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General => General Technical Chat => Topic started by: cleanworkbench on February 21, 2020, 07:28:53 pm

Title: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 21, 2020, 07:28:53 pm
Just had a thought , do you think the labs are using scanning electron microscopes to take a tour inside the  virus as virtual reality and tinker with it to view an outcome in real time ie accelerated graphics , i,m no expert but anyone reckon its feasible . 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: janoc on February 21, 2020, 09:20:23 pm
No.

The labs that are doing the analyses have much better and more important things to do than to tinker with Hollywood style gadgets that wouldn't bring any benefit for their jobs.

Also, the fact that you can view a virus using a microscope and that there is a virtual reality helmet available doesn't mean that can just feed video from a microscope into a VR helmet and expect it to "work". You would get only a blurry low resolution mess that would make you nauseous and you wouldn't see anything more than what you can see on the screen of the microscope already anyway.

If you really wanted to do this, you would need to know how to:

a) Model the behavior of the virus (extremely complex task, notabene when it is something as new as this one where the knowledge is still very limited) so that it can be meaningfully simulated.

b) Make such simulations real-time. They aren't, not even close. We are talking typically hours and days of simulation time, and that is for chemical reactions, not a living system which is order of magnitudes more complex than a simple chemical reaction between molecules. In biology it is faster (and more accurate!) to do it in a petri dish than to simulate, especially when we don't even know how to simulate behaviour of anything of this complexity yet!

c) To develop an VR application that would interface with such simulation. We are talking enormous amounts of data which you can't simply load into a GPU and let the helmet display it. I did a visualization of chemical reactions in Li-ion batteries last year and about million particles (atoms/molecules) was pushing it already.

Even the simplest virus has orders of magnitude larger complexity if you want to simulate effects of e.g. a new drug on it. That would require a lot of very fancy and complex technology  to manage such visualization, not to mention the costs of the hardware to run it on.

E.g. this paper speaks about 6.5 millions of atoms in a capsid (shell) of a polio virus, which has been simulated for 200ns (!) using a supercomputer (only the capsid, without the virus) :
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.5.7117/full/


(develops VR applications for living)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on February 22, 2020, 12:48:21 am
Doing biological simulations is what the Folding@Home project (and cryptocurrency that uses it for mining, as in Curecoin and Foldingcoin) does.
https://foldingforum.org/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=32124
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 22, 2020, 11:46:01 am
Well i learnt something there , very interesting many thanks .  So its down to good old fashion common sense and today,s technology to save us then .
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rerouter on February 22, 2020, 12:15:25 pm
https://boinc.bakerlab.org/rosetta/forum_thread.php?id=13510&postid=91696#91696

There is a lot of computing resources being thrown at the problem, and even then it will not be fast to discover its base structure, let alone then using that to attempt simulating how it interacts with everything, Its more a case of searching for what might be a chink in the armor that could them be used to damage it, or interrupt its replication.

Re the scanning electron mircoscope, viruses are just a bundle of DNA packaged in the shell, if the shell is closed, they look like popcorn chicken, if open, it is usually too well packaged to be able to take a 3D model of the interior structures.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 22, 2020, 08:55:22 pm
It sounds like a very weird world inner space ,lets hope they can crack the code .
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: angrybird on February 24, 2020, 11:08:54 pm
I wish they would put this much work into figuring out why nuthatch are so damn cute and distracting.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on February 25, 2020, 12:22:32 am
You don't do molecular dynamics simulations to find out how to stop viruses from replicating.  You work on the 1) the outer envelope of lipids to see how to get immune systems to recognize and attack the virus particles, 2) on the capsid or shell protecting the genetic information, for the same reason, or 3) on the DNA or RNA strands to find a way to stop the virus from replicating.

None of them are flashy research where one brilliant mind can solve the thing in hours like in movies.
We have a lot of data on how viruses work, but because living cells are so complex and varied, it is extremely hard work to find out how particular strains of a virus work, and how they can be disrupted.  It's much more like trying to find commonalities between the books from a couple of dozen authors, than people trying to think of creative ways to attack it directly.

Vaccines are essentially just ways of teaching immune cells what to track and attack.  Some antiviral treatments only reduce the replication enough for the body to keep up -- it's like the difference between nuclear fission in a reactor keeping it hot (requiring constant medication) and in a nuclear bomb.  Some antiviral treatments stop the replication, so that when the infected cells eventually die, the person is fully cured.

Viruses also mutate constantly.  When two (different!) viruses infect the same cell, they exchange DNA/RNA.  This is why it is extremely scary when a patient with a deadly virus infection gets infected with a more infectitious virus: the new combined one can be both deadly and infectitous.  We should also be more careful about the medication we use, because if you don't kill all of a virus, only most of it (to bring the viral load down to levels the body can manage on its own), the virus variants that survived the medication can spread.  This is exactly how superbugs came to be.

That is also why finding the "root" of the virus is sometimes important: you can find the commonalities before the mutations, so you can target the entire "descendant" set.  As an example, there are four influenza virus variants, three of which cause flu, but vaccination only protects for a year or so, and only for the chosen variant -- but since we don't know which of the three will be the major one next flu season, it's always a bit of a guess work.

For corvid-19, the reports that a person could have been reinfected very soon after recovery are the most alarming, because if so, we really have no hope for developing effective antiviral treatments for it; they all depend on the human immune system to do the heavy work, and if the human immune system doesn't develop any kind of immunity (for at least a couple of months), it means the immune system does not have a reliable way of recognizing the virus, and none of our antiviral treatments have much hope of working at all.

The most important thing here is that corvid-19 is not that special.  We know influenza becomes a worldwide epidemic killing millions about three times a century; and now it looks like coronaviruses can cause similar epidemics.  Corvid-19 is just a bit less infectitious and a bit more deadly.

What we should do, is to not stock food and resources until this epidemic passes, but to try and find ways of combating the spread of these viruses in the first place.  It may mean things like no more flights or public transport when you have a cold/flu/whatever; that wearing gloves becomes the norm for everybody throughout the year (that helps avoid flu already); and that sneezing, coughing, or spitting towards someone becomes bigger faux pas than saying a racial slur.

You see, while this too will pass, there will always be the next, and the next, and so on.  And since humans mix more than ever before, considering the ways viruses share genetic data, at least some of the future ones will be even worse.  This is not the end of the world (because 90% of the people who have gotten infected recover; so even if every human being on this planet were to be infected, 90% would still survive), so no need to panic; but this would be the optimum time to look at how we deal with epidemics and the spread of infectitious diseases as a planet-wide species.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 26, 2020, 08:32:08 pm
So does it matter which part of the planet a human is from as to whether the mutation would be a different type . In simplistic terms someone from China develops covid 19 and as it works its way around the world does it end up as something else but still covid 19 , is this the mutation that they appear to be chasing. ?.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on February 26, 2020, 08:48:05 pm
So does it matter which part of the planet a human is from as to whether the mutation would be a different type.
No, we are all one species in this regard.

There are differences in how human bodies deal with the virus, though.  As an example, people with sickle cell anemia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease) are much less likely to get malaria.  For coronaviruses, I am not aware of any regional differences in immunity or otherwise.  There could be some, we just don't know yet.  If there are any, it is probably related to inherited immunity from previous generations' encounters with the same family of viruses, coronaviruses, and not differences in humans per se.

In simplistic terms someone from China develops covid 19 and as it works its way around the world does it end up as something else but still covid 19 , is this the mutation that they appear to be chasing.
Each virus has its own typical mutation rate.  It does not matter whether it travels around the world, or slowly infects new people in the same region, they just tend to mutate at the same rate.  That is not the issue here.

The risk is that if it is true that the same person can get infected within weeks of recovering from the virus, the mutation rate is such that human immune system can't keep up.  The virus looks completely new to the immune system, so it doesn't recognise it as something it needs to fight/eat.  Fortunately, it now looks that this report was not that, but something like a misdiagnosis in the first place.

Secondary risk is that people with other viruses in their system, more dangerous but less virulent ones like a hemorrhagic fever, get infected.  In those cases, the two viruses may exchange genetic material, with completely new variants being "created" as a result.  It is not common, but it is known to happen.  If this virus came to be without human intervention, this is likely how it developed in some animal (a "mix" of two different coronaviruses, I mean; I've heard of similarities to some coronaviruses endemic/typical in bats and some other species), then jumped to a human being, and started to spread.

For now, the problem in treating covid-19 is that we have no way to tag the virus for the human immune system to detect it early.  It will detect it when you're already sick -- could be two to four weeks after initial infection, and you'll be spreading the virus during all that time.  We have no medicine that can help the body combat the virus; we can just treat the symptoms (pain, kidney failure) and keep the patients hydrated and so on.  If we could describe it to our immune cells -- that's what the flu vaccine does; the body remembers that particular description for a year or so, but as there are three different variants, it's always a bit of a guesswork which one to get/give -- they could attack it immediately, and prevent the virus from getting a foothold.

If the "native change rate", mutation rate, in the virus were so fast that the same person could be reinfected within weeks, there would be about zero hope of finding a way to tag the virus, as it changes faster than we could manufacture the tagging stuff.  Again, it does not look that way, although for a couple of days, I was quite alarmed about that.  (I'm a materials scientist, a physicist, not a doctor, though.)

The reason it is important to keep track of the path of the virus, is that two to four week incubation period.  If we know how the virus is passed on, we can prepare the medical facilities accordingly; basically make better guesses as to where resources are needed.  When "untraceable" infections pop up, it means there are carriers we don't know about, and when they get sick, there could be many of them in the same area; and then it can be very hard to get them help in time.  (Covid-19 seems to be particularly hard to the kidneys in the severe cases; many in intensive care are in dialysis, to reduce the stress on their kidneys.  Otherwise its symptoms are comparable to the flu.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on February 27, 2020, 04:16:57 pm
Interestingly there is none child below 2-3 years of age infected. Why?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on February 27, 2020, 04:23:21 pm
Do you have a statistics from 5days to 3years of age?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: cleanworkbench on February 27, 2020, 06:56:27 pm
Oh well folks thanks for the insight , i just hope there's a very clever and highly skilled team out there in a lab somewhere .
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on February 27, 2020, 07:28:08 pm
Oh well folks thanks for the insight , i just hope there's a very clever and highly skilled team out there in a lab somewhere .
It's actually more like "hope there is enough people working on this and coordinating with each other, because the 'haystack' they need to comb through is so vast".

The haystack being the genetic information in covid-19, and the "needle" being either some way of tagging it for immune system to attack, or a way to weaken the virus from infecting new cells or slowing or stopping the replication.  Lots of possibilities, but only very, very few of them actually work, and all need to be tested to find the ones that do work.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on February 27, 2020, 08:03:22 pm
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases (numbers of the tracking sites are still quite old and vary around 26 but there were 20 new cases recently), thankfully still without any fatality. The number of confirmed influenza cases for this season is around 100k though with 161 fatalities and nobody really cares.
In the influenza season 2017/18, 25k (!) people died (about 0.03% of the population) in Germany and nobody panicked about that. And still lots of people don't even care about influenza vaccination.
So, yes. it's a serious thing, maybe a bit more serious than influenza if it really spreads worldwide but it's not the apocalypse. Just as with influenza, most people that die of it are either old or suffer from a serious pre-existing illness.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on February 27, 2020, 08:09:45 pm
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases (numbers of the tracking sites are still quite old and vary around 26 but there were 20 new cases recently), thankfully still without any fatality. The number of confirmed influenza cases for this season is around 100k though with 161 fatalities and nobody really cares.
In the influenza season 2017/18, 25k (!) people died (about 0.03% of the population) in Germany and nobody panicked about that. And still lots of people don't even care about influenza vaccination.
So, yes. it's a serious thing, maybe a bit more serious than influenza if it really spreads worldwide but it's not the apocalypse. Just as with influenza, most people that die of it are either old or suffer from a serious pre-existing illness.

Also, let's not forget about ~40,000 traffic fatalities each year (USA) that we are completely OK with...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on February 27, 2020, 08:19:45 pm
"One person's death is a tragedy, a million deaths is just a statistic".

I hope it stays purely a statistic for you.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on February 28, 2020, 01:54:03 am
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases


   Germany today is China two months ago.  How is that for perspective?

  The public and the govenments in the US, Europe and the rest of the world should have already realized what is happening in China today is something that we're going to have to deal with in the very near future.

   If you need a reminder of how quickly this can spread and at what the medical and economic effects are just look at Italy or at South Korea over the last two weeks. And this virus is just getting started! 

    Think is this as being December 1917 and the 1918 Spanish flu is just beginning to be noticed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on February 28, 2020, 02:03:53 am
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases (numbers of the tracking sites are still quite old an died (about 0.03% of the population) in Germany and nobody panicked about that. And still lots of people don't even care about influenza vaccination.
Call us when coronavirus Death will knock Your door and let is know if ignorance and denial helped scare her away.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on February 28, 2020, 10:07:24 am
You guys really know how to turn a calm and rational statement into something coldhearted and misanthropic. Please try to read whole sentences or even paragraphs before trying to blame other people of a horrible attitude.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on February 28, 2020, 10:30:01 am
You guys really know how to turn a calm and rational statement into something coldhearted and misanthropic. Please try to read whole sentences or even paragraphs before trying to blame other people of a horrible attitude.

Well, you said "it's nothing to worry about, and anyway mostly old and sick people will die". Neither statements is factual. Since no one has a crystal ball, the rational statement is "we don't know how bad it will get".

If you said "I'm not worried about it", that would be a valid opinion. But you tried to dress it up as "you should not be worried because <made up reasons>". Not rational at all.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on February 28, 2020, 11:30:32 am
Well, you said "it's nothing to worry about, and anyway mostly old and sick people will die". Neither statements is factual. Since no one has a crystal ball, the rational statement is "we don't know how bad it will get".
No, that's not what I said. That's what you decided to read into it. Which says a lot about your perception of yourself and other people but nothing about what you falsely quoted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on February 28, 2020, 01:01:41 pm
Well, you said "it's nothing to worry about, and anyway mostly old and sick people will die". Neither statements is factual. Since no one has a crystal ball, the rational statement is "we don't know how bad it will get".
No, that's not what I said. That's what you decided to read into it. Which says a lot about your perception of yourself and other people but nothing about what you falsely quoted.

If you really think that is not what you said, you really need to be a lot more careful about how you write things. But no need to get your panties in a bunch, it's not the apocalypse, right?

Anyway, at least you agree it is something serious which needs people's attention, and will affect people of all ages.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on February 28, 2020, 03:57:56 pm
If you really think that is not what you said, you really need to be a lot more careful about how you write things.
Well, I simply didn't say would you apparently like to think I did. After all you felt the need to forge the quote just to be sure. It's quite obvious how you interpreted the worst by reading only a part here and a part there and filling the gaps with your worst expectations. It's probably easy to feel righteous and be angry about others at the same time with this approach. Not my cup of tea though, so please don't put words in my mouth.

But no need to get your panties in a bunch, it's not the apocalypse, right?
Sorry, I kinda mistook this for a serious discussion. Guess I was wrong. So I'm outta here and leave this to the prophets of the apocalypse.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on February 28, 2020, 06:57:07 pm
For what it is worth (less than two cents, really), here's my opinion:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 1Ghz on February 29, 2020, 10:03:55 am
South Korea records its biggest daily jump in infections https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html)

It's getting worse day by day. :(
Total infections is now 3000+!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on February 29, 2020, 01:38:26 pm
  Yeap, and the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days. And France has jumped from 38 to 57. That's a 50% increase in the last two days! Anyone that understands anything about geometric progression knows where this is leading. Japan who has been treating this very serious for weeks now has had 20 new cases in the last 24 hours.  And China is still getting something like 500 new cases everyday, for weeks nows.

   The US has added at least three possibly four new cases and they're had very tight travel restrictions, quarantining and monitoring in place for weeks. The reports says that there are only THREE new cases in the US but the total was 54 for over a week and now it's 63 so somewhere, they also snuck in 6 more cases in addition to the three reported ones.

   The CDC tried to move a bunch of infected patients from Travis AFB to a city in California with the  city's knowledge or consent, claiming that they needed more room, but the city got wind of it and has filed a federal lawsuit to block the move. The US also has at least twenty known quarantine sites, which seems like a lot for only for only 63 people!  Obviously they're expecting this to get much worse before it gets better.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on February 29, 2020, 02:12:46 pm
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???
This is not a fucking GAME!!  It has now crossed the lines to being a PANDEMIC.
There is NOTHING 'racist' about protecting one's country-folk.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on February 29, 2020, 02:40:31 pm
Sorry, I kinda mistook this for a serious discussion. Guess I was wrong. So I'm outta here and leave this to the prophets of the apocalypse.

Well, thanks for being "calm and rational"  :-DD

Some genuinely calm and rational commentary :  Is Coronavirus ‘Like a Strong Flu’?  (https://www.polygraph.info/a/coronavirus-vs-flu-fact-check/30458388.html)  (Rated: "misleading").

The article doesn't have soundbite conclusions, and is worth reading in full. Some excerpts:

Quote
But in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.

“There is a lot of panic at the moment that is really not warranted,” he said. “If you think about the fundamental health impacts, they are significant but it is not like we have a real pandemic. It’s like a strong flu.”

Quote
Indeed, as coronavirus cases continue to emerge globally, scientists are urgently studying its characteristics, but it may be too soon to draw conclusions about fatality rates, transmission and who is most vulnerable to infection or complications.

“There are so many huge unknowns about this outbreak,” said Professor Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University told The Guardian this month. “For example, we don’t know just how infectious people are before they show symptoms. That makes it impossible to predict what is going to happen.”

“The trouble is, this outbreak is caused by a very different virus. And unlike flu, there are no vaccines or treatments and, crucially, no pre-existing immunity in the population.”

All quotes 100% genuine  :-+


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on February 29, 2020, 04:49:05 pm
Nature is doing what it's doing best. 
And humans are not, necessarily, a guaranteed part of its long term plan, whatever we think.

It's definitely spreading in a predictable way, however everybody seems to be surprised that it does...

We can get over this but it needs everybody to put some efforts in.

Stay safe, sane, and civil, guys. 

Leo
It's getting worse day by day. :(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 01, 2020, 06:59:47 pm
Speaking of "nature"...

https://www.latestly.com/world/nasa-and-european-space-agency-satellites-show-chinas-pollution-levels-have-dropped-amid-coronavirus-shutdown-1569986.html (https://www.latestly.com/world/nasa-and-european-space-agency-satellites-show-chinas-pollution-levels-have-dropped-amid-coronavirus-shutdown-1569986.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 01, 2020, 07:38:36 pm
Quote
But in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.
When it comes to dealing with  a risk of  a pandemic, a CEO of some "financial services company" will be the last person i am going to listen to.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 01, 2020, 07:47:29 pm
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???
This is not a fucking GAME!!  It has now crossed the lines to being a PANDEMIC.
There is NOTHING 'racist' about protecting one's country-folk.
I am sure the Chinese Government loves the Canadian Government who says "when you see a Chinese person, shake their hand". Can you imagine a more moronic advice from a country's health official ?  When i heard that on the radio i did not know if to laugh or to cry.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on March 01, 2020, 08:35:36 pm
I think most humans are too stupid to work this out, until a pandemic that actually kills a major fraction of humans on this planet comes along.  We just do not seem to be able to look at history, see what actions lead to, and avoid those disastrous actions.
Not too stupid to work it out, just unwilling to significantly alter their daily life for a very remote possibility, like with everything else. Only immediate threat causes people to change, it's just human nature. Not just human actually, other animals do the same.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 01, 2020, 10:33:17 pm
Quote
But in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.
When it comes to dealing with  a risk of  a pandemic, a CEO of some "financial services company" will be the last person i am going to listen to.

Quote the whole thing : "Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz"

Then use Google : "Allianz SE is a European multinational financial services company headquartered in Munich, Germany. Its core businesses are insurance and asset management.  As of 2014, it is the world's largest insurance company". I know you all can sometimes be a bit parochial in the Great White North but I'd be a little surprised if the name of the World's largest insurer (that's been around since 1890) isn't common knowledge there.

Insurers know a thing or two about risk. The world's largest insurance company probably has quite a bit riding on the outcome of a possible pandemic. Ergo, their CEO is likely to be one of the best informed people in the world at the moment about the realistic risks this poses. Even if he is only worried about his bottom line, his information is quite likely to be the best and most comprehensive available.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 01, 2020, 11:32:28 pm
    When was the last time that a financial services company gave medical advice???  NEVER! 

     Companies like Alianz have a lot more at stake than just life insurance payouts and they're probably a lot more concerned about the loss of business to the entertainment parks, cruise lines and air lines, manufacturing companies and import and export companies and the like so, just considering their possible conflict of interest alone, I shouldn't won't trust their advice. In addition to having other possible interests, they are NOT in the medical profession so why in the hell would you even consider taking their advice??? 

   Just because they know something about risks, doesn't mean that they're going to tell you the truth. They're going to tell you what they think will save them money in the long run.

   One of the first rules of life that everyone should know: Consider the source! (and what's in it for them.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 01, 2020, 11:38:30 pm
  Yeap, and the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days. And France has jumped from 38 to 57. That's a 50% increase in the last two days! Anyone that understands anything about geometric progression knows where this is leading. Japan who has been treating this very serious for weeks now has had 20 new cases in the last 24 hours.  And China is still getting something like 500 new cases everyday, for weeks nows.

It's exactly that kind of thinking that leads people to panic rather than approach this rationally.

Firstly saying "the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days." as if that "22+%" means anything. That's the kind of percentage used by red top newspaper subeditors to make something out of nothing. Even the use of the emotive "jumped" instead of 'increased' or some other less loaded word is straight out of the same playbook. Why not go the whole hog and say 'soared'.

It sounds a lot less apocalyptic if you use a proper epidemiological basis and note that "the infection rate in Germany has risen from 0.059 people per 100,000 to 0.072 people per 100,000 in two days, an increase of 0.01 per 100,000 in two days". Eleven extra infections out of 83 million people is insignificant, from an infection rate of 0.000 059% of the population to 0.000 072% of the population. That's not an epidemic, it's an inconvenience. Over the same two days on average 18 people in Germany will have actually died on the roads (Rate 4.1 deaths per 100,000 per year). With the current estimate fatality rate for Covid-19 of 2-3%, that 11 extra infections amounts to only 1/3 of a death at most.

You say "Anyone that understands anything about geometric progression knows where this is leading" and yet two sentences later say "And China is still getting something like 500 new cases everyday, for weeks nows (sic).". Is an ongoing rate of 500 people per day a geometric progression? No, it it not. Rather, in the place most affected, for the longest time, where the spread pattern is likely to have settled into what's typical for the disease it is showing anything but a geometric growth rate of infection.

Even if that infection rate persisted in China, that means an extra 15 deaths a day, 5500 a year in a country with a population of 1.435 billion people. That would push the annualised death rate of China up by 0.383 per 100,000 from 711 per 100,000 to 711.38 per 100,000, a 0.1% increase.

Please folks, less histrionics. This disease is a legitimate health concern. It's a highly virulent variant of the common cold virus that has a much higher fatality rate than the standard virus (which nevertheless does kill some people each year). But with a fatality rate of 2-3% for people who actually get infected it is not going to wipe the world out, it is not even going to decimate it.

The level of precautions being taken at the moment to contain its spread will be quite adequate to ensure that in years to come hardly any of us will have tales to tell of the death of someone we knew due to Covid-19. I, and I suspect most of us apart from the very young, can tell tales of having friends taken from us by AIDS, motorcycles, motor cars, alcohol and cancer. Very few of you will be telling those tales about Covid-19. Be cautious, yes, but don't panic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 02, 2020, 08:21:26 am
It's exactly that kind of thinking that leads people to panic rather than approach this rationally.

Firstly saying "the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days." as if that "22+%" means anything. That's the kind of percentage used by red top newspaper subeditors to make something out of nothing. Even the use of the emotive "jumped" instead of 'increased' or some other less loaded word is straight out of the same playbook. Why not go the whole hog and say 'soared'.

I disagree - it makes sense to talk about % of population once equilibrium is found within the population (e.g with heart disease or sexually transmitted diseases), but not with a new emerging infectious disease.

In Wuhan cases were originally increasing at 40% day on day - at the time I was keeping a spreadsheet of the WHO Situation Report numbers and could predict them days in advance withing a +/- a few %.

Then very extensive measures were taken to reduce spread by reducing person to person contact, and build emergency medical facilities, on the 23rd Jan . For the next week the new cases per day still increased, then started to level off, then fell dramatically. The cause of this was those who were already exposed developing symptoms and seeking medical assistance.

(There was then the blip when the included clinical diagnosed cases, but the leveling off has continued, with now cases just trickling in).

The Wuhan lockdown have not yet been relaxed - the latest is "20 February 2020, the Chinese government has issued extension of order to shut down all non-essential companies, including manufacturing plants, and all schools in Hubei Province until at least 24:00 10 March"

To me, it seems to be a very unstable situation - any relaxation will cause a jump in cases in 14 days, but the lockdown cannot be in place indefinitely.

I would wager that Italy and the US will see double-digit day-on-day growth rate in cases until either lockdowns have been in place for a week or more, or more that 25% of the population have experienced the illness. The growth rate will vary country to country because of population density health systems, sanitation and so on, but without intervention it won't stop.

All you have to do is look at the Johns Hopkins graph on a log scale to see where this is going without meaningful intervention. Another week and there will be more cases outside China than inside (see attached image)

Oh, and reporting in the USA is so stuffed up for political and social reasons. Only the number of deaths will be reliable. At a guess I work backwards and say for every death there were 50 cases about 2 weeks ago, and this has increased at 20% day on day - I know it sounds fanciful, but there may be as many as 10,000 undiagnosed there! The USA really need to sort their testing out.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 02, 2020, 02:46:18 pm
All you have to do is look at the Johns Hopkins graph on a log scale to see where this is going without meaningful intervention. Another week and there will be more cases outside China than inside (see attached image)

Absolutely. You have a disease with a minimum 2 day period before people show symptoms (2-14 days before symptoms appear) and for at least part of that time they are infectious (infectious time versus infected time currently unknown). Uncontrolled that would indeed spread following a power law. However, there is intervention, worldwide, and it seems to be working.

Yes, it's a nasty disease. For some it has been a tragedy, but perspective is necessary. There have been around 5000 deaths worldwide at the time of writing. Currently daily it is killing less than malaria does, killing less than road traffic accidents do, killing less than the effects of war are in Yemen - all things that most of us are not even paying any attention to. Heck, there are probably more people dying daily in the developed world from the complications of obesity.

We need to respond to Covid-19, but we don't need to lose our heads. It's the old story of humans reacting to unfamiliar threats with exaggerated fear out of proportion to the threat while treating familiar threats with disdain. For most of us getting into our cars to drive to the shops is more likely to kill us this month than Covid-19 is but it's not causing people to panic buy and lock themselves up in their houses as some people have reacted to Covid-19.

It doesn't help that the disease first appeared in a slightly different tribe of bipedal monkeys, so our reactions are also loaded with our innate bipedal monkey xenophobia to other tribes as well. Not that any of the wise, rational people on here have ever exhibited an overreaction to that particular tribe like, say, saying that everything that tribe makes is crap, or counterfeit, or the product of mere copying. Oh no, we're thankfully all immune to that particular fallacy of thought.  :P

But seriously. The Chinese response to this has been quite amazing and they have taken measures at a speed and scale that has taken a lot of the brunt of dealing with this off the shoulders of other countries. It's down to the rest of the world to manage the relatively light load of carefully monitoring and quarantining of people leaving the affected area and returning to other parts of the world (possibly extending this if other hotspots appear). As long as the rest of us don't do something stupid* that encourages people to avoid/evade the necessary controls then we'll all be fine.

All that's needed on top is a system to manage and isolate any cases that have already slipped through the net. In the UK there's been adequate and reasonable public advice issued: if you get symptoms and have cause to believe it's Covid-19 stay home, phone the NHS helpline and you'll get help (at no cost to yourself).


* The US state department evacuated an American from Wuhan and then forced him and his family into quarantine. So far so good. BUT, he was then hit with a US hospital bill, at rapacious US hospital rates for the six days he was quarantined there, for which he is not insured. (For those not familiar with US hospital charging this will be at least a $1000 a day for each member of his family.) The hospital has since fixed this and is billing the government instead, BUT this is just the kind of thing that would encourage some people to evade controls. Further this from the same story:

Quote
The incident highlighted how the American government’s response to a public health emergency, like trying to contain a potential coronavirus epidemic, could be handicapped by relying on a system built around private hospitals and for-profit health insurance providers. Last month, a man in Miami who returned from a work trip to China feeling sick went to a hospital to be tested for coronavirus. The test came back negative, but his high-deductible health insurance provider told him he would have to pay at least $1,400, the Miami Herald reported, and provide three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got was not related to a preexisting condition. Without producing the records, he would owe $3,270 for getting tested.

Nothing beats a system set up to effectively punish people for being responsible as a means of encouraging them to be irresponsible.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 02, 2020, 11:12:18 pm

As long as the rest of us don't do something stupid* that encourages people to avoid/evade the necessary controls then we'll all be fine.

All that's needed on top is a system to manage and isolate any cases that have already slipped through the net. In the UK there's been adequate and reasonable public advice issued: if you get symptoms and have cause to believe it's Covid-19 stay home, phone the NHS helpline and you'll get help (at no cost to yourself).

But that's the problem - there are plenty of people who will ignore/evade the necessary controls. On a BBC Radio 2 phone-in today the issue of self isolation was being discussed. One caller said he could not afford the loss of income of self isolation so if he contracts the virus he will carry on working. Various others talked of the financial difficulties of self isolating (but didn't go as far as to admit on air that they might not self isolate if push came to shove).

I'm sure he's not alone, especially when people, such as my wife's work colleagues who are saying it's nothing to worry about; it's all hype, it only affects old people with underlying conditions (implying they are likely to die soon enough anyway?) and most people who get it have very mild to non-existent symptoms.

There were reports last week of many guests at the Tenerife hotel which was supposed to be in lockdown who blatently ignored instructions to stay in their rooms and wear masks otherwise and decided to continue their holiday poolside taking no precautionary measures.

You don't need many with these attitudes to guarantee widespread dissemination of the virus. I suspect there will be a lot like them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 12:59:41 am
Very good points from Cerebus and splin, above.

This is kinda off-topic, but this is exactly what I belive Nietsche meant when he said that God is dead.  You see, in the olden days, this kind of selfish behaviour ("keeping other people safe is too expensive for me, so I will risk their health instead of taking a financial hit") was controlled by fear of God, of divine punishment here or in the afterlife.  We don't have that, so we are finding it difficult to force people to behave in a way that minimizes the risk for the entire herd species people.  We have become self-centered and shellfish selfish, without the counterbalance an organized religion used to have.

It is also an excellent point that rather than to try and control others, we should try to instill in ourselves and our children that the best results are gained by controlling our own behaviour, rather than pushing others.  (We do not put ourselves in quarantine to protect us from those possibly infected, but to avoid spreading the infection, in case we ourselves happen to be infected.) It works in other fields of human interaction as well  :-*
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 03, 2020, 01:42:20 am
It's all hype in that it's not much different from the regular flu that goes around. I just looked it up today and in the USA the flu has killed 10,000 already this year, yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died.

We should take measures to prevent the spread of all infectious diseases, not just ignore it until the media hypes everyone into a frenzy over something like this. I think that ALL businesses should provide paid sick leave or the ability to work remotely when feasible for anyone who is sick. If someone shows up at the office visibly ill send them home! A place I used to work had no work from home policy and while we did get paid leave that was only for FTEs and we had a few hourly contractors who didn't. They would come in sick as hell, coughing and sneezing and a few days later half the office would be sick. Even FTEs would often come in sick, I guess due to a culture that views such things as indicating that one is a hard worker. It drives me nuts, the cost of paying one person to stay home and rest far outweighs the cost of paying 20 people to come in and get nothing done because they're miserable and ill.

People should also wash their hands properly, and take other sensible precautions. Instead we oscillate wildly between careless disregard and flailing around in a panicked frenzy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 03, 2020, 02:10:33 am
It's all hype in that it's not much different from the regular flu that goes around. I just looked it up today and in the USA the flu has killed 10,000 already this year, yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died.

Seriously??  :palm:

Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc. So no need to worry!

A doctor on the radio (here in the UK) the other day pointed out that the infection rate was around double that of regular flu, and approximately 10 times the death rate of regular flu (not to be confused with non-regular flu such as the post first world war Spanish flu). He also pointed out that his intensive care unit is typically 60% occupied by flu patients in the winter; I expect the NHS is going to be in major crisis before too long despite lots of complacent reassurances from politicians and even some senior scientists. I really hope they are right.

I rather think you're "yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died" is going to look very foolish in a few months time. Though I really hope you are right.

Given the relatively high mortatality rate in the elderly, you have to wonder how the UK's house of Lords and the US senate might look in a year's time...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 03, 2020, 03:08:13 am
It's all hype in that it's not much different from the regular flu that goes around. I just looked it up today and in the USA the flu has killed 10,000 already this year, yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died.

The salient difference is that 0.095% of people who contract 'ordinary' seasonal flu die from it (the case-mortality ratio), 2-3% of people who contract covid-19 die from it - that's a case-mortality ratio 21-31 times higher. So if that 10,000 deaths from flu in the US was deaths from covid-19 at similar infection rates you'd be looking at 210,000 to 310,000 deaths in the US. That is why infection control measures are necessary beyond those that would be taken for typical seasonal flu outbreaks. Also remember that for seasonal flu there is some existing specific immunity in the population that helps to control the spread (herd immunity), there is no existing herd immunity for a novel virus like covid-19 so the number of cases is likely to be significantly higher than for seasonal flu.

The case-mortality ratio of covid-19 is about the same as that of the 'Spanish' flu virus of 1918. That's why we need to take it seriously and thankfully we are, with infection control measures being put in place world wide. But at the same time we must not be Chicken Littles and run around panicking -  those infection control measures are working, if they weren't we'd already be knee deep in cases of covid-19 worldwide. That is no excuse however for complacency or carelessness, we need to continue with infection control measures until well after the number of new cases reported starts falling.

Just take you own reasonable precautions. The most important thing you can do is wash your hands if you've been out in public handling things that others may have and avoid hand to face contact - don't rub your eyes, pick your nose, chew your nails or smoke (an often missed cause of hand to mouth contact) with unwashed hands. I'd suggest that it might be good to avoid airports if you can, large dense gatherings of people are possibly risky, hospitals and schools are always places to avoid if you don't want to catch something that's 'going around'. Avoid the office if you have idiots around who insist on coming into work when they are ill. But nothing's stopping you going to the shops, taking a walk in the park or generally following a mostly normal routine.

And remember to boil all children, nurses and doctors before petting them.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 03:23:21 am
Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc.
I read his post in a completely different vein!  Weird, eh.

That's how flu epidemics start, too.  Thing is, flu is dangerous.  A lot of people die from it.  A lot, if not most, of those deaths could be avoided by early voluntary isolation (to isolate symptom-free infected carriers, stopping the spread).  We don't, and I find that utterly stupid; similar to driving against traffic lights.

Covid-19 is very flu-like.  Like for influenza viruses, there are no known antiviral treatments.  There are vaccines for the three main influenza variants, but their efficacy varies; and sometimes the variant is a different one than actually spreads most.  Covid-19 seems to spread a little slower, but with a longer incubation period, and have a higher mortality rate (as it tends to stress kidneys more in patients who get seriously ill).  The differences are quite minor, really.

Yes, it is a different virus.  Yes, both will kill a large number of people, albeit a very small fraction of the population; nothing like the black death in the middle ages (which killed about 45% of Europe's population in five years or so), or the Spanish Flu in early 1900s (which killed about 2.4% of humans on Earth).  It has been too long since the last really bad flu epidemic, I guess, since people are freaking so bad right now.

Because of the low likelihood of death for any particular individual, infected or not, there is no need to panic.  Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet; way too many for an ordinary human to understand or grasp in any intuitive manner.  (We can "feel" amounts up to a couple of thousand, but above that, we abstract, and instead count groups of humans.)

In particular, the overall death toll from covid-19 will almost certainly be no different than a bad flu season; at most at the level of pandemic expected to occur from one of the influenza viruses every three decades or so.  All the statistics bear the signs of that (since we can very simply compare them to old ones, except that we now have better information networks and much more data).

Also, the Chinese response to the virus is rather exemplary.  I do not know why they reacted so strongly, but it definitely was effective.  In the coming weeks, we will see that the number of deaths in Europe will be much higher, because of the ideological/political opposition to any sort of borders or restriction on movements -- that is my guess and bet.  I estimate we are only in the second week of the infected but symptomless carriers spreading the virus, so the true spike in cases will be a week to three weeks away still.  If that does happen, we know from the Chinese example that it could have been avoided.  Hopefully I'm completely wrong, though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 03, 2020, 03:49:37 am
The Chinese response is probably down to previous experience with SARS (also a coronavirus) back in 2002-2003 - a rare example of a political entity learning from history.

SARS (http://SARS) is an interesting exemplar for what is happening at the moment. In 2002 the UK implemented screening at UK airports and if necessary quarantine. The UK had a grand total of 4 confirmed reported SARS cases (the Chinese, the hardest hit, 5000+ cases for comparison). The UK is responding similarly this time around and at the moment the UK has had 39 cases of covid-19 recorded and China 80,000 - ratios of 1:1250 (SARS) and 1:2000 (covid-19), not wildly dissimilar. If the similarities keep up then sorry Canada you're in for a bad time (251 SARS cases in 2002-2003, 29 covid-19 cases so far).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 03, 2020, 04:43:17 am
Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet;

Ready to write this on your loved one's tombstone if they die from the virus ?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 03, 2020, 04:52:51 am
Just a minor quibble.

COVID-19 is the illness/disease

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 05:13:14 am
Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet;
Ready to write this on your loved one's tombstone if they die from the virus ?
Why not?  They will die eventually anyway; it is only a matter of when.  So will I.  Do you not realize this?

(As a matter of fact, I would like to be disposed of in the manner shown in the 1996 movie Fargo (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0116282/); with my frozen body fed through a woodchipper.  It is better than burning, because the heavy metals accumulated in my body would be spread around rather than released into the atmosphere.  Unfortunately, all my siblings and friends have absolutely refused to do it, probably because it would be rather messy.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 05:15:09 am
Just a minor quibble.

COVID-19 is the illness/disease

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19
That makes as much sense as calling the virus HIV and the illness/disease AIDS.  Because of the distinction, lots of people are dead (because they claimed the two are unrelated).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 03, 2020, 05:41:28 am
Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc.
I read his post in a completely different vein!  Weird, eh.

Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post?

Quote
In particular, the overall death toll from covid-19 will almost certainly be no different than a bad flu season; at most at the level of pandemic expected to occur from one of the influenza viruses every three decades or so.  All the statistics bear the signs of that (since we can very simply compare them to old ones, except that we now have better information networks and much more data).

Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture. No flu season has come anywhere near to the 1918 pandemic; the only other 'pandemics' in the 1957/8 and 1968/9 outbreaks were very much less severe with death rates being not much different to typical years at 0.1%, compared to the 1918 pandemic at around 2%. Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.

I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.

Quote
In the coming weeks, we will see that the number of deaths in Europe will be much higher, because of the ideological/political opposition to any sort of borders or restriction on movements -- that is my guess and bet.  I estimate we are only in the second week of the infected but symptomless carriers spreading the virus, so the true spike in cases will be a week to three weeks away still.  If that does happen, we know from the Chinese example that it could have been avoided.  Hopefully I'm completely wrong, though.

I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread. So far the only measures happening are the reduction in flights declared by Ryan Air and British Airways to Italy and other places, but only because of reducing demand. (The bold move by the US restricting flights excepted). As far as the UK government is concerned, it seems the masterplan is to hope for warm weather to slow the spread to a rate that the hospitals can cope with.

The population will eventually 'get it' and start to cooperate to tackle the spread but I very much doubt it will happen anytime soon. Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 06:36:11 am
Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post?
As emphasizing that flu is deadly too, we just ignore it because we're overdue (according to virologists/epidemiologists) for a really bad flu variant, and haven't had a really bad one in a century.  The "thrice a century" isn't just last century, you know.

Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture.
I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability.

Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.
It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods.  Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age.  It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet.

I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.
Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country?

I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread.
Perhaps "spike" was the wrong word, and "step function" would have described it better, but words are hard.  (To me, "data spiking up" refers to a sudden rise, typical for initially exponential data, but does not necessarily mean the data also drops down as fast, only that the rise is fast with at least a small peak.)

As I see it, it is just how a single-point infection spreads when not hindered by quarantines.  Remember, most of the spread occurs when the carriers are asymptomatic.  When they get visibly ill, they're already about midpoint of the illness, typically; only the rare ones (< 20% of infected) who get severely ill or die, actually suffer longer.  Again, the absolute majority will weather it quite well, with just mild flu-like symptoms.

We know of at least one infection center in Northern Italy, which was released (by letting infected tourists back home) about a week to two weeks ago.
If my understanding of the situation is correct, these carriers have infected a large number of others on their way home, with basically an exponential initial growth.  This is common and typical in early stages.  We don't know about these people, because only people showing symptoms are tested.

Because the spread occurred in a relatively short time, with the spreaders having potentially contact to many other people on their way home, the number of transmitted cases is likely very large.  These asymptomatic carriers will infect others before their own symptoms will be visible, meaning the infection at this stage is spreading at a geometric or exponential rate.  Most of those who are likely to contract the virus, have already contacted it in most European cities at this point, I'm guessing.

The reason it is a spike, or will level out like capped by a ceiling, like a step function, is twofold.  One is that most of the people who will get infected, are already infected at that point.  The other is that most of the infected will get well, so the number of infected will eventually drop.  It won't be a needle-like spike, but more like a step function with a exponential rise, followed by a much slower gradual decrease.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 03, 2020, 01:15:55 pm
For those who believes in WHO, a 40 pages report by the WHO team who visited China on 16-24 February 2020.

-> Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf) (PDF file)


At the Assessment section, these paragraphs, imo, has interesting situation from the WHO observation ...

"Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.  At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities.  Despite ongoing outbreaks in their own areas, Governors and Mayors have continued to send thousands of health care workers and tons of vital PPE supplies into Hubei province and Wuhan city.

At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction.  They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures – whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel.  Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, Governors and Mayors, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response.
"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rf-loop on March 03, 2020, 02:38:30 pm
Also, the Chinese response to the virus is rather exemplary.  I do not know why they reacted so strongly, but it definitely was effective.

I can very easy think why China reacted so strongly. It was not even enough strongly and fast, but it need understand that decisions have made using knowledge what was available at this time and not with afterwards available knowledge. I have lived here now some time and followed quite tightly all things related to this (and also lived with SARS-CoV-2 around me and keeping it away from me). Only small difficulty is chinese language because my on next step of protection, now need faith against virus spread what is coming from outside to China as )one small example) last some cases in Zhejiang from EU (and same time keep care that Hubei do not leak to other parts of China.)
But, first bio war against virus is going end and over 96% of China is quite clean. China without Hubei confirmed current cases under 1.4ppm (peak was 6,7ppm) in population. In Wuhan alone at this time confirmed current cases around 2180ppm. (peak was 3454ppm, more slow decay due to communal spread of virus there) We can think what happen without strong intervention for attenuate speed of escalation and try to some isolation, just for think dimensions, 3454ppm in whole China is 4,9Mppl. If 20% get severe COVID-19 disease it is neary 1Mppl.   Without this strong and quite fast intervention... All know what it mean if this happen.  We know how Wuhan was in most bad days... if Wuhan have xx% from whole PLA medical human resources and still it it need lot of nurses and doctors from other prefectures. So, thank they start this strong and fast war against virus.



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 03, 2020, 02:56:56 pm
Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.

You don't know your own countries 'dictatorial powers' well enough. Check out the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the Emergency Powers Act 1964. In case of an 'emergency' the government can grant itself pretty much any power and suspend pretty much any existing law that it wants to. Most 'democracies' have some such set of dictatorial powers lurking on the books.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 03, 2020, 03:40:36 pm
I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability.

Maybe but we aren't looking at .1% differences are we? Other than regular flu having a well understood death rate of around .1%

Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher. There are no 0.1% differences here.

Quote
Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.
It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods.

"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. The best current estimates from health professionals and scientists is that it is around twice as infectious. No doubt that will get revised as better statistics become available with increasing numbers.

I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.

Quote
  Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age.  It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet.

So what? That's still 800% higher than regular flu. And why be selective with the figures? What about the elderly with much higher mortality rates? Don't you care about them? Accurate numbers will become available in due course but it seems clear that they are much higher than 'regular' flu.

Quote
I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.
Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country?

Yes, but they just about cope, ususally. It's not uncommon for non emergency procedures to get postponed to accomodate more serious flu outbreaks, but it's likely to be as nothing compared to a serious epidemic of ncov-19 "as evidenced" by China having to build a whole new temporary hospital to handle the large numbers of acute patients. I doubt they've ever done that for 'regular flu' outbreaks.

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Most of those who are likely to contract the virus, have already contacted it in most European cities at this point, I'm guessing.

Hardly. 'Experts' here in the UK are expecting it to peak by around June. Its barely started yet. The UK government seem to be preparing for up to 80% of the population to catch the virus - but are hoping for good weather to slow it down to reduce pressure on the health services.

Maybe the public can yet be persuaded to adopt harsh isolation measures to limit its spread but I think too many people are too selfish these days for this to work. The days of the wartime spirit with everybody doing their bit for the common good seem to be long gone. I hope I've misjudged the public.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 03, 2020, 03:44:35 pm
Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.

One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.

You don't know your own countries 'dictatorial powers' well enough. Check out the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the Emergency Powers Act 1964. In case of an 'emergency' the government can grant itself pretty much any power and suspend pretty much any existing law that it wants to. Most 'democracies' have some such set of dictatorial powers lurking on the books.

Yup. We have actually used this extensively over here a few years back when there had been a wave of terrorist attacks, and some of the dispositions from the "state of emergency", when it was finally ended, eventually made it to the general laws. Did all this cause some heavy discussions over here? Yup it did. Was the government not able to proceed due to people's concerns though? Nope.

Similar things happened in the USA back in early 2000's (also due to terrorism), and it had lasting effects.

Those powers are not just lurking. They are effectively used, and more often than you think.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 03, 2020, 09:01:09 pm
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?  As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

You obviously have no experience with noisy data, because at these scales comparing such small numbers with such high noise has huge error bars, "1 to 2 thousand percent higher" being as accurate as "enormous" or "tiny".  Essentially, the error bars at these scales are larger than the values themselves.  You can make statistical predictions based on them, but their reliability is very poor.

This is a perfect example of a dataset where your numbers are from a biased subset.  The apparent numbers do not reflect the true characteristics.

"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. [...]
I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.
Ah, you are the type that goes "that's too daft, as I'm pretty certain".  I apologise for mistaking you for someone who considers things in a rational analytical fashion, instead of just going by the feel of your pants.

This is the first time the spread of an infectitious disease seems to have been completely stopped by quarantining the affected regions.  You might be pretty certain of whatever you like, but history shows us neither European countries nor Northern America has managed that yet.  Thus far, serious disease has only been managed through vaccination programs only.  We know quarantine works, and epidemiologists have been talking about self-imposed quarantines as an effective method for these viral outbreaks for decades; average westerners have just ignored their advice completely, and keep sneering at Asians wearing breathing masks (whose intent is not to protect themselves from infection, but from spreading possible infection to others; this seems a concept too hard to understand for many).

Yes, but they just about cope, ususally.
Be careful, you're waving your hands so hard you might start flying.

Are you sure you're not trying to explain things according to your own fixed internal model, instead of looking at the various possibilities that could explain the phenomena we are seeing?  I am trying to do the latter (because I am painfully aware of my internal tendencies to do the former, and absolutely hate it when it happens: it feels to me like getting lost because of being too lazy to look at the map often enough), and have pretty consistently described these as my current opinion.  I could be wrong -- and do feel free to disagree, I and others here value the viewpoints -- but when you start saying things like "that's too daft to even laugh at" followed by "I'm pretty certain that" you sound like having to question your own beliefs or understanding is your worst fear.  It shouldn't be; it is best to be your own advocatus diaboli, to inspect the roots of your beliefs and understanding, to find out where you truly stand.

As an example of weaknesses in my own understanding, I really do not know how dangerous this situation is, because we really do not know the true number of infected.  We know the lower bound, from people admitted to hospitals, but we have no reliable detection method, so the number of infected but with minor symptomps could be huge.  In fact, the scariest scenario is that there are actually more than one virus involved here, possibly describing the reinfection cases.  (The worst case scenario still is that the mutation rate is so high that human immune systems cannot keep up with it; this also makes any sort of effective vaccine highly unlikely.)

If anyone asks me how dangerous this is, I can only say truthfully "I don't know", or lie.  I just don't have anything to correlate this with.  So, instead, I just live with it, knowing that this epidemic or something like it will repeat at least once more in my lifetime, and I will then be even more susceptible (due to age) than I am now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 04, 2020, 12:16:37 am
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?  As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

Where do you get your numbers from? That R0 number is very freely available, from various studies - eg:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30091-6/fulltext (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30091-6/fulltext)

Of cause R0 varies depending on where you measure it, a jail or hospital is different from a subway or a isolated tropical island.

The 'reliable test available' is more of a people/political thing than a technology thing. in some countries they are being actively used. South Korea have been doing 2,138 test per million people. Finland have done 23 test per million people, and USA less than 2 - but now they have withdrawn the numbers.. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/)

Apart from the CDC fiasco, false negatives in are mainly due to the samples not having enough RNA material to amplify, not due to failures of the test kits.

Rumor has it that the first positive test in the rest home was by a researcher who made their own test, as they couldn't get one through the CDC.

If the testing is unreliable (with lots of false negatives) then the actual R0 must be higher that indicated through testing... so you've shot yourself in the foot. Or are you saying it has false positives?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: chickadee on March 04, 2020, 12:17:46 am
Ok, just a little bit of hilarity from the AP news:

https://apnews.com/dcd130364f2bbec8142d0ae47f805cba (https://apnews.com/dcd130364f2bbec8142d0ae47f805cba)

So basically the USA media needs to be negative and sensational about everything, so this is what they came up with...

Meanwhile, in the same few days, well over 10,000 (and likely closer to 20,000-30,000!) Americans died from other things - traffic fatalities, abortions, diseases induced by all the plastics in humans bodies and other pollutants from the environment...  But this is old news to them and you won't even find it on the last page   :-//

I don't know when journalism died, but it must have been a while ago  :-\
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 04, 2020, 12:39:16 am
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.
Where did you pull those number from?

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html (https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)

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Virus transmission

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19.  Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science

Also:

https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa021/5735319 (https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa021/5735319)

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Our review found the average R0 to be 3.28 and median to be 2.79, which exceed WHO estimates from 1.4 to 2.5. The studies using stochastic and statistical methods for deriving R0 provide estimates that are reasonably comparable. However, the studies using mathematical methods produce estimates that are, on average, higher. Some of the mathematically derived estimates fall within the range produced the statistical and stochastic estimates. It is important to further assess the reason for the higher R0 values estimated by some the mathematical studies. For example, modelling assumptions may have played a role. In more recent studies, R0 seems to have stabilized at around 2–3. R0 estimations produced at later stages can be expected to be more reliable, as they build upon more case data and include the effect of awareness and intervention. It is worthy to note that the WHO point estimates are consistently below all published estimates, although the higher end of the WHO range includes the lower end of the estimates reviewed here.

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As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.

A bit arrogant don't you think? You don't just suppose the professionals and experts in the field and within the WHO might not be aware of that? Of course I don't know if you are one such expert with in depth access to the raw data and computer models used to normalise the data to account for many confounding factors - noise as you suggest. If so I must apologise of course.

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You obviously have no experience with noisy data, because at these scales comparing such small numbers with such high noise has huge error bars, "1 to 2 thousand percent higher" being as accurate as "enormous" or "tiny".

Rubbish. I'm not an expert in statistics but I understand the concepts well enough. What 'small numbers' are you talking about? The death rate for regular flu is widely published as 0.1% by various reputable bodies, based on very large data sets so the value should be pretty reliable and the error bars small.

The death rate for Ncov-19 is less reliable but the datasets are still pretty large given official numbers of cases exceeding 80,000. The number of deaths are known pretty reliably so the error bars for the 'death rate for known cases' will be small and varies for different locations and will change over time as the virus mutates and/or the virus loading of infected individuals varies as the weather changes etc.

The adjusted numbers, for those projected to have or have had the virus but not included in the official case numbers are where the noise/uncertainty comes in and will no doubt be quite large but will not change the obeservation that Ncov-19 has a much higher death rate than flu, with rates, published by reputable bodies, in the range 8 to 35 times that of flu.

I'm sure, if I could be bothered, I could find published papers that provide reliable estimates of the uncertainties. I can't so I am happy to rely on the the published numbers as being reasonable. If Ncov-19 has the same death rate as regular flu that would mean they have had nearly 3 million cases compared to the official figure of 80,000. If so I would suggest that would be almost impossible to hide and the spread would be completely out of control.

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Essentially, the error bars at these scales are larger than the values themselves.  You can make statistical predictions based on them, but their reliability is very poor.

What scales are you talking about? The scale, as in the death rate and infection rate itself has very little to do with reliability that is determined by the sample size which needs to be statisically significant - which is certainly the case for these figures

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This is a perfect example of a dataset where your numbers are from a biased subset.  The apparent numbers do not reflect the true characteristics.

Again, unless you have access to the actual data etc. I don't see how you can possibly make any claims about the reliabilty or uncertainty of the published numbers. Really, since you are the one making the claim that the 'official' numbers are unreliable then the onus is on you to provide some evidence.

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"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. [...]
I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.
Ah, you are the type that goes "that's too daft, as I'm pretty certain".  I apologise for mistaking you for someone who considers things in a rational analytical fashion, instead of just going by the feel of your pants.

Ok, I apologise for being flipant, but there comes a point when there's little point continuing the discussion when it descends into, what one party or the other considers to be absurdity and I made that judgement. I try to keep an open mind and 'consider things in a rational analytical fashion' but your "as evidenced by" claim definately crossed the threshold where I considered that further discussion is pointless. Your suggestion is nothing but a hypothesis and certainly does not provide any evidence, any more than the lunar landing deniers present lots of 'evidence'.

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This is the first time the spread of an infectitious disease seems to have been completely stopped by quarantining the affected regions.  You might be pretty certain of you like, but history shows us neither European countries nor Northern America has managed that yet.

I'm definately no expert in this area but I would suggest that Ebola, SARs, MERs were stopped by human intervention but they were likely much less transmissable. Plenty of animal infections have been stopped by quarantining - eg. foot and mouth disease in the UK. Quarantining is a proven method for stopping the spread of disease if applied sufficiently rigorously.

In the case of China's effective quaranting of Ncov-19, I would further suggest it is the
only time it has ever been applied on a large scale outbreak so you cannot draw any conclusions about the transmissivity of Ncov-19 compared to flu based on this one outcome. Statistically absolutely insignificant.

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  Thus far, serious disease has only been managed through vaccination programs only.  We know quarantine works, and epidemiologists have been talking about self-imposed quarantines as an effective method for these viral outbreaks for decades; average westerners have just ignored their advice completely, and keep sneering at Asians wearing breathing masks (whose intent is not to protect themselves from infection, but from spreading possible infection to others; this seems a concept too hard to understand for many).

I think we are  largely in agreement here.

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Yes, but they just about cope, ususally.
Be careful, you're waving your hands so hard you might start flying.

I've really no idea what you are trying to say here. I just checked and my hands definately aren't waving. How about addressing what I said? Do you believe that Western and Chinese health services haven't managed to cope reasonably well with previous flu outbreaks, albeit if considerably stretched on occasion?

Do you really believe that hospitals in China were not seriously overwhelmed by Ncov-19  cases on a much bigger scale than any flu outbreak in the last fifty years or so?

For the avoidance of doubt I believe that the impact of Ncov-19 on hospitals in China was very much worse than any recent flu and expect that western hospitals will be equally badly affected if the transmision rate isn't slowed by warmer weather.

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Are you sure you're not trying to explain things according to your own fixed internal model, instead of looking at the various possibilities that could explain the phenomena we are seeing?  I am trying to do the latter (because I am painfully aware of my internal tendencies to do the former, and absolutely hate it when it happens: it feels to me like getting lost because of being too lazy to look at the map often enough), and have pretty consistently described these as my current opinion.  I could be wrong -- and do feel free to disagree, I and others here value the viewpoints -- but when you start saying things like "that's too daft to even laugh at" followed by "I'm pretty certain that" you sound like having to question your own beliefs or understanding is your worst fear.  It shouldn't be; it is best to be your own advocatus diaboli, to inspect the roots of your beliefs and understanding, to find out where you truly stand.

I'm sorry but I can't muster the energy to try and comprehend the above philosophy. I'm taking a simple view and don't pretend to have any special knowledge of the disease - I'm simply observing its rapid spread and noting official death rates.

I conclude that as no significant measures have, as yet, been put into place to control movements to and from infection hotspots, especially Italy, that the virus is now out of control and a large percentage of the world population will contract the disease.

The spread hopefully will slow down as the public eventually reacts to the danger and modifies its behaviour. Given claims today that privately contracted staff working in NHS hospitals (eg. cleaners) will continue to work when infected because they won't get sick pay, doesn't give me much hope.
 
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As an examples,  of weaknesses in my own understanding, I really do not know how dangerous this situation is, because we really do not know the true number of infected.  We know the lower bound, from people admitted to hospitals, but we have no reliable detection method, so the number of infected but with minor symptomps could be huge.  In fact, the scariest scenario is that there are actually more than one virus involved here, possibly describing the reinfection cases.  (The worst case scenario still is that the mutation rate is so high that human immune systems cannot keep up with it; this also makes any sort of effective vaccine highly unlikely.)

If anyone asks me how dangerous this is, I can only say truthfully "I don't know", or lie.  I just don't have anything to correlate this with.  So, instead, I just live with it, knowing that this epidemic or something like it will repeat at least once more in my lifetime, and I will then be even more susceptible (due to age) than I am now.

"I just live with it" or die with it perhaps. Let's hope not. I'm not personally interested in speculating about the possibilities of further mutations or the possibility of multiple viruses. There is enough to worry about as there is.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 04, 2020, 01:32:00 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA8XYSftmtQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA8XYSftmtQ)
Interesting to note that the deaths correlated most to other medical problems and smoking.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 04, 2020, 01:44:13 am
We have several people now in hospitals in my area (Toronto) with coronavirus:

https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/ (https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/)

The situation is only getting worse. Our most recent cases are from people who visited Iran, and I believe one went through Egypt. Anyways, I've heard from quite a few people I bumped into just in the last few days that the local Costco (large warehouse-sized superstore for those who don't know) was *VERY* busy with huge line ups and so on... WHY????

At first one might think people are in panic mode and clearing the shelves of essentials, waiting for the oncoming Zombie apocalypse. It turns out the huge line-ups are due to Costco implementing some new protocol where EVERY SHOPPING CART entering the store gets a Lysol wipe-down and everyone is getting their hands sprayed/sanitized or something like that.... So it is creating line-ups.

Second issue is with store shelves being depleted not due to panic buying, but lack of STOCK arriving from overseas. Walmart is likely to experience the same... As the shipping-container industry grinds to a halt, many workers in China not available to load ships or ships being held in ports for longer times. So it is creating a backlog of shipments and goods which for the most part in these stores comes from China.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 04, 2020, 01:48:19 am
Interesting to note that the deaths correlated most to other medical problems and smoking.

Not wishing to be flippant, but that's a commonplace. Upper repository tract viral infections (which covers Coronavirus, Flu and some others) typically have worse outcomes in the very old, the very young and people with pre-existing respiratory medical conditions (asthma, COAD/COPD/emphysema*, smoking related COAD, industrially acquired COADS) or respiratory insufficiency from other medical conditions (heart and circulatory problems, etc). SARS was an odd one out as the killer element of SARS seems to have been it triggering a 'cytokine storm' in the immune system and that is more likely to happen to the otherwise most fit individuals - SARS fatality rate was highest in the 15-30 age group, the group that normally has the highest survival rate from this class of infections.


* The bloody name keeps changing. Chronic Bronchitis => Emphysema => Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease => Chronic Obstructive Airway Disease
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 04, 2020, 02:33:02 am
We have several people now in hospitals in my area (Toronto) with coronavirus:

https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/ (https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/)

The situation is only getting worse. Our most recent cases are from people who visited Iran, and I believe one went through Egypt. Anyways, I've heard from quite a few people I bumped into just in the last few days that the local Costco (large warehouse-sized superstore for those who don't know) was *VERY* busy with huge line ups and so on... WHY????

At first one might think people are in panic mode and clearing the shelves of essentials, waiting for the oncoming Zombie apocalypse. It turns out the huge line-ups are due to Costco implementing some new protocol where EVERY SHOPPING CART entering the store gets a Lysol wipe-down and everyone is getting their hands sprayed/sanitized or something like that.... So it is creating line-ups.

Second issue is with store shelves being depleted not due to panic buying, but lack of STOCK arriving from overseas. Walmart is likely to experience the same... As the shipping-container industry grinds to a halt, many workers in China not available to load ships or ships being held in ports for longer times. So it is creating a backlog of shipments and goods which for the most part in these stores comes from China.

There is panic buying going on too, according to staff at the local supermarket....  (east coast USA)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 04, 2020, 04:01:26 am
Trying to beat the stampede is not panic, it's rational.

The end effect of rational decisions might be undesirable on a larger scale but who the hell wants to be stuck with shitty toilet paper? Better stock up on 3-ply now.

PS. not even kidding ...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 04, 2020, 04:20:51 am
Who thinks Dave needs to do a teardown....

https://wsvn.com/news/local/pompano-beach-companys-air-cleansing-invention-in-high-demand/

I have a feeling things like this are gonna be coming out of the woodwork...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: jonovid on March 04, 2020, 04:54:24 am
interesting how some people are more concerned about wiping their ass!  than if they have enough food or water  :palm:

all them people that make fun of survivalism, preppers, doom's-dayers. no they are not paranoid.
how many people have solar panels on the roof but its not an off grid system. useless in a power-outage.
have rainwater downpipes but no water tank. gravel garden but no vegetables.

what maybe biological warfare Coronavirus is a Pandemic! but no body saying so for now, 
no body's calling Pandemic for now because of the US 2020 Presidential Race , & other sacred cows like the Olympics!
 like a type of human myxomatosis to control global populations. Eugenics  them that believe the world is overpopulated.
if it was just anther Ebola it would have ended by now.  this is something 10x more deadly!  :scared:
the panic will come for them that fear the reaper.   Plague is nothing new.   as most pandemics in human history
the worlds human population will recover from this hit.

insects animals & aircraft all can spread a pandemic
I note a large plague of locusts muching their way from  Ethiopia, in the Horn of Africa all the way up-to China,
locusts grasshoppers according to my grandfather, when in plague swarm will eat anything & everything green,
even eating the green paint on blinding s. then dying on mass.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 04, 2020, 07:39:02 am
In situations like this, one will be better off if hungry but kept his ass clean.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marck on March 04, 2020, 10:05:08 am
I have been casually watching and reading the daily WHO situation reports (this is to avoid the media hype).  One thing I have noticed and is by no means a fact or mathematical just very casual observation but the point of rapid increases is case numbers seems to trigger in each reported region when the new cases per day gets to about 30 percent of total cases and seems to roughly stabilise at that rate.  The exception to this was wuhan itself when the confirmed cases seemed to level off at about 3-4K but I think that was where they hit the limit of their daily diagnostic capability. 

Here in Australia people are just being dumb.  I have no issues with people doing what they think is best for themselves and their family.  The first 2 things you could not find was hand sanitiser and face masks.  The sanitiser I get but the advice is that face masks are not a recommendation for control of transmission unless you are sick and trying to prevent transmitting the virus to others.
And now toilet paper panic buying. 

I gave this whole situation some thought (I am not a prepper of any kind I have trouble having enough socks to last a week).  My shopping list based on the fact that everyone in my home is below 50 and otherwise healthy. 

200 paracetamol tablets and 200 ibuprofen tablets and a dozen bars of soap. So if the virus makes its way into our home and the outbreak is at the point where only the very sick will be hospitalised at least I will be able to treat the aches and pains and maybe control the fever for the couple of weeks to a month we could be unwell if we don’t get sick enough to make it to hospital.  And even then I feel I could be overreacting.

But I have given the kids a strict hygiene plan to implement now so it’s in practice if (when?) numbers start increasing here. 

And that’s just washing hands in every change in environment train - school. Break-class things like that.

I have told them that if numbers here start to climb that they have the go ahead to remove themselves from any situation where someone is unwell.  Be it class or the train and they can Uber home whatever. 

Personally I think this thing is in the wild and there will be no containment.  And focus now will be controlling the spread so that the medical systems can cope and not explode and all but cripple the healthcare system. 

And with any luck we will keep it out of our home and make it to the point a vaccine hits the market and get around it that way. 


But I was one of the lucky ones that got H1N1 with no traceability for its source and after the point where they where trying to contain it. My doc just sent me home with a course of tamiflu where I was quarantined to my room and my wife just left supplies outside the door and I would give reports on myself via text message incase I got really sick.  We managed to avoid passing it from me to her.

And I can tell you with that one I actually wanted to die. And no signs of running out of TP. 

M

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rerouter on March 04, 2020, 10:33:25 am
Can confirm Australia now has mass panic buying aswell, couldn't help but laugh seeing every bit of paper out of stock, even serving napkins....

Pain is they also bought out all the pet food... luckily all the grass is seeding, so able to handle for the next few weeks with a few walks by the nearby park and greenways for my birds,

yet all the non-perishable foods left untouched, even things like cereals which are easy to keep, and energy dense, almost fully stocked... It puzzles me
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marck on March 04, 2020, 10:54:56 am
This could very well be the case I am not a medical professional so I can’t argue the point.  I will be watching the WHO and Australian government guidelines with interest.  If that is indeed the strategy behind the no mask required policy it will be interesting if there is any fallout.

Probably no fallout here in Australia because we are so apathetic unless we are worried about running out of toilet paper.

M
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 04, 2020, 01:19:38 pm
if it was just anther Ebola it would have ended by now.  this is something 10x more deadly!  :scared:
It's definitely nowhere as deadly as Ebola, in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: splin on March 04, 2020, 01:34:03 pm
in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.

It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates-vary-wildly-depending-on-age-gender-and-medical-history-some-patients-fare-much-worse-than-others-2020-02-26 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates-vary-wildly-depending-on-age-gender-and-medical-history-some-patients-fare-much-worse-than-others-2020-02-26)

Quote
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, delivered new fatality rates for COVID-19 at a press conference Tuesday
Getty Images
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died, WHO says.

As the COVID-19 spreads, scientists are learning more about the disease’s fatality rate.

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, said at a press briefing in Geneva. That’s more than previous estimates that hovered around 2% and the influenza fatality rate of less than 1%.

Tedros said last week the fatality rate in Wuhan, China, considered the epicenter of the outbreak, is between 2% and 4%. Outside of Wuhan, it is thought to be closer to 0.7%, although some estimates put it at closer to 2%. The epidemic is “affecting countries in different ways,” he added.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 04, 2020, 03:44:46 pm
interesting how some people are more concerned about wiping their ass!  than if they have enough food or water  :palm:

It's unlikely a pandemic could disrupt the water supply ... it would have to be apocalyptic.

People running on toilet paper was happening in Japan and it was entirely predictable that that would be contagious after it was reported in the news.

PS. a small silver lining, the virus is accelerating some medical trials like intravenous vitamin C. Hope it works out, just lost someone to pneumonia he got from an unrelated hospital stay. Would be nice to have more therapies, especially one so cheap.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 04, 2020, 03:57:16 pm
Individuals don't care about statistics.
It's also vice versa.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 04, 2020, 04:32:27 pm
in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.

It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.

Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 04, 2020, 05:08:46 pm
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 04, 2020, 06:06:30 pm
India has found a cure for Covid !

https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/ (https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 04, 2020, 08:08:54 pm
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.

I'm picking that this is so a large group related can be informed at the same time.

<complete speculation> A random guess would be that the person is at a school student or a member of staff - hoepfully not.</complete speculation>

Update: Phew, the case is not a student but a parent who has had family members recently return from Iran. They do have children at two different schools, which has been notified.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 05, 2020, 01:50:19 am
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.
Infected from the family member that bought Corona from Iran. Family now in lockdown.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: aix on March 05, 2020, 07:29:11 am
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

I am not seeing that (in the UK).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: FriedLogic on March 05, 2020, 02:02:34 pm
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

Apparently there's a deliberate attempt by some social media companies etc. to promote what they class as reliable info. There's some concern about how much traffic is going to the 'unreliable' sources at the moment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 05, 2020, 02:50:35 pm
I get the same on Digikey web site.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 05, 2020, 06:49:12 pm
There are 2 strains of the covid19 - see the pdf "On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2" (https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463#authorNotesSectionTitle), scientists say :
"S" - less prevalent ancestral version, and
"L"  - more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, more aggressive.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wallace Gasiewicz on March 05, 2020, 11:18:01 pm
Latest study from China:
Mortality lower than 1% for covid19

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1 (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1)

Wally
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 06, 2020, 12:47:30 am
Latest study from China:
Mortality lower than 1% for covid19

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1 (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1)

Wally

One of my pet hates, partial reporting of bad reporting of medical literature.

Firstly, the original paper the medscape article is based on is here ("Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China" (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032)) for anyone who wants to read it.

Secondly the headline "Mortality lower than 1% for covid19" quoted above is actually "COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'" in the Medscape article (Emphasis mine) and, as we will see, that is still inaccurate to the point of uselessness.

Thirdly the phrase 'Considerably Less Than 1%' headlined as a quote in the Medline article doesn't appear anywhere in the actual original paper, it is from a secondary source and it's still a misquote of that source, which doesn't use the phrase either. The original paper found a death rate of 1.4% in the 1099 people in the study, 9% had recovered and 93.6% were still hospitalised, i.e. the outcome for these people still hospitalised is still unknown they may die and push up the mortality rate.

Relevant figures from the actual paper:[attachimg=1]

Bottom line, the paper adds to the data available; it neither establishes a final death rate for the disease nor reports a figure lower than 1% but instead higher. This is an almost perfect example of how information in a medical journal becomes misinformation once it has been through the hands of a so called journalist and then gets quoted on social media. Never believe a headline medical story until you have tracked down and read the original underlying paper that prompted the story.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: angrybird on March 06, 2020, 12:52:11 am
How about: Never believe anything you read on the internet or see on TV.  99% of it is disinformation in one way or another  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 06, 2020, 03:26:30 am
So I am seeing a bunch of different names for this... apparently "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" is now the virus (or disease?) previously known by the provisional name 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), or COVID-19!?!   :-//

Is that to highlight that it produces SARS disease and is basically SARS version 2? Weren't SARS and MERS also coronaviruses? But they were named differently... one based on severe acute, and other Middle East (geographic label)... perhaps those weren't the final names?!?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 06, 2020, 04:30:50 am
The tonality of CBC, a major Canadian TV broadcaster and government puppet, has changed from the rosy "no worries" propaganda to "it is not a question that the virus will not come, it is when it will come" and "you may need to stock some food and supplies for at least two weeks". So much about listening to and trusting official sources. We have to take care of ourselves and follow our own judgement.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 06, 2020, 05:09:15 am
 
- there is the bat derived servere acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus SARS Cov.
- then the new one is server acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus 2. SARS-Cov-2.
- the new Corona strain causes the COVID-19 decease.
 Both are Corona family of viruses..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: angrybird on March 06, 2020, 05:12:23 am
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: purfield on March 06, 2020, 05:32:11 am
At least with influenza we have vaccines that are sometimes effective.  No such thing with COVID19 for a while.  We are all susceptible. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 06, 2020, 05:35:38 am
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

You are so sure your place this time around will not go to a lock down like those cities in China.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 06, 2020, 06:24:06 am
(I've been isolating myself this week also, in case I happened to be a carrier.  I might have a slight cold, and no need to mingle with people, so it has been quite easy.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 06, 2020, 06:39:00 am
You just don't understand the difference. We have partial antibodies for the Influenza and we get also the yearly derived booster. This protects the general population and does not causes major labor disruption. The flu kills many of the very old and very ill even with the yearly vaccine.

 Now we have a virus that no one is inmune. So it's spreading like wild fire and killing 2% of infected. Very similar to the regular Flu.

  So if you still don't understand, let's clarify.
  This are just numbers to explain the comparison.

FOLLOWING IS JUST NUMBER TO POINT A CROSS:

-IN ONE YEAR.   So if the flu kills 60,000 in the USA USING 2% that is about 3,000,000 got sick and 60'000 died even with the helper vaccine.

  No let's say COVID19. How many?  No vaccine, no immunity. This means more people will get it. How many? China had to shut down an entire city o about 30,000,000 million no one in no one out no planes, no ships. And the virus still spread world wide.  So it's just been in the USA for 6 weeks. 
 The nursing home is Seattle is having about a mortality rate of 20%. Yes old and un-healthy will have about a 14 to 20% mortality rate if we don't stop exposure.
The infected healthy recover and many need strong antiviral cocktails to overcome and also some recover after two weeks.
 So let's say the infection rate, if we don take aggressive measures to stop infection, is twice as many will get some form of Corv19. The use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu on2%.
 That means 60,000 million will get I'll. And  120,000 will die. One don't take a break e measures to stop the spread.
The USA has about 24,000,000 elderly, living in close quarters
The Flu infected 3,000,000 US even with vaccine.
Corv19 will Infect theoretically anyone exposed with no immunity.
So let say we are lucky.  The flue infected 1%.  Corv19 let say it infects 10% of us population.
That is30,000,000 people. And 2% will die. So that means 600,000 people will die.
600,000
600,000.
But that number is way wrong. Because Corv19 is killing at a 14% rate if you Are elderly or have some other serious health issue like heart disease or diabetes.
So let's say 10% are from the elderly group.
That is 24,000,000 x 10%=  2,400,000 elderly will die.

 That is just rough math if we can not stop the I vection rate to levels of the Flu.
 Since we have no Vaccine, and no immunity yet severe measure will have to be input in place just like China did.

 If we don't do what China did, rough math says 3,000,000 will die.

 DISCLAIMER. I DID THIS MATH ON THE FLY. SO DONT THROW ME UNDER THE BUS.  I JUST IN A HURRY TO GE HIS POSTED.  THIS. UMBERS IS WHY THE WORLD Iẞ REACTING IN THOSE WAYS TO STOP THE SPREAD.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 06, 2020, 06:42:56 am
How could 3,000,000 people in the USA could die.

You just don't understand the difference. We have partial antibodies for the Influenza and we get also the yearly derived booster. This protects the general population and does not causes major labor disruption. The flu kills many of the very old and very ill even with the yearly vaccine.

 Now we have a virus that no one is inmune. So it's spreading like wild fire and killing 2% of the infected. Very similar to the regular Flu.

  So if you still don't understand, let's clarify.
  This are just numbers to explain the comparison.

FOLLOWING IS JUST NUMBER MAKE THE TO POINT A CROSS:

-IN ONE YEAR.   So if the flu kills 60,000 in the USA USING 2% that is about 3,000,000 got sick and 60'000 died even with the helper vaccine.

  Now let's say COVID19. How many?  No vaccine, no immunity. This means more people will get it. How many? China had to shut down an entire city of about 30,000,000 million no one in no one out no planes, no ships. And the virus still spread world wide.  So it's just been in the USA for 6 weeks. 
 The nursing home is Seattle is having about a mortality rate of 20%. Yes old and un-healthy will have about a 14 to 20% mortality rate if we don't stop exposure.
The infected healthy recover and many need strong antiviral cocktails to overcome and also some recover after two weeks.
 So let's say the infection rate, if we dont take aggressive measures to stop infection, is just twice as many will get some form of Corv19. Then use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu of 2%.
 That means 60,000 million will get I'll. And  120,000 will die. If we don't take agresive measures to stop the spread.
The USA has about 24,000,000 elderly, living in close quarters.

The Flu infected 3,000,000 US even with vaccine.

Corv19 will Infect theoretically anyone exposed with no immunity.

So let say we are lucky.  The flue infected 1% of the US with large numbers vaccinated.
Corv19 let say it infects 10% of us population. It is realistic since we have no immunity.
That comes to 30,000,000 people. And 2% will die. So that means 600,000 people will die.
600,000
600,000.
But that number is likely way wrong. Because Corv19 is killing at a 14% rate if you Are elderly or have some other serious health issue like heart disease or diabetes.
So let's say 10% are from the elderly group.
That is 24,000,000 x 10%=  2,400,000 elderly will die.

 That is just rough math if we can not stop the I infection rate to levels below the seasonal  Flu.
 Since we have no Vaccine, and no immunity yet severe measure will have to be input in place just like China did.

 If we don't do what China did, rough math says 3,000,000 will die.

 DISCLAIMER. I DID THIS MATH ON THE FLY. SO DONT THROW ME UNDER THE BUS.  I JUST IN A HURRY TO GE HIS POSTED.  THIS. UMBERS IS WHY THE WORLD Iẞ REACTING IN THOSE WAYS TO STOP THE SPREAD.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 06, 2020, 07:09:34 am
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

Seeing that you are from Puerto Rico, I'm surprised you have such a lax attitude regarding emergency preparedness.

I live in a part of the US that is prone to both tornadoes and ice storms and I once lost my power for two weeks due to an ice storm.  At the time I was lucky enough to have a bunch of freeze dried backpacking food as well as a backpacking stove and fuel.

I was basically an "accidental prepper."

Obviously, I would have survived without the emergency food but it proved to be pretty convenient.  I was able to stay at home and eat nice warm meals.  I didn't have to go out and fight the crowds.  I remember friends telling me about the madness at the stores.  One friend said he had to drive into the next state (about 70 miles away) just to buy a power generator.

Since then I have always had extra freeze dried food "just in case."

The food from Mountain House (the company that produces the best freeze dried food, in my opinion) has a shelf-life of 30 years so you can pretty much just put it in a cabinet and forget it.  Out of curiosity, I just checked their website and they are completely out of stock of everything they sell.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 06, 2020, 07:23:46 am
No such thing with COVID19 for a while.

I wonder ... if lets say low dose interferon and ribavirin worked as a prophylactic would we even be told? It's expensive and you can't just scale production on a dime.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 06, 2020, 08:15:24 am
Delivery drivers will deliver whatever you bought to the entrance of your complex, and you can go downstairs to the entrance of your complex and grab it.

Even in a non locked down city it is still prudent to purchase using delivery services just to reduce contact.
Why i should be doing this when i simply can have supplies in my closet. Outside food may become expensive, delivery drivers may charge a premium, and the delivered food may be contaminated. This is literally inviting the virus straight into your house.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on March 06, 2020, 11:30:18 am
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???

 :palm:

(Sorry about the delay, from 26th Feb...)
I don't understand the 'FacePalm' ?   Last week, on Australian TV News, (can't remember who),
it was stated that the Chinese Govt was disappointed with Australia limiting certain flights or
travel from certain regions. I found that irresponsible & offensive. Next few months will tell...  >:(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 06, 2020, 01:20:45 pm
Folding@Home has started a project to fight the virus.
https://foldingathome.org/2020/02/27/foldinghome-takes-up-the-fight-against-covid-19-2019-ncov/
Also keep in mind that you can still mine Curecoin and Foldingcoin, without reducing your contribution to science.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 06, 2020, 01:24:51 pm
.... Then use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu of 2%. ...

At least one problem there with your sums, the case fatality rate for regular seasonal flu is about 0.1%, not the 2% you quoted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 06, 2020, 03:08:55 pm
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

Seeing that you are from Puerto Rico, I'm surprised you have such a lax attitude regarding emergency preparedness.

I'd take that location with a pinch of salt if I was you.

[attachimg=1 width=170] [attachimg=2 width=170]

Two new users appear on 24th February and 3rd of March, both immediately move to high post counts for newbies, both from the same apparent country and a fixation on little tweety things? Now, I may be wrong, but I think I can smell someone's sock drawer being opened.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 06, 2020, 03:30:56 pm
Don't worry, done and dealt with.

Stocking up on food is not a bad idea. No need to go prepper mad with food for 2 years but a months supply of tins is not a bad call, just saw an interview with an "expert" who said that to have some food would be a good idea. My brexit buffer is now my covid 19 buffer.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 06, 2020, 03:37:43 pm
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
  • Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
  • Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
  • R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
  • Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
  • Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
  • R0 - 1.4-3.8

Well yes, thanks for correcting the terms. "Death rate" and "mortality rate", which we hear about a lot in the media, are improper terms here.
What was meant was the case-fatality ratio instead, which so far looks much higher for this virus than for regular "flu", but as I said, even that can't be completely figured out yet as (fortunately) the number of detected infected people is still very low compared to the figures we have for regular flu.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 06, 2020, 05:18:13 pm
How to interpret this? True/False?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic (https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 06, 2020, 05:36:19 pm
How to interpret this? True/False?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic (https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic)

As dumb conspiracy theory stuff.

Wuhan is a big city, it has the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As a parallel, London (another high population city) has the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine, which has the high biosecurity labs necessary for investigating diseases, as it does. (It also has Northwich Park MRC, several other governmental/quasi-governmental medical research establishments that handle viruses, lord knows how many Hospital pathology labs, and about a dozen Universities conducting microbiological research and god knows how many private research institutes). If there is an outbreak of disease in London, do we attribute it to shadowy bio-weapons research? No, we do not.

You could pick any major city in any major country in the world and come up with a similar candidate list of labs conducting virology research or handling live virus samples. Shadowy government bio-weapons labs tend to be situated in the arse end of nowhere, for obvious reasons.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 06, 2020, 05:38:10 pm
Can we have a Raspberry Pi version of this?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 06, 2020, 07:34:00 pm
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
  • Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
  • Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
  • R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
  • Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
  • Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
  • R0 - 1.4-3.8

Yes, I agree, "You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the 'case-fatality ratio' until an epidemic is over." You do not, however, wait "until the epidemic is over" to make decisions. If they are to be evidenced-based decisions, then they need to be based on the evidence that is available. I am not saying that you disagree with that or that you have said otherwise, I am emphasizing the point.

Take, for example, the graphs below (I have not attempted to validate the data):
[attachimg=1]
from:https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-by-age/ (https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-by-age/) Source:CDCC Most recent data available as of March 5, 2020Infographic by Sara Chodosh

The need for a presumptive overall mortality rate is less compelling than looking at where the deaths have occurred, "so far" - at least for the over 50 crowd.

If you are trying to decide whether to close schools, for example, do you decide based on the observed overall mortality rate so far? I might add that the under 50 crowd is less likely to have the "responsibility" of deciding whether to close a school or not.

I like that you brought up the terms and this is not a counter-post to what you have said, it it just expressing a very difficult and practical matter. I am glad that I do not have to make such decisions, but I want to see them as evidenced-based.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 06, 2020, 07:51:25 pm
I'd take that location with a pinch of salt if I was you.

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

Two new users appear on 24th February and 3rd of March, both immediately move to high post counts for newbies, both from the same apparent country and a fixation on little tweety things? Now, I may be wrong, but I think I can smell someone's sock drawer being opened.

Three users, actually.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 06, 2020, 07:56:44 pm
the two spare chicks got banned. He's Angrybird, anything else get's banned.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 06, 2020, 11:28:56 pm
Something I found interesting.

COVID-19 cases per million people (Populations from Google, cases from WHO Situation report 46):

Hubei Provence: 1145.6 (67592/59M)

South Korea: 123.2 (6284/51M)

Italy 64.3  (3858/60M)

All of China: 56.5 (80711/1428M)

Iran: 43.3 (3513/86M)

USA: 0.5  (148/330M)

One perspective that seems to be completely lacking is that you can't outrun exponential growth.

If nothing is done differently, this time next week there will be more cases outside China than inside - if anything the pace of growth seems to have picked up in the last week or so.

China started the Wuhan lockdown at about 2,300 cases (on 23 Jan), and it seems to have settled down at 80k cases...



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 06, 2020, 11:32:57 pm
NIH to start SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trial next week.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/06/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-7DHARJPWIFE5JPOWTVZU5SUUDQ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/06/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-7DHARJPWIFE5JPOWTVZU5SUUDQ)
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/clinical-trials-for-coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-place-at-seattle-research-institute/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/clinical-trials-for-coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-place-at-seattle-research-institute/)

Planned to run for some 13 months.


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 07, 2020, 06:39:01 pm
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 08, 2020, 04:13:50 am
That will probably happen here too. Give it a few weeks and the news media will find some new shiny thing to focus on, people will get tired of being cooped up at home and slide back toward complacency. The status quo is not sustainable at all, though I'm really enjoying the much lighter traffic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 08, 2020, 12:22:08 pm
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 08, 2020, 12:36:28 pm
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19

Not sure I get your point. We are observing an exponential growth of confirmed infections in many countries (e.g. doubling every 2 days in Germany and UK). If we let that trend continue unmitigated, hospitals would soon be unable to cope with even a small percentage of severe cases. Isn't that a plausible cause to instigate measures to try and slow down the spread?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 08, 2020, 12:55:15 pm
While the worlds media feeds on the covid-19 story it's a good time for governments to make unpopular announcements as they won't get as much coverage. The media is mare worried about filling it's air time and less worried about what it fills it with.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: EEVblog on March 08, 2020, 01:04:28 pm
While the worlds media feeds on the covid-19 story it's a good time for governments to make unpopular announcements as they won't get as much coverage. The media is mare worried about filling it's air time and less worried about what it fills it with.

Here in Australia the government is making a huge to-do about it and press conferencing every chance they get. They are trying to make up for the lack of s!#t given when the fires happened. Our PM was famously overseas on holidays and didn't seem to care and he copped a hiding for it in the media. His advisers are now no doubt telling him to milk the crap out of this crisis to win back Joe Public.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 08, 2020, 01:40:36 pm
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19

What, the old "This is good day to publish bad news" schtick?

If you're bored and want a good cynical laugh, compare the kind of press releases that any government department puts out at 09:00 on a Monday versus the ones they publish at 17:01 on a Friday.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 08, 2020, 09:28:25 pm
seen it locally where they decide to run a consultation process about some unimportant matter like splitting the county in two or privatizing the counties services or closing the local library. Funny that these things always come around in December. i can't possibly think why.....
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 08, 2020, 11:16:41 pm
I don't know about the media subterfuge angle or even the panic angle.

In the US, what has me very concerned is the lack of pressure by the news media to address (by address, I mean raise the public's awareness and anger) a horrendous lack of availability of testing kits. In fact, there is argument on whether or not there is a shortage of test kits https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486416-azar-contradicts-pence-says-theres-no-coronavirus-testing-kit-shortage (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/486416-azar-contradicts-pence-says-theres-no-coronavirus-testing-kit-shortage)  - If so, have tests been conducted in all at-risk populations (like senior homes)?  Where are the priorities for testing?- Who is in charge around here?! That is the kind of response that I would like to hear but it has not been a news item - right now there are some grumblings - e.g., https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve) .

Drive through testing has only now begun in Seattle. But how long it takes to get the swabs read is not in the article except for "as soon as possible". https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/08/813501632/seattle-health-care-system-offers-drive-through-coronavirus-testing-for-workers (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/08/813501632/seattle-health-care-system-offers-drive-through-coronavirus-testing-for-workers)

B&M Gates foundation is funding home test kits, but they are mail back swabs https://q13fox.com/2020/03/08/gates-foundation-to-soon-offer-home-testing-kits-for-coronavirus-in-seattle-area/ (https://q13fox.com/2020/03/08/gates-foundation-to-soon-offer-home-testing-kits-for-coronavirus-in-seattle-area/)

I am not an immunologist and I don't know how possible it is to have a truly rapid test kit that uses Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assays https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/lab/lab-testing.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/lab/lab-testing.html). Maybe the best that you can get right now are 10 zillion well plates.

But this is absolute must have for any kind of control

Edited to fix link

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 09, 2020, 12:12:13 am
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 09, 2020, 12:32:37 am
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?

I'm trying really hard to leave the politics out of it....on here I respect that for an electronics site. So, I will just say that I am very disappointed in the response so far and that I hope it gets a lot better very soon. I am optimistic that the response will get much better.

As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize. Somebody on here said something like, "it is hard to outrun exponential growth". This is especially true when you wait until after the starting gun to move.

OK, got it out of my system for now. Sorry.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 09, 2020, 12:39:18 am
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 09, 2020, 01:11:19 am
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//

Yes, I am aware of the situation. I was referring to my gut response - my inclination to respond in a manner that is disrespectful of the principle to leave politics out of the discussion.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 09, 2020, 01:16:55 am
Who is in charge around here?!

I heard Pence ...?

  Only for about the past week (since the 27th). Before that the CDC was in charge and apparently running very much open loop.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 09, 2020, 01:20:24 am
Search for "coronavirus politics" if you really want to find out. But no reason to bring it here. Those of us who care to know about relevant politics already know about them. Those of us who bury their head in the sand don't want to know at this time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 09, 2020, 01:27:37 am
The important thing is to keep big business going, to keep the share price high and maintain market share. Just ask the CEOs of most large corporations, the mega-rich, and Dr. Groeteschele from Fail Safe (1964). Why not just let everyone get the virus and and let the elderly die? Their use-by date has expired anyway. And they are not big spenders on Nike or the latest Apple products, so the losses are minimal. The share price - that is what is important!

Seriously though, it is fun to watch the greedy and amoral suffer as the share market crashes :-+. Bad news though is the greedy might pour more money back into the housing investment market, making homes more unaffordable for genuine families than ever :--.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 09, 2020, 01:29:05 am
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that  vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ?  :-//

   Bud, I don't think that that was directed at you. I think the previous poster was expressing his own dissatisfaction at the US's lack of testing and other failures with regard to handling the early outbreaks in the US.  I posted some similar days ago when I pointed out that the US had only tested 44something people whereas VietNam had tested over 1700 and South Korea had tested well over 100,000.  But to be fair, I will say this was when the CDC was in charge and before Pence was appointed to take charge.

   For the most part, everyone on this forum has done a good job of discussing the facts without veering off into politics. I hope we can keep it that way.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 07:57:36 am
I don't think investors are too bothered other than those involved in short term profiteering. In the long term things will come back. I heard a guy on the radio the other day saying just that. He was not bothered because his investment business works in the years and decades not the 1 week panic mode.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 09, 2020, 09:52:43 am
This is pretty close.  Here is a good primer of what R0 is.
Remember that R0 is not a rate.  It does not have time dimension in it.
Leo
As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 09, 2020, 09:56:05 am
I am all for social justice but you probably do not know that most of society's pension money is invested in stock markets.
Be careful what you wish for.
Leo
Seriously though, it is fun to watch the greedy and amoral suffer as the share market crashes :-+.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 10:39:23 am
Quite, not my problem as at 36 plenty of time to recover. As much as i hate the stocks and shares model it will be the source of my pension.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 09, 2020, 01:52:50 pm
This is pretty close.  Here is a good primer of what R0 is.
Remember that R0 is not a rate.  It does not have time dimension in it.
Leo
As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.

Yes, you are right and I was being sloppy. What I meant, of course, is that the idea is NOT to have the expected number of secondary infections determined by R0 by introducing quarantine into the population in contrast to a "completely susceptible" population, which the R0 assumes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/
 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 09, 2020, 03:15:06 pm
Seems grim

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 09, 2020, 04:43:16 pm
There does seem to be a remarkable disconnect between what happened in China, and what the West were expecting. It seems that China is faraway and a distinct type of culture, so while we were LOLing at the Chinese building hospitals in 10 days, and declaring "war on Coronavirus", our mindset seemed to be "won't happen here, we are different".

We may will be different, but not in ways that affect a virus. The Chinese response was drastic and quite remarkable, and should have been a major heads up. In several ways they messed up the initial response, and the animal-human phase appears to have been overlooked, but then they got serious about it. Even with that warning, our governments have dillied about, and the public (no doubt prompted by our wonderful "free" media) go into panic mode.

There are interesting political angles which I won't go into. But it would be a good idea if the money that was chopped from budgets aimed at preventing pandemic outbreaks was restored... but what will probably happen is that after muddling through, people will say "that wasn't so bad" and go back to business as usual.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 05:30:11 pm
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 09, 2020, 07:12:08 pm
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.

Home birth?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 07:17:25 pm
Yes I had wondered if they would be organized for that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 09, 2020, 07:22:06 pm
Yes I had wondered if they would be organized for that.

Anyone can request it in the UK,  the midwives come to your house.  So few people do it, that you will get far more attention than at a hospital.   You have to request it well in advance...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 09, 2020, 07:29:22 pm
Sounds like the best thing. With hospitals cleaned by contractors employing staff on minimum wage I have no wish to have her hanging around in a hospital that is full of people being treated for Covid-19, with the best will in the world once they go full overload cross contamination will occur.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 09, 2020, 11:28:52 pm
Decent tracking site here - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 09, 2020, 11:46:39 pm
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.

China continues to report unrealistically low numbers of new daily cases. Just 4 today.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 09, 2020, 11:56:52 pm
Sounds like the best thing. With hospitals cleaned by contractors employing staff on minimum wage I have no wish to have her hanging around in a hospital that is full of people being treated for Covid-19, with the best will in the world once they go full overload cross contamination will occur.

Under normal circumstances, home birth is much more dangerous than hospital birth.  I don't envy anyone having to balance that against coronavirus risk.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 10, 2020, 03:30:07 am
All of the roadside births I've heard about at the hands of cabbies or police officers have all had happy endings.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 10, 2020, 10:56:07 am
Italy now on countrywide quarantine. Whether you believe the Chinese figures or not, the ROW is really taking off. I expect more national quarantines like Italy.

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106369525-1583802252667covid-global.png?v=1583802171&w=740&h=416)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BU508A on March 10, 2020, 09:06:48 pm
Time for a smile or two:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYTzX9JCbDY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYTzX9JCbDY)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5kc-kjlcDo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5kc-kjlcDo)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 10, 2020, 09:38:21 pm
those are hilarious.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Weston on March 11, 2020, 12:47:10 am
Universities in the USA started moving to online instruction last Wednesday. Today they started announcing that undergrads should not come back to campus after spring break, possibly not returning until next fall. I know that MIT, Stanford, and Harvard have implemented these policies, I assume other schools are also doing so.

Not that I really interact with the undergrads, but campus is going to be pretty quiet for the next few months and its going to be basically impossible for any lab or project based classes to be offered.

Given that this looks like its going to lead into an economic recession its a pretty good time to be a grad student. Guaranteed job security!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 11, 2020, 03:15:25 pm
At the end of last month I took a look at the US case count to try to get an idea of how quickly this disease would be spreading.  I just wanted to be able to make some plans regarding travel.  So, I watched the numbers from the worldometer website.  I found that the US case count doubled on a very regular pace.  From March 1 I started recording the number each day and plotting it.  It's amazing how predictible it has been.  Since March 1 in the US it has been very tightly tracking an exponential growth pattern.  The number of cases is doubling every 2.4 days.  On this growth path, the number of US cases will reach over 420,000 by the end of March.  However, in the US , bureaucratic and financial hurdles are resulting in very little testing being done.  So the actual number of cases is likely much higher than the available numbers.  If more extensive testing is done it will likely drive the numbers to go above the projection.  If significant actions are taken to slow the spread, the data will track below the curve.  So far, neither of these are seen in the data.

So, when will we see an inflection in the curve -- at the latest?  Epidemiologists are saying to expect 60% to 80% infection rate before herd immunity takes effect.  On the current growth path for the US, that will occur between April 21 and April 23.  But, considering that the case count is likely higher than we know and that fear will probably grip the population and policy leaders before that prompting them to take some actions to slow the spread, I suspect we'll see an inflection point in the US in mid April.  Unfortunately the inflection point will not be the peak.  I think it's safe to say this epidemic will be with us for more than the next couple of months.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 11, 2020, 05:15:30 pm
PANDEMIC!

Yes WHO finally shifted their stance from epidemic to pandemic. There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground. Bottom line is, they don't want people to give up fighting since there was still "hope" when it was being treated as an epidemic. At this point, you might think resistance if futile, but even as a pandemic (which everyone already knew was where it was going), it is still good to fight it like an epidemic to slow down it's progression. This will be difficult in many liberal democracies but it may eventually come down to Italian-like lockdowns (I doubt we will ever allow Chinese-like lockdowns) which is going to be devastating either way.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 11, 2020, 05:27:35 pm
i have food for a month. They have been compelled to change their stance as governments have an eye and a half on their corporate bosses and the stock market and not enough on the pandemic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 11, 2020, 05:39:09 pm
PANDEMIC!

Yes WHO finally shifted their stance from epidemic to pandemic. There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground. Bottom line is, they don't want people to give up fighting since there was still "hope" when it was being treated as an epidemic. At this point, you might think resistance if futile, but even as a pandemic (which everyone already knew was where it was going), it is still good to fight it like an epidemic to slow down it's progression. This will be difficult in many liberal democracies but it may eventually come down to Italian-like lockdowns (I doubt we will ever allow Chinese-like lockdowns) which is going to be devastating either way.

The prior H1N1 outbreak was officially classified as a pandemic by the WHO. Just because it has met the criteria to be labelled a pandemic rather than an epidemic means only one thing, that much/most of the world is involved. Being a 'pandemic' is not a necessarily a question of seriousness or scale, just of geographical spread. I'm being pernickety precisely because the word 'pandemic' makes people use 18pt type, exclamation marks and start running around in circles panicking. By definition, all of you (unless we have some 11 year old members) lived through the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and you're still here.

Quote
There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground.

Much more likely is that they have a set of formal criteria that have to be met before something moves along the scale of nomenclature from outbreak=>epidemic=>pandemic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 11, 2020, 06:00:17 pm
It's now quite widespread around the world. We got to this stage because we all went on holiday. I have a colleague that still expects to go to Austria at the end of the month  |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 11, 2020, 06:06:29 pm
I'm being pernickety precisely because the word 'pandemic' makes people use 18pt type, exclamation marks and start running around in circles panicking. By definition, all of you (unless we have some 11 year old members) lived through the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and you're still here.

Yes agreed. My understanding is that the classification change also affects how governments treat the outbreak, how funding is distributed, how they mobilize their health systems. It can change their policies toward travel, focusing their help internationally or bunkering down domestically, and so on. So now as we shift towards pandemic-management there will be different strategies employed, none of which involve stockpiling of toilet paper (I hope).  :-DD

All reports seem to indicate that like H1N1, it will probably end up infecting 70% of the population and that the vast majority (80%) of people will experience mild to moderate cold-like symptoms which eventually they recover from, with the remaining 20% having severe symptoms possibly requiring hospitalization. In this smaller subset of people, mostly immunologically fragile or breathing-compromised, we will see the possibly 2-3% of pneumonia-related deaths. While H1N1 had a purported death rate of 0.5%, most countries are already experiencing near-capacity health-care system utilization with many under-funded... so it will breach capacity unless things are slowed down.

So no need to panic but this is going to stress out hospitals for sure. Being in Canada and seeing how stressed to the brink our government-run health care system already is, and having quite a number of doctor and nurse friends, I am hearing from them what nightmare we might expect in the coming months if things keep "tragectorying" the way they have been so far. Nothing to do but wait and watch.  :popcorn:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 11, 2020, 06:24:24 pm
The Uk will do badly once it spreads. accident and emmergency are always on the backfoot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 11, 2020, 06:58:20 pm
Well N10  have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.

Both young women and babies (10 years and less) are low risk categories and by May it the virus should be much weaker.

COVID-19 is just a (one of the largest) bunch of RNA code enclosed in a protein shell.
It requires the host cell machinery to reproduce and doesn't live long outside a host. The hotter and wetter (RH) is the air the shorter is its life (in the air or on various surfaces).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 11, 2020, 07:01:13 pm
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.

China continues to report unrealistically low numbers of new daily cases. Just 4 today.

given the harsh measures taken those are not unrealistic
I rather expect lots of unreported cases in the US (and even worse in Russia)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DBecker on March 11, 2020, 07:11:58 pm
All of the roadside births I've heard about at the hands of cabbies or police officers have all had happy endings.

Selection bias.  Quick births at full term are usually healthy mothers and babies.  Multiple days of pre-labor and labor is correlated with problems.

Similarly planned home births in areas with good health care tend to have good outcomes because people with higher risk don't select that option.  Home births with no other options have worse statistics  because there are usually no good fall-back plans.

The statistics for Covid-19 are uncertain because we can't separate the selection effects.  Perhaps we have 10x symptom-free cases for every serious case.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 11, 2020, 07:35:47 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 11, 2020, 07:52:59 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)

Long testimony, scary to read but perhaps a glimpse into what awaits us. Let's hope we have the fortitude and foresight to delay or stop this tidal wave before it gets to that point.

Just as an aside... I am in the health professions and ordered (along with a bunch of unrelated medical supplies) some masks from a medical supply company to health professionals/private clinics. I received everything BUT the masks order which are indefinite back-order. I have a doctor friend of ours that is in a private multi-doctor clinic and she had to drive 1 hour away to buy a box of masks.

So you need to prioritize masks going to people in the community who have high "Bacon numbers"... i.e. people who are potentially in contact with many other people throughout the day and in close proximity (dentists, doctors, etc), as they would be a "node" with high connectivity of potential transmission. Having said that, a lawyer in New York apparently is being implicated as being such a "node" with multiple cases being tracked back to that office. Blocking as many of these high-connectivity nodes would be more effective I would think. Computer-modelling this may gain useful insight into the best places to distribute such equipment and the best strategies for containment when limited supplies are available.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 11, 2020, 07:58:19 pm
Selection bias.

My comment was merely a statement of my experience, nothing more. I've never seen a person with purple skin is not the same as saying there are no people with purple skin. But I actually saw a guy on TV that did have purple skin, or maybe it was more of a blue. Maybe if I'd never seen the segment I truly would not believe people could have purple skin. Maybe the media is biased and does not report of botched curbside births.  :-//

I'd not want to have a pregnant sister in the same situation right now either.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 11, 2020, 08:00:44 pm
by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 11, 2020, 08:05:51 pm
However, the areas that got it first are going to recover first. So China is going to be back to work sooner than the US, which is just starting to react, despite Trumps assurances that everything will be ok.

(I have food for maybe three months, although the last month won't have much variety.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 11, 2020, 08:22:02 pm
German Chancellor Merkel on Covid:
https://berlinspectator.com/2020/03/11/merkel-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-pass-the-test/
"Therefore 60 to 70 percent of all people in Germany could be infected."
aka "What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 11, 2020, 08:44:05 pm
by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/)

"The virus should be much weaker" and 'the virus is less likely to be transmitted in warmer weather' - the latter being what Snopes considers - are not the same thing.

There's a real possibility that the virus in circulation may be less virulent by May by a combination of two reasons: (1) Coronaviruses are highly mutable, there's a very high probability of new variants emerging during a pandemic, (2) viruses/bacteria/parasites that kill their hosts are less likely to spread than less lethal variants. This was actually seen, and confirmed, during one of the earlier flu pandemics (I don't offhand remember which one) where later in the pandemic the original flu variant died off and a mutated, less virulent, variant continued to spread - the death rate fell while infection rates continued at the same level. Although this is a real possibility, it's not a effect that any plan to control the disease ought to rely on.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 11, 2020, 08:59:55 pm
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemics in the northern hemisphere usually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 11, 2020, 09:16:47 pm
The cloudy vs. sunny days in the spring may represent days vs. hours of the virus activity on a surface.

PS: Italy closes all stores except pharmacies and food outlets
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 11, 2020, 11:07:16 pm
People should learn their history and not be as ignorant as the morons in Thailand wearing the swastika.

The 1919 Spanish 'flu (actually it started in the USA) came in three waves. It was the third wave that wiped out most of the victims. The Chinese communist party is beating its chest about how great totalitarian rule is, but at least another wave will very likely follow, much worse than the first one. How these serial liars are going to face up to the Chinese people if and when it happens will be interesting.

The WHO just announced the pandemic. Monday might be a good time to buy stocks with a long term view.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 11, 2020, 11:19:03 pm
Because I found it very thought provoking, here is the RNA for one of the Australian samples :

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT007544 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT007544)

At ~30,000 bases, that's about at most 8 kilobytes of information, that can kill thousands (maybe soon millions?) of people, and billions of $.

PS. If felling uber-geeky you can also cut and paste part of the sequence (a line or two) into BLAST (see link on top right) and see what else matches...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 11, 2020, 11:28:00 pm
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemics in the northern hemisphere usually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).
Higher humidity. With lower humidity as in the winter the nasaldrops loose their moist content faster and the particles travel larger distances. That is why you should keep a further distance with lower humidity than high humidity where the heavier particles will drop sooner and travel a shorter distance.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 11, 2020, 11:28:29 pm
PS: Italy closes all stores except pharmacies and food outlets

In the rest of Europe they are still at stage 1: don't worry, 80% only show mild symptoms.
Don't forget to wash your hands, and no, masks are not needed (don't but them, we need them)

EDIT: Apparently, other parts of the world are still at stage 0: "lalalalalala it's just the flu, I don't want to look at numbers".

P.S.
Dave, "Amid growing suggestions that ministers have acted too slowly in seeking to combat the virus – the editor of the Lancet medical journal accused them of “playing roulette” with people’s lives"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-cases-trump-us-travel-ban-europe-pandemic-delay-phase-a9396186.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-cases-trump-us-travel-ban-europe-pandemic-delay-phase-a9396186.html)
You might want to try to delete that, as well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 12, 2020, 01:26:32 am
At the end of last month I took a look at the US case count to try to get an idea of how quickly this disease would be spreading.  I just wanted to be able to make some plans regarding travel.  So, I watched the numbers from the worldometer website.  I found that the US case count doubled on a very regular pace.  From March 1 I started recording the number each day and plotting it.  It's amazing how predictible it has been.  Since March 1 in the US it has been very tightly tracking an exponential growth pattern.  The number of cases is doubling every 2.4 days.  On this growth path, the number of US cases will reach over 420,000 by the end of March.  However, in the US , bureaucratic and financial hurdles are resulting in very little testing being done.  So the actual number of cases is likely much higher than the available numbers.  If more extensive testing is done it will likely drive the numbers to go above the projection.  If significant actions are taken to slow the spread, the data will track below the curve.  So far, neither of these are seen in the data.

So, when will we see an inflection in the curve -- at the latest?  Epidemiologists are saying to expect 60% to 80% infection rate before herd immunity takes effect.  On the current growth path for the US, that will occur between April 21 and April 23.  But, considering that the case count is likely higher than we know and that fear will probably grip the population and policy leaders before that prompting them to take some actions to slow the spread, I suspect we'll see an inflection point in the US in mid April.  Unfortunately the inflection point will not be the peak.  I think it's safe to say this epidemic will be with us for more than the next couple of months.
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination. The latter is out of the question (vaccine is at least 12-18 month behind). So the actual spread will continue until most people get infected.

As for tracking test results... In open countries, like the US, there is the limit on how many positive tests the country can report each day (determined by the number of available test kits, lab throughput, qualification criteria determined by bureaucrats, etc.).

For example, 2 weeks before now the US had limited ability to perform tests:  January through end of February they performed only ~1,500 tests in total in few CDC labs across the country, and that yielded few dozens domestic positive tests. Once million test kits were provide to health authorities of 50 states over the past few weeks, the number of positive tests in the US started climbing exponentially. This does not mean that there was no exponential community spread before the test kits were provide to states. The system was simply not able to gauge that spread with 1,500 tests they performed in 2 month.

Sooner or later the speed of the spread will outpace the current testing capacity in the US. The statistics will start flattening out in the US, but the exponential spread will continue.

As for authoritarian regimes - you simply cannot trust the numbers they produce. Recent figures from China are laughable, and they cannot be rationally explained. Another example is Russia. Russia has long history of manipulating its numbers. For example, in 2017 Russia reported 432 mortality case from flu and common cold. In the same year, CDC estimated mortality rate of 61,000 (95% CI 46K-95K) from flu in the US. Either vodka and cabbage are efficacious measured against flu, or Russian state-owned statistics agency spread misinformation. And, surprise surprise, the same agency reports laughable numbers of Covid-2019 cases in Russia now...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 12, 2020, 01:37:39 am
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.

There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.

Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.

I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.

Quote
As for tracking test results... In open countries, like the US, there is the limit on how many positive tests the country can report each day (determined by the number of available test kits, lab throughput, qualification criteria determined by bureaucrats, etc.).

 :bullshit: - there is just a lack of willingness to do so. A resistance to the decentralization of power.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 12, 2020, 01:48:04 am
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.

There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.

Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.

I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.
Because of what we know about the virus (asymptomatic spread, and that the virus can survive for many days outside the host) - I don’t believe that R0 can be dropped below 1.0 by hygiene and social isolation measures alone.

As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 12, 2020, 01:50:35 am
It is because the majority of cases are misconstrued as a common cold or flu, and there are not enough testing kits available, that nobody can really know whether they actually DO have a common cold/flu (which has a 0.5% mortality or lower) or if they have COVID-19 (with it's 3%+ mortality). Therefore, community spread is inevitable if life goes on as usual. The majority of the population will continue to work through a cold and possibly a flu, spreading it to everyone else in their workplace, or students in school, going to social gatherings and so on.

One thing COVID-19 has demonstrated is that it is very contagious and while not particularly deadly (compared to SARS 10%, MERS 50%, Ebola 90% and so on) the fact that it can disseminate to so many people over a short rate of time, and has several times the death rate of the flu (although the number may be overblown because we don't include milder unknown cases), it can still be devastating to our healthcare systems. We already have 30,000 - 60,000 people die each year from the flu, despite vaccination attempts and only a 0.5% mortality (somewhere less than 1% and some say as little as 0.1%).

Now we have a virus that is known to be more deadly than flu by at least several times (estimates vary from 2-3x to over 10x) and absolutely no vaccine, no immunity, and added ON TOP OF all the other cold/flu viruses still out there. So we are battling multiple viruses and particularly nasty ones at that superimposed on each other. Yes the majority of people will be fine but those that aren't will completely overload our healthcare systems. To prevent the collateral damage and keep healthcare systems intact for all the other problems people face, these somewhat draconian measures are the only way to help delay/prevent the inevitable... so at least things "ease in" a little more slowly. Will it cause the "case growth rate" to plateau and reach <1.0x, probably not. But lower rate is better than higher.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 12, 2020, 02:26:09 am
Today....
EU-US travel banned restricted for 30 Days.
NBA cancels all games after tonight until ?

Seems like it was just a few days ago, it was "I'm not worried at all" and "I've heard we will have a vaccine in 3-4 months".

I don't think it is panic at all, I think that denial and wishful thinking eventually gives way to the harshness of reality. Still, I am optimistic, I think that, in the US, by May, we will be seeing a very different picture.

Like you and everyone else, there are only a few things that I can do and not do, but I can assure you that I am going to hold those that I believe have performed in, what I can only describe as shamefully incompetent manner, accountable...in the voting booth.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 12, 2020, 02:55:59 am
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 12, 2020, 03:15:38 am
As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.

Dear armchair foreign dictatorship governments expert,

can you fix the chaos and shit in your own backyard before embarking on a global war on reports from other countries?

For a reason I think you can't.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: raptor1956 on March 12, 2020, 03:27:49 am
I wonder when the other shoe is going to drop in the USA and likely in many other nations that have dropped the ball on this virus.  We've been hearing about testing kits in the millions for a while now but still the number of people tested in the US in total is less than other parts of the world test in a day.  The lawyer at the center of the New Rochelle outbreak commuted to Manhattan on public transportation for days after being effected so it seems highly likely that NYC will see an outbreak far greater the New Rochelle.

The fact that face masks are hard to come by and that medical professionals are finding them hard to get is stark testimony to the shortsightedness of too many these days -- how is it that they have so little stock of items that are critical in times like this.  Sadly, the response was not ... we need more masks ASAP ...  it was ... you don't need them -- tell that to the Chinese.  When you lie to the public but do so for what seems to be a reasonable cause you are still lying to the public.  The idea that a virus that you get by breathing in exhaled droplets is unaffected by wearing is mask is ludicrous and those that say that lose there credibility.  This is not the time for medical professionals to lose credibility.

In western nations where money matters more than life there are many workers that either go to work or go without a paycheck and risk losing there job -- for them the decision is simple ... if I'm still ambulatory I'm going to work.  Business owners are not inclined to increase paid time off, even big businesses worth a trillion.  If people at risk keep going to work when them should stay home because staying home means losing a paycheck or a job then the idea of social isolation is but a joke.

But as bad as all that is the fact that we may well be at this place for 6 months or even more than a year will be a test of the planet right up there with the World Wars, indeed, this is a third World War of sorts.


Brian
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 12, 2020, 03:41:38 am
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

I'm not trying to pick a fight or even be horribly contentious, but what is panic and what is an[IN]excusable lack of planning, implementation and clear and concise direction?

To me, buying up sanitizer is NOT panic, it is entirely rational. Communicating sound changes in "public" hygiene is not panic. Explaining why washing your hands is so important, is not panic. Trying to force people to not touch their face, and thinking that is going to make the difference - is poor messaging - especially since we can all watch video of the people telling us not to touch your face actually touching their face as they are telling us not to do so (it is really hard for humans not to touch their face and that is hardly news).

Botching up testing instead of ramping up capability in the FREAKING MONTH that we had and after earlier experience (SARS) [https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-coronavirus-testing/ (https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-coronavirus-testing/) ]is not panic, it is a failure in performance.

Botching up the messaging around testing and botching up anything remotely like a reasonable communication of facts, and instead changing the message evry few days, contradicting what was stated earlier and doing it over and over again is not, in itself panic, it creates confusion and chaos and.....panic.

Planning on the fly for something like this is not going to cut it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 12, 2020, 03:52:06 am
If you are interested in looking at the family tree of the COVID-19 causing virus, along with where it came from or spread to then have I been shown the site for you!

https://nextstrain.org/ncov



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 12, 2020, 03:56:37 am
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

We can blame ourselves. For two reasons:

1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience. I try to buy Australian made wherever possible. But with electronic components, that is impossible because nothing is made here. Hard to believe we once made transistors and 7400 series IC's right here in Melbourne. https://www.radiomuseum.org/dsp_hersteller_detail.cfm?Company_id=14523 (https://www.radiomuseum.org/dsp_hersteller_detail.cfm?Company_id=14523)

2. We were warned for the last 10 years by scientists that a global pandemic was imminent, and that global travel would be a major factor for a perfect storm. Almost no-one listened. This virus should be of no surprise really. Its a bit bloody late now. I listened to the pandemic warnings, hence I have plenty of masks I bought FIVE YEARS AGO.  It was our Prime Minister Scott Morrison's stupid comments that triggered the panic buying of toilet paper and other necessities.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: raptor1956 on March 12, 2020, 04:45:31 am
1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience.

What slave labor? I'm not aware of any other than mandatory labor in jails, which they get paid significantly less than open labor market.


Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.  Many are domestic workers working in the homes of the wealthy, many are sex workers tricked into it, many others are forced to work in small and medium sized business -- many coming from China but Central America as well.  So, comments about slavery in China seem a bit misplaced when the western world is not without its issues.


Brian
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 12, 2020, 04:49:02 am
It looks like Tom Hanks and his spouse have COVID-19 acquired when shooting a film in Australia (Dave I hope you are staying safe):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html)

(https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/tom-1.jpg?w=500&h=280&crop=1)

Once Kevin Bacon gets it... all of Hollywood is screwed!!!   :-DD

https://oracleofbacon.org/ (https://oracleofbacon.org/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 12, 2020, 04:55:11 am
I try to buy Australian made wherever possible.

Boomerang ?  :-DD

Genuine Aborigin's made is much more expensive, there must be cheaper China made alternative too tight ?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 12, 2020, 08:53:42 am

It looks like Tom Hanks and his spouse have COVID-19 acquired when shooting a film in Australia (Dave I hope you are staying safe):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html)

(https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/tom-1.jpg?w=500&h=280&crop=1)

Once Kevin Bacon gets it... all of Hollywood is screwed!!!   :-DD

https://oracleofbacon.org/ (https://oracleofbacon.org/)

Filming in Australia on the cheap during a worldwide outbreak, is like a box of chocolates..  :scared:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Moshly on March 12, 2020, 08:54:26 am
If you want no BS reporting I seriously suggest everybody check out Dr. John Campbell on youtube

update from the 11th ->
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzXQ6Bu9JVI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzXQ6Bu9JVI)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 12, 2020, 10:28:04 am
I try to buy Australian made wherever possible.

Boomerang ?  :-DD

Genuine Aborigin's made is much more expensive, there must be cheaper China made alternative too tight ?

Try furniture. You pay more, get much better quality and the furniture is not fumigated. Quality is remembered long after the price is forgotten.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 12, 2020, 12:45:42 pm
The subway is crowd enough to crush people into pancakes. That I learned the hard way on line 4.

Somebody cover blueskull in butter and maple syrup, then perhaps the 'merkins will like him.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 12, 2020, 01:25:13 pm
If you want no BS reporting I seriously suggest everybody check out Dr. John Campbell on youtube

update from the 11th ->


I like Dr John's style, very informative. Some of his maths is wrong but that's a minor quibble.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 12, 2020, 02:42:17 pm
You can't stop it anymore, everyone will get it sooner or later.
The only thing is to keep the numbers steady without extreme outburst that overflow the healthcare system,
so that for those vulnerable who really need good healthcare they still can get it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 12, 2020, 03:12:36 pm
There is a saying the Generals are always fighting the last war, the same is true here. The epidemic action plans for emerging new diseases are based on experience with MERS, SARS, etc, but Covid-19 is not SARS or MERS.

It is expected that novel pathogens are detected in animal populations first, these are culled before animal to human transmission occurs. That did not happen with Covid-19, human-human transmission seem to appear out of nowhere. It is expected that contact tracing and screening travellers is sufficient for containment, that didn't work with Covid-19.

Missteps were certainly made by several countries handling the outbreak, but many people are blaming them for poor planning or execution, when the real problem is the particular viral characteristics don't match what was planned for. Hopefully we will learn for the next time.

Unfortunately, natural selection will always create things that evade our attempts to control them, it's what Nature does and she has had billions of years of practice.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DBecker on March 12, 2020, 03:15:52 pm

Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.  Many are domestic workers working in the homes of the wealthy, many are sex workers tricked into it, many others are forced to work in small and medium sized business -- many coming from China but Central America as well.  So, comments about slavery in China seem a bit misplaced when the western world is not without its issues.

You should mix up the news sources you believe.

There are very few workers trapped in those conditions.  Sure, they show up in the news, but that is because they are the rare exception rather than the rule.  And media (rightly) puts the stories at the top (complete with clickbait headlines for weeks).

H1B workers are much more numerous, but that is far from slavery.  Just exploitation.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 03:18:40 pm
Another day, another data point as the virus steadily marches up the exponential curve here in the US.  As of yesterday fear has suddenly prompted policy makers into action.  There are new international travel restrictions.  Universities are closing.  Grade schools are winding down activities and telling parents to prepare for closures.  Finally we have policy makers responding.  Unfortunately, it may be too late.  There are still lots of misleading instructions and advice being put out by community, press, and government leaders.  Still many are saying the risk is low.  Clearly few understand what 'exponential' means.  If they did, they would see that on the current growth track the spread could result in about a million deaths in the US by about 30 days from now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: unknownparticle on March 12, 2020, 03:43:24 pm

Also, let's not forget about ~40,000 traffic fatalities each year (USA) that we are completely OK with...

Traffic accidents aren't infectious though, just a matter of human error, coincidence and statistical events.  I did have to check that figure as I gasped when I read it!!  There are less than 2000 annually in the UK and given that the population of the USA is about 5 times that of the UK, it makes that number horrific!  Especially as we have massively more congested roads, higher highway speed limits and generally more aggressive drivers. Does it include gunshot road rage victims?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 12, 2020, 03:56:34 pm

Today, The  "Galapagar Marquise's and Equalty Minister has given positive in COVID19 and her couple the Galapagar Marquess's and 4th viceminister is at quarantine. The trouble is this couple may have infected  to 23 minister the three viceministes , the president , until the Queen and the King.  On resume, we are on a ship without captain.

Furthermore, the chinese have fear the spaniards and they begi to run away to China :wtf: :wtf:.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 12, 2020, 04:04:32 pm
https://www.outsideonline.com/2410336/everest-china-side-closes-coronavirus (https://www.outsideonline.com/2410336/everest-china-side-closes-coronavirus)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 12, 2020, 04:20:23 pm
Another day, another data point as the virus steadily marches up the exponential curve here in the US.  As of yesterday fear has suddenly prompted policy makers into action.  There are new international travel restrictions.  Universities are closing.  Grade schools are winding down activities and telling parents to prepare for closures.  Finally we have policy makers responding.  Unfortunately, it may be too late.  There are still lots of misleading instructions and advice being put out by community, press, and government leaders.  Still many are saying the risk is low.  Clearly few understand what 'exponential' means.  If they did, they would see that on the current growth track the spread could result in about a million deaths in the US by about 30 days from now.

Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 12, 2020, 04:28:24 pm
Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.

I would recommend against combining a linear and a log scale in the same chart. And I certainly recommend against showing a spline interpolation through set of discrete datapoints, even more so when done without showing the underlying datapoints themselves. That (a) suggests a resolution which is not there, and (b) suggests spurious dips and peaks, which are artefacts from the interpolation.

Electronics content: Rigol is apparently guilty of the latter sin in their scopes.  ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 05:24:31 pm
Quote
Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.

I'm using the data from the worldometer website.  We have to take the data with a grain of salt because we know it's understated due to limited testing.  But to get a glimpse of what's to come, it does the job.  (Though I sometimes wish I hadn't looked and seen such a frightening picture.) 

Those who criticize the chart are missing the point.  This data is publicly available and anyone can use it to make their own projection in whatever format they prefer.  It doesn't change the fact that spread is exponential and many people may suffer and/or die.

We all need to recognize what's coming and do what we can to protect our families, communities, and ourselves.  Our only control over this plague is to slow the spread -- which will reduce the strain on health services and, thus, save lives.  Each and every one of us can take actions to slow the spread.  Trying to assign blame will do nothing to slow the spread.  Cooperation, improved hygienic practices and social isolation are our greatest tools at this point.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 12, 2020, 05:43:47 pm
Sadly governments are doing very badly. In the UK it has been announced that we are moving from the "containment" stage to the "delay" stage. Well fuck me if someone can tell me what he "containment" plan was other than to do nothing I'd be very grateful! So far as i can tell it was do nothing but ask people to stop panic buying loo roll. Public Health England, the people telling the government how to stop this are having a mass gathering of employees from more than one location for training. I mean are we stupid or something? apparently yes!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 12, 2020, 05:55:49 pm
Those who criticize the chart are missing the point.  This data is publicly available and anyone can use it to make their own projection in whatever format they prefer.  It doesn't change the fact that spread is exponential and many people may suffer and/or die.

I was only criticizing metrologist's way of plotting the data. Didn't mean to question your point, and I don't think I said anything to that effect.

I have been looking at the German data in much the same way, and have pointed out the (so far) unmitigated exponential growth in a couple of posts here. In Germany, the rate has even been slightly higher -- doubling pretty exactly every 2.0 days. No idea whether that difference is due to a higher rate of tested and detected cases, a significant influx of infected travellers from Italy, or other reasons.

The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 12, 2020, 06:10:02 pm
Sadly governments are doing very badly.

It takes special "government grade idiocy" to handle this as badly as some governments have been doing. I think so far, of those I have heard about, the US takes the biscuit:

Quote from: https://boingboing.net/2020/03/11/censoring-coronavirus.html
The Donald Trump White House told the federal Department of Health and Human Services to classify all information from top-level coronavirus meetings.

The decision to keep all coronavirus deliberations classified made it hard for public health and medical professionals to access vital information. The restricted flow hampered the U.S. government’s response to the contagion, Reuters reports, citing four Trump administration officials.

“The officials said that dozens of classified discussions about such topics as the scope of infections, quarantines and travel restrictions have been held since mid-January in a high-security meeting room at the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS),” report Wednesday Aram Roston and Marisa Taylor at Reuters:

    Staffers without security clearances, including government experts, were excluded from the interagency meetings, which included video conference calls, the sources said.

    “We had some very critical people who did not have security clearances who could not go,” one official said. “These should not be classified meetings. It was unnecessary.”

    The sources said the National Security Council (NSC), which advises the president on security issues, ordered the classification.”This came directly from the White House,” one official said.

    The White House insistence on secrecy at the nation’s premier public health organization, which has not been previously disclosed, has put a lid on certain information - and potentially delayed the response to the crisis.


In the UK it has been announced that we are moving from the "containment" stage to the "delay" stage. Well fuck me if someone can tell me what he "containment" plan was other than to do nothing I'd be very grateful!

Sorry, can't t help there. As far as I can tell the government didn't have a plan. Fortunately the NHS was a bit more on the ball. I think the "containment" state is just a bit of back-naming for "We'll contain ourselves until someone tells us what to do".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 12, 2020, 06:14:33 pm
My place of work they shifted to two teams work, one team may work at the office on even weeks the other on odd weeks. Temperature check at the entrance, cafeteria closed, not allowed to use the keyboard and mouse on the shared office space, no meetings >5 people, and work as much as possible from home.
Never had this in 25 yrs on the job.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 12, 2020, 06:15:01 pm
Well I think Trump pretty much declared himself an expert in covid-19 so, sorted!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 12, 2020, 06:20:23 pm
My place of work they shifted to two teams work, one team may work at the office on even weeks the other on odd weeks. Temperature check at the entrance, cafeteria closed, not allowed to use the keyboard and mouse on the shared office space, no meetings >5 people, and work as much as possible from home.
Never had this in 25 yrs on the job.

I doubt my employer even has a backup plan. We struggle to get our IT to work as it is with the IT staff located at our parent company. I am one of few with a company laptop with emails already on it and i could borrow out the only 3D CAD floating licence the company has and go home but i mostly use KiCad at work and the libraries live on my portable hard drive anyway. The mere fact that I can in 30 secands take out the 3D CAD licence is only because I made them put the floating licence on the laptop for me.

Electronics wise I am better set up an home than at work.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 12, 2020, 06:29:57 pm
Yes well issues do occurr, VPN service overcrowded so not everyone can get in.
People that can't reach colleagues anymore.
Ever tried a skype call with more than ten colleagues?  |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 06:37:08 pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)

We now know that the virus had already made a few victims there (Bergamo and Codogno areas) before anybody noticed that.
Just too many people do not make the due vaccination against ordinary flue so at first they thought it was just that, ordinary flue.

In the meantime the virus had already taken foot spreading to many unknowingly people.
In Italy, we now have more than 15000 cases.
Since they are testing just people who shows symptoms, that likely means that there are already 50k-200k cases who got the virus and have never shown any symptom or are yet at a very early stage of the disease.

Average incubation time is 5.1 days, while 14 days of quarantine covers just 99% of cases (as recently reported by John Hopkins University).
So we have to wait a few days to see if the measures taken so far are working.

While COVID-19 is not as bad as SARS or MERS, it will kill many people and will cause severe problems to the economy.
It will be fine if we can learn from that (at a regional level, e.g. EU or better at the whole world one) and get ready for the next wave.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 07:02:13 pm
Quote
The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.
It's interesting that I've seen very few projections on the internet and none in the press.  I think humans, in general, have a hard time appreciating the implication of exponential spread.  The more we can give people a glimpse of what's to come, the more willing they may be to change behaviors.  And there's really only two things they need to do, or even can do to slow the spread: 1) wash their hands frequently, 2) go home and stay there.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:04:53 pm
by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/)

I'm not Trump, but you do behave like him. I never wrote that the virus will magically disappear in May.
It is high likely that COVID-19 is here to stay, together with the other coronaviruses which cause flue-like symptoms since centuries:
- Human Coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E)
- Human Coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43)
- Human Coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63)
- Human Coronavirus HKU1 (HCoV-HFU1)

By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus, but I'm afraid dr Zhong Nanshan might be wrong pretending it will completely disappear (like SARS) in June.
It is a pandemy. I suspect it will just spread in the other hemisphere and then come back here next winter.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:15:09 pm
"The virus should be much weaker" and 'the virus is less likely to be transmitted in warmer weather' - the latter being what Snopes considers - are not the same thing.

