So does it matter which part of the planet a human is from as to whether the mutation would be a different type.No, we are all one species in this regard.
In simplistic terms someone from China develops covid 19 and as it works its way around the world does it end up as something else but still covid 19 , is this the mutation that they appear to be chasing.Each virus has its own typical mutation rate. It does not matter whether it travels around the world, or slowly infects new people in the same region, they just tend to mutate at the same rate. That is not the issue here.
Oh well folks thanks for the insight , i just hope there's a very clever and highly skilled team out there in a lab somewhere .It's actually more like "hope there is enough people working on this and coordinating with each other, because the 'haystack' they need to comb through is so vast".
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases (numbers of the tracking sites are still quite old and vary around 26 but there were 20 new cases recently), thankfully still without any fatality. The number of confirmed influenza cases for this season is around 100k though with 161 fatalities and nobody really cares.
In the influenza season 2017/18, 25k (!) people died (about 0.03% of the population) in Germany and nobody panicked about that. And still lots of people don't even care about influenza vaccination.
So, yes. it's a serious thing, maybe a bit more serious than influenza if it really spreads worldwide but it's not the apocalypse. Just as with influenza, most people that die of it are either old or suffer from a serious pre-existing illness.
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases
While all of this becomes somewhat terrifying admittedly, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective. E.g. in Germany there are currently < 50 confirmed cases (numbers of the tracking sites are still quite old an died (about 0.03% of the population) in Germany and nobody panicked about that. And still lots of people don't even care about influenza vaccination.Call us when coronavirus Death will knock Your door and let is know if ignorance and denial helped scare her away.
You guys really know how to turn a calm and rational statement into something coldhearted and misanthropic. Please try to read whole sentences or even paragraphs before trying to blame other people of a horrible attitude.
Well, you said "it's nothing to worry about, and anyway mostly old and sick people will die". Neither statements is factual. Since no one has a crystal ball, the rational statement is "we don't know how bad it will get".No, that's not what I said. That's what you decided to read into it. Which says a lot about your perception of yourself and other people but nothing about what you falsely quoted.
Well, you said "it's nothing to worry about, and anyway mostly old and sick people will die". Neither statements is factual. Since no one has a crystal ball, the rational statement is "we don't know how bad it will get".No, that's not what I said. That's what you decided to read into it. Which says a lot about your perception of yourself and other people but nothing about what you falsely quoted.
If you really think that is not what you said, you really need to be a lot more careful about how you write things.Well, I simply didn't say would you apparently like to think I did. After all you felt the need to forge the quote just to be sure. It's quite obvious how you interpreted the worst by reading only a part here and a part there and filling the gaps with your worst expectations. It's probably easy to feel righteous and be angry about others at the same time with this approach. Not my cup of tea though, so please don't put words in my mouth.
But no need to get your panties in a bunch, it's not the apocalypse, right?Sorry, I kinda mistook this for a serious discussion. Guess I was wrong. So I'm outta here and leave this to the prophets of the apocalypse.
Sorry, I kinda mistook this for a serious discussion. Guess I was wrong. So I'm outta here and leave this to the prophets of the apocalypse.
But in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.
“There is a lot of panic at the moment that is really not warranted,” he said. “If you think about the fundamental health impacts, they are significant but it is not like we have a real pandemic. It’s like a strong flu.”
Indeed, as coronavirus cases continue to emerge globally, scientists are urgently studying its characteristics, but it may be too soon to draw conclusions about fatality rates, transmission and who is most vulnerable to infection or complications.
“There are so many huge unknowns about this outbreak,” said Professor Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University told The Guardian this month. “For example, we don’t know just how infectious people are before they show symptoms. That makes it impossible to predict what is going to happen.”
“The trouble is, this outbreak is caused by a very different virus. And unlike flu, there are no vaccines or treatments and, crucially, no pre-existing immunity in the population.”
It's getting worse day by day. :(
When it comes to dealing with a risk of a pandemic, a CEO of some "financial services company" will be the last person i am going to listen to.QuoteBut in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???I am sure the Chinese Government loves the Canadian Government who says "when you see a Chinese person, shake their hand". Can you imagine a more moronic advice from a country's health official ? When i heard that on the radio i did not know if to laugh or to cry.
This is not a fucking GAME!! It has now crossed the lines to being a PANDEMIC.
There is NOTHING 'racist' about protecting one's country-folk.
I think most humans are too stupid to work this out, until a pandemic that actually kills a major fraction of humans on this planet comes along. We just do not seem to be able to look at history, see what actions lead to, and avoid those disastrous actions.Not too stupid to work it out, just unwilling to significantly alter their daily life for a very remote possibility, like with everything else. Only immediate threat causes people to change, it's just human nature. Not just human actually, other animals do the same.
When it comes to dealing with a risk of a pandemic, a CEO of some "financial services company" will be the last person i am going to listen to.QuoteBut in a Feb. 26 interview in London, Oliver Baete, CEO of the Germany-based multinational financial services company Allianz SE, told Bloomberg News that the reaction was overblown.
Yeap, and the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days. And France has jumped from 38 to 57. That's a 50% increase in the last two days! Anyone that understands anything about geometric progression knows where this is leading. Japan who has been treating this very serious for weeks now has had 20 new cases in the last 24 hours. And China is still getting something like 500 new cases everyday, for weeks nows.
It's exactly that kind of thinking that leads people to panic rather than approach this rationally.
Firstly saying "the number of cases in Germany jumped from 49 to 60. That's a 22+% increase in two days." as if that "22+%" means anything. That's the kind of percentage used by red top newspaper subeditors to make something out of nothing. Even the use of the emotive "jumped" instead of 'increased' or some other less loaded word is straight out of the same playbook. Why not go the whole hog and say 'soared'.
All you have to do is look at the Johns Hopkins graph on a log scale to see where this is going without meaningful intervention. Another week and there will be more cases outside China than inside (see attached image)
The incident highlighted how the American government’s response to a public health emergency, like trying to contain a potential coronavirus epidemic, could be handicapped by relying on a system built around private hospitals and for-profit health insurance providers. Last month, a man in Miami who returned from a work trip to China feeling sick went to a hospital to be tested for coronavirus. The test came back negative, but his high-deductible health insurance provider told him he would have to pay at least $1,400, the Miami Herald reported, and provide three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got was not related to a preexisting condition. Without producing the records, he would owe $3,270 for getting tested.
As long as the rest of us don't do something stupid* that encourages people to avoid/evade the necessary controls then we'll all be fine.
All that's needed on top is a system to manage and isolate any cases that have already slipped through the net. In the UK there's been adequate and reasonable public advice issued: if you get symptoms and have cause to believe it's Covid-19 stay home, phone the NHS helpline and you'll get help (at no cost to yourself).
It's all hype in that it's not much different from the regular flu that goes around. I just looked it up today and in the USA the flu has killed 10,000 already this year, yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died.
It's all hype in that it's not much different from the regular flu that goes around. I just looked it up today and in the USA the flu has killed 10,000 already this year, yet everyone is panicking that *6* people in my state have died.
Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc.I read his post in a completely different vein! Weird, eh.
Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet;
Why not? They will die eventually anyway; it is only a matter of when. So will I. Do you not realize this?Yes, a lot of people will die, but there is a stupendous number of humans on this planet;Ready to write this on your loved one's tombstone if they die from the virus ?
Just a minor quibble.That makes as much sense as calling the virus HIV and the illness/disease AIDS. Because of the distinction, lots of people are dead (because they claimed the two are unrelated).
COVID-19 is the illness/disease
SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19
Not very long ago there were *only* 6 deaths from Covid 19 in China. More recently there were *only* 6 deaths in Iran, Italy etc.I read his post in a completely different vein! Weird, eh.
In particular, the overall death toll from covid-19 will almost certainly be no different than a bad flu season; at most at the level of pandemic expected to occur from one of the influenza viruses every three decades or so. All the statistics bear the signs of that (since we can very simply compare them to old ones, except that we now have better information networks and much more data).
In the coming weeks, we will see that the number of deaths in Europe will be much higher, because of the ideological/political opposition to any sort of borders or restriction on movements -- that is my guess and bet. I estimate we are only in the second week of the infected but symptomless carriers spreading the virus, so the true spike in cases will be a week to three weeks away still. If that does happen, we know from the Chinese example that it could have been avoided. Hopefully I'm completely wrong, though.
Hmm, not sure what you mean. How did you view his post?As emphasizing that flu is deadly too, we just ignore it because we're overdue (according to virologists/epidemiologists) for a really bad flu variant, and haven't had a really bad one in a century. The "thrice a century" isn't just last century, you know.
Your attitude is precisely why I believe a pandemic is, imo, virtually guaranteed. I've no idea where you are getting your statistics but the figures I see are much worse than your rosey picture.I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability.
Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods. Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age. It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet.
I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country?
I agree with you there except I don't see why it will be a 'spike' - that implies significant actions being undertaken within few weeks to counter the virus spread.Perhaps "spike" was the wrong word, and "step function" would have described it better, but words are hard. (To me, "data spiking up" refers to a sudden rise, typical for initially exponential data, but does not necessarily mean the data also drops down as fast, only that the rise is fast with at least a small peak.)
Also, the Chinese response to the virus is rather exemplary. I do not know why they reacted so strongly, but it definitely was effective.
Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.
One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.
I'm used to working with noisy data, so I know that if your dataset size is ~ 10,000 and you look at differences in the .1% range, you're basically just waving your arms without any statistical reliability.
Covid 19 has a mortality rate of somewhere between 1.3% and 3.5%, so at least as bad, if not worse than the 1918 influenza pandemic.It is also nowhere as easily transmitted as most influenza variants, as evidenced by the efficacy of the Chinese quarantine methods.
Plus, the mortality rate is actually under 0.8% for those under 50 years of age. It is not at all clear what the actual numbers are, since we don't even have reliable detection methods yet.
I'd love to hear your explanation of why those dramatic images of conditions inside Chinese hospitals are no worse than conditions seen every 3 decades or so.Because in bad flu years, there are old people dying on beds in hospital corridors in just about every European country?
Most of those who are likely to contract the virus, have already contacted it in most European cities at this point, I'm guessing.
Without the dictatorial powers available to the Chinese state, I don't see how the rest of the world can hope to address the problem until public opinion finally kicks in. That will be very late in the day imo.
One thing is for sure, it won't take long to find out who is right and I sincerely hope it's not me.
You don't know your own countries 'dictatorial powers' well enough. Check out the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and the Emergency Powers Act 1964. In case of an 'emergency' the government can grant itself pretty much any power and suspend pretty much any existing law that it wants to. Most 'democracies' have some such set of dictatorial powers lurking on the books.
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.Where did you pull those number from? As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.
"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. [...]Ah, you are the type that goes "that's too daft, as I'm pretty certain". I apologise for mistaking you for someone who considers things in a rational analytical fashion, instead of just going by the feel of your pants.
I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.
Yes, but they just about cope, ususally.Be careful, you're waving your hands so hard you might start flying.
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.Where did you pull those number from? As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.
Ncov-19 has an infection rate of around 2 to 3, twice that of regular flu. That's 100% higher. The death rate is uncertain at this stage but appears to be between 1 and 3% or 1 to 2 thousand percent higher.Where did you pull those number from?
Virus transmission
The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.
Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people.
It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science
Our review found the average R0 to be 3.28 and median to be 2.79, which exceed WHO estimates from 1.4 to 2.5. The studies using stochastic and statistical methods for deriving R0 provide estimates that are reasonably comparable. However, the studies using mathematical methods produce estimates that are, on average, higher. Some of the mathematically derived estimates fall within the range produced the statistical and stochastic estimates. It is important to further assess the reason for the higher R0 values estimated by some the mathematical studies. For example, modelling assumptions may have played a role. In more recent studies, R0 seems to have stabilized at around 2–3. R0 estimations produced at later stages can be expected to be more reliable, as they build upon more case data and include the effect of awareness and intervention. It is worthy to note that the WHO point estimates are consistently below all published estimates, although the higher end of the WHO range includes the lower end of the estimates reviewed here.
As long as there is no reliable test, and the majority of infected only show mild cold/flu-like symptoms they are likely to weather at home without medical intervention, the numbers will be overestimates.
You obviously have no experience with noisy data, because at these scales comparing such small numbers with such high noise has huge error bars, "1 to 2 thousand percent higher" being as accurate as "enormous" or "tiny".
Essentially, the error bars at these scales are larger than the values themselves. You can make statistical predictions based on them, but their reliability is very poor.
This is a perfect example of a dataset where your numbers are from a biased subset. The apparent numbers do not reflect the true characteristics.
"As evidenced"? Sorry, but that is just too daft to laugh at. [...]Ah, you are the type that goes "that's too daft, as I'm pretty certain". I apologise for mistaking you for someone who considers things in a rational analytical fashion, instead of just going by the feel of your pants.
I'm pretty certain that the extreme quarantine measures taken by the Chinese would have had at least as dramatic impact on the transmission of regular flu if not more.
