confounding factors - noise as you suggest. If so I must apologise of course.

Quote
You obviously have no experience with noisy data, because at these scales comparing such small numbers with such high noise has huge error bars, "1 to 2 thousand percent higher" being as accurate as "enormous" or "tiny".

Rubbish. I'm not an expert in statistics but I understand the concepts well enough. What 'small numbers' are you talking about? The death rate for regular flu is widely published as 0.1% by various reputable bodies, based on very large data sets so the value should be pretty reliable and the error bars small.

The death rate for Ncov-19 is less reliable but the datasets are still pretty large given official numbers of cases exceeding 80,000. The number of deaths are known pretty reliably so the error bars for the 'death rate for known cases' will be small and varies for different locations and will change over time as the virus mutates and/or the virus loading of infected individuals varies as the weather changes etc.

The adjusted numbers, for those projected to have or have had the virus but not included in the official case numbers are where the noise/uncertainty comes in and will no doubt be quite large but will not change the obeservation that Ncov-19 has a much higher death rate than flu, with rates, published by reputable bodies, in the range 8 to 35 times that of flu.

I'm sure, if I could be bothered, I could find published papers that provide reliable estimates of the uncertainties. I can't so I am happy to rely on the the published numbers as being reasonable. If Ncov-19 has the same death rate as regular flu that would mean they have had nearly 3 million cases compared to the official figure of 80,000. If so I would suggest that would be almost impossible to hide and the spread would be completely out of control.

Quote
Essentially, the error bars at these scales are larger than the values themselves.  You can make statistical predictions based on them, but their reliability is very poor.

What scales are you talking about? The scale, as in the death rate and infection rate itself has very little to do with reliability that is determined by the sample size which needs to be statisically significant - which is certainly the case for these figures

Quote
This is a perfect example of a dataset where your numbers are from a biased subset.  The apparent numbers do not reflect the true characteristics.

Again, unless you have access to the actual data etc. I don't see how you can possibly make any claims about the reliabilty or uncertainty of the published numbers. Really, since you are the one making the claim that the 'official' numbers are unreliable then the onus is on you to provide some evidence.

Quote

"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. [...]
I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.
Ah, you are the type that goes "that's too daft, as I'm pretty certain".  I apologise for mistaking you for someone who considers things in a rational analytical fashion, instead of just going by the feel of your pants.

Ok, I apologise for being flipant, but there comes a point when there's little point continuing the discussion when it descends into, what one party or the other considers to be absurdity and I made that judgement. I try to keep an open mind and 'consider things in a rational analytical fashion' but your "as evidenced by" claim definately crossed the threshold where I considered that further discussion is pointless. Your suggestion is nothing but a hypothesis and certainly does not provide any evidence, any more than the lunar landing deniers present lots of 'evidence'.

Quote
This is the first time the spread of an infectitious disease seems to have been completely stopped by quarantining the affected regions.  You might be pretty certain of you like, but history shows us neither European countries nor Northern America has managed that yet.

I'm definately no expert in this area but I would suggest that Ebola, SARs, MERs were stopped by human intervention but they were likely much less transmissable. Plenty of animal infections have been stopped by quarantining - eg. foot and mouth disease in the UK. Quarantining is a proven method for stopping the spread of disease if applied sufficiently rigorously.

In the case of China's effective quaranting of Ncov-19, I would further suggest it is the
only time it has ever been applied on a large scale outbreak so you cannot draw any conclusions about the transmissivity of Ncov-19 compared to flu based on this one outcome. Statistically absolutely insignificant.

Quote
  Thus far, serious disease has only been managed through vaccination programs only.  We know quarantine works, and epidemiologists have been talking about self-imposed quarantines as an effective method for these viral outbreaks for decades; average westerners have just ignored their advice completely, and keep sneering at Asians wearing breathing masks (whose intent is not to protect themselves from infection, but from spreading possible infection to others; this seems a concept too hard to understand for many).

I think we are  largely in agreement here.

Quote
Yes, but they just about cope, ususally.
Be careful, you're waving your hands so hard you might start flying.

I've really no idea what you are trying to say here. I just checked and my hands definately aren't waving. How about addressing what I said? Do you believe that Western and Chinese health services haven't managed to cope reasonably well with previous flu outbreaks, albeit if considerably stretched on occasion?

Do you really believe that hospitals in China were not seriously overwhelmed by Ncov-19  cases on a much bigger scale than any flu outbreak in the last fifty years or so?

For the avoidance of doubt I believe that the impact of Ncov-19 on hospitals in China was very much worse than any recent flu and expect that western hospitals will be equally badly affected if the transmision rate isn't slowed by warmer weather.

Quote
Are you sure you're not trying to explain things according to your own fixed internal model, instead of looking at the various possibilities that could explain the phenomena we are seeing?  I am trying to do the latter (because I am painfully aware of my internal tendencies to do the former, and absolutely hate it when it happens: it feels to me like getting lost because of being too lazy to look at the map often enough), and have pretty consistently described these as my current opinion.  I could be wrong -- and do feel free to disagree, I and others here value the viewpoints -- but when you start saying things like "that's too daft to even laugh at" followed by "I'm pretty certain that" you sound like having to question your own beliefs or understanding is your worst fear.  It shouldn't be; it is best to be your own advocatus diaboli, to inspect the roots of your beliefs and understanding, to find out where you truly stand.

I'm sorry but I can't muster the energy to try and comprehend the above philosophy. I'm taking a simple view and don't pretend to have any special knowledge of the disease - I'm simply observing its rapid spread and noting official death rates.

I conclude that as no significant measures have, as yet, been put into place to control movements to and from infection hotspots, especially Italy, that the virus is now out of control and a large percentage of the world population will contract the disease.

The spread hopefully will slow down as the public eventually reacts to the danger and modifies its behaviour. Given claims today that privately contracted staff working in NHS hospitals (eg. cleaners) will continue to work when infected because they won't get sick pay, doesn't give me much hope.
 
Quote
As an examples,  of weaknesses in my own understanding, I really do not know how dangerous this situation is, because we really do not know the true number of infected.  We know the lower bound, from people admitted to hospitals, but we have no reliable detection method, so the number of infected but with minor symptomps could be huge.  In fact, the scariest scenario is that there are actually more than one virus involved here, possibly describing the reinfection cases.  (The worst case scenario still is that the mutation rate is so high that human immune systems cannot keep up with it; this also makes any sort of effective vaccine highly unlikely.)

If anyone asks me how dangerous this is, I can only say truthfully "I don't know", or lie.  I just don't have anything to correlate this with.  So, instead, I just live with it, knowing that this epidemic or something like it will repeat at least once more in my lifetime, and I will then be even more susceptible (due to age) than I am now.

"I just live with it" or die with it perhaps. Let's hope not. I'm not personally interested in speculating about the possibilities of further mutations or the possibility of multiple viruses. There is enough to worry about as there is.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 04, 2020, 01:32:00 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA8XYSftmtQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA8XYSftmtQ)
Interesting to note that the deaths correlated most to other medical problems and smoking.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 04, 2020, 01:44:13 am
We have several people now in hospitals in my area (Toronto) with coronavirus:

https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/ (https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/)

The situation is only getting worse. Our most recent cases are from people who visited Iran, and I believe one went through Egypt. Anyways, I've heard from quite a few people I bumped into just in the last few days that the local Costco (large warehouse-sized superstore for those who don't know) was *VERY* busy with huge line ups and so on... WHY????

At first one might think people are in panic mode and clearing the shelves of essentials, waiting for the oncoming Zombie apocalypse. It turns out the huge line-ups are due to Costco implementing some new protocol where EVERY SHOPPING CART entering the store gets a Lysol wipe-down and everyone is getting their hands sprayed/sanitized or something like that.... So it is creating line-ups.

Second issue is with store shelves being depleted not due to panic buying, but lack of STOCK arriving from overseas. Walmart is likely to experience the same... As the shipping-container industry grinds to a halt, many workers in China not available to load ships or ships being held in ports for longer times. So it is creating a backlog of shipments and goods which for the most part in these stores comes from China.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 04, 2020, 01:48:19 am
Interesting to note that the deaths correlated most to other medical problems and smoking.

Not wishing to be flippant, but that's a commonplace. Upper repository tract viral infections (which covers Coronavirus, Flu and some others) typically have worse outcomes in the very old, the very young and people with pre-existing respiratory medical conditions (asthma, COAD/COPD/emphysema*, smoking related COAD, industrially acquired COADS) or respiratory insufficiency from other medical conditions (heart and circulatory problems, etc). SARS was an odd one out as the killer element of SARS seems to have been it triggering a 'cytokine storm' in the immune system and that is more likely to happen to the otherwise most fit individuals - SARS fatality rate was highest in the 15-30 age group, the group that normally has the highest survival rate from this class of infections.


* The bloody name keeps changing. Chronic Bronchitis => Emphysema => Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease => Chronic Obstructive Airway Disease
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 04, 2020, 02:33:02 am
We have several people now in hospitals in my area (Toronto) with coronavirus:

https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/ (https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/)

The situation is only getting worse. Our most recent cases are from people who visited Iran, and I believe one went through Egypt. Anyways, I've heard from quite a few people I bumped into just in the last few days that the local Costco (large warehouse-sized superstore for those who don't know) was *VERY* busy with huge line ups and so on... WHY????

At first one might think people are in panic mode and clearing the shelves of essentials, waiting for the oncoming Zombie apocalypse. It turns out the huge line-ups are due to Costco implementing some new protocol where EVERY SHOPPING CART entering the store gets a Lysol wipe-down and everyone is getting their hands sprayed/sanitized or something like that.... So it is creating line-ups.

Second issue is with store shelves being depleted not due to panic buying, but lack of STOCK arriving from overseas. Walmart is likely to experience the same... As the shipping-container industry grinds to a halt, many workers in China not available to load ships or ships being held in ports for longer times. So it is creating a backlog of shipments and goods which for the most part in these stores comes from China.

There is panic buying going on too, according to staff at the local supermarket....  (east coast USA)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 04, 2020, 04:01:26 am
Trying to beat the stampede is not panic, it's rational.

The end effect of rational decisions might be undesirable on a larger scale but who the hell wants to be stuck with shitty toilet paper? Better stock up on 3-ply now.

PS. not even kidding ...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 04, 2020, 04:20:51 am
Who thinks Dave needs to do a teardown....

https://wsvn.com/news/local/pompano-beach-companys-air-cleansing-invention-in-high-demand/

I have a feeling things like this are gonna be coming out of the woodwork...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: jonovid on March 04, 2020, 04:54:24 am
interesting how some people are more concerned about wiping their ass!  than if they have enough food or water  :palm:

all them people that make fun of survivalism, preppers, doom's-dayers. no they are not paranoid.
how many people have solar panels on the roof but its not an off grid system. useless in a power-outage.
have rainwater downpipes but no water tank. gravel garden but no vegetables.

what maybe biological warfare Coronavirus is a Pandemic! but no body saying so for now, 
no body's calling Pandemic for now because of the US 2020 Presidential Race , & other sacred cows like the Olympics!
 like a type of human myxomatosis to control global populations. Eugenics  them that believe the world is overpopulated.
if it was just anther Ebola it would have ended by now.  this is something 10x more deadly!  :scared:
the panic will come for them that fear the reaper.   Plague is nothing new.   as most pandemics in human history
the worlds human population will recover from this hit.

insects animals & aircraft all can spread a pandemic
I note a large plague of locusts muching their way from  Ethiopia, in the Horn of Africa all the way up-to China,
locusts grasshoppers according to my grandfather, when in plague swarm will eat anything & everything green,
even eating the green paint on blinding s. then dying on mass.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 04, 2020, 07:39:02 am
In situations like this, one will be better off if hungry but kept his ass clean.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marck on March 04, 2020, 10:05:08 am
I have been casually watching and reading the daily WHO situation reports (this is to avoid the media hype).  One thing I have noticed and is by no means a fact or mathematical just very casual observation but the point of rapid increases is case numbers seems to trigger in each reported region when the new cases per day gets to about 30 percent of total cases and seems to roughly stabilise at that rate.  The exception to this was wuhan itself when the confirmed cases seemed to level off at about 3-4K but I think that was where they hit the limit of their daily diagnostic capability. 

Here in Australia people are just being dumb.  I have no issues with people doing what they think is best for themselves and their family.  The first 2 things you could not find was hand sanitiser and face masks.  The sanitiser I get but the advice is that face masks are not a recommendation for control of transmission unless you are sick and trying to prevent transmitting the virus to others.
And now toilet paper panic buying. 

I gave this whole situation some thought (I am not a prepper of any kind I have trouble having enough socks to last a week).  My shopping list based on the fact that everyone in my home is below 50 and otherwise healthy. 

200 paracetamol tablets and 200 ibuprofen tablets and a dozen bars of soap. So if the virus makes its way into our home and the outbreak is at the point where only the very sick will be hospitalised at least I will be able to treat the aches and pains and maybe control the fever for the couple of weeks to a month we could be unwell if we don’t get sick enough to make it to hospital.  And even then I feel I could be overreacting.

But I have given the kids a strict hygiene plan to implement now so it’s in practice if (when?) numbers start increasing here. 

And that’s just washing hands in every change in environment train - school. Break-class things like that.

I have told them that if numbers here start to climb that they have the go ahead to remove themselves from any situation where someone is unwell.  Be it class or the train and they can Uber home whatever. 

Personally I think this thing is in the wild and there will be no containment.  And focus now will be controlling the spread so that the medical systems can cope and not explode and all but cripple the healthcare system. 

And with any luck we will keep it out of our home and make it to the point a vaccine hits the market and get around it that way. 


But I was one of the lucky ones that got H1N1 with no traceability for its source and after the point where they where trying to contain it. My doc just sent me home with a course of tamiflu where I was quarantined to my room and my wife just left supplies outside the door and I would give reports on myself via text message incase I got really sick.  We managed to avoid passing it from me to her.

And I can tell you with that one I actually wanted to die. And no signs of running out of TP. 

M

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 04, 2020, 10:11:55 am
The sanitiser I get but the advice is that face masks are not a recommendation for control of transmission unless you are sick and trying to prevent transmitting the virus to others.

Can't agree. Without everyone putting masks on everyday when they go outside, China case count would explode in every city.
Mainstream medias urge not to use masks only because there are not enough capability to manufacture them. In a few weeks when production has ramped up worldwide, medias will report differently.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rerouter on March 04, 2020, 10:33:25 am
Can confirm Australia now has mass panic buying aswell, couldn't help but laugh seeing every bit of paper out of stock, even serving napkins....

Pain is they also bought out all the pet food... luckily all the grass is seeding, so able to handle for the next few weeks with a few walks by the nearby park and greenways for my birds,

yet all the non-perishable foods left untouched, even things like cereals which are easy to keep, and energy dense, almost fully stocked... It puzzles me
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marck on March 04, 2020, 10:54:56 am
This could very well be the case I am not a medical professional so I can’t argue the point.  I will be watching the WHO and Australian government guidelines with interest.  If that is indeed the strategy behind the no mask required policy it will be interesting if there is any fallout.

Probably no fallout here in Australia because we are so apathetic unless we are worried about running out of toilet paper.

M
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 04, 2020, 01:19:38 pm
if it was just anther Ebola it would have ended by now.  this is something 10x more deadly!  :scared:
It's definitely nowhere as deadly as Ebola, in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 04, 2020, 01:34:03 pm
in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.

It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates-vary-wildly-depending-on-age-gender-and-medical-history-some-patients-fare-much-worse-than-others-2020-02-26 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates-vary-wildly-depending-on-age-gender-and-medical-history-some-patients-fare-much-worse-than-others-2020-02-26)

Quote
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, delivered new fatality rates for COVID-19 at a press conference Tuesday
Getty Images
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died, WHO says.

As the COVID-19 spreads, scientists are learning more about the disease’s fatality rate.

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, said at a press briefing in Geneva. That’s more than previous estimates that hovered around 2% and the influenza fatality rate of less than 1%.

Tedros said last week the fatality rate in Wuhan, China, considered the epicenter of the outbreak, is between 2% and 4%. Outside of Wuhan, it is thought to be closer to 0.7%, although some estimates put it at closer to 2%. The epidemic is “affecting countries in different ways,” he added.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 04, 2020, 03:44:46 pm
interesting how some people are more concerned about wiping their ass!  than if they have enough food or water  :palm:

It's unlikely a pandemic could disrupt the water supply ... it would have to be apocalyptic.

People running on toilet paper was happening in Japan and it was entirely predictable that that would be contagious after it was reported in the news.

PS. a small silver lining, the virus is accelerating some medical trials like intravenous vitamin C. Hope it works out, just lost someone to pneumonia he got from an unrelated hospital stay. Would be nice to have more therapies, especially one so cheap.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 04, 2020, 03:57:16 pm
Individuals don't care about statistics.
It's also vice versa.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 04, 2020, 04:32:27 pm
in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.

It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.

Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 04, 2020, 05:08:46 pm
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 04, 2020, 06:06:30 pm
India has found a cure for Covid !

https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/ (https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 04, 2020, 06:11:05 pm
India has found a cure for Covid !

https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/ (https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/)

I don't know where to get cow piss, but I know where to get Calpis (rebranded as Calpico in English speaking countries, I wonder why). I need to get some.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 04, 2020, 08:08:54 pm
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.

I'm picking that this is so a large group related can be informed at the same time.

<complete speculation> A random guess would be that the person is at a school student or a member of staff - hoepfully not.</complete speculation>

Update: Phew, the case is not a student but a parent who has had family members recently return from Iran. They do have children at two different schools, which has been notified.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 05, 2020, 01:50:19 am
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.
Infected from the family member that bought Corona from Iran. Family now in lockdown.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 05, 2020, 06:53:38 am
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: aix on March 05, 2020, 07:29:11 am
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

I am not seeing that (in the UK).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 05, 2020, 07:31:11 am
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

I am not seeing that (in the UK).

I'm seeing that from a Chinese IP address. And yes, you can watch Youtube with a Chinese IP address (without using a VPN to outside mainland China), just with a bit of quirk.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: FriedLogic on March 05, 2020, 02:02:34 pm
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

Apparently there's a deliberate attempt by some social media companies etc. to promote what they class as reliable info. There's some concern about how much traffic is going to the 'unreliable' sources at the moment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 05, 2020, 02:50:35 pm
I get the same on Digikey web site.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 05, 2020, 06:49:12 pm
There are 2 strains of the covid19 - see the pdf "On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2" (https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463#authorNotesSectionTitle), scientists say :
"S" - less prevalent ancestral version, and
"L"  - more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, more aggressive.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wallace Gasiewicz on March 05, 2020, 11:18:01 pm
Latest study from China:
Mortality lower than 1% for covid19

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1 (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1)

Wally
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 06, 2020, 12:47:30 am
Latest study from China:
Mortality lower than 1% for covid19

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1 (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1)

Wally

One of my pet hates, partial reporting of bad reporting of medical literature.

Firstly, the original paper the medscape article is based on is here ("Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China" (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032)) for anyone who wants to read it.

Secondly the headline "Mortality lower than 1% for covid19" quoted above is actually "COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'" in the Medscape article (Emphasis mine) and, as we will see, that is still inaccurate to the point of uselessness.

Thirdly the phrase 'Considerably Less Than 1%' headlined as a quote in the Medline article doesn't appear anywhere in the actual original paper, it is from a secondary source and it's still a misquote of that source, which doesn't use the phrase either. The original paper found a death rate of 1.4% in the 1099 people in the study, 9% had recovered and 93.6% were still hospitalised, i.e. the outcome for these people still hospitalised is still unknown they may die and push up the mortality rate.

Relevant figures from the actual paper:[attachimg=1]

Bottom line, the paper adds to the data available; it neither establishes a final death rate for the disease nor reports a figure lower than 1% but instead higher. This is an almost perfect example of how information in a medical journal becomes misinformation once it has been through the hands of a so called journalist and then gets quoted on social media. Never believe a headline medical story until you have tracked down and read the original underlying paper that prompted the story.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: angrybird on March 06, 2020, 12:52:11 am
How about: Never believe anything you read on the internet or see on TV.  99% of it is disinformation in one way or another  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 06, 2020, 03:26:30 am
So I am seeing a bunch of different names for this... apparently "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" is now the virus (or disease?) previously known by the provisional name 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), or COVID-19!?!   :-//

Is that to highlight that it produces SARS disease and is basically SARS version 2? Weren't SARS and MERS also coronaviruses? But they were named differently... one based on severe acute, and other Middle East (geographic label)... perhaps those weren't the final names?!?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 06, 2020, 03:50:29 am
So I am seeing a bunch of different names for this... apparently "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" is now the virus (or disease?) previously known by the provisional name 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), or COVID-19!?!   :-//

Is that to highlight that it produces SARS disease and is basically SARS version 2? Weren't SARS and MERS also coronaviruses? But they were named differently... one based on severe acute, and other Middle East (geographic label)... perhaps those weren't the final names?!?

SARS2 is the name of the virus, COVID19 is the name of the disease, 2019-ncov is the temporary name that is now deprecated.
This virus shows similar but lighter symptoms than SARS, and similar but more transmission paths than SARS. It's 79.6% genetically similar to SARS.
And more importantly, it also shows a severe and acute respiratory syndrome.

SARS was a bad name in the first place as it covers too much than a single disease. It's a symptom, not a reason.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 06, 2020, 04:30:50 am
The tonality of CBC, a major Canadian TV broadcaster and government puppet, has changed from the rosy "no worries" propaganda to "it is not a question that the virus will not come, it is when it will come" and "you may need to stock some food and supplies for at least two weeks". So much about listening to and trusting official sources. We have to take care of ourselves and follow our own judgement.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 06, 2020, 05:09:15 am
 
- there is the bat derived servere acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus SARS Cov.
- then the new one is server acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus 2. SARS-Cov-2.
- the new Corona strain causes the COVID-19 decease.
 Both are Corona family of viruses..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: angrybird on March 06, 2020, 05:12:23 am
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: purfield on March 06, 2020, 05:32:11 am
At least with influenza we have vaccines that are sometimes effective.  No such thing with COVID19 for a while.  We are all susceptible. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 06, 2020, 05:35:38 am
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

You are so sure your place this time around will not go to a lock down like those cities in China.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 06, 2020, 05:44:01 am
You are so sure your place this time around will not go to a lock down like those cities in China.

The only currently locked down city in China, Wuhan, still has a working market system.
You can't go out doesn't mean you can't buy.
Delivery drivers will deliver whatever you bought to the entrance of your complex, and you can go downstairs to the entrance of your complex and grab it.

Even in a non locked down city it is still prudent to purchase using delivery services just to reduce contact.
I've been spending 23+ hours in my room per day for the past 3 weeks, and so far I haven't see much of an inconvenience.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 06, 2020, 06:24:06 am
(I've been isolating myself this week also, in case I happened to be a carrier.  I might have a slight cold, and no need to mingle with people, so it has been quite easy.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 06, 2020, 06:39:00 am
You just don't understand the difference. We have partial antibodies for the Influenza and we get also the yearly derived booster. This protects the general population and does not causes major labor disruption. The flu kills many of the very old and very ill even with the yearly vaccine.

 Now we have a virus that no one is inmune. So it's spreading like wild fire and killing 2% of infected. Very similar to the regular Flu.

  So if you still don't understand, let's clarify.
  This are just numbers to explain the comparison.

FOLLOWING IS JUST NUMBER TO POINT A CROSS:

-IN ONE YEAR.   So if the flu kills 60,000 in the USA USING 2% that is about 3,000,000 got sick and 60'000 died even with the helper vaccine.

  No let's say COVID19. How many?  No vaccine, no immunity. This means more people will get it. How many? China had to shut down an entire city o about 30,000,000 million no one in no one out no planes, no ships. And the virus still spread world wide.  So it's just been in the USA for 6 weeks. 
 The nursing home is Seattle is having about a mortality rate of 20%. Yes old and un-healthy will have about a 14 to 20% mortality rate if we don't stop exposure.
The infected healthy recover and many need strong antiviral cocktails to overcome and also some recover after two weeks.
 So let's say the infection rate, if we don take aggressive measures to stop infection, is twice as many will get some form of Corv19. The use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu on2%.
 That means 60,000 million will get I'll. And  120,000 will die. One don't take a break e measures to stop the spread.
The USA has about 24,000,000 elderly, living in close quarters
The Flu infected 3,000,000 US even with vaccine.
Corv19 will Infect theoretically anyone exposed with no immunity.
So let say we are lucky.  The flue infected 1%.  Corv19 let say it infects 10% of us population.
That is30,000,000 people. And 2% will die. So that means 600,000 people will die.
600,000
600,000.
But that number is way wrong. Because Corv19 is killing at a 14% rate if you Are elderly or have some other serious health issue like heart disease or diabetes.
So let's say 10% are from the elderly group.
That is 24,000,000 x 10%=  2,400,000 elderly will die.

 That is just rough math if we can not stop the I vection rate to levels of the Flu.
 Since we have no Vaccine, and no immunity yet severe measure will have to be input in place just like China did.

 If we don't do what China did, rough math says 3,000,000 will die.

 DISCLAIMER. I DID THIS MATH ON THE FLY. SO DONT THROW ME UNDER THE BUS.  I JUST IN A HURRY TO GE HIS POSTED.  THIS. UMBERS IS WHY THE WORLD Iẞ REACTING IN THOSE WAYS TO STOP THE SPREAD.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 06, 2020, 06:42:56 am
How could 3,000,000 people in the USA could die.

You just don't understand the difference. We have partial antibodies for the Influenza and we get also the yearly derived booster. This protects the general population and does not causes major labor disruption. The flu kills many of the very old and very ill even with the yearly vaccine.

 Now we have a virus that no one is inmune. So it's spreading like wild fire and killing 2% of the infected. Very similar to the regular Flu.

  So if you still don't understand, let's clarify.
  This are just numbers to explain the comparison.

FOLLOWING IS JUST NUMBER MAKE THE TO POINT A CROSS:

-IN ONE YEAR.   So if the flu kills 60,000 in the USA USING 2% that is about 3,000,000 got sick and 60'000 died even with the helper vaccine.

  Now let's say COVID19. How many?  No vaccine, no immunity. This means more people will get it. How many? China had to shut down an entire city of about 30,000,000 million no one in no one out no planes, no ships. And the virus still spread world wide.  So it's just been in the USA for 6 weeks. 
 The nursing home is Seattle is having about a mortality rate of 20%. Yes old and un-healthy will have about a 14 to 20% mortality rate if we don't stop exposure.
The infected healthy recover and many need strong antiviral cocktails to overcome and also some recover after two weeks.
 So let's say the infection rate, if we dont take aggressive measures to stop infection, is just twice as many will get some form of Corv19. Then use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu of 2%.
 That means 60,000 million will get I'll. And  120,000 will die. If we don't take agresive measures to stop the spread.
The USA has about 24,000,000 elderly, living in close quarters.

The Flu infected 3,000,000 US even with vaccine.

Corv19 will Infect theoretically anyone exposed with no immunity.

So let say we are lucky.  The flue infected 1% of the US with large numbers vaccinated.
Corv19 let say it infects 10% of us population. It is realistic since we have no immunity.
That comes to 30,000,000 people. And 2% will die. So that means 600,000 people will die.
600,000
600,000.
But that number is likely way wrong. Because Corv19 is killing at a 14% rate if you Are elderly or have some other serious health issue like heart disease or diabetes.
So let's say 10% are from the elderly group.
That is 24,000,000 x 10%=  2,400,000 elderly will die.

 That is just rough math if we can not stop the I infection rate to levels below the seasonal  Flu.
 Since we have no Vaccine, and no immunity yet severe measure will have to be input in place just like China did.

 If we don't do what China did, rough math says 3,000,000 will die.

 DISCLAIMER. I DID THIS MATH ON THE FLY. SO DONT THROW ME UNDER THE BUS.  I JUST IN A HURRY TO GE HIS POSTED.  THIS. UMBERS IS WHY THE WORLD Iẞ REACTING IN THOSE WAYS TO STOP THE SPREAD.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 06, 2020, 07:09:34 am
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

Seeing that you are from Puerto Rico, I'm surprised you have such a lax attitude regarding emergency preparedness.

I live in a part of the US that is prone to both tornadoes and ice storms and I once lost my power for two weeks due to an ice storm.  At the time I was lucky enough to have a bunch of freeze dried backpacking food as well as a backpacking stove and fuel.

I was basically an "accidental prepper."

Obviously, I would have survived without the emergency food but it proved to be pretty convenient.  I was able to stay at home and eat nice warm meals.  I didn't have to go out and fight the crowds.  I remember friends telling me about the madness at the stores.  One friend said he had to drive into the next state (about 70 miles away) just to buy a power generator.

Since then I have always had extra freeze dried food "just in case."

The food from Mountain House (the company that produces the best freeze dried food, in my opinion) has a shelf-life of 30 years so you can pretty much just put it in a cabinet and forget it.  Out of curiosity, I just checked their website and they are completely out of stock of everything they sell.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 06, 2020, 07:23:46 am
No such thing with COVID19 for a while.

I wonder ... if lets say low dose interferon and ribavirin worked as a prophylactic would we even be told? It's expensive and you can't just scale production on a dime.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 06, 2020, 07:49:10 am
I wonder ... if lets say low dose interferon and ribavirin worked as a prophylactic would we even be told? It's expensive and you can't just scale production on a dime.

Expensive due to profit requirement of drug manufacturers. In China those are cheap as dirt.
Interferon was expensive due to its nature. It can be hardly synthesized and requires bio engineered microbes to make.
As with anything, once the Chinese learnt the secret, it gets cheaper. It's all about the DNA in the microbe, and DNA sequencing is very common in China to reverse engineer Western bio-engineered medicines.
Interferon in China is super cheap, cheap enough to be used as (potentially) placebos in gel form to treat skin viral infections like warts, while the use was never heard outside China except for genital warts.
Last time I got some flat warts doctors proscribed me interferon alpha-2-b for $2 per 3mL tube.
As for ribaviron, it is just a simple small molecule that can be chemically synthesized, nothing special.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 06, 2020, 08:15:24 am
Delivery drivers will deliver whatever you bought to the entrance of your complex, and you can go downstairs to the entrance of your complex and grab it.

Even in a non locked down city it is still prudent to purchase using delivery services just to reduce contact.
Why i should be doing this when i simply can have supplies in my closet. Outside food may become expensive, delivery drivers may charge a premium, and the delivered food may be contaminated. This is literally inviting the virus straight into your house.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on March 06, 2020, 11:30:18 am
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???

 :palm:

(Sorry about the delay, from 26th Feb...)
I don't understand the 'FacePalm' ?   Last week, on Australian TV News, (can't remember who),
it was stated that the Chinese Govt was disappointed with Australia limiting certain flights or
travel from certain regions. I found that irresponsible & offensive. Next few months will tell...  >:(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 06, 2020, 11:50:41 am
Chinese Govt was disappointed with Australia limiting certain flights or travel from certain regions.

How does this relate to China wants Australia to be infected?
It means China wants its people not to be discriminated, at the cost of Australia's public health.
It's a dick move, but infecting Australia was never an intent.
It would be stupid to want one's largest raw material source and finished product market to collapse, isn't it.

//Edit: censored some part of the post in order not to trigger another war.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 06, 2020, 01:20:45 pm
Folding@Home has started a project to fight the virus.
https://foldingathome.org/2020/02/27/foldinghome-takes-up-the-fight-against-covid-19-2019-ncov/
Also keep in mind that you can still mine Curecoin and Foldingcoin, without reducing your contribution to science.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 06, 2020, 01:24:51 pm
.... Then use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu of 2%. ...

At least one problem there with your sums, the case fatality rate for regular seasonal flu is about 0.1%, not the 2% you quoted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 06, 2020, 03:08:55 pm
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

Seeing that you are from Puerto Rico, I'm surprised you have such a lax attitude regarding emergency preparedness.

I'd take that location with a pinch of salt if I was you.

[attachimg=1 width=170] [attachimg=2 width=170]

Two new users appear on 24th February and 3rd of March, both immediately move to high post counts for newbies, both from the same apparent country and a fixation on little tweety things? Now, I may be wrong, but I think I can smell someone's sock drawer being opened.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 06, 2020, 03:30:56 pm
Don't worry, done and dealt with.

Stocking up on food is not a bad idea. No need to go prepper mad with food for 2 years but a months supply of tins is not a bad call, just saw an interview with an "expert" who said that to have some food would be a good idea. My brexit buffer is now my covid 19 buffer.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 06, 2020, 03:37:43 pm
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
  • Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
  • Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
  • R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
  • Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
  • Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
  • R0 - 1.4-3.8

Well yes, thanks for correcting the terms. "Death rate" and "mortality rate", which we hear about a lot in the media, are improper terms here.
What was meant was the case-fatality ratio instead, which so far looks much higher for this virus than for regular "flu", but as I said, even that can't be completely figured out yet as (fortunately) the number of detected infected people is still very low compared to the figures we have for regular flu.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 06, 2020, 05:18:13 pm
How to interpret this? True/False?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic (https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 06, 2020, 05:36:19 pm
How to interpret this? True/False?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic (https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic)

As dumb conspiracy theory stuff.

Wuhan is a big city, it has the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As a parallel, London (another high population city) has the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine, which has the high biosecurity labs necessary for investigating diseases, as it does. (It also has Northwich Park MRC, several other governmental/quasi-governmental medical research establishments that handle viruses, lord knows how many Hospital pathology labs, and about a dozen Universities conducting microbiological research and god knows how many private research institutes). If there is an outbreak of disease in London, do we attribute it to shadowy bio-weapons research? No, we do not.

You could pick any major city in any major country in the world and come up with a similar candidate list of labs conducting virology research or handling live virus samples. Shadowy government bio-weapons labs tend to be situated in the arse end of nowhere, for obvious reasons.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 06, 2020, 05:38:10 pm
Can we have a Raspberry Pi version of this?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 06, 2020, 07:34:00 pm
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
  • Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
  • Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
  • R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
  • Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
  • Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
  • R0 - 1.4-3.8

Yes, I agree, "You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the 'case-fatality ratio' until an epidemic is over." You do not, however, wait "until the epidemic is over" to make decisions. If they are to be evidenced-based decisions, then they need to be based on the evidence that is available. I am not saying that you disagree with that or that you have said otherwise, I am emphasizing the point.

Take, for example, the graphs below (I have not attempted to validate the data):
[attachimg=1]
from:https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-by-age/ (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-by-age/) Source:CDCC Most recent data available as of March 5, 2020Infographic by Sara Chodosh

The need for a presumptive overall mortality rate is less compelling than looking at where the deaths have occurred, "so far" - at least for the over 50 crowd.

If you are trying to decide whether to close schools, for example, do you decide based on the observed overall mortality rate so far? I might add that the under 50 crowd is less likely to have the "responsibility" of deciding whether to close a school or not.

I like that you brought up the terms and this is not a counter-post to what you have said, it it just expressing a very difficult and practical matter. I am glad that I do not have to make such decisions, but I want to see them as evidenced-based.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 06, 2020, 07:51:25 pm
I'd take that location with a pinch of salt if I was you.

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

Two new users appear on 24th February and 3rd of March, both immediately move to high post counts for newbies, both from the same apparent country and a fixation on little tweety things? Now, I may be wrong, but I think I can smell someone's sock drawer being opened.

Three users, actually.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 06, 2020, 07:56:44 pm
the two spare chicks got banned. He's Angrybird, anything else get's banned.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 06, 2020, 11:28:56 pm
Something I found interesting.

COVID-19 cases per million people (Populations from Google, cases from WHO Situation report 46):

Hubei Provence: 1145.6 (67592/59M)

South Korea: 123.2 (6284/51M)

Italy 64.3  (3858/60M)

All of China: 56.5 (80711/1428M)

Iran: 43.3 (3513/86M)

USA: 0.5  (148/330M)

One perspective that seems to be completely lacking is that you can't outrun exponential growth.

If nothing is done differently, this time next week there will be more cases outside China than inside - if anything the pace of growth seems to have picked up in the last week or so.

China started the Wuhan lockdown at about 2,300 cases (on 23 Jan), and it seems to have settled down at 80k cases...



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 06, 2020, 11:32:57 pm
NIH to start SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trial next week.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/06/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-7DHARJPWIFE5JPOWTVZU5SUUDQ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/06/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-7DHARJPWIFE5JPOWTVZU5SUUDQ)
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/clinical-trials-for-coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-place-at-seattle-research-institute/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/clinical-trials-for-coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-place-at-seattle-research-institute/)

Planned to run for some 13 months.


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 07, 2020, 06:39:01 pm
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 08, 2020, 04:13:50 am
That will probably happen here too. Give it a few weeks and the news media will find some new shiny thing to focus on, people will get tired of being cooped up at home and slide back toward complacency. The status quo is not sustainable at all, though I'm really enjoying the much lighter traffic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 08, 2020, 12:22:08 pm
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 08, 2020, 12:36:28 pm
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19

Not sure I get your point. We are observing an exponential growth of confirmed infections in many countries (e.g. doubling every 2 days in Germany and UK). If we let that trend continue unmitigated, hospitals would soon be unable to cope with even a small percentage of severe cases. Isn't that a plausible cause to instigate measures to try and slow down the spread?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 08, 2020, 12:55:15 pm
While the worlds media feeds on the covid-19 story it's a good time for governments to make unpopular announcements as they won't get as much coverage. The media is mare worried about filling it's air time and less worried about what it fills it with.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: EEVblog on March 08, 2020, 01:04:28 pm
While the worlds media feeds on the covid-19 story it's a good time for governments to make unpopular announcements as they won't get as much coverage. The media is mare worried about filling it's air time and less worried about what it fills it with.

Here in Australia the government is making a huge to-do about it and press conferencing every chance they get. They are trying to make up for the lack of s!#t given when the fires happened. Our PM was famously overseas on holidays and didn't seem to care and he copped a hiding for it in the media. His advisers are now no doubt telling him to milk the crap out of this crisis to win back Joe Public.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 08, 2020, 01:40:36 pm
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19

What, the old "This is good day to publish bad news" schtick?