The integrity of the capsid in the air is strongly related to both temperature and RH. So in the Death Valley, although the temperature is quite high it might survive a bit longer than near the beach during later spring in a temperate climate.  :)

Quote
There's a real possibility that the virus in circulation may be less virulent by May by a combination of two reasons: (1) Coronaviruses are highly mutable, there's a very high probability of new variants emerging during a pandemic, (2) viruses/bacteria/parasites that kill their hosts are less likely to spread than less lethal variants. This was actually seen, and confirmed, during one of the earlier flu pandemics (I don't offhand remember which one) where later in the pandemic the original flu variant died off and a mutated, less virulent, variant continued to spread - the death rate fell while infection rates continued at the same level. Although this is a real possibility, it's not a effect that any plan to control the disease ought to rely on.

You're probably referring to H1N1 AKA 2009 pig flue. Yes, when a virus is too good at killing its host it has less chances to spread around.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 07:16:28 pm
At the current rate of spread in the US, herd immunity will slow the growth before the summer arrives.  Experts are advising that at 60%-80% infection rate, there is enough immunity to slow the spread in the population.  The current growth pattern in the US will put us at that point in late April.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:26:21 pm
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemics in the northern hemisphere usually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).

the protein shell (capsid) lasts longer in COLD (i.e. lower temperature) and DRY weather. Besides that, cold weather causes vasoconstriction of peripheral veins and so the immune system is less efficient at reacting to the virus in the nose (or in the eyes if you transfer the virus from a contaminated surface).
I think that a good mask (FFP3) while only partially stops the virus (it is around 0.1µm), creates a hot and wet micro-climate where the virus shell is more prone to degradation and the nose blood circulation works better.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 12, 2020, 07:39:12 pm
Recent figures from China are laughable, and they cannot be rationally explained.

Given the harsh measures the Chinese government took (difficult to implement in other countries) those figures are believable like are those of South Corea.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 12, 2020, 07:49:08 pm
Quote
The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.
It's interesting that I've seen very few projections on the internet and none in the press.  I think humans, in general, have a hard time appreciating the implication of exponential spread.  The more we can give people a glimpse of what's to come, the more willing they may be to change behaviors.  And there's really only two things they need to do, or even can do to slow the spread: 1) wash their hands frequently, 2) go home and stay there.
The major problem we see is the vast majority of people are absolutely irresponsible by default (the people anywhere in the World). They simply do not care, unless forced by pretty draconian measures (or by totalitarian dictatorships). And they will not change their behavior, I am afraid.
I think only fast advances in vaccines manufacturing may save future generations from disasters. They have to be able to produce a new vaccine within a month - a nice challenge for talented scientists and high-tech companies, imho.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 12, 2020, 08:14:56 pm
I was only criticizing metrologist's way of plotting the data. Didn't mean to question your point, and I don't think I said anything to that effect.

Here is the way I had the chart before I saw the log scale, so all I did was change my scale to log. It was interesting because we use the same data, but my chart did not fit a 2.4 day doubling time. I'm sure there are a dozen other things you can pick on about my chart. This one is the exact same data, just changed the scale.

Of course I expect the case curve to deviate from the extrapolated curve, and of course the data is very limited and not truly representative. I was reading that the US has a capacity of about 1000 tests per day max (lab analysis), and the test methods are unproven. They can give all the millions of tests they have, but it cannot be processed that fast.

Some fun reading that crossed my path..

Interesting panel discussion:
#coronavirus info:
[bracketed text is by panel attendee] otherwise pretty much quotes from panelists

“University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19
March 10, 2020

• Panelists
• Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford). Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
• Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics
• Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist.
• Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist.
• Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc

What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.
• Top takeaways
• At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.
• Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
• How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
• We are moving from containment to care.
• We in the US are currently where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
• 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
• [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
• The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
• This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
• The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]
• Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
• I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.

• What should we do now? What are you doing for your family?
• Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
• How long does the virus last?
• On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
• The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.
• Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.
• We have cancelled business travel.
• Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face.
• Stockpile your critical prescription medications. Many pharma supply chains run through China. Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing.
• Pneumonia shot might be helpful. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
• Get a flu shot next fall. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
• We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”. CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.
• We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes. Then are not letting them out of the house. The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in.
• Three routes of infection
• Hand to mouth / face
• Aerosol transmission
• Fecal oral route

• What if someone is sick?
• If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate. There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home. Most cases are mild. But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.
• If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER.
• There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19. The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease. ie to prevent sepsis.
• If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China. Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll. Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19. If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines. [More I found online.]
• Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults?
• Your immune system declines past age 50
• Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness. These conditions are higher in older adults.
• Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults.

• What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19?
• Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful. Here’s why.
• Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test. No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”.
• A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA. However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives.
• The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits.
• While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing.
• The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day. For the nation.
• Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.” And certification. ie it won’t happen soon.
• UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits. But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day. And are not clinically certified.
• Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger.

• How well is society preparing for the impact?
• Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak. UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot. They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus. They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility.
• If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities. But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected.
• School closures are one the biggest societal impacts. We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects. If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services.
• Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis. They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months. Other solutions will have to be found.
• What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months?
• Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed.
• Kids home due to school closures
• [Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office. When he returned we asked what the call covered.] The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action. The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions. ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people.

• Where do you find reliable news?
• The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site. Which posts daily updates. The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email. [I tried and the page times out due to high demand. After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]
• The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.

• Observations on China
• Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19.
• While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent.
• Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand. Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks. Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.
• Early on no one had info on COVID-19. So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime.

• Every few years there seems another: SARS, Ebola, MERS, H1N1, COVID-19. Growing strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease?
• "We’ve been in a back and forth battle against viruses for a million years."
• But it would sure help if every country would shut down their wet markets.
• As with many things, the worst impact of COVID-19 will likely be in the countries with the least resources, eg Africa. See article on Wired magazine on sequencing of virus from Cambodia.”
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 12, 2020, 08:43:22 pm
I think it would be interesting to try to project when we would run out of hospital beds based on this growth pattern.  A number of factors would come into play, such as number of beds, % in use, turnover of beds, location of beds vs. hotspots, etc.  Just eyeballing the numbers without careful calculations and by making broad assumptions, it looks to me like the US health system could be overwhelmed early next month.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 12, 2020, 08:58:30 pm
Total cases is a bit pointless.  80% of the total cases have recovered.  5% or so are dead, leaving only 15% actually infected and infectous.

The figure you want to look at is "Active Cases".  These are the number of people actually with the virus.  It's important as if that number is rising, it's getting worse, if it's falling, it's getting better.

Total cases will ALWAYS rise, this is why the media are using it to scare people into the zombie apocalypse.

Just been for my weekly shopping.  No loo roll, because of mass insanity.  No pasta, rice, bread and the tinned food and frozen isles completely cleared out!

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 12, 2020, 09:12:34 pm
The number of infected is XX times higher than those reported by WHO, imho.
Those undocumented are the people with none symptoms, with symptoms similar to light flu (especially when vaccinated against flu), and people who hide the symptoms.
Thus the 40-70% infected the US or Germany indicate as the possible result could be easily achievable.
What is reported are cases which were tested. And they test only a really small sample of population (those who show symptoms, or those who are suspect). Most states in EU do not test people who stay home with mild symptoms "similar to flu".
After this pandemic they will find antibodies for the covid19 in 70% of the World population, I bet.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 12, 2020, 09:13:58 pm
Yes the bigger problem is the idiots panic buying. I have several weeks of food already. I will buy no more.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 12, 2020, 09:21:16 pm
Total cases is a bit pointless.  80% of the total cases have recovered.  5% or so are dead, leaving only 15% actually infected and infectous.

The figure you want to look at is "Active Cases".  These are the number of people actually with the virus.  It's important as if that number is rising, it's getting worse, if it's falling, it's getting better.

In the exponential growth phase, with the number of total cases doubling every 2 to 3 days as seen in most affected countries these days, the vast majority of the total cases will be "active". At any time, 80% of the total cases will be cases only detected within the last week.

Exponential growth is a bitch, and can be counter-intuitive. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 12, 2020, 09:22:35 pm
Anecdotally, the virus appears to be rampant in France despite the statistics. I just found out a relative in France has got the corona virus. Also, my daughter lives in France (she does not have the virus) and said some client walked into her work and told the judge she has the virus and will spread it on purpose because she has contempt for the French court system. The woman was arrested and tested as positive. Seems like the virus can be used as a weapon.

By the way, is it "coronavirus" or "corona virus"? If seems both terms are used, with the former being more popular. It seems the bad spelling is spreading faster than the virus itself. Why would Anglophones join the two distinct words together when there is no reason to do so? Itseemsratheroddtome.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 12, 2020, 09:38:55 pm
Yes the bigger problem is the idiots panic buying. I have several weeks of food already. I will buy no more.

This is why I now refer to the whole thing as the zombie apocalypse.  Not because of the virus, but because of how people are reacting to it.  I can actually see it become quite dangerous to be out in public in the coming days.  The virus you can defend against with some sense and hygiene.  The idiots will be much harder to defend against if they go postal.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 12, 2020, 10:24:01 pm
By the way, is it "coronavirus" or "corona virus"?

It's a "coronavirus", one of the family of coronaviruses which contains about 40 species. What we're loosely calling Covid-19 is strictly the name of the disease it causes and the virus causing it is SARS-CoV-2 a strain of the species  "Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus", subgenus Sarbecovirus, genus Betacoronavirus, family "Coronaviridae", order Nidovirales, relam Riboviria.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 12, 2020, 10:26:38 pm
I think it would be interesting to try to project when we would run out of hospital beds based on this growth pattern.  A number of factors would come into play, such as number of beds, % in use, turnover of beds, location of beds vs. hotspots, etc.  Just eyeballing the numbers without careful calculations and by making broad assumptions, it looks to me like the US health system could be overwhelmed early next month.

Here's an article (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/) that "runs the numbers" both for (U.S.) hospital beds and face masks--the two resources that are most likely to be overwhelmed when/if things get worse.

Quote
If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 12, 2020, 10:32:46 pm
One can sense at street level from listening in on hot wind powered chats, that another Idiot Apocalypse is slowly gaining some ground,
but so far many are still so-o-0 unsure,  :-//
and fear the embarrassment of being fooled again  :-[  more than they do a few sniffles, headaches, skin rash, dunny runs.. or even death itself  :scared:

That's a good thing imho, and keeps the rabble under control till this blows over and the next one kicks off.. in 2022 ?  :popcorn:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: shakalnokturn on March 12, 2020, 11:34:53 pm
Anecdotally, the virus appears to be rampant in France despite the statistics. I just found out a relative in France has got the corona virus. Also, my daughter lives in France (she does not have the virus) and said some client walked into her work and told the judge she has the virus and will spread it on purpose because she has contempt for the French court system. The woman was arrested and tested as positive. Seems like the virus can be used as a weapon.

By the way, is it "coronavirus" or "corona virus"? If seems both terms are used, with the former being more popular. It seems the bad spelling is spreading faster than the virus itself. Why would Anglophones join the two distinct words together when there is no reason to do so? Itseemsratheroddtome.

France is minimising the impact, economical reasons and upcoming elections this weekend.
People who lived in France through the Chernobyl event should have learnt how much they can't trust their government and media to protect and inform them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 12, 2020, 11:38:36 pm
The thing I'm most curious to see is when people get tired of hearing about it and give up and return to business as usual. I mean this stay at home thing is feasible for some people, I can work from home indefinitely and now my employer has mandated it but most people cannot, they can stay home for a week or two but the virus could easily be spreading for months so this is not sustainable.

I don't know when, but I would bet that at some point covid-19 is not new and shiny anymore, it will have infected or killed enough people that it will become another faceless statistic and everyone will be obsessing over something else.

I'm hopeful that a lasting result of this will be an increase in telecommuting as companies pushed into offering it due to the currently unusual circumstances will see that for many jobs it is a waste of resources to require everyone to come in and sit together in the same office. With the communication tools we have available now all I need is my laptop and a decent internet connection, my physical location is irrelevant. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 12, 2020, 11:42:40 pm
I am sick to death of hearing about it.   :rant:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 13, 2020, 12:00:30 am
I am sick to death of hearing about it.   :rant:
Hopefully not literally Muttley. Keep safe mate.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 13, 2020, 12:07:25 am
I am sick to death of hearing about it.   :rant:

Queue up mate  :D

Sicker to find no dunny paper anywhere because of too many idiots

and people that were normal ( ::)) a few weeks ago getting all so-o-o grim, serious and 'informed and updated' about it if some humor gets tossed in..

Image all these idiots in a real shtf situation,
they'll stay in a burning building about to collapse, breathing through improvised folded dunny paper 'filters',
because it's still a better punt than escaping and risk 'catching something deadly'    :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 13, 2020, 11:57:20 am
The Greek Orthodox church say that taking the communion wine from the same common spoon won't spread the virus... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117). Is this God's protection of the faithful, or the 13% ethanol content of the wine preventing spread of the virus?

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 13, 2020, 12:53:45 pm
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,

So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.

Sorry, but the meme that "the virus will reduce by itself in time" is just bullshit, people are just using it to justify not doing anything. The only reduction effects will be herd immunity, when sufficient people have been infected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 13, 2020, 12:56:58 pm
The Greek Orthodox church say that taking the communion wine from the same common spoon won't spread the virus... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117). Is this God's protection of the faithful, or the 13% ethanol content of the wine preventing spread of the virus?

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

Do we really need an excuse for a glass of wine etc. ??   ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 13, 2020, 01:19:09 pm
The Greek Orthodox church say that taking the communion wine from the same common spoon won't spread the virus... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117). Is this God's protection of the faithful, or the 13% ethanol content of the wine preventing spread of the virus?

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

No. The infection route for this is mucosal, so if you wanted to sterilise food as you ate it you'd need to be swilling overproof rum with every mouthful. The accumulated hangovers would be worse than the disease symptoms for most people. Food's pretty sanitary for the most part. Anything that is over 70ºC for a few minutes is going to kill most bacteria and viruses, those that don't get killed by cooking tend not to survive the 1.5 - 3.5 pH HCl in your stomach. It's hard to get an infection of any kind from food. Most food poisoning is that, poisoning by excreted toxins from bacteria when previously cooked food isn't re-heated for hot enough and long enough to denature the toxins (which tend to be proteinaceous in nature).

The kind of alcohol concentration needed to be an effective biocide is over 50% by volume, ideally 70%. Wine most certainly won't cut it, nor fortified wines, and most spirits at 40% by volume are going to be at best partially effective.

So, as far as partakers in communion wine and wafers being in the clear from cross-infection, to quote Robert Heinlein, think of it as evolution in action.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 13, 2020, 01:25:16 pm

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

Err, no. It does not work like that. If the virus enters a mucus part of your body it's in your body, not your gut. Your gut is also one of the harshest chemical environments known to man.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 13, 2020, 01:38:37 pm
[...] by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Recent studies suggest otherwise. In fact experts over here expect the climax in infections by June/July, in high summer. Hence all effort right now concentrates on slowing down the spread to a rate that can be handled by our medical system.

The consensus seems to be that the case fatality will be quite low if we manage to not overflow the intensive care capabilities. If you look at China, the high fatality numbers are dominated by Hubei province, where especially in Wuhan the intensive care capacities were overwhelmed. In the rest of China, the case fatality rate was much lower.

In Germany right now we have over 3000 reported cases and 7 deaths (0.2%) but that's overly optimistic right now, IMHO. Let's see how the numbers develop in the coming two weeks, we know that fatality trails reported by about two weeks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 13, 2020, 01:40:22 pm

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

Err, no. It does not work like that. If the virus enters a mucus part of your body it's in your body, not your gut. Your gut is also one of the harshest chemical environments known to man.

Hydrochloric acid...   If you ever tried working with that stuff, you get impressed with how the body manages to keep it contained without burning holes in your body!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 13, 2020, 01:51:05 pm
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,

So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.

I hate to bring fact rather than rhetoric into things, but you do realise that SARS and Covid-19 are caused by the same species of virus, don't you. A different strain, but the same species. In the ~30,000 base pairs of their genome over 99% is identical (which is much more significant than 99% similarity in a animal where there are billions of base pairs). So drawing parallels from what is know about the long term behaviour of SARS is quite valid. It's about the same as making predictions on the biology of Dobermann Pinschers based on the biology of German Shepherds, both different but closely related strains of the same species.

Between 28th Feb and today 350 separately produced genome sequences have been published for variants of the SARS virus SARS-CoV-2 (aka Covid-19). It seems to be acquiring about 1-2 observed mutations a month. Some of these mutations will make it more virulent and pathogenic, some will make it less, some will not change it's virulence or pathogenicity. More pathogenic variants kill their hosts faster, so are less successful in evolutionary terms and as a consequence die out faster. The pattern of viruses mutating and less pathogenic, more likely to spread variants arising and gradually dominating the infection spread is well known.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 13, 2020, 02:18:20 pm

This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

Err, no. It does not work like that. If the virus enters a mucus part of your body it's in your body, not your gut. Your gut is also one of the harshest chemical environments known to man.

Hydrochloric acid...   If you ever tried working with that stuff, you get impressed with how the body manages to keep it contained without burning holes in your body!

Yep and one can also be impressed when something like H. pylori comes around, destroys that containment lining and *poof* an ulcer...not because you worried about the mortgage but because the marvelous engineering can, on occasion, be defeated by other marvelous engineering.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 13, 2020, 03:29:03 pm
Quote
A few days ago I brought a couple of large toilet roll packs and could have easily been labelled a hoarder, how dare I buy two right?

Ignore the noise.  Just prepare.  If you have to be isolated for weeks, you won't need to go out to buy toilet paper.  If you stay home and out of the chain of transmission, you'll be helping save lives.  Those calling others hoarders are just people who didn't have the foresight to plan and prepare as well as you :scared:.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 13, 2020, 04:07:06 pm
Ode to toilet paper (spanish version)

Pa, pa, pa, pa, paper, paper,
paper, paper, paper, paper, paper, paper
paper, paper, paper, paper, paper, paper
paper, paper, sweet satin,
you'll give us pleasure
paper, paper, without end.
 
Paper, paper
Of color gray, loud red white and blue, lemon green
is your essential purpose to caress with softness.
You always alert serving the people
without distinguising analphabet or intellectual,
Private or general, proletariat or capital.
just at time of evacuating the classes to fight
just at time of evacuating the classes to fight
to... fight...
 
Is your cruel destiny, is your disgraceful fate
when they used you to violate your punishment
of sending you to the sewer by flushing.
And is your wise rebelliosness to block the pipe
as a final revenge.
Humble, delicated, and selfless paper,
you have always been despised and mistreated mercilessly.
Loved paper, fellow of the toilet
you must be defended and presented in society.
And recieve the award of some... decoration.
 
Paper, paper, faithful friend.
Because with your exemplary help
we don't have to splash the fingers,
and as proof of good faith
I swear I'll never use
the rough leaves of the ABC.
Only you, Only you, Only you, Solo tú!
And may my yell reach heaven
because you are and you'll be our best friend,
loyal immortal toilet paper
paper, per, per, per...
Glory to the paper.
Glory to the paper, paper,
per, per, per...

https://lyricstranslate.com
https://youtu.be/UNh9RPwUJGg (https://youtu.be/UNh9RPwUJGg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Karel on March 13, 2020, 04:54:39 pm
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 13, 2020, 05:10:36 pm
Deserving of wider circulation:

(https://i.imgur.com/pLwKZOn.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 13, 2020, 05:27:20 pm
Here is another based on earlier Chinese data.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 13, 2020, 05:41:31 pm
With covid19 there is heavy underreporting, imho.
All statistics I've seen are based on "positive tested" vs. mortality.
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
You have to know the number of "infected" vs. fatalities.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 13, 2020, 05:48:34 pm
Well since we can't really test everyone, logistically, it means we look at data we know is valid and extrapolate like usual.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 13, 2020, 05:49:46 pm
With covid19 there is heavy underreporting, imho.
All statistics I've seen are based on "positive tested" vs. mortality.
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
You have to know the number of "infected" vs. fatalities.

Yes, the CFR is not very meaningful at this point. The detected cases are still very few, and biased towards cases with already heavy symptoms, which is likely to bias the CFR at this point.
Many hospitals just don't have the means of testing more people anyway. Those are not instant tests.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 13, 2020, 05:55:46 pm
Sure, the number of "tested" is say 10ppm of the entire population (in Europe).
From that tested is X "positive".
From that X "positive" is Y "deaths".
Doing fatality rate calculation based on X an Y is  :bullshit: , because "infected" is KK times more than "tested".

After the pandemic "finishes" you may do a research - you have to check the population on the covid19 antibodies - and you will get the number of "infected" Z.
Then you may do the "fatality rate" calculation based on Z and Y.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 13, 2020, 06:16:00 pm
I wonder what effect vaping has on it.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135271/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135271/)

It mentions antimicrobial positives, but not, without access to the full article antiviral, though they do mention an influenza virus test.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 13, 2020, 06:26:54 pm
Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

I wonder what effect vaping has on it.

Now that we have hypothesized about potential health benefits from vaping and drinking alcohol, may I propose a review of the anti-viral effects of sex, drugs, and rock'n'roll?  ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 13, 2020, 06:38:36 pm
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
If there is still a great risk of hidden infected cases, Chinese government wouldn't have lifted lock down within Hubei province.
The "infected cases" are all those with mild or none symptoms, or with symptoms similar to flu treated at home with aspirin. Also people who hide the symptoms. All those "infected" will recover within a week or two without be registered by the authorities. The only sign of covid19 infection are the antibodies in their blood.
For example small children do not show symptoms even infected, experts say. With 300 million children in your country you may have 300 million "infected" and not registered in any statistics (an example only).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 13, 2020, 06:49:39 pm
Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

I wonder what effect vaping has on it.

Now that we have hypothesized about potential health benefits from vaping and drinking alcohol, may I propose a review of the anti-viral effects of sex, drugs, and rock'n'roll?  ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFRdbPPCG4w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFRdbPPCG4w)

Some say it's a pandemic and some say it's the end of the world
Well if that’s true baby you might as well be my girl

I hear people talking Sayin it was made by man
I don't know what to believe but I believe you should wash your hands


Edited to add:
That rustling sound that you hear...that's Robert Johnson rolling over in his grave.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 13, 2020, 07:05:36 pm
Chinese government has banned the sale of cold and fever relief drugs temporarily for the exact reason.
As for kids, their parents will not miss the symptoms even if they did.
Their parents may get light or none symptoms, unless they are over 60..
Here they will stay home for a week or two with aspirin and hot tea, and the whole family is off any statistics..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Karel on March 13, 2020, 07:18:50 pm
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)
[attach=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: richnormand on March 13, 2020, 08:33:18 pm
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)
(Attachment Link)

Nice link and info. Thanks.

Here are two links that I thought would be useful a little while back:

The first one explains well the shape of the graph for China once the inflexion point is reached.
However the latest numbers for cases outside China are still exponential. Key is to detect cases that arrived from outside and isolate them before you start having local infections/propagation.

The second one puts the present situation in historical perspective.

Both video start slowly but end up conveying the message: you need to stop all unnecessary travel to isolate the virus and slow the spread between "cells" with public health measures such as basic hand washing social distancing!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 14, 2020, 12:22:52 am
Toilet paper shelves are still bare in Melbourne. Pasta cannot be found. Rice is gone. Flour is gone. Last week there were 1,000 people lined up to go inside Costco and when it opened there was a complete and utter debacle. Scott Morrison, the Prime Minister of Australia caused this mess with his comments that everyone should stock up. The very next day the panic buying started. Morrison is out of his depth.

There is no panic buying problem in France. And yet they are in a far worse predicament than us in Australia. There is no problem in their supermarkets. There is an irony here. Australians protest over nothing and never go on strike. The government can walk all over us. Yet we are out of control with panic buying. The French protest a lot and strikes are commonplace, often holding the public to ransom. Yes they are orderly when it comes to this virus. Even the Gilet Jaune thugs are not creating anarchy at the moment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Tomorokoshi on March 14, 2020, 05:07:07 pm
I'm not panic buying.

I'm expeditiously purchasing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 14, 2020, 05:48:58 pm
I'm not panic buying.

I'm expeditiously purchasing.

Ah, that's one of those irregular verbs isn't it:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on March 14, 2020, 08:13:53 pm
Friend just sent some photos from Spain, all shelves empty.

Here while we have pretty strong measures in place (no gatherings >50 people, schools, cinemas etc closed etc) at the shop it's a day like any other.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 08:29:18 pm
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,

So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.

Sorry, but the meme that "the virus will reduce by itself in time" is just bullshit, people are just using it to justify not doing anything. The only reduction effects will be herd immunity, when sufficient people have been infected.

Doing nothing is the most stupid thing to do (that is just the strategy chosen by mr Bor-ass-hole Johnson).
Here in Italy we are following WHO recommendations, Spain is doing the same.
During the last week I got out just once with an FFP3 mask and gloves to buy food.
I even started to wear a mask (unfortunately I have just one left from the stock I bought one year ago) and gloves a few days before the government enforced the quarantine.
We'll have to wait a couple of weeks to see any result. I just hope we'll not have to face any new cases coming from UK, US or other "smart" countries.

In any case there are good chances that the virus will get both less lethal and that hot and wet weather will degrade the protein shell more quickly. That's a matter of fact, not political propaganda.
-1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.
-2) a few tests on COVID-19 survival in free air and on surfaces have already been done
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 08:53:02 pm
[...] by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Recent studies suggest otherwise. In fact experts over here expect the climax in infections by June/July, in high summer. Hence all effort right now concentrates on slowing down the spread to a rate that can be handled by our medical system.

The consensus seems to be that the case fatality will be quite low if we manage to not overflow the intensive care capabilities. If you look at China, the high fatality numbers are dominated by Hubei province, where especially in Wuhan the intensive care capacities were overwhelmed. In the rest of China, the case fatality rate was much lower.

In Germany right now we have over 3000 reported cases and 7 deaths (0.2%) but that's overly optimistic right now, IMHO. Let's see how the numbers develop in the coming two weeks, we know that fatality trails reported by about two weeks.

I've been misunderstood. I didn't mean to understate the danger. I think the virus will not disappear, but will get less lethal with time.
So many deaths, both in China and here in Italy come from the fact that at first the virus spread unnoticed in several hospitals.
And yes, unfortunately it is still quite dangerous. Today it killed a 47 year old man with no other pathology.

And if you do not take any severe measures, there in Germany, positive cases will grow very quickly.
Even with all the measures taken here in Italy, we'll probably have to wait 1-2 weeks before seeing a decrease in the number of new cases (we have already some small improvement in the areas where it started).
At the end we'll probably have more cases and deaths than in China.
UK instead is on the road of suicide. Unless they do not change quickly they'll get one million of deaths or even more. Herd immunity... that's bullshit... that's dr Mengele stuff, unacceptable in a modern democracy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 14, 2020, 08:55:17 pm
1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.
This theory might not be applicable to this virus. There is evidence that COVID-19 can spread asymptomatic (before the host starts showing symptoms or dies).

As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 14, 2020, 09:04:40 pm
  We went shopping here yesterday and except for hand wipes and TP we didn't have any problems getting what we wanted.  The store was busy but no worse than when all of the local university students come back from any of their breaks.  We had to stand in line for perhaps 30 seconds to get to the check out counter but that was it.

      Since the theme parks and the schools closed there are a lot of people out and about, mostly out jogging, walking their dogs, or working on projects around their houses. I just came back from going out and buying another Oxy/Acetylene torch with tanks. I'm going back to buy a MIG welder and two tanks tomorrow.  Life is good, at the moment!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 14, 2020, 09:08:32 pm
Friend just sent some photos from Spain, all shelves empty.

Here while we have pretty strong measures in place (no gatherings >50 people, schools, cinemas etc closed etc) at the shop it's a day like any other.

  We just got a message from my BIL in Barcelona, he said that yesterday that everyone was out on the streets and having a good time and everything was open but it's a different story today.  The streets are empty and almost everything is closed. They did find a couple of snack shops that are open but with no eat in. Everything is strickly take out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 14, 2020, 09:15:50 pm
That is a big question whether UK's approach is good or bad, however.
Europe does following - they try to slow down the rate of spreading, they do not attempt to stop the virus, as it is not possible, it seems.
By slowing down the rate they want to de-load their national health systems (to avoid the overloaded Italy scenario).

The experts know already the XX% of the population will certainly acquire the virus this year. The Chinese and other statistics show ~80% of cases are with none or mild symptoms. With sufficient treatment of the difficult cases, under "normally" working hospital care, they can master it without more fatalities than with flu. That is what UK and Germany (and others) are targeting, imho.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:21:52 pm
1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.
This theory might not be applicable to this virus. There is evidence that COVID-19 can spread asymptomatic (before the host starts showing symptoms or dies).

That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.

Quote
As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.

That's because in those countries, even decades ago when I spent a few years there, air conditioned is widely spread and it offers the ideal conditions for the virus survival and spread (cold and dry air).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 09:24:00 pm
  We went shopping here yesterday and except for hand wipes and TP we didn't have any problems getting what we wanted.  The store was busy but no worse than when all of the local university students come back from any of their breaks.  We had to stand in line for perhaps 30 seconds to get to the check out counter but that was it.

      Since the theme parks and the schools closed there are a lot of people out and about, mostly out jogging, walking their dogs, or working on projects around their houses. I just came back from going out and buying another Oxy/Acetylene torch with tanks. I'm going back to buy a MIG welder and two tanks tomorrow.  Life is good, at the moment!

here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 14, 2020, 09:49:57 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 14, 2020, 09:53:28 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.
Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 10:01:45 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

Evolution doesn't work that way: even a bit better is enough.

And usually is not a keyword, it is just like science works, it is all a matter of probability and self-correction in a feedback loop, there is nobody suggesting any truth from some mountain-top or whispering in the ear of some self proclaimed prophet.

In any case apart from the viruses biology (some of them is even useful against antibiotic resistant bacteria) I'm in no way promoting laissez-faire.
We are dealing with the life of real people and the most sensible thing is just to follow WHO guidelines (like China, Italy, Spain), because:

-1) even if you are young and healthy and so there are little chances you'll die of covid-19, little is not zero
-2) even if you are young and healthy you could transmit the disease to other people who could die
-3) herd immunity with 60% of positive cases (the proclaimed goal of the British government) is pure bullshit and will make people die by the hundredth of thousand in UK alone (if I'm not wrong, deaths there just doubled in a single day... so according to that trend in a couple of weeks they might get there).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 14, 2020, 10:04:12 pm
That's because in those countries, even decades ago when I spent a few years there, air conditioned is widely spread and it offers the ideal conditions for the virus survival and spread (cold and dry air).
I lived in Singapore for decade. Air conditioning means 24-26C ambient temperature and 60-80% humidity in that country. It is not that you can get dry air. Still, most Singaporeans do not use air conditioning at their HDB flats, and large number of local businesses don’t use air conditioning either. In less prosperous neighboring countries that I listed, the A/C prevalence is much lower than in the rich city-state.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 14, 2020, 10:10:03 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

evolution doesn't work that way, even a bit better is enough

I've no idea why you are doing so much hand waving over this, you agree with the premise that doing nothing is stupid. We have to act now, not take chances.
 
There is still ZERO proof for your assertion. Please just give up with the guesswork. Admit you have no proof. We will only find out with hindsight.


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 10:41:05 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

evolution doesn't work that way, even a bit better is enough

I've no idea why you are doing so much hand waving over this, you agree with the premise that doing nothing is stupid. We have to act now, not take chances.
 
There is still ZERO proof for your assertion. Please just give up with the guesswork. Admit you have no proof. We will only find out with hindsight.

I was just dealing with the biology of viruses and if you ever mind to read any scientific paper you can find confirmation for what I wrote (even regarding the effect of A/C - I might even find the link of that study...).

Dealing with the current disease is a different matter and I fully support WHO guidelines (I added more details to my previous message).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 14, 2020, 11:01:55 pm
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.
Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).

yes the positive numbers we see today are those who got infected (on average) 5,1 days ago and besides them there are those who didn't show any symptoms, but fatality ratio will be much higher than flue because unlike flue we have no immunity against COVID-19.

Given the same conditions, e.g. on Andaman Islands people, who have never been exposed either to flue or COVID-19 viruses, flue might be more lethal (or might not), but for the vast majority of people in the world it is the other way.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 14, 2020, 11:07:12 pm
What's the EEVblog member body count so far?   :popcorn:

fwiw 240 litre wheelie bin liners purposed as body bags are cheap and should get the job done when doubled or tripled up for extra strength



"Suitable for large 240L wheelie bins 1470mm x 1130mm

Easy tear off bags

Multi-purpose, ideal during apocalyptic events, be they real, hyped, or just to be prepared either way, or both ways

Rubbish, storage, garden, decomposition

These tough Wheelie Bin Liners will help to keep the smells out of your rubbish bin, with a 240L capacity

And whilst we don't officially endorse their use as body bags for humans/animals or pets, we hope our customers use and dispose responsibly,
and not dump any sealed contents illegally in road side ditches, waterways, or nature strips on hard waste collection days.

If you find this product useful, please recommend it to surviving family and friends,

and don't forget to Like us on Facebook."





i.e. guys FYI > better score a few packs before the loo paper/pasta selfish idiot hoarders get apocalyptic again
doing the ninja thing with their credit cards..
  :scared: :scared: :scared:


 :horse: :horse: :horse:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 14, 2020, 11:07:54 pm
Given the same conditions, e.g. on Andaman Islands people, who have never been exposed either to flue or COVID-19 viruses, flue might be more lethal (or might not), but for the vast majority of people in the world it is the other way.
Good example. And that is exactly what we want to know - the FR for flu vs. covid19 under your assumption above.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 14, 2020, 11:35:23 pm


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 14, 2020, 11:59:03 pm
The experts know already the XX% of the population will certainly acquire the virus this year. The Chinese and other statistics show ~80% of cases are with none or mild symptoms. With sufficient treatment of the difficult cases, under "normally" working hospital care, they can master it without more fatalities than with flu. That is what UK and Germany (and others) are targeting, imho.

Quote
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).

In one cemetery of the  Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.

You will sing another tune in two weeks time.

FYI: in the region of Veneto they made 20 thoudand tests. Only a small percentage turned out positive.
Where are all the asymptomatic carriers your 'hunch' requires?

EDIT: they are reaching ICU saturation in these very days. So, no, they were not left to die outside an ICU.
And, unless you expect covid-19 to enable time travel, there is a bit of a problem in assuming that most of the population got it and had the time to move from incubation to getting rid of the virus without having any critical case.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 15, 2020, 12:43:44 am
In one cemetery of the  Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.


That still doesn't really tell us anything conclusive. Was that region a hotspot for infections? Is it an area where a lot of people who are older or in poor health go to retire? 90 people in two weeks sounds like a lot but there must be many thousands of people who die every day. We don't know how many of those people died of Covid-19, and of those who did, how many of them were on the brink and would have died naturally within the next few months either way. I think we'll need to wait a few months to see what happens, either way I think it's a given we should take steps to not spread it, but if this panic continues nobody is going to care about the virus anymore because we'll all be looking for any job we can get just to put food on the table. To prevent a few thousand people dying of illness we could have 10 or more times that dying because they're homeless, can't afford food or medicine.

And for all the fuss and panic, does anyone here personally know anyone who died?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 15, 2020, 12:54:44 am
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). That is what kills people. And unlike the flu, which kills through allowing secondary bacterial infections to set in (which can be treated with antibiotics), the coronavirus overwhelms the lungs directly. Therefore the only way to reduce death is have respirators around and lots of them. It is also more contagious and the numbers also bear out that mortality is higher. Estimates in the 2-3% versus 0.1% for flu.

There is no reason to panic but because early and drastic intervention is needed to stop the rate of transmission and reduce new case count, that is the only way to keep our hospitals from getting over-saturated in cases which ultimately will be unable to treat because of lack of ventilators. All of this is to "widen and prolong" the bell curve of infection to keep under the threshold of what our health systems can care for. Nobody wants a spike (narrow tall bell curve) which will result in millions of people being sick simultaneously. We will just run out of hospital beds, machines and ventilators and many people who could otherwise be saved will die from this stupid reason.

(https://thumbor-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/ii/w820/s/thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/711x497/https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e6b3f08aa5428000759bd33/960x0.jpg?fit=scale)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 15, 2020, 01:13:50 am


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2020, 01:25:35 am
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery. I got pneumonia before when swimming in too cold water so I'm familiar with the feeling (which was much worse than it is now though).
Quote
That is what kills people.
I hope not; I'd like to stick around for a bit longer. Needless to say I'm staying at home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 15, 2020, 01:42:10 am


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 15, 2020, 02:37:26 am


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)

But Christmas only comes once a year! (Must be a heck of an orgy though if it's the whole town!)  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 15, 2020, 04:44:10 am
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 15, 2020, 05:24:33 am
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Have you ever been to Italy?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 15, 2020, 05:44:04 am
China is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. They have a LOT more human and construction resources to move around and focus than a country with 60 million people (Italy). If Australia had the same infection rate as Italy, they would likely be making hard choices on who to save as well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 15, 2020, 07:38:20 am
You need to call a clinic or h whatever. You might need medi action now!
One think is getting not get it. Another is getting worst and not seeking help.
 Go to a clinic
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: carloserodriguez on March 15, 2020, 07:43:42 am
It's not age discrimination.
Tow people likely to die if they don get the machine.
One would recover based on known outcomes.
The other will not or over 50% like it I not and it's older.
Which one the try to save?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 15, 2020, 07:55:07 am
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery.
In mid March in Europe you may feel similar symptoms with a) cold (because people underestimate the still low temperatures while sunny days already), b) flu - because the flu season, c) hay fever - allergy season starts - people with pollen allergies and asthma, d) others. Thus only a test will tell you more..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 15, 2020, 09:46:56 am
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Have you ever been to Italy?

Yes I have. And I have driven a car around central Rome. If you can survive that, you can survive anything.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 15, 2020, 11:10:59 am
China is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. They have a LOT more human and construction resources to move around and focus than a country with 60 million people (Italy). If Australia had the same infection rate as Italy, they would likely be making hard choices on who to save as well.

I don't think it is population and resources. It is mindset. The communist government from the top would have decided to remove all red tape (no pun intended) to get the job done. Whoever project managed the building of the hospital in China in six days deserves the Nobel Prize for project management :-+.

The problem in Australia is the plethora of rules and regulations (building regulatory authorities, state government, local government etc) would stifle any fast path to building a hospital. If the Italians have anywhere near the building regulations we have, they have no hope either.

Still, making the choice of who lives and who dies based on age, is age discrimination by definition and that is illegal here. Based on probability of death (not just on age, but many factors) - that might be their exit clause. In any case, it is likely most democratic governments will be held to account on their preparedness and handling of the pandemic after it is all over.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 11:37:14 am
I don't think it is population and resources.
I agree.

Consider Finland: the government still insists that it is impossible, that our legal system does not allow, for any kind of border controls between Finland and other EU countries, not even to restrict the spread of the pandemic.  The politicians here really, really don't want their population replacement program through humanitarian immigration to be jeopardized in any way.  They even announced they won't test patients for the coronavirus anymore, "as the numbers don't matter much anymore".

It is completely a matter of will and being in charge.  Being in charge means being responsible for something, and that's a big no-no for Finnish politicians at least: they always need to have a scapegoat at hand, in case things go pear-shaped.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 15, 2020, 12:17:58 pm

[...]
The politicians here really, really don't want their population replacement program through humanitarian immigration to be jeopardized in any way.
[...]

Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 01:37:04 pm
Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?
It is not a conspiracy theory, it is just a consequence of their actions.

They believe, like the worker movement in 1918 in Finland believed, that Finland is doomed unless it merges with a larger union.  They aren't evil, or conspiring; just ignorant and wrong.  They genuinely believe that unless they replace Finns with humanitarian immigrants, something bad will happen to everyone; that it must be done for the world to be safe.  Sometimes that bad thing is genetics ("we need better genes", even though most humanitarian immigrants suffer from consanguinity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consanguinity) more than Finns), sometimes it is the aging population ("we need someone to wipe our bums when we are old", even though employment rate among the immigrants is significantly lower than average, and raw numbers indicate each humanitarian immigrants is financially a negative net loss on average for the society), sometimes it is "white man's burden" (the tar in most slave ships was produced in Finland), sometimes international obligations, sometimes something else.

Did you know that Finns are basically what remains of the hunter-gather population all over Europe, up till agriculture came along?  (See e.g. this (https://www.aaas.org/news/science-stone-age-skeletons-suggest-europes-first-farmers-came-southern-europe), a report by Swedish archaeologists, using bog corpses dating back 5000 years.)  No, neither do Finns.  We are still taught in school that we displaced Sami people, coming from a bend somewhere in the river Volga.  And that we should be ashamed for our history.  Being a proud Finn is worse than announcing oneself as a reborn Adolf Hitler.  Try waving a Finnish flag on a sunny non-national holiday, and you will be spat on.

Fifteen years ago, at Helsinki University, I took the mandatory Swedish class.  The lecturer asked the students how they identify themselves: as Helsinki'ers, as Finns, or as Europeans.  95% of the students -- everyone except me -- said they identify themselves primarily as Helsinki'er, then as an European, and laughed the idea of identifying as a Finn.  That is how deeply self-loathing is ingrained in current youth.  (Me, I'm a barrel-raised woodland creature, and as basic [in the derogatory sense] a finn as you can get.)

Everything I am saying here is easily verifiable.  I am not implying that there is someone wringing their hands together, cackling evilly, with a plan on how to replace the population in Finland with immigrants.  I am just saying that the current actions inevitably lead to that.

The most important of those actions, in the current pandemic, and pertinent to this thread, is their absolute refusal to even consider reinstating border controls.

The reason for that is that while the majority of Finns have clamored for border controls ever since 2015, and returning humanitarian immigrants to the safe EU countries they came from, our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls. 

If they now reinstated border controls, even for curbing the spread of the pandemic, they would immediately prove they have lied to Finnish citizens for years.

So, instead of doing the sane thing and protect everyone living in Finland by instating health inspection based border controls,
our beloved leaders are still claiming it would be illegal for them to do so.

The only reason to do so, is 1) to avoid being exposed as a liar, and 2) to avoid risking their long-term desire, of Finland being a haven for humanitarian immigration.

This is not a conspiracy theory, or any theory at all, because the first reason is a consequence of the second, and there are no other reasons stated by our politicians in the media (or even in private).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 15, 2020, 01:57:39 pm


here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life?  :)

   I won't say that :) :)

But Christmas only comes once a year! (Must be a heck of an orgy though if it's the whole town!)  :)

   Nah, I'm retired so now so Christmas comes most days of the year. Christmas Florida is one of those sort of hick places where they celebrate all of the time, if you know what I mean.

    FWIW my BIL lives in North Pole (Alaska)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 15, 2020, 02:16:43 pm
.. our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls.  ..
Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 15, 2020, 02:18:40 pm
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery.
In mid March in Europe you may feel similar symptoms with a) cold (because people underestimate the still low temperatures while sunny days already), b) flu - because the flu season, c) hay fever - allergy season starts - people with pollen allergies and asthma, d) others. Thus only a test will tell you more..
In general I tend to keep away from threads like this because I suffer from hysteria induced narcolepsy, but a real quick FYI:

Coarsly chop up onion, put in handkerchief, crush onion, inhale the sulfur goodness. No magic bullet (duh), but useful tool. The main component in this case being the anti-inflammatory one. Also anti-viral, but lets work under the assumption that the preventative ship has already sailed. You want to reduce or inhibit the inflamatory response induced by the viral infection making friends with your immune system.

If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.

Quote
Ninja-ing your local friend asthma patient's inhaler and huffing that also works /some/ but in general is frowned upon. Plus those are typically corticosteroids, so not the best match IMO as treatment in the early stages. AFAIK they are useful at the later stages though. Aaaanyways, trying not to get into it. Short version: inhale an onion and with a bit of luck enjoy the reduced discomfort. Cheap, easy, scalable, no substitute for proper medical care, but better than nothing in a situation where the relevant medical resources are somewhat strained. Good luck!

The normal, typical asthma inhalers are short acting beta2-adrenoceptor agonists  not corticosteriods. These 'reliever' inhalers - colour coded blue in the EU - typically contain salbutamol/albuterol but some use formoterol/eformoterol - those are the two commonest, there are others. These are only taken in immediate response to asthma symptoms and are the only asthma treating drug that is likely to offer some symptomatic relief in ARDS.  The dose delivered by a pocket inhaler is unlikely to be effective, both because of dose and delivery mechanism. People with ARDS probably are being treated with sympathomimetics like this, but by nebulisation of a solution with oxygen (producing a fine cloud of droplets that can be inhaled). Typical dose of salbutamol from a pocket inhaler 200ug, typical dose from nebulisation 2mg repeated every 15 minutes until an effective response is seen.

Sometimes atropine analogues are also given as relief medication (e.g. ipratropium bromide aka atrovent). Green colour coded asthma inhalers contain long acting beta2-adrenoceptor agonists and are given as preventative treatment on a regular basis to people with more serious cases. Brown colour coded inhalers are corticosteroids designed to damp down the immune response and prevent asthma symptoms from occurring in the first place when used on a regular basis. Use of corticosteriods would be specifically contraindicated in the presence of infection unless concomitant therapy was given for the infection. Some inhalers contain a mixture of types of medication (e.g. Symbicort, a long acting beta2 agonist (formoterol) with a corticosteroid (budesonide)) - there is no standard colour coding for combination inhalers.

Best you stick to not giving pharmaceutical/biomedical advice as you clearly don't know what you're talking about. Kindly remember that "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing".

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 15, 2020, 02:20:26 pm
Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?
It is not a conspiracy theory, it is just a consequence of their actions.

They believe, like the worker movement in 1918 in Finland believed, that Finland is doomed unless it merges with a larger union.  They aren't evil, or conspiring; just ignorant and wrong.  They genuinely believe that unless they replace Finns with humanitarian immigrants, something bad will happen to everyone; that it must be done for the world to be safe.  Sometimes that bad thing is genetics ("we need better genes", even though most humanitarian immigrants suffer from consanguinity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consanguinity) more than Finns), sometimes it is the aging population ("we need someone to wipe our bums when we are old", even though employment rate among the immigrants is significantly lower than average, and raw numbers indicate each humanitarian immigrants is financially a negative net loss on average for the society), sometimes it is "white man's burden" (the tar in most slave ships was produced in Finland), sometimes international obligations, sometimes something else.

Did you know that Finns are basically what remains of the hunter-gather population all over Europe, up till agriculture came along?  (See e.g. this (https://www.aaas.org/news/science-stone-age-skeletons-suggest-europes-first-farmers-came-southern-europe), a report by Swedish archaeologists, using bog corpses dating back 5000 years.)  No, neither do Finns.  We are still taught in school that we displaced Sami people, coming from a bend somewhere in the river Volga.  And that we should be ashamed for our history.  Being a proud Finn is worse than announcing oneself as a reborn Adolf Hitler.  Try waving a Finnish flag on a sunny non-national holiday, and you will be spat on.

Fifteen years ago, at Helsinki University, I took the mandatory Swedish class.  The lecturer asked the students how they identify themselves: as Helsinki'ers, as Finns, or as Europeans.  95% of the students -- everyone except me -- said they identify themselves primarily as Helsinki'er, then as an European, and laughed the idea of identifying as a Finn.  That is how deeply self-loathing is ingrained in current youth.  (Me, I'm a barrel-raised woodland creature, and as basic [in the derogatory sense] a finn as you can get.)

Everything I am saying here is easily verifiable.  I am not implying that there is someone wringing their hands together, cackling evilly, with a plan on how to replace the population in Finland with immigrants.  I am just saying that the current actions inevitably lead to that.

The most important of those actions, in the current pandemic, and pertinent to this thread, is their absolute refusal to even consider reinstating border controls.

The reason for that is that while the majority of Finns have clamored for border controls ever since 2015, and returning humanitarian immigrants to the safe EU countries they came from, our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls. 

If they now reinstated border controls, even for curbing the spread of the pandemic, they would immediately prove they have lied to Finnish citizens for years.

So, instead of doing the sane thing and protect everyone living in Finland by instating health inspection based border controls,
our beloved leaders are still claiming it would be illegal for them to do so.

The only reason to do so, is 1) to avoid being exposed as a liar, and 2) to avoid risking their long-term desire, of Finland being a haven for humanitarian immigration.

This is not a conspiracy theory, or any theory at all, because the first reason is a consequence of the second, and there are no other reasons stated by our politicians in the media (or even in private).

My take on it is - there is nothing wrong with being proud of your country and flying your flag.  But that must never become a reason to sh!t on other people or countries,  and you must never lose sight of the fact that you are not perfect.  (I have been to Finland, and liked it!)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 02:23:23 pm
.. our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls.  ..
Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.
I have no idea, and the media is unwilling to ask such questions.

Searching Finlex (https://www.finlex.fi/en/), I'd say they are lying, but that too would make me a conspiracy theorist, wouldn't it?

My take on it is - there is nothing wrong with being proud of your country and flying your flag.  But that must never become a reason to sh!t on other people or countries,  and you must never lose sight of the fact that you are not perfect.  (I have been to Finland, and liked it!)
I absolutely agree.

While I rail against things like Finns not recognized as indigenous (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_peoples#Europe), it is not that I want some "privilege"; I just want us to look at history honestly, and learn from it, instead of using fictitious history as a political tool.

The "non-indigenousness" of Finns has been used as a political tool for over a hundred years, and even in the face of archaeological DNA evidence, there seems no end to it.  It is at the core of the beliefs that lead to the emotional need for Finland to be part of or replaced by something bigger.  I mean, respected researchers have rejected the DNA evidence, and instead state that linguistic theories are more reliable, because those theories can be used in guilting people to follow some political ideology/agenda or other.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 15, 2020, 02:33:15 pm
Finland may close their borders anytime, as they wish. There cannot be such a law which forbids that. An EU country still may decide on its borders even it is a part of Schengen Area (26 countries incl. Finland).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 02:40:35 pm
Finland may close their borders anytime, as they wish. There cannot be such a law which forbids that. An EU country still may decide on its borders even it is a part of Schengen Area (26 countries incl. Finland).
Yes, I agree.  However, the reason why Finland hasn't instated even spot health checks, or tracked people who came from the infection hotspot, is as I explained above.  It skirts dangerously close to political discussion, but my point is, Finland is hurting in this pandemic because of really odd politics.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 15, 2020, 02:46:51 pm
Finland may close their borders anytime, as they wish. There cannot be such a law which forbids that. An EU country still may decide on its borders even it is a part of Schengen Area (26 countries incl. Finland).

The government could legally do that, but the current government seems to be preoccupied on giving public statements that sound like they are still talking from the opposition to their voters, instead of understanding they are the ones leading now. Instead of taking any action, there is a lot of talk about far-away goals. And a lot of lying that they "can't" do something when it's matter of not wanting to do it; even if it's something that's rational, and have the people's support behind.

Actually, the current government has the habit to dismiss any legal options by lying about any action being "against international agreements", of course never specifying which mystical agreement they refer to. Further, the government has the option to change laws (including withdrawing from any international agreement); that's what they technically exist for. But this isn't understood here, neither by the government itself, or the media.

The number of infections went down today here, due to the new policy of practically next to no testing. It's not necessarily a bad idea to decide not to test - but then it needs to be clearly stated that the situation is not under control, as it's unknown how many infections we have.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 02:56:14 pm
Off topic story and joke time.

The reason there is no "Finnish Supremacy" movement is that the entire idea is utterly absurd to even the most ardent fennophile.

(Even the "Soldiers of Odin" and the banned "Nordic Resistance Movement" here are nordic, inclusive of Swedes and Norwegians and Danes, not fennocentric.  The closest thing that comes to it is the Greater Finland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suur_Suomi) meme.  The actual movement is basically about cultural preservation among Finnic peoples.  The map meme is absurdist, related to Help Helper, Spurdo Spärde, and so on.)

An old joke describes the typical Finnish mentality to the teeth:

An American, a German, a Swede, and a Finn are on a safari in Africa.  They come across a big elephant, with huge tusks.
The American thinks, "If I could get that in a zoo in America, I'd be a millionaire within a year!"
The German thinks, "The sheer amount of power in that animal!  If I could tame it, I could build a bridge in a day!"
The Swede thinks, "Just think of the number of likes I'd get on instagram if I could get a selfie with her on the background!"
The Finn thinks, "I wonder what that elephant thinks of me."

If you walk around in Finland, and see a Finn looking at you with their brow furrowed, there is a 90% chance they are wondering what you think of them.  They don't speak to you first, because they are ashamed of their accent, and don't want to bother you.  The 10% chance is that they just have a resting bitch face, and weren't actually looking at you.

I'm not kidding here, by the way.  Younger folks in cities are much more social (I blame social media), but in general, the above applies.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 15, 2020, 02:57:49 pm
.. our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls.  ..
Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.

Lying and manipulation doesn't need to follow such logic. This is of course sad from the health of democracy viewpoint...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2020, 03:28:49 pm
Off topic story and joke time.

The reason there is no "Finnish Supremacy" movement is that the entire idea is utterly absurd to even the most ardent fennophile.
I have visited Finland (Helsinki) several times for work. One of the Finnish people told me that Finland is the land of lost wars. Still there is quite a bit to be proud of for the people of Finland. Just start with Nokia.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 15, 2020, 03:49:58 pm
The "non-indigenousness" of Finns has been used as a political tool for over a hundred years, and even in the face of archaeological DNA evidence, there seems no end to it.  It is at the core of the beliefs that lead to the emotional need for Finland to be part of or replaced by something bigger.  I mean, respected researchers have rejected the DNA evidence, and instead state that linguistic theories are more reliable, because those theories can be used in guilting people to follow some political ideology/agenda or other.

This is not specific to Finland, by the way. This has been used in other countries as well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 15, 2020, 04:05:24 pm
Do we have to be careful using other people's hot snot?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 15, 2020, 04:23:07 pm
Although this is semi-off topic, I think I should point out the main reason some Finns, like me, complain about the so-called "population replacement program".  It is not so much about that happening, but it happening because the people making it happen think they are doing something completely different.  It is a derisive term.

You see, on one hand, immigration to Finland is non-trivial.  You are required to prove you can provide for yourself and your family.  A friend who had worked for years at an University as a researcher, paying their taxes and everything for years, lost their job due to organizational changes, and got a whole month to leave Finland.

On the other hand, if you declare yourself as an asylum seeker on the border, you can stay in Finland for as long as you like, and get all the benefits citizens get plus extra on top (from nonprofits and for-profit companies dealing with humanitarian immigration to Finland).  When you get the decision that you do not actually qualify as a refugee according to UN definition (like the vast majority does), you can simply refile your asylum request.  Furthermore, the judicial system has decided not to try and deport those asylum seekers convicted of violent crime.

(Part of that could be that unlike Sweden and Norway, Finland does not have repatriation agreements with the countries most of these immigrants originate from.  Part of it could be the weird Finnish type of corruption; a lot of the judges and prosecutors belong to Demla (https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demla), an originally communist and social democrat organization established in 1954 devoted to "social justice", now claiming to be "apolitical".  Anecdotal statistics of known members indicates their actions have a heavy political bias.  Of course, I do believe they themselves believe they are doing the right thing, and therefore do not consider it corruption at all.  A similar bias exists in Finnish media, who like to tout themselves as the most Free in the world, while admitting freely that they feel their task is to be the gatekeeper, to select what the Finnish populace should hear about, and what should not be talked about.)

In general, Finns view ordinary work-related immigration favourably, but the humanitarian immigration much less favourably.  According to a 2010 poll, 60% of Finns were in favour of stricter humanitarian immigration controls, and 41% were in favour of relaxing work-related immigration rules.  So, it is not like Finns view all immigrants negatively, it is the disparity between the rules, and the consequences of those disparities, that many Finns object to.

When we look at population statistics, if the current trend in humanitarian immigration continues in Finland, Finns will be a minority by somewhere between 2040 and 2100.  (Humanitarian immigration to Finland has occurred in steps in a very short interval, all from 1990 onwards, so it is difficult to extrapolate the trend from the data.)

The reason I call the humanitarian immigration efforts in Finland "a population replacement program" is because of that is what it leads to, even if/when the people behind it have different purpose in mind.  It is a "program" because none of the politicians in charge take responsibility for it, and claim that these policies are dictated by law and by international agreement; that their hands are tied.

It is completely uninteresting and unimportant to discuss which policy is preferable/good/bad/whatever, because there is no objective right or wrong in politics.  It's up to those in Finland to discuss and agree what they want to do and how, just like it should be everywhere else, in my opinion.

My intention in this thread (and in some other threads where I've brought up some aspects of this) is to highlight the machinery and methodology these politicians use to make people believe their political choices are self-evident truths bound by law and international agreement.

I probably should use some less loaded term instead of "population replacement program", but all the other ones I could think of are just as loaded on the other side -- like "humanitarian immigration", when it really is about 90% misusing the UN refugee programs to gain a financial advantage; they aren't being that humanitarian towards the actual refugees who could use that help instead.

This is related to the topic at hand in that the main tool used by some politicians in their drive wrt. immigration, is now endangering a the population in Finland, as travel restrictions are kept off the table.  The rapid growth in the number of infected proves the danger.  The fact that testing is now stopped (for all except health services personnel, and politicians of course), proves just how far they are willing to go.

Because of these reasons, I believe Sweden will be the hardest hit in Europe (fraction of population infected), followed by Finland.  (In Finland, I expect Helsinki, Turku, Tampere and Oulu to be the hardest hit, with everywhere else having much lower fraction of infected.)
This largely depends on what kind of restrictions on travel each country sets (internally), though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 04:34:31 pm

here? Where? You didn't set your country code  :)

   Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".

so one might wish you "good There and Happy New Year"  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 04:40:34 pm
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery. I got pneumonia before when swimming in too cold water so I'm familiar with the feeling (which was much worse than it is now though).
Quote
That is what kills people.
I hope not; I'd like to stick around for a bit longer. Needless to say I'm staying at home.

here you get examination if your temperature is higher than 37.5°C
if you can't breath, feel lack of oxygen, then you should get a swab

besides that it will take time to manage and check all the data, but unless I misremember, severe cases are just 10%
most people get along with mild symptoms and some do not even realize he/she got the virus

in any case we should take care of every life rather than of the fucking markets
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 04:47:55 pm
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)

Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?

pure bullshit
there is no age discrimination but it is like war
when resources are limited a doctor might chose to devote them to people more likely to recover and that doesn't depend on age (a 101 old chines man fully recovered and suffered only quite mild symptoms) but on general health conditions

e.g. a 30 years old may be affected by a last stage cancer and other pathologies, while an 80 years old one may just have the virus
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 04:51:29 pm
Still, making the choice of who lives and who dies based on age, is age discrimination by definition

there is no case of age discrimination, just fake news
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 15, 2020, 04:56:18 pm
but it is like war

The first casualty is the truth?  Plausible, but we were already dealing with the mainstream press.  If you want the hyperbole look there, extrapolate back to reality.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 05:10:42 pm
but it is like war

The first casualty is the truth?  Plausible, but we were already dealing with the mainstream press.  If you want the hyperbole look there, extrapolate back to reality.

just fake news...
there are plenty of that even here...
people who speak about unlikely protective masks, unlikely remedies and so on
enough is enough

The sad truth is rather that Germany even stole a large quantity of protective masks bought from China and unboarded in Amburg just because they were in transit there and they have forbidden individual protection devices export.

The same thing happened to me.
I had ordered respiratory masks (3M aura FFP3 grade) for other purposes in mid February from Conrand. They were "soon available". But at the beginning of March they deleted my order because of the export ban.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 05:16:49 pm
As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.

just see this (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308):

Quote
A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well. To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees Celsius and low specific and absolute humidity). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. We have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: CatalinaWOW on March 15, 2020, 05:20:10 pm
All of this talk about what you can or can't do in various countries is not entirely correct.  A business leader I respected highly created a slogan "YAGOTTAWANNA"  which is probably easily understood by most English speakers. 

The company involved responded to an urgent need by building an office building in 30 days, from ground breaking to occupancy.   Far less than the usual 6 months to a year for similar buildings.  It involved breaking a lot of rules, ignoring inspection requirements, equal opportunity bidding, competitive bidding, minority preferances and any number of other regulations.  That 30 day interval is not the limit on how quickly it could have been done, but reflects the time frame of the requirement.  Greater need would result in greater speed, though I am not sure that here in the US we could match the Chinese result.
 (Also not sure what the specs on that Chinese hospital were.  Military field hospitals can go up in a matter of hours.)  But that building was built correctly and is still in use a quarter century later.   There were consequences, fines, post construction demonstration of code compliance and many, many instances of retaliatory go slow on subsequent building projects.  But the need was met and the costs were just what it took to get it done.

The same thing applies to the current COVID crisis.  Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action.  If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it.  If the results are middling anything could happen.  And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions.   

The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories.  In my country the problem is not just at the top.  Too much attention is being paid to gaining political points and not enough to identifying the situation and then selecting and implementing responses.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 15, 2020, 06:21:10 pm
bullshit... or more precisely cow shit and urine... as coronavirus cure  :palm:

Hindu group touts cow urine elixir for coronavirus (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-hindu-group-touts-cow-urine.html)

 :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2020, 06:46:33 pm
The NL goes into lockdown for the next 3 weeks. This causes long lines with people who want to get some weed while they still can:
(https://storage.pubble.nl/16c0059b/content/2020/3/b2363833-5a48-4150-bc54-e1263d9ff332_thumb840.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 15, 2020, 07:00:59 pm
........
The same thing applies to the current COVID crisis.  Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action.  If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it.  If the results are middling anything could happen.  And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions.  ......

Strongly agree. I would add that NON-ACTION is a huge part of the analysis.

.....The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories.  In my country the problem is not just at the top. .....

Again, I strongly agree, but there is and has been a HUGE problem at the top and it can not be understated. The relevant SMEs referred to this as the one we were expecting. They have been routinely discounted by many who, through denial or arrogance, refused to listen.

You must know Fauci and while I do not know him personally, I have attended his talks many times over many years. So often in the last two months, he has appeared almost as an Island in a sea of chaos.

In contrast to the "Top's", denials, chronic bungling, chaotic miscommunications, walk backs of what was said only a few hours earlier, and the stark contradictions voiced  by people who actually are SME or listen to those with SME. Despite all of this, we are seeing many Governors putting operations in place and explaining exactly what they are doing and why. We are seeing the medical Institutions putting sound judgement into action. We are seeing a a coalescence of rationality. While it may never be complete, I believe it will become dominant.

..... Too much attention is being paid to gaining political points and not enough to identifying the situation and then selecting and implementing responses.....

Again, I agree, but that is the norm for pretty much everything in the age of media over exposure. In this thread, I have been critical of some of the specific missteps made "at the top". Yes, criticism suggests blame, but, in my view, it is warranted here and now. It is part of the consequences that you speak of and those consequence will be felt forward...in November.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mrflibble on March 15, 2020, 07:18:56 pm
First of all, thanks for your reaction. It did make me reread my own post and realize that I wrote either too much or not enough, depending on how you look at it. Just enough to potentially cause trouble, and not nearly enough to clearly convey things without risk of miscommunication. I mostly intended it as a "hey are you aware of xyz" and mostly expect others to do their own check & double checking. Case in point, rereading it, the tongue in cheek way in which I worded the bit about the corticosteroids was a bad plan. And the way you describe how it's probably used in relation to ARDS is indeed how I understood it as well, at the stage where they are on the ventilator. Anyways, so either I write a whole lot more to cover everything, or a whole lot less. To make it a responsible post is going to take too bloody long, working out notes, hunting down references etc. Nope, not that invested. So deleted my post because it was a bad idea.

The one thing that does puzzle me a tiny wee bit is:

If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.
This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much. I believe the phrase we're looking for here is "fatal inflammatory response". It's a common theme in entirely too many pathologies... So maybe I don't understand you correctly?  :-// To keep it within the current context, read for example this one:

https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf (https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf)

Anyways, thanks for the sanity check. :-+
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mrflibble on March 15, 2020, 07:21:03 pm
The NL goes into lockdown for the next 3 weeks. This causes long lines with people who want to get some weed while they still can:
(https://storage.pubble.nl/16c0059b/content/2020/3/b2363833-5a48-4150-bc54-e1263d9ff332_thumb840.jpg)
ROFL! Classic! ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 15, 2020, 07:41:08 pm
Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).  The beaches have been absolutely PACKED until now.  This is where a huge portion of the 10's of thousands of spring breaker college students come over From March - the end of April.  Beach is closed till April 12.  Bars have a curfew of 10pm and must limit their capacity by 50%.  (it's about time)  THIS is gonna get interesting.

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/15/watch-live-miami-beach-fort-lauderdale-officials-discuss-spring-break-crowds-and-covid-19-outbreak/ (https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/15/watch-live-miami-beach-fort-lauderdale-officials-discuss-spring-break-crowds-and-covid-19-outbreak/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 15, 2020, 07:51:24 pm
too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 15, 2020, 08:22:24 pm
The one thing that does puzzle me a tiny wee bit is:

If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.
This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much. I believe the phrase we're looking for here is "fatal inflammatory response". It's a common theme in entirely too many pathologies... So maybe I don't understand you correctly?  :-// To keep it within the current context, read for example this one:

https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf (https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf)

Anyways, thanks for the sanity check. :-+

I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there. Treatment for this is rapid dosing with immunosuppressant drugs (such as large doses of systemic corticosteroids) which is a two edged sword - yes, the immunosuppression does limit the damage being caused to the body by its own immune system, but it also damps down the bodies efforts to kill the virus responsible for the problem in the first place. By the time you get to this point you are very lucky if the treatment is successful and you survive. For the treatment to succeed it must balance on the knife edge of damping response enough to minimise harm, while still permitting enough response to still fight the disease.

To be clear, all non-specific immune responses involve inflammation as part and parcel of the immune response. Anybody who has had a cut or insect bite get red and swollen has experienced this. The inflammation is one of the indications that your immune system has gone to work. It is the result of all sorts of immune cells moving to the site of 'insult', attracted there by cytokines being released at that site (cytokine - cyto = cell, kine = mover - a class of signalling hormones). Cytokine storms are where the immune signalling has gone into overdrive and the cells recruited by one kind of cytokine themselves release other cytokines and a positive feedback loop develops and the system becomes unstable. The resident denizens will recognise this as one of the body's control loops falling out of control by operating under circumstances that the control loop's 'designer's' compensation scheme didn't account for.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 15, 2020, 08:22:56 pm
Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

Just in... breaking news, unsurprisingly the rate of STD's and alcohol poisoning has dwindled while demand for online adult  and video chat sites subscriptions have skyrocketed!  :-DD

https://www.inertiatours.com/when-is-spring-break-2020/ (https://www.inertiatours.com/when-is-spring-break-2020/)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4AdymVcxCU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4AdymVcxCU)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: ebastler on March 15, 2020, 08:30:11 pm
too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

Yes, it's a bit too late.  ;)
That video has been posted earlier in this thread: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 15, 2020, 08:41:06 pm
too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

Yes, it's a bit too late.  ;)
That video has been posted earlier in this thread: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432)

It's also quite dated for the situation, being a month old. The same guy has a couple newer videos on the subject.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: jonovid on March 15, 2020, 09:05:33 pm
anything for a good butt wipe
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 15, 2020, 09:39:32 pm
just see this:

Quote
...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 16, 2020, 01:27:56 am
pure bullshit
there is no age discrimination but it is like war
when resources are limited a doctor might chose to devote them to people more likely to recover and that doesn't depend on age (a 101 old chines man fully recovered and suffered only quite mild symptoms) but on general health conditions

e.g. a 30 years old may be affected by a last stage cancer and other pathologies, while an 80 years old one may just have the virus

It's called triage and it is done any time you have more need for medical care than you have care to dispense. It's not a rare situation, difficult choices must be made, and logically it may make sense to help a younger person who potentially has decades more to live and a better chance of making a full recovery than to spend those same resources on an older person who might live a few more years at best and have less chance of recovering given the same treatment. In a world of finite resources there will always be situations like this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 16, 2020, 01:54:18 am
Sad but very true.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 16, 2020, 01:57:55 am
Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).

  Did they actually close the beach or just close all of the parties and other student activities?

  A friend of mine took his family to Cocoa Beach today.  It's usually almost empty but he said that it was fairly crowded today.   

    Floridians are rediscovering those natural sources of entertainment that existed here before the big commercial Theme Parks' propaganda convinced everyone that you had to spent $500 per day to have a good time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 02:15:03 am
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 16, 2020, 03:59:58 am
Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).

  Did they actually close the beach or just close all of the parties and other student activities?

  A friend of mine took his family to Cocoa Beach today.  It's usually almost empty but he said that it was fairly crowded today.   

    Floridians are rediscovering those natural sources of entertainment that existed here before the big commercial Theme Parks' propaganda convinced everyone that you had to spent $500 per day to have a good time.

Physically closed the beach.  Put up cones and have officers (some on horseback) patrolling and kicking people off the beaches.  I saw some pictures earlier but cant find them now.

Quote
“We cannot become a petri dish for a very dangerous virus,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said Sunday during a joint news conference at Miami Beach City Hall. “Spring break is over. The party is over.”

Fort Lauderdale beach — the sandy section — will be closed from Harbor Drive north to Oakland Park Boulevard. Miami Beach will close the beach from Fifth Street to 15th Street —the uber trendy section known as South Beach. Even its public parking garages will close and an 11 p.m. curfew will be strictly enforced.

Fort Lauderdale’s rules are in effect now through April 12.

Violators can risk a $500 fine or 60 days in jail.

“We clearly want to encourage voluntary compliance, but we could arrest or issue notices to appear if necessary," Fort Lauderdale City Manager Chris Lagerbloom said.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: metrologist on March 16, 2020, 04:01:42 am
Yes, it's a bit too late.  ;)

I knew I could count on you.  :-+
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: magic on March 16, 2020, 06:29:10 am
Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action.  If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it.  If the results are middling anything could happen.  And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions.   

The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories.
That was tested and failed a few weeks ago, before first cases occured in Europe/America. We could have had all the same border lockdown but without internal chaos.

What's tested now is how our beloved leaders react under panic conditions ;)
A common reaction is "nothing can be done just accept it" which of course shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 16, 2020, 09:12:08 am
This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much.

yes
they are successfully using Tocilizumab (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tocilizumab)
BTW I see that wikipedia is up to date and even mentions usage in Italy
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 16, 2020, 09:18:54 am
just see this:

Quote
...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.

well if you do not like how science works you can always try cow urine (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2965132/#msg2965132)  ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 16, 2020, 09:23:05 am
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 11:33:10 am
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 16, 2020, 11:51:53 am
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 16, 2020, 12:11:04 pm
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.

I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 16, 2020, 12:54:43 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 16, 2020, 01:05:48 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Let's go further:

Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks

Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0

(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 16, 2020, 01:22:08 pm
I don't think that this link has been posted before - sorry if it has.

2020.03.12 A Coordinated Boston Response to COVID19

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 16, 2020, 01:22:39 pm
Amazon and eBay are cracking down on sellers of coronavirus items at inflated prices

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51909045 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51909045)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 16, 2020, 01:34:04 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Let's go further:

Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks

Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0

(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)

But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 16, 2020, 01:39:08 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

I like the analysis.   But of the 10,000 infected people - how many of them will be out shopping as usual, rather than staying in bed?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 16, 2020, 01:44:22 pm
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Your calculation only makes sense if the distribution is random.. You should make that more accurate by using the number of infected people in your county (or even, town).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 16, 2020, 02:04:13 pm
I find it interesting how a current statistical fact is completely miss-leading.

In the UK currently more people have died from the virus than have recovered.

Of course this is the case as there hasn't been enough time for people to recover but sadly enough time for people to die.   The data is also skewed because the UK are no longer testing for the virus, except for severe and critical cases, so registered active cases are much more severe.  The stats on severe/critical cases will also get skewed in the UK as a result.  It will look like more cases are severe and more people die.

I just hope the media don't go to town on these stats to scare people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 16, 2020, 02:13:54 pm
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascorbic_acid) "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 16, 2020, 02:38:15 pm
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

Indeed, hence this isn't the best time for the full-blown survivalist to shine; even a semi-survivalist strategy is enough to do what is necessary, namely slow down the spread so that the healthcare system can deal with it without collapsing.

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...

Exactly!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 16, 2020, 02:55:15 pm
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascorbic_acid) "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)


See Galit Aler's presentation beginning at slide 42. It is precisely what you are discussing here. There does appear to be a dysregulation of the immune response early on and in some patients. I think that, as suggested in the presentation, this is being targeted for therapy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 02:58:24 pm
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 03:03:05 pm
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

That's making the assumption that the infection circulates forever in the general population. It does not, or we'd still all be dropping like flies from the Bubonic Plague of the middle ages. Of course we are not, and we don't have active immunity to the Bubonic Plague either.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 03:19:39 pm
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.
The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.

As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes.  That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly.  (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)

If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me.  From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascorbic_acid) "showed promise".

I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo.  At best, it might actually help a little.

First off, you'll always see some examples of cytokine storms if you look at enough patients. It's a known complication of any serious viral infection for certain patients. People's immune systems vary, and some are more prone to over-reaction than others. Ask anyone with allergies (slightly disingenuous as different mechanisms are in action, but it serves as a simple exemplar).

The vitamin C thing is interesting, and I bet Linus Pauling is smirking in his grave. One of the non-specific immune responses is to release highly reactive free radicals as a means of destroying invaders. This does that, but also causes oxidative damage to host tissue at the same time. Remember that in the case of a viral infection it is our own cells that have been commandeered by viral RNA/DNA that are the enemy. So it is inevitable that both 'good' and 'bad' hosts cells get clobbered by this kind of response. Using a systemic anti-oxidant such as vitamin C may well be an effective method of limiting the undesirable oxidative damage - we probably won't know until this is all done and dusted. As you say, vitamin C has very low toxicity and, while it may yet prove to be another folk remedy, the risk/reward ratio for using it looks pretty good.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 16, 2020, 03:49:03 pm
I don't think that this link has been posted before - sorry if it has.

2020.03.12 A Coordinated Boston Response to COVID19

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)

   Good article. Thanks for posting.  :-+
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 16, 2020, 04:03:17 pm
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...

The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...

In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed. If you are over 70, might be better to bunker up and wait for a vaccine, but avoiding all contact for maybe months could be quite hard.

Either way, this would be a good practice run for "The Big One". Work out what supplies you need, how long they keep, how often you need to cycle stock etc.

I think the big problem with prepping is that individuals will be very vulnerable. To survive, you will need to be in a group, and in a location that is defensible. So building a network of like minded people, and scouting for good sites is as essential as having a stock of spam and ammo.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 16, 2020, 04:04:52 pm
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

I think the most likely explanation is that dogs don't shed enough virus to cause infection.  That could be pretty hard to measure in the midst of a crisis.

Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 16, 2020, 04:14:23 pm
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.

I don't know why you would say that when we have so much well-documented viral zoonoses. Maybe I am just not understanding.

"Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species."

OK, take herpes B for example. There are clearly documented cases of infection to humans after exposure (scratch or bite) to macaques. Indeed, the macaque is barely symptomatic other than shedding...the human, unfortunately can develop encephalitis in a couple of days. The infected human can also infect other humans.

Same virus. same infection albeit dramatically different effects. What am I missing?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 05:27:08 pm
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.

Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.

The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.

All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.

I don't know why you would say that when we have so much well-documented viral zoonoses. Maybe I am just not understanding.

For a virus to pass from say, birds, to people it needs to be able to infect both. Sometimes this is the case, most often it is not. Sometimes it happens because a strain randomly mutates so that it would infect another species (mutation in viruses happens all the time) and encounters a new species of host at the same time. Most of the time it doesn't encounter the new species and dies out. Crossing species is the exception not the rule. Vets don't catch Parvo from dogs, vets don't get immune deficiency by catching FIV from cats.

Viral zoonoses are comparatively rare. Bacteria zoonoses are not (e.g. Psittacosis). Bacteria and viruses are worlds apart, viruses need a fully working cell that is compatible with their biochemistry to reproduce, bacteria just generally need warmth, wet and food. You can grow a bacteria on an agar plate, viruses require tissue culture in a compatible species cells. Look at all the diseases that are commonly transmitted between humans and other animals - the vast majority are bacterial or parasitic. The rare viral ones typically require very specific hosts on both sides.

Some viruses only require very evolutionarily primitive cell biology, using cell biology that is common to whole sections of the evolutionary tree. Rabies is one - it'll infect most mammals -  but it's still limited in what it can infect, you won't find a lizard with rabies.

Quote
"Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species."

OK, take herpes B for example. There are clearly documented cases of infection to humans after exposure (scratch or bite) to macaques. Indeed, the macaque is barely symptomatic other than shedding...the human, unfortunately can develop encephalitis in a couple of days. The infected human can also infect other humans.

Same virus. same infection albeit dramatically different effects. What am I missing?

A macaque is, like you and me, a primate. There's a much smaller difference between species of primate than there is between primates and dogs.

Look at it another way. The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. The part that says "how to get into a cell to reproduce" has to have a mechanism for doing so, usually this is by 'recognising' a surface protein on the cell and using that to leverage the cell's active transport mechanisms to get into the interior of the cell. If that protein isn't there, or it's a slightly different shape because it's the dog variant rather than the human variant, then the virion never gets to deliver its genetic payload to the cell, so no infection happens.

Lets go back to the computer analogy. If part of that 30,000 instructions is "how to infect a computer" and the virus was targetting Windows then it would fail to infect MacOS because MacOS doesn't expose the same interfaces on the outside that Windows does. They're both x86 operating systems so they have similar mechanisms for, say, networking but the exact details of the networking interfaces of Windows that might allow a virus to get its payload through are different on MacOS and so the virus fails to 'infect' its host.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 16, 2020, 05:39:40 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 05:46:38 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.

From that article:
Quote
University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.

In vitro and in vivo are two very different things. It could easily fall at the first hurdle. Just because the drugs work in a test tube is no guarantee that they will have any effect in a real living host. The good news is that they are both active, approved drugs with known safety profiles - it would seem there is no significant barrier to going ahead with a clinical trial with extreme speed. Who knows, they may get lucky.

Oh, and the named one of the two drugs, chloroquine, is as cheap as chips (unless you're in the US where all drugs cost many more times more than they do in the rest of the world).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 16, 2020, 05:47:34 pm
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

I think the most likely explanation is that dogs don't shed enough virus to cause infection.  That could be pretty hard to measure in the midst of a crisis.

Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.

At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 05:53:24 pm
At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.

Or to put it in terms that most people will be familiar with it's a "DNA fingerprint" (really an RNA fingerprint). It'll tell you the virus is there, but not in what quantity. The PCR bit is Polymerase Chain Reaction and refers to amplifying the RNA found into a detectable quantity by making very many copies of it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 16, 2020, 06:01:20 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.


   Read about the James Cai case here https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html (https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html)and also look at the follow up.  James was treated with the same two drugs and he credits them and the Chinese researchers who recommended them with saving his life. For the ones of you that continue to think that this virus is no worse than the annual flu virus, James was a young healthy man with no medical conditions but Corona virus almost killed him.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 16, 2020, 06:18:29 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.


   Read about the James Cai case here https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html (https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html)and also look at the follow up.  James was treated with the same two drugs and he credits them and the Chinese researchers who recommended them with saving his life. For the ones of you that continue to think that this virus is no worse than the annual flu virus, James was a young healthy man with no medical conditions but Corona virus almost killed him.

I've seen stories from other doctors who were telling people to be no more afraid of it than the flu and then they started dealing with it and changed their minds. They didn't even have to get it themselves.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)

Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.

From that article:
Quote
University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.

In vitro and in vivo are two very different things. It could easily fall at the first hurdle. Just because the drugs work in a test tube is no guarantee that they will have any effect in a real living host. The good news is that they are both active, approved drugs with known safety profiles - it would seem there is no significant barrier to going ahead with a clinical trial with extreme speed. Who knows, they may get lucky.

Oh, and the named one of the two drugs, chloroquine, is as cheap as chips (unless you're in the US where all drugs cost many more times more than they do in the rest of the world).

Yea, that's why they want to start a trial. It'd be better to have a vaccine but this could be a good intermediate step. The reason I don't think it'll be cheap has nothing to do with current costs but costs if they need to ramp up production. I haven't researched the drugs uses outside of HIV(other than one being an anti viral) but if they're not used widely otherwise you'd be supply constrained so the price would go up with those who have the money likely being able to get it first. Especially with this being all over the world.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 16, 2020, 06:49:48 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 16, 2020, 06:54:06 pm
In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed.
This is not your normal queue for toilet paper, where whoever first reaches the aisle is rewarded with truckload of TP, while the others are rewarded with empty shelves.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 16, 2020, 06:57:38 pm
In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed.

Actuall, this is a good strategy to overwhelm medical resources and further reduce the probability of a favourable outcome for the elders.
Still, the best strategy if your philosophy is "screw everybody else, I am the only one who counts".

Yes, and this is a good textbook example of a case where a state-held system for controlled violence, administred by the police and military, is used for an important purpose, to force such people to take others into consideration.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 16, 2020, 07:05:57 pm
..The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. ..
The virus is a chunk of RNA encapsulated into "the debris" of the cell's outer membrane (the cell which burst because of the mass-produced RNA). Thus the "how to get into the cell" is not coded in the RNA itself, but specified rather by its encapsulation - and while it is made of the cell's outer membrane the barrier to enter into an another identical or "similar" cell is almost nil, imho.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 16, 2020, 07:13:25 pm
just see this:

Quote
...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.

well if you do not like how science works you can always try cow urine (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2965132/#msg2965132)  ;D
It seems you have a lot of aspiration for science. Keep on trying, don’t give up, and take my advice. Today I am giving it away for free. When googling for something that can prove your theory, don’t search for words like “urine”. Try something different. ”Chi-squared test”, for example.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 16, 2020, 08:01:34 pm
..The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. ..
The virus is a chunk of RNA encapsulated into "the debris" of the cell's outer membrane (the cell which burst because of the mass-produced RNA). Thus the "how to get into the cell" is not coded in the RNA itself, but specified rather by its encapsulation - and while it is made of the cell's outer membrane the barrier to enter into an another identical or "similar" cell is almost nil, imho.

I don't mean to be harsh but 'IMHO' is not a substitute for actually having studied this. A virus' protein coat is encoded in its genome, it doesn't just grab scraps of a cell's (phospholipid) membrane on the way out, it gets its host cell's ribosomes to manufacture its coat proteins. Take a look at a T4 bacteriophage and tell me how it constructs the complex protein coat (including a 'hypodermic') from a bacteria's shattered cellulose/phospholipid membrane. Getting into or out of a cell past the membranes is not a trivial task biochemically speaking, that's why cells have whole systems of proteins dedicated to active transport, ion channels in cell membranes and so on, and active mechanisms to resist 'foreign' biochemicals simply wandering into the cell.

Case in point, our friend SARS-covid-2:

Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2#Structural_biology
Structural biology

Each SARS-CoV-2 virion is approximately 50–200 nanometres in diameter.[50] Like other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 has four structural proteins, known as the S (spike), E (envelope), M (membrane), and N (nucleocapsid) proteins; the N protein holds the RNA genome, and the S, E, and M proteins together create the viral envelope.[51] The spike protein is responsible for allowing the virus to attach to the membrane of a host cell.[51]

Note in particular that very last bit about the virus' spike proteins. The structural similarity of the spike protein to antibodies is no accident, it performs a similar task to 'recognise' and attach to surface expressed proteins on a target cell. Why would it code for a membrane protein if it was just going to snatch a cell's phospholipid membrane to do the job?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 16, 2020, 08:18:03 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
Just for clarity: it wasn't the same PM as in 1973. Still it is impressive. Never thought I'd see the day but yet here it is.

His main message  was that most people will get infected at some point (which is what Merkel; the PM of Germany also stated a couple of weeks ago). The efforts are aimed to control the outbreak so health care can keep up. Makes sense to me because that seems the only way to me to keep both the economy going and reduce loss of life.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 16, 2020, 09:14:59 pm
Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.

At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.

So how do they do an "N-gene-specific quantitative RT-PCR assay", as described in this article:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext)

Is it a lot more difficult than the pass/fail test you describe?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 16, 2020, 09:27:37 pm
Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative?  How about the antibody tests?  I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.

At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests.  The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus.  Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration).  This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength.  They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.

So how do they do an "N-gene-specific quantitative RT-PCR assay", as described in this article:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext)

Is it a lot more difficult than the pass/fail test you describe?

Have a look at "Real-Time RT-PCR Panel for Detection 2019-Novel Coronavirus - Instructions for use":

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/rt-pcr-panel-for-detection-instructions.pdf (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/rt-pcr-panel-for-detection-instructions.pdf)

If anybody wants to see the proteins that are encoded, have a look at a sequenced virus:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 16, 2020, 09:41:23 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
What happened in 1973?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 16, 2020, 09:56:53 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
What happened in 1973?
That was the oil crisis.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 16, 2020, 10:03:46 pm
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
What happened in 1973?

Probably the oil embargo from the Arab producers aimed at nations supporting Israel in the Yom Kipper war. Global oil prices quadrupled as a result, and many were impacted by the lack of supply, including the US (I was a teen driver at the time).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 02:55:59 am
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
Just for clarity: it wasn't the same PM as in 1973. Still it is impressive. Never thought I'd see the day but yet here it is.

His main message  was that most people will get infected at some point (which is what Merkel; the PM of Germany also stated a couple of weeks ago). The efforts are aimed to control the outbreak so health care can keep up. Makes sense to me because that seems the only way to me to keep both the economy going and reduce loss of life.

   But you've missed an important point: at this point it little matters what happens to the economy.  The entire planet is faced with the possibility of MASSIVE numbers of deaths due to overloaded medical systems.  Right now, they're making hard decisions about the best way to keep as many people alive as possible. Yes, short of some sort of vaccine being invented EVERYONE is going to get it. And even in the best medical conditions, an average of 3.4% of the infected people are dying. That's 10 million people in the US alone and about 230 million world wide. However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it.  Go look at Italy right now, they CAN'T deal with the current rate of increase, Iran is just as bad, South Korea was but now seems to be getting some control on it. Spain is losing control, so is France and Germany and the US is close behind. The US could be much worse since, thanks to the incompetence of the CDC, we still don't actually know how many people are already infected. Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours!

  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 17, 2020, 03:01:22 am
CDC did it's job with projections, but the administration refused to pay heed to their warnings for a couple months and kept them muzzled until the damage was done.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 17, 2020, 04:21:26 am
I'm in the ER and at least it isn't busy. Stricter rules than normal though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 04:41:41 am
Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours!
What did you expect if Canadian idiot health officials were saying ,as the toll was rising in China, if you see a Chinese person come say you support them and shake their hand.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 17, 2020, 07:37:37 am
However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it. 

I've been chewing on this point for some time.

If we want to limit infections to the point where hospitals can deal with it (say 10k active cases at any time, in Italy), and cases take 20 day to resolve, that is a rate of about 500 serious cases per day, and with about 20% of cases needing hospitalization, that is 2,500 new cases per day of any severity.

Italy has 60,000,000 people, so to not swamp the health system it will take 60,000,000/2,500 = 24,000 days (or 65 years!) if everybody was to get it without swamping the health system.

Even if Italy was to grow the ability to have 100k cases in hospital, that is still 65 years.

Assume Italy can have 100k hospital beds, and only 10% of the population get infected. that's still 1200 days of full hospitals with a perfectly managed rate of transmission.

They way I see it, it will either get stamped out through infection control, or the hospital system will get swamped. There isn't a middle ground. Anybody who thinks "flattening the curve" is a workable long term plan probably hasn't done the math.

(any correction to assumptions gladly accepted!)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 09:09:52 am
   But you've missed an important point: at this point it little matters what happens to the economy.  The entire planet is faced with the possibility of MASSIVE numbers of deaths due to overloaded medical systems.  Right now, they're making hard decisions about the best way to keep as many people alive as possible. Yes, short of some sort of vaccine being invented EVERYONE is going to get it. And even in the best medical conditions, an average of 3.4% of the infected people are dying. That's 10 million people in the US alone and about 230 million world wide. However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it.  Go look at Italy right now, they CAN'T deal with the current rate of increase, Iran is just as bad, South Korea was but now seems to be getting some control on it. Spain is losing control, so is France and Ger

In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 09:14:08 am
That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.
[/quote]

SARS and COVID-19 are also transmitted via feces...
I've non idea why, but AFAIK nobody observed pet-to-human transmission
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 09:18:00 am
Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours!
What did you expect if Canadian idiot health officials were saying ,as the toll was rising in China, if you see a Chinese person come say you support them and shake their hand.

probably because people are so stupid to think that every Chinese is a virus carrier while there are a lot of "Aryans" who travel to China and other countries and spread the virus everywhere

discriminating Chinese people besides being unfair and immoral is counter-productive regarding the fight against virus spread
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 17, 2020, 10:12:00 am
Pensioners still cannot get basics at their supermarket. I just got back from our local supermarket. No toilet paper, no meat, no eggs, no pasta, no tissues, not nothing except junk food. The local chemist has run out of basic meds too. The supermarkets are out of control as is our government. Scott Morrison, our Prime Minister, triggered the panic by telling people to stock up.

The state government should impose limits and use the police to fine the hoarders. Better still, use batons on them. Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 10:24:34 am
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.

I'd expect two weeks or thereabouts for the effect to become visible. Basically, incubation period.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: magic on March 17, 2020, 10:57:00 am
Meanwhile in Poland...

Even isopropanol sells for $10 per liter now :-DD

Thankfully I have some stock for personal use.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 11:30:44 am
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 11:57:37 am
Quote
All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.

And even that varies wildly. In Germany, we have quite a number of confirmed infections (more than 7000, if you believe JHU, a little over 6000 reported to RKI) but a very low CFR (0.2%).

IMHO, this means two things:
- Germany is still at the very beginning of the wave and not many critical cases had the time to come to closure.
- We have a good test coverage.

Alternative:
- we're incredibly sloppy in our testing and the CFR is much higher in reality.

Germans, sloppy?  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 12:10:18 pm
Tune in tonight for some serious CAR CRASH TV!

Quote
Coronavirus: German Big Brother cast to be told about pandemic live on TV

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-51923334 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-51923334)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 17, 2020, 12:18:23 pm
..
IMHO, this means two things:
- Germany is still at the very beginning of the wave and not many critical cases had the time to come to closure.
- We have a good test coverage...
In Markus Lanz talk show (11.3.) your expert said Germany CFR is low because of very early testing start and good testing coverage..

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BU508A on March 17, 2020, 12:27:57 pm
(https://i.imgur.com/NDZJ9F5.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 12:30:23 pm
Hello and greetings from germany. I want to share  one thing which i think is important and is not understood in europe.

Here the Media and politics say: Don't wear the Mask, the mask doesn't protect you. only wear the mask if you are infected.

Yes, right, the mask doesn't protect you if you are not infected. But, the mask, even cheap and selfbuilt masks, protect others if you are infected and wear it.

But corona is transmitted absolutely mostly by peaple who do NOT feel sick and don't think they are infected. So they don't wear the mask.

But wehen everybody has to wear the mask, then automatically all those infected peaple who cannot know thar they are infected, would also wear the mask.

I think this is THE main difference between the west and asian countries like china and southkorea.

So wear the mask, even if you feel good, because you cannot know if you are transmitting the virus or not. You don't wear the mask to protect you, but to protect everyone else in case you are infected. So everyone should wear the mask.

And change the mask regularly. When you wake up, build yourself 5 or so Masks from kitchen roll paper and use the masks during the day. use them when you are with other people. and flush used masks in the toilette. (just the paper, not the string).

Just do it! Thank you! Sarry for my bad english. Stay well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 12:32:49 pm
Leave the masks for those people that need them most.  They are in seriously finite supply.

Best advice to sum what you should do up is this:

If you want to slow the spread of the virus you have to act as if you already have it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 12:43:07 pm
Quote
Leave the masks for those people that need them most.  They are in seriously finite supply.

Yes, build your own masks. The mask is not to protect you, so you don't need good expensive masks. Selfbuilt masks will protect others relatively good if you are infected and wear them.

Quote
If you want to slow the spread of the virus you have to act as if you already have it.

Exactly! So ... wear the mask as everyone sould do who is infected. Wear selfbuilt masks like the people in china and southkorea are doing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 17, 2020, 12:47:34 pm
Wearing masks (even DIY) is absolutely essential !!!
Who is saying it is not is an idiot !!!

https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/

PS: an absolutely primitive DIY mask has an effectiveness (to stop droplets) of about 25%.
That is a pretty good number when talking statistics of random processes..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:00:39 pm
Here in Europe and in the US they are saying you shouldn't wear the mask because they will not PROTECT YOU.

It is NOT about protecting YOU. it is for protecting ALL OTHERS if you were infected.

Yes, there is a shortage. so build your own masks.

Please: Share the information, this thought.

Sidenote, why do you have a very good mask for protecting YOUSELF, but a selfbuild will be good enought to protect others from you?

If you want to protect yourself, you want the mask to filter out very tiny droplets with the virus. and you breath normal. Norman breathing is slow. so if the mask is not perfectly tight at the edges, the air gets sucked around the filter and with the air the droplets.

But if you are ill and cough and sneeze, you droplets get shot out very fast. not around your cheap selfbuilt mask, even if there is an airgap at the sides. the droplets get shot in the paperfilter from kitchenroll and get not in the air.

So build you masks. they are good to protect others from you. Behave as if you were infected even if you feel good.

Sidenote2:
I think there might be a mental difference between people in europe and asia. Here the society is very selfish. I think people don't want to wear the mask if it is not fro there own protection. In asia the society seems to me as a german very less egoistic but the whole people is more important. so the asien men/women is more likely to wear the mask because of the greater good to protect society.
This is just my feeling from germany where people still shake hands with the words "i don't feel ill, how likely can it be that I am infected?" But corona is exactly spread by this group of people. People who feel goot but are infected because they
a) are in the incubation phase or
b) have a very mild corona.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 01:09:19 pm
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on March 17, 2020, 01:12:12 pm
Wearing masks (even DIY) is absolutely essential !!!
Who is saying it is not is an idiot !!!

https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/

It makes me chuckle when everyone wears masks. Like a surgeon operating on someone, the mask stops them breathing ON to the patient/surgical-opening, not the other way around. Unless it is a 'specialized' mask, that virtually hermetically seals around the wearers nose/mouth, they are breathing in general 'air' all around the masks edges!!.... but I guess it's better than nothing...

MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 17, 2020, 01:12:24 pm
The attitude changes from day to day (an EU capitol city here).
A week back people where watching others with masks with a suspicion ("OMG, are they infected??")
I've just returned from shopping (groceries full of people and goods, incl TP) and I've seen maybe 2 people not wearing masks. Interestingly many were wearing gloves as well.
PS: you are required to wear a mask when entering a bus, train, tram here, btw.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:16:08 pm
Quote
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

It seems you don't understand.

Corona has a very long incubation time and even after this incubation time many people with corona don't feel ill. So there are many people who don't knot that they are transmitting the virus because they CAN'T know.

The ill corona pations are not transmitting because they stay at home or are in hospital. It is EXACTLY the people who feel fine but are infected who are transmitting the virus.

The sould wear masks of course and to archive that, EVERYONE has to wear a mask. ever if it is selfbuilt. Because if everyone wears the mask, then automatically everyone who is feeling goot but is actually infected would also wear the mask.

so wear the mask, even if you feel good because you cannot know that you are not infected. behave as if you were infected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:18:58 pm
Quote
Like a surgeon operating on someone, the mask stops them breathing ON to the patient/surgical-opening, not the other way around.

Exactly this is why everyone should wear the mask. you should not wear the mask for your own protection, but because you might be infected. with corona you cannot know that you are currently not infected and transmitting, even if you feel good. so wear the mask to protect others from you.

Quote
PS: you are required to wear a mask when entering a bus, train, tram here, btw.

Not here in southern germany. and not in the US.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 01:23:49 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 01:25:30 pm
Okay, -gb-, let me just take the advice of someone on the internet and ignore all the official information.  Yea.  :palm:

I'll just go and join a few Facebook groups for extra advice and see if "Karen on facebook" knows better too.

As I said, the only way to slow it is to act as if you already have it.  Unless being around other people is ABSOLUTELY essential it should be avoided.  If you are around other people, wash your hands often.  If you want to make a home made mask, knock yourself out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 01:26:37 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.

They also, apparently, have the oldest population in Europe.  The triaging of patients was no managed well, the hospitals over flowed and people who needed care could not get it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 01:37:56 pm
Quote
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

It seems you don't understand.

Corona has a very long incubation time and even after this incubation time many people with corona don't feel ill. So there are many people who don't knot that they are transmitting the virus because they CAN'T know.

The ill corona pations are not transmitting because they stay at home or are in hospital. It is EXACTLY the people who feel fine but are infected who are transmitting the virus.

The sould wear masks of course and to archive that, EVERYONE has to wear a mask. ever if it is selfbuilt. Because if everyone wears the mask, then automatically everyone who is feeling goot but is actually infected would also wear the mask.
It is not going to help. The virus is already lingering in too many people. Even if the virus is blocked right now it will pop-up later on. The Corona virus is going to become seasonal flu. The only way out is to slow down the spread to a pace where the health services can keep up and develop a vaccine for old and weak people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 01:40:39 pm
Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.

Yes yes I got one !

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:42:08 pm
Quote
Okay, -gb-, let me just take the advice of someone on the internet and ignore all the official information.

No, you shouldn't. you should start thinking. The official advice is to not wear the mask becaus it will not protect you. that is absolutely right. but the official advice is not considering, that there are other reasons to wear the mask. exactly that others will be protectet if you are infected and wear the mask.

that is also what officials say, you shoulkd wear the mask if you are infected. but with corona, infected persons have for about a week not method ob knowing that they are infected. they feel fine. but they are infected and should wear the mask as officials say. so ... how do we achieve that hey who caanot know they are infected all wear masks? Right, we all wear masks becaus then they will be includes ans also will wear the mask.
Think! It is not magic. but this thought is completely missing in the media.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 01:49:08 pm
Quote
It is not going to help. The virus is already lingering in too many people. Even if the virus is blocked right now it will pop-up later on.

very right. but now it should be contained that the hospitals are not beeing overrun. loot at italy. they had between 2% and 3% dead persons among all infected. after arond 2nd march, the hospitals were overrun and now the have 7.7% dead of all infected. http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto (http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto)
2158 dead among 27980 totally infected is 7.71%.

This too much, we cannot risk that. we should at least try to contain corona, keep the number of infected at any time low ... till there ia a medicine.

China had the total quarantine on many citys. they now have loosened up thes method, because their health system is no longer overrun. but they still habe some new infected every day. to prevent the epidemic from starting again they have to continue with some actions till there is a medicine. so what we will see from china and southkorea is, that even as the have stopped the initial outbreak, they will continue to wear all masks so long till there is a medcine. otherwise the epidemic will start again.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 17, 2020, 01:51:23 pm
Italy and quarantine (quaranta giorni, meaning "forty days") - a pretty long history, Italy has been a leading country in coping with diseases usually coming form Asia and Far East via maritime transport:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 17, 2020, 01:53:47 pm
Quote
Okay, -gb-, let me just take the advice of someone on the internet and ignore all the official information.

No, you shouldn't. you should start thinking. The official advice is to not wear the mask becaus it will not protect you. that is absolutely right. but the official advice is not considering, that there are other reasons to wear the mask. exactly that others will be protectet if you are infected and wear the mask.

Clearly you "Did your research!" Karen.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on March 17, 2020, 01:57:13 pm
Ok. One last point though. Our Prime Minister here in Australia has admitted, in being honest, that virtually nothing is going to stop the spread of the virus. The IMPORTANT point he made, is that we are/need to control it on a "Flatter Curve", than otherwise, so that it remains manageable within the hospital/medical system, regarding beds/resources etc. for the duration.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zucca on March 17, 2020, 01:59:21 pm
Italy was hitten so hard because we realized too late what was going on. I have also to say that we are very transpaternt with the numbers and we have nothing to hide.

Just please stay home.

This is the only defence we have.

PS: The virus is getting close to my family in Italy right now, it's not funny. Once it knocks on your door, it's different than reading the news.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 02:15:36 pm
Quote
The IMPORTANT point he made, is that we are/need to control it on a "Flatter Curve", than otherwise, so that it remains manageable within the hospital/medical system, regarding beds/resources etc. for the duration.

Yes, that is the Western methon. the epidemic will stop on ITS OWN if 2/3 of the people were infected. that is true. but:

- there are other methods of stopping it, look at china/southkorea
- calculate the number of the dead even if the hospitals were not overrun and a very optimistic low 1% of all infected will die.
- calculate the timeframe.

here in germany we are about 80 million. 2/3 is around 50 million. about 5% (very optimistic) of the infected will need intensiv care at a hospital. that are 2.5 Million. so even if we succeed and flatten the curve to fully two (2) years. than that means, that there will be 2.5 Million/730 Days = about 3 000 NEW cases for intensive care EVERY DAY - for two years. that simply is too much. yes, you could flatten the curve, but not over 2 years but over 5 or 10 years. during that time, some measures must be done, that the number of infected does not rise.

So i think the only practical method is doing it als china has done. initially lower the number of infected with harsh methods. and then prevent the epidemic from starting again by prolonging some methods like wearing masks and hygiene/behavioral methods. this methods must remain in place till there is a vaccination AND the riskgroups are vaccinated. or till there is a medcine which can cure infected persons.

With this you don't have to infect 2/3 of the people. In Chine, 80 000 infected are less than 0.1% of all chinese. and they have stopped it. yes, they have new cases, but since the continue to have infection reducing methods like wearing masks, there healthsystem will not be overrun again. we should leran from them an do the same.

caveat:
The economics will break down very hard if we go the china way. but only fopr around 1 or two months. as we see, factorys in china are opening again. if we accept 2/3 of our people to infect, we accept many more dead, but economic will not break down so hard.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 02:16:23 pm
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 02:18:06 pm
PS: The virus is getting close to my family in Italy right now, it's not funny. Once he knocks on your door, it's different than reading the news.
My estimation is that by this time next year we all know someone personally who has died from the Corona virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 02:28:51 pm
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?

Maybe, but the more hard reasons are:

- the medical system is overrun.
at the begin of the epidemic, the mortality in italy was not higher than it is currently in france or spain. between 2% and 3%. then since 2nd march it is rising because the medical system is overrun.
Here are the numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy)
Today the mortality is at 7.7% http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto (http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto)

- in italy there live more old people than in china. look at these two images i attatched.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 02:38:09 pm
Before the "random advice with no science or sense mob" take over entirely.

This disease spreads from aerosolised droplets of mucus, saliva and the like carrying shed virus, or hand to mucosa transfer of the same.

If you are infected you should wear a mask, if possible, to protect others close to you from uncontrolled coughing or sneezing, to limit the extent that you spray virus all over the place when you cough and sneeze. Note that most masks are designed to stop you breathing something noxious in, not from breathing something noxious out. A cough or sneeze is still likely to push air contaminated with droplets out around the mask's filter element. This is partial protection for others, not complete protection.

If you are infected, infectious and non-symptomatic you won't be coughing and sneezing so wearing a mask just in case you're infected and don't know it will be as much use as tits on a bull. It won't stop you spreading virus all over the place by touching your eyes or nose and then touching things that others may touch - which is the other way you'll spread the disease if you're not coughing and sneezing.

The most dangerous droplets are ones approximately 10um in diameter that will float in the air and not quickly drop to the ground. These will not be stopped by a mask unless it is of a high grade and passes a fit test to minimise leaks around the filtering parts of the mask. Do not put too much faith in masks, even those of us who've had proper respirator training and know our masks fit.

Wearing a properly fitted, proper grade of mask if you're uninfected but in close proximity to people who are known or likely to be infected may offer some protection but please don't think of it as a sure-fire preventative.

For those of us that keep good quality masks as standard PPE for non-medical tasks, note that the good grade masks with one-way exit values are not the thing to use to protect others from yourself if you are infected.

Given the massive shortage of masks please do not use them if you don't actively need them. Using up what small supply you may have unnecessarily is something that you may come to regret later.

The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

The best way to avoid infection and infecting others is for everybody, infected and ostensibly uninfected alike, to follow standard good hygiene practices.


Lastly, if you are infected, or have good reason to believe that you might be infected - stay at home, do not go out in public unless strictly necessary. The question of "mask or no mask" doesn't come into it if you've put a door and some distance between you and the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 02:46:03 pm
Quote
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth. I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.

Yes, there is a mask shortage, build them for you own.

Even if wearing the mask only makes a minor difference, i think in this situation we should at least try ist. look at china/southkorea, threre they wear masks and may be have succeded.

Edit:
I just can't find a reason why we do not even try all wearing selfmade masks. there is nothing to loose.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 02:55:35 pm
Quote
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth. I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.

Yes, there is a mask shortage, build them for you own.

Even if wearing the mask only makes a minor difference, i think in this situation we should at least try ist. look at china/southkorea, threre they wear masks and may be have succeded.
No. They just wear masks for the placebo effect / false sense of security. Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all. The only thing which helps is to physically seperate people by keeping distance and keeping your hands clean. You are way too panicky. Just follow the advice from the experts.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 02:59:42 pm
Quote
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth.

Eyes?

Quote
I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.

If they are coughing and sneezing then, yes, they should bloody well be wearing masks. They ought to be in a normal cold or flu season, but that's not the way in most of Europe/the US. Perhaps it should be.

What's pointless is everybody, symptomless and symptomatic alike wearing masks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 03:00:43 pm
Quote
Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.

They do work, but they do NOT protect you if you are not infected. They protect everyone else if you are infected and wear the mask.

with corona many people do not know they are infected because they
a) are in incubation time
b) have a very mild corona
c) think it's the flu. here in europe where it's winter.

but if everyone wears a selfmade mask, then these group of infection people who don't know or don't think they are infecting would wear a mask too.

Quote
Eyes?

yes, you are rignt but not touching the mouth is at least a little reduction.

Quote
What's pointless is everybody, symptomless and symptomatic alike wearing masks.

Maybe. but what can we loose? and if the mask is mandatory, then all people who think they have only the flu would wear the mask too. why not just try it?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 17, 2020, 03:01:27 pm
Quote
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.

Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth. I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.

Yes, there is a mask shortage, build them for you own.

Even if wearing the mask only makes a minor difference, i think in this situation we should at least try ist. look at china/southkorea, threre they wear masks and may be have succeded.
No. They just wear masks for the placebo effect / false sense of security. Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all. The only thing which helps is to physically seperate people by keeping distance and keeping your hands clean. You are way too panicky. Just follow the advice from the experts.
:bullshit:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 03:12:16 pm
When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 17, 2020, 03:28:33 pm
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?

They do like my town , blew up a "low density ethylene" plant and  release petrochemistry smoke to atmosphere.  You will see that few cases are detect of coronavirus.  :-DD :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 03:53:36 pm
New study investigating stability of HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 in aerosols and on different surfaces and estimating their decay rates using a Bayesian regression model.
NOTE: This link leads to the preprint pdf which has not been peer-reviewed. Funding support by NIAID, DARPA, NSF and SERDP.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2)



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 04:20:59 pm
TL;DR on the above:

SARS-Covid-2 exhibits shortest half-lives on copper and cardboard. So by the time your PCB and its packaging get to you from China it's going to be safe.  >:D

Quote
No viable virus could be measured after 4 hours on copper for HCoV-19 [SARS-Covid-2] and 8 hours for SARS-CoV-1, or after 24 hours on cardboard for HCoV-19 and 8 hours for SARS-CoV-1.

Longest half-lives are on stainless steel and plastic - watch those hand rails and door knobs.

Quote
HCoV-19 was most stable on plastic and stainless steel and viable virus could be detected up to 72 hours post application (Figure 1A), though the virus titer was greatly reduced (plastic from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 72 hours, stainless steel from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 48 hours). SARS-CoV-1 had similar stability kinetics (polypropylene from 103.4 to 100.7 TCID50/mL after 72 hours, stainless steel from 103.6 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 48 hours).

Aerosol half-lives are long enough to be concerning:-

Quote
HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 1.1-1.2 hours, and 95% credible intervals of [0.64, 2.64] hours for HCoV-19 and [0.78 , 2.43] hours for SARS-CoV-1.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 04:36:09 pm
Reporting something from Europe, Belgium.

Well people, it's a mess.

It is an illusion to think you won't get infected by the SARS-Cov-2 virus. You will get it, by a chance of maybe 70%, eventually, because it's everywhere. You may escape infection for now by complete isolation, wearing masks, hand cleaning or mainly being lucky, but you likely won't escape it over time because it will be around for a long time. Experts all agree on it. There is no immunity and it's many times more deadly and contagious than flu. What worse cocktail of bad factors would you need?

The import thing is staying at home as instructed, disinfecting/washing your hands, keeping distance, no kissing or handshakes. The only purpose of it, is to make sure there is no overload on the hospital system and lack of medical supplies, and the infection rate slows down. If the infection rate is very high, it's good for rapid immunity across the population but very bad for society as doctors will have to face cruel choices over who can be helped and live, and who can't because there is no room or equipment. In Italy, it got out of control this way.

I would like to get this message out, especially to the Americas as the wave is coming there now. Only strict observation of the measures put in place will save lives. Over here, people only realized the seriousness of it in recent days. Before, it was more of "it won't happen to me", "I've got important business to do", "it's a joke" and "let's get infected we don't care". It's only when emergency doctors started making dramatic statements in the media of how bad this really was and that it did not only apply to elderly people, even going as far as showing lung CT scans of critically ill young persons, that people started to take notice and shut down the jokes and soften "their priorities". Also, politicians didn't do a very good job, navigating between incompetence, scientific ignorance, pleasing the electorate and taking unpopular measures. They wasted precious time.

Yesterday in the news, an emergency doctor here said something really interesting. He said they're always seeing the same pattern of people coming in: they had some moderate flu for a week at home, then it went away for two days making them think all is good, and then they show up at the emergency department, just walking in not too ill-looking, complaining about dry cough and shortness of breath. When they then take a CT-scan, they see their lungs are very critically affected by the virus due to infectuous liquid build-up and conglomeration, eventually building up scar tissue in the lungs. He said: these people are critically ill, but they just don't know it yet. They are in a life-threatening situation. He also said the age range of people currently in intensive care was 30 to 50, and that many of the patients were healthy and fit individuals with no medical background!

In Belgium, we're two steps away from a total lock-down, and luckily everyone seems to get it, for now. Schools closed, teleworking, no physical contact, etc.

Wishing you all the best and strength.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 04:37:00 pm
Quote
Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.

They do work, but they do NOT protect you if you are not infected. They protect everyone else if you are infected and wear the mask.

with corona many people do not know they are infected because they
a) are in incubation time
b) have a very mild corona
c) think it's the flu. here in europe where it's winter.
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better. False information and conspiracy theories are the last thing we need right now. If there is one time in your life to STFU and do as being told it is now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DBecker on March 17, 2020, 04:47:18 pm
It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.

SARS and COVID-19 are also transmitted via feces...
I've non idea why, but AFAIK nobody observed pet-to-human transmission

From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?

There are many other nasty things that are spread with feces, but this isn't one of them.

This virus is fairly fragile.  It's easily destroyed by sunlight, alcohol solutions, active chlorine compounds, heat, and everyday disinfectants.  It remains viable only minutes or hours on surfaces.

It readily spreads by direct personal contact and aerosol spit.  That should be the major concern.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 05:03:31 pm
This virus is fairly fragile.  It's easily destroyed by sunlight, alcohol solutions, active chlorine compounds, heat, and everyday disinfectants.  It remains viable only minutes or hours on surfaces.

It does not matter. As far as I've heard from medics, it is very very very contagious. More than flu, which is already pretty bad. Like I said, it's safe to say you won't be able to avoid it, eventually. With protection and hygiene measures, whilst absolutely useful and important, you will just slow infection rate down. And that's the current objective to save lives, i.e. to make sure hospitals can cope with the flood of cases. Btw, I've read tests have shown the virus can survive for days on stainless steel or plastic. Not sure how to avoid these materials in our current daily life.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 17, 2020, 05:03:37 pm
Here, a week ago, all the regim slut "Journalist"  laughed ,mocked , and joked of the coronavirus and of people began to worry by the pandemia.

Today , a week  after , almost 12000 infected , 510 deaths and the economy destroyed.   :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

Here, this video.

https://www.dolcacatalunya.com/2020/03/asi-se-reian-del-coronavirus-los-telepredicadores-del-regimen/ (https://www.dolcacatalunya.com/2020/03/asi-se-reian-del-coronavirus-los-telepredicadores-del-regimen/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 17, 2020, 05:10:09 pm
When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts".

Y2K
WMD
Peak Oil

Personally, I think the "experts" are likely saying what they are about face masks for one of two reasons: 1) they are simply parroting what the other "experts" are saying ("peak oil!")  2) they are trying to prevent non-medical persons from depleting the supply.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 05:17:20 pm

MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

   Italy was hit hard because they didn't quarantine the first two cases that they found back in early February.  Around the 2nd they had two Chinese tourists that were sick and were hospitalized but they allowed them to continue of their tour of the country and to go on a cruise. Weeks later when Italians started getting sick, the authorities started finally started some very limited quarantines but by then hundreds of people all over Italy were infected as well as numerous people in the surrounding countries and some had traveled back the US and to Canada.  About one week later, the number of cases in Italy exploded. Then about a week after that, the number of cases in many of the surrounding countries also exploded.

   I've been watching all of this unfold here <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/> and in many local news reports.

   Italy, the US and most other countries waited MUCH too long before they started quarantining people and before they shutdown the cruises and other densely populated events.

   The thing that people need to get through their heads is that this virus is highly infectious days before the infected start feeling it and that the infected keep shedding it in their feces for at least a week (and probably much more) after they are clinically well. So it is VERY communicable. That's also why it was STUPID for the CDC to release those early patients at Lakeland AFB and to allow some of them to go hang out at the food court of the local mall in San Antonio.  The other thing that people need to realize is that it barely affects many children and young people so they tend to go on with their normal activities BUT all the while they are exposing other people to it.

  Go watch the video of the conference that took place in Boston back in late January. They medical folks there explained all of this WEEKS ago but were almost completely ignored.

  <https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d>
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 17, 2020, 05:24:33 pm
Quote
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better.

Usually you are right. But here with Corona we, the western countrys do things very different from china and southkorea.

Regarding the masks, i would do what officials say, but there is exactly no official reason given why we shouldn't wear selfmade masks.

The official reasons are:
- there are not enough masks. yes, but this does not apply to selfmade masks.
- the mask does not protect you. yes, also right, but selfprotection is NOT the reason why i think that everyone should wear a mask.

It is, because if everyone has to wear a mask, then automatically everyone feeling fine but who is infected and transmitting is also wearing the mask. i havent either from politicians nor from media heard this thought. this is the reason why i am bringing it up here.

Here in europe and the US is wintertime, there are many people who cough and sneeze who don't wear the mask because it is flu-season. so they think it is flu but it might also be corona. they simply don't know. those people would wear a mask if wearing a mask was mandatory.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 05:30:00 pm
Reporting something from Europe, Belgium.

Well people, it's a mess.

It is an illusion to think you won't get infected by the SARS-Cov-2 virus. You will get it, by a chance of maybe 70%, eventually, because it's everywhere. You may escape infection for now by complete isolation, wearing masks, hand cleaning or mainly being lucky, but you likely won't escape it over time because it will be around for a long time. Experts all agree on it. There is no immunity and it's many times more deadly and contagious than flu. What worse cocktail of bad factors would you need?

The import thing is staying at home as instructed, disinfecting/washing your hands, keeping distance, no kissing or handshakes. The only purpose of it, is to make sure there is no overload on the hospital system and lack of medical supplies, and the infection rate slows down. If the infection rate is very high, it's good for rapid immunity across the population but very bad for society as doctors will have to face cruel choices over who can be helped and live, and who can't because there is no room or equipment. In Italy, it got out of control this way.

I would like to get this message out, especially to the Americas as the wave is coming there now. Only strict observation of the measures put in place will save lives. Over here, people only realized the seriousness of it in recent days. Before, it was more of "it won't happen to me", "I've got important business to do", "it's a joke" and "let's get infected we don't care". It's only when emergency doctors started making dramatic statements in the media of how bad this really was and that it did not only apply to elderly people, even going as far as showing lung CT scans of critically ill young persons, that people started to take notice and shut down the jokes and soften "their priorities". Also, politicians didn't do a very good job, navigating between incompetence, scientific ignorance, pleasing the electorate and taking unpopular measures. They wasted precious time.

Yesterday in the news, an emergency doctor here said something really interesting. He said they're always seeing the same pattern of people coming in: they had some moderate flu for a week at home, then it went away for two days making them think all is good, and then they show up at the emergency department, just walking in not too ill-looking, complaining about dry cough and shortness of breath. When they then take a CT-scan, they see their lungs are very critically affected by the virus due to infectuous liquid build-up and conglomeration, eventually building up scar tissue in the lungs. He said: these people are critically ill, but they just don't know it yet. They are in a life-threatening situation. He also said the age range of people currently in intensive care was 30 to 50, and that many of the patients were healthy and fit individuals with no medical background!

In Belgium, we're two steps away from a total lock-down, and luckily everyone seems to get it, for now. Schools closed, teleworking, no physical contact, etc.

Wishing you all the best and strength.

   Good post, you covered the situation well.  I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu! Like the guy on here 13 days ago that told me that in Germany they only had 50 cases and that it wasn't anything for them to worry about. As of this morning, Germany has over 8,000 cases and has added 812 new cases in the last 24 hours.

   FYI in my part of the US they just announced that they are extending all school closings to the end of the spring semester instead of just to the end of the spring break (announced only a few days ago).  It's sort of obvious that they're trying to break the bad news us slowly and not all at once.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: magic on March 17, 2020, 05:32:21 pm
SARS-Covid-2 exhibits shortest half-lives on copper and cardboard. So by the time your PCB and its packaging get to you from China it's going to be safe.  >:D
Did anyone test soldermask and ESD foam? That's the important question ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 05:35:43 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

It's math, basically. Each tick you miss on the x-axis of an exponential (infection) curve gets you hit by a smack of multiples on the y-axis. Add to that you need to look 14 days in the future on the x-axis, and there you have it. Italy was the first country outside Asia so they were taken by surprise. And they have a difficult demographic, too. I bear with the Italian people. If you ask me, and hopefully I will be wrong, the US is totally unprepared as well. It's understandable in some way, this is unprecedented. You just can't convince the general public to take "wartime measures" when only 20 people are infected.

Italy, the US and most other countries waited MUCH too long before they started quarantining people and before they shutdown the cruises and other densely populated events.

The Americas have no idea of what is coming their way now. Just like we had no idea of what was coming our way when the Italian case was considered "local". As you said, the incubation time is very long and it is very contagious, so anything you do now based on current evidence, you should have done two weeks ago. The only way to slow infection in the future is a drastic temporary halt of society life as we know it with measures beyond the current situation, and strict obedience by the population. Easier said than done.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 05:37:50 pm

From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?


  As a matter of fact, yes I do. https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)  According to it, the virus remains active in fecal matter for over a week after the person is clinically "cured".  Given that viruses like warm moist environments I suppose that it shouldn't be a surprise that it can be found in fecal matter, even after the patient is "cured".

   This could help explain some of the "reinfected" individuals and spreading from"cured" individuals that were noted in China.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Black Phoenix on March 17, 2020, 05:49:34 pm
Well probably already reported here:

Portugal closes the borders to contain the spread of virus, specially from Spain:

https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-and-portugal-partially-seal-their-borders-over-coronavirus-covid19-outbreak/ (https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-and-portugal-partially-seal-their-borders-over-coronavirus-covid19-outbreak/)

https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/portugal-to-close-border-with-spain-to-tourists-120031600058_1.html (https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/portugal-to-close-border-with-spain-to-tourists-120031600058_1.html)

https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/business/article241209116.html (https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/business/article241209116.html)

Compared with Spain, currently we have less than 350 cases and 1 death. Although there are a lot of border between both countries without any type of control, specially in the south by sea.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 05:55:09 pm
Quote
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better.

Usually you are right. But here with Corona we, the western countrys do things very different from china and southkorea.

Regarding the masks, i would do what officials say, but there is exactly no official reason
Here in europe and the US is wintertime, there are many people who cough and sneeze who don't wear the mask because it is flu-season. so they think it is flu but it might also be corona. they simply don't know. those people would wear a mask if wearing a mask was mandatory.
There is an official reason given: hands are a very important means of transportation of a virus. Even when you keep a distance. Touch your face anywhere and you have the virus on your hands ready to deposit it anywhere (remember your eyes and ears have a direct connection to your nose and mouth!). A mask could even be counter effective because now the virus is smeared all over an infected person's face and enjoying the ride waiting for getting transferred to the person's hands.

Edit: I'd like to emphasize flyte's remark: wartime measures. I told my kids that this situation is way worse compared to Chernobyl (which had the western part of Europe in a state of panic IIRC).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 05:55:25 pm
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu! Like the guy on here 13 days ago that told me that in Germany they only had 50 cases and that it wasn't anything for them to worry about.

Well, that's an easy one to convince people.

Citing virologist Marc Van Ranst: What is the difference with the flu?

Obviously, for 85% percent of the population this will be like a good flu, but if you're into that unlucky other 15% part, then you may get very ill, need intensive care like artificial coma and assisted respiration or possibly die. For a country like the US, that small unlucky 15% is about 50 million people. Now count how many free hospital beds there are, let alone specialized life saving equipment. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 06:04:56 pm

Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.


   The US is in the same situation.  The CDC bungled the early (NO) testing so we don't have any real numbers to go by EXCEPT the number of dead.  They've finally approved some states and a couple of private labs to do testing but I see that in my own state there are still 158 people AWAITING testing as of their last report.  That's significantly more than the total number of officially infected people at the time. However the CDC and the Florida State Health Department are no longer reporting any official numbers so that's a BAD sign.

   The administration said last week that they would have the capability of doing over 1,000,000 test per week by this week but I'm not seeing it. They are reporting higher number of officially infected cases but from everything that I can find out, the doctors and hospitals are still having to BATTLE the CDC to get an official tests performed and the back log for testing is in the hundreds in most, if not all, states.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 17, 2020, 06:14:58 pm
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu! Like the guy on here 13 days ago that told me that in Germany they only had 50 cases and that it wasn't anything for them to worry about.

Well, that's an easy one to convince people.

Citing virologist Marc Van Ranst: What is the difference with the flu?
  • it's more contagious
  • it's more deadly
  • there is no vaccine
  • there is no antiviral medicine
  • nobody has antigens, nobody is immune to it

Obviously, for 85% percent of the population this will be like a good flu, but if you're into that unlucky other 15% part, then you may get very ill, need intensive care like artificial coma and assisted respiration or possibly die. For a country like the US, that small unlucky 15% is about 50 million people. Now count how many free hospital beds there are, let alone specialized life saving equipment. Let that sink in.


There aren' bed for all severe infected
There aren't doctors and nurses for replacing  to infected and deaths
There aren't mechanic breathing
There aren't safety material for avoiding to infect the medic personal.
There aren't test for coronavirus.

But we are the better healthy system of the world.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 17, 2020, 06:17:21 pm
The handling here is a mess. A gal I'm friends with who works in one of our offices in another state has been sick recently, the symptoms are different than Covid but she decided to get tested anyway. She ended up spending a couple hours in a waiting area full of sick people, most of whom had masks but not everyone did and several were coughing all over. They took her to another room for a swab and then sent her back to the waiting area, then 45 minutes later to a hallway to swab for some other disease then back to the waiting area. Now it's a matter of waiting to hear the results, but I suspect she did not have Covid going in but was almost certainly exposed to it in the hospital. This sort of thing really reinforces my thought that it is best to not go anywhere near a hospital unless I'm seriously ill and believe I have it already.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 06:33:53 pm
Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

Edit: I want to add that there is a reason that I put "study" in quotes. After my first reading, this is an intelligent modelling position to guide policy - and that is certainly my opinion. I just want to make sure that we understand that it is not a published and peer-reviewed study. I intentionally avoid headlining a few numbers and statements. I understand the TL;DR mindset, but the other side is - didn't read enough to understand more than the headline, bottom line, bullet, short version, 10-second sound bite. I mean no disrespect to anybody here - we are all more similar than dissimilar.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 06:37:24 pm
Pensioners still cannot get basics at their supermarket. I just got back from our local supermarket. No toilet paper, no meat, no eggs, no pasta, no tissues, not nothing except junk food. The local chemist has run out of basic meds too. The supermarkets are out of control as is our government. Scott Morrison, our Prime Minister, triggered the panic by telling people to stock up.

The state government should impose limits and use the police to fine the hoarders. Better still, use batons on them. Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.

that's crazy
we are the most affected country in the world at the moment (in China the epidemic is over or sort of) but apart form some medical and personal protection devices we have plenty of food, cleaning products, etc in the supermarkets

I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 17, 2020, 06:45:04 pm
From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?

  As a matter of fact, yes I do. https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)  According to it, the virus remains active in fecal matter for over a week after the person is clinically "cured".  Given that viruses like warm moist environments I suppose that it shouldn't be a surprise that it can be found in fecal matter, even after the patient is "cured".

   This could help explain some of the "reinfected" individuals and spreading from"cured" individuals that were noted in China.

You're both right, or both wrong.  Virus was detected, but there's no known case of transmission by that route.  It is not known if it is possible.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 06:51:05 pm
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.

it does mean something unless you change the measuring (testing) method since virus has not mutated yet

here tests are performed to people with temperature of 37.5°C or above and COVID-19 compatible symptoms

if you take strict quarantine measures and go on with that sort of test you have a valid feedback to check the effectiveness of the quarantine as the percentage of symptomatic vs asymptomatic doesn't change much... it is a constant from a statistical POV

obviously there is a time lag and now we get the figures of (symptomatic) people infected days ago
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 17, 2020, 07:06:12 pm
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu!
You have completely misunderstood what I and others have said.

The point is that flu is dangerous: very deadly pandemics occur about three times a century.  We have not had a really bad influenza pandemic for decades now, and that is probably why people like you think that flu is not extremely serious.  The average death toll from influenza is over half a million dead, worldwide, each year.  It is worse than a regional war!

My point is that we, as a species, are behaving exactly like the idiots who build cities on a flood plain, and then run around panicing when the next bad flood comes along.  We live on a planet with a LOT of dangerous things, and influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.
While most annual flu seasons are "mild" -- you know, mild, like conventional war among a handful of countries --, every now and then a nasty variant comes along and kills a measurable fraction of the total human population.

There is nothing surprising, nothing exceptional, in this coronavirus pandemic.  It, or something like it, was fully expected; just not when or which virus.

The Chinese response to the outbreak is absolutely commendable.  In the aftermath, if we ignore the circle-jerking politicians congratulating themselves how well they managed the situation, we'll find that while the Chinese response was drastic, it was the most efficient course of action, both in human lives and in financial terms.  The question, that will not be answered in public in the West, is why we did not do the same, and why we haven't planned well enough for this even though we knew that this will happen -- just not when --, and that all signs point to this not being nearly the worst kind that we should be ready to expect.  (And don't tell me "we cannot", because we bloody well can.)

Like influenza, this coronavirus spreads mostly via droplets in exhalation.  If people wear a scarf or anything in front of their mouth, they drastically reduce the amount of virus-laden droplets they spread.  If people also wear gloves, without touching their face (or exhaled droplets) with those gloves, they minimize the spread of the virus.  Because it looks like a major part of the spread occurs before the person realizes they are infected, it is crucial that people who believe they are healthy behave as if they were infected, and try to avoid spreading the virus through droplets in their own exhalations.
If everyone did this, the pandemic would be over in three weeks.