This is the first time the spread of an infectitious disease seems to have been completely stopped by quarantining the affected regions. You might be pretty certain of you like, but history shows us neither European countries nor Northern America has managed that yet.
Thus far, serious disease has only been managed through vaccination programs only. We know quarantine works, and epidemiologists have been talking about self-imposed quarantines as an effective method for these viral outbreaks for decades; average westerners have just ignored their advice completely, and keep sneering at Asians wearing breathing masks (whose intent is not to protect themselves from infection, but from spreading possible infection to others; this seems a concept too hard to understand for many).
Yes, but they just about cope, ususally.Be careful, you're waving your hands so hard you might start flying.
Are you sure you're not trying to explain things according to your own fixed internal model, instead of looking at the various possibilities that could explain the phenomena we are seeing? I am trying to do the latter (because I am painfully aware of my internal tendencies to do the former, and absolutely hate it when it happens: it feels to me like getting lost because of being too lazy to look at the map often enough), and have pretty consistently described these as my current opinion. I could be wrong -- and do feel free to disagree, I and others here value the viewpoints -- but when you start saying things like "that's too daft to even laugh at" followed by "I'm pretty certain that" you sound like having to question your own beliefs or understanding is your worst fear. It shouldn't be; it is best to be your own advocatus diaboli, to inspect the roots of your beliefs and understanding, to find out where you truly stand.
As an examples, of weaknesses in my own understanding, I really do not know how dangerous this situation is, because we really do not know the true number of infected. We know the lower bound, from people admitted to hospitals, but we have no reliable detection method, so the number of infected but with minor symptomps could be huge. In fact, the scariest scenario is that there are actually more than one virus involved here, possibly describing the reinfection cases. (The worst case scenario still is that the mutation rate is so high that human immune systems cannot keep up with it; this also makes any sort of effective vaccine highly unlikely.)
If anyone asks me how dangerous this is, I can only say truthfully "I don't know", or lie. I just don't have anything to correlate this with. So, instead, I just live with it, knowing that this epidemic or something like it will repeat at least once more in my lifetime, and I will then be even more susceptible (due to age) than I am now.
Interesting to note that the deaths correlated most to other medical problems and smoking.
We have several people now in hospitals in my area (Toronto) with coronavirus:
https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/ (https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/health-wellness-care/diseases-medications-vaccines/coronavirus/)
The situation is only getting worse. Our most recent cases are from people who visited Iran, and I believe one went through Egypt. Anyways, I've heard from quite a few people I bumped into just in the last few days that the local Costco (large warehouse-sized superstore for those who don't know) was *VERY* busy with huge line ups and so on... WHY????
At first one might think people are in panic mode and clearing the shelves of essentials, waiting for the oncoming Zombie apocalypse. It turns out the huge line-ups are due to Costco implementing some new protocol where EVERY SHOPPING CART entering the store gets a Lysol wipe-down and everyone is getting their hands sprayed/sanitized or something like that.... So it is creating line-ups.
Second issue is with store shelves being depleted not due to panic buying, but lack of STOCK arriving from overseas. Walmart is likely to experience the same... As the shipping-container industry grinds to a halt, many workers in China not available to load ships or ships being held in ports for longer times. So it is creating a backlog of shipments and goods which for the most part in these stores comes from China.
if it was just anther Ebola it would have ended by now. this is something 10x more deadly! :scared:It's definitely nowhere as deadly as Ebola, in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.
in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, delivered new fatality rates for COVID-19 at a press conference Tuesday
Getty Images
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died, WHO says.
As the COVID-19 spreads, scientists are learning more about the disease’s fatality rate.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, said at a press briefing in Geneva. That’s more than previous estimates that hovered around 2% and the influenza fatality rate of less than 1%.
Tedros said last week the fatality rate in Wuhan, China, considered the epicenter of the outbreak, is between 2% and 4%. Outside of Wuhan, it is thought to be closer to 0.7%, although some estimates put it at closer to 2%. The epidemic is “affecting countries in different ways,” he added.
interesting how some people are more concerned about wiping their ass! than if they have enough food or water :palm:
in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.
It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)
NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.Infected from the family member that bought Corona from Iran. Family now in lockdown.
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.
Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.
Latest study from China:
Mortality lower than 1% for covid19
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1 (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1)
Wally
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous. Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous. Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!
No such thing with COVID19 for a while.
Delivery drivers will deliver whatever you bought to the entrance of your complex, and you can go downstairs to the entrance of your complex and grab it.Why i should be doing this when i simply can have supplies in my closet. Outside food may become expensive, delivery drivers may charge a premium, and the delivered food may be contaminated. This is literally inviting the virus straight into your house.
Even in a non locked down city it is still prudent to purchase using delivery services just to reduce contact.
Why are the Chinese Government attacking Australia, for being over zealous???
:palm:
.... Then use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu of 2%. ...
Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous. Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!
Seeing that you are from Puerto Rico, I'm surprised you have such a lax attitude regarding emergency preparedness.
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)
You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.
Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
- Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
- Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
- R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.
So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
- Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
- Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
- R0 - 1.4-3.8
How to interpret this? True/False?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic (https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic)
Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)
You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.
Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:
- Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
- Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
- R0 - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.
So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:
- Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
- Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
- R0 - 1.4-3.8
I'd take that location with a pinch of salt if I was you.
(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)
Two new users appear on 24th February and 3rd of March, both immediately move to high post counts for newbies, both from the same apparent country and a fixation on little tweety things? Now, I may be wrong, but I think I can smell someone's sock drawer being opened.
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19
While the worlds media feeds on the covid-19 story it's a good time for governments to make unpopular announcements as they won't get as much coverage. The media is mare worried about filling it's air time and less worried about what it fills it with.
I am just wondering about all of the inconvenient stuff that is being put out at a time when all we are looking at is the numbers of covid-19
Who is in charge around here?!
Who is in charge around here?!
I heard Pence ...?
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ? :-//
Who is in charge around here?!
I heard Pence ...?
What politics are you talking about? Are we better informed here in Canada than you guys down there that vice president Pence was assigned to lead the coronavirus response ? :-//
As I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.
Seriously though, it is fun to watch the greedy and amoral suffer as the share market crashes :-+.
This is pretty close. Here is a good primer of what R0 is.
Remember that R0 is not a rate. It does not have time dimension in it.
LeoAs I understand it the R0 measure is for uncontrolled growth in the population (no vaccination, immunity, isolation). The idea is NOT to have the R0 materialize.
Well N10 have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.
Yes I had wondered if they would be organized for that.
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.
Sounds like the best thing. With hospitals cleaned by contractors employing staff on minimum wage I have no wish to have her hanging around in a hospital that is full of people being treated for Covid-19, with the best will in the world once they go full overload cross contamination will occur.
PANDEMIC!
Yes WHO finally shifted their stance from epidemic to pandemic. There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground. Bottom line is, they don't want people to give up fighting since there was still "hope" when it was being treated as an epidemic. At this point, you might think resistance if futile, but even as a pandemic (which everyone already knew was where it was going), it is still good to fight it like an epidemic to slow down it's progression. This will be difficult in many liberal democracies but it may eventually come down to Italian-like lockdowns (I doubt we will ever allow Chinese-like lockdowns) which is going to be devastating either way.
There were various reasons they held back but it is clearly a matter of mindset, political, social and economic strategies that motivated their decision along with the facts on the ground.
I'm being pernickety precisely because the word 'pandemic' makes people use 18pt type, exclamation marks and start running around in circles panicking. By definition, all of you (unless we have some 11 year old members) lived through the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and you're still here.
Well N10 have used war like language but the actual action has not been that forthcoming. It would appear that they are still hedging their bets that it won't happen but that will make it happen. My sister is due to have a baby in May, I am not happy, last thing she needs is a Covid-19 ridden hospital to give birth in because we lost control of it.
I expect to see acceleration in China in the next few days while people start migrating again.
China continues to report unrealistically low numbers of new daily cases. Just 4 today.
All of the roadside births I've heard about at the hands of cabbies or police officers have all had happy endings.
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Selection bias.
by May it the virus should be much weaker.
by May it the virus should be much weaker.
Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/)
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.Higher humidity. With lower humidity as in the winter the nasaldrops loose their moist content faster and the particles travel larger distances. That is why you should keep a further distance with lower humidity than high humidity where the heavier particles will drop sooner and travel a shorter distance.
Therefore we have flu epidemicsin the northern hemisphereusually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).
PS: Italy closes all stores except pharmacies and food outlets
At the end of last month I took a look at the US case count to try to get an idea of how quickly this disease would be spreading. I just wanted to be able to make some plans regarding travel. So, I watched the numbers from the worldometer website. I found that the US case count doubled on a very regular pace. From March 1 I started recording the number each day and plotting it. It's amazing how predictible it has been. Since March 1 in the US it has been very tightly tracking an exponential growth pattern. The number of cases is doubling every 2.4 days. On this growth path, the number of US cases will reach over 420,000 by the end of March. However, in the US , bureaucratic and financial hurdles are resulting in very little testing being done. So the actual number of cases is likely much higher than the available numbers. If more extensive testing is done it will likely drive the numbers to go above the projection. If significant actions are taken to slow the spread, the data will track below the curve. So far, neither of these are seen in the data.The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination. The latter is out of the question (vaccine is at least 12-18 month behind). So the actual spread will continue until most people get infected.
So, when will we see an inflection in the curve -- at the latest? Epidemiologists are saying to expect 60% to 80% infection rate before herd immunity takes effect. On the current growth path for the US, that will occur between April 21 and April 23. But, considering that the case count is likely higher than we know and that fear will probably grip the population and policy leaders before that prompting them to take some actions to slow the spread, I suspect we'll see an inflection point in the US in mid April. Unfortunately the inflection point will not be the peak. I think it's safe to say this epidemic will be with us for more than the next couple of months.
The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.
As for tracking test results... In open countries, like the US, there is the limit on how many positive tests the country can report each day (determined by the number of available test kits, lab throughput, qualification criteria determined by bureaucrats, etc.).
Because of what we know about the virus (asymptomatic spread, and that the virus can survive for many days outside the host) - I don’t believe that R0 can be dropped below 1.0 by hygiene and social isolation measures alone.The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.
There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.
Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.
I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.
As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.
If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.
1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience.
What slave labor? I'm not aware of any other than mandatory labor in jails, which they get paid significantly less than open labor market.
I try to buy Australian made wherever possible.
It looks like Tom Hanks and his spouse have COVID-19 acquired when shooting a film in Australia (Dave I hope you are staying safe):
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html)
(https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/tom-1.jpg?w=500&h=280&crop=1)
Once Kevin Bacon gets it... all of Hollywood is screwed!!! :-DD
https://oracleofbacon.org/ (https://oracleofbacon.org/)
I try to buy Australian made wherever possible.
Boomerang ? :-DD
Genuine Aborigin's made is much more expensive, there must be cheaper China made alternative too tight ?
The subway is crowd enough to crush people into pancakes. That I learned the hard way on line 4.
If you want no BS reporting I seriously suggest everybody check out Dr. John Campbell on youtube
update from the 11th ->
Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery. Many are domestic workers working in the homes of the wealthy, many are sex workers tricked into it, many others are forced to work in small and medium sized business -- many coming from China but Central America as well. So, comments about slavery in China seem a bit misplaced when the western world is not without its issues.
Also, let's not forget about ~40,000 traffic fatalities each year (USA) that we are completely OK with...
Another day, another data point as the virus steadily marches up the exponential curve here in the US. As of yesterday fear has suddenly prompted policy makers into action. There are new international travel restrictions. Universities are closing. Grade schools are winding down activities and telling parents to prepare for closures. Finally we have policy makers responding. Unfortunately, it may be too late. There are still lots of misleading instructions and advice being put out by community, press, and government leaders. Still many are saying the risk is low. Clearly few understand what 'exponential' means. If they did, they would see that on the current growth track the spread could result in about a million deaths in the US by about 30 days from now.
Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.
Your chart is interesting. I think we are using the same data.
Those who criticize the chart are missing the point. This data is publicly available and anyone can use it to make their own projection in whatever format they prefer. It doesn't change the fact that spread is exponential and many people may suffer and/or die.
Sadly governments are doing very badly.
The Donald Trump White House told the federal Department of Health and Human Services to classify all information from top-level coronavirus meetings.
The decision to keep all coronavirus deliberations classified made it hard for public health and medical professionals to access vital information. The restricted flow hampered the U.S. government’s response to the contagion, Reuters reports, citing four Trump administration officials.
“The officials said that dozens of classified discussions about such topics as the scope of infections, quarantines and travel restrictions have been held since mid-January in a high-security meeting room at the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS),” report Wednesday Aram Roston and Marisa Taylor at Reuters:
Staffers without security clearances, including government experts, were excluded from the interagency meetings, which included video conference calls, the sources said.
“We had some very critical people who did not have security clearances who could not go,” one official said. “These should not be classified meetings. It was unnecessary.”
The sources said the National Security Council (NSC), which advises the president on security issues, ordered the classification.”This came directly from the White House,” one official said.