If you're bored and want a good cynical laugh, compare the kind of press releases that any government department puts out at 09:00 on a Monday versus the ones they publish at 17:01 on a Friday.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 08, 2020, 09:28:25 pm
seen it locally where they decide to run a consultation process about some unimportant matter like splitting the county in two or privatizing the counties services or closing the local library. Funny that these things always come around in December. i can't possibly think why.....
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 08, 2020, 11:16:41 pm
I don't know about the media subterfuge angle or even the panic angle.

In the US, what has me very concerned is the lack of pressure by the news media to address (by address, I mean raise the public's awareness and anger) a horrendous lack of availability of testing kits. In fact, there is argument on whether or not there is a shortage of test kits https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486416-azar-contradicts-pence-says-theres-no-coronavirus-testing-kit-shortage (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486416-azar-contradicts-pence-says-theres-no-coronavirus-testing-kit-shortage)  - If so, have tests been conducted in all at-risk populations (like senior homes)?  Where are the priorities for testing?- Who is in charge around here?! That is the kind of response that I would like to hear but it has not been a news item - right now there are some grumblings - e.g., https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve) .

Drive through testing has only now begun in Seattle. But how long it takes to get the swabs read is not in the article except for "as soon as possible". https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/08/813501632/seattle-health-care-system-offers-drive-through-coronavirus-testing-for-workers (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/08/813501632/seattle-health-care-system-offers-drive-through-coronavirus-testing-for-workers)

B&M Gates foundation is funding home test kits, but they are mail back swabs https://q13fox.com/2020/03/08/gates-foundation-to-soon-offer-home-testing-kits-for-coronavirus-in-seattle-area/ (https://q13fox.com/2020/03/08/gates-foundation-to-soon-offer-home-testing-kits-for-coronavirus-in-seattle-area/)

I am not an immunologist and I don't know how possible it is to have a truly rapid test kit that uses Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assays https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/lab/lab-testing.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/lab/lab-testing.html). Maybe the best that you can get right now are 10 zillion well plates.

But this is absolute must have for any kind of control

Edited to fix link

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 09, 2020, 12:12:13 am
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 09, 2020, 12:32:37 am
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?

I'm trying really hard to leave the politics out of it....on here I respect that for an electronics site. So, I will just say that I am very disappointed in the response so far and that I hope it gets a lot better very soon. I am optimistic that the response will get much better.

As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize. Somebody on here said something like, "it is hard to outrun exponential growth". This is especially true when you wait until after the starting gun to move.

OK, got it out of my system for now. Sorry.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 09, 2020, 12:39:18 am
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 09, 2020, 01:11:19 am
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//

Yes, I am aware of the situation. I was referring to my gut response - my inclination to respond in a manner that is disrespectful of the principle to leave politics out of the discussion.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 09, 2020, 01:16:55 am
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?

  Only for about the past week (since the 27th). Before that the CDC was in charge and apparently running very much open loop.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 09, 2020, 01:20:24 am
Search for "coronavirus politics" if you really want to find out. But no reason to bring it here. Those of us who care to know about relevant politics already know about them. Those of us who bury their head in the sand don't want to know at this time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 09, 2020, 01:27:37 am
The important thing is to keep big business going, to keep the share price high and maintain market share. Just ask the CEOs of most large corporations, the mega-rich, and Dr. Groeteschele from Fail Safe (1964). Why not just let everyone get the virus and and let the elderly die? Their use-by date has expired anyway. And they are not big spenders on Nike or the latest Apple products, so the losses are minimal. The share price - that is what is important!

Seriously though, it is fun to watch the greedy and amoral suffer as the share market crashes :-+. Bad news though is the greedy might pour more money back into the housing investment market, making homes more unaffordable for genuine families than ever :--.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 09, 2020, 01:29:05 am
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//

   Bud, I don't think that that was directed at you. I think the previous poster was expressing his own dissatisfaction at the US's lack of testing and other failures with regard to handling the early outbreaks in the US.  I posted some similar days ago when I pointed out that the US had only tested 44something people whereas VietNam had tested over 1700 and South Korea had tested well over 100,000.  But to be fair, I will say this was when the CDC was in charge and before Pence was appointed to take charge.

   For the most part, everyone on this forum has done a good job of discussing the facts without veering off into politics. I hope we can keep it that way.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 07:57:36 am
I don't think investors are too bothered other than those involved in short term profiteering. In the long term things will come back. I heard a guy on the radio the other day saying just that. He was not bothered because his investment business works in the years and decades not the 1 week panic mode.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 09, 2020, 09:52:43 am
This is pretty close.  Here is a good primer of what R0 is.
Remember that R0 is not a rate.  It does not have time dimension in it.
Leo
As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 09, 2020, 09:56:05 am
I am all for social justice but you probably do not know that most of society's pension money is invested in stock markets.
Be careful what you wish for.
Leo
Seriously though, it is fun to watch the greedy and amoral suffer as the share market crashes :-+.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 10:39:23 am
Quite, not my problem as at 36 plenty of time to recover. As much as i hate the stocks and shares model it will be the source of my pension.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 09, 2020, 01:52:50 pm
This is pretty close.  Here is a good primer of what R0 is.
Remember that R0 is not a rate.  It does not have time dimension in it.
Leo
As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.

Yes, you are right and I was being sloppy. What I meant, of course, is that the idea is NOT to have the expected number of secondary infections determined by R0 by introducing quarantine into the population in contrast to a "completely susceptible" population, which the R0 assumes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/
 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 09, 2020, 03:15:06 pm
Seems grim

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 09, 2020, 04:43:16 pm
There does seem to be a remarkable disconnect between what happened in China, and what the West were expecting. It seems that China is faraway and a distinct type of culture, so while we were LOLing at the Chinese building hospitals in 10 days, and declaring "war on Coronavirus", our mindset seemed to be "won't happen here, we are different".

We may will be different, but not in ways that affect a virus. The Chinese response was drastic and quite remarkable, and should have been a major heads up. In several ways they messed up the initial response, and the animal-human phase appears to have been overlooked, but then they got serious about it. Even with that warning, our governments have dillied about, and the public (no doubt prompted by our wonderful "free" media) go into panic mode.

There are interesting political angles which I won't go into. But it would be a good idea if the money that was chopped from budgets aimed at preventing pandemic outbreaks was restored... but what will probably happen is that after muddling through, people will say "that wasn't so bad" and go back to business as usual.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 05:30:11 pm
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 09, 2020, 07:12:08 pm
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.

Home birth?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 07:17:25 pm
Yes I had wondered if they would be organized for that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 09, 2020, 07:22:06 pm
Yes I had wondered if they would be organized for that.

Anyone can request it in the UK,  the midwives come to your house.  So few people do it, that you will get far more attention than at a hospital.   You have to request it well in advance...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 07:29:22 pm
Sounds like the best thing. With hospitals cleaned by contractors employing staff on minimum wage I have no wish to have her hanging around in a hospital that is full of people being treated for Covid-19, with the best will in the world once they go full overload cross contamination will occur.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 09, 2020, 11:28:52 pm
Decent tracking site here - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 09, 2020, 11:46:39 pm
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.

China continues to report unrealistically low numbers of new daily cases. Just 4 today.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 09, 2020, 11:56:52 pm
Sounds like the best thing. With hospitals cleaned by contractors employing staff on minimum wage I have no wish to have her hanging around in a hospital that is full of people being treated for Covid-19, with the best will in the world once they go full overload cross contamination will occur.

Under normal circumstances, home birth is much more dangerous than hospital birth.  I don't envy anyone having to balance that against coronavirus risk.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 10, 2020, 03:30:07 am
All of the roadside births I've heard about at the hands of cabbies or police officers have all had happy endings.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 10, 2020, 10:56:07 am
Italy now on countrywide quarantine. Whether you believe the Chinese figures or not, the ROW is really taking off. I expect more national quarantines like Italy.

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106369525-1583802252667covid-global.png?v=1583802171&w=740&h=416)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BU508A on March 10, 2020, 09:06:48 pm
Time for a smile or two:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYTzX9JCbDY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYTzX9JCbDY)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5kc-kjlcDo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5kc-kjlcDo)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 10, 2020, 09:38:21 pm
those are hilarious.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Weston on March 11, 2020, 12:47:10 am
Universities in the USA started moving to online instruction last Wednesday. Today they started announcing that undergrads should not come back to campus after spring break, possibly not returning until next fall. I know that MIT, Stanford, and Harvard have implemented these policies, I assume other schools are also doing so.

Not that I really interact with the undergrads, but campus is going to be pretty quiet for the next few months and its going to be basically impossible for any lab or project based classes to be offered.

Given that this looks like its going to lead into an economic recession its a pretty good time to be a grad student. Guaranteed job security!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 11, 2020, 03:15:25 pm
At the end of last month I took a look at the US case count to try to get an idea of how quickly this disease would be spreading.  I just wanted to be able to make some plans regarding travel.  So, I watched the numbers from the worldometer website.  I found that the US case count doubled on a very regular pace.  From March 1 I started recording the number each day and plotting it.  It's amazing how predictible it has been.  Since March 1 in the US it has been very tightly tracking an exponential growth pattern.  The number of cases is doubling every 2.4 days.  On this growth path, the number of US cases will reach over 420,000 by the end of March.  However, in the US , bureaucratic and financial hurdles are resulting in very little testing being done.  So the actual number of cases is likely much higher than the available numbers.  If more extensive testing is done it will likely drive the numbers to go above the projection.  If significant actions are taken to slow the spread, the data will track below the curve.  So far, neither of these are seen in the data.

So, when will we see an inflection in the curve -- at the latest?  Epidemiologists are saying to expect 60% to 80% infection rate before herd immunity takes effect.  On the current growth path for the US, that will occur between April 21 and April 23.  But, considering that the case count is likely higher than we know and that fear will probably grip the population and policy leaders before that prompting them to take some actions to slow the spread, I suspect we'll see an inflection point in the US in mid April.  Unfortunately the inflection point will not be the peak.  I think it's safe to say this epidemic will be with us for more than the next couple of months.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 11, 2020, 05:15:30 pm
PANDEMIC!

Yes WHO finally shifted their stance from epidemic to pandemic. There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground. Bottom line is, they don't want people to give up fighting since there was still "hope" when it was being treated as an epidemic. At this point, you might think resistance if futile, but even as a pandemic (which everyone already knew was where it was going), it is still good to fight it like an epidemic to slow down it's progression. This will be difficult in many liberal democracies but it may eventually come down to Italian-like lockdowns (I doubt we will ever allow Chinese-like lockdowns) which is going to be devastating either way.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 11, 2020, 05:27:35 pm
i have food for a month. They have been compelled to change their stance as governments have an eye and a half on their corporate bosses and the stock market and not enough on the pandemic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 11, 2020, 05:39:09 pm
PANDEMIC!

Yes WHO finally shifted their stance from epidemic to pandemic. There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground. Bottom line is, they don't want people to give up fighting since there was still "hope" when it was being treated as an epidemic. At this point, you might think resistance if futile, but even as a pandemic (which everyone already knew was where it was going), it is still good to fight it like an epidemic to slow down it's progression. This will be difficult in many liberal democracies but it may eventually come down to Italian-like lockdowns (I doubt we will ever allow Chinese-like lockdowns) which is going to be devastating either way.

The prior H1N1 outbreak was officially classified as a pandemic by the WHO. Just because it has met the criteria to be labelled a pandemic rather than an epidemic means only one thing, that much/most of the world is involved. Being a 'pandemic' is not a necessarily a question of seriousness or scale, just of geographical spread. I'm being pernickety precisely because the word 'pandemic' makes people use 18pt type, exclamation marks and start running around in circles panicking. By definition, all of you (unless we have some 11 year old members) lived through the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and you're still here.

Quote
There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground.

Much more likely is that they have a set of formal criteria that have to be met before something moves along the scale of nomenclature from outbreak=>epidemic=>pandemic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 11, 2020, 06:00:17 pm
It's now quite widespread around the world. We got to this stage because we all went on holiday. I have a colleague that still expects to go to Austria at the end of the month  |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 11, 2020, 06:06:29 pm
I'm being pernickety precisely because the word 'pandemic' makes people use 18pt type, exclamation marks and start running around in circles panicking. By definition, all of you (unless we have some 11 year old members) lived through the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and you're still here.

Yes agreed. My understanding is that the classification change also affects how governments treat the outbreak, how funding is distributed, how they mobilize their health systems. It can change their policies toward travel, focusing their help internationally or bunkering down domestically, and so on. So now as we shift towards pandemic-management there will be different strategies employed, none of which involve stockpiling of toilet paper (I hope).  :-DD

All reports seem to indicate that like H1N1, it will probably end up infecting 70% of the population and that the vast majority (80%) of people will experience mild to moderate cold-like symptoms which eventually they recover from, with the remaining 20% having severe symptoms possibly requiring hospitalization. In this smaller subset of people, mostly immunologically fragile or breathing-compromised, we will see the possibly 2-3% of pneumonia-related deaths. While H1N1 had a purported death rate of 0.5%, most countries are already experiencing near-capacity health-care system utilization with many under-funded... so it will breach capacity unless things are slowed down.

So no need to panic but this is going to stress out hospitals for sure. Being in Canada and seeing how stressed to the brink our government-run health care system already is, and having quite a number of doctor and nurse friends, I am hearing from them what nightmare we might expect in the coming months if things keep "tragectorying" the way they have been so far. Nothing to do but wait and watch.  :popcorn:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 11, 2020, 06:24:24 pm
The Uk will do badly once it spreads. accident and emmergency are always on the backfoot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 11, 2020, 06:58:20 pm
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.

Both young women and babies (10 years and less) are low risk categories and by May it the virus should be much weaker.

COVID-19 is just a (one of the largest) bunch of RNA code enclosed in a protein shell.
It requires the host cell machinery to reproduce and doesn't live long outside a host. The hotter and wetter (RH) is the air the shorter is its life (in the air or on various surfaces).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 11, 2020, 07:01:13 pm
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.

China continues to report unrealistically low numbers of new daily cases. Just 4 today.

given the harsh measures taken those are not unrealistic
I rather expect lots of unreported cases in the US (and even worse in Russia)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DBecker on March 11, 2020, 07:11:58 pm
All of the roadside births I've heard about at the hands of cabbies or police officers have all had happy endings.

Selection bias.  Quick births at full term are usually healthy mothers and babies.  Multiple days of pre-labor and labor is correlated with problems.

Similarly planned home births in areas with good health care tend to have good outcomes because people with higher risk don't select that option.  Home births with no other options have worse statistics  because there are usually no good fall-back plans.

The statistics for Covid-19 are uncertain because we can't separate the selection effects.  Perhaps we have 10x symptom-free cases for every serious case.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 11, 2020, 07:35:47 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 11, 2020, 07:52:59 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)

Long testimony, scary to read but perhaps a glimpse into what awaits us. Let's hope we have the fortitude and foresight to delay or stop this tidal wave before it gets to that point.

Just as an aside... I am in the health professions and ordered (along with a bunch of unrelated medical supplies) some masks from a medical supply company to health professionals/private clinics. I received everything BUT the masks order which are indefinite back-order. I have a doctor friend of ours that is in a private multi-doctor clinic and she had to drive 1 hour away to buy a box of masks.

So you need to prioritize masks going to people in the community who have high "Bacon numbers"... i.e. people who are potentially in contact with many other people throughout the day and in close proximity (dentists, doctors, etc), as they would be a "node" with high connectivity of potential transmission. Having said that, a lawyer in New York apparently is being implicated as being such a "node" with multiple cases being tracked back to that office. Blocking as many of these high-connectivity nodes would be more effective I would think. Computer-modelling this may gain useful insight into the best places to distribute such equipment and the best strategies for containment when limited supplies are available.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 11, 2020, 07:58:19 pm
Selection bias.

My comment was merely a statement of my experience, nothing more. I've never seen a person with purple skin is not the same as saying there are no people with purple skin. But I actually saw a guy on TV that did have purple skin, or maybe it was more of a blue. Maybe if I'd never seen the segment I truly would not believe people could have purple skin. Maybe the media is biased and does not report of botched curbside births.  :-//

I'd not want to have a pregnant sister in the same situation right now either.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 11, 2020, 08:00:44 pm
by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 11, 2020, 08:05:51 pm
However, the areas that got it first are going to recover first. So China is going to be back to work sooner than the US, which is just starting to react, despite Trumps assurances that everything will be ok.

(I have food for maybe three months, although the last month won't have much variety.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 11, 2020, 08:22:02 pm
German Chancellor Merkel on Covid:
https://berlinspectator.com/2020/03/11/merkel-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-pass-the-test/
"Therefore 60 to 70 percent of all people in Germany could be infected."
aka "What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 11, 2020, 08:44:05 pm
by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/)

"The virus should be much weaker" and 'the virus is less likely to be transmitted in warmer weather' - the latter being what Snopes considers - are not the same thing.

There's a real possibility that the virus in circulation may be less virulent by May by a combination of two reasons: (1) Coronaviruses are highly mutable, there's a very high probability of new variants emerging during a pandemic, (2) viruses/bacteria/parasites that kill their hosts are less likely to spread than less lethal variants. This was actually seen, and confirmed, during one of the earlier flu pandemics (I don't offhand remember which one) where later in the pandemic the original flu variant died off and a mutated, less virulent, variant continued to spread - the death rate fell while infection rates continued at the same level. Although this is a real possibility, it's not a effect that any plan to control the disease ought to rely on.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 11, 2020, 08:59:55 pm
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemics in the northern hemisphere usually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 11, 2020, 09:16:47 pm
The cloudy vs. sunny days in the spring may represent days vs. hours of the virus activity on a surface.

PS: Italy closes all stores except pharmacies and food outlets
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 11, 2020, 11:07:16 pm
People should learn their history and not be as ignorant as the morons in Thailand wearing the swastika.

The 1919 Spanish 'flu (actually it started in the USA) came in three waves. It was the third wave that wiped out most of the victims. The Chinese communist party is beating its chest about how great totalitarian rule is, but at least another wave will very likely follow, much worse than the first one. How these serial liars are going to face up to the Chinese people if and when it happens will be interesting.

The WHO just announced the pandemic. Monday might be a good time to buy stocks with a long term view.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 11, 2020, 11:19:03 pm
Because I found it very thought provoking, here is the RNA for one of the Australian samples :

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT007544 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT007544)

At ~30,000 bases, that's about at most 8 kilobytes of information, that can kill thousands (maybe soon millions?) of people, and billions of $.

PS. If felling uber-geeky you can also cut and paste part of the sequence (a line or two) into BLAST (see link on top right) and see what else matches...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 11, 2020, 11:28:00 pm
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemics in the northern hemisphere usually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).
Higher humidity. With lower humidity as in the winter the nasaldrops loose their moist content faster and the particles travel larger distances. That is why you should keep a further distance with lower humidity than high humidity where the heavier particles will drop sooner and travel a shorter distance.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 11, 2020, 11:28:29 pm
PS: Italy closes all stores except pharmacies and food outlets

In the rest of Europe they are still at stage 1: don't worry, 80% only show mild symptoms.
Don't forget to wash your hands, and no, masks are not needed (don't but them, we need them)

EDIT: Apparently, other parts of the world are still at stage 0: "lalalalalala it's just the flu, I don't want to look at numbers".

P.S.
Dave, "Amid growing suggestions that ministers have acted too slowly in seeking to combat the virus – the editor of the Lancet medical journal accused them of “playing roulette” with people’s lives"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-cases-trump-us-travel-ban-europe-pandemic-delay-phase-a9396186.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-cases-trump-us-travel-ban-europe-pandemic-delay-phase-a9396186.html)
You might want to try to delete that, as well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 12, 2020, 01:26:32 am
At the end of last month I took a look at the US case count to try to get an idea of how quickly this disease would be spreading.  I just wanted to be able to make some plans regarding travel.  So, I watched the numbers from the worldometer website.  I found that the US case count doubled on a very regular pace.  From March 1 I started recording the number each day and plotting it.  It's amazing how predictible it has been.  Since March 1 in the US it has been very tightly tracking an exponential growth pattern.  The number of cases is doubling every 2.4 days.  On this growth path, the number of US cases will reach over 420,000 by the end of March.  However, in the US , bureaucratic and financial hurdles are resulting in very little testing being done.  So the actual number of cases is likely much higher than the available numbers.  If more extensive testing is done it will likely drive the numbers to go above the projection.  If significant actions are taken to slow the spread, the data will track below the curve.  So far, neither of these are seen in the data.

So, when will we see an inflection in the curve -- at the latest?  Epidemiologists are saying to expect 60% to 80% infection rate before herd immunity takes effect.  On the current growth path for the US, that will occur between April 21 and April 23.  But, considering that the case count is likely higher than we know and that fear will probably grip the population and policy leaders before that prompting them to take some actions to slow the spread, I suspect we'll see an inflection point in the US in mid April.  Unfortunately the inflection point will not be the peak.  I think it's safe to say this epidemic will be with us for more than the next couple of months.
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination. The latter is out of the question (vaccine is at least 12-18 month behind). So the actual spread will continue until most people get infected.

As for tracking test results... In open countries, like the US, there is the limit on how many positive tests the country can report each day (determined by the number of available test kits, lab throughput, qualification criteria determined by bureaucrats, etc.).

For example, 2 weeks before now the US had limited ability to perform tests:  January through end of February they performed only ~1,500 tests in total in few CDC labs across the country, and that yielded few dozens domestic positive tests. Once million test kits were provide to health authorities of 50 states over the past few weeks, the number of positive tests in the US started climbing exponentially. This does not mean that there was no exponential community spread before the test kits were provide to states. The system was simply not able to gauge that spread with 1,500 tests they performed in 2 month.

Sooner or later the speed of the spread will outpace the current testing capacity in the US. The statistics will start flattening out in the US, but the exponential spread will continue.

As for authoritarian regimes - you simply cannot trust the numbers they produce. Recent figures from China are laughable, and they cannot be rationally explained. Another example is Russia. Russia has long history of manipulating its numbers. For example, in 2017 Russia reported 432 mortality case from flu and common cold. In the same year, CDC estimated mortality rate of 61,000 (95% CI 46K-95K) from flu in the US. Either vodka and cabbage are efficacious measured against flu, or Russian state-owned statistics agency spread misinformation. And, surprise surprise, the same agency reports laughable numbers of Covid-2019 cases in Russia now...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 12, 2020, 01:37:39 am
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.

There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.

Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.

I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.

Quote
As for tracking test results... In open countries, like the US, there is the limit on how many positive tests the country can report each day (determined by the number of available test kits, lab throughput, qualification criteria determined by bureaucrats, etc.).

 :bullshit: - there is just a lack of willingness to do so. A resistance to the decentralization of power.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 12, 2020, 01:48:04 am
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.

There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.

Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.

I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.
Because of what we know about the virus (asymptomatic spread, and that the virus can survive for many days outside the host) - I don’t believe that R0 can be dropped below 1.0 by hygiene and social isolation measures alone.

As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 12, 2020, 01:50:35 am
It is because the majority of cases are misconstrued as a common cold or flu, and there are not enough testing kits available, that nobody can really know whether they actually DO have a common cold/flu (which has a 0.5% mortality or lower) or if they have COVID-19 (with it's 3%+ mortality). Therefore, community spread is inevitable if life goes on as usual. The majority of the population will continue to work through a cold and possibly a flu, spreading it to everyone else in their workplace, or students in school, going to social gatherings and so on.

One thing COVID-19 has demonstrated is that it is very contagious and while not particularly deadly (compared to SARS 10%, MERS 50%, Ebola 90% and so on) the fact that it can disseminate to so many people over a short rate of time, and has several times the death rate of the flu (although the number may be overblown because we don't include milder unknown cases), it can still be devastating to our healthcare systems. We already have 30,000 - 60,000 people die each year from the flu, despite vaccination attempts and only a 0.5% mortality (somewhere less than 1% and some say as little as 0.1%).

Now we have a virus that is known to be more deadly than flu by at least several times (estimates vary from 2-3x to over 10x) and absolutely no vaccine, no immunity, and added ON TOP OF all the other cold/flu viruses still out there. So we are battling multiple viruses and particularly nasty ones at that superimposed on each other. Yes the majority of people will be fine but those that aren't will completely overload our healthcare systems. To prevent the collateral damage and keep healthcare systems intact for all the other problems people face, these somewhat draconian measures are the only way to help delay/prevent the inevitable... so at least things "ease in" a little more slowly. Will it cause the "case growth rate" to plateau and reach <1.0x, probably not. But lower rate is better than higher.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 12, 2020, 02:26:09 am
Today....
EU-US travel banned restricted for 30 Days.
NBA cancels all games after tonight until ?

Seems like it was just a few days ago, it was "I'm not worried at all" and "I've heard we will have a vaccine in 3-4 months".

I don't think it is panic at all, I think that denial and wishful thinking eventually gives way to the harshness of reality. Still, I am optimistic, I think that, in the US, by May, we will be seeing a very different picture.

Like you and everyone else, there are only a few things that I can do and not do, but I can assure you that I am going to hold those that I believe have performed in, what I can only describe as shamefully incompetent manner, accountable...in the voting booth.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 12, 2020, 02:55:59 am
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 12, 2020, 03:15:38 am
As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.

Dear armchair foreign dictatorship governments expert,

can you fix the chaos and shit in your own backyard before embarking on a global war on reports from other countries?

For a reason I think you can't.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: raptor1956 on March 12, 2020, 03:27:49 am
I wonder when the other shoe is going to drop in the USA and likely in many other nations that have dropped the ball on this virus.  We've been hearing about testing kits in the millions for a while now but still the number of people tested in the US in total is less than other parts of the world test in a day.  The lawyer at the center of the New Rochelle outbreak commuted to Manhattan on public transportation for days after being effected so it seems highly likely that NYC will see an outbreak far greater the New Rochelle.

The fact that face masks are hard to come by and that medical professionals are finding them hard to get is stark testimony to the shortsightedness of too many these days -- how is it that they have so little stock of items that are critical in times like this.  Sadly, the response was not ... we need more masks ASAP ...  it was ... you don't need them -- tell that to the Chinese.  When you lie to the public but do so for what seems to be a reasonable cause you are still lying to the public.  The idea that a virus that you get by breathing in exhaled droplets is unaffected by wearing is mask is ludicrous and those that say that lose there credibility.  This is not the time for medical professionals to lose credibility.

In western nations where money matters more than life there are many workers that either go to work or go without a paycheck and risk losing there job -- for them the decision is simple ... if I'm still ambulatory I'm going to work.  Business owners are not inclined to increase paid time off, even big businesses worth a trillion.  If people at risk keep going to work when them should stay home because staying home means losing a paycheck or a job then the idea of social isolation is but a joke.

But as bad as all that is the fact that we may well be at this place for 6 months or even more than a year will be a test of the planet right up there with the World Wars, indeed, this is a third World War of sorts.


Brian
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 12, 2020, 03:31:52 am
As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.

You are full of it. If the numbers are really high, Chinese government won't allow its massive population to go back to work.
I just spent my yesterday in HQB, and it was packed with people. You do have to show that controversial QR code which encodes your location for the past month, and if your temperature is good and the code is green, everyone is allowed into any building.
The subway is crowd enough to crush people into pancakes. That I learned the hard way on line 4.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 12, 2020, 03:41:38 am
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

I'm not trying to pick a fight or even be horribly contentious, but what is panic and what is an[IN]excusable lack of planning, implementation and clear and concise direction?

To me, buying up sanitizer is NOT panic, it is entirely rational. Communicating sound changes in "public" hygiene is not panic. Explaining why washing your hands is so important, is not panic. Trying to force people to not touch their face, and thinking that is going to make the difference - is poor messaging - especially since we can all watch video of the people telling us not to touch your face actually touching their face as they are telling us not to do so (it is really hard for humans not to touch their face and that is hardly news).

Botching up testing instead of ramping up capability in the FREAKING MONTH that we had and after earlier experience (SARS) [https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-coronavirus-testing/ (https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-coronavirus-testing/) ]is not panic, it is a failure in performance.

Botching up the messaging around testing and botching up anything remotely like a reasonable communication of facts, and instead changing the message evry few days, contradicting what was stated earlier and doing it over and over again is not, in itself panic, it creates confusion and chaos and.....panic.

Planning on the fly for something like this is not going to cut it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 12, 2020, 03:52:06 am
If you are interested in looking at the family tree of the COVID-19 causing virus, along with where it came from or spread to then have I been shown the site for you!

https://nextstrain.org/ncov



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 12, 2020, 03:56:37 am
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

We can blame ourselves. For two reasons:

1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience. I try to buy Australian made wherever possible. But with electronic components, that is impossible because nothing is made here. Hard to believe we once made transistors and 7400 series IC's right here in Melbourne. https://www.radiomuseum.org/dsp_hersteller_detail.cfm?Company_id=14523 (https://www.radiomuseum.org/dsp_hersteller_detail.cfm?Company_id=14523)

2. We were warned for the last 10 years by scientists that a global pandemic was imminent, and that global travel would be a major factor for a perfect storm. Almost no-one listened. This virus should be of no surprise really. Its a bit bloody late now. I listened to the pandemic warnings, hence I have plenty of masks I bought FIVE YEARS AGO.  It was our Prime Minister Scott Morrison's stupid comments that triggered the panic buying of toilet paper and other necessities.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 12, 2020, 04:13:57 am
1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience.

What slave labor? I'm not aware of any other than mandatory labor in jails, which they get paid significantly less than open labor market.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: raptor1956 on March 12, 2020, 04:45:31 am
1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience.

What slave labor? I'm not aware of any other than mandatory labor in jails, which they get paid significantly less than open labor market.


Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.  Many are domestic workers working in the homes of the wealthy, many are sex workers tricked into it, many others are forced to work in small and medium sized business -- many coming from China but Central America as well.  So, comments about slavery in China seem a bit misplaced when the western world is not without its issues.


Brian
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 12, 2020, 04:47:47 am
Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.

Google H1B slave and find a new world ;).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 12, 2020, 04:49:02 am
It looks like Tom Hanks and his spouse have COVID-19 acquired when shooting a film in Australia (Dave I hope you are staying safe):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html)

(https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/tom-1.jpg?w=500&h=280&crop=1)

Once Kevin Bacon gets it... all of Hollywood is screwed!!!   :-DD

https://oracleofbacon.org/ (https://oracleofbacon.org/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 12, 2020, 04:55:11 am
I try to buy Australian made wherever possible.

Boomerang ?  :-DD

Genuine Aborigin's made is much more expensive, there must be cheaper China made alternative too tight ?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 12, 2020, 08:53:42 am

It looks like Tom Hanks and his spouse have COVID-19 acquired when shooting a film in Australia (Dave I hope you are staying safe):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html)

(https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/tom-1.jpg?w=500&h=280&crop=1)

Once Kevin Bacon gets it... all of Hollywood is screwed!!!   :-DD

https://oracleofbacon.org/ (https://oracleofbacon.org/)

Filming in Australia on the cheap during a worldwide outbreak, is like a box of chocolates..  :scared:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Moshly on March 12, 2020, 08:54:26 am
If you want no BS reporting I seriously suggest everybody check out Dr. John Campbell on youtube

update from the 11th ->
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzXQ6Bu9JVI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzXQ6Bu9JVI)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 12, 2020, 10:28:04 am
I try to buy Australian made wherever possible.

Boomerang ?  :-DD

Genuine Aborigin's made is much more expensive, there must be cheaper China made alternative too tight ?

Try furniture. You pay more, get much better quality and the furniture is not fumigated. Quality is remembered long after the price is forgotten.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 12, 2020, 12:45:42 pm
The subway is crowd enough to crush people into pancakes. That I learned the hard way on line 4.

Somebody cover blueskull in butter and maple syrup, then perhaps the 'merkins will like him.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 12, 2020, 01:25:13 pm
If you want no BS reporting I seriously suggest everybody check out Dr. John Campbell on youtube

update from the 11th ->


I like Dr John's style, very informative. Some of his maths is wrong but that's a minor quibble.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 12, 2020, 02:42:17 pm
You can't stop it anymore, everyone will get it sooner or later.
The only thing is to keep the numbers steady without extreme outburst that overflow the healthcare system,
so that for those vulnerable who really need good healthcare they still can get it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 12, 2020, 03:12:36 pm
There is a saying the Generals are always fighting the last war, the same is true here. The epidemic action plans for emerging new diseases are based on experience with MERS, SARS, etc, but Covid-19 is not SARS or MERS.

It is expected that novel pathogens are detected in animal populations first, these are culled before animal to human transmission occurs. That did not happen with Covid-19, human-human transmission seem to appear out of nowhere. It is expected that contact tracing and screening travellers is sufficient for containment, that didn't work with Covid-19.

Missteps were certainly made by several countries handling the outbreak, but many people are blaming them for poor planning or execution, when the real problem is the particular viral characteristics don't match what was planned for. Hopefully we will learn for the next time.

Unfortunately, natural selection will always create things that evade our attempts to control them, it's what Nature does and she has had billions of years of practice.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DBecker on March 12, 2020, 03:15:52 pm

Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.  Many are domestic workers working in the homes of the wealthy, many are sex workers tricked into it, many others are forced to work in small and medium sized business -- many coming from China but Central America as well.  So, comments about slavery in China seem a bit misplaced when the western world is not without its issues.

You should mix up the news sources you believe.

There are very few workers trapped in those conditions.  Sure, they show up in the news, but that is because they are the rare exception rather than the rule.  And media (rightly) puts the stories at the top (complete with clickbait headlines for weeks).

H1B workers are much more numerous, but that is far from slavery.  Just exploitation.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 03:18:40 pm
Another day, another data point as the virus steadily marches up the exponential curve here in the US.  As of yesterday fear has suddenly prompted policy makers into action.  There are new international travel restrictions.  Universities are closing.  Grade schools are winding down activities and telling parents to prepare for closures.  Finally we have policy makers responding.  Unfortunately, it may be too late.  There are still lots of misleading instructions and advice being put out by community, press, and government leaders.  Still many are saying the risk is low.  Clearly few understand what 'exponential' means.  If they did, they would see that on the current growth track the spread could result in about a million deaths in the US by about 30 days from now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: unknownparticle on March 12, 2020, 03:43:24 pm

Also, let's not forget about ~40,000 traffic fatalities each year (USA) that we are completely OK with...

Traffic accidents aren't infectious though, just a matter of human error, coincidence and statistical events.  I did have to check that figure as I gasped when I read it!!  There are less than 2000 annually in the UK and given that the population of the USA is about 5 times that of the UK, it makes that number horrific!  Especially as we have massively more congested roads, higher highway speed limits and generally more aggressive drivers. Does it include gunshot road rage victims?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 12, 2020, 03:56:34 pm

Today, The  "Galapagar Marquise's and Equalty Minister has given positive in COVID19 and her couple the Galapagar Marquess's and 4th viceminister is at quarantine. The trouble is this couple may have infected  to 23 minister the three viceministes , the president , until the Queen and the King.  On resume, we are on a ship without captain.

Furthermore, the chinese have fear the spaniards and they begi to run away to China :wtf: :wtf:.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 12, 2020, 04:04:32 pm
https://www.outsideonline.com/2410336/everest-china-side-closes-coronavirus (https://www.outsideonline.com/2410336/everest-china-side-closes-coronavirus)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 12, 2020, 04:20:23 pm
Another day, another data point as the virus steadily marches up the exponential curve here in the US.  As of yesterday fear has suddenly prompted policy makers into action.  There are new international travel restrictions.  Universities are closing.  Grade schools are winding down activities and telling parents to prepare for closures.  Finally we have policy makers responding.  Unfortunately, it may be too late.  There are still lots of misleading instructions and advice being put out by community, press, and government leaders.  Still many are saying the risk is low.  Clearly few understand what 'exponential' means.  If they did, they would see that on the current growth track the spread could result in about a million deaths in the US by about 30 days from now.

Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 12, 2020, 04:28:24 pm
Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.

I would recommend against combining a linear and a log scale in the same chart. And I certainly recommend against showing a spline interpolation through set of discrete datapoints, even more so when done without showing the underlying datapoints themselves. That (a) suggests a resolution which is not there, and (b) suggests spurious dips and peaks, which are artefacts from the interpolation.

Electronics content: Rigol is apparently guilty of the latter sin in their scopes.  ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 12, 2020, 04:36:50 pm
How dare 'we' pathetic Ausies have the foresight to limit travel back then, instead of listening to murderous dictators in China...............

Don't worry, Australia is getting colder while the normal side of the earth is getting warmer. Better safe than sorry, unfortunately sometimes safe is not enough.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 05:24:31 pm
Quote
Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.

I'm using the data from the worldometer website.  We have to take the data with a grain of salt because we know it's understated due to limited testing.  But to get a glimpse of what's to come, it does the job.  (Though I sometimes wish I hadn't looked and seen such a frightening picture.) 

Those who criticize the chart are missing the point.  This data is publicly available and anyone can use it to make their own projection in whatever format they prefer.  It doesn't change the fact that spread is exponential and many people may suffer and/or die.

We all need to recognize what's coming and do what we can to protect our families, communities, and ourselves.  Our only control over this plague is to slow the spread -- which will reduce the strain on health services and, thus, save lives.  Each and every one of us can take actions to slow the spread.  Trying to assign blame will do nothing to slow the spread.  Cooperation, improved hygienic practices and social isolation are our greatest tools at this point.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 12, 2020, 05:43:47 pm
Sadly governments are doing very badly. In the UK it has been announced that we are moving from the "containment" stage to the "delay" stage. Well fuck me if someone can tell me what he "containment" plan was other than to do nothing I'd be very grateful! So far as i can tell it was do nothing but ask people to stop panic buying loo roll. Public Health England, the people telling the government how to stop this are having a mass gathering of employees from more than one location for training. I mean are we stupid or something? apparently yes!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 12, 2020, 05:55:49 pm
Those who criticize the chart are missing the point.  This data is publicly available and anyone can use it to make their own projection in whatever format they prefer.  It doesn't change the fact that spread is exponential and many people may suffer and/or die.

I was only criticizing metrologist's way of plotting the data. Didn't mean to question your point, and I don't think I said anything to that effect.

I have been looking at the German data in much the same way, and have pointed out the (so far) unmitigated exponential growth in a couple of posts here. In Germany, the rate has even been slightly higher -- doubling pretty exactly every 2.0 days. No idea whether that difference is due to a higher rate of tested and detected cases, a significant influx of infected travellers from Italy, or other reasons.

The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 12, 2020, 06:10:02 pm
Sadly governments are doing very badly.