The reason social isolation and self-quarantine is recommended, is that it works better than the above.  A single person is smart, but people are stupid as hell; you'd always have the one Typhoid Mary who thinks they don't have the virus, and do shortcuts that keep the infection spreading.  You know, the sly wipe of the nose, or cough in your gloved hand, when nobody is looking.  The only thing that works with stupid, is making stupidity harmless; and that's what isolation does.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 07:08:25 pm
Wearing masks (even DIY) is absolutely essential !!!
Who is saying it is not is an idiot !!!

https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/

PS: an absolutely primitive DIY mask has an effectiveness (to stop droplets) of about 25%.
That is a pretty good number when talking statistics of random processes..

well I had bought ten FFP3 breathing masks about one year ago

now I just have one left that's in good condition
I wear that when I have to get out and then sanitize it by an isopropanol bath (I was lucky to get 5 liters for just 19 euros, now they are out of stock)

I also wear disposable nitrile gloves to help me remember not to touch my face (you may get infected by touching your eyes - your mouth and nose should be protected by the mask)

I'm confident I'm safe if I keep a safe distance from other people
if somebody else sneezes or cough near me I'm likely to get infected
medical staff do need full face masks

BTW no mask protects you if you are so stupid to raise it to smoke a cigarette or to kiss somebody you do not see since long (you can't imagine how many idiots you can immediately spot when you get out)

the most important thing is: get out as little as possible, just to buy food and medicines if you or somebody you care for needs them
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 17, 2020, 07:10:54 pm
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.  [...]

There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks,  without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness.   A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 07:12:44 pm
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?

unfortunately yes... it looks like there are just plenty of idiots out there
I could shoot plenty of photos about them, but then I'd be and idiot as well as I would not abide by the quarantine for a valid reason  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 07:16:55 pm
Quote
Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.

They do work, but they do NOT protect you if you are not infected. They protect everyone else if you are infected and wear the mask.

with corona many people do not know they are infected because they
a) are in incubation time
b) have a very mild corona
c) think it's the flu. here in europe where it's winter.
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better. False information and conspiracy theories are the last thing we need right now. If there is one time in your life to STFU and do as being told it is now.
The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 07:20:49 pm
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?

unfortunately yes... it looks like there are just plenty of idiots out there
I could shoot plenty of photos about them, but then I'd be and idiot as well as I would not abide by the quarantine for a valid reason  :)

I'm afraid, yes. The head of German RKI said in a recent press conference there were people organizing "Corona Parties" and urged them to stop. Now that clubs and bars are being closed they're just trying to get on with their (anti-)social behavior as if nothing was happening. I guess it'll take public statements from medical personnel about how members of every age group are affected and potentially getting killed. I like the idea of showing CT scans of infected lungs. That's one drastic, visual statement.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 17, 2020, 07:23:54 pm
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others.  It's not rocket science.

Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?

unfortunately yes... it looks like there are just plenty of idiots out there
I could shoot plenty of photos about them, but then I'd be and idiot as well as I would not abide by the quarantine for a valid reason  :)

Case in point...

A coronavirus patient refused to quarantine, so deputies are surrounding his house to force him to (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/us/kentucky-refused-quarantine-coronavirus-trnd/index.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 07:24:31 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.

you are right
and the virus had a chance to spread in a few hospital within medical staff before being detected so it got such a strong foothold

there are plenty of people in bad condition going to hospitals and there they got an infection instead of a cure
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 07:26:47 pm
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard???  It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world??  Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources???  I don't understand!!

As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.

They also, apparently, have the oldest population in Europe.  The triaging of patients was no managed well, the hospitals over flowed and people who needed care could not get it.

True, False, False
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 17, 2020, 07:32:29 pm
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.  [...]

There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks,  without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness.   A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 07:34:53 pm
BTW no mask protects you if you are so stupid to raise it to smoke a cigarette or to kiss somebody you do not see since long (you can't imagine how many idiots you can immediately spot when you get out)

That's Italians for you! If this was spread by waving your hands around while you talk then you Italians would be right royally bangaxed!  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 17, 2020, 07:44:02 pm
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD

Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 08:03:02 pm
Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

   Wow!  The onset of infectiousness is 12 hours to 4.6 days! That should set off alarm bells!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 17, 2020, 08:09:45 pm
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu!
You have completely misunderstood what I and others have said.

The point is that flu is dangerous: very deadly pandemics occur about three times a century.

   My comment was not directed at you. I think you understand the situation better than most. My comment was directed at those who keep yelping that this virus doesn't matter because  20,000 people have already died this year in the US of the annual flu and of how many die yearly in auto accidents and other totally irrelevant numbers.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 08:17:25 pm
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.  [...]

There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks,  without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness.   A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.
Even if such a plan existed it doesn't help because the EU as a whole is so densily populated that a problem quickly spreads across all countries.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 08:29:46 pm
There is nothing surprising, nothing exceptional, in this coronavirus pandemic.  It, or something like it, was fully expected; just not when or which virus.

Yes there is. The combination of infection speed (how contagious it is) and long incubation period, makes it very dangerous. It basically means any measures you take are too late and within two weeks a good part of the world population is in a hospital bed.

Where you are right is that the pharmaceutical conglomerates did not find it lucrative enough to develop antiviral drugs for corona-type viruses like SARS and MERS, as is the case for e.g. HIV. There industry and governments massively failed there. If we had those drugs developed and on stock, it could have saved all those worst patient cases, and it could have terminated the global spread.


The Chinese response to the outbreak is absolutely commendable.

Well, the second part of it when the whole world knew about it and it got out of control. However, it is my understanding in the first part they tried to dismiss and ignore it, and even went as far as silence those who reported it. Let's say they were very effective in cleaning up their own mess. The fact they took unprecedented emergency measures soon after it was in the media, tells me they knew about it long before.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 08:32:18 pm
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?

yes... both air pollution and tobacco smoke seem to make the disease outcome much worse
these are just preliminary data although they are quite plausible
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 17, 2020, 08:35:21 pm
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD

Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential.

We have a running bet at work on when the riots start...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 08:42:00 pm
If you are infected you should wear a mask, if possible, to protect others close to you

NO
if you are infected you must quarantine yourself, stay at home or go to the hospital if you can't breath

the main problems are:
1) lots of people do not realize they are infected since are symptom-less
2) a few sociopath know they got the disease (some even tested positive) and just behave carelessly

AFAIK they caught one who knew he was positive but went shopping to the supermarket and another asshole who knew he was sick, but didn't want to miss his planned nose plastic surgery and so didn't tell the medical staff and infected some of them
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 08:54:33 pm

SARS and COVID-19 are also transmitted via feces...
I've non idea why, but AFAIK nobody observed pet-to-human transmission

From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?

there are registered cases regarding the SARS virus (via a defective bathroom aeration system in a Hong Kong building)
while COVID-19 has been detected in feces and tears besides that diarrhea is one of the known symptom (together with loss of taste and smell senses)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 08:55:30 pm
If you are infected you should wear a mask, if possible, to protect others close to you

NO
if you are infected you must quarantine yourself, stay at home or go to the hospital if you can't breath

the main problems are:
1) lots of people do not realize they are infected since are symptom-less
2) a few sociopath know they got the disease (some even tested positive) and just behave carelessly

AFAIK they caught one who knew he was positive but went shopping to the supermarket and another asshole who knew he was sick, but didn't want to miss his planned nose plastic surgery and so didn't tell the medical staff and infected some of them

I hate people who quote me out of context. What was the last thing I wrote in the same very same post you're quoting just part of?

Lastly, if you are infected, or have good reason to believe that you might be infected - stay at home, do not go out in public unless strictly necessary. The question of "mask or no mask" doesn't come into it if you've put a door and some distance between you and the rest of the world.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 08:55:49 pm
Well people, Belgium has just increased measures one step before a total lock-down:

- Everyone stays at home unless for essentials or really needed to get to the workplace
- One person per 10m2 in supermarkets
- Maximum groups of 2 persons allowed in public
- Social distancing mandatory including for all companies and public transport
- If not followed, police will fine and/or close down facilities

Something tells me by the end of next week this will be considered too soft and a total lock-down will be the case.

Some infected people who had less luck here have now posted reports or videos from their hospital beds, begging our fellow citizens to take this extremely seriously because, being healthy in their 40's and 50's they did not expect it to be that bad. They said it feels like hell, is painful and with extreme exhaustion. No visits, total isolation and doctors come and go dressed like martians. Whoever still doubts this is no more than just another flu, is a lost case, I'm afraid.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 08:57:13 pm

while COVID-19 has been detected in feces and tears besides that diarrhea is one of the known symptom (together with loss of taste and smell senses)

[Citation Required]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 17, 2020, 09:15:20 pm
In case you haven't stumbled upon it yet, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) seems to be a good place for stats.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 09:44:31 pm
Italy was hit hard because they didn't quarantine the first two cases that they found back in early February.  Around the 2nd they had two Chinese tourists that were sick and were hospitalized but they allowed them to continue of their tour of the country and to go on a cruise. Weeks later when Italians started getting sick, the authorities started finally started some very limited quarantines but by then hundreds of people all over Italy were infected as well as numerous people in the surrounding countries and some had traveled back the US and to Canada.  About one week later, the number of cases in Italy exploded. Then about a week after that, the number of cases in many of the surrounding countries also exploded.

That's a huge pile of bullshit.
Are you just the usual fascist looking for any chance to spread your bloody fake news?
Shame on you.


Anybody who can read Italian might check what REALLY happened from respectable Italian newspapers like Corriere della Sera or Repubblica or Sole 24 ore (I'm unsure, but they might publish in English too)

The first two cases in Italy where two Chinese tourists in Rome. They were very civil and sensible people who quarantined themselves wearing masks, staying in the hotel room and restricting from touching other people.
Once they felt worse, they called the emergency number. The procedure for that kind of emergency was ready, so they sanitized the room and checked all the people who had got in touch with the tourists. Nobody else had been infected.

The tourists were immediately put into isolation and fully recovered after a few weeks in ICU (A study showing the rapid and severe damage to their respiratory system is going to be published soon).

Italy was the first country (and afaik the only one) in Europe to block direct flight from China, one of the first to get back and quarantine Italian nationals from there and constantly monitored people who had suspicious symptoms for possible contact with infected zones.

The problem is we did not have a patient zero here in Italy, but various patient ONE. None of them had got in touch with anybody else coming from China and positive (no antibody) to COVID-19.
So when those people went to the hospital with respiratory problems nobody at first thought it was COVID-19. Most of them were more than eighty and/or with other severe pathologies so the doctors thought they were dying of ordinary flue.

Then there was a young and fit Italian guy who started to show strange and strong respiratory symptoms. He was the first one to be tested for COVID-19. He had a friend who had come from China a couple of weeks before. But his friend was clean. No symptom, no antibody of a past infection.

Once that first patient was discovered they started to test medical staff and later recent deaths and so discovered the virus had been spreading in several hospitals unnoticed for a couple of weeks.

Patient zero might have been a German national (as for a recently published German study) who got infected during mid January and then transmitted the disease to colleagues who have been in North Italy a short while later. But that's no longer relevant as the disease had already spread widely and since sick people do go to hospitals where there were several infected medical staff the disease spread very quickly and wildly.

It was just the worst combination of unlucky and unlikely events, a perfect storm.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 09:45:40 pm
Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

   Wow!  The onset of infectiousness is 12 hours to 4.6 days! That should set off alarm bells!

I am still going through it....Yes, there are a lot of alarm bells there. Not just the summary disease effects statements. The projections based on modelling the effects of various NPIs are more than sobering. For a while now, I have been hoping that there were feasible strategies (in the US)  that could support the Health Care system without it being overwhelmed to the point of dysfunction, were possible. Now, I am, sadly, rethinking that.

Please, someone tell me that I am not reading this correctly....e.g., A1...

Figure  A1: Suppression  strategy  scenarios  for  US  showing  ICU  bed  requirements.  The  black  line  shows  the unmitigated epidemic. Green shows a suppression strategy incorporating closure of schools and universities, case isolation and population-wide social distancing beginning in late March 2020. The orange line shows a containment   strategy   incorporating   case   isolation,   household   quarantine   and population-wide social distancing. The red line is the estimated surge ICU bed capacity in US.  The blue shading shows the 5-month period in which these interventions are assumed to remain in place. (B) shows the same data as in panel (A) but zoomed in on the lower levels of the graph.

[attachimg=1]

See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 17, 2020, 10:07:46 pm
Wouldnt surprise me.  In fact, I'd be concerned about what they call "surge capacity."

In the hospitals I worked in, even on a Friday/Saturday night, the ERs were always so packed that "surge capacity" meant parking beds at pre-marked locations in the hallways.

And yeah, you are reading that correctly....  These are not exactly "isolation wards."

ICU's are generally pretty heavily used.  And I'm concerned about the EQUIPMENT.  Hospitals only have a limited number of ventilators.  VERY limited.  And a very limited number of people qualified to run them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 10:14:01 pm
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 10:17:07 pm
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for.  [...]

There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks,  without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness.   A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.
Even if such a plan existed it doesn't help because the EU as a whole is so densily populated that a problem quickly spreads across all countries.

the real problem is that there is European but no real Union.
Recently an Italian importer managed to order a huge amount of breathing devices from China. Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.
Surely we can't go on like that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Martin72 on March 17, 2020, 10:21:15 pm
Quote
Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.

Evidence please...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 10:21:57 pm
I hate people who quote me out of context. What was the last thing I wrote in the same very same post you're quoting just part of?

Lastly, if you are infected, or have good reason to believe that you might be infected - stay at home, do not go out in public unless strictly necessary. The question of "mask or no mask" doesn't come into it if you've put a door and some distance between you and the rest of the world.

I apologize, you're right
I had missed that
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 10:23:56 pm

while COVID-19 has been detected in feces and tears besides that diarrhea is one of the known symptom (together with loss of taste and smell senses)

[Citation Required]

can't provide that as it is from an Italian newspaper reporting about a German study... I just read that a few hours ago
probably other sources will publish that piece of news soon
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 10:26:26 pm
Wouldnt surprise me.  In fact, I'd be concerned about what they call "surge capacity."

Surge capacity typically means diverting critical care beds that would normally be reserved for planned operations that need CCU support (e.g. transplants, other major surgery with potential post-op complications) and (in the UK) putting CCU beds into use that have been mothballed due to lack of resources (e.g. staff) to keep them in regular use. CCU is very expensive to actively run, with a staff requirement of at least 1 per bed, 24 hours a day, thus it's not unusual for CCU resources to get mothballed if budgets get tight. On the other hand it means that these specialised beds are often sitting waiting for nothing more than a clean, stock check and staffing to be pressed into use - you don't have to wait to acquire equipment de novo.

CCU beds are always in a perilous state as soon as anything goes wrong. My local hospital has 3-4 CCU beds and only expects to have 2-3 in use at any one time, that's only 33% spare capacity in a hospital with 340 regular beds.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 17, 2020, 10:26:58 pm
the real problem is that there is European but no real Union.
Recently an Italian importer managed to order a huge amount of breathing devices from China. Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.
Surely we can't go on like that.

Uh, wow. Any source for that?  :wtf: The only reference I found with Google was a report of China sending 10000 respirators and experts to Italy. The source for that, however, ... hm: https://www.suedtirolnews.it/italien/china-schickt-beatmungsmaschinen-und-experten-nach-italien (https://www.suedtirolnews.it/italien/china-schickt-beatmungsmaschinen-und-experten-nach-italien)

Not what I call reliable.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tinhead on March 17, 2020, 10:42:06 pm
i think it was good idea to buy 500pcs "already pre-used" masks from China, they worked for them, so they already rad-hard and will work for me.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 10:42:49 pm
Quote
Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.

Evidence please...

that was published on several Italian newspaper.
But I know that on March the 4th the German Ministry of Economy and Energy forbid the export of any kind of Individual Protection Devices included the ones I had ordered on mid February from Conrad Electronics.

Afaik France did the same.
OK please check if you can translate this: (it looks like they have been unseized now)
https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/mondo/coronavirus-19-mln-di-mascherine-per-litalia-bloccate-da-altri-paesi_16184369-202002a.shtml (https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/mondo/coronavirus-19-mln-di-mascherine-per-litalia-bloccate-da-altri-paesi_16184369-202002a.shtml) and can find any reference there.
I'm interested as you to check if that is true.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 10:48:26 pm
i think it was good idea to buy 500pcs "already pre-used" masks from China, they worked for them, so they already rad-hard and will work for me.

Yeah, good idea. [Fx: turns to audience] "Think of it as evolution in action."

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 10:53:54 pm
See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.

No, you didn't read it wrong. I think the US has few time left to act in a drastic manner, if the aim is to prevent what is happening to other countries who have acted as-needed. Aside from the medical cases and complications, the problem with this virus is:
Unless a country is willing to take very drastic isolation measures before they appear to be needed, as perceived by the general population, the filling up of its medical infrastructure will be caught in speed by the virus, and you're heading straight for the wall. It's not policy or politics, it's math.

If you would able to really take a snapshot of the exact real number of people infected right now, then it's maybe x100 times the current reported number. It's just that these people currently present no symptoms at all and happily infect others. But they will in two weeks. And in two weeks, the actual number of infected individuals will again be a multiple higher than what is being measured then. This goes on until about 60-70% of everyone has been infected, and then it goes down.

And yes, I'm certainly no expert in the matter, but from what I read it seems the US is heading for the opposite, i.e. underestimating it and taking too few measures.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kjelt on March 17, 2020, 10:58:06 pm
Germany as many other eu countries have indeed put an export hold on critical items such as masks and gloves. But what is the story ?
The italians did not allow chinese plains to land so they had to go through Germany? Or why did they not import themselves directly? So yes it looks like that part is true but they are released? Much quicker than any consumer item is released by german vustoms ;)

BTW: our health professionals are now recycling masks since they have an extreme shortage.
I have heard some have to work without adequate protection, doing the best they can. This is insane, insane times. Take care everyone gor yourself and loved ones.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 17, 2020, 11:00:20 pm
CCU beds are always in a perilous state as soon as anything goes wrong. My local hospital has 3-4 CCU beds and only expects to have 2-3 in use at any one time, that's only 33% spare capacity in a hospital with 340 regular beds.

Well, you could think of this epidemic as a natural disaster occurring everywhere at the same time in a country. That's the main problem with it. This virus has a giant medical care depletion capacity. It's both fast spreading and stealthy for a long time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 11:02:20 pm
BTW: our health professionals are now recycling masks since they have an extreme shortage.
I have heard some have to work without adequate protection, doing the best they can. This is insane, insane times. Take care everyone gor yourself and loved ones.

it is the same all over the world and everywhere industries are repurposed to produce respiratory devices and masks
the truth is that everybody should have expected that but nobody did
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 11:08:13 pm
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.

Yes, I meant vertical horizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.

What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).

The most stringent NPI, which we in the US are heading for or are currently at, does not overload health care until a resurgence of infections in NOV. Under that scenario, a window of time exists to develop AND deploy pharmacological interventions, which would mitigate the resurgence in infections predicted for NOV.

To develop and deploy a vaccine in 8 months is unreasonable under any Phase 1, Phase 2a...etc FDA process that I am familiar with. While ~a year gets bandied about, it is a best case scenario in my view. Vaccines, however, are under development worldwide, even though in the US the very first trial has just now begun (afaik).

That, potentially, leaves us with non-vaccine pharmacological intervention in that short time window.

Administering antibodies is not a fantasy (take that #BoomerRemover, we are going to harvest your blood :) )

Antivirals (all the *virs and others (e.g., https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/ (https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/) ) are under consideration. Compassionate use might allow some deployment of some drugs within that time window, but completely novel treatments are going to be subject to the same basic FDA route - again in my view.

So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 11:11:28 pm
CCU beds are always in a perilous state as soon as anything goes wrong. My local hospital has 3-4 CCU beds and only expects to have 2-3 in use at any one time, that's only 33% spare capacity in a hospital with 340 regular beds.

Well, you could think of this epidemic as a natural disaster occurring everywhere at the same time in a country. That's the main problem with it. This virus has a giant medical care depletion capacity. It's both fast spreading and stealthy for a long time.

Based on the Imperial College estimates, across all age groups taken together, about 1 in 5 patients that needs hospitalizing because of Covid-19 will need a CCU bed. So a hospital designed to treat Covid-19 would have 1 CCU bed for every 4 regular ones rather that the 1:99 that's something like the normal ratio.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 17, 2020, 11:12:52 pm
regarding the bullshit somebody wrote about the spread of the virus in Italy, you can also check Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy)

it looks like we got that from Germany...

Quote
It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genome.[30][31][32] The 38-year-old man was asymptomatic for weeks, reportedly led an active social life and potentially interacted with dozens of people before spreading the virus at Codogno Hospital

nobody expected that
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zucca on March 17, 2020, 11:13:56 pm
Keep your ass at home. The rest is not so relevant at the moment in my eyes...
Finger pointing is not productive, let's just help each other to overcome this mess.
What we write here will not change the situation, unless we are posting from our home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DBecker on March 17, 2020, 11:26:08 pm
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD

Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential. 

I've not seen anything besides the usual exaggerated stories.

People aren't out buying guns for this crisis.

Sure there are crazy preppers.  But they already have guns and ammo.  Way more than they need because there were people that believed the fake stories that Obama would take their guns.  Years of self-created ammo shortages were caused by people stocking up, not because people were using lots of expensive ammo shooting at targets.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 17, 2020, 11:44:45 pm
See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.

No, you didn't read it wrong. I think the US has few time left to act in a drastic manner, if the aim is to prevent what is happening to other countries who have acted as-needed. Aside from the medical cases and complications, the problem with this virus is:
  • high infection rate and highly contagious
  • long incubation period of up to 14 days
Unless a country is willing to take very drastic isolation measures before they appear to be needed, as perceived by the general population, the filling up of its medical infrastructure will be caught in speed by the virus, and you're heading straight for the wall. It's not policy or politics, it's math.

If you would able to really take a snapshot of the exact real number of people infected right now, then it's maybe x100 times the current reported number. It's just that these people currently present no symptoms at all and happily infect others. But they will in two weeks. And in two weeks, the actual number of infected individuals will again be a multiple higher than what is being measured then. This goes on until about 60-70% of everyone has been infected, and then it goes down.

And yes, I'm certainly no expert in the matter, but from what I read it seems the US is heading for the opposite, i.e. underestimating it and taking too few measures.

I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.

THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.

Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 17, 2020, 11:52:28 pm
So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.

Too complex to do anything other than guess at really. Many of the figures used as assumptions in the Imperial study are provisional (moreso than in science in general, which is always to some extent provisional). I see no reason to treat the Imperial study as anything less than "the best predictions we can make at the moment". We've no better working hypothesis, and I fully expect Imperial to revise their model (or someone else to build a similar but revised model) as more data becomes available and assumptions can be refined in the light of new data.

My concerns would be elsewhere. If the Imperial study is accurate (and for argument's sake lets take it as such) I fear it is short-sighted. I say this because if we achieved the effective level of control interventions to make things start to follow the Imperial graphs (on either the green or brown traces), as the general population sees a levelling off of infection rates they will become less compliant with the control measures. So we won't be waiting around for the putative September cut off of control measures to generate those peaks in Nov-Dec, they will happen sooner as folks take a more laissez-faire attitude to the controls.

Look at the difficulties we have here, among a group mostly made up of educated scientists and engineers, at getting some people to take this seriously enough. Imagine then, the difficulty getting "Bert the builder" or "Karen the data entry clerk" to continue taking preventative measures for five months that have financial and social costs to them when in three months time "I haven't seen people dropping like flies. I reckon it's all exaggerated, I'm going back to work/down the bar/whatever".

To maintain Imperial's controls for the next five months as they envisage, is going to require a level of coercion that the west is unaccustomed to and is likely to be increasing resistant to if the apparent disease spread is temporarily halted. The public will accept restrictions if they see "the enemy at the gate", they won't be so happy to do so if the "enemy" appears to them not to be materialising even though that is part of the plan and they've been told that. It will require a massive education drive to convince the public that this is just "holding back the flood" and continued isolation and other measure are still required; and this happens at a time when public confidence in government in the West is probably at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 17, 2020, 11:53:21 pm
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.
Yes, I meant vertical horizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.

What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).
Well, even if the numbers are off by a factor of 4 then "we're fuxored" still applies. Over here they are already moving patients to different hospitals in order to distribute the load across the country and they are building triage tents in front of some hospitals. We ain't seen nothing yet!

Also the NPIs can only last for so long otherwise the economy will collapse and probably cause more deaths due to lack of electricity, water, sanitation, etc. Imagine getting a Cholera epidemic on top.

If there is some view on having a working vaccine I'm sure it will be fast-tracked and likely administered as part of a trial. AFAIK this is often the case in cancer treatments so people get the latest & greatest medicines.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 18, 2020, 12:02:07 am
So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.

Too complex to do anything other than guess at really. Many of the figures used as assumptions in the Imperial study are provisional (moreso than in science in general, which is always to some extent provisional). I see no reason to treat the Imperial study as anything less than "the best predictions we can make at the moment". We've no better working hypothesis, and I fully expect Imperial to revise their model (or someone else to build a similar but revised model) as more data becomes available and assumptions can be refined in the light of new data.

My concerns would be elsewhere. If the Imperial study is accurate (and for argument's sake lets take it as such) I fear it is short-sighted. I say this because if we achieved the effective level of control interventions to make things start to follow the Imperial graphs (on either the green or brown traces), as the general population sees a levelling off of infection rates they will become less compliant with the control measures. So we won't be waiting around for the putative September cut off of control measures to generate those peaks in Nov-Dec, they will happen sooner as folks take a more laissez-faire attitude to the controls.

Look at the difficulties we have here, among a group mostly made up of educated scientists and engineers, at getting some people to take this seriously enough. Imagine then, the difficulty getting "Bert the builder" or "Karen the data entry clerk" to continue taking preventative measures for five months that have financial and social costs to them when in three months time "I haven't seen people dropping like flies. I reckon it's all exaggerated, I'm going back to work/down the bar/whatever".

To maintain Imperial's controls for the next five months as they envisage, is going to require a level of coercion that the west is unaccustomed to and is likely to be increasing resistant to if the apparent disease spread is temporarily halted. The public will accept restrictions if they see "the enemy at the gate", they won't be so happy to do so if the "enemy" appears to them not to be materialising even though that is part of the plan and they've been told that. It will require a massive education drive to convince the public that this is just "holding back the flood" and continued isolation and other measure are still required; and this happens at a time when public confidence in government in the West is probably at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime.

Good, now you are seeing what I am writing about in my response to @flyte

One conclusion is that the stringent NPI has to be in effect longer than the end of Sep. In the US, we have a rather important election planned for early Nov (and starting a few weeks before with mail in ballets). IF that projection is credible, we either have to attempt a general election under strict NPI conditions (how the ef do you do that) or we have to relax/remove the strict NPI and incur the catastrophic failure of the health care system.

So, unless that modelling can be credibly criticized and replaced with more accurate modelling (that predicts something better and survives peer review scrutiny), we MUST bust ass and get a PI into the mix or figure out how to hold a general election under strict NPI.

It has a great deal to do with how the US goes forward.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 18, 2020, 12:06:24 am
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.
Yes, I meant vertical horizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.

What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).
Well, even if the numbers are off by a factor of 4 then "we're fuxored" still applies. Over here they are already moving patients to different hospitals in order to distribute the load across the country and they are building triage tents in front of some hospitals. We ain't seen nothing yet!

Also the NPIs can only last for so long otherwise the economy will collapse and probably cause more deaths due to lack of electricity, water, sanitation, etc. Imagine getting a Cholera epidemic on top.

If there is some view on having a working vaccine I'm sure it will be fast-tracked and likely administered as part of a trial. AFAIK this is often the case in cancer treatments so people get the latest & greatest medicines.

The example of cancer treatment is, hopefully, not a good example here. In cases of the last stages of a terminal conditions, approval of unapproved medication is more likely because of compassionate use. I can't think of any compassionate use medicine that is not "self-medicating" that is approved in thousands of cases - but maybe I will not be able to say that next year.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 12:36:23 am
Well, one of my relatives had the choice between going for the regular and experimental cancer treatment several decades ago. That person is still walking around.

Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 12:50:48 am
The example of cancer treatment is, hopefully, not a good example here. In cases of the last stages of a terminal conditions, approval of unapproved medication is more likely because of compassionate use. I can't think of any compassionate use medicine that is not "self-medicating" that is approved in thousands of cases - but maybe I will not be able to say that next year.

Slightly different circumstances, because the in-depth protocols for drug approval weren't existing then, but consider the rapid move to clinical use of penicillin in WWII. "Antibiotics" got that as a name because the prevailing wisdom was that they were "anti - living things", not anti-bacterials as they proved to be. With that as a background there was serious opposition in some scientific quarters to even trying them.  I think that the attitude will be much as it was in wartime  -  "Needs must when the devil drives" - and accelerated testing and safety trial protocols will get put in place to allow for clinical use of a vaccine in as short a time as is reasonably possible.

There's a closer parallel with cancer drug trials than might at first appear. With a 9.3% fatality rate for 80+ year olds infected with SARS-Covid-2 there's a much wider margin of appreciation for the trade off between risks of a foreshortened life from an experimental vaccine and risks of a foreshortened life from contracting SARS-Covid-2 in that age group. It's a rather different 'near end of life' situation than cancer, but it's kind of on the same spectrum. With fully informed consent, I'm sure that there are some brighter, braver people in this age group who would volunteer for a slightly riskier than normal drug trial with sightly more than normal rewards possibly associated with it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 12:59:58 am
Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

Several pending elections in the UK have been put on hold for the duration.

As far as the US presidential elections I think the situation is a bit more problematic. There will be people who remember Trump making noises and asking questions near the beginning of his presidency about quasi-legal ways to extend his term and about circumstances where he could just declare himself to continue to be president. Any other time, with any other president, and I don't think the body politic would have any issue with the idea that postponing elections was a sensible step. With Trump and his machinations I think he's built a level of distrust that might make it difficult, maybe impossible, to postpone the US elections.

A cynic would say that if looks like he might lose he'll postpone, if looks like he might win he'll want the elections to happen on schedule*.

*I'd apply that cynicism to any modern politician, not just Trump.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 18, 2020, 01:14:05 am


Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 01:38:39 am
Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.
Yes yes I got one !
Maybe sign language helps:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cuP6ntds4g (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cuP6ntds4g)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 01:44:13 am


Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.
That is a problem but I think many will see it as a test of political leadership for everyone involved. It would be political suicide to hold the US government hostage over who is to be the president during a crisis this severe. In the grand scheme of things it isn't important who is president.
Quote
  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.
Actually the banking systems aren't secure at all. World wide banks get robbed from billions of euros/dollars every year due to digital fraud. To the banks this is just cost of doing business.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: whalphen on March 18, 2020, 01:45:35 am
This helps explain the actions taken by government leaders in the last few days.  Brace for impact!
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 01:51:36 am


Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.


My state has done mail-in voting for years, I don't think I've been to a ballot box in a decade and I have not voted in a voting booth in at least 15 years. I forget sometimes that not all states have mail-in.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 02:32:11 am
This helps explain the actions taken by government leaders in the last few days.  Brace for impact!
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

You're at least three pages behind the rest of us.

Do try to keep up!  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 18, 2020, 03:00:53 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 18, 2020, 03:09:05 am


Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.

It's a big unknown. I was looking around at some numbers...

California cast over 14 million votes in the last general election and about 58% were absentee ballots (mail in votes). https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee/  (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee/)

The USPS delivers ~ 187.8 million pieces of First-Class Mail per day. https://facts.usps.com/one-day/ (https://facts.usps.com/one-day/)

But, as was noted by @james_s, some states do not have mail-in voting and still others don't have mail-in voting without an excuse (and there are lists of acceptable excuses).

I don't know how difficult/legal it would be to change State voting procedures in just a few months.

Five states have delayed primaries so far. In Ohio, a judge disallowed the change and the Governor went ahead and did it based on a State of Emergency declaration. Primaries are basically smaller elections that decide who is going to running in the General election. Being delayed is, of course, not being cancelled.

If we were ever to institute and enforce law prohibiting large number gathering (can you do that in a state of emergency? don't know but probably, I would think so). If so, you would be running head-to-head with free elections and that would not go over at all. So, it seems like you would have to, at least, provide mail-in voting.

It is a big time mess that could be around the corner (~7 months).

I was looking at the daily new case data for South Korea (from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/))
[attachimg=1]

and thinking about how it could be used as a test for the predicted infection rates in the Brit report (the earlier posted figure), but a) there is not enough data yet and b) I don't know the status of the NPI there.

I'm sure that these types of examples will be watched carefully. I'm also confident that others are going to produce their models and we will look for agreement/departure from the Brit report predictions. In fact, since I assume that such has been going on in the US for a while, I am a little concerned that the US has not come out with anything refuting (or supporting) the report's predictions. Maybe that will be in tomorrows news.

I still like the idea of harvesting antibodies from millennials - you know, social conscience and all that  ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 18, 2020, 03:15:08 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
Oh shit !
Wishing her the best of luck and hopefully care too !
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 18, 2020, 03:31:49 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

  Best of luck to your daughter!  Keep us posted on her condition.

   I just looked and currently France is showing 118 cases per million people. If the hospitals are overloaded now I dread to think what it could be like in a week or two.  Same for most countries.

   There are 1846 new cases in the US today. That's over 30% increase from yesterday. It looks like we're starting that upward swing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 18, 2020, 05:24:11 am
Actually the banking systems aren't secure at all. World wide banks get robbed from billions of euros/dollars every year due to digital fraud. To the banks this is just cost of doing business.

I deal with banks all the time (our products are often used to encrypt transactions).  I 10000% agree with the above statement.  If you saw what I see every day, you'd take all of your money out of the bank, cut up all of your credit cards, and put your cash in your pillow...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 18, 2020, 05:38:35 am
Don't worry about US elections. They'll work themselves out. Primaries are at the state level, but in the end it's all a mechanism for the national party to pick a candidate. In the event the primaries are sufficiently disrupted, the fallback mechanism would be each party's leadership picking their candidate directly. Most likely Biden and Trump, given what's happened to date.

In the case of the President/Vice President, their current term still ends on Jan 20th, period. They only get another term if they're elected to it. It would take a constitutional amendment to change that. If for any reason the electoral process didn't happen, it would invoke a line of succession for an acting president until elections can be held. That could actually result in acting President Pelosi, believe it or not. Speaker of the House would be the top of that list. No, I don't expect those of you from elsewhere to know such details. Way too many US citizens are ignorant as well.

Now lets get back to the real subject rather than straying into what could easily become a political discussion.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 18, 2020, 05:58:41 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it.

Can you get her back to Australia? Even being held on an island for two weeks, having medical care is better than staying in France and waiting for it to progress.

France is all border closed, inclusive they have imposed controls to trucks , at first,the trucks had free access.

Now, i don't know like France  will keep the lockdown  in the zones "no-go".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 18, 2020, 07:41:21 am
Wow. The German Big Brother sounds like some heavy-duty viewing - the have been 'in isolation' for six weeks.

From reading tweets about it, tonight the producers sat them down and said: "Well, um, there is a pandemic going on.... ... here are some videos from friends and family."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zucca on March 18, 2020, 07:48:11 am
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus

Feel for you, my cousin got it but she recovered. In her case the hit was more in her psycho than body. You start thinking who got it because of you in the past two weeks, and even the people you love are involved. I not even mention the rest of the story....

My old parents in Italy are in risk, and I can not do nothing for them, I am now located in Germany (...) .
It's horrible.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 08:17:36 am
Report from a friend of the family who drive lorries Europe<>UK has said they have stopped the drivers and tractor units.  The docks are now loading the trailer units onto ferries with tugs only.  No citation though.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 18, 2020, 09:38:00 am
Spoke to my daughter about a half hour ago. She had a few aches, tired etc and the temperature was up yesterday, but now it has come down. She is relatively young and very fit (runs half marathons), never eats junk food, has no underlying conditions and more recently (probably a good thing) was forced to work about over an hour in each direction thanks to strikes. So I guess her immune system is very good. She wont come back to Australia as she is a French dual citizen working and is well settled there and knowing what is going on here, she might have difficulty getting back. She book Etihad, but the airline is overwhelmed and you cannot get through. Prior to the lockdown, she said you cannot get rice at the big supermarkets. So she walked into a small Chinese grocery store - no problems. 5kg bags of rice and whatever are plentiful. She cannot go out now, but is fine. The French seem to be similar to us Australians - the herd mentality.

I am fearful of this massive cash splash by these panicking western governments. Economics 101: Too much money, not enough goods = inflation. High inflation leads to high interest rates.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: EEVblog on March 18, 2020, 09:51:27 am
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 18, 2020, 09:55:15 am
This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 18, 2020, 10:05:07 am
Just passed 200,000 cases by woeldometer"s count...

Expecting 300k in four days :(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 10:16:23 am
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".

There's plans over here to systematically test blood bank samples for coronavirus immune globulines  in order to assess the true spread of the virus. Also, development is underway for a new type of tests that will deliver results in minutes instead of days. Works similar to a pregnancy test. These tests will not be as sensitive as the currently dominant RT-PCR test kits but it is known that the virus load in the throat is very high already when people start to complain about symptoms. These tests will be sensitive to the proteins of the virus' hull, not to the RNA. You need a higher concentration of virus material but as mentioned, that will not be a problem. Once produced in masses, they will immensely improve test coverage.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:27:13 am
I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.

THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.

Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?

Correct, albeit it would be hard and premature to stick a number on it. But measures will need to be applied for months, not just weeks.

And there's many unknowns, like general population health and immune response. But, on average, people are the same whichever side of the globe. The phantom of "we have a better a health care" will hit hard, as no health care system will be able to cope with the load of a free SARS-Cov-2 virus spread. Just look at what happened to other countries so far and their high healthcare quality standards.

But regardless of how accurate the report predictions really are, the NPI protocol will have to be very strict, in relative terms. Always a multiple stricter than what appears needed as given by the current figures, due to the reasons I've listed before. And there is the challenge, to get public opinion behind such measures without a readily observable facts in proximity. People are typically only willing to act based on current facts, not on impending trouble, even if it's just two weeks ahead.

The other part of your discussion, relaxing the NPI, is what I would call the phase two problem. Over here, this still has to come and China is about to enter it. I've seen statistics of previous old epidemics of the past which suggest that when measures are released too quickly, you effectively get a second, even higher, infection peak. So that's a very real worry indeed. And it will happen, people will feel "it's over and I want to get out now".

But, these would be "trouble for later", as we're all in the first phase of containment now and regarding the US, it still has to enter it the coming days/weeks.

However, regions which had a bad phase one, should have a less troublesome phase two, as their group immunity will be better.

Basically, as I've said before, there's two extreme options in the spectrum, none of which are realistic:

All realistic options are in between those. The more you go toward the last option, the longer the NPI measures period becomes and the less it will stress health care infrastructure, at the expense of economical distress.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 18, 2020, 11:49:43 am

(Attachment Link)

See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong.
You are reading it wrong. The chart shows what would happen if both NPI scenarios last till the end of August (the blue band shows period of the restrictions assumed by the model). For example, for green line it tells that severe NPI measures including school closures could be efficacious. But once the restrictions are lifted at the start of September, health care system will become overwhelmed in less than 2 month, unless there would be some changes not taken into account by the model (like new therapies reducing the number of severe cases, virus mutations, availability of vaccine).

However, the chart does not tell what would happen if the restrictions stay in place beyond September, or how fast country would be left without available ICUs if restrictions are lifted earlier.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 18, 2020, 12:21:25 pm
The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.

Experts are ok. I mean, real medical experts. WHO has given good advice; Chinese health experts have given good advice. They have also given good advice to the governments all over the world. But the governments didn't listen, because they are freaking stupid and the fear.

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

For many, it's very confusing. For example, here I believe people have taken the official advice quite seriously, but because the official response has been two weeks too late from the start, it doesn't help. You need to listen to the actual experts directly, bypassing the officials (who add the 2-week delay). But only a small percentage of us does this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 12:26:30 pm
All these measures just serve to buy time with economic damage. We need to increase the amount of intensive care units and at the same time plow ahead to discover effective methods of medical intervention. Economic damage will eventually force us to lift the restrictions on travel and business. Predictably, we'll all be walking around with face masks for many months.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 18, 2020, 12:28:59 pm
Although EU is closing its borders to curb the spread of the pandemic, Finland and Sweden have emphasized that humanitarian migrants can still cross our borders unhindered, because that's what is most important right now, right?

For some people/politicians, ideological goals override even the life and death of others. :palm:

If my suspicions are right, this "we'll do some of the things suggested, but not all" approach will be worse than either the full isolation or no isolation at all, because ideological exceptions tend to have a demoralising effect.

I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results.  But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 18, 2020, 12:34:59 pm
See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.

In that model, the actions are performed in a single, 5-month long step function (drawn as the blue background); these models completely stop the actions after 5 months, so it's not unsurprising that every scenario includes a second wave. Do note, however, that this second wave is smaller than the unmitigated wave. This is comforting.

In reality, the orange line and green line models would need to be accompanied with another action region (another blue region) to mitigate the secondary peaks. This would cause tertiary peaks, but they would be even smaller.

I'm sure the models do not represent the reality exactly, but they do show the mechanisms. Taking action is better than no action, but it's still bad, and likely, second and third waves will occur, requiring more actions; but it gets less severe once time goes by, especially when coupled with advancements in finding at least somewhat effective medicines; or finally, vaccine.

Another option, instead of pulse-width-modulating the response, is to adjust the level of social isolation (and other means; but social isolation is the biggest contributor) in a continuous, non-step-like manner, to regulate the number of cases.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 12:36:15 pm
I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results.  But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.

Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 18, 2020, 01:59:15 pm
Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?
Social pressure only works in groups of less than 2,000 or so people.  In cities like Helsinki, where a lot of people have moved to the city as young adults, anonymity is used as a shield against social pressure.  It is like backlash, after growing up in smaller circles where everybody knew you; suddenly you find yourself having the ability to sidestep all social pressure, and do what you want: it's not like they know you.

I do see a lot of young people just completely disregarding any quarantine efforts.  However, I've also seen indications I haven't seen here before, youngsters occasionally offering help to older people they don't know.  That could have been just a random occurrence, though.

What I do know, is that Finns will quietly (grumbling to themselves and their friends) do what they are told, as long as everyone has to do the same.

You let any subset of people off the hook, and very soon nobody will do it.  That sort of fairness is at the core of being a Finn.  "Is there really a need for social distancing, when our borders are kept open for humanitarian immigration?"  "If humanitarian immigrants get to travel as they wish, why should I stay home?"  It is this last one, that will bite Finland in the ass, I believe.

Now that we know that the virus becomes infectitious within a day or two, while the symptoms take around five days to become apparent, social distancing -- or whatever that makes people who believe they are not infected to behave as if they were, and stop spreading the virus around -- and quarantines are even more important than originally believed.  When the symptoms are detectable, the person has been spreading the virus already for days.  That is what we must try to limit here.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BU508A on March 18, 2020, 02:03:39 pm
Guys, for everyone with a 3D printer and want to help regarding the COVID-19 pandemie,
this is a very interesting project:

https://twitter.com/jonisborn/status/1238525868546445312

Quote:
We are working on open source ventilators in order to have a fast and easy solution to be reproduced and assembled locally worldwide.
If you have any skills that you consider might help, join us @ https://projectopenair.org
#projectopenair please RT and share
Earth globe americas
Flexed biceps
 #TogetherWeRise
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 18, 2020, 02:05:19 pm
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 02:07:11 pm
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".
Do they care? In Europe they have an influenza monitoring website to collect data. But that doesn't help much right now; it is nice for a hindsight report. Compare Germany and the Netherlands for example. Germany has over 10k confirmed cases and 26 deaths. In the Netherlands there are 2k confirmed cases and 58 deaths. One would say that the Netherlands has at least 10 times more cases than is being tested for.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 02:40:20 pm
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 18, 2020, 02:47:46 pm
For the people still think the coranavirus only kill to elder people or than they have previous pathologies.

Today, a Military Policeman  with 37 years old and without previous pathologies have dead.

https://www.augc.org/comunicados/representante-augc-en-madrid-primer-guardia-civil-fallecido-por-contagio-coronavirus_20078_102.html (https://www.augc.org/comunicados/representante-augc-en-madrid-primer-guardia-civil-fallecido-por-contagio-coronavirus_20078_102.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 03:03:36 pm
For the people still think the coranavirus only kill to elder people or than they have previous pathologies.

Today, a Military Policeman  with 37 years old and without previous pathologies have dead.
Nobody ever claimed that younger people are not affected. The numbers however show that younger people have a significantly lower chance of dying from the Corona virus. Pointing out single cases is not helping anyone.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 18, 2020, 03:04:14 pm
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?
Follow our instincts. Do what WE think make sense and look ahead how events may unfold. It is not a rocket science. It was clear 2 weeks ago borders must be shut off here in North America, let alone in Europe.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 18, 2020, 03:15:18 pm
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?
Follow our instincts. Do what WE think make sense and look ahead how events may unfold. It is not a rocket science. It was clear 2 weeks ago borders must be shut off here in North America, let alone in Europe.

What do we do when my instinct is different than your instinct?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 03:21:24 pm
This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!

Anybody who's been a regular reader of New Scientist or similar level-headed board science journals/magazine could have told you that this is a "not of, but when" situation. There have been calls for better emergency preparedness for a pandemic going back to the 1980s when I started reading New Scientist.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 03:32:59 pm
There's plans over here to systematically test blood bank samples for coronavirus immune globulines  in order to assess the true spread of the virus.

That's a canny idea.

Quote
Also, development is underway for a new type of tests that will deliver results in minutes instead of days. Works similar to a pregnancy test. These tests will not be as sensitive as the currently dominant RT-PCR test kits but it is known that the virus load in the throat is very high already when people start to complain about symptoms. These tests will be sensitive to the proteins of the virus' hull, not to the RNA. You need a higher concentration of virus material but as mentioned, that will not be a problem. Once produced in masses, they will immensely improve test coverage.

I'd imagine that more than one group started working on this as soon as it looked like SARS-Covid-2 was a problem. It's probably an ELISA test. They are relatively quick to develop, the trickiest bit is genetically engineering a bacterium or yeast to produce antibodies to the virus' coat proteins. The hard part is producing a DNA sequence to code for an antibody to the coat proteins, after that its just routine work that has been done for 100 ELISA tests before. It's easier to make an ELISA test that produces a colour change that's outside the visible spectrum, uses fully wet chemistry and needs an instrument to read the results (similar, ish, to blood glucose meters that take test strips). Producing one that indicates with a visible colour change and only uses dry chemistry (like pregnancy tests) is harder. So it's possible that we'll see a laboratory version quite some time before we'll see a 'field test'.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 03:54:08 pm
Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".

By that theory, we would have eradicated measles and polio for long.
Herd immunity will never work unless you forcefully contact everyone with the virus.

Please quote the right way. I've said those were the ends of the spectrum, not some realistic options.

And yes, this kind of spreading would probably work to achieve rapid and broad global population immunity, unless the virus mutates very frequently (another danger). The high degree of contagiousness and rapid spread would boil down to a forceful contact. Polio is almost eradicated, for practical matters, much less with measles due to the absence of vaccinations in poor countries and infection of newborns, but both can be said to be "under control" compared to a pandemic like the current one. Total eradication and widespread immunity are different things.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 04:10:19 pm
Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".

By that theory, we would have eradicated measles and polio for long.
Herd immunity will never work unless you forcefully contact everyone with the virus.

Whether herd immunity develops depends on how widespread an infection is, and that in turn depends on how good an infection is at spreading itself. There's a minimum level of infectiousness for a disease before it is capable of naturally generating herd immunity. The 1918 flu epidemic was infectious enough and that's why it eventually died out. Other diseases aren't sufficiently infectious enough for a sufficient proportion of the population to develop active immunity to the same strain in a short enough period of time for herd immunity to naturally occur. We don't yet know for a fact, but it looks like SARS-Covid-2 likely meets the criteria for a virus that would, eventually, trigger herd immunity.

Of course we have an artificial method of inducing herd immunity for many diseases by inoculation with a vaccine. That creates the same active immune response in a large proportion of the population exactly as if we had "forcefully contact[ed] everyone with the virus". This fails to create herd immunity unless a critical portion of the population is inoculated (e.g. outbreaks of measles in modern times as certain individuals have declined to have their children inoculated against measles).

Herd immunity 101 - Just for the benefit of those who don't know what some of us mean by herd immunity.

Herd immunity is where some, but not all, individuals in a population are immune to a disease in a way that effectively protects the whole population from that disease. The idea is that enough individuals have active immunity* to a specific disease that should a single individual (who is still susceptible to the disease) catch the disease it won't spread. If enough individuals have active immunity then the chance of an infected individual contacting and infecting another susceptible individual before they have either recovered or died from a disease is significantly reduced. It doesn't mean that the disease can't spread at all, but that its chances of spreading are so reduced that only odd individual cases will be seen instead of outbreaks involving many individuals.

*Active immunity (also called specific immunity) - where an individual has either had a disease and recovered, or been vaccinated against the disease so that they have antibodies to the disease, This allows the immune system to immediately recognise a disease and mount a defence to it as soon as the disease organism is encountered. Contrast with passive or non-specific immunity where a disease organism has to be causing problems before the body mounts a defence, by which time it's already a disease in progress. It's like the bouncers on the door of a club having the photo of a troublemaker rather than having to wait for a fight to have broken out (that might spread) before dealing with the troublemaker.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 04:16:23 pm
In reality, the orange line and green line models would need to be accompanied with another action region (another blue region) to mitigate the secondary peaks. This would cause tertiary peaks, but they would be even smaller.

If you read the whole paper you'll see that they do model a situation where there are restrictions, they are lifted when spread slows, reapplied when spread speeds up again, and this pattern is repeated.

[attachimg=1 width=1024]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 18, 2020, 04:51:17 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 04:51:51 pm
Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

Naa, the Home Secretary has lent him a copy of this, and Nanny has tucked him up with a glass of warm milk:

(http://d.gr-assets.com/books/1353062334l/3021316.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 04:53:44 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??

Imperial report, page 7, 510,000 deaths.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 05:17:34 pm
And yes, this kind of spreading would probably work to achieve rapid and broad global population immunity.

Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

...
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.

You're again cherry-picking my quotes. I've never said this would actually be a solution let alone a good idea. It's the theoretical end of a spectrum, the other hypothetical end being a complete freeze of human interaction. I've repeated this several times above, of course this would be an uttermost cruel solution from a society point of view. And so far mortality rate has been 3-3.5% for the known infected about everywhere, so indeed real mortality rate over all infected won't be anything lower than 1-2% of the actual population. That's why people should worry, taking me back to my first posts in this threads. If Boris is really thinking of this for the UK as you said, he's going to end up in history books, on the bad side.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 05:25:37 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??

Current mortality rates on known infected individuals are in the 3-3.5% range (last time I've checked at least, but it has been pretty much the same since the outbreak in China). However, more individuals get infected than just the known cases, who present few or no symptoms, or simply because countries can't test everyone. So this lowers the real mortality rate vs. a population. Experts think this would take it down to about 1% or so, taking the infected individuals into account who stayed under the radar. But this is still a vast number of individuals, as correctly pointed out by the reply poster, assuming you would do nothing to contain the outbreak.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 05:37:35 pm
You're again cherry-picking my quotes.

Don't get me wrong. I have nothing against you, I was just posting against the extreme solution that you referred, not the one you proposed.

To be very clear: the extreme endpoint I've mentioned is just that, an endpoint, not a solution. At least not a humane one. Anyone advocating such horrors would be on his own morals and history will judge him or her, as far as it concerns me. The danger with this virus' cocktail of properties, is exactly that: if you do nothing as a population, you're heading for straight horror.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 18, 2020, 06:04:03 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??

Current mortality rates on known infected individuals are in the 3-3.5% range (last time I've checked at least, but it has been pretty much the same since the outbreak in China). However, more individuals get infected than just the known cases, who present few or no symptoms, or simply because countries can't test everyone. So this lowers the real mortality rate vs. a population. Experts think this would take it down to about 1% or so, taking the infected individuals into account who stayed under the radar. But this is still a vast number of individuals, as correctly pointed out by the reply poster, assuming you would do nothing to contain the outbreak.

That number is pretty important one, I would say. The issue I see is the CFR values I've seen and heard in last 2 weeks varies from 15 to 0.1.

For example a report from 2014 on H1N1 influenza 2009 pandemic CFRs:

Quote
There is very substantial heterogeneity in published estimates of case fatality risk for H1N1pdm09, ranging from <1 to >10,000 per 100,000 infections

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 18, 2020, 06:15:30 pm
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting  :-DD

My grandfather had a TON of weapons and roughly 60,000 rounds of ammo. He slept with a gun under his pillow and a shotgun under his mattress. He literally never hurt anybody and died with not only a stockpile but highly illegal weapons as well that people are afraid of, luckily guns can't shoot themselves. For some people it's just a thing they do, for others they're crazy. You never know what is going to make someone comfortable but it doesn't mean they're going to do anything wrong, they're mostly just trying to make themselves feel safe. It can backfire but I'd rather even wackos feel safe rather than paranoid.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 06:27:04 pm
I think a lot of the wackos are just hoarders, you see the same thing with test equipment. Nobody really needs 10 guns just like nobody really needs 10 oscilloscopes but when something is a hobby we tend to accumulate more of whatever items we enjoy tinkering with than we really need. Also some people really are nutty, although I gotta say, after seeing the panic, hoarding and generally bizarre behavior occurring around the Covid virus the crazy guys with hideouts full of supplies and weapons in rural Idaho and such don't look quite as crazy as they did. I shudder to think what will happen when a much more deadly virus comes along, even this one is going to cause MASSIVE economic fallout. I would not be surprised if more people die due to losing their jobs and in turn losing their healthcare, food and eventually shelter than die from contracting the virus. A massive recession or depression WILL kill people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:34:23 pm
Social pressure only works in groups of less than 2,000 or so people.  In cities like Helsinki, where a lot of people have moved to the city as young adults, anonymity is used as a shield against social pressure.  It is like backlash, after growing up in smaller circles where everybody knew you; suddenly you find yourself having the ability to sidestep all social pressure, and do what you want: it's not like they know you.

I do see a lot of young people just completely disregarding any quarantine efforts.  However, I've also seen indications I haven't seen here before, youngsters occasionally offering help to older people they don't know.  That could have been just a random occurrence, though.

What I do know, is that Finns will quietly (grumbling to themselves and their friends) do what they are told, as long as everyone has to do the same.

You let any subset of people off the hook, and very soon nobody will do it.  That sort of fairness is at the core of being a Finn.  "Is there really a need for social distancing, when our borders are kept open for humanitarian immigration?"  "If humanitarian immigrants get to travel as they wish, why should I stay home?"  It is this last one, that will bite Finland in the ass, I believe.

Now that we know that the virus becomes infectitious within a day or two, while the symptoms take around five days to become apparent, social distancing -- or whatever that makes people who believe they are not infected to behave as if they were, and stop spreading the virus around -- and quarantines are even more important than originally believed.  When the symptoms are detectable, the person has been spreading the virus already for days.  That is what we must try to limit here.
"There has to be a way to implicate immigrants in this mess."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 18, 2020, 06:34:41 pm
Nobody really needs 10 guns .............
If it's a pursuit you don't partake in you can be excused for thinking such however for those that do and partake in the many sporting disciplines 10 might not be enough.
Like screwdrivers, you need a different one for each job.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 06:35:13 pm
That number is pretty important one, I would say. The issue I see is the CFR values I've seen and heard in last 2 weeks varies from 15 to 0.1.

We're in the wild guessing range so it seems. There is shortage of everything, including test kits. So figures are off. The WHO wants countries to test more so they get their numbers right, but what do you do when there's a limited amount of tests left in the field? They mainly reserve them for hospitalized patients or severe cases. Others with suspect symptoms are told to stay at home and call emergency when its gets really worse, period.

But before hell broke lose on this side of the globe and all was in China, I've counted mortality several times and always came in that 3-3.5% range. At that time, one could suppose there were still sufficient test kits available. So an actual total mortality rate of 1% in an uncontrolled situation makes sense. Taking into account untested individuals, the no-symptom individuals and individuals that build up immunity and slow the spreading down. I suspect the latter is going to be really limited, given the speed the infection is progressing and the total absence of immunity. Over time, yes, but not now.

Observing these numbers I found them worrying and weeks ago I spoke about them once in a while. They were usually met with some laughter and "ok, shall we get another drink now?". Now we're here.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 06:42:01 pm
Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.

The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 06:51:14 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

It was the second wave of the Spanish flu that killed nearly every person it infected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 18, 2020, 06:58:26 pm
Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.

66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.

The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

The coronavirus will almost certainly kill me but the flu wouldn't and it's pretty unlikely I'd die randomly anyway. I have severe asthma and just got discharged from the hospital for a pneumomediastinum. Anybody with COPD issues, or alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency is at much higher risk to this than most anything else they would have caught otherwise. This isn't something you should dismiss as just slightly accelerating the inevitable as it can kill a lot of people who otherwise have a lot of time left.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 07:10:00 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

It was the second wave of the Spanish flu that killed nearly every person it infected.

Interestingly, the high total fatality count of the second wave was atypical and (according to Wikipedia) is attributed to the conditions in the front trenches during WW1. The second wave spread there and the severely sick soldiers were moved out of the battlefield in crowded trains, spreading the virus like crazy. It's atypical because (usually) the deadlier a virus strain, the less chance it gets for reproduction. Due to the conditions during WW1 the selection was reversed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 07:22:45 pm
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

I wish her a prompt recover.
In any case here in Italy they hospitalize just people with severe symptoms.
Most of affected cases are just quarantined at home as they manage to get over the disease with just flue-like symptoms.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 07:38:19 pm
The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.

Experts are ok. I mean, real medical experts. WHO has given good advice; Chinese health experts have given good advice. They have also given good advice to the governments all over the world. But the governments didn't listen, because they are freaking stupid and the fear.

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

For many, it's very confusing. For example, here I believe people have taken the official advice quite seriously, but because the official response has been two weeks too late from the start, it doesn't help. You need to listen to the actual experts directly, bypassing the officials (who add the 2-week delay). But only a small percentage of us does this.

To tell the truth nobody foresaw this kind of development, neither did WHO experts who at first thought that checking temperature with IR devices at the airports, like they did during SARS and MERS crisis, would have been enough.

Italian health minister was criticized because he had shut off all direct flights from China. He was a bit late, but if all the European countries had done the same and had tracked all people who had got from China during January there would be no pandemic now.

The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn from the unavoidable mistakes that have been made here at the beginning.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 07:43:49 pm
Although EU is closing its borders to curb the spread of the pandemic, Finland and Sweden have emphasized that humanitarian migrants can still cross our borders unhindered, because that's what is most important right now, right?

you're right.. that's nonsense... they will get infected too
This is a serious crisis, you have to evaluate carefully the priorities and act rationally.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 07:54:51 pm
This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!

Anybody who's been a regular reader of New Scientist or similar level-headed board science journals/magazine could have told you that this is a "not of, but when" situation. There have been calls for better emergency preparedness for a pandemic going back to the 1980s when I started reading New Scientist.

the problem is that we have been just too lucky with SARS and MERS, while 2009 swine flue quickly became a mild disease (and some people even pretended that all plans and vaccines were made just to benefit the pharmaceutic industry), while Chinese and Asian in general had learnt from past experiences and made some plans for future outbreak.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 08:03:07 pm
Herd immunity is where some, but not all, individuals in a population are immune to a disease in a way that effectively protects the whole population from that disease. The idea is that enough individuals have active immunity* to a specific disease that should a single individual (who is still susceptible to the disease) catch the disease it won't spread.

While coronavirus is likely to work that way, there are other viruses who are worse and worse once you catch them again (like dengue).

Besides that you can expect the virus to mutate as other human coronaviruses do and affect people each year with usually mild flue-like symptoms. I mean those coronaviruses that have been with us for centuries have not been wiped out by herd immunity.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 08:07:28 pm
Herd immunity is where some, but not all, individuals in a population are immune to a disease in a way that effectively protects the whole population from that disease. The idea is that enough individuals have active immunity* to a specific disease that should a single individual (who is still susceptible to the disease) catch the disease it won't spread.

While coronavirus is likely to work that way, there are other viruses who are worse and worse once you catch them again (like dengue).

Besides that you can expect the virus to mutate as other human coronaviruses do and affect people each year with usually mild flue-like symptoms. I mean those coronaviruses that have been with us for centuries have not been wiped out by herd immunity.
Agreed. I expect that -like the Mexican / swine flu- we'll see the Corona virus return every season. Which IMHO is why a vaccine is so important.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 08:16:54 pm
We're in the wild guessing range so it seems. There is shortage of everything, including test kits. So figures are off. The WHO wants countries to test more so they get their numbers right, but what do you do when there's a limited amount of tests left in the field? They mainly reserve them for hospitalized patients or severe cases. Others with suspect symptoms are told to stay at home and call emergency when its gets really worse, period.

the problem is not (just) the shortage (or cost) of test kits.
It is logistic.
You need trained people (who are already busy with people in the hospitals) with full protective devices to test mr A and then test mr B ensuring you do not transmit the virus from A to B. It takes lots of time and resources. Both of which we lack for sure.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 18, 2020, 08:22:16 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 18, 2020, 08:33:06 pm
..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Where this 1% comes from??

Generally mentioned parameters:

Without proactive testing, around 25% of infected people get tested - others have mild/no symptoms and don't get tested.

10% of those tested positive require hospitalization (~ 2.5% if testing a large proportion of population)

3.4% of those tested positive die (~ 1% if testing a large proportion of population).

If you want to check these numbers have a look at South Korea, who have been testing the crap out of people: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/) Currently 8,413 cases, and 84 deaths. They have performed more than 4 tests per thousand people. Compared to say the USA's 0.026 tests per thousand. (see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/) )

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: floobydust on March 18, 2020, 08:39:07 pm
Finally some recent research data on the fomites.  SARS-CoV-2 (formerly called HCoV-19) Stability Similar to Original SARS Virus.
New Coronavirus Stable for Hours on Surfaces (https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces)

"... detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel."
Half-life: "... Half-life about 66 minutes for half the virus particles to lose function if they are in an aerosol droplet. That means that after another hour and six minutes (two hours and 12 minutes in total), three-quarters of the virus particles will be essentially inactivated but 25 per cent will still be viable. The amount of viable virus at the end of the third hour will be down to 12.5 per cent, according to the research led by Neeltje van Doremalen of NIAID's Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories.
On stainless steel, it takes five hours 38 minutes for half of the virus particles to become inactive. On plastic, the half-life is six hours 49 minutes, researchers found.
On cardboard, the half-life was about 3.5 hours, but the researchers said there was a lot of variability in those results "so we advise caution" interpreting that number."

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973)
"We found that the stability of SARS-CoV-2 was similar to that of SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental circumstances tested. This indicates that differences in the epidemiologic characteristics of these viruses probably arise from other factors, including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic.3,4  Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events,5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 08:45:35 pm
I think a lot of the wackos are just hoarders, you see the same thing with test equipment.

[Fx: Foghorn Leghorn accent] Now hold, I say, hold on. Ya need to be careful saying things like that around here. It could get real ugly real fast...  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 09:00:57 pm
Finally some recent research data on the fomites.  SARS-CoV-2 (formerly called HCoV-19) Stability Similar to Original SARS Virus.

Long story short: desinfect your hands and what you are touching outside your home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 09:02:54 pm
So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.

Northern Ireland reports 62 cases.  I call bullshit on that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 09:08:05 pm
absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Do you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 18, 2020, 09:09:30 pm
Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days

Does this translate in "we're fucked!", in plain English?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 09:09:37 pm
absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Do you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 09:13:43 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 09:19:42 pm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)
That just confirms what I said?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 09:21:05 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 18, 2020, 09:29:22 pm
The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.


The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn ....
You are wrong. Spain haven't yet learnt any. Spain is giving of stick of blind. Here, when the goverment was been  wroten the measure of the state of emergency. The forth viceminister break the quarantine and wnet to Moncloa for imposing his plan Venezuela: expropriations and nationalizations and banninig the take the competencies of health and security in Catuluña and Pais Vasco. The reunion dured several hours until the economy minister the threatened with her resignation if the plan of 4th Viceminister is aproved. Luckly, the plan of 4 viceminister wasn't aproved.

At this moment, we have several goverment infected with case mild of covid, but this motherfucker released test them.  While the sanitary personal, suspect infected and mild cases are denied constantly.

At Cataluña , the medics , nurses , policeman and prision official have banned to wear MASK. Furthermore , the sons of bitches have a mask factory(Cataluña goverment) with all their production destined to Italy when here lack mask in all hospitals of region.Why don't they increase the production? By phenicians.

Armancio Ortega has offered all his factories and his logistic for manufactoring masks and other medic equipment. What is "Falconetti" waiting for approving?  That the chinese comunity have to donate masks  to Guardia Civil and the National police. That is shameful and sultry.

Spain corrected their wrong when make these stuff:

  1.To fire a Francisco Simon by lied and fail all the pronostics.
  2.To hang by the balls or of pigtail  to Pablo Iglesia ,4th Viceminister for violating the quarantine.
  3.Displacing the UME to Pais Vasco and Cataluña like the rest of Spain .
  4.Take away the Falcon to Falconetty and forming with 2 Viceminister a  coalition goverment with the opposition.
  5.Put to manufacturing  medical items with the army drug factory,  with anothers factories like Amancio Ortega.
 




Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 10:06:21 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

Google search for "corona virus age bracket", first hit:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/)

Quote
The CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.

More than raw numbers, the percent of total cases gives a sense of the risk to different age groups. For instance, just 1.6% to 2.5% of 123 infected people 19 and under were admitted to hospitals; none needed intensive care and none has died.

But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.

In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.

So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 10:24:28 pm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)
That just confirms what I said?

I wasn't countering either of your points of view, just had that reference to hand in another browser tab.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 18, 2020, 10:30:52 pm
So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.

No.  Chances are you won't be.  You have less probability of being hospitalized than not being.

That does not fit with the qualifier "Chances are."

Chances are you won't.... though you still could.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 18, 2020, 10:35:43 pm
So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.
People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub  :palm:  :palm:
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 18, 2020, 10:38:21 pm
So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.

No.  Chances are you won't be.  You have less probability of being hospitalized than not being.

That does not fit with the qualifier "Chances are."

Chances are you won't.... though you still could.

Well, yes. I'm no native speaker and Germans don't have an equal affinity to betting as you Brits do ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:03:08 pm
So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.
People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub  :palm:  :palm:
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

In physics every action has an equal but opposite reaction. In society I think a similar thing happens, some people over-react to extreme levels of caution, leading other people to over-react to equally extreme levels of carlessness.

It's unfortunate that it has been so binary, rather than everyone just taking sensible steps like washing hands often and properly, staying home if they are sick or have been exposed to someone who is sick and just generally trying to avoid spreading infectious disease. I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 18, 2020, 11:04:56 pm
I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

At that point you've got two choices:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:06:25 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:10:07 pm
People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub  :palm:  :palm:
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

That was the less smart part of the Belgians. Most people got it more or less. But as always, the stupid part makes headlines.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:13:23 pm
Nobody really needs 10 guns .............
If it's a pursuit you don't partake in you can be excused for thinking such however for those that do and partake in the many sporting disciplines 10 might not be enough.
Like screwdrivers, you need a different one for each job.

It was just a number I pulled out of the air for the sake of illustration. I don't care how many of whatever object somebody has, the more important point is that one is not required to justify a need in order to own something, and when one is interested in something they tend to accumulate items related to that interest, usually more of said items than they truly need, and there's nothing wrong with that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 18, 2020, 11:14:12 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 11:16:27 pm
Google search for "corona virus age bracket", first hit:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/)

Quote
The CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.

More than raw numbers, the percent of total cases gives a sense of the risk to different age groups. For instance, just 1.6% to 2.5% of 123 infected people 19 and under were admitted to hospitals; none needed intensive care and none has died.

But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.

In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.

So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.
I guess you could argue about definitions but I'd qualify that as a rather small percentage, especially as the reported patients are likely the tip of a bigger iceberg with people unaware of their infection or just staying at home for a few days. The numbers or stories don't seem to reflect healthy people needing a lot of help. Elderly or people with pre-existing conditions are at risk and tend to need some to a lot of help.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 11:17:26 pm
Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.
Please quote numbers and sources. Gloomy prophecies aren't helpful.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:18:19 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

So far that matches all the official data I've come across too. Children very rarely show more than very mild symptoms, the severity rises with age but even in middle age a majority have nothing more than normal cold/flu-like symptoms. Beyond age 60 the risk of serious complications rises dramatically, although the same is true of the flu.

Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.

"Chances are" implies a majority. If 70% of infections resulted in hospitalization then I'd consider it reasonable to say that "chances are you will end up in the hospital if you are infected" but in reality "chances are" you will recover without complications regardless of your age group if you are in reasonable overall health. That doesn't mean it is guaranteed or that there is not a very real risk but a substantial majority are recovering on their own.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 18, 2020, 11:22:28 pm
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.

Pre-existing conditions (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/) add percentages. Many of the 30-50 age "healthy" persons (especially in Europe and US) posses some of them, without knowing about it..



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 11:23:13 pm
No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.
I disagree. The regular flu costs many lives every year and that's despite it being both heavily monitored and fought with extensive flu shot programs. I don't think people understand the effort that goes into keeping the flu manageable. Yet that too is something most healthy people shrug off or sit out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 18, 2020, 11:29:11 pm
No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.
I disagree. The regular flu costs many lives every year and that's despite it being both heavily monitored and fought with extensive flu shot programs. I don't think people understand the effort that goes into keeping the flu manageable. Yet that too is something most healthy people shrug off or sit out.

The flue kills between 10,000 and 20,000 people every year in the USA. That's around 30-60 people every day, some of them quite young, when I was a kid one of my little brother's friends died of the flu when he was 8 or 9. Jim Henson died of the flu when he was 53. The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 18, 2020, 11:47:48 pm
Below is an article about the risk the virus poses to various age groups and how that compares to the flu. It confirms that while younger people do get gravely ill that indeed is the exception. The group of people younger than 40 y/o dying is very small and may have had pre-existing conditions.

"There will be, as we’ve seen in influenza, an occasional person, who’s young and healthy, who winds up getting COVID-19, seriously ill and dies,” Fauci said in an interview with Dr. Howard Bauchner, the editor of JAMA. “But if you look at the weight of the data, the risk group is very, very clear."

"People 60 and older accounted for more than 80% of the deaths in China, according to a major study in the Journal of the American Medical Assn.

"Indeed, in the 2018-19 flu season, 2,450 people between the ages of 18 and 49 died in the United States, according to the CDC. The mortality rate from the flu is lower than from COVID-19, but far more people caught the flu last season — more than 35 million — than have gotten COVID-19 so far this year."


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19-risk-healthy-young-person (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19-risk-healthy-young-person)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 18, 2020, 11:52:32 pm
Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.

If had a dime every time I have read this bullshit, Jeff Bezos would be my butler.

I mean, of all places, this is a forum for electronics-oriented folks.
Have you ever seen the characteristic of a diode?
What you are seeing now with Covid-19 is the part close to the axis, before the knee.
The number you mention about the flu is the maximum allowed current.

But mortality when all people have access to hospitalization and ICU when needed is the least of the problems.
The real problem is the 20% that will require hospitalization when there will be no more place for them.

If the curve is not flattened, this will make the mortality skyrocket.
Think magic smoke escaping from a diode.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 12:02:43 am
If had a dime every time I have read this bullshit, Jeff Bezos would be my butler.

I mean, of all places, this is a forum for electronics-oriented folks.
Have you ever seen the characteristic of a diode?
What you are seeing now with Covid-19 is the part close to the axis, before the knee.
The number you mention about the flu is the maximum allowed current.

But mortality when all people have access to hospitalization and ICU when needed is the least of the problems.
The real problem is the 20% that will require hospitalization when there will be no more place for them.

If the curve is not flattened, this will make the mortality skyrocket.
Think magic smoke escaping from a diode.
Please be civil. What you say doesn't necessarily contradict what james_s posted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 12:03:37 am
Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.

If had a dime every time I have read this bullshit, Jeff Bezos would be my butler.

I mean, of all places, this is a forum for electronics-oriented folks.
Have you ever seen the characteristic of a diode?
What you are seeing now with Covid-19 is the part close to the axis, before the knee.
The number you mention about the flu is the maximum allowed current.

But mortality when all people have access to hospitalization and ICU when needed is the least of the problems.
The real problem is the 20% that will require hospitalization when there will be no more place for them.

If the curve is not flattened, this will make the mortality skyrocket.
Think magic smoke escaping from a diode.

Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

And why are people in such a panic about Covid? Most of us will get it at some point, most of us will survive, a few will not, mostly the old and/or weak, mother nature is a cruel mistress.

My point is not that Covid is harmless, it's that the flu is dangerous and that we should be responding rationally to both, not panicking, hoarding toilet paper and filling the airwaves with heavily sensationalized news that stirs up fear and panic. The fallout from the panic is going to kill many more people than the virus. Overreacting with fear also pushes others to blow off the danger as BS and overreact with carelessness. We should be careful, we should take steps, but we should also remain calm, not panic and carefully weigh the impacts of our reaction on society and consider the cost in life and everything else of some of the actions we are taking. If the economy collapses and we face massive unemployment large numbers of people will die due to lack of healthcare, food, shelter and other essentials.

My view is similar to aviation. When you are flying a plane and something goes wrong, the #1 priority *always* is FLY THE PLANE. Then manage any other available resources to try to solve the problem and get out of trouble, but if you panic and crash because you are so focused on reacting to the problem that you forgot your most basic priority then the rest is moot. In our case our main priority needs to be to keep society going, keep people employed, keep the world running because if that all comes crashing down we won't have the luxury to worry about some people getting sick.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 19, 2020, 12:08:10 am
Some interesting reading on numbers:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 12:10:10 am
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 12:11:32 am
Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.
Please quote numbers and sources. Gloomy prophecies aren't helpful.

Figures being used by the Imperial College group for their modelling.

Age groupPercentage of symptomatic cases that will require hospitalizationPercentage of those hospitalized that will require ICUInfection Fatality RatioPopulation by age group (UK mid 2019)
0-9     0.10%   5.00%   0.002%   8,052,552
10-19 0.30%   5.00%   0.006%   7,528,144
20-29 1.20%   5.00%   0.03%   8,711,750
30-39 3.20%   5.00%   0.08%   8,835,591
40-49 4.90%   6.30%   0.15%   8,500,792
50-59 10.20%   12.20%   0.60%   8,968,055
60-69 16.60%   27.40%   2.20%   7,069,544
70-79 24.30%   43.20%   5.10%   5,487,167
80+     27.30%   70.90%   9.30%   3,281,955
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 19, 2020, 12:19:39 am
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.

How about doing some electronics?  :D

I've been experimenting with exporting waveforms sampled by an oscilloscope, and using them as input to an LTSpice simulation.  Works surprisingly well!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 12:21:21 am
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 12:24:10 am

Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?


10 thousand are nothing compared to the damage Covid-19 can cause.
You are comparing the maximum current of a small signal diode with the maximum current of a power diode.

Quote
And why are people in such a panic about Covid? Most of us will get it at some point, most of us will survive, a few will not, mostly the old and/or weak, mother nature is a cruel mistress.

It's not panic, it's awareness of the risks necessary to mitigate the deadly outcome.
Do the math, and compute after how many days your country will run out of hospital beds.
The flu is a joke in comparison.
And yes, the flu is scaringly deadly. But by comparison this is far worse.

I mean, have any of you guys seen what is happening in Italy? The hospital overwhelmed? The cemeteries overwhelmed? Do you think it's even slightly comparable to the flu?
People who think it's not that different from the flu is the cause of the unnecessary spread. And that unnecessary spread is the cause of the hospitals being overwhelmed.
And that leads to unnecessary deaths.

And the problem is that I called bullshit a bullshit?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ)

It's like watching frogs being slowly boiled.




Hey Dave, it's still too soon for that image?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 12:26:43 am
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?
Covid19 is likely to kill a lot more. First because of the higher mortality rate and secondly due to the severeness of the symptoms. Look at the UK numbers Cerebus posted. Likely none of the people over 50 will have an ICU bed available and will die if they need one. Do the math. In these age groups alone and you are getting into the hundreds of thousands of people easely. And nobody is lax about flu. Older people tend to get flu shots which do help.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 19, 2020, 12:45:53 am
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 01:03:33 am
Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.

Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).

So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:10:40 am
Covid19 is likely to kill a lot more. First because of the higher mortality rate and secondly due to the severeness of the symptoms. Look at the UK numbers Cerebus posted. Likely none of the people over 50 will have an ICU bed available and will die if they need one. Do the math. In these age groups alone and you are getting into the hundreds of thousands of people easely. And nobody is lax about flu. Older people tend to get flu shots which do help.
The UK numbers are estimates and projections, not actual numbers. The issue is we don't have great numbers right now so we need to do some worst case guesstimating.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:13:57 am
Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.

Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).

So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.
The article posted a few posts up details how we don't have reliable numbers and the ones we do have are likely skewed. It's still a situation we need to take seriously.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 01:15:36 am
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.

As opposed, obviously, to your valued, reasoned, contributions so far:

The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts".
India has found a cure for Covid !

https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/ (https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/)

and so on. If you believe your own advice to be good, perhaps you might take it yourself?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:22:37 am
10 thousand are nothing compared to the damage Covid-19 can cause.
You are comparing the maximum current of a small signal diode with the maximum current of a power diode.

It's not panic, it's awareness of the risks necessary to mitigate the deadly outcome.
Do the math, and compute after how many days your country will run out of hospital beds.
The flu is a joke in comparison.
And yes, the flu is scaringly deadly. But by comparison this is far worse.

I mean, have any of you guys seen what is happening in Italy? The hospital overwhelmed? The cemeteries overwhelmed? Do you think it's even slightly comparable to the flu?
People who think it's not that different from the flu is the cause of the unnecessary spread. And that unnecessary spread is the cause of the hospitals being overwhelmed.
And that leads to unnecessary deaths.

And the problem is that I called bullshit a bullshit?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ)

It's like watching frogs being slowly boiled.


Hey Dave, it's still too soon for that image?
Calm down. Remember to breathe. Frenzied posting about how Italy is burning down isn't helping anyone, especially when you consistently omit to post numbers and sources. Less emotions and more facts. You also may want to read the article posted before.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 01:28:43 am
How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.
Yes, please.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 02:09:45 am
Calm down. Remember to breathe. Frenzied posting about how Italy is burning down isn't helping anyone, especially when you consistently omit to post numbers and sources.

Numbers? Sources?
Do you really believe this is made up?
The numbers in Italy come from the institutions there, namely the "Protezione Civile". You can read them on any 'Coronavirus counter', for example the one run by Johns Hopkins University. They match.
The "Eco di Bergamo" newspaper had ten pages of obituaries, when usually there is only one.
Does this tell you something about how silly is it to talk about the incidence of the number of tests on the CFR?
If the mortality was 10, 20 or 60 times less then EDIT: the current CFR and hence comparable to EDIT the flu you would not see that many deaths.
All the hospitals of Lombardy are running out of ICUs. And several dozens patients had already been offloaded to other regions.

Quote
Less emotions and more facts. You also may want to read the article posted before.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)

Oh, I have read it. And I have already seen this before . There is always the odd virologist or odd epidemiologist who makes this kind of predictions. There were one or two in Italy as well, now they have retracted or are nowhere to be found. And they were considered highly esteemed professionals in their field.

Probably excellent doctors, a bit weak in math.
Have you read the comments? Someone there is asking where did he pull that number from.

Do you think you are original?
I've seen this going on in Italy, in Spain, in France, in UK and now in the US. It is almost unbelievable how similar the patter is, despite all the cultural differences.

The really sad part is that I do not need to convince you.
You will see for yourself.

Then, when you will try to warn people from other countries that this is not a statistical artifact, they will probably tell you "calm down, breathe". I hope you won't find the latter difficult.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 02:21:54 am
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 02:28:30 am
Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.

Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).

So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.


What I think is that it is virtually irrelevant because we're so focused on reacting to the crisis that nobody is flying the plane and it's going to crash, making the rest of the issue moot. If the whole system comes crashing down people are going to be dying of all sorts of stuff because they won't have access to medical care. The number one priority HAS to be to keep the world running because everything else fully depends on that. Do you think Covid is just going to go away after a few weeks? What do we do when it pops up again? Do we shut everything down indefinitely until we're all unemployed and homeless?


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 19, 2020, 02:52:01 am
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:05:56 am
Numbers? Sources?
Do you really believe this is made up?
The numbers in Italy come from the institutions there, namely the "Protezione Civile". You can read them on any 'Coronavirus counter', for example the one run by Johns Hopkins University. They match.
The "Eco di Bergamo" newspaper had ten pages of obituaries, when usually there is only one.
Does this tell you something about how silly is it to talk about the incidence of the number of tests on the CFR?
If the mortality was 10, 20 or 60 times less then EDIT: the current CFR and hence comparable to EDIT the flu you would not see that many deaths.
All the hospitals of Lombardy are running out of ICUs. And several dozens patients had already been offloaded to other regions.

Oh, I have read it. And I have already seen this before . There is always the odd virologist or odd epidemiologist who makes this kind of predictions. There were one or two in Italy as well, now they have retracted or are nowhere to be found. And they were considered highly esteemed professionals in their field.

Probably excellent doctors, a bit weak in math.
Have you read the comments? Someone there is asking where did he pull that number from.

Do you think you are original?
I've seen this going on in Italy, in Spain, in France, in UK and now in the US. It is almost unbelievable how similar the patter is, despite all the cultural differences.

The really sad part is that I do not need to convince you.
You will see for yourself.

Then, when you will try to warn people from other countries that this is not a statistical artifact, they will probably tell you "calm down, breathe". I hope you won't find the latter difficult.
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language yet do far have posted nothing more substantial than some casual US news coverage. I don't think there's much discussion to be had about that. Without a tangible understanding of what's going on we're definitely going under so we need to look, see and act.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 03:12:34 am
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.

For what it's worth the figures came from here Where to Get Free or the Cheapest Flu Shots (updated 2020) (https://20somethingfinance.com/where-to-get-cheap-or-free-flu-shots/) but the exact cost is irrelevant as I was taking issue with the "too lazy" or "too crazy" characterisation being made about people from the US by someone from the US when, as we all know, with high American health costs, access to vaccination can be a problem for some people. Just seemed unfair to that class of people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:14:53 am
Although it's a mainstream media piece the article linked gives some insights into why it could be that Italy is hit harder than South Korea.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 03:19:18 am
Well the number of people I personally know who don't bother or actively refuse to get vaccinated suggests it is a very real problem. A good friend of mine with a 6 figure income and excellent health insurance has never had a flu shot because he insists it's all some kind of money grabbing conspiracy to make him sick. I've given up on discussing such things with him because I value our friendship over being right but his mindset is not rare.

The broader anti-vax movement has led to a resurgence of measles and other formerly nearly eradicated diseases and you can bet that if a Covid vaccine is developed there will be many thousands of people who refuse to get it or blow it off as an unnecessary waste of effort.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 19, 2020, 03:23:08 am
Some things are normal. Indian scam merchants from the Microsoft Technical Help Department are still calling Australians daily in an attempt to commit fraud. Too bad we cannot kill these scammers with a virus.

With all the cash splashing going on over this virus, there will be scammers bleeding the system for all it is worth. Most governments cannot engineer a process quickly that is not full of holes. Most governments are reactive, no proactive. I can see scams, fiascoes and debacles on the horizon. This time it is going to be worse than the GFC cash splash, because the sums are bigger and the governments won't see the problems they have created before it is too late.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 19, 2020, 03:27:27 am
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language

Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 19, 2020, 03:30:03 am
Some things are normal. Indian scam merchants from the Microsoft Technical Help Department are still calling Australians daily in an attempt to commit fraud. Too bad we cannot kill these scammers with a virus.

With all the cash splashing going on over this virus, there will be scammers bleeding the system for all it is worth. Most governments cannot engineer a process quickly that is not full of holes. Most governments are reactive, no proactive. I can see scams, fiascoes and debacles on the horizon. This time it is going to be worse than the GFC cash splash, because the sums are bigger and the governments won't see the problems they have created before it is too late.
With many stuck at home, wouldn't it be a good use of time to feed the scammers junk data to waste their time?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:48:59 am
Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.
Considering you flat out refuse to post anything else than "see for yourself" I can't help but conclude you don't actually know what's going on. I understand that the changes and incessant torrents of news are scary. Looking carefully at what we actually know can make it less scary.

Admittedly the idea of yelling there's a fire and subsequently refusing to comment on what's on fire and where is amusing because of how absurd it is.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 03:53:33 am
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language

Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.

You're not informing someone that their house is on fire, you're running around in circles screaming that the sky is falling and accusing anyone who refuses to get caught up in your panic of thinking there's no problem at all.

What precisely are you advocating beyond that everyone should be afraid? How long should we keep everything shut down? What is an acceptable number of people to force out of their livelihood depriving them of food, shelter and medicine in order to try to slow the spread? What do we do if this is still going around 6 months from now or when it flares up again while we are still reeling from the impact of the initial panic?

This reminds me too much of my partner's mother. She is absolutely useless in an emergency, she panics and freezes up, becomes completely incapable of acting in any useful way and makes whatever situation much worse by getting in the way and distracting everyone else into dealing with her instead of doing something useful. Panic is never helpful, it fixes nothing, it stirs everybody up into a helpless frenzy and prevents rational thought. Panic is going to make a bad situation far, far more dire.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 19, 2020, 06:10:10 am

They leave to die.

https://youtu.be/7z-_v1H23Qo (https://youtu.be/7z-_v1H23Qo)

Brief trancription.

We have order of our superiors.To  leave to die  elder people because we haven't sufficient respirators. But after in TV, they said that have to protect elder people(Hospital "Puerta de Hierro",Madrid 18/03/2020)


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bsfeechannel on March 19, 2020, 06:34:14 am
How long should we keep everything shut down?

Long enough not to overcrowd the ICUs.

Quote
What is an acceptable number of people to force out of their livelihood depriving them of food, shelter and medicine in order to try to slow the spread?

Shut the eff down. Don't waste your time discussing.

Quote
Panic is going to make a bad situation far, far more dire.

The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.97%, while in Italy is 7.94%. It seems that "panicking" is the right approach.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 19, 2020, 06:59:15 am
If you, dear foreigner, want to visit Australia soon you now have no hope according to this boofhead...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/coronavirus-non-resident-travel-ban-australia/12071640 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/coronavirus-non-resident-travel-ban-australia/12071640)

The Australian govt is in now panic mode. Ad-hoc announcements and no planning.  The Home Affairs website is overloaded. This shock announcement means Chinese students who are not residents won't be coming here to return to their studies in the foreseeable future. People with visas to get married within a certain time frame may never be allowed in this country and they won't get their $6K visa fees back (I know someone in that predicament). It is illegal to congregate with more than 100 people in this state, and yet the huge casino is exempt.

It is a complete debacle.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 07:22:42 am
mr Erdogan has found a new weapon
Turkey is one of the main manufacturers of respiratory protective devices in the world, they can produce millions of pieces per day, but are blocking exports even if they currently have no need for them.
Hungary instead is just seizing those devices in transit.

Here is the newspaper article (translated via google) (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fdataroom-milena-gabanelli%2F20_marzo_19%2Fcoronavirus-200-mila-mascherine-gli-ospedali-italiani-bloccate-ad-ankara-15-giorni-2b0ea5be-695d-11ea-913c-55c2df06d574.shtml)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 19, 2020, 07:38:41 am
Wuhan reports 0 new cases today.
They have new cases coming from abroad, however..

Reuters: (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/beijing-hit-by-record-imported-coronavirus-cases-zero-china-transmissions-idUSKBN216085)
Quote
Beijing saw a record number of imported coronavirus cases, data released on Thursday showed, as new local transmissions in China fell to zero, putting more pressure on the capital to screen out infected passengers and isolate suspected cases.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 19, 2020, 08:30:46 am
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

So I'm looking at it from the outside.  Tell me the above isn't true... for the majority and definitely those in lower paid jobs with no medical insurance.

What are the "deaths from flu" per capita of the US compared to the rest of the western world?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 19, 2020, 08:36:27 am
Coming from a govt agency, it is estimated that 6300 deaths can be attributed to flu in the 2018-2019 period in Spain. Covid toll seems above 600 now.

A normal flu doesn't erupt in this shape of curve. And this virus has managed to kill in 2 weeks 1/10 what a normal flu will kill in 52 weeks.

How this is going to go is...
But the flu kills 10 times what Covid19 does!
...
But the flu kills 5 times what Covid19 does!
But the flu kills twice what Covid19 does!
But the flu kills the same number as Covid19 does!
...

Oh.  Sorry.

But covid19 killed 10 times what flu did this year.



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 19, 2020, 08:40:21 am
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

So I'm looking at it from the outside.  Tell me the above isn't true... for the majority and definitely those in lower paid jobs with no medical insurance.

What are the "deaths from flu" per capita of the US compared to the rest of the western world?

https://championtraveler.com/news/the-us-flu-season-is-bad-this-year-but-influenza-is-still-way-more-deadly-around-the-world/

It's likely fewer people would die of the flu if they took it more seriously. I really don't think it's a matter of cost. Literally anyone can go to an ER and be treated regardless of insurance or even an ID.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 19, 2020, 09:02:51 am

How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.
Yes, please.

What's there to say when it's getting pretty obvious by now, even to the idiot hoarders  :palm:  what's going on   :popcorn:

The lack of dunny paper is what assholes want to say, they have Rights too  ;D

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SerieZ on March 19, 2020, 09:11:02 am
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare.  :palm:

The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
 |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 19, 2020, 10:42:03 am
The flue kills between 10,000 and 20,000 people every year in the USA. That's around 30-60 people every day, some of them quite young, when I was a kid one of my little brother's friends died of the flu when he was 8 or 9. Jim Henson died of the flu when he was 53. The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.

It does, but there seems to be a very real difference here. Above all the infection speed and long incubation period combo, which is taking all health care services worldwide by surprise. When this will be over, notwithstanding all measures taken, mortality rate will likely be a multiple higher than flu. By now it is clear older people are very much at risk, but younger people make it rapidly to the ER departments as well, which doesn't say anything about their survival rate or their quality of recovery. Do you find it reassuring you have a high chance of survival given your age, but you may end up in the intensive care? Not something to look forward to. Especially if there is a risk all beds all full! It could be that one year from now, figures will be similar to flu figures even though I'd expect it to be multiples, eventually. But for now it is very clear the best one can classify this would be "a very aggressive flu on steroids". Just the speed aspect of it, ignoring all other unknowns for now, is a threat to public health.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 10:59:50 am
Are you sure?
There is a HUGE spike in deaths in every country in december/january. Take this data from the UK for example

1) You're quoting "all causes" mortality - UK health statistics are good enough that you can actually find not just Influenza deaths, but cases by diagnosed Influenza serotype. (Official Statistics: Weekly national flu reports: 2019 to 2020 season (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season))
2) Your HUGE spike in all causes mortality is, in fact, a moderate bump - with winter peak mortality is, at 1600 a day in January versus 1200 a day in July, a mere 10% higher than the annualised average death rate and only 20% more than the minimum rate. Presumably if asked whether you wanted a 'normal' size meal or a 'HUGE' size meal you wouldn't be disappointed when your 'HUGE' meal only turned out to be a mere 10% bigger?

Quote
In January dayly deaths are more than 400 the normal, this is 12000 more in one month Take that for an increase in the curve.

Since when did the minimum become "the normal"?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on March 19, 2020, 11:18:49 am
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare.  :palm:

The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
 |O

You are confusing paid medical leave ( I was home for a week and still got paid ) with medical bills.

How about bad migraine, you take an over the counter pain killer, you have weird sensation, you call ambulance, they take you to hospital, doctor looks at you for a minute, gives you one injection, and after half an hour your're ok and you go home. A week later you get bill from a hospital for 6500 USD for "services rendered".
I had medical, so they sorted that out.  That is how it was around 1999-2000 in USA. And medical didn't mean dental. You had to get that insurance extra, so you don't have to pay few hundred USD for a minor repair on a tooth.
I don't know how Obamacare works now, but it used to be, basically, you die or pay. Or they treat you and than you go bankrupt.



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 19, 2020, 12:10:26 pm
A friend who is trying to get his fiancee here from China for the past 3 years has had to fork out $40,000 so far due to the Australian government incompetence and this corona virus. That is another story in itself. My friend recently contacted senior immigration officials and they don't even know what is going on. Apparently the government immigration androids have just cancelled 30 partner visas (including my friend's) due to government bureaucratic incompetence and total lack of empathy. None of the partners had the virus and all were in quarantine elsewhere. Therefore, the victims have to go through the whole :bullshit: process again in getting a visa which will take another few years, and no doubt have to hand over another $6K for another application fee - and that is after the sanctions are lifted. It is shameful the way my friend and his partner have been treated by the Australian federal government.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 19, 2020, 12:15:06 pm
Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.

At first I thought this is all crazy and the world has gone mad, but now I think this might be all necessary. We don't know as much about covid, as we do about common flu. It seems to have a higher death rate and is just as contagious. I'm not worried about my own health, because I'm sure I'll survive it, but my parent's are in their 70s. My mum, has had two stokes in the past, is in recovery from surgery on a brain haemorrhage and my day has asthma and a colostomy bag, so it could be very serious for them. Another issue is this could affect the following generation. Children born to mothers with Spanish flu or who caught it when they were very young tended to do poorer in school. We don't want to risk have increased levels of learning disability in the future, so it's better to be overcautious, than do nothing at all.

I think culture and upbringing could also be factors. I'm currently off work because I have a cough, which normally wouldn't bother me. I've been told throughout my life not to be a wimp and call in sick because I'm mildly unwell. When I was at school I won various awards for attendance. I went for four years without being late or off sick and won a crappy prize for it: some book vouchers which I never used.

People are helping one another out. I went out in the front garden this morning to bury some food waste (strongly recommended, if you have a garden: if you don't have room for a compost heap, just bury it in the border). My neighbour stuck her head out of the door and said "I notice you have a bad cough" I said "Yes, that's why I'm off work, keep away from me!" and she said "Well if you need any shopping done for you, don't hesitate to ask" I said "Thanks". It did make me feel happy, but probably won't take her up on her offer as my parents will go shopping on Saturday and I'll ask them to pick up a few things for me. Obviously, I'll ask them to drop them off outside the house and I'll give them the money through the letterbox, to minimise contact.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 19, 2020, 12:20:00 pm
Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.

It has no sense to have production sites in Far East just because the production costs are ie. 4x lower, and when really needed you have to pay 50x more for it, moreover, you cannot get in time and in the amounts required.

Every government at least in EU is complaining today "we don't have this and that handy as it is produced in Far East and to get something off there is difficult, or, it costs you an arm and leg today".

These kind of pandemics will repeat much more often in the future with a similar scenario, so we have to be able to produce the stuff at home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zucca on March 19, 2020, 12:29:38 pm
Before this thread will be locked for obvious reasons, this is my last post here.

Just stay home as much as you can and avoid contact with others persons.

I am done. Good luck you all!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 19, 2020, 12:52:48 pm
Just stay home as much as you can and avoid contact with others persons.

Couldn't agree more, it is the only effective solution for now. Not to protect just yourself, it's mainly to protect others. Now let's hope people really get this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: migry on March 19, 2020, 12:57:57 pm
Not sure if this is the correct thread.
Any idea what the situation is for JLCPCB?
I have used them 5 or so times in 2019, and was likely to have some more PCBs made this year.
I did a quick check and there is nothing about the current situation on their website.
Are they working as normal, reduced capacity, or closed down?
I guess the same question applies to other Chinese businesses. Are the closed down or ploughing on?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 19, 2020, 01:50:39 pm
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu. 

   Why are you, a Briton, so concerned with the US?  FYI, uninsured sick people in the US DO go to the hospital and get treated so the same as everyone else. Even illegals get treated. Go look at the stats for the number of births in the LA and California hospitals. 70 to 80% of all of the births there are to illegal and uninsured mothers.  If someone can't pay upfront the hospitals will try to collect payment after they leave the hospital but usually unsuccessfully and after that they simply write the cost off.  Most hospitals in the US have well over 50% non-paying patients. It's one reason why our hospitals are perpetually underfunded. It's also why paying patients and insurance companies are charged ridiculous charges for even the most minor of actions, the $5 for a cotton ball for example.

   Hospital payments isn't the problem here, the problem is that the US (and no other country) simply doesn't have nearly enough beds, staff or equipment to handle the predicted number of patients.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SerieZ on March 19, 2020, 01:51:58 pm
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare.  :palm:

The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
 |O

You are confusing paid medical leave ( I was home for a week and still got paid ) with medical bills.

How about bad migraine, you take an over the counter pain killer, you have weird sensation, you call ambulance, they take you to hospital, doctor looks at you for a minute, gives you one injection, and after half an hour your're ok and you go home. A week later you get bill from a hospital for 6500 USD for "services rendered".
I had medical, so they sorted that out.  That is how it was around 1999-2000 in USA. And medical didn't mean dental. You had to get that insurance extra, so you don't have to pay few hundred USD for a minor repair on a tooth.
I don't know how Obamacare works now, but it used to be, basically, you die or pay. Or they treat you and than you go bankrupt.

In Switzerland depending on your franchise you pay up to a certain amount out of your Pocket (between 500 - 2500USD/year) and for everything uninsured (dental is an option) (by your choice) after that the Private Insurance covers it. There is no state involved there except that it forces you to get one if you want to be employed.
I know for a fact most americans have an Insurance as well and it is a similar Situation for them. The Problem is with those who cant afford it or are too Ignorant to get an Insurance there with, IMHO the latter being the bigger Problem thus maybe creating the need to make it mandatory like here.

Our Hospitals offer better Service than anything I have ever seen outside Switzerland and I am pretty sure US Healthcare is the best money can buy
.
The fact that most medicine gets developed there speaks for itself.
(https://media.xconomy.com/wordpress/wp-content/images/2014/09/06183528/Table.png)
And this is something the entire world benefits from and unfortunately until we are not is some Star Trek like post scarcity world it has to be payed for by someone.

People painting the US or Swiss Healthcare system as some kind of Hellscape ignore this in such an incredibly dishonest manner to, my guess, further their own Political views, and not have a constructive discussion about it the same way certain people just cant talk about this pandemic without trying to further their own political goals and playing the blame game.
Yes, some people get left behind but is the alternative really better overall? Definetly not for the ones working in the sector and especially not for Innovation.

To wrap things up... until I see a better, more productive alternative I rather get ill here than to wait for months on treatment or sitting in an overcrowded hospital with poorly payed and overworked personal.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 19, 2020, 02:09:43 pm
JAMA Interview with T. Fauci from yesterday

https://youtu.be/EXY76TKNy2Y (https://youtu.be/EXY76TKNy2Y)

From the description:
Topics discussed in this interview:

Have you ever seen anything like this? (0:22)

Can we channel the current level of panic in the US to help mitigate this crisis? How can younger individuals contribute during this public health crisis. (2:30)

Sensitivity of testing. Is there any new data? (6:24)

NSAIDs (non steroidal anti inflammatory drugs)  - should they be avoided? (8:37)

ACE and ARBs (10:25)

Any new information on children? (14:13)

Respiratory spread versus droplets. Are there concerns about the viability of the virus on surfaces and packages? (15:11)

Hydroxychloroquine (17:43)

Recommendations for health care workers (18:48)

For the health care work that tests positive, when are they able to return to work? (21:08)

Any emerging data about Antivirals (22:22)

What should the next 2-3 weeks tell us? (24:11)

Health equity - will supplies be equally distributed? (27:00)

Is there anything more that local, state, and federal governments must do? (28:27)

Coronavirus Resource page from the JAMA Network: https://ja.ma/covidyt
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 19, 2020, 02:10:17 pm
Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.


    That's not true, you can compare that but you need to allow for the local conditions in each area and account for them separately.  The US and Canada for example had no fighting on their own soil so the civilian populations were largely unaffected by the war so it's easy to see the statistics there for healthy people vs unhealthy people (civilians) that were trapped in a war zone (such as in Belgium).  There were also a number of neutral countries that had healthy populations.  One of the big factors in the death rates was the density of people in some areas due to the war. In the US some of the hardest hit areas were the army training camps in Kansas, yet they had unquestionably the best fed and healthiest men in the entire country.  The densely packed front lines and military bases in Europe were also hit hard, as were all of the large cities world wide. Again you can look at the rates for rural Texas and for the large densely packed army bases that were in Kansas and you can clearly see the differences.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 19, 2020, 02:16:41 pm
Our [Swiss] Hospitals offer better Service than anything I have ever seen outside Switzerland and I am pretty sure US Healthcare is the best money can buy
.
...I rather get ill here than to wait for months on treatment or sitting in an overcrowded hospital with poorly payed and overworked personal.

So which is it, Swiss hospitals are the best, or overcrowded with "poorly payed and overworked personal"? You claim that people are making points for politics sake, yet you contradict yourself - which tends to be the mark of someone arguing from conviction rather than from fact i.e. politically.

Anyway, this whole fuss about the US healthcare system arose from a very minor point about flu vaccination. Let's all please keep to the topic at hand and not get sidetracked further. Yes, it is inevitable that political issues come up in a discussion about a world-wide epidemic and various countries response to that but let's try and keep the mindless, divisive side-taking out of it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 02:33:33 pm
"Our country is burning down but yours is burning down more!"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:04:52 pm
Look at South Korea, Hong Kong and Vietnnam.

The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.

Good like in thinking that with extensive testing the number of asymptomatics will drive down the mortality. Yes, it will, but by a point or two - you will still end up with a figure ten times more deadly than the ordinary flu. If anything, this is comparable to the Spanish (or should I call it Kansas?) flu. The big difference being that we have the same mortality with 21st century technology.

What to do is shown by the countries above.
Lockdown, early testing, isolation, disinfection.
Convert industries to produce masks and respirators (there is money to be done there, if you are a capitalist) - they did it in China, South Korea, Japan, and now Italy and the US (with the Defense Act)

But most importantly, learn some math (even basic math) and stop playing this down.
Testing is only a small part of the puzzle and due to the incubation time and non symptomatic patients it's unlikely to be the silver bullet. Important differences between Italy and South Korea are that Italy has an unusually old population and South Korea a young one. We've all seen the statistics how age impacts susceptibility. Another factor may be that Italians are heavy smokers whereas only a small percentage of South Koreans smoke.

Statistics are easy to misread, especially when you're in a panic. Add a sizeable serving of confirmation bias and it's a dangerous recipe when not handled with care. We need to carefully look at the statistics we see you use and post so little as that's the only thing that can get us out of this situation.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 19, 2020, 03:05:41 pm
The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.
Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style). Look for local environmental issues. Many of the people who died of SARS in HK lived in one corner of one tower, due to a broken sewer pipe that was letting the infection spread in that spot. The cruise ships had so much trouble with coronavirus, because they didn't learn from this, and missed how much central air cons would make things worse if people were trapped in their cabins. Some people saw that coming, but were ignored.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 19, 2020, 03:06:44 pm
Another factor may be that Italians are heavy smokers whereas only a small percentage of South Koreans smoke.
I guess you haven't been to South Korea.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 03:09:48 pm
I guess you haven't been to South Korea.
I'm trying to find the numbers I refer to but I'm now seeing different numbers. I may be mistaken there. The age groups are definitely distributed differently in both countries. Italy has almost twice as many people over 65.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_structure
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 19, 2020, 03:16:54 pm
The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.
Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style).

Yup.
Unfortunately, we have taken a completely different approach in most of Europe (although apparently Germany has managed to do a lot more testing than the others.)
It was even defended for a while that generalized testing was useless. Guess what - we just didn't have enough test kits anyway and no capacity in the short term to have more, so the rationale was convenient. Sad stuff.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 19, 2020, 03:38:20 pm
Coming from a govt agency, it is estimated that 6300 deaths can be attributed to flu in the 2018-2019 period in Spain. Covid toll seems above 600 now.
The difference is that the press said nothing last year, and the previous, and ....

The previson of deaths to a year is about 300.000 .  More o less the number of deaths of the last Civil War(Counting the KIA's , civil deaths and the represion by boths factions). Furthermore, about 15-20% shrink of gross domestic product, like a country in conflict.

Source: Roberto Centeno
http://www.alertadigital.com/2020/03/19/el-economista-roberto-centeno-calcula-que-el-coronavirus-terminara-provocando-en-espana-300-000-muertos-y-30-millones-de-infectados/ (http://www.alertadigital.com/2020/03/19/el-economista-roberto-centeno-calcula-que-el-coronavirus-terminara-provocando-en-espana-300-000-muertos-y-30-millones-de-infectados/).

Program  17/03/2020 "La voz de Cesar Vidal- En la economia que se fue"

https://youtu.be/JpJZKPzG9DQ (https://youtu.be/JpJZKPzG9DQ)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 19, 2020, 03:57:23 pm
Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.


    That's not true, you can compare that but you need to allow for the local conditions in each area and account for them separately.  The US and Canada for example had no fighting on their own soil so the civilian populations were largely unaffected by the war so it's easy to see the statistics there for healthy people vs unhealthy people (civilians) that were trapped in a war zone (such as in Belgium).  There were also a number of neutral countries that had healthy populations.  One of the big factors in the death rates was the density of people in some areas due to the war. In the US some of the hardest hit areas were the army training camps in Kansas, yet they had unquestionably the best fed and healthiest men in the entire country.  The densely packed front lines and military bases in Europe were also hit hard, as were all of the large cities world wide. Again you can look at the rates for rural Texas and for the large densely packed army bases that were in Kansas and you can clearly see the differences.
Yes, I think you have a point there. The Spanish flu also seemed had a proportionally higher mortality rate in young healthy adults, than covid and other viruses, because the strong immune response also damaged healthy cells.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 04:04:11 pm
But most importantly, learn some math (even basic math) and stop playing this down.


I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed. At that point I can't afford to go to the doctor if I have a medical problem and neither will many other people. Emergency rooms cannot refuse treatment but they will be flooded with people and even though they can't refuse treatment, they can still send you a huge bill that will go to collections. If enough dominoes start crashing down clinics will start closing, research labs will shut down, manufactures producing all kinds of goods will close, imports of critical supplies and materials will stop, people will not be able to get food, medicine, shelter, electricity, heat or other essentials and people will die. If you're not familiar with the Great Depression of the 1930s you should look it up because the effects were catastrophic and lasted many years, it took a massive world war to pull the US out of that slump. It seems to me that you are advocating panic to the extent that we just shut everything down indefinitely regardless of the impacts and completely ignoring the fact that doing that could easily lead to huge numbers of deaths. Like I said already, if you don't prioritize keep flying the plane (keep the economy going) then it will crash and all the passengers will die, making your heroic efforts to solve the problem at hand irrelevant.

An interesting article I came across discussing the current state of things:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 04:41:55 pm
I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed. At that point I can't afford to go to the doctor if I have a medical problem and neither will many other people. Emergency rooms cannot refuse treatment but they will be flooded with people and even though they can't refuse treatment, they can still send you a huge bill that will go to collections. If enough dominoes start crashing down clinics will start closing, research labs will shut down, manufactures producing all kinds of goods will close, imports of critical supplies and materials will stop, people will not be able to get food, medicine, shelter, electricity, heat or other essentials and people will die. If you're not familiar with the Great Depression of the 1930s you should look it up because the effects were catastrophic and lasted many years, it took a massive world war to pull the US out of that slump. It seems to me that you are advocating panic to the extent that we just shut everything down indefinitely regardless of the impacts and completely ignoring the fact that doing that could easily lead to huge numbers of deaths. Like I said already, if you don't prioritize keep flying the plane (keep the economy going) then it will crash and all the passengers will die, making your heroic efforts to solve the problem at hand irrelevant.

An interesting article I came across discussing the current state of things:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)
Without wanting to start a political debate about the merits of various systems the various degrees of social welfare in Europe will likely blunt that issue. No country has infinite resources but people getting by while and until the world recovers and they do too eliminates a lot of unnecessary hurt. Cooperation will also go a long way as countries aren't hit equally hard simultaneously so resources can likely be diverted and pooled. As long as food is being produced and basic necessities are met a secondary catastrophe is averted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 19, 2020, 04:57:30 pm
I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed.
If the economy crashes everyone is screwed. No economy == no food, heat and other essentials for most of us, however much money we might have. That's why isolation measures can only be pushed so far.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tinhead on March 19, 2020, 05:08:01 pm
No country has infinite resources

normally i would say "no, US can print as many Dollars as they wish", but now with Covid-19 they will have soon no paper anymore, or toilet paper will be more worth than Dollar ^^  that means i agree with you, this time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 05:26:13 pm
I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed.
If the economy crashes everyone is screwed. No economy == no food, heat and other essentials for most of us, however much money we might have. That's why isolation measures can only be pushed so far.

That is essentially what I was getting at, it's not just me that is screwed but everybody. The #1 priority needs to be keep the economy going because if that all comes crashing down then everything else is moot.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 05:28:08 pm
Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style).
As a westerner, my own appreciation of Chinese efforts is about exactly that.  I've not talked about anything else, only considered the (forced) isolation efforts.  It is increasingly looking like those efforts are what is needed to minimize both human lives lost, but also the financial impact, of this pandemic.
(In particular, I have not considered what happened in Nov/Dec 2019, with early whistleblowers, et cetera.)

Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.

The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing, but considering there are Finnish companies exporting millions of these tests, and while the testing stations need trained people to run the tests, we have had weeks to crash-course a few dozen specialists to help with that.. we just have chosen not to, because our leaders have more important things on their mind than a pandemic.  >:(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sal Ammoniac on March 19, 2020, 05:45:24 pm
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.

The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 19, 2020, 05:48:20 pm
Yesterday I had a billing concern with my ISP Optus so I rang them to rectify their error and was confronted with a recorded message stating that due to the Covid 19 virus they were unable to assist with my enquiry.   :o

Optus are completely useless at the best of times and now it's even worse, I didn't think that was even possible. The message just directs customers to use a mobile phone application or to send them an email message.   ::)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 05:52:09 pm
Has anyone seen statistics on the average duration from infection or onset of symptoms till death, for those perished due to the virus?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 19, 2020, 05:54:09 pm
That is essentially what I was getting at, it's not just me that is screwed but everybody. The #1 priority needs to be keep the economy going because if that all comes crashing down then everything else is moot.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf)

Yeah, I don't believe that.  The US is a rich country, and even if the economy were completely shut down for a month, we could afford it.  What we don't have is a lot of excess healthcare capacity.  Even if CV was no worse than flu, we can't handle a whole year's worth of sick people and deaths compressed into a month.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 19, 2020, 05:55:18 pm
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.

The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.

Yep.
I'm surprised it's still authorized to gather like this over there. Over here, it's not, and if you do, you're pretty likely to get fined.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 19, 2020, 06:10:08 pm
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.

The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.

That's over:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-comes-spring-break-locals-close-florida-beaches-after-governor-n1163741 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-comes-spring-break-locals-close-florida-beaches-after-governor-n1163741)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 06:10:42 pm
I just went shopping and here it looks like the hoarding craze is dying down. Some shelves still were emptier than usual but everything looked a lot more normal. I asked staff and they confirmed things were a lot less hectic than they have been. It seems supply is picking up and demand is dying down.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 19, 2020, 06:11:33 pm
Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style).
As a westerner, my own appreciation of Chinese efforts is about exactly that.  I've not talked about anything else, only considered the (forced) isolation efforts.  It is increasingly looking like those efforts are what is needed to minimize both human lives lost, but also the financial impact, of this pandemic.
(In particular, I have not considered what happened in Nov/Dec 2019, with early whistleblowers, et cetera.)

Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.

The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing, but considering there are Finnish companies exporting millions of these tests, and while the testing stations need trained people to run the tests, we have had weeks to crash-course a few dozen specialists to help with that.. we just have chosen not to, because our leaders have more important things on their mind than a pandemic.  >:(

You have declared  Emergency Powers Act superlight compared with ours,what it seem a light martial law.  Because ,we are totally banned to stay in the street without any reason. Only we are allowed to go to buy or work, and another exceptions duly justified.
haven't you fines and charges? Because our fines are 200€-600,000€ and 1 or 2 years of jail.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 19, 2020, 06:14:18 pm
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.

The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.
College used to be for the smart or wealthy. Now they'll lend a fortune to any idiot and they're suddenly a student.  ;) The attitude you describe is exactly like the parents of unvaccinated kids who get angry when schools won't accept them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 06:20:14 pm
Haven't you fines and charges? Because our fines are 200€-600,000€ and 1 or 2 years of jail.
Nope.  We even have lots of elder folks, who are saying that they refuse to stay indoors; if they get the virus, then they get the virus.  They trust the Finnish health system to take care of them, they say.

Other people think that because they themselves are unlikely to die from the virus, they can ignore the situation.  It just does not matter to some people that they will be spreading the virus.  Perhaps some of them don't realize it, but definitely some just do not care.  This is why I liked the "heavy-handed" approach: it stops the stupid from peeing into the pool, so to speak.

As I asked above, I'm wondering about the statistics on the duration from infection to death.  It seems to me that this is a critical factor in the health system overload, but I haven't seen actual numbers yet.  If anybody knows or has seen 'em, please let me know.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 06:22:35 pm
That is essentially what I was getting at, it's not just me that is screwed but everybody. The #1 priority needs to be keep the economy going because if that all comes crashing down then everything else is moot.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf)

Yeah, I don't believe that.  The US is a rich country, and even if the economy were completely shut down for a month, we could afford it.  What we don't have is a lot of excess healthcare capacity.  Even if CV was no worse than flu, we can't handle a whole year's worth of sick people and deaths compressed into a month.


Don't be so sure. The dot com bust and the recession in 2008 were devastating and took years to recover from, this could lead into another Great Depression which took a major world war to break out of. Numerous businesses around me have already laid off large numbers of people, the dominoes are falling and it may be impossible to stop. We may be a wealthy country but millions of people live paycheck to paycheck and everything is intertwined. One thing goes down and that starts pulling other things down, we have seen the same on a rare few occasions with the power grid resulting in massive blackouts. The whole thing is a house of cards that is quite fragile. We are not immune to a catastrophic collapse.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 06:23:48 pm
The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing,
The same over here but what does testing lots of people actually accomplish right now? Nothing because in the end you can't catch all cases if you are not going to test everyone in a country. The point where mass-testing serves a purpose (containment) is far behind us.

In the Netherlands they are going to test blood and plasma (past and future donations) from donors for Corona anti-bodies to get solid numbers on how many people have been infected in total. From there they can get some solid data on how many people got infected and from where the infection has spread.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 06:25:39 pm
I just went shopping and here it looks like the hoarding craze is dying down. Some shelves still were emptier than usual but everything looked a lot more normal. I asked staff and they confirmed things were a lot less hectic than they have been. It seems supply is picking up and demand is dying down.

Control loop theory applies. The system experienced a massive step change that it was not tuned to cope with. Now it will likely overshoot and oscillate a bit for some time then settle down.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 19, 2020, 06:29:43 pm
The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing,
The same over here but what does testing lots of people actually accomplish right now? Nothing because in the end you can't catch all cases if you are not going to test everyone in a country. The point where mass-testing serves a purpose (containment) is far behind us.

Maybe it's too late for this now, but every country that did mass-testing early are a lot better off by now than the others.

As to the current situation, we could still use testing as a mitigating step to reduce confinement. Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 19, 2020, 06:43:14 pm
No country has infinite resources

normally i would say "no, US can print as many Dollars as they wish", but now with Covid-19 they will have soon no paper anymore, or toilet paper will be more worth than Dollar ^^  that means i agree with you, this time.

That reinforces a statement I made the other day....  If the economy keeps crashing like this, we (literally) will start to see a regression back to a barter-related economy...  (in Russia, my ex-wife tells me that already is common in the more rural areas, long before this zombie apocalypse even started)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 19, 2020, 06:45:47 pm
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.

The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.

I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday.  So what did the damn kids do?  They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there....  (it's about a 90 mile drive away)  SMH.  These damn kids just refuse to "get it."  Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 19, 2020, 06:49:30 pm
That reinforces a statement I made the other day....  If the economy keeps crashing like this, we (literally) will start to see a regression back to a barter-related economy...  (in Russia, my ex-wife tells me that already is common in the more rural areas, long before this zombie apocalypse even started)

That makes no sense to me.  You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation.  There's no sign of either of those happening.

Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering.  Too much personal contact.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 06:49:37 pm
I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday.  So what did the damn kids do?  They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there....  (it's about a 90 mile drive away)  SMH.  These damn kids just refuse to "get it."  Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.

What else would you expect kids to do? Were you never an invincible teenager yourself? I don't think it's reasonable to expect kids to "get it", and most of them are probably right in that the vast majority won't get very ill and of those who get ill very few will die. The part they are not considering is the risk of spreading it to others who are more vulnerable but it's probably best to stay away from the kids rather than expect them to greatly alter their behavior.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 06:50:55 pm
The same over here but what does testing lots of people actually accomplish right now? Nothing because in the end you can't catch all cases if you are not going to test everyone in a country. The point where mass-testing serves a purpose (containment) is far behind us.
Nope.  In Finland, Helsinki region is worst hit; basically everywhere else is fine.

The problem in Helsinki is that due to a number of reasons, the social pressure is weakest here, and people are not following the social isolation recommendations.

If we did test, we would have the numbers to show the stupid ones that they too have to isolate.  Over half of the Finnish cases are in the Greater Helsinki region (Helsinki-Vantaa-Espoo), with about 1.2 million people.

Instead, our "official" figures are something like 400, whereas looking at the curve (https://korona.kans.io/), you can trivially extrapolate the correct number to be around 800 -- on the order of Canada; Finland and Canada tracked very closely till Mar 14, when testing was essentially stopped in Helsinki region in Finland.

The numbers would help officials and people realize the importance of social distancing.  Alternatively, the officials could just fake the numbers to achieve the same.  As it stands, everyone is going based on their "gut feeling" instead, and too many here feel that it Is Somebody Elses Problem for now.

Do remember, that from infection, a person will start spreading the virus within 6 hours to a day and a half, whereas it takes about five days on average for the symptoms.  So, a lot of people who believe, erroneously, that they are healthy, are spreading the virus.  It is those that we need to stop and isolate.  The ones who are already ill, well, people naturally tend to avoid those; it's the healthy-looking virus spreaders that are doing the damage right now.
Testing, even random testing to find out the actual number of infected, would help make that visible, and help enforce harder isolation rules and penalties, as the true extent of the problem would be undeniable.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 06:52:54 pm
That makes no sense to me.  You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation.  There's no sign of either of those happening.

Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering.  Too much personal contact.

I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 19, 2020, 06:53:30 pm
And in South Florida right now:

Temporary hospitals are being built...

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/19/supplies-arrive-to-build-mobile-hospital-at-fort-lauderdale-executive-airport/ (https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/19/supplies-arrive-to-build-mobile-hospital-at-fort-lauderdale-executive-airport/)


The location is literally 2 blocks from where I work (or at least used to, before we all migrated to work from home)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 06:53:41 pm
Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.
Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wimberleytech on March 19, 2020, 06:54:54 pm
Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.


Absolutely!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 06:56:17 pm
I'm skeptical of the efficacy of testing. Say you get tested, then on the way out of the clinic or on your way home you pick up the virus. A day or so later, however long the test results take you are notified that you are negative so you go out and interact with others except you are not actually negative because you picked up the virus after being tested and now you have a false sense of security from the negative test. Perhaps I'm overlooking something though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 19, 2020, 06:56:55 pm
Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.
Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.

Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams...   :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 19, 2020, 06:57:08 pm
..
I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday.  So what did the damn kids do?  They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there....  (it's about a 90 mile drive away)  SMH.  These damn kids just refuse to "get it."  Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.
Why do kids feel immortal:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-food/201008/why-do-teenagers-feel-immortal (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-food/201008/why-do-teenagers-feel-immortal)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 06:59:34 pm
I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.
This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 07:00:07 pm
I'm skeptical of the efficacy of testing. Say you get tested, then on the way out of the clinic or on your way home you pick up the virus. A day or so later, however long the test results take you are notified that you are negative so you go out and interact with others except you are not actually negative because you picked up the virus after being tested and now you have a false sense of security from the negative test. Perhaps I'm overlooking something though.
In Finland, the problem is that lack of testing hides the problem.

The same kind of problem occurred over a decade ago, when certain older lady politicians get fed up with street prostitution.  Certain laws were put in place, and now there is very little street prostitution in Helsinki.  What you do have, however, is lots more human trafficing, especially for prostitution; slavery and so on.
But, since it is hidden, and not in-your-face, these older lady politicians are happy and not annoyed anymore, so they consider it a very good win.

See?  It is not to help people feel safe, but to realize they are not; that they can be virus spreaders even if they feel perfectly healthy.

It is a completely different thing for even a respected doctor to say that although Finland is supposed to only have 400 cases, the true number is likely an order of magnitude higher, and actually having those bigger numbers from testing, when the problem is that most people don't think the situation is serious enough for them to behave any different.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 19, 2020, 07:03:56 pm
..
I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday.  So what did the damn kids do?  They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there....  (it's about a 90 mile drive away)  SMH.  These damn kids just refuse to "get it."  Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.
Why do kids feel immortal:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-food/201008/why-do-teenagers-feel-immortal (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-food/201008/why-do-teenagers-feel-immortal)
I think it must be a bit more complex than that. Some people are pretty careless in their youth, but many of us grow up with a deep sense of our own vulnerability.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wimberleytech on March 19, 2020, 07:09:21 pm
That makes no sense to me.  You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation.  There's no sign of either of those happening.

Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering.  Too much personal contact.

I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.

I live in a small rural town in Texas (near a high-tech metropolis).  People are acting reasonably sane.  Yeah, some items at the store are cleaned out, but when you go to an establishment you do not sense any panic.

I am still trying to get my head around this meltdown.  Was an unbeliever at first.  Trying to come around to believing this is as big of a threat as advertised, but it is hard...just looking at the numbers.  The spreading factor of covid19 appears to be pretty much in line with the flu.  The mortality appears to tilt heavily to the older population (like me!!) but even then it seems to be those with underlying conditions.  Mortality rate...we need more data.

I have looked at the data for the Princess Cruise ship.  Only 1% of the infected died.  Not everybody on the ship got infected.  That is certainly more than the common flu would have caused but it is not crazy big.

It is an election year here in the US.  I suspect that fact causes some unnatural behavior.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 19, 2020, 07:09:36 pm
Don't be so sure. The dot com bust and the recession in 2008 were devastating and took years to recover from, this could lead into another Great Depression which took a major world war to break out of.
They were still largely on the gold standard by then.

Of course in a way the Euro is a second gold standard, crippling the way European countries can respond to deflationary pressure. This is going to be hard on the Eurozone and perhaps the Danish Krone.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 07:10:54 pm
I think it must be a big more complex than that. Some people are pretty careless in their youth, but many of us grow up with a deep sense of our own vulnerability.
Our advancing understanding of biology makes it abundantly clear that teen brains may seem fully operational but are far from in specific and critical areas. It seems a very large part of youthful carelessness may be attributed to this. We're still figuring out what this means for how we deal with their behaviour, which includes crime.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 19, 2020, 07:13:00 pm
This issue of the millennials not respecting the restrictions is an interesting one. I personally do not have the data to evaluate how widespread the lack of adherence to the restrictions is and whether it is clearly an age-related factor. As everyone knows, the most spectacular violations get the most publicity and frequency data is elusive.

I don't much care for the #BoomerRemover mentality although the millenials that I have known best, including the ones who have worked for me, are all very fine people, morally and ethically - including a strong work ethic.

They have taught me much and I personally respect their passion for environmental concerns.

Patient compliance turns to public compliance in a pandemic.

In the JAMA interview that Fauci gave yesterday (I linked to it earlier), there was a distinct appeal to "Social Conscience".  I am interested in seeing whether this will "take" so to speak...for everyone, but particularly millenials.
 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 07:14:35 pm
I live in a small rural town in Texas (near a high-tech metropolis).  People are acting reasonably sane.  Yeah, some items at the store are cleaned out, but when you go to an establishment you do not sense any panic.

I am still trying to get my head around this meltdown.  Was an unbeliever at first.  Trying to come around to believing this is as big of a threat as advertised, but it is hard...just looking at the numbers.  The spreading factor of covid19 appears to be pretty much in line with the flu.  The mortality appears to tilt heavily to the older population (like me!!) but even then it seems to be those with underlying conditions.  Mortality rate...we need more data.

I have looked at the data for the Princess Cruise ship.  Only 1% of the infected died.  Not everybody on the ship got infected.  That is certainly more than the common flu would have caused but it is not crazy big.

It is an election year here in the US.  I suspect that fact causes some unnatural behavior.
Considering large parts of the world are only casually interested in the US elections I don't think the response is related. Internally within the US some of the response does seem shaped by the coming election. Though even the election may be postponed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wimberleytech on March 19, 2020, 07:24:06 pm

Considering large parts of the world are only casually interested in the US elections I don't think the response is related. Internally within the US some of the response does seem shaped by the coming election. Though even the election may be postponed.

Granted.  But my point was directed to what is going on in the US in both media and politics.  Politicians are penalized more for under-reacting, so naturally, they will martial forces for the worst-case scenario.  Media reports, people panic, more over-reaction, etc (zero phase margin!).  To the extent that the US has a tincture of impact on the rest of the world, others are effected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 19, 2020, 07:35:54 pm

It is a completely different thing for even a respected doctor to say that although Finland is supposed to only have 400 cases, the true number is likely an order of magnitude higher, and actually having those bigger numbers from testing, when the problem is that most people don't think the situation is serious enough for them to behave any different.
I think anyone following news around here has seen the THL (Local "CDC") estimates that the number of real cases is 20-30 times higher than tested.
Latest info was that they run about 1000 tests per 5 million people daily  but its mostly for healthcare workers.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 07:38:53 pm
Granted.  But my point was directed to what is going on in the US in both media and politics.  Politicians are penalized more for under-reacting, so naturally, they will martial forces for the worst-case scenario.  Media reports, people panic, more over-reaction, etc (zero phase margin!).  To the extent that the US has a tincture of impact on the rest of the world, others are effected.
This tendency to polarize and move towards the extremes while eliminating the middle ground has long been an issue in politics. Unfortunately US politics seem to suffer considerably from this. Pandering to people's fear is much easier than nuance and the risk of getting it wrong sooner or later is one most politicians are unwilling to take even if it's better for society. Alarmist rationales are rarely punished because it makes you look like you both care and act. The video below gives some interesting insights into the process of polarization.

https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 07:39:10 pm
absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Do you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.

patient one in Codogno, Northern Italy, was 38 healthy and fit (he was a runner and an amateur football player)
he had to stay in ICU for a couple of weeks

many other stories like that here (yesterday a 29 years old athlete) with more than 40 thousand positive cases
lots of not so old medical staff are dying too
please stop spreading misinformation as that will encourage people to spread the disease too

for instance refer to this https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html):
Quote
Researchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.

Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 19, 2020, 07:41:22 pm
Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.
Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.

Which is included in what I just said. I agree this should be priority of course, but then that could be extended to as many people as possible.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 07:42:21 pm
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.
Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

you can't see what is clearly there if you refuse to see it
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 19, 2020, 07:55:00 pm
I have 40 and 50 somethings at work not taking it seriously. On our shop floor people are mingling as usual even though no one needs to be within 2 meters of each other during normal work. Group visits to the toilets like a bunch of girls. Management are hopeless and too slow to react - after taking their heads out of the sand.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 07:56:27 pm
patient one in Codogno, Northern Italy, was 38 healthy and fit (he was a runner and an amateur football player)
he had to stay in ICU for a couple of weeks

many other stories like that here (yesterday a 29 years old athlete) with more than 40 thousand positive cases
lots of not so old medical staff are dying too
please stop spreading misinformation as that will encourage people to spread the disease too

for instance refer to this https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html):
Quote
Researchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.

Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.
You're severely misrepresenting my statements. I responded to a statement that a large proportion of young people need serious treatment. They don't, with some exceptions also discussed. People older than 60-70 years old represent the overwhelming majority of serious case requiring treatment. This in no way encourages behaviour which spreads the virus. One must be an unprecedented idiot to think you don't need to take precautions if you are unlikely to get seriously ill. This simply doesn't follow from the facts we established. Carelessness kills people even if it's not you. We all play a role in preventing spread.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 07:57:21 pm
The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn ....
You are wrong. Spain haven't yet learnt any. Spain is giving of stick of blind.