The White House insistence on secrecy at the nation’s premier public health organization, which has not been previously disclosed, has put a lid on certain information - and potentially delayed the response to the crisis.
In the UK it has been announced that we are moving from the "containment" stage to the "delay" stage. Well fuck me if someone can tell me what he "containment" plan was other than to do nothing I'd be very grateful!
My place of work they shifted to two teams work, one team may work at the office on even weeks the other on odd weeks. Temperature check at the entrance, cafeteria closed, not allowed to use the keyboard and mouse on the shared office space, no meetings >5 people, and work as much as possible from home.
Never had this in 25 yrs on the job.
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf (https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
The conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.It's interesting that I've seen very few projections on the internet and none in the press. I think humans, in general, have a hard time appreciating the implication of exponential spread. The more we can give people a glimpse of what's to come, the more willing they may be to change behaviors. And there's really only two things they need to do, or even can do to slow the spread: 1) wash their hands frequently, 2) go home and stay there.
by May it the virus should be much weaker.
Snopes rates that as "unproven". https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-warm-weather/)
"The virus should be much weaker" and 'the virus is less likely to be transmitted in warmer weather' - the latter being what Snopes considers - are not the same thing.
There's a real possibility that the virus in circulation may be less virulent by May by a combination of two reasons: (1) Coronaviruses are highly mutable, there's a very high probability of new variants emerging during a pandemic, (2) viruses/bacteria/parasites that kill their hosts are less likely to spread than less lethal variants. This was actually seen, and confirmed, during one of the earlier flu pandemics (I don't offhand remember which one) where later in the pandemic the original flu variant died off and a mutated, less virulent, variant continued to spread - the death rate fell while infection rates continued at the same level. Although this is a real possibility, it's not a effect that any plan to control the disease ought to rely on.
The virus is more prone to a damage with higher temperature, lower humidity and more ultraviolet exposure.
Therefore we have flu epidemicsin the northern hemisphereusually in winter (and also the human immune system is at lowest level in winter/spring).
Recent figures from China are laughable, and they cannot be rationally explained.
The major problem we see is the vast majority of people are absolutely irresponsible by default (the people anywhere in the World). They simply do not care, unless forced by pretty draconian measures (or by totalitarian dictatorships). And they will not change their behavior, I am afraid.QuoteThe conclusion seems clear: Unless we manage to fundamentally change people's behaviors, and hence slow down the spread, we are in for a collapse of the health systems.It's interesting that I've seen very few projections on the internet and none in the press. I think humans, in general, have a hard time appreciating the implication of exponential spread. The more we can give people a glimpse of what's to come, the more willing they may be to change behaviors. And there's really only two things they need to do, or even can do to slow the spread: 1) wash their hands frequently, 2) go home and stay there.
I was only criticizing metrologist's way of plotting the data. Didn't mean to question your point, and I don't think I said anything to that effect.
Total cases is a bit pointless. 80% of the total cases have recovered. 5% or so are dead, leaving only 15% actually infected and infectous.
The figure you want to look at is "Active Cases". These are the number of people actually with the virus. It's important as if that number is rising, it's getting worse, if it's falling, it's getting better.
Yes the bigger problem is the idiots panic buying. I have several weeks of food already. I will buy no more.
By the way, is it "coronavirus" or "corona virus"?
I think it would be interesting to try to project when we would run out of hospital beds based on this growth pattern. A number of factors would come into play, such as number of beds, % in use, turnover of beds, location of beds vs. hotspots, etc. Just eyeballing the numbers without careful calculations and by making broad assumptions, it looks to me like the US health system could be overwhelmed early next month.
If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22.
Anecdotally, the virus appears to be rampant in France despite the statistics. I just found out a relative in France has got the corona virus. Also, my daughter lives in France (she does not have the virus) and said some client walked into her work and told the judge she has the virus and will spread it on purpose because she has contempt for the French court system. The woman was arrested and tested as positive. Seems like the virus can be used as a weapon.
By the way, is it "coronavirus" or "corona virus"? If seems both terms are used, with the former being more popular. It seems the bad spelling is spreading faster than the virus itself. Why would Anglophones join the two distinct words together when there is no reason to do so? Itseemsratheroddtome.
I am sick to death of hearing about it. :rant:Hopefully not literally Muttley. Keep safe mate.
I am sick to death of hearing about it. :rant:
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,
The Greek Orthodox church say that taking the communion wine from the same common spoon won't spread the virus... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117). Is this God's protection of the faithful, or the 13% ethanol content of the wine preventing spread of the virus?
This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?
The Greek Orthodox church say that taking the communion wine from the same common spoon won't spread the virus... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51819117). Is this God's protection of the faithful, or the 13% ethanol content of the wine preventing spread of the virus?
This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?
This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?
[...] by May it the virus should be much weaker.
This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?
Err, no. It does not work like that. If the virus enters a mucus part of your body it's in your body, not your gut. Your gut is also one of the harshest chemical environments known to man.
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,
So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.
This raises another question: Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup as well as washing hands with hand sanitiser after eating take-away food or restaurant food prepared by someone with corona virus? It is known ethanol kills this virus in its tracks. Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?
Err, no. It does not work like that. If the virus enters a mucus part of your body it's in your body, not your gut. Your gut is also one of the harshest chemical environments known to man.
Hydrochloric acid... If you ever tried working with that stuff, you get impressed with how the body manages to keep it contained without burning holes in your body!
A few days ago I brought a couple of large toilet roll packs and could have easily been labelled a hoarder, how dare I buy two right?
(https://i.imgur.com/pLwKZOn.jpg)
With covid19 there is heavy underreporting, imho.
All statistics I've seen are based on "positive tested" vs. mortality.
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
You have to know the number of "infected" vs. fatalities.
Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?
I wonder what effect vaping has on it.
The "infected cases" are all those with mild or none symptoms, or with symptoms similar to flu treated at home with aspirin. Also people who hide the symptoms. All those "infected" will recover within a week or two without be registered by the authorities. The only sign of covid19 infection are the antibodies in their blood.The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.If there is still a great risk of hidden infected cases, Chinese government wouldn't have lifted lock down within Hubei province.
Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?I wonder what effect vaping has on it.
Now that we have hypothesized about potential health benefits from vaping and drinking alcohol, may I propose a review of the anti-viral effects of sex, drugs, and rock'n'roll? ;)
Chinese government has banned the sale of cold and fever relief drugs temporarily for the exact reason.Their parents may get light or none symptoms, unless they are over 60..
As for kids, their parents will not miss the symptoms even if they did.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca)
(Attachment Link)
I'm not panic buying.
I'm expeditiously purchasing.
By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,
So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.
Sorry, but the meme that "the virus will reduce by itself in time" is just bullshit, people are just using it to justify not doing anything. The only reduction effects will be herd immunity, when sufficient people have been infected.
[...] by May it the virus should be much weaker.
Recent studies suggest otherwise. In fact experts over here expect the climax in infections by June/July, in high summer. Hence all effort right now concentrates on slowing down the spread to a rate that can be handled by our medical system.
The consensus seems to be that the case fatality will be quite low if we manage to not overflow the intensive care capabilities. If you look at China, the high fatality numbers are dominated by Hubei province, where especially in Wuhan the intensive care capacities were overwhelmed. In the rest of China, the case fatality rate was much lower.
In Germany right now we have over 3000 reported cases and 7 deaths (0.2%) but that's overly optimistic right now, IMHO. Let's see how the numbers develop in the coming two weeks, we know that fatality trails reported by about two weeks.
1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.This theory might not be applicable to this virus. There is evidence that COVID-19 can spread asymptomatic (before the host starts showing symptoms or dies).
Friend just sent some photos from Spain, all shelves empty.
Here while we have pretty strong measures in place (no gatherings >50 people, schools, cinemas etc closed etc) at the shop it's a day like any other.
1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.This theory might not be applicable to this virus. There is evidence that COVID-19 can spread asymptomatic (before the host starts showing symptoms or dies).
As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.
We went shopping here yesterday and except for hand wipes and TP we didn't have any problems getting what we wanted. The store was busy but no worse than when all of the local university students come back from any of their breaks. We had to stand in line for perhaps 30 seconds to get to the check out counter but that was it.
Since the theme parks and the schools closed there are a lot of people out and about, mostly out jogging, walking their dogs, or working on projects around their houses. I just came back from going out and buying another Oxy/Acetylene torch with tanks. I'm going back to buy a MIG welder and two tanks tomorrow. Life is good, at the moment!
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.The keyword here is “usually”.
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.The keyword here is “usually”.
If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.
That's because in those countries, even decades ago when I spent a few years there, air conditioned is widely spread and it offers the ideal conditions for the virus survival and spread (cold and dry air).I lived in Singapore for decade. Air conditioning means 24-26C ambient temperature and 60-80% humidity in that country. It is not that you can get dry air. Still, most Singaporeans do not use air conditioning at their HDB flats, and large number of local businesses don’t use air conditioning either. In less prosperous neighboring countries that I listed, the A/C prevalence is much lower than in the rich city-state.
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.The keyword here is “usually”.
If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.
evolution doesn't work that way, even a bit better is enough
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.The keyword here is “usually”.
If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.
evolution doesn't work that way, even a bit better is enough
I've no idea why you are doing so much hand waving over this, you agree with the premise that doing nothing is stupid. We have to act now, not take chances.
There is still ZERO proof for your assertion. Please just give up with the guesswork. Admit you have no proof. We will only find out with hindsight.
That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).
Given the same conditions, e.g. on Andaman Islands people, who have never been exposed either to flue or COVID-19 viruses, flue might be more lethal (or might not), but for the vast majority of people in the world it is the other way.Good example. And that is exactly what we want to know - the FR for flu vs. covid19 under your assumption above.
here? Where? You didn't set your country code :)
The experts know already the XX% of the population will certainly acquire the virus this year. The Chinese and other statistics show ~80% of cases are with none or mild symptoms. With sufficient treatment of the difficult cases, under "normally" working hospital care, they can master it without more fatalities than with flu. That is what UK and Germany (and others) are targeting, imho.
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).
In one cemetery of the Italian city of Bergamo they buried 90 bodies in the last two weeks. Normally the number of burials is 120. Per year. The obituary pages in the local newspaper went from 1 page to 10 pages.
Just like the flu. Keep saying that.
here? Where? You didn't set your country code :)
Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery. I got pneumonia before when swimming in too cold water so I'm familiar with the feeling (which was much worse than it is now though).
That is what kills people.I hope not; I'd like to stick around for a bit longer. Needless to say I'm staying at home.
here? Where? You didn't set your country code :)
Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life? :)
here? Where? You didn't set your country code :)
Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life? :)
I won't say that :) :)
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)Have you ever been to Italy?
Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery.In mid March in Europe you may feel similar symptoms with a) cold (because people underestimate the still low temperatures while sunny days already), b) flu - because the flu season, c) hay fever - allergy season starts - people with pollen allergies and asthma, d) others. Thus only a test will tell you more..
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)Have you ever been to Italy?
Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
China is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. They have a LOT more human and construction resources to move around and focus than a country with 60 million people (Italy). If Australia had the same infection rate as Italy, they would likely be making hard choices on who to save as well.
I don't think it is population and resources.I agree.
[...]
The politicians here really, really don't want their population replacement program through humanitarian immigration to be jeopardized in any way.
[...]
Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?It is not a conspiracy theory, it is just a consequence of their actions.
here? Where? You didn't set your country code :)
Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
So presumably you have very regular, but very disappointing sex life? :)
I won't say that :) :)
But Christmas only comes once a year! (Must be a heck of an orgy though if it's the whole town!) :)
.. our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls. ..Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.
In general I tend to keep away from threads like this because I suffer from hysteria induced narcolepsy, but a real quick FYI:This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery.In mid March in Europe you may feel similar symptoms with a) cold (because people underestimate the still low temperatures while sunny days already), b) flu - because the flu season, c) hay fever - allergy season starts - people with pollen allergies and asthma, d) others. Thus only a test will tell you more..
Coarsly chop up onion, put in handkerchief, crush onion, inhale the sulfur goodness. No magic bullet (duh), but useful tool. The main component in this case being the anti-inflammatory one. Also anti-viral, but lets work under the assumption that the preventative ship has already sailed. You want to reduce or inhibit the inflamatory response induced by the viral infection making friends with your immune system.
Ninja-ing your local friend asthma patient's inhaler and huffing that also works /some/ but in general is frowned upon. Plus those are typically corticosteroids, so not the best match IMO as treatment in the early stages. AFAIK they are useful at the later stages though. Aaaanyways, trying not to get into it. Short version: inhale an onion and with a bit of luck enjoy the reduced discomfort. Cheap, easy, scalable, no substitute for proper medical care, but better than nothing in a situation where the relevant medical resources are somewhat strained. Good luck!
Does a tin foil hat provide any form of protection against this?It is not a conspiracy theory, it is just a consequence of their actions.