It takes special "government grade idiocy" to handle this as badly as some governments have been doing. I think so far, of those I have heard about, the US takes the biscuit:

Quote from: https://boingboing.net/2020/03/11/censoring-coronavirus.html
The Donald Trump White House told the federal Department of Health and Human Services to classify all information from top-level coronavirus meetings.

The decision to keep all coronavirus deliberations classified made it hard for public health and medical professionals to access vital information. The restricted flow hampered the U.S. government’s response to the contagion, Reuters reports, citing four Trump administration officials.

“The officials said that dozens of classified discussions about such topics as the scope of infections, quarantines and travel restrictions have been held since mid-January in a high-security meeting room at the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS),” report Wednesday Aram Roston and Marisa Taylor at Reuters:

    Staffers without security clearances, including government experts, were excluded from the interagency meetings, which included video conference calls, the sources said.

    “We had some very critical people who did not have security clearances who could not go,” one official said. “These should not be classified meetings. It was unnecessary.”

    The sources said the National Security Council (NSC), which advises the president on security issues, ordered the classification.”This came directly from the White House,” one official said.

    The White House insistence on secrecy at the nation’s premier public health organization, which has not been previously disclosed, has put a lid on certain information - and potentially delayed the response to the crisis.


In the UK it has been announced that we are moving from the "containment" stage to the "delay" stage. Well fuck me if someone can tell me what he "containment" plan was other than to do nothing I'd be very grateful!

Sorry, can't t help there. As far as I can tell the government didn't have a plan. Fortunately the NHS was a bit more on the ball. I think the "containment" state is just a bit of back-naming for "We'll contain ourselves until someone tells us what to do".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 12, 2020, 06:14:33 pm
My place of work they shifted to two teams work, one team may work at the office on even weeks the other on odd weeks. Temperature check at the entrance, cafeteria closed, not allowed to use the keyboard and mouse on the shared office space, no meetings >5 people, and work as much as possible from home.
Never had this in 25 yrs on the job.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 12, 2020, 06:15:01 pm
Well I think Trump pretty much declared himself an expert in covid-19 so, sorted!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 12, 2020, 06:20:23 pm
My place of work they shifted to two teams work, one team may work at the office on even weeks the other on odd weeks. Temperature check at the entrance, cafeteria closed, not allowed to use the keyboard and mouse on the shared office space, no meetings >5 people, and work as much as possible from home.
Never had this in 25 yrs on the job.

I doubt my employer even has a backup plan. We struggle to get our IT to work as it is with the IT staff located at our parent company. I am one of few with a company laptop with emails already on it and i could borrow out the only 3D CAD floating licence the company has and go home but i mostly use KiCad at work and the libraries live on my portable hard drive anyway. The mere fact that I can in 30 secands take out the 3D CAD licence is only because I made them put the floating licence on the laptop for me.

Electronics wise I am better set up an home than at work.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 12, 2020, 06:29:57 pm
Yes well issues do occurr, VPN service overcrowded so not everyone can get in.
People that can't reach colleagues anymore.
Ever tried a skype call with more than ten colleagues?  |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 06:37:08 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)

We now know that the virus had already made a few victims there (Bergamo and Codogno areas) before anybody noticed that.
Just too many people do not make the due vaccination against ordinary flue so at first they thought it was just that, ordinary flue.

In the meantime the virus had already taken foot spreading to many unknowingly people.
In Italy, we now have more than 15000 cases.
Since they are testing just people who shows symptoms, that likely means that there are already 50k-200k cases who got the virus and have never shown any symptom or are yet at a very early stage of the disease.

Average incubation time is 5.1 days, while 14 days of quarantine covers just 99% of cases (as recently reported by John Hopkins University).
So we have to wait a few days to see if the measures taken so far are working.

While COVID-19 is not as bad as SARS or MERS, it will kill many people and will cause severe problems to the economy.
It will be fine if we can learn from that (at a regional level, e.g. EU or better at the whole world one) and get ready for the next wave.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 07:02:13 pm
Quote
The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.
It's interesting that I've seen very few projections on the internet and none in the press.  I think humans, in general, have a hard time appreciating the implication of exponential spread.  The more we can give people a glimpse of what's to come, the more willing they may be to change behaviors.  And there's really only two things they need to do, or even can do to slow the spread: 1) wash their hands frequently, 2) go home and stay there.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:04:53 pm
by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/)

I'm not Trump, but you do behave like him. I never wrote that the virus will magically disappear in May.
It is high likely that COVID-19 is here to stay, together with the other coronaviruses which cause flue-like symptoms since centuries:
- Human Coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E)
- Human Coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43)
- Human Coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63)
- Human Coronavirus HKU1 (HCoV-HFU1)

By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus, but I'm afraid dr Zhong Nanshan might be wrong pretending it will completely disappear (like SARS) in June.
It is a pandemy. I suspect it will just spread in the other hemisphere and then come back here next winter.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:15:09 pm
"The virus should be much weaker" and 'the virus is less likely to be transmitted in warmer weather' - the latter being what Snopes considers - are not the same thing.

The integrity of the capsid in the air is strongly related to both temperature and RH. So in the Death Valley, although the temperature is quite high it might survive a bit longer than near the beach during later spring in a temperate climate.  :)

Quote
There's a real possibility that the virus in circulation may be less virulent by May by a combination of two reasons: (1) Coronaviruses are highly mutable, there's a very high probability of new variants emerging during a pandemic, (2) viruses/bacteria/parasites that kill their hosts are less likely to spread than less lethal variants. This was actually seen, and confirmed, during one of the earlier flu pandemics (I don't offhand remember which one) where later in the pandemic the original flu variant died off and a mutated, less virulent, variant continued to spread - the death rate fell while infection rates continued at the same level. Although this is a real possibility, it's not a effect that any plan to control the disease ought to rely on.

You're probably referring to H1N1 AKA 2009 pig flue. Yes, when a virus is too good at killing its host it has less chances to spread around.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 07:16:28 pm
At the current rate of spread in the US, herd immunity will slow the growth before the summer arrives.  Experts are advising that at 60%-80% infection rate, there is enough immunity to slow the spread in the population.  The current growth pattern in the US will put us at that point in late April.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:26:21 pm
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemics in the northern hemisphere usually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).

the protein shell (capsid) lasts longer in COLD (i.e. lower temperature) and DRY weather. Besides that, cold weather causes vasoconstriction of peripheral veins and so the immune system is less efficient at reacting to the virus in the nose (or in the eyes if you transfer the virus from a contaminated surface).
I think that a good mask (FFP3) while only partially stops the virus (it is around 0.1µm), creates a hot and wet micro-climate where the virus shell is more prone to degradation and the nose blood circulation works better.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:39:12 pm
Recent figures from China are laughable, and they cannot be rationally explained.

Given the harsh measures the Chinese government took (difficult to implement in other countries) those figures are believable like are those of South Corea.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 12, 2020, 07:49:08 pm
Quote
The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.
It's interesting that I've seen very few projections on the internet and none in the press.  I think humans, in general, have a hard time appreciating the implication of exponential spread.  The more we can give people a glimpse of what's to come, the more willing they may be to change behaviors.  And there's really only two things they need to do, or even can do to slow the spread: 1) wash their hands frequently, 2) go home and stay there.
The major problem we see is the vast majority of people are absolutely irresponsible by default (the people anywhere in the World). They simply do not care, unless forced by pretty draconian measures (or by totalitarian dictatorships). And they will not change their behavior, I am afraid.
I think only fast advances in vaccines manufacturing may save future generations from disasters. They have to be able to produce a new vaccine within a month - a nice challenge for talented scientists and high-tech companies, imho.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 12, 2020, 08:14:56 pm
I was only criticizing metrologist's way of plotting the data. Didn't mean to question your point, and I don't think I said anything to that effect.

Here is the way I had the chart before I saw the log scale, so all I did was change my scale to log. It was interesting because we use the same data, but my chart did not fit a 2.4 day doubling time. I'm sure there are a dozen other things you can pick on about my chart. This one is the exact same data, just changed the scale.

Of course I expect the case curve to deviate from the extrapolated curve, and of course the data is very limited and not truly representative. I was reading that the US has a capacity of about 1000 tests per day max (lab analysis), and the test methods are unproven. They can give all the millions of tests they have, but it cannot be processed that fast.

Some fun reading that crossed my path..

Interesting panel discussion:
#coronavirus info:
[bracketed text is by panel attendee] otherwise pretty much quotes from panelists

“University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19
March 10, 2020

• Panelists
• Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford). Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
• Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics
• Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist.
• Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist.
• Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc

What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.
• Top takeaways
• At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.
• Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
• How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
• We are moving from containment to care.
• We in the US are currently where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
• 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
• [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
• The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
• This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
• The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]
• Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
• I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.

• What should we do now? What are you doing for your family?
• Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
• How long does the virus last?
• On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
• The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.
• Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.
• We have cancelled business travel.
• Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face.
• Stockpile your critical prescription medications. Many pharma supply chains run through China. Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing.
• Pneumonia shot might be helpful. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
• Get a flu shot next fall. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
• We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”. CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.
• We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes. Then are not letting them out of the house. The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in.
• Three routes of infection
• Hand to mouth / face
• Aerosol transmission
• Fecal oral route

• What if someone is sick?
• If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate. There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home. Most cases are mild. But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.
• If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER.
• There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19. The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease. ie to prevent sepsis.
• If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China. Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll. Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19. If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines. [More I found online.]
• Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults?
• Your immune system declines past age 50
• Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness. These conditions are higher in older adults.
• Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults.

• What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19?
• Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful. Here’s why.
• Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test. No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”.
• A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA. However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives.
• The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits.
• While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing.
• The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day. For the nation.
• Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.” And certification. ie it won’t happen soon.
• UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits. But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day. And are not clinically certified.
• Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger.

• How well is society preparing for the impact?
• Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak. UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot. They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus. They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility.
• If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities. But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected.
• School closures are one the biggest societal impacts. We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects. If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services.
• Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis. They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months. Other solutions will have to be found.
• What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months?
• Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed.
• Kids home due to school closures
• [Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office. When he returned we asked what the call covered.] The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action. The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions. ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people.

• Where do you find reliable news?
• The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site. Which posts daily updates. The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email. [I tried and the page times out due to high demand. After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]
• The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.

• Observations on China
• Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19.
• While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent.
• Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand. Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks. Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.
• Early on no one had info on COVID-19. So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime.

• Every few years there seems another: SARS, Ebola, MERS, H1N1, COVID-19. Growing strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease?
• "We’ve been in a back and forth battle against viruses for a million years."
• But it would sure help if every country would shut down their wet markets.
• As with many things, the worst impact of COVID-19 will likely be in the countries with the least resources, eg Africa. See article on Wired magazine on sequencing of virus from Cambodia.”
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 08:43:22 pm
I think it would be interesting to try to project when we would run out of hospital beds based on this growth pattern.  A number of factors would come into play, such as number of beds, % in use, turnover of beds, location of beds vs. hotspots, etc.  Just eyeballing the numbers without careful calculations and by making broad assumptions, it looks to me like the US health system could be overwhelmed early next month.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 12, 2020, 08:58:30 pm
Total cases is a bit pointless.  80% of the total cases have recovered.  5% or so are dead, leaving only 15% actually infected and infectous.

The figure you want to look at is "Active Cases".  These are the number of people actually with the virus.  It's important as if that number is rising, it's getting worse, if it's falling, it's getting better.

Total cases will ALWAYS rise, this is why the media are using it to scare people into the zombie apocalypse.

Just been for my weekly shopping.  No loo roll, because of mass insanity.  No pasta, rice, bread and the tinned food and frozen isles completely cleared out!

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 12, 2020, 09:12:34 pm
The number of infected is XX times higher than those reported by WHO, imho.
Those undocumented are the people with none symptoms, with symptoms similar to light flu (especially when vaccinated against flu), and people who hide the symptoms.
Thus the 40-70% infected the US or Germany indicate as the possible result could be easily achievable.
What is reported are cases which were tested. And they test only a really small sample of population (those who show symptoms, or those who are suspect). Most states in EU do not test people who stay home with mild symptoms "similar to flu".
After this pandemic they will find antibodies for the covid19 in 70% of the World population, I bet.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 12, 2020, 09:13:58 pm
Yes the bigger problem is the idiots panic buying. I have several weeks of food already. I will buy no more.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 12, 2020, 09:21:16 pm
Total cases is a bit pointless.  80% of the total cases have recovered.  5% or so are dead, leaving only 15% actually infected and infectous.

The figure you want to look at is "Active Cases".  These are the number of people actually with the virus.  It's important as if that number is rising, it's getting worse, if it's falling, it's getting better.

In the exponential growth phase, with the number of total cases doubling every 2 to 3 days as seen in most affected countries these days, the vast majority of the total cases will be "active". At any time, 80% of the total cases will be cases only detected within the last week.

Exponential growth is a bitch, and can be counter-intuitive. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 12, 2020, 09:22:35 pm
Anecdotally, the virus appears to be rampant in France despite the statistics. I just found out a relative in France has got the corona virus. Also, my daughter lives in France (she does not have the virus) and said some client walked into her work and told the judge she has the virus and will spread it on purpose because she has contempt for the French court system. The woman was arrested and tested as positive. Seems like the virus can be used as a weapon.

By the way, is it "coronavirus" or "corona virus"? If seems both terms are used, with the former being more popular. It seems the bad spelling is spreading faster than the virus itself. Why would Anglophones join the two distinct words together when there is no reason to do so? Itseemsratheroddtome.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 12, 2020, 09:38:55 pm
Yes the bigger problem is the idiots panic buying. I have several weeks of food already. I will buy no more.

This is why I now refer to the whole thing as the zombie apocalypse.  Not because of the virus, but because of how people are reacting to it.  I can actually see it become quite dangerous to be out in public in the coming days.  The virus you can defend against with some sense and hygiene.  The idiots will be much harder to defend against if they go postal.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 12, 2020, 10:24:01 pm
By the way, is it "coronavirus" or "corona virus"?

It's a "coronavirus", one of the family of coronaviruses which contains about 40 species. What we're loosely calling Covid-19 is strictly the name of the disease it causes and the virus causing it is SARS-CoV-2 a strain of the species  "Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus", subgenus Sarbecovirus, genus Betacoronavirus, family "Coronaviridae", order Nidovirales, relam Riboviria.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 12, 2020, 10:26:38 pm
I think it would be interesting to try to project when we would run out of hospital beds based on this growth pattern.  A number of factors would come into play, such as number of beds, % in use, turnover of beds, location of beds vs. hotspots, etc.  Just eyeballing the numbers without careful calculations and by making broad assumptions, it looks to me like the US health system could be overwhelmed early next month.

Here's an article (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/) that "runs the numbers" both for (U.S.) hospital beds and face masks--the two resources that are most likely to be overwhelmed when/if things get worse.

Quote
If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 12, 2020, 10:32:46 pm
One can sense at street level from listening in on hot wind powered chats, that another Idiot Apocalypse is slowly gaining some ground,
but so far many are still so-o-0 unsure,  :-//
and fear the embarrassment of being fooled again  :-[  more than they do a few sniffles, headaches, skin rash, dunny runs.. or even death itself  :scared:

That's a good thing imho, and keeps the rabble under control till this blows over and the next one kicks off.. in 2022 ?  :popcorn:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: shakalnokturn on March 12, 2020, 11:34:53 pm
Anecdotally, the virus appears to be rampant in France despite the statistics. I just found out a relative in France has got the corona virus. Also, my daughter lives in France (she does not have the virus) and said some client walked into her work and told the judge she has the virus and will spread it on purpose because she has contempt for the French court system. The woman was arrested and tested as positive. Seems like the virus can be used as a weapon.

By the way, is it "coronavirus" or "corona virus"? If seems both terms are used, with the former being more popular. It seems the bad spelling is spreading faster than the virus itself. Why would Anglophones join the two distinct words together when there is no reason to do so? Itseemsratheroddtome.

France is minimising the impact, economical reasons and upcoming elections this weekend.
People who lived in France through the Chernobyl event should have learnt how much they can't trust their government and media to protect and inform them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 12, 2020, 11:38:36 pm
The thing I'm most curious to see is when people get tired of hearing about it and give up and return to business as usual. I mean this stay at home thing is feasible for some people, I can work from home indefinitely and now my employer has mandated it but most people cannot, they can stay home for a week or two but the virus could easily be spreading for months so this is not sustainable.

I don't know when, but I would bet that at some point covid-19 is not new and shiny anymore, it will have infected or killed enough people that it will become another faceless statistic and everyone will be obsessing over something else.

I'm hopeful that a lasting result of this will be an increase in telecommuting as companies pushed into offering it due to the currently unusual circumstances will see that for many jobs it is a waste of resources to require everyone to come in and sit together in the same office. With the communication tools we have available now all I need is my laptop and a decent internet connection, my physical location is irrelevant. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 12, 2020, 11:42:40 pm
I am sick to death of hearing about it.   :rant:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 13, 2020, 12:00:30 am
I am sick to death of hearing about it.   :rant:
Hopefully not literally Muttley. Keep safe mate.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 13, 2020, 12:07:25 am
I am sick to death of hearing about it.   :rant:

Queue up mate  :D

Sicker to find no dunny paper anywhere because of too many idiots

and people that were normal ( ::)) a few weeks ago getting all so-o-o grim, serious and 'informed and updated' about it if some humor gets tossed in..

Image all these idiots in a real shtf situation,
they'll stay in a burning building about to collapse, breathing through improvised folded dunny paper 'filters',
because it's still a better punt than escaping and risk 'catching something deadly'    :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 13, 2020, 11:57:20 am
The Greek Orthodox church say that taking the communion wine from the same common spoon won't spread the virus... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117). Is this God's protection of the faithful, or the 13% ethanol content of the wine preventing spread of the virus?

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 13, 2020, 12:53:45 pm
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,

So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.

Sorry, but the meme that "the virus will reduce by itself in time" is just bullshit, people are just using it to justify not doing anything. The only reduction effects will be herd immunity, when sufficient people have been infected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 13, 2020, 12:56:58 pm
The Greek Orthodox church say that taking the communion wine from the same common spoon won't spread the virus... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117). Is this God's protection of the faithful, or the 13% ethanol content of the wine preventing spread of the virus?

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

Do we really need an excuse for a glass of wine etc. ??   ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 13, 2020, 01:19:09 pm
The Greek Orthodox church say that taking the communion wine from the same common spoon won't spread the virus... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117). Is this God's protection of the faithful, or the 13% ethanol content of the wine preventing spread of the virus?

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

No. The infection route for this is mucosal, so if you wanted to sterilise food as you ate it you'd need to be swilling overproof rum with every mouthful. The accumulated hangovers would be worse than the disease symptoms for most people. Food's pretty sanitary for the most part. Anything that is over 70ºC for a few minutes is going to kill most bacteria and viruses, those that don't get killed by cooking tend not to survive the 1.5 - 3.5 pH HCl in your stomach. It's hard to get an infection of any kind from food. Most food poisoning is that, poisoning by excreted toxins from bacteria when previously cooked food isn't re-heated for hot enough and long enough to denature the toxins (which tend to be proteinaceous in nature).

The kind of alcohol concentration needed to be an effective biocide is over 50% by volume, ideally 70%. Wine most certainly won't cut it, nor fortified wines, and most spirits at 40% by volume are going to be at best partially effective.

So, as far as partakers in communion wine and wafers being in the clear from cross-infection, to quote Robert Heinlein, think of it as evolution in action.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 13, 2020, 01:25:16 pm

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

Err, no. It does not work like that. If the virus enters a mucus part of your body it's in your body, not your gut. Your gut is also one of the harshest chemical environments known to man.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 13, 2020, 01:38:37 pm
[...] by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Recent studies suggest otherwise. In fact experts over here expect the climax in infections by June/July, in high summer. Hence all effort right now concentrates on slowing down the spread to a rate that can be handled by our medical system.

The consensus seems to be that the case fatality will be quite low if we manage to not overflow the intensive care capabilities. If you look at China, the high fatality numbers are dominated by Hubei province, where especially in Wuhan the intensive care capacities were overwhelmed. In the rest of China, the case fatality rate was much lower.

In Germany right now we have over 3000 reported cases and 7 deaths (0.2%) but that's overly optimistic right now, IMHO. Let's see how the numbers develop in the coming two weeks, we know that fatality trails reported by about two weeks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 13, 2020, 01:40:22 pm

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

Err, no. It does not work like that. If the virus enters a mucus part of your body it's in your body, not your gut. Your gut is also one of the harshest chemical environments known to man.

Hydrochloric acid...   If you ever tried working with that stuff, you get impressed with how the body manages to keep it contained without burning holes in your body!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 13, 2020, 01:51:05 pm
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,

So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.

I hate to bring fact rather than rhetoric into things, but you do realise that SARS and Covid-19 are caused by the same species of virus, don't you. A different strain, but the same species. In the ~30,000 base pairs of their genome over 99% is identical (which is much more significant than 99% similarity in a animal where there are billions of base pairs). So drawing parallels from what is know about the long term behaviour of SARS is quite valid. It's about the same as making predictions on the biology of Dobermann Pinschers based on the biology of German Shepherds, both different but closely related strains of the same species.

Between 28th Feb and today 350 separately produced genome sequences have been published for variants of the SARS virus SARS-CoV-2 (aka Covid-19). It seems to be acquiring about 1-2 observed mutations a month. Some of these mutations will make it more virulent and pathogenic, some will make it less, some will not change it's virulence or pathogenicity. More pathogenic variants kill their hosts faster, so are less successful in evolutionary terms and as a consequence die out faster. The pattern of viruses mutating and less pathogenic, more likely to spread variants arising and gradually dominating the infection spread is well known.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 13, 2020, 02:18:20 pm

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

Err, no. It does not work like that. If the virus enters a mucus part of your body it's in your body, not your gut. Your gut is also one of the harshest chemical environments known to man.

Hydrochloric acid...   If you ever tried working with that stuff, you get impressed with how the body manages to keep it contained without burning holes in your body!

Yep and one can also be impressed when something like H. pylori comes around, destroys that containment lining and *poof* an ulcer...not because you worried about the mortgage but because the marvelous engineering can, on occasion, be defeated by other marvelous engineering.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 13, 2020, 03:29:03 pm
Quote
A few days ago I brought a couple of large toilet roll packs and could have easily been labelled a hoarder, how dare I buy two right?

Ignore the noise.  Just prepare.  If you have to be isolated for weeks, you won't need to go out to buy toilet paper.  If you stay home and out of the chain of transmission, you'll be helping save lives.  Those calling others hoarders are just people who didn't have the foresight to plan and prepare as well as you :scared:.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 13, 2020, 04:07:06 pm
Ode to toilet paper (spanish version)

Pa, pa, pa, pa, paper, paper,
paper, paper, paper, paper, paper, paper
paper, paper, paper, paper, paper, paper
paper, paper, sweet satin,
you'll give us pleasure
paper, paper, without end.
 
Paper, paper
Of color gray, loud red white and blue, lemon green
is your essential purpose to caress with softness.
You always alert serving the people
without distinguising analphabet or intellectual,
Private or general, proletariat or capital.
just at time of evacuating the classes to fight
just at time of evacuating the classes to fight
to... fight...
 
Is your cruel destiny, is your disgraceful fate
when they used you to violate your punishment
of sending you to the sewer by flushing.
And is your wise rebelliosness to block the pipe
as a final revenge.
Humble, delicated, and selfless paper,
you have always been despised and mistreated mercilessly.
Loved paper, fellow of the toilet
you must be defended and presented in society.
And recieve the award of some... decoration.
 
Paper, paper, faithful friend.
Because with your exemplary help
we don't have to splash the fingers,
and as proof of good faith
I swear I'll never use
the rough leaves of the ABC.
Only you, Only you, Only you, Solo tú!
And may my yell reach heaven
because you are and you'll be our best friend,
loyal immortal toilet paper
paper, per, per, per...
Glory to the paper.
Glory to the paper, paper,
per, per, per...

https://lyricstranslate.com
https://youtu.be/UNh9RPwUJGg (https://youtu.be/UNh9RPwUJGg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Karel on March 13, 2020, 04:54:39 pm
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 13, 2020, 05:10:36 pm
Deserving of wider circulation:

(https://i.imgur.com/pLwKZOn.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 13, 2020, 05:27:20 pm
Here is another based on earlier Chinese data.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 13, 2020, 05:41:31 pm
With covid19 there is heavy underreporting, imho.
All statistics I've seen are based on "positive tested" vs. mortality.
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
You have to know the number of "infected" vs. fatalities.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 13, 2020, 05:48:34 pm
Well since we can't really test everyone, logistically, it means we look at data we know is valid and extrapolate like usual.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 13, 2020, 05:49:46 pm
With covid19 there is heavy underreporting, imho.
All statistics I've seen are based on "positive tested" vs. mortality.
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
You have to know the number of "infected" vs. fatalities.

Yes, the CFR is not very meaningful at this point. The detected cases are still very few, and biased towards cases with already heavy symptoms, which is likely to bias the CFR at this point.
Many hospitals just don't have the means of testing more people anyway. Those are not instant tests.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 13, 2020, 05:54:56 pm
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.

Wuhan has ALL its population surveyed by community workers, all people with potential symptoms are tested.
The "big crackdown" coincides with the change of criteria which allows negative results with strong symptoms to also be considered confirmed, that's why you see the 14k increase in one day back in a month.
If there is still a great risk of hidden infected cases, Chinese government wouldn't have lifted lock down within Hubei province.
Hubei province is still isolated from other parts of the country, but businesses and inter-city traffics are being gradually resumed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 13, 2020, 05:55:46 pm
Sure, the number of "tested" is say 10ppm of the entire population (in Europe).
From that tested is X "positive".
From that X "positive" is Y "deaths".
Doing fatality rate calculation based on X an Y is  :bullshit: , because "infected" is KK times more than "tested".

After the pandemic "finishes" you may do a research - you have to check the population on the covid19 antibodies - and you will get the number of "infected" Z.
Then you may do the "fatality rate" calculation based on Z and Y.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 13, 2020, 06:16:00 pm
I wonder what effect vaping has on it.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135271/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135271/)

It mentions antimicrobial positives, but not, without access to the full article antiviral, though they do mention an influenza virus test.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 13, 2020, 06:26:54 pm
Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

I wonder what effect vaping has on it.

Now that we have hypothesized about potential health benefits from vaping and drinking alcohol, may I propose a review of the anti-viral effects of sex, drugs, and rock'n'roll?  ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 13, 2020, 06:38:36 pm
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
If there is still a great risk of hidden infected cases, Chinese government wouldn't have lifted lock down within Hubei province.
The "infected cases" are all those with mild or none symptoms, or with symptoms similar to flu treated at home with aspirin. Also people who hide the symptoms. All those "infected" will recover within a week or two without be registered by the authorities. The only sign of covid19 infection are the antibodies in their blood.
For example small children do not show symptoms even infected, experts say. With 300 million children in your country you may have 300 million "infected" and not registered in any statistics (an example only).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 13, 2020, 06:41:38 pm
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
If there is still a great risk of hidden infected cases, Chinese government wouldn't have lifted lock down within Hubei province.
The "infected cases" are all those with mild or none symptoms, or with symptoms similar to flu treated at home with aspirin. Also people who hide the symptoms. All those "infected" will recover within a week or two without be registered by the authorities. The only sign of covid19 infection are the antibodies in their blood.
For example small children do not show symptoms even infected, experts say. With 300 million children in your country you may have 300 million "infected" and not registered in any statistics (an example only).

Chinese government has banned the sale of cold and fever relief drugs temporarily for the exact reason.

As for kids, their parents will not miss the symptoms even if they did.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 13, 2020, 06:49:39 pm
Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

I wonder what effect vaping has on it.

Now that we have hypothesized about potential health benefits from vaping and drinking alcohol, may I propose a review of the anti-viral effects of sex, drugs, and rock'n'roll?  ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFRdbPPCG4w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFRdbPPCG4w)

Some say it's a pandemic and some say it's the end of the world
Well if that’s true baby you might as well be my girl

I hear people talking Sayin it was made by man
I don't know what to believe but I believe you should wash your hands


Edited to add:
That rustling sound that you hear...that's Robert Johnson rolling over in his grave.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 13, 2020, 07:05:36 pm
Chinese government has banned the sale of cold and fever relief drugs temporarily for the exact reason.
As for kids, their parents will not miss the symptoms even if they did.
Their parents may get light or none symptoms, unless they are over 60..
Here they will stay home for a week or two with aspirin and hot tea, and the whole family is off any statistics..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Karel on March 13, 2020, 07:18:50 pm
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)
[attach=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: richnormand on March 13, 2020, 08:33:18 pm
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)
(Attachment Link)

Nice link and info. Thanks.

Here are two links that I thought would be useful a little while back:

The first one explains well the shape of the graph for China once the inflexion point is reached.
However the latest numbers for cases outside China are still exponential. Key is to detect cases that arrived from outside and isolate them before you start having local infections/propagation.

The second one puts the present situation in historical perspective.

Both video start slowly but end up conveying the message: you need to stop all unnecessary travel to isolate the virus and slow the spread between "cells" with public health measures such as basic hand washing social distancing!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 14, 2020, 12:22:52 am
Toilet paper shelves are still bare in Melbourne. Pasta cannot be found. Rice is gone. Flour is gone. Last week there were 1,000 people lined up to go inside Costco and when it opened there was a complete and utter debacle. Scott Morrison, the Prime Minister of Australia caused this mess with his comments that everyone should stock up. The very next day the panic buying started. Morrison is out of his depth.

There is no panic buying problem in France. And yet they are in a far worse predicament than us in Australia. There is no problem in their supermarkets. There is an irony here. Australians protest over nothing and never go on strike. The government can walk all over us. Yet we are out of control with panic buying. The French protest a lot and strikes are commonplace, often holding the public to ransom. Yes they are orderly when it comes to this virus. Even the Gilet Jaune thugs are not creating anarchy at the moment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Tomorokoshi on March 14, 2020, 05:07:07 pm
I'm not panic buying.

I'm expeditiously purchasing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 14, 2020, 05:48:58 pm
I'm not panic buying.

I'm expeditiously purchasing.

Ah, that's one of those irregular verbs isn't it:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on March 14, 2020, 08:13:53 pm
Friend just sent some photos from Spain, all shelves empty.

Here while we have pretty strong measures in place (no gatherings >50 people, schools, cinemas etc closed etc) at the shop it's a day like any other.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 08:29:18 pm
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,

So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.

Sorry, but the meme that "the virus will reduce by itself in time" is just bullshit, people are just using it to justify not doing anything. The only reduction effects will be herd immunity, when sufficient people have been infected.

Doing nothing is the most stupid thing to do (that is just the strategy chosen by mr Bor-ass-hole Johnson).
Here in Italy we are following WHO recommendations, Spain is doing the same.
During the last week I got out just once with an FFP3 mask and gloves to buy food.
I even started to wear a mask (unfortunately I have just one left from the stock I bought one year ago) and gloves a few days before the government enforced the quarantine.
We'll have to wait a couple of weeks to see any result. I just hope we'll not have to face any new cases coming from UK, US or other "smart" countries.

In any case there are good chances that the virus will get both less lethal and that hot and wet weather will degrade the protein shell more quickly. That's a matter of fact, not political propaganda.
-1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.
-2) a few tests on COVID-19 survival in free air and on surfaces have already been done
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 08:53:02 pm
[...] by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Recent studies suggest otherwise. In fact experts over here expect the climax in infections by June/July, in high summer. Hence all effort right now concentrates on slowing down the spread to a rate that can be handled by our medical system.

The consensus seems to be that the case fatality will be quite low if we manage to not overflow the intensive care capabilities. If you look at China, the high fatality numbers are dominated by Hubei province, where especially in Wuhan the intensive care capacities were overwhelmed. In the rest of China, the case fatality rate was much lower.

In Germany right now we have over 3000 reported cases and 7 deaths (0.2%) but that's overly optimistic right now, IMHO. Let's see how the numbers develop in the coming two weeks, we know that fatality trails reported by about two weeks.

I've been misunderstood. I didn't mean to understate the danger. I think the virus will not disappear, but will get less lethal with time.
So many deaths, both in China and here in Italy come from the fact that at first the virus spread unnoticed in several hospitals.
And yes, unfortunately it is still quite dangerous. Today it killed a 47 year old man with no other pathology.

And if you do not take any severe measures, there in Germany, positive cases will grow very quickly.
Even with all the measures taken here in Italy, we'll probably have to wait 1-2 weeks before seeing a decrease in the number of new cases (we have already some small improvement in the areas where it started).
At the end we'll probably have more cases and deaths than in China.
UK instead is on the road of suicide. Unless they do not change quickly they'll get one million of deaths or even more. Herd immunity... that's bullshit... that's dr Mengele stuff, unacceptable in a modern democracy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 14, 2020, 08:55:17 pm
1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.
This theory might not be applicable to this virus. There is evidence that COVID-19 can spread asymptomatic (before the host starts showing symptoms or dies).

As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 14, 2020, 09:04:40 pm
  We went shopping here yesterday and except for hand wipes and TP we didn't have any problems getting what we wanted.  The store was busy but no worse than when all of the local university students come back from any of their breaks.  We had to stand in line for perhaps 30 seconds to get to the check out counter but that was it.

      Since the theme parks and the schools closed there are a lot of people out and about, mostly out jogging, walking their dogs, or working on projects around their houses. I just came back from going out and buying another Oxy/Acetylene torch with tanks. I'm going back to buy a MIG welder and two tanks tomorrow.  Life is good, at the moment!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 14, 2020, 09:08:32 pm
Friend just sent some photos from Spain, all shelves empty.

Here while we have pretty strong measures in place (no gatherings >50 people, schools, cinemas etc closed etc) at the shop it's a day like any other.

  We just got a message from my BIL in Barcelona, he said that yesterday that everyone was out on the streets and having a good time and everything was open but it's a different story today.  The streets are empty and almost everything is closed. They did find a couple of snack shops that are open but with no eat in. Everything is strickly take out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 14, 2020, 09:15:50 pm
That is a big question whether UK's approach is good or bad, however.
Europe does following - they try to slow down the rate of spreading, they do not attempt to stop the virus, as it is not possible, it seems.
By slowing down the rate they want to de-load their national health systems (to avoid the overloaded Italy scenario).

The experts know already the XX% of the population will certainly acquire the virus this year. The Chinese and other statistics show ~80% of cases are with none or mild symptoms. With sufficient treatment of the difficult cases, under "normally" working hospital care, they can master it without more fatalities than with flu. That is what UK and Germany (and others) are targeting, imho.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:21:52 pm
1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.
This theory might not be applicable to this virus. There is evidence that COVID-19 can spread asymptomatic (before the host starts showing symptoms or dies).

That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.

Quote
As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.

That's because in those countries, even decades ago when I spent a few years there, air conditioned is widely spread and it offers the ideal conditions for the virus survival and spread (cold and dry air).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:24:00 pm
  We went shopping here yesterday and except for hand wipes and TP we didn't have any problems getting what we wanted.  The store was busy but no worse than when all of the local university students come back from any of their breaks.  We had to stand in line for perhaps 30 seconds to get to the check out counter but that was it.

      Since the theme parks and the schools closed there are a lot of people out and about, mostly out jogging, walking their dogs, or working on projects around their houses. I just came back from going out and buying another Oxy/Acetylene torch with tanks. I'm going back to buy a MIG welder and two tanks tomorrow.  Life is good, at the moment!

here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 14, 2020, 09:49:57 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 14, 2020, 09:53:28 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.
Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 10:01:45 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

Evolution doesn't work that way: even a bit better is enough.

And usually is not a keyword, it is just like science works, it is all a matter of probability and self-correction in a feedback loop, there is nobody suggesting any truth from some mountain-top or whispering in the ear of some self proclaimed prophet.

In any case apart from the viruses biology (some of them is even useful against antibiotic resistant bacteria) I'm in no way promoting laissez-faire.
We are dealing with the life of real people and the most sensible thing is just to follow WHO guidelines (like China, Italy, Spain), because:

-1) even if you are young and healthy and so there are little chances you'll die of covid-19, little is not zero
-2) even if you are young and healthy you could transmit the disease to other people who could die
-3) herd immunity with 60% of positive cases (the proclaimed goal of the British government) is pure bullshit and will make people die by the hundredth of thousand in UK alone (if I'm not wrong, deaths there just doubled in a single day... so according to that trend in a couple of weeks they might get there).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 14, 2020, 10:04:12 pm
That's because in those countries, even decades ago when I spent a few years there, air conditioned is widely spread and it offers the ideal conditions for the virus survival and spread (cold and dry air).
I lived in Singapore for decade. Air conditioning means 24-26C ambient temperature and 60-80% humidity in that country. It is not that you can get dry air. Still, most Singaporeans do not use air conditioning at their HDB flats, and large number of local businesses don’t use air conditioning either. In less prosperous neighboring countries that I listed, the A/C prevalence is much lower than in the rich city-state.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 14, 2020, 10:10:03 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

evolution doesn't work that way, even a bit better is enough

I've no idea why you are doing so much hand waving over this, you agree with the premise that doing nothing is stupid. We have to act now, not take chances.
 
There is still ZERO proof for your assertion. Please just give up with the guesswork. Admit you have no proof. We will only find out with hindsight.


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 10:41:05 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

evolution doesn't work that way, even a bit better is enough

I've no idea why you are doing so much hand waving over this, you agree with the premise that doing nothing is stupid. We have to act now, not take chances.
 
There is still ZERO proof for your assertion. Please just give up with the guesswork. Admit you have no proof. We will only find out with hindsight.

I was just dealing with the biology of viruses and if you ever mind to read any scientific paper you can find confirmation for what I wrote (even regarding the effect of A/C - I might even find the link of that study...).

Dealing with the current disease is a different matter and I fully support WHO guidelines (I added more details to my previous message).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 11:01:55 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.
Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).

yes the positive numbers we see today are those who got infected (on average) 5,1 days ago and besides them there are those who didn't show any symptoms, but fatality ratio will be much higher than flue because unlike flue we have no immunity against COVID-19.