Spanish situation is not so deeply covered by the newspapers here, so I may have got a wrong feeling of the real situation (although I found quite hard to grasp the meaning of what you wrote)

the main problems here are:
- supply of essential protection devices is lacking (here and all over the world)
- too many idiots have not realized yet the real danger of the situation and do not abide by the quarantine rules so the infection rate is not decreasing as fast as it could

stay at home as much as you can, get out as little as you can
if you get out: stay as far as possible from other people, protect your mouth and nose, don't touch your eyes and wash accurately your hands and face as soon as you get back at home
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 19, 2020, 07:59:49 pm
That makes no sense to me.  You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation.  There's no sign of either of those happening.

Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering.  Too much personal contact.

I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.

I live in a small rural town in Texas (near a high-tech metropolis).  People are acting reasonably sane.  Yeah, some items at the store are cleaned out, but when you go to an establishment you do not sense any panic.

I am still trying to get my head around this meltdown.  Was an unbeliever at first.  Trying to come around to believing this is as big of a threat as advertised, but it is hard...just looking at the numbers.  The spreading factor of covid19 appears to be pretty much in line with the flu.  The mortality appears to tilt heavily to the older population (like me!!) but even then it seems to be those with underlying conditions.  Mortality rate...we need more data.

I have looked at the data for the Princess Cruise ship.  Only 1% of the infected died.  Not everybody on the ship got infected.  That is certainly more than the common flu would have caused but it is not crazy big.

It is an election year here in the US.  I suspect that fact causes some unnatural behavior.
It doesn't have to be crazily worse than the flu.

I believe the death rate is a bit higher than flu and it's slightly more contagious. The spread of viruses typically follows a logistic function and most places are still in the exponential growth phase of the virus, so slightly reducing transmission rates will drastically reduce the peak, hopefully to a point where the health system can cope. The problem is we don't know enough yet. In the long term, the only way to reduce the number of people who are going to get this is to develop a vaccine.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 08:01:03 pm
you can't see what is clearly there if you refuse to see it
The only thing I clearly see is the distinct lack of sources. It's remarkable how alarmist tendencies seem inversely proportional to the amount of sources posted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 08:02:38 pm
[...]
I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.

you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure

flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wimberleytech on March 19, 2020, 08:04:11 pm
Granted.  But my point was directed to what is going on in the US in both media and politics.  Politicians are penalized more for under-reacting, so naturally, they will martial forces for the worst-case scenario.  Media reports, people panic, more over-reaction, etc (zero phase margin!).  To the extent that the US has a tincture of impact on the rest of the world, others are effected.
This tendency to polarize and move towards the extremes while eliminating the middle ground has long been an issue in politics. Unfortunately US politics seem to suffer considerably from this. Pandering to people's fear is much easier than nuance and the risk of getting it wrong sooner or later is one most politicians are unwilling to take even if it's better for society. Alarmist rationales are rarely punished because it makes you look like you both care and act. The video below gives some interesting insights into the process of polarization.

https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc
Yup!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 19, 2020, 08:09:39 pm
[...]
I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.

you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure

flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with
Yes and here's a good YouTube video about the mathematics of covid's growth, which I'm sure most people here will be familiar with but seem to need reminding of.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 08:11:03 pm
Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.

as I wrote many times, people have acquired immunity against flue, while COVID-19 is unknown to the immune system, besides that COVID-19 attaches to ACE2 receptors, affects blood pressure regulation and unlike flue may seriously damage your lungs (flue viruses generally do that indirectly by favoring other pathogens)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 19, 2020, 08:24:12 pm
you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure

flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with
Medical staff gets inoculated for flu every year with near compete coverage for those in contact with patients. From the CDC: "By occupation, flu vaccination coverage was highest among physicians (96.7%), nurses (98.1%), pharmacists (91.5%), and nurse practitioners and physician assistants (91.0%)".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 08:25:23 pm
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.

no the story is that people are putting their head under the sand and go on carelessly as ever

the longer you behave that way the longer the problem lasts
it is not a matter of being angry but of being rational
if all people would be able to refrain from careless and stupid behaviour the virus would get extinct within a month

unfortunately most people are just careless assholes and they do not care if they will make other people die, having their usual glass of beer at the pub is most important than somebody else's life

BTW go on like that and within a month death figures in your country will easily get above those of the flue
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 08:30:07 pm
[...]
I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.

you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure

flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with

Yes it does. I mentioned already that I knew somebody who died of the flu when they were 8 or 9, a friend of my brother. Jim Henson was a healthy 53 year old when the flu killed him. These are just two examples out of many, many thousands. You are drastically underestimating the impact of the flu while being overly alarmist about Covid. And since I know you are going to take this as me saying Covid is no worse than the flu, that isn't what I'm saying, but it's also not as drastically worse than the flu as you seem to think it is. You are caught up in the panic and thinking emotionally rather than rationally. Most people are going to recover just fine, at least from the virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 19, 2020, 08:35:57 pm
Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.
Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.

Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams...   :palm:

   And the politicians, and the movie stars! 

    You can tell where America's priorities lay.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 19, 2020, 08:38:37 pm
Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams...   :palm:

   And the politicians, and the movie stars! 

    You can tell where America's priorities lay.
Considering the number of European politicians who have tested positive, they might just be testing the right demographic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 08:39:24 pm
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.

no the story is that people are putting their head under the sand and go on carelessly as ever

the longer you behave that way the longer the problem lasts
it is not a matter of being angry but of being rational
if all people would be able to refrain from careless and stupid behaviour the virus would get extinct within a month

unfortunately most people are just careless assholes and they do not care if they will make other people die, having their usual glass of beer at the pub is most important than somebody else's life

BTW go on like that and within a month death figures in your country will easily get above those of the flue

People being alarmist and overreacting is precisely what causes others to blow them off as being caught up in panic and behaving carelessly. We have to be rational, stay calm and take reasonable precautions. Fear and panic causes irrational behavior that makes things worse. If everyone were calm and level headed we could take action and not have this polarization between absolute panic and total disregard. The sensible middle ground is drowned out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 19, 2020, 08:39:57 pm
That reinforces a statement I made the other day....  If the economy keeps crashing like this, we (literally) will start to see a regression back to a barter-related economy...  (in Russia, my ex-wife tells me that already is common in the more rural areas, long before this zombie apocalypse even started)

That makes no sense to me.  You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation.  There's no sign of either of those happening.

Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering.  Too much personal contact.

   Exactly. I'm doing as much as I can through PayPal so that don't even have to show them a credit card.  Running and drawing all of their cash out of their banks is a typical ill-prepared non-prepper reaction to any emergency.  This time though, cash might be seen as a threat and not as a form of payment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 08:41:13 pm
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 19, 2020, 08:43:42 pm
Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams...   :palm:

   And the politicians, and the movie stars! 

    You can tell where America's priorities lay.
Considering the number of European politicians who have tested positive, they might just be testing the right demographic.

EU chief Brexit negotiator tested positive. Now, try to track down with whom he was in contact :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 08:52:15 pm
Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.

this will be a hard and necessary lesson for those enough smart to learn
this time it is COVID-19, next time might be another virus, or a meteorite crash, a nasty earthquake, a serious Carrington event and so on

having all the eggs in a basket (i.e. all the production in a country) is bad for the whole world, for China too
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 19, 2020, 08:57:18 pm
The UK curve, an almost perfect exponential curve of inaction!

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14)

They can't even be botherd to update that until 6pm but it always says 9am, that's public health england, hopeless morons.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 19, 2020, 09:01:37 pm
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.

   Come back in six months and then you can tell if the fear was irrational or not.  I'm pretty certain that you have never been through an empidemic and have no idea what it's like. I've been through one it's not something that should ever be treated lightly.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 19, 2020, 09:18:08 pm
Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams...   :palm:

   And the politicians, and the movie stars! 

    You can tell where America's priorities lay.
Considering the number of European politicians who have tested positive, they might just be testing the right demographic.

EU chief Brexit negotiator tested positive. Now, try to track down with whom he was in contact :)
It's hardly surprising those who travel most will disproportionally be infected. The next thing will be someone famous dying from it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 19, 2020, 09:18:39 pm
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
If you managed to stop ALL further infections in the US you would have peak number of cases about 2 weeks from now on. Peak number of deaths would probably occur 3-4weeks from now on.
You have about 10000 cases total today, in two weeks you are going at somewhere 500000 total cases assuming that the curfews placed so far work as hoped for. 50000 dead even if virus transmission stops today.

How long it took for Italy to go from 150 deaths total to 500 deaths per day?

Panic is yet to come, wait for may.   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 09:26:03 pm
I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.
This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it!

AFAIK that is mainly an US problem

here in Italy we'll soon get above China figures regarding total cases and deaths, but nobody is panicking, neither did in Asia
yes, lots of people are worried, sad for the loss of friends or relative, but there is no real panic

most people are still working, there is no lack of food, no empty shelves, nobody ever thought about buying weapons
here the only problem are some stupid people that do not abide by the quarantine rules

I think that you have a much more serious problem than COVID-19 virus there in the US
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 09:28:35 pm
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.

The only way to avoid this is to buy time through strict quarantine until there is a vaccine that works.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 19, 2020, 09:29:47 pm
In the Uk the peer to peer lender i use has has to pause withdrawals and update their site to incorporate a queing system. for cash withdrawal.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 19, 2020, 09:42:45 pm
Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 :phew:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 09:43:35 pm
patient one in Codogno, Northern Italy, was 38 healthy and fit (he was a runner and an amateur football player)
he had to stay in ICU for a couple of weeks

many other stories like that here (yesterday a 29 years old athlete) with more than 40 thousand positive cases
lots of not so old medical staff are dying too
please stop spreading misinformation as that will encourage people to spread the disease too

for instance refer to this https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html):
Quote
Researchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.

Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.
You're severely misrepresenting my statements. I responded to a statement that a large proportion of young people need serious treatment. They don't, with some exceptions also discussed. People older than 60-70 years old represent the overwhelming majority of serious case requiring treatment. This in no way encourages behaviour which spreads the virus. One must be an unprecedented idiot to think you don't need to take precautions if you are unlikely to get seriously ill. This simply doesn't follow from the facts we established. Carelessness kills people even if it's not you. We all play a role in preventing spread.

NO - you wrote:
Quote
    It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked.

and I replied:
Quote
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)

there is no reference to a proportion, no percentage
healthy and fit people are dying now
without ICU would die even more
THIS IS NOT FLUE

it is completely false that they are
Quote
almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness

I showed that even some kids did need ICU in China
I never said a huge proportion of kids
it is you who used the term "almost exclusively"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 09:45:13 pm
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.

The only way to avoid this is to buy time through strict quarantine until there is a vaccine that works.

I'm not sure where you get your numbers from (eg, 70% of people in the US will get infected), and of course you may be right. Of course nobody knows the future on this, and as an engineer I'm sure you're fully aware how difficult/impossible it is to predict the future of just about ANYTHING, so I suppose anything is possible. Anybody can predict anything about this and nobody can challenge it since there's no real data to support it. 

But in the US it seems like this week the entire country is shutting down. Most stores are closed, schools are closed at least until April, universities are only online, and it seems like everyone is doing what I referred to as "going overboard with rational precautions". It's a very good thing to be overly precautious at this point, IMO, and it makes the most sense IMO to assume it will have a big impact. Like it has in China apparently.

You might want to check the WHO daily updates and look at the actual numbers. Of course, take any numbers with a grain of salt since it's still very early, but my point was that if you take rational precautions now it's far better than choosing the fear approach, because fear causes folks to do stupid stuff like stock up on toilet paper.

IMO, if you look at the numbers, like an engineer, it helps to erase the fear and focus on the facts and taking intelligent precautions, realizing that time is of the essence since this stuff can spread exponentially, and fear just clouds your judgement.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 09:49:12 pm
I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use. For herd immunity a minimum infection of 60% is needed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 19, 2020, 09:49:50 pm
I'd say the main benefit of broad testing is you get big numbers early. That scares the shit out of the all the idiots and helps confining the spread.

On the merit of testing people that are asymptomatic and didn't have contact to someone known contagious: I don't think it makes much sense. There are not enough test kits and if you test negative, you'll catch the bug later and use up another test kit. It's better if everyone behaved as if they were already infected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 09:54:35 pm
I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.

Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 19, 2020, 09:55:08 pm
It's better if everyone behaved as if they were already infected.

That only works for people who live alone.  Within families you would really like to know what the deal is.  We need those instant home test kits people are working on.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 09:55:58 pm
It was even defended for a while that generalized testing was useless. Guess what - we just didn't have enough test kits anyway and no capacity in the short term to have more, so the rationale was convenient. Sad stuff.

generalized testing is useless
the first thing SK authorities did was contact tracking and focused testing

BTW test kits are themselves abundant (Italy recently produced and shipped half million of that to the US)

the problem is the logistic of testing itself, you need lots of people to take the tests and to analyze them
besides that they are not 100% reliable... there are always some false positives or negatives and people who are negative today may be infected tomorrow
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 09:59:10 pm
FWIW, here's an interesting video posted the other day analyzing the WHO statistics for the present status of the global COVID-19 situation. There's also a part 2 looking at the US in particular.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI6_yiUCYo4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI6_yiUCYo4)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 10:00:08 pm
I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.

Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS?
These virusses are more deadly, easier to spot so these literally kill themselves when contained.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 10:01:42 pm
wikipedia is regularly updating data on the pandemic

there is an obvious time lag between Italy and US (or other countries), but you can compare the increase rate both of new cases and deaths

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Timeline (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Timeline)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States#Timeline (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States#Timeline)

main article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 10:02:28 pm
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.

The only way to avoid this is to buy time through strict quarantine until there is a vaccine that works.

An effective vaccine could take a year or more, there is no way people will sit in their houses until then, if they even have a house to sit in. Again the economic impact is going to be catastrophic, the deaths will not be that big of a concern. Even if the numbers are huge, 0.1%-1% is still a small percentage and those will be heavily skewed toward people who are already old and in poor health. Many millions of those same people would die if they become homeless. I cannot understand how someone can be so worried about people getting sick directly and so apparently not worried at all about an economic catastrophe that could leave them homeless and starving.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 10:04:08 pm
I already addressed this early but what you are describing is mostly a third world and US problem.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 19, 2020, 10:08:35 pm
Well since I'm in the US I can't just dismiss that, but don't think for a moment that a catastrophic depression couldn't devastate other developed nations. We have a global economy with everything intertwined now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 10:13:24 pm
Well since I'm in the US I can't just dismiss that, but don't think for a moment that a catastrophic depression couldn't devastate other developed nations. We have a global economy with everything intertwined now.
The problem I see is that the large amount of poor people in the US will drag the country down. Both in virus infections and possibly even riots. For the US this can turn out to be the most perfect (worst) storm ever. The only light at the end of the tunnel for the US is that Poetin is such an a-hole otherwise Europe would be doing much more business with Russia and not need the US so much.

In Europe most countries have social security and are in better financial shape compared to the US. AFAIK even in this time of crisis the Netherlands gets a negative interest on loans. This makes it possible for the Dutch government to keep the entire country flush with money during this crisis so no jobs are lost.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 19, 2020, 10:22:58 pm
here is the story of Italian patient one, 38 years old and fit, not affected by any other disease... just like flue...

https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fmilano.corriere.it%2Fnotizie%2Fcronaca%2F20_marzo_19%2Fritorno-vita-mattia-paziente-uno-codogno-san-matteo-pavia-vedro-nascere-mia-bambina-b3d2265c-6a14-11ea-a8a1-df48c20e9d2e.shtml (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fmilano.corriere.it%2Fnotizie%2Fcronaca%2F20_marzo_19%2Fritorno-vita-mattia-paziente-uno-codogno-san-matteo-pavia-vedro-nascere-mia-bambina-b3d2265c-6a14-11ea-a8a1-df48c20e9d2e.shtml)

BTW it is almost one month and he's still at the hospital although he's likely to be released soon
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 10:25:47 pm
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 19, 2020, 10:29:04 pm
Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v1)

Quote
CONCLUSION People with blood group A have a significantly higher risk for acquiring COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups, whereas blood group O has a significantly lower risk for the infection compared with non-O blood groups.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 19, 2020, 10:36:50 pm
BTW, the abbreviation for influenza is flu. A flue (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flue) is an opening or a pipe or a duct in a chimney.
We who do mostly read and write English (as opposed to speaking and listening to it) find it hard to keep up when we must sound out the words in our mind.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 19, 2020, 10:37:28 pm
Summit (200 petaFLOPS) used to identify existing compounds with SARS-CoV-2 relevant sites (small-molecules which bind to either the isolated Viral S-protein at its host receptor region or to the S protein-human ACE2 interface).

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/Repurposing_Therapeutics_for_the_Wuhan_Coronavirus_nCov-2019_Supercomputer-Based_Docking_to_the_Viral_S_Protein_and_Human_ACE2_Interface/11871402/4 (https://chemrxiv.org/articles/Repurposing_Therapeutics_for_the_Wuhan_Coronavirus_nCov-2019_Supercomputer-Based_Docking_to_the_Viral_S_Protein_and_Human_ACE2_Interface/11871402/4)

Article PDF and and associated files are available.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 10:41:57 pm
FWIW, I found a news article from last month on what happened to SARS and what might happen to COVID-19:

"John Nicholls, clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said the SARS outbreak was brought to an end in July 2003 by good hygiene practices -- such as frequent hand-washing -- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."

"That will be the same for this one," he said. "My feeling is that this is just going to be like SARS and the world is going to get basically a very bad cold for about five months."

Of course, I'm sure in the medical community there are many varied opinions on this, and since I have zero medical experience I can't comment, but at least it seems reasonable to consider that maybe this will go the way of the other coronaviruses and just die out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 10:45:48 pm
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.
Perhaps you should figure out the medical details first BEFORE reaching a conclusion. You can't just say one Corona virus is like the other. It is like saying all Glycol is the same (some types of Glycol are very toxic while others are used as a food additive).

The key to containing a virus is catching all people who are infected. The problem with the Covid 19 virus is, is that a large number of people get infected without serious symptoms so these fly below the radar. You can compare Covid19 to a stealth bomber. You don't notice it until it is too late and you have no idea where it hits next. If it would be easy to contain the Covid19 virus then it would have been done already. The SARS outbreak never reached the proportions of Covid19. The Covid19 outbreak started in November 2019. We are almost 3 months further and there is no end in sight.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 19, 2020, 10:57:11 pm
-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."
Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism..
PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 19, 2020, 11:05:38 pm
Wow, I'm impressed at the apparent medical research background of the engineers here, but personally, just like I wouldn't expect a clinical pathologist (or whatever a virus expert is called) to answer complex electrical engineering subjects, I don't pretend to understand anything whatsoever about COVID-19 or any other virus. Just like, apparently, a lot of medical folks at this point, who seem to be scrambling to understand this. At best I look at the data I can find, and any information direct from what appear to be experts (which does NOT include online media), and give it my best guess.

So all I can suggest is that folks search the actual data rather than believing the media clickbait hype, and at the same time be intelligently over-precautious. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 19, 2020, 11:13:48 pm
Wow, I'm impressed at the apparent medical research background of the engineers here, but personally, just like I wouldn't expect a clinical pathologist
Don't overestimate doctors. I had a problem with my wrist which I had to diagnose myself based on an MRI scan. Two specialists couldn't figure it out. Engineering principles apply to almost everything.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 19, 2020, 11:17:21 pm

The key to containing a virus is catching all people who are infected. The problem with the Covid 19 virus is, is that a large number of people get infected without serious symptoms so these fly below the radar. You can compare Covid19 to a stealth bomber. You don't notice it until it is too late and you have no idea where it hits next. If it would be easy to contain the Covid19 virus then it would have been done already. The SARS outbreak never reached the proportions of Covid19. The Covid19 outbreak started in November 2019. We are almost 3 months further and there is no end in sight.
^
This.

Covid-19 vs SARS : 9000 cases vs 250 000 verified cases and probably at least another 250000 cases untested at the moment.
SARS spread to 19 countries, Covid has already spread to every continent and 195 countries(some African countries don't have verified cases yet but that is mostly because of non-existing healtcare and testing)
add to that the stealthiness of Covid-19 and you'll see why its such a hard task.

Even if you tested every one of 7 billion population and quarantine each of them the virus would rebound back from somewhere eventually.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 19, 2020, 11:17:43 pm
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.

This is what we call the calm before the storm.  Those of us in Florida who go through hurricanes see this every year.  The "but it's only a Cat-1 storm" or "it isn't going to hit here" or "I've been through worse."

Yeah...  Ask those of us who went through Wilma about cat-1 storms.  This isolation/no supplies/no food thing?  Been there, done that.  We had no electricity for 30 DAYS and you couldn't even get gas for your generators because the gas stations had no power or generators either (now they are mandated to have generators by law).

Complacency is NOT your friend.  Many have died at hurricane parties...

Look at Italy.  Their death count just passed China.  Let's get out the grade-school math:
China population:  1.4 BILLION
Italy Population:  60.3 MILLION

Yet Italy had more deaths ALREADY than China had....  Methinks China wasn't as truthful about their death counts.  Something is SERIOUSLY wrong.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 19, 2020, 11:21:34 pm
FWIW, I found a news article from last month on what happened to SARS and what might happen to COVID-19:

"John Nicholls, clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said the SARS outbreak was brought to an end in July 2003 by good hygiene practices -- such as frequent hand-washing -- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."
Yep, I lived through that. Automated taps were always popular in HK, but during SARS most of the remaining manual taps in public places were replaced with automated ones. The button panels in elevators were covered in plastic film, which was wiped with steriliser every hour, and the film replaced every day. Communal door handles were sterilised every hour. And so on. Wearing a mask when sick was always a practice in Japan, but it would have looked odd in HK. SARS broke any taboo, and huge numbers of HK people wore masks in public. This practice has persisted until today. Large numbers of people in HK now wear masks when they have colds and flu to reduce their effect on others. Then the temperature and humidity rose, and it was all over. The great fear was it would come back at the end of the year, as the temperature fell, but luckily is didn't.
"That will be the same for this one," he said. "My feeling is that this is just going to be like SARS and the world is going to get basically a very bad cold for about five months."
There is no guarantee of that, but so far all the bad outbreaks seem to have occurred in places at a similar temperature and humidity, so its probably a typical temperature sensitive virus.
Of course, I'm sure in the medical community there are many varied opinions on this, and since I have zero medical experience I can't comment, but at least it seems reasonable to consider that maybe this will go the way of the other coronaviruses and just die out.
Not really. This is well established stuff. There is a reason colds and flu are mostly winter problems. Your chances of catching most flu like virii is considerably reduced if you just keep your nose warm at all times. The rapid rise of mask wearing in HK during SARS probably reduced infection as much by insulating people's noses when they went outside as by reducing the inhalation of the virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 19, 2020, 11:23:42 pm
I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.
This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it!

The panic shopping has to do with us Americans being brought up that this is "the land of plenty."  Everyone assumes that obtaining anything at all is as simple as going to the corner store or going on Amazon.  Many people food shop daily, believe it or not.  (you'd swear refrigerators haven't been invented yet).  And a huge part of the population thinks "cooking" means "putting last night's McDonalds hamburger in the microwave." 

To say we are spoiled, is an understatement.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on March 19, 2020, 11:28:20 pm
-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."
Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism..
PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer?
Seasonality is much more complex:
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-deaths/seasonality-of-death/contents/table-of-contents (https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-deaths/seasonality-of-death/contents/table-of-contents)
There are larger trends as the causes of death change with time, and the Spanish flu made a noticeable blip in total deaths.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 19, 2020, 11:34:47 pm
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.

Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2.  It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 20, 2020, 12:01:46 am
I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.

Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS?

People fell ill at about the same time that they became infectious.

This allowed ill people to remove themselves from the wider community before the infection could transfer. This made it possible to drop the effective reproduction rate to below 1.0 (allowing it to die out), without the need to isolating large numbers of seemingly healthy people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 20, 2020, 12:05:33 am
Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.

It has no sense to have production sites in Far East just because the production costs are ie. 4x lower, and when really needed you have to pay 50x more for it, moreover, you cannot get in time and in the amounts required.

Every government at least in EU is complaining today "we don't have this and that handy as it is produced in Far East and to get something off there is difficult, or, it costs you an arm and leg today".

These kind of pandemics will repeat much more often in the future with a similar scenario, so we have to be able to produce the stuff at home.

The only reason the West relies on so much stuff made in Asia is greed in its purest form, by corporations, governments and individuals. The West is now reaping what it has sowed.

Those Apple fanboys who cannot get the latest iPhone - my heart bleeds :-DD.

Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 20, 2020, 12:14:31 am
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.

Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2.  It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it.

No - no chance of it being a close/recent mutation - too many differences. The closest is Bat Cronavirus.

You can check this yourself.

Hop on to https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947)

Select a random line of the genome: In this case I randomly picked "taagtacaag tattttagtg gagcaatgga tacaactagc tacagagaag ctgcttgttg"

The use the "Run BLAST" link on the top right.

Paste the sequence in the "search" window, and see what matches.

For that sequence, 2019-nCoV is all of the "111" scores - a 100% match

The next highest (106 - a 98.3% match) is "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate 2019-nCoV/USA-CA9/2020, complete genome" and then "Bat coronavirus RaTG13, complete genome".

The original SARS is nowhere to be seen, because no significant match is found.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 12:15:15 am
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.

Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2.  It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it.

The same species, a different strain. SARS is caused by the virus SARS-Cov, the disease (strictly syndrome) Covid-19 by the virus SARS-Cov-2.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 20, 2020, 12:41:06 am
Here's a sobering statistic...

Quote
Modeling data from China shows that 4 out of 5 people diagnosed with coronavirus contracted it from someone they didn't know

Of the many things that have happened in the past week since CNN's last town hall, Dr. Sanjay Gupta said one of the most surprising to him was new data from China that showed 80% of coronavirus patients contracted the virus from someone they didn't know.

"There is a message in there, I think for all of us," Gupta said. "We are, as I said, all dependent on each other more than ever, and more than I can certainly remember in my lifetime, and it's why we all have to behave like we have the virus ... you will be more careful, you will be more mindful, you will slow down."

This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!

Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies.  I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 20, 2020, 01:03:40 am
It has already been told many times that hands are a much more likely way to get infected. Wearing a mask just puts a big, wet infected rag on top of your face.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: james_s on March 20, 2020, 01:09:16 am
If you are coughing or sneezing then wearing a face mask will help protect others, but if you are coughing or sneezing you really shouldn't be out in public at all. People buying/wearing masks necessarily is depriving people in situations where they really help from getting them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 20, 2020, 01:29:39 am
Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost.

One word:  Chemicals.

So many environmental restrictions in the USA for a lot of the chemicals we use to build this stuff.  (and mostly for good reason).  The USA tends to use foreign countries to do our "dirty work."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rgarito on March 20, 2020, 01:32:20 am

This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!

Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies.  I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.

Exactly.  The REAL problem with face masks in the USA is that there is a shortage of them.  At this point you can find a gold bar on the street easier than you can get a face mask at a local drug store.  The CDC apparently just told doctors to even use bandanna's if necessary.   :o

New York City's mayor is now saying the city will run out of "medical supplies" within 2-3 weeks at the current rates.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 20, 2020, 01:53:12 am
I don't know if this video has been posted already but it gives a good indication of how the spread of a virus can be minimised and in turn the death toll.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSQztKXR6k0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSQztKXR6k0)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 20, 2020, 04:18:01 am

This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!

Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies.  I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.

Exactly.  The REAL problem with face masks in the USA is that there is a shortage of them.  At this point you can find a gold bar on the street easier than you can get a face mask at a local drug store.  The CDC apparently just told doctors to even use bandanna's if necessary.   :o

New York City's mayor is now saying the city will run out of "medical supplies" within 2-3 weeks at the current rates.

So, let's see if we can get some agreement.

If you are sneezing and coughing, you should wear a face mask, but you shouldn't be out in public if you're sneezing and coughing. So, except for the case where you are on the way to a medical treatment facility or sitting in a waiting room, or otherwise being around other people where you have no real choice in the matter. - ok

If you are carrying and asymptomatic, you could be spreading, so wear a face mask. Since there is no way of knowing whether you are incubating, Everybody who feels fine should wear a mask. - OK

But if everyone else is NOT wearing a face mask (and of course that is the case), then you end up with a viral rag on your face as soon as an incubator lets loose on you. Consequently, you end up breathing in the virus because the globules are sitting on your crappy face mask. So, a healthy persons becomes a sick person because they wore a face mask.

On top of all this, we don't have enough face masks to go around, so we are depriving people who need them more than us. Because we don't have enough testing, we have no way of knowing if someone is an incubator. In fact, it is still unclear how easy it is to get tested even if you are symptomatic.

How about we talk more about wearing a face shield.

Now, if an incubator sneezes in her direction, her nose, eyes and mouth are protected. Is that plastic going to actually work? Yeah, pretty well https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24467190 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24467190) at least for 8.5 μm aerosols but less so for 3.4 μm and as the large particles settle and the smaller particles are dispersing, their effectiveness goes down because the little devils are working their way around. Although, just keeping your distance (72") helps a lot and it goes back up.

Short of a real respirator, I would choose a face shield over a face mask. At least that is my thinking right now.

edit: plus you can put little cool stickers on it like little bumper stickers.
      :removed link to picture of face shield
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 20, 2020, 04:37:14 am
Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ...  :-+ :clap:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Red Squirrel on March 20, 2020, 04:40:19 am
Welp.  A case confirmed in my city now. 

https://www.timminspress.com/news/local-news/first-case-of-covid-19-in-timmins-confirmed-phu (https://www.timminspress.com/news/local-news/first-case-of-covid-19-in-timmins-confirmed-phu)

From my understanding this virus likes the cold more than the heat, so it could possibly spread much faster here.  Not good.

I've been pretty much avoiding going out, except for work.  They are suppose to set us up to work from home but it's taking forever.   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 20, 2020, 05:38:13 am
-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."
Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism..
PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer?

SARS infected people were easier to spot because the disease developed quicker so the disease didn't spread around the world

COVID-19 infected people mostly go unnoticed so it already spread all around the world and even if it is likely to be affected by summer weather (but we do not know yet for sure) don't forget that the earth is made of 2 hemispheres where the seasons are reversed so it is not going to magically disappear

I just see too many people misunderstanding realistic worry for panic
we need to act now
the stricter and more self-controlled and rational would be our behavior the shorter would be the crisis


besides that you can't define what is alive or not, the border between self-replicating chemical reactions and life is just too blurred as all life forms come anyway from just self-replicating chemical reactions

there are viruses that are larger and more complex than many bacteria and bacteria that are as simple as viruses or just have become an eukaryotic cell organelle (mitochondria)...

classifications and categorizations are just a shortcuts, reality is much more complex and messy
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 20, 2020, 08:03:23 am
Newest Italy statistics with interesting data:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf (https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf)

Quote
The average age of deceased and positive COVID-19 patients is 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103, InterQuartile Range - IQR 74.3-85.9). There are 601 women (30.0%).
Figure 1 shows that the median age of COVID-19 positive deceased patients is more than 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: deceased patients 80.5 years - patients infected with 63 years).
Figure 2 shows the number of deaths by age group. Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection are older than men (median ages: women 83.7 - men 79.5).

Quote
Table 1 presents the most common pre-existing chronic pathologies (diagnosed before contracting the infection) in deceased patients. This figure was obtained in 355/2003 deaths (17.7% of the overall sample).
The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 2.7 (median 2, Standard Deviation 1.6).
Overall,
3 patients (0.8% of the sample) had 0 pathologies,
89 (25.1%) had 1 pathology,
91 had 2 pathologies (25.6%) and
172 (48.5%) had 3 or more pathologies.

Quote
To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular, 5 of these were less than 40 and they were all male people aged between 31 and 39 with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 20, 2020, 09:13:39 am
The UK curve, an almost perfect exponential curve of inaction!

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14)

They can't even be botherd to update that until 6pm but it always says 9am, that's public health england, hopeless morons.

It's pointless anyway.  The UK stats where one of the first bits of truth to go.  Look at the number of recovered versus deaths.  They are only testing hospitalised patients and rich people.

I stopped watching them, the data is so badly skewed it's more wrong than right.

That and as normal, "Public Health England" are looking after their own, but claiming to be "UK Wide".  You will note the Northern Ireland stats are poor and mostly an estimate with no break down.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 20, 2020, 09:26:17 am
Although many people around the world have been infected, a lot of people who go to the supermarket still do not wear masks and do not take any protective measures.As a Chinese who has just experienced a long period of isolation, I have to say that protection is a must.The government asked us to be quarantined for a while before we started work.Now, Chinese factories are finally operating again.But many businesses around the world are struggling to survive because of the virus. Click here to learn
Edited: deleted URL link

The above post has been reported for moderation.
Please refrain from posting promotional links and material disguised as important information. Your questionable activity has been reported for moderation.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 20, 2020, 09:34:17 am
The above post has been reported for moderation.
Please refrain from posting promotional links and material disguised as important information. Your questionable activity has been reported for moderation.

It's bizarre.  Capitalism and communism seemed to have swapped places.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 20, 2020, 09:42:26 am
These people have posted spam here before in the same manner, behind the important information façade is a link to their website.   ::)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 10:04:27 am
FYI, today the CDC is reporting a total of 150 people have died so far from COVID-19 in the US (population 330 million).

WHO is reporting 100 people have died so far in US.

Since yesterday the total deaths were around 50, it seems certain (IMO) that the news media will focus on the fact that the death rate has nearly doubled or tripled, rather than on the fact that it's only 100-150 deaths total.

And since it seems the entire country is pretty much shut down right now, maybe there's a light at the end of the tunnel, and maybe this will end up being another short-lived SARS. 

BTW, anyone remember this?

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and of vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 20, 2020, 12:14:31 pm
Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost.

One word:  Chemicals.

So many environmental restrictions in the USA for a lot of the chemicals we use to build this stuff.  (and mostly for good reason).  The USA tends to use foreign countries to do our "dirty work."
Yes, that's true. You don't shit on your own doorstep.


This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!

Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies.  I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.

Exactly.  The REAL problem with face masks in the USA is that there is a shortage of them.  At this point you can find a gold bar on the street easier than you can get a face mask at a local drug store.  The CDC apparently just told doctors to even use bandanna's if necessary.   :o

New York City's mayor is now saying the city will run out of "medical supplies" within 2-3 weeks at the current rates.
I think a big benifit of face masks is they stop people from touching their faces unconsciously, thus will help cut the spread, so for most people a cheap, crappy mask will do.
FYI, today the CDC is reporting a total of 150 people have died so far from COVID-19 in the US (population 330 million).

WHO is reporting 100 people have died so far in US.

Since yesterday the total deaths were around 50, it seems certain (IMO) that the news media will focus on the fact that the death rate has nearly doubled or tripled, rather than on the fact that it's only 100-150 deaths total.
That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 12:32:04 pm
Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."

That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?

The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.

And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.

Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 20, 2020, 01:11:04 pm
Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."

That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?

The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.

And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.

Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

See the graph for total fatalities. Nice exponential growth. Do you expect this curve to just flatten out over night?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 20, 2020, 01:26:44 pm
It has to flatten out soon because of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic games (July 24th)..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 01:31:15 pm
Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."

That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?

The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.

And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.

Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

See the graph for total fatalities. Nice exponential growth. Do you expect this curve to just flatten out over night?

Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

But IMO what's more important is whether there is a slowing trend, which means the rate of new deaths is trending lower. That's what happened with SARS. The isolation measures worked, and it died out. But assuming exponential for the future IMPLIES that everyone will get it very soon and we'll all die.

I don't think that's rational. It might end up that we all die, but I think there's a reasonable case to be made, based on the results of SARS and MERS, etc., that these protective measures might end up working.

Or, we'll all die tomorrow.   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 20, 2020, 01:35:19 pm
Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

With the average estimate incubation period being 5 days and the average time between symptoms to death being 15 days.  The deaths data you see today has approximately a 20 day lag time compared with infections.  So it's not unreasonable to transpolate it back/forward 20 days.

And... if it stays exponential and does not reach an inflection point in under 2 weeks what will the daily death rate be then?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 01:42:44 pm
Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

With the average estimate incubation period being 5 days and the average time between symptoms to death being 15 days.  The deaths data you see today has approximately a 20 day lag time compared with infections.  So it's not unreasonable to transpolate it back/forward 20 days.

And... if it stays exponential and does not reach an inflection point in under 2 weeks what will the daily death rate be then?

Again, you can assume and hypotheticalize (I just made that word up) anything you want. Maybe it's not exponential to the second power, maybe it's exponential to the 10th power and everyone will get it by 8pm tonight.

At this point it comes down to what you want to believe. Some people seem to enjoy excitement in any form, even if it's fear. Which is why horror movies are so popular.

Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 20, 2020, 01:48:43 pm
Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.

The two are not mutually exclusive.  Both are up to you.  Making predictions on data based on previous trends is how the real world works and no not all extrapolations will turn out to match, but they are often close enough to matter.

I also think that people SHOULD be a little afraid.  Not paniced or insane, but afraid enough to listen to people telling them how to protect themselves, their families and their community.

If it turns out we over reacted, things will bounce back again.

So a few airlines go under, but when it all ends people will need airlines and new ones will be born, jobs will be created.  Life will go on.  As long as we can support those in trouble during the worst of it we will all be fine.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 20, 2020, 02:03:17 pm
Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."

That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?

The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.

And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.

Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

See the graph for total fatalities. Nice exponential growth. Do you expect this curve to just flatten out over night?

Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

But IMO what's more important is whether there is a slowing trend, which means the rate of new deaths is trending lower. That's what happened with SARS. The isolation measures worked, and it died out. But assuming exponential for the future IMPLIES that everyone will get it very soon and we'll all die.

I don't think that's rational. It might end up that we all die, but I think there's a reasonable case to be made, based on the results of SARS and MERS, etc., that these protective measures might end up working.

Or, we'll all die tomorrow.   
That's because it's not a true exponential, but a logistic function and it doesn't kill everyone who gets it. The number of new cases has only stopped in China because of the extreme restrictions imposed by the authorities over there. The rest of the world need to do the same to stop it, but most governments aren't authoritarian, like China's.

It's common sense really. Imagine someone unknowingly has the virus. They will pass it on to lots of others, as they walk around feeling fine. In the process the other people they infect, will also infect others.

As mentioned above, SARS and MERS were very different beasts because they didn't have such a long incubation period and were more deadly.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 20, 2020, 02:09:07 pm
In Finland, we have some very interesting times going on: as of today, opposite to what every other country is doing, the government is now lifting some restrictions, and opening schools again, all 1st to 3rd graders are free to go back if their parents so wish.

We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)

So the sane people here are in the survival mode, practically we are expecting a war-like situation, not only against the virus, but against the government which we have lost all trust, and which is now endangering the lives of tens of thousands.

Those who only follow local mainstream media, are reassured that nothing bad will happen. We only have "recommendations" that you "should" limit the social connections "a bit".

Our president is, luckily, a somewhat sane person, so we hope he will overdrive most of the madness going on, but we'll see. He actually had to force the government and the PM to declare the state of emergency against their will; but after that was done, very little actual emergency laws have taken place, limitation to drug hoarding being one of the actual actions taken.

The police has reported that they will do absolutely nothing to enforce the limititations of >10 person social activities, because there is no law to permit them to take any action.

It's important to get international publicity to these actions; negative international response typically makes Finnish politicians change their views because we are very afraid about what everybody else thinks about us (refer to the elephant joke as expressed by Nominal Animal earlier).

Very interesting times!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 02:09:56 pm
I guess I'm not too concerned about companies going under. Maybe I'm naive, but businesses exist, buyers exist, demand will never go away, buildings and/or websites exist, and it seems like if they shut down for, say, a month or something none of that changes.

In fact I thought that in Europe many businesses shut down for a month or so every year as standard practice for some holiday or something? Or maybe I'm mis-remembering.

Universities take long, multi-month summer breaks every year. Amazon will thrive, as will its suppliers and all the associated manufacturers and delivery companies. Sounds like the US government will be sending checks to all taxpayers, businesses are still paying employees, there will be more government hand-outs to businesses, etc.

Some businesses will do fine (probably Walmart and grocery stores). And just imagine all the suppliers who can find ways to continue their business while maintaining protective measures. They'll do fine.

So yeah, definitely it will be tough. But what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 20, 2020, 02:15:28 pm

We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)


Yeah, according to WHO today Italy is doing the worst of all, with 473 new deaths in the last day, compared to 42 in US and 11 in China. Spain is at 107.

By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.

Actually there are a whole bunch of countries with no deaths at all. Israel, Vietnam, Iceland, much of Southeast Asia (eg, India region), etc.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 02:19:30 pm
In Finland, we have some very interesting times going on: opposite to what every other country is doing, the government is now lifting some restrictions, and opening schools again, all 1st to 3rd graders are free to go back if their parents so wish.

We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)

So the sane people here are in the survival mode, practically we are expecting a war-like situation, not only against the virus, but against the government which we have lost all trust, and which is now endangering the lives of tens of thousands.

Those who only follow local mainstream media, are reassured that nothing bad will happen.

Our president is, luckily, a somewhat sane person, so we hope he will overdrive most of the madness going on, but we'll see. Very interesting times!
On the other hand they are closing down the skiing centres in Lapland (but too slow IMO)

Maybe virus spread looked too slow on the models and they have excess capacity on ICU units? Why bother slowing down if strategy is anyways to infect almost everyone eventually?  >:D :popcorn:
1-2 week lag and little testing makes it "interesting" to adjust the infection rate  to suitable level.   :popcorn:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 20, 2020, 02:20:16 pm
By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.

And only 5 in ICU. We are one of the last countries, we are approximately one week behind Sweden in the curve. So we had best chances to react properly, but no, we failed.

The decision point was approximately one week ago. This was when the government came out to say that the situation is critical, and that they could do many things, but they won't yet - literally. Opposition required actions, to no avail. After this point, we have had some actions, but always too little, too late. And, they have also took steps back, like stopping most testing, and reopening schools.

It's more or less equally bad elsewhere, I know, but coming late into the party, we had the best chances of learning from the mistakes of the others, and do it properly.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 02:27:24 pm

By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
I suspect that its a failure in testing or slowness of reporting. Norway and Sweden have both over 10 cases, I don't see why situation in here would be different.
Or it's just a luck so far, ie nobody with the virus visiting in nursing home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 20, 2020, 02:51:06 pm

By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
I suspect that its a failure in testing or slowness of reporting. Norway and Sweden have both over 10 cases, I don't see why situation in here would be different.
Or it's just a luck so far, ie nobody with the virus visiting in nursing home.
You guys spend too much time in the sauna, it could be the virus does not like temperatures higher than 80degC..  :P
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 20, 2020, 02:52:27 pm

By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
I suspect that its a failure in testing or slowness of reporting. Norway and Sweden have both over 10 cases, I don't see why situation in here would be different.
Or it's just a luck so far, ie nobody with the virus visiting in nursing home.

Or, maybe Finns are just tough as old boots!  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 02:52:55 pm

You guys spend too much time in the sauna, it could be the virus does not like temperatures higher than 80degC..  :P
Would match with the Swedish sauna habits where they go to lukewarm sauna below 80degC  >:D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 20, 2020, 02:58:22 pm

We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)


Yeah, according to WHO today Italy is doing the worst of all, with 473 new deaths in the last day, compared to 42 in US and 11 in China. Spain is at 107.

By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.

Actually there are a whole bunch of countries with no deaths at all. Israel, Vietnam, Iceland, much of Southeast Asia (eg, India region), etc.

What the fuck? At the morning 8am we were 833 deaths. Now , when i am writing the message are almost 4pm in Spain, we are 1102 deaths. Almost 300 deaths more than this morning.


Cifras totales: 19.980 casos diagnosticados, 1002 muertos (Today 12pm)

7.165 en Madrid (628 muertos)
3.270 en Cataluña (82 muertos)
1.465 en País Vasco (71 muertos)
1.105 en la Comunidad Valenciana (33 muertos)
1.287 en Andalucía (30 muertos)
1.044 en Castilla-La Mancha (62 muertos)
1.147 en Castilla y León (43 muertos)
497 en La Rioja (7 muertos)
554 en Navarra(5 muertos)
578 en Galicia (5 muertos)
360 en Aragón (17 muertos)
344 en Asturias (2 muertos)
297 en Extremadura (10 muertos)
287 en Canarias (4 muertos)
203 en Baleares (2 muertos)
204 en Murcia
144 en Cantabria (1 muerto)
24 en Melilla
5 en Ceuta
Se han curado 1.588 personas

Lack  the upgrading date deaths in the Cataluña , that the m..fk publish each day to 8pm.

In Madrid have the crematories working 24 hours per day , burning the fallings . There are three hospitals COLLAPSED and other 4 almost full. Besides there are protocols for leaving to die elder people that have  hope of life less of the 2 years
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 20, 2020, 03:40:08 pm
Can we all calm down.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 20, 2020, 03:41:10 pm
Finnish Ministry of Health has also given directions as to what information can be divulged, so it is unlikely that we'd know even if there had already been covid-19 deaths here.  If we look at how they failed to inform the public of the Tsernobyl meltdown here, it would certainly be typical.  The decision to stop testing except for health personnel and politically privileged individuals in Helsinki-Uusimaa region was certainly just to control the appearance of the severity of the situation; purely political.

I suspect the Finnish government has realized that they missed the time window to successfully apply harder quarantine measures, and that if they tried to apply them now, they'd lose the support of their own voter base, so they're betting everything on the herd immunity chance, with older folks voluntarily isolating themselves.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 20, 2020, 03:42:33 pm
So yeah, definitely it will be tough. But what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.  :D

Tell that to someone who "recovers" from this coronavirus with permanent lung damage.

Tell that to the tens of thousands of people who have already lost their jobs here in the past week, or the hundreds of thousands that will be out of work soon as this drags on for months and leaves closures and bankrupcies in its wake...

This is likely to really, really suck... 
(Mostly from the follow-on consequences more than the actual virus,...)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 04:09:54 pm
How about we talk more about wearing a face shield.

Now, if an incubator sneezes in her direction, her nose, eyes and mouth are protected. Is that plastic going to actually work? Yeah, pretty well https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24467190 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24467190) at least for 8.5 μm aerosols but less so for 3.4 μm and as the large particles settle and the smaller particles are dispersing, their effectiveness goes down because the little devils are working their way around. Although, just keeping your distance (72") helps a lot and it goes back up.

Short of a real respirator, I would choose a face shield over a face mask. At least that is my thinking right now.

Corollary:

When operating on any patient surgical teams wear face masks to protect the patient from them.

When operating on patients who present an infection risk to the operating team, the operating team wear face shields to protect them from the patient.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 04:15:50 pm
The decision to stop testing except for health personnel and politically privileged individuals in Helsinki-Uusimaa region was certainly just to control the appearance of the severity of the situation; purely political.

IMO the decision to limit testing to severely ill and healthcare personnel was right at the moment. Besides in here they are testing at about rate of 1200 tests per day. We are still miles ahead of US considering total population.
Do you have any idea how many Finns currently have coronavirus-like symptoms from the dozen of other viruses in the circulation?

Testing 5% or 20% people with symptoms doesn't make difference other than feeding social porn need of people and press. Strategy in here is same as rest of the european countries: slow the process and infect nearly everyone eventually.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 04:27:56 pm
In fact I thought that in Europe many businesses shut down for a month or so every year as standard practice for some holiday or something? Or maybe I'm mis-remembering.

Not so much nowadays, but it was commonplace when we had heavy industries with continuous production processes that needed to stop to provide time for maintenance. For example, the annual "potter's holiday" where the whole of Stoke-on-Trent went on holiday - they had to let kilns completely cool down before they could go in and do repair work.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 20, 2020, 04:29:03 pm
IMO the decision to limit testing to severely ill and healthcare personnel was right at the moment. Besides in here they are testing at about rate of 1200 tests per day. We are still miles ahead of US considering total population.
Do you have any idea how many Finns currently have coronavirus-like symptoms from the dozen of other viruses in the circulation?
Do you realize that Juha Sarkio (director-general of the public governance department of the Finnish ministry of finance) would not have been able to get tested, if he was just an ordinary citizen?  His exposure was under the THL requirements for getting tested; the only reason he got tested was his connections.

Testing 5% or 20% people with symptoms doesn't make difference other than feeding social porn need of people and press.
What you call "social porn" is what I call "understanding the severity of the situation".  Because the numbers are kept artificially low (just look at the nice, linear curve for the last six days at korona.kans.io (https://korona.kans.io/)), people are not taking things seriously.

Because of this, I predict Helsinki-Uusimaa will have a sudden step in the number of dead, as the virus takes its course.  (I would have given some kind of an estimate on the timeframe, but I cannot find any statistics on the duration from infection till death.  The early stages of the spread in Helsinki-Uusimaa region, till March 14, are well known; but after that, the numbers are pure fiction.  If I knew the detailed statistics from elsewhere, a numerical simulation based on the initial onset statistics, would show pretty well what will happen here.  I do believe you too will then say "but nobody could predict this", even when these predictions have been offered for months now.  That also happened with Nokia, btw.  I'm sure you disagree there too.  Feel free; I am only offering my observations here.)

I'm not angry or wish to antagonize you in any way, mzzj, but I do believe Finnish media suffers from the same affliction you do: you think that by keeping information from people, you are somehow helping them.  I simply disagree, based on past experience.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 04:36:56 pm
   Come back in six months and then you can tell if the fear was irrational or not.  I'm pretty certain that you have never been through an empidemic and have no idea what it's like. I've been through one it's not something that should ever be treated lightly.
That's not what he said. People need to stop interpreting the refusal to get caught up in the panic and fear as treating things lightly. Fear is useless. Preparation is not. The best thing to do is stay calm, take sensible precautions and monitor the situation. Endlessly repeating it's going to be horrible is useless and counter productive. Many people are going to die. We know this. Get ready.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 04:42:06 pm
NO - you wrote:
Quote
    It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked.

and I replied:
Quote
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)

there is no reference to a proportion, no percentage
healthy and fit people are dying now
without ICU would die even more
THIS IS NOT FLUE

it is completely false that they are
Quote
almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness

I showed that even some kids did need ICU in China
I never said a huge proportion of kids
it is you who used the term "almost exclusively"
You wrote "lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath" which simply isn't true. Some do, but those seem to be unfortunate exceptions.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 20, 2020, 04:44:05 pm
The problem will be that if they become overwhelmed the few younger people that will struggle will have as much chance as the old ones.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 20, 2020, 04:54:36 pm
Deciding not to test isn't necessarily, fundamentally a bad idea; it's, however, the polar opposite of the WHO and expert advice, so to take such a fundamentally different approach than the others, is a human experiment.

Deciding not to test should go along with a stricter-than-usual limitations on social actions, and monitoring thereof. One expert analysis I remember reading about (sorry, no reference) is that one infected can infect 3000 more, if not quarantined. While this is a worst-case, I can easily believe real-world numbers are in hundreds. Wide testing reduces such incidents. I see this is clearly the strategy Germany and South Korea have taken.

Another possibility would be to basically put everybody - or at very least, everybody showing even the mildest symptoms (which isn't very effective because there is a symptomless yet infectious period) - in quarantine-like (or nearly so; for example, allowing one visit to a store per week, and nothing else) conditions. Without enforcing by brute force by police, it won't work. So in practice, this level of control happens only when the society is already collapsing, currently it seems we are at this point only in Italy and Spain.

So as long as people do continue to socialize, maybe just limiting it "by a little bit" as instructed by the officials and the media here (there are many conflicting instructions; people pick which suits them best, which is the "reducing socializing a little bit is enough" advice), the best way to work around this is to test, test, and again, test. When someone tests positive, then they most likely take the quarantine seriously, and it's easier to enforce for those very few who still won't.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 20, 2020, 05:02:38 pm
Deciding not to test isn't necessarily, fundamentally a bad idea; it's, however, the polar opposite of the WHO and expert advice, so to take such a fundamentally different approach than the others, is a human experiment.

Indeed. I find this rather blunt to defend the opposite view now that the WHO has made the point clearly.
As I already said multiple times, the real point IMO in  many countries is that we just don't have the capacity to do more testing. So we just can't comply, and find reasons not to (so the populations don't panic and get back at their governments, which admittedly would just make things worse at the very moment.) Just MHO.

So as long as people do continue to socialize, maybe just limiting it "by a little bit" as instructed by the officials and the media here (there are many conflicting instructions; people pick which suits them best, which is the "reducing socializing a little bit is enough" advice), the best way to work around this is to test, test, and again, test. When someone tests positive, then they most likely take the quarantine seriously, and it's easier to enforce for those very few who still won't.

Agreed. Besides relentlessly working on a future vaccine, we should definitely work very hard on devising quick and cheap tests.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 20, 2020, 05:32:33 pm

Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.

just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 20, 2020, 05:36:53 pm

We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)


Yeah, according to WHO today Italy is doing the worst of all, with 473 new deaths in the last day, compared to 42 in US and 11 in China. Spain is at 107.

By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.

Actually there are a whole bunch of countries with no deaths at all. Israel, Vietnam, Iceland, much of Southeast Asia (eg, India region), etc.

you must be that kind of guy who thinks that (x - 50%) + 50% = x...  ;D
you just do not know that you do not know
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 05:40:41 pm
just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)
It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 20, 2020, 05:46:53 pm
just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)
It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.

Yeah. I'm also not sure what not1xor1 is really on about here. It's kind of unclear. Looks like they are trying to warn us that the crisis is all much worse than we think it is, but what purpose exactly would that serve? Are we not already bombarded with Covid 19-related stuff 24/7?

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 20, 2020, 05:49:28 pm
What the fuck? At the morning 8am we were 833 deaths. Now , when i am writing the message are almost 4pm in Spain, we are 1102 deaths. Almost 300 deaths more than this morning.

part of the problem, I read, is that some countries do not count death as we do...
e.g. if people have cancer besides COVID-19 they might count is as a cancer death

in any case:
Quote
Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator1 of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).

reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 20, 2020, 05:58:06 pm
So yeah, definitely it will be tough. But what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.  :D

Tell that to someone who "recovers" from this coronavirus with permanent lung damage.

Tell that to the tens of thousands of people who have already lost their jobs here in the past week, or the hundreds of thousands that will be out of work soon as this drags on for months and leaves closures and bankrupcies in its wake...

This is likely to really, really suck... 
(Mostly from the follow-on consequences more than the actual virus,...)

I've read various times that those people who recovered, even young ones, lost smell and taste senses and none knows how and if they'll ever get them back
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 06:00:48 pm
I've read various times that those people who recovered, even young ones, lost smell and taste senses and none knows how and if they'll ever get them back
This doesn't sound conveniently scary yet unspecific at all.  :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 06:02:23 pm
Do you realize that Juha Sarkio (director-general of the public governance department of the Finnish ministry of finance) would not have been able to get tested, if he was just an ordinary citizen?  His exposure was under the THL requirements for getting tested; the only reason he got tested was his connections.
Even if I normally would wish 90% of politic figures happy journey to hell I think its equally important to keep the existing government operational and healthy as the healthcare workers in a situation like this.
If testing capacity currently is 1500 tests per day and they run at nearly 80% capacity I don't see any difference if they make 200 extra tests per day. Those 200 extra tests would reveal probably less than 20 cases.


I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better. 
I guess we will see in a week or two if the slowdown process is enough efficient or if its even too efficient.
If the purpose is to suffer through this disease there is no point to try to slow it down too much. Delaying tactics until vaccination don't seem probable.

 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 20, 2020, 06:23:44 pm
just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)
It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.

we are just telling there is a hole in our Titanic ship but you pretend to ignore that and go on drinking and dancing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) (US: 15,367 cases 177 deaths)

something may be wrong here or in the previous one (probably here they forgot to update the cases number as it is the same I read yesterday):
https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/ (https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/) (US: 14,631 cases 210 deaths)


OK I managed to find the link to the original (and correct) map now:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) (US: 16,018 cases 210 deaths)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 06:34:15 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) (US: 15,367 cases 177 deaths)

something may be wrong here on in the previous one (probably here they forgot to update the cases number as it is the same I read yesterday):
https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/ (https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/) (US: 14,631 cases 210 deaths)
This is the equivalent of just pointing someone to Google. It's becoming clear you have no interest in the subject or actually discussing it. You've been asked to contribute anything tangible or substantial and consistently refuse to do so, which at this point can only be interpreted as being intentionally facetious. How about you just go away and let the adults have a productive discussion?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 20, 2020, 06:39:49 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) (US: 15,367 cases 177 deaths)

something may be wrong here on in the previous one (probably here they forgot to update the cases number as it is the same I read yesterday):
https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/ (https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/) (US: 14,631 cases 210 deaths)
This is the equivalent of just pointing someone to Google. It's becoming clear you have no interest in the subject or actually discussing it. You've been asked to contribute anything tangible or substantial and consistently refuse to do so, which at this point can only be interpreted as being intentionally facetious. How about you just go away and let the adults have a productive discussion?

LOL
this looks like a case study of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection)  ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 06:41:01 pm
we are just telling there is a hole in our Titanic ship but you pretend to ignore that and go on drinking and dancing
No, we're not. That's just your excuse to stir panic and act up. People are putting on life vests and getting into boats while you're running and shouting and tripping people up.

That's not what he said. People need to stop interpreting the refusal to get caught up in the panic and fear as treating things lightly. Fear is useless. Preparation is not. The best thing to do is stay calm, take sensible precautions and monitor the situation. Endlessly repeating it's going to be horrible is useless and counter productive. Many people are going to die. We know this. Get ready.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 20, 2020, 06:42:30 pm
I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better. 

The purpose is not to make you feel any better, the purpose is to quarantine you if it's the corona, so that you won't possibly infect 1000 people more.

Case study: South Korea. Look it up. They have practically won already, and they did it with extensive testing, including drive-in free test stations.

Quote
there is no point to try to slow it down too much

Slowing down have worked great in China and South Korea, and the idea is that you don't need to choose who dies and who lives, and don't need the military to dump bodies in masses in makeshift creamatories, which is now the reality in Italy. Again, look it up.

It's possible there's second wave in China and South Korea, in which case, the inconvinience comes back again. It's still easier.

You realize that if we decide not to have the inconvinience, this means approximately 200 000 dead bodies in Finland within a few weeks, and assuming you are a healthy male, you will likely be one of those called in for military service to dispose the bodies. THIS is what no one wants, THIS is why the actions are taking place. With the actions currently in place, it won't be that bad, but it will be still bad. With heavier actions, like China or South Korea, it would be much better.

So believe or not, yes, it really is mandatory to slow it down, in fact it seems no country has decided not to take any action whatsoever. Luckily you don't decide. Luckily Sale decided.

I hope you and your friends are self-quarantining already. Testing would help set you free if it's negative.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 06:44:01 pm
LOL
this looks like a case study of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection)  ;D
It does. I'm glad you're finally coming to terms with your limitations.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 20, 2020, 06:46:00 pm
Deciding not to test isn't necessarily, fundamentally a bad idea; it's, however, the polar opposite of the WHO and expert advice, so to take such a fundamentally different approach than the others, is a human experiment.

Indeed. I find this rather blunt to defend the opposite view now that the WHO has made the point clearly.
As I already said multiple times, the real point IMO in  many countries is that we just don't have the capacity to do more testing. So we just can't comply, and find reasons not to (so the populations don't panic and get back at their governments, which admittedly would just make things worse at the very moment.) Just MHO.

So as long as people do continue to socialize, maybe just limiting it "by a little bit" as instructed by the officials and the media here (there are many conflicting instructions; people pick which suits them best, which is the "reducing socializing a little bit is enough" advice), the best way to work around this is to test, test, and again, test. When someone tests positive, then they most likely take the quarantine seriously, and it's easier to enforce for those very few who still won't.

Agreed. Besides relentlessly working on a future vaccine, we should definitely work very hard on devising quick and cheap tests.


We had here a short discussion on how to proceed with testing (~2w back) and they decided to test "suspects" (the people returning from areas of high risk of exposure in our case, or people with covid-like symptoms) only, and when positive to track all their contacts down. Then they test all the persons in the contact's tree. PCR testing in ref centers.

There are people who want to be tested even they are not the suspects, and they can purchase a private testing (kits). Yesterday our government requested private providers of the testing to stop that exercise as we may need the kits when the situation worsens (as the testing kits are not readily available).

Our experts were against a "flat testing" as you may get a lot of false negative results, they said.
The "suspects" were exposed to the infection for much longer time, or contracted the virus a few days back, or, they show some symptoms already, thus the probability of getting the right result with the first test is high.

Btw, I watched Mr. Trump's briefing today with interest and the "testing" vs. "immediate actions" had been a pretty topic.
Dr. Fauci had to explain the "testing" vs. "immediate actions" may not be related. People usually tend to expect they ALL have to be tested first, and based on that all the negative persons may follow their businesses as usual. The positive people will be quarantined and that's it. That could be a challenging exercise, indeed.

Mr Trump has also invoked Defense Production Act to make important purchases for coping with virus. He is looking for a local manufacturer of ventilators and masks.. Where are they?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 20, 2020, 07:10:24 pm
Quote
19:37 - WHO: collapsed hospitals, it is not bad influence
«There are health systems collapsing. This is not normal, ”said Michael Ryan, WHO's executive director of the emergency health program in the usual daily briefing. “Look at intensive care in some parts of the world, completely overwhelmed. Look to the exhausted doctors and nurses. This is not normal. This is not a simple particularly negative flu season. "

source:
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_marzo_20%2Fcoronavirus-ultime-notizie-dall-italia-mondo-39828fbc-6a74-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_marzo_20%2Fcoronavirus-ultime-notizie-dall-italia-mondo-39828fbc-6a74-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml)

according to Mr. Scram (and mr Trump) this is just like flu

thousands of experts saying otherwise, tenths of studies published recently... it doesn't matter... of course those are just opinions
you can't compare those to Mr Scram facts  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sal Ammoniac on March 20, 2020, 07:14:30 pm
If it turns out we over reacted, things will bounce back again.

Oh sure, just like things bounced back after WWII. When did rationing end in the UK? Sometime in the 1950s?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 20, 2020, 07:15:55 pm
I think its equally important to keep the existing government operational and healthy as the healthcare workers in a situation like this.
I would put government officials secondary to healthcare workers and those who need to interact with people, like tellers and delivery people.

If testing capacity currently is 1500 tests per day
That, too, is completely arbitrary number.  There are several companies in Finland, including Aidian (https://www.aidian.fi/), that manufacture the tests in the millions, and export them.  While you do need trained technicians to run the tests, we could have crash-trained dozens of them in the past two months. 

My point is, the "we can't do any more tests" claim is bullshit, just like the claim "we cannot close our borders" was.  They lie, because they are unable to rationally examine the reasons for the decisions they are making.

I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better.
Me too, for over a week now.  I am not interested in getting myself tested either.

Look.  There is a concerted effort to keep the numbers artificially low, because those in charge are scared.  Because they are scared, they think that they are doing a good job by keeping the numbers hidden, so that people won't panic.  Unfortunately, as we are seeing in Helsinki region -- much of the rest of the Finland is doing much better, over half of the cases are within Helsinki-Uusimaa region --, the numbers shown are so small people do not think there is any reason for them to behave any different, and in doing so, they are spreading the virus at a rapid rate.

We won't know how bad the situation is, unless it is revealed by the number of dead (and it is possible to suppress those numbers too), or if we get incredibly lucky and the strain affecting Helsinki-Uusimaa regions happen to be less lethal than others.

To put it bluntly, I have already estimated about 2,000 dead in Helsinki-Uusimaa (HUS) before May.  This is based on just 15% of the region getting infected, and on just 1% fatality rate.  The only thing that makes me think this is a very unreliable estimate is the fact that I do not know the statistics on the typical duration (from infection till death), and have assumed it is on the order of 30 days.

If Finns were told point blank that we expect a couple of thousand to die before the summer, backed by wider testing numbers and statistics from other countries, don't you think more people would take the social isolation more seriously?  I do.

Instead, I predict that the tampering with the official figures is ignored, and the sudden start of deaths will be claimed to be "unforeseeable".

If the purpose is to suffer through this disease there is no point to try to slow it down too much. Delaying tactics until vaccination don't seem probable.
Except for the number of dead that would have remained alive with intensive care, of course.

There are only 228 intensive care beds, and a theoretical conversion capacity to around 400.  When we have that number of cases in intensive care, people start to die because of lack of intensive care.  Not just from Covid-19, but from other causes as well, because in triage -- choosing who gets the care -- misjudgements will be made.

I do believe that the Finnish path has two fatal errors.  First is the refusal to act early and strongly (and lack of enforcement of isolation).  We can't do anything about that anymore.  Second is the "finessing" of the official numbers to make this seem less dangerous than it is.  This is typical of Finns, and occurred even during the Tsernobyl incident; Finns were kept unaware of it as long as possible, because some idiots thought it would be better as people might panic otherwise.  This latter is what I think is something we could change.  Increasing the testing capacity so we had proof, so we could stop idiots from believing they can just go on as usual -- this being Somebody Elses Problem --, is the only way I see the change could happen.

TL;DR: It is the statistics from the tests that are important.  Right now, they are kept artificially low in Finland, leading to ignorance, and actually hastening the spread of the virus.  While it may help the epidemic to pass faster, a lot more people will die to lack of hospital resources that way, and not just from Covid-19, but from anything requiring intensive care resources.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 07:16:56 pm
I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better. 

The purpose is not to make you feel any better, the purpose is to quarantine you if it's the corona, so that you won't possibly infect 1000 people more.

Case study: South Korea. Look it up. They have practically won already, and they did it with extensive testing, including drive-in free test stations.

Quote
there is no point to try to slow it down too much

Slowing down have worked great in China and South Korea, and the idea is that you don't need to choose who dies and who lives, and don't need the military to dump bodies in masses in makeshift creamatories, which is now the reality in Italy. Again, look it up.

It's possible there's second wave in China and South Korea, in which case, the inconvinience comes back again. It's still easier.

You realize that if we decide not to have the inconvinience, this means approximately 200 000 dead bodies in Finland within a few weeks, and assuming you are a healthy male, you will likely be one of those called in for military service to dispose the bodies. THIS is what no one wants, THIS is why the actions are taking place. With the actions currently in place, it won't be that bad, but it will be still bad. With heavier actions, like China or South Korea, it would be much better.

So believe or not, yes, it really is mandatory to slow it down, in fact it seems no country has decided not to take any action whatsoever. Luckily you don't decide. Luckily Sale decided.

I hope you and your friends are self-quarantining already. Testing would help set you free if it's negative.
Korean and Chinese strategy was to contain it. In here at the moment we have choice left if we delay it for half a month or half a year. 100k or 50k in deaths. Option for 5k deaths went year ago.
2003 SARS was the wake-up call in Korea to make them improve their testing capacity and procedures.
 In here they would have needed to start building procedures and testing systems year ago. No doubt this is going to be our wake-up call for high capacity PCR testing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 20, 2020, 07:21:48 pm
No doubt this is going to be our wake-up call for high capacity PCR testing.

I unfortunately have some doubts.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 07:37:04 pm
There are several companies in Finland, including Aidian (https://www.aidian.fi/), that manufacture the tests in the millions, and export them.  While you do need trained technicians to run the tests, we could have crash-trained dozens of them in the past two months. 

Aidian quick-test is antibody test. Easy&Fast&Cheap but not great if  usable at all in early stages of infection. Takes something like 5 days from infection to get reasonably reliable results.
99% reliable testing is also maybe good on personal treatment level but not that great if you test 10000 infected and 100 of them pass the screen. 

They market it for  "rapid diagnosis of coronavirus pneumonia" ie when shit has hit the fan already. Pneumonia cases are probably tested even now.
What we miss is PCR testing capacity and its bit more complicated than antibody tests. Nothing impossible but not local healthcare center or "arvauskeskus" level stuff like quick tests.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 07:52:43 pm
Quote
19:37 - WHO: collapsed hospitals, it is not bad influence
«There are health systems collapsing. This is not normal, ”said Michael Ryan, WHO's executive director of the emergency health program in the usual daily briefing. “Look at intensive care in some parts of the world, completely overwhelmed. Look to the exhausted doctors and nurses. This is not normal. This is not a simple particularly negative flu season. "

source:
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_marzo_20%2Fcoronavirus-ultime-notizie-dall-italia-mondo-39828fbc-6a74-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_marzo_20%2Fcoronavirus-ultime-notizie-dall-italia-mondo-39828fbc-6a74-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml)

according to Mr. Scram (and mr Trump) this is just like flu

thousands of experts saying otherwise, tenths of studies published recently... it doesn't matter... of course those are just opinions
you can't compare those to Mr Scram facts  :-DD
Time for some nuance. Having the disease is much like the flu. It could be somewhat more lethal than regular flu percentage wise but the difference seems minor and some say selective testing may mean it's actually less lethal as most patients are never recorded. A significant amount don't get sick which seems part of the problem. Most healthy people can just sit the disease out without issue. A few will need serious intervention. This is what I said before.

What's different is that it's more infectious which leads to more infected at once. This inevitably leads to more simultaneous serious cases and deaths in less time. So far it's all still fairly equivalent to a regular flu except that the time scale is different. World wide regular flu cases are estimated to be up to 5 million and deaths are estimated to be up to and over over half a million each year but these are spread throughout at least part of the year.

Why we need to take action is the risk of overwhelming our health care due to the larger simultaneous numbers of serious cases. If that happens the position of very treatable patients becomes much more precarious. This is why we need to slow the spread of infection as this allows health care system to keep up. Stopping the spread unfortunately seems unrealistic at this point in time but with sensible precautions and preparation we can hopefully get through it with the least amount of damage. It's still going to be a stressful time for especially doctors and nurses as a year's worth of care is going to be compressed into one or two months. The flu takes a significant cut every year just as Covid 19 will take its but with considerable effort we should be able to minimise the numbers.

Flu numbers: https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/219557-overview#a6 (https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/219557-overview#a6)
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html (https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 20, 2020, 07:53:04 pm
Aidian quick-test is antibody test.
Yup, it was just an example.  A quick lookup finds companies like Abacus Diagnostica (https://www.abacusdiagnostica.com/) that do PCR testing equipment (fully automated PCR and RT-PCR).  I do not personally know these companies, only that there are quite a few internationally known ones here.

I'm certain they (not these two companies in particular, I mean all these medical diagnostics companies in Finland) could boost the Finnish testing capability rapidly, if anybody asked them.  (I suspect they have even offered, but have gotten cold shoulder from THL.  After all, THL opposes even local production of medical oxygen, because reasons...)
The problem in my opinion is, that the testing capacity is kept low intentionally, to keep statistics "unscary" = footgun.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 20, 2020, 08:02:23 pm
I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLSG-7K3Tc&t=4s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLSG-7K3Tc&t=4s)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 20, 2020, 08:07:00 pm
On the positive side, even if the results are still few and preliminary, note that Chloroquine is currently giving hope.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: donotdespisethesnake on March 20, 2020, 08:15:46 pm
Yeah, I thought we nailed this "it's just like the flu" bullshit, but denial is powerful. It's like trying to argue with Flat Earthers. Fortunately, world leaders are taking it seriously, even if it takes a week or two to get through the initial shock. The fact there is no community immunity to Covid-19 makes it completely and utterly different to seasonal flu. It's a really moronic comparison.

People waiting for "all the facts" before taking it seriously will find health systems totally overwhelmed well before they see people near them dying. This is NOT about individual risk but risk to society as a whole. What people don't realise is that health systems assume that 99.99% of the population are healthy enough not to need critical care. Better not need any critical care in the near future, there will be a very long queue.

And now cue more denial in 3..2..1..  :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 08:16:18 pm
I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLSG-7K3Tc&t=4s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLSG-7K3Tc&t=4s)
COVID-19 affecting people with vulnerable lungs more than a regular flu doesn't seem disputed. Smoking does a number on pretty much everything in your body. It'd be interesting to see whether the statistics show that smoking in itself means being at increased risk from COVID-19.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 20, 2020, 08:18:58 pm
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 08:21:28 pm
Yeah, I thought we nailed this "it's just like the flu" bullshit, but denial is powerful. It's like trying to argue with Flat Earthers. Fortunately, world leaders are taking it seriously, even if it takes a week or two to get through the initial shock. The fact there is no community immunity to Covid-19 makes it completely and different to seasonal flu. It's a really moronic comparison.

People waiting for "all the facts" before taking it seriously will find health systems totally overwhelmed well before they see people near them dying. This is NOT about individual risk but society. What people don't realise is that health systems assume that 99.99% of the population are healthy enough not to need critical care. Better not need any critical care in the near future, there will be a very long queue.

And now cue more denial in 3..2..1..  :palm:
You really need to strip what is actually said of all nuance to get to where you suppose we are.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 08:24:13 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxPraNBhbvA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxPraNBhbvA)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 20, 2020, 08:24:25 pm
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.

And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 20, 2020, 08:30:13 pm
On the positive side, even if the results are still few and preliminary, note that Chloroquine is currently giving hope.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-announces-potential-game-changer-drugs-treat-covid19/story?id=69693560

Quote
"Those are two that are out now, essentially approved for prescribed use," Trump said of the antiviral drug Remsdesivir, which has never been approved by the FDA for any disease, and the drug chloroquine, which has only been approved to treat malaria and some arthritis -- neither is approved for COVID-19.

"And I think it's going to be very exciting. I think it could be a game changer. And maybe not. Maybe not, but I think it could be, based on what I see, it could be a game changer. Very powerful, they’re very powerful," he said.

Joking apart, the Remsdesivir is currently tested on a pretty critical covid patient in Prague..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 08:34:20 pm
I feel a large part of the reason some people get upset by comparing COVID-19 to a regular flu is that they may severely underestimate the actual impact of the flu. People may view it as a disease which you sit out which is true in many cases, but don't really consider the millions of patients and many thousands of deaths every year despite considerable efforts to combat it. COVID-19 isn't compared to the flu because it's nothing. It is compared because of many similarities and our experience fighting it, though there obviously are relevant differences too.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 20, 2020, 09:06:52 pm
I feel a large part of the reason some people get upset by comparing COVID-19 to a regular flu is that they may severely underestimate the actual impact of the flu. People may view it as a disease which you sit out which is true in many cases, but don't really consider the millions of patients and many thousands of deaths every year despite considerable efforts to combat it. COVID-19 isn't compared to the flu because it's nothing. It is compared because of many similarities and our experience fighting it, though there obviously are relevant differences too.
:palm: I don't get why you insist on denying the major difference between the flu and Covid19. Covid19 causes pneumonia / ARDS which requires a far more extensive treatment compared to the flu. Sure flu kills people too but in most cases these are people who are already weakened and thus are close to death anyway. OTOH Covid19 also seriously affects healthy people due to the pneumonia / ARDS. This shouldn't need explaining with all the information already presented.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kleinstein on March 20, 2020, 09:12:57 pm
The Spanish flu some 100 years ago was pretty nasty and devastating - let us hope it does not get that bad. So it depends on which flu season one compares. A big difference with the flu is that at least the medical personal is usually vaccinated. So treatment in the hospitals is much easier - much less personal and masks needed. Still the death toll from the regular flu can be pretty high, but it is largely unnoticed as is does not overwhelm the medical system so easy. Most of the years the flu shot is pretty effective so the spread is slowed down and limited.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 20, 2020, 09:26:31 pm
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.

And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it.

This was also theorized about the imbalance in women vs. men in critical condition in Wuhan. Smoking appears to be a predominantly male treat in China.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 20, 2020, 09:28:34 pm
This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 09:29:03 pm
:palm: I don't get why you insist on denying the major difference between the flu and Covid19. Covid19 causes pneumonia / ARDS which requires a far more extensive treatment compared to the flu. Sure flu kills people too but in most cases these are people who are already weakened and thus are close to death anyway. OTOH Covid19 also seriously affects healthy people due to the pneumonia / ARDS. This shouldn't need explaining with all the information already presented.
I just discussed lungs being affected differently a few posts ago. COVID-19 doesn't seem to affect healthy people on a significant scale. Younger healthy people don't fall very ill or have something which looks a lot like a regular flu with a nasty cough. The vast majority of serious cases and deaths are in China were the 70 plus age bracket and people with pre-existing conditions. Western numbers seem to show similar patterns. There are exceptions as there are with flu. When people do get seriously ill they can need ventilation which indeed is a difference.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 09:30:30 pm
This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...
We don't want to slow it to flu like speed either as that facilitates endless loops of infection. Not that we really have to worry about that now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 20, 2020, 09:31:13 pm
Up until a couple of years ago I rarely if ever got sick or even caught a cold but last year I was struck with the flu and suffered terribly in isolation for a few weeks. I tried everything at the time including Tamiflu but couldn't shake it off and really don't want to go through that experience again.   ::)

I already have heart disease, vascular disease and respiratory problems so am not looking forward to catching this new virus at all. Unfortunately the people around here still don't seem to understand as they continue to attend at the local supermarket like it's an opportunity for a social gathering.   :o       
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 09:54:26 pm
Look at the silver lining.
If you catch  it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".

Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.

As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.
I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 20, 2020, 09:58:18 pm
Up until a couple of years ago I rarely if ever got sick or even caught a cold but last year I was struck with the flu and suffered terribly in isolation for a few weeks. I tried everything at the time including Tamiflu but couldn't shake it off and really don't want to go through that experience again.   ::)

I already have heart disease, vascular disease and respiratory problems so am not looking forward to catching this new virus at all. Unfortunately the people around here still don't seem to understand as they continue to attend at the local supermarket like it's an opportunity for a social gathering.   :o       

Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 10:00:11 pm
COVID-19 doesn't seem to affect healthy people on a significant scale. Younger healthy people don't fall very ill or have something which looks a lot like a regular flu with a nasty cough.

That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment.  I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rdl on March 20, 2020, 10:00:40 pm
In 1998 I came down with something, probably some variety of flu, that was very bad. For 3 days I could barely breath or get out of bed. I dreaded needing to pee. I was a 2+ pack a day smoker. On the fourth day it seemed to break. I woke up feeling a lot better. I could get up and walk around okay. Of course, not having had a cigarette in days, one of the first things I did was go out on the balcony for a smoke. The first drag nearly killed me. I literally fell to the ground gasping for breath. I never smoked again.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 20, 2020, 10:03:31 pm
Look at the silver lining.
If you catch  it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".

Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.

As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.
I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?

When you look at the recent Italian statistics on fatalities I posted above you may see the covid19 does not kill you actually, but those "pre-existing conditions".. There is a detailed list with % in Italy as of March 17th.
Deaths without any PECs are rare actually.
Obesity usually implies diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular, respiratory, etc. all those are mentioned in that report as the killers.

PS: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2972926/#msg2972926 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2972926/#msg2972926)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 20, 2020, 10:08:10 pm
Look at the silver lining.
If you catch  it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".

Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.

As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.
I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?
When you look at the recent Italian statistics on fatalities I posted above you may see the covid19 does not kill you actually, but those "pre-existing conditions".. There is a detailed list with % in Italy as of March 17th.
Deaths without any PECs are rare actually.
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 10:10:58 pm
That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment.  I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.
Equating hospitalization for flu and Covid is likely to lead to skewed results. People are used to flu but extreme caution was and is taken with Covid. Add to that the likely large number of unreported cases and the hospitalization rate becomes a very loose number. We'll likely learn more about the actual rates or at least better estimates when thing have calmed down and things are looked at more carefully.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 20, 2020, 10:14:55 pm
..But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?

These "5 younger ones" below could live another 30 years when treated properly in the Mayo Clinic, would it fit the semantic discussion?

Quote
To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular, 5 of these were less than 40 and they were all male people aged between 31 and 39 with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 10:18:38 pm
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
One can also ask how long they would have lived if they didn't have pre-existing conditions. Judging by the numbers the overwhelming majority would likely have been fine. This virus seems to bring any existing cracks to light. Regardless, it seems sensible to count them as Covid deaths but as far as I can tell that's happening.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on March 20, 2020, 10:41:21 pm
I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.
COVID-19 affecting people with vulnerable lungs more than a regular flu doesn't seem disputed. Smoking does a number on pretty much everything in your body. It'd be interesting to see whether the statistics show that smoking in itself means being at increased risk from COVID-19.
Not much time/data for quality epidemiological works (that I could find), but a lesser quality reference to start with:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)
Cardiovascular disease isn't a death sentence when combined with COVID-19, but greatly increases the impact.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 10:42:25 pm
That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment.  I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.
Equating hospitalization for flu and Covid is likely to lead to skewed results. People are used to flu but extreme caution was and is taken with Covid. Add to that the likely large number of unreported cases and the hospitalization rate becomes a very loose number. We'll likely learn more about the actual rates or at least better estimates when thing have calmed down and things are looked at more carefully.

Aww c'mon. Do you really think that the criteria for "seriously ill enough to need a hospital bed" are going to be downgraded from an abundance of caution at a time when there is pressure on hospital beds?

I think at this point it's becoming pretty clear that you want to believe this to be less serious then it is and you're not going to be convinced by the pretty conclusive evidence that we've already seen that this is an order of magnitude more serious than seasonal flu.

Taking a reasoned, proportioned reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, based on facts, is one thing. It helps no one if people's reaction to this gets out of proportion. Downplaying it to the point of near denial of how serious the situation is, is just as unhelpful in the other direction.

This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 20, 2020, 10:48:39 pm
Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.
I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance.   >:D   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 20, 2020, 11:06:34 pm
.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
There is also a parameter called "viral load".
An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.."
How the viral load could affect those calculations?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on March 20, 2020, 11:07:20 pm
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
One can also ask how long they would have lived if they didn't have pre-existing conditions. Judging by the numbers the overwhelming majority would likely have been fine. This virus seems to bring any existing cracks to light. Regardless, it seems sensible to count them as Covid deaths but as far as I can tell that's happening.
Years of potential life lost will need lots more data and research to settle on, but historically (in Australia) deaths from Influenza claimed 4 years of life on average which is right down at the low end with things like heart disease (also 4 years). Contrast against the publicised/emotive examples:
Childbirth, 48 years
Accidental Drowning in Swimming Pools, 46 years
Transport Accidents, 34 years
Suicide, 34 years
Breast Cancer, 11 years
Digestive Cancers, 7 years
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 20, 2020, 11:18:55 pm
Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ...  :-+ :clap:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w)

Something not right here. Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's. Notice all the carefully selected scenery is modern and clean. Heaps of red army style saluting going on. All these exhausted doctors are all laughing and happy. They would be suffering from exhaustion in reality, and they would be emotional wrecks after they have witnessed so much misery. Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.

The first casualty of war is the truth.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 20, 2020, 11:24:03 pm
but western doctors wear masks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 20, 2020, 11:31:07 pm
Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.
I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance.   >:D
Nowadays someone could make a fortune from sweat smell perfume!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 20, 2020, 11:34:45 pm
Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.

The first casualty of war is the truth.
Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 20, 2020, 11:39:41 pm
We have been told by doctors here masks worn by the public do nothing unless the wearer has the virus. I went shopping yesterday in a shopping centre, and except for one westerner the only people wearing marks were Chinese. Maybe we have been fed :bullshit: by our government too because they did not want a run on masks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 11:46:18 pm
.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
There is also a parameter called "viral load".
An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.."
How the viral load could affect those calculations?

It doesn't. R0 and case fatality ratio may be an effect of viral load, but they measure end points that might be affected by viral load not something that you can then add a 'viral load' factor to.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 11:54:55 pm
Aww c'mon. Do you really think that the criteria for "seriously ill enough to need a hospital bed" are going to be downgraded from an abundance of caution at a time when there is pressure on hospital beds?

I think at this point it's becoming pretty clear that you want to believe this to be less serious then it is and you're not going to be convinced by the pretty conclusive evidence that we've already seen that this is an order of magnitude more serious than seasonal flu.

Taking a reasoned, proportioned reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, based on facts, is one thing. It helps no one if people's reaction to this gets out of proportion. Downplaying it to the point of near denial of how serious the situation is, is just as unhelpful in the other direction.

This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
It's unfortunate people seem to be misconstruing my words. Anyone who thinks I'm of the opinion we don't have a very serious situation on our hands and need to act with conviction is gravely mistaken. This is reflected by my behaviour in real life as well. I'm doing my part.

That being said, some people are treating this as an outbreak with very little chance of survival. Instead, the vast majority of cases will resemble a minor to a severe flu without requiring treatment. The large number of simultaneous infections and the treatment of the most severe infections is the issue. It goes without saying Covid 19 isn't exactly like the flu as it's not the flu and we wouldn't be discussing it if it was. The reality is that we're not all going to die and the vast majority will be fine, but also a non trivial amount of people will die. This unfortunately isn't entirely unlike the flu either. Our efforts will decide how many preventable deaths will occur.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 20, 2020, 11:55:18 pm
The video is propaganda :bullshit:.

The first casualty of war is the truth.

Of course it is propaganda. Being propaganda does not necessarily imply untruth. Was Allied WWII propaganda untrue? In the most part no.

You, from reading many of your postings over the years, are clearly an ideologue. Ideology and propaganda are firm bedfellows. Does that mean we should treat every thing you say as propaganda and therefore untrue? No, and no.

The problem here is that you are dealing with a government and ideology that are strongly at odds with your own ideology. That tends to be a bit denting to objectivity and truthiness too.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 20, 2020, 11:59:57 pm
Others have pointed out the distinction made by the Italian statistics, but let me add that even in today's conference by the "Protezione Civile", Roberto Bernabei, specialist in geriatry, said that of the first 355 clinical documentations analyzed resulted that "only 3 patients died FOR coronavirus", all the others dies WITH coronavirus. I mean, I understand when they did that pantomime  the first and second week, to try sugarcoat the pill, but now...

A member of the press asked why there is such a big difference in mortality (or letality - it's the press) between Italy and Germany and the answer was on the line of 'we don't know how these deaths are classified". Now, it's possible the the German had small clusters promptly identified and isolated and that extensive testing of nonsymptomatic patients is keeping the count down, but back in february when Italy had run 20 thousand tests, only 2000 were positive. Where were all those asymptomatic ninjas?
Also, do you believe Iran is giving the right number of deaths?

But, aside from this, my point is that it's the media that is making this distinction, namely that you don't die of Covid-19. You die of other illnesses and covid-19 just give old farts with a foot in the grave the coup-de-grace.
And you can see this is the message that goes to the masses and is surfacing in this very forum as well.

It kills old people with preexisting conditions.

WHOOOOOO, SPRING BREAK!!! LET'S PARTYYYYYYEEEEAHHHHHHH!!!

Let me ask you something: how many people over sixty has a preexisting condition that can result in death from covid-19?
The worldometer website at the time om writing reports 4032 deaths. Are you saying these are exclusively healthy people with no pre-existing conditions and that when those are included the number is much higher?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 21, 2020, 12:03:25 am
Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.

The first casualty of war is the truth.
Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.

Having been involved in building and electrical work in hospitals may years ago I know that a lot of specification goes on that you wouldn't see in commercial premises. Are surfaces easily sterilized, can electrical outlets be sterilized. Anything that can trap dust is a no no - there are brackets for electrical conduit know in the trade as 'hospital brackets' that stand proud enough from surfaces that the conduit can be cleaned all around. And so on, and so on.

On the other hand, if there's anybody who thinks that the Chinese Government is going to pass up any propaganda opportunities that present themselves, that they are not going to exaggerate and put the best face on everything they possibly can is woefully naïve. That said, don't think that Voice of America or other western propaganda channels would behave in any more saintly manner.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 21, 2020, 12:10:12 am
The worldometer website at the time om writing reports 4032 deaths. Are you saying these are exclusively healthy people with no pre-existing conditions and that when those are included the number is much higher?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/)

You clearly did not understand anything of what I wrote.
I am just curious: do you happen to own a red baseball hat?

At any rate, what you clearly do not understand is that who should worry of being at risk of dying is not the average citizen (because of the 3.4% lethality, or let's say 1%), but the Country's health systems (for which the lethality is 20%).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 21, 2020, 12:10:45 am
We have been told by doctors here masks worn by the public do nothing unless the wearer has the virus. I went shopping yesterday in a shopping centre, and except for one westerner the only people wearing marks were Chinese.
Maybe we have been fed :bullshit: by our government too because they did not want a run on masks.


They probably don't want a run on any sort of public hard 'thinking' either,
especially how they are researching, verifying and handling things  ???

It's the same here too in Melbourne/MelboRRRne CBD and beyond.
Just about 100% 99% of anyone that looks/is chinese are masked,
most pulling/pushing on wheeled luggage to who knows where.. or why  :-//

yet NO ONE else bothers with masks, nor battles with luggage on lumpy bitumen  :D
 
afaict: the non mask wearers sort of 'look' happier, maybe because they're not breathing back their own bad breath? 
 


Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.
I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance.   >:D

Spray some Glen20 first to sanitize the area and help pump along the torch flames too   >:D

Try not to cook any slabs of dunny paper the fleeing hoarder idiots drop,
to cover your torch gas expense, time and effort  :-+

 


One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.



They haven't had years of FEAR MONGERING pumped into them yet by TV, news, movies, poor education, 'end of the world' (again..?) gossip/rumors, generic ignorance etc

Give them time, they'll get there just like we did,

and like us they can choose whether to be civil and exercise concern and courtesy during a panic show,

or become low life 'look after #1' attitude dunny paper hoarders,
that only think about their own family's pampered rear ends
and kcuf everyone else


These are the weighty human trash a pressured captain should consider to toss overboard FIRST, to keep a sinking ship afloat longer  :popcorn:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 21, 2020, 12:21:10 am
I am just curious: do you happen to own a red baseball hat?

Now keep it civil, he's clearly not that deluded.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 21, 2020, 12:41:13 am
I am just curious: do you happen to own a red baseball hat?

Now keep it civil, he's clearly not that deluded.

Nothing wrong with my Cardinals hat!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 21, 2020, 12:53:19 am
Nothing wrong with my Cardinals hat!

You have my sympathy. (Hoping that this joke works for American team supporters the same way that it does for British team supporters)  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 21, 2020, 01:44:27 am
.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
There is also a parameter called "viral load".
An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.."
How the viral load could affect those calculations?

It doesn't. R0 and case fatality ratio may be an effect of viral load, but they measure end points that might be affected by viral load not something that you can then add a 'viral load' factor to.

I don't know the reference you referred to (if you meant that there is one) or if it was just from a talk. No comment either on the hyperbole or conclusions (same load with flu....). I think that is more complicated - certainly more complicated for me.

What I think that is very important is that the emerging picture is that asymptomatic folks (or folks with very mild symptoms) can be carrying around a similar viral load as symptomatic folks. Intuitively, that means that they are infectious (this is the load estimate in the upper respiratory tract).

Please, don't jump on me and say that everyone knows this already. In fact, hard data like the cases that appeared yesterday in this NEJM letter are not yet so commonplace and the report is only from one asymptomatic case and seventeen systematic symptomatic cases. This is anecdotal in contrast to a controlled study. IOW they analyzed swabs from patients during treatment - the asymptomatic guy was swabbed and tracked because of a contact association, if I read correctly.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737)

For TL;DR, reluctantly, two short quotes are below, but reading the short report is a good idea in my view (how many times have you said - Read the ^%$#*& data sheet? Same idea :).

Patient Z reported no clinical symptoms, but his nasal swabs (cycle threshold [Ct] values, 22 to 28) and throat swabs (Ct values, 30 to 32) tested positive on days 7, 10, and 11 after contact.


The viral load that was detected in the asymptomatic patient was similar to that in the symptomatic patients, which suggests the transmission potential of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patients. These findings are in concordance with reports that transmission may occur early in the course of infection5 and suggest that case detection and isolation may require strategies different from those required for the control of SARS-CoV. How SARS-CoV-2 viral load correlates with culturable virus needs to be determined.


Reference # 5 is https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32003551?dopt=Abstract (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32003551?dopt=Abstract)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 21, 2020, 02:24:35 am
....only because laughter can help get through tough times....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xn2cBCQgPzI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xn2cBCQgPzI)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 06:16:52 am
The Spanish flu some 100 years ago was pretty nasty and devastating - let us hope it does not get that bad. So it depends on which flu season one compares. A big difference with the flu is that at least the medical personal is usually vaccinated. So treatment in the hospitals is much easier - much less personal and masks needed. Still the death toll from the regular flu can be pretty high, but it is largely unnoticed as is does not overwhelm the medical system so easy. Most of the years the flu shot is pretty effective so the spread is slowed down and limited.

most deaths were not caused by the virus itself, in many cases they were bacteria (we had to wait until WW II for penicillin) in many other cases it was even just aspirin overdose

reference: Salicylates and Pandemic Influenza Mortality, 1918–1919 Pharmacology, Pathology, and Historic Evidence (https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/49/9/1405/301441)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 06:24:42 am
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.

And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it.

Some doctor said it might be related to that missing leg in the XY chromosomes.

that mainly affects life expectancy... it is also reversed in species where sex is determined by chromosomes difference in females (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZW_sex-determination_system)

apart from smoke I read some think better survival rates depend on estrogen hormones
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 06:42:01 am
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?

no need to worry about that
climate change deniers were not enough... we just got a new category of deniers...  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 06:47:04 am
Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ...  :-+ :clap:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w)

Something not right here. Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's. Notice all the carefully selected scenery is modern and clean. Heaps of red army style saluting going on. All these exhausted doctors are all laughing and happy. They would be suffering from exhaustion in reality, and they would be emotional wrecks after they have witnessed so much misery. Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.

The first casualty of war is the truth.

of course that is also a form of propaganda, but medical staff exhaustion is over since days if not weeks as new cases have been lower and lower for a while
stop looking for evil plots
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 21, 2020, 09:13:11 am
The video linked below was just shown here on a current affairs program and it was a good reminder to me of just how much I hate staying in hospitals. This video also gives a good indication of what the doctors and nursing staff are currently up against in regards to the virus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tPdyB0W9lY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tPdyB0W9lY)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 21, 2020, 09:36:39 am
Let me ask you something: how many people over sixty has a preexisting condition that can result in death from covid-19?

In countries with a healthy way of life the number will be lower and vice versa.

Go to this page

https://www.who.int/nmh/countries/en/ (https://www.who.int/nmh/countries/en/)

select your country and you'll get the WHO statistics on the Civilization Diseases which maps to the pre-existing conditions almost directly.

Below an example USA vs Japan.

PS: Smoking, Obesity and Hypertension are indicated as the key factors with this pandemic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 21, 2020, 09:57:33 am
of course that is also a form of propaganda, but medical staff exhaustion is over since days if not weeks as new cases have been lower and lower for a while
stop looking for evil plots

Since you are using Italian flag, just curious as these are not covered mostly by western news agencies.

Is it true China have sent medical teams and also medical supplies to Italy to help ? Or its just another lie ?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 21, 2020, 10:13:28 am
We have been told by doctors here masks worn by the public do nothing unless the wearer has the virus. I went shopping yesterday in a shopping centre, and except for one westerner the only people wearing marks were Chinese. Maybe we have been fed :bullshit: by our government too because they did not want a run on masks.

It's not going to hurt you either and it may prevent the occasional contamination when you stand close to a sneezing person, for example. However, you have to realize that a mask is just that: a mask. If you keep 1m-1.5m distances at all times and no contact, it won't change much. You can easily get contaminated by so many other direct sources: touching people, public or shared things you touch, ATMs, shoes, etc. if somehow contamination makes it to your face, mouth, eyes or nose. So the real risk is there. If masks are available, sure, why not, but don't let it give you a false sense of security. Isolation and hygiene/disinfection are as important, if not more.

The problem is that when the whole population buys masks, the people really at very high risk like the healthcare workers may run out of supplies. This is what happened in Belgium, aside from a political mistake with a masks order, and people were asked to bring all those masks to the hospitals and doctors. I've handed over 10 FFP3 which I've had left for technical purposes, to doctors, and they were very happy with it. But yes, it's sad they have to come and beg the population instead of prepare properly. As one doctor here said, the CoVid-19 is more of a big logistics problem than a medical one, even though pulmonary specialists said what they saw on medical images really worried them more and more. But due to failing logistics, the problem eventually becomes medical.

This is what an Italian doctor has written to media and colleagues. He also made a video on his IC unit, which I will not post here due to the graphic images it contains. I share pain with the Italian people. Italy has suffered more than 600 deaths in the last 24 hrs.

Quote

It’s a nightmare. It really feels like being in a war field. Just today 4 patients died in my unit. Patients are continuously transferred to the critical area of the crisis unit or to the intensive care unit.

Dozens of patients arrive from the ER and you put them in the empty beds that you’ve just cleared with the transfers, in the best option. The suspected COVID19 patients are allocated right away with the frankly positive patients because you don't really have the chance, resources or the time to run the test or wait for its result.

The patients that die are put in horrible black bags and brought immediately to the obituary. From the obituary they're sent right away to the crematorium. It all happens under the eyes of the other perfectly awake COVID19 patients who are still breathing with some respiratory support. These patients are forced to witness what might happen to them within few hours because there are no curtains to pull to avoid this psychological torture. COVID19 patients die alone and they see it coming with fierce rawness.

At the end of the shift you have to call the families and give them an update, too often it's a notice of where they might find the ashes of their beloved ones. It's excruciating.

I never thought I'd have to live through something like this. I feel lost, I'm terrified.


I hope this is enough for some to take this extremely seriously. Maybe not all reports make it to the other side of the globe, but this is real.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 21, 2020, 10:28:47 am
This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...

I fail to see the problem here. If or when the second wave comes, the society has already learnt how to suppress it. People have had months of time to carefully build their own stock of food to reduce unnecessary shopping. People have already set up connections for remote work. Everything's set. Yes, it's uncomfortable, again, but less than before. Each new wave is easier than the previous ones. And what's best, each wave has its peak regulated not to severely exceed the capacity of ICUs.

There still isn't second wave in China. I fail to see how you could suppress the spread "too much"; fairly theoretical extreme. The opposite, suppressing too little seems to be an actual problem.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 21, 2020, 10:32:55 am

Doctors practices and their receptionists EVERYWHERE here have been deluged and bombarded constantly by closet hypochondriac IDIOTS on the phone, and popping up in person without appointments,
thinking their usual ailments may have mutated into corona symptoms,
and DEMAND miracles, forcing overstressed staff to resort to sweet talk to get them out the door ASAP,
and back home in front of their satellite pumped TVs again, freaking out at the 24/7 internationale scare tactic news reports   :scared:  :bullshit: :scared:

I'll bet these losers and their relatives are the majority of dunny paper hoarders too  >:(

Selfish idiots like that can't leave this Earth soon enough..  :phew:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 21, 2020, 11:49:09 am
This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...

I fail to see the problem here. If or when the second wave comes, the society has already learnt how to suppress it. People have had months of time to carefully build their own stock of food to reduce unnecessary shopping. People have already set up connections for remote work. Everything's set. Yes, it's uncomfortable, again, but less than before. Each new wave is easier than the previous ones. And what's best, each wave has its peak regulated not to severely exceed the capacity of ICUs.

There still isn't second wave in China. I fail to see how you could suppress the spread "too much"; fairly theoretical extreme. The opposite, suppressing too little seems to be an actual problem.
I think we have to watch what happens in China and Korea (I trust the numbers from the latter most) to see what happens to the number of deaths. It seems Korea is moving towards a flattened curve but it will take another week before you can reach a solid conclusion.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on March 21, 2020, 11:57:00 am
Great video from Kurzgesagt as usual:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY&t=0s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY&t=0s)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 21, 2020, 01:26:26 pm
First death in Finland (as of yesterday).

The attachment shows new identified infections (i.e., delta to the previous day). Guess when the limitations in testing started ::).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: GlennSprigg on March 21, 2020, 01:26:42 pm
An Australian woman stuck in Italy, made this most apt comment!!!...
(Regarding the elderly in nursing homes etc)

Our elderly parents & grandparents went to war overseas in trenches, fighting for us.
All 'WE' have to do at the moment, is stay with our arses on the Lounge, to protect them!!
8)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 21, 2020, 02:40:54 pm
I fail to see the problem here. If or when the second wave comes, the society has already learnt how to suppress it. People have had months of time to carefully build their own stock of food to reduce unnecessary shopping. People have already set up connections for remote work. Everything's set. Yes, it's uncomfortable, again, but less than before. Each new wave is easier than the previous ones. And what's best, each wave has its peak regulated not to severely exceed the capacity of ICUs.

Except for follow-on effects, like everyone else that has jobs that you can't "do from home" is screwed again (or still) with many businesses simply unable to continue and closing permanently.  The carnage left in it's wake will be far, far worse than the virus itself causes health-wise.

Quote
There still isn't second wave in China. I fail to see how you could suppress the spread "too much"; fairly theoretical extreme. The opposite, suppressing too little seems to be an actual problem.

Indeed.

The reason China has the transmission down to 0 is they haven't really even started lifting most restrictions.  Most people in the most highly affected areas are still under total lockdown.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 21, 2020, 02:53:03 pm
The problem is that when the whole population buys masks, the people really at very high risk like the healthcare workers may run out of supplies.

This!

I'm quite certain that if there were actually an abundant supply of masks, most public health officials would be advising that everyone wear one.  This is not so much for the wearer to prevent becoming infected, rather to help curtail the spread from those that may not even know they're spreading it.

Public health officials here are correct, in that we really all should be acting like we each already have the virus when interacting with others to help limit the spread from those without obvious symptoms.

I found it very striking that one of the first things that the Dr. from the Chinese Red Cross team that is in Italy now to help give guidance to the government said in his statement was basically, "You're doing this all wrong!  You're not restricting people nearly enough!  Your mass transit is still running!  Why is everyone not wearing masks?!"

Edit: Found the actual quote:
Quote
Chinese Red Cross Vice President Sun Shuopeng warned Italians that they were risking lives by not adhering to the novel coronavirus lockdown. He made the comments after visiting Milan in the hardest-hit region of Italy, which has recorded 41,035 cases and 3,405 deaths. “Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by COVID-19, the lockdown measures are very lax,” the veteran of the Wuhan epidemic fight said Thursday. “I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masks.” Sun warned that the resistance to the lockdown will prove deadly. “I don’t know what people here are thinking. We really have to stop our usual economic activities and our usual human interactions. We have to stay at home and make every effort to save lives. It is worth putting every cost we have into saving lives.”
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 21, 2020, 03:07:27 pm
The reason China has the transmission down to 0 is they haven't really even started lifting most restrictions.  Most people in the most highly affected areas are still under total lockdown.

I think, from blueskull's comments passim, that they aren't now under "total lockdown" but people's movements are still being tightly controlled and monitored. Going to work is happening where it can, but you aren't being allowed to do whatever the Chinese equivalent of "having a swift half after work*" is.

*For those not au fait with British drinking culture, a quick drink after work with one's colleagues which typically runs to more than the "half" pint of beer implied in the phrase but isn't intended to run to a "proper session".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 21, 2020, 03:16:00 pm
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.

And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it.

Some doctor said it might be related to that missing leg in the XY chromosomes.

that mainly affects life expectancy... it is also reversed in species where sex is determined by chromosomes difference in females (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZW_sex-determination_system)

apart from smoke I read some think better survival rates depend on estrogen hormones
I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 21, 2020, 03:18:47 pm
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.

They haven't had years of FEAR MONGERING pumped into them yet by TV, news, movies, poor education, 'end of the world' (again..?) gossip/rumors, generic ignorance etc

Give them time, they'll get there just like we did,

and like us they can choose whether to be civil and exercise concern and courtesy during a panic show,

or become low life 'look after #1' attitude dunny paper hoarders,
that only think about their own family's pampered rear ends
and kcuf everyone else

That's cute, but the point was a serious one. What's the reason?

Thinking of that, we already know that some viral diseases that are typically caught by kids can be a lot more dangerous when caught by adults, like chickenpox. Interestingly, chichenpox is also an airborne disease.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 04:23:23 pm
the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)

Quote
"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.

they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU

EDIT
as imo made us notice (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2975326/#msg2975326) it just was a misunderstanding
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 04:32:12 pm
the Decathlon diving mask turns into a respirator (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fit.businessinsider.com%2Fisinnova-maschere-snorkeling-terapia-intensiva%2F)

(https://cdn.gelestatic.it/businessinsider/it/2020/03/maschera-1024x1024.jpeg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 21, 2020, 04:33:35 pm
Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.

The first casualty of war is the truth.
Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.
Having been involved in building and electrical work in hospitals may years ago I know that a lot of specification goes on that you wouldn't see in commercial premises. Are surfaces easily sterilized, can electrical outlets be sterilized. Anything that can trap dust is a no no - there are brackets for electrical conduit know in the trade as 'hospital brackets' that stand proud enough from surfaces that the conduit can be cleaned all around. And so on, and so on.
For a permanent hospital those are obvious requirements. In case of emergency anything goes. I just read some news articles that hotels and dorm rooms are being converted into temporary hospitals. In the Netherlands they moved the maternity department of a hospital to a hotel.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 21, 2020, 04:45:14 pm
Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.
Having been involved in building and electrical work in hospitals may years ago I know that a lot of specification goes on that you wouldn't see in commercial premises. Are surfaces easily sterilized, can electrical outlets be sterilized. Anything that can trap dust is a no no - there are brackets for electrical conduit know in the trade as 'hospital brackets' that stand proud enough from surfaces that the conduit can be cleaned all around. And so on, and so on.
For a permanent hospital those are obvious requirements. In case of emergency anything goes. I just read some news articles that hotels and dorm rooms are being converted into temporary hospitals. In the Netherlands they moved the maternity department of a hospital to a hotel.

If I understood correctly, the idea was that the Chinese predicted when the peak demand in intensive care is going to be, and being prepared early, they could build something which is inbetween a really proper hospital, and a makeshift temporary hospital converted from something else. The details matter, and you can get many details right (even if not all) when you have a week to design and another to build. If you are super efficient, at least.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 21, 2020, 05:12:37 pm
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.

What makes the West correct?

As I said in another post, this is indeed bullshit, mainly motivated by the fact we just don't have enough masks for everyone. The only true fact is that basic surgical masks are ineffective to protect oneself, and only effective to protect others. Which is already better than nothing if you have to get out, at least to protect others just in case (let's remind everyone that you may carry the virus with absolutely no symptom, which is the worst case as no one can guess)... But FFP2 masks are known to be effective (at least for 3 to 4 hours.)

That was what was also said in France until a couple days ago where officials were forced to admit that there was a very severe shortage of masks (due to a series of past decisions) and that we would do anything we can from now on to correct the situation. I appreciate they admitted it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 21, 2020, 05:57:06 pm

I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
Read somewhere that so far the muslim population in UK has been hit hardest. Like 10x infections  or something.
Extended families with grandparents living under the same roof and eating habits like sharing the same plate of food among family members.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 21, 2020, 06:09:49 pm
the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)

Quote
"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.

they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU

If the Czeck goverment turn themselves in "Red Gorilla" with the motto "Expropiese",worse for them. An advise,here, the "Front Popular goverment" are doing confiscations the masks and other medical items. Sellers and distribuitors don't want import any  medical item to Spain by fearing to confiscation.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fmundo%2Feuropa%2F2020-03-18%2Fmascarillas-coronavirus-covid-19-china-espana_2503191%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fmundo%2Feuropa%2F2020-03-18%2Fmascarillas-coronavirus-covid-19-china-espana_2503191%2F)

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.diaridetarragona.com%2Feconomia%2FSuspenden-un-pedido-de-mascarillas-en-Alcover-a-causa-de-las-incautaciones-20200320-0002.html (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.diaridetarragona.com%2Feconomia%2FSuspenden-un-pedido-de-mascarillas-en-Alcover-a-causa-de-las-incautaciones-20200320-0002.html)

"The capital is like a kid, if you scare him, this run away and hide himself"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 21, 2020, 06:12:39 pm
the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)

Quote
"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.

they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU

Few days back a seller offered masks to CZ Ministry of Health for an unusually high price, stocked in CZ. Ministry declined and informed police.

Police seized the complete stock of 680k masks according to the current "CZ law in state of emergency" and the Ministry paid the seller the usual price.

Police investigated the case and found out 101k masks from that stock were a donation from the Red Cross of Qingtian City of China's Zhejiang province to Chinese expatriates in Italy.

CZ and Zhejiang province is organizing the replacement.

http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm (http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm)

Edit: typos
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 21, 2020, 06:27:39 pm

I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
Read somewhere that so far the muslim population in UK has been hit hardest. Like 10x infections  or something.
Extended families with grandparents living under the same roof and eating habits like sharing the same plate of food among family members.

Likely to be bullshit propaganda put out by some nut-job who wants to cast Muslims in a bad light.

I live in one of, if not the, the most Muslim boroughs in the country (32% of population) and there are, as of now, 42 officially confirmed cases (irrespective of religion etc. etc) out of 350,000 people in the borough (12/100,000), a comparable rate to other London boroughs. Our (less densely populated) neighbour Essex  has 2.92 cases/100,000 and 0.3% Muslims, the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea (richest, and probably the 'whitest' London borough - over 70% white) 42.2 cases/100,000. Based on that, it's clearly rich white folks who are the hotbed of disease.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: daqq on March 21, 2020, 06:33:26 pm
Something not right here. Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.
There is some conflicting information on this, but most sources I have read seem to agree that a  mask can help problematic stuff both ways.

While it's not complete protection, it's still better than nothing. Also, masks need not be of the highest type to help. See:

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 21, 2020, 06:38:29 pm

I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
Read somewhere that so far the muslim population in UK has been hit hardest. Like 10x infections  or something.
Extended families with grandparents living under the same roof and eating habits like sharing the same plate of food among family members.

Likely to be bullshit propaganda put out by some nut-job who wants to cast Muslims in a bad light.

I live in one of, if not the, the most Muslim boroughs in the country (32% of population) and there are, as of now, 42 officially confirmed cases (irrespective of religion etc. etc) out of 350,000 people in the borough (12/100,000), a comparable rate to other London boroughs. Our (less densely populated) neighbour Essex  has 2.92 cases/100,000 and 0.3% Muslims, the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea (richest, and probably the 'whitest' London borough - over 70% white) 42.2 cases/100,000. Based on that, it's clearly rich white folks who are the hotbed of disease.
Pretty sure I saw percents also mentioned somewhere but this is a concern even mids muslims themself, not just some white-chistian-nutjob
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-muslim-mosque-closure-prayer-nhs-a9411936.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-muslim-mosque-closure-prayer-nhs-a9411936.html)

edit: https://twitter.com/HarasRafiq/status/1240749413745778693 (https://twitter.com/HarasRafiq/status/1240749413745778693)

(UK mortality numbers are still so low that it doesn't necessarily mean much yet, you can get that percent from single unlucky mosque. )
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 21, 2020, 06:46:42 pm
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.

What makes the West correct?


To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel.  When the threat was far, laught and  without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.

Here,this is the video  of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.

https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 21, 2020, 06:47:11 pm
If I understood correctly, the idea was that the Chinese predicted when the peak demand in intensive care is going to be, and being prepared early, they could build something which is inbetween a really proper hospital, and a makeshift temporary hospital converted from something else. The details matter, and you can get many details right (even if not all) when you have a week to design and another to build. If you are super efficient, at least.

China built TWO types of new hospitals, makeshift ones and semi-permanent ones. The former is for taking confirmed patients from society to a controlled recovery place, the latter is to treat those severe cases that need real hospital resources.

In Wuhan, they built 16 makeshift ones, and they can be taken apart overnight too. After all those are just foam boards and MDF boards placed in stadiums. Those real hospitals took longer to built, clocking in at 7 days and 10 days, and they have real gears like properly ventilated wards, CT scanners, labs and more. They only built two of them in Wuhan, and a few in other major cities anticipating mass influx of patients from abroad.

Some of those semi-permanent hospitals will be converted to permanent settings for future pandemic mitigation, like the original one in Beijing built for SARS (conversion started late January, finished early March), some will remain there for future conversion. I don't see they plan to remove any of them.
China really have shown the rest of the world how to deal with the problem.

If we shutdown the whole of the UK for few weeks, only allowing hospital staff to use pubic transport, this could be over quickly. Food could even be strictly controlled, to cut down the numbers in shops. Most people in the UK are fat enough they could cope with hardly eating for few weeks. We really need to come down on this hard.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 21, 2020, 06:47:59 pm
The fact people living in more crowded spaces are more at risk doesn't seem that weird to me. No reason to make this a political matter.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 21, 2020, 07:06:43 pm

I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
Read somewhere that so far the muslim population in UK has been hit hardest. Like 10x infections  or something.
Extended families with grandparents living under the same roof and eating habits like sharing the same plate of food among family members.

Likely to be bullshit propaganda put out by some nut-job who wants to cast Muslims in a bad light.

I live in one of, if not the, the most Muslim boroughs in the country (32% of population) and there are, as of now, 42 officially confirmed cases (irrespective of religion etc. etc) out of 350,000 people in the borough (12/100,000), a comparable rate to other London boroughs. Our (less densely populated) neighbour Essex  has 2.92 cases/100,000 and 0.3% Muslims, the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea (richest, and probably the 'whitest' London borough - over 70% white) 42.2 cases/100,000. Based on that, it's clearly rich white folks who are the hotbed of disease.
Pretty sure I saw percents also mentioned somewhere but this is a concern even mids muslims themself, not just some white-chistian-nutjob
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-muslim-mosque-closure-prayer-nhs-a9411936.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-muslim-mosque-closure-prayer-nhs-a9411936.html)

Whatever the motivation, the numbers just don't bear it out. Like I say, more Muslims in my neighbourhood than anywhere else in Britain - no more cases than any other London borough.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 21, 2020, 07:09:31 pm
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.

What makes the West correct?


To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel.  When the threat was far, laught and  without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.

Here,this is the video  of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.

https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)

You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 07:11:48 pm
of course that is also a form of propaganda, but medical staff exhaustion is over since days if not weeks as new cases have been lower and lower for a while
stop looking for evil plots

Since you are using Italian flag, just curious as these are not covered mostly by western news agencies.

Is it true China have sent medical teams and also medical supplies to Italy to help ? Or its just another lie ?

no that's true, and they have criticized Italian people because just still too many of them do not abide by the quarantine rules
they have also sent a lot of supplies

the following was a misunderstanding:
a huge part of with has been stolen by the asshole who rule the Czech republic (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2975122/#msg2975122)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 07:28:38 pm
The problem is that when the whole population buys masks, the people really at very high risk like the healthcare workers may run out of supplies.

This!

I'm quite certain that if there were actually an abundant supply of masks, most public health officials would be advising that everyone wear one.  This is not so much for the wearer to prevent becoming infected, rather to help curtail the spread from those that may not even know they're spreading it.

Public health officials here are correct, in that we really all should be acting like we each already have the virus when interacting with others to help limit the spread from those without obvious symptoms.

I found it very striking that one of the first things that the Dr. from the Chinese Red Cross team that is in Italy now to help give guidance to the government said in his statement was basically, "You're doing this all wrong!  You're not restricting people nearly enough!  Your mass transit is still running!  Why is everyone not wearing masks?!"

Edit: Found the actual quote:
Quote
Chinese Red Cross Vice President Sun Shuopeng warned Italians that they were risking lives by not adhering to the novel coronavirus lockdown. He made the comments after visiting Milan in the hardest-hit region of Italy, which has recorded 41,035 cases and 3,405 deaths. “Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by COVID-19, the lockdown measures are very lax,” the veteran of the Wuhan epidemic fight said Thursday. “I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masks.” Sun warned that the resistance to the lockdown will prove deadly. “I don’t know what people here are thinking. We really have to stop our usual economic activities and our usual human interactions. We have to stay at home and make every effort to save lives. It is worth putting every cost we have into saving lives.”

I fully agree with Dr Sun Shuopeng, unfortunately it is next to impossible to make those assholes understand that the sooner and the stricter they quarantine themselves we quarantine ourselves the sooner the problem will be over (or at least will be made much more manageable)

many of those complains they are fed up to stay at home, they want to go out jogging and so on

during the last two weeks I got out just twice to buy food and medicines and while I saw much less people than usual there were still to many idiots going around for no apparent reason and behaving as fools (e.g. taking off the mask and smoking a cigarette)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 21, 2020, 07:30:27 pm
of course that is also a form of propaganda, but medical staff exhaustion is over since days if not weeks as new cases have been lower and lower for a while
stop looking for evil plots

Since you are using Italian flag, just curious as these are not covered mostly by western news agencies.

Is it true China have sent medical teams and also medical supplies to Italy to help ? Or its just another lie ?

no that's true, and they have criticized Italian people because just still too many of them do not abide by the quarantine rules
they have also sent a lot of supplies a huge part of with has been stolen by the asshole who rule the Czech republic (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2975122/#msg2975122)

@not1xor1: plz be so kind and stop writing BULLSHIT.
Read again below, there is the link to the China's/CZ's statement on it.
Btw, the masks were not intended for Italian people..

the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)

Quote
"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.

they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU

Few days back a seller offered masks to CZ Ministry of Health for an unusually high price, stocked in CZ. Ministry declined and informed police.

Police seized the complete stock of 680k masks according to the current "CZ law in state of emergency" and the Ministry paid the seller the usual price.

Police investigated the case and found out 101k masks from that stock were a donation from the Red Cross of Qingtian City of China's Zhejiang province to Chinese expatriates in Italy.

CZ and Zhejiang province is organizing the replacement.

http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm (http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm)

Edit: typos
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 21, 2020, 07:33:12 pm
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.

What makes the West correct?


To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel.  When the threat was far, laught and  without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.

Here,this is the video  of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.

https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)

You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.


It doesn't help much, but I get the general idea.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/sevilla/20200320/474258630948/spiriman-medico-granada-susana-diaz-insultos-perfil-coronavirus.html&prev=search (https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/sevilla/20200320/474258630948/spiriman-medico-granada-susana-diaz-insultos-perfil-coronavirus.html&prev=search)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 07:35:13 pm
I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.

yes
look at the statistics (https://www.who.int/nmh/countries/en/) somebody (sorry I do not remember who) else linked a few messages ago
the sex smoke difference in China is huge compared to that of UK and many other countries
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 07:43:22 pm
If I understood correctly, the idea was that the Chinese predicted when the peak demand in intensive care is going to be, and being prepared early, they could build something which is inbetween a really proper hospital, and a makeshift temporary hospital converted from something else. The details matter, and you can get many details right (even if not all) when you have a week to design and another to build. If you are super efficient, at least.

the truth is just: Chinese did it better  :D
and as far as I've read, in Taiwan they managed to react pretty early too
well S.K. and Japan didn't manage that not so badly after all

but here in Europe, more or less, we just screwed up
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 07:57:10 pm
the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)

Quote
"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.

they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU

Few days back a seller offered masks to CZ Ministry of Health for an unusually high price, stocked in CZ. Ministry declined and informed police.

Police seized the complete stock of 680k masks according to the current "CZ law in state of emergency" and the Ministry paid the seller the usual price.

Police investigated the case and found out 101k masks from that stock were a donation from the Red Cross of Qingtian City of China's Zhejiang province to Chinese expatriates in Italy.

CZ and Zhejiang province is organizing the replacement.

http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm (http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm)

Edit: typos

OK thanks... that seems more believable... it looks like the newspaper has been fooled by the Czech activist - he may have been in good faith too - so it is likely just another misunderstanding in this messy situation
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 21, 2020, 07:58:38 pm
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.

What makes the West correct?


To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel.  When the threat was far, laught and  without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.

Here,this is the video  of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.

https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)

You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.

I think it's clear enough. Go exercise your pattern matching a little bit and you'll be able to make sense of it. Yes, he's probably using Google translate, from Spanish, I guess.

Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 21, 2020, 08:12:09 pm
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.

What makes the West correct?


To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel.  When the threat was far, laught and  without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.

Here,this is the video  of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.

https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)

You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.

The 90% the setences  wrote myself and the rest  i use as support the google translator for  translate words or "try to correct" spelling errors. Apart, i recognize that  not  domain english and many times i have the bad habit of  translate  spanish vulgar expressions to english .
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 08:12:28 pm
@not1xor1: plz be so kind and stop writing BULLSHIT.
Read again below, there is the link to the China's/CZ's statement on it.
Btw, the masks were not intended for Italian people..

I thank you for clarifying that, you are right, but I didn't intend to write anything false
I just linked a newspaper article thinking it was true...  :palm:
I have edited my previous messages
I apologize with everybody
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 21, 2020, 08:18:16 pm
..
OK thanks... that seems more believable... it looks like the newspaper has been fooled by the Czech activist - he may have been in good faith too - so it is likely just another misunderstanding in this messy situation
The Czechia and Slovakia have special regulation in power currently, and for example in Czechia for spreading misleading information you may serve for 8 years behind bars..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bicurico on March 21, 2020, 08:24:49 pm
Hi,

Attached is an Excel sheet that I developed, which allows to simulate infection rate vs. death toll, considering the size of a population, number of hospital beds, etc.

It does not pretend to give any real forecast, but I believe it allows to visualize why it is best to declare quaranteen to make sure people stay at home.

The Excel provides a page in Portuguese, English, German and Spanish. Feel free to share or do whatever you want with it (except fake news of course).

I think more resilent people will perhaps better understand what is going on.

Also, it becomes clear how long this pandemic might endure and/or the releation between more deaths and short pandemic period or less death within a longer pandemic period.

While I am open to suggestion to improve the Excel and would really love to see a BETTER Excel sheet, I am not in the mood to discuss how poor or badly made it is: if you dislike it, just don't use it!

On a different topic: I believe that one of the biggest aspects of this pandemic and the way societies are handling it, is in fact the mental health. People are not used to be confined at home for days, especially with the family 24/7. We lack social interaction, friends, alone time, etc.

I would like to start some discussion on this:

1) Use social media! Use software like Skype, Whatsapp, etc. to talk to friends and coworkers! Microsoft has stated that Teams is for free use for private and commercial use during the Covid-19 outbreak. It is great to have live video conference with a group of people. Schedule such a meeting with your colleagues, even if work does not required it: just to socialize, talk and spend some virtual "normal" time.

2) Take 1 hour of alone time and make your house companions aware you need this time (if this is the case). Respect if they need such alone time, too.

3) Invest in routers, access points and high speed internet, so that everyone at home has internet access in their rooms. It is very annoying to have 4 people in one room doing webcalls, online classes, etc.

Share your thoughts and suggestions!

Take care.

Regards,
Vitor
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 08:28:52 pm
Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.

it has been the same here with politicians who, just to oppose the government continuously changed their position:
- "stricter rules" (they meant a nonsensical quarantine just for Chinese children in January),
- "it is just a cold", after the government started to put some restrictions,
- a few days later some politicians of the same party asked for much stricter quarantine rules, others for a stop to quarantine...

they are just crazy... in all this madness they are just able to think about propaganda
the reality is that nobody knew anything about this virus, many of WHO initial assumptions have failed and most countries in the world never had to face a similar situation
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 21, 2020, 08:29:36 pm
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.

What makes the West correct?


To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel.  When the threat was far, laught and  without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.

Here,this is the video  of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.

https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)

You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.

I think it's clear enough. Go exercise your pattern matching a little bit and you'll be able to make sense of it. Yes, he's probably using Google translate, from Spanish, I guess.

Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.

My wrong is not have done a little introduction about of the Jesus Candel. 

 About the expresion "He has his balls tied in a knot." In spanish is "Tiene los huevos por corbata " that means to be scared or terrified.

Aclaration:
huevos = testicles
corbata =tie(pice of clothes)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 21, 2020, 08:40:09 pm
Japan didn't manage that not so badly after all

Japan didn't do much of anything, except close schools earlier.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 21, 2020, 08:46:14 pm
..
OK thanks... that seems more believable... it looks like the newspaper has been fooled by the Czech activist - he may have been in good faith too - so it is likely just another misunderstanding in this messy situation
The Czechia and Slovakia have special regulation in power currently, and for example in Czechia for spreading misleading information you may serve for 8 years behind bars..

I'm sure they can't persecute Italian journalists, in any case I wrote to that newspaper (they were reporting a piece of news from a further Italian source) asked them to check your link and retract or correct the article

thanks again
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 21, 2020, 08:46:53 pm
To wear or not to wear - that is the question.

You may observe the numbers in Czechia and Slovakia with the hardest measures in EU, recalled ~10d back. They say they are leading in EU.

Wearing the face mask outside your home in CZ is mandatory, in SK required (and all wear it), it runs that way for at least a weak already, afaik.

You cannot source the off the shelf masks for the entire population today. People do DIY ones, it became a national hobby.

Those mask protect people around you from the droplets you are breathing OUT. Even with a simple textile-DIY-one it is expected at least 30% effectiveness of the FFP3 one (some say 90%). That is a pretty good number provided the masks are worn by everybody. The social distancing is required as well.

Below a shot of the new Slovakian government appointed today :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 21, 2020, 08:49:42 pm
Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.

it has been the same here with politicians who, just to oppose the government continuously changed their position:
- "stricter rules" (they meant a nonsensical quarantine just for Chinese children in January),
- "it is just a cold", after the government started to put some restrictions,
- a few days later some politicians of the same party asked for much stricter quarantine rules, others for a stop to quarantine...

they are just crazy... in all this madness they are just able to think about propaganda
the reality is that nobody knew anything about this virus, many of WHO initial assumptions have failed and most countries in the world never had to face a similar situation

Wasn't it the "Lega" man Salvini who pushed to keep all borders open when the threat became apparent? But I guess others chimed in quickly. It's been the same here, politicians acted timidly in the beginning only to now trump each other with increasingly severe measures to stop the spread.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 21, 2020, 09:05:01 pm
Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.

it has been the same here with politicians who, just to oppose the government continuously changed their position:
- "stricter rules" (they meant a nonsensical quarantine just for Chinese children in January),
- "it is just a cold", after the government started to put some restrictions,
- a few days later some politicians of the same party asked for much stricter quarantine rules, others for a stop to quarantine...

they are just crazy... in all this madness they are just able to think about propaganda
the reality is that nobody knew anything about this virus, many of WHO initial assumptions have failed and most countries in the world never had to face a similar situation

Worse, because  he is urgency doctor from Granada  and he has a lot information about of Italian situation. Futhermore, he said that the italian public healthcare is less quality than the spanish public healthcare when  Italy was 1000 deaths.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 21, 2020, 09:25:24 pm
To wear or not to wear - that is the question.

You may observe the numbers in Czechia and Slovakia with the hardest measures in EU, recalled ~10d back. They say they are leading in EU.

Wearing the face mask outside your home in CZ is mandatory, in SK required (and all wear it), it runs that way for at least a weak already, afaik.

You cannot source the off the shelf masks for the entire population today. People do DIY ones, it became a national hobby.

Those mask protect people around you from the droplets you are breathing OUT. Even with a simple textile-DIY-one it is expected at least 30% effectiveness of the FFP3 one (some say 90%). That is a pretty good number provided the masks are worn by everybody. The social distancing is required as well.

Below a shot of the new Slovakian government appointed today :)

While they don't do massive fast-test for detecting  infecteds and they know that zones are more infected and  it isolates. It is lost battle.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 21, 2020, 09:42:04 pm
Below a shot of the new Slovakian government appointed today :)
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/?action=dlattach;attach=953694;image)
It makes me wonder which part of the dress of the lady in the middle is now missing.  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 21, 2020, 09:55:22 pm
FWIW, I've pretty much stopped following this thread, but I thought I'd jump in and provide some of the latest WHO data for the US. Attached is my Excel graph of total deaths as well as new deaths each day.

The blue bars are total deaths to date, and the yellow are the new deaths each day. Apparently CDC's numbers are higher (for whatever reason...I'm thinking WHO might be a day behind CDC or something) but I thought I'd stick with WHO to make them comparable to the rest of the world.

For the TL;DR crowd, basically the number of new deaths in the US has been pretty flat at between 40 and 50 each day for the last 4 days. I also adjusted the vertical scale to highlight that it's all a matter of perspective. And to allow for the inevitable increase.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 21, 2020, 10:28:30 pm
FWIW, I've pretty much stopped following this thread, but I thought I'd jump in and provide some of the latest WHO data for the US. Attached is my Excel graph of total deaths as well as new deaths each day.

The blue bars are total deaths to date, and the yellow are the new deaths each day. Apparently CDC's numbers are higher (for whatever reason...I'm thinking WHO might be a day behind CDC or something) but I thought I'd stick with WHO to make them comparable to the rest of the world.