They believe, like the worker movement in 1918 in Finland believed, that Finland is doomed unless it merges with a larger union. They aren't evil, or conspiring; just ignorant and wrong. They genuinely believe that unless they replace Finns with humanitarian immigrants, something bad will happen to everyone; that it must be done for the world to be safe. Sometimes that bad thing is genetics ("we need better genes", even though most humanitarian immigrants suffer from consanguinity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consanguinity) more than Finns), sometimes it is the aging population ("we need someone to wipe our bums when we are old", even though employment rate among the immigrants is significantly lower than average, and raw numbers indicate each humanitarian immigrants is financially a negative net loss on average for the society), sometimes it is "white man's burden" (the tar in most slave ships was produced in Finland), sometimes international obligations, sometimes something else.
Did you know that Finns are basically what remains of the hunter-gather population all over Europe, up till agriculture came along? (See e.g. this (https://www.aaas.org/news/science-stone-age-skeletons-suggest-europes-first-farmers-came-southern-europe), a report by Swedish archaeologists, using bog corpses dating back 5000 years.) No, neither do Finns. We are still taught in school that we displaced Sami people, coming from a bend somewhere in the river Volga. And that we should be ashamed for our history. Being a proud Finn is worse than announcing oneself as a reborn Adolf Hitler. Try waving a Finnish flag on a sunny non-national holiday, and you will be spat on.
Fifteen years ago, at Helsinki University, I took the mandatory Swedish class. The lecturer asked the students how they identify themselves: as Helsinki'ers, as Finns, or as Europeans. 95% of the students -- everyone except me -- said they identify themselves primarily as Helsinki'er, then as an European, and laughed the idea of identifying as a Finn. That is how deeply self-loathing is ingrained in current youth. (Me, I'm a barrel-raised woodland creature, and as basic [in the derogatory sense] a finn as you can get.)
Everything I am saying here is easily verifiable. I am not implying that there is someone wringing their hands together, cackling evilly, with a plan on how to replace the population in Finland with immigrants. I am just saying that the current actions inevitably lead to that.
The most important of those actions, in the current pandemic, and pertinent to this thread, is their absolute refusal to even consider reinstating border controls.
The reason for that is that while the majority of Finns have clamored for border controls ever since 2015, and returning humanitarian immigrants to the safe EU countries they came from, our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls.
If they now reinstated border controls, even for curbing the spread of the pandemic, they would immediately prove they have lied to Finnish citizens for years.
So, instead of doing the sane thing and protect everyone living in Finland by instating health inspection based border controls,
our beloved leaders are still claiming it would be illegal for them to do so.
The only reason to do so, is 1) to avoid being exposed as a liar, and 2) to avoid risking their long-term desire, of Finland being a haven for humanitarian immigration.
This is not a conspiracy theory, or any theory at all, because the first reason is a consequence of the second, and there are no other reasons stated by our politicians in the media (or even in private).
I have no idea, and the media is unwilling to ask such questions... our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls. ..Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.
My take on it is - there is nothing wrong with being proud of your country and flying your flag. But that must never become a reason to sh!t on other people or countries, and you must never lose sight of the fact that you are not perfect. (I have been to Finland, and liked it!)I absolutely agree.
Finland may close their borders anytime, as they wish. There cannot be such a law which forbids that. An EU country still may decide on its borders even it is a part of Schengen Area (26 countries incl. Finland).Yes, I agree. However, the reason why Finland hasn't instated even spot health checks, or tracked people who came from the infection hotspot, is as I explained above. It skirts dangerously close to political discussion, but my point is, Finland is hurting in this pandemic because of really odd politics.
Finland may close their borders anytime, as they wish. There cannot be such a law which forbids that. An EU country still may decide on its borders even it is a part of Schengen Area (26 countries incl. Finland).
.. our government has categorically stated it is impossible: they are bound by law to not do that, that they do not have the legal right to reinstate border controls. ..Is it a Finnish law or an EU law? EU countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Poland have closed their borders without any problems.
Off topic story and joke time.I have visited Finland (Helsinki) several times for work. One of the Finnish people told me that Finland is the land of lost wars. Still there is quite a bit to be proud of for the people of Finland. Just start with Nokia.
The reason there is no "Finnish Supremacy" movement is that the entire idea is utterly absurd to even the most ardent fennophile.
The "non-indigenousness" of Finns has been used as a political tool for over a hundred years, and even in the face of archaeological DNA evidence, there seems no end to it. It is at the core of the beliefs that lead to the emotional need for Finland to be part of or replaced by something bigger. I mean, respected researchers have rejected the DNA evidence, and instead state that linguistic theories are more reliable, because those theories can be used in guilting people to follow some political ideology/agenda or other.
here? Where? You didn't set your country code :)
Presently just outside of Orlando, Florida, USA in a town called "Christmas".
So the novel coronavirus is NOT like a flu. For one, it seems to be gradual over a few days and then develop into ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).This is pretty much in line with what I'm experiencing currently. Flu like symptoms for the past couple of days. Now I start to develop a cough and my lungs start to feel watery. I got pneumonia before when swimming in too cold water so I'm familiar with the feeling (which was much worse than it is now though).QuoteThat is what kills people.I hope not; I'd like to stick around for a bit longer. Needless to say I'm staying at home.
This age discrimination reminds me of Soylent Green. https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html (https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italy-may-abandon-over-80s-to-their-fate-as-crisis-grows-20200315-p54a75.html)
Maybe age discrimination is legal in Italy. It certainly is not in Australia except by the insurance industry. If the Chinese can build a hospital in six days, why can't the Italians?
Still, making the choice of who lives and who dies based on age, is age discrimination by definition
but it is like war
but it is like war
The first casualty is the truth? Plausible, but we were already dealing with the mainstream press. If you want the hyperbole look there, extrapolate back to reality.
As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.
A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well. To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees Celsius and low specific and absolute humidity). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. We have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.
........
The same thing applies to the current COVID crisis. Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action. If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it. If the results are middling anything could happen. And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions. ......
.....The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories. In my country the problem is not just at the top. .....
..... Too much attention is being paid to gaining political points and not enough to identifying the situation and then selecting and implementing responses.....
If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much. I believe the phrase we're looking for here is "fatal inflammatory response". It's a common theme in entirely too many pathologies... So maybe I don't understand you correctly? :-// To keep it within the current context, read for example this one:
The NL goes into lockdown for the next 3 weeks. This causes long lines with people who want to get some weed while they still can:ROFL! Classic! ;D
(https://storage.pubble.nl/16c0059b/content/2020/3/b2363833-5a48-4150-bc54-e1263d9ff332_thumb840.jpg)
The one thing that does puzzle me a tiny wee bit is:If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much. I believe the phrase we're looking for here is "fatal inflammatory response". It's a common theme in entirely too many pathologies... So maybe I don't understand you correctly? :-// To keep it within the current context, read for example this one:
https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf (https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf)
Anyways, thanks for the sanity check. :-+
Well, it's official. Spring Break is DONE...
too little too late.
This video get more interesting later on...
too little too late.
This video get more interesting later on...
Yes, it's a bit too late. ;)
That video has been posted earlier in this thread: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432)
just see this:Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.Quote...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
pure bullshit
there is no age discrimination but it is like war
when resources are limited a doctor might chose to devote them to people more likely to recover and that doesn't depend on age (a 101 old chines man fully recovered and suffered only quite mild symptoms) but on general health conditions
e.g. a 30 years old may be affected by a last stage cancer and other pathologies, while an 80 years old one may just have the virus
Well, it's official. Spring Break is DONE...
They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).
Well, it's official. Spring Break is DONE...
They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).
Did they actually close the beach or just close all of the parties and other student activities?
A friend of mine took his family to Cocoa Beach today. It's usually almost empty but he said that it was fairly crowded today.
Floridians are rediscovering those natural sources of entertainment that existed here before the big commercial Theme Parks' propaganda convinced everyone that you had to spent $500 per day to have a good time.
“We cannot become a petri dish for a very dangerous virus,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said Sunday during a joint news conference at Miami Beach City Hall. “Spring break is over. The party is over.”
Fort Lauderdale beach — the sandy section — will be closed from Harbor Drive north to Oakland Park Boulevard. Miami Beach will close the beach from Fifth Street to 15th Street —the uber trendy section known as South Beach. Even its public parking garages will close and an 11 p.m. curfew will be strictly enforced.
Fort Lauderdale’s rules are in effect now through April 12.
Violators can risk a $500 fine or 60 days in jail.
“We clearly want to encourage voluntary compliance, but we could arrest or issue notices to appear if necessary," Fort Lauderdale City Manager Chris Lagerbloom said.
Yes, it's a bit too late. ;)
Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action. If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it. If the results are middling anything could happen. And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions.That was tested and failed a few weeks ago, before first cases occured in Europe/America. We could have had all the same border lockdown but without internal chaos.
The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories.
This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much.
just see this:Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.Quote...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.
Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.
Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?
so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.
Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?
so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans
That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.
Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?
so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans
That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?
It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo
Let's go further:
Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks
Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%
Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%
Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0
(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo
Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...
The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.
As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes. That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly. (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)
If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me. From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascorbic_acid) "showed promise".
I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo. At best, it might actually help a little.
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...
I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there.The EMCrit project (https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/) does note that "Emerging evidence suggests that some patients may respond to COVID-19 with an exuberant “cytokine storm” reaction (with features of bacterial sepsis or hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis)" and that "Clinical markers of this may include elevations of C-reactive protein and ferritin, which appear to track with disease severity and mortality (Ruan 3/3/20)", which to me means cytokine storms are associated, but not systematically in all patients.
As I understand it, these features they mention refer to fever or lowered body temperature, fatigue and confusion, enlarged and/or sensitive lymph nodes, and signs of general inflammation, including rashes. That means, in my understanding (which is quite limited!), that the situation is not yet on the autoimmune attack stage requiring intensive care, but more like the immune system is not concentrating on the virus properly. (I can imagine several ways this could happen, the most likely being that white cells cannot tag/identify the virus or virus-infected cells properly.)
If so, reducing the cytokine storm in its initial phase, before intensive care is actually needed due to the severity of the symptoms, sounds like a good idea to me. From the rumours from Chinese doctors, I understood that in patients where the cytokine storm itself is in its early stages, with intensive care not yet warranted, high doses of ascorbic acid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ascorbic_acid) "showed promise".
I could be wrong here, but since taking high doses of vit C in the short term is not dangerous (as it is water soluble), at worst it is a placebo. At best, it might actually help a little.
I don't think that this link has been posted before - sorry if it has.
2020.03.12 A Coordinated Boston Response to COVID19
https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)
But the survivalist is still only delaying the inevitable, if he ever intends to interact with another human being ever again...
The time to be a survivalist is when a much more deadly disease spreads, at which point it might be mankind's only hope for avoiding extinction...
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.
Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?
so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?
Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.
Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.
The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.
All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.
I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?
Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species.
Viruses are incredibly specific to their host species. If a host cell doesn't express some cell surface antigen that the virus needs to get into the cell, it won't. If a host cell doesn't have the right variant of some enzyme involved in manufacturing or assembling new virions then the virus won't reproduce.
The response to viruses is also highly variable within species. For most people Epstein-Barr virus causes the disease Mononucleosis/Glandular Fever, but in some people (particularly in Sino-Asian populations) it causes a type of leukaemia.
All it takes for a virus to cause/not cause disease, or be infectious/no infectious can be as little as a single gene variation in the host species.
I don't know why you would say that when we have so much well-documented viral zoonoses. Maybe I am just not understanding.
"Firstly there's a assumption here that the animal had exactly the same strain that is infecting humans as opposed to a closely related but 'dog targetting' variant of the species."
OK, take herpes B for example. There are clearly documented cases of infection to humans after exposure (scratch or bite) to macaques. Indeed, the macaque is barely symptomatic other than shedding...the human, unfortunately can develop encephalitis in a couple of days. The infected human can also infect other humans.
Same virus. same infection albeit dramatically different effects. What am I missing?
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)
Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.
University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.
Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.
Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?
so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans
I think the most likely explanation is that dogs don't shed enough virus to cause infection. That could be pretty hard to measure in the midst of a crisis.
Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative? How about the antibody tests? I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.
At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests. The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus. Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration). This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength. They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)
Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)
Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.
Read about the James Cai case here https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html (https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-previously-healthy-clinician-now-critically-ill-with-covid-19.html)and also look at the follow up. James was treated with the same two drugs and he credits them and the Chinese researchers who recommended them with saving his life. For the ones of you that continue to think that this virus is no worse than the annual flu virus, James was a young healthy man with no medical conditions but Corona virus almost killed him.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5 (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-queensland-researchers-find-cure-want-drug-trial/news-story/93e7656da0cff4fc4d2c5e51706accb5)
Probably not a cheap solution but at least here in the US most insurers are saying they'll cover all associated treatment for the virus.
From that article:QuoteUniversity of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.
In vitro and in vivo are two very different things. It could easily fall at the first hurdle. Just because the drugs work in a test tube is no guarantee that they will have any effect in a real living host. The good news is that they are both active, approved drugs with known safety profiles - it would seem there is no significant barrier to going ahead with a clinical trial with extreme speed. Who knows, they may get lucky.
Oh, and the named one of the two drugs, chloroquine, is as cheap as chips (unless you're in the US where all drugs cost many more times more than they do in the rest of the world).