Given the same conditions, e.g. on Andaman Islands people, who have never been exposed either to flue or COVID-19 viruses, flue might be more lethal (or might not), but for the vast majority of people in the world it is the other way.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 14, 2020, 11:07:12 pm
What's the EEVblog member body count so far?   :popcorn:

fwiw 240 litre wheelie bin liners purposed as body bags are cheap and should get the job done when doubled or tripled up for extra strength



"Suitable for large 240L wheelie bins 1470mm x 1130mm

Easy tear off bags

Multi-purpose, ideal during apocalyptic events, be they real, hyped, or just to be prepared either way, or both ways

Rubbish, storage, garden, decomposition

These tough Wheelie Bin Liners will help to keep the smells out of your rubbish bin, with a 240L capacity

And whilst we don't officially endorse their use as body bags for humans/animals or pets, we hope our customers use and dispose responsibly,
and not dump any sealed contents illegally in road side ditches, waterways, or nature strips on hard waste collection days.

If you find this product useful, please recommend it to surviving family and friends,

and don't forget to Like us on Facebook."





i.e. guys FYI > better score a few packs before the loo paper/pasta selfish idiot hoarders get apocalyptic again
doing the ninja thing with their credit cards..
  :scared: :scared: :scared:


 :horse: :horse: :horse:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 14, 2020, 11:07:54 pm
Given the same conditions, e.g. on Andaman Islands people, who have never been exposed either to flue or COVID-19 viruses, flue might be more lethal (or might not), but for the vast majority of people in the world it is the other way.
Good example. And that is exactly what we want to know - the FR for flu vs. covid19 under your assumption above.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 14, 2020, 11:35:23 pm


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 14, 2020, 11:59:03 pm
The experts know already the XX% of the population will certainly acquire the virus this year. The Chinese and other statistics show ~80% of cases are with none or mild symptoms. With sufficient treatment of the difficult cases, under "normally" working hospital care, they can master it without more fatalities than with flu. That is what UK and Germany (and others) are targeting, imho.

Quote
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).

In one cemetery of the  Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.

You will sing another tune in two weeks time.

FYI: in the region of Veneto they made 20 thoudand tests. Only a small percentage turned out positive.
Where are all the asymptomatic carriers your 'hunch' requires?

EDIT: they are reaching ICU saturation in these very days. So, no, they were not left to die outside an ICU.
And, unless you expect covid-19 to enable time travel, there is a bit of a problem in assuming that most of the population got it and had the time to move from incubation to getting rid of the virus without having any critical case.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 15, 2020, 12:43:44 am
In one cemetery of the  Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.


That still doesn't really tell us anything conclusive. Was that region a hotspot for infections? Is it an area where a lot of people who are older or in poor health go to retire? 90 people in two weeks sounds like a lot but there must be many thousands of people who die every day. We don't know how many of those people died of Covid-19, and of those who did, how many of them were on the brink and would have died naturally within the next few months either way. I think we'll need to wait a few months to see what happens, either way I think it's a given we should take steps to not spread it, but if this panic continues nobody is going to care about the virus anymore because we'll all be looking for any job we can get just to put food on the table. To prevent a few thousand people dying of illness we could have 10 or more times that dying because they're homeless, can't afford food or medicine.

And for all the fuss and panic, does anyone here personally know anyone who died?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 15, 2020, 12:54:44 am
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). That is what kills people. And unlike the flu, which kills through allowing secondary bacterial infections to set in (which can be treated with antibiotics), the coronavirus overwhelms the lungs directly. Therefore the only way to reduce death is have respirators around and lots of them. It is also more contagious and the numbers also bear out that mortality is higher. Estimates in the 2-3% versus 0.1% for flu.

There is no reason to panic but because early and drastic intervention is needed to stop the rate of transmission and reduce new case count, that is the only way to keep our hospitals from getting over-saturated in cases which ultimately will be unable to treat because of lack of ventilators. All of this is to "widen and prolong" the bell curve of infection to keep under the threshold of what our health systems can care for. Nobody wants a spike (narrow tall bell curve) which will result in millions of people being sick simultaneously. We will just run out of hospital beds, machines and ventilators and many people who could otherwise be saved will die from this stupid reason.

(https://thumbor-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/ii/w820/s/thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/711x497/https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e6b3f08aa5428000759bd33/960x0.jpg?fit=scale)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 15, 2020, 01:13:50 am


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2020, 01:25:35 am
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery. I got pneumonia before when swimming in too cold water so I'm familiar with the feeling (which was much worse than it is now though).
Quote
That is what kills people.
I hope not; I'd like to stick around for a bit longer. Needless to say I'm staying at home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 15, 2020, 01:42:10 am


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 15, 2020, 02:37:26 am


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)

But Christmas only comes once a year! (Must be a heck of an orgy though if it's the whole town!)  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 15, 2020, 04:44:10 am
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 15, 2020, 05:24:33 am
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Have you ever been to Italy?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 15, 2020, 05:44:04 am
China is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. They have a LOT more human and construction resources to move around and focus than a country with 60 million people (Italy). If Australia had the same infection rate as Italy, they would likely be making hard choices on who to save as well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 15, 2020, 07:38:20 am
You need to call a clinic or h whatever. You might need medi action now!
One think is getting not get it. Another is getting worst and not seeking help.
 Go to a clinic
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 15, 2020, 07:43:42 am
It's not age discrimination.
Tow people likely to die if they don get the machine.
One would recover based on known outcomes.
The other will not or over 50% like it I not and it's older.
Which one the try to save?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 15, 2020, 07:55:07 am
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery.
In mid March in Europe you may feel similar symptoms with a) cold (because people underestimate the still low temperatures while sunny days already), b) flu - because the flu season, c) hay fever - allergy season starts - people with pollen allergies and asthma, d) others. Thus only a test will tell you more..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 15, 2020, 09:46:56 am
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Have you ever been to Italy?

Yes I have. And I have driven a car around central Rome. If you can survive that, you can survive anything.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 15, 2020, 11:10:59 am
China is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. They have a LOT more human and construction resources to move around and focus than a country with 60 million people (Italy). If Australia had the same infection rate as Italy, they would likely be making hard choices on who to save as well.

I don't think it is population and resources. It is mindset. The communist government from the top would have decided to remove all red tape (no pun intended) to get the job done. Whoever project managed the building of the hospital in China in six days deserves the Nobel Prize for project management :-+.

The problem in Australia is the plethora of rules and regulations (building regulatory authorities, state government, local government etc) would stifle any fast path to building a hospital. If the Italians have anywhere near the building regulations we have, they have no hope either.

Still, making the choice of who lives and who dies based on age, is age discrimination by definition and that is illegal here. Based on probability of death (not just on age, but many factors) - that might be their exit clause. In any case, it is likely most democratic governments will be held to account on their preparedness and handling of the pandemic after it is all over.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 11:37:14 am
I don't think it is population and resources.
I agree.

Consider Finland: the government still insists that it is impossible, that our legal system does not allow, for any kind of border controls between Finland and other EU countries, not even to restrict the spread of the pandemic.  The politicians here really, really don't want their population replacement program through humanitarian immigration to be jeopardized in any way.  They even announced they won't test patients for the coronavirus anymore, "as the numbers don't matter much anymore".

It is completely a matter of will and being in charge.  Being in charge means being responsible for something, and that's a big no-no for Finnish politicians at least: they always need to have a scapegoat at hand, in case things go pear-shaped.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 15, 2020, 12:17:58 pm

[...]
The politicians here really, really don't want their population replacement program through humanitarian immigration to be jeopardized in any way.
[...]

Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 15, 2020, 12:36:16 pm
that our legal system does not allow

Even the country which brags about being strict to law and being built around human rights, United States, has its president using his privilege to do something.
It's nothing about law. It's about resource.

Both China and US have a central government that can command resources across the country to support one or a few locations, while that single location could be bigger than an European country.
Virus spread at more or less a constant pace, regardless a bigger country or a smaller one, meaning for an European country to keep it control using the same method, they have to respond much faster than China or US.

And of course, big decisions like lock down need to be made extremely carefully, so more or less each country has the same latency.
Thus, locking down might not be possible at all for a country smaller than a certain size, unless the government is willing to take no chance and take actions before making sure there's no other ways out.

Korea and Japan are good examples how a smaller country can take care of the case. But they reacted very aggressively very quickly.
OTOH, their leaders took a risk. If it turned out not as necessary, they would have been blamed for the massive economy loss.

For many countries with less than 1000 cases, there is still a hope. But for countries with a few thousand cases (including hidden ones), I'm afraid the chance has come and gone.
As cruel as it sounds, I'm more and more convinced Boris's solution is the right one. Keep as many as possible alive, and wait for the vaccine.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 01:37:04 pm
Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?
It is not a conspiracy theory, it is just a consequence of their actions.

They believe, like the worker movement in 1918 in Finland believed, that Finland is doomed unless it merges with a larger union.  They aren't evil, or conspiring; just ignorant and wrong.  They genuinely believe that unless they replace Finns with humanitarian immigrants, something bad will happen to everyone; that it must be done for the world to be safe.  Sometimes that bad thing is genetics ("we need better genes", even though most humanitarian immigrants suffer from consanguinity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consanguinity) more than Finns), sometimes it is the aging population ("we need someone to wipe our bums when we are old", even though employment rate among the immigrants is significantly lower than average, and raw numbers indicate each humanitarian immigrants is financially a negative net loss on average for the society), sometimes it is "white man's burden" (the tar in most slave ships was produced in Finland), sometimes international obligations, sometimes something else.

Did you know that Finns are basically what remains of the hunter-gather population all over Europe, up till agriculture came along?  (See e.g. this (https://www.aaas.org/news/science-stone-age-skeletons-suggest-europes-first-farmers-came-southern-europe), a report by Swedish archaeologists, using bog corpses dating back 5000 years.)  No, neither do Finns.  We are still taught in school that we displaced Sami people, coming from a bend somewhere in the river Volga.  And that we should be ashamed for our history.  Being a proud Finn is worse than announcing oneself as a reborn Adolf Hitler.  Try waving a Finnish flag on a sunny non-national holiday, and you will be spat on.

Fifteen years ago, at Helsinki University, I took the mandatory Swedish class.  The lecturer asked the students how they identify themselves: as Helsinki'ers, as Finns, or as Europeans.  95% of the students -- everyone except me -- said they identify themselves primarily as Helsinki'er, then as an European, and laughed the idea of identifying as a Finn.  That is how deeply self-loathing is ingrained in current youth.  (Me, I'm a barrel-raised woodland creature, and as basic [in the derogatory sense] a finn as you can get.)

Everything I am saying here is easily verifiable.  I am not implying that there is someone wringing their hands together, cackling evilly, with a plan on how to replace the population in Finland with immigrants.  I am just saying that the current actions inevitably lead to that.

The most important of those actions, in the current pandemic, and pertinent to this thread, is their absolute refusal to even consider reinstating border controls.

The reason for that is that while the majority of Finns have clamored for border controls ever since 2015, and returning humanitarian immigrants to the safe EU countries they came from, our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls. 

If they now reinstated border controls, even for curbing the spread of the pandemic, they would immediately prove they have lied to Finnish citizens for years.

So, instead of doing the sane thing and protect everyone living in Finland by instating health inspection based border controls,
our beloved leaders are still claiming it would be illegal for them to do so.

The only reason to do so, is 1) to avoid being exposed as a liar, and 2) to avoid risking their long-term desire, of Finland being a haven for humanitarian immigration.

This is not a conspiracy theory, or any theory at all, because the first reason is a consequence of the second, and there are no other reasons stated by our politicians in the media (or even in private).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 15, 2020, 01:57:39 pm


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)

But Christmas only comes once a year! (Must be a heck of an orgy though if it's the whole town!)  :)

   Nah, I'm retired so now so Christmas comes most days of the year. Christmas Florida is one of those sort of hick places where they celebrate all of the time, if you know what I mean.

    FWIW my BIL lives in North Pole (Alaska)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 15, 2020, 02:16:43 pm
.. our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls.  ..
Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 15, 2020, 02:18:40 pm
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery.
In mid March in Europe you may feel similar symptoms with a) cold (because people underestimate the still low temperatures while sunny days already), b) flu - because the flu season, c) hay fever - allergy season starts - people with pollen allergies and asthma, d) others. Thus only a test will tell you more..
In general I tend to keep away from threads like this because I suffer from hysteria induced narcolepsy, but a real quick FYI:

Coarsly chop up onion, put in handkerchief, crush onion, inhale the sulfur goodness. No magic bullet (duh), but useful tool. The main component in this case being the anti-inflammatory one. Also anti-viral, but lets work under the assumption that the preventative ship has already sailed. You want to reduce or inhibit the inflamatory response induced by the viral infection making friends with your immune system.

If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.

Quote
Ninja-ing your local friend asthma patient's inhaler and huffing that also works /some/ but in general is frowned upon. Plus those are typically corticosteroids, so not the best match IMO as treatment in the early stages. AFAIK they are useful at the later stages though. Aaaanyways, trying not to get into it. Short version: inhale an onion and with a bit of luck enjoy the reduced discomfort. Cheap, easy, scalable, no substitute for proper medical care, but better than nothing in a situation where the relevant medical resources are somewhat strained. Good luck!

The normal, typical asthma inhalers are short acting beta2-adrenoceptor agonists  not corticosteriods. These 'reliever' inhalers - colour coded blue in the EU - typically contain salbutamol/albuterol but some use formoterol/eformoterol - those are the two commonest, there are others. These are only taken in immediate response to asthma symptoms and are the only asthma treating drug that is likely to offer some symptomatic relief in ARDS.  The dose delivered by a pocket inhaler is unlikely to be effective, both because of dose and delivery mechanism. People with ARDS probably are being treated with sympathomimetics like this, but by nebulisation of a solution with oxygen (producing a fine cloud of droplets that can be inhaled). Typical dose of salbutamol from a pocket inhaler 200ug, typical dose from nebulisation 2mg repeated every 15 minutes until an effective response is seen.

Sometimes atropine analogues are also given as relief medication (e.g. ipratropium bromide aka atrovent). Green colour coded asthma inhalers contain long acting beta2-adrenoceptor agonists and are given as preventative treatment on a regular basis to people with more serious cases. Brown colour coded inhalers are corticosteroids designed to damp down the immune response and prevent asthma symptoms from occurring in the first place when used on a regular basis. Use of corticosteriods would be specifically contraindicated in the presence of infection unless concomitant therapy was given for the infection. Some inhalers contain a mixture of types of medication (e.g. Symbicort, a long acting beta2 agonist (formoterol) with a corticosteroid (budesonide)) - there is no standard colour coding for combination inhalers.

Best you stick to not giving pharmaceutical/biomedical advice as you clearly don't know what you're talking about. Kindly remember that "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing".

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 15, 2020, 02:20:26 pm
Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?
It is not a conspiracy theory, it is just a consequence of their actions.

They believe, like the worker movement in 1918 in Finland believed, that Finland is doomed unless it merges with a larger union.  They aren't evil, or conspiring; just ignorant and wrong.  They genuinely believe that unless they replace Finns with humanitarian immigrants, something bad will happen to everyone; that it must be done for the world to be safe.  Sometimes that bad thing is genetics ("we need better genes", even though most humanitarian immigrants suffer from consanguinity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consanguinity) more than Finns), sometimes it is the aging population ("we need someone to wipe our bums when we are old", even though employment rate among the immigrants is significantly lower than average, and raw numbers indicate each humanitarian immigrants is financially a negative net loss on average for the society), sometimes it is "white man's burden" (the tar in most slave ships was produced in Finland), sometimes international obligations, sometimes something else.

Did you know that Finns are basically what remains of the hunter-gather population all over Europe, up till agriculture came along?  (See e.g. this (https://www.aaas.org/news/science-stone-age-skeletons-suggest-europes-first-farmers-came-southern-europe), a report by Swedish archaeologists, using bog corpses dating back 5000 years.)  No, neither do Finns.  We are still taught in school that we displaced Sami people, coming from a bend somewhere in the river Volga.  And that we should be ashamed for our history.  Being a proud Finn is worse than announcing oneself as a reborn Adolf Hitler.  Try waving a Finnish flag on a sunny non-national holiday, and you will be spat on.

Fifteen years ago, at Helsinki University, I took the mandatory Swedish class.  The lecturer asked the students how they identify themselves: as Helsinki'ers, as Finns, or as Europeans.  95% of the students -- everyone except me -- said they identify themselves primarily as Helsinki'er, then as an European, and laughed the idea of identifying as a Finn.  That is how deeply self-loathing is ingrained in current youth.  (Me, I'm a barrel-raised woodland creature, and as basic [in the derogatory sense] a finn as you can get.)

Everything I am saying here is easily verifiable.  I am not implying that there is someone wringing their hands together, cackling evilly, with a plan on how to replace the population in Finland with immigrants.  I am just saying that the current actions inevitably lead to that.

The most important of those actions, in the current pandemic, and pertinent to this thread, is their absolute refusal to even consider reinstating border controls.

The reason for that is that while the majority of Finns have clamored for border controls ever since 2015, and returning humanitarian immigrants to the safe EU countries they came from, our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls. 

If they now reinstated border controls, even for curbing the spread of the pandemic, they would immediately prove they have lied to Finnish citizens for years.

So, instead of doing the sane thing and protect everyone living in Finland by instating health inspection based border controls,
our beloved leaders are still claiming it would be illegal for them to do so.

The only reason to do so, is 1) to avoid being exposed as a liar, and 2) to avoid risking their long-term desire, of Finland being a haven for humanitarian immigration.

This is not a conspiracy theory, or any theory at all, because the first reason is a consequence of the second, and there are no other reasons stated by our politicians in the media (or even in private).

My take on it is - there is nothing wrong with being proud of your country and flying your flag.  But that must never become a reason to sh!t on other people or countries,  and you must never lose sight of the fact that you are not perfect.  (I have been to Finland, and liked it!)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 02:23:23 pm
.. our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls.  ..
Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.
I have no idea, and the media is unwilling to ask such questions.

Searching Finlex (https://www.finlex.fi/en/), I'd say they are lying, but that too would make me a conspiracy theorist, wouldn't it?

My take on it is - there is nothing wrong with being proud of your country and flying your flag.  But that must never become a reason to sh!t on other people or countries,  and you must never lose sight of the fact that you are not perfect.  (I have been to Finland, and liked it!)
I absolutely agree.

While I rail against things like Finns not recognized as indigenous (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_peoples#Europe), it is not that I want some "privilege"; I just want us to look at history honestly, and learn from it, instead of using fictitious history as a political tool.

The "non-indigenousness" of Finns has been used as a political tool for over a hundred years, and even in the face of archaeological DNA evidence, there seems no end to it.  It is at the core of the beliefs that lead to the emotional need for Finland to be part of or replaced by something bigger.  I mean, respected researchers have rejected the DNA evidence, and instead state that linguistic theories are more reliable, because those theories can be used in guilting people to follow some political ideology/agenda or other.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 15, 2020, 02:33:15 pm
Finland may close their borders anytime, as they wish. There cannot be such a law which forbids that. An EU country still may decide on its borders even it is a part of Schengen Area (26 countries incl. Finland).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 02:40:35 pm
Finland may close their borders anytime, as they wish. There cannot be such a law which forbids that. An EU country still may decide on its borders even it is a part of Schengen Area (26 countries incl. Finland).
Yes, I agree.  However, the reason why Finland hasn't instated even spot health checks, or tracked people who came from the infection hotspot, is as I explained above.  It skirts dangerously close to political discussion, but my point is, Finland is hurting in this pandemic because of really odd politics.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 15, 2020, 02:46:51 pm
Finland may close their borders anytime, as they wish. There cannot be such a law which forbids that. An EU country still may decide on its borders even it is a part of Schengen Area (26 countries incl. Finland).

The government could legally do that, but the current government seems to be preoccupied on giving public statements that sound like they are still talking from the opposition to their voters, instead of understanding they are the ones leading now. Instead of taking any action, there is a lot of talk about far-away goals. And a lot of lying that they "can't" do something when it's matter of not wanting to do it; even if it's something that's rational, and have the people's support behind.

Actually, the current government has the habit to dismiss any legal options by lying about any action being "against international agreements", of course never specifying which mystical agreement they refer to. Further, the government has the option to change laws (including withdrawing from any international agreement); that's what they technically exist for. But this isn't understood here, neither by the government itself, or the media.

The number of infections went down today here, due to the new policy of practically next to no testing. It's not necessarily a bad idea to decide not to test - but then it needs to be clearly stated that the situation is not under control, as it's unknown how many infections we have.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 02:56:14 pm
Off topic story and joke time.

The reason there is no "Finnish Supremacy" movement is that the entire idea is utterly absurd to even the most ardent fennophile.

(Even the "Soldiers of Odin" and the banned "Nordic Resistance Movement" here are nordic, inclusive of Swedes and Norwegians and Danes, not fennocentric.  The closest thing that comes to it is the Greater Finland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suur_Suomi) meme.  The actual movement is basically about cultural preservation among Finnic peoples.  The map meme is absurdist, related to Help Helper, Spurdo Spärde, and so on.)

An old joke describes the typical Finnish mentality to the teeth:

An American, a German, a Swede, and a Finn are on a safari in Africa.  They come across a big elephant, with huge tusks.
The American thinks, "If I could get that in a zoo in America, I'd be a millionaire within a year!"
The German thinks, "The sheer amount of power in that animal!  If I could tame it, I could build a bridge in a day!"
The Swede thinks, "Just think of the number of likes I'd get on instagram if I could get a selfie with her on the background!"
The Finn thinks, "I wonder what that elephant thinks of me."

If you walk around in Finland, and see a Finn looking at you with their brow furrowed, there is a 90% chance they are wondering what you think of them.  They don't speak to you first, because they are ashamed of their accent, and don't want to bother you.  The 10% chance is that they just have a resting bitch face, and weren't actually looking at you.

I'm not kidding here, by the way.  Younger folks in cities are much more social (I blame social media), but in general, the above applies.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 15, 2020, 02:57:49 pm
.. our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls.  ..
Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.

Lying and manipulation doesn't need to follow such logic. This is of course sad from the health of democracy viewpoint...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2020, 03:28:49 pm
Off topic story and joke time.

The reason there is no "Finnish Supremacy" movement is that the entire idea is utterly absurd to even the most ardent fennophile.
I have visited Finland (Helsinki) several times for work. One of the Finnish people told me that Finland is the land of lost wars. Still there is quite a bit to be proud of for the people of Finland. Just start with Nokia.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 15, 2020, 03:49:58 pm
The "non-indigenousness" of Finns has been used as a political tool for over a hundred years, and even in the face of archaeological DNA evidence, there seems no end to it.  It is at the core of the beliefs that lead to the emotional need for Finland to be part of or replaced by something bigger.  I mean, respected researchers have rejected the DNA evidence, and instead state that linguistic theories are more reliable, because those theories can be used in guilting people to follow some political ideology/agenda or other.

This is not specific to Finland, by the way. This has been used in other countries as well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 15, 2020, 04:05:24 pm
Do we have to be careful using other people's hot snot?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 04:23:07 pm
Although this is semi-off topic, I think I should point out the main reason some Finns, like me, complain about the so-called "population replacement program".  It is not so much about that happening, but it happening because the people making it happen think they are doing something completely different.  It is a derisive term.

You see, on one hand, immigration to Finland is non-trivial.  You are required to prove you can provide for yourself and your family.  A friend who had worked for years at an University as a researcher, paying their taxes and everything for years, lost their job due to organizational changes, and got a whole month to leave Finland.

On the other hand, if you declare yourself as an asylum seeker on the border, you can stay in Finland for as long as you like, and get all the benefits citizens get plus extra on top (from nonprofits and for-profit companies dealing with humanitarian immigration to Finland).  When you get the decision that you do not actually qualify as a refugee according to UN definition (like the vast majority does), you can simply refile your asylum request.  Furthermore, the judicial system has decided not to try and deport those asylum seekers convicted of violent crime.

(Part of that could be that unlike Sweden and Norway, Finland does not have repatriation agreements with the countries most of these immigrants originate from.  Part of it could be the weird Finnish type of corruption; a lot of the judges and prosecutors belong to Demla (https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demla), an originally communist and social democrat organization established in 1954 devoted to "social justice", now claiming to be "apolitical".  Anecdotal statistics of known members indicates their actions have a heavy political bias.  Of course, I do believe they themselves believe they are doing the right thing, and therefore do not consider it corruption at all.  A similar bias exists in Finnish media, who like to tout themselves as the most Free in the world, while admitting freely that they feel their task is to be the gatekeeper, to select what the Finnish populace should hear about, and what should not be talked about.)

In general, Finns view ordinary work-related immigration favourably, but the humanitarian immigration much less favourably.  According to a 2010 poll, 60% of Finns were in favour of stricter humanitarian immigration controls, and 41% were in favour of relaxing work-related immigration rules.  So, it is not like Finns view all immigrants negatively, it is the disparity between the rules, and the consequences of those disparities, that many Finns object to.

When we look at population statistics, if the current trend in humanitarian immigration continues in Finland, Finns will be a minority by somewhere between 2040 and 2100.  (Humanitarian immigration to Finland has occurred in steps in a very short interval, all from 1990 onwards, so it is difficult to extrapolate the trend from the data.)

The reason I call the humanitarian immigration efforts in Finland "a population replacement program" is because of that is what it leads to, even if/when the people behind it have different purpose in mind.  It is a "program" because none of the politicians in charge take responsibility for it, and claim that these policies are dictated by law and by international agreement; that their hands are tied.

It is completely uninteresting and unimportant to discuss which policy is preferable/good/bad/whatever, because there is no objective right or wrong in politics.  It's up to those in Finland to discuss and agree what they want to do and how, just like it should be everywhere else, in my opinion.

My intention in this thread (and in some other threads where I've brought up some aspects of this) is to highlight the machinery and methodology these politicians use to make people believe their political choices are self-evident truths bound by law and international agreement.

I probably should use some less loaded term instead of "population replacement program", but all the other ones I could think of are just as loaded on the other side -- like "humanitarian immigration", when it really is about 90% misusing the UN refugee programs to gain a financial advantage; they aren't being that humanitarian towards the actual refugees who could use that help instead.

This is related to the topic at hand in that the main tool used by some politicians in their drive wrt. immigration, is now endangering a the population in Finland, as travel restrictions are kept off the table.  The rapid growth in the number of infected proves the danger.  The fact that testing is now stopped (for all except health services personnel, and politicians of course), proves just how far they are willing to go.

Because of these reasons, I believe Sweden will be the hardest hit in Europe (fraction of population infected), followed by Finland.  (In Finland, I expect Helsinki, Turku, Tampere and Oulu to be the hardest hit, with everywhere else having much lower fraction of infected.)
This largely depends on what kind of restrictions on travel each country sets (internally), though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 04:34:31 pm

here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

so one might wish you "good There and Happy New Year"  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 04:40:34 pm
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery. I got pneumonia before when swimming in too cold water so I'm familiar with the feeling (which was much worse than it is now though).
Quote
That is what kills people.
I hope not; I'd like to stick around for a bit longer. Needless to say I'm staying at home.

here you get examination if your temperature is higher than 37.5°C
if you can't breath, feel lack of oxygen, then you should get a swab

besides that it will take time to manage and check all the data, but unless I misremember, severe cases are just 10%
most people get along with mild symptoms and some do not even realize he/she got the virus

in any case we should take care of every life rather than of the fucking markets
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 04:47:55 pm
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?

pure bullshit
there is no age discrimination but it is like war
when resources are limited a doctor might chose to devote them to people more likely to recover and that doesn't depend on age (a 101 old chines man fully recovered and suffered only quite mild symptoms) but on general health conditions

e.g. a 30 years old may be affected by a last stage cancer and other pathologies, while an 80 years old one may just have the virus
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 04:51:29 pm
Still, making the choice of who lives and who dies based on age, is age discrimination by definition

there is no case of age discrimination, just fake news
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 15, 2020, 04:56:18 pm
but it is like war

The first casualty is the truth?  Plausible, but we were already dealing with the mainstream press.  If you want the hyperbole look there, extrapolate back to reality.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 05:10:42 pm
but it is like war

The first casualty is the truth?  Plausible, but we were already dealing with the mainstream press.  If you want the hyperbole look there, extrapolate back to reality.

just fake news...
there are plenty of that even here...
people who speak about unlikely protective masks, unlikely remedies and so on
enough is enough

The sad truth is rather that Germany even stole a large quantity of protective masks bought from China and unboarded in Amburg just because they were in transit there and they have forbidden individual protection devices export.

The same thing happened to me.
I had ordered respiratory masks (3M aura FFP3 grade) for other purposes in mid February from Conrand. They were "soon available". But at the beginning of March they deleted my order because of the export ban.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 05:16:49 pm
As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.

just see this (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308):

Quote
A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well. To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees Celsius and low specific and absolute humidity). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. We have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: CatalinaWOW on March 15, 2020, 05:20:10 pm
All of this talk about what you can or can't do in various countries is not entirely correct.  A business leader I respected highly created a slogan "YAGOTTAWANNA"  which is probably easily understood by most English speakers. 

The company involved responded to an urgent need by building an office building in 30 days, from ground breaking to occupancy.   Far less than the usual 6 months to a year for similar buildings.  It involved breaking a lot of rules, ignoring inspection requirements, equal opportunity bidding, competitive bidding, minority preferances and any number of other regulations.  That 30 day interval is not the limit on how quickly it could have been done, but reflects the time frame of the requirement.  Greater need would result in greater speed, though I am not sure that here in the US we could match the Chinese result.
 (Also not sure what the specs on that Chinese hospital were.  Military field hospitals can go up in a matter of hours.)  But that building was built correctly and is still in use a quarter century later.   There were consequences, fines, post construction demonstration of code compliance and many, many instances of retaliatory go slow on subsequent building projects.  But the need was met and the costs were just what it took to get it done.

The same thing applies to the current COVID crisis.  Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action.  If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it.  If the results are middling anything could happen.  And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions.   

The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories.  In my country the problem is not just at the top.  Too much attention is being paid to gaining political points and not enough to identifying the situation and then selecting and implementing responses.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 06:21:10 pm
bullshit... or more precisely cow shit and urine... as coronavirus cure  :palm:

Hindu group touts cow urine elixir for coronavirus (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-hindu-group-touts-cow-urine.html)

 :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2020, 06:46:33 pm
The NL goes into lockdown for the next 3 weeks. This causes long lines with people who want to get some weed while they still can:
(https://storage.pubble.nl/16c0059b/content/2020/3/b2363833-5a48-4150-bc54-e1263d9ff332_thumb840.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 15, 2020, 07:00:59 pm
........
The same thing applies to the current COVID crisis.  Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action.  If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it.  If the results are middling anything could happen.  And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions.  ......

Strongly agree. I would add that NON-ACTION is a huge part of the analysis.

.....The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories.  In my country the problem is not just at the top. .....

Again, I strongly agree, but there is and has been a HUGE problem at the top and it can not be understated. The relevant SMEs referred to this as the one we were expecting. They have been routinely discounted by many who, through denial or arrogance, refused to listen.

You must know Fauci and while I do not know him personally, I have attended his talks many times over many years. So often in the last two months, he has appeared almost as an Island in a sea of chaos.

In contrast to the "Top's", denials, chronic bungling, chaotic miscommunications, walk backs of what was said only a few hours earlier, and the stark contradictions voiced  by people who actually are SME or listen to those with SME. Despite all of this, we are seeing many Governors putting operations in place and explaining exactly what they are doing and why. We are seeing the medical Institutions putting sound judgement into action. We are seeing a a coalescence of rationality. While it may never be complete, I believe it will become dominant.

..... Too much attention is being paid to gaining political points and not enough to identifying the situation and then selecting and implementing responses.....

Again, I agree, but that is the norm for pretty much everything in the age of media over exposure. In this thread, I have been critical of some of the specific missteps made "at the top". Yes, criticism suggests blame, but, in my view, it is warranted here and now. It is part of the consequences that you speak of and those consequence will be felt forward...in November.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mrflibble on March 15, 2020, 07:18:56 pm
First of all, thanks for your reaction. It did make me reread my own post and realize that I wrote either too much or not enough, depending on how you look at it. Just enough to potentially cause trouble, and not nearly enough to clearly convey things without risk of miscommunication. I mostly intended it as a "hey are you aware of xyz" and mostly expect others to do their own check & double checking. Case in point, rereading it, the tongue in cheek way in which I worded the bit about the corticosteroids was a bad plan. And the way you describe how it's probably used in relation to ARDS is indeed how I understood it as well, at the stage where they are on the ventilator. Anyways, so either I write a whole lot more to cover everything, or a whole lot less. To make it a responsible post is going to take too bloody long, working out notes, hunting down references etc. Nope, not that invested. So deleted my post because it was a bad idea.

The one thing that does puzzle me a tiny wee bit is:

If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.
This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much. I believe the phrase we're looking for here is "fatal inflammatory response". It's a common theme in entirely too many pathologies... So maybe I don't understand you correctly?  :-// To keep it within the current context, read for example this one:

https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf (https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf)

Anyways, thanks for the sanity check. :-+
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mrflibble on March 15, 2020, 07:21:03 pm
The NL goes into lockdown for the next 3 weeks. This causes long lines with people who want to get some weed while they still can:
(https://storage.pubble.nl/16c0059b/content/2020/3/b2363833-5a48-4150-bc54-e1263d9ff332_thumb840.jpg)
ROFL! Classic! ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 15, 2020, 07:41:08 pm
Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).  The beaches have been absolutely PACKED until now.  This is where a huge portion of the 10's of thousands of spring breaker college students come over From March - the end of April.  Beach is closed till April 12.  Bars have a curfew of 10pm and must limit their capacity by 50%.  (it's about time)  THIS is gonna get interesting.

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/15/watch-live-miami-beach-fort-lauderdale-officials-discuss-spring-break-crowds-and-covid-19-outbreak/ (https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/15/watch-live-miami-beach-fort-lauderdale-officials-discuss-spring-break-crowds-and-covid-19-outbreak/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 15, 2020, 07:51:24 pm
too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 15, 2020, 08:22:24 pm
The one thing that does puzzle me a tiny wee bit is:

If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.
This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much. I believe the phrase we're looking for here is "fatal inflammatory response". It's a common theme in entirely too many pathologies... So maybe I don't understand you correctly?  :-// To keep it within the current context, read for example this one:

https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf (https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf)

Anyways, thanks for the sanity check. :-+

I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there. Treatment for this is rapid dosing with immunosuppressant drugs (such as large doses of systemic corticosteroids) which is a two edged sword - yes, the immunosuppression does limit the damage being caused to the body by its own immune system, but it also damps down the bodies efforts to kill the virus responsible for the problem in the first place. By the time you get to this point you are very lucky if the treatment is successful and you survive. For the treatment to succeed it must balance on the knife edge of damping response enough to minimise harm, while still permitting enough response to still fight the disease.

To be clear, all non-specific immune responses involve inflammation as part and parcel of the immune response. Anybody who has had a cut or insect bite get red and swollen has experienced this. The inflammation is one of the indications that your immune system has gone to work. It is the result of all sorts of immune cells moving to the site of 'insult', attracted there by cytokines being released at that site (cytokine - cyto = cell, kine = mover - a class of signalling hormones). Cytokine storms are where the immune signalling has gone into overdrive and the cells recruited by one kind of cytokine themselves release other cytokines and a positive feedback loop develops and the system becomes unstable. The resident denizens will recognise this as one of the body's control loops falling out of control by operating under circumstances that the control loop's 'designer's' compensation scheme didn't account for.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 15, 2020, 08:22:56 pm
Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

Just in... breaking news, unsurprisingly the rate of STD's and alcohol poisoning has dwindled while demand for online adult  and video chat sites subscriptions have skyrocketed!  :-DD

https://www.inertiatours.com/when-is-spring-break-2020/ (https://www.inertiatours.com/when-is-spring-break-2020/)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4AdymVcxCU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4AdymVcxCU)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 15, 2020, 08:30:11 pm
too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

Yes, it's a bit too late.  ;)
That video has been posted earlier in this thread: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 15, 2020, 08:41:06 pm
too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

Yes, it's a bit too late.  ;)
That video has been posted earlier in this thread: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432)

It's also quite dated for the situation, being a month old. The same guy has a couple newer videos on the subject.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: jonovid on March 15, 2020, 09:05:33 pm
anything for a good butt wipe
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 15, 2020, 09:39:32 pm
just see this:

Quote
...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 16, 2020, 01:27:56 am
pure bullshit
there is no age discrimination but it is like war
when resources are limited a doctor might chose to devote them to people more likely to recover and that doesn't depend on age (a 101 old chines man fully recovered and suffered only quite mild symptoms) but on general health conditions

e.g. a 30 years old may be affected by a last stage cancer and other pathologies, while an 80 years old one may just have the virus

It's called triage and it is done any time you have more need for medical care than you have care to dispense. It's not a rare situation, difficult choices must be made, and logically it may make sense to help a younger person who potentially has decades more to live and a better chance of making a full recovery than to spend those same resources on an older person who might live a few more years at best and have less chance of recovering given the same treatment. In a world of finite resources there will always be situations like this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 16, 2020, 01:54:18 am
Sad but very true.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 16, 2020, 01:57:55 am
Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).

  Did they actually close the beach or just close all of the parties and other student activities?

  A friend of mine took his family to Cocoa Beach today.  It's usually almost empty but he said that it was fairly crowded today.   

    Floridians are rediscovering those natural sources of entertainment that existed here before the big commercial Theme Parks' propaganda convinced everyone that you had to spent $500 per day to have a good time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 02:15:03 am
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 16, 2020, 03:59:58 am
Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).

  Did they actually close the beach or just close all of the parties and other student activities?

  A friend of mine took his family to Cocoa Beach today.  It's usually almost empty but he said that it was fairly crowded today.   

    Floridians are rediscovering those natural sources of entertainment that existed here before the big commercial Theme Parks' propaganda convinced everyone that you had to spent $500 per day to have a good time.

Physically closed the beach.  Put up cones and have officers (some on horseback) patrolling and kicking people off the beaches.  I saw some pictures earlier but cant find them now.

Quote
“We cannot become a petri dish for a very dangerous virus,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said Sunday during a joint news conference at Miami Beach City Hall. “Spring break is over. The party is over.”

Fort Lauderdale beach — the sandy section — will be closed from Harbor Drive north to Oakland Park Boulevard. Miami Beach will close the beach from Fifth Street to 15th Street —the uber trendy section known as South Beach. Even its public parking garages will close and an 11 p.m. curfew will be strictly enforced.