For the TL;DR crowd, basically the number of new deaths in the US has been pretty flat at between 40 and 50 each day for the last 4 days. I also adjusted the vertical scale to highlight that it's all a matter of perspective. And to allow for the inevitable increase.
That's good news, but there's no need for complacency. There will be a lag between people contracting the virus, falling ill and dying. I hope the number of deaths fall in the US, but it isn't my expectation.

Constructive feedback: please choose a more sensible scale for the Y-axis and PNG format, is more suitable for graphs, than JPG.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 21, 2020, 10:44:19 pm
In the case of the US, it's worth looking at the data at the state level (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)). They've been together way longer than the EU, but they're still country-sized governments. We haven't been looking at the EU as a whole for the most part, and if we did we'd have a completely different feel for what is happening in Italy.

Right now New York State (population 19.5 million, 8.6 of that in New York City) with 11645 cases, which is nearly half of all cases in the US. Probably more than half in a couple days. Now on a stay-at-home order. What happens here will probably be very instructive to the rest of the country.

Compare that to California (population 39.6 million, 4 million of that in Los Angeles, 1.4 in San Diego, 7+ in the San Francisco bay area cities) with 1274 cases. Which will go up, of course, but the fact it's a tenth of New York cases for twice the population says something. Now on a stay-at-home order statewide, some days earlier for the San Francisco area. I expect the state to fare better than New York, anyway.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 21, 2020, 11:15:04 pm
FWIW, I've pretty much stopped following this thread, but I thought I'd jump in and provide some of the latest WHO data for the US. Attached is my Excel graph of total deaths as well as new deaths each day.

The blue bars are total deaths to date, and the yellow are the new deaths each day. Apparently CDC's numbers are higher (for whatever reason...I'm thinking WHO might be a day behind CDC or something) but I thought I'd stick with WHO to make them comparable to the rest of the world.

For the TL;DR crowd, basically the number of new deaths in the US has been pretty flat at between 40 and 50 each day for the last 4 days. I also adjusted the vertical scale to highlight that it's all a matter of perspective. And to allow for the inevitable increase.
That's good news, but there's no need for complacency. There will be a lag between people contracting the virus, falling ill and dying. I hope the number of deaths fall in the US, but it isn't my expectation.

Constructive feedback: please choose a more sensible scale for the Y-axis and PNG format, is more suitable for graphs, than JPG.

The death count will not fall while the case count rises. Experience has shown that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on March 21, 2020, 11:48:44 pm
The death count will not fall while the case count rises. Experience has shown that.
Death count falling implies zombie apocalypse.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rdl on March 21, 2020, 11:53:52 pm
About halfway down is a map showing cases in the US by state.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tinhead on March 22, 2020, 12:00:52 am
no worries, US is coming up, already top 3, till end of next week we will get 100k in US :\

Btw, all the media statements, based on the statistics are actually wrong (or really optimistic). Everybody counts death/total, but that's only true if Health System works/exists. The real important number is death/death+recovered. Only China managed to get high recovered number, so everybody counts like for China, 1.5 to 4.5 %, but does anybody else isolated milions of ppl? or build hospitals? Actually not, so how in the hell can we take numbers from China and lie to all ppl, watch e.g. Italy to understand how that ends up.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 12:03:50 am
If you assume that something like 3% of confirmed cases will become fatalities at some point, and at this point in the US there are say 15-20,000 confirmed cases (actually 15,219 reported today), then it seems reasonable to assume in the next week or two we can expect the number of total deaths so far to rise from the present 200 to at least around 200 + 600 = 800 in the US.

Personally, I expect (hope) that the strong restrictions being put in place in the US are going to have a positive impact in the near future in terms of a reduction of new confirmed cases.

 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 12:59:57 am

Quote
NOOOO Sal! Don't use Tomas' work! He's not a mathematician; there's a massive fundamental flaw with his blog post. He misused posterior/prior probabilities in it. In the part where he estimates 800 actual cases by the time of 1st death, he uses a 1% probability for the death.
But he should be using Bayes to incorporate the info that the person had died (in other words, a dead person is more likely to have come from a high mortality demographic than a 1% demographic). It's the same mistake that was infamously made in the OJ Simpson case. 

I get a feeling of fear whenever I hear Bayesian statistics mentioned. There's nothing wrong with Bayesian statistics, if and only if, it is in the hands of a competent trained statistician. In the hands of others who don't properly understand it, it rapidly degenerates into at best a farce, at worst a method of proving that black is white and white is black (unfortunately this does not result in the perpetrators getting killed on the next Zebra Crossing a la Douglas Adams). My loathing is based on having seem the twaddle tramped out in peer reviewed sociology journals where you could drive a fleet of buses through the Bayesian statistics used. For every 1 social scientist who actually knows what a prior probability is and how to use it properly, I'll show you 999 who don't and just pluck prior probabilities out of thin air that support their argument. Rant over.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 22, 2020, 01:18:21 am
I don't get it why people are focusing so much on wearing masks.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 01:38:12 am
The way I see it, in this case it's just the use of Bayes' theorem to estimate conditional probability.

You misunderstand, I am agreeing with him:


Quote
NOOOO Sal! Don't use Tomas' work! He's not a mathematician; there's a massive fundamental flaw with his blog post. He misused posterior/prior probabilities in it.

I get a feeling of fear whenever I hear Bayesian statistics mentioned. There's nothing wrong with Bayesian statistics, if and only if, it is in the hands of a competent trained statistician. In the hands of others who don't properly understand it...

Proper statisticians are mathematicians, mathematicians are proper statisticians.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Tomk on March 22, 2020, 02:55:51 am
I don't think this has been posted here so far:
Quote
The Code Life Ventilator Challenge is a 2-week sprint to collect the best ideas from anywhere in the world to create or design life-saving ventilators. It’s a joint initiative between the Montreal General Hospital Foundation and the RI-MUHC.

https://www.mghfoundation.com/en/news/code-life-ventilator-challenge/ (https://www.mghfoundation.com/en/news/code-life-ventilator-challenge/)
https://www.agorize.com/en/challenges/code-life-challenge (https://www.agorize.com/en/challenges/code-life-challenge)

Might be interesting if you already have a design in your drawer.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 06:48:01 am
Worse, because  he is urgency doctor from Granada  and he has a lot information about of Italian situation. Futhermore, he said that the italian public healthcare is less quality than the spanish public healthcare when  Italy was 1000 deaths.

there are just so many parameters that it is quite hard to compare health care systems
even comparing mortality for each kind of disease or event (e.g. gravidance) is difficult as there are different method to classify that

for instance according to official statistics Italy does much better (10 times or so) regarding birth and mother mortality than US, but once they correct that by using same counting methods that becomes just 3-4 times (do not remember exactly as it is something I read last year on the Italian edition of Scientific American) - well that still a lot better if you consider the greater health care expenditure vs. GDP of US compared to the Italian one

of course US might do much better than Italy regarding other types of diseases or treatments (so I deleted my previous extremely stupid remark)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 06:57:06 am
FWIW, I've pretty much stopped following this thread, but I thought I'd jump in and provide some of the latest WHO data for the US. Attached is my Excel graph of total deaths as well as new deaths each day.

The blue bars are total deaths to date, and the yellow are the new deaths each day. Apparently CDC's numbers are higher (for whatever reason...I'm thinking WHO might be a day behind CDC or something) but I thought I'd stick with WHO to make them comparable to the rest of the world.

For the TL;DR crowd, basically the number of new deaths in the US has been pretty flat at between 40 and 50 each day for the last 4 days. I also adjusted the vertical scale to highlight that it's all a matter of perspective. And to allow for the inevitable increase.

wikipedia already provides that (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) although it still lags behind John Hopkins University data (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) (currently US third country in the world for cases - 26'747) while it is too early (not enough data) to seriously consider a clear trend in deaths progression
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 07:12:33 am
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on March 22, 2020, 08:18:33 am
So why are there no masks in the west but in China there are? Because we didn't react on time and waited until stocks were depleted. Western politicians, all of them, were simply busy discussing it all or playing it down while they should have been paying attention and acting and preparing at the time.
Also Chinese are already commonly wearing masks even when there is no immediate threat.
Go to a touristic attraction in China in normal times, you'll see 25% of people wearing masks. They're also used in polluted cities.

So there's already rolling supplies and stock for daily use.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 22, 2020, 08:23:55 am
Bad news. After 3 days of zero domestic cases in China mainland, today Chinese CDC reported one new case related to an imported case in Guangzhou. It's still too early to see whether there will be a new wave of infection, but let's hope not.

Let's hope the isolation measures still in place will slow it to a manageable pace. I heard that Singapore is preparing to maintain strict immigration screening, with every foreigner entering the country to stay in forced quarantine for 14 days, on their own expense.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 22, 2020, 09:55:06 am
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
Death toll could still look like completely different in US vs Italy.

Italy has probably half million or more mild cases not tested whereas US testing is bit more up to date currently.
Age demographics has also huge difference for outcome: spread the virus to people mostly under 60 vs infect also everyone over 70.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 11:52:58 am
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000

Personally, I think your estimates are WAY too low. I think that 90% of the US will be dead by next Thursday at noon. Maybe 1pm.

Either that or there won't be any more deaths starting tomorrow.

Or somewhere in between those two.

Not sure.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 22, 2020, 12:26:53 pm
So why are there no masks in the west but in China there are? Because we didn't react on time and waited until stocks were depleted. Western politicians, all of them, were simply busy discussing it all or playing it down while they should have been paying attention and acting and preparing at the time.
Also Chinese are already commonly wearing masks even when there is no immediate threat.
Go to a touristic attraction in China in normal times, you'll see 25% of people wearing masks. They're also used in polluted cities.

So there's already rolling supplies and stock for daily use.

People wear masks for all sorts of reasons. A fashion statement, attention getters, don't want to share a cold, hiding one's face, bank holdup, rioting, social unrest, air pollution and maybe even rotten teeth.

The mask-wearing Free Hong Kongers don't wear them now because they have all gone into hiding. So much for their "we will fight to the death" rhetoric :scared:.
The mask-wearing Mouvement des Gilets Jaunes have also gone silent. Paris in lock down might be a good time for the perpetrators to be rounded up and be given some contact counselling :box:.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 22, 2020, 12:51:31 pm
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation. She especially highlights how the actions have happened (again, in past tense) at correct times, because the epidemic "was" here later compared to many other countries, such as Italy, it's OK to react later, as well. What she completely misses is that you should react comparatively earlier than Italy did. Yes, the government not only thinks it's OK to repeat the process seen in Italy; they don't fear saying it out loud!

The government has started talking about the whole crisis in past tense, and are mostly concerned about helping the economy to recover.

The schools have been partially reopened (for all 1st to 3rd graders); the teachers are terrified of such change. Despite starting the actions too late, last three days have been all about stopping the gradual increase of actions, and actually lifting some.

Being paralyzed by fear and not being able to do the decisions is understandable; doing the opposite and lifting the restrictions against all expert advice, OTOH, is an active choice.

There is a report from a high-level chief of diagnostics at Helsinki University Hospital, the most affected area, that the border restrictions prevent maintenance parts and personnel of critical medical equipment. At the same time, the borders are still fully open to (mostly illegal) immigration (not that it's actually a significant problem right now, but it's symbolically very interesting).

Basically, the situation has been made highly political. Politicians of the "wrong" opinion tweeting actual news verifiable from the official mass media (for example, news about single-use medical equipment being reused) are welcomed with large-scale hate campaings.

The highly political mainstream media is not too afraid about the virus itself; it's afraid of the possibility that once we get into the mindset of declaring state of emergency "too easily", we might do it, for example, in case of large-scale terrorist attack. Media thinks being able to prevent terrorism is the threat. I guess at least 80% of the people would like terrorism to be taken seriously, as well.

The trade union leader has hinted blackmailing for a pay increase of 10% in order to keep the nurses working. Of course, at such a time, such blackmailing is not tolerated anywhere; apparently we Finns are so forgiving that everybody just decided not to react to such comment at all. We hope she gets into her senses before it's too late. In such war-like conditions, blackmailing your owns and working against the health of the others easily costs your life.

The only thing helping us is that we are naturally, on average, quite less social than, for example, Italians. Many individuals and companies are taking this seriously, which helps a lot. But I'm afraid luck has too big of a role here. It may work out better than in Italy... Or it won't.

In any case, now we are in the role of just hoping for the best, and documenting the atrocities of our government for the future reference.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: flyte on March 22, 2020, 01:12:35 pm
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.

It's disgusting how many politicians worldwide are trying to monetize this by putting themselves into the spotlights. As always they think science and action is secondary to ideology, demagoguery and words. Maintaining their political existence is the primary concern, always.

Here they were quick to reassure in the media that "much economical help" is on its way. Billions of "relief" will give "air to everyone", "we're so busy with it, just thank us" ! If you listen carefully, it boils down to postponing payment deadlines and debt emission, more credits. So, regardless of the economical tsunami which will be coming, we'll happily lend you more money and just make sure you work triple shifts the next years to pay it all back, one day.

Some politician here even said a week ago there was a breakthrough. You'd now think of a vaccine, masks arriving for all, infection numbers going down, etc. No, he was talking about how he managed to find budgetary space to fit in another billion somewhere. They're on a different planet, but they count on scientists, doctors and engineers to clean up the mess.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 22, 2020, 01:15:30 pm
Bad news. After 3 days of zero domestic cases in China mainland, today Chinese CDC reported one new case related to an imported case in Guangzhou. It's still too early to see whether there will be a new wave of infection, but let's hope not.
The HK students who fled home from Europe's schools and universities before HK's 17th March deadline for new arrivals to need quarantine have brought new cases to HK. We have a friend's son staying with us right now because his school was shut by the UK government last Friday, but he isn't flying home to HK until next Friday. He'll have to undergo some form of quarantine when he gets home.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 22, 2020, 01:34:26 pm
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.
It's disgusting how many politicians worldwide are trying to monetize this by putting themselves into the spotlights. As always they think science and action is secondary to ideology, demagoguery and words. Maintaining their political existence is the primary concern, always.
Yesterday I saw NY governor M. Cuomo during the briefing (CNN). His speech was fantastic. No cheap  :bullshit: or political marketing. If I were citizen of NY I would be happy to have him there.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 01:41:02 pm
Yeah, honestly I'm kinda shocked at how politicians around the world have been behaving in the last 5-10 years. It's like they are so incredibly hypersensitive to viral social media that they do whatever "looks good" and that people will give an instantaneous "like" to or "thumbs up".  :-+

Whether those things are at all relevant or useful to society are not on their radar. It's whether the average person on social media, who often knows nothing about anything, and only knows about likes and dislikes and cares about cats playing piano, will approve and share with their friends in an unconscious, knee-jerk emotional reaction.

I think a lot of us boomers recall when our parents (who lived thru the major depression of the 1930's and the horror of World War II, and learned an incredible amount of rationality and wisdom from those experiences), were the "adults in the room" and kept stuff on track. Unfortunately, the adults have left the room. And we'll start learning the same lessons all over again.

And maybe someday we'll even learn how deeply destructive this whole social media and internet connectivity thing is.

Oh wait, who am I kidding.   

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: CatalinaWOW on March 22, 2020, 01:42:14 pm
Don't base your opinion of a political leader on one speech or appearance.  Trump held press conferences on Monday and Tuesday that were totally out of character.  Calm.  Rational.  To the point.   Excellent leadership.   He has since reverted to form.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tinhead on March 22, 2020, 02:05:59 pm
Don't base your opinion of a political leader on one speech or appearance.

that's true, we all have still "recovered" numbers missing (even after 3 and more weeks since infection), from lot of countries, and still 2/3 just/still infected, so definitely not the time to applaus a victory. Btw, maybe we should all move to Iran, they have since begin of the pandemy reported "recovered" ppl, just 3-4 days after they got infected :P For sure they trying to use that pandemy to stop the embargo, which definitely make sense and i agree, but gosh, why nobody from the western politicians told them how to "properly" fake statistics?
   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: matts-uk on March 22, 2020, 02:22:03 pm
  • Are they [facemasks] effective? Of course they are and even more so when grading goes up. There is a reason why they protect you from asbestos fibers or toxic dust. So they will protect your from infected particles or droplets.
The effectiveness of face-masks is nothing like as simple as you make it sound.  What you say is not untrue but it is incomplete.  FFP face-masks filter particles measured in micro-meters.  The covid virus is measured in nano-meters.

The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) tested FFP mask efficacy subsequent to the 2008 bird-flu scare.  FFP masks were found to provide an effective barrier against droplet transmission (>5 micro-meters) but merely reduced the risk of transmission by aerosol (<5 micro-meters).  Testing assumes ancillary infection control measures are being followed, such as disposing of the mask after a single use (task).
https://www.nursingtimes.net/clinical-archive/infection-control/use-of-respiratory-and-facial-protection-17-01-2014/ (https://www.nursingtimes.net/clinical-archive/infection-control/use-of-respiratory-and-facial-protection-17-01-2014/)
https://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr619.pdf (https://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr619.pdf)

I completely agree that domestic use of surgical masks and FFP masks provides a false sense of security.  Outside of well regulated, well resourced, health-care settings, FFP masks can quickly become a liability.  Imagine a busy doctor continuing to use the same pair of gloves as they move between patients.  The gloves will keep the doctor's hands clean but actually contribute to the spread of infection.  Take the gloves away completely and the doctor is encouraged to wash his hands more often, lowering the risk of transmission to patients and colleagues alike.

In a domestic setting face masks can become imbued with the properties of a 'magic amulet.'  The mask becomes a substitute for, and encourages neglect of, less convenient but far more effective measures. 

Quote
If you isolate with your family and keep distance from other people and you strictly abide by it, then a mask is of limited use.
Yes.  Exceptional hygiene, social distancing and isolation are THE effective measures.  Domestic mask use is (I believe) more likely to compromise those measures than enhance them.  Many will end up walking around wearing masks for hours at a time, carrying virus laden droplets, infecting people who might otherwise be spared.

Quote
As I've said, I had 10 FFP3's and came to the conclusion they're less useful to me but not to exposed health workers who may be within inches of Covid-19 patients' mouth or nose, hundreds of times a day.
Sincerely, thank you.  Without adequate supplies of the right PPE hospitals become a significant _source_ of transmission.  The UK is in a decidedly worse position than in the past, due to cost cutting policies driving the closure of small 'cottage' hospitals within local communities.  Medical services, health care professionals and their patients have been consolidated into much larger populations within city based, so called 'super-hospitals.'  Population density is the BIG transmission  risk - one of the few things that is clear in the numbers being released.

Quote
So why are there no masks in the west but in China there are? Because we didn't react on time and waited until stocks were depleted. Western politicians, all of them, were simply busy discussing it all or playing it down while they should have been paying attention and acting and preparing at the time.
Can't say what happens in other states but in the UK the press ensure the politicians are damned if they do and damned if they don't.  Subsequent to the bird-flu scare of 2008 the press took great delight in pointing out the cost of the stockpiled vaccines and medical supplies that went out of date.

Ultimately the shortage of face-masks in the West is down to the West swapping domestic manufacture for globalisation and Just In Time supply chains.  Surgical masks were already in short supply by the end of last year, while local Chinese officials were suppressing news of the outbreak.  The virus reduced manufacturing capacity in China and created a peak in domestic demand simultaneously, before anyone in the West had much clue what was going on.  When the news broke Western domestic consumers created a demand where no demand had ever existed before, with a potential to outstrip even the regular demands of the medical professions.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/face-masks-coronavirus.html (https://www.nytimes.com/article/face-masks-coronavirus.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 22, 2020, 02:39:58 pm
UK ER Junior Doctor being fitted with his mask/shield.  Bit more than just buying one off ebay/amazon I'd say.

https://youtu.be/7XZ2_xSHKMw?t=570
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 22, 2020, 03:00:02 pm
You can say that masks are not effective until cows come home. However everyone in medcare and services are wearing them. Guess they are all dumb, is that right?

Right?

Related:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-nurses-masks-covid19-swabs-exposure-1.5505406 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-nurses-masks-covid19-swabs-exposure-1.5505406)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 22, 2020, 03:07:28 pm
You can say that masks are not effective until cows come home. However everyone in medcare and services are wearing them. Guess they are all dumb, is that right?

Once again: masks are extremely valuable when you have no choice but to go out near other people; they reduce the probability of infect others, or being infected yourself. But, if anyone thinks they can go out near other people because they or the others have masks, even when it's not 100% necessary, then the mask has increased the probability of infection, which otherwise would be zero.

This is why it's important to understand that the masks are the secondary mean of protection: the primary one is not to go near anyone, at all.

Such cases naturally include medical workers, police, etc., but also the workers in supermarkets, pharmacies, etc., and optimally, all the customers buying the necessary food and medicines.

For the rest: don't go out, then you don't need to wear the mask either.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 22, 2020, 03:11:23 pm
I wonder whether to create a "simple" model how the R0 changes with applying face masks with efficiency "Me" from 0.1 .. 99.9 and social distancing "Sd" from 0.5 .. 10m could be so difficult.

For talented people on this EE blog:

1. the R0=2.5 in standard urban population with no social distancing, without any face masks
2. let's assume the droplets amount drops with square of distance (measured from the source person), muzzle droplets amount "Da"=3000 while talking, 40000 while coughing
3. consider social distancing (no masks) Sd=0.5 .. 10m -> what would be the R0(Da, Sd)?
4. add "source" face mask with Me1 = 0.1 .. 99.9 -> what would be the R0(Da, Sd, Me1)?
5. add "destination" face mask with Me2 = 0.1 .. 99.9 -> what would be the R0(Da, Sd, Me1, Me2)?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 22, 2020, 03:18:09 pm
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation. She especially highlights how the actions have happened (again, in past tense) at correct times, because the epidemic "was" here later compared to many other countries, such as Italy, it's OK to react later, as well. What she completely misses is that you should react comparatively earlier than Italy did. Yes, the government not only thinks it's OK to repeat the process seen in Italy; they don't fear saying it out loud!

The government has started talking about the whole crisis in past tense, and are mostly concerned about helping the economy to recover.

The schools have been partially reopened (for all 1st to 3rd graders); the teachers are terrified of such change. Despite starting the actions too late, last three days have been all about stopping the gradual increase of actions, and actually lifting some.


His goverment are doing like the mayor of the film "Jaws"




The trade union leader has hinted blackmailing for a pay increase of 10% in order to keep the nurses working. Of course, at such a time, such blackmailing is not tolerated anywhere; apparently we Finns are so forgiving that everybody just decided not to react to such comment at all. We hope she gets into her senses before it's too late. In such war-like conditions, blackmailing your owns and working against the health of the others easily costs your life.



Here is worse, to hazard the life of the health professionals ,it is rewarded with a palm at the shoulder. Now, we have 3500  infected between the health professional . Furthermore today, i have known that a mate of my mother has been reassigned to ICU,sooner or later my mother will too  reassigned . Simply , they are falling like flies.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 03:20:52 pm
You can say that masks are not effective until cows come home. However everyone in medcare and services are wearing them. Guess they are all dumb, is that right?

Right?

Related:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-nurses-masks-covid19-swabs-exposure-1.5505406 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-nurses-masks-covid19-swabs-exposure-1.5505406)

I know that nuance is about as welcome to you as the swish of two bricks to a camel, but could you try not to boil someone's nuanced, reasoned explanation down to a "masks good"/"masks bad" choice and a rhetorical insult?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 22, 2020, 03:34:17 pm
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.

Uh oh....  That is a very bad sign...

Didn't you guys just announce 103 new cases today? 
At 626 total, that's a 15+% increase in one day. 

Sure, let's lift restrictions, this thing is over.   :palm: 
Well handled, there, gov't! 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 22, 2020, 03:37:37 pm
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.

World Happiness Report 2019 - Finland N1.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Happiness_Report#2019_World_Happiness_Report
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 22, 2020, 03:45:54 pm
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.

Uh oh....  That is a very bad sign...

Didn't you guys just announce 103 new cases today? 
At 626 total, that's a 15+% increase in one day. 

Sure, let's lift restrictions, this thing is over.   :palm: 
Well handled, there, gov't!
I'd take Siwastajas political views with a pinch.. no with a pint of salt.  :-DD
Lots of things could have been done differently with a hindsight but so far the response in here hasn't been any worse than most of the countries with the Korea and Singapore being notable differences. China maybe also.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 22, 2020, 03:50:50 pm
For the Finnish people, it has already become a tradition to be on the top of the World Happiness Record, it's considered important as a part of our public image. This is part of the "what does the elephant think of me?" mindset. Of course, such studies measure more the mindset of the people answerring to the questions, than actual reality, which is quite average. For some reason, North Korea is missing from the study; I'm sure they would get even better score out of it.

For the same reason, majority of the people have been happy about how the government is doing with regards to the corona virus, when asked by the media. Though, anybody who has any expertise, including people on the healthcare field, do not agree.

I think it was just yesterday that the PM Sanna Marin underlined the administration's role in the good result in the happiness record.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 22, 2020, 03:55:13 pm
Lots of things could have been done differently with a hindsight

No, no and no. It's not hindsight. The advantage Finland has is that we are one of the last countries to face the epidemic; Sweden and Norway are a week, Italy and Spain over a month ahead of us. Our leaders almost literally can see in the future!

To you, laughing at "political views" may be fun. But this is a real crisis, not some "which party do we vote for" game. Look, my "political views" are not views, or opinions; I'm stating what is actually happening, maybe using words you wouldn't use, but in the end, reality is what matters.

All the decisions, including decisions not to take proper actions as recommended by WHO and other international expert organizations, and decision to reopen the schools, have been done with access to great amount of verified expert analysis and information, including directly seeing the results of the mistakes others have made. No hindsight there; we are talking about the current decisions as well, because, opposite to what you think, I don't think it's "game over" yet. (See South Korea; they were able to rectify the situation after it was already quite bad.)

You could forgive the Italian politicians quite a lot due to the fact that they were first in Europe to see the severity of the epidemic. The same is not true in Finland. We are coming last, and still repeating the same mistakes by others. Maybe the choices are not much worse than with many others; it's still a very bad excuse. We should be doing better. Now it's an undisputable fact that we are flying by luck.

The timeline is quite well documented by Iltalehti: https://www.iltalehti.fi/koronavirus/a/9932d022-e52f-4984-879b-bb231ad9c24d (https://www.iltalehti.fi/koronavirus/a/9932d022-e52f-4984-879b-bb231ad9c24d)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: magic on March 22, 2020, 04:03:53 pm
Speaking of Italian decision making:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/
Quote
He says the Italian government lagged at first. It was "lazy in the beginning... too much politics in Italy."

"There was a proposal to isolate people coming from the epicenter, coming from China," he said. "Then it became seen as racist, but they were people coming from the outbreak." That, he said, led to the current devastating situation.

 :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 22, 2020, 04:06:14 pm
Speaking of Italian decision making:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/
Quote
He says the Italian government lagged at first. It was "lazy in the beginning... too much politics in Italy."

"There was a proposal to isolate people coming from the epicenter, coming from China," he said. "Then it became seen as racist, but they were people coming from the outbreak." That, he said, led to the current devastating situation.

It looks like the "political correctness" is the major killer in this pandemic..
 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 04:12:59 pm
For the Finnish people, it has already become a tradition to be on the top of the World Happiness Record, it's considered important as a part of our public image. This is part of the "what does the elephant think of me?" mindset. Of course, such studies measure more the mindset of the people answerring to the questions, than actual reality, which is quite average.

As "happiness" is entirely subjective, how can there be an "actual reality"? You mean, "I am miserable, therefore it (and everybody else) is wrong".

Welcome to the grumpy old men's club, the coffee's in the corner, beer's in the fridge, the "there's a small boy on the grass" alarm button is on the south wall. For god's sake don't sit in George's chair, we're still trying to get bits of Harri out of the log chipper.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 22, 2020, 04:19:39 pm
For the Finnish people, it has already become a tradition to be on the top of the World Happiness Record, it's considered important as a part of our public image. This is part of the "what does the elephant think of me?" mindset. Of course, such studies measure more the mindset of the people answerring to the questions, than actual reality, which is quite average.

As "happiness" is entirely subjective, how can there be an "actual reality"? You mean, "I am miserable, therefore it (and everybody else) is wrong".

Welcome to the grumpy old men's club, the coffee's in the corner, beer's in the fridge, the "there's a small boy on the grass" alarm button is on the south wall. For god's sake don't sit in George's chair, we're still trying to get bits of Harri out of the log chipper.

[attach=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 22, 2020, 04:20:09 pm
mzzj's "hindsight" argument is, by the way, an absolute classic I have seen so many times:

(An expert:) This is urgent, we needed to do this two weeks ago!
(Decision-maker:) That's easy to say in hindsight, shut up.
(An expert:) OK, so you agree with me that it should be done, can we do that thing NOW?
(Decision-maker:) Oh, it's so easy to say in hindsight. We did our best.
(An expert:) OK, sure you did, but please, could we finally do it NOW?
(Decision-maker:) We are really doing our best, you know? You can't blame us.
(An expert:) OK, OK, whatever, not blaming anyone, just can we do it now?
(Decision-maker:) We are planning to do our best, and...

I did see the exact same mechanism destroy a promising business. I spoke up regularly from the beginning, but it was apparently always "in hindsight", hence unimplementable, until I finally left. In Finland we call this thing "selittelyvaihe" and I'm afraid we are seeing this going on by the authorities right now. Yes, I believe they will get hold of it at some point, but seeing this pattern for a few days right now is alarming. They need to get off this mindset sooner than later.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 04:26:00 pm

(Attachment Link)

I think that's my elbow on the left...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 22, 2020, 04:28:02 pm
As "happiness" is entirely subjective, how can there be an "actual reality"? You mean, "I am miserable, therefore it (and everybody else) is wrong".

That's a good question, indeed; the wording "actual reality" was stupidly simplified. Of course, you could kind-of objectively measure it using suicide statistics (or problems caused by severe alcoholism) for example - we do worse than average European society, but are not among the absolute worst -, but it won't be exact, because that reflects one extreme form of unhappiness, and only shows the shape of the distribution, but you can't accurately derive the mean value of "happiness" by assuming a perfect gaussian distribution, because it won't distribute that way.

On the other hand, let me ask you this: if you asked North Korean citizens to participate in such a study, you would most likely get the result that they are the happiest country in the world (I think it's obvious why they are not part of the study.) If I then play devil's advocate and say they are not "really" happy, would you agree with me? You might, I guess; for example, starving to death due to lack of food doesn't sound like a happy life; although indeed, happiness is subjective and we can't just say "you are not really happy" to someone.

It's quite interesting, btw, how you changed my literal description "quite average" to "miserable" in your grumpy old men analogy.

No need to reply to these philosophical remarks, it doesn't matter much here, let's get back to the corona.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 04:30:51 pm
Years ago I had a buddy who was a PSYCH professor at a university. And he'd always tell me his little "gems of truth" about human behavior that were very well known in the world of psychology, but nobody really talked about because people might get offended.

But the one that he'd often repeat whenever we discussed big issues like this is this:

"People believe what they want to believe. Facts are totally irrelevant".

And I kept pressing him with "yeah, but what about engineers and scientists and stuff??"

His response "Read my lips: People believe what they want to believe. Facts are totally irrelevant".

And after doing a tad of research I learned there's an absolute ton of studies with the same conclusion. And after following internet and media discussions for many years I've learned he was 100% right.

It's a fascinating subject, and I encourage folks to do some investigation. Really interesting phenomenon.   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 22, 2020, 04:30:54 pm
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000

  I wish that I could say that you're wrong.  I thought that the large number of new cases being reported might be due to previously untested individuals that they were just  getting around to testing but even after more than a week of large scale testing, the new case number is staying high so most of them probably really are newly infected individuals.  Thanks to the irresponsible students and others that continue to party like it's 1999 this is is going to sweep through the US like a wildfire.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 22, 2020, 04:46:29 pm
Note that a majority of the cases, 378 as of Sunday, 22 March (https://korona.kans.io/) are in Helsinki-Uusimaa region, with just 1.2 M people.



I'd like to emphasize that the difference between mzzj and Siwastaja or myself is not political, but something different, more like temperament or attitude.  I hope this will come out as neutral, and illustrates the difficulty in managing the situation; I have no intention of claiming one is better than the other, only that one might be more appropriate for this particular situation, and much less so for some other situations.  I've also seen people I know well shifting from one to the other (both ways!) as their own situation has changed.  Keep this in mind, okay?

In this axis, there are two basic groups of Finns.  One group believes that we can do whatever we want, including rejecting old agreements (breaking them, essentially), set whatever new laws the country wants, and that it is a matter of will.  The other group believes that their choices are based on existing law (and international agreements), and that there is really only one sane course, the one they propose.

Funny side note:  Remember the movie Iron Sky? Which country didn't arm their spaceship? (https://youtu.be/LR9N3NOutaQ)  It is extremely funny to Finns, because it is true!

There is almost zero discussion between the two.  It is made even harder, as the second group misunderstands the first group, because they observe the suggestions from the point of what they believe current law and international agreements allow.

(In 2015, when there was a flood of asylum seekers from Sweden to Finland, one side wanted to "close the borders", i.e. re-enact border checks, and reject those who came from another safe EU country to Finland seeking asylum.  A lot of people objected, because they sincirely believed that doing that would necessarily also close the border for all other traffic as well.  Correct or not, that illustrates the difficulty in the two sides' attitudes, and the difficulty in getting the true ideas across.)

Because of this divide/difference, there is actually very little discussion between the two groups on how things could be done.  Internally, there is usually a lively discussion (on one side, about what kind of changes would be needed; on the other, the leeway given by existing law and agreements, and how other countries have applied or misapplied those), but it is not reflected by the media.  Indeed, the mainstream media only reflects the latter, for whatever reason.  (That does not mean that group is happy about the media, though.)

The annoying part, the one that really bothers and angers me, is that because of that lack of honest discussion, the latter group will invariably resort to "nobody could foresee this" and "hindsight is 20/20" type arguments afterwards.  Obviously, neither group is willing to actually take responsibility, because we are all humans, but rejecting direct, honest discussion of the practically available approaches and possible solutions, does not mean that you can label the other suggestions as "hindsight" afterwards.

I first observed this as a child, when the Finnish officials delayed revealing the Chernobyl disaster (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster).  Like now, they sincirely believed that people would be better off not knowing.  (This is prevalent in Finnish media, who are much more concerned about what Finns should not hear about, than they are about what they should hear.)  As an adult, I was among the ones who were called "Linux zealots" and "conspiracy theorist" when we correctly predicted the downfall of Nokia into Microsoft ownership when Stephen Elop became Nokia's CEO.  (I should point out that a lot of people still consider me a conspiracy theorist for Nokia, even though I said even then that I don't think there is any conspiracy, that the end result would simply be a logical result of the business strategy, and nothing sinister.  :-//)

The reason I don't think this is political (in the commonly used sense), is that this grouping is independent of political views.  There is not much correlation with this way of grouping to Left-Right or Socialist-Capitalist axes; you find members of both groups in all political parties here.  As long as no action is taken, or major changes made, this major difference does not cause deep rifts within the political parties.  (In a very real sense, you could say that the split in the True Finns party a few years ago was exactly due to this rift, though -- so perhaps there is one party that does include mostly the first group and very few of the second group, because they already split along these lines.)

I fear that this rift between the two groups is what is driving the no-action/minimal-action policy; that action is avoided because it would lead to internal political problems, and not because the political groups are internally in agreement as to what course of action is best for the whole country.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 22, 2020, 04:48:44 pm
Years ago I had a buddy who was a PSYCH professor at a university. And he'd always tell me his little "gems of truth" about human behavior that were very well known in the world of psychology, but nobody really talked about because people might get offended.

But the one that he'd often repeat whenever we discussed big issues like this is this:

"People believe what they want to believe. Facts are totally irrelevant". ..

That translated into the Politics means - today's success in Politics is hugely based on Populistic Marketing.

None Politician wants to be the "bearer of bad news" ("Facts are totally irrelevant").

"Shooting the Messenger" is an everyday reality in Politics and it works perfectly everywhere ("People believe what they want to believe").

For the Finnish people, it has already become a tradition to be on the top of the World Happiness Record, it's considered important as a part of our public image. This is part of the "what does the elephant think of me?" mindset. Of course, such studies measure more the mindset of the people answerring to the questions, than actual reality, which is quite average. For some reason, North Korea is missing from the study; I'm sure they would get even better score out of it..

I doubt it works such an easy way - ie. they ask a Government how the happiness is like in their country, or, they ask a few people assigned by the leading Party - that would mean no second place would ever exist.. :)

Look at the actual Report - a pretty sophisticated stuff..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 22, 2020, 05:06:41 pm
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Sure we can take some temporary measures to go through this, but what in the long run? Many of us are saying we are unprepared, which is true. But what exactly being fully prepared would entail?

Does anyone here think (as I am unfortunately envisioning) that over time (if not this time, next time...) it may drastically change the way we all live our daily lives? To a point where it might really not be fun? Dunno. Possibly we'll forget about it all soon enough, but when it happens again, that's gonna be a different story.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 22, 2020, 05:29:02 pm
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000

  I wish that I could say that you're wrong.  I thought that the large number of new cases being reported might be due to previously untested individuals that they were just  getting around to testing but even after more than a week of large scale testing, the new case number is staying high so most of them probably really are newly infected individuals.

I would argue that the USA has not even begun what I would call "large scale testing."  The best data I can find shows that they had only tested 100,000 people by Friday, in total, across the entire country so far!  That is what, about a 15-20% positive rate after testing only about one in every 3300 of the population?  They haven't really even begun to test everyone that should be tested, those with possible symptoms or known exposure.  There are likely hundreds of thousands more people in the US infected already by this point, and sadly the stated control method is to play "Whack-A-Mole."   :palm:

Here in the province of Alberta alone (population about 4 million), we had tested 20,360 people by Friday.  That is one test for every 215 people.  Every person who has possible symptoms or has been known to be exposed has been tested.  There are no fees, no hoops to jump through, no backlogs.  If someone should be tested, they are tested.  To Friday, we had found only 195 cases province-wide, so less than 1% of those tested came back with a positive result.

Yet, even with apparently relatively low transmission here, we are taking no chances.  All bars & pubs have been closed, operating licenses suspended.  The staff have all be laid off and most will unfortunately never re-open as they will never be able to weather even a month or two of closure.  Restaurants are allowed to do take-out / delivery, with the option to open a dining room at up to half capacity, maximum 50 people, though few are choosing to.

Everyone else is supposed to stay home except for essential businesses.  Traffic is eerily light, even compared to the lightest, slowest summer traffic when everyone is away on vacation.  There is no "rush hour" commute.  It was nice yesterday, though, to see lots of people out for a walk now that spring weather is arriving, they're just being very cognizant and keeping their distance from others.  I guess we're pretty lucky here in Canada, our average population density doesn't even register on the sparse-o-meter, and many cities, like here in Calgary, are extremely "urban-sprawled" for the population size. 

Trying to control this in New York, especially leaving the transit system running?  Good luck.  :(

Quote
Thanks to the irresponsible students and others that continue to party like it's 1999 this is is going to sweep through the US like a wildfire.

Sadly, it looks like it already has, and it looks like the response (both in the knowing-it's-coming phase and the OMG-it's-here phase) in the US has been, and continues to be, by far the worst in the world overall.  It's like a massive wreck in slow motion that you can't look away from.  It is unfortunately likely to be very bad.

Many have wished for the US to be "knocked down a peg or two" for many years, but I don't think anyone wanted to see a pandemic sweep through with mass deaths, etc. to wake them up.

So sad.

Try to stay healthy, everyone!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 22, 2020, 05:38:42 pm
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Sure we can take some temporary measures to go through this, but what in the long run? Many of us are saying we are unprepared, which is true. But what exactly being fully prepared would entail?

Good question.

Really, the saddest part for me was about 3 weeks ago when the spread started in Italy so forcefully, where I suddenly realized how trivial it would be for any major government or reasonably-well funded private entity to engineer and release a targeted virus to essentially wipe out some genetically related group.    :'(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 05:39:19 pm
drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data? I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world??

As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201.

Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 22, 2020, 05:49:54 pm
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?
Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 22, 2020, 05:50:44 pm
Wow! And I thought Canadian Health Authority representative was an idiot when he said "when you see Chinese people on the strret  shake their hand"

https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist (https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 22, 2020, 05:58:16 pm
drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data?

I have been following all the raw data since December and doing my own analysis, yes.

Quote
I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world??

I mean worst shape as far as preparedness.

It appears that the US is only just beginning to see the tip of the infection iceberg and seems totally ill-equipped to handle it.  There seems to be a lack of federal leadership, leaving more local officials without proper support and guidance.  The medical system does not appear poised to be able to handle the influx that appears to be coming, with no real plans on how to try to improve the situation.  There are millions and millions of people who cannot even seek medical care, even if they're actually carrying the virus.

I would love to be wrong, but I fear the US will be the hardest hit within a few weeks.

Quote
As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201.

Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot.

We do have a clue, though.  We can make educated suppositions based on the available evidence from previous cases and responses worldwide.  Wait about two weeks (the median number of days from symptoms to death is about 14 days) and compare the number of deaths once more of the infected Americans start to die.

Excerpt from another forum post:
Quote
The data from the following preliminary studies agrees with my own empirical evidence and analysis graphs (the trends in recovered and deaths track closely) which you probably would dismiss anyway since I'm just some guy on the internet. :)

Instead, here are some data points from actual published papers by real doctors and scientists....

The Wang et al study (an admittedly small study of only 138 cases) suggests:
The median durations from first symptoms to dyspnea, hospital admission, and ARDS were 5 days (interquartile range 1-10), 7 days (IQR, 4-8), and 8 days (IQR, 6-12), respectively
The median time from onset of symptoms to ICU admission (not just hospital admission) is 10 days (IQR 6-12)
For those discharged from hospital, the hospital stay was a median of 10 days with an IQR of 7-14 (vs 12 days median 12.8 mean duration in the Guan study of 1099 cases, so reasonably close agreement on hospital stay to discharge)

The earlier CNHC study (preliminary data from 17 early cases) suggests that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days

The Lan study where they were looking to see how long patients still tested positive after meeting the criteria for hospital release or lifting of quarantine, the patients were initially considered "recovered" after 12-32 days, though it does not specify a median or IQR.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R)
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 06:07:26 pm
drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be".

And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe.

As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200.

The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation.

   

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 22, 2020, 06:24:09 pm
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?
Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

For example China 40y back - even the number of infected and fatalities would had been 100x higher than today nobody would know outside China..

Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe", and the Eastern Bloc - while hiding their real numbers as their "state secrecy" - happily finger pointing the "low level of healthcare in the West".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 22, 2020, 06:25:15 pm
drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be".

Obviously, only time will tell.

Quote
And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe.

Why do you assume I have an anti-US bias because I point out the fact that many people worldwide would like to see the US "knocked down a peg?"  The same sentiment exists towards the UK from the EU over Brexit.  Does that somehow make me anti-UK too?   :-//  (My point was that even some vehement US-hater, which I assure you I am NOT, would not wish this situation on anyone...)

Quote
As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200.

Actually, the US confirmed cases are close to 40,000 now, with almost 14,000 added so far today.

Quote
The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation.

I believe that based on the experience of other countries, we can predict that the measures you speak of are too lax and have been implemented too slowly in many areas.  I hope I am wrong.

You believe otherwise, and I hope you are right!

Only time will tell.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 22, 2020, 06:28:35 pm
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000

  I wish that I could say that you're wrong.  I thought that the large number of new cases being reported might be due to previously untested individuals that they were just  getting around to testing but even after more than a week of large scale testing, the new case number is staying high so most of them probably really are newly infected individuals.

I would argue that the USA has not even begun what I would call "large scale testing."  The best data I can find shows that they had only tested 100,000 people by Friday, in total, across the entire country so far!  That is what, about a 15-20% positive rate after testing only about one in every 3300 of the population?  They haven't really even begun to test everyone that should be tested, those with possible symptoms or known exposure.  There are likely hundreds of thousands more people in the US infected already by this point, and sadly the stated control method is to play "Whack-A-Mole."   :palm:


Like many countries in Europe, because they haven't sufficent test for everyone.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 22, 2020, 06:38:45 pm
drussel, where do you get your numbers from? CDC doesn't report on weekends, and WHO's data is from Friday the 20th. And both of those agree on a figure of 15k.

I think it's important to choose a single and arguably reliable source rather than grabbing data from whatever pops up. I may be wrong, but in the US I would assume the final authority is the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and I assume they forward that to WHO as official data, which is why WHO data seems to lag 1 day behind. 

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 22, 2020, 06:40:43 pm
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe",

You have got to be kidding.
Are you this blind?

Do you have any idea of what is going on in Italy and Spain right now?

The hospitals of entire regions are saturated.
Doctors and nurses are getting infected and are dying.
The army had to carry away the coffins for incineration to take place in other provinces.

And you are still talking about a "strong flu"?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 06:45:18 pm
now I do not believe any longer to those newspaper  :D
so I ask: does anybody know if this is true:

Quote
Coronavirus, the Tyrolean village that infected half of Europe
Since February, more than a thousand northern European tourists have become infected in Ischgl. But only now the village has been declared a red zone. «Delays not to compromise the ski season»

full article translated from Italian (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Festeri%2F20_marzo_22%2Fcoronavirus-villaggio-tirolese-che-ha-infettato-mezza-europa-ccf18546-6c4a-11ea-8403-94d97cb6fb9f.shtml)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 22, 2020, 06:47:42 pm
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?
Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

For example China 40y back - even the number of infected and fatalities would had been 100x higher than today nobody would know outside China..

Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe", and the Eastern Bloc - while hiding the real numbers there - happily finger pointing the "low level of healthcare in the West".

40 years ago , an image  is best than 1000 words. This would be in the first page of the newspaper

https://youtu.be/4aAo_-b9XuA (https://youtu.be/4aAo_-b9XuA)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 06:50:21 pm
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe",

You have got to be kidding.
Are you this blind?

Do you have any idea of what is going on in Italy and Spain right now?

The hospitals of entire regions are saturated.
Doctors and nurses are getting infected and are dying.
The army had to carry away the coffins for incineration to take place in other provinces.

And you are still talking about a "strong flu"?

Ease up on him, his choice of avatar ought to suggest that he's "got a head full of rocks" and handle "In My Opinion" that he has difficulties with objective facts. We have to be patient with the disadvantaged.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 06:53:16 pm
here is another case... this time is Italian madness

Quote
On February 24, a few days after the beginning of the epidemic, the direction of the "Palazzolo-Don Gnocchi Institute", a piece of history of health and care in Milan, convenes a plenary meeting for workers. Three hundred doctors, nurses and operators massed in a room, some remain outside because they want to understand. They all expect a single message: more than 700 patients are hosted at the "Don Gnocchi", almost all elderly, sick and frail, and therefore the workers imagine that the structure will be "armored" to prevent the coronavirus from entering the wards, because everyone is they realize that if this happened it would be a massacre (the one that took place and Corriere has already told about the rest homes in Mediglia, Affori, or the «Virgilio Ferrari» municipal at Corvetto). Instead, the opposite happens: the management forbids all staff to wear masks, "so as not to create panic and pressure on patients and relatives", with veiled threats of disciplinary appeal for those who will use protections. "It seems incredible - many nurses say today, and their messages are converging - but they have expressly" forbidden "us to protect our patients, and we too".

translated Italian article (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fmilano.corriere.it%2Fnotizie%2Fcronaca%2F20_marzo_22%2Fnon-usate-mascherine-virus-entra-don-gnocchi-39ea6b70-6c11-11ea-8403-94d97cb6fb9f.shtml)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 22, 2020, 07:34:04 pm
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?
Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..
And no hospitals being completely overrun with patients as well?  :palm:
The western world would have been thrown back a lot economically due to having more manufacturing versus office jobs which can be done from home nowadays.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 22, 2020, 07:44:44 pm
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?
Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..
And no hospitals being completely overrun with patients as well?  :palm:
The western world would have been thrown back a lot. Also due to having more manufacturing versus office jobs which can be done from home nowadays.
Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time.
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time.
No pneumonia/flu test at that time.
No flu vaccination at that time.
No internet at that time.
No high-tech ventilators at that time.
No CT scans and MRI at that time.
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time.
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax.
No personal computers at that time.
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against  commond cold"]..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 08:23:27 pm
Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time.     wrong
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time.      wrong first ELISA test 1971, HPLC, MS-GC, PAGE all common laboratory equipment in 1980
No pneumonia/flu test at that time.     wrong
No flu vaccination at that time.     wrong - flu vaccines were available in the 1940s!
No internet at that time.      right
No high-tech ventilators at that time.      wrong
No CT scans and MRI at that time.     wrong - first commercial CAT scanners 1972, first commercial MRI scanner 1980
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.      wrong
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time.      wrong
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax.      right
No personal computers at that time.      wrong
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against  commond cold"]..      right

3 out of 12. You have failed your history of technology exam.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 08:48:39 pm
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
Death toll could still look like completely different in US vs Italy.

Italy has probably half million or more mild cases not tested whereas US testing is bit more up to date currently.
Age demographics has also huge difference for outcome: spread the virus to people mostly under 60 vs infect also everyone over 70.

mortality rate is not the same in all parts of Italy... somewhere it is almost 10%, elsewhere it is less than 1%
there are lots of factors to take into account and now it is too soon to analyze the data

in any case increase is slowing down (as percentage of previous cases)
today we had less new cases and less new deaths than yesterday
of course just one piece of data is not a trend
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 22, 2020, 09:05:15 pm
Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time.     wrong
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time.      wrong first ELISA test 1971, HPLC, MS-GC, PAGE all common laboratory equipment in 1980
No pneumonia/flu test at that time.     wrong
No flu vaccination at that time.     wrong - flu vaccines were available in the 1940s!
No internet at that time.      right
No high-tech ventilators at that time.      wrong
No CT scans and MRI at that time.     wrong - first commercial CAT scanners 1972, first commercial MRI scanner 1980
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.      wrong
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time.      wrong
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax.      right
No personal computers at that time.      wrong
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against  commond cold"]..      right

3 out of 12. You have failed your history of technology exam.
To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then, DNA sequencing was in its infancy, vaccines took much longer to develop, than they do today and personal computers were expensive and uncommon; I wasn't born until 1982 and I remember receptionists using typewriters, when I was a child: my mum used to have one and I had a toy one.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 09:15:02 pm
  • Are they [facemasks] effective? Of course they are and even more so when grading goes up. There is a reason why they protect you from asbestos fibers or toxic dust. So they will protect your from infected particles or droplets.
The effectiveness of face-masks is nothing like as simple as you make it sound.  What you say is not untrue but it is incomplete.  FFP face-masks filter particles measured in micro-meters.  The covid virus is measured in nano-meters.[/list]

AFAIK coronavirus diameter is 80-160 nm and FFP3 mask do filter fine particulate matter and do reduce the viral load
for that purpose (viral load reduction) FFP2 face-mask are considered effective too
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 09:25:36 pm
I'd take Siwastajas political views with a pinch.. no with a pint of salt.  :-DD
Lots of things could have been done differently with a hindsight but so far the response in here hasn't been any worse than most of the countries with the Korea and Singapore being notable differences. China maybe also.

yes... we all have more or less bias...
I am much more biased than I'd like
sometimes I realize that and modify my posts  :)
other times I'm so biased that saturate and my Vce goes down to 0nV  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 22, 2020, 09:53:01 pm
To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then,
Good old X-ray is equally capable in confirming pneumonia.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 22, 2020, 09:54:52 pm
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?
Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

Yeah.
We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 22, 2020, 09:56:28 pm
To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then,
Good old X-ray is equally capable in confirming pneumonia.

Yeah, and except in very specific cases, I'm pretty sure we still use that primarily in case of lung infection rather than costly MRI sessions.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 22, 2020, 10:01:47 pm
We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.
If that where true then explain how the Spanish flu made so many casualties world wide in 1918/1919. Or how the Blach Death spread all across Europe in the 1300's.

On the upside: I think we'll see a huge baby boom after 9 months from now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 10:08:22 pm
Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time.     wrong
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time.      wrong first ELISA test 1971, HPLC, MS-GC, PAGE all common laboratory equipment in 1980
No pneumonia/flu test at that time.     wrong
No flu vaccination at that time.     wrong - flu vaccines were available in the 1940s!
No internet at that time.      right
No high-tech ventilators at that time.      wrong
No CT scans and MRI at that time.     wrong - first commercial CAT scanners 1972, first commercial MRI scanner 1980
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.      wrong
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time.      wrong
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax.      right
No personal computers at that time.      wrong
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against  commond cold"]..      right

3 out of 12. You have failed your history of technology exam.
To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then, DNA sequencing was in its infancy, vaccines took much longer to develop, than they do today and personal computers were expensive and uncommon; I wasn't born until 1982 and I remember receptionists using typewriters, when I was a child: my mum used to have one and I had a toy one.

DNA sequencing was not "drop it in and let the machine do it" like it is today but I knew people doing PhDs on the "The DNA sequence of <name species/protein/whatever>" the hard way. The kind of laboratory DNA/RNA test (excluding the PCR bit which wasn't invented until 1983) being used to identify the presence of SARS-Cov-2 was one of the undergraduate labs for the biochemistry students I knew (restriction enzymes, PAGE, read the plate under UV light) just done manually rather than "drop it in the machine".

Two people in my undergraduate flat (5 of us) had commercial (as opposed to homebrew) personal computers in 1981. As to typewriters, sure still plenty around in lots of offices but in 1977 I knew a bookseller (client that was getting a computer order processing system from the software house I worked for) whose secretary used a (hugely expensive) word processor.

Vaccines? Sure, the development of genetically engineered vaccines was in its early days but most slowness in developing them for practical use was down to regulatory caution. But effective vaccines for most diseases were available. Smallpox was declared eradicated world wide on 9 Dec 1979 - a consequence of effective vaccination. All of the modern flu vaccines except for recombinant ones (which have only been in active use for less than 10 years) are made in exactly the way they were back then. The ability to make recombinant vaccines existed back then, but they were many years from use (for regulatory reasons).

The uptake of MRIs by hospitals was incredibly rapid, for good reason. I remember there being a massive charity drive to fund one for the hospital nearest my university. It was installed in the early 80s, though I can't remember the exact year.

You youngsters think we were living in the stone age.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:10:14 pm
Speaking of Italian decision making:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/
Quote
He says the Italian government lagged at first. It was "lazy in the beginning... too much politics in Italy."

"There was a proposal to isolate people coming from the epicenter, coming from China," he said. "Then it became seen as racist, but they were people coming from the outbreak." That, he said, led to the current devastating situation.

 :-DD

that's a pile of bullshit... that guy is just a liar... and the proposals of the people he refers to were just pure madness (besides taking opposite directions every few days: not enough, too much... it is just flu, not enough, etc.)

People coming from China were checked and on the 31th of January the Italian government suspended all flights to and from China while the other European countries did nothing, so:

Quote
It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genome
see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy)

Italian government probably has done a few errors, but other governments have been even worse
they could have just looked at Italy without prejudices and see how fast this runs out of control and so act as fast as possible

but everybody just thinks he is smarter
just look at what Johnson, Trump, Rutte, Macron and so on said just few days ago and how slowly they are acting
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:12:46 pm
It looks like the "political correctness" is the major killer in this pandemic..

truth is the first victim in this pandemic
the proposal that guy refers to was to quarantine just Chinese children even those who had not been in China since years
pure madness that would have not served any real purpose
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:18:55 pm
Years ago I had a buddy who was a PSYCH professor at a university. And he'd always tell me his little "gems of truth" about human behavior that were very well known in the world of psychology, but nobody really talked about because people might get offended.

and he kept on believing that psychology was science  ;D
while in the last few years it has been changing and slowly becoming more and more empirically based, usually experiments suffer from  a poor choice of the sample, not so representative (usually just students) and not large enough

psychology is one of the disciplines more affected by the inconsistent results of replicated experiments
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 22, 2020, 10:20:42 pm
drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be".

And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe.

As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200.

The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation.
 


You predict like a politician - i.e. mostly useless.

My personal predictions, based on:

In Italy the trending is growth of 10x over 14 days, and appears to be stable at this rate - 17% per day. Measures take ~14 days to be effective (based on data from China - they started lockdown at 2k cases and finished at 80k.)

If the USA applies the same control as in place two weeks ago, expect 1.8M cases (33k * 1.33^14), with 61k deaths when those cases are resolved. There will still be a pandemic evolving.

If the USA on the whole act as Italy has, expect there to be ~300,000 cases in two week (33k *1.17^14), eventually leading to 10k deaths when those cases are resolved. There will still be a pandemic evolving.

If the USA goes "full lockdown" this very instant, expect cases to level off in six weeks at 1.3M cases, with 45k deaths when those are resolved

An unscientific confidence interval of +/-50% on those numbers, as exponential are very sensitive to assumptions.

The last scenario is the best case scenario that data supports at the moment, without skilled modeling from somebody who is not an amateur in this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:23:45 pm
Really, the saddest part for me was about 3 weeks ago when the spread started in Italy so forcefully, where I suddenly realized how trivial it would be for any major government or reasonably-well funded private entity to engineer and release a targeted virus to essentially wipe out some genetically related group.    :'(

that would be quite hard if not impossible...
there is just too little genetic difference among various human groups and too much difference within a given group
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:28:38 pm
drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data? I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world??

As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201.

Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot.

it looks like you have not realized yet how this works
absolute figures mean nothing
you have to look at the trend

you will see that next sunday when US may be even in worst shape than my forecast and even if you take strict quarantine measures now as the result will arrive after 1-2 weeks
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:36:20 pm
Wow! And I thought Canadian Health Authority representative was an idiot when he said "when you see Chinese people on the strret  shake their hand"

https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist (https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist)

the same boring lie
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 22, 2020, 10:36:41 pm
We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.
If that where true then explain how the Spanish flu made so many casualties world wide in 1918/1919. Or how the Blach Death spread all across Europe in the 1300's.

On the upside: I think we'll see a huge baby boom after 9 months from now.

That one's easy if you learned any history. The last year of World War 1. Millions of international troop movements in both directions both during and after the war was won. In the case of American troops, on crowded ships. Never mind that there were many people dying of a typhus epidemic, an encephalitis epidemic, famine, and weapons of war at the same time. It may not be true of modern military, but historically more troops died of disease than combat.

As for the Black Death, that's pretty well documented if you only bother to look.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:43:00 pm
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.

I'd rather say little problem with antibiotic resistant bacteria
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 22, 2020, 10:44:48 pm
We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.
If that where true then explain how the Spanish flu made so many casualties world wide in 1918/1919. Or how the Blach Death spread all across Europe in the 1300's.

On the upside: I think we'll see a huge baby boom after 9 months from now.

That one's easy if you learned any history. The last year of World War 1. Millions of international troop movements in both directions both during and after the war was won. In the case of American troops, on crowded ships. Never mind that there were many people dying of a typhus epidemic, an encephalitis epidemic, famine, and weapons of war at the same time. It may not be true of modern military, but historically more troops died of disease than combat.

As for the Black Death, that's pretty well documented if you only bother to look.
But in the end it all comes down to people moving and contacting eachother. That is the bottom line.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 22, 2020, 10:54:05 pm
In Italy the trending is growth of 10x over 14 days, and appears to be stable at this rate - 17% per day. Measures take ~14 days to be effective (based on data from China - they started lockdown at 2k cases and finished at 80k.)

the new cases as percentage of previous total in the last 2 weeks:
24 11 23 21 17 20 17 13 13 13 15 15 14 10

jumps  mostly due to data from some regions lagging 3-4 times
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 22, 2020, 11:22:56 pm
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.

I'd rather say little problem with antibiotic resistant bacteria

As is often the way with these things those in know were making quite a lot of fuss about it back then. MRSA had been identified as a problem in the sixties and by around 1980 knowledge of increasing multi-drug resistance in bacteria was a commonplace among the scientific and medical community. One of the identified causes was use of antibiotics as 'growth promoters' in animal feed. It is only now that this practice is being finally banned, 40 years after anyone with a brain knew that it was a fundamentally stupid practice that was guaranteed to breed multi-drug resistant pathogens. Ditto the feminising effects of pollutants - one biochemistry lecturer I knew had been researching this on trout for several years back then. And the list goes on. The gap between what the scientific community has clearly identified needs action and the taking of action in political policy circles is huge and it takes along time for anything to happen.

No doubt somewhere there are dozens of academics who were treated as Cassandras (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra) about their warnings about future viral pandemics and attempts to get governments to develop solid preparations for when it finally happened. They have earned the right to feel smug, but I suspect they don't; I suspect they wish that they had had some way to force action before it was too late.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 23, 2020, 12:45:56 am
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?
Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

Yeah.
We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.

My original post has been ripped apart by few and then commented out by experts like by Dr. Cerebus who is using all today's technologies in all his hospitals around the World since 1980..  :P

When you would read my post in context you will get - it is about how you would "notice" current pandemic provided it happened 40y back (1980).
There are 3 examples related to the "Geopolitical situation in 1980" - ie. whether you would had been even able to get the real information about the pandemic in 1980, and how the pandemics could have been "medialized" in 1980 on both sides of the Iron Curtain.
My post did not elaborate the severity of such a pandemic in 1980 or in 2020.
Sure, in 1980 the covid would have been much more deadly as it is today (except you would be treated in the hospitals of Dr. Cerebus).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 23, 2020, 01:22:02 am
Sure, in 1980 the covid would have been much more deadly as it is today (except you would be treated in the hospitals of Dr. Cerebus).

Certainly more deadly, but it would have spread slower IMO and to fewer countries, and currently the most concerning issue is how much it's spreading.

Just as an illustration, wherever we live (in the western world), many people know at least one person that has traveled to China in the past months. You're more fortunate if this is not a close relative.
That's something that was extremely rare in the early 80's.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 23, 2020, 01:30:24 am
My original post has been ripped apart by few and then commented out by experts like by Dr. Cerebus who is using all today's technologies in all his hospitals around the World since 1980..  :P

Gibe all you like, but facts still beat uniformed opinions hands down every time. And please don't call me Doctor, you have to earn one of those by doing a PhD, and I never did. You can call me professor if you like, as that's merely a courtesy title that's often given to, in my experience, scumbags; I'd probably wear it well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr.B on March 23, 2020, 01:49:56 am
New Zealand to enter full lockdown within 48 hours.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level)

Many NZers have been pleading with the government to move hard and fast.
Fortunately they have listened.
We can live through the economic impact, we do not want a high death toll to go with it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on March 23, 2020, 01:54:57 am
Lowered GDP kills people too. Has anyone given an explanation for why Japan was able to weather the storm so well? Are they lying? Are they genetically less prone to get/spread it? What?

Or perhaps closing schools and lots of people wearing masks and observing government advice for hand washing is really "all" that was necessary? Increased hygiene seemed to be what nipped flu in the bud in Japan this season.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on March 23, 2020, 02:01:19 am
New Zealand to enter full lockdown within 48 hours.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level)

Many NZers have been pleading with the government to move hard and fast.
Fortunately they have listened.
We can live through the economic impact, we do not want a high death toll to go with it.
That isn't a lockdown, just progressive closures similar/identical to those being taken elsewhere (Australia, UK, etc). When you can't move freely, thats lockdown.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 23, 2020, 02:08:47 am
drussel, where do you get your numbers from? CDC doesn't report on weekends, and WHO's data is from Friday the 20th. And both of those agree on a figure of 15k.

I think it's important to choose a single and arguably reliable source rather than grabbing data from whatever pops up. I may be wrong, but in the US I would assume the final authority is the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and I assume they forward that to WHO as official data, which is why WHO data seems to lag 1 day behind.

I have been getting my latest-case data from what is generally considered the most authoritative worldwide source, the CSSE aggregation page at Johns Hopkins University....

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can download their daily aggregate data in .CSV format via their github page:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

I will admit right now that I was incorrect in my previous post on the number of new US cases that have been logged so far today.  I had inadvertently added the last two rows from New York and New Jersey twice (which I assume were essentially the results from yesterday's tests,) so my numbers were skewed up 4500+ cases....

The number added today in the US is "only" more like 9000 new cases, not the 13-something thousand that I thought it was when I quickly saw the inaccurate totals at the bottom of my spreadsheet when I hastily posted that comment before running out the door to one remaining jobsite, without actually fully importing the latest datasets...

Sorry...  My bad...

My working number now stands at 33,276 confirmed infected in the USA.

I'm sure the CDC will update their official numbers to reflect these latest state-by-state disclosures at some point in the next 24-72 hours or so.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 23, 2020, 02:15:06 am
New Zealand to enter full lockdown within 48 hours.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level)

Many NZers have been pleading with the government to move hard and fast.
Fortunately they have listened.
We can live through the economic impact, we do not want a high death toll to go with it.
The lads here are murmuring about grabbing their rifles and going bush for a week or two hunting.....well at least until their tucker runs out. Tempted to tag along.   :-\
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 23, 2020, 03:17:35 am
FYI - this is the Diamond Princess assembled from below data
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099517/japan-coronavirus-patients-diamond-princess/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099517/japan-coronavirus-patients-diamond-princess/)
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 (https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 23, 2020, 06:44:07 am
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.

I'd rather say little problem with antibiotic resistant bacteria

As is often the way with these things those in know were making quite a lot of fuss about it back then. MRSA had been identified as a problem in the sixties and by around 1980 knowledge of increasing multi-drug resistance in bacteria was a commonplace among the scientific and medical community.
[...]

I agree with you, but they were not as wide spread and causing as many problems and deaths as they do now... and worldwide

BTW antibiotics are a natural product, they are the weapons used by various species of microorganisms to fight each other so antibiotic resistant bacteria have been found even in old samples taken before penicillin had been ever used
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 23, 2020, 07:01:57 am
drussel, where do you get your numbers from? CDC doesn't report on weekends, and WHO's data is from Friday the 20th. And both of those agree on a figure of 15k.

I think it's important to choose a single and arguably reliable source rather than grabbing data from whatever pops up. I may be wrong, but in the US I would assume the final authority is the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and I assume they forward that to WHO as official data, which is why WHO data seems to lag 1 day behind.

I have been getting my latest-case data from what is generally considered the most authoritative worldwide source, the CSSE aggregation page at Johns Hopkins University....

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can download their daily aggregate data in .CSV format via their github page:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

I will admit right now that I was incorrect in my previous post on the number of new US cases that have been logged so far today.  I had inadvertently added the last two rows from New York and New Jersey twice (which I assume were essentially the results from yesterday's tests,) so my numbers were skewed up 4500+ cases....

The number added today in the US is "only" more like 9000 new cases, not the 13-something thousand that I thought it was when I quickly saw the inaccurate totals at the bottom of my spreadsheet when I hastily posted that comment before running out the door to one remaining jobsite, without actually fully importing the latest datasets...

Sorry...  My bad...

My working number now stands at 33,276 confirmed infected in the USA.

I'm sure the CDC will update their official numbers to reflect these latest state-by-state disclosures at some point in the next 24-72 hours or so.

I'm pretty sure reality will catch up with your predictions in no time. As long as we're in exponential growth, any number will serve as a prediction if it is high enough. It might just be a day or two off.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 23, 2020, 07:24:43 am
What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
Or German authorities don't report people in intensive care because of privacy laws or sumthing?
(bit similar in here, they don't publish every detail including past sexual history of the coronavirus fatalities...)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Ranayna on March 23, 2020, 08:25:44 am
To be honest, I do not follow the numbers, except for what I glimpse in the newspaper and occasionally on the radio. So I cannot comment on those, except that the effects are currently still quite low in my area. We have cases, but not many. The confirmed cases I saw in the paper on Saturday (so likely numbers from Friday) where in the single or low double digits for each district.
Despite going shopping roughly every two days, I have not yet seen any essentials out of stock in the supermarkets. Low stocks, yes, but not fully out.
I am living in a semi-rural area in the north-west of Germany.

Anyway, since yesterday, Germany has enacted what I would translate to "Movement Limitations".

- All non-essential customer facing businesses must close. Exceptions are: Supermarkets, Pharmacies, Doctors. Restaurants can only offer takeout or delivery. This is new, since before yesterday some businesses like barbers, "beauty shops", and similar, where still allowed to open.
- No more than two people may meet on public property. Exclusions only for families or people living in the same household.
- A mandatory distance of 1.5 meters to other people, where possible, has to be kept.

Stuff already in place for longer:
- All public events are cancelled
- Private events are either "strongly discouraged" or also prohibited, I'm not sure in that regard
- Schools are closed until at least Easter
- A generic travel advisory has been declared.

Discussions of fully tracking every citizen via their mobile phones have been shelved, for now at least.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 23, 2020, 09:41:47 am
What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
Or German authorities don't report people in intensive care because of privacy laws or sumthing?
(bit similar in here, they don't publish every detail including past sexual history of the coronavirus fatalities...)

Korea got a low mortality rate because most of infected people were young women (one of the lowest risk group)
Germany deaths figures are suspect. Let's hope they are real.
Other countries are obviously cheating (Russia, Iran). I'm afraid for poor nations that have even much less resources.

I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country   cases     deaths
Italy       67-68k   6.3-6.4k
US         42-48k   500-550
Spain     31-34k   2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 23, 2020, 10:29:28 am
Checking the stats this morning and the logarithmic graph is starting to look like an exponential looks on a normal graph.

:(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 23, 2020, 10:37:31 am
What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
I think Germany does a lot more testing of people with mild symptoms.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 23, 2020, 10:48:08 am
JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 23, 2020, 11:00:41 am
JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).
I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 23, 2020, 11:40:30 am
JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).
I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.

It will pretty much looks the same as cases, just transposed 2 orders of magnitude.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 23, 2020, 11:57:59 am
JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).
I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.

It will pretty much looks the same as cases, just transposed 2 orders of magnitude.
No, it won't because every country has a different level of testing which also changes over time. In the NL for example you see 23 cases per death but in Germany you see the number of cases per death sliding down from >300 cases per death to 234 cases per death currently. And the areas in the NL and Germany with lots of infections are next to eachother (the virus got spread due to spring carnaval). IOW: the number of cases tells you absolutely nothing about how the virus is spreading.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 23, 2020, 12:01:23 pm
Our government website MyGov failed today. The minister responsible for said it was a hacker's DOS attack which was complete and utter :bullshit:. The real cause was excessive demand that the site crashed. He got caught out and had to retract the lie. If the wankers cannot be honest, no-one will trust them which will just make matters worse. Centrelink today (the welfare payments government organisation) became a complete fiasco. The government even allowed a cruise ship load of people to disembark in Sydney without being tested and now they discover that some of the passengers had corona virus. An effing debacle if there ever was one.

Good planning, good management, good engineering, good decisions and good leadership is what we all need. The Australian federal government has failed on all counts. After this pandemic is over, they will be judged accordingly.

Those in the "Gig Economy" who have lost their jobs are being told to wait 5 weeks to get their first dole money. The politicians have legislated to allow the poor to dig into their retirement funds to get them through. These politicians on bloated salaries won't be digging into their overly generous taxpayer funded retirement funds to help them through. And I bet they won't be lowering the rents to those who rent their investment properties.

As for this little man armchair engineer, I will be donating time and money to help out those in more need than me. I suggest we all do a bit more beyond our normal giving or just what we might just do for ourselves.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 23, 2020, 12:10:57 pm
JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).
I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.

It will pretty much looks the same as cases, just transposed 2 orders of magnitude.

Deaths per country - that could be tricky to report, see below countries with >1000 confirmed and <0.5% (an quick example only)..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 23, 2020, 12:35:26 pm
I wonder if all the countries demonststrating a linear increase of cases are basically showing their testing capacity only (Iran, for example). South Korea might be an exception.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 23, 2020, 12:47:49 pm
To date we have had seven pass away in Australia which have been attributed to coronavirus, these were 3 males and 4 females. With all due respect the order and age are as follows: Male 78, Female 95, Male 82, Female 77, Female 90, Male 87, Female 81.   :(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 23, 2020, 01:07:46 pm
Deaths per country - that could be tricky to report, see below countries with >1000 confirmed and <0.5% (an quick example only)..

Sure, those numbers show:
Germany, Austria, Israel, Czechia, Norway deaths at [ 111, 16, 1, 1, 8 ]

but they also only show:
Germany, Austria, Israel, Czechia, Norway recovered at [ 422, 9, 37, 6, 6 ]

It takes at least two to three weeks on average for a case to reach an outcome. You cannot just look at the total cases and assume that none of those people are going to die.  Those places where you say the number of deaths are low are just still early enough on the curve that they haven't started getting many known outcomes yet, good or bad. 

You can't make an accurate calculation of the CFR that early in an outbreak.  You need outcomes.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 23, 2020, 01:14:38 pm
Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 :phew:

Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report (https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html)).

Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: aseok on March 23, 2020, 01:20:31 pm
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 23, 2020, 01:53:37 pm
Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 :phew:

Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report (https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html)).

Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
The problem with this virus is the speed at which it spreads, so heath care systems can't cope.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 23, 2020, 02:06:06 pm
Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 :phew:

Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report (https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html)).

Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820

I wouldn't derive anything from German numbers yet. Too few cases with outcome and the most vulnerable tend to die first and quickly, but there have to be many more cases in critical condition (which are not being reported as such, as far as I can say).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 23, 2020, 02:09:51 pm
Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 :phew:

Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report (https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html)).

Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
The problem with this virus is the speed at which it spreads, so heath care systems can't cope.
Sure, the assumption with that naive model is Germany masters the "flattening the curve".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 23, 2020, 03:26:31 pm
 :palm: :palm: :palm:

-> Nigeria records chloroquine poisoning after Trump endorses it for coronavirus treatment (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/africa/chloroquine-trump-nigeria-intl/index.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 23, 2020, 04:11:13 pm
I agree with you, but they were not as wide spread and causing as many problems and deaths as they do now... and worldwide

Agreed, but the situation now was a preventable situation if some in the political policy realm had listened to the warning voices, and thinking about that prompted me to think about the parallels with the current situation.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 23, 2020, 04:59:46 pm
https://www.caducee.net/actualite-medicale/14792/un-collectif-de-professionnels-de-sante-saisit-la-cour-de-justice-de-la-republique-contre-agnes-buzyn-et-edouard-philippe.html (https://www.caducee.net/actualite-medicale/14792/un-collectif-de-professionnels-de-sante-saisit-la-cour-de-justice-de-la-republique-contre-agnes-buzyn-et-edouard-philippe.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 23, 2020, 06:10:31 pm
We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F)

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 23, 2020, 06:24:48 pm
light at the end of the tunnel (just in Italy at the moment) ?

luckily my forecast regarding Italy (total cases: 67-68k, deaths:  6.3-6.4k) was pessimistic

we are at 64k cases and 6.1k deaths (exact figures: 63'927 and 6'077)

for two consecutive days amount of new deaths has been lower than the previous day and new case increase as percentage of previous count is getting lower and lower

let's hope the next days will confirm the trend and that the rest of the world will asap experience a similar trend
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 23, 2020, 06:28:40 pm
https://www.caducee.net/actualite-medicale/14792/un-collectif-de-professionnels-de-sante-saisit-la-cour-de-justice-de-la-republique-contre-agnes-buzyn-et-edouard-philippe.html (https://www.caducee.net/actualite-medicale/14792/un-collectif-de-professionnels-de-sante-saisit-la-cour-de-justice-de-la-republique-contre-agnes-buzyn-et-edouard-philippe.html)

Here, people are rather hot. Three days ago , have been detained a man for threating to  1 Minister Pedro Sanchez( alias:"Falconetti") by the covid management.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.europapress.es%2Fmurcia%2Fnoticia-detenido-joven-difundir-video-amenazas-pedro-sanchez-gestion-crisis-coronavirus-20200320115932.html (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.europapress.es%2Fmurcia%2Fnoticia-detenido-joven-difundir-video-amenazas-pedro-sanchez-gestion-crisis-coronavirus-20200320115932.html)

After the quarantine, maybe could have a popular  uprising.

Yeah. Difference here is that this is a collective of about 600 physicians, not just a random guy on Youtube...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 23, 2020, 06:40:06 pm
We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F)

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?

If true, it would be a good reason to carry a revolver....   -   it probably isn't true, or a one-off if true.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 23, 2020, 06:54:16 pm
We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F)

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?

Yes, the "Corona Parties" have been happening, and I've also heard some stories of idiot pranksters coughing on elderly people and shouting "Corona, Corona". Crisis brings out the best and the worst of people at the same time.

Not sure to which extent the parties are still happening, but people are getting increasingly scared with the numbers reported by RKI and others. Since the weekend, groups of more than two are prohibited outside, with core families (parents + children) counting as one person (they share the same germs anyway). Note that this is not a lock-down yet, we're trying hard to prevent it. Public transport is still on and we can go outside to take a walk or to the grocery store, but are held to keep a distance. I went for a walk with my two kids today and as far as I can say, people are keeping discipline (the small sample I encountered at least did). Still, I live in a low-density area. I have no idea how it looks in the big cities.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 23, 2020, 06:55:32 pm
I wonder whether the Corona Extra will have to change names when the crisis is over...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 23, 2020, 07:00:07 pm
let's hope the next days will confirm the trend and that the rest of the world will asap experience a similar trend

I hope so, too. I watching the new cases reported for China. I hope the second wave is not already starting there.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 23, 2020, 07:11:47 pm
Update to the Masks:

A Germnan Podcast with virologist Mr. Drosten discussed the Topic at series 19 of the Podcast from today: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html (https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html)
Transcription will appear here during the next hours https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Coronavirus-Update-Die-Podcast-Folgen-als-Skript,podcastcoronavirus102.html (https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Coronavirus-Update-Die-Podcast-Folgen-als-Skript,podcastcoronavirus102.html)


The short summary is:

Yes, we should all wear masks, but NOT for selfprotection, but to protect everyone around us if we were infected. But: We should wear selfmade masks, because the good masks, suitable for selfprotection are now needed by the doctors.

The reason is exactly to protect others if you are infected, because you can be infected and spreading the virus without having any sympthoms and without knowing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 23, 2020, 07:12:17 pm
I wonder whether the Corona Extra will have to change names when the crisis is over...

I hope not!  :)

It is actually a very good beer with a slice of lime, on a hot day, working on a classic car under a shade tree...   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 23, 2020, 07:16:54 pm
I wonder whether the Corona Extra will have to change names when the crisis is over...

I hope not!  :)

It is actually a very good beer with a slice of lime, on a hot day, working on a classic car under a shade tree...

The depends on whether they're still around when this is over. If yes, then they'll soar. Everyone will want to have one to celebrate their "victory".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 23, 2020, 07:37:00 pm
Yes, we should all wear masks, but NOT for selfprotection, but to protect everyone around us if we were infected. But: We should wear selfmade masks, because the good masks, suitable for selfprotection are now needed by the doctors.
Exactly.  Even something as simple as a winter scarf (the thick woolly kind, that will trap moisture and droplets in exhalations) will help a lot, for those who dislike the idea of wearing a mask.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 23, 2020, 07:52:02 pm
Seen reports from UK researches today that in 30% cases people reported loss of smell and loss of taste. They are looking now whether to accept this as an early warning for even non-symptomatic people and add to self-isolation rules.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 23, 2020, 08:15:58 pm
Heh, I've heard another funny story recently. Take it with a pint of salt, though, it's about the toilet paper rush. The source not a scientific paper or anything, just two guys in quarantine in Puerto Rico, one of them has Crohn's disease and is on Humira, and consequently he's a bit obsessed with the topic. They're photographers, they cannot go out and do their job right now so they decided to run a video journal of things happening all around USA and the world with respect to Covid-19. Here's the youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnvgtzmvlb6d58d9BbOKuMA (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnvgtzmvlb6d58d9BbOKuMA)

The story goes: Supposedly, there's been a run on toilet paper in China as well, before or around the time where the outbreak started. And as it happens, in about 20% of cases, SARS-CoV-2 causes diarrhea. So the guy theorized, when the outbreak started, a lot of people were in dire need of massive amounts of toilet paper, while others were watching and thinking, "what do they know that we don't?" and started hoarding. Now, is this what started the toilet paper run the US? It happened in Germany, too, but I cannot remember anyone mentioning a massive wave of diarrhea that could be responsible ;) Over here, the shit hasn't hit the fan yet. It's still on its way :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: -gb- on March 23, 2020, 08:22:19 pm
Quote
Even something as simple as a winter scarf (the thick woolly kind, that will trap moisture and droplets in exhalations) will help a lot, for those who dislike the idea of wearing a mask.
Yes, this is also said in the linked podcast.

And simple masks from paper or cloth can be reused. clothmasks can be washed at 60°C and papermasks can be put in the kitchenoven at some temperature which is not too low, but not burning the paper.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 23, 2020, 08:33:53 pm
A soggy mask can be a very effective vector though. People may also feel protected and act more casually and sloppy. This kind of behaviour has been shown in people wearing gloves.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 23, 2020, 08:54:16 pm
I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country   cases     deaths
Italy       67-68k   6.3-6.4k
US         42-48k   500-550
Spain     31-34k   2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)

I was not much wrong (apart Italy - let's hope it is a trend rather than just ordinary fluctuations)
current (12 hours after forecast) figures are:
country   cases                deaths
Italy       64k (63,927)       6.1k (6,077)
US         42k (41,708)       573
Spain     33k (33,089)       2.2k (2,207)

I hope my weekly forecast about US will be wrong (of course I hope less cases and deaths than what I wrote)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 23, 2020, 08:58:20 pm
I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country   cases     deaths
Italy       67-68k   6.3-6.4k
US         42-48k   500-550
Spain     31-34k   2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)

I was not much wrong (apart Italy - let's hope it is a trend rather than just ordinary fluctuations)
current (12 hours after forecast) figures are:
country   cases                deaths
Italy       64k (63,927)       6.1k (6,077)
US         42k (41,708)       573
Spain     33k (33,089)       2.2k (2,207)

I hope my weekly forecast about US will be wrong (of course I hope less cases and deaths than what I wrote)

The US looks to me like it is accelerating, rather than flattening out...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: chris_leyson on March 23, 2020, 09:07:38 pm
UK goes into shutdown from tonight. ALL non essential shops will close except for food, pharmacies, banks and post offices. Gatherings of more than two people are prohibited. Travel for food or medicinal supplies is permitted as well as travel for essential work. Essential work, apart from the obvious, is not yet defined.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: dietert1 on March 23, 2020, 09:10:45 pm
Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.
When the virus enters the body it needs time to spread and during that time the human body starts reacting, but it also needs time to produce virus killing antibodies.
So they assume that the immune response may be effective when the initial infection enters nose or mouth. If the initial infection happens inside the lungs (after taking a deep breath of virus aerosol), that person may be lost. Today on German TV they showed a 41 year old strong man who had been skiiing in Austria and is now close to death. My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

In Germany about 1 of 1000 is infected, assuming a moderate factor two or three above the official numbers of those tested positive. So, when you meet 10 people chances are 1 : 100 that you are at risk. This risk is integrated over the next months and over all members of a family. So we should think a lot before meeting somebody else.

Regards, Dieter
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 23, 2020, 09:15:28 pm
Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.
When the virus enters the body it needs time to spread and during that time the human body starts reacting, but it also needs time to produce virus killing antibodies.
So they assume that the immune response may be effective when the initial infection enters nose or mouth. If the initial infection happens inside the lungs (after taking a deep breath of virus aerosol), that person may be lost. Today on German TV they showed a 41 year old strong man who had been skiiing in Austria and is now close to death. My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

In Germany about 1 of 1000 is infected, assuming a moderate factor two or three above the official numbers of those tested positive. So, when you meet 10 people chances are 1 : 100 that you are at risk. This risk is integrated over the next months and over all members of a family. So we should think a lot before meeting somebody else.

Regards, Dieter

I've just finished listening to that episode. This must have escaped my attention.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 23, 2020, 09:51:47 pm
My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

Yeah, the nose is a good barrier (at least much better) compared to directly breathing through the mouth. Some people have more of a habit of breathing through the mouth at least partly, usually not consciously.

Of course, if someone's already got a cold with a clogged nose, they will tend to breath through the mouth almost exclusively, which I guess would put them even more at risk.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 23, 2020, 10:18:43 pm

Seen reports from UK researches today that in 30% cases people reported loss of smell and loss of taste.
They are looking now whether to accept this as an early warning for even non-symptomatic people and add to self-isolation rules.



No reason for alarm or concern,
people with 'loss of smell and loss of taste' have been the the junk food industry's best customers for decades  :clap:   

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 23, 2020, 11:37:37 pm

Seen reports from UK researches today that in 30% cases people reported loss of smell and loss of taste.
They are looking now whether to accept this as an early warning for even non-symptomatic people and add to self-isolation rules.



No reason for alarm or concern,
people with 'loss of smell and loss of taste' have been the the junk food industry's best customers for decades  :clap:

Maybe junk food is a virus. ::)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 24, 2020, 12:52:29 am
We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F)

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?

Yes, the "Corona Parties" have been happening, and I've also heard some stories of idiot pranksters coughing on elderly people and shouting "Corona, Corona". Crisis brings out the best and the worst of people at the same time...


The crisis also brings out the clowns.

I heard someone sing a parody of "My Sharona" by The Knack called "My Corona", heard on UHF CB. It might have been a truck driver on the freeway delivering toilet paper for all I know, but whoever it was he was hilarious :-DD.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 24, 2020, 03:25:34 am
Dr. Thomas Cowan, MD, found the source of this virus ( well, other ones too)

https://www.bitchute.com/video/XV4nqpXf4s71/ (https://www.bitchute.com/video/XV4nqpXf4s71/)

(Skip to 3:30)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 24, 2020, 05:11:06 am
As much as I hate to reply to myself....
Edit: Found the actual quote:
Quote
Chinese Red Cross Vice President Sun Shuopeng warned Italians that they were risking lives by not adhering to the novel coronavirus lockdown. He made the comments after visiting Milan in the hardest-hit region of Italy, which has recorded 41,035 cases and 3,405 deaths. “Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by COVID-19, the lockdown measures are very lax,” the veteran of the Wuhan epidemic fight said Thursday. “I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masks.” Sun warned that the resistance to the lockdown will prove deadly. “I don’t know what people here are thinking. We really have to stop our usual economic activities and our usual human interactions. We have to stay at home and make every effort to save lives. It is worth putting every cost we have into saving lives.”

I happened across a clip that includes the original footage I had seen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs3wR39tI3Q&feature=youtu.be&t=35 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs3wR39tI3Q&feature=youtu.be&t=35)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 24, 2020, 06:57:26 am
The US looks to me like it is accelerating, rather than flattening out...

yes, it is flattening just in Italy as first quarantine measures have been taken weeks ago

it does take time for those measure to show any result and yet we can't be sure they are working yet (even if new cases figures as percentage of previous total amount have been displaying a constant lowering trend)
let's hope for the best

unfortunately other countries have not learnt from mistakes in Italy and acted slowly so they shall have to wait a bit longer to see any improvement
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 24, 2020, 08:16:54 am
I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?
Quite possibly both. It can be true yet so rare that it for all intents and purposes doesn't happen.

Seen two reports locally of groups of kids shouting at police (fairly normal), but coughing on each other and claiming they all have the virus and for the police to stay away.

Also reports in England of groups of lads coughing on an old couple.  They were tackled and beaten by members of the public which resulted in injuries all round including to the old people.

https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/belfast-news/coronavirus-northern-ireland-psni-hit-17963522 (https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/belfast-news/coronavirus-northern-ireland-psni-hit-17963522)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543)

When they shut the schools, this happened across the country.
https://www.irishnews.com/coronavirus/2020/03/21/news/coronavirus-end-of-school-parties-held-despite-impending-catastrophe--1874331/ (https://www.irishnews.com/coronavirus/2020/03/21/news/coronavirus-end-of-school-parties-held-despite-impending-catastrophe--1874331/)

As someone said.  Let us just remember who they were.  When this is over we can deal with them appropriately.  Personally I think being hung up by the arms in the town squares for all to see.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 24, 2020, 08:27:33 am
Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 24, 2020, 08:59:26 am
Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.

I think you dropped a digit. At a 10 day stay, each bed can do 36 cases per year. Capacity is 30,000 * 36 = 1,080,000 cases requiring ICU care per year.

Or look at it another way, with 30,000 beds, and the average stay is 10 days, then peak load is 30,000/10 = 3,000 new cases requiring ICU per day. As a check that gives 3000 * 365 = 1,095,000 ICU cases per year.

So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 24, 2020, 09:32:28 am
Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.

I think you dropped a digit. At a 10 day stay, each bed can do 36 cases per year. Capacity is 30,000 * 36 = 1,080,000 cases requiring ICU care per year.

Or look at it another way, with 30,000 beds, and the average stay is 10 days, then peak load is 30,000/10 = 3,000 new cases requiring ICU per day. As a check that gives 3000 * 365 = 1,095,000 ICU cases per year.

So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.

Damn, you are right, I lost a zero somewhere.

Makes it just more unrealistic scenario even if my ballpark numbers would be way off.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 24, 2020, 09:47:55 am
...

So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.

Damn, you are right, I lost a zero somewhere.

Makes it just more unrealistic scenario even if my ballpark numbers would be way off.

The MIT Press Reader came to the same conclusion:

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough/ (https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough/)

As did Imperial College London:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 11:03:55 am
Instead of looking for "magic drug", waiting on Santa Claus with a bag with billions of face masks, and building millions of new ICUs with ventilators made by GM, simply follow the advice which works well:

1. always wear a DIY mask when outside your home,
2. stay at home,
3. do social distancing,
4. wash your hands.

Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.

And your current ICUs will stay half empty.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 24, 2020, 11:10:49 am
Instead of looking for "magic drug", waiting on Santa Claus with a bag with billions of face masks, and building millions of new ICUs with ventilators made by GM, simply follow the advice which works well - always wear a DIY mask when outside your home, stay at home, do social distancing, wash your hands.
Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.
And your current ICUs will stay half empty.

Here's some detail on testing of home-made masks somebody pointed me at today. Of course not FDA approved or anything
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 11:34:23 am
@hamster_nz:
As has been said here several times: DIY mask works "good" for droplets you are breathing OUT.
Therefore your Country needs ALL CITIZENS shall wear the DIY face mask when outside of home.


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 24, 2020, 11:56:48 am
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?
Leo
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 12:22:55 pm
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?
Over here nobody wears a mask but most people do keep a distance. Keeping hands clean is also important. The virus can stay alive for many hours (assume up to a day) on many surfaces so if you go in a shop then it is very easy the get the virus from the trolley, baskets, doors, cashier's desk, etc. One infected person can easely infect multiple people that way over the course of many hours. All it takes is rubbing your eyes to transfer the virus from/to your hands. Yesterday I went shopping and sanitized my hands before entering the shops and after leaving the shops.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 12:34:59 pm
Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.
I found the episode now, it was in episode 15 already. But actually he said, "this is just an idea, not an explanation"
Quote
Ich sage jetzt ganz bewusst nicht Erklärung, sondern ich sage eine Hypothese. Eine Idee, die erklären könnte, warum einige Patienten, obwohl sie sehr jung sind, trotzdem einen schnellen, schweren Verlauf kriegen

Source: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/15-Coronavirus-Update-Infizierte-werden-offenbar-immun,podcastcoronavirus136.html (https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/15-Coronavirus-Update-Infizierte-werden-offenbar-immun,podcastcoronavirus136.html)

So, it's just one of many plausible hypotheses, that are worth testing through the scientific method.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 01:44:18 pm
I've just returned from shopping. A supermarket 30x60m. Around 50 people there. All wearing face masks. About 20% wearing gloves as well. I spent 14 minutes there. Every half of a minute I heard somebody sneezing or coughing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 24, 2020, 02:30:16 pm
Here is a ballpark calculation for you.
Leo
I've just returned from shopping. A supermarket 30x60m. Around 50 people there. All wearing face masks. About 20% wearing gloves as well. I spent 14 minutes there. Every half of a minute I heard somebody sneezing or coughing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 24, 2020, 02:40:46 pm
Here is a ballpark calculation for you.
Leo
I've just returned from shopping. A supermarket 30x60m. Around 50 people there. All wearing face masks. About 20% wearing gloves as well. I spent 14 minutes there. Every half of a minute I heard somebody sneezing or coughing.
That's only part of the story. The question is the probability of you catching it from one of them?

If we can get the R0 down to below 1, then the number of cases will fall and it will die out eventually.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 02:41:56 pm
Masks are a double edged sword. They only really contribute something when the wearer is infectious and in that case the wearer shouldn't be outside. In all other cases it's a soggy rag which may allow viruses that landed on it to remain viable longer. It's also likely to shift and itch which means people may poke at it and contaminate themselves.
Ah, please. The main difficulty with this virus is that people spread it unknowingly because they hardly feel any symptoms and therefore have no urge to stay inside. Or they just have a cold and don't think they contracted the virus. If they were really sick they'd probably be in their beds. So if everyone wears a mask, DIY or other, it's going to help a lot!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 24, 2020, 02:44:45 pm
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?
Leo
Funny, I have same mask and is that 3M goggles too?
(https://i.imgur.com/bIuAWRAm.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 24, 2020, 02:49:45 pm
Yes! I've got GVS half-face and full-face mask, 3M goggles and half-face mask, disposable gloves - the full monty.  We are in this for a very long time.
When I started wearing a mask (but without goggles) two weeks ago most (if not all) people around thought I am an idiot.
I love my GVS mask for it's made in Britain!
Leo
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?
Leo
Funny, I have same mask and is that 3M goggles too?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 02:54:29 pm
FYI - Today's information from Czechia's chief of the covid19 Task force (Czech TV briefing, face masks to wear outside your home is mandatory there for 2w already), I quote:
1. general public should avoid the respirators with those "exhalation valves" as they provide low resistance during exhalation, we want to lower down the amount of droplets which fly OUT from your mouth and nose..
2. who wants to wear those respirators with valves for whatever reason, please cover it with a textile mask in addition..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 03:23:15 pm
..
When I started wearing a mask (but without goggles) two weeks ago most (if not all) people around thought I am an idiot.

As I wrote before that attitude of the general public towards face masks can change within a day - two.
When the authorities explain the reason for wearing the face masks, explain the mechanism, and request that (in CZ under beefy fine), and, MOST NOTABLY - the authorities start to wear the masks everywhere and the general public can see them in TV every day wearing it. It works that way perfectly, I can confirm herewith..

PS: NY governor Mr. Cuomo just holds a briefing (CNN). If he wore a mask during the briefing, the next day the half of NY people would wear a mask.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: CatalinaWOW on March 24, 2020, 04:40:11 pm
The dimensions of the mask problem were made clear to me when it was noted that one (one!) hospital in NY is burning through 40,000 masks a week, and they have not reached the expected peak of their infections.  I saw one report that the pre-emergency production rate was something like 5 million a month and various means were being used to raise that rate to 25 million which seemed like plenty until I saw that consumption number.  The consumption number doesn't seem totally out of line when you think of a thousand bed hospital.  It is only a little over six masks/day per bed.

Seems like creativity on re-use is going to be required.  Washing, baking, soaking in alcohol and drying and various other options (along with methods to do it in high volume) seems worth exploring, as tooling up to produce more in these quantities is not an overnight job.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 04:55:17 pm
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?

I have seen a few people over here with masks (outside of food shop/pharmacy workers), I'd say maybe like 20%, which surprised me as there's a definite shortage of masks, and the masks don't look DIY. Not sure where they get them from.

I get out very little these days as recommended, but when I have to, I haven't worn a mask yet. I try to stay away from anyone by like over 2 m, and when some stupid unfortunately passes by closer, I just stop inhaling. And of course I try to keep my mouth shut at all times.

I'll consider making DIY masks though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 04:55:59 pm
Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.

Can we make soups out of them? :P
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 04:57:27 pm
Ah, please. The main difficulty with this virus is that people spread it unknowingly because they hardly feel any symptoms and therefore have no urge to stay inside. Or they just have a cold and don't think they contracted the virus. If they were really sick they'd probably be in their beds. So if everyone wears a mask, DIY or other, it's going to help a lot!
No! Thats very likely not how it works for reasons that were just explained. Masks aren't a magic solution and in the hands of the general public very likely a huge risk. These aren't health professionals nor food professionals. If you don't use personal protection properly there's a very real chance of making things a lot worse. Touch a mask just once and all bets are off.
Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 04:58:31 pm
Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.

Can we make soups out of them? :P

That depends on your taste. If you commonly eat from your node - suit yourself.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 24, 2020, 04:59:49 pm
As far as cleaning masks for reuse goes: Hospitals used to reuse a lot of things, fabric masks and so on, but in recent history medical equipment has moved from reuse (with suitable cleaning) to single use disposable items. Hospitals used to have huge banks of autoclaves and staff that knew how to use them - now, I just don't know if they have anything more than the most minimal facilities for handling reusable surgical instruments.

On the subject of cleaning masks for home reuse, jury rigging an autoclave is a real practical possibility. Basically anyone that has a pressure cooker has an autoclave. Put some water in the bottom, put something suitable in as a shelf to keep items above the (boiling) water level. Put in items to be sterilised, close, run up to pressure, leave there 30 minutes (a pure guess, research needed), leave to cool down, decant sterile items.

When you stack up a proper autoclave you put items to be sterilised inside paper bags which are then sealed with specialised autoclave tape. Autoclave tape will withstand the heat and moisture, often has an indicator that shows whether it has been through an autoclave cycle, and seals the bag afterward, keeping the contents sterile. If jury rigging, masking tape might work.  A typical lab autoclave cycle is anything from 30 minutes to overnight depending on what you're sterilising from a tray of small instruments up to 2 litre bottles full of culture medium.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: peter-h on March 24, 2020, 05:00:28 pm
"Therefore your Country needs ALL CITIZENS shall wear the DIY face mask when outside of home."

That's way too simplistic.

If you live in a packed city then yes.

If you live in the countryside, or are in the countryside, or are anywhere where there is nobody around (say an empty street) then wearing a mask is pointless.

The problem is that most of the general public are totally clueless about just about anything beyond how to eat a Big Mac, and reproduce. Here in the UK we have just had a big clampdown and it came a day after they got restaurants etc to shut. Millions thought it was a great holiday and went out in big crowds, everywhere, including the countryside which was packed. No way was the 2m spacing observed.

You could tell the public 1000 times how this thing is spread and they still won't get it. Most people are totally clueless about basic hygiene; sit in a cafe and watch them touch all the toilet door handles and then eat with their hands. Washing hands in the toilet isn't much good if you then touch the door handle. But most people will never get this. If there is something going around which you really don't watch to catch (like this thing) then you have to use smarter procedures and actually think about how this works.

Here we have mostly pretty smart people but out there...??
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 05:04:37 pm
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3075289/china-boosts-face-mask-production-capacity-450-cent-month (https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3075289/china-boosts-face-mask-production-capacity-450-cent-month)
Quote
Total daily capacity rose to 110 million from 20 million in February with 3,000 new entrants; China made half of the global output in 2019
Carmakers BYD and SAIC, iPhone assembler Foxconn and oil company Sinopec are among ‘new faces’ in the industry
China's daily output of face masks reached 116 million units as of Saturday, 12 times the figure reported on Feb. 1 as factories of all stripes crank up new production lines to meet a surge in demands, the National Development and Reform Commission said
The biggest public health crisis in two decades has enticed 3,000 newcomers to the industry this year, according to Sina news portal, adding to a field of 4,000 who produced 4.2 billion face masks last year or half the world’s output, according to government data.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 05:11:32 pm
Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.

Yep. As we have said multiple times, the places where it doesn't work is conveniently where mask stocks are too low. :popcorn:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 05:31:06 pm
Now, let us assume we are all here on the EEVblog people who can "count till 10"  :D

When a "barrier" consisting of 2+ layers of a fabric/textile sheets would decrease the number of infectious droplets flying OUT your mouth or nose by 30% (that is only 1/3 of claimed efficiency by some "experts"), would the R0
1. increase
2. stay unchanged
3. decrease
?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 05:38:30 pm
Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.
Does it work? That's assuming a fair bit of causality where there may be none. Meanwhile the behaviour of people I referred to has been actually researched by the CDC. If they recommend masks then go ahead but thinking you're doing good while you may be doing a lot of harm isn't what we need right now.
I don't get it. Everybody, especially in the USA, have been using scare tactics to get people moving. Nothing moves people quicker than fear. But this virus has been played down by everyone to the level of "a bad cold" and even with the evidence from Italy and Spain in front of their very eyes, they claim "it cannot happen here, because!".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 24, 2020, 05:56:45 pm
Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.
Does it work? That's assuming a fair bit of causality where there may be none. Meanwhile the behaviour of people I referred to has been actually researched by the CDC. If they recommend masks then go ahead but thinking you're doing good while you may be doing a lot of harm isn't what we need right now.
I don't get it. Everybody, especially in the USA, have been using scare tactics to get people moving. Nothing moves people quicker than fear. But this virus has been played down by everyone to the level of "a bad cold" and even with the evidence from Italy and Spain in front of their very eyes, they claim "it cannot happen here, because!".

The problem is, their leader already claimed 1st in advanced and proudly, that this virus will eventually gone by it self in just next few months, and also shouted out loud that the virus histeria is used by his political opposition to hurt him.

So what do you expect ? When the next real threats and new dangerously escalating situations popping out, the strong and fanatic supporters will still see these as fake news.  :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 06:36:34 pm
Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.
Does it work? That's assuming a fair bit of causality where there may be none. Meanwhile the behaviour of people I referred to has been actually researched by the CDC. If they recommend masks then go ahead but thinking you're doing good while you may be doing a lot of harm isn't what we need right now.

In South Korea, there was no real confinement to speak of - from all witnessing I've got, people were almost living their lives as usual, few shops/companies shut down, and almost everyone with a mask. Meanwhile, we keep saying it doesn't work, yet we had to confine people in a lot stricter way than they ever did in SK, and we still don't know what's going to happen.

Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 24, 2020, 06:57:02 pm

Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.

[irony mode on]  Do medical practitioners know what they are doing???    Typical, wasting our hard earned resources on unnecessary vanity purchases!!  [irony mode off]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 24, 2020, 06:58:04 pm
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.

Do you have evidence for this assertion or is it just an assumption?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 24, 2020, 06:59:55 pm
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.

Do you have evidence for this assertion or is it just an assumption?

Never seen doctors and nurses wear masks in operating theaters etc.?  Not sure what point you are trying to make...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 07:00:36 pm
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.

Do you have evidence for this assertion or is it just an assumption?

I absolutely do have evidence.

But maybe it's just all a sad costume party? :popcorn:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 24, 2020, 07:05:46 pm
:palm: :palm: :palm:

-> Nigeria records chloroquine poisoning after Trump endorses it for coronavirus treatment (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/africa/chloroquine-trump-nigeria-intl/index.html)

-> Fearing coronavirus, Arizona man dies after taking a form of chloroquine used to treat aquariums (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/arizona-coronavirus-chloroquine-death/index.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sal Ammoniac on March 24, 2020, 07:32:39 pm
-> Fearing coronavirus, Arizona man dies after taking a form of chloroquine used to treat aquariums (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/arizona-coronavirus-chloroquine-death/index.html)

More chlorine for the gene pool...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 24, 2020, 07:39:48 pm
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.

Do you have evidence for this assertion or is it just an assumption?

I absolutely do have evidence.

Well I'd be interested to see it, because I took the trouble to check the CDC recommendations for infection control (the CDC ones simply because they were easy to find, follow links  here [url=https://www.cdc.gov/hai/prevent/ppe.html]https://www.cdc.gov/hai/prevent/ppe.html (https://www.cdc.gov/hai/prevent/ppe.html)[/url]) and these do not recommend the routine wearing of masks by medical staff for infection control, only in specific circumstances. Next to each recommendation they call out the strength of the evidential basis for that recommendation. Folks here are treating masks as some kind of magic panacea, they are not. The CDC do recommend giving masks to patients who have or may have a infection that is airborne. They do recommend medical personnel to wear masks and face shields when undertaking some procedures vis: "procedures and patient-care activities that are likely to generate splashes or sprays of blood, body fluids, secretions and excretions" and "During aerosol-generating procedures (e.g., bronchoscopy, suctioning of the respiratory tract , endotracheal intubation) in patients who are not suspected of being infected with an agent for which respiratory protection is otherwise recommended (e.g., M. tuberculosis, SARS or hemorrhagic fever viruses), wear one of the following: a face shield that fully covers the front and sides of the face, a mask with attached shield, or a mask and goggles (in addition to gloves and gown)". They do recommend wearing masks when treating patients with certain respiratory diseases (partially called out above).

Masks are not called for in medical settings anywhere near as much as you'd imagine if you get your information from stock photography and film and television drama. I can't remember the last time I saw a real live doctor or nurse wearing a mask in real life - including lying on my back in A&E/resus/on wards watching other patients being treated around me.

In a pandemic situation I imagine that a lot of medical personnel are wearing masks as a routine precaution, but that doesn't necessarily imply that there's a good evidential basis for doing so - amazingly doctors and nurses are as susceptible to cargo cults as much as the rest of us. There is evidence to follow a recommendation to use one when actively treating a patient with a suspected or known serious respiratory infection.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 07:48:02 pm
In South Korea, there was no real confinement to speak of - from all witnessing I've got, people were almost living their lives as usual, few shops/companies shut down, and almost everyone with a mask. Meanwhile, we keep saying it doesn't work, yet we had to confine people in a lot stricter way than they ever did in SK, and we still don't know what's going to happen.

Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
The reason for any difference should be abundantly clear. Not only do medics know they're actually in close contact with the airborne virus, crucially they're also properly trained and have the discipline to properly implement their training. Meanwhile, the medical industry has huge trouble getting people to adhere to even the most basic instructions. You know what they say about making things idiot proof.

Just pointing at masks and speculating that must be the reason things were different in South Korea is dangerous unless you're very sure that's true. Just a few idiots adding to the problem would have a massive fallout. Expecting the public at large to behave on par with well trained medical professionals is inviting disaster. The food industry has trouble with it so there really is no hope.

I don't think the proponents of masks understand that in some medical laboratories gloves are actually prohibited for general use as a measure to promote better hand hygiene. What you intuitively think is better and what actually is better aren't always the same. Don't just do something just to do something and because it makes you feel better about things.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 24, 2020, 07:48:32 pm
Quote
Unfortunately there's a small portion who become gravely ill

About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 08:00:17 pm
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
The point is that medical practitioners know how to use masks properly. The general public does not and that likely causes more harm than good. A mask has a limited useful life, needs to be handled right, disposed right, etc. It is pretty much the same discussion when isolation transformers come into play. If you drill down deeper you'll see that there are a lot of (not so obvious) conditions that need to be met for an isolation transformer to increase safety instead of actually reducing safety.

See these mask wearing guidelines from the WHO:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks)
Quote from the top video 'If you do not have symptoms then don't use a mask because there is no evidence it protects you'.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 08:03:35 pm
About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.
As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 24, 2020, 08:10:16 pm
Oh-oh

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/youtube-to-limit-video-quality-around-the-world-for-a-month (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/youtube-to-limit-video-quality-around-the-world-for-a-month)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 24, 2020, 08:12:03 pm
Oh-oh

The default quality.  You can still change it manually.

I believe Netflix was doing something similar in some areas.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 24, 2020, 08:13:40 pm
I do not think i can change youtube quality on my TV.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 24, 2020, 08:15:00 pm
A quote that has haunted me for days. 

Quote
It seems totally incredible to me now that everyone spent that evening as though it were just like any other. From the railway station came the sound of shunting trains, ringing and rumbling, softened almost into melody by the distance. It all seemed so safe and tranquil...

Around me, the daily routine of life; working, eating, sleeping, was continuing serenely as it had for countless years.
H.G.Wells - War of the Worlds - Jeff Wayne adaption - The Eve of the War | Horsell Common
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 08:23:41 pm
A quote that has haunted me for days. 

Quote
It seems totally incredible to me now that everyone spent that evening as though it were just like any other. From the railway station came the sound of shunting trains, ringing and rumbling, softened almost into melody by the distance. It all seemed so safe and tranquil...

Around me, the daily routine of life; working, eating, sleeping, was continuing serenely as it had for countless years.
H.G.Wells - War of the Worlds - Jeff Wayne adaption - The Eve of the War | Horsell Common
Every fiction can become reality at some point. We got the flip-phones from Star Trek too.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 08:30:41 pm
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
The point is that medical practitioners know how to use masks properly. The general public does not and that likely causes more harm than good. A mask has a limited useful life, needs to be handled right, disposed right, etc. It is pretty much the same discussion when isolation transformers come into play. If you drill down deeper you'll see that there are a lot of (not so obvious) conditions that need to be met for an isolation transformer to increase safety instead of actually reducing safety.

See these mask wearing guidelines from the WHO:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks)
Quote from the top video 'If you do not have symptoms then don't use a mask because there is no evidence it protects you'.

I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple masks do not protect against the virus".  All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.

The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking (with some efficiency). Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses and his/her bacteria caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 08:35:03 pm
Oh-oh

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/youtube-to-limit-video-quality-around-the-world-for-a-month (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/youtube-to-limit-video-quality-around-the-world-for-a-month)

That makes sense. Imagine a major outage of Internet access in various parts of the world during this crisis. It would be a complete disaster.
Some providers already had a hard time keeping up the last few days...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 24, 2020, 08:37:08 pm

Quote from the top video 'If you do not have symptoms then don't use a mask because there is no evidence it protects you'.

If everyone wears masks, even those that don't know they have the disease are protecting the rest of the population?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 08:38:32 pm
The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.
That is a misconception. Just read the WHO guidelines again. A mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask. Note that I used the word 'use' and not 'wear'. Wearing is mask is one thing, knowing how to use it effectively is another. IF it served a purpose for everyone to wear a mask then the WHO would have certainly recommended it. Now ofcourse people will chime in and say there aren't enough masks but even the WHO would be clever enough to tell us how to make our own mask from whatever material we have available. But they don't. So there is your answer.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 08:38:57 pm
I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple mask do not protect against the virus".  All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.

The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.

Absolutely. Knowing that most of the viral charge from one person to another comes from droplets AFAIK, so it's very important to at least contain them.

And again, no one said that was a bulletproof solution. But anything that can objectively lower the viral charge people are likely to be exposed to is a good thing, and that can just be the difference between life and death.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 08:40:45 pm
I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple mask do not protect against the virus".  All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.

The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.

Absolutely. Knowing that most of the viral charge from one person to another comes from droplets AFAIK, so it's very important to at least contain them.

And again, no one said that was a bulletproof solution. But anything that can objectively lower the viral charge people are likely to be exposed to is a good thing, and that can just be the difference between life and death.
IF this where true then the WHO would certainly recommend it. See my reply above. I don't get why people keep insisting on denying what the experts who are literally at the front line are saying.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 08:41:13 pm
I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple mask do not protect against the virus".  All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.

The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.
An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 24, 2020, 08:43:39 pm

An infected person who is not safely at home is a problem no matter what they are doing...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 24, 2020, 08:45:06 pm
Quote
A mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.

For varying values of 'work'. If you wear a mask incorrectly, does it do anything at all? I would suggest it has some effect - it won't be the 'proper' working fully protective effect, but it would surely be better than nothing at all, wouldn't it?

Kind of like if you wear a crash helmet incorrectly it's not going to be as effective as if you did it up properly, but there's a non-zero possibility that it will lessen a bash on your bonce all the same. [OK, not quite analogous because an incorrectly worn helmet might kill you whereas a mask won't, but let's not go down that kind of rabbit hole.]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 08:47:53 pm
Quote
A mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.

For varying values of 'work'. If you wear a mask incorrectly, does it do anything at all? I would suggest it has some effect - it won't be the 'proper' working fully protective effect, but it would surely be better than nothing at all, wouldn't it?

Kind of like if you wear a crash helmet incorrectly it's not going to be as effective as if you did it up properly, but there's a non-zero possibility that it will lessen a bash on your bonce all the same. [OK, not quite analogous because an incorrectly worn helmet might kill you whereas a mask won't, but let's not go down that kind of rabbit hole.]
Look for X-Ray pictures of people who had their feet on the dashboard of a car while the airbag exploded. Now think again about safety features used the wrong way. Just follow the advice from the experts.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 24, 2020, 08:54:49 pm

In what circumstances would a mask not prevent or significantly reduce "spitting" from someone talking or sneezing?

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 08:56:04 pm
Quote
A mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.

For varying values of 'work'. If you wear a mask incorrectly, does it do anything at all? I would suggest it has some effect - it won't be the 'proper' working fully protective effect, but it would surely be better than nothing at all, wouldn't it?

Kind of like if you wear a crash helmet incorrectly it's not going to be as effective as if you did it up properly, but there's a non-zero possibility that it will lessen a bash on your bonce all the same. [OK, not quite analogous because an incorrectly worn helmet might kill you whereas a mask won't, but let's not go down that kind of rabbit hole.]
The research that was posted shows that PPE can and often does lead to more careless behaviour. This is a known issue in the medical field and elsewhere. Your assessment that you cannot make it worse is therefore demonstrably incorrect. Professionals know this and still suffer the issue. Laymen absolutely will too.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 08:58:27 pm
Quote
IF this where true then the WHO would certainly recommend it.
I wonder what happens with "WHO" after this pandemic finishes..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 09:01:44 pm
Quote
IF this where true then the WHO would certainly recommend it.
I wonder what happens with "WHO" after this pandemic finishes..
So now all you have to add is a conspiracy theory?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 09:05:16 pm
Of course it doesn't make sense for Joe Average to wear a face mask that would be suitable for use by a medical practitioner, in a hospital, ER, ICU, etc . It's just wasted on him. Nobody recommends wearing these while we have a shortage of them anyway.

We'll soon see recommendations or even requirements for people to wear something over their mouth and nose when they go to the grocery store.

In what circumstances would a mask not prevent or significantly reduce "spitting" from someone talking or sneezing?
Exactly.

Since this is going to be with us for quite a while, I expect Versace to create a face mask collection. People will want to maintain style while queueing for toilet paper.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 09:07:34 pm
I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple mask do not protect against the virus".  All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.

The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.
An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 09:09:03 pm

In what circumstances would a mask not prevent or significantly reduce "spitting" from someone talking or sneezing?
It may very well, although it may also not as these masks are not designed for this. People tend to touch and adjust masks and someone may spread the virus around more than they would otherwise. The WHO acknowledges this risk when they say "If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly." The Telegraph tells us why. It's a shit source but they make the right point;

Quote
Why do PHE (and others) worry they may make matters worse?

There are lots of reasons:

 They cause people to touch their faces more, making the changes of picking up a bug and transferring it to your body via mouth, nose and eyes more likely.
 They know most people will wear them for much longer than a few minutes for which they are designed. How many mask wearers change theirs every five minutes for a clean one? This is a problem because they quickly become damp inside and are therefore an ideal place for viruses to land
There is a risk they can be shared, especially by children.
There is a risk they are not disposed of properly, resulting in viruses being spread further.
And perhaps most important, there is a risk that they distract people from the real problem - that droplets fall on surfaces and are picked up on peoples hands and then passed to their faces. This is the main route for transmission and the only reliable way of breaking it is to keep surfaces and hands clean. Masks just don't help with that.
In Thailand, a factory was found repackaging used face masks as new.
The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has banned a swathe of advertisements for face masks, describing them as “misleading, irresponsible and scaremongering”. It says it is wrong for any advertiser to claim that surgical masks can protect against coronavirus and will take action against any that do.

Are there better masks than surgical masks?

Yes, but these are highly specialist, very expensive and again only work if used to very exacting protocols that even experts often struggle to keep to.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/face-masks-do-they-work-coronavirus-truth/ (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/face-masks-do-they-work-coronavirus-truth/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 24, 2020, 09:10:17 pm
Quote
feet on the dashboard of a car while the airbag exploded

Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?

Nah, forget it. I can see it was a bad move to attempt any discussion in this thread.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 09:12:08 pm
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.
The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 09:14:24 pm
Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?

Nah, forget it. I can see it was a bad move to attempt any discussion in this thread.
The issue is that some people override the recommendations of the WHO and additional evidence presented in favour of their own seat of the pants reasoning.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 09:15:56 pm
So now all you have to add is a conspiracy theory?
Gotta make it work somehow.  ::)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 24, 2020, 09:16:53 pm
Quote
can and often does lead to more careless behaviour

Risk compensation, yes. However, wearing a mask in the current situation isn't necessarily akin to isolating vs going down the pub. If one has to go shopping then the behaviour will be the same during that trip with or without the mask, wouldn't it?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 24, 2020, 09:18:13 pm
IF this where true then the WHO would certainly recommend it. See my reply above. I don't get why people keep insisting on denying what the experts who are literally at the front line are saying.

On the other hand, wearing masks in public is now mandatory in many places, for example Hong Kong and the Czech Republic.  Is WHO telling those countries to change their rules?  (Answer: no)

Here's a good article about the inconsistent and illogical messaging on this subject:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 09:19:14 pm
Quote
feet on the dashboard of a car while the airbag exploded

Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?
Using a safety device the wrong way. That is the similarity. In one case it is obvious in another it is less so to the untrained eye.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 24, 2020, 09:20:18 pm
Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?

Nah, forget it. I can see it was a bad move to attempt any discussion in this thread.
The issue is that some people override the recommendations of the WHO and additional evidence presented in favour of their own seat of the pants reasoning.

No, the issue is that totally inappropriate stuff is being passed off as similar. You've pointed out some issues and the Telegraph has been quoted. They're appropriate. Suggesting wearing a mask is like having your legs blown off is not, and just ensures no-one listens to such hyperbolic cobblers.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 09:21:49 pm
Risk compensation, yes. However, wearing a mask in the current situation isn't necessarily akin to isolating vs going down the pub. If one has to go shopping then the behaviour will be the same during that trip with or without the mask, wouldn't it?
If trained medical personnel changes behaviour and somewhat less trained food industry personnel does you can bet your bottom dollar laymen will. It also distracts from the proven important hand hygiene.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 09:32:36 pm
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.
The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.

You may read the WHO recommendation aloud to the overcrowded people in the London Underground carriages before they sneeze in someone else's face. Btw, I saw once a "droplet" around 2cm large flying several meters off the sneezing guy  :-DD

FYI - the masks exercise ie CZ runs is because the Wearers of the masks DO NOT KNOW they are infected (as 80% of infected get only mild or none symptoms and many of them do not realize they are infected at all).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 09:34:39 pm
Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?

Nah, forget it. I can see it was a bad move to attempt any discussion in this thread.
The issue is that some people override the recommendations of the WHO and additional evidence presented in favour of their own seat of the pants reasoning.

No, the issue is that totally inappropriate stuff is being passed off as similar. You've pointed out some issues and the Telegraph has been quoted. They're appropriate. Suggesting wearing a mask is like having your legs blown off is not, and just ensures no-one listens to such hyperbolic cobblers.
OK, I'm sorry about the hyperbolic. Putting your feet on the dashboard only endangers yourself. Using a mask the wrong way endangers not only yourself but others too. So all in all the situations where safety devices are being used wrong aren't 100% similar. Happy now?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 10:01:50 pm
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.
The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.

There's a study that hints (if I didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever)  - 44% of transmissions gone.

Source: my currently favourite podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8)
Sorry, German language. Maybe Youtube adds an automatic translation.
EDIT: IT does, but the translation is completely unusable gibberish.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 24, 2020, 10:08:07 pm
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.
The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.

There's a study that hints (if I'm didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever)  - 44% of transmissions gone.

Source: my currently favourite podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8)
Sorry, German language. Maybe Youtube adds an automatic translation.

Wearing masks seems to work for the Asian countries.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 24, 2020, 10:13:34 pm
FWIW, attached is some data generated from the daily W.H.O. situation reports, including the latest update today (March 24). The chart shows the total deaths to date in the US (yellow bars), as well as the new deaths each day in the US since the start (dark blue bars).

Note that for the last week or so the new deaths each day in the US has been fairly flat, in the 40-60 range, except for yesterday's report which showed a huge spike of 201 new deaths. Today's report dropped back down to 69 new deaths.

Also is a spreadsheet list of the total deaths and new deaths as of today for the 8 countries with the top numbers of total deaths since the beginning. FWIW, the US is presently in 6th place, with 471 deaths so far. Italy has the most at this point with 6,077 total deaths.

I also included the new deaths for today for those 8 countries. Italy and Spain had the most (601 and 462, respectively), with the US at 69 new deaths, and China the least with 7.   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 24, 2020, 10:14:28 pm
Risk compensation, yes. However, wearing a mask in the current situation isn't necessarily akin to isolating vs going down the pub. If one has to go shopping then the behaviour will be the same during that trip with or without the mask, wouldn't it?
If trained medical personnel changes behaviour and somewhat less trained food industry personnel does you can bet your bottom dollar laymen will. It also distracts from the proven important hand hygiene.

I think that's extrapolating from the wrong situation. A medical person is doing this kind of thing as a job all the time, and the perceived level of risk is quite low to start with so it's easy to be lax. The general public right now, OTOH, are shit-scared and have just had a sci-fi horror dumped on then over a couple of days. Regardless of protection, their perceived level of risk is sky high. A mask will be thought of as a help but not a solution and won't affect the perceived risk much at all, so they're still unlikely to be taking the kind of risk a relaxed professional might do when his mind isn't on the job.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 24, 2020, 10:15:11 pm
Quote
Happy now?

Thank you.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 10:20:30 pm
Wearing masks seems to work for the Asian countries.
I'm pretty sure it's not the masks they wear but the medicinal properties of the bats they eat. Speculating is fun!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 10:31:06 pm
I think that's extrapolating from the wrong situation. A medical person is doing this kind of thing as a job all the time, and the perceived level of risk is quite low to start with so it's easy to be lax. The general public right now, OTOH, are shit-scared and have just had a sci-fi horror dumped on then over a couple of days. Regardless of protection, their perceived level of risk is sky high. A mask will be thought of as a help but not a solution and won't affect the perceived risk much at all, so they're still unlikely to be taking the kind of risk a relaxed professional might do when his mind isn't on the job.
It's no extrapolation. Both health and food professionals have been shown by the CDC to often be more lax when it comes to hygiene with protection than without. They know why hygiene is important and that this behaviour change is a thing but it still happens. It's why protection is discouraged unless there's a verifiable advantage or risk.

Of course, the public at large takes all kinds of risks they don't even know about. That's a real part of the problem. They just do things they think are right but it's a total crapshoot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 10:33:52 pm
There's a study that hints (if I didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever)  - 44% of transmissions gone.

Source: my currently favourite podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8)
Sorry, German language. Maybe Youtube adds an automatic translation.
EDIT: IT does, but the translation is completely unusable gibberish.
You're assuming a lot. What's the advantage when they're not sneezing or coughing? It's much more likely these patients are spreading it via their hands after touching parts of their body. This is why the WHO is emphasizing hand hygiene. It works both ways!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on March 24, 2020, 10:37:17 pm
I’ve noticed that Amazon has been pushing back delivery dates to late April. As Amazon Prime member I’m used to free 2-day and even next day delivery. I browsed Amazon for few things yesterday and today, and I’ve noticed that many items had magical delivery date of April 22. Some items were still available for delivery this or next week, but most had that strange ETA.

Is Amazon shutting down some of its distribution centers?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 10:39:11 pm
On the other hand, wearing masks in public is now mandatory in many places, for example Hong Kong and the Czech Republic.  Is WHO telling those countries to change their rules?  (Answer: no)

Here's a good article about the inconsistent and illogical messaging on this subject:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html)
Do they need to address each country when their advice differs explicitly? The WHO may not have all the answers but you can be bloody sure their advice is more evidence based than that of most countries.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 24, 2020, 10:40:10 pm
I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 10:45:24 pm
I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo
I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 10:46:01 pm
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.
The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.

I think we all agree on this.

By now I have gotten that you'll be stubborn with this mask thing until the cows come home anyway. I just hope you never have to get out yourself so that it doesn't have any consequence. ::)

But do you realize, just from the above sentence, that there is a fundamental flaw? One thing we know is that there are probably MANY people infected but without any visible symptom. We are all spitting small droplets all the time even without realizing it, and it's likely more than enough to infect someone else nearby. No need to be coughing and sneezing like crazy. (As SilverSolder also just noted, anything decently dense in front of your mouth and nose can only help with that. Doesn't mean you should just get out with your mask and teasingly cough at anyone your run into. )

Knowing that obvious fact, the part we can read here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks)

Quote
- If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
- Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

Sentence 1 clearly implies that wearing a mask helps protecting yourself.

Sentence 2, from what I said above, seems stupid. Sorry WHO. You don't need to be coughing or sneezing to be potentially infected.

That said, neither of those recommendations claim that masks are useless either.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 24, 2020, 10:48:32 pm
I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo
Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?

Quote
- If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
- Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
Sentence 2, from what I said above, seems stupid. Sorry WHO. You don't need to be coughing or sneezing to be potentially infected.
In sentence 2 the WHO implies that you are sick and are coughing and/or sneezing regulary.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 10:50:54 pm
SiliconWizard, I may be stubborn but at least I don't hand wave and pretend to know better than the authority on the matter. Do you really think your arguments haven't occurred to an institute's worth of health care professionals?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 10:52:58 pm
Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?
Spontaneous French kissing would be my guess.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on March 24, 2020, 10:55:35 pm
Quote
A mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.

For varying values of 'work'. If you wear a mask incorrectly, does it do anything at all? I would suggest it has some effect - it won't be the 'proper' working fully protective effect, but it would surely be better than nothing at all, wouldn't it?

Kind of like if you wear a crash helmet incorrectly it's not going to be as effective as if you did it up properly, but there's a non-zero possibility that it will lessen a bash on your bonce all the same. [OK, not quite analogous because an incorrectly worn helmet might kill you whereas a mask won't, but let's not go down that kind of rabbit hole.]
An incorrectly worn mask can increase the risk to the user, its a very apt comparison. Also that helmets are tested to a narrow range of function (direct blows to the head) and face masks are similarly synthetically tested without taking account of real world effects.

Those of us who have been trained for working with infectious substances might be able to use a mask effectively, but know its not applicable to the wider community. Most people (even in hospitality where they are supposed to be trained) don't use gloves/bags/tongs effectively for public food handling.

I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.
Which is why the advice to sneeze into an cocked elbow is a good public measure, not many people are going to be unconsciously touching that part of their body.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 11:01:02 pm
There's a study that hints (if I didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever)  - 44% of transmissions gone.
You're assuming a lot. What's the advantage when they're not sneezing or coughing? It's much more likely these patients are spreading it via their hands after touching parts of their body. This is why the WHO is emphasizing hand hygiene. It works both ways!
Well. They're still spitting while talking, virus-laden aerosol exits their mouths. Everybody does, it's inevitable. And everybody coughs now and then, maybe because the throat has become dry while talking. It's known that the virus replicates mainly in the throat during the initial phase of the infection. This is where the main virus load comes from, and this is the main transmission vector before symptoms begin to show. The virus spread in Berlin mainly through clubs. On the dance floor, at the bar. Loud music, you shout into the face of your peer because he/she cannot hear your otherwise - bam.

After the coughing and sneezing starts, the risk for transmission through smear infection comes from coughing and sneezing into your hands and then touching stuff or other people. This is what the WHO recommendation is targeting. Not only through washing your hands but also through "sneezing and coughing hygiene" (into your elbow, not into your hands, because you don't touch door handles and other people with the inner side of your elbow).

I'm aware of that study that suggests the virus easily survives days on plastic or metal surfaces and stays active. This has been demonstrated in the lab only, by infecting bacteria cultures in a petri dish. It's not yet clear how/if this study can be transferred into real world risk. The study only shows, if you put a droplet full of virus onto a plastic or metal sheet and then let it dry for a certain amount of time (some hours, days) the virus is still able to infect a petri dish full of bacteria in optimal environment.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 24, 2020, 11:01:18 pm
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/aboard-the-ruby-princess-how-one-cruise-spawned-a-covid-19-outbreak-20200323-p54d2f.html (https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/aboard-the-ruby-princess-how-one-cruise-spawned-a-covid-19-outbreak-20200323-p54d2f.html)

The NSW government and the Federal government fail to accept responsibility and accountability for this utter debacle, preferring to point the finger at each other. No leadership at all. They must fear what is going to happen to them because of this.