In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed.This is not your normal queue for toilet paper, where whoever first reaches the aisle is rewarded with truckload of TP, while the others are rewarded with empty shelves.
In this case, if you are <50, the best strategy is to get the disease early as possible. You have a low risk of dying, and you get access to medical resources before they are overwhelmed.
Actuall, this is a good strategy to overwhelm medical resources and further reduce the probability of a favourable outcome for the elders.
Still, the best strategy if your philosophy is "screw everybody else, I am the only one who counts".
..The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. ..The virus is a chunk of RNA encapsulated into "the debris" of the cell's outer membrane (the cell which burst because of the mass-produced RNA). Thus the "how to get into the cell" is not coded in the RNA itself, but specified rather by its encapsulation - and while it is made of the cell's outer membrane the barrier to enter into an another identical or "similar" cell is almost nil, imho.
It seems you have a lot of aspiration for science. Keep on trying, don’t give up, and take my advice. Today I am giving it away for free. When googling for something that can prove your theory, don’t search for words like “urine”. Try something different. ”Chi-squared test”, for example.just see this:Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.Quote...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.
well if you do not like how science works you can always try cow urine (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2965132/#msg2965132) ;D
..The SARS-Covid-2 virus has a genome with about 30,000 base pairs, that means (crudely) it can only code 10,000 amino acid sequences, quite a few of which are overhead. Compare that to a computer virus with 30,000 bytes assembler instructions and 10,000 actual instructions. That little genetic material has to code for the structure of the virus, how it gets into a host cell, how it gets that host cell to manufacture more virions and so on. ..The virus is a chunk of RNA encapsulated into "the debris" of the cell's outer membrane (the cell which burst because of the mass-produced RNA). Thus the "how to get into the cell" is not coded in the RNA itself, but specified rather by its encapsulation - and while it is made of the cell's outer membrane the barrier to enter into an another identical or "similar" cell is almost nil, imho.
Structural biology
Each SARS-CoV-2 virion is approximately 50–200 nanometres in diameter.[50] Like other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 has four structural proteins, known as the S (spike), E (envelope), M (membrane), and N (nucleocapsid) proteins; the N protein holds the RNA genome, and the S, E, and M proteins together create the viral envelope.[51] The spike protein is responsible for allowing the virus to attach to the membrane of a host cell.[51]
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.Just for clarity: it wasn't the same PM as in 1973. Still it is impressive. Never thought I'd see the day but yet here it is.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative? How about the antibody tests? I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.
At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests. The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus. Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration). This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength. They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.
Does anyone know if the PCR tests being commonly done by public health services are quantitative? How about the antibody tests? I've read articles that mentioned both viral load and detected/not detected results.
At least in the USA, the PCR tests are pass/fail tests. The test basically slices and dices the sample RNA, making copies each time, matching on 3 different sample patterns found in the virus. Each one is tagged with a dye which is then measured (after each copy iteration). This will generate a curve of the fluorescence at a specific wavelength. They plot this on a graph and if all 3 different dye tags cross a specific threshold within a specific # of replications, its a positive test.
So how do they do an "N-gene-specific quantitative RT-PCR assay", as described in this article:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4/fulltext)
Is it a lot more difficult than the pass/fail test you describe?
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.What happened in 1973?
That was the oil crisis.For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.What happened in 1973?
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.What happened in 1973?
For the first time since 1973 our PM addressed the country.Just for clarity: it wasn't the same PM as in 1973. Still it is impressive. Never thought I'd see the day but yet here it is.
The strategy is to isolate as much as possible the elderlyand vulnerable till its over. The rest of the population should over time get the virus in a natural way, so they get immune after they recovered so they don't pose a thread anymore after a certain period of time.
His main message was that most people will get infected at some point (which is what Merkel; the PM of Germany also stated a couple of weeks ago). The efforts are aimed to control the outbreak so health care can keep up. Makes sense to me because that seems the only way to me to keep both the economy going and reduce loss of life.
Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours!What did you expect if Canadian idiot health officials were saying ,as the toll was rising in China, if you see a Chinese person come say you support them and shake their hand.
However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it.
But you've missed an important point: at this point it little matters what happens to the economy. The entire planet is faced with the possibility of MASSIVE numbers of deaths due to overloaded medical systems. Right now, they're making hard decisions about the best way to keep as many people alive as possible. Yes, short of some sort of vaccine being invented EVERYONE is going to get it. And even in the best medical conditions, an average of 3.4% of the infected people are dying. That's 10 million people in the US alone and about 230 million world wide. However that's going to go up drastically if we can't limit the rate of increase so that the medical systems can deal with it. Go look at Italy right now, they CAN'T deal with the current rate of increase, Iran is just as bad, South Korea was but now seems to be getting some control on it. Spain is losing control, so is France and Ger
That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?
Even countries like Canada are showing a 25% increase in the number of cases just in the last 24 hours!What did you expect if Canadian idiot health officials were saying ,as the toll was rising in China, if you see a Chinese person come say you support them and shake their hand.
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.
Coronavirus: German Big Brother cast to be told about pandemic live on TV
..In Markus Lanz talk show (11.3.) your expert said Germany CFR is low because of very early testing start and good testing coverage..
IMHO, this means two things:
- Germany is still at the very beginning of the wave and not many critical cases had the time to come to closure.
- We have a good test coverage...
Leave the masks for those people that need them most. They are in seriously finite supply.
If you want to slow the spread of the virus you have to act as if you already have it.
Wearing masks (even DIY) is absolutely essential !!!
Who is saying it is not is an idiot !!!
https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others. It's not rocket science.
Like a surgeon operating on someone, the mask stops them breathing ON to the patient/surgical-opening, not the other way around.
PS: you are required to wear a mask when entering a bus, train, tram here, btw.
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard??? It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world?? Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources??? I don't understand!!
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard??? It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world?? Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources??? I don't understand!!
As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.
It is not going to help. The virus is already lingering in too many people. Even if the virus is blocked right now it will pop-up later on. The Corona virus is going to become seasonal flu. The only way out is to slow down the spread to a pace where the health services can keep up and develop a vaccine for old and weak people.QuoteIf you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others. It's not rocket science.
It seems you don't understand.
Corona has a very long incubation time and even after this incubation time many people with corona don't feel ill. So there are many people who don't knot that they are transmitting the virus because they CAN'T know.
The ill corona pations are not transmitting because they stay at home or are in hospital. It is EXACTLY the people who feel fine but are infected who are transmitting the virus.
The sould wear masks of course and to archive that, EVERYONE has to wear a mask. ever if it is selfbuilt. Because if everyone wears the mask, then automatically everyone who is feeling goot but is actually infected would also wear the mask.
Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.
Okay, -gb-, let me just take the advice of someone on the internet and ignore all the official information.
It is not going to help. The virus is already lingering in too many people. Even if the virus is blocked right now it will pop-up later on.
QuoteOkay, -gb-, let me just take the advice of someone on the internet and ignore all the official information.
No, you shouldn't. you should start thinking. The official advice is to not wear the mask becaus it will not protect you. that is absolutely right. but the official advice is not considering, that there are other reasons to wear the mask. exactly that others will be protectet if you are infected and wear the mask.
The IMPORTANT point he made, is that we are/need to control it on a "Flatter Curve", than otherwise, so that it remains manageable within the hospital/medical system, regarding beds/resources etc. for the duration.
PS: The virus is getting close to my family in Italy right now, it's not funny. Once he knocks on your door, it's different than reading the news.My estimation is that by this time next year we all know someone personally who has died from the Corona virus.
The most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.
No. They just wear masks for the placebo effect / false sense of security. Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all. The only thing which helps is to physically seperate people by keeping distance and keeping your hands clean. You are way too panicky. Just follow the advice from the experts.QuoteThe most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.
Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth. I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.
Yes, there is a mask shortage, build them for you own.
Even if wearing the mask only makes a minor difference, i think in this situation we should at least try ist. look at china/southkorea, threre they wear masks and may be have succeded.
QuoteThe most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.
Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth.
I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.
Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.
Eyes?
What's pointless is everybody, symptomless and symptomatic alike wearing masks.
:bullshit:No. They just wear masks for the placebo effect / false sense of security. Cerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all. The only thing which helps is to physically seperate people by keeping distance and keeping your hands clean. You are way too panicky. Just follow the advice from the experts.QuoteThe most likely route of infection for most people is hand to mucosa contact (hand to face) after touching a contaminated surface.
Right. But if you would wear a selfmade mask, then you could not touch your mouth. I still think wearing a mask would be good. Here in germany/europe it's winter and cold, it is flu-season. so there are many people coughing and sneezing who think it it just flue and who do not wear masks.
Yes, there is a mask shortage, build them for you own.
Even if wearing the mask only makes a minor difference, i think in this situation we should at least try ist. look at china/southkorea, threre they wear masks and may be have succeded.
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?
No viable virus could be measured after 4 hours on copper for HCoV-19 [SARS-Covid-2] and 8 hours for SARS-CoV-1, or after 24 hours on cardboard for HCoV-19 and 8 hours for SARS-CoV-1.
HCoV-19 was most stable on plastic and stainless steel and viable virus could be detected up to 72 hours post application (Figure 1A), though the virus titer was greatly reduced (plastic from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 72 hours, stainless steel from 103.7 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 48 hours). SARS-CoV-1 had similar stability kinetics (polypropylene from 103.4 to 100.7 TCID50/mL after 72 hours, stainless steel from 103.6 to 100.6 TCID50/mL after 48 hours).
HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 1.1-1.2 hours, and 95% credible intervals of [0.64, 2.64] hours for HCoV-19 and [0.78 , 2.43] hours for SARS-CoV-1.
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better. False information and conspiracy theories are the last thing we need right now. If there is one time in your life to STFU and do as being told it is now.QuoteCerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.
They do work, but they do NOT protect you if you are not infected. They protect everyone else if you are infected and wear the mask.
with corona many people do not know they are infected because they
a) are in incubation time
b) have a very mild corona
c) think it's the flu. here in europe where it's winter.
It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.
SARS and COVID-19 are also transmitted via feces...
I've non idea why, but AFAIK nobody observed pet-to-human transmission
This virus is fairly fragile. It's easily destroyed by sunlight, alcohol solutions, active chlorine compounds, heat, and everyday disinfectants. It remains viable only minutes or hours on surfaces.
When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts".
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard??? It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world?? Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources??? I don't understand!!
FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better.
Reporting something from Europe, Belgium.
Well people, it's a mess.
It is an illusion to think you won't get infected by the SARS-Cov-2 virus. You will get it, by a chance of maybe 70%, eventually, because it's everywhere. You may escape infection for now by complete isolation, wearing masks, hand cleaning or mainly being lucky, but you likely won't escape it over time because it will be around for a long time. Experts all agree on it. There is no immunity and it's many times more deadly and contagious than flu. What worse cocktail of bad factors would you need?
The import thing is staying at home as instructed, disinfecting/washing your hands, keeping distance, no kissing or handshakes. The only purpose of it, is to make sure there is no overload on the hospital system and lack of medical supplies, and the infection rate slows down. If the infection rate is very high, it's good for rapid immunity across the population but very bad for society as doctors will have to face cruel choices over who can be helped and live, and who can't because there is no room or equipment. In Italy, it got out of control this way.
I would like to get this message out, especially to the Americas as the wave is coming there now. Only strict observation of the measures put in place will save lives. Over here, people only realized the seriousness of it in recent days. Before, it was more of "it won't happen to me", "I've got important business to do", "it's a joke" and "let's get infected we don't care". It's only when emergency doctors started making dramatic statements in the media of how bad this really was and that it did not only apply to elderly people, even going as far as showing lung CT scans of critically ill young persons, that people started to take notice and shut down the jokes and soften "their priorities". Also, politicians didn't do a very good job, navigating between incompetence, scientific ignorance, pleasing the electorate and taking unpopular measures. They wasted precious time.
Yesterday in the news, an emergency doctor here said something really interesting. He said they're always seeing the same pattern of people coming in: they had some moderate flu for a week at home, then it went away for two days making them think all is good, and then they show up at the emergency department, just walking in not too ill-looking, complaining about dry cough and shortness of breath. When they then take a CT-scan, they see their lungs are very critically affected by the virus due to infectuous liquid build-up and conglomeration, eventually building up scar tissue in the lungs. He said: these people are critically ill, but they just don't know it yet. They are in a life-threatening situation. He also said the age range of people currently in intensive care was 30 to 50, and that many of the patients were healthy and fit individuals with no medical background!
In Belgium, we're two steps away from a total lock-down, and luckily everyone seems to get it, for now. Schools closed, teleworking, no physical contact, etc.
Wishing you all the best and strength.
SARS-Covid-2 exhibits shortest half-lives on copper and cardboard. So by the time your PCB and its packaging get to you from China it's going to be safe. >:DDid anyone test soldermask and ESD foam? That's the important question ;)
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard??? It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world?? Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources??? I don't understand!!