Fort Lauderdale’s rules are in effect now through April 12.

Violators can risk a $500 fine or 60 days in jail.

“We clearly want to encourage voluntary compliance, but we could arrest or issue notices to appear if necessary," Fort Lauderdale City Manager Chris Lagerbloom said.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 16, 2020, 04:01:42 am
Yes, it's a bit too late.  ;)

I knew I could count on you.  :-+
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: magic on March 16, 2020, 06:29:10 am
Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action.  If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it.  If the results are middling anything could happen.  And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions.   

The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories.
That was tested and failed a few weeks ago, before first cases occured in Europe/America. We could have had all the same border lockdown but without internal chaos.

What's tested now is how our beloved leaders react under panic conditions ;)
A common reaction is "nothing can be done just accept it" which of course shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 16, 2020, 09:12:08 am
This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much.

yes
they are successfully using Tocilizumab (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tocilizumab)
BTW I see that wikipedia is up to date and even mentions usage in Italy
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 16, 2020, 09:18:54 am
just see this:

Quote
...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.

well if you do not like how science works you can always try cow urine (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2965132/#msg2965132)  ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 16, 2020, 09:23:05 am
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 11:33:10 am
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 16, 2020, 11:51:53 am
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 12:11:04 pm
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.

I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 16, 2020, 12:54:43 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 16, 2020, 01:05:48 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Let's go further:

Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks

Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0

(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 16, 2020, 01:22:08 pm
I don't think that this link has been posted before - sorry if it has.

2020.03.12 A Coordinated Boston Response to COVID19

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 16, 2020, 01:22:39 pm
Amazon and eBay are cracking down on sellers of coronavirus items at inflated prices

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51909045 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51909045)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 16, 2020, 01:34:04 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Let's go further:

Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks

Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0

(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)

But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 16, 2020, 01:39:08 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

I like the analysis.   But of the 10,000 infected people - how many of them will be out shopping as usual, rather than staying in bed?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 16, 2020, 01:44:22 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Your calculation only makes sense if the distribution is random.. You should make that more accurate by using the number of infected people in your county (or even, town).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 16, 2020, 02:04:13 pm
I find it interesting how a current statistical fact is completely miss-leading.

In the UK currently more people have died from the virus than have recovered.

Of course this is the case as there hasn't been enough time for people to recover but sadly enough time for people to die.   The data is also skewed because the UK are no longer testing for the virus, except for severe and critical cases, so registered active cases are much more severe.  The stats on severe/critical cases will also get skewed in the UK as a result.  It will look like more cases are severe and more people die.

I just hope the media don't go to town on these stats to scare people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 16, 2020, 02:13:54 pm
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascorbic_acid) "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 16, 2020, 02:38:15 pm
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

Indeed, hence this isn't the best time for the full-blown survivalist to shine; even a semi-survivalist strategy is enough to do what is necessary, namely slow down the spread so that the healthcare system can deal with it without collapsing.

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...

Exactly!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 16, 2020, 02:55:15 pm
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascorbic_acid) "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)


See Galit Aler's presentation beginning at slide 42. It is precisely what you are discussing here. There does appear to be a dysregulation of the immune response early on and in some patients. I think that, as suggested in the presentation, this is being targeted for therapy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 02:58:24 pm
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 03:03:05 pm
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

That's making the assumption that the infection circulates forever in the general population. It does not, or we'd still all be dropping like flies from the Bubonic Plague of the middle ages. Of course we are not, and we don't have active immunity to the Bubonic Plague either.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 03:19:39 pm
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascorbic_acid) "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.

First off, you'll always see some examples of cytokine storms if you look at enough patients. It's a known complication of any serious viral infection for certain patients. People's immune systems vary, and some are more prone to over-reaction than others. Ask anyone with allergies (slightly disingenuous as different mechanisms are in action, but it serves as a simple exemplar).

The vitamin C thing is interesting, and I bet Linus Pauling is smirking in his grave. One of the non-specific immune responses is to release highly reactive free radicals as a means of destroying invaders. This does that, but also causes oxidative damage to host tissue at the same time. Remember that in the case of a viral infection it is our own cells that have been commandeered by viral RNA/DNA that are the enemy. So it is inevitable that both 'good' and 'bad' hosts cells get clobbered by this kind of response. Using a systemic anti-oxidant such as vitamin C may well be an effective method of limiting the undesirable oxidative damage - we probably won't know until this is all done and dusted. As you say, vitamin C has very low toxicity and, while it may yet prove to be another folk remedy, the risk/reward ratio for using it looks pretty good.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 16, 2020, 03:49:03 pm
I don't think that this link has been posted before - sorry if it has.

2020.03.12 A Coordinated Boston Response to COVID19

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)

   Good article. Thanks for posting.  :-+
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 16, 2020, 04:03:17 pm
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...

In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed. If you are over 70, might be better to bunker up and wait for a vaccine, but avoiding all contact for maybe months could be quite hard.

Either way, this would be a good practice run for "The Big One". Work out what supplies you need, how long they keep, how often you need to cycle stock etc.

I think the big problem with prepping is that individuals will be very vulnerable. To survive, you will need to be in a group, and in a location that is defensible. So building a network of like minded people, and scouting for good sites is as essential as having a stock of spam and ammo.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 16, 2020, 04:04:52 pm
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

I think the most likely explanation is that dogs don't shed enough virus to cause infection.  That could be pretty hard to measure in the midst of a crisis.

Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 16, 2020, 04:14:23 pm
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.

I don't know why you would say that when we have so much well-documented viral zoonoses. Maybe I am just not understanding.

"Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species."

OK, take herpes B for example. There are clearly documented cases of infection to humans after exposure (scratch or bite) to macaques. Indeed, the macaque is barely symptomatic other than shedding...the human, unfortunately can develop encephalitis in a couple of days. The infected human can also infect other humans.

Same virus. same infection albeit dramatically different effects. What am I missing?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 05:27:08 pm
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.

I don't know why you would say that when we have so much well-documented viral zoonoses. Maybe I am just not understanding.

For a virus to pass from say, birds, to people it needs to be able to infect both. Sometimes this is the case, most often it is not. Sometimes it happens because a strain randomly mutates so that it would infect another species (mutation in viruses happens all the time) and encounters a new species of host at the same time. Most of the time it doesn't encounter the new species and dies out. Crossing species is the exception not the rule. Vets don't catch Parvo from dogs, vets don't get immune deficiency by catching FIV from cats.

Viral zoonoses are comparatively rare. Bacteria zoonoses are not (e.g. Psittacosis). Bacteria and viruses are worlds apart, viruses need a fully working cell that is compatible with their biochemistry to reproduce, bacteria just generally need warmth, wet and food. You can grow a bacteria on an agar plate, viruses require tissue culture in a compatible species cells. Look at all the diseases that are commonly transmitted between humans and other animals - the vast majority are bacterial or parasitic. The rare viral ones typically require very specific hosts on both sides.

Some viruses only require very evolutionarily primitive cell biology, using cell biology that is common to whole sections of the evolutionary tree. Rabies is one - it'll infect most mammals -  but it's still limited in what it can infect, you won't find a lizard with rabies.

Quote
"Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species."

OK, take herpes B for example. There are clearly documented cases of infection to humans after exposure (scratch or bite) to macaques. Indeed, the macaque is barely symptomatic other than shedding...the human, unfortunately can develop encephalitis in a couple of days. The infected human can also infect other humans.

Same virus. same infection albeit dramatically different effects. What am I missing?

A macaque is, like you and me, a primate. There's a much smaller difference between species of primate than there is between primates and dogs.

Look at it another way. The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. The part that says "how to get into a cell to reproduce" has to have a mechanism for doing so, usually this is by 'recognising' a surface protein on the cell and using that to leverage the cell's active transport mechanisms to get into the interior of the cell. If that protein isn't there, or it's a slightly different shape because it's the dog variant rather than the human variant, then the virion never gets to deliver its genetic payload to the cell, so no infection happens.

Lets go back to the computer analogy. If part of that 30,000 instructions is "how to infect a computer" and the virus was targetting Windows then it would fail to infect MacOS because MacOS doesn't expose the same interfaces on the outside that Windows does. They're both x86 operating systems so they have similar mechanisms for, say, networking but the exact details of the networking interfaces of Windows that might allow a virus to get its payload through are different on MacOS and so the virus fails to 'infect' its host.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 16, 2020, 05:39:40 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 05:46:38 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.

From that article:
Quote
University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.

In vitro and in vivo are two very different things. It could easily fall at the first hurdle. Just because the drugs work in a test tube is no guarantee that they will have any effect in a real living host. The good news is that they are both active, approved drugs with known safety profiles - it would seem there is no significant barrier to going ahead with a clinical trial with extreme speed. Who knows, they may get lucky.

Oh, and the named one of the two drugs, chloroquine, is as cheap as chips (unless you're in the US where all drugs cost many more times more than they do in the rest of the world).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 16, 2020, 05:47:34 pm
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

I think the most likely explanation is that dogs don't shed enough virus to cause infection.  That could be pretty hard to measure in the midst of a crisis.

Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.

At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 05:53:24 pm
At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.

Or to put it in terms that most people will be familiar with it's a "DNA fingerprint" (really an RNA fingerprint). It'll tell you the virus is there, but not in what quantity. The PCR bit is Polymerase Chain Reaction and refers to amplifying the RNA found into a detectable quantity by making very many copies of it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 16, 2020, 06:01:20 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.


   Read about the James Cai case here https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html (https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html)and also look at the follow up.  James was treated with the same two drugs and he credits them and the Chinese researchers who recommended them with saving his life. For the ones of you that continue to think that this virus is no worse than the annual flu virus, James was a young healthy man with no medical conditions but Corona virus almost killed him.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 16, 2020, 06:18:29 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.


   Read about the James Cai case here https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html (https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html)and also look at the follow up.  James was treated with the same two drugs and he credits them and the Chinese researchers who recommended them with saving his life. For the ones of you that continue to think that this virus is no worse than the annual flu virus, James was a young healthy man with no medical conditions but Corona virus almost killed him.

I've seen stories from other doctors who were telling people to be no more afraid of it than the flu and then they started dealing with it and changed their minds. They didn't even have to get it themselves.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.

From that article:
Quote
University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.

In vitro and in vivo are two very different things. It could easily fall at the first hurdle. Just because the drugs work in a test tube is no guarantee that they will have any effect in a real living host. The good news is that they are both active, approved drugs with known safety profiles - it would seem there is no significant barrier to going ahead with a clinical trial with extreme speed. Who knows, they may get lucky.

Oh, and the named one of the two drugs, chloroquine, is as cheap as chips (unless you're in the US where all drugs cost many more times more than they do in the rest of the world).

Yea, that's why they want to start a trial. It'd be better to have a vaccine but this could be a good intermediate step. The reason I don't think it'll be cheap has nothing to do with current costs but costs if they need to ramp up production. I haven't researched the drugs uses outside of HIV(other than one being an anti viral) but if they're not used widely otherwise you'd be supply constrained so the price would go up with those who have the money likely being able to get it first. Especially with this being all over the world.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 16, 2020, 06:49:48 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 16, 2020, 06:54:06 pm
In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed.
This is not your normal queue for toilet paper, where whoever first reaches the aisle is rewarded with truckload of TP, while the others are rewarded with empty shelves.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 16, 2020, 06:57:38 pm
In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed.

Actuall, this is a good strategy to overwhelm medical resources and further reduce the probability of a favourable outcome for the elders.
Still, the best strategy if your philosophy is "screw everybody else, I am the only one who counts".

Yes, and this is a good textbook example of a case where a state-held system for controlled violence, administred by the police and military, is used for an important purpose, to force such people to take others into consideration.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 16, 2020, 07:05:57 pm
..The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. ..
The virus is a chunk of RNA encapsulated into "the debris" of the cell's outer membrane (the cell which burst because of the mass-produced RNA). Thus the "how to get into the cell" is not coded in the RNA itself, but specified rather by its encapsulation - and while it is made of the cell's outer membrane the barrier to enter into an another identical or "similar" cell is almost nil, imho.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 16, 2020, 07:13:25 pm
just see this:

Quote
...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.

well if you do not like how science works you can always try cow urine (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2965132/#msg2965132)  ;D
It seems you have a lot of aspiration for science. Keep on trying, don’t give up, and take my advice. Today I am giving it away for free. When googling for something that can prove your theory, don’t search for words like “urine”. Try something different. ”Chi-squared test”, for example.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 08:01:34 pm
..The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. ..
The virus is a chunk of RNA encapsulated into "the debris" of the cell's outer membrane (the cell which burst because of the mass-produced RNA). Thus the "how to get into the cell" is not coded in the RNA itself, but specified rather by its encapsulation - and while it is made of the cell's outer membrane the barrier to enter into an another identical or "similar" cell is almost nil, imho.

I don't mean to be harsh but 'IMHO' is not a substitute for actually having studied this. A virus' protein coat is encoded in its genome, it doesn't just grab scraps of a cell's (phospholipid) membrane on the way out, it gets its host cell's ribosomes to manufacture its coat proteins. Take a look at a T4 bacteriophage and tell me how it constructs the complex protein coat (including a 'hypodermic') from a bacteria's shattered cellulose/phospholipid membrane. Getting into or out of a cell past the membranes is not a trivial task biochemically speaking, that's why cells have whole systems of proteins dedicated to active transport, ion channels in cell membranes and so on, and active mechanisms to resist 'foreign' biochemicals simply wandering into the cell.

Case in point, our friend SARS-covid-2:

Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2#Structural_biology
Structural biology

Each SARS-CoV-2 virion is approximately 50–200 nanometres in diameter.[50] Like other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 has four structural proteins, known as the S (spike), E (envelope), M (membrane), and N (nucleocapsid) proteins; the N protein holds the RNA genome, and the S, E, and M proteins together create the viral envelope.[51] The spike protein is responsible for allowing the virus to attach to the membrane of a host cell.[51]

Note in particular that very last bit about the virus' spike proteins. The structural similarity of the spike protein to antibodies is no accident, it performs a similar task to 'recognise' and attach to surface expressed proteins on a target cell. Why would it code for a membrane protein if it was just going to snatch a cell's phospholipid membrane to do the job?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 16, 2020, 08:18:03 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
Just for clarity: it wasn't the same PM as in 1973. Still it is impressive. Never thought I'd see the day but yet here it is.

His main message  was that most people will get infected at some point (which is what Merkel; the PM of Germany also stated a couple of weeks ago). The efforts are aimed to control the outbreak so health care can keep up. Makes sense to me because that seems the only way to me to keep both the economy going and reduce loss of life.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 16, 2020, 09:14:59 pm
Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.

At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.

So how do they do an "N-gene-specific quantitative RT-PCR assay", as described in this article:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext)

Is it a lot more difficult than the pass/fail test you describe?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 16, 2020, 09:27:37 pm
Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.

At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.

So how do they do an "N-gene-specific quantitative RT-PCR assay", as described in this article:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext)

Is it a lot more difficult than the pass/fail test you describe?

Have a look at "Real-Time RT-PCR Panel for Detection 2019-Novel Coronavirus - Instructions for use":

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/rt-pcr-panel-for-detection-instructions.pdf (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/rt-pcr-panel-for-detection-instructions.pdf)

If anybody wants to see the proteins that are encoded, have a look at a sequenced virus:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 16, 2020, 09:41:23 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
What happened in 1973?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 16, 2020, 09:56:53 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
What happened in 1973?
That was the oil crisis.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 16, 2020, 10:03:46 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
What happened in 1973?

Probably the oil embargo from the Arab producers aimed at nations supporting Israel in the Yom Kipper war. Global oil prices quadrupled as a result, and many were impacted by the lack of supply, including the US (I was a teen driver at the time).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 02:55:59 am
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
Just for clarity: it wasn't the same PM as in 1973. Still it is impressive. Never thought I'd see the day but yet here it is.

His main message  was that most people will get infected at some point (which is what Merkel; the PM of Germany also stated a couple of weeks ago). The efforts are aimed to control the outbreak so health care can keep up. Makes sense to me because that seems the only way to me to keep both the economy going and reduce loss of life.

   But you've missed an important point: at this point it little matters what happens to the economy.  The entire planet is faced with the possibility of MASSIVE numbers of deaths due to overloaded medical systems.  Right now, they're making hard decisions about the best way to keep as many people alive as possible. Yes, short of some sort of vaccine being invented EVERYONE is going to get it. And even in the best medical conditions, an average of 3.4% of the infected people are dying. That's 10 million people in the US alone and about 230 million world wide. However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it.  Go look at Italy right now, they CAN'T deal with the current rate of increase, Iran is just as bad, South Korea was but now seems to be getting some control on it. Spain is losing control, so is France and Germany and the US is close behind. The US could be much worse since, thanks to the incompetence of the CDC, we still don't actually know how many people are already infected. Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours!

  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 17, 2020, 03:01:22 am
CDC did it's job with projections, but the administration refused to pay heed to their warnings for a couple months and kept them muzzled until the damage was done.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 17, 2020, 04:21:26 am
I'm in the ER and at least it isn't busy. Stricter rules than normal though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 04:41:41 am
Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours!
What did you expect if Canadian idiot health officials were saying ,as the toll was rising in China, if you see a Chinese person come say you support them and shake their hand.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 17, 2020, 07:37:37 am
However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it. 

I've been chewing on this point for some time.

If we want to limit infections to the point where hospitals can deal with it (say 10k active cases at any time, in Italy), and cases take 20 day to resolve, that is a rate of about 500 serious cases per day, and with about 20% of cases needing hospitalization, that is 2,500 new cases per day of any severity.

Italy has 60,000,000 people, so to not swamp the health system it will take 60,000,000/2,500 = 24,000 days (or 65 years!) if everybody was to get it without swamping the health system.

Even if Italy was to grow the ability to have 100k cases in hospital, that is still 65 years.

Assume Italy can have 100k hospital beds, and only 10% of the population get infected. that's still 1200 days of full hospitals with a perfectly managed rate of transmission.

They way I see it, it will either get stamped out through infection control, or the hospital system will get swamped. There isn't a middle ground. Anybody who thinks "flattening the curve" is a workable long term plan probably hasn't done the math.

(any correction to assumptions gladly accepted!)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 09:09:52 am
   But you've missed an important point: at this point it little matters what happens to the economy.  The entire planet is faced with the possibility of MASSIVE numbers of deaths due to overloaded medical systems.  Right now, they're making hard decisions about the best way to keep as many people alive as possible. Yes, short of some sort of vaccine being invented EVERYONE is going to get it. And even in the best medical conditions, an average of 3.4% of the infected people are dying. That's 10 million people in the US alone and about 230 million world wide. However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it.  Go look at Italy right now, they CAN'T deal with the current rate of increase, Iran is just as bad, South Korea was but now seems to be getting some control on it. Spain is losing control, so is France and Ger

In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 09:14:08 am
That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.
[/quote]

SARS and COVID-19 are also transmitted via feces...
I've non idea why, but AFAIK nobody observed pet-to-human transmission
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 09:18:00 am
Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours!
What did you expect if Canadian idiot health officials were saying ,as the toll was rising in China, if you see a Chinese person come say you support them and shake their hand.

probably because people are so stupid to think that every Chinese is a virus carrier while there are a lot of "Aryans" who travel to China and other countries and spread the virus everywhere

discriminating Chinese people besides being unfair and immoral is counter-productive regarding the fight against virus spread
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 17, 2020, 10:12:00 am
Pensioners still cannot get basics at their supermarket. I just got back from our local supermarket. No toilet paper, no meat, no eggs, no pasta, no tissues, not nothing except junk food. The local chemist has run out of basic meds too. The supermarkets are out of control as is our government. Scott Morrison, our Prime Minister, triggered the panic by telling people to stock up.

The state government should impose limits and use the police to fine the hoarders. Better still, use batons on them. Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 10:24:34 am
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.

I'd expect two weeks or thereabouts for the effect to become visible. Basically, incubation period.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: magic on March 17, 2020, 10:57:00 am
Meanwhile in Poland...

Even isopropanol sells for $10 per liter now :-DD

Thankfully I have some stock for personal use.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 11:30:44 am
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 11:57:37 am
Quote
All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.

And even that varies wildly. In Germany, we have quite a number of confirmed infections (more than 7000, if you believe JHU, a little over 6000 reported to RKI) but a very low CFR (0.2%).

IMHO, this means two things:
- Germany is still at the very beginning of the wave and not many critical cases had the time to come to closure.
- We have a good test coverage.

Alternative:
- we're incredibly sloppy in our testing and the CFR is much higher in reality.

Germans, sloppy?  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 12:10:18 pm
Tune in tonight for some serious CAR CRASH TV!

Quote
Coronavirus: German Big Brother cast to be told about pandemic live on TV

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-51923334 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-51923334)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 17, 2020, 12:18:23 pm
..
IMHO, this means two things:
- Germany is still at the very beginning of the wave and not many critical cases had the time to come to closure.
- We have a good test coverage...
In Markus Lanz talk show (11.3.) your expert said Germany CFR is low because of very early testing start and good testing coverage..

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BU508A on March 17, 2020, 12:27:57 pm
(https://i.imgur.com/NDZJ9F5.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 12:30:23 pm
Hello and greetings from germany. I want to share  one thing which i think is important and is not understood in europe.

Here the Media and politics say: Don't wear the Mask, the mask doesn't protect you. only wear the mask if you are infected.

Yes, right, the mask doesn't protect you if you are not infected. But, the mask, even cheap and selfbuilt masks, protect others if you are infected and wear it.

But corona is transmitted absolutely mostly by peaple who do NOT feel sick and don't think they are infected. So they don't wear the mask.

But wehen everybody has to wear the mask, then automatically all those infected peaple who cannot know thar they are infected, would also wear the mask.

I think this is THE main difference between the west and asian countries like china and southkorea.

So wear the mask, even if you feel good, because you cannot know if you are transmitting the virus or not. You don't wear the mask to protect you, but to protect everyone else in case you are infected. So everyone should wear the mask.

And change the mask regularly. When you wake up, build yourself 5 or so Masks from kitchen roll paper and use the masks during the day. use them when you are with other people. and flush used masks in the toilette. (just the paper, not the string).

Just do it! Thank you! Sarry for my bad english. Stay well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 12:32:49 pm
Leave the masks for those people that need them most.  They are in seriously finite supply.

Best advice to sum what you should do up is this:

If you want to slow the spread of the virus you have to act as if you already have it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 12:43:07 pm
Quote
Leave the masks for those people that need them most.  They are in seriously finite supply.

Yes, build your own masks. The mask is not to protect you, so you don't need good expensive masks. Selfbuilt masks will protect others relatively good if you are infected and wear them.

Quote
If you want to slow the spread of the virus you have to act as if you already have it.

Exactly! So ... wear the mask as everyone sould do who is infected. Wear selfbuilt masks like the people in china and southkorea are doing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 17, 2020, 12:47:34 pm
Wearing masks (even DIY) is absolutely essential !!!
Who is saying it is not is an idiot !!!

https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/

PS: an absolutely primitive DIY mask has an effectiveness (to stop droplets) of about 25%.
That is a pretty good number when talking statistics of random processes..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:00:39 pm
Here in Europe and in the US they are saying you shouldn't wear the mask because they will not PROTECT YOU.

It is NOT about protecting YOU. it is for protecting ALL OTHERS if you were infected.

Yes, there is a shortage. so build your own masks.

Please: Share the information, this thought.

Sidenote, why do you have a very good mask for protecting YOUSELF, but a selfbuild will be good enought to protect others from you?

If you want to protect yourself, you want the mask to filter out very tiny droplets with the virus. and you breath normal. Norman breathing is slow. so if the mask is not perfectly tight at the edges, the air gets sucked around the filter and with the air the droplets.

But if you are ill and cough and sneeze, you droplets get shot out very fast. not around your cheap selfbuilt mask, even if there is an airgap at the sides. the droplets get shot in the paperfilter from kitchenroll and get not in the air.

So build you masks. they are good to protect others from you. Behave as if you were infected even if you feel good.

Sidenote2:
I think there might be a mental difference between people in europe and asia. Here the society is very selfish. I think people don't want to wear the mask if it is not fro there own protection. In asia the society seems to me as a german very less egoistic but the whole people is more important. so the asien men/women is more likely to wear the mask because of the greater good to protect society.
This is just my feeling from germany where people still shake hands with the words "i don't feel ill, how likely can it be that I am infected?" But corona is exactly spread by this group of people. People who feel goot but are infected because they
a) are in the incubation phase or
b) have a very mild corona.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 01:09:19 pm
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on March 17, 2020, 01:12:12 pm
Wearing masks (even DIY) is absolutely essential !!!
Who is saying it is not is an idiot !!!

https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/

It makes me chuckle when everyone wears masks. Like a surgeon operating on someone, the mask stops them breathing ON to the patient/surgical-opening, not the other way around. Unless it is a 'specialized' mask, that virtually hermetically seals around the wearers nose/mouth, they are breathing in general 'air' all around the masks edges!!.... but I guess it's better than nothing...

MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 17, 2020, 01:12:24 pm
The attitude changes from day to day (an EU capitol city here).
A week back people where watching others with masks with a suspicion ("OMG, are they infected??")
I've just returned from shopping (groceries full of people and goods, incl TP) and I've seen maybe 2 people not wearing masks. Interestingly many were wearing gloves as well.
PS: you are required to wear a mask when entering a bus, train, tram here, btw.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:16:08 pm
Quote
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

It seems you don't understand.

Corona has a very long incubation time and even after this incubation time many people with corona don't feel ill. So there are many people who don't knot that they are transmitting the virus because they CAN'T know.

The ill corona pations are not transmitting because they stay at home or are in hospital. It is EXACTLY the people who feel fine but are infected who are transmitting the virus.

The sould wear masks of course and to archive that, EVERYONE has to wear a mask. ever if it is selfbuilt. Because if everyone wears the mask, then automatically everyone who is feeling goot but is actually infected would also wear the mask.

so wear the mask, even if you feel good because you cannot know that you are not infected. behave as if you were infected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:18:58 pm
Quote
Like a surgeon operating on someone, the mask stops them breathing ON to the patient/surgical-opening, not the other way around.

Exactly this is why everyone should wear the mask. you should not wear the mask for your own protection, but because you might be infected. with corona you cannot know that you are currently not infected and transmitting, even if you feel good. so wear the mask to protect others from you.

Quote
PS: you are required to wear a mask when entering a bus, train, tram here, btw.

Not here in southern germany. and not in the US.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 01:23:49 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 01:25:30 pm
Okay, -gb-, let me just take the advice of someone on the internet and ignore all the official information.  Yea.  :palm:

I'll just go and join a few Facebook groups for extra advice and see if "Karen on facebook" knows better too.

As I said, the only way to slow it is to act as if you already have it.  Unless being around other people is ABSOLUTELY essential it should be avoided.  If you are around other people, wash your hands often.  If you want to make a home made mask, knock yourself out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 01:26:37 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.

They also, apparently, have the oldest population in Europe.  The triaging of patients was no managed well, the hospitals over flowed and people who needed care could not get it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 01:37:56 pm
Quote
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

It seems you don't understand.

Corona has a very long incubation time and even after this incubation time many people with corona don't feel ill. So there are many people who don't knot that they are transmitting the virus because they CAN'T know.

The ill corona pations are not transmitting because they stay at home or are in hospital. It is EXACTLY the people who feel fine but are infected who are transmitting the virus.

The sould wear masks of course and to archive that, EVERYONE has to wear a mask. ever if it is selfbuilt. Because if everyone wears the mask, then automatically everyone who is feeling goot but is actually infected would also wear the mask.
It is not going to help. The virus is already lingering in too many people. Even if the virus is blocked right now it will pop-up later on. The Corona virus is going to become seasonal flu. The only way out is to slow down the spread to a pace where the health services can keep up and develop a vaccine for old and weak people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 01:40:39 pm
Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.

Yes yes I got one !

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:42:08 pm
Quote
Okay, -gb-, let me just take the advice of someone on the internet and ignore all the official information.

No, you shouldn't. you should start thinking. The official advice is to not wear the mask becaus it will not protect you. that is absolutely right. but the official advice is not considering, that there are other reasons to wear the mask. exactly that others will be protectet if you are infected and wear the mask.

that is also what officials say, you shoulkd wear the mask if you are infected. but with corona, infected persons have for about a week not method ob knowing that they are infected. they feel fine. but they are infected and should wear the mask as officials say. so ... how do we achieve that hey who caanot know they are infected all wear masks? Right, we all wear masks becaus then they will be includes ans also will wear the mask.
Think! It is not magic. but this thought is completely missing in the media.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:49:08 pm
Quote
It is not going to help. The virus is already lingering in too many people. Even if the virus is blocked right now it will pop-up later on.

very right. but now it should be contained that the hospitals are not beeing overrun. loot at italy. they had between 2% and 3% dead persons among all infected. after arond 2nd march, the hospitals were overrun and now the have 7.7% dead of all infected. http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto (http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto)
2158 dead among 27980 totally infected is 7.71%.

This too much, we cannot risk that. we should at least try to contain corona, keep the number of infected at any time low ... till there ia a medicine.

China had the total quarantine on many citys. they now have loosened up thes method, because their health system is no longer overrun. but they still habe some new infected every day. to prevent the epidemic from starting again they have to continue with some actions till there is a medicine. so what we will see from china and southkorea is, that even as the have stopped the initial outbreak, they will continue to wear all masks so long till there is a medcine. otherwise the epidemic will start again.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 17, 2020, 01:51:23 pm
Italy and quarantine (quaranta giorni, meaning "forty days") - a pretty long history, Italy has been a leading country in coping with diseases usually coming form Asia and Far East via maritime transport:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 01:53:47 pm
Quote
Okay, -gb-, let me just take the advice of someone on the internet and ignore all the official information.

No, you shouldn't. you should start thinking. The official advice is to not wear the mask becaus it will not protect you. that is absolutely right. but the official advice is not considering, that there are other reasons to wear the mask. exactly that others will be protectet if you are infected and wear the mask.

Clearly you "Did your research!" Karen.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on March 17, 2020, 01:57:13 pm
Ok. One last point though. Our Prime Minister here in Australia has admitted, in being honest, that virtually nothing is going to stop the spread of the virus. The IMPORTANT point he made, is that we are/need to control it on a "Flatter Curve", than otherwise, so that it remains manageable within the hospital/medical system, regarding beds/resources etc. for the duration.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zucca on March 17, 2020, 01:59:21 pm
Italy was hitten so hard because we realized too late what was going on. I have also to say that we are very transpaternt with the numbers and we have nothing to hide.

Just please stay home.

This is the only defence we have.

PS: The virus is getting close to my family in Italy right now, it's not funny. Once it knocks on your door, it's different than reading the news.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 02:15:36 pm
Quote
The IMPORTANT point he made, is that we are/need to control it on a "Flatter Curve", than otherwise, so that it remains manageable within the hospital/medical system, regarding beds/resources etc. for the duration.

Yes, that is the Western methon. the epidemic will stop on ITS OWN if 2/3 of the people were infected. that is true. but:

- there are other methods of stopping it, look at china/southkorea
- calculate the number of the dead even if the hospitals were not overrun and a very optimistic low 1% of all infected will die.
- calculate the timeframe.

here in germany we are about 80 million. 2/3 is around 50 million. about 5% (very optimistic) of the infected will need intensiv care at a hospital. that are 2.5 Million. so even if we succeed and flatten the curve to fully two (2) years. than that means, that there will be 2.5 Million/730 Days = about 3 000 NEW cases for intensive care EVERY DAY - for two years. that simply is too much. yes, you could flatten the curve, but not over 2 years but over 5 or 10 years. during that time, some measures must be done, that the number of infected does not rise.

So i think the only practical method is doing it als china has done. initially lower the number of infected with harsh methods. and then prevent the epidemic from starting again by prolonging some methods like wearing masks and hygiene/behavioral methods. this methods must remain in place till there is a vaccination AND the riskgroups are vaccinated. or till there is a medcine which can cure infected persons.

With this you don't have to infect 2/3 of the people. In Chine, 80 000 infected are less than 0.1% of all chinese. and they have stopped it. yes, they have new cases, but since the continue to have infection reducing methods like wearing masks, there healthsystem will not be overrun again. we should leran from them an do the same.

caveat:
The economics will break down very hard if we go the china way. but only fopr around 1 or two months. as we see, factorys in china are opening again. if we accept 2/3 of our people to infect, we accept many more dead, but economic will not break down so hard.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 02:16:23 pm
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 02:18:06 pm
PS: The virus is getting close to my family in Italy right now, it's not funny. Once he knocks on your door, it's different than reading the news.
My estimation is that by this time next year we all know someone personally who has died from the Corona virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 02:28:51 pm
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?

Maybe, but the more hard reasons are:

- the medical system is overrun.
at the begin of the epidemic, the mortality in italy was not higher than it is currently in france or spain. between 2% and 3%. then since 2nd march it is rising because the medical system is overrun.
Here are the numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy)
Today the mortality is at 7.7% http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto (http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto)

- in italy there live more old people than in china. look at these two images i attatched.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 02:38:09 pm
Before the "random advice with no science or sense mob" take over entirely.

This disease spreads from aerosolised droplets of mucus, saliva and the like carrying shed virus, or hand to mucosa transfer of the same.

If you are infected you should wear a mask, if possible, to protect others close to you from uncontrolled coughing or sneezing, to limit the extent that you spray virus all over the place when you cough and sneeze. Note that most masks are designed to stop you breathing something noxious in, not from breathing something noxious out. A cough or sneeze is still likely to push air contaminated with droplets out around the mask's filter element. This is partial protection for others, not complete protection.

If you are infected, infectious and non-symptomatic you won't be coughing and sneezing so wearing a mask just in case you're infected and don't know it will be as much use as tits on a bull. It won't stop you spreading virus all over the place by touching your eyes or nose and then touching things that others may touch - which is the other way you'll spread the disease if you're not coughing and sneezing.

The most dangerous droplets are ones approximately 10um in diameter that will float in the air and not quickly drop to the ground. These will not be stopped by a mask unless it is of a high grade and passes a fit test to minimise leaks around the filtering parts of the mask. Do not put too much faith in masks, even those of us who've had proper respirator training and know our masks fit.

Wearing a properly fitted, proper grade of mask if you're uninfected but in close proximity to people who are known or likely to be infected may offer some protection but please don't think of it as a sure-fire preventative.

For those of us that keep good quality masks as standard PPE for non-medical tasks, note that the good grade masks with one-way exit values are not the thing to use to protect others from yourself if you are infected.

Given the massive shortage of masks please do not use them if you don't actively need them. Using up what small supply you may have unnecessarily is something that you may come to regret later.

The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

The best way to avoid infection and infecting others is for everybody, infected and ostensibly uninfected alike, to follow standard good hygiene practices.


Lastly, if you are infected, or have good reason to believe that you might be infected - stay at home, do not go out in public unless strictly necessary. The question of "mask or no mask" doesn't come into it if you've put a door and some distance between you and the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 02:46:03 pm
Quote
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth. I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.

Yes, there is a mask shortage, build them for you own.

Even if wearing the mask only makes a minor difference, i think in this situation we should at least try ist. look at china/southkorea, threre they wear masks and may be have succeded.

Edit:
I just can't find a reason why we do not even try all wearing selfmade masks. there is nothing to loose.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 02:55:35 pm
Quote
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth. I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.

Yes, there is a mask shortage, build them for you own.

Even if wearing the mask only makes a minor difference, i think in this situation we should at least try ist. look at china/southkorea, threre they wear masks and may be have succeded.
No. They just wear masks for the placebo effect / false sense of security. Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all. The only thing which helps is to physically seperate people by keeping distance and keeping your hands clean. You are way too panicky. Just follow the advice from the experts.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 02:59:42 pm
Quote
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth.

Eyes?

Quote
I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.

If they are coughing and sneezing then, yes, they should bloody well be wearing masks. They ought to be in a normal cold or flu season, but that's not the way in most of Europe/the US. Perhaps it should be.

What's pointless is everybody, symptomless and symptomatic alike wearing masks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 03:00:43 pm
Quote
Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.

They do work, but they do NOT protect you if you are not infected. They protect everyone else if you are infected and wear the mask.

with corona many people do not know they are infected because they
a) are in incubation time
b) have a very mild corona
c) think it's the flu. here in europe where it's winter.

but if everyone wears a selfmade mask, then these group of infection people who don't know or don't think they are infecting would wear a mask too.

Quote
Eyes?

yes, you are rignt but not touching the mouth is at least a little reduction.

Quote
What's pointless is everybody, symptomless and symptomatic alike wearing masks.

Maybe. but what can we loose? and if the mask is mandatory, then all people who think they have only the flu would wear the mask too. why not just try it?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 17, 2020, 03:01:27 pm
Quote
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth. I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.

Yes, there is a mask shortage, build them for you own.

Even if wearing the mask only makes a minor difference, i think in this situation we should at least try ist. look at china/southkorea, threre they wear masks and may be have succeded.
No. They just wear masks for the placebo effect / false sense of security. Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all. The only thing which helps is to physically seperate people by keeping distance and keeping your hands clean. You are way too panicky. Just follow the advice from the experts.
:bullshit:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 03:12:16 pm
When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 17, 2020, 03:28:33 pm
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?

They do like my town , blew up a "low density ethylene" plant and  release petrochemistry smoke to atmosphere.  You will see that few cases are detect of coronavirus.  :-DD :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 03:53:36 pm
New study investigating stability of HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on different surfaces and estimating their decay rates using a Bayesian regression model.
NOTE: This link leads to the preprint pdf which has not been peer-reviewed. Funding support by NIAID, DARPA, NSF and SERDP.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2)



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 04:20:59 pm
TL;DR on the above:

SARS-Covid-2 exhibits shortest half-lives on copper and cardboard. So by the time your PCB and its packaging get to you from China it's going to be safe.  >:D

Quote
No viable virus could be measured after 4 hours on copper for HCoV-19 [SARS-Covid-2] and 8 hours for SARS-CoV-1, or after 24 hours on cardboard for HCoV-19 and 8 hours for SARS-CoV-1.

Longest half-lives are on stainless steel and plastic - watch those hand rails and door knobs.