Reminds me of the NSW government and the dangerous iPad chargers being sold. An innocent young woman was electrocuted and they lied to the public to protect their own own arses.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 24, 2020, 11:03:23 pm
We should get Bill Gates involved. The guy has been fighting viruses since Windows 95.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 11:09:25 pm
Well. They're still spitting while talking, virus-laden aerosol exits their mouths. Everybody does, it's inevitable. And everybody coughs now and then, maybe because the throat has become dry while talking. It's known that the virus replicates mainly in the throat during the initial phase of the infection. This is where the main virus load comes from, and this is the main transmission vector before symptoms begin to show. The virus spread in Berlin mainly through clubs. On the dance floor, at the bar. Loud music, you shout into the face of your peer because he/she cannot hear your otherwise - bam.

After the coughing and sneezing starts, the risk for transmission through smear infection comes from coughing and sneezing into your hands and then touching stuff or other people. This is what the WHO recommendation is targeting. Not only through washing your hands but also through "sneezing and coughing hygiene" (into your elbow, not into your hands, because you don't touch door handles and other people with the inner side of your elbow).

I'm aware of that study that suggests the virus easily survives days on plastic or metal surfaces and stays active. This has been demonstrated in the lab only, by infecting bacteria cultures in a petri dish. It's not yet clear how/if this study can be transferred into real world risk. The study only shows, if you put a droplet full of virus onto a plastic or metal sheet and then let it dry for a certain amount of time (some hours, days) the virus is still able to infect a petri dish full of bacteria in optimal environment.
I have no doubt the WHO is aware of this. It seems likely this is why the WHO recommends social and physical distancing. It's easier to implement, more foolproof and less likely to backfire and less of a burden on resources.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 24, 2020, 11:10:42 pm
SiliconWizard, I may be stubborn but at least I don't hand wave and pretend to know better than the authority on the matter. Do you really think your arguments haven't occurred to an institute's worth of health care professionals?

You didn't address any of what I just said above.
I linked to the recommendations of the WHO that clearly imply that masks are to be used if you may be infected, or if you're dealing with someone who is. The WHO you keep mentioning writes that. Have you actually read what they say?

The only thing I'm questioning at this point concerning what they say is that they seem to restrict the use of masks only if you or someone you have to be close to is infected, and my questioning is because there are likely a lot of people not showing any symptom but that are also clear potential vectors.

I do not agree again that only if you cough or sneeze heavily you're a hazard. We keep emitting very small droplets all the time without noticing it. And anyway, we may just cough or sneeze randomly without being able to control it just because of dust or anything else. So my point is NO you don't have to have developed clear symptoms to be contagious.

Now given the scarcity of masks, it can make sense to be cautious about promoting them unreasonably. This is risk and resource management. I personally think that if they had recommended for everyone to wear masks regardless of their condition, this would have triggered an uncontrollable panic as we just can't provide them. That I understand fully. I also agree with the point that most people don't know how to put them on properly, but still think some barrier is better than none at all.

For the rest, I again haven't seen in the WHO recommendations a clear point saying that masks are useless, since they recommend using them in the above cases.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 24, 2020, 11:10:55 pm
I’ve noticed that Amazon has been pushing back delivery dates to late April. As Amazon Prime member I’m used to free 2-day and even next day delivery. I browsed Amazon for few things yesterday and today, and I’ve noticed that many items had magical delivery date of April 22. Some items were still available for delivery this or next week, but most had that strange ETA.

Is Amazon shutting down some of its distribution centers?

"The e-commerce giant is prioritizing household staples and other high-demand items during the coronavirus pandemic."

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/22/21190372/amazon-prime-delivery-delays-april-21-coronavirus-covid-19 (https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/22/21190372/amazon-prime-delivery-delays-april-21-coronavirus-covid-19)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 24, 2020, 11:15:38 pm
We should get Bill Gates involved. The guy has been fighting viruses since Windows 95.
He also held a memorable TED talk about 5 years ago about the threat of pandemics.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 11:15:56 pm
I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo
Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?
People sneeze and cough for many reasons even they are not infected. They also spread droplets when they talk.
With asymptomatic sars-cov-2 carrier - they may touch their nose or mouth with their hands. Wearing the face mask will make nose-picking more difficult..

PS: The US will be reopened by Easter [CNN]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 24, 2020, 11:21:19 pm
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks?  :-//

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead.  :-+
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 24, 2020, 11:21:35 pm
The worrying thing here is you sound like you know what you're talking about, and that might lead people to take what you're saying seriously. Then you betray the fact that you're clueless right at the end, which immediately casts doubt on anything you say.

I'm aware of that study that suggests the virus easily survives days on plastic or metal surfaces and stays active. This has been demonstrated in the lab only, by infecting bacteria cultures in a petri dish. It's not yet clear how/if this study can be transferred into real world risk. The study only shows, if you put a droplet full of virus onto a plastic or metal sheet and then let it dry for a certain amount of time (some hours, days) the virus is still able to infect a petri dish full of bacteria in optimal environment.

I don't wish to be unnecessarily harsh by using words like "clueless", but one should not be trusted to offer or promulgate biomedical information if you think that a human virus will replicate in "petri dish full of bacteria". Anybody who knows anything about biology, medicine, pathology or virology knows that statement to be 100% wrong. (See wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus) and scroll down to "host range" if you don't believe me.)

Edit: For the record, samples recovered from surfaces were actually cultured in cells of the Vero E6 line, which is a particular cell line of kidney epithelial cells originally derived from an African green monkey and used for laboratory tissue culture. (Paper HERE (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 11:21:50 pm
You didn't address any of what I just said above.
I linked to the recommendations of the WHO that clearly imply that masks are to be used if you may be infected, or if you're dealing with someone who is. The WHO you keep mentioning writes that. Have you actually read what they say?

The only thing I'm questioning at this point concerning what they say is that they seem to restrict the use of masks only if you or someone you have to be close to is infected, and my questioning is because there are likely a lot of people not showing any symptom but that are also clear potential vectors.

I do not agree again that only if you cough or sneeze heavily you're a hazard. We keep emitting very small droplets all the time without noticing it. And anyway, we may just cough or sneeze randomly without being able to control it just because of dust or anything else. So my point is NO you don't have to have developed clear symptoms to be contagious.

Now given the scarcity of masks, it can make sense to be cautious about promoting them unreasonably. This is risk and resource management. I personally think that if they had recommended for everyone to wear masks regardless of their condition, this would have triggered an uncontrollable panic as we just can't provide them. That I understand fully. I also agree with the point that most people don't know how to put them on properly, but still think some barrier is better than none at all.

For the rest, I again haven't seen in the WHO recommendations a clear point saying that masks are useless, since they recommend using them in the above cases.
I've read what they say. They also say to only use masks if you know how to use them. That's not many people. As far as the droplets argument I'm going to point at my previous post about social distancing and argue that this will have occurred to the WHO. Their advice takes this into account and I don't think either of us are really qualified to second guess it. A barrier isn't necessarily better than none for reasons discussed. If anything this thread is a good illustration why the average Joe cannot be relied upon to follow simple advice and instructions. They'll do whatever seems right to them and potentially cause a disaster because they don't have a clue what they're doing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: AlfBaz on March 24, 2020, 11:25:26 pm
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/aboard-the-ruby-princess-how-one-cruise-spawned-a-covid-19-outbreak-20200323-p54d2f.html (https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/aboard-the-ruby-princess-how-one-cruise-spawned-a-covid-19-outbreak-20200323-p54d2f.html)

The NSW government and the Federal government fail to accept responsibility and accountability for this utter debacle, preferring to point the finger at each other. No leadership at all. They must fear what is going to happen to them because of this.

Reminds me of the NSW government and the dangerous iPad chargers being sold. An innocent young woman was electrocuted and they lied to the public to protect their own own arses.
So we know about these major stuff ups but I'm sure there a many we don't hear about.

Missus was listening to a worker at kmart. She was saying a 90 year old from an nearby retirement village visited the store on a bus every day. When asked why she hadn't contacted the village or informed the gentleman of the dangers he posed to his village, she responded that she had to follow protocol and inform her supervisor, which she hadn't done ::)
My father in-law's village is in total lock down, or so we are led to beleive
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 24, 2020, 11:29:22 pm
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks?  :-//

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead.  :-+
It can hurt. That's the whole point.  :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 24, 2020, 11:33:41 pm
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks?  :-//

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead.  :-+

Imagine that $$ court trials in US when someone gets asphyxiated while wearing a mask made of a CocaCola bottle.. :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 24, 2020, 11:34:26 pm
I honestly have to say how impressed I am at so many of the contributors here. I mean, it was all I could handle in college to get just an Engineering degree. I was totally tapped out. I can't even imagine how some of you managed to get TWO degrees, Engineering PLUS Medicine or Virology Research or whatever the hell it's called.

Wow. Just wow.

 :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 24, 2020, 11:41:11 pm
I would like to think this case would be different but in the past I have been a good example of a bad PPE user.

When I started wearing a helmet for snowboarding, I started crashing more because I felt safer and did stupider things.

I've barely seen anyone wearing masks where I'm at.  Haven't really gone out much though.  When I wear masks it's for home renos and I touch my face a fair bit because the mask is annoying.

I hope when masks are encouraged, the encouragement comes with instructions for proper use.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: CatalinaWOW on March 25, 2020, 12:01:32 am
First I am going to say that I have only the average handyman/layman's knowledge of use of N95 and other protective masks.  I really must depend on health professionals to give definitive advice on when and how to wear masks.  But I am going to follow that with a big YAAH BUT.

First, the professional advice varies.  There are many reasons for that, including varying expertise of the professionals, incomplete science on the subject as relates to this virus.  But in my opinion, most importantly because their advice is intended to be optimum for a particular question.  It is important whether that question is:  What is the best advice for mask use to protect health professionals in a time of mask shortage?  What is the best advice for mask use to protect overall public health in a time of mask shortage.  What is the best advice to protect the health of a family or other small group in a time of mask shortage?  What is the best advice to protect personal health.  And repeat the first three questions without the shortage qualifier.  I strongly suspect that the answer is different in for some of these cases.  Maybe different only in nuanced ways, but possibly dramatically different.

Another example where the optimum advice might vary involves the merits of a valved mask vs non-valved.  It has been my personal experience that valved masks do not become humid and soggy as do non-valved masks, while it has been asserted that valved masks are not as good at controlling droplet emission from the user.  That generates a classic conflict in requirements that might lead to a preference for one type in one environment and the other under other conditions. 

I suspect we will watch these changing conditions play out over time in different parts of the world and watch the professional advice change along with the changes.  Best advice for us amateurs is to pay attention to the local recommendations.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 25, 2020, 12:37:54 am
A sample of some South Korean people thoughts on how they think their country is faring better than others.
Likely the Korean people are better prepared for outbreaks after the SARS outbreak. Including instructions & training on how to use masks effectively.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 25, 2020, 12:59:19 am
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks?  :-//

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.


"You seen 'em, you play 'em." (Buster Scruggs)

I bought 50 masks about 5 years ago and have mailed some out to those in need in concealed packages because of mask theft in the mail.

Crime will be different now. As India is in lock down we won't be getting as many phone calls from low-life Microsoft Help Desk scammers for a couple of weeks. I suspect house burglaries will plummet. Carjackings will drop. Some good side effects will come out of this virus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 01:02:30 am
"You seen 'em, you play 'em." (Buster Scruggs)

I bought 50 masks about 5 years ago and have mailed some out to those in need in concealed packages because of mask theft in the mail.

Crime will be different now. As India is in lock down we won't be getting as many phone calls from low-life Microsoft Help Desk scammers for a couple of weeks. I suspect house burglaries will plummet. Carjackings will drop. Some good side effects will come out of this virus.
Crime may drop and seems to do so in areas locked down. A swathe of criminal minds sitting on their hands can't be good news though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: jonovid on March 25, 2020, 06:40:40 am
The unintended consequences of a 4 to 12 week coronavirus lockdown are shock & change to the core consumer culture!
goods & services once most valued are now no longer desirable or just forgotten!. physically going out maybe too difficult. too expensive.
if millennials were killing it back in 2019 , now coronavirus has totally utterly cremated it & buried the ashes in 2020.
all them public places may just start to disappear, as new habits & new technology fills up the gaps in our lives.
once filled by watching live ball sports, drunking , eating in public, and traveling to other places just to do the same.
by far the worst is inflation, making once desirable going out, physically going there, way too expensive for most of us.
private vehicle ownership, home ownership , international travel , club memberships , private educations  , cheap consumer electronics.
the golden age of the consumer maybe over!  the great depression of the 1930s was followed by War! not a consumer bailout.
even if the banks get a bailout. the sheer weight and size of all the failed derivatives may will sink the financial markets.
coronavirus is not just another thing that ends in weeks or so you can move on, no  its a permanent scar on this civilization!  :'(
if this is no the case I would be very surprised.   consumer confidence just got king-hit in the face!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 09:16:11 am
A sample of some South Korean people thoughts on how they think their country is faring better than others.

SK South Korea death vs amount of cases is increasing and currently 1.379% (126/9137*100)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

in SK South Korea the virus at first spread within a religious sect and the vast majority of affected people were young women, i.e. one of the lowest risk group, so mortality there appeared much lower than in other parts of the world

in Italy and Spain the virus started in hospitals and nursing homes and so in some parts of the countries the mortality rate may even be around 10%

IMHO China strategy is better, I just wish it could be enforced here in Italy where we are still far from seeing a substantial improvement (we are unsure if there is a real albeit small improvement or if that is due to other confounding factors)

BTW viral check has always a small percentage of false negatives and even real negative people may become positive while they wait the test result
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 25, 2020, 09:35:51 am
Quote
in SK KR the virus at first spread within a religious sect
KR - South Korea
KP - North Korea
SK - Slovakia
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 25, 2020, 09:51:15 am

..As India is in lock down we won't be getting as many phone calls from low-life Microsoft Help Desk scammers for a couple of weeks..


Hey yeah, no tard voiced cold calls for a while now  ???

or they got fed up with the awesome european mates inspired  :-+  gutter insults delivered in aussie speak   :o 
and imitating their cloned voices and useless predictable sales spin they parrot from their screen  :palm:

 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 25, 2020, 09:58:35 am
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks?  :-//

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead.  :-+
It can hurt. That's the whole point.  :palm:

People here playing with numbers tell you you're 50% likely to be in the same space as an infected person while shopping food. Without getting hung up on the assumptions going into these calculation and their merits, let's just assume it being very likely. You'll casually meet this person with a certain probability. You'll become infected with a certain probability. Now imagine everyone wears a scarf in front of their mouth. Does this reduce the risk of getting infected or not?

In the end, your whole train of argument boils down to just one: People shouldn't wear masks because they will feel protected and exhibit risky behavior. But they do that anyway and wearing protection isn't going to make it worse. The instructions and procedures for wearing face masks are designed for highly infectious and hazardous environments. Your local Costco is no such environment. The London Underground - not so sure. Best avoid entirely, with a mask or not.

The whole idea behind all recommendations to not wear masks is anyway not increased risk of infection to the wearer, but because they are needed elsewhere and creating additional competition for the resource is a really bad idea right now. If the resource was plentiful, nobody would be making such recommendation. Rather, the opposite.

Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 25, 2020, 10:21:17 am
..
Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.

The major problem I see is the many nations/cultures tend to look after an easy solutions to this pandemic problem.

So when you advice "wear a face mask" they tend to think they will get a big box with face masks delivered to their doorstep, with an "user manual" inside, and they will wear a mask and their life will continue exactly as it was before..

But wearing a mask is only one thing off MANY others you shall to do.

There are measures at State level (a long list) and then a list what general public should do (a shorter list).

Wearing a face mask is NOT a substitution for "stay at home, do social distancing, wash your hands, ..". You shall DO ALL..

Thus the thought like "wearing a face mask could give you a false feeling of safety" indicates an absolute misunderstanding of the overall process. And the authorities in some countries shall be really careful with what they are telling to their citizens in that matter.


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 25, 2020, 10:30:05 am
Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.
Wrong again.  :palm: FFS read the WHO recommendations and the reasons posted earlier why (untrained) Joe average shouldn't be messing around with masks!
There is absolutely no scientific backing from the WHO for your opinions which you try to represent as facts.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 11:11:06 am
People here playing with numbers tell you you're 50% likely to be in the same space as an infected person while shopping food. Without getting hung up on the assumptions going into these calculation and their merits, let's just assume it being very likely. You'll casually meet this person with a certain probability. You'll become infected with a certain probability. Now imagine everyone wears a scarf in front of their mouth. Does this reduce the risk of getting infected or not?

In the end, your whole train of argument boils down to just one: People shouldn't wear masks because they will feel protected and exhibit risky behavior. But they do that anyway and wearing protection isn't going to make it worse. The instructions and procedures for wearing face masks are designed for highly infectious and hazardous environments. Your local Costco is no such environment. The London Underground - not so sure. Best avoid entirely, with a mask or not.

The whole idea behind all recommendations to not wear masks is anyway not increased risk of infection to the wearer, but because they are needed elsewhere and creating additional competition for the resource is a really bad idea right now. If the resource was plentiful, nobody would be making such recommendation. Rather, the opposite.

Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.
No, not by all means. We've been over this a couple of times now and the answers remain the same. You're forgetting the part where untrained people touch all kinds of things they shouldn't touch and may very well make things worse. Dispensing advice which differs from the WHO guidelines is a huge risk even for a well respected medical professional. Even when it's well intended laymen should probably refrain from doing so.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 11:16:44 am
People who 2 weeks ago thought WHO was a rock group are now experts.   :-DD

(okay, that wasn't mine, I heard it from a friend yesterday, but still it's hilarious).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 12:31:34 pm
People who 2 weeks ago thought WHO was a rock group are now experts.   :-DD

(okay, that wasn't mine, I heard it from a friend yesterday, but still it's hilarious).
Experts who know better than the actual experts at that. You either need a lot more than two PhDs for that, or a lot less.  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 25, 2020, 12:48:50 pm
Experts who know better than the actual experts at that. You either need a lot more than two PhDs for that, or a lot less.  :-DD

This is called "appeal to authority", and is utterly stupid here, because everyone here has looked at what WHO and other expert groups have to say. The fact that some others have reached a different conclusion than you, in a really complex matter, does not mean that you are now officially representing WHO and have understood everything they say 100% correctly. You can agree to disagree, but laughing at others like you are some magical God of the True Information sent by WHO not only makes you look stupid, it's detrimental to the quality of discussion. Maybe just drop it? No need to run in circles for pages after pages.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 25, 2020, 12:51:18 pm
In general it's not a case of knowing better (or not). If one's intuition suggests one thing and expert advice suggests another, shouldn't one try to find out why there is that difference? Many of the responses in here start out like that but get taken as know-nothings thinking they know better, or know-betters scoring a hit, and it degenerates from there into implacably entrenched views.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 25, 2020, 12:51:42 pm
In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.

In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.

This is the spirit we like to see.

Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 12:57:44 pm
In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.

In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.

This is the spirit we like to see.

Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.

Really?? That's wonderful.

I dunno, I've grown up with a huge respect for the people in the UK. Y'know, "stiff upper lip" and all. They always seemed to be the "adults in the room" while the rest of the world is flailing around. Not sure how it's been in recent years, but it's good to see that they're yet again a role model. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 25, 2020, 01:13:16 pm
 :-//

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=moT5qxeC6Fk
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 25, 2020, 01:20:39 pm
In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.

In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.

This is the spirit we like to see.

Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.

Really?? That's wonderful.


It is.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52029877 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52029877)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Np4ZLcqOp38 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Np4ZLcqOp38)

However we have our share of assholes too.

Quote
Coronavirus: Doctor 'kicked out' by Headington landlady
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-52032909 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-52032909)

This (and other things) makes me suggest creating a "When this is over" register.  People like this land lady will be listed on it.  When this is all over with these people can be rounded up and hung by their arms in the street for people to ridicule and humiliate them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 01:23:33 pm
This is called "appeal to authority", and is utterly stupid here, because everyone here has looked at what WHO and other expert groups have to say. The fact that some others have reached a different conclusion than you, in a really complex matter, does not mean that you are now officially representing WHO and have understood everything they say 100% correctly. You can agree to disagree, but laughing at others like you are some magical God of the True Information sent by WHO not only makes you look stupid, it's detrimental to the quality of discussion. Maybe just drop it? No need to run in circles for pages after pages.
Posts here show that people very blatantly haven't looked at or understand what the WHO is saying or why. Pointing at what they say in conjunction with other evidence and sources isn't an appeal to authority, it's corroborating the story. If you're going to make claims which differ from the leading institution you not only better make bloody sure you know what you're talking about, but also prove it beyond doubt. You do understand that risky behaviour gets people killed in a very literal sense? Good intentions kill people all the same. Dropping it because people can't accept their gut feeling doesn't jive with the best evidence we have isn't an option. This isn't an inclusivity club.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 01:30:56 pm
paulca, I like your idea of a "when this is over" register. Probably want to include all the self proclaimed experts who sit on their butts commenting on stuff they know nothing about, solely to boost their own egos, rather than getting off their arses and taking a lesson from the UK. I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.

Thanks for the breath of fresh air. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 25, 2020, 01:45:13 pm
Pieces of status from Finland:

The government "seems" to take this corona thing quite seriously, but acting still slowly.

Media has focused on the fact that Sweden seems to lag behind on the actions even worse than Finland. While this seems to be true, the race to see who's the worst and who's the second worst isn't what we should be doing right now. Both Finland and Sweden are repeating the footsteps of Italy. Let's back this up by looking at three example countries which have approximately the same number of infections per capita,

Finland 154 cases / 1M people:
schools still partially open (all 1st to 3rd graders); restaurants, bars, etc. still allowed to fully operate; police still stands behind their statement that they have no means (by law) or will to enforce the limitations of people gathering. So we are basically still relying on "suggestions", and people doing "the right things" on their own. Which, of course, works to some extent.

USA 166 cases / 1M people
or, Germany 406 cases / 1M people (known to test more easily, hence showing higher number of verified infections, compared to Finland for example):
large scale curfews, travel restrictions, schools actually closed wherever necessary, restaurants, bars completely closed or heavily limited (for example, by how many customers can go in at once).

The response in Finland is clearly lacking behind compared to our peers. Though, it seems, we are quite content with the fact Sweden is lacking even more. (Just to make sure no one misunderstands, I don't share this joy.)

Now, the government has decided to close the restaurant and bars, actually they have already talked about it for over a week. On Monday came the preliminary information that the restaurants would be finally closed on Tuesday (yesterday). Yesterday, we were informed that "if everything goes perfectly well", the restaurants "may be closed as soon as Saturday", and all this delay is because of doing everything "by the book", including the multi-step legal process (which can be only accelerated to certain extent). Note, there is 100% agreement about having to implement these limitations, shared by the government, and the opposition. Opposition is supporting the government and demanding them to work faster.

Last weekend, Finland brought 2500 Finnish tourists home from Spain. To the surprise of everyone, no quarantine, no medical control. People were given a piece of paper with a suggestion of staying home "if possible". Instead, the reporters witnessed these high-risk people from the worst hit areas get into crowded buses, and head to restaurants to have some coffee. This is seen as alarming because many of these people live outside the most hit Helsinki Uusimaa region; outside this region, the number of cases are still fairly low.

The government is actually "planning" on isolating the Helsinki Uusimaa region, so for the first time, activating some real travel restrictions inside Finland. Sadly, it seems this is coming a bit too late, as well; the numbers outside the Helsinki region are rising already (and there is the 2-week delay between infection, and detection). Bringing in the tourists from Spain just before the isolation of the Helsinki area naturally does not help. Legal experts have (correctly, AFAIK) stated that the current state of emergency law does allow the government to isolate the Helsinki area any minute with no legal issues. Yet, planning to do exactly this has continued for almost a week now. It may happen today or tomorrow, we are hopeful.

We are clearly acting very poorly here, but it must be noted we are likely not the very worst offenders. Indeed, it seems Sweden is doing even worse. This argument is used to suppress critique; people are still quite happy how the government is doing. Many actually think that the actions are stronger than elsewhere, and "too" strong. We do see news from Italy and Spain, but not very much; I guess people still won't understand how serious this disease actually is, and how strong the actions in most other countries actually are.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 25, 2020, 01:52:40 pm
In general it's not a case of knowing better (or not). If one's intuition suggests one thing and expert advice suggests another, shouldn't one try to find out why there is that difference?
This is exactly what the WHO does! They look at the research and information from all the experts from different countries and base the information they supply on that. As usual truth is what the majority thinks is right but I rather follow advice resulting from balancing many different opinions than that of a limited group of people (government advisors included).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 02:36:46 pm
paulca, I like your idea of a "when this is over" register. Probably want to include all the self proclaimed experts who sit on their butts commenting on stuff they know nothing about, solely to boost their own egos, rather than getting off their arses and taking a lesson from the UK. I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.

Thanks for the breath of fresh air.
Careful now, you don't want to keep tripping over those passive aggressive assumptions.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 02:37:57 pm
SK South Korea death vs amount of cases is increasing and currently 1.379% (126/9137*100)

Of course that number is going up.  You're conveniently just totally ignoring the 5281 cases that don't have a known outcome yet.  (Well, you're not ignoring them, per se, you're actually just lumping them all in with the known recovered to calculate a meaningless percentage.)

Of the first 3856 cases in South Korea where there is an outcome, 126/3856 = 3.27%

You cannot just assume that the other active 5281 cases all miraculously recover with no more deaths.  While an epidemic is ongoing, calculating a crude CFR that way is disingenuous at best, dangerous at worst if it makes people complacent.  There is a multi-week delay between the detection of most cases and an outcome.  During exponential growth in spread it takes time for the outcome numbers to track the new cases.  You must look at the trends for forecasting, not the absolute numbers, and when calculating numbers you need to look at what set of patients actually represents your known outcomes.

If you look at the US' number right now and calculate a crude CFR, it would be 802/55243 = 1.45%
Some media has been continuing to report this kind of number, saying things like look, it's only 10x worse than the flu....  But it appears to actually be potentially closer to another order of magnitude higher.

It is still far too early in the US' outbreak to make any conclusions as to what the actual CFR there will be in any particular region.  With only 354 declared "recovered" so far nationwide, the naive calculation based on actual outcomes is currently just as meaningless, (other than to watch trends, of course.)  We know it will not end up being the current 69.4% once more cases have known outcomes.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 25, 2020, 02:39:47 pm

An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.

  An infected person out in public without a mask and sneezing on everyone sounds like a worse thing to me.

  The WHO acts like no one outside of the medical system has ever used a mask before and is clueless. There are tens of millions of people in this country alone that have been taught how to use masks in the fire departments, police departments, military, industrial welders and many other occupations.

    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

   I'll be happy for the rest of you not to wear a mask since it will leave more for me but given the choice I will wear one.

   A personal note, when the last polio epidemic went around in about 1960, my mother was was of the few trained nurses in our area and I well remember her going around to houses that had been quarantined to check on the people and to take them food and medicine and she always wore a mask.  No one debated the effectiveness of the masks,  you just wore one, no questions asked.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 02:43:00 pm
The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.
Once an epidemic has ended, it can simply be calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

While an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients."

In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

...or, you can use the known outcomes like I did for rough current calculations, knowing that accuracy will improve as more outcomes are known, etc. by just using the CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

In any case, simply using deaths / total cases is essentially currently meaningless given the high rate of daily new infections and the lengthy time period before there is a known outcome.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 02:45:59 pm
  An infected person out in public without a mask and sneezing on everyone sounds like a worse thing to me.

  The WHO acts like no one outside of the medical system has ever used a mask before and is clueless. There are tens of millions of people in this country alone that have been taught how to use masks in the fire departments, police departments, military, industrial welders and many other occupations.

    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

   I'll be happy for the rest of you not to wear a mask since it will leave more for me but given the choice I will wear one.

   A personal note, when the last polio epidemic went around in about 1960, my mother was was of the few trained nurses in our area and I well remember her going around to houses that had been quarantined to check on the people and to take them food and medicine and she always wore a mask.  No one debated the effectiveness of the masks,  you just wore one, no questions asked.
At this point we're really going in circles. I'll refer to the previous n pages for the how and why on masks. Though it surprises me how intent people are on this "you're just keeping the masks for yourself" conspiracy. Resource management is important in the sense that masks shouldn't be wasted on ineffectual deployment, but the suggestion they're just out to hoard them for doctors is another thing. Let's please not use 1960s healthcare as any kind of example for our current situation. We don't have all the answers now so they definitely didn't have them back then.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 25, 2020, 02:49:46 pm
In general it's not a case of knowing better (or not). If one's intuition suggests one thing and expert advice suggests another, shouldn't one try to find out why there is that difference?
This is exactly what the WHO does! They look at the research and information from all the experts from different countries and base the information they supply on that. As usual truth is what the majority thinks is right but I rather follow advice resulting from balancing many different opinions than that of a limited group of people (government advisors included).

But doesn't e.g. South Korea have its own WHO equivalent?  Why did they come to the opposite conclusion from WHO regarding masks?

Also, you could argue that the Chinese health authorities know more about the problem than anyone, and they seem to be very pro-mask.   Again, why?

WHO has failed to establish a consensus or to make a solid case for their anti-mask statements.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 25, 2020, 02:50:54 pm
paulca, I like your idea of a "when this is over" register. Probably want to include all the self proclaimed experts who sit on their butts commenting on stuff they know nothing about, solely to boost their own egos, rather than getting off their arses and taking a lesson from the UK. I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.

Taking a lesson from the UK?

They did not do a thing until French president Macron got furious and threatened to shut down the border with them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 02:57:40 pm
So when you advice "wear a face mask" they tend to think they will get a big box with face masks delivered to their doorstep, with an "user manual" inside, and they will wear a mask and their life will continue exactly as it was before..

well they might order this mask from amazon (https://www.amazon.it/Veka-Donald-Trump-Card-maschera/dp/B01DO4PH2E)
and then feel very safe ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 25, 2020, 03:01:15 pm
In general it's not a case of knowing better (or not). If one's intuition suggests one thing and expert advice suggests another, shouldn't one try to find out why there is that difference?
This is exactly what the WHO does! They look at the research and information from all the experts from different countries and base the information they supply on that. As usual truth is what the majority thinks is right but I rather follow advice resulting from balancing many different opinions than that of a limited group of people (government advisors included).
But doesn't e.g. South Korea have its own WHO equivalent?  Why did they come to the opposite conclusion from WHO regarding masks?
Also, you could argue that the Chinese health authorities know more about the problem than anyone, and they seem to be very pro-mask.   Again, why?
You'd have to ask the WHO. There probably is a report somewhere on their website which explains the basis for their recommendations.
Quote
WHO has failed to establish a consensus or to make a solid case for their anti-mask statements.
That is your opinion.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 25, 2020, 03:05:18 pm
People here playing with numbers tell you you're 50% likely to be in the same space as an infected person while shopping food. Without getting hung up on the assumptions going into these calculation and their merits, let's just assume it being very likely. You'll casually meet this person with a certain probability. You'll become infected with a certain probability. Now imagine everyone wears a scarf in front of their mouth. Does this reduce the risk of getting infected or not?

In the end, your whole train of argument boils down to just one: People shouldn't wear masks because they will feel protected and exhibit risky behavior. But they do that anyway and wearing protection isn't going to make it worse. The instructions and procedures for wearing face masks are designed for highly infectious and hazardous environments. Your local Costco is no such environment. The London Underground - not so sure. Best avoid entirely, with a mask or not.

The whole idea behind all recommendations to not wear masks is anyway not increased risk of infection to the wearer, but because they are needed elsewhere and creating additional competition for the resource is a really bad idea right now. If the resource was plentiful, nobody would be making such recommendation. Rather, the opposite.

Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.
No, not by all means. We've been over this a couple of times now and the answers remain the same. You're forgetting the part where untrained people touch all kinds of things they shouldn't touch and may very well make things worse. Dispensing advice which differs from the WHO guidelines is a huge risk even for a well respected medical professional. Even when it's well intended laymen should probably refrain from doing so.

I've looked into the two links you posted earlier in the thread. One is a study about food workers likelihood to performing proper hand hygiene in activities with and without gloves. The other ones is an expert opinion on the mertis of using gloves and face masks in a pandemic situation.

From the study:
Quote
These results suggest that workers who wear gloves do not remove them and wash their hands as they should. Although some researchers and practitioners have contended that glove use can promote poor hand washing practices [...],little data exists on this issue. More research is needed to understand the relationship between glove use and handwashing.
And:
Quote
Appropriate hand washing and glove use were also related to worker busyness — these hand hygiene behaviors were less likely to occur when workers were busy (i.e., engaged in relatively larger numbers of activities needing handwashing)

The study does _not_ show conclusively a dependency between hand hygiene and glove use. Just as likely, time pressure may be the driver here, as removing the gloves before washing and putting them on again afterwards are time consuming activities. The generalization from here to "protective gear promotes careless behavior" is not obvious to me.

As far as expert opinions go:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext)
Quote
It is time for governments and public health agencies to make rational recommendations on appropriate face mask use to complement their recommendations on other preventive measures, such as hand hygiene. WHO currently recommends that people should wear face masks if they have respiratory symptoms or if they are caring for somebody with symptoms. Perhaps it would also be rational to recommend that people in quarantine wear face masks if they need to leave home for any reason, to prevent potential asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission. In addition, vulnerable populations, such as older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, should wear face masks if available. Universal use of face masks could be considered if supplies permit. In parallel, urgent research on the duration of protection of face masks, the measures to prolong life of disposable masks, and the invention on reusable masks should be encouraged. Taiwan had the foresight to create a large stockpile of face masks; other countries or regions might now consider this as part of future pandemic plans.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 03:06:22 pm
The major problem I see is the many nations/cultures tend to look after an easy solutions to this pandemic problem.

So when you advice "wear a face mask" they tend to think they will get a big box with face masks delivered to their doorstep, with an "user manual" inside, and they will wear a mask and their life will continue exactly as it was before..

But wearing a mask is only one thing off MANY others you shall to do.

There are measures at State level (a long list) and then a list what general public should do (a shorter list).

Wearing a face mask is NOT a substitution for "stay at home, do social distancing, wash your hands, ..". You shall DO ALL..

Thus the thought like "wearing a face mask could give you a false feeling of safety" indicates an absolute misunderstanding of the overall process. And the authorities in some countries shall be really careful with what they are telling to their citizens in that matter.
The notion that wearing PPE leads to more risky behaviour isn't a misunderstanding. It's been shown to happen in trained health care and food industry professionals. Thinking it's speculation is the misunderstanding here. It's baffling people are still confused.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 25, 2020, 03:06:46 pm
   A personal note, when the last polio epidemic went around in about 1960, my mother was was of the few trained nurses in our area and I well remember her going around to houses that had been quarantined to check on the people and to take them food and medicine and she always wore a mask.  No one debated the effectiveness of the masks,  you just wore one, no questions asked.
You are stepping over a very important detail here. Your mother likely put a new mask on before entering each home and took it off after leaving the home and disposed the mask properly. It would surprise me if she was wearing the same mask the whole day long!

BTW the WHO is recomending to wear a face mask while in the vincinity of an infected person.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 03:17:28 pm
SK South Korea death vs amount of cases is increasing and currently 1.379% (126/9137*100)

Of course that number is going up.  You're conveniently just totally ignoring the 5281 cases that don't have a known outcome yet.  (Well, you're not ignoring them, per se, you're actually just lumping them all in with the known recovered to calculate a meaningless percentage.)

Of the first 3856 cases in South Korea where there is an outcome, 126/3856 = 3.27%

You cannot just assume that the other active 5281 cases all miraculously recover with no more deaths.  While an epidemic is ongoing, calculating a crude CFR that way is disingenuous at best, dangerous at worst if it makes people complacent.  There is a multi-week delay between the detection of most cases and an outcome.  During exponential growth in spread it takes time for the outcome numbers to track the new cases.  You must look at the trends for forecasting, not the absolute numbers, and when calculating numbers you need to look at what set of patients actually represents your known outcomes.

If you look at the US' number right now and calculate a crude CFR, it would be 802/55243 = 1.45%
Some media has been continuing to report this kind of number, saying things like look, it's only 10x worse than the flu....  But it appears to actually be potentially closer to another order of magnitude higher.

It is still far too early in the US' outbreak to make any conclusions as to what the actual CFR there will be in any particular region.  With only 354 declared "recovered" so far nationwide, the naive calculation based on actual outcomes is currently just as meaningless, (other than to watch trends, of course.)  We know it will not end up being the current 69.4% once more cases have known outcomes.

I agree with you, but please notice that your remarks do not disprove what I never intend to prove or mean  :)
Please read more carefully my message in the context of the message I was replying to (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2980658/#msg2980658)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 25, 2020, 03:25:50 pm
As far as expert opinions go:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext)
Quote
It is time for governments and public health agencies to make rational recommendations on appropriate face mask use to complement their recommendations on other preventive measures, such as hand hygiene. WHO currently recommends that people should wear face masks if they have respiratory symptoms or if they are caring for somebody with symptoms. Perhaps it would also be rational to recommend that people in quarantine wear face masks if they need to leave home for any reason, to prevent potential asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission. In addition, vulnerable populations, such as older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, should wear face masks if available. Universal use of face masks could be considered if supplies permit. In parallel, urgent research on the duration of protection of face masks, the measures to prolong life of disposable masks, and the invention on reusable masks should be encouraged. Taiwan had the foresight to create a large stockpile of face masks; other countries or regions might now consider this as part of future pandemic plans.

Which is almost exactly what I said earlier. And as I'll repeat (from my previous post), I completely understand the resource management issue, so I understand why the WHO statements would be what they are, and why they are much more political (not in a bad sense) than that of medical doctors.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 25, 2020, 03:26:13 pm
Quote
An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.

Just a thought - if the mask is virus-soaked then aren't those virii not in the person? Without the mask, they would have been breathed in, wouldn't they?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 03:26:51 pm
I've looked into the two links you posted earlier in the thread. One is a study about food workers likelihood to performing proper hand hygiene in activities with and without gloves. The other ones is an expert opinion on the mertis of using gloves and face masks in a pandemic situation.

From the study:
Quote
These results suggest that workers who wear gloves do not remove them and wash their hands as they should. Although some researchers and practitioners have contended that glove use can promote poor hand washing practices [...],little data exists on this issue. More research is needed to understand the relationship between glove use and handwashing.
And:
Quote
Appropriate hand washing and glove use were also related to worker busyness — these hand hygiene behaviors were less likely to occur when workers were busy (i.e., engaged in relatively larger numbers of activities needing handwashing)

The study does _not_ show conclusively a dependency between hand hygiene and glove use. Just as likely, time pressure may be the driver here, as removing the gloves before washing and putting them on again afterwards are time consuming activities. The generalization from here to "protective gear promotes careless behavior" is not obvious to me.

As far as expert opinions go:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext)
Quote
It is time for governments and public health agencies to make rational recommendations on appropriate face mask use to complement their recommendations on other preventive measures, such as hand hygiene. WHO currently recommends that people should wear face masks if they have respiratory symptoms or if they are caring for somebody with symptoms. Perhaps it would also be rational to recommend that people in quarantine wear face masks if they need to leave home for any reason, to prevent potential asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission. In addition, vulnerable populations, such as older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, should wear face masks if available. Universal use of face masks could be considered if supplies permit. In parallel, urgent research on the duration of protection of face masks, the measures to prolong life of disposable masks, and the invention on reusable masks should be encouraged. Taiwan had the foresight to create a large stockpile of face masks; other countries or regions might now consider this as part of future pandemic plans.
It's important to understand it's not a black and white matter. Discussions on the internet tend to end up heavily polarized but that's not how real life works. This means that the advice given can change as the situation develops and new information become available. This also means that most measures do some harm and some good and the trick is to pick the ones which do least harm and most good.

In regards to the conclusiveness of the links provided I'd invite you to look into the matter yourself. If possible, talk to surgeons or other staff working in areas where a lack of hygiene flat out kills people. PPE use and the negative impact it has on behaviour is a recognized issue in the medical world. A lot of attention is paid to when there is a positive or negative net gain and this is what the WHO does too. There are very likely some gains to be had, but there are various interactions which mean the result is far from what seems intuitive to many people in this thread. The WHO isn't just glossing over all the arguments made here. Most trained medics will be well aware of them and it's a matter of carefully weighing all the available information and converting that very nuanced position into a clear and simple to understand message. Judging by the assumptions and confusion we see in this comparatively well educated thread that may very well be the right approach.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 25, 2020, 03:30:20 pm
Just a thought - if the mask is virus-soaked then aren't those virii not in the person? Without the mask, they would have been breathed in, wouldn't they?
I feel the discussion suffers greatly from people dropping in and catching only half of what was discussed. Not that these people are to blame necessarily but it adds to the confusion. That remark was about infected people wearing a mask.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 25, 2020, 03:31:23 pm
Quote
They did not do a thing until French president Macron got furious and threatened to shut down the border with them.

Don't confuse the politicians (who are no doubt trying to balance several competing and incompatible requirements) with the people who just needed a bit of organisation from which to hang their selfless volunteering.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 03:35:48 pm
Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.

While that is sweet, charming and in its own way laudable, I rather wish the supermarkets would direct their efforts at keeping a supply of bread and potatoes flowing onto the shelves (which they are currently failing to do) than keeping enough hothouse flowers in the distribution chain to hand over to NHS staff. Maybe greet them with applause and a basket of fruit?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wallace Gasiewicz on March 25, 2020, 03:40:01 pm
I am an occupational medicine physician.  As such I have I have
had responsibility for PPE and especially respirator programs.
Paper masks are not really "respirators", In no way are they adequate in situations in which OSHA requires respirators
Real respirators such as half masks and full masks need to be fit tested.
The user needs to be evaluated to see if they can actually use the PPE.
I do think that medical workers in high risk areas should have this protection since they are more at risk and if infected themselves, can infect others(sick patients) at high risk.
Paper masks are no where near respirators in my opinion. (However remember most real respirators do not have a filtered exhaust, only inhaled air is filtered)
That being said, any mask is probably better than none. It can prevent droplets from entering and a lot of droplets from being expelled.
Even a contaminated mask will do this. Even a decent homemade mask can help.
If everyone wore a mask it would at least decrease (not nearly eliminate) the infectious particles, droplets or whatever. It works on both ends, the person expelling and the person breathing in, if both people are wearing masks.
There are also downsides to masks, a moist mask is a good culture medium for lots of pathogens.
This mask controversy is a matter of degree of protection, not anywhere near absolute protection.
I do not now how many virus particles are necessary to establish an infection with this Covid virus.
Having said that reducing the number of virus particles you are exposed to will probably limit your chance of actually being infected or if infected, maybe a lower innoculum would mean fewer symptoms, there are apparently a lot of people who test positive without symptoms.
I do believe masks can reduce the degree of exposure along with common sense things like distancing and hand washing and not touching your face until you was your hands.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wallace Gasiewicz on March 25, 2020, 03:43:10 pm
Quote
An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.

Just a thought - if the mask is virus-soaked then aren't those virii not in the person? Without the mask, they would have been breathed in, wouldn't they?

You both have very valid points.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 03:44:59 pm
I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.

Why do you need to wait for the Government? We didn't sit around waiting for the government here, last week some of my neighbours printed out some flyers with contact details asking if people needed help or if there were people who were prepared to offer help and posted them through everybody's letterboxes. One instant, self-organized community support group.

If you want to do something useful, do it now. Check whether you've got some vulnerable neighbours you could shop for. See if your local church/community groups are organising something and volunteer. Or copy my neighbours and start up a neighbourhood community support group if there isn't something already existing that you can join in. Just needs a phone number, email address, a computer printer and some shoe leather.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 03:58:42 pm
    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

Oh, hold on, I see you've already answered that question.

I'll be happy for the rest of you not to wear a mask since it will leave more for me but given the choice I will wear one.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 04:22:37 pm
...there are apparently a lot of people who test positive without symptoms.

Do you have any references for this?  I'm sure some people test positive for SARS-CoV-2 virus exposure before showing any symptoms of the COVID-19 disease (especially with such a long and variable incubation period), whether they later develop symptoms and sickness progression or not, but I have not found any data with real numbers tracking this, how many really remain completely asymptomatic until their body learns to kill it off completely.

Also, while I keep seeing random claims that there are huge swaths of general population that have been exposed and fought it off without even knowing they had it, which would eventually lower the death rate once those asymptomatic cases are eventually discovered and recorded (from post-outbreak antibody screening, etc.) I cannot find any data supporting this claim.  The only data I can point to thus far actually suggests otherwise.

For example, the 320,000 tested in Guangdong was a rather wide sampling of the general population and they did not find a plethora of un-diagnosed cases among the general population once the initial wave was under control, suggesting that the number of true cases has not been underestimated there.

The same thing has essentially been showing up with our testing here in Alberta.  As of Friday we had tested 20360 people, anyone who has shown any possible symptoms or has been exposed to someone known to have the virus has been tested. To Friday, that was one test for every 215 residents. Only 195 cases were found, so less than 1% of those tested have actually been found to be infected.

This mirrors what was found in Guangdong, where it looks like no, it has probably not already spread as widely among the general population totally asymptomatically as some people are thinking. Now, of course, we haven't tested everyone but if we've tested a whole bunch of likely-to-be-infected people and found less than 1%, it doesn't seem to show there already being a huge undetected infected group that will eventually be found to push the death rate down by an order of magnitude.

Only time will tell.  Stay healthy, my friends!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 25, 2020, 04:30:16 pm
About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.
As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 25, 2020, 04:35:27 pm
Take cues from celebrities.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 04:38:33 pm
I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.

Why do you need to wait for the Government? We didn't sit around waiting for the government here, last week some of my neighbours printed out some flyers with contact details asking if people needed help or if there were people who were prepared to offer help and posted them through everybody's letterboxes. One instant, self-organized community support group.

If you want to do something useful, do it now. Check whether you've got some vulnerable neighbours you could shop for. See if your local church/community groups are organising something and volunteer. Or copy my neighbours and start up a neighbourhood community support group if there isn't something already existing that you can join in. Just needs a phone number, email address, a computer printer and some shoe leather.

Yeah, good point. I'm just of the mindset that if there's some overall organization of the efforts by folks who know what's important it might be more effective. If the government is involved and directing then they'd probably be aware of stuff like "hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work, and oh by the way it would be great if we could get a  zillion volunteers to help them (getting them meals, driving them around, etc)".

Personally, being one of them old boomer dudes, I'm very wary of getting too involved with a disorganized group that doesn't know all the necessary procedures to make sure we're all safe and not putting ourselves at risk.

Generally that's the ONE thing that governments can often do right :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 04:41:28 pm
About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.
As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 25, 2020, 04:48:06 pm
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].
I've see a number of 16,000 ventilators for NY. If to assume each of the 3% critical patients in ICU will get one, an estimate of total cases will look like 500,000 or something?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 25, 2020, 04:55:35 pm
Prince Charles is positive: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11216131/prince-charles-positive-coronavirus/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11216131/prince-charles-positive-coronavirus/)

Quote
It is believed he suffered mild symptoms over the weekend while at Highgrove House in Gloucester and flew privately to Scotland on Sunday night where he was tested on Monday.
(...)
Charles most recently saw the Queen "briefly" on March 12.
Medical experts believe the earliest Charles would have been contagious was March 13.

She's lucky. ::)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 25, 2020, 04:57:01 pm
Quote
Why do you need to wait for the Government?

I suspect he is envious of the British sense of humour also, but hasn't quite got it down pat.

Or maybe it takes one to know one.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 05:00:32 pm
About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.
As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?

'Admitted to ICU' != 'died'
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 25, 2020, 05:00:41 pm
    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 05:03:02 pm
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?

An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: dietert1 on March 25, 2020, 05:04:50 pm
The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease. I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.

Regards, Dieter
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 25, 2020, 05:07:59 pm
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].
I've see a number of 16,000 ventilators for NY. If to assume each of the 3% critical patients in ICU will get one, an estimate of total cases will look like 500,000 or something?
As I can remember from the briefieng gov Cuomo wants 140.000 beds with ~30.000 ventilators in the apex of the curve which comes in 21 days.
PS: he suggested the ventilators may move together with the pandemic wave accros US, thus the other states will lend their ventilators to NY first, and so on.. He offered he will organize that movement in person.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 05:08:36 pm
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?

An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.

Oh yeah...the "knock 'em down a peg guy".

Note to self: "STOP FOLLOWING THE CHAT FORUM !!!"  |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: gerts on March 25, 2020, 05:10:29 pm
If it hasn't been mentioned before (i've only read of small fraction of these posts), I'm finding Dr. John Campbell's channel on youtube to be an excellent resource for current COVID-19 info.

https://youtu.be/HJlLVpJu7ZQ
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 05:14:17 pm
The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease.

They already are.  There are now already more confirmed, active, unresolved cases in the US (over 59,000) than anywhere else in the world, including Italy, and most of the US isn't even close to catching up with testing, let alone really trying to contain the spread.

Quote
I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.

You would think so, yeah, but that is not at all the way the USA works anymore.   :(

Unfortunately this is going to cost many lives and cause unprecedented levels of unnecessary turmoil.  I guess hopefully in the end it will help some people to come to their senses and emerge from the fog, stirring some level of desire for some fundamental changes, because this was all entirely predictable...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 05:20:22 pm
    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.

Except there's no evidence to point to a lie. That's why the "If, IF," qualification. And frankly, I don't think a bunch of engineers who hadn't heard of "basic reproduction number" or "case fatality ratios" two weeks ago, some of whom think that you culture human viruses in bacteria in a Petri dish, or can't tell the difference between a virologist, an epidemiologist or a general practitioner, or think that Kreb's cycle is something that you pedal, and probably think that xenic technique is something to do with how you handle foreigners, are best placed to make the judgement whether it's a lie or not.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 05:30:30 pm
An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.

Oh yeah...the "knock 'em down a peg guy".

Note to self: "STOP FOLLOWING THE CHAT FORUM !!!"  |O

Is that your way of saying that given the current trends, you believe New York will be fine?

Oh, my...

I cannot believe the number of people everywhere, apparently just sticking their heads in the sand, trying to mumble "LA LA LA LA LA  I Can't Hear You!  LA LAA LAAA," with sand in their mouth....   :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 25, 2020, 05:44:05 pm
https://suffolktimes.timesreview.com/2020/03/gov-cuomo-feds-need-to-consider-rolling-deployment-focused-on-ny-first/

Quote
New York State has now surpassed more than 30,800 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus, with 2,260 in Suffolk County. About 3,800 people are being treated for the virus in New York hospitals with 888 in intensive care units.

The governor also repeated his estimate that New York will hit its “apex of need” — the peak number of patients being treated in hospitals — within 21 days. To meet the anticipated demand, the state still needs to find a way to acquire 15,000 ventilators and about 20,000 additional hospital beds beyond the current plan.

Mr. Cuomo said the state had 4,000 ventilators before the pandemic reached its borders and has since acquired 7,000 through purchase and 4,000 more through the federal government. Its projected need is about 30,000 ventilators and the governor said the state is exploring ways to treat two patients with one ventilator to help bridge the gap.

In order to meet the demand for hospital beds, the state has directed all hospitals to expand by 50% – with some doubling in size — the federal government is building auxiliary hospital space and supplying a Navy medical ship, and the state will use downstate college dormitories. The governor said using space in hotels and nursing homes could be a next step as the state looks to grow the number of beds to 140,000.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 25, 2020, 05:53:34 pm
Looks pretty bad :( (for approx 20M people...)
In comparison, in France we have currently a total ~22300 confirmed cases (for a total population of ~67M...)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 05:56:10 pm
The problem with the idea of moving ventilators from one outbreak to another is that it is unlikely that the surge will be over in a place like New York before they are already needed elsewhere.  You're still going to need a huge peak number and they aren't going to be able to be moved on to another hot-spot for quite some time.

Remember, that of China's 81000+ cases, almost 4500 cases are still unresolved, with about a third of those being in serious or critical condition, many of whom are probably still requiring the use of a ventilator, and they managed to curtail the major spread almost 2 months ago.

New York will likely need their 30000+ ventilators for many months.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 25, 2020, 05:57:18 pm
Yeah...

This has probably been posted several times already, but just in case: https://virusncov.com/
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: JPortici on March 25, 2020, 06:10:40 pm
Officially getting my hopes up
[attachimg=1]
However i'm not really being sold on the data from other countries (huge slow down in US,UK,Germany and france all at once  :-// )
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 25, 2020, 06:34:31 pm
Well, the confinement is certainly helping the slowdown. It's a drastic reduction in daily contacts.

That said, what looks sort of weird is that the slowdown seems correlated with the date the confinement officially started, whereas due to the incubation time, we would expect a longer latency...

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 25, 2020, 06:58:18 pm
    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.

Except there's no evidence to point to a lie. That's why the "If, IF," qualification. And frankly, I don't think a bunch of engineers who hadn't heard of "basic reproduction number" or "case fatality ratios" two weeks ago, some of whom think that you culture human viruses in bacteria in a Petri dish, or can't tell the difference between a virologist, an epidemiologist or a general practitioner, or think that Kreb's cycle is something that you pedal, and probably think that xenic technique is something to do with how you handle foreigners, are best placed to make the judgement whether it's a lie or not.

  So you looked a few fancy terms. It doesn't mean that you have any idea of what you're talking about.

   And in case you missed it, after weeks of the WHO, CDC and other "experts"claiming that industrial grade masks weren't effective against the virus, US officials are now suddenly saying that they good enough to be used in hospitals!  They claim that the problem was that industrial mask makers don't have the liability insurance to make that claim but now the US has passed a law removing any liability against them. BINGO!  Now the US is supplying industrial grade masks to hospitals!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 06:58:40 pm
However i'm not really being sold on the data from other countries (huge slow down in US,UK,Germany and france all at once  :-// )

Well, I can't speak for the others, but based on my own observations here in East London, in the UK the vast majority of people were already isolating themselves a week ago, and two weeks ago a significant proportion had already started to isolate themselves - based on observing 5-10% of normal road traffic yesterday, 10-20% a week ago and 30-50% two weeks ago. Tie that in with incubation times and I would have expected a drop in new case rates round about now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Deni on March 25, 2020, 06:59:59 pm
Can somebody comment/explain this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI)

and especially this:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 25, 2020, 07:01:56 pm
Can somebody comment/explain this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI)

and especially this:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)

Yes, easily. He's an idiot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 07:22:43 pm
  So you looked a few fancy terms. It doesn't mean that you have any idea of what you're talking about.

Kind of the point. It so happens that I do know what they mean and didn't need to look anything up because before I was what I am now I was on course to become a biochemist, but that's frankly irrelevant because I'm not setting myself out as either the expert or in a valid position to challenge the experts - however, many people with even less biomedical knowledge than me are setting themselves out to challenge the advice of the experts. I know that I know little enough to defray to the experts, others seem to be only too happy to go full Dunning-Kruger on this because "we're engineers".

To a biochemist 'transconductance' and 'reactance' are 'fancy' terms. That you use 'fancy' in that disparaging way would seem to indicate a degree of contempt for people whose speciality is not yours. That kind of anti-intellectualism is normal in some circles but is hardly becoming of someone who would describe themselves as an engineer. What's next "Hey look boys, we got ourselves a reader."?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwkdGr9JYmE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwkdGr9JYmE)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 07:35:41 pm
The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease. I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.

Regards, Dieter

I wrote that several days ago (I was overly pessimistic, US are doing a bit better than what I feared)

Due to the different TZ, US data are updated up to the next morning (European time)
by then US cases figure will be close to the Italian one
the day after tomorrow in the morning, US will surely be the first country in the world for amount of positive cases
deaths figure of course lags a few weeks behind

everybody who's been looking at the pandemic development in Italy should have been able to see that

BTW here in Italy both new cases and new deaths have been steadily decreasing since several days
some WHO guy declared that the peak is not so far away... probably Spain is 5-7 days behind us (I hope less)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 25, 2020, 07:39:09 pm
Yeah...

This has probably been posted several times already, but just in case: https://virusncov.com/ (https://virusncov.com/)

That site looks almost identical to Worldometer <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/>. If you click on the name of a country (the US for example) it will give you a state by state breakdown. New York is in deep trouble.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 07:41:47 pm
Can somebody comment/explain this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI)

and especially this:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)

Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

And presumably you base that on watching the video? Odd then that you were able to respond at 19:01:56 to a comment posted at 18:59:59 - a whole 2 minutes to watch a 10 minute video and compose a comment about it? Impressive.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wallace Gasiewicz on March 25, 2020, 07:46:40 pm
There are a few articles out there with positive patients who are asymptomatic.
Here is one:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/ (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/)

Other studies have shown huge problems with the testing showing lots of false positives.
It is a new test and different countries are using different tests.
If you really want to confuse yourself here is another article

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925523 (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925523)

In the end if someone is sick, IN MY OPINION,the physician should treat the most likely cause, here a proven reliable test would be helpful because symptoms of flu and covid  have a large overlap.
We really do not know the sensitivity and specificity of the current tests yet, medical tests have false positives and false negatives. I am sure there are articles published but these tests are so new one must take them with a modicum of uncertainty.
I know I am referencing articles from China and I must admit there is always a bit of doubt about their veracity.
I am adding another reference
https://www.dw.com/en/up-to-30-of-coronavirus-cases-asymptomatic/a-52900988 (https://www.dw.com/en/up-to-30-of-coronavirus-cases-asymptomatic/a-52900988)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 25, 2020, 07:55:49 pm
Can somebody comment/explain this?
and especially this:
I would say he thinks aloud whether the scientific community can, or is willing (because of the panic) to discuss critically (aka critical thinking) how is the contribution of the cases caused by the known "old" corona viruses during the season (as there is a large number of various "corona viruses" existing, they usually mixing with influenza viruses during the season) versus the current contribution of "sars-cov-2 corona virus". You have to be good in german to understand the "nuances" of his loud thinking (not reading the subtitles), while I can I would say he indicates that he thinks the scientists have got a pretty hard time today to discuss that "critically".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 07:57:05 pm
Officially getting my hopes up
(Attachment Link)
However i'm not really being sold on the data from other countries (huge slow down in US,UK,Germany and france all at once  :-// )

one problem is that here in Italy we update the figure once a day while other countries do that more often

to get a better idea you should compare the timelines reported by wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#Timeline (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#Timeline)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany#Timeline_by_state (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany#Timeline_by_state)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_France#Timeline (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_France#Timeline)

and so on

besides that while we were caught completely off-guard, some people in those countries is likely to have started to care even before any measure of the respective governments... we were the canary in the coal mine  :)

people of other countries, if not their governments, has had some more time to get ready for this mess
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 08:08:44 pm
Can somebody comment/explain this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI)

and especially this:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)

he makes me fall asleep  ;D
can anybody summarize that ?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 08:26:33 pm
Can somebody comment/explain this?
and especially this:
I would say he thinks aloud whether the scientific community can, or is willing (because of the panic) to discuss critically how is the contribution of the cases caused by the known "old" corona viruses during the season (as there is a large number of various "corona viruses" existing, they usually mixing with influenza viruses during the season) versus the current contribution of "sars-cov-2 corona virus". You have to be good in german to understand the "nuances" of his loud thinking, while I can I would say he indicates that he thinks the scientists have got a pretty hard time today to discuss that "critically".

there is a limited (not at all large) amount of coronaviruses able to infect humans:
- Human Coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E)
- Human Coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43)
- Human Coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63)
- Human Coronavirus HKU1 (HCoV-HFU1[3])
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV)
- MERS-CoV (AKA Human Coronavirus Erasmus Medical Center/2012 HCoV-EMC/2012)
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)

the first four have been with us since centuries and just cause flu like symptoms

SARS and MERS are deadly, while SARS-CoV-2 might became as mild as the first four once we get vaccines (and herd immunity)

besides that, yes, COVID-19 tests are new, may be not the same in each country and like most medical tests give a (still unclear) percentage of false positive/negative results

so what does that guy say we do not know yet?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 25, 2020, 08:29:29 pm
Can somebody comment/explain this?

Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

And presumably you base that on watching the video? Odd then that you were able to respond at 19:01:56 to a comment posted at 18:59:59 - a whole 2 minutes to watch a 10 minute video and compose a comment about it? Impressive.

Well, you got me. I admit it: my life doesn't entirely revolve around this forum and this thread in particular. Despite my perceived obsession with this ongoing discussion, I do obtain information from outside of this bubble of opinions.

Let's just say: he's a well known figure claiming that the whole "corona pandemic" is completely blown out of proportion by virologists and politicians. "Nothing to see here, move along!". I didn't even watch the video until just now, I was pretty sure to know what's going to be in it.

I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it:

* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 08:36:14 pm
"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,

While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus.  Given the current lack of reliable  PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.

Graduating new doctors and nurses a bit early from their school programs, though, would probably make a lot of sense.  Being allowed to help with basic care, even if they haven't technically completed every requirement yet might be rather useful very soon.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 08:37:17 pm
I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it:

* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.
:palm:
so he's just the usual nut who pretends he is the only one who knows the truth while all the other guys are just fools...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 25, 2020, 08:40:01 pm
"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,

While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus.  Given the current lack of reliable  PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.

Graduating new doctors and nurses a bit early from their school programs, though, would probably make a lot of sense.  Being allowed to help with basic care, even if they haven't technically completed every requirement yet might be rather useful very soon.

they had to rely on both measures in the most stricken part of Italy
tenths of doctors have died during the last month
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 25, 2020, 08:47:51 pm
I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it:

* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.
:palm:
so he's just the usual nut who pretends he is the only one who knows the truth while all the other guys are just fools...
Yes. The typical Youtube mis-information clickbait.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 08:49:09 pm
they had to rely on both measures in the most stricken part of Italy
tenths of doctors have died during the last month

Yes, I know....  A terrible situation all the way around.

Our thoughts are with all of those affected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 25, 2020, 08:51:08 pm
I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it:

* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.
:palm:
so he's just the usual nut who pretends he is the only one who knows the truth while all the other guys are just fools...
Yes. The typical Youtube mis-information clickbait.
To be honest, my initial reaction was this has all been blown out of proportion, but I soon realised I was obviously wrong. I'm glad I wasn't running the country.

If he still doesn't believe it's a problem, perhaps he should visit Italy?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 08:55:33 pm
There are a few articles out there with positive patients who are asymptomatic.
Here is one:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/ (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/)

Interesting, thank you. 

In case anyone is interested, here is a link to the actual paper, instead of just the abstract with multiple links to jump through to find the .PDF:

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4.pdf

I had not seen that one yet, I will have to read it in detail as soon as I have a moment.

Right now, though, I must venture out for a bit....
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 25, 2020, 08:58:58 pm
"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,

While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus.  Given the current lack of reliable  PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.

Graduating new doctors and nurses a bit early from their school programs, though, would probably make a lot of sense.  Being allowed to help with basic care, even if they haven't technically completed every requirement yet might be rather useful very soon.

they had to rely on both measures in the most stricken part of Italy
tenths of doctors have died during the last month

Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 25, 2020, 09:31:55 pm
Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.

FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.

Here's where the US stands:

- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.

- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report

- #3 in confirmed cases to date.

- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.

- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 25, 2020, 09:33:58 pm
While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus.  Given the current lack of reliable  PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.

They don't necessarily have to get pushed into the front line. They can fill in in lower risk rôles to free up the doctors currently doing that for front line duty. Although there is a quantity of stuff that the health care system can postpone, let's not forget that there's a lot of other urgent and emergency stuff going on all the time that isn't going away and still needs doctors and nurses to deal with.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 25, 2020, 10:17:02 pm
Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?

I do not think they know some secret magic recipes  but in this difficult situation for Italy any help with resources, human and technical ones, is a big relief. The Russians sent 15 monster cargo planes full of equipment and desinfecting trucks, but it is probably too early to estimate results as that happened just over the last 48 hrs.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 25, 2020, 10:24:22 pm
They don't necessarily have to get pushed into the front line. They can fill in in lower risk rôles to free up the doctors currently doing that for front line duty. Although there is a quantity of stuff that the health care system can postpone, let's not forget that there's a lot of other urgent and emergency stuff going on all the time that isn't going away and still needs doctors and nurses to deal with.

That is a good point.

+1 Touche

I hope most hospitals will be able to properly isolate the areas treating COVID-19 from the rest of the buildings.  I know China went to great lengths on this... 

If isolation can be maintained there through the shortages of protective gear, that will certainly help.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 25, 2020, 11:16:46 pm
"Luckily" Over half of the US cases right now are one state. 1/4 Are new york county(basically new york city). Most of the other quarter are in nearby nassau county, followed by Suffolk, Rockland, and Orange(I used to live here). I don't know if any other state is going to get it as bad as them. They shutdown almost the same time as my state, California, but I don't think we have anywhere near the population density they have. I'm actually newly sick today after going to the doctor for a hospital stay follow-up. I'm hoping it's just from my son constantly running in my room and coughing on me but who knows. With any luck we'll start seeing new infections level off in a couple weeks, Although I don't know how much hope I have for new york at this point. I know they just recently opened up a drive through testing station by me that doesn't require an appt so that should, statistically, help us get a better picture here. The valley is relatively dense. Now all the people who refuse to stay home can stop by there while they're party hopping.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 25, 2020, 11:48:28 pm
I know they just recently opened up a drive through testing station by me that doesn't require an appt so that should, statistically, help us get a better picture here. The valley is relatively dense. Now all the people who refuse to stay home can stop by there while they're party hopping.

I heard while it does not require an appointment, they still triage people at the entrance so not everyone gets a test. Is that correct?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 12:12:47 am
I'm not sure about specifics, I'd basically have to go down there to learn more and I can't drive ATM. I don't want to take my wife and kids down there either. As soon as I can I'd be happy to find out. That's more an issue of time if they do though, not that they won't test you just need to wait longer.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 26, 2020, 12:36:21 am
I heard while it does not require an appointment, they still triage people at the entrance so not everyone gets a test. Is that correct?

I'm not sure about specifics, I'd basically have to go down there to learn more and I can't drive ATM. I don't want to take my wife and kids down there either. As soon as I can I'd be happy to find out. That's more an issue of time if they do though, not that they won't test you just need to wait longer.

I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests and the lab supplies to process them in (at least most areas of) the US.

It will be nice when they get to the capacity level to actually be able to test anyone from the general public without having to ration the tests, which gives better insight into the actual spread, rather than just trying to catch up with testing the symptomatic individuals, etc.  Here in Alberta we have tested a total of 35508 people thus far, or one test for every 123 residents, with 419 positive results, or about a 1.2% positive rate of those tested.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 26, 2020, 01:48:57 am
Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.

FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.

Here's where the US stands:

- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.

- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report

- #3 in confirmed cases to date.

- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.

- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population



Are these casualties collateral damage the result of violence and or stampede crushing at the supermarket over toilet paper ?  :-//


An important message from the WHO:  :clap:


www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q)


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 26, 2020, 02:26:18 am
Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.

FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.

Here's where the US stands:

- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.
- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report
- #3 in confirmed cases to date.
- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.
- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population

Ok. All true enough.  I don't understand what point you're trying to make, though.

They are also:
- #1 in active, unresolved cases.
- #1 in new confirmed infections per day
- #1 in speed of rise in cases since first 100 detected
(the slope of the line is almost right on the doubles-every-2-days line, surpassing Italy and Spain)

Within the next 48h they will also become the country with the highest number of total confirmed cases.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 03:22:33 am
I heard while it does not require an appointment, they still triage people at the entrance so not everyone gets a test. Is that correct?

I'm not sure about specifics, I'd basically have to go down there to learn more and I can't drive ATM. I don't want to take my wife and kids down there either. As soon as I can I'd be happy to find out. That's more an issue of time if they do though, not that they won't test you just need to wait longer.

I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...

That would be discrimination. The by appt. ones are definitely more exclusive. In fact, I had all the symptoms and couldn't get tested. I think approving places like LabCorp to do testing is going to be a bigger help than having govt control everything.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 26, 2020, 04:56:57 am
Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?

I do not think they know some secret magic recipes  but in this difficult situation for Italy any help with resources, human and technical ones, is a big relief. The Russians sent 15 monster cargo planes full of equipment and desinfecting trucks, but it is probably too early to estimate results as that happened just over the last 48 hrs.

There they are going to Bergamo, lots of trucks.

https://youtu.be/GvOUuhaM4bM (https://youtu.be/GvOUuhaM4bM)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 26, 2020, 05:26:58 am

I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...

That would be discrimination. The by appt. ones are definitely more exclusive. In fact, I had all the symptoms and couldn't get tested. I think approving places like LabCorp to do testing is going to be a bigger help than having govt control everything.

Yup, but using that word to describe it doesn't make it illegal. Discrimination is called triage when insufficient resources are being allocated to an emergency situation. Think of this as a preview of what happens when some hospitals are low on ventilators, not just testing ability. The ones getting hospitalization today are lucky in the sense that they're getting proper care before the capacity is exhausted. Some of those needing respiratory care later on are not going to survive a normally survivable situation.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 05:30:33 am

I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...

That would be discrimination. The by appt. ones are definitely more exclusive. In fact, I had all the symptoms and couldn't get tested. I think approving places like LabCorp to do testing is going to be a bigger help than having govt control everything.

Yup, but using that word to describe it doesn't make it illegal. Discrimination is called triage when insufficient resources are being allocated to an emergency situation. Think of this as a preview of what happens when some hospitals are low on ventilators, not just testing ability. The ones getting hospitalization today are lucky in the sense that they're getting proper care before the capacity is exhausted. Some of those needing respiratory care later on are not going to survive a normally survivable situation.

Sorry, it was a joke.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 26, 2020, 05:32:22 am
Detailed localized modeling for New Zealand has been made available

https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/03/26/suppression-and-mitigation-strategies-for-control-of-covid-19-in-new-zealand/ (https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/03/26/suppression-and-mitigation-strategies-for-control-of-covid-19-in-new-zealand/)

Click on the "LINK TO FULL PDF HERE"

EDIT: Summary: From table 2 - 1.25% to 1.67% population fatality rate under all different scenarios, unless a vaccine is available before the suppression measures are removed.

From figure 3 - all six different scenarios result in hospital capacity being greatly exceeded, either during the controls or after they are removed.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 26, 2020, 05:42:52 am
  So you looked a few fancy terms. It doesn't mean that you have any idea of what you're talking about.

   And in case you missed it, after weeks of the WHO, CDC and other "experts"claiming that industrial grade masks weren't effective against the virus, US officials are now suddenly saying that they good enough to be used in hospitals!  They claim that the problem was that industrial mask makers don't have the liability insurance to make that claim but now the US has passed a law removing any liability against them. BINGO!  Now the US is supplying industrial grade masks to hospitals!
Some people on here actually do have a clue what they're talking about. Most seem to want to avoid an argument from authority and present worthwhile information instead. Not all opinions are created equal.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 06:42:13 am
Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?

I do not think they know some secret magic recipes  but in this difficult situation for Italy any help with resources, human and technical ones, is a big relief. The Russians sent 15 monster cargo planes full of equipment and desinfecting trucks, but it is probably too early to estimate results as that happened just over the last 48 hrs.

There they are going to Bergamo, lots of trucks.

https://youtu.be/GvOUuhaM4bM (https://youtu.be/GvOUuhaM4bM)

Unfortunately TANSTAAFL.
I searched the net to get a clearer idea.
There is a lot of pompous coverage from right-far-right newspapers, not so much on (a bit more) independent press (so many FUDsters here I no longer know who I can trust).

Somebody wrote that those supplies from China (including 100 million face masks of various kind) are anyway paid by us. Didn't find any details about those brought by Russian army. Surely we'll have to pay those too, more or less directly, in a way or another.

I trust China more as they do have more real experience and were more sensible in comparison with that sort of Russian army parade.
Helps are appreciated, but let's not forget that they are mostly a form of propaganda aimed both to their own people and to us and unfortunately they are just another proof of the failure of Europe as an Union.

IMHO the pandemic itself, the invasion of aliens species ravaging our crops and woods, the lack of resources of public health systems and so many other current social problems are the natural outcome of an upside-down world where free enterprise comes before the rights and the freedom of the people.
And unfortunately the situation might even become worse than now with more or less manifest dictatorships replacing what is left of democracies.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: JPortici on March 26, 2020, 06:45:40 am
That said, what looks sort of weird is that the slowdown seems correlated with the date the confinement officially started, whereas due to the incubation time, we would expect a longer latency...

Well, yes, that's why i waited for some days before starting to get my hopes up.
Also, containment measures in lombardia and veneto (the most afflicted regions at the time) started about 3-7 days before national scale containment was enacted.
I expect there to be a slow down and then another rapid rise, because there was the mass of people from southern italy living in the north that panicked and returned in mass to the south before they could effectively restrict public transport

In the long run the graphs per region will show several bells, with those from the south having the peak at least 30 days after the ones from the north, delaying the end of the emergency.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: basinstreetdesign on March 26, 2020, 07:04:29 am
For anybody that thinks social distancing is not a particularly powerful weapon against the virus watch this...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZB6jajr7an0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZB6jajr7an0)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 26, 2020, 08:04:30 am
Mr.Scram,
How often do you wear a proper equipment?
You sound very well versed in the art.
Please share your personal killer tips as a professional.
I am just curious, because I wear P100 respirators, sealed goggles and FFP3 masks on a daily basis.  Maybe I have been endangering myself all this time?
Thanks for your help with this matter.
Leo

I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 26, 2020, 08:07:33 am
On Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, I assume is this guy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg#Public_appearance_in_the_2020_COVID-19_crisis

I don't think he is absolutely wrong.  I'm not a doctor.  I think he has some valid points of false positives and normal "flu season" noise getting picked up in the numbers.   Actually worth listening to for a different point of view.

However.  Countries like Italy and cities New York are not normally overrun with critical cases in a normal flu season.  Also I'm not sure the flu season, even with unrestricted movements, rises that fast in death rate.

So even if you remove the potentially flawed (as he suggests) testing entirely, we still have something serious going on or the ICUs wouldn't be filling up and people dying in corridors.

Finally, if we just sat back and said it was hype and later (like now) we discover that hype or no hype it's killing thousands of people daily at a still rising rate exceeding most flu seasons, it would be even more too late than it currently is.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: dietert1 on March 26, 2020, 08:10:25 am
Social distancing slows down the virus outbreak, yet it causes lots of other damages. It can only be an emergency measure.

Let's see what happens next in China. I guess people in the west should learn as fast as possible how make and properly use masks. Western media should contribute in that effort. Also western leaders should give a good example and use masks. How can anybody seriously propose to loosen shutdown and not tell people at the same time they will have to wear masks whenever they leave their house. I am not talking about those simple medical masks. Everybody will need a pile of fitted masks so there is a fresh one whenever you need it.

Regards, Dieter
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 26, 2020, 08:11:32 am
In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.

In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.

This is the spirit we like to see.

Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.

Really?? That's wonderful.

I dunno, I've grown up with a huge respect for the people in the UK. Y'know, "stiff upper lip" and all. They always seemed to be the "adults in the room" while the rest of the world is flailing around. Not sure how it's been in recent years, but it's good to see that they're yet again a role model. 

Not anymore. We have a dual pandemic, the virus itself and stupidity. The government are pretending that if they tell people what to do they will do it and we are different and don't need any of this lockdown rubbish but reality is plenty of people are not being sensible.

At work the shop floor staff take the piss that us office people get to work from home whilst not all of them are being sensible. When they all get it together and we have to close us office bods that have it easy will be the ones continuing to work from home whilst the nut and bolt assemblers will be at home having it easy.

They created a company wide whtsapp group and in two hours had to close it due to the stupidity going around on it. They were so stupid that it took 1 in 20+ 2 hours to figure out that management were in the group too...... That's your stiff upper lip brits.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 08:43:51 am
Social distancing slows down the virus outbreak, yet it causes lots of other damages. It can only be an emergency measure.

Let's see what happens next in China. I guess people in the west should learn as fast as possible how make and properly use masks. Western media should contribute in that effort. Also western leaders should give a good example and use masks. How can anybody seriously propose to loosen shutdown and not tell people at the same time they will have to wear masks whenever they leave their house. I am not talking about those simple medical masks. Everybody will need a pile of fitted masks so there is a fresh one whenever you need it.

Regards, Dieter

Waiting for a pile of fitted masks is like waiting for Godot..

PS: China produces around 120mil/day of the simplest "surgical" masks (optimistic estimate, it is 12x than in February)). Let assume they will increase 5x, that is 600mil/day. That is half of Europe's and US' daily consumption. Imagine the logistics as well..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 09:15:58 am
That said, what looks sort of weird is that the slowdown seems correlated with the date the confinement officially started, whereas due to the incubation time, we would expect a longer latency...

Well, yes, that's why i waited for some days before starting to get my hopes up.
Also, containment measures in lombardia and veneto (the most afflicted regions at the time) started about 3-7 days before national scale containment was enacted.
I expect there to be a slow down and then another rapid rise, because there was the mass of people from southern italy living in the north that panicked and returned in mass to the south before they could effectively restrict public transport

In the long run the graphs per region will show several bells, with those from the south having the peak at least 30 days after the ones from the north, delaying the end of the emergency.

The uncontrolled exodus was mostly caused by the usual FUDsters spreading the news of the northern lock-down while it had not yet been decided and so nobody could organize the due controls.

Pls check: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#By_regions (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#By_regions)
I think new cases figures will stay around 100-200/region with daily fluctuations and then get lower in 1-2 weeks.
Apulia seems to be on the right track but it is too early to be sure.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 26, 2020, 09:20:44 am
Apulia or Puglia as I knew it when I lived there apparently has people being stopped even from town to town to see if their journey is necessary although my friend lies to get through so that he can go and eat at his parents. It's also a very insular and rural area so even with many people going about their daily work providing they do sensible things at shops.

Here I see shops starting to implement distance queuing and limited amounts of people in at one time because us more intelligent stiff upper lip just carry on blitz spirit brits are just too stupid to stay 2m apart and not crowd into shops.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 09:25:57 am
On Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, I assume is this guy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg#Public_appearance_in_the_2020_COVID-19_crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg#Public_appearance_in_the_2020_COVID-19_crisis)

I don't think he is absolutely wrong.  I'm not a doctor.  I think he has some valid points of false positives and normal "flu season" noise getting picked up in the numbers.   Actually worth listening to for a different point of view.

just have a look at this article to have an idea about how much that a*e is wrong:
The real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers (https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml)

While of course that is just a piece of data, that's true for a small town and we cannot be sure how much that's apply that applies to all the various regions of Italy or to the whole country, yet it gives an idea that only an idiot can think there is an overestimation of deaths.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 26, 2020, 09:44:36 am
In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.

In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.

This is the spirit we like to see.

Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.

Really?? That's wonderful.

I dunno, I've grown up with a huge respect for the people in the UK. Y'know, "stiff upper lip" and all. They always seemed to be the "adults in the room" while the rest of the world is flailing around. Not sure how it's been in recent years, but it's good to see that they're yet again a role model. 

Not anymore. We have a dual pandemic, the virus itself and stupidity. The government are pretending that if they tell people what to do they will do it and we are different and don't need any of this lockdown rubbish but reality is plenty of people are not being sensible.

At work the shop floor staff take the piss that us office people get to work from home whilst not all of them are being sensible. When they all get it together and we have to close us office bods that have it easy will be the ones continuing to work from home whilst the nut and bolt assemblers will be at home having it easy.

They created a company wide whtsapp group and in two hours had to close it due to the stupidity going around on it. They were so stupid that it took 1 in 20+ 2 hours to figure out that management were in the group too...... That's your stiff upper lip brits.
It's brought out the best, as well as the worst in people. The government have been inundated with volunteers to help out with this emergency.
Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.

FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.

Here's where the US stands:

- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.
- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report
- #3 in confirmed cases to date.
- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.
- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population

Ok. All true enough.  I don't understand what point you're trying to make, though.

They are also:
- #1 in active, unresolved cases.
- #1 in new confirmed infections per day
- #1 in speed of rise in cases since first 100 detected
(the slope of the line is almost right on the doubles-every-2-days line, surpassing Italy and Spain)

Within the next 48h they will also become the country with the highest number of total confirmed cases.
The number of deaths as well as cases is likely to be underestimated, because some people die at home. There will also be lots of people who will indirectly killed because they're suffering from other illnesses and can't be treated because all the beds are taken by COVID-19 patients.

Although rare, it can kill young, previously healthy patients. A 21 old, previously healthy women was recently killed by Covid-19.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52041709 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52041709)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 09:46:10 am
Apulia or Puglia as I knew it when I lived there apparently has people being stopped even from town to town to see if their journey is necessary although my friend lies to get through so that he can go and eat at his parents. It's also a very insular and rural area so even with many people going about their daily work providing they do sensible things at shops.

Here I see shops starting to implement distance queuing and limited amounts of people in at one time because us more intelligent stiff upper lip just carry on blitz spirit brits are just too stupid to stay 2m apart and not crowd into shops.

In Italy, like in most countries there are more sensible people who abide by the rules (that serve one's own health), and others that, out of utter ignorance and stupidity, just do not care. The proportion of those is likely different in every country, but as soon as some people they know dies, those latter may change their attitude.

I get out as few times as I can (usually once or twice a week) with the only FFP3 mask left from the stock I bought one year ago.
There are not so many people around. But even in the really short time I was out I witnessed various display of pure idiocy like a 40-50 y-old woman who took off her mask to kiss a young man (may be a relative who'd just arrived from north Italy ?) and so on.

The problem is that those idiots may survive and still kill other people who do not deserve that (e.g. health care staff).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 26, 2020, 09:48:04 am
the government forgets that they expect us to keep working. I'd have limited time to volunteer. The largest amount of people available to volunteer might just be the people the government have screwed over with their half arsed economic measures. Hopefully these are all genuine volunteers and not people that will flake out ass soon as they are actually asked to do something.

My main concern is remaining virus free so that I can get food and medicine for my dad.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 10:04:11 am
..While of course that is just a piece of data, that's true for a small town and we cannot be sure how much that's apply to all the various regions of Italy or to the whole country, yet it gives an idea that only an idiot can think there is an overestimation of deaths.

Decades back I had the pleasure to spend a couple of years with doctors implementing an IT system for them (a "decision support system"). The doctors were the authorities, mostly senior experts, working for governmental bodies. The first thing they do when evaluating data is they are searching for "outliers" and they kick out the "outliers" from the data set without any long discussion. Then they create the statistics. The outliers were related for example to mortality (a highly sensitive topic today), not to "zener diodes with the knee a bit off". Guess how they will evaluate the 2020 pandemic in Europe.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 26, 2020, 10:11:33 am
This virus highlights the wealth gap between the haves and have-nots.

Here is a solution to isolating the homeless in London, Melbourne and many other cities infested with foreign ghost property owners. The government takes over the empty apartments owned by foreigners to be used for the homeless until the virus is no longer a threat. No compensation to the owners. In Melbourne there are around 80,000 permanently empty apartments and houses owned by mostly foreigners, many of whom are just hiding money here.

It was reported in the media the landlords are crying poor and want assistance from the taxpayer if people cannot pay their rents. A handout cash splash for landlords will likely happen because most of the politicians are housing investors, and they always agree unanimously on any legislation that feathers their own nests. The renters who lost their jobs need supporting, not greedy f%#king landlords.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on March 26, 2020, 10:22:25 am
The renters who lost their jobs need supporting, not greedy f%#king landlords.
Or, put in more neutral terms (so even money-oriented politicians understand), landlords are not risking their investment, only a fraction of their return on investment, whereas most of the renters are at risk of homelessness, because they cannot work and get paid, and thus are having difficulty paying their rent.  We take care of the renters, and the landlords get theirs too automatically (and will not lose even that fraction of their returns).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 26, 2020, 10:27:52 am
This virus highlights the wealth gap between the haves and have-nots.

Here is a solution to isolating the homeless in London, Melbourne and many other cities infested with foreign ghost property owners. The government takes over the empty apartments owned by foreigners to be used for the homeless until the virus is no longer a threat. No compensation to the owners. In Melbourne there are around 80,000 permanently empty apartments and houses owned by mostly foreigners, many of whom are just hiding money here.

It was reported in the media the landlords are crying poor and want assistance from the taxpayer if people cannot pay their rents. A handout cash splash for landlords will likely happen because most of the politicians are housing investors, and they always agree unanimously on any legislation that feathers their own nests. The renters who lost their jobs need supporting, not greedy f%#king landlords.

Indeed in the UK the government has moved to protect big business first. Self employed people still do not know where they stand and the 80% for employees no doubt comes with fine print like the company being ordered to close (I have not read it).

I was not amused at the language I saw in a BBC article. While the government was willing to spend £2.4M daily on purchasing private hospital facilities at the going commercial rate they were willing to requisition hotels. After the stink kicked up by all of us at the private sector profiteering the government have done an "at cost" deal with the private health sector. We still do not know how much that is and I am sure it is bound in confidentiality as the private healthcare companies hardly want to expose how much they are making out of the devastation to the national service which encourages people to pay to see the same doctor privately and get given tea and biscuits too...

The homeless indeed have a problem. But the government have never given a toss about the homeless.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 26, 2020, 11:06:37 am
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask. I expected it would be a quick process and intended to maintain a safe distance but when their computers went offline I suddenly found myself stuck in a close proximity queue for thirty minutes more than I would have liked.

Note to self: Don't count on the competence of others.   ::)       
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 11:46:23 am
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask. I expected it would be a quick process and intended to maintain a safe distance but when their computers went offline I suddenly found myself stuck in a close proximity queue for thirty minutes more than I would have liked.

Note to self: Don't count on the competence of others.   ::)       

can't you do that online?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 26, 2020, 11:53:13 am
In Italy, like in most countries there are more sensible people who abide by the rules (that serve one's own health), and others that, out of utter ignorance and stupidity, just do not care. The proportion of those is likely different in every country, but as soon as some people they know dies, those latter may change their attitude.

I get out as few times as I can (usually once or twice a week) with the only FFP3 mask left from the stock I bought one year ago.
There are not so many people around. But even in the really short time I was out I witnessed various display of pure idiocy like a 40-50 y-old woman who took off her mask to kiss a young man (may be a relative who'd just arrived from north Italy ?) and so on.

The problem is that those idiots may survive and still kill other people who do not deserve that (e.g. health care staff).
At least in that case, he's statistically speaking got more chance of surviving than her, but he might infect his parents or grandparents who don't stand a chance, especially if he still lives with his family, which I know is often the case, especially in areas where property prices are high.

Clinicians are having to make some difficult decisions. There are plenty of people who they have to leave to die because they stand a lower chance of survival, than relatively young and fit people who have this. If there's only one intensive care bed available, yet two patients who badly need it: someone in their 90s and another in their 40s, doctor will give it to the person in their 40s, who stands a higher chance of survival, dose the older patient heavily with morphine and allow them to die. This will be very difficult for anyone working in a hospital to deal with.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 26, 2020, 12:13:06 pm
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....
can't you do that online?
Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   ::)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 12:38:34 pm
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....
can't you do that online?
Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   ::)
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same..  :scared:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 26, 2020, 12:55:08 pm
One great thing in Finland right now is that mostly, maybe except for some limited areas in very central Helsinki, we live sparsely, compared to any large European city (let alone New York :phew:). Even in our typical 100k people cities, you can pretty much take a walk without having to face too many people on the way, and can easily maintain two meters of distance all the time. This is why we are unlikely to see full-blown curfews here; it's enough to limit people actually gathering indoors (or dense outdoor activities), but we have enough sidewalk space, not to even talk about the forests.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 26, 2020, 01:06:50 pm
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....
can't you do that online?
Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   ::)
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same..  :scared:

Reminds me of the local public transport companies advert slogan they put up on roads.

You aren't stuck in traffic, you ARE traffic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 26, 2020, 02:53:42 pm
Mr.Scram,
How often do you wear a proper equipment?
You sound very well versed in the art.
Please share your personal killer tips as a professional.
I am just curious, because I wear P100 respirators, sealed goggles and FFP3 masks on a daily basis.  Maybe I have been endangering myself all this time?
Thanks for your help with this matter.
Leo

I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.

While you're being sarky with Le Scram, do you wear PPE on a daily basis in an infection control setting, or just an industrial one? If the later, are you assuming that your expertise in one area automatically transfers to the other?

Believe it or not there is a difference. If you're wearing a mast to protect you from non-toxic dusts, or solvents and the like, or protect a clean room from you, you generally don't do to great lengths to avoid touching contaminated parts of the mask, gloves, gowns and goggles. Also you don't treat them as a strict single use item - e.g. You'll take a mask off on leaving a hazard area and then re-use it on entering. I can say that in industrial settings I've rarely encountered situations where a full set of PPE is donned, used for 15 minutes and then all disposed of, with the procedure repeated immediately as it would be for a different patient in an infection control situation.

For the record, I've been trained to use PPE (including respirators) in industrial settings and in a microbiology lab (a relatively low risk environment as one is not usually deliberately culturing serious pathogens, but one takes precautions because one might accidental culture serious pathogens). All bets are off at the moment because with a beard I'm not going to pass a fit/leak test for a respirator anyway. I can personally attest that practice in the two arenas is quite different.

Here's a version of just the recommended removal procedure when using PPE in an infection control setting:

[attachimg=1]

Original PDF HERE (https://www.cdc.gov/hai/pdfs/ppe/PPE-Sequence.pdf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 03:01:04 pm
One great thing in Finland right now is that mostly, maybe except for some limited areas in very central Helsinki, we live sparsely, compared to any large European city (let alone New York :phew:). Even in our typical 100k people cities, you can pretty much take a walk without having to face too many people on the way, and can easily maintain two meters of distance all the time. This is why we are unlikely to see full-blown curfews here; it's enough to limit people actually gathering indoors (or dense outdoor activities), but we have enough sidewalk space, not to even talk about the forests.

Yep - clearly that's where there is a huge difference between regions/countries. In northern countries, density is usually a lot lower, people also tend to keep to themselves, they don't like to sit too close to others in public transports, etc.

Italy is one example of almost the complete opposite.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 26, 2020, 03:08:23 pm
The number of deaths as well as cases is likely to be underestimated, because some people die at home.

Although it might take a little bit longer to feed into the statistics (or might not at the moment), those deaths are still recorded.

Around here, if you don't get a doctor to sign a death certificate (which is officially recorded by the local coroner) and just bury the body in the back yard they tend to start a murder investigation.

Top tip. If you want to bump someone off at the moment, use a method that mimics pneumonia*. Chances that you get caught are slim to none.  >:D


* No, I am not going to tell you how. Yes, your boss is a horror, but don't you think homicide is a bit of an extreme response to no pay rise for two years and a lot of unpaid overtime?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 03:10:42 pm
Top tip. If you want to bump someone off at the moment, use a method that mimics pneumonia*. Chances that you get caught are slim to none.  >:D


* No, I am not going to tell you how. Yes, your boss is a horror, but don't you think homicide is a bit of an extreme response to no pay rise for two years and a lot of unpaid overtime?

 ::)
Don't give people such ideas.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 26, 2020, 03:56:34 pm
Canadian govt has planned to give extra money to everyone with moderate to low income with kids and $2000 / month for 4 months to people who are out of work because of covid.

BC, Canada govt made new rule that tenants cant be evicted for not paying rent. They are also paying $500/month to landlords if their tenants say they are losing money because of covid.  Standard rent is $1000 - $2000 / month.

I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.

Neither my wife nor myself get any free covid money but we expect to pay more taxes soon.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 04:10:28 pm
Canadian govt has planned to give extra money to everyone with moderate to low income with kids and $2000 / month for 4 months to people who are out of work because of covid.

BC, Canada govt made new rule that tenants cant be evicted for not paying rent. They are also paying $500/month to landlords if their tenants say they are losing money because of covid.  Standard rent is $1000 - $2000 / month.

I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.

Neither my wife nor myself get any free covid money but we expect to pay more taxes soon.

Hmm..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 26, 2020, 04:15:55 pm
imo - is that a picture money going into a fireplace? I'm not well versed on my German history.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 04:20:55 pm
Yes.
Quote
A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923.
By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.
There were 50 trillion Marks banknotes used in groceries to pay..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 04:25:08 pm
this 101 years old boy now is immune to SARS-CoV-2  :)

https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fbologna.repubblica.it%2Fcronaca%2F2020%2F03%2F26%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_guarisce_a_101_anni-252361069%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I252189793-C12-P18-S11.4-T1 (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fbologna.repubblica.it%2Fcronaca%2F2020%2F03%2F26%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_guarisce_a_101_anni-252361069%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I252189793-C12-P18-S11.4-T1)

I'm happy he survived that.
I remember there has been another 101 years old chinese man who fully recovered a while ago.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 26, 2020, 04:39:05 pm
this 101 years old boy now is immune to SARS-CoV-2  :)

https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fbologna.repubblica.it%2Fcronaca%2F2020%2F03%2F26%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_guarisce_a_101_anni-252361069%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I252189793-C12-P18-S11.4-T1 (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fbologna.repubblica.it%2Fcronaca%2F2020%2F03%2F26%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_guarisce_a_101_anni-252361069%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I252189793-C12-P18-S11.4-T1)

I'm happy he survived that.
I remember there has been another 101 years old chinese man who fully recovered a while ago.
Well good for him. It's a bit off-topic, but I wonder if the previous swine flu pandemic wasn't as bad, as it could've been because the virus was a strain of H1N1 which occurred back in 1918 and many of the old people either lived through, it as young children, or acquired immunity as babies suckling at their mothers' breasts?

Canadian govt has planned to give extra money to everyone with moderate to low income with kids and $2000 / month for 4 months to people who are out of work because of covid.

BC, Canada govt made new rule that tenants cant be evicted for not paying rent. They are also paying $500/month to landlords if their tenants say they are losing money because of covid.  Standard rent is $1000 - $2000 / month.

I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.

Neither my wife nor myself get any free covid money but we expect to pay more taxes soon.
Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 04:44:01 pm
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.
Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.

Hmm, let's see if Kasper can give more info, but don't get all worked up. Said neighbours may have had a small party between themselves without inviting anyone not living in their house. In this case, it's not going to spread anything more.

Zen. ::)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 26, 2020, 04:52:11 pm
Yes.
Quote
A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923.
By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.
There were 50 trillion Marks banknotes used in groceries to pay..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

Ouch.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 05:03:14 pm
Yes.
Quote
A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923.
By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.
There were 50 trillion Marks banknotes used in groceries to pay..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

Ouch.

G20 countries to inject 5 Trillion USD into the economy..  [CNN]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 05:06:31 pm
G20 countries to inject 5 Trillion USD into the economy..  [CNN]

Sure. Void money.

Anyway... some people were apparently claiming that Covid-19 crisis would have only a minor impact on economy.
A 5-trillion USD minor impact. That's almost pocket money indeed. :horse:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Deni on March 26, 2020, 05:08:31 pm
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

OK, perhpas he is, perhaps he is not - the same applies to all of us. But there was another link which, unfortunately, is pure data - no opinion. As you obviously missed it, here it is again:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)

It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 26, 2020, 05:14:26 pm
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.
Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.

Hmm, let's see if Kasper can give more info, but don't get all worked up. Said neighbours may have had a small party between themselves without inviting anyone not living in their house. In this case, it's not going to spread anything more.

Zen. ::)

Hope is good in a time like this, that's why I included 'small' when I described their party.  Just a few visitors was my guess.  I was more focused on them being outside drinking, making noise all day.

I think some people have made it their lifetime goal to do as little work as possible and I fear they believe spreading covid will help them accomplish that goal.  I don't think many people would be so callous but I have seen a lot of justifications for people not doing their best.  Everything from, "flu kills more and no one cares about that so why should I care about this", to "suicide kills 800,000 and covid will only kill 80,000 and if I don't socialize, I'll kill myself so my therapist said it's ok to socialize and their ex is a surgeon", to "it only affects old people so why do I have to isolate, they should isolate".  These are the same people that complain their welfare doesn't pay well enough.  I try to be understanding, times are tough, people are trying to cope but some of this is just maddening and the govt giving extra money to people who seem to contribute the least is annoying.  That being said, I am glad they are giving money directly to people instead of giving it to banks and saying (falsely) it will trickle down.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 05:25:11 pm
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.
Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.

Hmm, let's see if Kasper can give more info, but don't get all worked up. Said neighbours may have had a small party between themselves without inviting anyone not living in their house. In this case, it's not going to spread anything more.

Zen. ::)

Hope is good in a time like this, that's why I included 'small' when I described their party.  Just a few visitors was my guess.  I was more focused on them being outside drinking, making noise all day.

Ouch. If there was any visitor, then it's definitely bad. :--
Was being too optimistic here maybe.

I think some people have made it their lifetime goal to do as little work as possible and I fear they believe spreading covid will help them accomplish that goal.

There's a line between people happy to get some help in hard times, and people actively celebrating, or even making worse, a crisis that they think will help them become parasites.
I was again thinking of the former case - I hope I was more right than you are here, otherwise we're in big trouble...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 05:25:45 pm
G20 countries to inject 5 Trillion USD into the economy..  [CNN]

Sure. Void money.

Anyway... some people were apparently claiming that Covid-19 crisis would have only a minor impact on economy.
A 5-trillion USD minor impact. That's almost pocket money indeed. :horse:

5 trillion USD is not a big number world-wide actually (25% US GDP afaik), the problem is those money are from large part not covered by production - they are going to "print out banknotes".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 26, 2020, 05:27:19 pm
There's a line between people happy to get some help in hard times, and people actively celebrating, or even making worse, a crisis that they think will help them become parasites.
I was again thinking of the former case - I hope I was more right than you are here, otherwise we're in big trouble...

To be clear, I said I fear it and I don't think many people would do it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 26, 2020, 05:36:46 pm
It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?

1) The week's delay is significant; shit started to really hit the fan in Europe just approximately a week ago. Look back at that monitor site in about two months from now.

2) The strong actions (finally) taken are very likely to help reduce the death toll. This argument is discussed to death, but here it goes: if you don't do anything, a lot of people die. If you do, and manage to prevent a lot of death, then you can't prove anymore that a lot of people would have been dead, so the argument that "everybody freaked out for no reason" will continue to live forever. This is stupid, as there is a lot of actual expert analysis on the severity of the virus - and the fact that practically all governments around the world except Sweden agree with said experts.

It appears, Sweden is currently the only nation in the world running this human experiment, but it is very likely to change, as well, likely in a few days from now. So finally, no one can really say how many would have died if no actions (or very small actions) would have been taken, because finally everyone are taking strong actions, believing they are limiting the death toll - and most likely, they are absolutely correct about it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 05:47:42 pm
(...) because finally everyone are taking strong actions, believing they are limiting the death toll - and most likely, they are absolutely correct about it.

I don't think anyone can deny the effectiveness of confinement. It sure is a sudden and big disruption in both people's daily life and economy, but since virus spread is through human contact, I can't see how it would be possible that drastically limiting contacts would not drastically limit the spread.

Other actions, such as mass testing (when possible - which is currently not in most of Europe) are more debated, but I do think knowing is always better than not knowing to make the best decisions.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 26, 2020, 05:47:43 pm
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....
can't you do that online?
Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   ::)
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same..  :scared:

   No, the New Yorkers all all fleeing New York like rats leaving a sinking ship. A week ago there was only about 3 flights per day from New York to Florida but few days ago there were 196 flights. the number of people fleeing New York to go to Florida is increasing even faster than the virus. Do the math, 196 flights per day x an average of 250 passengers per flight.  The Florida governor is mad as hell about the number of untested people arriving here and has been trying to get the president to stop the flights but the airlines want the revenue and Trump is going to give them what they want. The airlines are going to ensure that the entire country is thoroughly infected but they'll have their blood money, er, revenue.

   BTW I just looked at the numbers in the bailout bill that the US Congress just passed. Big Business, mostly the airlines, are getting a $500million bailout but the hospitals are only getting $100million.  :--
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 26, 2020, 05:56:12 pm
I don't think anyone can deny the effectiveness of confinement. It sure is a sudden and big disruption in both people's daily life and economy, but since virus spread is through human contact, I can't see how it would be possible that drastically limiting contacts would not drastically limit the spread.

For you or me, or 99% of EEVblog forum participants, this is blatantly obvious. In large general public however, there are significant percentages of people who

1) Suffer from a mental block or a psychological condition of not being able to think rationally at all in such case. It's their defence mechanism,
2) Narcissist psychopaths who simply don't give a shit about the others,
3) Simply people who are too stupid to understand, stupid not being used here as a way to belittle, but as an actual description of their cognitive skills required to reach the conclusion you or I reach.

A certain amount of such people are going to repeat the mantra about how every government overreacted, no matter how bad the outcome is. The better the outcome is (by strong actions), the larger this group will be, I guess. This limits the government's response: they fear that what if they seem to "overreact", they lose their voter base. They want to actually see with their own eyes that yes, the experts are right.

Needless to say, enforcing the actions by the police/military are only needed because of these groups of people. This is why the Finnish strategy, "we only give suggestions and trust people follow them" is a catastrophe. Luckily, it seems this strategy is changing today: for the first time, we will have an actual restriction enforced by the police and military starting from tomorrow (the isolation of the hotspot capital city area).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 26, 2020, 06:00:08 pm
If the UK does come out less scythed than other countries it will be parroted as the government did the right thing when in reality we just had the benefit of hindsight from other countries and and even stuffing that up acting a week late were a week ahead but with milder measures. We will see what today's numbers are but with limited testing we don't know the truth but current trends have not been rocketing with rates staying the same for a few days before increasing but the data is poor in my opinion and it's telling that they announce it as late as possible in the day.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 06:01:40 pm
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

OK, perhpas he is, perhaps he is not - the same applies to all of us. But there was another link which, unfortunately, is pure data - no opinion. As you obviously missed it, here it is again:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)

It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?

life expectancy usually constantly increases a bit, but:

Quote
Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.

both data and other countries still lag behind
you have not realized yet that we are just still at the BEGINNING !!!
Italy luckily is on the right trend, but it will take yet a few more weeks to achieve a significant reduction both of new cases and deaths. Other countries are still climbing uphill at a fast pace.
Tomorrow US will become the first country in the world for cases figure (later for deaths).
During next week unfortunately other countries will get above Italy in this macabre rank.
Nothing to be happy about  :'(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 06:05:23 pm
..   No, the New Yorkers all all fleeing New York like rats leaving a sinking ship.
White House calls for everybody leaving NY should go into 14 days quarantine, afaik.. :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 06:11:24 pm
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....
can't you do that online?
Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   ::)
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same..  :scared:

   No, the New Yorkers all all fleeing New York like rats leaving a sinking ship. A week ago there was only about 3 flights per day from New York to Florida but few days ago there were 196 flights. the number of people fleeing New York to go to Florida is increasing even faster than the virus. Do the math, 196 flights per day x an average of 250 passengers per flight.  The Florida governor is mad as hell about the number of untested people arriving here and has been trying to get the president to stop the flights but the airlines want the revenue and Trump is going to give them what they want. The airlines are going to ensure that the entire country is thoroughly infected but they'll have their blood money, er, revenue.

   BTW I just looked at the numbers in the bailout bill that the US Congress just passed. Big Business, mostly the airlines, are getting a $500million bailout but the hospitals are only getting $100million.  :--

Your concern should be directed to gov. Cuomo. Those numbers are Billions, not millions. Only 25B is for passenger airlines though with the same again available as loans for salaries, the 500B is mostly for loans to other businesses to stay in business and avoid firing people. Hospitals/staff get about 117B significantly MORE. Significant money for a multitude of other things but really pay attention to what's happening. We don't need people getting upset over perceived grievances that just aren't real. I'm more annoyed by them approving 25M for the politicians who still haven't even passed the bill. They say politicians and their families can't get money, but then make sure they get money. I'll add in researching some people are apparently mistaking that money as a raise and it's not. Not sure why people would assume it was.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/stimulus-package-details-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/stimulus-package-details-coronavirus/index.html)

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/whats-in-stimulus-package-coronavirus-149282 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/whats-in-stimulus-package-coronavirus-149282)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 06:15:11 pm
Needless to say, enforcing the actions by the police/military are only needed because of these groups of people. This is why the Finnish strategy, "we only give suggestions and trust people follow them" is a catastrophe.

I don't know a lot about Finland, but a bit about nordic countries in general, and I would have expected people there to be a lot more well behaved than this. But maybe it's just a small fraction of all people (but in that case, that would not be as significant a problem as it is?) Or maybe the Finnish are just obnoxious? Or something. :P

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 06:17:45 pm
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 26, 2020, 06:19:21 pm
Is there anywhere that shows data day to day country by country?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 06:21:40 pm
Is there anywhere that shows data day to day country by country?

Several, put that yesterday already: https://virusncov.com/
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 26, 2020, 06:52:05 pm
Needless to say, enforcing the actions by the police/military are only needed because of these groups of people. This is why the Finnish strategy, "we only give suggestions and trust people follow them" is a catastrophe.

I don't know a lot about Finland, but a bit about nordic countries in general, and I would have expected people there to be a lot more well behaved than this. But maybe it's just a small fraction of all people (but in that case, that would not be as significant a problem as it is?) Or maybe the Finnish are just obnoxious? Or something. :P

Finns are likely to protest somewhat less than what Italians did at the beginning, but many do protest here, like everywhere. So the difference isn't an order of magnitude thing, I think we are quite average here when it comes to being selfish at the expense of others. I think you need to look at certain Asian cultures to see a big difference in this behavior. Though, this being said, even these countries (and they especially!) rely on actually enforcing the rules by the fear of actual sanctions, even if they "might" not need it. Funny thing, isn't it?

"Losing face" is a big thing in some Asian cultures, and it works to some extent here, as well. But this can go both ways; at the early phase of this kind of epidemic, certain social bubbles form, and one of them is the "lallallaa overreaction, I don't want to show I'm scared, not overreacting, lallallaa". So in order not to lose face, you need to pretend living like usual. I think this happens everywhere in Europe to some non-meaningless extent, including Finland; just wittnessed today a few middle-aged guys at a store loudly protesting how stupid this overreaction is because "we have only one dead" (the correct number at that time was 3, as corrected by the cashier, and currently is 5). These people existing is the reason why we need to enforce the rules.

Actually we had some opinion poll numbers how the people here see the actions of the government. I forgot the source, but they were approximately like this: 45% thinks they underreact, 45% thinks they react in the correct proportion at the correct time; 10% thinks they overreact. It's this 10% of people who are dangerous as is and need to be actually enforced with sanctions. 0.1% wouldn't matter; 10% does.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 06:54:46 pm
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

yes... the reason is yet unclear...probably a combination of:
- being several weeks ahead in the pandemic,
- overcrowded hospitals in some parts of the country,
- using a different criteria for attributing deaths to COVID-19,
- missing lots of positive cases,
- bad air quality,
- old age,
- lacking of D vitamin (just read about that a couple of hours ago), etc.

BTW I just noticed that both Spain and France have alarming high rates too
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 26, 2020, 07:08:47 pm
Actually we had some opinion poll numbers how the people here see the actions of the government. I forgot the source, but they were approximately like this: 45% thinks they underreact, 45% thinks they react in the correct proportion at the correct time; 10% thinks they overreact. It's this 10% of people who are dangerous as is and need to be actually enforced with sanctions. 0.1% wouldn't matter; 10% does.

Ok I see...

Now with (from what I've just seen) 958 cases and 5 deaths, things don't look that bad for Finland so far. Don't get me wrong, I'm not underestimating this, and I agree anything should be done to keep this under control, but from figures alone, I can at least slightly understand why some people there would still think it's relatively "mild".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TheNewLab on March 26, 2020, 07:10:30 pm
at over 1400 postings in this topic in only a short number of days..

I guess I may share what Reuters came up with more detailed numbers. Some are estimates, Others are in my mind humorous, yet good.

I have not tallied what the sum of Reuters numbers are. Anyone else may do that.

The biggest concern are enough beds in hospitals, adequate resuscitators, adequate PPE for health care works. YT search "Italy" filter "this week" or "this month" You will find a number of videos from Italian healthcare workers.

Here are the Reuters numbers:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-bill-contents-idUSKBN21D2CQ (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-bill-contents-idUSKBN21D2CQ)

In a way I want to say "just chill out" However, Some fear may be healthy. most of what is suggested is good hygiene. Others, are simple to practice, except, er, uh..Not touching your face. That's the most difficult.

I feel, focusing on facts are best, as it is the unknown creates the greatest fear.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 26, 2020, 07:15:43 pm
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)   now has a deaths/1M pop column in their charts, saving you from doing the math. Italy and Spain are way ahead of everyone else by that measure.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on March 26, 2020, 07:24:21 pm
I guess it's somewhat futile to compare numbers or even ratios of different countries since it's unclear how many people are tested and how many infected/dead are actually reported.
Today the number of 410k totally tested was published in Germany, but at the same time our leading Corona expert claimed that 500k people would be tested per week while the number of a maximum of 160k tests per week was claimed only some days ago and now a number of up to 360k tests per week being possible was given by the public health insurance organization.
Anyway, the number of tested is very high in Germany, while I would assume it's rather low in countries like Iran. Actually, if I understand the numbers of the CDC correctly, even in the USA only around 100k tests were performed up to now. And of course it's highly questionable if illiberal states publish reliable numbers.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 07:40:11 pm
What is an illiberal state?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 0xdeadbeef on March 26, 2020, 07:46:08 pm
Guess that depends on your point of view. In my humble opinion, e.g. Russia would fall into this category among many other countries where there is no free press or independent jurisdiction.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Howardlong on March 26, 2020, 07:46:54 pm
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)   now has a deaths/1M pop column in their charts, saving you from doing the math. Italy and Spain are way ahead of everyone else by that measure.

Not sure I'd fancy my chances in San Marino at the moment tbh.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 26, 2020, 07:57:08 pm
Is there anywhere that shows data day to day country by country?
Wikipedia has a dedicated page (article?) per country where you can typically find daily graphs and number of infections per region / county.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 26, 2020, 08:08:41 pm
I guess it's somewhat futile to compare numbers or even ratios of different countries since it's unclear how many people are tested and how many infected/dead are actually reported.
Today the number of 410k totally tested was published in Germany, but at the same time our leading Corona expert claimed that 500k people would be tested per week while the number of a maximum of 160k tests per week was claimed only some days ago and now a number of up to 360k tests per week being possible was given by the public health insurance organization.
Anyway, the number of tested is very high in Germany, while I would assume it's rather low in countries like Iran. Actually, if I understand the numbers of the CDC correctly, even in the USA only around 100k tests were performed up to now. And of course it's highly questionable if illiberal states publish reliable numbers.

do not forget that tests are meaningless in the sense that people negative now might get infected 5 minutes later and that some people like health care staff have to be tested multiple times

so far in Italy 361,060 tests have been performed
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 26, 2020, 08:13:51 pm
I'm just thinking that ignoring differences in methods if you compare increase rates assuming they don't suddenly change the method like china did you can see how each country is doing relatively with the rate of increase in cases.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 26, 2020, 08:28:49 pm
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

In the UK it currently seems as though most people die from it.

Look at "Closed Cases"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 08:44:47 pm
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

In the UK it currently seems as though most people die from it.

Look at "Closed Cases"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/)

Haha, I'm sure that's skewed. If 81% is the mortality rate for the UK they might as well figure out which country is going to be expanding.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 08:48:01 pm
That 81% is from "Cases which had an outcome"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 26, 2020, 08:50:40 pm
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)   now has a deaths/1M pop column in their charts, saving you from doing the math. Italy and Spain are way ahead of everyone else by that measure.

Not sure I'd fancy my chances in San Marino at the moment tbh.

The San Marino numbers aren't hugely significant due to the small sample size of only 21 deaths among a total population of 33400. So far as the virus transmission is concerned prior to quarantine, it's a town-sized state literally surrounded by Italy and is suffering a similar fate.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 26, 2020, 08:55:45 pm
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

In the UK it currently seems as though most people die from it.

Look at "Closed Cases"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/)

That looks similar to the pattern Italy has shown. No test coverage in the general public, only people who feel really sick go to the hospital and get tested, many of them part of a high-risk group, who are now dying quickly. Wasn't the plan to protect granny and granddaddy first and foremost?.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Deni on March 26, 2020, 09:04:23 pm
The last patient that died here -> received in the hospital in poor condition, with cancer in terminal stage, no previous symptoms, not isolated, but out
of precaution tested for COVID,  found positive, dies afer an hour and is now counted as COVID victim. I mean, really  :palm: ? How many similar cases
are out there?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 09:10:08 pm
Probably a lot. That's the point, this is REALLY bad for people with other issues.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Deni on March 26, 2020, 09:15:32 pm
But the patient HAD NO SYMPTOMS, was just infected (as many of us most likely are, since various flu viruses are all around us) and died from cancer !
3 months ago nobody would count it as a COVID case. Bad data are worse that no data...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 26, 2020, 09:25:47 pm
Probably a lot. That's the point, this is REALLY bad for people with other issues.

Here is the latest report on Italy Death Cases as of March 24th.
The pre-existing conditions statistics is that "Patologie" and "Numero di patologie".
No need to translate, imho.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 26, 2020, 09:31:37 pm
My latest summary of the WHO March 26 report, hot off the presses. This is for the 8 countries with the most confirmed cases. I also included some info I didn't have before.

Attached chart of deaths to date and new deaths for the US shows deaths to date (884) in yellow, and new deaths each day in dark blue.

- US remains #3 in total confirmed cases to date.

- US remains #6 in total confirmed cases as a % of population.

- US moved up one spot in number of total deaths to date as a % of population (from #8 to #7)

- For the last 4 days US has had a flat rate of approx. 200 new deaths total per day, except for the 24th when it had only 69 (about the same as the 19th thru the 22nd when it was flat with around 40-50 each day).

 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 26, 2020, 09:34:33 pm
But the patient HAD NO SYMPTOMS, was just infected (as many of us most likely are, since various flu viruses are all around us) and died from cancer !
3 months ago nobody would count it as a COVID case. Bad data are worse that no data...

So WHAT does their actual death certificate actually say? Or is this just some third hand news story.

I've seen quite a few death certificates in my time and if someone has some known terminal condition that is always recorded, even when the proximal cause of death was something secondary. e.g something like "Pneumonia as a complication of stage 4 lung cancer".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 26, 2020, 09:48:11 pm
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

OK, perhpas he is, perhaps he is not - the same applies to all of us. But there was another link which, unfortunately, is pure data - no opinion. As you obviously missed it, here it is again:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)

It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?

There will be a statistically visible increase of the mortality soon e.g. in Italy and Spain and Dr. Wodargs house of cards will collapse.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 26, 2020, 10:12:21 pm
Coronavirus: Why some countries wear face masks and others don't
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52015486 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52015486)

Emphasis mine

Quote
Nobody else needs to wear a mask, and there are several reasons for that.
One is that a mask is not seen as reliable protection, given that current research shows the virus is spread by droplets and contact with contaminated surfaces. So it could protect you, but only in certain situations such as when you're in close quarters with others where someone infected might sneeze or cough near your face. This is why experts say frequent hand washing with soap and water is far more effective.
Removing a mask requires special attention to avoid hand contamination, and it could also breed a false sense of security.

Quote
Some argue that ubiquitous mask wearing, as a very visual reminder of the dangers of the virus, could actually act as a "behavioural nudge" to you and others for overall better personal hygiene.

Quote
Then, there's the idea that every little bit counts in the war the world is waging against the virus.
"We can't say if face masks are ineffective, but we presume they have some effect because that's the protection we give to healthcare workers," said Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist with Hong Kong University.

Quote
In countries where mask wearing is not the norm, such as the West, those who do wear masks have been shunned or even attacked. It hasn't helped that many of these mask wearers are Asians.
But those societies that do advocate everyone wearing a mask may have a point and increasingly, experts are now questioning the official WHO advice.


I am a powerful wizard and looking into my cystal ball I can foresee that the number of expert advocating using a mask to the general public will rise logarithmically with the number of masks produced.

Meanwhile, the US is now number one in number of infected - "America first!" remember?
And thanks to governors such as that of Mississippi is trying to do its best to ramp up in the number of deaths, as well:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 26, 2020, 10:20:19 pm
Video graph comparing countries.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-since-100th-case?time=0..65
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 26, 2020, 10:26:57 pm
The last patient that died here -> received in the hospital in poor condition, with cancer in terminal stage, no previous symptoms, not isolated, but out
of precaution tested for COVID,  found positive, dies afer an hour and is now counted as COVID victim. I mean, really  :palm: ? How many similar cases
are out there?

Not a lot is my guess.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 26, 2020, 10:28:57 pm
Trump has called this the Chinese Virus and there are calls in the US for it to be renamed the Wuhan Virus. I am 100% OK with that on one condition - that the world renames the 1919 Spanish Flu either the American Flu or Kansas Flu, which killed an estimated 40 million innocent people. Because Kansas is where the first case of the 1919 flu was reported, not Spain.

People in glass houses should not throw stones.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 10:38:46 pm
Ok, go ahead. I don't think anybody is all that worried about the Kansas flu. Luckily when I lived in Kansas I never got it. Usually looked like alcohol poisoning but the truth is easy to spot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 26, 2020, 10:49:44 pm
The last patient that died here -> received in the hospital in poor condition, with cancer in terminal stage, no previous symptoms, not isolated, but out
of precaution tested for COVID,  found positive, dies afer an hour and is now counted as COVID victim. I mean, really  :palm: ? How many similar cases
are out there?
OTOH in the NL doctors say that some deceased Covid-19 victims aren't counted because they wheren't tested for Corona but had several symptoms pointing towards being infected.

Meanwhile, the US is now number one in number of infected - "America first!" remember?
And thanks to governors such as that of Mississippi is trying to do its best to ramp up in the number of deaths, as well:
I'm getting the feeling the US is not going to try really hard to contain the Covid-19 virus from spreading in order to minimise the hit on the economy. Or put differently: it seems there just isn't enough money around to serve as a life boat for the economy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 26, 2020, 10:51:25 pm
It was already given a official name, nobody is going to rename it, so what is the point.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 26, 2020, 10:53:47 pm
My latest summary of the WHO March 26 report, hot off the presses. This is for the 8 countries with the most confirmed cases. I also included some info I didn't have before.

Attached chart of deaths to date and new deaths for the US shows deaths to date (884) in yellow, and new deaths each day in dark blue.

- US remains #3 in total confirmed cases to date.

- US remains #6 in total confirmed cases as a % of population.

- US moved up one spot in number of total deaths to date as a % of population (from #8 to #7)

- For the last 4 days US has had a flat rate of approx. 200 new deaths total per day, except for the 24th when it had only 69 (about the same as the 19th thru the 22nd when it was flat with around 40-50 each day).

 

The conspicuous absence of Germany on that list seemed odd since I knw it had more cases than Iran, France, The Netherlands or the UK, so I took a closer look at the WHO report for that date: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2 (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2)
The numbers match for the countries listed, but it's now obvious to me that you misinterpreted what the 2nd chart is. And fooled yourself into drawing the wrong conclusions.
The chart is actually the 8 countries with the most confirmed deaths, which is a different subset of countries than confirmed cases.

With either subset of countries, it's misleading to state deaths by % of population at all, unless that's also the criteria selecting the subset of countries you're looking at. For instance, if you look at the entire list, while the US is obviously on the rise, there are quite a few countries ahead of it when sorted by % deaths/population.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 26, 2020, 11:05:15 pm
The last patient that died here -> received in the hospital in poor condition, with cancer in terminal stage, no previous symptoms, not isolated, but out
of precaution tested for COVID,  found positive, dies afer an hour and is now counted as COVID victim. I mean, really  :palm: ? How many similar cases
are out there?
OTOH in the NL doctors say that some deceased Covid-19 victims aren't counted because they wheren't tested for Corona but had several symptoms pointing towards being infected.

Meanwhile, the US is now number one in number of infected - "America first!" remember?
And thanks to governors such as that of Mississippi is trying to do its best to ramp up in the number of deaths, as well:
I'm getting the feeling the US is not going to try really hard to contain the Covid-19 virus from spreading in order to minimise the hit on the economy. Or put differently: it seems there just isn't enough money around to serve as a life boat for the economy.

It seems clear we won't know the real extent, we'll have the data we have and if there are errors due to reporting done differently then there may not be much to do about it since the bodies probably won't be dug back up, especially considering the sheer numbers.

As for the US it really depends. Each state is handling it the way they think is best. It's unlikely the federal government will be able to enforce anything since we don't have the manpower to do so. Each state is relying on the others to do the right thing. Sort of like the EU, each member is doing what they think is right.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 26, 2020, 11:54:44 pm
My latest summary of the WHO March 26 report, hot off the presses. This is for the 8 countries with the most confirmed cases. I also included some info I didn't have before.

Attached chart of deaths to date and new deaths for the US shows deaths to date (884) in yellow, and new deaths each day in dark blue.

- US remains #3 in total confirmed cases to date.

- US remains #6 in total confirmed cases as a % of population.

- US moved up one spot in number of total deaths to date as a % of population (from #8 to #7)

- For the last 4 days US has had a flat rate of approx. 200 new deaths total per day, except for the 24th when it had only 69 (about the same as the 19th thru the 22nd when it was flat with around 40-50 each day).

 

The conspicuous absence of Germany on that list seemed odd since I knw it had more cases than Iran, France, The Netherlands or the UK, so I took a closer look at the WHO report for that date: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2 (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2)
The numbers match for the countries listed, but it's now obvious to me that you misinterpreted what the 2nd chart is. And fooled yourself into drawing the wrong conclusions.
The chart is actually the 8 countries with the most confirmed deaths, which is a different subset of countries than confirmed cases.

With either subset of countries, it's misleading to state deaths by % of population at all, unless that's also the criteria selecting the subset of countries you're looking at. For instance, if you look at the entire list, while the US is obviously on the rise, there are quite a few countries ahead of it when sorted by % deaths/population.

Yes, I missed Germany. Thanks. So I provide a bunch of data, and you are all free to add any missing data.

As far as "misinterpreting" and "fooling myself" and all the other wonderful stuff you said, let me suggest you tap the brakes a bit. I, unlike most others here, am trying to provide actual data, rather than drone on and on with irrelevant handwaving and ridiculous and irrelevant pseudo-facts solely to make themselves sound smart.

If you don't like the format or the conclusions, then I'm sure you are intelligent enough to draw your own conclusions. I don't owe you anything.

And perhaps even a mumbled "thanks for the info" might be more appropriate don't you think?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 26, 2020, 11:56:44 pm
Is that an Arduino?

Yes, it is. Let us sincerely hope that the people playing with it are a step or two beyond relying on the Arduino's own software ecosystem.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 12:09:50 am
My latest summary of the WHO March 26 report, hot off the presses. This is for the 8 countries with the most confirmed cases. I also included some info I didn't have before.

Attached chart of deaths to date and new deaths for the US shows deaths to date (884) in yellow, and new deaths each day in dark blue.

- US remains #3 in total confirmed cases to date.

- US remains #6 in total confirmed cases as a % of population.

- US moved up one spot in number of total deaths to date as a % of population (from #8 to #7)

- For the last 4 days US has had a flat rate of approx. 200 new deaths total per day, except for the 24th when it had only 69 (about the same as the 19th thru the 22nd when it was flat with around 40-50 each day).

 

The conspicuous absence of Germany on that list seemed odd since I knw it had more cases than Iran, France, The Netherlands or the UK, so I took a closer look at the WHO report for that date: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2 (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2)
The numbers match for the countries listed, but it's now obvious to me that you misinterpreted what the 2nd chart is. And fooled yourself into drawing the wrong conclusions.
The chart is actually the 8 countries with the most confirmed deaths, which is a different subset of countries than confirmed cases.

With either subset of countries, it's misleading to state deaths by % of population at all, unless that's also the criteria selecting the subset of countries you're looking at. For instance, if you look at the entire list, while the US is obviously on the rise, there are quite a few countries ahead of it when sorted by % deaths/population.

Yes, I missed Germany. Thanks. So I provide a bunch of data, and you are all free to add any missing data.

As far as "misinterpreting" and "fooling myself" and all the other wonderful stuff you said, let me suggest you tap the brakes a bit. I, unlike most others here, am trying to provide actual data, rather than drone on and on with irrelevant handwaving and ridiculous and irrelevant pseudo-facts solely to make themselves sound smart.

If you don't like the format or the conclusions, then I'm sure you are intelligent enough to draw your own conclusions. I don't owe you anything.

And perhaps even a mumbled "thanks for the info" might be more appropriate don't you think?

I really don't see anything in those comments that justifies you taking such a "chip on the shoulder" attitude to nusa and others. Perhaps you should be the one "tapping the brakes". If you want somewhere you can speak ex cathedra and expect applause for it, this isn't it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Pluscrafter on March 27, 2020, 12:32:20 am
What do you think about the situation in Switzerland and that they mobilises the army(up to 8000, yet 3000) for that reason. Also with the situation Switzerland is in some cases a centralized statethe rather than a federation. In my opinion the executives do a really good job. And there wasn't any speech from the Bundesratpräsident, like "we have a war against the virus" and they explain the next steps what and why the want to execute this rule. Luckily I can send my friend packages(only up to 5 Kg) without fee into the army so he gets enought chocolate.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 27, 2020, 12:45:58 am
I really don't see anything in those comments that justifies you taking such a "chip on the shoulder" attitude to nusa and others. Perhaps you should be the one "tapping the brakes". If you want somewhere you can speak ex cathedra and expect applause for it, this isn't it.
At first I was convinced a few people here are just stirring the pot, but now I'm wondering whether the situation is getting to them. It must be rough when your feelings aren't mirrored by the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 27, 2020, 02:39:56 am

I'm getting the feeling the US is not going to try really hard to contain the Covid-19 virus from spreading in order to minimise the hit on the economy. Or put differently: it seems there just isn't enough money around to serve as a life boat for the economy.

   Unfortunately you might be right about that. It certainly doesn't appear that they've made much of an effort to contain it. More than a few in this forum have been calling for exactly that and in addition, the US government just spend a third of their annual budget today on give away programs to keep the peasants from revolting. And to top it all off they've also promised all sorts of tax exemptions so the tax revenue will be less than usual. 

   I'm seriously thinking that I should go out and get the virus now while there's still a chance that I'll get treated at a functioning hospital.

   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 27, 2020, 02:47:16 am

I'm getting the feeling the US is not going to try really hard to contain the Covid-19 virus from spreading in order to minimise the hit on the economy. Or put differently: it seems there just isn't enough money around to serve as a life boat for the economy.

   Unfortunately you might be right about that. It certainly doesn't appear that they've made much of an effort to contain it. More than a few in this forum have been calling for exactly that and in addition, the US government just spend a third of their annual budget today on give away programs to keep the peasants from revolting. And to top it all off they've also promised all sorts of tax exemptions so the tax revenue will be less than usual. 

   I'm seriously thinking that I should go out and get the virus now while there's still a chance that I'll get treated at a functioning hospital.

 

If I weren't in bad shape now and high risk anyway I'd feel the same way.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on March 27, 2020, 02:49:21 am
  I'm considered high risk too but I still like my chances are better now than they will be in a couple of weeks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 27, 2020, 04:06:43 am
Man, it is surreal that we are living in time that makes people wish that kind of things...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 27, 2020, 04:17:16 am
Meanwhile in South Africa...

Quote
Attempted murder charge
As a warning shot to anyone thinking defying the order, police on Wednesday revealed that a businessman had been arrested for disobeying a doctor's instruction to self-quarantine for 14 days.

The 52-year-old was detained in hospital, and charged with attempted murder for endangering the lives of almost 30 people he had interacted with subsequent to the doctor's instruction, police said.

"Attempted murder", no less than...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 27, 2020, 06:39:13 am
Meanwhile in South Africa...

Quote
Attempted murder charge
As a warning shot to anyone thinking defying the order, police on Wednesday revealed that a businessman had been arrested for disobeying a doctor's instruction to self-quarantine for 14 days.

The 52-year-old was detained in hospital, and charged with attempted murder for endangering the lives of almost 30 people he had interacted with subsequent to the doctor's instruction, police said.

"Attempted murder", no less than...

That is pretty tough. If it were South Africa here, the NSW Health Minister could be charged with mass manslaughter.

The 2,700 passengers on the Ruby Princess Cruise ship were recently allowed to disembark in Sydney without being quarantined, tested or even bring told that there were passengers on board who showed the symptoms. The passengers were told FOUR days by the bungling government they have to quarantine. At least 150 of the passengers now have the virus and who knows how many others they have infected. One has died already.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 27, 2020, 06:57:51 am
162 tested positive from the Ruby Princess.. and counting :palm:.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 27, 2020, 07:30:57 am
Quote
I really don't see anything in those comments that justifies you ...