Italy, the US and most other countries waited MUCH too long before they started quarantining people and before they shutdown the cruises and other densely populated events.
From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?
There is an official reason given: hands are a very important means of transportation of a virus. Even when you keep a distance. Touch your face anywhere and you have the virus on your hands ready to deposit it anywhere (remember your eyes and ears have a direct connection to your nose and mouth!). A mask could even be counter effective because now the virus is smeared all over an infected person's face and enjoying the ride waiting for getting transferred to the person's hands.QuoteFFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better.
Usually you are right. But here with Corona we, the western countrys do things very different from china and southkorea.
Regarding the masks, i would do what officials say, but there is exactly no official reason
Here in europe and the US is wintertime, there are many people who cough and sneeze who don't wear the mask because it is flu-season. so they think it is flu but it might also be corona. they simply don't know. those people would wear a mask if wearing a mask was mandatory.
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu! Like the guy on here 13 days ago that told me that in Germany they only had 50 cases and that it wasn't anything for them to worry about.
Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.
The US is in the same situation. The CDC bungled the early (NO) testing so we don't have any real numbers to go by EXCEPT the number of dead. They've finally approved some states and a couple of private labs to do testing but I see that in my own state there are still 158 people AWAITING testing as of their last report. That's significantly more than the total number of officially infected people at the time. However the CDC and the Florida State Health Department are no longer reporting any official numbers so that's a BAD sign.
The administration said last week that they would have the capability of doing over 1,000,000 test per week by this week but I'm not seeing it. They are reporting higher number of officially infected cases but from everything that I can find out, the doctors and hospitals are still having to BATTLE the CDC to get an official tests performed and the back log for testing is in the hundreds in most, if not all, states.
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu! Like the guy on here 13 days ago that told me that in Germany they only had 50 cases and that it wasn't anything for them to worry about.
Well, that's an easy one to convince people.
Citing virologist Marc Van Ranst: What is the difference with the flu?
- it's more contagious
- it's more deadly
- there is no vaccine
- there is no antiviral medicine
- nobody has antigens, nobody is immune to it
Obviously, for 85% percent of the population this will be like a good flu, but if you're into that unlucky other 15% part, then you may get very ill, need intensive care like artificial coma and assisted respiration or possibly die. For a country like the US, that small unlucky 15% is about 50 million people. Now count how many free hospital beds there are, let alone specialized life saving equipment. Let that sink in.
Pensioners still cannot get basics at their supermarket. I just got back from our local supermarket. No toilet paper, no meat, no eggs, no pasta, no tissues, not nothing except junk food. The local chemist has run out of basic meds too. The supermarkets are out of control as is our government. Scott Morrison, our Prime Minister, triggered the panic by telling people to stock up.
The state government should impose limits and use the police to fine the hoarders. Better still, use batons on them. Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.
From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?
As a matter of fact, yes I do. https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d) According to it, the virus remains active in fecal matter for over a week after the person is clinically "cured". Given that viruses like warm moist environments I suppose that it shouldn't be a surprise that it can be found in fecal matter, even after the patient is "cured".
This could help explain some of the "reinfected" individuals and spreading from"cured" individuals that were noted in China.
In Italy the infection rate is slowly getting lower and lower although the situation is not the same everywhere (there is even a province with zero cases).Unfortunately the infection numbers mean absolutely nothing because they solely rely on testing. In most parts of Europe the situation is so out of control that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Also a large number of people have such mild symptoms that they aren't tested at all. All in all the only real number you can use as a gauge to say anything meaningfull about the spreading of the Corona virus is the number of deaths.
It takes time to see the effect of quarantine. I'm sure anyway that we'll have to wait at least another month before getting where China is now.
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu!You have completely misunderstood what I and others have said.
Wearing masks (even DIY) is absolutely essential !!!
Who is saying it is not is an idiot !!!
https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/
PS: an absolutely primitive DIY mask has an effectiveness (to stop droplets) of about 25%.
That is a pretty good number when talking statistics of random processes..
[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for. [...]
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others. It's not rocket science.
Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?
The Goddamn experts can go to hell. It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.FFS Just listen to the experts and don't think you know better. False information and conspiracy theories are the last thing we need right now. If there is one time in your life to STFU and do as being told it is now.QuoteCerebus already described in detail why generic / self made masks don't work at all.
They do work, but they do NOT protect you if you are not infected. They protect everyone else if you are infected and wear the mask.
with corona many people do not know they are infected because they
a) are in incubation time
b) have a very mild corona
c) think it's the flu. here in europe where it's winter.
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others. It's not rocket science.
Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?
unfortunately yes... it looks like there are just plenty of idiots out there
I could shoot plenty of photos about them, but then I'd be and idiot as well as I would not abide by the quarantine for a valid reason :)
If you have the virus or symptoms mask or not stay the fuck home and away from others. It's not rocket science.
Do we need governments to declare marshal law and arrest people for being morons?
unfortunately yes... it looks like there are just plenty of idiots out there
I could shoot plenty of photos about them, but then I'd be and idiot as well as I would not abide by the quarantine for a valid reason :)
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard??? It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world?? Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources??? I don't understand!!
As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.
MY MAIN reason for commenting here though, is that I'm sure I've missed a lot of points in the last 17 pages, but WHY was/is Italy hit so hard??? It seems disproportionate regarding the vast number of deaths there, compared to the rest of the world?? Were they totally UN-prepared, didn't take it serious, didn't have the resources??? I don't understand!!
As far as I understand, Italy was taken by surprise. There were no tests in the beginning at all and they noticed the spread only from testing people who died of pneumonia, because they saw the number spiking.
They also, apparently, have the oldest population in Europe. The triaging of patients was no managed well, the hospitals over flowed and people who needed care could not get it.
Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for. [...]
There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks, without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness. A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
BTW no mask protects you if you are so stupid to raise it to smoke a cigarette or to kiss somebody you do not see since long (you can't imagine how many idiots you can immediately spot when you get out)
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting :-DD
Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
I can't believe that seemingly intelligent people in this forum and elsewhere continue to believe that this isn't extremely serious and still want to compare it the annual flu!You have completely misunderstood what I and others have said.
The point is that flu is dangerous: very deadly pandemics occur about three times a century.
Even if such a plan existed it doesn't help because the EU as a whole is so densily populated that a problem quickly spreads across all countries.Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for. [...]
There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks, without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness. A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
There is nothing surprising, nothing exceptional, in this coronavirus pandemic. It, or something like it, was fully expected; just not when or which virus.
The Chinese response to the outbreak is absolutely commendable.
BBC suggested air pollution in northern Italy caused lung problems in general and that contributed to high mortality from the virus. Is that right?
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting :-DD
Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential.
If you are infected you should wear a mask, if possible, to protect others close to you
SARS and COVID-19 are also transmitted via feces...
I've non idea why, but AFAIK nobody observed pet-to-human transmission
From what I've read covid-19 is *not* transmitted by feces.
Do you have a credible study that states differently?
If you are infected you should wear a mask, if possible, to protect others close to you
NO
if you are infected you must quarantine yourself, stay at home or go to the hospital if you can't breath
the main problems are:
1) lots of people do not realize they are infected since are symptom-less
2) a few sociopath know they got the disease (some even tested positive) and just behave carelessly
AFAIK they caught one who knew he was positive but went shopping to the supermarket and another asshole who knew he was sick, but didn't want to miss his planned nose plastic surgery and so didn't tell the medical staff and infected some of them
Lastly, if you are infected, or have good reason to believe that you might be infected - stay at home, do not go out in public unless strictly necessary. The question of "mask or no mask" doesn't come into it if you've put a door and some distance between you and the rest of the world.
while COVID-19 has been detected in feces and tears besides that diarrhea is one of the known symptom (together with loss of taste and smell senses)
Italy was hit hard because they didn't quarantine the first two cases that they found back in early February. Around the 2nd they had two Chinese tourists that were sick and were hospitalized but they allowed them to continue of their tour of the country and to go on a cruise. Weeks later when Italians started getting sick, the authorities started finally started some very limited quarantines but by then hundreds of people all over Italy were infected as well as numerous people in the surrounding countries and some had traveled back the US and to Canada. About one week later, the number of cases in Italy exploded. Then about a week after that, the number of cases in many of the surrounding countries also exploded.
Just released yesterday - report 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
This is the UK "study" that you have, or will be reading about with mortality rates that will be making headlines.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
Wow! The onset of infectiousness is 12 hours to 4.6 days! That should set off alarm bells!
Even if such a plan existed it doesn't help because the EU as a whole is so densily populated that a problem quickly spreads across all countries.Has an emergency response plan even ever existed in EU? Does not seem to be so.[...] influenza and coronaviruses are among the things we should be prepared for. [...]
There really should be portable equipment/resources at the EU level that can be flown in to hot spot areas to help quell outbreaks, without each member country having to shoulder the cost of maintaining a high level of preparedness. A perfect job for a shared institution like the EU.
Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.
I hate people who quote me out of context. What was the last thing I wrote in the same very same post you're quoting just part of?Lastly, if you are infected, or have good reason to believe that you might be infected - stay at home, do not go out in public unless strictly necessary. The question of "mask or no mask" doesn't come into it if you've put a door and some distance between you and the rest of the world.
while COVID-19 has been detected in feces and tears besides that diarrhea is one of the known symptom (together with loss of taste and smell senses)
[Citation Required]
Wouldnt surprise me. In fact, I'd be concerned about what they call "surge capacity."
the real problem is that there is European but no real Union.
Recently an Italian importer managed to order a huge amount of breathing devices from China. Then when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.
Surely we can't go on like that.
QuoteThen when they arrived in Hamburg the German government seized them for their own usage.
Evidence please...
i think it was good idea to buy 500pcs "already pre-used" masks from China, they worked for them, so they already rad-hard and will work for me.
See thatverticalhorizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?! That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.
CCU beds are always in a perilous state as soon as anything goes wrong. My local hospital has 3-4 CCU beds and only expects to have 2-3 in use at any one time, that's only 33% spare capacity in a hospital with 340 regular beds.
BTW: our health professionals are now recycling masks since they have an extreme shortage.
I have heard some have to work without adequate protection, doing the best they can. This is insane, insane times. Take care everyone gor yourself and loved ones.
You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.
CCU beds are always in a perilous state as soon as anything goes wrong. My local hospital has 3-4 CCU beds and only expects to have 2-3 in use at any one time, that's only 33% spare capacity in a hospital with 340 regular beds.
Well, you could think of this epidemic as a natural disaster occurring everywhere at the same time in a country. That's the main problem with it. This virus has a giant medical care depletion capacity. It's both fast spreading and stealthy for a long time.
It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genome.[30][31][32] The 38-year-old man was asymptomatic for weeks, reportedly led an active social life and potentially interacted with dozens of people before spreading the virus at Codogno Hospital
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting :-DD
Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential.
See thatverticalhorizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?! That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.
No, you didn't read it wrong. I think the US has few time left to act in a drastic manner, if the aim is to prevent what is happening to other countries who have acted as-needed. Aside from the medical cases and complications, the problem with this virus is:Unless a country is willing to take very drastic isolation measures before they appear to be needed, as perceived by the general population, the filling up of its medical infrastructure will be caught in speed by the virus, and you're heading straight for the wall. It's not policy or politics, it's math.
- high infection rate and highly contagious
- long incubation period of up to 14 days
If you would able to really take a snapshot of the exact real number of people infected right now, then it's maybe x100 times the current reported number. It's just that these people currently present no symptoms at all and happily infect others. But they will in two weeks. And in two weeks, the actual number of infected individuals will again be a multiple higher than what is being measured then. This goes on until about 60-70% of everyone has been infected, and then it goes down.
And yes, I'm certainly no expert in the matter, but from what I read it seems the US is heading for the opposite, i.e. underestimating it and taking too few measures.
So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.
Well, even if the numbers are off by a factor of 4 then "we're fuxored" still applies. Over here they are already moving patients to different hospitals in order to distribute the load across the country and they are building triage tents in front of some hospitals. We ain't seen nothing yet!You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.Yes, I meantverticalhorizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.
What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).
So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.
Too complex to do anything other than guess at really. Many of the figures used as assumptions in the Imperial study are provisional (moreso than in science in general, which is always to some extent provisional). I see no reason to treat the Imperial study as anything less than "the best predictions we can make at the moment". We've no better working hypothesis, and I fully expect Imperial to revise their model (or someone else to build a similar but revised model) as more data becomes available and assumptions can be refined in the light of new data.
My concerns would be elsewhere. If the Imperial study is accurate (and for argument's sake lets take it as such) I fear it is short-sighted. I say this because if we achieved the effective level of control interventions to make things start to follow the Imperial graphs (on either the green or brown traces), as the general population sees a levelling off of infection rates they will become less compliant with the control measures. So we won't be waiting around for the putative September cut off of control measures to generate those peaks in Nov-Dec, they will happen sooner as folks take a more laissez-faire attitude to the controls.