Quote
HCoV-19 was most stable on plastic and stainless steel and viable virus could be detected up to 72 hours post application (Figure 1A), though the virus titer was greatly reduced (plastic from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 72 hours, stainless steel from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 48 hours). SARS-CoV-1 had similar stability kinetics (polypropylene from 103.4 to 100.7 TCID50/mL after 72 hours, stainless steel from 103.6 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 48 hours).

Aerosol half-lives are long enough to be concerning:-

Quote
HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 1.1-1.2 hours, and 95% credible intervals of [0.64, 2.64] hours for HCoV-19 and [0.78 , 2.43] hours for SARS-CoV-1.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 04:36:09 pm
Reporting something from Europe, Belgium.

Well people, it's a mess.

It is an illusion to think you won't get infected by the SARS-Cov-2 virus. You will get it, by a chance of maybe 70%, eventually, because it's everywhere. You may escape infection for now by complete isolation, wearing masks, hand cleaning or mainly being lucky, but you likely won't escape it over time because it will be around for a long time. Experts all agree on it. There is no immunity and it's many times more deadly and contagious than flu. What worse cocktail of bad factors would you need?

The import thing is staying at home as instructed, disinfecting/washing your hands, keeping distance, no kissing or handshakes. The only purpose of it, is to make sure there is no overload on the hospital system and lack of medical supplies, and the infection rate slows down. If the infection rate is very high, it's good for rapid immunity across the population but very bad for society as doctors will have to face cruel choices over who can be helped and live, and who can't because there is no room or equipment. In Italy, it got out of control this way.

I would like to get this message out, especially to the Americas as the wave is coming there now. Only strict observation of the measures put in place will save lives. Over here, people only realized the seriousness of it in recent days. Before, it was more of "it won't happen to me", "I've got important business to do", "it's a joke" and "let's get infected we don't care". It's only when emergency doctors started making dramatic statements in the media of how bad this really was and that it did not only apply to elderly people, even going as far as showing lung CT scans of critically ill young persons, that people started to take notice and shut down the jokes and soften "their priorities". Also, politicians didn't do a very good job, navigating between incompetence, scientific ignorance, pleasing the electorate and taking unpopular measures. They wasted precious time.

Yesterday in the news, an emergency doctor here said something really interesting. He said they're always seeing the same pattern of people coming in: they had some moderate flu for a week at home, then it went away for two days making them think all is good, and then they show up at the emergency department, just walking in not too ill-looking, complaining about dry cough and shortness of breath. When they then take a CT-scan, they see their lungs are very critically affected by the virus due to infectuous liquid build-up and conglomeration, eventually building up scar tissue in the lungs. He said: these people are critically ill, but they just don't know it yet. They are in a life-threatening situation. He also said the age range of people currently in intensive care was 30 to 50, and that many of the patients were healthy and fit individuals with no medical background!

In Belgium, we're two steps away from a total lock-down, and luckily everyone seems to get it, for now. Schools closed, teleworking, no physical contact, etc.

Wishing you all the best and strength.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 04:37:00 pm
Quote
Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.

They do work, but they do NOT protect you if you are not infected. They protect everyone else if you are infected and wear the mask.

with corona many people do not know they are infected because they
a) are in incubation time
b) have a very mild corona
c) think it's the flu. here in europe where it's winter.
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better. False information and conspiracy theories are the last thing we need right now. If there is one time in your life to STFU and do as being told it is now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DBecker on March 17, 2020, 04:47:18 pm
It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.

SARS and COVID-19 are also transmitted via feces...
I've non idea why, but AFAIK nobody observed pet-to-human transmission

From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?

There are many other nasty things that are spread with feces, but this isn't one of them.

This virus is fairly fragile.  It's easily destroyed by sunlight, alcohol solutions, active chlorine compounds, heat, and everyday disinfectants.  It remains viable only minutes or hours on surfaces.

It readily spreads by direct personal contact and aerosol spit.  That should be the major concern.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 05:03:31 pm
This virus is fairly fragile.  It's easily destroyed by sunlight, alcohol solutions, active chlorine compounds, heat, and everyday disinfectants.  It remains viable only minutes or hours on surfaces.

It does not matter. As far as I've heard from medics, it is very very very contagious. More than flu, which is already pretty bad. Like I said, it's safe to say you won't be able to avoid it, eventually. With protection and hygiene measures, whilst absolutely useful and important, you will just slow infection rate down. And that's the current objective to save lives, i.e. to make sure hospitals can cope with the flood of cases. Btw, I've read tests have shown the virus can survive for days on stainless steel or plastic. Not sure how to avoid these materials in our current daily life.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 17, 2020, 05:03:37 pm
Here, a week ago, all the regim slut "Journalist"  laughed ,mocked , and joked of the coronavirus and of people began to worry by the pandemia.

Today , a week  after , almost 12000 infected , 510 deaths and the economy destroyed.   :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

Here, this video.

https://www.dolcacatalunya.com/2020/03/asi-se-reian-del-coronavirus-los-telepredicadores-del-regimen/ (https://www.dolcacatalunya.com/2020/03/asi-se-reian-del-coronavirus-los-telepredicadores-del-regimen/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 17, 2020, 05:10:09 pm
When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts".

Y2K
WMD
Peak Oil

Personally, I think the "experts" are likely saying what they are about face masks for one of two reasons: 1) they are simply parroting what the other "experts" are saying ("peak oil!")  2) they are trying to prevent non-medical persons from depleting the supply.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 05:17:20 pm

MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

   Italy was hit hard because they didn't quarantine the first two cases that they found back in early February.  Around the 2nd they had two Chinese tourists that were sick and were hospitalized but they allowed them to continue of their tour of the country and to go on a cruise. Weeks later when Italians started getting sick, the authorities started finally started some very limited quarantines but by then hundreds of people all over Italy were infected as well as numerous people in the surrounding countries and some had traveled back the US and to Canada.  About one week later, the number of cases in Italy exploded. Then about a week after that, the number of cases in many of the surrounding countries also exploded.

   I've been watching all of this unfold here <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/> and in many local news reports.

   Italy, the US and most other countries waited MUCH too long before they started quarantining people and before they shutdown the cruises and other densely populated events.

   The thing that people need to get through their heads is that this virus is highly infectious days before the infected start feeling it and that the infected keep shedding it in their feces for at least a week (and probably much more) after they are clinically well. So it is VERY communicable. That's also why it was STUPID for the CDC to release those early patients at Lakeland AFB and to allow some of them to go hang out at the food court of the local mall in San Antonio.  The other thing that people need to realize is that it barely affects many children and young people so they tend to go on with their normal activities BUT all the while they are exposing other people to it.

  Go watch the video of the conference that took place in Boston back in late January. They medical folks there explained all of this WEEKS ago but were almost completely ignored.

  <https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d>
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 05:24:33 pm
Quote
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better.

Usually you are right. But here with Corona we, the western countrys do things very different from china and southkorea.

Regarding the masks, i would do what officials say, but there is exactly no official reason given why we shouldn't wear selfmade masks.

The official reasons are:
- there are not enough masks. yes, but this does not apply to selfmade masks.
- the mask does not protect you. yes, also right, but selfprotection is NOT the reason why i think that everyone should wear a mask.

It is, because if everyone has to wear a mask, then automatically everyone feeling fine but who is infected and transmitting is also wearing the mask. i havent either from politicians nor from media heard this thought. this is the reason why i am bringing it up here.

Here in europe and the US is wintertime, there are many people who cough and sneeze who don't wear the mask because it is flu-season. so they think it is flu but it might also be corona. they simply don't know. those people would wear a mask if wearing a mask was mandatory.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 05:30:00 pm
Reporting something from Europe, Belgium.

Well people, it's a mess.

It is an illusion to think you won't get infected by the SARS-Cov-2 virus. You will get it, by a chance of maybe 70%, eventually, because it's everywhere. You may escape infection for now by complete isolation, wearing masks, hand cleaning or mainly being lucky, but you likely won't escape it over time because it will be around for a long time. Experts all agree on it. There is no immunity and it's many times more deadly and contagious than flu. What worse cocktail of bad factors would you need?

The import thing is staying at home as instructed, disinfecting/washing your hands, keeping distance, no kissing or handshakes. The only purpose of it, is to make sure there is no overload on the hospital system and lack of medical supplies, and the infection rate slows down. If the infection rate is very high, it's good for rapid immunity across the population but very bad for society as doctors will have to face cruel choices over who can be helped and live, and who can't because there is no room or equipment. In Italy, it got out of control this way.

I would like to get this message out, especially to the Americas as the wave is coming there now. Only strict observation of the measures put in place will save lives. Over here, people only realized the seriousness of it in recent days. Before, it was more of "it won't happen to me", "I've got important business to do", "it's a joke" and "let's get infected we don't care". It's only when emergency doctors started making dramatic statements in the media of how bad this really was and that it did not only apply to elderly people, even going as far as showing lung CT scans of critically ill young persons, that people started to take notice and shut down the jokes and soften "their priorities". Also, politicians didn't do a very good job, navigating between incompetence, scientific ignorance, pleasing the electorate and taking unpopular measures. They wasted precious time.

Yesterday in the news, an emergency doctor here said something really interesting. He said they're always seeing the same pattern of people coming in: they had some moderate flu for a week at home, then it went away for two days making them think all is good, and then they show up at the emergency department, just walking in not too ill-looking, complaining about dry cough and shortness of breath. When they then take a CT-scan, they see their lungs are very critically affected by the virus due to infectuous liquid build-up and conglomeration, eventually building up scar tissue in the lungs. He said: these people are critically ill, but they just don't know it yet. They are in a life-threatening situation. He also said the age range of people currently in intensive care was 30 to 50, and that many of the patients were healthy and fit individuals with no medical background!

In Belgium, we're two steps away from a total lock-down, and luckily everyone seems to get it, for now. Schools closed, teleworking, no physical contact, etc.

Wishing you all the best and strength.

   Good post, you covered the situation well.  I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu! Like the guy on here 13 days ago that told me that in Germany they only had 50 cases and that it wasn't anything for them to worry about. As of this morning, Germany has over 8,000 cases and has added 812 new cases in the last 24 hours.

   FYI in my part of the US they just announced that they are extending all school closings to the end of the spring semester instead of just to the end of the spring break (announced only a few days ago).  It's sort of obvious that they're trying to break the bad news us slowly and not all at once.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: magic on March 17, 2020, 05:32:21 pm
SARS-Covid-2 exhibits shortest half-lives on copper and cardboard. So by the time your PCB and its packaging get to you from China it's going to be safe.  >:D
Did anyone test soldermask and ESD foam? That's the important question ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 05:35:43 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

It's math, basically. Each tick you miss on the x-axis of an exponential (infection) curve gets you hit by a smack of multiples on the y-axis. Add to that you need to look 14 days in the future on the x-axis, and there you have it. Italy was the first country outside Asia so they were taken by surprise. And they have a difficult demographic, too. I bear with the Italian people. If you ask me, and hopefully I will be wrong, the US is totally unprepared as well. It's understandable in some way, this is unprecedented. You just can't convince the general public to take "wartime measures" when only 20 people are infected.

Italy, the US and most other countries waited MUCH too long before they started quarantining people and before they shutdown the cruises and other densely populated events.

The Americas have no idea of what is coming their way now. Just like we had no idea of what was coming our way when the Italian case was considered "local". As you said, the incubation time is very long and it is very contagious, so anything you do now based on current evidence, you should have done two weeks ago. The only way to slow infection in the future is a drastic temporary halt of society life as we know it with measures beyond the current situation, and strict obedience by the population. Easier said than done.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 05:37:50 pm

From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?


  As a matter of fact, yes I do. https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)  According to it, the virus remains active in fecal matter for over a week after the person is clinically "cured".  Given that viruses like warm moist environments I suppose that it shouldn't be a surprise that it can be found in fecal matter, even after the patient is "cured".

   This could help explain some of the "reinfected" individuals and spreading from"cured" individuals that were noted in China.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Black Phoenix on March 17, 2020, 05:49:34 pm
Well probably already reported here:

Portugal closes the borders to contain the spread of virus, specially from Spain:

https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-and-portugal-partially-seal-their-borders-over-coronavirus-covid19-outbreak/ (https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-and-portugal-partially-seal-their-borders-over-coronavirus-covid19-outbreak/)

https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/portugal-to-close-border-with-spain-to-tourists-120031600058_1.html (https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/portugal-to-close-border-with-spain-to-tourists-120031600058_1.html)

https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/business/article241209116.html (https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/business/article241209116.html)

Compared with Spain, currently we have less than 350 cases and 1 death. Although there are a lot of border between both countries without any type of control, specially in the south by sea.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 05:55:09 pm
Quote
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better.

Usually you are right. But here with Corona we, the western countrys do things very different from china and southkorea.

Regarding the masks, i would do what officials say, but there is exactly no official reason
Here in europe and the US is wintertime, there are many people who cough and sneeze who don't wear the mask because it is flu-season. so they think it is flu but it might also be corona. they simply don't know. those people would wear a mask if wearing a mask was mandatory.
There is an official reason given: hands are a very important means of transportation of a virus. Even when you keep a distance. Touch your face anywhere and you have the virus on your hands ready to deposit it anywhere (remember your eyes and ears have a direct connection to your nose and mouth!). A mask could even be counter effective because now the virus is smeared all over an infected person's face and enjoying the ride waiting for getting transferred to the person's hands.

Edit: I'd like to emphasize flyte's remark: wartime measures. I told my kids that this situation is way worse compared to Chernobyl (which had the western part of Europe in a state of panic IIRC).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 05:55:25 pm
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu! Like the guy on here 13 days ago that told me that in Germany they only had 50 cases and that it wasn't anything for them to worry about.

Well, that's an easy one to convince people.

Citing virologist Marc Van Ranst: What is the difference with the flu?

Obviously, for 85% percent of the population this will be like a good flu, but if you're into that unlucky other 15% part, then you may get very ill, need intensive care like artificial coma and assisted respiration or possibly die. For a country like the US, that small unlucky 15% is about 50 million people. Now count how many free hospital beds there are, let alone specialized life saving equipment. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 06:04:56 pm

Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.


   The US is in the same situation.  The CDC bungled the early (NO) testing so we don't have any real numbers to go by EXCEPT the number of dead.  They've finally approved some states and a couple of private labs to do testing but I see that in my own state there are still 158 people AWAITING testing as of their last report.  That's significantly more than the total number of officially infected people at the time. However the CDC and the Florida State Health Department are no longer reporting any official numbers so that's a BAD sign.

   The administration said last week that they would have the capability of doing over 1,000,000 test per week by this week but I'm not seeing it. They are reporting higher number of officially infected cases but from everything that I can find out, the doctors and hospitals are still having to BATTLE the CDC to get an official tests performed and the back log for testing is in the hundreds in most, if not all, states.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 17, 2020, 06:14:58 pm
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu! Like the guy on here 13 days ago that told me that in Germany they only had 50 cases and that it wasn't anything for them to worry about.

Well, that's an easy one to convince people.

Citing virologist Marc Van Ranst: What is the difference with the flu?
  • it's more contagious
  • it's more deadly
  • there is no vaccine
  • there is no antiviral medicine
  • nobody has antigens, nobody is immune to it

Obviously, for 85% percent of the population this will be like a good flu, but if you're into that unlucky other 15% part, then you may get very ill, need intensive care like artificial coma and assisted respiration or possibly die. For a country like the US, that small unlucky 15% is about 50 million people. Now count how many free hospital beds there are, let alone specialized life saving equipment. Let that sink in.


There aren' bed for all severe infected
There aren't doctors and nurses for replacing  to infected and deaths
There aren't mechanic breathing
There aren't safety material for avoiding to infect the medic personal.
There aren't test for coronavirus.

But we are the better healthy system of the world.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 17, 2020, 06:17:21 pm
The handling here is a mess. A gal I'm friends with who works in one of our offices in another state has been sick recently, the symptoms are different than Covid but she decided to get tested anyway. She ended up spending a couple hours in a waiting area full of sick people, most of whom had masks but not everyone did and several were coughing all over. They took her to another room for a swab and then sent her back to the waiting area, then 45 minutes later to a hallway to swab for some other disease then back to the waiting area. Now it's a matter of waiting to hear the results, but I suspect she did not have Covid going in but was almost certainly exposed to it in the hospital. This sort of thing really reinforces my thought that it is best to not go anywhere near a hospital unless I'm seriously ill and believe I have it already.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 06:33:53 pm
Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

Edit: I want to add that there is a reason that I put "study" in quotes. After my first reading, this is an intelligent modelling position to guide policy - and that is certainly my opinion. I just want to make sure that we understand that it is not a published and peer-reviewed study. I intentionally avoid headlining a few numbers and statements. I understand the TL;DR mindset, but the other side is - didn't read enough to understand more than the headline, bottom line, bullet, short version, 10-second sound bite. I mean no disrespect to anybody here - we are all more similar than dissimilar.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 06:37:24 pm
Pensioners still cannot get basics at their supermarket. I just got back from our local supermarket. No toilet paper, no meat, no eggs, no pasta, no tissues, not nothing except junk food. The local chemist has run out of basic meds too. The supermarkets are out of control as is our government. Scott Morrison, our Prime Minister, triggered the panic by telling people to stock up.

The state government should impose limits and use the police to fine the hoarders. Better still, use batons on them. Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.

that's crazy
we are the most affected country in the world at the moment (in China the epidemic is over or sort of) but apart form some medical and personal protection devices we have plenty of food, cleaning products, etc in the supermarkets

I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 17, 2020, 06:45:04 pm
From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?

  As a matter of fact, yes I do. https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)  According to it, the virus remains active in fecal matter for over a week after the person is clinically "cured".  Given that viruses like warm moist environments I suppose that it shouldn't be a surprise that it can be found in fecal matter, even after the patient is "cured".

   This could help explain some of the "reinfected" individuals and spreading from"cured" individuals that were noted in China.

You're both right, or both wrong.  Virus was detected, but there's no known case of transmission by that route.  It is not known if it is possible.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 06:51:05 pm
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.

it does mean something unless you change the measuring (testing) method since virus has not mutated yet

here tests are performed to people with temperature of 37.5°C or above and COVID-19 compatible symptoms

if you take strict quarantine measures and go on with that sort of test you have a valid feedback to check the effectiveness of the quarantine as the percentage of symptomatic vs asymptomatic doesn't change much... it is a constant from a statistical POV

obviously there is a time lag and now we get the figures of (symptomatic) people infected days ago
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 17, 2020, 07:06:12 pm
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu!
You have completely misunderstood what I and others have said.

The point is that flu is dangerous: very deadly pandemics occur about three times a century.  We have not had a really bad influenza pandemic for decades now, and that is probably why people like you think that flu is not extremely serious.  The average death toll from influenza is over half a million dead, worldwide, each year.  It is worse than a regional war!

My point is that we, as a species, are behaving exactly like the idiots who build cities on a flood plain, and then run around panicing when the next bad flood comes along.  We live on a planet with a LOT of dangerous things, and influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.
While most annual flu seasons are "mild" -- you know, mild, like conventional war among a handful of countries --, every now and then a nasty variant comes along and kills a measurable fraction of the total human population.

There is nothing surprising, nothing exceptional, in this coronavirus pandemic.  It, or something like it, was fully expected; just not when or which virus.

The Chinese response to the outbreak is absolutely commendable.  In the aftermath, if we ignore the circle-jerking politicians congratulating themselves how well they managed the situation, we'll find that while the Chinese response was drastic, it was the most efficient course of action, both in human lives and in financial terms.  The question, that will not be answered in public in the West, is why we did not do the same, and why we haven't planned well enough for this even though we knew that this will happen -- just not when --, and that all signs point to this not being nearly the worst kind that we should be ready to expect.  (And don't tell me "we cannot", because we bloody well can.)

Like influenza, this coronavirus spreads mostly via droplets in exhalation.  If people wear a scarf or anything in front of their mouth, they drastically reduce the amount of virus-laden droplets they spread.  If people also wear gloves, without touching their face (or exhaled droplets) with those gloves, they minimize the spread of the virus.  Because it looks like a major part of the spread occurs before the person realizes they are infected, it is crucial that people who believe they are healthy behave as if they were infected, and try to avoid spreading the virus through droplets in their own exhalations.
If everyone did this, the pandemic would be over in three weeks.

The reason social isolation and self-quarantine is recommended, is that it works better than the above.  A single person is smart, but people are stupid as hell; you'd always have the one Typhoid Mary who thinks they don't have the virus, and do shortcuts that keep the infection spreading.  You know, the sly wipe of the nose, or cough in your gloved hand, when nobody is looking.  The only thing that works with stupid, is making stupidity harmless; and that's what isolation does.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 07:08:25 pm
Wearing masks (even DIY) is absolutely essential !!!
Who is saying it is not is an idiot !!!

https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/

PS: an absolutely primitive DIY mask has an effectiveness (to stop droplets) of about 25%.
That is a pretty good number when talking statistics of random processes..

well I had bought ten FFP3 breathing masks about one year ago

now I just have one left that's in good condition
I wear that when I have to get out and then sanitize it by an isopropanol bath (I was lucky to get 5 liters for just 19 euros, now they are out of stock)

I also wear disposable nitrile gloves to help me remember not to touch my face (you may get infected by touching your eyes - your mouth and nose should be protected by the mask)

I'm confident I'm safe if I keep a safe distance from other people
if somebody else sneezes or cough near me I'm likely to get infected
medical staff do need full face masks

BTW no mask protects you if you are so stupid to raise it to smoke a cigarette or to kiss somebody you do not see since long (you can't imagine how many idiots you can immediately spot when you get out)

the most important thing is: get out as little as possible, just to buy food and medicines if you or somebody you care for needs them
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 17, 2020, 07:10:54 pm
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.  [...]

There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks,  without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness.   A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 07:12:44 pm
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?

unfortunately yes... it looks like there are just plenty of idiots out there
I could shoot plenty of photos about them, but then I'd be and idiot as well as I would not abide by the quarantine for a valid reason  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 07:16:55 pm
Quote
Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.

They do work, but they do NOT protect you if you are not infected. They protect everyone else if you are infected and wear the mask.

with corona many people do not know they are infected because they
a) are in incubation time
b) have a very mild corona
c) think it's the flu. here in europe where it's winter.
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better. False information and conspiracy theories are the last thing we need right now. If there is one time in your life to STFU and do as being told it is now.
The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 07:20:49 pm
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?

unfortunately yes... it looks like there are just plenty of idiots out there
I could shoot plenty of photos about them, but then I'd be and idiot as well as I would not abide by the quarantine for a valid reason  :)

I'm afraid, yes. The head of German RKI said in a recent press conference there were people organizing "Corona Parties" and urged them to stop. Now that clubs and bars are being closed they're just trying to get on with their (anti-)social behavior as if nothing was happening. I guess it'll take public statements from medical personnel about how members of every age group are affected and potentially getting killed. I like the idea of showing CT scans of infected lungs. That's one drastic, visual statement.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 17, 2020, 07:23:54 pm
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?

unfortunately yes... it looks like there are just plenty of idiots out there
I could shoot plenty of photos about them, but then I'd be and idiot as well as I would not abide by the quarantine for a valid reason  :)

Case in point...

A coronavirus patient refused to quarantine, so deputies are surrounding his house to force him to (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/us/kentucky-refused-quarantine-coronavirus-trnd/index.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 07:24:31 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.

you are right
and the virus had a chance to spread in a few hospital within medical staff before being detected so it got such a strong foothold

there are plenty of people in bad condition going to hospitals and there they got an infection instead of a cure
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 07:26:47 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.

They also, apparently, have the oldest population in Europe.  The triaging of patients was no managed well, the hospitals over flowed and people who needed care could not get it.

True, False, False
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 07:32:29 pm
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.  [...]

There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks,  without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness.   A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 07:34:53 pm
BTW no mask protects you if you are so stupid to raise it to smoke a cigarette or to kiss somebody you do not see since long (you can't imagine how many idiots you can immediately spot when you get out)

That's Italians for you! If this was spread by waving your hands around while you talk then you Italians would be right royally bangaxed!  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 17, 2020, 07:44:02 pm
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD

Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 08:03:02 pm
Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

   Wow!  The onset of infectiousness is 12 hours to 4.6 days! That should set off alarm bells!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 08:09:45 pm
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu!
You have completely misunderstood what I and others have said.

The point is that flu is dangerous: very deadly pandemics occur about three times a century.

   My comment was not directed at you. I think you understand the situation better than most. My comment was directed at those who keep yelping that this virus doesn't matter because  20,000 people have already died this year in the US of the annual flu and of how many die yearly in auto accidents and other totally irrelevant numbers.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 08:17:25 pm
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.  [...]

There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks,  without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness.   A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.
Even if such a plan existed it doesn't help because the EU as a whole is so densily populated that a problem quickly spreads across all countries.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 08:29:46 pm
There is nothing surprising, nothing exceptional, in this coronavirus pandemic.  It, or something like it, was fully expected; just not when or which virus.

Yes there is. The combination of infection speed (how contagious it is) and long incubation period, makes it very dangerous. It basically means any measures you take are too late and within two weeks a good part of the world population is in a hospital bed.

Where you are right is that the pharmaceutical conglomerates did not find it lucrative enough to develop antiviral drugs for corona-type viruses like SARS and MERS, as is the case for e.g. HIV. There industry and governments massively failed there. If we had those drugs developed and on stock, it could have saved all those worst patient cases, and it could have terminated the global spread.


The Chinese response to the outbreak is absolutely commendable.

Well, the second part of it when the whole world knew about it and it got out of control. However, it is my understanding in the first part they tried to dismiss and ignore it, and even went as far as silence those who reported it. Let's say they were very effective in cleaning up their own mess. The fact they took unprecedented emergency measures soon after it was in the media, tells me they knew about it long before.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 08:32:18 pm
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?

yes... both air pollution and tobacco smoke seem to make the disease outcome much worse
these are just preliminary data although they are quite plausible
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 17, 2020, 08:35:21 pm
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD

Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential.

We have a running bet at work on when the riots start...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 08:42:00 pm
If you are infected you should wear a mask, if possible, to protect others close to you

NO
if you are infected you must quarantine yourself, stay at home or go to the hospital if you can't breath

the main problems are:
1) lots of people do not realize they are infected since are symptom-less
2) a few sociopath know they got the disease (some even tested positive) and just behave carelessly

AFAIK they caught one who knew he was positive but went shopping to the supermarket and another asshole who knew he was sick, but didn't want to miss his planned nose plastic surgery and so didn't tell the medical staff and infected some of them
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 08:54:33 pm

SARS and COVID-19 are also transmitted via feces...
I've non idea why, but AFAIK nobody observed pet-to-human transmission

From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?

there are registered cases regarding the SARS virus (via a defective bathroom aeration system in a Hong Kong building)
while COVID-19 has been detected in feces and tears besides that diarrhea is one of the known symptom (together with loss of taste and smell senses)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 08:55:30 pm
If you are infected you should wear a mask, if possible, to protect others close to you

NO
if you are infected you must quarantine yourself, stay at home or go to the hospital if you can't breath

the main problems are:
1) lots of people do not realize they are infected since are symptom-less
2) a few sociopath know they got the disease (some even tested positive) and just behave carelessly

AFAIK they caught one who knew he was positive but went shopping to the supermarket and another asshole who knew he was sick, but didn't want to miss his planned nose plastic surgery and so didn't tell the medical staff and infected some of them

I hate people who quote me out of context. What was the last thing I wrote in the same very same post you're quoting just part of?

Lastly, if you are infected, or have good reason to believe that you might be infected - stay at home, do not go out in public unless strictly necessary. The question of "mask or no mask" doesn't come into it if you've put a door and some distance between you and the rest of the world.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 08:55:49 pm
Well people, Belgium has just increased measures one step before a total lock-down:

- Everyone stays at home unless for essentials or really needed to get to the workplace
- One person per 10m2 in supermarkets
- Maximum groups of 2 persons allowed in public
- Social distancing mandatory including for all companies and public transport
- If not followed, police will fine and/or close down facilities

Something tells me by the end of next week this will be considered too soft and a total lock-down will be the case.

Some infected people who had less luck here have now posted reports or videos from their hospital beds, begging our fellow citizens to take this extremely seriously because, being healthy in their 40's and 50's they did not expect it to be that bad. They said it feels like hell, is painful and with extreme exhaustion. No visits, total isolation and doctors come and go dressed like martians. Whoever still doubts this is no more than just another flu, is a lost case, I'm afraid.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 08:57:13 pm

while COVID-19 has been detected in feces and tears besides that diarrhea is one of the known symptom (together with loss of taste and smell senses)

[Citation Required]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 17, 2020, 09:15:20 pm
In case you haven't stumbled upon it yet, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) seems to be a good place for stats.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 09:44:31 pm
Italy was hit hard because they didn't quarantine the first two cases that they found back in early February.  Around the 2nd they had two Chinese tourists that were sick and were hospitalized but they allowed them to continue of their tour of the country and to go on a cruise. Weeks later when Italians started getting sick, the authorities started finally started some very limited quarantines but by then hundreds of people all over Italy were infected as well as numerous people in the surrounding countries and some had traveled back the US and to Canada.  About one week later, the number of cases in Italy exploded. Then about a week after that, the number of cases in many of the surrounding countries also exploded.

That's a huge pile of bullshit.
Are you just the usual fascist looking for any chance to spread your bloody fake news?
Shame on you.


Anybody who can read Italian might check what REALLY happened from respectable Italian newspapers like Corriere della Sera or Repubblica or Sole 24 ore (I'm unsure, but they might publish in English too)

The first two cases in Italy where two Chinese tourists in Rome. They were very civil and sensible people who quarantined themselves wearing masks, staying in the hotel room and restricting from touching other people.
Once they felt worse, they called the emergency number. The procedure for that kind of emergency was ready, so they sanitized the room and checked all the people who had got in touch with the tourists. Nobody else had been infected.

The tourists were immediately put into isolation and fully recovered after a few weeks in ICU (A study showing the rapid and severe damage to their respiratory system is going to be published soon).

Italy was the first country (and afaik the only one) in Europe to block direct flight from China, one of the first to get back and quarantine Italian nationals from there and constantly monitored people who had suspicious symptoms for possible contact with infected zones.

The problem is we did not have a patient zero here in Italy, but various patient ONE. None of them had got in touch with anybody else coming from China and positive (no antibody) to COVID-19.
So when those people went to the hospital with respiratory problems nobody at first thought it was COVID-19. Most of them were more than eighty and/or with other severe pathologies so the doctors thought they were dying of ordinary flue.

Then there was a young and fit Italian guy who started to show strange and strong respiratory symptoms. He was the first one to be tested for COVID-19. He had a friend who had come from China a couple of weeks before. But his friend was clean. No symptom, no antibody of a past infection.

Once that first patient was discovered they started to test medical staff and later recent deaths and so discovered the virus had been spreading in several hospitals unnoticed for a couple of weeks.

Patient zero might have been a German national (as for a recently published German study) who got infected during mid January and then transmitted the disease to colleagues who have been in North Italy a short while later. But that's no longer relevant as the disease had already spread widely and since sick people do go to hospitals where there were several infected medical staff the disease spread very quickly and wildly.

It was just the worst combination of unlucky and unlikely events, a perfect storm.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 09:45:40 pm
Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

   Wow!  The onset of infectiousness is 12 hours to 4.6 days! That should set off alarm bells!

I am still going through it....Yes, there are a lot of alarm bells there. Not just the summary disease effects statements. The projections based on modelling the effects of various NPIs are more than sobering. For a while now, I have been hoping that there were feasible strategies (in the US)  that could support the Health Care system without it being overwhelmed to the point of dysfunction, were possible. Now, I am, sadly, rethinking that.

Please, someone tell me that I am not reading this correctly....e.g., A1...

Figure  A1: Suppression  strategy  scenarios  for  US  showing  ICU  bed  requirements.  The  black  line  shows  the unmitigated epidemic. Green shows a suppression strategy incorporating closure of schools and universities, case isolation and population-wide social distancing beginning in late March 2020. The orange line shows a containment   strategy   incorporating   case   isolation,   household   quarantine   and population-wide social distancing. The red line is the estimated surge ICU bed capacity in US.  The blue shading shows the 5-month period in which these interventions are assumed to remain in place. (B) shows the same data as in panel (A) but zoomed in on the lower levels of the graph.

[attachimg=1]

See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 17, 2020, 10:07:46 pm
Wouldnt surprise me.  In fact, I'd be concerned about what they call "surge capacity."

In the hospitals I worked in, even on a Friday/Saturday night, the ERs were always so packed that "surge capacity" meant parking beds at pre-marked locations in the hallways.

And yeah, you are reading that correctly....  These are not exactly "isolation wards."

ICU's are generally pretty heavily used.  And I'm concerned about the EQUIPMENT.  Hospitals only have a limited number of ventilators.  VERY limited.  And a very limited number of people qualified to run them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 10:14:01 pm
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 10:17:07 pm
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.  [...]

There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks,  without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness.   A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.
Even if such a plan existed it doesn't help because the EU as a whole is so densily populated that a problem quickly spreads across all countries.

the real problem is that there is European but no real Union.
Recently an Italian importer managed to order a huge amount of breathing devices from China. Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.
Surely we can't go on like that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Martin72 on March 17, 2020, 10:21:15 pm
Quote
Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.

Evidence please...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 10:21:57 pm
I hate people who quote me out of context. What was the last thing I wrote in the same very same post you're quoting just part of?

Lastly, if you are infected, or have good reason to believe that you might be infected - stay at home, do not go out in public unless strictly necessary. The question of "mask or no mask" doesn't come into it if you've put a door and some distance between you and the rest of the world.

I apologize, you're right
I had missed that
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 10:23:56 pm

while COVID-19 has been detected in feces and tears besides that diarrhea is one of the known symptom (together with loss of taste and smell senses)

[Citation Required]

can't provide that as it is from an Italian newspaper reporting about a German study... I just read that a few hours ago
probably other sources will publish that piece of news soon
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 10:26:26 pm
Wouldnt surprise me.  In fact, I'd be concerned about what they call "surge capacity."

Surge capacity typically means diverting critical care beds that would normally be reserved for planned operations that need CCU support (e.g. transplants, other major surgery with potential post-op complications) and (in the UK) putting CCU beds into use that have been mothballed due to lack of resources (e.g. staff) to keep them in regular use. CCU is very expensive to actively run, with a staff requirement of at least 1 per bed, 24 hours a day, thus it's not unusual for CCU resources to get mothballed if budgets get tight. On the other hand it means that these specialised beds are often sitting waiting for nothing more than a clean, stock check and staffing to be pressed into use - you don't have to wait to acquire equipment de novo.

CCU beds are always in a perilous state as soon as anything goes wrong. My local hospital has 3-4 CCU beds and only expects to have 2-3 in use at any one time, that's only 33% spare capacity in a hospital with 340 regular beds.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 10:26:58 pm
the real problem is that there is European but no real Union.
Recently an Italian importer managed to order a huge amount of breathing devices from China. Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.
Surely we can't go on like that.

Uh, wow. Any source for that?  :wtf: The only reference I found with Google was a report of China sending 10000 respirators and experts to Italy. The source for that, however, ... hm: https://www.suedtirolnews.it/italien/china-schickt-beatmungsmaschinen-und-experten-nach-italien (https://www.suedtirolnews.it/italien/china-schickt-beatmungsmaschinen-und-experten-nach-italien)

Not what I call reliable.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tinhead on March 17, 2020, 10:42:06 pm
i think it was good idea to buy 500pcs "already pre-used" masks from China, they worked for them, so they already rad-hard and will work for me.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 10:42:49 pm
Quote
Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.

Evidence please...

that was published on several Italian newspaper.
But I know that on March the 4th the German Ministry of Economy and Energy forbid the export of any kind of Individual Protection Devices included the ones I had ordered on mid February from Conrad Electronics.

Afaik France did the same.
OK please check if you can translate this: (it looks like they have been unseized now)
https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/mondo/coronavirus-19-mln-di-mascherine-per-litalia-bloccate-da-altri-paesi_16184369-202002a.shtml (https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/mondo/coronavirus-19-mln-di-mascherine-per-litalia-bloccate-da-altri-paesi_16184369-202002a.shtml) and can find any reference there.
I'm interested as you to check if that is true.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 10:48:26 pm
i think it was good idea to buy 500pcs "already pre-used" masks from China, they worked for them, so they already rad-hard and will work for me.

Yeah, good idea. [Fx: turns to audience] "Think of it as evolution in action."

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 10:53:54 pm
See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.

No, you didn't read it wrong. I think the US has few time left to act in a drastic manner, if the aim is to prevent what is happening to other countries who have acted as-needed. Aside from the medical cases and complications, the problem with this virus is:
Unless a country is willing to take very drastic isolation measures before they appear to be needed, as perceived by the general population, the filling up of its medical infrastructure will be caught in speed by the virus, and you're heading straight for the wall. It's not policy or politics, it's math.

If you would able to really take a snapshot of the exact real number of people infected right now, then it's maybe x100 times the current reported number. It's just that these people currently present no symptoms at all and happily infect others. But they will in two weeks. And in two weeks, the actual number of infected individuals will again be a multiple higher than what is being measured then. This goes on until about 60-70% of everyone has been infected, and then it goes down.

And yes, I'm certainly no expert in the matter, but from what I read it seems the US is heading for the opposite, i.e. underestimating it and taking too few measures.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 17, 2020, 10:58:06 pm
Germany as many other eu countries have indeed put an export hold on critical items such as masks and gloves. But what is the story ?
The italians did not allow chinese plains to land so they had to go through Germany? Or why did they not import themselves directly? So yes it looks like that part is true but they are released? Much quicker than any consumer item is released by german vustoms ;)

BTW: our health professionals are now recycling masks since they have an extreme shortage.
I have heard some have to work without adequate protection, doing the best they can. This is insane, insane times. Take care everyone gor yourself and loved ones.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 11:00:20 pm
CCU beds are always in a perilous state as soon as anything goes wrong. My local hospital has 3-4 CCU beds and only expects to have 2-3 in use at any one time, that's only 33% spare capacity in a hospital with 340 regular beds.

Well, you could think of this epidemic as a natural disaster occurring everywhere at the same time in a country. That's the main problem with it. This virus has a giant medical care depletion capacity. It's both fast spreading and stealthy for a long time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 11:02:20 pm
BTW: our health professionals are now recycling masks since they have an extreme shortage.
I have heard some have to work without adequate protection, doing the best they can. This is insane, insane times. Take care everyone gor yourself and loved ones.

it is the same all over the world and everywhere industries are repurposed to produce respiratory devices and masks
the truth is that everybody should have expected that but nobody did
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 11:08:13 pm
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.