Whereas I did quite easily.

Perhaps the better way to comment would have been to ask which bit he took exception to rather than just saying he's wrong and compounding the issue? :)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 27, 2020, 07:44:57 am
   I'm seriously thinking that I should go out and get the virus now while there's still a chance that I'll get treated at a functioning hospital.

that's playing Russian roulette
even young and healthy people are dying all around the world
now in Italy we have a 18 years old boy in ICU (induced coma)
yesterday somebody wrote here about a 21 years old girl in UK
China showed what is the best strategy and while your country might ignore that you'd better comply with that as much as you can.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 27, 2020, 08:02:06 am
  I'm considered high risk too but I still like my chances are better now than they will be in a couple of weeks.

People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 27, 2020, 08:38:31 am
Quote
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder

Just a week ago that was essentially the UK's plan (have people catch it, not the charging bit), albeit in a limited random way. Amazing how quickly the situation changes, and how long ago a short time seems!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 27, 2020, 08:42:17 am
Quote
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder

Just a week ago that was essentially the UK's plan (have people catch it, not the charging bit), albeit in a limited random way. Amazing how quickly the situation changes, and how long ago a short time seems!

Source?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 27, 2020, 09:00:28 am
  I'm considered high risk too but I still like my chances are better now than they will be in a couple of weeks.

People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!

I think there are 4 different cases:
1) deliberate spreaders and those should be treated as mass muders
2) people who think they can immunize themselves and then burden the health system with their case, really bad, but not terrorism
3) people who immunize themselves accepting all the risks restraining themselves from recurring to the hospital later
4) volunteer in one of those early vaccine test programs becoming an hero rather than a terrorist
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 27, 2020, 09:05:40 am
Quote
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder

Just a week ago that was essentially the UK's plan (have people catch it, not the charging bit), albeit in a limited random way. Amazing how quickly the situation changes, and how long ago a short time seems!

Source?

Mr Boris ? The times even wrote he was a hero, a Churchill or a Fabio Massimo of our epoch  :palm:
instead I always thought he was just an asshole playing Dr. Mengele   >:D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 27, 2020, 09:10:46 am
Quote
Source?

Boris: 'Herd immunity'.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 27, 2020, 09:22:09 am
Fair enough, i didn't start watching the news about this until about a week ago.

I thought the hurd immunity thing was debunked as only a fleating suggestion, but reviewing the news from that time it seems he was actually serious until people pointed out just how many critical patients there would be.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 27, 2020, 09:45:09 am
https://news.expats.cz/coronavirus-in-the-czech-republic/experimental-drug-remdesivir-administered-to-first-czech-coronavirus-patient/

The patient's condition "improved significantly", he has been detached from the artificial blood circulation system [Czech TV today]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 27, 2020, 11:22:59 am
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11964493
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: StillTrying on March 27, 2020, 11:37:04 am
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.

It's the first time he's done anything with a positive result.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 27, 2020, 11:53:06 am
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11964493
I'm more worried about his mum. It was Mother's day Sunday last week in the UK. He told everyone to stay at home and not to see their mothers, if they can avoid it, but he seemed to imply he was going to see his mum anyway! I hope she's okay!

Politicians are a high risk group, probably just as much so or even more than medical staff, because they travel lots, meet many people and will not be taking the same precautions as doctors and nurses.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Denby on March 27, 2020, 12:05:10 pm
I wonder how's he doing his job while sick and isolated?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 27, 2020, 12:46:03 pm
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.

It's the first time he's done anything with a positive result.

Now, now.  I wouldn't wish this on anyone except Trump.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 27, 2020, 01:00:42 pm
Quote
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder

Just a week ago that was essentially the UK's plan (have people catch it, not the charging bit), albeit in a limited random way. Amazing how quickly the situation changes, and how long ago a short time seems!

Source?

The news? I watched a so called expert from the tropical medicine college in london advising the gov on channel 4 talking about herd immunity and how we would just get it gradually and all would be well while a programmer that had accurately modeled what would happen cradled his head in his hands in despair.

2 Days later the gov did what the programmer was advising is a massive U turn in everything but name!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 27, 2020, 01:10:38 pm
Now with (from what I've just seen) 958 cases and 5 deaths, things don't look that bad for Finland so far. Don't get me wrong, I'm not underestimating this, and I agree anything should be done to keep this under control, but from figures alone, I can at least slightly understand why some people there would still think it's relatively "mild".

It's just coming with a delay compared to south/middle European nations. The growth rate is approximately as bad as it was in Italy or Spain. (You need to multiply the Finnish numbers by 12 to compare with Italy, adjusting for the 5M versus 60M people.) - We are approximately 20 days behind Italy.

We had some 200 000 Finnish tourists (4% of the population!!), large part from Italy and Spain, come back home, completely bypassing quarantine procedures, any medical control, and without even getting proper information about the necessity of self-quarantine. The problem is, practically every plane have had at least one infected; then they went in full buses back home all over the country, visiting restaurants on the way. The media is now, correctly, looking for the responsible for this fiasco; and the government was just caught pants down lying to us that this was just an "information disconnect", while some documents leaked, showing the ministry of health actually preventing a planned operation by the local healthcare authorities. This is a huge reveal here right now.

Most of these people have came back during last two or three weeks, and are still coming.

The total failure of medical control has been discussed in media and by the politicians for over two weeks now, still the same mistakes continuing were reported still two days ago. Now it seems the leak has been fixed, and the control is working much better, but it took way too long.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 27, 2020, 01:34:10 pm
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.

It's the first time he's done anything with a positive result.

Many thanks to his idiot dad

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8120975/amp/Boris-Johnsons-father-Stanley-vows-IGNORE-sons-official-government-advice.html (https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8120975/amp/Boris-Johnsons-father-Stanley-vows-IGNORE-sons-official-government-advice.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 27, 2020, 01:46:02 pm
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!
Why?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 27, 2020, 01:49:51 pm
I wonder till when people and media will be ready to watch and comment the counters with "Confirmed". The main counter (551k today) will "finish" at around 10% of Earth's population. It may take till Xmas when all successful with "flattening the curve".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 27, 2020, 02:28:10 pm
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!
Why?
As long as they don't infect anyone else, I don't see the problem.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 27, 2020, 02:31:24 pm
I wonder till when people and media will be ready to watch and comment the counters with "Confirmed". The main counter (551k today) will "finish" at around 10% of Earth's population. It may take till Xmas when all successful with "flattening the curve".

Unless the world population has suddenly dropped to 5.5 million somehow, you might want to check your math.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 27, 2020, 03:09:20 pm
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!
Why?
As long as they don't infect anyone else, I don't see the problem.

Clearly you don't.  Go snort a few door handles and in a week or so, send us a few IMs from the queue for an ICU bed if you end up needing one.  When you get that bed, make sure and ask how many people died in the queue outside while you had it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 27, 2020, 03:20:02 pm
In BC, Canada we have group(s) ready to make the tough decisions (which of these people gets that ventilator) so the front line healthcare workers don't have to.

I think a live stream of that group would be a good way to convince people to try harder. I wonder if they'd wear executioner masks.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 27, 2020, 03:30:16 pm
Politicians are a high risk group, probably just as much so or even more than medical staff, because they travel lots, meet many people and will not be taking the same precautions as doctors and nurses.

Of course! It should not come as a surprise that a significant number of them will be tested positive.

And for some (not you here, you refrained!), please cut the politics. Won't help the matter in any way.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 27, 2020, 03:34:12 pm
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!
Why?
As long as they don't infect anyone else, I don't see the problem.

Clearly you don't.  Go snort a few door handles and in a week or so, send us a few IMs from the queue for an ICU bed if you end up needing one.  When you get that bed, make sure and ask how many people died in the queue outside while you had it.

Probably fewer than if it happened anyway in a couple weeks. For me I could stay inside forever with my kids. However my wife can't, she's got to go back to work. Since I'm in the high risk of severe outcomes I may be one of the people who dies when there aren't enough beds. I'm sure you don't care but my wife and kids would. The only good thing is they're young enough they'd forget about me in a few years.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 03:43:25 pm
Quote
I really don't see anything in those comments that justifies you ...

Whereas I did quite easily.

Perhaps the better way to comment would have been to ask which bit he took exception to rather than just saying he's wrong and compounding the issue? :)

In this case it's not the individual facts so there's nothing to pick out; it's the tone of the whole thing. We need more light and less heat, by all means challenge people's facts or reasoning but general swipes at people because you don't like them, or what they have to say, aren't helpful. This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion. You've just managed to challenge one of my comments politely and without any personal attacks, I'm just asking that he does the same.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 04:08:15 pm
  I'm considered high risk too but I still like my chances are better now than they will be in a couple of weeks.

People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!

What should be the penalty for advocating torture to death which is essentially what you're doing?

I can quite understand the attitude of someone who thinks that their personal risk profile for this disease is low and wants to get it over with. Sitting around waiting for this is like seeing the Sword of Damocles  dangling over your head or waiting in the dentist's chair for the bastard to get on with it and actually pull that tooth. I'm in a high risk group, I'm 60 and I have asthma - this disease is literately an existential threat to me - but even I can feel some of that desire to "have it done and over with". Just because someone expresses that does not mean that they have a longing to catch it and become a Typhoid Mary spreading it about left right and centre or behave in any other way irresponsibly. Someone expressing their thoughts and fears is not an acceptable reason for advocating burning people to death.

Perhaps we should ship a small field hospital and some instant barracks to Gruinard Island and let folks like Maginnovision and Stray Electron go to the 'leper colony' thus created to deliberately catch it, on the understanding that, once recovered, they have to come back and volunteer for the jobs that need doing by people with immunity for a set period of time as payment for the dubious privilege of being allowed to deliberately catch it while offering safety to others from their infected selves.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 27, 2020, 04:11:15 pm
[...]  This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion.  [...]

Welcome to the Internet!    ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 04:20:50 pm
Fair enough, i didn't start watching the news about this until about a week ago.

I thought the hurd immunity thing was debunked as only a fleating suggestion, but reviewing the news from that time it seems he was actually serious until people pointed out just how many critical patients there would be.

Herd immunity, not hurd immunity. It's a real thing, a recognised epidemiological phenomenon and ultimately it will be the thing that defeats this epidemic, whether it's herd immunity induced by vaccination or herd immunity induced by the natural course of the disease without vaccination. The problem with the latter is that it will leave a lot of bodies in its wake, the former hopefully not.

It's worth noting that all the delay in creating a vaccine is not the basic 'make a vaccine' bit - candidate vaccines exist now, it's all the testing to ensure that the vaccine isn't as dangerous as the disease. Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 04:31:05 pm
[...]  This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion.  [...]

Welcome to the Internet!    ;)

Back in the day, when I was setting up one of the UK's first ISPs, it attracted a slightly better calibre of interlocutor, where reasoned argument rather than the loudest and most obnoxious voice held sway. Well, some of the time. Now, where was I? Oh yes. What are you doing on my lawn young man!?!  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 27, 2020, 04:33:26 pm
[...]  This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion.  [...]

Welcome to the Internet!    ;)

Back in the day, when I was setting up one of the UK's first ISPs, it attracted a slightly better calibre of interlocutor, where reasoned argument rather than the loudest and most obnoxious voice held sway. Well, some of the time. Now, where was I? Oh yes. What are you doing on my lawn young man!?!  :)

Which ISP was that?

Nowadays, any forum without moderation will be overrun by pests...    the best moderators help evolve pests to useful contributors.  We have to allow people to be young and stupid, like we were!  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 27, 2020, 04:35:51 pm
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.

One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 27, 2020, 04:41:58 pm
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.

One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.

Yes - except for the seasonal flu vaccines, that get modified and released with ultra short cycles. We can say they are mainly variants of well known vaccines, but still.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 27, 2020, 04:44:03 pm
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.

One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Do you have any data/facts to support that? It sounds implausible, like the supposed link between autism and MMR vaccine, which was proven to be BS and cost lives.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 27, 2020, 04:44:14 pm
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.

One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.

Yes - except for the seasonal flu vaccines, that get modified and released with ultra short cycles. We can say they are mainly variants of well known vaccines, but still.

That kind of approach may end up being the best bet against Covid-19 and its future mutations...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 27, 2020, 05:02:42 pm
What should be the penalty for advocating torture to death which is essentially what you're doing?

I can quite understand the attitude of someone who thinks that their personal risk profile for this disease is low and wants to get it over with. Sitting around waiting for this is like seeing the Sword of Damocles  dangling over your head or waiting in the dentist's chair for the bastard to get on with it and actually pull that tooth. I'm in a high risk group, I'm 60 and I have asthma - this disease is literately an existential threat to me - but even I can feel some of that desire to "have it done and over with". Just because someone expresses that does not mean that they have a longing to catch it and become a Typhoid Mary spreading it about left right and centre or behave in any other way irresponsibly. Someone expressing their thoughts and fears is not an acceptable reason for advocating burning people to death.

Perhaps we should ship a small field hospital and some instant barracks to Gruinard Island and let folks like Maginnovision and Stray Electron go to the 'leper colony' thus created to deliberately catch it, on the understanding that, once recovered, they have to come back and volunteer for the jobs that need doing by people with immunity for a set period of time as payment for the dubious privilege of being allowed to deliberately catch it while offering safety to others from their infected selves.
There shouldn't be conditions involved, except perhaps one. This whole thing is about getting it over with without overwhelming heath care. As long as there is room to spare going early may be as effective as going later but with the added benefit of being able to time your infection. You're not only flattening the curve but also load balancing to where we now we can handle it. I'm not as much advocating the idea as saying it may have its merits. Branding people as terrorists and threatening them with a tortuous death is obviously a ridiculous hyperbole fanned by mindless fear. Not everyone seems to cope equally well to being endlessly bombarded with news from every corner.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 05:07:11 pm
[...]  This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion.  [...]

Welcome to the Internet!    ;)

Back in the day, when I was setting up one of the UK's first ISPs, it attracted a slightly better calibre of interlocutor, where reasoned argument rather than the loudest and most obnoxious voice held sway. Well, some of the time. Now, where was I? Oh yes. What are you doing on my lawn young man!?!  :)

Which ISP was that?

Nowadays, any forum without moderation will be overrun by pests...    the best moderators help evolve pests to useful contributors.  We have to allow people to be young and stupid, like we were!  :D

Zoo Internet, now long forgotten, around No. 10 to get started going by LINX membership.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 05:12:41 pm
These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Sad. That's why the UK and US (and doubtless others) have statutory compensation schemes, to encourage vaccination that protects us all with the knowledge that the very rare cases that harm a few will be taken care of by all of us. (In theory. In practice, like with all things governmental, penny pinching is done and the compensation is never as generous as it ought to be, and it can take a bit of quibbling before people who deserve it get it. But that's governments for you, and it least it does exist and gets paid.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 05:19:42 pm
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.

One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Do you have any data/facts to support that? It sounds implausible, like the supposed link between autism and MMR vaccine, which was proven to be BS and cost lives.

Why should it be implausible? All things involve risk, like going for a walk.  Injecting attenuated/modified pathogens or parts of them into the human bloodstream doesn't exactly sound like the least risky thing one might do. Start at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_adverse_event (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_adverse_event) if you need convincing that vaccine related damage isn't "implausible".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 27, 2020, 05:22:50 pm
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.

One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Do you have any data/facts to support that? It sounds implausible, like the supposed link between autism and MMR vaccine, which was proven to be BS and cost lives.

Why should it be implausible? All things involve risk, like going for a walk.  Injecting attenuated/modified pathogens or parts of them into the human bloodstream doesn't exactly sound like the least risky thing one might do. Start at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_adverse_event (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_adverse_event) if you need convincing that vaccine related damage isn't "implausible".
There are a number of infections which can result in long term mental impairment, and vaccines are just impaired infections.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 27, 2020, 05:42:09 pm
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.

One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.

Yes - except for the seasonal flu vaccines, that get modified and released with ultra short cycles. We can say they are mainly variants of well known vaccines, but still.

That kind of approach may end up being the best bet against Covid-19 and its future mutations...

Until than  the world owner "mutate" the Covid-19 in another pest more mortal . Today, i found a interest video of the Covid-19 origins. Regrettably, this is in italian and translated in spanish.

Quote
An italian TV program from the public channel RAI 3,specialized in scientist info, told in 2015 , the "achievement " of the chinese scientists to modify the SARS virus for difusing the bats to humans  and affect their respiratory tract.

https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU (https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU)   Rafael Palacios ,alias "Rafapal" ,investigation journalist.
 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 27, 2020, 05:44:46 pm
These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.

Sad. That's why the UK and US (and doubtless others) have statutory compensation schemes, to encourage vaccination that protects us all with the knowledge that the very rare cases that harm a few will be taken care of by all of us. (In theory. In practice, ...

Of course we have very good compensation schemes in place just for this - in theory.

Zero999, you have to do some research on this if you are interested, but you can start at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemrix (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemrix)  and https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history/narcolepsy-flu.html (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history/narcolepsy-flu.html) . The narcolepsy cases are not limited to Finland alone, just the occurrence was in higher proportion here. Elsewhere, it was rare enough to mix into noise, hence it was first found here because here it was well above the noise floor.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 05:47:32 pm
... and vaccines are just impaired infections.

Yes and no. It depends on the type of vaccine. There are basically three types of vaccine.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 27, 2020, 05:53:29 pm
... and vaccines are just impaired infections.

Yes and no. It depends on the type of vaccine. There are basically three types of vaccine.

  • Live vaccines These contain a live organism that is capable of stimulating an immune response to the thing you are vaccinating against. In turn these have two subtypes
    • Related organisms. This is where an organism that is related to the one you're vaccinating against - but that is not itself disease causing - is used. The classic case is the use of cowpox to vaccinate against smallpox.
    • Attenuated organisms. This introduces the actual disease causing pathogen using either a sub-strain that has been 'bred' to be non-pathogenic, or an organism that has been chemically 'attenuated' so it is still 'live' but the biochemical mechanisms of pathogenicity have been crippled.
  • Killed vaccines These use the disease causing organism but it has been 'killed' stone dead so that you're just introducing its 'dead body', but the presence of the 'dead body' is still enough to induce an immune response.
  • Component vaccines Just a part or parts of the organism are introduced, typically isolated surface proteins, which are still enough to train your immune system to recognise the pathogen if it actually turns up intact.

Do you happen to know what type of vaccine the seasonal flu vaccines are?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 27, 2020, 05:56:55 pm
... and vaccines are just impaired infections.

Yes and no. It depends on the type of vaccine. There are basically three types of vaccine.

  • Live vaccines These contain a live organism that is capable of stimulating an immune response to the thing you are vaccinating against. In turn these have two subtypes
    • Related organisms. This is where an organism that is related to the one you're vaccinating against - but that is not itself disease causing - is used. The classic case is the use of cowpox to vaccinate against smallpox.
    • Attenuated organisms. This introduces the actual disease causing pathogen using either a sub-strain that has been 'bred' to be non-pathogenic, or an organism that has been chemically 'attenuated' so it is still 'live' but the biochemical mechanisms of pathogenicity have been crippled.
  • Killed vaccines These use the disease causing organism but it has been 'killed' stone dead so that you're just introducing its 'dead body', but the presence of the 'dead body' is still enough to induce an immune response.
  • Component vaccines Just a part or parts of the organism are introduced, typically isolated surface proteins, which are still enough to train your immune system to recognise the pathogen if it actually turns up intact.
That's why I said impaired. I figured it was a vague enough term to cover all the options.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 27, 2020, 06:08:46 pm
While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 06:14:17 pm
Do you happen to know what type of vaccine the seasonal flu vaccines are?

In the UK, for this year, there were 4 vaccines in use. One, a live attenuated influenza vaccine (i.e. laboratory 'bred' to be non-pathogenic), was used in children (ages 2-17), and the three used in adults were the 'dead body' variety with either 3 or 4 strains of virus covered. One of the killed vaccines (used for age group 65+) had an adjuvant that is intended to improve the uptake of immunity, the others were non-adjuvinated.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 06:34:23 pm
That's why I said impaired. I figured it was a vague enough term to cover all the options.  :)

Yeah, my objection, or rather desire to cast some more light, was that one can only really characterise the live vaccines as causing infection, and you said "impaired infection". I'm more than happy to stipulate that I'm being pernickety, but in the context of adverse vaccination events I think it helps people understand the territory. It would be easy for people to think that "impaired infection" could imply that adverse events are down to an unimpaired infection happening. That has been the cause of some very notable vaccination tragedies, but is not the only, indeed is probably now the minority, reason for adverse outcomes of vaccination.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 27, 2020, 06:49:36 pm
While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..
I don't think you'll find any relevant data. The purple areas are also the most densely populated ones.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 27, 2020, 06:52:31 pm
Once again, Josep Borrell had to open the mouth , and fuck the situation.

"Huawei will stop donating face masks to Europe after being accused of hiding political intentions

The statements of the European Foreign Minister, Josep Borrell, make Huawei go back on its health donations."

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell)

"The article"  https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es (https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es)



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 07:08:11 pm
The statements of the European Foreign Minister, Josep Borrell, make Huawei go back on its health donations."

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell)

"The article"  https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es (https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es)

I haven't read it yet, so this isn't a comment on the contents. If you're linking to an EU web page there's no need for Google translate links, the EU stuff always has translations in all the 'official' EU languages, done by real human translators who know the context - just pick your language near the top right corner of any page. It'd be a shame to waste the millions the EU spend on translators every year just to get a crappy Google translation instead.

Ignore me, I hadn't followed the Google translate link, but it is still worth bearing in mind.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 27, 2020, 07:33:09 pm
[attach=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 27, 2020, 07:35:34 pm

[...]
"Huawei will stop donating face masks to Europe after being accused of hiding political intentions
[...]


I really don't get how some people can be such awful diplomats, and still hold high positions...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 27, 2020, 07:36:03 pm
(Attachment Link)

Darwin award
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 27, 2020, 07:55:48 pm
I really don't get how some people can be such awful diplomats, and still hold high positions...
I can't seem to find this news on any major news outlets or many other places at all. We have to be mindful that there's a lot of nonsense going around. I'm not saying this necessarily is, but controversial COVID-19 news is excellent material for anyone whose business model is based on clicks and views.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 27, 2020, 08:09:22 pm
(Attachment Link)

Darwin award

Age 66? I think not, he'll have already spread his defective genes if he was going to.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 27, 2020, 08:17:58 pm
darnit
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 27, 2020, 09:07:23 pm
Age 66? I think not, he'll have already spread his defective genes if he was going to.
He'll unfortunately also have spread his ideas into the minds of other people.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 27, 2020, 09:11:29 pm
Thanks for the links!  At the moment I wear PPE for my personal protection.  And, like anyone else here, I have read all relevant manufacturer and hospital procedures.  At some point in my life I had PPE training for use in radioactive environment and, independently, biochemical hazard training in the army.  This included running assault course in full hazmat suit. If you doff it wrong - you have to do it again.  So you learn pretty quickly to pay attention to details.
Leo
While you're being sarky with Le Scram, do you wear PPE on a daily basis in an infection control setting, or just an industrial one? If the later, are you assuming that your expertise in one area automatically transfers to the other?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tinhead on March 27, 2020, 09:24:20 pm
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.

It's the first time he's done anything with a positive result.

Now, now.  I wouldn't wish this on anyone except Trump.

yeah .. but trump achived finally one step of the america first idea ...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 27, 2020, 09:28:56 pm
My summary of today's WHO March 27 Situation update on COVID19, focusing on the US as well as the top 8 countries with the most total deaths to date. If you're interested in other data not included here, check the report yourself at:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/)

Again, the chart below shows total US deaths to date in yellow, and daily deaths in dark blue. The spreadsheet below shows what it shows. I focus on numbers relative to population for this reason:

If city A has a population of 100,000, and 500 residents have COVID19, but city B has a population of only 1,000 but then same number of residents (500) have COVID19, which is in better shape in terms of the future outlook, and ability of infrastructure to handle the disease?

- The number of deaths in the US dropped yesterday to only 107 new deaths, compared to around 200 deaths in each of the previous 3 out of 4 days. For the last 9 or so days, the US has averaged around 100 deaths total per day.

- The US is in the same position it was yesterday (relative to the 8 countries with most deaths to date) in terms of confirmed cases as a % of the population (#6) and total deaths to date as a % of the population (#7).

- The US remains #3 in terms of total confirmed cases (68,334) among those 8 countries.   

FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.

And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tinhead on March 27, 2020, 09:44:01 pm
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns

i do focus only on deaths/death+recovered. Yes, not every country does report recovered, but taking infected as basis for % calculation of deaths is useless:
- the number of not reported infected is much higher that the number of not reported recovered
- every infected can die or survive, depending on lot of factors, so i can't take it into acount based on todays situation
- only China can take death/total infected into account, as they already managed to control currently infected and number of recovered+deaths ar almost equ to total infected.
- taking death/total infected is good for media or politicians, not for real "deaths rate statistic today"
 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 27, 2020, 09:46:39 pm
I wonder why the WHO data for the US lags other sources, like John's Hopkins. .

Are the US not sharing info in a transparent and timely manner?

(yes I guess tihis is 50% Troll and 50% serious qn)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 27, 2020, 09:53:40 pm
I wonder why the WHO data for the US lags other sources, like John's Hopkins. .

Are the US not sharing info in a transparent and timely manner?

(yes I guess tihis is 50% Troll and 50% serious qn)

I believe (may be wrong) that the US government CDC (Centers for Disease Control) is the final US government authority on stuff like this, and I also assume that's where WHO gets its data for the US. And it seems like WHO data lags a day behind CDC, but I haven't researched that much. The good thing about WHO is it's presumably a reasonable comparison between countries. 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 27, 2020, 10:59:12 pm
BTW, if you look at today's CDC report they show much higher numbers for the US confirmed cases and total deaths:

Confirmed = 85356 vs today's WHO of 68334 (diff = 17,022) which might put it in a tie with Italy and China for the lead in total confirmed cases unless they have a similar increase. But with the large US population it might remain down in #6 position of the top 8 countries in terms of confirmed cases as a % of population.

Total Deaths to Date = 1246 vs today's WHO of 991 (diff = 255). The 255 figure is highest of the daily death rates in the US so far (211 occurred in March 26 WHO report).

So I'm guessing that due to the time it takes CDC to finish its report then send it to WHO and have WHO incorporate it with all the others probably takes a day or so, and we should expect those CDC numbers to appear in tomorrow's WHO report.   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 27, 2020, 11:19:29 pm
assuming those organizations are receiving correct data and stats,
and still legit and not bought and paid for by the wealth shifters  :-//

With all the conflicting and contradictory reports, data and news media hype BS,

plus afaict the selfish low life toilet paper hoarders and those that miss out are still in perfect health,

the whole thing is beginning to smell like yet another drawn out (WORD)....  :popcorn:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 27, 2020, 11:48:32 pm
...

Unfortunately, many people, especially in the US (seemingly especially Fox News viewers, apparently even some here in Canada) still believe this is all a made-up hoax.

... Or it isn't more deadly than the flu.
... Or it doesn't affect anyone under 80.
... Or
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 27, 2020, 11:52:25 pm
I'm curious, why does Johns Hopkins always show more than CDC? I'd expect CDC to be the authority.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on March 27, 2020, 11:54:23 pm
While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html)
Infection rates are unlikely to be the correlation, its more about control measures/restrictions being applied in each area.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 12:16:13 am
I wonder why the WHO data for the US lags other sources, like John's Hopkins. .

Are the US not sharing info in a transparent and timely manner?

No, probably not always.  I suspect that the individual areas are all trying their best in most places.  Due to the lack of a functioning, cohesive federal system there right now though, the states' individual totals are probably the most accurate.  There is going to be exponential growth for weeks, though, so the precise numbers aren't really all that important right this moment or the immediate future.  Eg, New York is going to be hit extremely hard, regardless of whether some specific 10 or 20 thousand new cases show up on today's update or tomorrow's, depending on precisely when you roll over your daily total counter clock.  While the ultimate accuracy is important, the precise sequence in the timing of reporting statistics (though it is helpful if they are least consistent,) is relatively inconsequential in the end in this particular case due to the high number of cases, unfortunately.   :(

Here in Canada, the official federal page even specifically says that if there is any disagreement between the federal and provincial numbers, the provincial numbers should be presumed to be the most up-to-date and are to be taken as correct.  Healthcare is administered at the provincial level here in Canada, though there is federal oversight and guidelines for care standards, etc.

It is nice to live in a country with rapid, continuous transparency on this kind of issue.  Personally, I really have absolutely no reason to doubt how current and comprehensive, nor the accuracy of any of my local data, including things like:

https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx#toc-0 (https://www.alberta.ca/covid-19-alberta-data.aspx#toc-0)
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html#a1 (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html#a1)
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html)

How quintessentially Canadian...
Every one of the Federal pages has a button at the bottom to "Report a problem or mistake on this page"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 12:17:18 am
I'm curious, why does Johns Hopkins always show more than CDC? I'd expect CDC to be the authority.

The CDC's (and therefore the WHO, etc's) numbers significantly lag the individual states' disclosures.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 12:21:29 am
So I'm guessing that due to the time it takes CDC to finish its report then send it to WHO and have WHO incorporate it with all the others probably takes a day or so, and we should expect those CDC numbers to appear in tomorrow's WHO report.

Yes, the most local individual statistics are most likely to be correct.

It necessarily takes time for aggregate statistics to move up the reporting chain.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 28, 2020, 12:35:20 am
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive (https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive)

Supposedly china doesn't count asymptomatic positives and they might be seeing reinfections.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 28, 2020, 12:36:12 am
I'm curious, why does Johns Hopkins always show more than CDC? I'd expect CDC to be the authority.

I'd guess, and I am just guessing, that Johns Hopkins, a medical school, is trying to get the latest raw data out as quickly as possible for the benefit of researchers around the world, whereas the Centre for Disease Control is trying to generate a more finished product, one that disease control policies can be safely based on and probably has some additional formal quality control and review steps to go through before officially publishing numbers. It's precisely because CDC would want to have the authoritative figures that they'd want to do that, and that takes a little time.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bobcat2000 on March 28, 2020, 01:06:06 am
I am going crazy staying home all days for months!!!!!!!
I am going see how long I can hold my soldering iron with my hand before it is too hot for me to let go!!!!!



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 01:14:51 am
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.

And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.

:palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 01:24:08 am
I am going see how long I can hold my soldering iron with my hand before it is too hot for me to let go!!!!!

Please start with it cold each time...  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Dundarave on March 28, 2020, 01:34:13 am
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.

And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.

:palm:

"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bobcat2000 on March 28, 2020, 02:26:10 am
I am going see how long I can hold my soldering iron with my hand before it is too hot for me to let go!!!!!

Please start with it cold each time...  :)

I remember I had a high power laser unit with a huge power supply the size of a small microwave oven in the class.  We had 10 people in the class and the teacher ditched the class.  We were seating there doing nothing.  Instead of playing with the laser, we hold hands daisy chain together.   One guy holding the positive and the other guy holding the negative of that huge power supply.  We turned on the power supply and see who let go his/her hands first.  What an electric shock.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BrianHG on March 28, 2020, 03:47:35 am
(Attachment Link)

Darwin award
I know how we can easily point and judge, but this Christian pastor who has been fed false information through the US's 'republican media' and certain chosen US government's official claims, including those who he preaches to as a community.  To no fault of his own, I'm sure he truly believed his claims.  If he truly wanted to protect as many lives as possible of those who follow him who get their news from the same sources, though he is no longer among the living, he may have chosen this outcome if it warns and saves as many of his followers as possible.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hendorog on March 28, 2020, 06:10:08 am
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.

And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.

:palm:

"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

(Attachment Link)

That's the total. It's the increment (new deaths day per day)  that is fairly flat and gives an almost linear progression. But at this early stage I doubt it has any relevance. Mostly these are the dead that resulted from the number of infected about two weeks earlier (as per a study on Lancet IIRC). Not enough data.
The exponential for the death is starting to kick off in these days, unfortunately.

Besides, the number of deaths is the most controversial number because each Country seem to be using a different protocol in classifying death for Covid-19. The number of infected, on the other hand, reflects the number of 'mature' cases (that require medical attention) but also depends on the number of tests done. So, it seems to me there is not a surefire metric to compare how different countries fare.

I think you are dead right  (!)

Confirmed cases is a poor metric for comparison, as it depends on testing capacity - and contact tracing capacity to find cases to test based on known cases.
And there are many people who don't have symptoms - combined with people how have minor symptoms -so there could be big hidden clusters of people who are not tested.

Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)

Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 28, 2020, 07:39:08 am

The questionably sourced graph casualties are dying from what they were going to die from anyway, no invisible believers' C is necessary.

Why should the few low lifes keep beating this up and capitalize on it,
and send everyone else buying into the force fed BS to the poor house,
without even a sniffle or sneeze to show for it  :-[
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 28, 2020, 07:47:43 am
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says# (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says#)

Chinese CDC official says clinical trial results for remdesivir should be available in April.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 28, 2020, 08:08:07 am
While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html)
Infection rates are unlikely to be the correlation, its more about control measures/restrictions being applied in each area.
The percentage of people in ICUs does show a correlation, it seems..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 28, 2020, 08:11:59 am
I'm curious, why does Johns Hopkins always show more than CDC? I'd expect CDC to be the authority.

They always show the figures ahead of them going up on the UK's own public health england map. Some countries like the UK are just hopeless.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: JPortici on March 28, 2020, 08:15:42 am
Until than  the world owner "mutate" the Covid-19 in another pest more mortal . Today, i found a interest video of the Covid-19 origins. Regrettably, this is in italian and translated in spanish.

Quote
An italian TV program from the public channel RAI 3,specialized in scientist info, told in 2015 , the "achievement " of the chinese scientists to modify the SARS virus for difusing the bats to humans  and affect their respiratory tract.

https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU (https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU)   Rafael Palacios ,alias "Rafapal" ,investigation journalist.
 

oh god.. DON'T. that video resurfaced a few days ago and has been misinterpreted to death here by salvini and his goons already for propaganda

here, translate away..
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/25/news/coronavirus_tg_leonardo_esperimento_cinese_pipistrelli-252312426/ (https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/25/news/coronavirus_tg_leonardo_esperimento_cinese_pipistrelli-252312426/)
https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/03/25/news/salvini-posta-un-vecchio-video-della-rai-su-facebook-il-coronavirus-nato-in-un-laboratorio-cinese-1.38637381 (https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/03/25/news/salvini-posta-un-vecchio-video-della-rai-su-facebook-il-coronavirus-nato-in-un-laboratorio-cinese-1.38637381)
https://www.agi.it/cronaca/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-tg-leonardo-7861064/ (https://www.agi.it/cronaca/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-tg-leonardo-7861064/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 28, 2020, 09:20:07 am
Until than  the world owner "mutate" the Covid-19 in another pest more mortal . Today, i found a interest video of the Covid-19 origins. Regrettably, this is in italian and translated in spanish.

Quote
An italian TV program from the public channel RAI 3,specialized in scientist info, told in 2015 , the "achievement " of the chinese scientists to modify the SARS virus for difusing the bats to humans  and affect their respiratory tract.

https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU (https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU)   Rafael Palacios ,alias "Rafapal" ,investigation journalist.
 

that has nothing to do with SARS-CoV-2 which has been proven of natural origin (Nature Medicine recent article)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 28, 2020, 09:32:10 am
Once again, Josep Borrell had to open the mouth , and fuck the situation.

"Huawei will stop donating face masks to Europe after being accused of hiding political intentions

The statements of the European Foreign Minister, Josep Borrell, make Huawei go back on its health donations."

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell)

"The article"  https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es (https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es)

I read the Italian translation and I can't see anything wrong in Mr Borrell statements.
Huawei was probably just looking for an excuse to retract the donations, and I do not know how much real are those as I read that Italy is paying Chinese supplies (and using its own Air Force airplanes to deliver them).
I would have mentioned anyway Russia more than China, although so far Russian involvement seems to be limited into Italy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 28, 2020, 09:39:18 am
"Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting"

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 28, 2020, 09:44:04 am
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.

And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.

:palm:

"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

(Attachment Link)
may be it is just a flat EEG  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 28, 2020, 09:47:18 am
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.

And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.

:palm:

"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

(Attachment Link)

Are we failing basic maths now? That graph does seem to show a fairly flatish death rate. That's a cumulative deaths graph, death rate is d deaths / dt
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 28, 2020, 09:48:56 am
Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)

Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.

here is an interesting article on the subject (unfortunately for some reason the graphics do not appear in the google translated page)
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fsalute%2Fmalattie_infettive%2F20_marzo_27%2Fstudio-ispi-ecco-qual-vera-letalita-covid-19-italia-b95d19cc-7029-11ea-82c1-be2d421e9f6b.shtml (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fsalute%2Fmalattie_infettive%2F20_marzo_27%2Fstudio-ispi-ecco-qual-vera-letalita-covid-19-italia-b95d19cc-7029-11ea-82c1-be2d421e9f6b.shtml)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 28, 2020, 10:20:58 am
While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html)
Infection rates are unlikely to be the correlation, its more about control measures/restrictions being applied in each area.
The number of people in ICUs does show a correlation, it seems..

Well it does at any time. Try looking at a control period or two, you'll find a correlation between measures of atmospheric pollution and ICU admissions there too (rising NOx => rising ICU occupancy). What you'll then see if you look further is a fall in NOx emissions recently (because nobody is using the roads) and a rise in ICU admissions (coronavirus infections). If you're looking at correlation from the absolute magnitude of difference from the mean (e.g. using variance like the Pearson correlation coefficient, R, which Excel uses) it will treat both positive and negative effects as correlation. If you're using a method that simply looks for any correlation (like Pearson) you'll find it, you need to use something sensitive to the sign of the difference from the mean before you'll see something half meaningful. Let us not forget the mantra of all scientists when dealing with statistics "Correlation does not imply causation".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hamster_nz on March 28, 2020, 10:30:26 am
Are we failing basic maths now? That graph does seem to show a fairly flatish death rate. That's a cumulative deaths graph, death rate is d deaths / dt

I guess it looks sort of flat, if you hold your head on the side...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 11:07:10 am
Definition of "rate" from Merriam Webster:

"quantity, amount, or degree of something measured per unit of something else"

As I described in my post, I chose to define "rate" in this case as "new deaths per day". And as I showed in my chart (but apparently some didn't read), the number of new deaths each day has been fairly flat, on average, jumping between 50 to 200 or so new deaths each day. If you don't like my choice of definition, I'm sure you can still get my point. Just look at the blue bars in the chart.   

Also, I caution folks to try to avoid grabbing data from the internet to prove whatever point you want to make without verifying the source of the data. And trying to compare 254 different data sources is somewhat ludicrous at this point. Yeah, you can always find someone saying stuff that confirms what you want to believe, but by using a single, reasonably credible (ie, CDC and WHO) data source at least gives a good uniform and relative comparison.

I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows. And if actual data doesn't agree with what you've chosen to believe, maybe you should reconsider your beliefs rather than throwing in a bunch of unsubstantiated "what if's". Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 28, 2020, 12:46:44 pm
Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)

Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.

here is an interesting article on the subject (unfortunately for some reason the graphics do not appear in the google translated page)
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fsalute%2Fmalattie_infettive%2F20_marzo_27%2Fstudio-ispi-ecco-qual-vera-letalita-covid-19-italia-b95d19cc-7029-11ea-82c1-be2d421e9f6b.shtml (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fsalute%2Fmalattie_infettive%2F20_marzo_27%2Fstudio-ispi-ecco-qual-vera-letalita-covid-19-italia-b95d19cc-7029-11ea-82c1-be2d421e9f6b.shtml)

As far as I understood, over here the reporting method is going to change. It was found that the majority of PCR tests came back negative and from now on everyone in contact with a confirmed case is reported infected but not tested. I'm now part of that statistic group. Lab tests with the PCR test kit are only being done on  symptomatic patients with a contact history. That's going to skew the numbers of course. Mass testing will close the gap eventually, but those need to be carefully planned, too. ELISA tests are being rolled out soon, but those a still lab tests. Lateral Flow tests are not yet available, at least nothing that was validated. I heard you can buy them, though, at least they're being offered to MDs and pharmacies. No idea about their origin, though.

For me personally, that's a weird situation. I show up in the "infected" group, but I'm only sent into isolation for two weeks to see what I breed. After that, if I'm not getting worse and being admitted to hospital I'm not getting tested. If in two weeks I show no further symptoms, I'll show up as "recovered" but I have no idea if I'm now immune and can go about my business, for example, get in contact with my parents or if I still risk to become infected and potentially spread the virus further. This is very unsatisfying.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 28, 2020, 01:31:38 pm
Quote
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.

What? Are you crazy??!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 01:50:24 pm
I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows.
...
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.

You honestly still believe that the near-term progression in the USA cannot be predicted?  Wow.

:palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 01:55:37 pm
As I described in my post, I chose to define "rate" in this case as "new deaths per day". And as I showed in my chart (but apparently some didn't read), the number of new deaths each day has been fairly flat, on average, jumping between 50 to 200 or so new deaths each day.

Of course the new deaths per day has been relatively flat, and low, as the number of infected people was low 2-3 weeks ago.  The number of infected hadn't started rising exponentially yet.  Once some of those cases from the explosive-spread phase start having outcomes, things aren't going to be pretty and the line is not going to be flat.

I don't understand how you can refuse to see that.  I'm beginning to think this is deliberate trolling.

Good luck, regardless...  Try to stay healthy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 01:58:42 pm
I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows.
...
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.

You honestly still believe that the near-term progression in the USA cannot be predicted?  Wow.

:palm:

As usual, I provide data and you provide facepalms and unsupported, handwaving predictions.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mortymore on March 28, 2020, 02:19:19 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUZIp_PKeZ0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUZIp_PKeZ0)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 28, 2020, 02:20:46 pm
I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows.
...
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.

You honestly still believe that the near-term progression in the USA cannot be predicted?  Wow.

:palm:

As usual, I provide data and you provide facepalms and unsupported, handwaving predictions.

No he didn't, no prediction, no handwaving. He expressed incredulity at what he sees as your beliefs. Not the same thing at all. If you're going to criticise someone, criticise them for what they actually said.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 02:38:24 pm
"Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting"
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html)

I will have to read the whole paper that the calculatons in your above cited paper are using (where they estimate the 1.38%) which was based on a data from January on a few thousand cases in China:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf)

At first glance of your cited paper, though, they don't really specify any backup data to show that their procedure for estimating how under-reported cases are in a given area are sound.  They're basically assuming that a) the 1.38% is a reliable reference percentage, b) that anywhere that the rate appears higher than 1.38%, it must be entirely due to under-reporting of infections.

Now, it is true that I don't expect the actual CFR in the US to be >20% when all is said and done, but there is certainly the potential for it to be higher than their "standard" of 1.38%.

As an aside, their chart essentially shows that Canada "must be" only finding 15-40% of our true cases, yet this does not seem to correlate with the 1-1.5% positive rate on all the testing we've done thus far.  Where are all these supposedly un-diagnosed symptomatic cases hiding?

It will be very interesting to see the results of some antibody tests on more of the general public once those become available to test for markers of past infections.  That will finally give us some real data on that front to make better estimates and plan who can do what, where, before a vaccine is (hopefully, potentially, eventually) available for those who have not yet been exposed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 03:04:56 pm
"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

That's the total. It's the increment (new deaths day per day)  that is fairly flat and gives an almost linear progression. But at this early stage I doubt it has any relevance. Mostly these are the dead that resulted from the number of infected about two weeks earlier (as per a study on Lancet IIRC). Not enough data.
The exponential for the death is starting to kick off in these days, unfortunately.

Indeed, the flat section of the "deaths" graph corresponds to the flat section of the "infected" curve from a couple weeks ago.  It's not going to be flat again, at least not for a while:

(https://i.imgur.com/uHCG4O1.png)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on March 28, 2020, 03:06:32 pm
Yep, same as in the UK.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 03:36:16 pm
Again, I have been summarizing data from WHO regarding the present status of the situation. The only prediction I've made is that we can't predict the future with any certainty, other than some VERY broad generalizations to say that since this is still early, things will get worse. But nobody can quantify what "worse" means in terms of actual numbers. Just like nobody can define or quantify what "things won't be pretty" means. None of that is usable data.

But those hazy, undefined generalizations certainly provide an "out" for people to look back on this in a few months and say "see, I was right, it wasn't 'pretty'".  :D 

My purpose in summarizing these reports has been solely for my own information to see what the actual numbers say, rather than believe those running around in a panic saying we'll all die tomorrow.  :scared:

The only reason I post it is to hopefully provide a bit of comfort for those who might be falling prey to the fear and paranoia, and are looking for real numbers and perhaps a bit of hope. It's certainly helped me to put things into perspective. But if you don't like the info, please don't read my posts on the subject.   
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 03:41:02 pm
...
rather than believe those running around in a panic saying we'll all die tomorrow.  :scared:

Who said anything like that?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 28, 2020, 04:09:39 pm
Accusing people of doing things they haven't been doing is a pretty good example of hand waving.

As for summaries, I'd suggest using one of the existing sites using the same data that allows sorting by column headers. Instant results without having to sacrifice most of the data before drawing conclusions.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mortymore on March 28, 2020, 05:02:24 pm
To check the situation in Portugal

https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 28, 2020, 05:06:04 pm
To check the situation in Portugal

https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/

First report of distribution of symptoms I have seen online. That is very interesting!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: peter-h on March 28, 2020, 05:25:21 pm
Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 28, 2020, 06:01:57 pm
As I wrote before, it's like watching frogs being slowly boiled in water. They swim so happily until they are nearly done.

Since we're trying to be scientific, boiled frogs is a myth: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: engrguy42 on March 28, 2020, 06:06:55 pm
After reviewing the numbers so far, I tried to come up with what I personally think is a reasonable ballpark of how I personally am expecting this virus to proceed in the US. Now, before you jump in and tell me I'm wrong, don't bother. I agree with you. I'm wrong.

The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally. Based on present WHO data on how it's transpired so far in the world.

My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.

My reasoning:

- Present confirmed cases in US are probably around 80k, and if we assume a ballpark death rate of around 3% that means as a minimum we can expect an additional 2,000+ deaths, raising the total from the present 1,000 to 3,000.

- Most countries have been in lockdown much of this week, and in the US I assume/hope that this means the recent transmission rates have dropped precipitously starting this week. And I'm hoping/expecting that means that new confirmed cases will start to drop sometime in late April.

- So the big unknowns are the success of the lockdown as well as the impact of not-yet-confirmed cases. And nobody knows the answer.

If China's numbers are to be believed, they have been very successful with their lockdown. Again, if they are to be believed, China is where it started, and with a population of 1.4 billion it's surprising they have had so few deaths (3,000+?). So maybe it's possible.

I'm *guessing* that Italy has suffered due partly to a timing issue, whereby they shut down later than China did relative to their transmission/infections. And I *think* the US shut down this week was relatively early in the process and therefore might be in better shape as far as new transmissions. 

So given all that, I personally won't be surprised if by end of April the US sees a total death rate about where Italy is today (ie, maybe something like 8x what the US total deaths are today, or somewhere between 5,000 to 10,000 total), and after that I'm expecting the virus to follow the path of SARS and other past viruses that kinda died out.

Again, I admit this is all wrong. And if you disagree, feel free to post your own predictions, with numbers and rationale and such like I did. Should be interesting.   

 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on March 28, 2020, 06:12:51 pm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Instead of all of us inventing data and predictions, take a look at how it's done...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 28, 2020, 06:31:04 pm
A pedant writes:

Quote
boiled frogs is a myth

ignoring the possibility that it's also a metaphor, thus missing the wood for the trees :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 28, 2020, 06:34:17 pm
After reviewing the numbers so far, I tried to come up with what I personally think is a reasonable ballpark of how I personally am expecting this virus to proceed in the US. Now, before you jump in and tell me I'm wrong, don't bother. I agree with you. I'm wrong.

The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally. Based on present WHO data on how it's transpired so far in the world.

My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.
That is highly speculative. If you look at Italy (Wikipedia has daily numbers for cases, recoveries and deaths for many countries) then you can see they are managing to flatten the daily increase of cases and number of deaths (which seem to be correlated to the flattening of daily cases is likely not due to less testing). Looking at the new cases and deaths in the US then the number is still rising rapidly. Also large parts of the US don't seem to be locked down (yet) so the Covid19 virus is spreading there freely. I've seen articles estimating the number of deaths in the US ranging from 450k to 1.5M. Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 28, 2020, 06:39:54 pm
I recently saw a video(https://youtu.be/INrWb-kl5NI) New York City public housing hasn't been cleaning buildings, have limited elevators(forcing people to be cramped into remaining), and they're people who don't always have internet and are largely unaware of what they should be doing. 500000 people in close proximity. If it hits there you'll see huge numbers real fast, and while it would be bad I'd hardly say it reflects the US situation as a whole. New York has a population density over double that of any other US city.

There also is the idea of an actionable quarantine of the tristate area(NY, NJ, CT). NJ has started to quarantine people coming from NY as well.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mortymore on March 28, 2020, 06:44:02 pm
Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.

Probably here is something of interest: https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/ (https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/)

Don't know how accurate the numbers are, but you can check de population distribution by ages in the world
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 28, 2020, 06:45:24 pm
A pedant writes:

Quote
boiled frogs is a myth

ignoring the possibility that it's also a metaphor, thus missing the wood for the trees :)

And the little pool of simmering frog soup in the middle of that wood.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 28, 2020, 06:48:34 pm
The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally.

If it's purely for personal consumption, as you stress so heavily, why are you bothering other people with it? Is this a version of "stop hitting my hand with your face?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 28, 2020, 06:52:20 pm
Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.

It is high unlikely to die out. It is so wide spread now that it will probably become just like the other human coronaviruses, hopefully with just the same flu-like symptoms once we get herd immunity (via vaccine).
BTW the most recent hypothesis is that pangolins were the intermediate hosts beween bats and humans (https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jproteome.0c00129).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 28, 2020, 07:04:54 pm
Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.

Probably here is something of interest: https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/ (https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/)

Don't know how accurate the numbers are, but you can check de population distribution by ages in the world
According to a Dutch newspaper Dutch doctors observed 70% to 80% of the people ending up in the ICU are fat. Ofcourse this is just an observation but could hint to other risk factors besides age.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 07:06:27 pm
...
Again, I admit this is all wrong. And if you disagree, feel free to post your own predictions, with numbers and rationale and such like I did. Should be interesting.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Instead of all of us inventing data and predictions, take a look at how it's done...

For anyone that is interested in doing their own analysis or verification, the following paper will likely prove useful to help guide your methodology.  It compares several methods of during-epridemic estimation versus the eventual final CFR of all the actual outcomes.  It was published in the American Journal of Epidemiology in 2005, based on the data from the 2003 SARS outbreak:

"Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease"
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-pdf/162/5/479/187184/kwi230.pdf (https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-pdf/162/5/479/187184/kwi230.pdf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Wimberleytech on March 28, 2020, 07:09:03 pm
Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.

It is high unlikely to die out. It is so wide spread now that it will probably become just like the other human coronaviruses, hopefully with just the same flu-like symptoms once we get herd immunity (via vaccine).
BTW the most recent hypothesis is that pangolins were the intermediate hosts beween bats and humans (https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jproteome.0c00129).
Interesting.  Did not know what a pangolin was until I looked it up.  Ironic that it is use for traditional Chinese medicine.
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mortymore on March 28, 2020, 07:31:03 pm
...
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?

Covid-19 spreads fast between humans with social contact or proximity, and affects most severely the older ones. Besides the aged population, we latins have strong family bonds, and are very relaxed in life, thinking that bad thing only hits others. And this conditions summed, lead to disaster.
In Portugal, seems so far, that we learned something from the misfortune that occurs in Italy and Spain.
My heart is with them  :'(

EDIT: We have a social health care service that serves everyone, so there's hardly any death from Covid-19 without being acknowledge as that. Countries were that's not the case, some may die without being reported, treated or tested.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Dundarave on March 28, 2020, 07:32:36 pm
The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally.

If it's purely for personal consumption, as you stress so heavily, why are you bothering other people with it? Is this a version of "stop hitting my hand with your face?

I think that it's becoming an overwhelmingly stressful time for many people, and a lot of people are doing whatever they can to cope mentally and physically with the uncertainty.  I'm seeing this everywhere these days, in all sorts of people, situations and venues, and one never knows the load that others are carrying in terms of worry about themselves, their family, and their ongoing existence.

I'd like to suggest, for the duration of this pandemic at least, that we all consider people's actions/comments/opinions through that lens, and cut everyone some slack.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 28, 2020, 07:48:57 pm
Interesting.  Did not know what a pangolin was until I looked it up.  Ironic that it is use for traditional Chinese medicine.
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?

Pangolins looks almost like armadillos, but are completely unrelated.

Italy has been hit so hard because the contagion had spread without anybody had noticed.

The central government suspended all flights with China since the 31st of January when 2 Chinese nationals were found positive and promptly hospitalized. But those sensible guys had self-quarantined and had not spread the contagion to anybody. Apart them and another Italian repatriated from China there was no other known case (those first 3 cases fully recovered and didn't spread the contagion to anybody else) up to the 20th of February.

You can find a recap here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Lombardy_cluster

The main problem is that there had been no contact between that first spotted case and anybody coming from China. A German study proposed that the contagion had gone from Germany to Italy (one of the most densely populated parts of Italy).
Nobody expected that and the virus was able to get a foothold in various hospitals and nursing home while those first deaths of old and sick people had been considered just ordinary flu deaths.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 28, 2020, 08:26:00 pm
Quote
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?

Footy match and not realising the threat when presented with it:

Quote
On March 7, her father, Claudio Travelli, 60, was driving a food delivery truck all around northern Italy. The next day, he developed a fever and flu-like symptoms. His wife had run a fever in recent days, and so he called his family doctor, who told him to take a common Italian fever reducer and rest up.

For much of the prior month, Italian officials had sent mixed messages about the virus.

On Feb. 19, some 40,000 people from Bergamo, a province of about a million people in the region of Lombardy, traveled 30 miles to Milan to watch a Champions League soccer game between Atalanta and the Spanish team Valencia. (The mayor of Bergamo, Giorgio Gori, this week called the match “a strong accelerator of contagion.”) Mr. Travelli and his wife didn’t take the threat of the virus seriously back then, their daughter said, “because it wasn’t sold as a grave thing.”

Taken from a very sobering picture piece in the New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 28, 2020, 08:51:17 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html)
It's behind a login wall in order to harvest e-mail addresses to spam. Can you paste the relevant part of the text?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 28, 2020, 09:24:14 pm
I was reading an interesting article (in between watching incredibly inane movies) in which they examined survivors of the 1918 H1N1 flu....

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07231.epdf?referrer_access_token=Vyn0JX8ce0UgpEObeHFQStRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0P-hTGufxokLlBSmytyWfowCBsIVSdopVCDwpHmGqSqgSpMTiaOy5uudcYMA-3xwzy2H0dmCINd2usthdi276xFB3RwVayCiOwfUGCdYmAKoAgJPH2dr6MkMueG7oH3FX9yZbqSr4DZDklhIDpK7VcPjwoqT0vXzB32vEM54CXbbI4OHTvQGMsKWUirc9P7GTEd9rh7ZKpWjxhl7uc286eBpRo7vvcPnCnuGLHzDDiY84Fd4XimeF8XEqXy8TOPXYg%3D (https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07231.epdf?referrer_access_token=Vyn0JX8ce0UgpEObeHFQStRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0P-hTGufxokLlBSmytyWfowCBsIVSdopVCDwpHmGqSqgSpMTiaOy5uudcYMA-3xwzy2H0dmCINd2usthdi276xFB3RwVayCiOwfUGCdYmAKoAgJPH2dr6MkMueG7oH3FX9yZbqSr4DZDklhIDpK7VcPjwoqT0vXzB32vEM54CXbbI4OHTvQGMsKWUirc9P7GTEd9rh7ZKpWjxhl7uc286eBpRo7vvcPnCnuGLHzDDiY84Fd4XimeF8XEqXy8TOPXYg%3D)

Here we show that of the 32 individuals tested that were born in or before 1915, each showed seroreactivity with the 1918 virus, nearly 90 years after the pandemic. Seven of the eight donor samples tested had circulating B cells that secreted antibodies that bound the 1918 HA.

I am not an immunologist, but it seems clear that there was plenty of "memory" for the virus left.

But, look at this article investigating 2009 H1N1: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016809 (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016809)

Vaccination of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) was effective. However, about half or more recovered patients and vaccinated persons might have lost sufficient immunity against the recurrence of the viral infection after half a year.

Having a biological "memory" of the infection event is not the same thing as "sufficient immunity", but I am confused by the differences.

I'm anxious to see what we will see with SARS-Cov-2. Has anybody seen published immunity data? All I see are test development and suggested rapid deployment tests e.g., https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1  (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 09:25:31 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html)
It's behind a login wall in order to harvest e-mail addresses to spam. Can you paste the relevant part of the text?

Try opening it in a private window.  That works here in Firefox.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: drussell on March 28, 2020, 09:51:18 pm
...
looking for real numbers and perhaps a bit of hope.

You aren't the only one.  Stay strong, friend!

I realize that many people are trying to "make sense of it all," find some hope and comfort in this whole dreadful situation.  Personally, I find the most comfort in truthful transparency, facts and data, rather than trying to put a sugar coating on an inevitable reality.

My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.
...
Present confirmed cases in US are probably around 80k, and if we assume a ballpark death rate of around 3% that means as a minimum we can expect an additional 2,000+ deaths, raising the total from the present 1,000 to 3,000.
...
So given all that, I personally won't be surprised if by end of April the US sees a total death rate about where Italy is today (ie, maybe something like 8x what the US total deaths are today, or somewhere between 5,000 to 10,000 total), and after that I'm expecting the virus to follow the path of SARS and other past viruses that kinda died out.

Obviously everyone wants to hope for the prevention of as many deaths as possible, everywhere.

The problem with doing simplistic extrapolating from the current numbers is you're not taking into account the exponential nature of the infections past the set of patients that today's outcomes represent.  You have to shift the outcomes back on the confirmed-infected curves to see the actual trajectory and make estimations based on that.  Here are a couple of examples, simply pulled from the latest raw JHU data (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19), with the known outcomes shifted back given what we know about average time-to-outcome, etc. and graphed:

(https://i.imgur.com/iSED0bQ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/ZRXCLQx.png)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 28, 2020, 09:57:23 pm
I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 28, 2020, 10:20:04 pm
I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)
Unfortunately there are some cunts around.

Apparently it's now a criminal offence to threaten someone by claiming you have Covid-19 and coughing on them. It's say they've had to create new laws to deal with this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 28, 2020, 10:23:37 pm
I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)
It's a stupid thing to do and I understand the need to show there's no tolerance for these kinds of things, but that's still pretty harsh.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 28, 2020, 11:31:53 pm
I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)


More DESPERATE publicity stunts to keep the BS pumping.. as long as the market can bear    :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mortymore on March 28, 2020, 11:34:35 pm
I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)
It's a stupid thing to do and I understand the need to show there's no tolerance for these kinds of things, but that's still pretty harsh.

I think he deserves time in jail. The police officer and probably other co-workers my have to be some time in quarantine and run Corona tests, not being able to work, and until the results came, preferably stay way from the family.

EDIT: Spanish police in action: https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/ (https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 12:06:16 am
I think he deserves time in jail. The police officer and probably other co-workers my have to be some time in quarantine and run Corona tests, not being able to work, and until the results came, preferably stay way from the family.

EDIT: Spanhish police in action: https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/ (https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/)
I don't disagree but a year in prison is a lot. It doesn't sound like much but it in all likelihood means losing your job, house and probably relationship and part of your support network. It's a life changing reset for most. Being stern with idiots isn't a terrible idea but heavy-handedly destroying even more lives doesn't sound appropriate.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 29, 2020, 12:13:10 am
Same can be said about heavy fines. Here under the Quarantine Act one can be fined up to $750,000. Tough times require tough measures, it is what it is.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 12:16:45 am
Same can be said about heavy fines. Here under the Quarantine Act one can be fined up to $750,000. Tough times require tough measures, it is what it is.
Though times require effective measures. Being stern is one thing but utterly destroying people serves no one.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 29, 2020, 12:18:41 am
Finally found a good use for the Digikey bags! Put a Lysol wipe in it to make an emergency disinfecting pack that is convenient to carry in the pocket.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 29, 2020, 12:19:10 am
I think he deserves time in jail. The police officer and probably other co-workers my have to be some time in quarantine and run Corona tests, not being able to work, and until the results came, preferably stay way from the family.

EDIT: Spanhish police in action: https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/ (https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/)
I don't disagree but a year in prison is a lot. It doesn't sound like much but it in all likelihood means losing your job, house and probably relationship and part of your support network. It's a life changing reset for most. Being stern with idiots isn't a terrible idea but heavy-handedly destroying even more lives doesn't sound appropriate.
If someone is idiotic enough to spit or cough on someone the person likely doesn't have much of a life to begin with. One of the people they sentenced to do jail time in the NL was a homeless person (he didn't die but is no longer homeless). Let's not forget that Covid19 is a potentially deadly decease; not something to make fun of. Especially when it involves public servants doing their best to keep the country clean and safe.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 29, 2020, 12:22:14 am
In my inbox from a mate:

News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection

All,

This is advice given to hospital staff.

This is an internal email for RBH staff: Virus detection COVID-19.
...........................................................
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2987192/#msg2987192 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2987192/#msg2987192)

Stay safe guys.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kasper on March 29, 2020, 12:23:13 am
https://mobile.reuters.com/video/watch/idPqZx?now=true

Quote
Baton-wielding police in India have been filmed beating people breaking the coronavirus lockdown rules and making some offenders do physical punishments
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 12:32:40 am
If someone is idiotic enough to spit or cough on someone the person likely doesn't have much of a life to begin with. One of the people they sentenced to do jail time in the NL was a homeless person (he didn't die but is no longer homeless). Let's not forget that Covid19 is a potentially deadly decease; not something to make fun of. Especially when it involves public servants doing their best to keep the country clean and safe.
Running a red light poses a much more real danger and we don't lock people up for a year for that either. I'm not even suggesting to not do anything about such behaviour and understand that examples have to be made, it's just that we shouldn't go overboard. People are scared and emotional but that doesn't mean we should lose all common sense and proportion.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hendorog on March 29, 2020, 12:33:57 am
I think you are dead right  (!)

Confirmed cases is a poor metric for comparison, as it depends on testing capacity - and contact tracing capacity to find cases to test based on known cases.
And there are many people who don't have symptoms - combined with people how have minor symptoms -so there could be big hidden clusters of people who are not tested.

Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)

Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.

Personally, the metric I would use is the total number of deaths - for any cause. Compare with the same period of the previous years and, unless there is some other killer disease going on - it will give you a measure of how lethal this Covid-19 is.

Another metric is the saturation of hospitals and ICUs.


Not sure if this has been mentioned, but here is a tool I found which models the capacity and saturation of the health system:
https://neherlab.org/covid19/
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 29, 2020, 12:36:57 am
News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection.... This is advice given to hospital staff.... This advice explains how to prevent the virus.... So please share with family, friends and your work colleagues.

This is exactly the type of information I was after, many thanks.   :) 

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 12:37:09 am
In my inbox from a mate:

News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection

All,

This is advice given to hospital staff.

This is an internal email for RBH staff: Virus detection COVID-19.

This advice explains how to prevent the virus. So please share with family, friends and your work colleagues

The COVID-19 infection does cause a dry and rough cough. The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. These symptoms can last between 3 and 4 days.

The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 – 6 days. Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. There may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.

Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning:
Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection.
It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.

Prevention:
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.
Therefore, hot drinks such as infusions, broths or simply hot water should be consumed abundantly during the day. These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest. Avoid drinking ice water or drinks with ice cubes. No ice with the rum lol
Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes.
WHY?
Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.

The sun’s UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you.

The Coronavirus has a large size (diameter 400-500 nanometres) so facemasks are needed in daily life. If an infected person sneezes near you, stay 10 feet (3.3 meters) away to allow the virus fall to the ground and prevent it from falling on you.

When the virus is on hard surfaces, it survives about 12 hours, therefore when hard surfaces such as doors, appliances, railings, etc are touched, hands should be washed thoroughly and/or disinfected with alcoholic gel. The virus can live nested in clothes and tissues between 6 and 12 hours. Common detergents can kill it.
Things that cannot be washed should be exposed to the SUN and the virus will die.

The transmission of the virus usually occurs by direct infection, touching fabrics, tissues or materials on which the virus is present. Washing your hands is essential. The virus survives on our hands for only about 10 minutes. In that time many things can happen, rubbing the eyes, touching the nose or lips. This allows the virus to enter your throat. Therefore, for your good and the good of all, wash your hands very often and disinfect them. You can gargle with disinfectant solutions ie Listerine or Hydrogen Peroxide, that eliminates or minimises the amount of virus that can enter the throat. Doing so removes the virus before it goes down to the trachea and then to the lung
Disinfect things touched often: cell phone, keyboard, mouse, car steering wheel, door handles, etc.


Stay safe guys.
When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 29, 2020, 12:49:48 am
Quote
In my inbox from a mate:

Ah, a reliable source then.

Quote
News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection

All,

This is advice given to hospital staff.

This is an internal email for RBH staff: Virus detection COVID-19.

Allegedly. According to your mate.

Quote
Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes.
WHY?
Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.

Oh dear. My missus tried that one on me the other day, and she didn't get it from Brisbane.

The BBC thinks not. (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200319-covid-19-will-drinking-water-keep-you-safe-from-coronavirus)

Quote
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.

No kidding? So the quick way to shaft it is to breath it in and hit it with your 36+C core temperature, right? Somehow, I think not :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 29, 2020, 12:57:05 am
There was a similar one that told people to breath in air from a hair dryer since the heat would kill the virus. That email is garbage even if it doesn't mention hair dryers and has about a 2% chance of coming from a legitimate source. However you should keep hydrated since dry mucous membranes are more susceptible to infection.
Title: actually engineering related
Post by: coppercone2 on March 29, 2020, 01:04:10 am
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/drill-powered-perestalic-pump-for-covid-patients/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/drill-powered-perestalic-pump-for-covid-patients/)
Title: Re: actually engineering related
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 01:08:01 am
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/drill-powered-perestalic-pump-for-covid-patients/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/drill-powered-perestalic-pump-for-covid-patients/)
We don't have enough sketchy ventilator ideas yet?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 29, 2020, 01:12:30 am
@ Scran and dunkem
Please accept the official advice from Boris.   :P
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 29, 2020, 01:20:26 am
There was a similar one that told people to breath in air from a hair dryer since the heat would kill the virus. That email is garbage even if it doesn't mention hair dryers and has about a 2% chance of coming from a legitimate source. However you should keep hydrated since dry mucous membranes are more susceptible to infection.
Agreed. Don't start spreading fake-news even if it looks legit. The best lie is close to the truth.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 29, 2020, 01:26:54 am
When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?

We can quibble about whether is virus is 'alive' or not, but in material intended for general consumption I don't have a problem with people using the terminology and would have a problem if people used convoluted language to get around calling a virus 'live' rather than aiming for comprehension by all and sundry.

Where I get a bit antsy about this is:

Quote
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.

Really? So what's all the fuss about then? I doubt any bit of my body worth infecting is below 27C - how then does it survive in humans? According to my IR thermometer I don't have a single bit of exposed skin below 30ºC - I ought to be able to kill it by touching it (which we know is rubbish). When I see rubbish like that either somebody has been criminally careless and transposed 27ºC with 72ºC or alternatively it casts the whole 'official' origin into doubt.

and

Quote
The sun’s UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you.

Waaay too folksy for a considered bit of writing by a medic. And "and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you"? Both ungrammatical and a change of subject to "good for you" in the same sentence about killing the virus. Smacks of 'secretary' level education. A medic would only advocate vitamin D and zinc supplementation in cases of likely deficiency (the former unlikely in summer).

There's other stuff in there that sounds like folk advice rather than medical advice mixed up with sound medical advice of the kind that you could just pick up by listening. I suspect a round robin email from someone in the hospital rather than official hospital guidance for staff. If its bona fides prove true, that would be worrying.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 29, 2020, 02:08:42 am
In my inbox from a mate:
/----/
When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?

It has already been identified as such - https://metronorth.health.qld.gov.au/news/fake-email-covid-19
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 29, 2020, 02:14:48 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQRY92pWjZ0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQRY92pWjZ0)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 29, 2020, 02:27:56 am
https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-deborah-birx-warns-about-coronavirus-numbers-that-will-hit-u-s-next-week (https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-deborah-birx-warns-about-coronavirus-numbers-that-will-hit-u-s-next-week)

Next week will be bad as far as the numbers go in the US and then we should hopefully see some slow down.

Should... Hopefully... Yes, all we have right now is optimism no guarantees.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 29, 2020, 03:03:25 am
It's funny seeing people getting so scared of the virus, while positive quarantine results have been seen in not only China, but also Korea, Japan, Singapore and recently Italy.
I've just got discharged from a hospital that also treats COVID19 patients for a tonsillectomy procedure. Not that I wanted it to be done at this time, but the rapid onset of bad tonsil and lymph node inflammation just drove me mad.
For the past week, I had half an hour of walk twice a day around the hospital, passing the fever clinic entrance every lap.
Just use your PPE, stay away from the crowds, and wash your hands more frequently that usual. Then there's no worries.
FYI, I'm in Shenzhen, one of the largest port city in China handling tens of thousands of incoming people from worldwide, Hong Kong and through Hong Kong.
If everyone stays away from the crowds for two weeks, there would not be a need to vaccines and monthly long economy pauses.

I'm not scared, just concerned. I'm a mid thirties male on oxycodone for a current lung issue and I have severe asthma. If I caught it I very well may not make it. Besides, I'm stuck at home with nothing to do. I can't even play games because sitting is too stressful on my lungs right now. So... Keep an eye on the news of the day which is almost exclusively Coronavirus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 29, 2020, 03:53:25 am
Your phone can now get the coronavirus as well.   ::)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/federal-government-launches-coronavirus-australia-app/12100680 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/federal-government-launches-coronavirus-australia-app/12100680)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edy on March 29, 2020, 06:12:35 am
Some of the most successful coronavirus containment results are in countries using "authoritarian" technologies and strategies to track people. From immediate drastic quarantines to cellphone GPS tracking to contact-tracing and massive mandatory testing. Obviously these strategies work but can be unnerving to citizens of countries that do not have experience with this level of control and a concern to all who value freedoms and privacy. Unfortunately we are balancing along a fine line here and this can set a dangerous precedent to future policies, laws and rights of citizens.

Of course we must be smart about protecting others in our community and if people all did their civic responsibilities for 2-3 weeks the virus would fizzle out.... but meanwhile because they are not, and because we are not seeing as intensive targeting of individuals and contact-tracking in certain countries, they have instead adopted "collective punishment" measurements. That, plus the fact that bordered remained open and they were slow to curtail freedoms... obviously a difficult measure to impose in a society that values freedom. Sure an authoritarian country can stop the virus faster but many open countries (like Germanyand South Korea ffor example) seem to be managing to keep number of deaths low by aggressive targeting and containment for the good of the entire population.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vk6zgo on March 29, 2020, 06:20:43 am
When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?

We can quibble about whether is virus is 'alive' or not, but in material intended for general consumption I don't have a problem with people using the terminology and would have a problem if people used convoluted language to get around calling a virus 'live' rather than aiming for comprehension by all and sundry.

Where I get a bit antsy about this is:

Quote
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.

Really? So what's all the fuss about then? I doubt any bit of my body worth infecting is below 27C - how then does it survive in humans? According to my IR thermometer I don't have a single bit of exposed skin below 30ºC - I ought to be able to kill it by touching it (which we know is rubbish). When I see rubbish like that either somebody has been criminally careless and transposed 27ºC with 72ºC or alternatively it casts the whole 'official' origin into doubt.

and

Quote
The sun’s UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you.

Waaay too folksy for a considered bit of writing by a medic. And "and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you"? Both ungrammatical and a change of subject to "good for you" in the same sentence about killing the virus. Smacks of 'secretary' level education. A medic would only advocate vitamin D and zinc supplementation in cases of likely deficiency (the former unlikely in summer).

There's other stuff in there that sounds like folk advice rather than medical advice mixed up with sound medical advice of the kind that you could just pick up by listening. I suspect a round robin email from someone in the hospital rather than official hospital guidance for staff. If its bona fides prove true, that would be worrying.

I've seen an earlier version, purporting to be from the UK, that urges people to "sunbake".
Whoever edited this one knew that advice wouldn't "fly" in Oz.
"How good is Melanoma?"

I've seen a lot of edited political things, over the years, which, transplanted from their home country to this one, don't make sense, & unless you are particularly thick, can be laughed off.

These "coronavirus" ones are just plain sick!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 29, 2020, 08:06:10 am
If everyone stays away from the crowds for two weeks, there would not be a need to vaccines and monthly long economy pauses.

unfortunately the needed time depends on the percentage of quarantine conforming people that in the western countries is not enough and varying wildly among the various countries and within a given country itself.

besides that 2 weeks are not enough if the virus has already got a foothold and when health service staff, law enforcement staff and other essential service provider often have no individual protection devices

anyway we can always hope for some magic cure devised by Gwyneth Palthrow  ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 29, 2020, 08:10:40 am
I'm not scared, just concerned. I'm a mid thirties male on oxycodone for a current lung issue and I have severe asthma. If I caught it I very well may not make it.

Sorry to hear about that. Please don't get me wrong. I'm not being specific to anyone. Just don't understand why many otherwise perfectly healthy people being so concerned.

besides the fact that even young and healthy people have died (18, 21, 26 years old) or are severely ill, several people here have health problems (they can usually manage without too much trouble) and/or are no longer so young and/or have to take care for their parents or relatives who might even be at a higher risk
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 29, 2020, 08:19:02 am
Thanks to Albania. That is a small and not so rich country and probably is seldom mentioned in the news. Anyway they are more willing to help us than other European countries.

https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F29%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_medici_albania_italia-252593099%2F (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F29%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_medici_albania_italia-252593099%2F)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 29, 2020, 08:36:33 am
If someone is idiotic enough to spit or cough on someone the person likely doesn't have much of a life to begin with. One of the people they sentenced to do jail time in the NL was a homeless person (he didn't die but is no longer homeless). Let's not forget that Covid19 is a potentially deadly decease; not something to make fun of. Especially when it involves public servants doing their best to keep the country clean and safe.
Running a red light poses a much more real danger and we don't lock people up for a year for that either. I'm not even suggesting to not do anything about such behaviour and understand that examples have to be made, it's just that we shouldn't go overboard. People are scared and emotional but that doesn't mean we should lose all common sense and proportion.
The difference is intent. He wanted to scare the police officer and the example you've provided isn't clear cut. I ran a red light yesterday because the stupid traffic light shouldn't have been red. I stopped, waited for a couple of minutes, until I noticed that all of the other junctions were clear, then preceded slowly, with caution. The same traffic light always does this: waits for ages on red, when it should be green, holding the traffic up. It's harming others by increasing pollution and CO2 levels and needs to be reprogrammed.

That man won't be in prison for that long. He'll be released in a few months. Hardly anyone serves the full sentence in this country.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 29, 2020, 10:18:10 am
Hold off with Chloroquine and its derivatives until we know more.
Few studies - most recent ones in China and France - suggest that it is useless at best and dangerous at worst.
http://www.zjujournals.com/med/EN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2020.03.03 (http://www.zjujournals.com/med/EN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9292.2020.03.03)
etc.
Italians are running a clinical study at the moment.
I am following this with some interest because I have some Hydroxychloroquine and Plaquenil put away as last resort option.  It might as well end up in a rubbish bin.
Leo

Moreover it is being reported that chloroquine is actually successful because it is an ionophore of zinc, ie it increases its concentration in the cells.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on March 29, 2020, 11:12:59 am
Chloroquine is nasty shit. Even if it is effective it should be last resort. Can cause permanent cardiac damage. Also on top of that so can Covid-19 apparently. Smells like a damage amplifier.

I think I have covid-19 at the moment. Relatively mild so far but indicators are persistent cough, fever (now gone), all over aches and pains.  I’m considering most of the company I work for had Covid-19 as well as we lost approximately half of the staff during feb with same class of symptoms. I get the feeling this will turn into something slightly worse than the usual flu season in body count even if it looks bad now. Long term economic and social damage will have a higher cost to society.

In U.K. we are at 4% of a bad flu year’s body count and the age distribution is about the same. I suspect the death rate will level out soon. I may eat my hat there but it seems a sensible assertion to make.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on March 29, 2020, 11:20:46 am
BBC NEWS just interviewed the lead of UK Hydroxychloroquine trial now.  It's ongoing. We will see soon.
Leo
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 29, 2020, 11:57:47 am
Quote
Please accept the official advice from Boris.

Worked for him!

Oh, wait...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 29, 2020, 12:08:07 pm
Quote
Please accept the official advice from Boris.

Worked for him!

Oh, wait...

Oh please.  This thread had turned into a mess.  Mask-gate and now this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Miti on March 29, 2020, 12:08:40 pm
I think I have covid-19 at the moment. Relatively mild so far but indicators are persistent cough, fever (now gone), all over aches and pains.  I’m considering most of the company I work for had Covid-19 as well as we lost approximately half of the staff during feb with same class of symptoms.

Right before Christmas our management team came sick after a meeting in the US. My boss told me that one guy was sick in the room and after few days, one by one the other participants got sick with the same symptoms; fever, muscle and joints aches, cough, chills, terrible sweating. Few days after Christmas my daughter an I got sick. I had flu few times in my life but this was different. In general flu comes with runny nose and congestion. We didn’t have any of these. Instead we had scratchy wind pipes, fever, chills, muscle and joint aches so intense that I haven’t felt before, sweating, dry cough that persisted for about a week after the fever subsided.
So does it mean that we had it. It was definitely something different than what I knew.
Is it possible that it was here long before we knew it?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on March 29, 2020, 12:14:51 pm
I think I have covid-19 at the moment. Relatively mild so far but indicators are persistent cough, fever (now gone), all over aches and pains.  I’m considering most of the company I work for had Covid-19 as well as we lost approximately half of the staff during feb with same class of symptoms.

Right before Christmas our management team came sick after a meeting in the US. My boss told me that one guy was sick in the room and after few days, one by one the other participants got sick with the same symptoms; fever, muscle and joints aches, cough, chills, terrible sweating. Few days after Christmas my daughter an I got sick. I had flu few times in my life but this was different. In general flu comes with runny nose and congestion. We didn’t have any of these. Instead we had scratchy wind pipes, fever, chills, muscle and joint aches so intense that I haven’t felt before, sweating, dry cough that persisted for about a week after the fever subsided.
So does it mean that we had it. It was definitely something different than what I knew.
Is it possible that it was here long before we knew it?

Yeah this isn’t normal flu. No runny nose or congestion. Just shitty cough, fever and like I’ve been beaten with sticks. It’s horrible but 10% as bad as having chicken pox was at 28 years old. We’re all on the company Slack talking about it now and was the same for everyone. Whether or not there is a correlative or causal relationship has to be determined.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 29, 2020, 01:15:07 pm
Chloroquine is nasty shit. Even if it is effective it should be last resort. Can cause permanent cardiac damage. Also on top of that so can Covid-19 apparently. Smells like a damage amplifier.
Every treatment carries an associated risk. Even being put on a ventilator carries a significant risk, because it involves being sedated, administered muscle relaxants and lots of tubes being poked into various orifices.

Quote
I think I have covid-19 at the moment. Relatively mild so far but indicators are persistent cough, fever (now gone), all over aches and pains.  I’m considering most of the company I work for had Covid-19 as well as we lost approximately half of the staff during feb with same class of symptoms. I get the feeling this will turn into something slightly worse than the usual flu season in body count even if it looks bad now. Long term economic and social damage will have a higher cost to society.

In U.K. we are at 4% of a bad flu year’s body count and the age distribution is about the same. I suspect the death rate will level out soon. I may eat my hat there but it seems a sensible assertion to make.
Covid-19 is worse than flu because considerably herd immunity already exists for influenza, whilst Covid-19 is new. If the figure of 4% of a bad flu year is correct, then that's pretty bad, because the first death here was only the 5th of March, only 20 days ago and the number of new deaths has being roughly doubling every three days.

We can only keep the number of deaths down to what we'd expect from a bad flu season by strictly adhering lockdown measures imposed upon us.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 29, 2020, 01:19:34 pm

Is it possible that it [Covid-19] was here long before we knew it?


It seems possible, but a proven good antibody test doesn't actually exist yet as far as I know, so we can't actually answer that question. 

The tests that we do have (the ones used by hospitals) only show whether a patient currently has the virus, not whether they have had it in the past (which requires the non-existent antibody test).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on March 29, 2020, 01:41:26 pm
Chloroquine is nasty shit. Even if it is effective it should be last resort. Can cause permanent cardiac damage. Also on top of that so can Covid-19 apparently. Smells like a damage amplifier.
Every treatment carries an associated risk. Even being put on a ventilator carries a significant risk, because it involves being sedated, administered muscle relaxants and lots of tubes being poked into various orifices.
Too many people have a poor grasp of the term "recovering from a disease", and treat it like it means everything works out great. The reality is recovering just means you didn't die. The long term effects are frequently quite severe.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 29, 2020, 02:09:30 pm
*About the zinc issue:
Taking zinc is highly recommended, as it has strong antiviral activity. Moreover it is being reported that chloroquine is actually successful because it is an ionophore of zinc, ie it increases its concentration in the cells.
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001176 (https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001176)

Please, you don't have to read further than the title to realise that at this stage this is irrelevant:

"Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture"

In Vitro = In Glass = "in a test tube" and In Cell Culture = "in isolated, individual money kidney epithelial cells* in a tissue culture bottle" i.e. in an isolated laboratory setting, not in a whole living organism, let alone in a controlled, double blinded clinical trial.

If one doesn't have the background to put the implicit context around a biochemistry paper so that one understands what it is saying, what it is not saying and what this means (or does not mean) for real world therapeutic applicability then this is not the time to be trying to read papers like this in isolation.

Would you react the same to a paper titled "Cl- Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Blocks the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture"? Because I can assure that the science behind that title, made up just now by me, is good. It would work, it would inhibit coronaviruses. In fact we (almost) all know that already, but if you don't know why my imaginary paper holds out no therapeutic possibilities, then you most definitely don't have the beginnings of what it takes to read the actual real paper cited and know how to interpret it in context.

The one thing that paper most emphatically does not say is:


Taking zinc is highly recommended, as it has strong antiviral activity.

That you, not the paper, have made that recommendation is unsupportable by that paper.


*Vero E6 cell line, as cited in that paper.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on March 29, 2020, 02:12:44 pm
Sure, and my own mom has asthma. But isn't it more productive to follow health care authorities' recommendations than to waste energy worrying and discussing this all day long?

It's easier for you to say, being from a country where the officials have a good idea of what they are doing.

Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 29, 2020, 02:35:34 pm
Here , some associations are presenting complaints by imprudent homicide versus the management of the COVID by the goverment : First minister: Pedro Sánchez(Falconetti) and Ccaes director Francisco Simón ( Center for Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies).

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-26%2Fdenuncia-pedro-sanchez-prevaricacion-maniestacion-8m-supremo_2518964%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-26%2Fdenuncia-pedro-sanchez-prevaricacion-maniestacion-8m-supremo_2518964%2F)

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.madridiario.es%2Fasociacion-consumidores-querella-fernando-simon (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.madridiario.es%2Fasociacion-consumidores-querella-fernando-simon)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 29, 2020, 02:48:05 pm
Everyone will try to postpone drastic actions until they run out of other options. Nobody wants to risk their arse calling Wolf. Either way they will be roasted by media. For wasting money or lives.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 29, 2020, 02:53:51 pm
Everyone will try to postpone drastic actions until they run out of other options. Nobody wants to risk their arse calling Wolf. Either way they will be roasted by media. For wasting money or lives.

Agreed. This is a very tough kind of decision to make. And we have no sure way of predicting for sure how a given virus will act and spread until it has already done so significantly - by definition, acting early would be acting on non-significant data, which no one would really agree with. It's easy to agree with early actions when it's way past early. It's not when we have little inconclusive data.

Sure some countries have waited for too long even when we started to have significant data, but it's obvious we're always going to lag by a few weeks with viruses like this. Otherwise we would end up taking drastic measures every time  people start sneezing in the streets.

Always easy to say what should have been done, rarely easy to say what should *be* done.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 29, 2020, 03:24:05 pm
Everyone will try to postpone drastic actions until they run out of other options. Nobody wants to risk their arse calling Wolf. Either way they will be roasted by media. For wasting money or lives.

Here, if the goverment is the left-wing , the media always give them pomade, when the goverment is the right-wing give them sticks. Recently, all the culprit of the management of the COVID is by the Popular Party  when they aren't in the goverment since 2018.  Literally, give disgust  to watch the TV, it seems goverment pamphlet to style of the NO-DO*.

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-Do (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-Do)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 29, 2020, 03:42:09 pm
I wonder how many fake PPEs governments are purchasing for big money..

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/29/netherlands-recalls-hundreds-of-thousands-of-defective-chinese-face-masks (https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/29/netherlands-recalls-hundreds-of-thousands-of-defective-chinese-face-masks)

80% of test kits from China show false results
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937 (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: dietert1 on March 29, 2020, 04:43:49 pm
I am lucky to live near the black forest in Germany. A river with green shores passes about 200m from our office and we can walk the dog for hours without meeting anybody. Absolutely no reason to complain. When i walk within our town for half an hour, i see 3 or 4 other persons, mostly walking dogs. Of course it depends on the weather.

In Serbia they are setting up "concentration camps" for those tested positive, because they already know people won't obey to any government orders.
Let's not stop breathing due to fear and don't eat to much..

Regards, Dieter
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on March 29, 2020, 05:19:20 pm
Everyone will try to postpone drastic actions until they run out of other options. Nobody wants to risk their arse calling Wolf. Either way they will be roasted by media. For wasting money or lives.

Agreed. This is a very tough kind of decision to make. And we have no sure way of predicting for sure how a given virus will act and spread until it has already done so significantly - by definition, acting early would be acting on non-significant data, which no one would really agree with. It's easy to agree with early actions when it's way past early. It's not when we have little inconclusive data.

Sure some countries have waited for too long even when we started to have significant data, but it's obvious we're always going to lag by a few weeks with viruses like this. Otherwise we would end up taking drastic measures every time  people start sneezing in the streets.

Always easy to say what should have been done, rarely easy to say what should *be* done.

You know, in general I would tend to agree but in this case...
Didn't our politician see what had happened in China? Even with all the mistrust for a totalitarian regime with a Great Firewall designed to prevent the spread of 'undesired' ideas, the data on the industrial production was there for all to see. But after that, didn't they see what happened to Italy?
And after that, didn't the see what happened to Spain?
And after that...

It is true that this is a very serious problem with no painless solution, but the math is pretty clear and is known to experts in math and epidemiology. To avoid a catastrophic spread of a highly contagious virus with no vaccine in sight you need to act fast on social distancing. Se for example the latest videos by Tom Rocks Maths on YT, it explains it very well.

Instead, every Country is looking at the demise of their neighbors, possibly trying to take advantage of their economic downfall, instead of deploying measures to prevent this mutual exploitation. Hollywood will make "The Big short 2", and everybody will wonder why it was allowed to happen - again.
(all of this in addition to the loss of jobs and company foreclosure due to the lockdown).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 29, 2020, 05:46:41 pm
I am lucky to live near the black forest in Germany. A river with green shores passes about 200m from our office and we can walk the dog for hours without meeting anybody. Absolutely no reason to complain.

You are lucky.

Over here, getting out for just exercising is now restricted to 1 hour and 1 km max. from your house. For people living in urban areas, that's basically just going around your block or something. And except for disabled people, in 1 hour you're going to pretty much run in circles several times in a radius of 1 km. Sweet.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on March 29, 2020, 06:06:15 pm
Instead, every Country is looking at the demise of their neighbors, possibly trying to take advantage of their economic downfall, instead of deploying measures to prevent this mutual exploitation. Hollywood will make "The Big short 2", and everybody will wonder why it was allowed to happen - again.
(all of this in addition to the loss of jobs and company foreclosure due to the lockdown).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=19&v=ArrKjxCeNHY&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=19&v=ArrKjxCeNHY&feature=emb_logo)
I agree with and thank Mr Costa
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on March 29, 2020, 06:15:13 pm
Instead, every Country is looking at the demise of their neighbors, possibly trying to take advantage of their economic downfall, instead of deploying measures to prevent this mutual exploitation.

I don't know if that's entirely true, but the situation is still enlightening. Just look at how we manage the crisis on a european level? Looks like every country is trying to fight on their own, even getting help from chinese doctors. Where's the EU? Where's the unity? Where is the european collaboration? Are EU members currently better off than the others helping the latter in any way? I dunno. I may have missed something, but lately, the only time I've heard from the EU was because of this stupid comment from a representative that drove Huawei off. That sounds certainly helpful. ::)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 29, 2020, 06:16:35 pm
I am lucky to live near the black forest in Germany. A river with green shores passes about 200m from our office and we can walk the dog for hours without meeting anybody. Absolutely no reason to complain.

You are lucky.

Over here, getting out for just exercising is now restricted to 1 hour and 1 km max. from your house. For people living in urban areas, that's basically just going around your block or something. And except for disabled people, in 1 hour you're going to pretty much run in circles several times in a radius of 1 km. Sweet.

Really, i don't understand the people that can't stay in home during a month without turning themselves crazy. I am a fortunate person  because  i live in a chalet with a forest at front.
I don't know what they would do  if they would be in submarine.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 06:20:46 pm
I don't know if that's entirely true, but the situation is still enlightening. Just look at how we manage the crisis on a european level? Looks like every country is trying to fight on their own, even getting help from chinese doctors. Where's the EU? Where's the unity? Where is the european collaboration? Are EU members currently better off than the others helping the latter in any way? I dunno. I may have missed something, but lately, the only time I've heard from the EU was because of this stupid comment from a representative that drove Huawei off. That sounds certainly helpful. ::)
There is a lot of coordination and cooperation going on, especially when it concerns medical matters. Few people are interested in making a PR show out of it right now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 06:24:57 pm
Really, i don't understand the people that can't stay in home during a month without turning themselves crazy. I am a fortunate person  because  i live in a chalet with a forest at front.
I don't know what they would do  if they would be in submarine.
Many people seem horrified to be alone with themselves or their thoughts. Every minute needs to be filled with distractions. When those distractions are gone they may not like what they find.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 29, 2020, 07:14:15 pm
Really, i don't understand the people that can't stay in home during a month without turning themselves crazy. I am a fortunate person  because  i live in a chalet with a forest at front.
I don't know what they would do  if they would be in submarine.
Many people seem horrified to be alone with themselves or their thoughts. Every minute needs to be filled with distractions. When those distractions are gone they may not like what they find.
There are many people of the opposite kind, they feel well mostly stay home in normal times, so this quarantine is not a big  deal to them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Martin72 on March 29, 2020, 07:44:36 pm
Where's the EU? Where's the unity? Where is the european collaboration?

Germany helps by flying in and treating seriously ill people from France and Italy.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 29, 2020, 07:50:15 pm
??? How many Italians out of those hundreds of ones dying every day the Germans "fly in" ?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 29, 2020, 08:04:51 pm
https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/03/28/ocr-issues-bulletin-on-civil-rights-laws-and-hipaa-flexibilities-that-apply-during-the-covid-19-emergency.html (https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/03/28/ocr-issues-bulletin-on-civil-rights-laws-and-hipaa-flexibilities-that-apply-during-the-covid-19-emergency.html)

No triage allowed? Sort of. Makes it a bit more first come first serve since older people will need more help as a function of age.
Quote
Today, the Office for Civil Rights (OCR) at the U.S Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is issuing a bulletin to ensure that entities covered by civil rights authorities keep in mind their obligations under laws and regulations that prohibit discrimination on the basis of race, color, national origin, disability, age, sex, and exercise of conscience and religion in HHS-funded programs, including in the provision of health care services during COVID-19.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 08:15:57 pm
There are many people of the opposite kind, they feel well mostly stay home in normal times, so this quarantine is not a big  deal to them.
I don't think those are the people vodka was writing about.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 29, 2020, 10:07:06 pm
Quote
No triage allowed?

My strictly non-emotional head says that if there has to be a choice, the one most likely to survive should get the goodies. I guess that in many cases, that would mean the old being discarded, and that would sure look like discrimination. Certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that choice (actually, wouldn't want to be making any choice along those lines).
Title: COVID-19 Current Situation - 28 Mar 2020
Post by: drussell on March 29, 2020, 10:10:14 pm
Since often a picture truly is worth a thousand words, I post these for reflective comparison.
I will likely update some subset of graphs once per week as the various trends become apparent.
Currently the situation in Spain appears to be the most urgently dire.

Data is taken from JHU CSEE (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19)

(https://i.imgur.com/UEW80Ki.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/sdytVmy.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/07NoGbD.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/WVjqZYp.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/dmr8XHa.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Z5PbAkV.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/jiGOrTj.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/7xgsLhw.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/XYq65ut.png)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 29, 2020, 10:24:04 pm
Remove the text and you could be looking at climate change graphs. Except for China. Although if China could work that one for climate change things could be very different!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 10:40:43 pm
My strictly non-emotional head says that if there has to be a choice, the one most likely to survive should get the goodies. I guess that in many cases, that would mean the old being discarded, and that would sure look like discrimination. Certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that choice (actually, wouldn't want to be making any choice along those lines).
It's a bit insulting to think doctors wouldn't do everything and anything to avoid having to make those choices and wouldn't optimize their resources as far as they humanly can. Triage isn't a choice but a necessity, if and when it comes to that.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 29, 2020, 10:48:27 pm
Quote
It's a bit insulting to think doctors wouldn't do everything and anything to avoid having to make those choices

Yes, it would be insulting to think that, which is why I didn't imply that or say that in any way. I'm surprised you did.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 29, 2020, 10:53:24 pm
Well the forecast in the US is 100-200K deaths and millions infected. May not be an issue everywhere but the experts seem to think it will be an issue in many places. Looking at new York de Blasio kept telling people don't worry(go to bars, restaurants, theaters, hang out) before finally shutting down the 15th. New York will probably be the worst hit city in the world in all metrics.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/28/de-blasios-coronavirus-crisis-1269480 (https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/28/de-blasios-coronavirus-crisis-1269480)

Quote
No triage allowed?

My strictly non-emotional head says that if there has to be a choice, the one most likely to survive should get the goodies. I guess that in many cases, that would mean the old being discarded, and that would sure look like discrimination. Certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that choice (actually, wouldn't want to be making any choice along those lines).


I agree. I just hope the vultures don't come out after combing through reports to find people to sue.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 11:24:43 pm
Yes, it would be insulting to think that, which is why I didn't imply that or say that in any way. I'm surprised you did.
I didn't. The original OCR release linked appears to do so.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 29, 2020, 11:29:26 pm
Well the forecast in the US is 100-200K deaths and millions infected. May not be an issue everywhere but the experts seem to think it will be an issue in many places. Looking at new York de Blasio kept telling people don't worry(go to bars, restaurants, theaters, hang out) before finally shutting down the 15th. New York will probably be the worst hit city in the world in all metrics.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/28/de-blasios-coronavirus-crisis-1269480 (https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/28/de-blasios-coronavirus-crisis-1269480)

I agree. I just hope the vultures don't come out after combing through reports to find people to sue.
Apparently Brazil's Bolsonaro doesn't believe he should be taking measures so Brazil may become New York on a massive scale.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52080830 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52080830)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tinhead on March 30, 2020, 12:19:00 am
??? How many Italians out of those hundreds of ones dying every day the Germans "fly in" ?

does it really matter? every single person counts

80% of test kits from China show false results
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937 (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937)

These tests are ok, for antibody test, as mentioned on the test instruction "Detect IgM and IgG antibodies of the Coronavirus", so yes, they almost useless in early stage. It is very unfortunate that some politicians think they can just buy something, and if that didn't work just blame others.


Btw, that's not funny, even if really rare, but still possible: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-infected-cat-found-in-belgium (https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-infected-cat-found-in-belgium)

Now try to tell your cat/dog to not go outside :(
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 30, 2020, 07:23:06 am
My strictly non-emotional head says that if there has to be a choice, the one most likely to survive should get the goodies. I guess that in many cases, that would mean the old being discarded, and that would sure look like discrimination. Certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that choice (actually, wouldn't want to be making any choice along those lines).
It's a bit insulting to think doctors wouldn't do everything and anything to avoid having to make those choices and wouldn't optimize their resources as far as they humanly can. Triage isn't a choice but a necessity, if and when it comes to that.

A small interview with an NHS respiratory consultant and ER junior that discusses this thorny issue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztrbL3IRTdo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztrbL3IRTdo)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: EEVblog on March 30, 2020, 09:35:11 am
This is the hero we need!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device)

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 30, 2020, 10:17:39 am
Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.

Actually, from the first case traced back to 12.1 to the general mass to realize sh!t happened, it took us a good 7 weeks. Things started to smell fishy on around 1.20 and quickly escalated to full lock down of Wuhan and prepared lock down of many other cities. Until all measures were taken, it took us at least 8 good weeks to respond.

The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.

So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time. This is a delay thing. As we are seeing, Italy, then some other EU countries, then the US, are using a lot of emergency laws to make things happen now, and more countries will certainly jump on the same wagon.

World leaders are alike. They tend to cover it up, try to ride it out, until things go wrong and they go berserk and declare a full scale war against it.

You are right. But some governments are also infused with a mixture of with foolishness and stupidity, as well.

This virus fiasco in Australia could have been avoided with agile and proactive government. Ours allowed several planeloads of travellers from Wuhan out onto the streets after the virus was already out of control in Wuhan. Then we have the Ruby Princess fiasco where NSW Health allowed 2,700 off the cruise ship just a couple of weeks ago. Today there are hundreds infected from this ship. The NSW Health hypocrite is beating his chest saying anyone caught breaking the rules would be fined. He should be put under arrest.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 30, 2020, 10:39:05 am
This is the hero we need!

After reading that article I have a sudden urge to touch my face.   :palm: 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on March 30, 2020, 11:12:51 am
Another great video on the subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFnSmcfKWQo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFnSmcfKWQo)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 30, 2020, 11:42:43 am
Looks like roll-out of ELISA tests for corona immune globulin is going well. My doctor called this morning to check on us and mentioned we can get tested after we resurface from isolation on Friday.
My insurance doesn't cover the test, but it's only €80 or so, money I'm definitely going to spend.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 30, 2020, 12:06:55 pm
Looks like roll-out of ELISA tests for corona immune globulin is going well. My doctor called this morning to check on us and mentioned we can get tested after we resurface from isolation on Friday.
My insurance doesn't cover the test, but it's only €80 or so, money I'm definitely going to spend.
That sounds good. I'd like to be tested too and hopefully these tests will become more widespread as production increases. I had a weird kind of flu earlier this month.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on March 30, 2020, 12:13:05 pm
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 30, 2020, 12:37:50 pm
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.
True. I have found this graph together with a test (but these are sold to doctors only) showing the concentration of anti-bodies versus time.

(https://www.sensitest.nl/foto/producten/g_sensitest-corona-test4.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on March 30, 2020, 12:52:21 pm
True. I have found this graph together with a test (but these are sold to doctors only) showing the concentration of anti-bodies versus time.

(https://www.sensitest.nl/foto/producten/g_sensitest-corona-test4.jpg)

That would also explain what appears to be patients getting reinfected shortly after seeming to have recovered, even though experts consider that highly unlikely. (Testing errors, of course, can also explain it.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 30, 2020, 12:58:41 pm
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.

Depends on which kind of antibody type it is designed to detect. For our purposes we're only interested in immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG).

IgM forms rapidly during an infection, IgG comes along a bit later. Eventually both types ramp up to the sort of levels that could be detected by an ELISA test. After an infection circulating levels of IgM fall. IgG level may continue to peak after an infection and then start to fall. Both types of antibody persist to some extent after an infection and form part of the 'memory' of the immune system. Eventually the IgG levels will be higher than the IgM levels.  IgG tends to be very antigen specific, some IgM may respond to antigens other than the antigen they are specific to - indeed IgM has been observed to respond to antigens that a host has never been exposed to.

So, an IgM detecting test is good for detecting a recent infection, not so good for one in the past. It may be a bit non-specific - so it's good for telling you if someone will have an immune response to a disease, not so good for telling you if they have actually had a specific disease.

An IgG based test is nice and specific, but won't show results as soon as an IgM based test would.

So, it's all going to depend on how a particular test has been formulated as to: How soon after infection it will give results, how specific it is to the viral strain that it is testing against. Becuase of this you should most definately thoroughly read the specific instructions on the specific test you have if you manage to get hold of one. If the instructions are in Chinglish, lord help you.

No ELISA field test is going to be sensitive enough to detect an infection before it has largely or completely run its course. ELISA tests are finicky and are quite difficult to make simultaneously sensitive, reliable and robust enough for use outside laboratory conditions.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 30, 2020, 01:58:26 pm
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.

The self tests are "lateral flow" tests. They're not very sensitive, but cheap. The ELISA tests being rolled out now over here are lab tests. You provide a blood sample and get a result a few days later. For early diagnoses, the PCR tests are still the only option.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 30, 2020, 02:13:47 pm
This is US-specific, with state-by-state forecasts, but I found it very interesting. Note the disclaimer in the write-up that it is "predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week".

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths (http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on March 30, 2020, 02:20:02 pm
The self tests are "lateral flow" tests. They're not very sensitive, but cheap. The ELISA tests being rolled out now over here are lab tests. You provide a blood sample and get a result a few days later. For early diagnoses, the PCR tests are still the only option.

The self tests that were briefly sold here in the US (before the FDA shut them down) are just self collection tests, where you mail the sample to a lab for a PCR test.  I think those will be available before lateral flow tests.

I've read that Cepheid sells some of their PCR test cartridges for around $10, so PCR tests can be pretty cheap.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 30, 2020, 03:12:27 pm
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.

The self tests are "lateral flow" tests. They're not very sensitive, but cheap. The ELISA tests being rolled out now over here are lab tests. You provide a blood sample and get a result a few days later. For early diagnoses, the PCR tests are still the only option.

Just to be clear, the lateral flow tests are ELISA tests under the hood, they use a visible colour change (or release) and are qualitative tests. The laboratory ELISA tests typically need a spectrophotometer to read and are quantitative tests, that is instead of just saying "yup, saw some antibodies" they will give a quantitative reading in something like units/ml, which also allows a bit of interpretation to be given to the results.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 30, 2020, 03:43:26 pm
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6)

Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 30, 2020, 04:00:00 pm
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6)

Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.

Doubt it. Germany has several times the population, so even if the tests/million is higher, the number of people available to be infected is smaller. Especially if you factor in the much higher population density in Germany. Australia is BIG.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on March 30, 2020, 08:19:52 pm
That would also explain what appears to be patients getting reinfected shortly after seeming to have recovered, even though experts consider that highly unlikely. (Testing errors, of course, can also explain it.)
As far as I understand many of those cases occurred in China where people stuffed themselves full of suppressants, appeared to recover and went about their business and crashed again later. This may have triggered the instituted ban on suppressants.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 30, 2020, 10:40:31 pm
Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support.  :palm:
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 30, 2020, 11:13:57 pm
Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.

Actually, from the first case traced back to 12.1 to the general mass to realize sh!t happened, it took us a good 7 weeks. Things started to smell fishy on around 1.20 and quickly escalated to full lock down of Wuhan and prepared lock down of many other cities. Until all measures were taken, it took us at least 8 good weeks to respond.

The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.

So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time. This is a delay thing. As we are seeing, Italy, then some other EU countries, then the US, are using a lot of emergency laws to make things happen now, and more countries will certainly jump on the same wagon.

World leaders are alike. They tend to cover it up, try to ride it out, until things go wrong and they go berserk and declare a full scale war against it.

You are right. But some governments are also infused with a mixture of with foolishness and stupidity, as well.

This virus fiasco in Australia could have been avoided with agile and proactive government. Ours allowed several planeloads of travellers from Wuhan out onto the streets after the virus was already out of control in Wuhan.
Then we have the Ruby Princess fiasco where NSW Health allowed 2,700 off the cruise ship just a couple of weeks ago. Today there are hundreds infected from this ship.
The NSW Health hypocrite is beating his chest saying anyone caught breaking the rules would be fined. He should be put under arrest.


"some governments" ??!   :D


"Today there are hundreds infected from this ship." 
so it wasn't bali belly from gorging 24/7  on reheated 'all you can eat'  ship food ?   :scared: :scared:


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on March 31, 2020, 02:41:43 am
Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support.  :palm:
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.

Really do not understand why are you so agitated about this ?  :-//

Beside, these are for humanity, the more aids or helps to Italy, the merrier right ?

Cuba, China and Russia are so far away from Italy, all logistics and personnels need to be air transported, while France is just a neighboring to Italy across land border, how hard is that to imagine this ?

Besides, just masks ? How about other medical supplies and the most important and valued aid, medical teams ?

Politically, these damn communist countries that you despise, while doing their chess pounding which imo they deserved it, they are also doing you a favor in disguised, which is sending a clear message to the so called brotherhood of Euro countries  ::) , that among brothers should help each other "more" than strangers/adversaries that live far-far away across the globe.

Remember, Italy at earlier period was ignored and abandoned after begged and cried for help and aid to the Euro countries, and your beloved country Dutch is among those who explicitly denied to help, even to send just medical supplies, let alone "human" medical teams.

Kids these days.  :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BrianHG on March 31, 2020, 04:19:22 am
3Blue1Brown on how to simulate an epidemic: (Mar 27th)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: rf-loop on March 31, 2020, 04:23:46 am
Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.


The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.

So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time.

Imo not.  :-X
I have tracked lot of data here in China when I have been whole self quarantine and now partially self quarantined over 2 months and also some other knowledge about this situation :-X
It looks like there is NOT second wave started at all inside mainland China.
Yes, statistics looks like show it but it is, it need look bit more carefully. (Yes I also follow my nationality country Finland and some other European newspapers and some other public media and seen lot of fake news - some times downright shameful)

If look some public  statistics, example https://news.ifeng.com/c/special/7tPlDSzDgVk (https://news.ifeng.com/c/special/7tPlDSzDgVk)
It looks like there is new wave starting (attached image).

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/?action=dlattach;attach=960230;image)

If look more carefully what is inside this...
There in graph (red) is all inside whole China including Taiwan, HK and Macao. and including also COVID-19 imported cases from outside (mainly some chinese peoples returning back to china from epidemic area.)
All these goes to controlled quarantine/isolation before can enter inside. If not sick, after 14 days and tests they are free to go, and sick peoples goes to isolation and as long they are positive they stay inside controlled isolation. Previously there was also foreign peoples coming to work or other purposes via quarantine etc but some days ago this road is closed. If some foreigner have already visa or residence permit and he is outside, no way to come in now. Of course there is some very special cases but lets not count these.)

Problem is that most foreign media look only these statistics without looking inside data.

If we take Taiwan, HK, Macao out from this trend and overseas income to mainland China there is not  any sign about second wave. (very roughly my blue line)

But it need very perfect and careful work to keep this situation.
Now after Hubei area is nearly opened and also Wuhan it need really  carefully detect every possible new case and trace all possibly infected with this case. Yes, China can do it.
If look Hubei what is not included in this graph. Last week Hubei area do not have any new cases, and if look two week only total 2 new cases.  And situation is very different if look foreign countries. China can track peoples and most other countries can not. This have been extremely big advantage in this COVID case. It have saved tens of thousand dead or even more.

Then if look diagnosed cases dead rate. Many news wonder example Germany low dead rate.
No one talk dead rate in China. If we count Hubei and whole other part of country separately (it need look separately because they are separated totally)

In whole Hubei, dead rate is 4.7%.
Wuhan alone, (inside Hubei area) original epicenter of COVID, there dead rate is 5.1% 
Hubei without Wuhan 3.6%
It can roughly say this whole Hubei area population is 60 M and some rough estimate about Wuhan city, 11M

Then whole rest of China 1368 M ppl
In this area hospitals have been in nearly normal load, not at all saturated. Also amount of tests have been well enough.

Dead rate is now 0.86% (Whole China without well isolated Hubei area. Note, Hubei isolation is just now changing and going to normal free but naturally under full control so that if any signs about new wave it can stop before it even start. )
And this is now in situation where most of sick peoples have died or survived and very small amount of new cases. Dead rate have delay. In China situation is nearly static now but in many other countries amount of COVID cases is fast rising phase and dead rate naturally rise delayed.

In Germany it looks now 0.85% (but COVID situation is fast moving there).  So why this is so big wonder in western media, in China this is normal rate from confirmed cases.  Is it so that Germany is only country who follow WHO test recommendations after WHO was learned its power in China. (Yes also Singapore and S-Korea looks like do enough tests for detect and track the chains of infections for stop them.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 31, 2020, 04:37:09 am
rf-loop, good to hear you are safe and well still in China. We have not spoken lately as I knew you would be cooped up safely.  :)
Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown and we have just 1 dead and some 650+ currently infected. 80 odd recovered.
Infections have slowed a little but it is too soon to say it is a trend and luckily most infections are related to returning travellers and not in the general community.

Stay safe friend.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr.B on March 31, 2020, 05:16:14 am
...
Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown ...

Sorry @tautech... Source?
I cannot find any info in mainstream media.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 31, 2020, 05:22:48 am
...
Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown ...

Sorry @tautech... Source?
I cannot find any info in mainstream media.
Wife heard it on the news today but not heard any confirmation on the 6pm news.  :-//
Maybe she needs a hearing test.  :box:

I’ll edit if there’s nothing further about it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mzzj on March 31, 2020, 05:23:48 am
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6)

Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.

Doubt it. Germany has several times the population, so even if the tests/million is higher, the number of people available to be infected is smaller. Especially if you factor in the much higher population density in Germany. Australia is BIG.
99% of Australia is  barren wasteland with close to zero population. Population density is not that much different in areas where people actually live.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on March 31, 2020, 07:06:01 am
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6)

Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.

Doubt it. Germany has several times the population, so even if the tests/million is higher, the number of people available to be infected is smaller. Especially if you factor in the much higher population density in Germany. Australia is BIG.
99% of Australia is  barren wasteland with close to zero population. Population density is not that much different in areas where people actually live.
While you have a point, 99% is an exaggeration, nor does that change the raw population discrepancy. So I'm going to have to disagree with you there:
https://chartingtransport.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/au-eu-ca-nz-population-weighted-density.png (https://chartingtransport.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/au-eu-ca-nz-population-weighted-density.png)
One can drive from anywhere to anywhere in Germany in 8 hours or less, not to mention the 7 or 8 Schengen countries that have land borders. Australia only has sea or air borders, and driving times are often measured in days, not hours. Natural isolation, in other words.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Muttley Snickers on March 31, 2020, 07:41:41 am
In the State of Victoria we have just had a ban placed on the purchase of firearms and ammunition due to a dramatic increase in the number of people buying ammunition and applying for a Permit to Purchase, damn lucky I am already geared up.   ;)

And a note: This is just a heads up and not an invitation to start a conversation on firearms, discussions about firearms are not welcome on this forum.

Sorry I couldn't provide a better reference than the one linked below.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-pandemic-prompts-victoria-to-ban-sales-of-guns-and ammunition/ar-BB11VGOz (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-pandemic-prompts-victoria-to-ban-sales-of-guns-and ammunition/ar-BB11VGOz)

 
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: peter-h on March 31, 2020, 07:49:59 am
This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on March 31, 2020, 08:20:12 am
One can drive from anywhere to anywhere in Germany in 8 hours or less, not to mention the 7 or 8 Schengen countries that have land borders. Australia only has sea or air borders, and driving times are often measured in days, not hours. Natural isolation, in other words.

True, but people in Australia do travel and it doesn't take much to spark an outbreak in the densely populated areas.

But I was going for something else, not for absolute numbers: Australia, like Germany, is more likely to exhibit the true fatality rate in reporting, since due to the massive testing they're likely to also detect the mild cases and add them to the statistic early.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 31, 2020, 08:22:20 am
Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support.  :palm:
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.
You are comparing apples to oranges. Cuba sent doctors, Russia sent doctors and disinfecting equipment and personnel. Any boots on the ground from France?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on March 31, 2020, 08:40:03 am
The French are still doing the paperwork  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BU508A on March 31, 2020, 08:52:53 am
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUPIiPZU8AAxqav.jpg)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 31, 2020, 08:55:21 am
This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.

There are no strong people in the UK, all fat? In numbers I'm obese, in life I'm not... Where would that leave me?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on March 31, 2020, 09:13:25 am
This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.

There are no strong people in the UK, all fat? In numbers I'm obese, in life I'm not... Where would that leave me?

BMI is the most stupid number ever invented. It presumes very low muscle and bone mass i.e. it presumes that most of the body weight comes from body fat..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on March 31, 2020, 01:05:20 pm
A bit of light entertainment about the truth of the corona virus brought to you by our sponsors the local chapter of the  Illuminati :-DD...

An ex-electronics engineer acquaintance, whom I went to uni with decades ago, left the profession because "electronics engineers are puppets of the Jewish run banks". He was a good analogue designer but always lacked common sense. He left Melbourne a couple of years ago and became a prepper in a remote part of Victoria because "everyone else is going to be killed in the impending apocalypse". He is a strong Illuminati believer which raises the flag that he is of unsound mind.

He called me about a week ago and said he was enlightened with "clues" about the corona virus. Here is what he said:
1. The Chinese government engineered this virus and unleashed as a weapon against the West.
2. The Illuminati and the Chinese government are in a joint venture to decrease the world population from 7 billion to 500 million. They are carefully regulating the virus spread to meet their target number within two years.
3. The Chinese government wants to kill their old people because they are past their use-by date and are too expensive to keep alive.
4. The governments of the world want everyone to use tap and go debit cards cards rather than using cash to avoid the virus. This is a ploy for the governments to outlaw cash and only allow electronic transfers, so that the Illuminati will eventually control everyone using one-world government.
5. The governments will eventually use their military means to cull the excess populations.

Could he be right :-//?

Seriously, this guy is a harmless lunatic with few friends, but he is not dangerous unlike some Illuminati believers like  James Gargsoulas.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on March 31, 2020, 02:12:59 pm
A bit of light entertainment about the truth of the corona virus brought to you by our sponsors the local chapter of the  Illuminati :-DD...

An ex-electronics engineer acquaintance, whom I went to uni with decades ago, left the profession because "electronics engineers are puppets of the Jewish run banks". He was a good analogue designer but always lacked common sense. He left Melbourne a couple of years ago and became a prepper in a remote part of Victoria because "everyone else is going to be killed in the impending apocalypse". He is a strong Illuminati believer which raises the flag that he is of unsound mind.

He called me about a week ago and said he was enlightened with "clues" about the corona virus. Here is what he said:
1. The Chinese government engineered this virus and unleashed as a weapon against the West.
2. The Illuminati and the Chinese government are in a joint venture to decrease the world population from 7 billion to 500 million. They are carefully regulating the virus spread to meet their target number within two years.
3. The Chinese government wants to kill their old people because they are past their use-by date and are too expensive to keep alive.
4. The governments of the world want everyone to use tap and go debit cards cards rather than using cash to avoid the virus. This is a ploy for the governments to outlaw cash and only allow electronic transfers, so that the Illuminati will eventually control everyone using one-world government.
5. The governments will eventually use their military means to cull the excess populations.

Could he be right :-//?

Seriously, this guy is a harmless lunatic with few friends, but he is not dangerous unlike some Illuminati believers like  James Gargsoulas.

He doesn't sound too different from many mainstream politicians these days...   :-//
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 31, 2020, 02:51:16 pm
Here in the US recently there has been (or will be) some reconsideration regarding the use of masks.

Quote
The US’s top infectious disease expert said that a broad use of masks is being considered during the coronavirus pandemic, once the supply of masks is sufficient for health care workers.

This likely doesn't come as a surprise to many.  Personally, the phrase "a mask doesn't help" has been on my shit-that-stupid-people-say list since the beginning--along with "it's just the flu."
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: dietert1 on March 31, 2020, 03:15:08 pm
We can see in our neighborhood that human civilization has turned into something very fragile. Many people are following some strange fantasies and feelings instead of using their brains. I'd guess on the long run about 30 % of the population would rather commit suicide instead of adapting to the new situation. My wife even proposed calling police because of obvious violations of social isolation rules.
Unless those people stop, we will be completely broke before resolving anything. I am waiting for the German government to tell everybody that the shutdown will last until the day when nobody gets tested positive. Or a week after that to be sure. Right now the number of new positives is decreasing, yet still several thousand per day. A clear indication of strong virus activity.

Regards, Dieter
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on March 31, 2020, 03:32:22 pm
We can see in our neighborhood that human civilization has turned into something very fragile. Many people are following some strange fantasies and feelings instead of using their brains. I'd guess on the long run about 30 % of the population would rather commit suicide instead of adapting to the new situation.

Regards, Dieter

What morale so low, you only bring a week on "isolation".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 31, 2020, 03:40:29 pm
Quote
Personally, the phrase "a mask doesn't help"

If you read back you'll see that I am a 'mask is better than nowt' person, but I have to take task with you on the grounds that your quote isn't what the other side's argument is. What they are (or were) suggesting is that a mask can make matters worse. Sure, it might work a bit, but in doing so it increases the risk of infection (via your fiddling with it) so overall it is better not to have one.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 31, 2020, 03:47:52 pm
This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.

It doesn't say that. You're just jumping on one number in isolation, that may have no linkage to mortality, without taking in the whole picture. Being old has a much bigger effect in that table, being male versus female has a similar effect to having a BMI > 30 versus BMI < 30 - it doesn't say who is young and fat, old and fat, male and skinny etc. You didn't come to the conclusion "being male is really bad", but it has has much (or as little) evidential support present in that paper.

For those that case about these things: n=86 for age, 86 for gender, 79 for BMI, 82 for needs support with daily living needs, 83 for severe co-morbidities, and 82 for whether advanced respiratory support was provided. (i.e. it's obvious that the base data set is (1) small, (2) a total mess or n would be the same for all tabulated outcomes). It's also heavily qualified in other ways, i.e. an admittedly biased sample.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: TerminalJack505 on March 31, 2020, 04:02:05 pm
If you read back you'll see that I am a 'mask is better than nowt' person, but I have to take task with you on the grounds that your quote isn't what the other side's argument is. What they are (or were) suggesting is that a mask can make matters worse. Sure, it might work a bit, but in doing so it increases the risk of infection (via your fiddling with it) so overall it is better not to have one.

My main point is that the 'experts' are now moving the goalposts so just "hide and watch" (as the saying goes) as their arguments will change regarding the use of face masks.

The problem is that they will now need to explain why they lied to the public to begin with.  (Let's face it, they knew better all along.)  They sacrificed their credibility because of it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 31, 2020, 04:26:17 pm
Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support.  :palm:
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.
You are comparing apples to oranges. Cuba sent doctors, Russia sent doctors and disinfecting equipment and personnel. Any boots on the ground from France?
I wrote 'face masks'!  :palm:
And what are a couple of dozen doctors and nurses going to accomplish compared to the hundreds of thousands of Italian health care workers and military personel anyway? Less than a drop in a bucket. It is pure propaganda to push a wedge into the EU.

BMI is the most stupid number ever invented. It presumes very low muscle and bone mass i.e. it presumes that most of the body weight comes from body fat..
But it doesn't mean it is meaningless. It is a good measure for the average person. There are other methods too with their pros and cons. AFAIK the WHO has a method which uses the circumfence of your waiste, sex and age to say you are overweight or not.
Dutch doctors also noted that most of the people in the ICU due to Covid19 are overweight.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 31, 2020, 06:49:34 pm
US Confirmed: 174k
US Population: 327m
Percentage: 0.05%

World Confirmed: 826k
World Population: 7.53b
Percentage: 0.01%

For perspective.  Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected. 

100x?
1000x?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 31, 2020, 07:04:38 pm
US Confirmed: 174k
US Population: 327m
Percentage: 0.05%

World Confirmed: 826k
World Population: 7.53b
Percentage: 0.01%

For perspective.  Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected. 
Rest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on March 31, 2020, 07:13:48 pm
Why I am so angry at so much of my country’s top leadership for the Covid-19 response, why I believe that I am right to be angry and why I am not going to forget what has happened and what has not happened.

The top leadership ignored and over-ruled the scientists at the earliest stages and when actions would have had the greatest impact. National security SMEs were also ignored and over-ruled.

During the early stages the public was given bizarrely inaccurate messages (somehow “misinformation” doesn’t do it justice) from the highest levels of Government. The misinformation persists and has, again, created division in the country that costs lives and money.

Every dollar spent early would have produced a huge savings in just a few months. Instead of that realization, we saw a refusal to fight and a willful ignorance so profound that it is mind-numbing.

Because of asymptomatic infectors in addition to incubation time infectors, massive testing is required, not optional. Still, to this day we are deficient in testing and private companies, not the Federal Government, has taken the lead all along.

When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.

The US has a Defense Production Act which, essentially, gives power to the Federal Government to direct industry to produce essential goods and services. It was only used in one case so far and only a few days ago (GM, respirators/ventilators) and Ford had already begun working in the area.

We had a long period to prepare and act while watching the epidemic in China. Instead of gearing up for the inevitable (the one that scientists had been expecting) the top leadership engaged in buffoonery which has led to extant dumfukery.

As death counts exceed notable historical events of war, we see the top leadership spin events as “nobody saw this coming”, “nobody has ever seen something like this”, “what will be, will be”, “let’s not make the treatment worse than the sickness”, “let’s give ourselves an A+ for the great job we have done”. It is unacceptably pathetic and we have a right to expect better.

As hospital ICUs are over-run, those Covid-19 death counts will be underestimated because of the impact on deaths unrelated, but that would not have occurred, if ICUs were not operating beyond capability – that is what beyond capability means.

You bet I am angry and I have a right to be. What helps me now is the knowledge that I am not going to forget this dumfukery in November, and beyond, when I vote.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on March 31, 2020, 07:30:25 pm
Why I am so angry at so much of my country’s top leadership for the Covid-19 response, why I believe that I am right to be angry and why I am not going to forget what has happened and what has not happened.....................
:-+
Money and international political posturing opportunities overrule the need to protect the population.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 31, 2020, 07:31:06 pm
If you're in new york don't forget the mayor telling everyone in early-mid march to just go about their business. Also don't forget that even in January the Chinese health authorities said there was no evidence of human-human transmission. Maybe this affected response times. Remember all those people refusing to take the social distancing seriously spreading it as if it didn't matter. Hindsight is always 20/20 and literally no leaders on the entire planet responded to this as early as we now know they should have. Look forward, not back. It's much more useful. To pretend that anybody else would have done a different job is laughable.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on March 31, 2020, 07:35:21 pm
No  good crisis should  go to waste.
Americans jumping on the bandwagon to sue China, no more no less.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/class-action-suit-against-china-coronavirus (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/class-action-suit-against-china-coronavirus)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 31, 2020, 07:36:25 pm
I'm sure that lawsuit will go really well for everyone.

Edit:  :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on March 31, 2020, 07:49:37 pm
My main point is that the 'experts' are now moving the goalposts so just "hide and watch" (as the saying goes) as their arguments will change regarding the use of face masks.
Well, the experts over here say masks are useless (do more harm than good) in the hands of the general public and people should also refrain from making masks themselves. IMHO you have to see this in the light of culture and how well people will adhere to lockdown and distancing rules. If people don't adhere to lockdown / distancing rules then wearing masks may be better than nothing. Also how and where the mask is worn matters. It is still cold in Europe so a mask will get wet in seconds when worn outside. In some places it seems they hand people masks when entering a shop and throw the mask away when exiting the shop.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on March 31, 2020, 08:04:51 pm
US Confirmed: 174k
US Population: 327m
Percentage: 0.05%

World Confirmed: 826k
World Population: 7.53b
Percentage: 0.01%

For perspective.  Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected. 
Rest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.

I'm hoping the real figure is closer to 1000 infected to 1 Confirmed.  With at least half of those asymptomatic.   

Once they have wide spread anti-body tests, they could be farming you for your blood!  Woohahahahaha!

Yea... I know... tumble weed.   Too soon.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 31, 2020, 08:28:28 pm
..
When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.

Terrorists attacking groceries..  :P

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/ (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/)

Edit:
Quote
A woman charged with terroristic threats for allegedly coughing and spitting on produce, meat and other merchandise at a Pennsylvania grocery store earlier this week was arraigned Thursday in the back of a patrol car to curb the potential threat of spreading the coronavirus.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 31, 2020, 09:13:49 pm
..
When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.

Terrorists attacking groceries..  :P

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/ (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/)

I do wish people would stop devaluing the word "terrorism" by using it in connection with things that are merely criminal/stupid/whatever. There's a big hint in the word, if the action being spoken about wasn't intended to cause capitulation by a government/group of people to some demand by inspiring fear or terror in the general populace then it's not terrorism. For something to be terrorism it has to have a political element and a "causing widespread fear" element, anything else is mere criminality. The phrase "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" could not be applied to this stupid woman.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 31, 2020, 09:17:42 pm
..
When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.

Terrorists attacking groceries..  :P

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/ (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/)

I do wish people would stop devaluing the word "terrorism" by using it in connection with things that are merely criminal/stupid/whatever. There's a big hint in the word, if the action being spoken about wasn't intended to cause capitulation by a government/group of people to some demand by inspiring fear or terror in the general populace then it's not terrorism. For something to be terrorism it has to have a political element and a "causing widespread fear" element, anything else is mere criminality. The phrase "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" could not be applied to this stupid woman.

I'm not sure about the rest of the world but around here it so far seems to be terror type charges for corona people threatening and causing havoc. I don't know if they'll revise the charges if they find something that fits better or they're just trying to make examples out of people. So while I'd agree about overuse of terror(ist/ism) it's more of a legal thing in the US right now as far as these covid cases go.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on March 31, 2020, 09:18:35 pm
Quote
For perspective.  Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected.

For perspective, "confirmed" doesn't = survived. A number of those infected are going to die.

Actually, for perspective, it turns out that 50% of the intubated infected here in the UK won't make it out of ICU.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on March 31, 2020, 09:38:50 pm
..
When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.

Terrorists attacking groceries..  :P

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/ (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/)

I do wish people would stop devaluing the word "terrorism" by using it in connection with things that are merely criminal/stupid/whatever. There's a big hint in the word, if the action being spoken about wasn't intended to cause capitulation by a government/group of people to some demand by inspiring fear or terror in the general populace then it's not terrorism. For something to be terrorism it has to have a political element and a "causing widespread fear" element, anything else is mere criminality. The phrase "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" could not be applied to this stupid woman.

I'm not sure about the rest of the world but around here it so far seems to be terror type charges for corona people threatening and causing havoc. I don't know if they'll revise the charges if they find something that fits better or they're just trying to make examples out of people. So while I'd agree about overuse of terror(ist/ism) it's more of a legal thing in the US right now as far as these covid cases go.
I suppose it could be argued that people are terrified of Covid-19, so infecting food would it would cause fear and terror. At the very least she should be done for criminal damage, but making people believe they can catch a potentially deadly illness is more serious.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on March 31, 2020, 10:02:38 pm
I suppose it could be argued that people are terrified of Covid-19, so infecting food would it would cause fear and terror. At the very least she should be done for criminal damage, but making people believe they can catch a potentially deadly illness is more serious.

You would be rightly terrified if I pointed a gun at you and threatened to kill you. Should I ever do so I'll be charged with "Assault with a firearm contrary to the Firearms Act 1968" and get five years for it, I won't be charged with a terrorist offence just because I made you and any onlookers terrified. But I'm not really talking about the tendency of prosecutors (especially US ones) to be as nasty as they can be to the accused by piling up the harshest charges they can twist to fit the case, but the tendency of everybody to misuse the word nowadays.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: AlfBaz on March 31, 2020, 10:26:16 pm
In other news Mexico is now telling Trump to hurry up with the wall ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: iMo on March 31, 2020, 10:26:49 pm
Quote
A woman charged with terroristic threats for allegedly coughing and spitting on produce, meat and other merchandise at a Pennsylvania grocery store..
..She was booked into the Luzerne County Jail with bail set at $50,000.
If it was something really "terroristic" there wouldn't be such low cost bail set, imho..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on March 31, 2020, 10:36:25 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM)

This is sort of an interesting take on the whole coronavirus thing here in the US, just ignore the title.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on March 31, 2020, 10:44:08 pm

Well, the experts over here say masks are useless (do more harm than good) in the hands of the general public and people should also refrain from making masks themselves.