Look at the difficulties we have here, among a group mostly made up of educated scientists and engineers, at getting some people to take this seriously enough. Imagine then, the difficulty getting "Bert the builder" or "Karen the data entry clerk" to continue taking preventative measures for five months that have financial and social costs to them when in three months time "I haven't seen people dropping like flies. I reckon it's all exaggerated, I'm going back to work/down the bar/whatever".
To maintain Imperial's controls for the next five months as they envisage, is going to require a level of coercion that the west is unaccustomed to and is likely to be increasing resistant to if the apparent disease spread is temporarily halted. The public will accept restrictions if they see "the enemy at the gate", they won't be so happy to do so if the "enemy" appears to them not to be materialising even though that is part of the plan and they've been told that. It will require a massive education drive to convince the public that this is just "holding back the flood" and continued isolation and other measure are still required; and this happens at a time when public confidence in government in the West is probably at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime.
Well, even if the numbers are off by a factor of 4 then "we're fuxored" still applies. Over here they are already moving patients to different hospitals in order to distribute the load across the country and they are building triage tents in front of some hospitals. We ain't seen nothing yet!You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.Yes, I meantverticalhorizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.
What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).
Also the NPIs can only last for so long otherwise the economy will collapse and probably cause more deaths due to lack of electricity, water, sanitation, etc. Imagine getting a Cholera epidemic on top.
If there is some view on having a working vaccine I'm sure it will be fast-tracked and likely administered as part of a trial. AFAIK this is often the case in cancer treatments so people get the latest & greatest medicines.
The example of cancer treatment is, hopefully, not a good example here. In cases of the last stages of a terminal conditions, approval of unapproved medication is more likely because of compassionate use. I can't think of any compassionate use medicine that is not "self-medicating" that is approved in thousands of cases - but maybe I will not be able to say that next year.
Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.
Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.
Maybe sign language helps:Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.Yes yes I got one !
That is a problem but I think many will see it as a test of political leadership for everyone involved. It would be political suicide to hold the US government hostage over who is to be the president during a crisis this severe. In the grand scheme of things it isn't important who is president.
Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.
FWIW, I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances. I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.
ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.Actually the banking systems aren't secure at all. World wide banks get robbed from billions of euros/dollars every year due to digital fraud. To the banks this is just cost of doing business.
We do have a process for mail-in voting. I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.
Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.
FWIW, I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances. I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration. ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.
We do have a process for mail-in voting. I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.
This helps explain the actions taken by government leaders in the last few days. Brace for impact!
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.
FWIW, I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances. I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration. ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.
We do have a process for mail-in voting. I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...Oh shit !
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
Actually the banking systems aren't secure at all. World wide banks get robbed from billions of euros/dollars every year due to digital fraud. To the banks this is just cost of doing business.
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it.
Can you get her back to Australia? Even being held on an island for two weeks, having medical care is better than staying in France and waiting for it to progress.
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".
I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.
THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.
Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?
You are reading it wrong. The chart shows what would happen if both NPI scenarios last till the end of August (the blue band shows period of the restrictions assumed by the model). For example, for green line it tells that severe NPI measures including school closures could be efficacious. But once the restrictions are lifted at the start of September, health care system will become overwhelmed in less than 2 month, unless there would be some changes not taken into account by the model (like new therapies reducing the number of severe cases, virus mutations, availability of vaccine).
(Attachment Link)
See thatverticalhorizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?! That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong.
The Goddamn experts can go to hell. It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
See thatverticalhorizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?! That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.
I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results. But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.
Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?Social pressure only works in groups of less than 2,000 or so people. In cities like Helsinki, where a lot of people have moved to the city as young adults, anonymity is used as a shield against social pressure. It is like backlash, after growing up in smaller circles where everybody knew you; suddenly you find yourself having the ability to sidestep all social pressure, and do what you want: it's not like they know you.
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.
Do they care? In Europe they have an influenza monitoring website to collect data. But that doesn't help much right now; it is nice for a hindsight report. Compare Germany and the Netherlands for example. Germany has over 10k confirmed cases and 26 deaths. In the Netherlands there are 2k confirmed cases and 58 deaths. One would say that the Netherlands has at least 10 times more cases than is being tested for.I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.
But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.
For the people still think the coranavirus only kill to elder people or than they have previous pathologies.Nobody ever claimed that younger people are not affected. The numbers however show that younger people have a significantly lower chance of dying from the Corona virus. Pointing out single cases is not helping anyone.
Today, a Military Policeman with 37 years old and without previous pathologies have dead.
Follow our instincts. Do what WE think make sense and look ahead how events may unfold. It is not a rocket science. It was clear 2 weeks ago borders must be shut off here in North America, let alone in Europe.Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.
But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.
Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?
Follow our instincts. Do what WE think make sense and look ahead how events may unfold. It is not a rocket science. It was clear 2 weeks ago borders must be shut off here in North America, let alone in Europe.Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.
But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.
Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?
This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!
There's plans over here to systematically test blood bank samples for coronavirus immune globulines in order to assess the true spread of the virus.
Also, development is underway for a new type of tests that will deliver results in minutes instead of days. Works similar to a pregnancy test. These tests will not be as sensitive as the currently dominant RT-PCR test kits but it is known that the virus load in the throat is very high already when people start to complain about symptoms. These tests will be sensitive to the proteins of the virus' hull, not to the RNA. You need a higher concentration of virus material but as mentioned, that will not be a problem. Once produced in masses, they will immensely improve test coverage.
Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".
By that theory, we would have eradicated measles and polio for long.
Herd immunity will never work unless you forcefully contact everyone with the virus.
Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".
By that theory, we would have eradicated measles and polio for long.
Herd immunity will never work unless you forcefully contact everyone with the virus.
In reality, the orange line and green line models would need to be accompanied with another action region (another blue region) to mitigate the secondary peaks. This would cause tertiary peaks, but they would be even smaller.
..Where this 1% comes from??
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.
..Where this 1% comes from??
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
And yes, this kind of spreading would probably work to achieve rapid and broad global population immunity.
Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.
...
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
..Where this 1% comes from??
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
You're again cherry-picking my quotes.
Don't get me wrong. I have nothing against you, I was just posting against the extreme solution that you referred, not the one you proposed.
..Where this 1% comes from??
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
Current mortality rates on known infected individuals are in the 3-3.5% range (last time I've checked at least, but it has been pretty much the same since the outbreak in China). However, more individuals get infected than just the known cases, who present few or no symptoms, or simply because countries can't test everyone. So this lowers the real mortality rate vs. a population. Experts think this would take it down to about 1% or so, taking the infected individuals into account who stayed under the radar. But this is still a vast number of individuals, as correctly pointed out by the reply poster, assuming you would do nothing to contain the outbreak.
There is very substantial heterogeneity in published estimates of case fatality risk for H1N1pdm09, ranging from <1 to >10,000 per 100,000 infections
I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting :-DD
Social pressure only works in groups of less than 2,000 or so people. In cities like Helsinki, where a lot of people have moved to the city as young adults, anonymity is used as a shield against social pressure. It is like backlash, after growing up in smaller circles where everybody knew you; suddenly you find yourself having the ability to sidestep all social pressure, and do what you want: it's not like they know you."There has to be a way to implicate immigrants in this mess."
I do see a lot of young people just completely disregarding any quarantine efforts. However, I've also seen indications I haven't seen here before, youngsters occasionally offering help to older people they don't know. That could have been just a random occurrence, though.
What I do know, is that Finns will quietly (grumbling to themselves and their friends) do what they are told, as long as everyone has to do the same.
You let any subset of people off the hook, and very soon nobody will do it. That sort of fairness is at the core of being a Finn. "Is there really a need for social distancing, when our borders are kept open for humanitarian immigration?" "If humanitarian immigrants get to travel as they wish, why should I stay home?" It is this last one, that will bite Finland in the ass, I believe.
Now that we know that the virus becomes infectitious within a day or two, while the symptoms take around five days to become apparent, social distancing -- or whatever that makes people who believe they are not infected to behave as if they were, and stop spreading the virus around -- and quarantines are even more important than originally believed. When the symptoms are detectable, the person has been spreading the virus already for days. That is what we must try to limit here.
Nobody really needs 10 guns .............If it's a pursuit you don't partake in you can be excused for thinking such however for those that do and partake in the many sporting disciplines 10 might not be enough.
That number is pretty important one, I would say. The issue I see is the CFR values I've seen and heard in last 2 weeks varies from 15 to 0.1.
Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.
66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.
The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
Herd immunity is gained by infecting or vaccinating P amount of population where P is at least 1-1/R. For COVID19, R0 is estimated to be 3, so P must be above 2/3.It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
1% of 66.7% of 66M population is 440k assuming no vaccine comes out soon. WW2 killed 450K British people including civilians. Whatever book Boris was reading, it must be as deadly as Mein Kampf.
66.7% is a big number, but it is still feasible, if killing 440k people is an option.
For measles, its R0 is higher, and thus its P must also be higher. Its estimated R0 is 12~18. Let's take 12, then P must be above 92% to eradicate it. The current vaccination rate is 86%.
The previous calculation was based on R=R0, but in reality R can be reduced if protection measures such as locking down and mandatory mask wearing are implemented.
With reduction of R, there is reduction of P, thus saving of lives.
I see no reason why surrender is a good idea, even if herd immunity is used as a last line of defense weapon.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
It was the second wave of the Spanish flu that killed nearly every person it infected.
Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.
The Goddamn experts can go to hell. It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
Experts are ok. I mean, real medical experts. WHO has given good advice; Chinese health experts have given good advice. They have also given good advice to the governments all over the world. But the governments didn't listen, because they are freaking stupid and the fear.
Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.
For many, it's very confusing. For example, here I believe people have taken the official advice quite seriously, but because the official response has been two weeks too late from the start, it doesn't help. You need to listen to the actual experts directly, bypassing the officials (who add the 2-week delay). But only a small percentage of us does this.
Although EU is closing its borders to curb the spread of the pandemic, Finland and Sweden have emphasized that humanitarian migrants can still cross our borders unhindered, because that's what is most important right now, right?
This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!
Anybody who's been a regular reader of New Scientist or similar level-headed board science journals/magazine could have told you that this is a "not of, but when" situation. There have been calls for better emergency preparedness for a pandemic going back to the 1980s when I started reading New Scientist.
Herd immunity is where some, but not all, individuals in a population are immune to a disease in a way that effectively protects the whole population from that disease. The idea is that enough individuals have active immunity* to a specific disease that should a single individual (who is still susceptible to the disease) catch the disease it won't spread.
Agreed. I expect that -like the Mexican / swine flu- we'll see the Corona virus return every season. Which IMHO is why a vaccine is so important.Herd immunity is where some, but not all, individuals in a population are immune to a disease in a way that effectively protects the whole population from that disease. The idea is that enough individuals have active immunity* to a specific disease that should a single individual (who is still susceptible to the disease) catch the disease it won't spread.
While coronavirus is likely to work that way, there are other viruses who are worse and worse once you catch them again (like dengue).
Besides that you can expect the virus to mutate as other human coronaviruses do and affect people each year with usually mild flue-like symptoms. I mean those coronaviruses that have been with us for centuries have not been wiped out by herd immunity.
We're in the wild guessing range so it seems. There is shortage of everything, including test kits. So figures are off. The WHO wants countries to test more so they get their numbers right, but what do you do when there's a limited amount of tests left in the field? They mainly reserve them for hospitalized patients or severe cases. Others with suspect symptoms are told to stay at home and call emergency when its gets really worse, period.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
..Where this 1% comes from??
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.
I think a lot of the wackos are just hoarders, you see the same thing with test equipment.
Finally some recent research data on the fomites. SARS-CoV-2 (formerly called HCoV-19) Stability Similar to Original SARS Virus.Long story short: desinfect your hands and what you are touching outside your home.
absolutely wrongDo you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days
absolutely wrongDo you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)That just confirms what I said?
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.
You are wrong. Spain haven't yet learnt any. Spain is giving of stick of blind. Here, when the goverment was been wroten the measure of the state of emergency. The forth viceminister break the quarantine and wnet to Moncloa for imposing his plan Venezuela: expropriations and nationalizations and banninig the take the competencies of health and security in Catuluña and Pais Vasco. The reunion dured several hours until the economy minister the threatened with her resignation if the plan of 4th Viceminister is aproved. Luckly, the plan of 4 viceminister wasn't aproved.The Goddamn experts can go to hell. It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn ....
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.
The CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.
More than raw numbers, the percent of total cases gives a sense of the risk to different age groups. For instance, just 1.6% to 2.5% of 123 infected people 19 and under were admitted to hospitals; none needed intensive care and none has died.
But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.
In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/)That just confirms what I said?
So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.
So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum. Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary. I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days. So not included in mandatory lock down. I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub :palm: :palm:
I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down. Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.
People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it. When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me. Sure, people are out there getting it. But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!". They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now. I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.
So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.
No. Chances are you won't be. You have less probability of being hospitalized than not being.
That does not fit with the qualifier "Chances are."
Chances are you won't.... though you still could.
So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum. Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary. I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days. So not included in mandatory lock down. I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub :palm: :palm:
I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down. Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.