Yes, I meant vertical horizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.

What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).

The most stringent NPI, which we in the US are heading for or are currently at, does not overload health care until a resurgence of infections in NOV. Under that scenario, a window of time exists to develop AND deploy pharmacological interventions, which would mitigate the resurgence in infections predicted for NOV.

To develop and deploy a vaccine in 8 months is unreasonable under any Phase 1, Phase 2a...etc FDA process that I am familiar with. While ~a year gets bandied about, it is a best case scenario in my view. Vaccines, however, are under development worldwide, even though in the US the very first trial has just now begun (afaik).

That, potentially, leaves us with non-vaccine pharmacological intervention in that short time window.

Administering antibodies is not a fantasy (take that #BoomerRemover, we are going to harvest your blood :) )

Antivirals (all the *virs and others (e.g., https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/ (https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/) ) are under consideration. Compassionate use might allow some deployment of some drugs within that time window, but completely novel treatments are going to be subject to the same basic FDA route - again in my view.

So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 11:11:28 pm
CCU beds are always in a perilous state as soon as anything goes wrong. My local hospital has 3-4 CCU beds and only expects to have 2-3 in use at any one time, that's only 33% spare capacity in a hospital with 340 regular beds.

Well, you could think of this epidemic as a natural disaster occurring everywhere at the same time in a country. That's the main problem with it. This virus has a giant medical care depletion capacity. It's both fast spreading and stealthy for a long time.

Based on the Imperial College estimates, across all age groups taken together, about 1 in 5 patients that needs hospitalizing because of Covid-19 will need a CCU bed. So a hospital designed to treat Covid-19 would have 1 CCU bed for every 4 regular ones rather that the 1:99 that's something like the normal ratio.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 11:12:52 pm
regarding the bullshit somebody wrote about the spread of the virus in Italy, you can also check Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy)

it looks like we got that from Germany...

Quote
It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genome.[30][31][32] The 38-year-old man was asymptomatic for weeks, reportedly led an active social life and potentially interacted with dozens of people before spreading the virus at Codogno Hospital

nobody expected that
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zucca on March 17, 2020, 11:13:56 pm
Keep your ass at home. The rest is not so relevant at the moment in my eyes...
Finger pointing is not productive, let's just help each other to overcome this mess.
What we write here will not change the situation, unless we are posting from our home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DBecker on March 17, 2020, 11:26:08 pm
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD

Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential. 

I've not seen anything besides the usual exaggerated stories.

People aren't out buying guns for this crisis.

Sure there are crazy preppers.  But they already have guns and ammo.  Way more than they need because there were people that believed the fake stories that Obama would take their guns.  Years of self-created ammo shortages were caused by people stocking up, not because people were using lots of expensive ammo shooting at targets.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 11:44:45 pm
See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.

No, you didn't read it wrong. I think the US has few time left to act in a drastic manner, if the aim is to prevent what is happening to other countries who have acted as-needed. Aside from the medical cases and complications, the problem with this virus is:
  • high infection rate and highly contagious
  • long incubation period of up to 14 days
Unless a country is willing to take very drastic isolation measures before they appear to be needed, as perceived by the general population, the filling up of its medical infrastructure will be caught in speed by the virus, and you're heading straight for the wall. It's not policy or politics, it's math.

If you would able to really take a snapshot of the exact real number of people infected right now, then it's maybe x100 times the current reported number. It's just that these people currently present no symptoms at all and happily infect others. But they will in two weeks. And in two weeks, the actual number of infected individuals will again be a multiple higher than what is being measured then. This goes on until about 60-70% of everyone has been infected, and then it goes down.

And yes, I'm certainly no expert in the matter, but from what I read it seems the US is heading for the opposite, i.e. underestimating it and taking too few measures.

I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.

THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.

Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 11:52:28 pm
So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.

Too complex to do anything other than guess at really. Many of the figures used as assumptions in the Imperial study are provisional (moreso than in science in general, which is always to some extent provisional). I see no reason to treat the Imperial study as anything less than "the best predictions we can make at the moment". We've no better working hypothesis, and I fully expect Imperial to revise their model (or someone else to build a similar but revised model) as more data becomes available and assumptions can be refined in the light of new data.

My concerns would be elsewhere. If the Imperial study is accurate (and for argument's sake lets take it as such) I fear it is short-sighted. I say this because if we achieved the effective level of control interventions to make things start to follow the Imperial graphs (on either the green or brown traces), as the general population sees a levelling off of infection rates they will become less compliant with the control measures. So we won't be waiting around for the putative September cut off of control measures to generate those peaks in Nov-Dec, they will happen sooner as folks take a more laissez-faire attitude to the controls.

Look at the difficulties we have here, among a group mostly made up of educated scientists and engineers, at getting some people to take this seriously enough. Imagine then, the difficulty getting "Bert the builder" or "Karen the data entry clerk" to continue taking preventative measures for five months that have financial and social costs to them when in three months time "I haven't seen people dropping like flies. I reckon it's all exaggerated, I'm going back to work/down the bar/whatever".

To maintain Imperial's controls for the next five months as they envisage, is going to require a level of coercion that the west is unaccustomed to and is likely to be increasing resistant to if the apparent disease spread is temporarily halted. The public will accept restrictions if they see "the enemy at the gate", they won't be so happy to do so if the "enemy" appears to them not to be materialising even though that is part of the plan and they've been told that. It will require a massive education drive to convince the public that this is just "holding back the flood" and continued isolation and other measure are still required; and this happens at a time when public confidence in government in the West is probably at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 11:53:21 pm
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.
Yes, I meant vertical horizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.

What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).
Well, even if the numbers are off by a factor of 4 then "we're fuxored" still applies. Over here they are already moving patients to different hospitals in order to distribute the load across the country and they are building triage tents in front of some hospitals. We ain't seen nothing yet!

Also the NPIs can only last for so long otherwise the economy will collapse and probably cause more deaths due to lack of electricity, water, sanitation, etc. Imagine getting a Cholera epidemic on top.

If there is some view on having a working vaccine I'm sure it will be fast-tracked and likely administered as part of a trial. AFAIK this is often the case in cancer treatments so people get the latest & greatest medicines.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 18, 2020, 12:02:07 am
So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.

Too complex to do anything other than guess at really. Many of the figures used as assumptions in the Imperial study are provisional (moreso than in science in general, which is always to some extent provisional). I see no reason to treat the Imperial study as anything less than "the best predictions we can make at the moment". We've no better working hypothesis, and I fully expect Imperial to revise their model (or someone else to build a similar but revised model) as more data becomes available and assumptions can be refined in the light of new data.

My concerns would be elsewhere. If the Imperial study is accurate (and for argument's sake lets take it as such) I fear it is short-sighted. I say this because if we achieved the effective level of control interventions to make things start to follow the Imperial graphs (on either the green or brown traces), as the general population sees a levelling off of infection rates they will become less compliant with the control measures. So we won't be waiting around for the putative September cut off of control measures to generate those peaks in Nov-Dec, they will happen sooner as folks take a more laissez-faire attitude to the controls.

Look at the difficulties we have here, among a group mostly made up of educated scientists and engineers, at getting some people to take this seriously enough. Imagine then, the difficulty getting "Bert the builder" or "Karen the data entry clerk" to continue taking preventative measures for five months that have financial and social costs to them when in three months time "I haven't seen people dropping like flies. I reckon it's all exaggerated, I'm going back to work/down the bar/whatever".

To maintain Imperial's controls for the next five months as they envisage, is going to require a level of coercion that the west is unaccustomed to and is likely to be increasing resistant to if the apparent disease spread is temporarily halted. The public will accept restrictions if they see "the enemy at the gate", they won't be so happy to do so if the "enemy" appears to them not to be materialising even though that is part of the plan and they've been told that. It will require a massive education drive to convince the public that this is just "holding back the flood" and continued isolation and other measure are still required; and this happens at a time when public confidence in government in the West is probably at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime.

Good, now you are seeing what I am writing about in my response to @flyte

One conclusion is that the stringent NPI has to be in effect longer than the end of Sep. In the US, we have a rather important election planned for early Nov (and starting a few weeks before with mail in ballets). IF that projection is credible, we either have to attempt a general election under strict NPI conditions (how the ef do you do that) or we have to relax/remove the strict NPI and incur the catastrophic failure of the health care system.

So, unless that modelling can be credibly criticized and replaced with more accurate modelling (that predicts something better and survives peer review scrutiny), we MUST bust ass and get a PI into the mix or figure out how to hold a general election under strict NPI.

It has a great deal to do with how the US goes forward.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 18, 2020, 12:06:24 am
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.
Yes, I meant vertical horizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.

What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).
Well, even if the numbers are off by a factor of 4 then "we're fuxored" still applies. Over here they are already moving patients to different hospitals in order to distribute the load across the country and they are building triage tents in front of some hospitals. We ain't seen nothing yet!

Also the NPIs can only last for so long otherwise the economy will collapse and probably cause more deaths due to lack of electricity, water, sanitation, etc. Imagine getting a Cholera epidemic on top.

If there is some view on having a working vaccine I'm sure it will be fast-tracked and likely administered as part of a trial. AFAIK this is often the case in cancer treatments so people get the latest & greatest medicines.

The example of cancer treatment is, hopefully, not a good example here. In cases of the last stages of a terminal conditions, approval of unapproved medication is more likely because of compassionate use. I can't think of any compassionate use medicine that is not "self-medicating" that is approved in thousands of cases - but maybe I will not be able to say that next year.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 12:36:23 am
Well, one of my relatives had the choice between going for the regular and experimental cancer treatment several decades ago. That person is still walking around.

Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 12:50:48 am
The example of cancer treatment is, hopefully, not a good example here. In cases of the last stages of a terminal conditions, approval of unapproved medication is more likely because of compassionate use. I can't think of any compassionate use medicine that is not "self-medicating" that is approved in thousands of cases - but maybe I will not be able to say that next year.

Slightly different circumstances, because the in-depth protocols for drug approval weren't existing then, but consider the rapid move to clinical use of penicillin in WWII. "Antibiotics" got that as a name because the prevailing wisdom was that they were "anti - living things", not anti-bacterials as they proved to be. With that as a background there was serious opposition in some scientific quarters to even trying them.  I think that the attitude will be much as it was in wartime  -  "Needs must when the devil drives" - and accelerated testing and safety trial protocols will get put in place to allow for clinical use of a vaccine in as short a time as is reasonably possible.

There's a closer parallel with cancer drug trials than might at first appear. With a 9.3% fatality rate for 80+ year olds infected with SARS-Covid-2 there's a much wider margin of appreciation for the trade off between risks of a foreshortened life from an experimental vaccine and risks of a foreshortened life from contracting SARS-Covid-2 in that age group. It's a rather different 'near end of life' situation than cancer, but it's kind of on the same spectrum. With fully informed consent, I'm sure that there are some brighter, braver people in this age group who would volunteer for a slightly riskier than normal drug trial with sightly more than normal rewards possibly associated with it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 12:59:58 am
Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

Several pending elections in the UK have been put on hold for the duration.

As far as the US presidential elections I think the situation is a bit more problematic. There will be people who remember Trump making noises and asking questions near the beginning of his presidency about quasi-legal ways to extend his term and about circumstances where he could just declare himself to continue to be president. Any other time, with any other president, and I don't think the body politic would have any issue with the idea that postponing elections was a sensible step. With Trump and his machinations I think he's built a level of distrust that might make it difficult, maybe impossible, to postpone the US elections.

A cynic would say that if looks like he might lose he'll postpone, if looks like he might win he'll want the elections to happen on schedule*.

*I'd apply that cynicism to any modern politician, not just Trump.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 18, 2020, 01:14:05 am


Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 01:38:39 am
Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.
Yes yes I got one !
Maybe sign language helps:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cuP6ntds4g (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cuP6ntds4g)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 01:44:13 am


Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.
That is a problem but I think many will see it as a test of political leadership for everyone involved. It would be political suicide to hold the US government hostage over who is to be the president during a crisis this severe. In the grand scheme of things it isn't important who is president.
Quote
  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.
Actually the banking systems aren't secure at all. World wide banks get robbed from billions of euros/dollars every year due to digital fraud. To the banks this is just cost of doing business.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 18, 2020, 01:45:35 am
This helps explain the actions taken by government leaders in the last few days.  Brace for impact!
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 01:51:36 am


Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.


My state has done mail-in voting for years, I don't think I've been to a ballot box in a decade and I have not voted in a voting booth in at least 15 years. I forget sometimes that not all states have mail-in.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 02:32:11 am
This helps explain the actions taken by government leaders in the last few days.  Brace for impact!
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

You're at least three pages behind the rest of us.

Do try to keep up!  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 18, 2020, 03:00:53 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 18, 2020, 03:09:05 am


Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.

It's a big unknown. I was looking around at some numbers...

California cast over 14 million votes in the last general election and about 58% were absentee ballots (mail in votes). https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee/  (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee/)

The USPS delivers ~ 187.8 million pieces of First-Class Mail per day. https://facts.usps.com/one-day/ (https://facts.usps.com/one-day/)

But, as was noted by @james_s, some states do not have mail-in voting and still others don't have mail-in voting without an excuse (and there are lists of acceptable excuses).

I don't know how difficult/legal it would be to change State voting procedures in just a few months.

Five states have delayed primaries so far. In Ohio, a judge disallowed the change and the Governor went ahead and did it based on a State of Emergency declaration. Primaries are basically smaller elections that decide who is going to running in the General election. Being delayed is, of course, not being cancelled.

If we were ever to institute and enforce law prohibiting large number gathering (can you do that in a state of emergency? don't know but probably, I would think so). If so, you would be running head-to-head with free elections and that would not go over at all. So, it seems like you would have to, at least, provide mail-in voting.

It is a big time mess that could be around the corner (~7 months).

I was looking at the daily new case data for South Korea (from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/))
[attachimg=1]

and thinking about how it could be used as a test for the predicted infection rates in the Brit report (the earlier posted figure), but a) there is not enough data yet and b) I don't know the status of the NPI there.

I'm sure that these types of examples will be watched carefully. I'm also confident that others are going to produce their models and we will look for agreement/departure from the Brit report predictions. In fact, since I assume that such has been going on in the US for a while, I am a little concerned that the US has not come out with anything refuting (or supporting) the report's predictions. Maybe that will be in tomorrows news.

I still like the idea of harvesting antibodies from millennials - you know, social conscience and all that  ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 18, 2020, 03:15:08 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
Oh shit !
Wishing her the best of luck and hopefully care too !
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 18, 2020, 03:23:46 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it.

Can you get her back to Australia? Even being held on an island for two weeks, having medical care is better than staying in France and waiting for it to progress.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 18, 2020, 03:31:49 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

  Best of luck to your daughter!  Keep us posted on her condition.

   I just looked and currently France is showing 118 cases per million people. If the hospitals are overloaded now I dread to think what it could be like in a week or two.  Same for most countries.

   There are 1846 new cases in the US today. That's over 30% increase from yesterday. It looks like we're starting that upward swing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 18, 2020, 05:24:11 am
Actually the banking systems aren't secure at all. World wide banks get robbed from billions of euros/dollars every year due to digital fraud. To the banks this is just cost of doing business.

I deal with banks all the time (our products are often used to encrypt transactions).  I 10000% agree with the above statement.  If you saw what I see every day, you'd take all of your money out of the bank, cut up all of your credit cards, and put your cash in your pillow...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 18, 2020, 05:38:35 am
Don't worry about US elections. They'll work themselves out. Primaries are at the state level, but in the end it's all a mechanism for the national party to pick a candidate. In the event the primaries are sufficiently disrupted, the fallback mechanism would be each party's leadership picking their candidate directly. Most likely Biden and Trump, given what's happened to date.

In the case of the President/Vice President, their current term still ends on Jan 20th, period. They only get another term if they're elected to it. It would take a constitutional amendment to change that. If for any reason the electoral process didn't happen, it would invoke a line of succession for an acting president until elections can be held. That could actually result in acting President Pelosi, believe it or not. Speaker of the House would be the top of that list. No, I don't expect those of you from elsewhere to know such details. Way too many US citizens are ignorant as well.

Now lets get back to the real subject rather than straying into what could easily become a political discussion.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 18, 2020, 05:58:41 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it.

Can you get her back to Australia? Even being held on an island for two weeks, having medical care is better than staying in France and waiting for it to progress.

France is all border closed, inclusive they have imposed controls to trucks , at first,the trucks had free access.

Now, i don't know like France  will keep the lockdown  in the zones "no-go".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 18, 2020, 07:41:21 am
Wow. The German Big Brother sounds like some heavy-duty viewing - the have been 'in isolation' for six weeks.

From reading tweets about it, tonight the producers sat them down and said: "Well, um, there is a pandemic going on.... ... here are some videos from friends and family."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zucca on March 18, 2020, 07:48:11 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus

Feel for you, my cousin got it but she recovered. In her case the hit was more in her psycho than body. You start thinking who got it because of you in the past two weeks, and even the people you love are involved. I not even mention the rest of the story....

My old parents in Italy are in risk, and I can not do nothing for them, I am now located in Germany (...) .
It's horrible.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 08:17:36 am
Report from a friend of the family who drive lorries Europe<>UK has said they have stopped the drivers and tractor units.  The docks are now loading the trailer units onto ferries with tugs only.  No citation though.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 18, 2020, 09:38:00 am
Spoke to my daughter about a half hour ago. She had a few aches, tired etc and the temperature was up yesterday, but now it has come down. She is relatively young and very fit (runs half marathons), never eats junk food, has no underlying conditions and more recently (probably a good thing) was forced to work about over an hour in each direction thanks to strikes. So I guess her immune system is very good. She wont come back to Australia as she is a French dual citizen working and is well settled there and knowing what is going on here, she might have difficulty getting back. She book Etihad, but the airline is overwhelmed and you cannot get through. Prior to the lockdown, she said you cannot get rice at the big supermarkets. So she walked into a small Chinese grocery store - no problems. 5kg bags of rice and whatever are plentiful. She cannot go out now, but is fine. The French seem to be similar to us Australians - the herd mentality.

I am fearful of this massive cash splash by these panicking western governments. Economics 101: Too much money, not enough goods = inflation. High inflation leads to high interest rates.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: EEVblog on March 18, 2020, 09:51:27 am
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 18, 2020, 09:55:15 am
This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 18, 2020, 10:05:07 am
Just passed 200,000 cases by woeldometer"s count...

Expecting 300k in four days :(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 10:16:23 am
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".

There's plans over here to systematically test blood bank samples for coronavirus immune globulines  in order to assess the true spread of the virus. Also, development is underway for a new type of tests that will deliver results in minutes instead of days. Works similar to a pregnancy test. These tests will not be as sensitive as the currently dominant RT-PCR test kits but it is known that the virus load in the throat is very high already when people start to complain about symptoms. These tests will be sensitive to the proteins of the virus' hull, not to the RNA. You need a higher concentration of virus material but as mentioned, that will not be a problem. Once produced in masses, they will immensely improve test coverage.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:27:13 am
I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.

THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.

Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?

Correct, albeit it would be hard and premature to stick a number on it. But measures will need to be applied for months, not just weeks.

And there's many unknowns, like general population health and immune response. But, on average, people are the same whichever side of the globe. The phantom of "we have a better a health care" will hit hard, as no health care system will be able to cope with the load of a free SARS-Cov-2 virus spread. Just look at what happened to other countries so far and their high healthcare quality standards.

But regardless of how accurate the report predictions really are, the NPI protocol will have to be very strict, in relative terms. Always a multiple stricter than what appears needed as given by the current figures, due to the reasons I've listed before. And there is the challenge, to get public opinion behind such measures without a readily observable facts in proximity. People are typically only willing to act based on current facts, not on impending trouble, even if it's just two weeks ahead.

The other part of your discussion, relaxing the NPI, is what I would call the phase two problem. Over here, this still has to come and China is about to enter it. I've seen statistics of previous old epidemics of the past which suggest that when measures are released too quickly, you effectively get a second, even higher, infection peak. So that's a very real worry indeed. And it will happen, people will feel "it's over and I want to get out now".

But, these would be "trouble for later", as we're all in the first phase of containment now and regarding the US, it still has to enter it the coming days/weeks.

However, regions which had a bad phase one, should have a less troublesome phase two, as their group immunity will be better.

Basically, as I've said before, there's two extreme options in the spectrum, none of which are realistic:

All realistic options are in between those. The more you go toward the last option, the longer the NPI measures period becomes and the less it will stress health care infrastructure, at the expense of economical distress.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 18, 2020, 11:49:43 am

(Attachment Link)

See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong.
You are reading it wrong. The chart shows what would happen if both NPI scenarios last till the end of August (the blue band shows period of the restrictions assumed by the model). For example, for green line it tells that severe NPI measures including school closures could be efficacious. But once the restrictions are lifted at the start of September, health care system will become overwhelmed in less than 2 month, unless there would be some changes not taken into account by the model (like new therapies reducing the number of severe cases, virus mutations, availability of vaccine).

However, the chart does not tell what would happen if the restrictions stay in place beyond September, or how fast country would be left without available ICUs if restrictions are lifted earlier.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 18, 2020, 11:52:06 am
Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".

By that theory, we would have eradicated measles and polio for long.
Herd immunity will never work unless you forcefully contact everyone with the virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 18, 2020, 12:21:25 pm
The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.

Experts are ok. I mean, real medical experts. WHO has given good advice; Chinese health experts have given good advice. They have also given good advice to the governments all over the world. But the governments didn't listen, because they are freaking stupid and the fear.

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

For many, it's very confusing. For example, here I believe people have taken the official advice quite seriously, but because the official response has been two weeks too late from the start, it doesn't help. You need to listen to the actual experts directly, bypassing the officials (who add the 2-week delay). But only a small percentage of us does this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 12:26:30 pm
All these measures just serve to buy time with economic damage. We need to increase the amount of intensive care units and at the same time plow ahead to discover effective methods of medical intervention. Economic damage will eventually force us to lift the restrictions on travel and business. Predictably, we'll all be walking around with face masks for many months.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 18, 2020, 12:28:59 pm
Although EU is closing its borders to curb the spread of the pandemic, Finland and Sweden have emphasized that humanitarian migrants can still cross our borders unhindered, because that's what is most important right now, right?

For some people/politicians, ideological goals override even the life and death of others. :palm:

If my suspicions are right, this "we'll do some of the things suggested, but not all" approach will be worse than either the full isolation or no isolation at all, because ideological exceptions tend to have a demoralising effect.

I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results.  But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 18, 2020, 12:34:59 pm
See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.

In that model, the actions are performed in a single, 5-month long step function (drawn as the blue background); these models completely stop the actions after 5 months, so it's not unsurprising that every scenario includes a second wave. Do note, however, that this second wave is smaller than the unmitigated wave. This is comforting.

In reality, the orange line and green line models would need to be accompanied with another action region (another blue region) to mitigate the secondary peaks. This would cause tertiary peaks, but they would be even smaller.

I'm sure the models do not represent the reality exactly, but they do show the mechanisms. Taking action is better than no action, but it's still bad, and likely, second and third waves will occur, requiring more actions; but it gets less severe once time goes by, especially when coupled with advancements in finding at least somewhat effective medicines; or finally, vaccine.

Another option, instead of pulse-width-modulating the response, is to adjust the level of social isolation (and other means; but social isolation is the biggest contributor) in a continuous, non-step-like manner, to regulate the number of cases.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 12:36:15 pm
I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results.  But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.

Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 18, 2020, 01:59:15 pm
Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?
Social pressure only works in groups of less than 2,000 or so people.  In cities like Helsinki, where a lot of people have moved to the city as young adults, anonymity is used as a shield against social pressure.  It is like backlash, after growing up in smaller circles where everybody knew you; suddenly you find yourself having the ability to sidestep all social pressure, and do what you want: it's not like they know you.

I do see a lot of young people just completely disregarding any quarantine efforts.  However, I've also seen indications I haven't seen here before, youngsters occasionally offering help to older people they don't know.  That could have been just a random occurrence, though.

What I do know, is that Finns will quietly (grumbling to themselves and their friends) do what they are told, as long as everyone has to do the same.

You let any subset of people off the hook, and very soon nobody will do it.  That sort of fairness is at the core of being a Finn.  "Is there really a need for social distancing, when our borders are kept open for humanitarian immigration?"  "If humanitarian immigrants get to travel as they wish, why should I stay home?"  It is this last one, that will bite Finland in the ass, I believe.

Now that we know that the virus becomes infectitious within a day or two, while the symptoms take around five days to become apparent, social distancing -- or whatever that makes people who believe they are not infected to behave as if they were, and stop spreading the virus around -- and quarantines are even more important than originally believed.  When the symptoms are detectable, the person has been spreading the virus already for days.  That is what we must try to limit here.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BU508A on March 18, 2020, 02:03:39 pm
Guys, for everyone with a 3D printer and want to help regarding the COVID-19 pandemie,
this is a very interesting project:

https://twitter.com/jonisborn/status/1238525868546445312

Quote:
We are working on open source ventilators in order to have a fast and easy solution to be reproduced and assembled locally worldwide.
If you have any skills that you consider might help, join us @ https://projectopenair.org
#projectopenair please RT and share
Earth globe americas
Flexed biceps
 #TogetherWeRise
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 18, 2020, 02:05:19 pm
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 02:07:11 pm
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".
Do they care? In Europe they have an influenza monitoring website to collect data. But that doesn't help much right now; it is nice for a hindsight report. Compare Germany and the Netherlands for example. Germany has over 10k confirmed cases and 26 deaths. In the Netherlands there are 2k confirmed cases and 58 deaths. One would say that the Netherlands has at least 10 times more cases than is being tested for.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 02:40:20 pm
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 18, 2020, 02:47:46 pm
For the people still think the coranavirus only kill to elder people or than they have previous pathologies.

Today, a Military Policeman  with 37 years old and without previous pathologies have dead.

https://www.augc.org/comunicados/representante-augc-en-madrid-primer-guardia-civil-fallecido-por-contagio-coronavirus_20078_102.html (https://www.augc.org/comunicados/representante-augc-en-madrid-primer-guardia-civil-fallecido-por-contagio-coronavirus_20078_102.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 03:03:36 pm
For the people still think the coranavirus only kill to elder people or than they have previous pathologies.

Today, a Military Policeman  with 37 years old and without previous pathologies have dead.
Nobody ever claimed that younger people are not affected. The numbers however show that younger people have a significantly lower chance of dying from the Corona virus. Pointing out single cases is not helping anyone.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 18, 2020, 03:04:14 pm
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?
Follow our instincts. Do what WE think make sense and look ahead how events may unfold. It is not a rocket science. It was clear 2 weeks ago borders must be shut off here in North America, let alone in Europe.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 18, 2020, 03:15:18 pm
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?
Follow our instincts. Do what WE think make sense and look ahead how events may unfold. It is not a rocket science. It was clear 2 weeks ago borders must be shut off here in North America, let alone in Europe.

What do we do when my instinct is different than your instinct?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 03:21:24 pm
This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!

Anybody who's been a regular reader of New Scientist or similar level-headed board science journals/magazine could have told you that this is a "not of, but when" situation. There have been calls for better emergency preparedness for a pandemic going back to the 1980s when I started reading New Scientist.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 03:32:59 pm
There's plans over here to systematically test blood bank samples for coronavirus immune globulines  in order to assess the true spread of the virus.

That's a canny idea.

Quote
Also, development is underway for a new type of tests that will deliver results in minutes instead of days. Works similar to a pregnancy test. These tests will not be as sensitive as the currently dominant RT-PCR test kits but it is known that the virus load in the throat is very high already when people start to complain about symptoms. These tests will be sensitive to the proteins of the virus' hull, not to the RNA. You need a higher concentration of virus material but as mentioned, that will not be a problem. Once produced in masses, they will immensely improve test coverage.

I'd imagine that more than one group started working on this as soon as it looked like SARS-Covid-2 was a problem. It's probably an ELISA test. They are relatively quick to develop, the trickiest bit is genetically engineering a bacterium or yeast to produce antibodies to the virus' coat proteins. The hard part is producing a DNA sequence to code for an antibody to the coat proteins, after that its just routine work that has been done for 100 ELISA tests before. It's easier to make an ELISA test that produces a colour change that's outside the visible spectrum, uses fully wet chemistry and needs an instrument to read the results (similar, ish, to blood glucose meters that take test strips). Producing one that indicates with a visible colour change and only uses dry chemistry (like pregnancy tests) is harder. So it's possible that we'll see a laboratory version quite some time before we'll see a 'field test'.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 03:54:08 pm
Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".

By that theory, we would have eradicated measles and polio for long.
Herd immunity will never work unless you forcefully contact everyone with the virus.

Please quote the right way. I've said those were the ends of the spectrum, not some realistic options.

And yes, this kind of spreading would probably work to achieve rapid and broad global population immunity, unless the virus mutates very frequently (another danger). The high degree of contagiousness and rapid spread would boil down to a forceful contact. Polio is almost eradicated, for practical matters, much less with measles due to the absence of vaccinations in poor countries and infection of newborns, but both can be said to be "under control" compared to a pandemic like the current one. Total eradication and widespread immunity are different things.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 04:10:19 pm
Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".

By that theory, we would have eradicated measles and polio for long.
Herd immunity will never work unless you forcefully contact everyone with the virus.

Whether herd immunity develops depends on how widespread an infection is, and that in turn depends on how good an infection is at spreading itself. There's a minimum level of infectiousness for a disease before it is capable of naturally generating herd immunity. The 1918 flu epidemic was infectious enough and that's why it eventually died out. Other diseases aren't sufficiently infectious enough for a sufficient proportion of the population to develop active immunity to the same strain in a short enough period of time for herd immunity to naturally occur. We don't yet know for a fact, but it looks like SARS-Covid-2 likely meets the criteria for a virus that would, eventually, trigger herd immunity.

Of course we have an artificial method of inducing herd immunity for many diseases by inoculation with a vaccine. That creates the same active immune response in a large proportion of the population exactly as if we had "forcefully contact[ed] everyone with the virus". This fails to create herd immunity unless a critical portion of the population is inoculated (e.g. outbreaks of measles in modern times as certain individuals have declined to have their children inoculated against measles).

Herd immunity 101 - Just for the benefit of those who don't know what some of us mean by herd immunity.

Herd immunity is where some, but not all, individuals in a population are immune to a disease in a way that effectively protects the whole population from that disease. The idea is that enough individuals have active immunity* to a specific disease that should a single individual (who is still susceptible to the disease) catch the disease it won't spread. If enough individuals have active immunity then the chance of an infected individual contacting and infecting another susceptible individual before they have either recovered or died from a disease is significantly reduced. It doesn't mean that the disease can't spread at all, but that its chances of spreading are so reduced that only odd individual cases will be seen instead of outbreaks involving many individuals.

*Active immunity (also called specific immunity) - where an individual has either had a disease and recovered, or been vaccinated against the disease so that they have antibodies to the disease, This allows the immune system to immediately recognise a disease and mount a defence to it as soon as the disease organism is encountered. Contrast with passive or non-specific immunity where a disease organism has to be causing problems before the body mounts a defence, by which time it's already a disease in progress. It's like the bouncers on the door of a club having the photo of a troublemaker rather than having to wait for a fight to have broken out (that might spread) before dealing with the troublemaker.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 04:16:23 pm
In reality, the orange line and green line models would need to be accompanied with another action region (another blue region) to mitigate the secondary peaks. This would cause tertiary peaks, but they would be even smaller.

If you read the whole paper you'll see that they do model a situation where there are restrictions, they are lifted when spread slows, reapplied when spread speeds up again, and this pattern is repeated.

[attachimg=1 width=1024]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 18, 2020, 04:24:28 pm
And yes, this kind of spreading would probably work to achieve rapid and broad global population immunity.

Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.

The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 18, 2020, 04:51:17 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 04:51:51 pm
Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

Naa, the Home Secretary has lent him a copy of this, and Nanny has tucked him up with a glass of warm milk:

(http://d.gr-assets.com/books/1353062334l/3021316.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 04:53:44 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??

Imperial report, page 7, 510,000 deaths.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 05:17:34 pm
And yes, this kind of spreading would probably work to achieve rapid and broad global population immunity.

Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

...
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.

You're again cherry-picking my quotes. I've never said this would actually be a solution let alone a good idea. It's the theoretical end of a spectrum, the other hypothetical end being a complete freeze of human interaction. I've repeated this several times above, of course this would be an uttermost cruel solution from a society point of view. And so far mortality rate has been 3-3.5% for the known infected about everywhere, so indeed real mortality rate over all infected won't be anything lower than 1-2% of the actual population. That's why people should worry, taking me back to my first posts in this threads. If Boris is really thinking of this for the UK as you said, he's going to end up in history books, on the bad side.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 18, 2020, 05:25:03 pm
You're again cherry-picking my quotes.

Don't get me wrong. I have nothing against you, I was just posting against the extreme solution that you referred, not the one you proposed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 05:25:37 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??

Current mortality rates on known infected individuals are in the 3-3.5% range (last time I've checked at least, but it has been pretty much the same since the outbreak in China). However, more individuals get infected than just the known cases, who present few or no symptoms, or simply because countries can't test everyone. So this lowers the real mortality rate vs. a population. Experts think this would take it down to about 1% or so, taking the infected individuals into account who stayed under the radar. But this is still a vast number of individuals, as correctly pointed out by the reply poster, assuming you would do nothing to contain the outbreak.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 05:37:35 pm
You're again cherry-picking my quotes.

Don't get me wrong. I have nothing against you, I was just posting against the extreme solution that you referred, not the one you proposed.

To be very clear: the extreme endpoint I've mentioned is just that, an endpoint, not a solution. At least not a humane one. Anyone advocating such horrors would be on his own morals and history will judge him or her, as far as it concerns me. The danger with this virus' cocktail of properties, is exactly that: if you do nothing as a population, you're heading for straight horror.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 18, 2020, 06:04:03 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??

Current mortality rates on known infected individuals are in the 3-3.5% range (last time I've checked at least, but it has been pretty much the same since the outbreak in China). However, more individuals get infected than just the known cases, who present few or no symptoms, or simply because countries can't test everyone. So this lowers the real mortality rate vs. a population. Experts think this would take it down to about 1% or so, taking the infected individuals into account who stayed under the radar. But this is still a vast number of individuals, as correctly pointed out by the reply poster, assuming you would do nothing to contain the outbreak.

That number is pretty important one, I would say. The issue I see is the CFR values I've seen and heard in last 2 weeks varies from 15 to 0.1.

For example a report from 2014 on H1N1 influenza 2009 pandemic CFRs:

Quote
There is very substantial heterogeneity in published estimates of case fatality risk for H1N1pdm09, ranging from <1 to >10,000 per 100,000 infections

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 18, 2020, 06:15:30 pm
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD

My grandfather had a TON of weapons and roughly 60,000 rounds of ammo. He slept with a gun under his pillow and a shotgun under his mattress. He literally never hurt anybody and died with not only a stockpile but highly illegal weapons as well that people are afraid of, luckily guns can't shoot themselves. For some people it's just a thing they do, for others they're crazy. You never know what is going to make someone comfortable but it doesn't mean they're going to do anything wrong, they're mostly just trying to make themselves feel safe. It can backfire but I'd rather even wackos feel safe rather than paranoid.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 06:27:04 pm
I think a lot of the wackos are just hoarders, you see the same thing with test equipment. Nobody really needs 10 guns just like nobody really needs 10 oscilloscopes but when something is a hobby we tend to accumulate more of whatever items we enjoy tinkering with than we really need. Also some people really are nutty, although I gotta say, after seeing the panic, hoarding and generally bizarre behavior occurring around the Covid virus the crazy guys with hideouts full of supplies and weapons in rural Idaho and such don't look quite as crazy as they did. I shudder to think what will happen when a much more deadly virus comes along, even this one is going to cause MASSIVE economic fallout. I would not be surprised if more people die due to losing their jobs and in turn losing their healthcare, food and eventually shelter than die from contracting the virus. A massive recession or depression WILL kill people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:34:23 pm
Social pressure only works in groups of less than 2,000 or so people.  In cities like Helsinki, where a lot of people have moved to the city as young adults, anonymity is used as a shield against social pressure.  It is like backlash, after growing up in smaller circles where everybody knew you; suddenly you find yourself having the ability to sidestep all social pressure, and do what you want: it's not like they know you.

I do see a lot of young people just completely disregarding any quarantine efforts.  However, I've also seen indications I haven't seen here before, youngsters occasionally offering help to older people they don't know.  That could have been just a random occurrence, though.

What I do know, is that Finns will quietly (grumbling to themselves and their friends) do what they are told, as long as everyone has to do the same.

You let any subset of people off the hook, and very soon nobody will do it.  That sort of fairness is at the core of being a Finn.  "Is there really a need for social distancing, when our borders are kept open for humanitarian immigration?"  "If humanitarian immigrants get to travel as they wish, why should I stay home?"  It is this last one, that will bite Finland in the ass, I believe.

Now that we know that the virus becomes infectitious within a day or two, while the symptoms take around five days to become apparent, social distancing -- or whatever that makes people who believe they are not infected to behave as if they were, and stop spreading the virus around -- and quarantines are even more important than originally believed.  When the symptoms are detectable, the person has been spreading the virus already for days.  That is what we must try to limit here.
"There has to be a way to implicate immigrants in this mess."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 18, 2020, 06:34:41 pm
Nobody really needs 10 guns .............
If it's a pursuit you don't partake in you can be excused for thinking such however for those that do and partake in the many sporting disciplines 10 might not be enough.
Like screwdrivers, you need a different one for each job.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 06:35:13 pm
That number is pretty important one, I would say. The issue I see is the CFR values I've seen and heard in last 2 weeks varies from 15 to 0.1.

We're in the wild guessing range so it seems. There is shortage of everything, including test kits. So figures are off. The WHO wants countries to test more so they get their numbers right, but what do you do when there's a limited amount of tests left in the field? They mainly reserve them for hospitalized patients or severe cases. Others with suspect symptoms are told to stay at home and call emergency when its gets really worse, period.