IMHO you have to see this in the light of culture and how well people will adhere to lockdown and distancing rules.
If people don't adhere to lockdown / distancing rules then wearing masks may be better than nothing.
Also how and where the mask is worn matters.
It is still cold in Europe so a mask will get wet in seconds when worn outside.
In some places it seems they hand people masks when entering a shop and throw the mask away when exiting the shop.



Corona Dumbassery FAQ:

1.  Those 'good luck' masks for 'better than nothing' painting and dust use, can quickly fog up glasses too,
so idiots will likely be walking or DRIVING a vehicle half blind, and have an accident that may take them out before any deadly sniffle comes along
or worse, causing a fatality event on others, and the idiot lives, to be stupid again..  >:(


2. Hoarding toilet paper,
future generations will belly laugh  :o  :-DD :-DD  after verifying that this generation were indeed gold standard imbeciles for priority #1 stocking up on such 'vital essentials'.
It may/should become a future military gaming favorite shoot up game  'Toilet Roll Call 11'    'WC Space Invaders'    'Frugal Bowling Alley'  and so on..   :D
There's probably some great standup comedy about it by now in venues.


3. to Infinity.  TBC...  ::)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vk6zgo on March 31, 2020, 11:22:09 pm
One can drive from anywhere to anywhere in Germany in 8 hours or less, not to mention the 7 or 8 Schengen countries that have land borders. Australia only has sea or air borders, and driving times are often measured in days, not hours. Natural isolation, in other words.

True, but people in Australia do travel and it doesn't take much to spark an outbreak in the densely populated areas.

Not anymore, they don't!

Quite apart from closing the National borders, States have closed their own, with strict limits on what traffic is allowed to come through them.
More than that, Western Australia has closed off whole regions within the State, with the same strict controls over travel as with the State & National borders.

Australia has the advantage that the States are pretty much self-sufficient in fresh food supplies, which further reduces the necessity for transport to cross borders.

Quote

But I was going for something else, not for absolute numbers: Australia, like Germany, is more likely to exhibit the true fatality rate in reporting, since due to the massive testing they're likely to also detect the mild cases and add them to the statistic early.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on April 01, 2020, 01:42:43 am
Rest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.
Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems. At the extreme end they are single use:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demilitarization_Protective_Ensemble
Hazmat suits are generally both watertight and have breathing gas supplied:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazmat_suit
What the media calls "hazmat" is nothing more than common dustproof/spashproof coveralls:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleanroom_suit
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 01, 2020, 02:07:41 am
Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems.

That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vk6zgo on April 01, 2020, 02:12:38 am
Quote
For perspective.  Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected.

For perspective, "confirmed" doesn't = survived. A number of those infected are going to die.l

Ultimately, they all will, but some may take 80 or more years to do so!
Quote

Actually, for perspective, it turns out that 50% of the intubated infected here in the UK won't make it out of ICU.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vk6zgo on April 01, 2020, 02:48:32 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM)

This is sort of an interesting take on the whole coronavirus thing here in the US, just ignore the title.

The Republicans are the government---it's on them, no matter how they wriggle.

The Coalition  government in Australia, had a very slow response to the huge fires late last year, & weren't that fast this time, but  compared to the USA, their performance was stellar..

Once they set up a National Cabinet with the States, (of which many were of the other political persuasion),  things started to happen in a hurry.

From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!

From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".

The argument that they were "distracted by impeachment" doesn't wash, either, as Bill Clinton was able to deal with important issues during his impeachment, & Richard Nixon did a lot of important diplomatic work, including the beginning of normalised relations with China, & the extrication of the USA from Vietnam, whilst under the shadow of possible impeachment.

Those of my generation grew up seeing the USA as the immensely practical "can do" country, who could take on any disaster properly, & prevail.

We saw that start to come apart with Hurricane Katrina, & it is worse with this crisis.
What the hell happened, USA?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SkyMaster on April 01, 2020, 03:30:54 am
Rest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.
Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems. At the extreme end they are single use:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demilitarization_Protective_Ensemble
Hazmat suits are generally both watertight and have breathing gas supplied:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazmat_suit
What the media calls "hazmat" is nothing more than common dustproof/spashproof coveralls:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleanroom_suit

A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.

 :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 01, 2020, 03:52:35 am
Those of my generation grew up seeing the USA as the immensely practical "can do" country, who could take on any disaster properly, & prevail.

We saw that start to come apart with Hurricane Katrina, & it is worse with this crisis.
What the hell happened, USA?

the same hell that happened all over the world
that is what happens when the freedom of the market comes before the freedom and the rights of real people

so global warming, depletion of resources, destruction of the last pieces of wild areas favor the transmission of new viral strains from animals to humans, while globalization makes the spread of those (and lots of crop pests) amazingly fast and effective
at the same time most of public resources, health systems, law enforcing, instruction and so on have been under-funded for years all over the world and so are much less effective even when there is no crisis

I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just  because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD

that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now

in any case this thread was started just a bit longer than a month ago
in the meanwhile everything has changed so quickly that even what I wrote myself looks so strange now

BTW even that oddly low provisional death-rate of COVID-19 in Germany is now quickly increasing above 1%
I guess the contagion there is just later and they might have a chance to manage that better than us in Italy
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on April 01, 2020, 04:31:49 am
Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems.

That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.

A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.
A good example but have you tried buying one? Plenty of controlled products are advertised on online stores, but it doesn't mean they will sell to the general public. Also thats only the suit shell, still plenty of other components and procedures required.

Hazmat suit:
[attach=1]
Disposable cleanroom suit:
[attach=2]

Or is thing going to go the way of drones and industry will need to find some new term to actually differentiate any given industrial coverall from biological/chemical hazard protection?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on April 01, 2020, 04:39:20 am
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just  because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD

that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now

Yep, quite strange, while the Trump also offered medical supplies for Iran for fighting this virus.  ::) 

Meanwhile ... (not seen covered in Western medias or news outlets, at least yet)  :-//

-> Russian Covid-19 aid plane to US: Putin asked Trump if he needed help & he accepted, Kremlin spokesman says (https://www.rt.com/news/484623-russia-coronavirus-aid-us/)

-> WATCH Russian military plane with masks & other Covid-19 medical aid depart for US  (https://www.rt.com/russia/484639-russian-coronavirus-aid-usa/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on April 01, 2020, 04:49:24 am
The Republicans are the government---it's on them, no matter how they wriggle.

The Coalition  government in Australia, had a very slow response to the huge fires late last year, & weren't that fast this time, but  compared to the USA, their performance was stellar..

Once they set up a National Cabinet with the States, (of which many were of the other political persuasion),  things started to happen in a hurry.

From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!

From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".

The argument that they were "distracted by impeachment" doesn't wash, either, as Bill Clinton was able to deal with important issues during his impeachment, & Richard Nixon did a lot of important diplomatic work, including the beginning of normalised relations with China, & the extrication of the USA from Vietnam, whilst under the shadow of possible impeachment.

Those of my generation grew up seeing the USA as the immensely practical "can do" country, who could take on any disaster properly, & prevail.

We saw that start to come apart with Hurricane Katrina, & it is worse with this crisis.
What the hell happened, USA?

The timeline is accurate though. And the republicans are NOT the government. They have the white house and the senate but not the house. You need all 3, and some luck, to be able to do whatever you want. They stopped a budget from passing for months, they kept the stimulus bill from passing for days to add more money for special interests. I don't know exactly how australia works but here you need a super majority or some cooperation to do much. That's why Obama liked executive orders so much, it was the way around it and Republicans weren't interested in suing every time one was signed, unlike the Democrats.

His point with impeachment was that it was the only thing the Democrats were dealing with while calling the president a xenophobe for trying to lock our borders down from china. I'm not trying to defend his sort of reasoning behind why he thinks what he thinks, just thought it was an interesting video. Not too many people have been following this thing with as much focus as he has from what I can tell. It also probably helps explain some things going on here for non americans since we're now #1 in infections.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: pipe2null on April 01, 2020, 05:28:13 am
I have good news and I have bad news.

It's April Fools day...  in the middle of a pandemic.
:popcorn:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rick Law on April 01, 2020, 05:42:59 am
Those of my generation grew up seeing the USA as the immensely practical "can do" country, who could take on any disaster properly, & prevail.

We saw that start to come apart with Hurricane Katrina, & it is worse with this crisis.
What the hell happened, USA?

the same hell that happened all over the world
that is what happens when the freedom of the market comes before the freedom and the rights of real people
...
...
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just  because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD

that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now
...

In the USA, law exist that an acute patient cannot be rejected by any hospital - even private hospitals.  The patient must be stabilized and under no immediate danger before they can let the patient leave.  Law is one thing, hospitals and emergency rooms are in practice a chaotic place.  I had to visit the emergency room on a couple of occasions - had the wait-time for the 2nd visit been as long as the 1st visit, my wife would probably have died waiting.  If you can wait, they will see you - insured or not.  Died while waiting - well, happens to the insured and uninsured.

That 17 year old who died may not be in the USA.  Besides being rejected by hospital which is hard to believe, according to CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR March 26 update (with corrections)[1]), there is no confirmed deaths for anyone at or below 19 years old.  I have been monitoring.  Over the weekend, I read about an unconfirmed case of an infant, but clearly 17 year old would not be an infant.

As to the lack of equipment or tests, most irresponsible government (local, state or federal) let their stand-by equipment unreplenished.  The prior administration let the stock went near empty.  No one noticed until they need the surge-stock.

Right now, New York is our worst State in terms of cases.  Of the (approx) 160K positive cases in the USA, almost 70K are in NY state - NY City alone has over 40K cases.  According to "VENTILATOR ALLOCATION GUIDELINES" developed by New York State Department of Health in Nov 2015[2], they had practically no surge capacity.  Of the 8991 ventilators which included the 1750 intended for surge, 85% are already in use.  Simple math said they were dipping into the emergence stockpile even in normal times.  Expansion was necessary since at least 2015 as stated in the report.   I am sure many other States are in similar situation.  Spend the money on extra pension and perks instead of stocking up for rainy days.

The Federal government was in similar situation.  H1N1 (swine flu), Ebola, (etc.) used up plenty of stock and was not replenished.

With the Federal Government's declaration of emergency, it gave the Feds the power (DPA) to force industries to produce certain products needed by the nation to deal with the emergency.  Many corporations already responded without DPA, but at least one did need the influence of DPA before getting moving.  So, we have plenty of manufacturing capacity coming on-line, soon.  Trump is rather generous - with expectation that we will soon be able to make more than we need, he is offering those anticipated excesses to help others.  As to it could be too late then, well, that is as fast as it can happen.  If we don't need it by then, all the better for having recovered from an emergency sooner rather than later.

As to "same hell that happened all over the world..."  Yeah, profit before the "good of others" is all over the world.  I am however sure it is just being profit-driven that brought "hell over the world".  Case and point: the selfish people who just want their "spring break at the beach" risk infecting others just so they have a good time.  Clearly, "spring break" has no profit in it for the spring-breakers.  So, this is my opinion: I think most kids (most people) now are a bit too self-centered and a bit too soft (lacking grit or the ability to deal with dirty/difficult circumstances) to deal with reality.  They want freedom, but how many are willing to bleed to defend it?

References:

[1] CDC MMWR March 26 update
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm)

[2] "VENTILATOR ALLOCATION GUIDELINES"
developed by New York State Department of Health
https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf (https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rick Law on April 01, 2020, 06:10:51 am
while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing

That's why I said before not to worry too much. Once the politicians realized their ideology is no match to nature's power, things will go to the good direction pretty quickly.
In a week or two, the US will start to see decreasing daily new cases too.

USA wide is just over two weeks but differs greatly depending on State.  According to University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projection, the USA cumulative is April 16 peak.

By state:
Vermont, NY, NJ are the earliest peaking April 9;
Michigan, Connecticut, Louisiana peaks April 10;
skipping to number 23...
Georgia, Mississippi,North Carolina peaks April 22.
Last to peak are Maryland on May 14 and Virginia on May 17.

So, we will be sweating it out on different dates...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on April 01, 2020, 10:26:20 am
...and the EEVblog member body bag and or life support machine count so far is.. ? :-//

same as last week or less?  :popcorn:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 01, 2020, 10:41:41 am
I think I've had it. On tail end now. No body bag required yet.  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Marco on April 01, 2020, 12:17:25 pm
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just  because he could not afford to pay the hospital

If I went to a hospital emergency room for something they deemed a non emergency, I would be billed too. I always have the option to get seen by a doctor any way, so in that respect I'm better off, but there's a good chance I'd go to the general practitioners office instead to save myself a significant amount of money ... and if very unlucky collapse in the street.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SerieZ on April 01, 2020, 12:44:55 pm
I have been following the numbers on a website called worldometer and the only largely affected country I feel is being accurately presenting numbers is Spain.
They also have the largest amount of people in Critical Condition.
I cannot help but feel that the other countries, including my own, are being either very arbitrary, out of resources or unwilling to present correct numbers.

The word feel has been underlines to emphasize that I obviously cannot confirm the numbers myself.
I am curios what you people think.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on April 01, 2020, 01:03:45 pm
Of course numbers will be estimations, nobody is doing large scale testing.

A friend of mine ended up in hospital twice, and wasn't tested. His symptoms weren't particularly characteristic and nobody directly told him "that's because of the virus". But when asking why he wasn't tested he was answered "well we're pretty sure you have it anyway".

The measures put in place are designed more as a general "anybody might have it, prevent them from transmitting it further" than targeted efforts, which IMO makes sense due to the long incubation period completely blurring everything so there isn't much to gain by paying for tests.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on April 01, 2020, 01:32:07 pm
...and the EEVblog member body bag and or life support machine count so far is.. ? :-//

same as last week or less?  :popcorn:

How would we know? Does the afterlife have an internet connection?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on April 01, 2020, 01:35:35 pm
I have been following the numbers on a website called worldometer and the only largely affected country I feel is being accurately presenting numbers is Spain.
accurately?? 

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-04-01/mayor-residencia-espana-ume-cadaveres-camaras-coronavirus_2527956/ (https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2020-04-01/mayor-residencia-espana-ume-cadaveres-camaras-coronavirus_2527956/)
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metropoliabierta.com%2Fdistritos%2Fsant-andreu%2F31-muertos-residencia-ancianos-sant-andreu_25844_102.html (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.metropoliabierta.com%2Fdistritos%2Fsant-andreu%2F31-muertos-residencia-ancianos-sant-andreu_25844_102.html)
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elmundo.es%2Fespana%2F2020%2F04%2F01%2F5e8487d0fc6c83996f8b45f4.html (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elmundo.es%2Fespana%2F2020%2F04%2F01%2F5e8487d0fc6c83996f8b45f4.html)

How did they die,with or by COVID19?   I answer you, anybody make autopsies to these deaths. Therefore, they aren't counted like deaths by  covid19  else like "natural cause".



Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 01, 2020, 01:56:13 pm
Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems.

That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.

Dual use = export controlled. People around here buy dual use things all the time, fast FPGAs, thermal cameras. A couple of weeks back I had to complete an end user certificate to import a very ordinary FPGA board from the US because it is classified as dual use. Buying similar things domestically  without importing them happens with no paper work at all. I note that the DSGL list you pointed to includes full face respirators in the same category - are you really trying to tell us that your government treats these as "highly restricted" and one could not wander down to the local supplier of equipment to car resprayers and just pick one off the shelf? You certainly could here, I have done.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 01, 2020, 02:02:29 pm
...and the EEVblog member body bag and or life support machine count so far is.. ? :-//

same as last week or less?  :popcorn:

How would we know? Does the afterlife have an internet connection?

Must have, I've seen many posts on the Internet from people who are obviously brain dead.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 01, 2020, 02:05:59 pm
In the USA, law exist that an acute patient cannot be rejected by any hospital - even private hospitals.  The patient must be stabilized and under no immediate danger before they can let the patient leave.  Law is one thing, hospitals and emergency rooms are in practice a chaotic place.  I had to visit the emergency room on a couple of occasions - had the wait-time for the 2nd visit been as long as the 1st visit, my wife would probably have died waiting.  If you can wait, they will see you - insured or not.  Died while waiting - well, happens to the insured and uninsured.

That 17 year old who died may not be in the USA.  Besides being rejected by hospital which is hard to believe, according to CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR March 26 update (with corrections)[1]), there is no confirmed deaths for anyone at or below 19 years old.  I have been monitoring.  Over the weekend, I read about an unconfirmed case of an infant, but clearly 17 year old would not be an infant.

As to the lack of equipment or tests, most irresponsible government (local, state or federal) let their stand-by equipment unreplenished.  The prior administration let the stock went near empty.  No one noticed until they need the surge-stock.

Right now, New York is our worst State in terms of cases.  Of the (approx) 160K positive cases in the USA, almost 70K are in NY state - NY City alone has over 40K cases.  According to "VENTILATOR ALLOCATION GUIDELINES" developed by New York State Department of Health in Nov 2015[2], they had practically no surge capacity.  Of the 8991 ventilators which included the 1750 intended for surge, 85% are already in use.  Simple math said they were dipping into the emergence stockpile even in normal times.  Expansion was necessary since at least 2015 as stated in the report.   I am sure many other States are in similar situation.  Spend the money on extra pension and perks instead of stocking up for rainy days.

The Federal government was in similar situation.  H1N1 (swine flu), Ebola, (etc.) used up plenty of stock and was not replenished.

With the Federal Government's declaration of emergency, it gave the Feds the power (DPA) to force industries to produce certain products needed by the nation to deal with the emergency.  Many corporations already responded without DPA, but at least one did need the influence of DPA before getting moving.  So, we have plenty of manufacturing capacity coming on-line, soon.  Trump is rather generous - with expectation that we will soon be able to make more than we need, he is offering those anticipated excesses to help others.  As to it could be too late then, well, that is as fast as it can happen.  If we don't need it by then, all the better for having recovered from an emergency sooner rather than later.

As to "same hell that happened all over the world..."  Yeah, profit before the "good of others" is all over the world.  I am however sure it is just being profit-driven that brought "hell over the world".  Case and point: the selfish people who just want their "spring break at the beach" risk infecting others just so they have a good time.  Clearly, "spring break" has no profit in it for the spring-breakers.  So, this is my opinion: I think most kids (most people) now are a bit too self-centered and a bit too soft (lacking grit or the ability to deal with dirty/difficult circumstances) to deal with reality.  They want freedom, but how many are willing to bleed to defend it?

References:

[1] CDC MMWR March 26 update
[url]https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm[/url] ([url]https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm[/url])

[2] "VENTILATOR ALLOCATION GUIDELINES"
developed by New York State Department of Health
[url]https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf[/url] ([url]https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf[/url])

A small and specific set of people seems to pick up on a lot of inflammatory news without credible sources. They seem to either be in it to stir unrest or lost their cool in the face of a crisis. This turns out to be a great time to evaluate who you can depend on in a crisis. Many people turn out to be surprisingly practical or cool-headed, while some just turn to mush or panic to the point and becoming a huge liability.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 01, 2020, 02:17:12 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM)

This is sort of an interesting take on the whole coronavirus thing here in the US, just ignore the title.
When the guy starts by listing who to blame you know you're in for a shit show. It's a virus, a force of nature. No one responded wholly appropriately and no one could really know how so fair dinkum. Making this into a partisan or nationalist thing is backwards. How about we omit the playground justice and fix this problem best we can?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 01, 2020, 02:27:40 pm
...and the EEVblog member body bag and or life support machine count so far is.. ? :-//

same as last week or less?  :popcorn:
Look at the stats and see who hasn't been active for a couple of days.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on April 01, 2020, 02:42:57 pm
I'm dead, but only on the inside. :-//
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 01, 2020, 03:02:11 pm
This turns out to be a great time to evaluate who you can depend on in a crisis. Many people turn out to be surprisingly practical or cool-headed, while some just turn to mush or panic to the point and becoming a huge liability.

Well, I think it's a pretty well known phenomenon that bad times bring out the best in some people and the worst in some other people.

When the guy starts by listing who to blame you know you're in for a shit show. It's a virus, a force of nature. No one responded wholly appropriately and no one could really know how so fair dinkum. Making this into a partisan or nationalist thing is backwards. How about we omit the playground justice and fix this problem best we can?

As far as the partisan and nationalist types getting things backwards that's hardly surprising. When you are a bit backwards yourself, and have belief systems that hinge more on doctrine and less on fact (more so than most other people's grasp of the world does) you're bound to get things backward.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Zero999 on April 01, 2020, 03:24:17 pm
This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.

There are no strong people in the UK, all fat? In numbers I'm obese, in life I'm not... Where would that leave me?

BMI is the most stupid number ever invented. It presumes very low muscle and bone mass i.e. it presumes that most of the body weight comes from body fat..
True, BMI is just a rule of thumb, but it's still true that most people with a BMI >30 are fat rather than muscular and I doubt any of the patients were body builders.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 01, 2020, 03:27:54 pm
Well, I think it's a pretty well known phenomenon that bad times bring out the best in some people and the worst in some other people.

As far as the partisan and nationalist types getting things backwards that's hardly surprising. When you are a bit backwards yourself, and have belief systems that hinge more on doctrine and less on fact (more so than most other people's grasp of the world does) you're bound to get things backward.
The benefit of the current situation is that it's so wide scale and also that many people aren't really directly involved. They just need to sit tight and behave, but there's already enough pressure applied to reveal the cracks. Though I won't deny a significant amount of people are going through hell, for many intents and purposes it can be almost considered a dry run for a "real" disaster.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 01, 2020, 03:29:22 pm
For pet owners: Harbin vet science center, the only other Chinese P4 lab, has published a research on domesticated animal carrying the virus.

Put it simple, cats and ferrets can spread the virus, dogs can rarely spread the virus, and other common domesticated animals like pigs, chickens, ducks, etc., cannot get infected and spread the virus.

However, considering your pets only stay in close contact with your family, if it gets the virus, it must have gotten it from your family, so there is no need to be scared of your cats.

As for feral and wild cats, it's better to stay away from them for a while.
It sounds like "outside cats" could bring it home if the reported is true. Do you have a link? This is the kind of information everyone wants to triple check before relaying it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 01, 2020, 04:00:15 pm
I'm dead, but only on the inside. :-//
The upside is that the smell stays inside too  8)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 01, 2020, 04:08:38 pm
True, BMI is just a rule of thumb, but it's still true that most people with a BMI >30 are fat rather than muscular and I doubt any of the patients were body builders.
Not to mention that a large muscle mass stresses the body like fat does in many ways. The heart still has to work harder to deal with the added weight and requirements, joints are still stressed more and the list goes on. It's better to have a healthy heart than a fatty heart but muscle mass still adds stress.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nominal Animal on April 01, 2020, 04:50:04 pm
I'm dead, but only on the inside. :-//
The upside is that the smell stays inside too  8)
Definitely not when I eat beans or onions or cabbage :-[
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on April 01, 2020, 05:02:47 pm
When the guy starts by listing who to blame you know you're in for a shit show. It's a virus, a force of nature. No one responded wholly appropriately and no one could really know how so fair dinkum. Making this into a partisan or nationalist thing is backwards. How about we omit the playground justice and fix this problem best we can?

That's sort of his shtick. I usually don't pay attention to much of his commentary stuff as I commonly disagree. Sometimes I do find it pretty funny how worked up he gets. He's basically a hippy who refuses to pick a side but also gets very worked up and assigns blame. That's been less apparent in some of his coronavirus videos.

Edit: I've been watching and reading news a lot since I can't do a lot else. Don't worry this isn't the only place I get news from(yes, this one was more 40/60 news/commentary if I remember right), it's just the funniest one and has an accurate timeline of what happened here.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mrflibble on April 01, 2020, 05:55:49 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM)
Lots of indepth discussion on the thought provoking video content. meh.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 01, 2020, 05:59:12 pm
As for feral and wild cats, it's better to stay away from them for a while.

I shall have to give up my cat-dominium business (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/post-a-picture-of-a-cat!/msg2994086/#msg2994086)  :D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Sredni on April 01, 2020, 06:26:08 pm
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just  because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD

that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now
...

In the USA, law exist that an acute patient cannot be rejected by any hospital - even private hospitals.  The patient must be stabilized and under no immediate danger before they can let the patient leave.  Law is one thing, hospitals and emergency rooms are in practice a chaotic place.  I had to visit the emergency room on a couple of occasions - had the wait-time for the 2nd visit been as long as the 1st visit, my wife would probably have died waiting.  If you can wait, they will see you - insured or not.  Died while waiting - well, happens to the insured and uninsured.

That 17 year old who died may not be in the USA.  Besides being rejected by hospital which is hard to believe, according to CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR March 26 update (with corrections)[1]), there is no confirmed deaths for anyone at or below 19 years old. 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/17-year-old-dies-of-coronavirus-was-turned-away-for-lacking-insurance/ (https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/17-year-old-dies-of-coronavirus-was-turned-away-for-lacking-insurance/)
Quote
A Los Angeles teen — who tested positive for the coronavirus — died of septic shock after being turned away from an urgent care facility because he didn’t have health insurance.

While the 17-year old’s positive COVID-19 test didn’t arrive until after his death, residents of the LA neighborhood of Lancaster are outraged.

Lancaster Mayor R. Rex Parris told the Daily Mail the teen was healthy and had no pre-existing conditions before his death. Parris said the boy was turned away from the urgent care facility despite having respiratory issues because he didn’t have insurance and was told to go to a public hospital instead.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-teenager-death-california-health-insurance-care-emergency-room-covid-19-a9429946.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-teenager-death-california-health-insurance-care-emergency-room-covid-19-a9429946.html)

Quote
Updated: A 17-year-old whose death was initially linked to the novel coronavirus despite not having any previously reported health conditions was denied treatment at a California medical facility over his lack of insurance, according to the mayor.

R Rex Parris, the mayor of Lancaster, California, confirmed the teen’s death in a video posted to YouTube on Wednesday, in which he warned residents to take the global pandemic seriously and practice self-isolation and social distancing measures.

“The Friday before he died, he was healthy,” the mayor said about the teenager. “By Wednesday, he was dead.”

The mayor said the teen “didn’t have insurance, so they did not treat him” when he arrived at an urgent care facility in the area. The medical staff then told the child to go to a local public hospital.

That mayor may not be in the USA...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 01, 2020, 06:47:32 pm
Quote
Austrian authorities are facing a class action lawsuit involving as many as 2,500 tourists over their handling of a coronavirus outbreak in the popular Austrian winter sports resort of Ischgl, in Tyrol province.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on April 01, 2020, 06:58:09 pm
A private urgent care is not the same as a hospital. The sad fact is they probably wouldn't have been able to do anything except try to get him to a hospital anyway. As the story shows he didn't make it there. His family should have called 911. If you're EVER in doubt in the US call 911. It will not be cheap but they will do everything they can.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on April 01, 2020, 07:23:18 pm
As for feral and wild cats, it's better to stay away from them for a while.

I shall have to give up my cat-dominium business (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/post-a-picture-of-a-cat!/msg2994086/#msg2994086)  :D

We are lost the emergency ration, we have to hunt pigeon ,like last choice.   :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SkyMaster on April 01, 2020, 09:03:38 pm
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.

A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.
A good example but have you tried buying one? Plenty of controlled products are advertised on online stores, but it doesn't mean they will sell to the general public. Also thats only the suit shell, still plenty of other components and procedures required.

Hazmat suit:
(Attachment Link)

Or is thing going to go the way of drones and industry will need to find some new term to actually differentiate any given industrial coverall from biological/chemical hazard protection?

The DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit looks just like the Hazmat image you posted.

The Canadian web site (Fisher Scientific) mentions "For Use:  industrial, HazMat and domestic preparedness applications". By domestic, they probably do not mean Military  :)

Maybe the rules in Canada are different from the rules in Australia.

Anyway, I am sure that in your home lab you have plenty of equipment that are typically not sold at the consumer level.

Also, when I buy automotive paint (to paint cars) the package always read something along the line of "Not to be sold to consumer". I guess in Canada auto part stores are not considered consumer level stores.

 :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on April 01, 2020, 09:15:00 pm


From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!

From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".


    I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed.  My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once. That's across the entire United States from west to east.  Some states including Florida are just starting to set up checkpoints this past Monday where people are being checked for the virus but no one is being turned back. Anyone that is suspected of having the virus is being sent to the nearest hospital. Other states that surround virus hot spots of New York, New Jersey, Louisiana are taking similar measures.

   I doubt that "Don" is picking numbers off of his head. Most likely he's picking numbers that reflect the actual number of ventilators available and telling Cuomo and the other governors that they can't each have another 40,000 ventilators. (That is the number that Cuomo is demanding and he just got an additional 8,000 from the feds this past week.) It has nothing to do with political parties, I'll just point out that the two states that so far have gotten the lion shares of ventilators from the federal government are both staunch Democratic states (New York and California) with Democratic governors.  So far, Florida which is a strongly Republican state with a Republican governor has gotten none!  But in the last few weeks we have gotten an extra 200,000 New Yorkers that fled New York when a quarantine was imposed and flew to Florida. And now two international cruise ship full of exposed and infected crews and passengers are being landed in Florida.  Oh, and who got the two US Navy hospital ships? New York and California!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on April 01, 2020, 09:19:03 pm
Quote
Austrian authorities are facing a class action lawsuit involving as many as 2,500 tourists over their handling of a coronavirus outbreak in the popular Austrian winter sports resort of Ischgl, in Tyrol province.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html)

   That statement sounds like it came from one of our US ambulance-chasing scum-bag lawyers.  They're announcing a possible class-action lawsuit involving as many as 2500 plaintiffs but the press release never says what it is that the resort is alleged to have done wrong.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 01, 2020, 09:33:46 pm


From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!

From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".


    I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed.  My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once.

You're being a tad parochial and failing to realise that other federated countries exist and the federated entities within them are called states - in this case the states being referred to are the states of Australia. The big clue is in the second line of the comment you're quoting  that starts "The Coalition  government in Australia...".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on April 01, 2020, 09:51:23 pm
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.

A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.
A good example but have you tried buying one? Plenty of controlled products are advertised on online stores, but it doesn't mean they will sell to the general public. Also thats only the suit shell, still plenty of other components and procedures required.

Hazmat suit:
(Attachment Link)

Or is thing going to go the way of drones and industry will need to find some new term to actually differentiate any given industrial coverall from biological/chemical hazard protection?

The DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit looks just like the Hazmat image you posted.

The Canadian web site (Fisher Scientific) mentions "For Use:  industrial, HazMat and domestic preparedness applications". By domestic, they probably do not mean Military  :)

Maybe the rules in Canada are different from the rules in Australia.

Anyway, I am sure that in your home lab you have plenty of equipment that are typically not sold at the consumer level.

Also, when I buy automotive paint (to paint cars) the package always read something along the line of "Not to be sold to consumer". I guess in Canada auto part stores are not considered consumer level stores.

 :)
Yes, that is a picture of that same hazmat suit you mention (so clearly you aren't actually familiar with the things you point to), its an example of an actual watertight hazmat suit but alone is still not very effective. Not being typically sold to consumers is very different from a product stocked but not sold to unlicensed/unregistered users. Thermal cameras used to be in that sort of category and high resolution and/or frame rate modes only recently became available to the general public. You keep coming back with nothing more than your thoughts, rather than actual examples or experiences. But the actual point....

So far all the "reports" of people wearing hazmat suits have turned out to be simple coveralls. Most of them were the absorbent dust suits as used in cleanrooms, which are completely ineffective and likely worse than regular clothing + hand hygiene.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on April 01, 2020, 10:00:44 pm
Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems.

That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.

Dual use = export controlled. People around here buy dual use things all the time, fast FPGAs, thermal cameras. A couple of weeks back I had to complete an end user certificate to import a very ordinary FPGA board from the US because it is classified as dual use. Buying similar things domestically  without importing them happens with no paper work at all. I note that the DSGL list you pointed to includes full face respirators in the same category - are you really trying to tell us that your government treats these as "highly restricted" and one could not wander down to the local supplier of equipment to car resprayers and just pick one off the shelf? You certainly could here, I have done.
Crossing borders is another level of complexity but as goods get higher and higher up the "dual usefulness" just buying them domestically requires paperwork/oversight to ensure they are not being resold/exported/used for their possible military applications. Thermal cameras used to be like that and were held under lock and key like firearms. Lots of really boring things are mysteriously hard/impossible to obtain, all under dual use controls.

And no, you can't walk down to the local respray shop and buy biological rated filters for a full face mask, you get filters that are effective against industrial solvents/particulates.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 01, 2020, 10:08:50 pm
And no, you can't walk down to the local respray shop and buy biological rated filters for a full face mask, you get filters that are effective against industrial solvents/particulates.

I can actually hear the scrapping noise those goalposts are making as you move them with the strawman draped across them.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on April 01, 2020, 11:39:03 pm

I have good news and I have bad news.

It's April Fools day...  in the middle of a pandemic.

:popcorn:

Friendly FYI: it's been AFD warming up for a few weeks now, going well,  and apparently getting a 6 month extension
or more till further notice   :-//

But don't tell anyone, otherwise the joke will be a fail,
and the fun will end before everyone is bankrupt, unemployed and destitute,
and only then will they realize what an uber extended AFD job it was   :clap:

and enjoy a good laugh over it   :o  ;D :-DD :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Stray Electron on April 01, 2020, 11:59:32 pm


From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!

From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".


    I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed.  My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once.

You're being a tad parochial and failing to realise that other federated countries exist and the federated entities within them are called states - in this case the states being referred to are the states of Australia. The big clue is in the second line of the comment you're quoting  that starts "The Coalition  government in Australia...".

  And you neglected to read the rest of his statement which specifically about the US. Here is the rest of of what you ignored, the last line in the first paragraph makes it clear that he was referring to the US and each of the three following paragraphs also refer specifically to the US. Go back and read his post again, the quote about "The Coalition Government of Australia" was a previous paragraph.

"From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!

From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".

The argument that they were "distracted by impeachment" doesn't wash, either, as Bill Clinton was able to deal with important issues during his impeachment, & Richard Nixon did a lot of important diplomatic work, including the beginning of normalised relations with China, & the extrication of the USA from Vietnam, whilst under the shadow of possible impeachment.

Those of my generation grew up seeing the USA as the immensely practical "can do" country, who could take on any disaster properly, & prevail.

We saw that start to come apart with Hurricane Katrina, & it is worse with this crisis.
What the hell happened, USA?"
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vk6zgo on April 02, 2020, 12:24:23 am


From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!

From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".


    I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed.  My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once. That's across the entire United States from west to east.  Some states including Florida are just starting to set up checkpoints this past Monday where people are being checked for the virus but no one is being turned back. Anyone that is suspected of having the virus is being sent to the nearest hospital. Other states that surround virus hot spots of New York, New Jersey, Louisiana are taking similar measures.

   I doubt that "Don" is picking numbers off of his head. Most likely he's picking numbers that reflect the actual number of ventilators available and telling Cuomo and the other governors that they can't each have another 40,000 ventilators. (That is the number that Cuomo is demanding and he just got an additional 8,000 from the feds this past week.) It has nothing to do with political parties, I'll just point out that the two states that so far have gotten the lion shares of ventilators from the federal government are both staunch Democratic states (New York and California) with Democratic governors.  So far, Florida which is a strongly Republican state with a Republican governor has gotten none!  But in the last few weeks we have gotten an extra 200,000 New Yorkers that fled New York when a quarantine was imposed and flew to Florida. And now two international cruise ship full of exposed and infected crews and passengers are being landed in Florida.  Oh, and who got the two US Navy hospital ships? New York and California!

It would be nice if you read my post properly!

The States referred to are the Australian States.

There was a change of subject in the next sentence, where I wrote:-

"i'm not really sure if that would be legally possible in the USA---------it certainly wouldn't be, politically"

My point in that sentence was that Australian States may have greater autonomy under our Constitution, than you have under yours, & of course, you have many more States!

I apologise for not giving President Trump his full title, but it is common amongst Australians & others to use the shortened first name version, thus, the Australian PM is often referred to as "Scotty", the UK PM as "Boris", the Russian President as "Vlad", & so on.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 02, 2020, 01:38:26 am


From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!

From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".


    I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed.  My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once.

You're being a tad parochial and failing to realise that other federated countries exist and the federated entities within them are called states - in this case the states being referred to are the states of Australia. The big clue is in the second line of the comment you're quoting  that starts "The Coalition  government in Australia...".

  And you neglected to read the rest of his statement which specifically about the US. Here is the rest of of what you ignored, the last line in the first paragraph makes it clear that he was referring to the US and each of the three following paragraphs also refer specifically to the US. Go back and read his post again, the quote about "The Coalition Government of Australia" was a previous paragraph.

No, I read the whole thing, and understood it. It seems you failed to do either.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on April 02, 2020, 02:23:02 am
That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.
I note that the DSGL list you pointed to includes full face respirators in the same category - are you really trying to tell us that your government treats these as "highly restricted" and one could not wander down to the local supplier of equipment to car resprayers and just pick one off the shelf? You certainly could here, I have done.
And no, you can't walk down to the local respray shop and buy biological rated filters for a full face mask, you get filters that are effective against industrial solvents/particulates.
I can actually hear the scrapping noise those goalposts are making as you move them with the strawman draped across them.
It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on April 02, 2020, 03:13:42 am
Some time in March:

[attachimg=2]

3 weeks later:

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 02, 2020, 04:01:44 am
That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx (https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx)
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.
I note that the DSGL list you pointed to includes full face respirators in the same category - are you really trying to tell us that your government treats these as "highly restricted" and one could not wander down to the local supplier of equipment to car resprayers and just pick one off the shelf? You certainly could here, I have done.
And no, you can't walk down to the local respray shop and buy biological rated filters for a full face mask, you get filters that are effective against industrial solvents/particulates.
I can actually hear the scrapping noise those goalposts are making as you move them with the strawman draped across them.
It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.

Nuance you fail to appreciate, seeing as exactly the same elements that protect against solvents also protect against chemical warfare agents - yes those are on the DSGL list. (It's good old fashioned activated charcoal for the record). You're the one who threw in the 'biological rated filters' strawman. Biological rated filters, of course, are what we have spent countless fun hours discussing here in relation to Covid-19. There is very little special about filters that will exclude biological risks - military gas masks for this purpose are rated FFP3 just like the kind of masks we've been talking about for Covid-19. You bluster about "heavily restricted items" but seem to have very little actual knowledge of hazmat technology and I guess are hoping that the rest of don't either. Well, I do, and a casual glance at that list of restricted uses are all use cases for respirators that I've bought and owned with no official hoops to jump through, just money to pay to everyday trade suppliers.  Briitish Army standard issue NBC respirators are rated AB2EK-P3 and you can commercially buy similar rated filters here https://www.rapidonline.com/3m-6099-gas-combination-filter-abek1p3-2-pairs-49-5558 (https://www.rapidonline.com/3m-6099-gas-combination-filter-abek1p3-2-pairs-49-5558) with no fuss, no muss. This stuff is used industrially by the bucketload every day. For the record, the respirators used by blokes spray painting cars are actually fully air supplied (the reason being isocyanates used in modern 2 pack paints are nasty from a respiratory point of view and  hard to trap adequately in filters), so are pretty much proof against anything and would therefore fall into all the DSGL restricted categories. And yet you can still just pick them up at a trade counter.

You've gone to surprising lengths to try and ridicule the OP who mentioned hazmat suits, gainsay me and one other poster who's called you out on hyperbole too, and you still haven't actually made your case. You have completely failed to demonstrate that hazmat suits are, in any fashion other then export control, "heavily restricted items", failed to demonstrate that there is any official "control" forbidding their sale in the normal course of business. You just keep doubling down on the same statement without actually providing any proof, yet conveniently exclude any evidence of them being on general industrial sale by just gainsaying it thus:
A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.
A good example but have you tried buying one? Plenty of controlled products are advertised on online stores, but it doesn't mean they will sell to the general public. Also thats only the suit shell, still plenty of other components and procedures required.

You're on a hiding to nothing but still persist. It beggars belief the lengths some people will go to to avoid saying "Perhaps I overstated the case".

This is my last word on the subject as I'm sure that I'm boring the rest of the world to tears, and they will have formed their own opinions on the reasonableness of your and my arguments a long time ago (If they were stupid enough to keep paying attention).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rick Law on April 02, 2020, 04:16:14 am
A private urgent care is not the same as a hospital. The sad fact is they probably wouldn't have been able to do anything except try to get him to a hospital anyway. As the story shows he didn't make it there. His family should have called 911. If you're EVER in doubt in the US call 911. It will not be cheap but they will do everything they can.

Yup - if ever in doubt, call 911 or go to the emergency room.

Emergency Room(s) has everything in terms of equipment, and not to forget, access to specialist.  I have been with the same doctor (in private practice) for over thirty years.  I took my wife to see our doctor.  She (the doctor) poke and feel and then said it would be best for us to get to the hospital emergency.  She went on to explain: if we ordered blood test, and as needed, x-ray, CAT scan, whatever, you could be dead before the results are back, and if not, you can wait for an appointment with a specialist.  She was right on.  That was my first visit to the emergency room.

The second time I took my wife to the emergency room directly in the middle of the night.  It was over my wife's objection because she wanted to wait till morning till the doctor's office opens.  At the emergency, after the initial vital check, she was taken to the "resuscitation room" to stabilize her.  She was (re)admitted to the hospital a few hours later.  I was told during the stabilization that "she wouldn't have last the night" the condition she was in.

So when in doubt, get to the Emergency Room if you can, or call 911.

I now own a blood pressure meter and a heart beat monitor.  They are not medical grade and need practice to get consistent readings.  But, they help me make better decisions.

Lastly, one thing we do not normally think about:  While Obama Care requires medical records to be electronic, it did not requires inter-connectivity between medical services/groups.  We were using a lab and medical imaging service in a group different from the ones used by our specialist-doctor and the hospital.  I know from discussing with the doctor about a prior scan but then learn that he never received the result for that scan.  So I started waiting for the results (and CD of images) to hand to the doctor directly.  Eventually I switched over to using the same lab/imaging service used by the specialist to avoid data lost and time lost.

So, if you have the need for specialist-doctor and your specialist-doctor use an imaging service differ than your GP-doctor, do put that into consideration.

I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just  because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD

that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now
...

In the USA, law exist that an acute patient cannot be rejected by any hospital - even private hospitals.  The patient must be stabilized and under no immediate danger before they can let the patient leave.  Law is one thing, hospitals and emergency rooms are in practice a chaotic place.  I had to visit the emergency room on a couple of occasions - had the wait-time for the 2nd visit been as long as the 1st visit, my wife would probably have died waiting.  If you can wait, they will see you - insured or not.  Died while waiting - well, happens to the insured and uninsured.

That 17 year old who died may not be in the USA.  Besides being rejected by hospital which is hard to believe, according to CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR March 26 update (with corrections)[1]), there is no confirmed deaths for anyone at or below 19 years old. 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/17-year-old-dies-of-coronavirus-was-turned-away-for-lacking-insurance/ (https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/17-year-old-dies-of-coronavirus-was-turned-away-for-lacking-insurance/)
...
...

The article pointed out that "LA County announced the boy had died from the coronavirus — health officials said there may be an “alternate explanation” and that his death would be further investigated" [Bold added].

I actually did saw the article and was going to point it out to my kid so she is more careful - but that last line there stopped me.  They are not yet sure and I wrote it off in my mind as virus-death consequently.

The linked article was dated March 28 but reference "by Wednesday he was dead" so it could be Wed March 25.  The CDC report I cited was updated March 26.  So as of March 26, CDC has not yet considered that case a virus-caused death.  May be CDC will do so once the "further investigation" is completed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on April 02, 2020, 05:49:52 am
I've been to the ER many times for my asthma but last year was my first time having 911 called. Passed out and woke up in a puddle of sweat that didn't stop growing after I woke up. Couldn't catch my breath, had no energy. I didn't know what to do but couldn't stand up so my wife had to call 911 and I got my first ambulance ride ever. Luckily this last time I was able to make it to the ER myself(well, Wife drove me). Had CT scans, MRIs, X-rays, blood tests, the best pain meds. Luckily my insurance pays for ambulance if you're admitted so total cost was nothing but premiums. I also learned to go to the medical group associated with the hospital by my house. Definitely saves time as all the specialists, the hospital and my GP share records. Unless it's something minor don't waste money on an urgent care. I only visit them for my kids ear infections and similar things.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 02, 2020, 05:52:52 am
Quote
Austrian authorities are facing a class action lawsuit involving as many as 2,500 tourists over their handling of a coronavirus outbreak in the popular Austrian winter sports resort of Ischgl, in Tyrol province.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html)

   That statement sounds like it came from one of our US ambulance-chasing scum-bag lawyers.  They're announcing a possible class-action lawsuit involving as many as 2500 plaintiffs but the press release never says what it is that the resort is alleged to have done wrong.

It is my fault. I do not trust so much Italian newspapers (no longer) so made a quick search on the net, but due to haste did not read the article I linked  |O.
Italian newspapers wrote a while ago that the resort and local government knew about the COVID-19 and hid that to the tourists just to keep the cash flowing.
OK:
Quote
Despite an official warning from the Icelandic government on March 4 that a group of its nationals had contracted coronavirus in Ischgl, Austrian authorities allowed ski tourism -- and the partying that goes with it -- to continue for another nine days before fully quarantining the resort on March 13. Bars in Ischgl were closed on March 10.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 02, 2020, 06:08:02 am
in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.

Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
of course just 2 pieces of data are in no way enough to devise a trend, but if one thinks that all this depends on the fact that deaths come 1-2 weeks later after the first symptoms then one realizes that (unfortunately) that bloody rate will go up

now I wonder if those deaths figures in China are real
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: maginnovision on April 02, 2020, 06:16:01 am
If you search with google "China Coronavirus lies" it'd appear a lot of people question China. That is a pretty biased search term though.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on April 02, 2020, 06:24:45 am
It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.
You've gone to surprising lengths to try and ridicule the OP who mentioned hazmat suits, gainsay me and one other poster who's called you out on hyperbole too, and you still haven't actually made your case. You have completely failed to demonstrate that hazmat suits are, in any fashion other then export control, "heavily restricted items", failed to demonstrate that there is any official "control" forbidding their sale in the normal course of business. You just keep doubling down on the same statement without actually providing any proof, yet conveniently exclude any evidence of them being on general industrial sale by just gainsaying it thus:
Proof? Which supplier would want to risk their supply permit by either sharing its details, or selling dual use products freely risking onward supply?

But back on the original point, seems there was at least one example of a shopper who went to the effort and used substantial biological controls.
[attach=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on April 02, 2020, 06:51:16 am
Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support.  :palm:
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.
You are comparing apples to oranges. Cuba sent doctors, Russia sent doctors and disinfecting equipment and personnel. Any boots on the ground from France?

I wrote 'face masks'!  :palm:
And what are a couple of dozen doctors and nurses going to accomplish compared to the hundreds of thousands of Italian health care workers and military personel anyway? Less than a drop in a bucket. It is pure propaganda to push a wedge into the EU.

Meanwhile, regarding facemasks ordered by France in China ...  :-DD

Just translate your self using Google Translate if you don't understand French.

Translated title -> A French order for masks diverted to the United States on a Chinese tarmac
-> Une commande française de masques détournée vers les Etats-Unis sur un tarmac chinois (https://www.liberation.fr/france/2020/04/01/une-commande-francaise-de-masques-detournee-vers-les-etats-unis-sur-un-tarmac-chinois_1783805)


Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on April 02, 2020, 07:07:20 am
It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.
You've gone to surprising lengths to try and ridicule the OP who mentioned hazmat suits, gainsay me and one other poster who's called you out on hyperbole too, and you still haven't actually made your case. You have completely failed to demonstrate that hazmat suits are, in any fashion other then export control, "heavily restricted items", failed to demonstrate that there is any official "control" forbidding their sale in the normal course of business. You just keep doubling down on the same statement without actually providing any proof, yet conveniently exclude any evidence of them being on general industrial sale by just gainsaying it thus:
Proof? Which supplier would want to risk their supply permit by either sharing its details, or selling dual use products freely risking onward supply?

But back on the original point, seems there was at least one example of a shopper who went to the effort and used substantial biological controls.
(Attachment Link)

Perhaps you should point at the regulations you speak of. Although I expect their existence and details will vary greatly by country.

As for the equipment in the picture, that's fairly low end stuff. The sort of gear a pest exterminator might wear when spraying indoors, for instance. The suit is fairly cheap, the respirator might be too...picture isn't that good. Whether it was any actual effort would depend on what that shopper does for a living. Could be he just made use of equipment he already had handy for his day job.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: peter-h on April 02, 2020, 08:31:34 am
This is worth seeing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 02, 2020, 08:44:14 am
A recent post of mine has been removed. I do not know who did that.

Italian government welfare agency (INPS) where people who lost jobs can apply for subsides has been recently hacked.

Newspapers also speak about disinformation campaign organized by some foreign powers who while publicly acting as aid providers aim at dividing and weakening EU.

Anybody can get more information starting from Wikipedia links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_StratCom_Task_Force (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_StratCom_Task_Force)
Quote
The full record of the Task Force's work on disinformation is available on its website EUvsDisinfo.eu
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Someone on April 02, 2020, 09:22:46 am
It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.
You've gone to surprising lengths to try and ridicule the OP who mentioned hazmat suits, gainsay me and one other poster who's called you out on hyperbole too, and you still haven't actually made your case. You have completely failed to demonstrate that hazmat suits are, in any fashion other then export control, "heavily restricted items", failed to demonstrate that there is any official "control" forbidding their sale in the normal course of business. You just keep doubling down on the same statement without actually providing any proof, yet conveniently exclude any evidence of them being on general industrial sale by just gainsaying it thus:
Proof? Which supplier would want to risk their supply permit by either sharing its details, or selling dual use products freely risking onward supply?

But back on the original point, seems there was at least one example of a shopper who went to the effort and used substantial biological controls.
(Attachment Link)

Perhaps you should point at the regulations you speak of. Although I expect their existence and details will vary greatly by country.

As for the equipment in the picture, that's fairly low end stuff. The sort of gear a pest exterminator might wear when spraying indoors, for instance. The suit is fairly cheap, the respirator might be too...picture isn't that good. Whether it was any actual effort would depend on what that shopper does for a living. Could be he just made use of equipment he already had handy for his day job.
That is the most extreme example I've seen so far documented in mass media, as you say still relatively common and affordable equipment. If you're really interested the Australian government makes it easy to find the relevant legislation:
https://www.defence.gov.au/ExportControls/Legislation.asp (https://www.defence.gov.au/ExportControls/Legislation.asp)
and to add to the confusion the legislation is being fiddled with day on day around the COVID epidemic, such as control of "essential" products:
https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2020L00343 (https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2020L00343)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 02, 2020, 09:58:02 am
This is worth seeing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)
A video with a clickbait title and no further explanation? I'm good.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 02, 2020, 10:36:01 am
This is worth seeing

A video with a clickbait title and no further explanation? I'm good.
That video is such a load of crap that it should be considered  a mental health medical diagnosis for whoever made it...  |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 02, 2020, 10:37:11 am
We really should never have invented any technology that can give an idiot a stage
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Leo Bodnar on April 02, 2020, 11:22:48 am
"The masks are dangerous" supertanker has started turning around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52126735 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52126735)

When WHO says you should be wearing a mask in public it really means that you should really be wearing it for the last two months.

Expect the public to swing from one extreme to the other.

Leo
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 02, 2020, 11:27:33 am
in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.

Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BrianHG on April 02, 2020, 11:50:00 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFftsn6izic (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFftsn6izic)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 02, 2020, 01:18:08 pm
If you search with google "China Coronavirus lies" it'd appear a lot of people question China. That is a pretty biased search term though.

Of course there are enough people in the world that, finally joined together by the Internet, there is a not insignificant quantity of resources on the same devoted to the belief that the earth is flat, the Illuminati are real and control the world, and so on. There are enough people who believe that China exists wholly to make America/the Wests's lives miserable that it's just plain natural that there's a lot of conspiracy flying about around China.

The truth is, as always, subtler. China, without a doubt, have a history of producing propaganda and controlling what appears in the media for political/appearance reasons both for domestic and foreign consumption. To be clear, the West does this too perhaps not to the same extent but we definitely do do it; it's just that it's 'our little tribe' so we don't see it clearly for what it is. Doing this has a knock on effect that you start to believe your own propaganda and model your world view on it - it becomes self-reinforcing. The Chinese variety is compounded by a deep rooted cultural attitude towards 'saving face', an attitude that exists but isn't as deep or widespread in the West except notably in certain political figures.

There is evidence that there was a knee jerk "don't accept bad news, it couldn't happen here in our wonderful society" reaction in China to the initial reports of a starting Coronavirus epidemic. The doctor who first reported the likely epidemic was given a hard time. Unusually sense and respect for actual evidence quickly prevailed, the doctor was exonerated the people who had tried to suppress the "bad news" given an arse kicking instead. Chinese officialdom overcame their "no bad news here" conditioning and prioritised responding appropriately over propaganda. They accepted that this was a situation where facts trump ideology.

It's that about turn that makes it unlikely that China have gone back into propaganda mode over reporting coronavirus related statistics. At this point sense says that there isn't any political mileage in falsifying the statistics. Once they made the step to publicly acknowledge that a big problem existed they stepped past the point where there was any face to be saved, and indeed now the way to keep face is to be able to demonstrate that they are being open handed about this.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 02, 2020, 01:23:20 pm
This is worth seeing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)

Without a summary I doubt that anyone will bother watching this. From the title it sounds like a conspiracy nut video and most people will, rightly, dismiss it out of hand and not bother watching it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on April 02, 2020, 02:29:08 pm
I have seen a text that is being circulated with an opening attribution stating that it is from Johns Hopkins (University or Hospital):

The following was sent out by John Hopkins Hospital regarding COVID-19. Excellent article and recommendations: https://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/threads/coronavirus.166679/post-1493754 (https://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/threads/coronavirus.166679/post-1493754)

Johns Hopkins University has sent this detailed note on avoiding the contagion. http://shadysideschools.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/AvodingCovid19.pdf (http://shadysideschools.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/AvodingCovid19.pdf)

I do not believe that the text, in the variations that I have seen, ever originated from Johns Hopkins (I looked for quite a while) and I am not going to post it here. It contains a number of clear inaccuracies ...

SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, it is not a DNA virus.

The recommended concentration of bleach as a disinfectant is ~ 10 times that recommended by the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cleaning-disinfection.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cleaning-disinfection.html)

I can't find any Listerine mouthwash product advertised at containing 65% alcohol (or even 30% alcohol).

There are other issues with the text that can be argued to be less problematic and there is some legitimate advice in there as well.

Everyone finds their own way but, in my view, there is a good deal of credible information out there from credible sources with traceable attributions (even those can be wrong at some time or another as more is known).

I don't see any reason to even bother with recommendations that can't be traced to a legitimate source. I am immediately suspicious when I see these.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mrflibble on April 02, 2020, 03:23:35 pm
This is worth seeing
This is worth autograbbing, piping through quick filter and dumping here to save random future victim 3 minutes of life. /Barely/ worth it. Had targeted max spent time at 2 minutes. Went over it, but kept under 3 minutes. Oh well.

Without a summary I doubt that anyone will bother watching this. From the title it sounds like a conspiracy nut video and most people will, rightly, dismiss it out of hand and not bother watching it.

Can't be bothered to frob proper formatting. Caption spammed below:
(put in code box to limit vertical post size)
Code: [Select]
the Chinese government really needs to
do a better job of hiding information if
they're gonna keep changing their story
and blaming the coronavirus on other
countries like Italy or the USA or Japan
or whatever well I'm not a fan of
theories or unproven scenarios it's been
impossible to avoid them in the outbreak
of the corona virus simply due to the
fact that it was completely covered up
in the beginning stages in China this
isn't really gonna be a theory it's just
public information I found when it broke
China was the first to jump onto the
local Wuhan and who Bay government and
villainize them until they had their
perfect scapegoat this was of course
preceded with the fact that we now know
it wasn't just a local issue it was in
fact the way that the Chinese government
was structured that led the top-down
leadership to stifle and prevent the
release of any relevant information for
months which could have prevented this
global pandemic first and foremost this
is the Communist Party of China's fault
in the fact that there are people
gasping for breath in their deathbed in
your town is solely on the consciousness
of the CCP and the people who entrusted
them to enter our global systems like
the w-h-o the thing is after living in
China for 10 years and speaking fluent
Chinese you get to know a society pretty
well and let me tell you this if you're
applauding or admiring the political
leadership of China you're all deluded
beyond belief China doesn't operate like
your country the Chinese government is a
face and greed driven government that
relies on lies and bullying to maintain
leadership it's broken and fragile so it
doesn't surprise me that when I was
doing my research in my last video it
wasn't hard to follow a paper trail left
by the CCP themselves in my last video I
found it very suspicious that the
official Wuhan virology lab had a job
opening from November 18th of 2019
asking for scientists to come research
the relationship between the coronavirus
and bats specifically why they carry the
virus yet our long-lived it's no secret
that longevity as well as other ailments
are well studied in China as can be seen
by the ridiculous amounts of traditional
Chinese medicines that supposedly treat
them vero bile injections is state
endorsed coronavirus cure anyone any way
while reading this job posting I fail to
notice until the next day
then another job posting followed the
previous post and this is where it got
big so when I examine the job posting I
noticed that there was actually a
follow-up job posting on December 24th
of 2019 remember this is before any news
broke which basically says we've
discovered a new and terrible virus and
would like to recruit people to come
deal with it I found this interesting
because like I said that news didn't
come out about coronavirus until ages
after that so I decided to dig a little
bit more into the staff after all they
would have published articles being
scientists turns out this woman should
youngly she was a lead researcher of the
lab and she was famous for bat studies
they called her bat woman in some
circles she even received an award for
approving bats are natural reservoirs of
SARS like coronaviruses in November 2017
all the way through 2018 she had already
written three articles about how bats
can transmit corona viruses to humans
this is all public knowledge
she and her team went south to Yunnan
Province all the way you know deep south
to China is very beautiful there and she
found out that SARS like viruses
originally came from bats in fact in
2017 from data taken from one of her
studies in rural Yunnan Province she
took blood samples from 218 villagers
after testing it it showed that SARS
like viruses found in bats from nearby
caves have a high potential to affect
people she predicted that humans coming
into contact with bats would have a high
chance of becoming infected after blood
testing the 218 villagers she found that
six people in Yunnan were found to be
infected
she returned to Wuhan to the lab to
continue studying stars like
coronaviruses from bats for a long
period of time and this is why you can
see the November 18th 2019 job posting
asking for more researchers to join the
project during this time we don't know
much but the December 24th posting
acknowledges that they've made a big
discovery in human transmissibility and
they need more help to deal with it so
that's where it got kind of spooky
during my research a name kept popping
up
Huang yelling Huang Lian Ling was a
researcher in the lab working on the
virology of bats with Zhang Li and she's
missing
most people believe her to be patient
zero and most people believe she's dead
she's young Li you know the
had lab leader told the government that
she swears on her life that she isn't
dead nor was she infected however all of
her info on the Wuhan lab website you
know where I found the job posting it's
gone so if you look here if you go to
the actual virology website you can see
all the people that were working here or
were students they all have their BIOS
still up whether or not they moved on
from the Wuhan lab but if you can see
Huang Lian Ling's profile is completely
vanished her picture is gone and now her
bio was gone as well but if you go to
the other students all their BIOS remain
intact knowing his scenar
and the government has posted a notice
instead of any information about her on
the lab website stating that there were
rumors of her disappearance but she's
alive and well without giving an ounce
of proof of course everyone on the
Chinese internet is searching for her
but most believe that her body was
quickly cremated and the people working
at the crematorium where perhaps
infected as they were not given any
information about the virus it was a
secret after all the thing is this has
sparked a massive discussion on the
Chinese internet and most of the
articles get scrubbed pretty quickly but
I found a lot of good points now the
thing is the CCP put up this kind of
notice saying that she's totally alive
and everything's okay and don't believe
these rumors but but if you've been in
China you know how how much the CCP
actually hates rumors and if Wong
yelling is truly alive like they claim
why is her photo and bio removed the
other associates and graduates remain on
the website even after moving to other
positions at different labs or different
universities the first thing that the
government would do the CCP that I know
at least the first thing they would do
to quash this rumor is to make her have
a public appearance then people would
stop talking about it yet people are
still looking for and can't find her and
I'm not talking about normal medicines
I'm talking about PhDs I'm talking about
scientists I'm talking about professors
and this is where it kind of started to
come together on February 6 2020
albertov he was a professor he posted a
thesis about details that he knew about
but he wasn't supposed to talk about I
see some kind of links to people like
Lee wen Liang who wanted to say
something but they couldn't but she'll
wha tell the professor he posted the
information anyway
he knew researchers at the lab that were
infected and they had already begun self
quarantine after they showed symptoms of
being infected and the majority of the
researchers at the lab were already
suspicious that this virus that they
were coming down with was from Pat's the
professor directly pointed out that the
main source of the virus is from the
wuhan lab which is only 300 or actually
280 meters to be exact from the hanan
seafood market where it was originally
claimed to have originated he also
claims that it is not a natural
infection so not something that people
would have just come across in nature he
also gives a clear timeline and has
information that researchers were
splashed with urine and blood samples
from all the bats that were collected
not only that he also knew exactly how
many bats were collected in the lab now
pairing the researcher Huang Lian Ling's
disappearance with the fact that people
working in the lab claimed to have been
splashed with coronavirus containing
vials and her online presence has been
scrubbed from existence all happening in
a lab 280 metres away from the Han
seafood market where the lab in question
had been studying that's a human
transmissibility of coronaviruses it's
quite clear that the Chinese government
needs to close his mouth and acknowledge
that this in fact did come from wuhan
hubei China I did not get into any
conspiracy theories I'm not talking
about bio weapons or bio labs or
anything of the sort
this was all public information on the
Chinese Internet published by
researchers scientists and doctors with
the CCP is all powerful control to hide
everything it can the truth usually
still finds its way out the Chinese
government should cover their tracks
better next time if you're gonna blame
this on Italy or the US or whatever is
convenient to your narrative the ccp's
incompetence and clear understanding of
the corona virus and his danger on a
scientific level and then going on to
silence those who wanted to warn the
public and letting the virus spread for
months is the reason the entire world is
infected with a deadly pandemic the
Chinese government must be held
accountable please make sure that you're
all self quarantine if at all possible
most things are available for delivery
so please don't go shopping unless
absolutely necessary make sure you're
wearing a masking
if you do and disinfecting anything that
has come into contact with anything it's
our job to clean up this mess and the
only way is to be responsible and not
come in contact with people this will
only further the spread and put
unnecessary burden on the already
overstretched medical staff in your
country thank you to everyone who is
supporting me on patreon it's the only
way I can do what I do right now due to
the D monetization of everything
coronavirus related it may dissuade
people from talking about it but the
world needs to know the truth and
covering details like I have done today
is the least I can do to uncover and
disprove the absolute lies coming from
the Chinese government right now whose
sole purpose is self-preservation thank
you

-- Spammed but not read

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on April 02, 2020, 03:38:58 pm
now I wonder if those deaths figures in China are real


Imagine Italy suddenly sees 20k new well staffed beds for COVID19 patients. It starts to get less scary.

The beds aren't the trouble, the problem are the mild cases covid 19 with good evolution,when they  arrive to 5 or 6 day of the infection, and without any explaining , the patients begin to death by lung collapse less of one hour. Although the patients are intubated and with respirators don't breath by the severe damaged of the lungs. That is the problem.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on April 02, 2020, 04:20:41 pm
This is worth seeing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)

Without a summary I doubt that anyone will bother watching this. From the title it sounds like a conspiracy nut video and most people will, rightly, dismiss it out of hand and not bother watching it.

Worse by them , they will lose information of how work the world behind the scenes. I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Dundarave on April 02, 2020, 04:22:49 pm
We really should never have invented any technology that can give an idiot a stage

Yes, Gutenberg has a lot to answer for, lol...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 02, 2020, 04:34:50 pm
This is worth seeing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)

Without a summary I doubt that anyone will bother watching this. From the title it sounds like a conspiracy nut video and most people will, rightly, dismiss it out of hand and not bother watching it.

Worse by them , they will lose information of how work the world behind the scenes. I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

Let me be blunt. If I read that right (and the only reason you're getting the benefit of the doubt here is that past experience suggests that you struggle with English), you're saying that this was a deliberate release of the SARS-covid-2 virus by an internal Chinese political faction. If that's what you're saying you are, on the balance of probabilities, very very wrong. You have no evidence yet are prepared, on the basis of no evidence, to seriously put forward a hypothesis of deliberate release on that basis? If that is what you're saying, it genuinely calls into question at least your judgement, possibly your rationality and sanity. I don't mean that unkindly, and in no terms is that meant as an insult.

Or to put it into terms we'd say around my neighbourhood: "If you believe that you're off your trolley".
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 02, 2020, 05:25:48 pm
Let me be blunt.
I will be even more blunt. Whoever made that video is full blown mental patient. Sad really, he (or she) should seek medical help.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 02, 2020, 05:28:12 pm
We really should never have invented any technology that can give an idiot a stage

Yes, Gutenberg has a lot to answer for, lol...
Books cost serious work and money to publish. In comparison, YouTube publishing is cheap and easy..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 02, 2020, 05:31:11 pm
Well this went off the rails since I last looked.

I’m going to now depart for a couple of hours and then see if it goes full Icke.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SkyMaster on April 02, 2020, 06:34:08 pm

Worse by them , they will lose information of how work the world behind the scenes. I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

Let me be blunt. If I read that right (and the only reason you're getting the benefit of the doubt here is that past experience suggests that you struggle with English), you're saying that this was a deliberate release of the SARS-covid-2 virus by an internal Chinese political faction. If that's what you're saying you are, on the balance of probabilities, very very wrong. You have no evidence yet are prepared, on the basis of no evidence, to seriously put forward a hypothesis of deliberate release on that basis? If that is what you're saying, it genuinely calls into question at least your judgement, possibly your rationality and sanity. I don't mean that unkindly, and in no terms is that meant as an insult.

Or to put it into terms we'd say around my neighbourhood: "If you believe that you're off your trolley".

English is not my first language either (my first language is French), therefore I sympathize with anybody who is using English when it is not their first language.

In the defense of Vodka, he did  write "I believe (hypotesis) that...", without claiming this was the truth.

 :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 02, 2020, 06:40:26 pm
Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.

Of course there are fluctuations regarding number of cases, different strategies to test both cases and to count deaths among the various countries and even a sudden change like in China (in the testing strategy), but, as far as I've been able to see, that sort of provisional death rate does increase in all countries as the virus keeps spreading and I intended to stress how that rate now starts to look similar to that of the other countries.

We'll have to wait a few years for the end of the pandemic and the time needed to elaborate all the data before seeing some conclusive publications on this. (I just hope I'll still be here so I'll be able to read that  :) )
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 02, 2020, 06:49:17 pm
If you search with google "China Coronavirus lies" it'd appear a lot of people question China. That is a pretty biased search term though.

Of course there are enough people in the world that, finally joined together by the Internet, there is a not insignificant quantity of resources on the same devoted to the belief that the earth is flat, the Illuminati are real and control the world, and so on. There are enough people who believe that China exists wholly to make America/the Wests's lives miserable that it's just plain natural that there's a lot of conspiracy flying about around China.

BTW I was just wondering about that... thinking loudly...
I do not hold any particular POV and as a matter of fact, in previous posts I even stated China official figures are credible
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 02, 2020, 07:10:19 pm
Worse by them , they will lose information of how work the world behind the scenes. I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

1-2 weeks ago Nature Medicine published a convincing article stating the virus is of natural origin

the main responsibility is likely in the slow reaction of Wuhan local government while other countries just deluded themselves into believing all this would have remained in Asia and would have never concerned them

no country took the chance to prepare in advance for the future emergency
even when things started to run out of control in Italy most of people in charge in the other countries didn't care much

most people just cannot realize how fast this spreads and changes everything and then it is too late
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on April 02, 2020, 07:26:43 pm
in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.

Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.

Indeed. We've almost reached capacity of testing by now. I don't think we can go beyond 200k/week in the near future, even when politicians say we need to. Not enough supply for making test kits. Myself, still in isolation for being in a room with an infected person, wasn't tested. I doubt I caught it. Symptoms were almost unnoticeable.

The CFR depends a lot not only on number of tests but also on who you test. If you test only those with severe symptoms, naturally CFR is high. Up to now we've tested even patients with mild or no symptoms, to prevent spread by early isolation. With social distancing in place and (potentially) everyone being required to wear "masks", maybe the spread can be controlled without the massive testing effort.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 02, 2020, 07:34:27 pm
in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.

Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.

Indeed. We've almost reached capacity of testing by now. I don't think we can go beyond 200k/week in the near future, even when politicians say we need to. Not enough supply for making test kits. Myself, still in isolation for being in a room with an infected person, wasn't tested. I doubt I caught it. Symptoms were almost unnoticeable.

The CFR depends a lot not only on number of tests but also on who you test. If you test only those with severe symptoms, naturally CFR is high. Up to now we've tested even patients with mild or no symptoms, to prevent spread by early isolation. With social distancing in place and (potentially) everyone being required to wear "masks", maybe the spread can be controlled without the massive testing effort.

after 13-14 hours it's already at 1.3%: (https://virusncov.com/ (https://virusncov.com/))
in any case I wish both of you a prompt recovery (and with the mildest of the symptoms)  :-+
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on April 02, 2020, 07:45:38 pm
I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.


For what?  For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed  infrastructers and industries.  How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?

1: I suppose that they release the bug  for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the  west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of  all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve  to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).

Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
 

*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be  a landmark.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on April 02, 2020, 07:47:57 pm
I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.


For what?  For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed  infrastructers and industries.  How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?

1: I suppose that they release the bug  for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the  west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of  all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve  to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).

Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
 

*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be  a landmark.
:--
Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on April 02, 2020, 07:50:32 pm
:--
Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.
That's just what they want you to do.  ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 02, 2020, 07:52:32 pm
Yep BD139 was right .... Going south fast.. |O
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 02, 2020, 07:59:26 pm
Ugh I hate it when I'm right because I'm a cynical bastard  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 02, 2020, 08:03:59 pm
I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.


For what?  For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed  infrastructers and industries.  How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?

1: I suppose that they release the bug  for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the  west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of  all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve  to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).

Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
 

*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be  a landmark.

I take back the polite approach. You're a nutjob. Go and bother someone else, the adults are trying to have a conversation.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vodka on April 02, 2020, 08:10:31 pm
Conspiracy theories , yes , yes.
 But the last 20 years have been virus. The bacteries seem  to be of holidays.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on April 02, 2020, 08:19:53 pm
I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.


For what?  For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed  infrastructers and industries.  How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?

1: I suppose that they release the bug  for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the  west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of  all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve  to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).

Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
 

*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be  a landmark.
:--
Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.


It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans.   This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Gyro on April 02, 2020, 08:28:11 pm
It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans.   This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...

People seem to think that, just because we're at the top of the food chain, we don't have natural predators any more. It's just that we've mostly conquered the ones with loud growls and big teeth, because we can see those coming!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: thinkfat on April 02, 2020, 08:32:22 pm
Conspiracy theories , yes , yes.

I wonder why, of all other plausible causes (like, a lab accident that was being tried to cover up), you chose biological warfare / world domination scheme by the Chinese government as the most likely option.  :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: tautech on April 02, 2020, 08:38:32 pm
Conspiracy theories , yes , yes.

I wonder why, of all other plausible causes (like, a lab accident that was being tried to cover up), you chose biological warfare / world domination scheme by the Chinese government as the most likely option.  :palm:
Yes well there's an opposite conspiracy theory to the one vodka proposes mentioned briefly earlier in this thread and I've heard it too from other sources.
Still, if we go down this path this thread for sure will be locked.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on April 02, 2020, 09:14:28 pm
Quote
I take back the polite approach. You're a nutjob.

Ahem. You don't have to read his stuff, never mind reply to it. And you don't have to be nasty it politeness doesn't get the response you wanted.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on April 02, 2020, 09:18:34 pm
Quote
Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.

Sometimes, conspiracy theories turn out to be true  >:D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 02, 2020, 09:47:34 pm
Quote
I take back the polite approach. You're a nutjob.

Ahem. You don't have to read his stuff, never mind reply to it. And you don't have to be nasty it politeness doesn't get the response you wanted.

You don't have to read my stuff, never mind reply to it.

But kind of the whole point of being here is to read, consider and reply. If I didn't read 'his stuff' how would I know whether he had something germane to add? If people, including myself, don't reply to it, how is he going to ever understand that what he's saying is nonsense.

I'll give somebody the benefit of the doubt and I did. But when they then persist in trying to spread conspiracy nonsense in the face of a polite hint that it is unwelcome balderdash, while people are trying to have a sensible conversation about something really quite serious then experience tells me that patience, politeness and prevarication don't get the job done. If one pussyfoots with nutjobs, trolls, knuckle-draggers and other like denizens they just continue dragging the conversation down into the swamp.

I find it ironic that your post immediately after the one I'm replying to could be characterised as shit-stirring. So I'm not allowed to be blunt with people, but it's fine for you to just mindlessly stir it? Some cognitive disconnect there, I feel.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on April 02, 2020, 10:49:07 pm
[deleted]
Forget that. Waste of time.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 02, 2020, 11:30:12 pm
It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans.   This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...

People seem to think that, just because we're at the top of the food chain, we don't have natural predators any more. It's just that we've mostly conquered the ones with loud growls and big teeth, because we can see those coming!
I agree. And the evidence pointing towards a natural cause is that everybody on the entire world is equally badly affected. And the signs have been on the wall for a long time. Very contageous diseases are wrecking havoc through 'our' lifestock regulary. This time it is our turn but unlike lifestock mass killing is not considered an option.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: coppice on April 02, 2020, 11:41:24 pm
It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans.   This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...
People seem to think that, just because we're at the top of the food chain, we don't have natural predators any more. It's just that we've mostly conquered the ones with loud growls and big teeth, because we can see those coming!
We are reaching the point where the oldest people you know were probably born in the era of antibiotics. My grandparents could tell me horrible stories of healthy school friends who were happily playing cricket, got a minor injury, and were dead a few days later from a runaway infection. People in developed countries have gotten used to living a long life with a low risk of dying of infection along the way. They fear things like cancer and accidents instead.  Most people aren't psychologically prepared for a serious fear of infections to return. They treat this like the stuff of science fiction stories. I see people treating stories of MRSA outbreaks in hospitals like they were science fiction tales.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rick Law on April 02, 2020, 11:59:13 pm
...
...
USA wide is just over two weeks but differs greatly depending on State.  According to University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projection, the USA cumulative is April 16 peak.

By state:
Vermont, NY, NJ are the earliest peaking April 9;
Michigan, Connecticut, Louisiana peaks April 10;
skipping to number 23...
Georgia, Mississippi,North Carolina peaks April 22.
Last to peak are Maryland on May 14 and Virginia on May 17.

So, we will be sweating it out on different dates...

I am "disowning" the numbers I quoted in the reply above...
  The numbers were quoted from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation  (IHME), I am not longer confident in the numbers.

At time time I quoted the numbers, NJ (where I am) deaths-per-day projection was off by 9: 59 projected verse 66 actual and within the uncertainty bar.  The peak projected is 104 deaths-per-day on April 9.  The uncertainty bar range at peak is 58 to 142.

Today, I check the numbers: 4/2 deaths projected was 66 but actual was 202.  We are not even half-way up the projected-curve to the peak of 104 (142 at max of uncertainty), we are already at (about) 2x the projected peak, and at 1.4x the max-uncertainty-bar peak.

Looking at local paper's the by-county numbers, it was a general increase instead of one-off sudden rise at a particular locale or due to a particular event.  One event they did predict for 4/1/2020 that might have an effect - that NJ hospital beds needed would exceed available on 4/1.  If that is where the projection went wrong, they way under estimated the impact of the event.

For right now I have no confident in the projection.  I will however continue to compare their projections verses actual.  As they update the projection, may be it can return to be a useful tool.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 12:05:11 am
We are reaching the point where the oldest people you know were probably born in the era of antibiotics. My grandparents could tell me horrible stories of healthy school friends who were happily playing cricket, got a minor injury, and were dead a few days later from a runaway infection.

Yeah. If you say that someone would have had to have been old enough when antibiotics became generally available  (1944-45) to recall tales of death from common infections earlier - lets say 14-15 years old - that would put them born in 1930, which would make them at least 90 years old now. That's 0.8% of the population here in the UK.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on April 03, 2020, 03:55:50 am
Bill Gates interview by Trevor Noah

APR 02, 2020

http://www.cc.com/episodes/iecnjn/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-april-2--2020---bill-gates-season-25-ep-25083 (http://www.cc.com/episodes/iecnjn/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-april-2--2020---bill-gates-season-25-ep-25083)

Interview is at 7.08-29.04

This is the only link I know about. "US-centric" to some degree, but not at all completely so. Worth watching in my opinion.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on April 03, 2020, 07:14:55 am

China has started tracking down infected people with zero symptoms.

Today Chinese CDC has reported 2 confirmed new cases and 60 tested positive cases with zero symptoms, scattered around the country.
It seems like there MIGHT be a second wave in China. It took Wuhan about 3 weeks to go into full eruption mode, so presumable zero symptom cases can't be all isolated from society, China has less than 3 weeks to roll vaccines.
So far zero symptom cases have been considered much less contagious, but nevertheless all you need is a spark to light a forest.



 :-//  Are they using ancient magic or The Force to track them down ?

or deploying 'Minority Report' and 'ANON' movie tech to know in advance who is going to get infected with 'C' ?  :o

Chinese CDC could be talking through their nether regions for all we know to justify their pay and existence, and or trying to flog MIC vaccines that may contain placebo grade ingredients,
money for jam from paranoid injected suckers that if they don't get the sniffles during a 'flu period' or palmdemic they believe the vaccine must be working =   :palm:

These 'mutating' reports from China are getting hard to believe, and smell like an excuse to pump more vaccines into everyone,
adding to previous vaccines that already mess with peoples natural resistance to polluted air, unprotected or 'wrong way go back!' intercourse  :scared:
and greasy shopping trolley handles   ::)


BTW: how far off are most members here from bankruptcy, unemployment, and dim prospects for future recovery if this global fiasCo continues for a few more weeks?

i.e. if they drag it out for months, most of you will wish you took your chances with 'C" either being a real threat or engineered money shifting panic job (again..)
and take a coin toss gamble whether you got the Fear Flu sniffles or not  :popcorn:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: dietert1 on April 03, 2020, 07:34:23 am
If they had developed sufficient test capacity they could have tested thousands of healthy people and found some of them positive. I think this is what will happen in any country after passing the peak.

It confirms what we already know: This virus is more like AIDS. Apparently healthy people infecting others without knowing. This is the known reason why it is so much worse than flu. We will probably all need to carry masks very soon in order to loosen the lockdown.

Regards, Dieter

PS: Since i am into patient monitoring (pulse oximetry), my business will rather increase than decrease. But who knows.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Homer J Simpson on April 03, 2020, 09:35:07 am


IHME Data UPDATE 2 April Why This is NOT like the Flu

From: https://www.youtube.com/user/blancolirio/videos (https://www.youtube.com/user/blancolirio/videos)

Interesting look at some data.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HsDN57zmeE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HsDN57zmeE)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on April 03, 2020, 09:35:24 am
There are some vaccines being trialled. What is a concern is there will be less testing to get the vaccine out more quickly. There may be long term side effects we did not anticipate :scared:. Remember thalidomide.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2020, 11:56:13 am
There are some vaccines being trialled. What is a concern is there will be less testing to get the vaccine out more quickly. There may be long term side effects we did not anticipate :scared:. Remember thalidomide.

Yes, this could have serious repercussions in coming decades.  If they rush drugs and vaccines and they end up doing wide spread harm it will vindicate the anti-vaxxers, strengthen their movement and also enflame the anti-science disease that has been spreading.  Ultimately that could throw us into another dark ages.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on April 03, 2020, 12:52:12 pm
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.

-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on April 03, 2020, 01:03:52 pm
Yes, even such dangerous disease (mortality rate which is likely going to be somewhere around 100x the seasonal flu if unconstrained, or maybe 10x the seasonal flu with relatively strong limiting actions (ballpark)), isn't dangerous enough to allow hastily tested, potentially very dangerous vaccine.

Vaccine testing is so damn good that people simply don't see the huge risks involved. The risks are actively minimized, which is hard and slow work. It's only due to this hard work vaccines are so safe, they inherently aren't.

Say, if the COVID was 10-20x more deadly than it is (actual mortality rate being what the CFR is right now), then that would probably warrant taking the risk with rushed vaccinations. The risk would be worth taking.

This is why we aren't going to see a vaccine in the very near future. However bad this is, it isn't bad enough to take massive risks. These risks involve things like higher mortality rate from the vaccine than from the disease itself, or serious permanent injury.

(See the Pandemrix vs. narcolepsy thing as an example case of a hastily tested vaccination; and it wasn't too bad, it was tested fairly well because of the non-severity of the swine flu.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SparkyFX on April 03, 2020, 01:19:58 pm
As they update the projection, may be it can return to be a useful tool.
This is a force of nature, the numbers can stem from observations, but slight deviations in several factors make huge differences in 2 weeks time. It is not as if you can plan how such a virus spreads or prepare within short amounts of time.

[...]If they rush drugs and vaccines and they end up doing wide spread harm it will vindicate the anti-vaxxers, strengthen their movement and also enflame the anti-science disease that has been spreading.  Ultimately that could throw us into another dark ages.
It is not as if anti-vaxxers needed reasons or evidence, or had a concerted effort other than spreading misinformation and selling snake oil. They probably ignore actual cases because it would constitute that the source of information can actually be trusted, although they told otherwise for ages - or lose the integrity they never had.

There are risks, otoh there are rules in place because of it. I mean a vaccine by definition is meant to prevent damage, so people producing them should be used to the thought that this would be a bad idea to throw rules overboard. Rushing might in their circle just mean that they have the highest priority at this and not let bureaucracy have this laying around too long, have staff on every role that is needed and so on.

It sometimes is really just the wording and how people interpret it by themselves, often just to save ones face.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on April 03, 2020, 01:29:29 pm
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.

-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)

They drill down to local levels even, e.g., US State and County. Really interesting and potentially valuable for providing measures of NPI, especially with the pre and post data. Modellers bonanza I would think.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on April 03, 2020, 01:34:50 pm
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.

-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)

They drill down to local levels even, e.g., US State and County. Really interesting and potentially valuable for providing measures of NPI, especially with the pre and post data. Modellers bonanza I would think.

Really curious how details and in depth of the population data, that Google owns right now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on April 03, 2020, 01:43:03 pm
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 01:44:31 pm
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.

-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)

They drill down to local levels even, e.g., US State and County. Really interesting and potentially valuable for providing measures of NPI, especially with the pre and post data. Modellers bonanza I would think.

Really curious how details and in depth of the population data, that Google owns right now.

Completely unsurprising seeing as it has been demonstrated that you can in practice fool Google into thinking there's a traffic jam just by walking a small trolley full of Android phones around the streets of Berlin.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 01:53:13 pm
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.

Medical experiments on prisoners who can't freely give informed consent? Not exactly a morally sound idea. I think somebody needs to read a history book or two.

How about we leave human medical experimentation to only happening on genuine volunteers who have been told the risks and volunteer out of a desire to help their fellow man?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: BravoV on April 03, 2020, 02:08:28 pm
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.

-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)

They drill down to local levels even, e.g., US State and County. Really interesting and potentially valuable for providing measures of NPI, especially with the pre and post data. Modellers bonanza I would think.

Really curious how details and in depth of the population data, that Google owns right now.

Completely unsurprising seeing as it has been demonstrated that you can in practice fool Google into thinking there's a traffic jam just by walking a small trolley full of Android phones around the streets of Berlin.

That was like a drop of water in the ocean.

Also looking at the vast data collected just recently in corvid19 mode, don't believe there are fools are trying to prank Google data, that will needs a really serious resources to make it matter in the statistics gathered.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: MT on April 03, 2020, 03:08:53 pm
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.

Medical experiments on prisoners who can't freely give informed consent? Not exactly a morally sound idea. I think somebody needs to read a history book or two.

How about we leave human medical experimentation to only happening on genuine volunteers who have been told the risks and volunteer out of a desire to help their fellow man?

Oh no problem, have been done in UK, e.g Theralizumab/TGN1412 scandal a phase 1 clinical trials conducted by Parexel at Northwick Park and St. Mark's Hospital, London, on 13 March 2006. Healthy volunteers recruited to the study given £2,000. Trial resulted in intensive care hospitalization of all six volunteers who got the drug, four of whom suffered multiple organ dysfunctions and some lost lims and almost death.

Or like the svine flue scandal in Sweden due to Glaxo Smith garbage experimental drug causing youngsters insomnia decease
for life, cost gov(tax payers of course as usual) 10 million in damages.

I hope folks takes Bill Gates vaccine he now tries to make obligatorily for the entire planet, of course made at his bio labs! 

Interesting how quickly people forgets about prior scandals in these times of "pro vaccination choirs" like Denmark who some weeks ago without any evidence at all for anything just slammed through a compulsory vaccination law , if you refuse go to jail! Hail NWO TECHNOCRACY id say.

Ah, and then we have his royal majesty Duterte shoot to kill order!
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/04/philippines-president-duterte-shoot-to-kill-order-pandemic/ (https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/04/philippines-president-duterte-shoot-to-kill-order-pandemic/)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 03:28:21 pm
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.

Medical experiments on prisoners who can't freely give informed consent? Not exactly a morally sound idea. I think somebody needs to read a history book or two.

How about we leave human medical experimentation to only happening on genuine volunteers who have been told the risks and volunteer out of a desire to help their fellow man?

Oh no problem, have been done in UK, e.g Theralizumab/TGN1412 scandal a phase 1 clinical trials conducted by Parexel at Northwick Park and St. Mark's Hospital, London, on 13 March 2006. Healthy volunteers recruited to the study given £2,000. Trial resulted in intensive care hospitalization of all six volunteers who got the drug, four of whom suffered multiple organ dysfunctions and some lost lims and almost death.

Or like the svine flue scandal in Sweden due to Glaxo Smith garbage experimental drug causing youngsters insomnia decease
for life, cost gov(tax payers of course as usual) 10 million in damages.

Yeah? And exactly how many of these were prisoners when they volunteered? None.

What's your point, that drug trials sometimes have adverse outcomes? Well apart from the obvious "Yeah, we kind of all knew that." reaction, it is exactly because drug trials have risks that it is not ethically or morally acceptable to get people to participate in them on any basis other than fully informed consent, freely given.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 03, 2020, 03:33:17 pm
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 04:09:39 pm
Aka bollocks

My father in law is currently lying in hospital in an artificially induced coma with one collapsed lung and kidney failure at the moment and the family are busy carving up his possessions before he’s even croaked. There’s even speak of someone trying to get him a copy of his will he forgot to sign in case he wakes up.

That’s coronavirus! Not the media promoted version or that alternative theory horse shit above. Humans are horrible animals.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on April 03, 2020, 04:11:11 pm
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.

Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on April 03, 2020, 04:13:00 pm
Aka bollocks

My father in law is currently lying in hospital in an artificially induced coma with one collapsed lung and kidney failure at the moment and the family are busy carving up his possessions before he’s even croaked. There’s even speak of someone trying to get him a copy of his will he forgot to sign in case he wakes up.

That’s coronavirus! Not the Main Stream Media version or that horse shit above. Humans are horrible animals.

Friends aunt just died and just spoke to another person who'n father in law just died. Yea they are all part of this "conspiracy"...... Sadly, when we created a functional society we turned our backs on natural selection and the idiots get to reproduce!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 04:15:01 pm
Indeed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 04:31:12 pm
Sadly, when we created a functional society we turned our backs on natural selection and the idiots get to reproduce!

Well, perhaps god in her infinite wisdom has sent us a virus designed to wipe out whole families that don't believe in it as a spot of supernatural selection.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on April 03, 2020, 04:33:13 pm
This is one of those events where everyone will know family or personal friends/colleagues who didn't make it. Not to mention celebrity deaths that everyone in their local/national/worldwide audiences mourn. Not to mention the long-term economic and health-care issues for those that DID make it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SilverSolder on April 03, 2020, 04:35:11 pm
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.

For some people, it is psychologically easier to believe we are subjected to a hoax, than it is to accept how random the world actually is....
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 03, 2020, 04:35:44 pm
Nothing to see. Like in "Germany". The biggest FUCK in human history since 9/11!
 :-DD :-DD :-DD
When people say 'critical thinking' they are full of BS.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 03, 2020, 04:35:59 pm
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.

Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
Then stop the bullying.
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 04:39:06 pm
If you come up with a load of rubbish expect to be corrected.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on April 03, 2020, 04:39:22 pm
Unfortunately independent/citizen journalism means being a crackpot.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on April 03, 2020, 04:40:48 pm
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.

Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
Then stop the bullying.
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!

In case you forgot. I am the one that get's to ban you when you have pissed me off enough, and if you think that proves your stupid little theories right then I'll tell you while i still have the chance that it does not!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 04:43:12 pm
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.

Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
Then stop the bullying.
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!

You're not being bullied. You say something you know will be contentious, you deliberately bait the moderators, one of them says "prove it." At this point you run off  crying to all and sundry that you're being bullied while simultaneously doing the rhetorical equivalent of trying to take your ball away with you. What are you, three years old?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on April 03, 2020, 05:04:23 pm
Been thinking about this for weeks (I am sure I was not alone) and am now reading it in Mass Media. How long before we see immunity certificates? Don't know, maybe 6 weeks in the US. I think that we will see fakes a few minutes later, or maybe well before.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/immunity-passport-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/immunity-passport-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 05:06:31 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 03, 2020, 05:21:19 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
In Croatia  they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SkyMaster on April 03, 2020, 05:24:00 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.

Maybe I am wrong, but I can imagine that some persons would want to be infected in hope of then be "immunized" afterward, and then be free from the lock-down. I can see this spin out of control.

 :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 05:25:37 pm
I can imagine that. Their funeral. I think I’ve had it and am recovering still. It’s fucking horrible.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 03, 2020, 05:43:40 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
I  gather authorities won't take kindly to any and all attempts at fraud and will bring the full force of the law down on people. Just look at how they treat people who've been deliberately spitting or coughing.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 03, 2020, 05:45:57 pm
Been thinking about this for weeks (I am sure I was not alone) and am now reading it in Mass Media. How long before we see immunity certificates?
Not quite sure I like the idea. My mind quickly wanders to the image of a yellow hexagram you can attach to your jacket.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on April 03, 2020, 05:46:36 pm
Something interesting is going on here.

Does anyone recognize this pattern elsewhere? It seems truly odd.

First, just a few days ago, the government proudly informed us that the testing capacity goes up to 3000/day (as a response to the critique that we are not testing enough). Looking at the data supplied by THL (the only official source of numbers as of now), the actual testing went down at the same time, instead, and has kept there. Likely because the official criteria to get tested haven't changed: symptoms need to be serious enough to put you in hospital care to be tested. Totally unsurprisingly, #tests correlates to #positives, so it "seems" the epidemic is now under control because the number of new cases per day has also dropped and stayed there. (See attachment)

(Of course, at the same time, the epidemic is better under control because it seems most of the people have taken this quite seriously and following common sense. This doesn't explain the odd data, though.)

Another weird thing I'm looking at are mortality numbers. From the beginning until a few days ago, both the # of cases and # of deaths were collected from the hospitals by the largest newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat, and published as open dataset (visualized e.g. by https://korona.kans.io/ ). A few days ago, THL, the authority, started collecting and publishing the numbers, so Helsingin Sanomat stopped producing the data due to it becoming "unnecessary". The interesting caveat here is that the THL dataset does not record the deaths at all - so it seems to me, there is no reliable source of data for deaths currently. I hope to be proved wrong.

Oddly, unlike elsewhere in the world, the death rate hasn't followed the number of positive cases as seen approx. two weeks earlier. It has been an interesting step function and remained almost constant 2 deaths/day since 2020-03-25. As an only exception, one day we had zero deaths, and the next day we had four. The cumulative death toll has followed the pattern 1,3,5,7,9,11,13,13,17,19,21 (earlier today), and suddenly went back to 20 as of later today. This data is from the local news sources.

Today one particular local authority reported three supposedly new deaths in an elderly care facility, but since no one is now in response of counting the total, no one knows whether these are included in the earlier numbers (not being new after all) or not.

Not saying it's a conspiracy or coverup, but this pattern just seems so weird I want to hear your input on it. I'm suspecting there is something more to this. Of course, if the shit really hits the fan here like it did in Sweden already, there's no way deaths can be covered up. But a few dozen might go easily unnoticed, especially given the knowingly problematic service quality in elderly care (a subject of a lot of critical political discussion just before the pandemic hit), where deaths due to neglicence have been reported before. (It would be especially interesting to hear Nominal Animal's input on this.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 03, 2020, 05:50:58 pm
Today one particular local authority reported three supposedly new deaths in an elderly care facility, but since no one is now in response of counting the total, no one knows whether these are included in the earlier numbers (not being new after all) or not.
The Dutch bureau for statistics is registering a much larger (abnormal) spike in deaths compared to people officially dying from Corona.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2020, 05:51:12 pm
Can we agree that if Trump promotes a drug or vaccine as to showing "he did a good job" and "he is fucking great at everything, wait and see"... he tries it on himself first.  ?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 06:00:09 pm
Can we agree that if Trump promotes a drug or vaccine as to showing "he did a good job" and "he is fucking great at everything, wait and see"... he tries it on himself first.  ?

Hopefully he can check efficacy of sodium thiopental first.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on April 03, 2020, 06:07:01 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)

Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 06:11:04 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
In Croatia  they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..

That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 06:25:12 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)

Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.

Of course the source of this is impeccable. After all, the CIA have never been known to distort the truth or mislead people for their own political ends. Glad we're finally getting data from such an honest, reliable, trustworthy source that has never been implicated in murder, torture, or commercial drug smuggling to illicitly fund a revolution in another country, let alone misinformation campaigns. Glad we've got that straight.

Why would you think I was being sarcastic? A bunch of spies and manipulators are the obvious choice to turn to for epidemiological data. There's no possibility that they might be trying to sew some kind of story that puts a country that they regard as political enemies in a bad light.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 06:28:31 pm
 :palm: Indeed. This is just being lined up for a political or international hit job.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on April 03, 2020, 06:30:06 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)

Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.

Yes yes i vividly remember them in your link showing, ehhhm.., "evidence" of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 03, 2020, 06:38:44 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
In Croatia  they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.
UK has WHOLE country covered with 10s of millions of cameras. We are all living in full blown police states that are currently not abusing it on large scale..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 06:41:00 pm
Yes but being the UK most of them are broken though  :-DD
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 03, 2020, 06:47:09 pm
 :-DD :-DD :-DD
Yes but being the UK most of them are broken though  :-DD
Sound like my country !!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 06:47:21 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
In Croatia  they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.
UK has WHOLE country covered with 10s of millions of cameras. We are all living in full blown police states that are currently not abusing it on large scale..

That political chip on your shoulder is preventing you from reading my comment as what it was, a neutral statement, into some imagined attack on your state and implicit support for my state, which it wasn't.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: vad on April 03, 2020, 06:49:50 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)

Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.

Of course the source of this is impeccable. After all, the CIA have never been known to distort the truth or mislead people for their own political ends. Glad we're finally getting data from such an honest, reliable, trustworthy source that has never been implicated in murder, torture, or commercial drug smuggling to illicitly fund a revolution in another country, let alone misinformation campaigns. Glad we've got that straight.

Why would you think I was being sarcastic? A bunch of spies and manipulators are the obvious choice to turn to for epidemiological data. There's no possibility that they might be trying to sew some kind of story that puts a country that they regard as political enemies in a bad light.
I got it. In your opinion NYT are either not trustworthy or are not able to check facts. Presumably, because you think NYT was implicated in murder and torture...

Who are credible then? Xinhua or Russia Today?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: edavid on April 03, 2020, 06:58:34 pm
A colleague of the wife of a colleague of mine turned to be a confirmed symptom-less case.

How did the symptom-less person come to be tested?   Was this in Shenzhen?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 07:03:31 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)

Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.

Of course the source of this is impeccable. After all, the CIA have never been known to distort the truth or mislead people for their own political ends. Glad we're finally getting data from such an honest, reliable, trustworthy source that has never been implicated in murder, torture, or commercial drug smuggling to illicitly fund a revolution in another country, let alone misinformation campaigns. Glad we've got that straight.

Why would you think I was being sarcastic? A bunch of spies and manipulators are the obvious choice to turn to for epidemiological data. There's no possibility that they might be trying to sew some kind of story that puts a country that they regard as political enemies in a bad light.
I got it. In your opinion NYT are either not trustworthy or are not able to check facts. Presumably, because you think NYT was implicated in murder and torture...

Who are credible then? Xinhua or Russia Today?

Why because I distrust reporting based on statements by your country's bunch of bastards do you assume that I'm going to advocate some other country's reporting of their bunch of bastards as trustworthy? Some of us haven't bought into this whole partisan thing.

It's got nothing to do with the NYT, they are just reporting what has been said by another.  Its not an editorial, it's reportage. Just because the report is in the NYT doesn't lend the contents of what they are reporting on the imprimatur of truth. The reporting may be as accurate as you like while the matter reported is completely flawed.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2020, 07:07:08 pm
In other more important news.  The logarithmic graphs are showing a downward deflection.  Inflection point?

... or lack of tests?
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 03, 2020, 07:09:51 pm
...
It's got nothing to do with the NYT, they are just reporting what has been said by another.  Its not an editorial, it's reportage. Just because the report is in the NYT doesn't lend the contents of what they are reporting on the imprimatur of truth. The reporting may be as accurate as you like while the matter reported is completely flawed.

 :-DD   :palm:
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 07:11:35 pm
...
It's got nothing to do with the NYT, they are just reporting what has been said by another.  Its not an editorial, it's reportage. Just because the report is in the NYT doesn't lend the contents of what they are reporting on the imprimatur of truth. The reporting may be as accurate as you like while the matter reported is completely flawed.

 :-DD   :palm:

Says the man who regards YouTube fringe conspiracists as a reliable source.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on April 03, 2020, 07:13:31 pm
In other more important news.  The logarithmic graphs are showing a downward deflection.  Inflection point?

... or lack of tests?

Not really, it almost looks like a testing/reporting bottleneck. We stay the same for 3 days then jump.... again. Bearing in mind that the definition of someone who has it in the UK seems to be that it's so bad that they end up in hospital. The people that just feel a bit off and could have been infectious for up to 2 weeks are told to stay home and not inform anyone of their condition. It's almost like they don't what to know the real numbers and are hoping to be able to report less to justify their suicidal approach at the start.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 03, 2020, 07:13:44 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
In Croatia  they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.
UK has WHOLE country covered with 10s of millions of cameras. We are all living in full blown police states that are currently not abusing it on large scale..

That political chip on your shoulder is preventing you from reading my comment as what it was, a neutral statement, into some imagined attack on your state and implicit support for my state, which it wasn't.

I don't have political chip on my shoulder, bu you might have, being sensitive to my comment. I wasn't counterattacking but merely stated that we all live in countries that have all infrastructure (technical, military, police, intelligence services) of a full blown Orwellian state. It is just that our countries usually don't abuse it...  That is actually great. They choose to do the right thing..

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Simon on April 03, 2020, 07:22:30 pm
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
In Croatia  they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..

That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.

stupid people need stupid measures. If it's not too much to ask I'd rather have a bed in a hospital if I were to get this despite all precautions I am taking and not have it taken away from me by the multitudes of pricks that think they know better. The problem is that the vast majority of the population do not have the intellect to grasp that the figures we see today were set in motion 1-2 weeks ago and that if today it's a bit shit then in 2 weeks we will properly screwed!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 03, 2020, 07:22:57 pm
There are some vaccines being trialled. What is a concern is there will be less testing to get the vaccine out more quickly. There may be long term side effects we did not anticipate :scared:. Remember thalidomide.

Are you legend (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Legend_(film)) ?  ;D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2020, 07:24:07 pm
In other more important news.  The logarithmic graphs are showing a downward deflection.  Inflection point?

... or lack of tests?

Not really, it almost looks like a testing/reporting bottleneck. We stay the same for 3 days then jump.... again. Bearing in mind that the definition of someone who has it in the UK seems to be that it's so bad that they end up in hospital. The people that just feel a bit off and could have been infectious for up to 2 weeks are told to stay home and not inform anyone of their condition. It's almost like they don't what to know the real numbers and are hoping to be able to report less to justify their suicidal approach at the start.

All of the logarithmics on JH are showing downward deflection globally over a 1-2 week period.  Obviously this means we are only fucked slightly less quickly, but mathematically a good candidate for an inflection point.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 07:28:23 pm

UK has WHOLE country covered with 10s of millions of cameras. We are all living in full blown police states that are currently not abusing it on large scale..

That political chip on your shoulder is preventing you from reading my comment as what it was, a neutral statement, into some imagined attack on your state and implicit support for my state, which it wasn't.

I don't have political chip on my shoulder, bu you might have, being sensitive to my comment. I wasn't counterattacking but merely stated that we all live in countries that have all infrastructure (technical, military, police, intelligence services) of a full blown Orwellian state. It is just that our countries usually don't abuse it...  That is actually great. They choose to do the right thing..

I think it was a reasonable assumption on my behalf given you started "UK...".

I wasn't counterattacking but merely stated that we all live in ...

Except you didn't "merely state..." i.e. state without any extraneous remarks. If you had I wouldn't have taken it as I did. If you don't want people to take what you say as nationalistic, the best approach would be to not prefix it with a remark that prima facia appears to be nationalistic.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 03, 2020, 07:29:01 pm
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.

Medical experiments on prisoners who can't freely give informed consent? Not exactly a morally sound idea. I think somebody needs to read a history book or two.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_syphilis_experiment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_syphilis_experiment)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guatemala_syphilis_experiment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guatemala_syphilis_experiment)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Siwastaja on April 03, 2020, 07:30:23 pm
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ (https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc)

This way of presenting the statistics helps visualize the deflection point.

(With that, countries can't be compared at the relative point where the deflection happens, because the axes show absolute cases, not cases per population, so small countries appear to more left than larger countries. Yet, you can easily visualize the deflection point, and also see the changes in testing procedures (sudden jump downward, then back to the original slope.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 03, 2020, 07:41:11 pm
Sadly, when we created a functional society we turned our backs on natural selection and the idiots get to reproduce!

Well, perhaps god in her infinite wisdom has sent us a virus designed to wipe out whole families that don't believe in it as a spot of supernatural selection.  :)

and god created a virus out of its image and likeness   >:D
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 07:46:33 pm
That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.

stupid people need stupid measures....

Indeed they do. Just as long as when the emergency is over 'wise' men don't decide to hang onto the apparatus of mass control to deal with all the 'stupid' people who disagree with them about something.

A guy I know who does security research at Cambridge has a good phrase "social hygiene" meaning that society shouldn't leave anything lying around that could 'go bad' and poison society e.g. wholesale surveillance mechanisms that are legitimately needed to cope with some genuine emergency ought to be conspicuously dismantled once the emergency is over, not merely mothballed and left lying around waiting for some proto-despot to abuse them. There's a historical record of apparently innocuous stuff that has become poison in the wrong hands (e.g. Holland's records of citizens' religion, which took on a totally different flavour in light of the Nazi invasion of May 1940). In the same vein there's the well observed 'ratchet effect' where regulations for emergencies don't disappear after the emergency (e.g. Britain's pub opening hours restrictions and the Official Secrets Act were both 'temporary' WWI measures that are still with us over 100 years later.).
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: 2N3055 on April 03, 2020, 07:57:49 pm
If you don't want people to take what you say as nationalistic, the best approach would be to not prefix it with a remark that prima facia appears to be nationalistic.
Fair enough! But still, you reacted a bit sensitive.. I'm sorry you read it that way, it't wasn't my intention to counterattack.
I personally very much dislike nationalism, being firsthand witness of all the suffering it creates....
All the best..
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 03, 2020, 07:58:14 pm
Been thinking about this for weeks (I am sure I was not alone) and am now reading it in Mass Media. How long before we see immunity certificates? Don't know, maybe 6 weeks in the US. I think that we will see fakes a few minutes later, or maybe well before.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/immunity-passport-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/immunity-passport-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html)

there are 2 problems
1) we are not yet sure (there are still some doubts) once you got past the disease you're immune
2) how good are those tests? Even 0.1% of false positives may get infected and start a new wave of pandemic

probably those certified people should also be regularly (even group test) tested for virus activity to reduce any further risks
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 08:02:11 pm
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ (https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc)

This way of presenting the statistics helps visualize the deflection point.

(With that, countries can't be compared at the relative point where the deflection happens, because the axes show absolute cases, not cases per population, so small countries appear to more left than larger countries. Yet, you can easily visualize the deflection point, and also see the changes in testing procedures (sudden jump downward, then back to the original slope.)

We've got to be a bit careful of scaling by population, as that can distort or misrepresent the situation in other ways.

One example. Consider two populations identical except that, one has 10,000 people, one has 1,000,000 people, both being infected with a disease with the characteristics of Covid-19 by a single 'patient zero'. For the first few days and weeks they will have identical numbers of infected, dead, recovered etc. Once the 10,000 person country has reached a point where effects show of 'proportion of population affected' show up, only then are the characteristics of the small and large population infection statistics going to diverge. The small population will show slowing while the large population will continue to grow at an unencumbered rate until it too hits the point where 'proportion of population' effects begin to show.

Instinct suggests to me that scaling by logn population (n to be determined) might be a better way of doing it as the other processes involved are exponential ones BUT I have not thought it through in detail so I may be talking out of my arse.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: not1xor1 on April 03, 2020, 08:07:02 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)

Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.

Of course the source of this is impeccable. After all, the CIA have never been known to distort the truth or mislead people for their own political ends. Glad we're finally getting data from such an honest, reliable, trustworthy source that has never been implicated in murder, torture, or commercial drug smuggling to illicitly fund a revolution in another country, let alone misinformation campaigns. Glad we've got that straight.

Why would you think I was being sarcastic? A bunch of spies and manipulators are the obvious choice to turn to for epidemiological data. There's no possibility that they might be trying to sew some kind of story that puts a country that they regard as political enemies in a bad light.

the truth is that you can trust neither of them
probably we will have to wait a few years for more reliable data
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 08:07:31 pm
there are 2 problems
1) we are not yet sure (there are still some doubts) once you got past the disease you're immune

That is so outside the normal patterns of disease and immunity that very strong evidence would be required to support that idea. Absent that very strong evidence this out to be treated as highly, highly, highly improbable.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Kilrah on April 03, 2020, 08:33:51 pm
I think I’ve had it and am recovering still. It’s fucking horrible.
I've problably had it but in a very mild form, basically a bad cold but not quite as bad as normal flu.

Reason I expect it was that is that a friend got hit pretty hard (2 trips to hospital) and we had met a few days before.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 03, 2020, 08:59:45 pm
Hopefully he can check efficacy of sodium thiopental first.
You say that but I'm sure it stops all ill effects of a Covid infection. No fever and no difficulty to breathe and very little chance of infecting anyone else.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: bd139 on April 03, 2020, 09:15:26 pm
Hopefully he can check efficacy of sodium thiopental first.
You say that but I'm sure it stops all ill effects of a Covid infection. No fever and no difficulty to breathe and very little chance of infecting anyone else.

True. However where did I say I was trying to cure him of Covid-19 :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on April 03, 2020, 10:21:12 pm
<snipped>

I've always been wondering what substance are you constantly on.


BS Awareness Supplements  :popcorn:

Still available in stores,
Fear Flu panic shoppers have been too busy hoarding dunny paper to notice it   :palm:

 


 :-*
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Rick Law on April 03, 2020, 10:53:03 pm
Can we agree that if Trump promotes a drug or vaccine as to showing "he did a good job" and "he is fucking great at everything, wait and see"... he tries it on himself first.  ?

Hopefully he can check efficacy of sodium thiopental first.

I hope the two drugs he was calling attention to will work.  They are both "proven safe" for other illnesses by the FDA for a long time, so harm is limited apart from the yet-unknown potential negatives for one already infected with the Wuhan Virus.

Two of the scientists on the task force and almost always by Trump's side on the daily update, Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci are good scientists.  The forces at play is "doing good science" vs "real condition on the ground".  Until a double-blind study is done, no scientist would say it works.  But then condition on the ground is hundreds of people are dying a day.  No doctor want to use a drug that is not yet proven to work - but waiting = more dead.

NY (State, not just NYC) is now using the drug(s) while also running test along side to verify effectiveness.  I hope scientific tests that is running along side can confirm effectiveness soon.

(ps: I am ignoring the two deaths in Arizona was caused by the drug as some news outlet has reported.  The couple did not take the drug - they took fish-tank cleaner which contains similar active ingredient.  Come-on, spoonful of fish tank cleaner with pop-drink?  That I consider Darwin at work.)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: VK3DRB on April 03, 2020, 11:05:29 pm
Criminal negligence, lies and a massive cover-up by the government...

https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html (https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html)

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Electro Detective on April 03, 2020, 11:10:40 pm

I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.


Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?


Then stop the bullying.
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!



In case you forgot. I am the one that get's to ban you when you have pissed me off enough, and if you think that proves your stupid little theories right then I'll tell you while i still have the chance that it does not!


@ hwj-d   please post the censored stuff again, but try tone it down a bit mate,
and put yourself in the Mods' shoes.. or flip flops ?  :-//  ;D

Simon has enough corpotrolls, bs conspiracy clowns, and idiots from other electronics forums causing drama here to deal with already  :scared:

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Bud on April 03, 2020, 11:47:28 pm
Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 03, 2020, 11:51:57 pm

@ hwj-d   please post the censored stuff again, but try tone it down a bit mate,
and put yourself in the Mods' shoes.. or flip flops ?  :-//  ;D

Simon has enough corpotrolls, bs conspiracy clowns, and idiots from other electronics forums causing drama here to deal with already  :scared:

Why do you want him to repost stuff that wasn't actually censored? It's all still there. And still as dumb as it was. And still full of bouncing e y e b r o w s.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Martin72 on April 03, 2020, 11:59:24 pm
Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)

America first, don´t you know ?  ;)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on April 04, 2020, 12:04:19 am
Criminal negligence, lies and a massive cover-up by the government...

https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html (https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html)

That's not the impression I got from the article which says that there were no positive cases onboard and the ones with the right kind of symptoms had matched for flu. Plus the disembarkers were supposed to self-isolate. All this at a time when the gravity of the situation wasn't really grasped by anyone, so locking up people on a docked boat just in case would have been equally tricky. I guess the assumption was that if any of those 15 test came back positive they could just pick up the appropriate people from their isolation.

For all his faults, Trump shows how difficult this stuff can be. Public officials have to weigh many competing factors in their decisions, and often they will get slated whatever they do. Internet warriors can focus on single issues and use hindsight, and in the end they're not held to account either.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 04, 2020, 12:18:28 am

I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.


Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?


Then stop the bullying.
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!



In case you forgot. I am the one that get's to ban you when you have pissed me off enough, and if you think that proves your stupid little theories right then I'll tell you while i still have the chance that it does not!


@ hwj-d   please post the censored stuff again, but try tone it down a bit mate,
and put yourself in the Mods' shoes.. or flip flops ?  :-//  ;D

Simon has enough corpotrolls, bs conspiracy clowns, and idiots from other electronics forums causing drama here to deal with already  :scared:

Yes, I understand that. And there has already been an announcement from me to Dave and Simon in which I have expressed understanding for the harmfulness of the forum, and I, for my part, have made some very favorable compromises here.

But there are a few things here for which I have no sympathy at all, and some forum participants come across granite in my place.

For example, when the possibility of a pluralistic exchange of opinions is led "ad hominem" by silly fascist attacks in order to disqualify counter-arguments from the outset. This reminds me more of sectarian behaviour, namely the exclusion of dissenters, with automatic self-affirmation through psychological group dynamic effects and hierarchies.

I have been an inhouse trainer and IT-Consultant long enough in my professional life to recognize when the parquet of good manners and togetherness is being abandoned.

I have a fundamentally different opinion on the lethality of this corona virus, and have many concrete examples and cinematic evidence that published film clips of the MSM are fake, and many large hospitals where corona patients claim overcrowding are actually empty.

It seems that some forum members can't deal with such information adequately, so that they feel compelled to react to it in an appropriately stupid and unflattering way.

Thanks for asking.

Edit: The two posts of mine, including the video, still exist. That's all there was.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: pipe2null on April 04, 2020, 12:40:27 am
Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)

America first, don´t you know ?  ;)

We ARE #1 in the whole freakin world!  For confirmed cases.  And we are leaving y'all in the dust!   Based on numbers with a long tag time between exposure, testing, and eventual reporting, so things are already quite a bit worse. :palm:  But snatching other countries' critical supplies is messed up in really bad ways.

I like this one about Trump and Fox News, although I think the tone is a bit too understated for my taste:
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/usa/id_87644726/corona-in-den-usa-wie-donald-trump-als-virus-bezwinger-dargestellt-wird.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/usa/id_87644726/corona-in-den-usa-wie-donald-trump-als-virus-bezwinger-dargestellt-wird.html)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Mr. Scram on April 04, 2020, 12:43:03 am
Criminal negligence, lies and a massive cover-up by the government...

https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html (https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html)
Jezus, we get it. Kangaroo goobermant bad.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 04, 2020, 12:54:00 am
I have a fundamentally different opinion on the lethality of this corona virus, and have many concrete examples and cinematic evidence that published film clips of the MSM are fake, and many large hospitals where corona patients claim overcrowding are actually empty.
Well, first of all Germany isn't hit very hard yet and Germany seems to have an extreme ICU capacity. Secondly the video you linked to is from the US. The US is just starting to get hit by the Corona virus. The big storm is yet to come and what the 'critical thinking' video shows is that hospitals are getting prepared. Go and film the same spots in a couple of weeks; I'm sure they are crowded with patients. Over here in the NL the ICU capacity of the hospitals has been scaled up to maximum capacity but nobody is sure it is enough. Even with patients being moved across the country and some even to Germany. BTW numbers from the Netherlands show that only about 1 in 5 persons ending up in the ICU survives and 20% to 30% of the Corona deaths aren't counted in the official statistics.

Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: mrflibble on April 04, 2020, 12:55:13 am
Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)

America first, don´t you know ?  ;)

We ARE #1 in the whole freakin world!  For confirmed cases.  And we are leaving y'all in the dust!
Make America .. virulent again?

Well done I suppose!  :-+  :-//
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 04, 2020, 01:01:11 am
Here is another one, good analysis of that situation.

Also look a Amazing Pollys analysis of the WHO, Bill Gates Foundation, and "Event 2O1", to understand backgrounds of the pandemic situation!

Don't miss Amazing Poly's other Videos to this problems.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAnSkQojE_4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAnSkQojE_4)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-727K585amo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-727K585amo)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: nctnico on April 04, 2020, 01:05:21 am
Here is another one, good analysis of that situation.
No. A typical case of denial. In a couple of weeks you'll see a video of her crying because someone dear to her died due to Corona and then she feels quilty for downplaying the seriousness. Mark my words. My wife knows quite a lot of people and at least 2 have died due to Corona. These persons wheren't old (below 60) and likely more to follow.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 04, 2020, 01:18:27 am
I have a fundamentally different opinion on the lethality of this corona virus, and have many concrete examples and cinematic evidence that published film clips of the MSM are fake, and many large hospitals where corona patients claim overcrowding are actually empty.
Well, first of all Germany isn't hit very hard yet and Germany seems to have an extreme ICU capacity. Secondly the video you linked to is from the US. The US is just starting to get hit by the Corona virus. The big storm is yet to come and what the 'critical thinking' video shows is that hospitals are getting prepared. Go and film the same spots in a couple of weeks; I'm sure they are crowded with patients. Over here in the NL the ICU capacity of the hospitals has been scaled up to maximum capacity but nobody is sure it is enough. Even with patients being moved across the country and some even to Germany. BTW numbers from the Netherlands show that only about 1 in 5 persons ending up in the ICU survives and 20% to 30% of the Corona deaths aren't counted in the official statistics.

Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!
Ok, that's a different tone, in a positive sense.
All I say is, we'll see.

The current numbers speak another language. Many highly respected scientists and doctors speak a different language. However, I only have this in German. My recommendation and request, therefore, is to look into the analysis of Amazing Polly. The German contributions I can deliver via PM, if desired. I have dealt with the problem for a long time, without having to fall for monocausalities now.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 04, 2020, 01:26:34 am
Here is another one, good analysis of that situation.
No. A typical case of denial. In a couple of weeks you'll see a video of her crying because someone dear to her died due to Corona and then she feels quilty for downplaying the seriousness. Mark my words. My wife knows quite a lot of people and at least 2 have died due to Corona. These persons wheren't old (below 60) and likely more to follow.
Your faith is sacred to me, of course.  ;)

It's not about convincing anyone. You can only convince yourself.

I hope for all our sakes this thing has a happy ending for all of us. But I see also an agenda behind it, that many people seem to be unaware of.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on April 04, 2020, 01:31:29 am
I don't see how a personal experience should make a difference, however sad it is. It would sure bias your own perception of reality, but unfortunately, the severity of a pandemic is just judged by numbers... Hard facts.

Anyway.

I really have heard of mixed opinions from serious people in the medical field so far. I admit I absolutely don't know what to think at the moment. Not that it even makes a difference anyway, as we have no choice but follow the orders of our governments and be reasonably cautious otherwise.

Some specialists seem to think we are overreacting, some clearly state that we are not doing enough. In both camps, many are saying we aren't doing things right at the moment though, so there seems to be a small sad consensus on this, while we are pedalling to get it over with. It's also sad to see that we seem to kindly ignore what those that "succeeded" (relatively) did, and what they are currently suggesting us, while our figures keep growing despite the confinement.

One thing that is factually frightening about this virus is not necessarily the numbers in the end, but how the victims' life ends when they are the unlucky ones. Respiratory infections are always awful when they get bad, but this one can get REALLY bad - people basically end up "drowning" in their own fluids. Atrocious way of ending your life.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: pipe2null on April 04, 2020, 01:36:28 am
Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)

America first, don´t you know ?  ;)

We ARE #1 in the whole freakin world!  For confirmed cases.  And we are leaving y'all in the dust!  :palm:
Make America .. virulent again?

Well done I suppose!  :-+  :-//
Hah!  Yea, that's the kind of dark and sarcastic humor I was going for.  When thing are looking bleak, my humor tends to take a downward spiral.  Perhaps I should "socially distance" myself online too?!?  Eh...  Probably not...
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on April 04, 2020, 01:39:19 am
Quote
look into the analysis of Amazing Polly

Don't have time or the willpower to sit through multiple half-hour videos. If they have something important or useful to say then write it down. If they can't be arsed to do that, because videos are easy, it's not worth my time either.

Having got that out of the way, we need to be careful we don't confuse effect with cause. For instance, our privacy is being massively eroded in the name of tracing infections. On the one had that's a good use of information, but on the other it's a very slippery slope. At the end (if there is an end!) it's likely that most of these privacy invasions will have become the norm and will stick around. Some of these emergency laws won't be repealed, etc. All our governments have lots of form for doing that, but what they are doing is taking advantage of a situation. That is not just believable it's provable (at least, previous form is and why should this be different). But have the governments engineered the situation to allow them to bring in these laws? No, that's not very believable.

Similarly, I have no doubt that some psychopathic (or borderline - you really need to be that way to get on) politician will see the old and sick being decimated and mentally shrug, see the silver lining, so to speak. I really very much doubt that any of them would take whoever aside and whisper "Eh, could be a good time to not try too hard to save the old ones, you know." Your Polly would seem to go with the latter rather than the former, and I think most rational people would consider that an invalid interpretation for the USA.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: DrG on April 04, 2020, 01:40:29 am
[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: SiliconWizard on April 04, 2020, 01:47:32 am
For instance, our privacy is being massively eroded in the name of tracing infections. On the one had that's a good use of information, but on the other it's a very slippery slope. At the end (if there is an end!) it's likely that most of these privacy invasions will have become the norm and will stick around. Some of these emergency laws won't be repealed, etc. All our governments have lots of form for doing that, but what they are doing is taking advantage of a situation.

I mentioned my pessimistic fear of this in several posts, and I agree with you here. Some people (I don't blame them!) are trying to see the positive in all this and how it could change things for the better in the end - I unfortunately have little hope of that.

As I said earlier, just like what happened with our fight against terrorism, it's extremely likely that our privacy AND freedom are going to be severely eroded for quite a while (in the optimistic scenario), and possibly for a very long time otherwise.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 04, 2020, 01:54:06 am
I don't see how a personal experience should make a difference, however sad it is. It would sure bias your own perception of reality, but unfortunately, the severity of a pandemic is just judged by numbers... Hard facts.

Anyway.

I really have heard of mixed opinions from serious people in the medical field so far. I admit I absolutely don't know what to think at the moment. Not that it even makes a difference anyway, as we have no choice but follow the orders of our governments and be reasonably cautious otherwise.

Some specialists seem to think we are overreacting, some clearly state that we are not doing enough. In both camps, many are saying we aren't doing things right at the moment though, so there seems to be a small sad consensus on this, while we are pedalling to get it over with. It's also sad to see that we seem to kindly ignore what those that "succeeded" (relatively) did, and what they are currently suggesting us, while our figures keep growing despite the confinement.

One thing that is factually frightening about this virus is not necessarily the numbers in the end, but how the victims' life ends when they are the unlucky ones. Respiratory infections are always awful when they get bad, but this one can get REALLY bad - people basically end up "drowning" in their own fluids. Atrocious way of ending your life.

True words.

But it makes a difference to want to assess the fate of individuals, which you can't actually do especially if you are affected yourself, or have to analyse the facts of the pandemic.

Whoever interweaves these views with each other is unlikely to be able to cope with the analysis of the overall situation. As hard as this may sound for the individual, especially for those who seem to have a case in their family or circle of acquaintances.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 04, 2020, 02:03:56 am
Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!

You're making a mistake in assuming that any rational argument is going to make a dent in the belief system of the committed conspiracy fan. That everybody in the world is hunkered down in their homes is, to them, evidence that they are right. Because that's what the government wants. To them this is evidence that the government have some nefarious plan that requires trashing the world's economy for god knows how many months. That this would require an effective conspiracy to be driving the actions all the governments in the world is, to them, entirely believable. To them Occam's Razor is something that the Men In Black use on your throat when you get too close to the government's secrets. You are dealing with people who do not and will not approach the subject with rational thinking and dealing with them on the basis that they will see sense is futile.

Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 04, 2020, 02:08:00 am
For instance, our privacy is being massively eroded in the name of tracing infections. On the one had that's a good use of information, but on the other it's a very slippery slope. At the end (if there is an end!) it's likely that most of these privacy invasions will have become the norm and will stick around. Some of these emergency laws won't be repealed, etc. All our governments have lots of form for doing that, but what they are doing is taking advantage of a situation.

I mentioned my pessimistic fear of this in several posts, and I agree with you here. Some people (I don't blame them!) are trying to see the positive in all this and how it could change things for the better in the end - I unfortunately have little hope of that.

As I said earlier, just like what happened with our fight against terrorism, it's extremely likely that our privacy AND freedom are going to be severely eroded for quite a while (in the optimistic scenario), and possibly for a very long time otherwise.

Where the likely possibility is, to push the whole pandemic hype even further.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 04, 2020, 02:13:06 am
Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!

You're making a mistake in assuming that any rational argument is going to make a dent in the belief system of the committed conspiracy fan. That everybody in the world is hunkered down in their homes is, to them, evidence that they are right. Because that's what the government wants. To them this is evidence that the government have some nefarious plan that requires trashing the world's economy for god knows how many months. That this would require an effective conspiracy to be driving the actions all the governments in the world is, to them, entirely believable. To them Occam's Razor is something that the Men In Black use on your throat when you get too close to the government's secrets. You are dealing with people who do not and will not approach the subject with rational thinking and dealing with them on the basis that they will see sense is futile.

So much hate? God have mercy on your poor soul.  :)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Nusa on April 04, 2020, 02:40:34 am
I'm having great difficulty distinguishing the trolls from the pot-stirrers, personally.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: hwj-d on April 04, 2020, 02:41:18 am
Quote
look into the analysis of Amazing Polly

Don't have time or the willpower to sit through multiple half-hour videos. If they have something important or useful to say then write it down. If they can't be arsed to do that, because videos are easy, it's not worth my time either.

...

Somewhat strange view of appreciating the effort of gathering information, don't you think? After all, all you have to do is listen to, and think about it.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: Cerebus on April 04, 2020, 03:10:26 am
Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!

You're making a mistake in assuming that any rational argument is going to make a dent in the belief system of the committed conspiracy fan. That everybody in the world is hunkered down in their homes is, to them, evidence that they are right. Because that's what the government wants. To them this is evidence that the government have some nefarious plan that requires trashing the world's economy for god knows how many months. That this would require an effective conspiracy to be driving the actions all the governments in the world is, to them, entirely believable. To them Occam's Razor is something that the Men In Black use on your throat when you get too close to the government's secrets. You are dealing with people who do not and will not approach the subject with rational thinking and dealing with them on the basis that they will see sense is futile.

So much hate? God have mercy on your poor soul.  :)

Why interpret it as hate? Unless you're paranoid of course. It's just a description of a certain mentality. It wasn't even addressed at you, even if you recognise yourself in it. I don't advocate any of the usual things that usually go with hate to be done to them, I don't even say they are bad people. But you choose to describe someone who clearly does not ascribe to the world view of the conspiracy theorist as hateful. Why in your mind is "this person disagrees with this world view" translated into "this person is hateful"?

Of course I am falling into the exact trap that I warned against, of expecting a rational response to rational words. I've already got a purely emotional one - "you are full of hate". Note I'm not shouting at you, I'm not calling you names, I'm not advocating that anything nasty be done to you. Please consider why you find someone describing the majority view, that there is no rational basis for these conspiracy theories, so threatening to you that you ascribe 'hate' to them when there is no actual evidence of hatefulness.

It should be pretty clear by now that I think you've got problems and are in need of some mental health assistance. I could be wrong, you could just be one of those sad individuals who gets their tiny little rocks off by just stirring it - that's also something that a mental health professional could help with - but my money is on the former. Get yourself some help, it looks very much like you need it, even if you don't realise it yet. If not for yourself for those around you. Look at the chaos you're causing here, in what was a reasonably ordered thread for this forum for something that intrinsically has political dimensions, imagine the magnitude of the effects you have on those close to you.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: NiHaoMike on April 04, 2020, 03:53:24 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2fNmDO5IXM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2fNmDO5IXM)
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: PlainName on April 04, 2020, 04:34:20 am
Quote
look into the analysis of Amazing Polly

Don't have time or the willpower to sit through multiple half-hour videos. If they have something important or useful to say then write it down. If they can't be arsed to do that, because videos are easy, it's not worth my time either.

...

Somewhat strange view of appreciating the effort of gathering information, don't you think? After all, all you have to do is listen to, and think about it.

No, it is 30 minutes. You can't speed that up, it is 30 minutes. So just six people posting this stuff if 3 hours of a day gone. They're not showing anything, just talking heads that don't need video. Written, all of that stuff could be scanned in 5 minutes.

So video is very inefficient, but they do it because it is far FAR easier for them to sit and talk on the fly than it is to put their thoughts into written words. They don't give a toss about the viewer, they just want to be the one everyone else is looking at. The fact that they're making these videos is thus actually a pointer to them being complete rubbish.

Imagine if EEVBlog were composed of video messages such as those. You'd get through about half thread in a day if you had nothing else to do.
Title: Re: Covid 19 virus
Post by: EEVblog on April 04, 2020, 05:18:26 am
This thread is now just dominating this forum, I think it needs to stop. Take a break and get back to electronics.