But before hell broke lose on this side of the globe and all was in China, I've counted mortality several times and always came in that 3-3.5% range. At that time, one could suppose there were still sufficient test kits available. So an actual total mortality rate of 1% in an uncontrolled situation makes sense. Taking into account untested individuals, the no-symptom individuals and individuals that build up immunity and slow the spreading down. I suspect the latter is going to be really limited, given the speed the infection is progressing and the total absence of immunity. Over time, yes, but not now.

Observing these numbers I found them worrying and weeks ago I spoke about them once in a while. They were usually met with some laughter and "ok, shall we get another drink now?". Now we're here.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:42:01 pm
Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.

The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 06:51:14 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

It was the second wave of the Spanish flu that killed nearly every person it infected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 18, 2020, 06:58:26 pm
Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.

The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

The coronavirus will almost certainly kill me but the flu wouldn't and it's pretty unlikely I'd die randomly anyway. I have severe asthma and just got discharged from the hospital for a pneumomediastinum. Anybody with COPD issues, or alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency is at much higher risk to this than most anything else they would have caught otherwise. This isn't something you should dismiss as just slightly accelerating the inevitable as it can kill a lot of people who otherwise have a lot of time left.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 07:10:00 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

It was the second wave of the Spanish flu that killed nearly every person it infected.

Interestingly, the high total fatality count of the second wave was atypical and (according to Wikipedia) is attributed to the conditions in the front trenches during WW1. The second wave spread there and the severely sick soldiers were moved out of the battlefield in crowded trains, spreading the virus like crazy. It's atypical because (usually) the deadlier a virus strain, the less chance it gets for reproduction. Due to the conditions during WW1 the selection was reversed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 07:22:45 pm
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

I wish her a prompt recover.
In any case here in Italy they hospitalize just people with severe symptoms.
Most of affected cases are just quarantined at home as they manage to get over the disease with just flue-like symptoms.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 07:38:19 pm
The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.

Experts are ok. I mean, real medical experts. WHO has given good advice; Chinese health experts have given good advice. They have also given good advice to the governments all over the world. But the governments didn't listen, because they are freaking stupid and the fear.

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

For many, it's very confusing. For example, here I believe people have taken the official advice quite seriously, but because the official response has been two weeks too late from the start, it doesn't help. You need to listen to the actual experts directly, bypassing the officials (who add the 2-week delay). But only a small percentage of us does this.

To tell the truth nobody foresaw this kind of development, neither did WHO experts who at first thought that checking temperature with IR devices at the airports, like they did during SARS and MERS crisis, would have been enough.

Italian health minister was criticized because he had shut off all direct flights from China. He was a bit late, but if all the European countries had done the same and had tracked all people who had got from China during January there would be no pandemic now.

The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn from the unavoidable mistakes that have been made here at the beginning.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 07:43:49 pm
Although EU is closing its borders to curb the spread of the pandemic, Finland and Sweden have emphasized that humanitarian migrants can still cross our borders unhindered, because that's what is most important right now, right?

you're right.. that's nonsense... they will get infected too
This is a serious crisis, you have to evaluate carefully the priorities and act rationally.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 07:54:51 pm
This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!

Anybody who's been a regular reader of New Scientist or similar level-headed board science journals/magazine could have told you that this is a "not of, but when" situation. There have been calls for better emergency preparedness for a pandemic going back to the 1980s when I started reading New Scientist.

the problem is that we have been just too lucky with SARS and MERS, while 2009 swine flue quickly became a mild disease (and some people even pretended that all plans and vaccines were made just to benefit the pharmaceutic industry), while Chinese and Asian in general had learnt from past experiences and made some plans for future outbreak.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 08:03:07 pm
Herd immunity is where some, but not all, individuals in a population are immune to a disease in a way that effectively protects the whole population from that disease. The idea is that enough individuals have active immunity* to a specific disease that should a single individual (who is still susceptible to the disease) catch the disease it won't spread.

While coronavirus is likely to work that way, there are other viruses who are worse and worse once you catch them again (like dengue).

Besides that you can expect the virus to mutate as other human coronaviruses do and affect people each year with usually mild flue-like symptoms. I mean those coronaviruses that have been with us for centuries have not been wiped out by herd immunity.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 08:07:28 pm
Herd immunity is where some, but not all, individuals in a population are immune to a disease in a way that effectively protects the whole population from that disease. The idea is that enough individuals have active immunity* to a specific disease that should a single individual (who is still susceptible to the disease) catch the disease it won't spread.

While coronavirus is likely to work that way, there are other viruses who are worse and worse once you catch them again (like dengue).

Besides that you can expect the virus to mutate as other human coronaviruses do and affect people each year with usually mild flue-like symptoms. I mean those coronaviruses that have been with us for centuries have not been wiped out by herd immunity.
Agreed. I expect that -like the Mexican / swine flu- we'll see the Corona virus return every season. Which IMHO is why a vaccine is so important.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 08:16:54 pm
We're in the wild guessing range so it seems. There is shortage of everything, including test kits. So figures are off. The WHO wants countries to test more so they get their numbers right, but what do you do when there's a limited amount of tests left in the field? They mainly reserve them for hospitalized patients or severe cases. Others with suspect symptoms are told to stay at home and call emergency when its gets really worse, period.

the problem is not (just) the shortage (or cost) of test kits.
It is logistic.
You need trained people (who are already busy with people in the hospitals) with full protective devices to test mr A and then test mr B ensuring you do not transmit the virus from A to B. It takes lots of time and resources. Both of which we lack for sure.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 08:22:16 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 18, 2020, 08:33:06 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??

Generally mentioned parameters:

Without proactive testing, around 25% of infected people get tested - others have mild/no symptoms and don't get tested.

10% of those tested positive require hospitalization (~ 2.5% if testing a large proportion of population)

3.4% of those tested positive die (~ 1% if testing a large proportion of population).

If you want to check these numbers have a look at South Korea, who have been testing the crap out of people: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/) Currently 8,413 cases, and 84 deaths. They have performed more than 4 tests per thousand people. Compared to say the USA's 0.026 tests per thousand. (see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/) )

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: floobydust on March 18, 2020, 08:39:07 pm
Finally some recent research data on the fomites.  SARS-CoV-2 (formerly called HCoV-19) Stability Similar to Original SARS Virus.
New Coronavirus Stable for Hours on Surfaces (https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces)

"... detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel."
Half-life: "... Half-life about 66 minutes for half the virus particles to lose function if they are in an aerosol droplet. That means that after another hour and six minutes (two hours and 12 minutes in total), three-quarters of the virus particles will be essentially inactivated but 25 per cent will still be viable. The amount of viable virus at the end of the third hour will be down to 12.5 per cent, according to the research led by Neeltje van Doremalen of NIAID's Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories.
On stainless steel, it takes five hours 38 minutes for half of the virus particles to become inactive. On plastic, the half-life is six hours 49 minutes, researchers found.
On cardboard, the half-life was about 3.5 hours, but the researchers said there was a lot of variability in those results "so we advise caution" interpreting that number."

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973)
"We found that the stability of SARS-CoV-2 was similar to that of SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental circumstances tested. This indicates that differences in the epidemiologic characteristics of these viruses probably arise from other factors, including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic.3,4  Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events,5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 08:45:35 pm
I think a lot of the wackos are just hoarders, you see the same thing with test equipment.

[Fx: Foghorn Leghorn accent] Now hold, I say, hold on. Ya need to be careful saying things like that around here. It could get real ugly real fast...  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 09:00:57 pm
Finally some recent research data on the fomites.  SARS-CoV-2 (formerly called HCoV-19) Stability Similar to Original SARS Virus.

Long story short: desinfect your hands and what you are touching outside your home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 09:02:54 pm
So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.

Northern Ireland reports 62 cases.  I call bullshit on that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 09:08:05 pm
absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Do you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 18, 2020, 09:09:30 pm
Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days

Does this translate in "we're fucked!", in plain English?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 09:09:37 pm
absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Do you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 09:13:43 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 09:19:42 pm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)
That just confirms what I said?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 09:21:05 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 18, 2020, 09:29:22 pm
The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.


The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn ....
You are wrong. Spain haven't yet learnt any. Spain is giving of stick of blind. Here, when the goverment was been  wroten the measure of the state of emergency. The forth viceminister break the quarantine and wnet to Moncloa for imposing his plan Venezuela: expropriations and nationalizations and banninig the take the competencies of health and security in Catuluña and Pais Vasco. The reunion dured several hours until the economy minister the threatened with her resignation if the plan of 4th Viceminister is aproved. Luckly, the plan of 4 viceminister wasn't aproved.

At this moment, we have several goverment infected with case mild of covid, but this motherfucker released test them.  While the sanitary personal, suspect infected and mild cases are denied constantly.

At Cataluña , the medics , nurses , policeman and prision official have banned to wear MASK. Furthermore , the sons of bitches have a mask factory(Cataluña goverment) with all their production destined to Italy when here lack mask in all hospitals of region.Why don't they increase the production? By phenicians.

Armancio Ortega has offered all his factories and his logistic for manufactoring masks and other medic equipment. What is "Falconetti" waiting for approving?  That the chinese comunity have to donate masks  to Guardia Civil and the National police. That is shameful and sultry.

Spain corrected their wrong when make these stuff:

  1.To fire a Francisco Simon by lied and fail all the pronostics.
  2.To hang by the balls or of pigtail  to Pablo Iglesia ,4th Viceminister for violating the quarantine.
  3.Displacing the UME to Pais Vasco and Cataluña like the rest of Spain .
  4.Take away the Falcon to Falconetty and forming with 2 Viceminister a  coalition goverment with the opposition.
  5.Put to manufacturing  medical items with the army drug factory,  with anothers factories like Amancio Ortega.
 




Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 10:06:21 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

Google search for "corona virus age bracket", first hit:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/)

Quote
The CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.

More than raw numbers, the percent of total cases gives a sense of the risk to different age groups. For instance, just 1.6% to 2.5% of 123 infected people 19 and under were admitted to hospitals; none needed intensive care and none has died.

But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.

In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.

So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 10:24:28 pm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)
That just confirms what I said?

I wasn't countering either of your points of view, just had that reference to hand in another browser tab.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 10:30:52 pm
So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.

No.  Chances are you won't be.  You have less probability of being hospitalized than not being.

That does not fit with the qualifier "Chances are."

Chances are you won't.... though you still could.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 10:35:43 pm
So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.
People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub  :palm:  :palm:
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 10:38:21 pm
So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.

No.  Chances are you won't be.  You have less probability of being hospitalized than not being.

That does not fit with the qualifier "Chances are."

Chances are you won't.... though you still could.

Well, yes. I'm no native speaker and Germans don't have an equal affinity to betting as you Brits do ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:03:08 pm
So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.
People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub  :palm:  :palm:
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

In physics every action has an equal but opposite reaction. In society I think a similar thing happens, some people over-react to extreme levels of caution, leading other people to over-react to equally extreme levels of carlessness.

It's unfortunate that it has been so binary, rather than everyone just taking sensible steps like washing hands often and properly, staying home if they are sick or have been exposed to someone who is sick and just generally trying to avoid spreading infectious disease. I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 11:04:56 pm
I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

At that point you've got two choices:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:06:25 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:10:07 pm
People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub  :palm:  :palm:
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

That was the less smart part of the Belgians. Most people got it more or less. But as always, the stupid part makes headlines.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:13:23 pm
Nobody really needs 10 guns .............
If it's a pursuit you don't partake in you can be excused for thinking such however for those that do and partake in the many sporting disciplines 10 might not be enough.
Like screwdrivers, you need a different one for each job.

It was just a number I pulled out of the air for the sake of illustration. I don't care how many of whatever object somebody has, the more important point is that one is not required to justify a need in order to own something, and when one is interested in something they tend to accumulate items related to that interest, usually more of said items than they truly need, and there's nothing wrong with that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:14:12 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 11:16:27 pm
Google search for "corona virus age bracket", first hit:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/)

Quote
The CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.

More than raw numbers, the percent of total cases gives a sense of the risk to different age groups. For instance, just 1.6% to 2.5% of 123 infected people 19 and under were admitted to hospitals; none needed intensive care and none has died.

But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.

In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.

So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.
I guess you could argue about definitions but I'd qualify that as a rather small percentage, especially as the reported patients are likely the tip of a bigger iceberg with people unaware of their infection or just staying at home for a few days. The numbers or stories don't seem to reflect healthy people needing a lot of help. Elderly or people with pre-existing conditions are at risk and tend to need some to a lot of help.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 11:17:26 pm
Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.
Please quote numbers and sources. Gloomy prophecies aren't helpful.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:18:19 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

So far that matches all the official data I've come across too. Children very rarely show more than very mild symptoms, the severity rises with age but even in middle age a majority have nothing more than normal cold/flu-like symptoms. Beyond age 60 the risk of serious complications rises dramatically, although the same is true of the flu.

Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.

"Chances are" implies a majority. If 70% of infections resulted in hospitalization then I'd consider it reasonable to say that "chances are you will end up in the hospital if you are infected" but in reality "chances are" you will recover without complications regardless of your age group if you are in reasonable overall health. That doesn't mean it is guaranteed or that there is not a very real risk but a substantial majority are recovering on their own.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 18, 2020, 11:22:28 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.

Pre-existing conditions (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/) add percentages. Many of the 30-50 age "healthy" persons (especially in Europe and US) posses some of them, without knowing about it..



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 11:23:13 pm
No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.
I disagree. The regular flu costs many lives every year and that's despite it being both heavily monitored and fought with extensive flu shot programs. I don't think people understand the effort that goes into keeping the flu manageable. Yet that too is something most healthy people shrug off or sit out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:29:11 pm
No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.
I disagree. The regular flu costs many lives every year and that's despite it being both heavily monitored and fought with extensive flu shot programs. I don't think people understand the effort that goes into keeping the flu manageable. Yet that too is something most healthy people shrug off or sit out.

The flue kills between 10,000 and 20,000 people every year in the USA. That's around 30-60 people every day, some of them quite young, when I was a kid one of my little brother's friends died of the flu when he was 8 or 9. Jim Henson died of the flu when he was 53. The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 11:47:48 pm
Below is an article about the risk the virus poses to various age groups and how that compares to the flu. It confirms that while younger people do get gravely ill that indeed is the exception. The group of people younger than 40 y/o dying is very small and may have had pre-existing conditions.

"There will be, as we’ve seen in influenza, an occasional person, who’s young and healthy, who winds up getting COVID-19, seriously ill and dies,” Fauci said in an interview with Dr. Howard Bauchner, the editor of JAMA. “But if you look at the weight of the data, the risk group is very, very clear."

"People 60 and older accounted for more than 80% of the deaths in China, according to a major study in the Journal of the American Medical Assn.

"Indeed, in the 2018-19 flu season, 2,450 people between the ages of 18 and 49 died in the United States, according to the CDC. The mortality rate from the flu is lower than from COVID-19, but far more people caught the flu last season — more than 35 million — than have gotten COVID-19 so far this year."


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19-risk-healthy-young-person (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19-risk-healthy-young-person)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 18, 2020, 11:52:32 pm
Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.

If had a dime every time I have read this bullshit, Jeff Bezos would be my butler.

I mean, of all places, this is a forum for electronics-oriented folks.
Have you ever seen the characteristic of a diode?
What you are seeing now with Covid-19 is the part close to the axis, before the knee.
The number you mention about the flu is the maximum allowed current.

But mortality when all people have access to hospitalization and ICU when needed is the least of the problems.
The real problem is the 20% that will require hospitalization when there will be no more place for them.

If the curve is not flattened, this will make the mortality skyrocket.
Think magic smoke escaping from a diode.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 12:02:43 am
If had a dime every time I have read this bullshit, Jeff Bezos would be my butler.

I mean, of all places, this is a forum for electronics-oriented folks.
Have you ever seen the characteristic of a diode?
What you are seeing now with Covid-19 is the part close to the axis, before the knee.
The number you mention about the flu is the maximum allowed current.

But mortality when all people have access to hospitalization and ICU when needed is the least of the problems.
The real problem is the 20% that will require hospitalization when there will be no more place for them.

If the curve is not flattened, this will make the mortality skyrocket.
Think magic smoke escaping from a diode.
Please be civil. What you say doesn't necessarily contradict what james_s posted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 12:03:37 am
Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.

If had a dime every time I have read this bullshit, Jeff Bezos would be my butler.

I mean, of all places, this is a forum for electronics-oriented folks.
Have you ever seen the characteristic of a diode?
What you are seeing now with Covid-19 is the part close to the axis, before the knee.
The number you mention about the flu is the maximum allowed current.

But mortality when all people have access to hospitalization and ICU when needed is the least of the problems.
The real problem is the 20% that will require hospitalization when there will be no more place for them.

If the curve is not flattened, this will make the mortality skyrocket.
Think magic smoke escaping from a diode.

Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

And why are people in such a panic about Covid? Most of us will get it at some point, most of us will survive, a few will not, mostly the old and/or weak, mother nature is a cruel mistress.

My point is not that Covid is harmless, it's that the flu is dangerous and that we should be responding rationally to both, not panicking, hoarding toilet paper and filling the airwaves with heavily sensationalized news that stirs up fear and panic. The fallout from the panic is going to kill many more people than the virus. Overreacting with fear also pushes others to blow off the danger as BS and overreact with carelessness. We should be careful, we should take steps, but we should also remain calm, not panic and carefully weigh the impacts of our reaction on society and consider the cost in life and everything else of some of the actions we are taking. If the economy collapses and we face massive unemployment large numbers of people will die due to lack of healthcare, food, shelter and other essentials.

My view is similar to aviation. When you are flying a plane and something goes wrong, the #1 priority *always* is FLY THE PLANE. Then manage any other available resources to try to solve the problem and get out of trouble, but if you panic and crash because you are so focused on reacting to the problem that you forgot your most basic priority then the rest is moot. In our case our main priority needs to be to keep society going, keep people employed, keep the world running because if that all comes crashing down we won't have the luxury to worry about some people getting sick.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 19, 2020, 12:08:10 am
Some interesting reading on numbers:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 12:10:10 am
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 12:11:32 am
Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.
Please quote numbers and sources. Gloomy prophecies aren't helpful.

Figures being used by the Imperial College group for their modelling.

Age groupPercentage of symptomatic cases that will require hospitalizationPercentage of those hospitalized that will require ICUInfection Fatality RatioPopulation by age group (UK mid 2019)
0-9     0.10%   5.00%   0.002%   8,052,552
10-19 0.30%   5.00%   0.006%   7,528,144
20-29 1.20%   5.00%   0.03%   8,711,750
30-39 3.20%   5.00%   0.08%   8,835,591
40-49 4.90%   6.30%   0.15%   8,500,792
50-59 10.20%   12.20%   0.60%   8,968,055
60-69 16.60%   27.40%   2.20%   7,069,544
70-79 24.30%   43.20%   5.10%   5,487,167
80+     27.30%   70.90%   9.30%   3,281,955
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 19, 2020, 12:19:39 am
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.

How about doing some electronics?  :D

I've been experimenting with exporting waveforms sampled by an oscilloscope, and using them as input to an LTSpice simulation.  Works surprisingly well!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 12:21:21 am
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 12:24:10 am

Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?


10 thousand are nothing compared to the damage Covid-19 can cause.
You are comparing the maximum current of a small signal diode with the maximum current of a power diode.

Quote
And why are people in such a panic about Covid? Most of us will get it at some point, most of us will survive, a few will not, mostly the old and/or weak, mother nature is a cruel mistress.

It's not panic, it's awareness of the risks necessary to mitigate the deadly outcome.
Do the math, and compute after how many days your country will run out of hospital beds.
The flu is a joke in comparison.
And yes, the flu is scaringly deadly. But by comparison this is far worse.

I mean, have any of you guys seen what is happening in Italy? The hospital overwhelmed? The cemeteries overwhelmed? Do you think it's even slightly comparable to the flu?
People who think it's not that different from the flu is the cause of the unnecessary spread. And that unnecessary spread is the cause of the hospitals being overwhelmed.
And that leads to unnecessary deaths.

And the problem is that I called bullshit a bullshit?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ)

It's like watching frogs being slowly boiled.




Hey Dave, it's still too soon for that image?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 12:26:43 am
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?
Covid19 is likely to kill a lot more. First because of the higher mortality rate and secondly due to the severeness of the symptoms. Look at the UK numbers Cerebus posted. Likely none of the people over 50 will have an ICU bed available and will die if they need one. Do the math. In these age groups alone and you are getting into the hundreds of thousands of people easely. And nobody is lax about flu. Older people tend to get flu shots which do help.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 19, 2020, 12:45:53 am
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 01:03:33 am
Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.

Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).

So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:10:40 am
Covid19 is likely to kill a lot more. First because of the higher mortality rate and secondly due to the severeness of the symptoms. Look at the UK numbers Cerebus posted. Likely none of the people over 50 will have an ICU bed available and will die if they need one. Do the math. In these age groups alone and you are getting into the hundreds of thousands of people easely. And nobody is lax about flu. Older people tend to get flu shots which do help.
The UK numbers are estimates and projections, not actual numbers. The issue is we don't have great numbers right now so we need to do some worst case guesstimating.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:13:57 am
Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.

Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).

So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.
The article posted a few posts up details how we don't have reliable numbers and the ones we do have are likely skewed. It's still a situation we need to take seriously.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 01:15:36 am
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.

As opposed, obviously, to your valued, reasoned, contributions so far:

The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts".
India has found a cure for Covid !

https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/ (https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/)

and so on. If you believe your own advice to be good, perhaps you might take it yourself?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:22:37 am
10 thousand are nothing compared to the damage Covid-19 can cause.
You are comparing the maximum current of a small signal diode with the maximum current of a power diode.

It's not panic, it's awareness of the risks necessary to mitigate the deadly outcome.
Do the math, and compute after how many days your country will run out of hospital beds.
The flu is a joke in comparison.
And yes, the flu is scaringly deadly. But by comparison this is far worse.

I mean, have any of you guys seen what is happening in Italy? The hospital overwhelmed? The cemeteries overwhelmed? Do you think it's even slightly comparable to the flu?
People who think it's not that different from the flu is the cause of the unnecessary spread. And that unnecessary spread is the cause of the hospitals being overwhelmed.
And that leads to unnecessary deaths.

And the problem is that I called bullshit a bullshit?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ)

It's like watching frogs being slowly boiled.


Hey Dave, it's still too soon for that image?
Calm down. Remember to breathe. Frenzied posting about how Italy is burning down isn't helping anyone, especially when you consistently omit to post numbers and sources. Less emotions and more facts. You also may want to read the article posted before.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:28:43 am
How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.
Yes, please.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 02:09:45 am
Calm down. Remember to breathe. Frenzied posting about how Italy is burning down isn't helping anyone, especially when you consistently omit to post numbers and sources.

Numbers? Sources?
Do you really believe this is made up?
The numbers in Italy come from the institutions there, namely the "Protezione Civile". You can read them on any 'Coronavirus counter', for example the one run by Johns Hopkins University. They match.
The "Eco di Bergamo" newspaper had ten pages of obituaries, when usually there is only one.
Does this tell you something about how silly is it to talk about the incidence of the number of tests on the CFR?
If the mortality was 10, 20 or 60 times less then EDIT: the current CFR and hence comparable to EDIT the flu you would not see that many deaths.
All the hospitals of Lombardy are running out of ICUs. And several dozens patients had already been offloaded to other regions.

Quote
Less emotions and more facts. You also may want to read the article posted before.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)

Oh, I have read it. And I have already seen this before . There is always the odd virologist or odd epidemiologist who makes this kind of predictions. There were one or two in Italy as well, now they have retracted or are nowhere to be found. And they were considered highly esteemed professionals in their field.

Probably excellent doctors, a bit weak in math.
Have you read the comments? Someone there is asking where did he pull that number from.

Do you think you are original?
I've seen this going on in Italy, in Spain, in France, in UK and now in the US. It is almost unbelievable how similar the patter is, despite all the cultural differences.

The really sad part is that I do not need to convince you.
You will see for yourself.

Then, when you will try to warn people from other countries that this is not a statistical artifact, they will probably tell you "calm down, breathe". I hope you won't find the latter difficult.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 02:21:54 am
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 02:28:30 am
Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.

Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).

So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.


What I think is that it is virtually irrelevant because we're so focused on reacting to the crisis that nobody is flying the plane and it's going to crash, making the rest of the issue moot. If the whole system comes crashing down people are going to be dying of all sorts of stuff because they won't have access to medical care. The number one priority HAS to be to keep the world running because everything else fully depends on that. Do you think Covid is just going to go away after a few weeks? What do we do when it pops up again? Do we shut everything down indefinitely until we're all unemployed and homeless?


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 19, 2020, 02:52:01 am
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:05:56 am
Numbers? Sources?
Do you really believe this is made up?
The numbers in Italy come from the institutions there, namely the "Protezione Civile". You can read them on any 'Coronavirus counter', for example the one run by Johns Hopkins University. They match.
The "Eco di Bergamo" newspaper had ten pages of obituaries, when usually there is only one.
Does this tell you something about how silly is it to talk about the incidence of the number of tests on the CFR?
If the mortality was 10, 20 or 60 times less then EDIT: the current CFR and hence comparable to EDIT the flu you would not see that many deaths.
All the hospitals of Lombardy are running out of ICUs. And several dozens patients had already been offloaded to other regions.

Oh, I have read it. And I have already seen this before . There is always the odd virologist or odd epidemiologist who makes this kind of predictions. There were one or two in Italy as well, now they have retracted or are nowhere to be found. And they were considered highly esteemed professionals in their field.

Probably excellent doctors, a bit weak in math.
Have you read the comments? Someone there is asking where did he pull that number from.

Do you think you are original?
I've seen this going on in Italy, in Spain, in France, in UK and now in the US. It is almost unbelievable how similar the patter is, despite all the cultural differences.

The really sad part is that I do not need to convince you.
You will see for yourself.

Then, when you will try to warn people from other countries that this is not a statistical artifact, they will probably tell you "calm down, breathe". I hope you won't find the latter difficult.
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language yet do far have posted nothing more substantial than some casual US news coverage. I don't think there's much discussion to be had about that. Without a tangible understanding of what's going on we're definitely going under so we need to look, see and act.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 03:12:34 am
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.

For what it's worth the figures came from here Where to Get Free or the Cheapest Flu Shots (updated 2020) (https://20somethingfinance.com/where-to-get-cheap-or-free-flu-shots/) but the exact cost is irrelevant as I was taking issue with the "too lazy" or "too crazy" characterisation being made about people from the US by someone from the US when, as we all know, with high American health costs, access to vaccination can be a problem for some people. Just seemed unfair to that class of people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:14:53 am
Although it's a mainstream media piece the article linked gives some insights into why it could be that Italy is hit harder than South Korea.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 03:19:18 am
Well the number of people I personally know who don't bother or actively refuse to get vaccinated suggests it is a very real problem. A good friend of mine with a 6 figure income and excellent health insurance has never had a flu shot because he insists it's all some kind of money grabbing conspiracy to make him sick. I've given up on discussing such things with him because I value our friendship over being right but his mindset is not rare.

The broader anti-vax movement has led to a resurgence of measles and other formerly nearly eradicated diseases and you can bet that if a Covid vaccine is developed there will be many thousands of people who refuse to get it or blow it off as an unnecessary waste of effort.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 19, 2020, 03:23:08 am
Some things are normal. Indian scam merchants from the Microsoft Technical Help Department are still calling Australians daily in an attempt to commit fraud. Too bad we cannot kill these scammers with a virus.

With all the cash splashing going on over this virus, there will be scammers bleeding the system for all it is worth. Most governments cannot engineer a process quickly that is not full of holes. Most governments are reactive, no proactive. I can see scams, fiascoes and debacles on the horizon. This time it is going to be worse than the GFC cash splash, because the sums are bigger and the governments won't see the problems they have created before it is too late.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 03:27:27 am
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language

Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 19, 2020, 03:30:03 am
Some things are normal. Indian scam merchants from the Microsoft Technical Help Department are still calling Australians daily in an attempt to commit fraud. Too bad we cannot kill these scammers with a virus.

With all the cash splashing going on over this virus, there will be scammers bleeding the system for all it is worth. Most governments cannot engineer a process quickly that is not full of holes. Most governments are reactive, no proactive. I can see scams, fiascoes and debacles on the horizon. This time it is going to be worse than the GFC cash splash, because the sums are bigger and the governments won't see the problems they have created before it is too late.
With many stuck at home, wouldn't it be a good use of time to feed the scammers junk data to waste their time?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:48:59 am
Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.
Considering you flat out refuse to post anything else than "see for yourself" I can't help but conclude you don't actually know what's going on. I understand that the changes and incessant torrents of news are scary. Looking carefully at what we actually know can make it less scary.

Admittedly the idea of yelling there's a fire and subsequently refusing to comment on what's on fire and where is amusing because of how absurd it is.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 03:53:33 am
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language

Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.

You're not informing someone that their house is on fire, you're running around in circles screaming that the sky is falling and accusing anyone who refuses to get caught up in your panic of thinking there's no problem at all.

What precisely are you advocating beyond that everyone should be afraid? How long should we keep everything shut down? What is an acceptable number of people to force out of their livelihood depriving them of food, shelter and medicine in order to try to slow the spread? What do we do if this is still going around 6 months from now or when it flares up again while we are still reeling from the impact of the initial panic?

This reminds me too much of my partner's mother. She is absolutely useless in an emergency, she panics and freezes up, becomes completely incapable of acting in any useful way and makes whatever situation much worse by getting in the way and distracting everyone else into dealing with her instead of doing something useful. Panic is never helpful, it fixes nothing, it stirs everybody up into a helpless frenzy and prevents rational thought. Panic is going to make a bad situation far, far more dire.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 19, 2020, 06:10:10 am

They leave to die.

https://youtu.be/7z-_v1H23Qo (https://youtu.be/7z-_v1H23Qo)

Brief trancription.

We have order of our superiors.To  leave to die  elder people because we haven't sufficient respirators. But after in TV, they said that have to protect elder people(Hospital "Puerta de Hierro",Madrid 18/03/2020)


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bsfeechannel on March 19, 2020, 06:34:14 am
How long should we keep everything shut down?

Long enough not to overcrowd the ICUs.

Quote
What is an acceptable number of people to force out of their livelihood depriving them of food, shelter and medicine in order to try to slow the spread?

Shut the eff down. Don't waste your time discussing.

Quote
Panic is going to make a bad situation far, far more dire.

The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.97%, while in Italy is 7.94%. It seems that "panicking" is the right approach.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 19, 2020, 06:59:15 am
If you, dear foreigner, want to visit Australia soon you now have no hope according to this boofhead...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/coronavirus-non-resident-travel-ban-australia/12071640 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/coronavirus-non-resident-travel-ban-australia/12071640)

The Australian govt is in now panic mode. Ad-hoc announcements and no planning.  The Home Affairs website is overloaded. This shock announcement means Chinese students who are not residents won't be coming here to return to their studies in the foreseeable future. People with visas to get married within a certain time frame may never be allowed in this country and they won't get their $6K visa fees back (I know someone in that predicament). It is illegal to congregate with more than 100 people in this state, and yet the huge casino is exempt.

It is a complete debacle.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 07:22:42 am
mr Erdogan has found a new weapon
Turkey is one of the main manufacturers of respiratory protective devices in the world, they can produce millions of pieces per day, but are blocking exports even if they currently have no need for them.
Hungary instead is just seizing those devices in transit.

Here is the newspaper article (translated via google) (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fdataroom-milena-gabanelli%2F20_marzo_19%2Fcoronavirus-200-mila-mascherine-gli-ospedali-italiani-bloccate-ad-ankara-15-giorni-2b0ea5be-695d-11ea-913c-55c2df06d574.shtml)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: imo on March 19, 2020, 07:38:41 am
Wuhan reports 0 new cases today.
They have new cases coming from abroad, however..

Reuters: (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/beijing-hit-by-record-imported-coronavirus-cases-zero-china-transmissions-idUSKBN216085)
Quote
Beijing saw a record number of imported coronavirus cases, data released on Thursday showed, as new local transmissions in China fell to zero, putting more pressure on the capital to screen out infected passengers and isolate suspected cases.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: blueskull on March 19, 2020, 08:29:20 am
Coming from a govt agency, it is estimated that 6300 deaths can be attributed to flu in the 2018-2019 period in Spain. Covid toll seems above 600 now.

A normal flu doesn't erupt in this shape of curve. And this virus has managed to kill in 2 weeks 1/10 what a normal flu will kill in 52 weeks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 19, 2020, 08:30:46 am
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

So I'm looking at it from the outside.  Tell me the above isn't true... for the majority and definitely those in lower paid jobs with no medical insurance.

What are the "deaths from flu" per capita of the US compared to the rest of the western world?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 19, 2020, 08:36:27 am
Coming from a govt agency, it is estimated that 6300 deaths can be attributed to flu in the 2018-2019 period in Spain. Covid toll seems above 600 now.

A normal flu doesn't erupt in this shape of curve. And this virus has managed to kill in 2 weeks 1/10 what a normal flu will kill in 52 weeks.

How this is going to go is...
But the flu kills 10 times what Covid19 does!
...
But the flu kills 5 times what Covid19 does!
But the flu kills twice what Covid19 does!
But the flu kills the same number as Covid19 does!
...

Oh.  Sorry.

But covid19 killed 10 times what flu did this year.



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 19, 2020, 08:40:21 am
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

So I'm looking at it from the outside.  Tell me the above isn't true... for the majority and definitely those in lower paid jobs with no medical insurance.

What are the "deaths from flu" per capita of the US compared to the rest of the western world?

https://championtraveler.com/news/the-us-flu-season-is-bad-this-year-but-influenza-is-still-way-more-deadly-around-the-world/

It's likely fewer people would die of the flu if they took it more seriously. I really don't think it's a matter of cost. Literally anyone can go to an ER and be treated regardless of insurance or even an ID.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 19, 2020, 09:02:51 am

How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.
Yes, please.

What's there to say when it's getting pretty obvious by now, even to the idiot hoarders  :palm:  what's going on   :popcorn:

The lack of dunny paper is what assholes want to say, they have Rights too  ;D

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SerieZ on March 19, 2020, 09:11:02 am
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare.  :palm:

The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
 |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 19, 2020, 10:42:03 am
The flue kills between 10,000 and 20,000 people every year in the USA. That's around 30-60 people every day, some of them quite young, when I was a kid one of my little brother's friends died of the flu when he was 8 or 9. Jim Henson died of the flu when he was 53. The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.

It does, but there seems to be a very real difference here. Above all the infection speed and long incubation period combo, which is taking all health care services worldwide by surprise. When this will be over, notwithstanding all measures taken, mortality rate will likely be a multiple higher than flu. By now it is clear older people are very much at risk, but younger people make it rapidly to the ER departments as well, which doesn't say anything about their survival rate or their quality of recovery. Do you find it reassuring you have a high chance of survival given your age, but you may end up in the intensive care? Not something to look forward to. Especially if there is a risk all beds all full! It could be that one year from now, figures will be similar to flu figures even though I'd expect it to be multiples, eventually. But for now it is very clear the best one can classify this would be "a very aggressive flu on steroids". Just the speed aspect of it, ignoring all other unknowns for now, is a threat to public health.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 10:59:50 am
Are you sure?
There is a HUGE spike in deaths in every country in december/january. Take this data from the UK for example

1) You're quoting "all causes" mortality - UK health statistics are good enough that you can actually find not just Influenza deaths, but cases by diagnosed Influenza serotype. (Official Statistics: Weekly national flu reports: 2019 to 2020 season (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season))
2) Your HUGE spike in all causes mortality is, in fact, a moderate bump - with winter peak mortality is, at 1600 a day in January versus 1200 a day in July, a mere 10% higher than the annualised average death rate and only 20% more than the minimum rate. Presumably if asked whether you wanted a 'normal' size meal or a 'HUGE' size meal you wouldn't be disappointed when your 'HUGE' meal only turned out to be a mere 10% bigger?

Quote
In January dayly deaths are more than 400 the normal, this is 12000 more in one month Take that for an increase in the curve.

Since when did the minimum become "the normal"?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on March 19, 2020, 11:18:49 am
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare.  :palm:

The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
 |O

You are confusing paid medical leave ( I was home for a week and still got paid ) with medical bills.

How about bad migraine, you take an over the counter pain killer, you have weird sensation, you call ambulance, they take you to hospital, doctor looks at you for a minute, gives you one injection, and after half an hour your're ok and you go home. A week later you get bill from a hospital for 6500 USD for "services rendered".
I had medical, so they sorted that out.  That is how it was around 1999-2000 in USA. And medical didn't mean dental. You had to get that insurance extra, so you don't have to pay few hundred USD for a minor repair on a tooth.
I don't know how Obamacare works now, but it used to be, basically, you die or pay. Or they treat you and than you go bankrupt.



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 19, 2020, 12:10:26 pm
A friend who is trying to get his fiancee here from China for the past 3 years has had to fork out $40,000 so far due to the Australian government incompetence and this corona virus. That is another story in itself. My friend recently contacted senior immigration officials and they don't even know what is going on. Apparently the government immigration androids have just cancelled 30 partner visas (including my friend's) due to government bureaucratic incompetence and total lack of empathy. None of the partners had the virus and all were in quarantine elsewhere. Therefore, the victims have to go through the whole :bullshit: process again in getting a visa which will take another few years, and no doubt have to hand over another $6K for another application fee - and that is after the sanctions are lifted. It is shameful the way my friend and his partner have been treated by the Australian federal government.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 19, 2020, 12:15:06 pm
Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.

At first I thought this is all crazy and the world has gone mad, but now I think this might be all necessary. We don't know as much about covid, as we do about common flu. It seems to have a higher death rate and is just as contagious. I'm not worried about my own health, because I'm sure I'll survive it, but my parent's are in their 70s. My mum, has had two stokes in the past, is in recovery from surgery on a brain haemorrhage and my day has asthma and a colostomy bag, so it could be very serious for them. Another issue is this could affect the following generation. Children born to mothers with Spanish flu or who caught it when they were very young tended to do poorer in school. We don't want to risk have increased levels of learning disability in the future, so it's better to be overcautious, than do nothing at all.

I think culture and upbringing could also be factors. I'm currently off work because I have a cough, which normally wouldn't bother me. I've been told throughout my life not to be a wimp and call in sick because I'm mildly unwell.