People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it. When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me. Sure, people are out there getting it. But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!". They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now. I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.
I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub :palm: :palm:
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.
Nobody really needs 10 guns .............If it's a pursuit you don't partake in you can be excused for thinking such however for those that do and partake in the many sporting disciplines 10 might not be enough.
Like screwdrivers, you need a different one for each job.
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.
Google search for "corona virus age bracket", first hit:I guess you could argue about definitions but I'd qualify that as a rather small percentage, especially as the reported patients are likely the tip of a bigger iceberg with people unaware of their infection or just staying at home for a few days. The numbers or stories don't seem to reflect healthy people needing a lot of help. Elderly or people with pre-existing conditions are at risk and tend to need some to a lot of help.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/)QuoteThe CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.
More than raw numbers, the percent of total cases gives a sense of the risk to different age groups. For instance, just 1.6% to 2.5% of 123 infected people 19 and under were admitted to hospitals; none needed intensive care and none has died.
But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.
In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.
So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.
Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.Please quote numbers and sources. Gloomy prophecies aren't helpful.
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.
No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.
No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.I disagree. The regular flu costs many lives every year and that's despite it being both heavily monitored and fought with extensive flu shot programs. I don't think people understand the effort that goes into keeping the flu manageable. Yet that too is something most healthy people shrug off or sit out.
No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.I disagree. The regular flu costs many lives every year and that's despite it being both heavily monitored and fought with extensive flu shot programs. I don't think people understand the effort that goes into keeping the flu manageable. Yet that too is something most healthy people shrug off or sit out.
Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.
If had a dime every time I have read this bullshit, Jeff Bezos would be my butler.Please be civil. What you say doesn't necessarily contradict what james_s posted.
I mean, of all places, this is a forum for electronics-oriented folks.
Have you ever seen the characteristic of a diode?
What you are seeing now with Covid-19 is the part close to the axis, before the knee.
The number you mention about the flu is the maximum allowed current.
But mortality when all people have access to hospitalization and ICU when needed is the least of the problems.
The real problem is the 20% that will require hospitalization when there will be no more place for them.
If the curve is not flattened, this will make the mortality skyrocket.
Think magic smoke escaping from a diode.
Last I heard, the flu was responsible for 12,000 deaths so far this season in the USA. The extreme disparity in reaction between the flu and Covid does not appear rational to me.
If had a dime every time I have read this bullshit, Jeff Bezos would be my butler.
I mean, of all places, this is a forum for electronics-oriented folks.
Have you ever seen the characteristic of a diode?
What you are seeing now with Covid-19 is the part close to the axis, before the knee.
The number you mention about the flu is the maximum allowed current.
But mortality when all people have access to hospitalization and ICU when needed is the least of the problems.
The real problem is the 20% that will require hospitalization when there will be no more place for them.
If the curve is not flattened, this will make the mortality skyrocket.
Think magic smoke escaping from a diode.
Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.Please quote numbers and sources. Gloomy prophecies aren't helpful.
Age group | Percentage of symptomatic cases that will require hospitalization | Percentage of those hospitalized that will require ICU | Infection Fatality Ratio | Population by age group (UK mid 2019) |
0-9 | 0.10% | 5.00% | 0.002% | 8,052,552 |
10-19 | 0.30% | 5.00% | 0.006% | 7,528,144 |
20-29 | 1.20% | 5.00% | 0.03% | 8,711,750 |
30-39 | 3.20% | 5.00% | 0.08% | 8,835,591 |
40-49 | 4.90% | 6.30% | 0.15% | 8,500,792 |
50-59 | 10.20% | 12.20% | 0.60% | 8,968,055 |
60-69 | 16.60% | 27.40% | 2.20% | 7,069,544 |
70-79 | 24.30% | 43.20% | 5.10% | 5,487,167 |
80+ | 27.30% | 70.90% | 9.30% | 3,281,955 |
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?
And why are people in such a panic about Covid? Most of us will get it at some point, most of us will survive, a few will not, mostly the old and/or weak, mother nature is a cruel mistress.
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?Covid19 is likely to kill a lot more. First because of the higher mortality rate and secondly due to the severeness of the symptoms. Look at the UK numbers Cerebus posted. Likely none of the people over 50 will have an ICU bed available and will die if they need one. Do the math. In these age groups alone and you are getting into the hundreds of thousands of people easely. And nobody is lax about flu. Older people tend to get flu shots which do help.
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.How about assholes stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.
Covid19 is likely to kill a lot more. First because of the higher mortality rate and secondly due to the severeness of the symptoms. Look at the UK numbers Cerebus posted. Likely none of the people over 50 will have an ICU bed available and will die if they need one. Do the math. In these age groups alone and you are getting into the hundreds of thousands of people easely. And nobody is lax about flu. Older people tend to get flu shots which do help.The UK numbers are estimates and projections, not actual numbers. The issue is we don't have great numbers right now so we need to do some worst case guesstimating.
Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)The article posted a few posts up details how we don't have reliable numbers and the ones we do have are likely skewed. It's still a situation we need to take seriously.
The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.
Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).
So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.How about assholes stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.
The Goddamn experts can go to hell. It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.
When things go hairy, the last thing people should be doing is listening to "advice from the experts".
India has found a cure for Covid !
https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/ (https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/)
10 thousand are nothing compared to the damage Covid-19 can cause.Calm down. Remember to breathe. Frenzied posting about how Italy is burning down isn't helping anyone, especially when you consistently omit to post numbers and sources. Less emotions and more facts. You also may want to read the article posted before.
You are comparing the maximum current of a small signal diode with the maximum current of a power diode.
It's not panic, it's awareness of the risks necessary to mitigate the deadly outcome.
Do the math, and compute after how many days your country will run out of hospital beds.
The flu is a joke in comparison.
And yes, the flu is scaringly deadly. But by comparison this is far worse.
I mean, have any of you guys seen what is happening in Italy? The hospital overwhelmed? The cemeteries overwhelmed? Do you think it's even slightly comparable to the flu?
People who think it's not that different from the flu is the cause of the unnecessary spread. And that unnecessary spread is the cause of the hospitals being overwhelmed.
And that leads to unnecessary deaths.
And the problem is that I called bullshit a bullshit?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9JdcKfSpHQ)
It's like watching frogs being slowly boiled.
Hey Dave, it's still too soon for that image?
How about assholes stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.Yes, please.
Calm down. Remember to breathe. Frenzied posting about how Italy is burning down isn't helping anyone, especially when you consistently omit to post numbers and sources.
Less emotions and more facts. You also may want to read the article posted before.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.
As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.
Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)
The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.
Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).
So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.
As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.
Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.
That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.
Numbers? Sources?Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language yet do far have posted nothing more substantial than some casual US news coverage. I don't think there's much discussion to be had about that. Without a tangible understanding of what's going on we're definitely going under so we need to look, see and act.
Do you really believe this is made up?
The numbers in Italy come from the institutions there, namely the "Protezione Civile". You can read them on any 'Coronavirus counter', for example the one run by Johns Hopkins University. They match.
The "Eco di Bergamo" newspaper had ten pages of obituaries, when usually there is only one.
Does this tell you something about how silly is it to talk about the incidence of the number of tests on the CFR?
If the mortality was 10, 20 or 60 times less then EDIT: the current CFR and hence comparable to EDIT the flu you would not see that many deaths.
All the hospitals of Lombardy are running out of ICUs. And several dozens patients had already been offloaded to other regions.
Oh, I have read it. And I have already seen this before . There is always the odd virologist or odd epidemiologist who makes this kind of predictions. There were one or two in Italy as well, now they have retracted or are nowhere to be found. And they were considered highly esteemed professionals in their field.
Probably excellent doctors, a bit weak in math.
Have you read the comments? Someone there is asking where did he pull that number from.
Do you think you are original?
I've seen this going on in Italy, in Spain, in France, in UK and now in the US. It is almost unbelievable how similar the patter is, despite all the cultural differences.
The really sad part is that I do not need to convince you.
You will see for yourself.
Then, when you will try to warn people from other countries that this is not a statistical artifact, they will probably tell you "calm down, breathe". I hope you won't find the latter difficult.
The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.
As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.
Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.
That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.
I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language
Some things are normal. Indian scam merchants from the Microsoft Technical Help Department are still calling Australians daily in an attempt to commit fraud. Too bad we cannot kill these scammers with a virus.With many stuck at home, wouldn't it be a good use of time to feed the scammers junk data to waste their time?
With all the cash splashing going on over this virus, there will be scammers bleeding the system for all it is worth. Most governments cannot engineer a process quickly that is not full of holes. Most governments are reactive, no proactive. I can see scams, fiascoes and debacles on the horizon. This time it is going to be worse than the GFC cash splash, because the sums are bigger and the governments won't see the problems they have created before it is too late.
Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.Considering you flat out refuse to post anything else than "see for yourself" I can't help but conclude you don't actually know what's going on. I understand that the changes and incessant torrents of news are scary. Looking carefully at what we actually know can make it less scary.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.
What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.
Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language
Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.
What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.
How long should we keep everything shut down?
What is an acceptable number of people to force out of their livelihood depriving them of food, shelter and medicine in order to try to slow the spread?
Panic is going to make a bad situation far, far more dire.
Beijing saw a record number of imported coronavirus cases, data released on Thursday showed, as new local transmissions in China fell to zero, putting more pressure on the capital to screen out infected passengers and isolate suspected cases.
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?
Coming from a govt agency, it is estimated that 6300 deaths can be attributed to flu in the 2018-2019 period in Spain. Covid toll seems above 600 now.
A normal flu doesn't erupt in this shape of curve. And this virus has managed to kill in 2 weeks 1/10 what a normal flu will kill in 52 weeks.
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu. It would bankrupt them. So they don't. The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it. Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.
So I'm looking at it from the outside. Tell me the above isn't true... for the majority and definitely those in lower paid jobs with no medical insurance.
What are the "deaths from flu" per capita of the US compared to the rest of the western world?
How about assholes stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.Yes, please.
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu. It would bankrupt them. So they don't. The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it. Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.
The flue kills between 10,000 and 20,000 people every year in the USA. That's around 30-60 people every day, some of them quite young, when I was a kid one of my little brother's friends died of the flu when he was 8 or 9. Jim Henson died of the flu when he was 53. The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.
Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.
Are you sure?
There is a HUGE spike in deaths in every country in december/january. Take this data from the UK for example
In January dayly deaths are more than 400 the normal, this is 12000 more in one month Take that for an increase in the curve.
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu. It would bankrupt them. So they don't. The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it. Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.
I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare. :palm:
The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
|O
Just stay home as much as you can and avoid contact with others persons.
Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.
Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu. It would bankrupt them. So they don't. The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it. Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.
I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare. :palm:
The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
|O
You are confusing paid medical leave ( I was home for a week and still got paid ) with medical bills.
How about bad migraine, you take an over the counter pain killer, you have weird sensation, you call ambulance, they take you to hospital, doctor looks at you for a minute, gives you one injection, and after half an hour your're ok and you go home. A week later you get bill from a hospital for 6500 USD for "services rendered".
I had medical, so they sorted that out. That is how it was around 1999-2000 in USA. And medical didn't mean dental. You had to get that insurance extra, so you don't have to pay few hundred USD for a minor repair on a tooth.
I don't know how Obamacare works now, but it used to be, basically, you die or pay. Or they treat you and than you go bankrupt.
Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.
Our [Swiss] Hospitals offer better Service than anything I have ever seen outside Switzerland and I am pretty sure US Healthcare is the best money can buy
.
...I rather get ill here than to wait for months on treatment or sitting in an overcrowded hospital with poorly payed and overworked personal.
Look at South Korea, Hong Kong and Vietnnam.Testing is only a small part of the puzzle and due to the incubation time and non symptomatic patients it's unlikely to be the silver bullet. Important differences between Italy and South Korea are that Italy has an unusually old population and South Korea a young one. We've all seen the statistics how age impacts susceptibility. Another factor may be that Italians are heavy smokers whereas only a small percentage of South Koreans smoke.
The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.
Good like in thinking that with extensive testing the number of asymptomatics will drive down the mortality. Yes, it will, but by a point or two - you will still end up with a figure ten times more deadly than the ordinary flu. If anything, this is comparable to the Spanish (or should I call it Kansas?) flu. The big difference being that we have the same mortality with 21st century technology.
What to do is shown by the countries above.
Lockdown, early testing, isolation, disinfection.
Convert industries to produce masks and respirators (there is money to be done there, if you are a capitalist) - they did it in China, South Korea, Japan, and now Italy and the US (with the Defense Act)
But most importantly, learn some math (even basic math) and stop playing this down.
The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style). Look for local environmental issues. Many of the people who died of SARS in HK lived in one corner of one tower, due to a broken sewer pipe that was letting the infection spread in that spot. The cruise ships had so much trouble with coronavirus, because they didn't learn from this, and missed how much central air cons would make things worse if people were trapped in their cabins. Some people saw that coming, but were ignored.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.
Another factor may be that Italians are heavy smokers whereas only a small percentage of South Koreans smoke.I guess you haven't been to South Korea.
I guess you haven't been to South Korea.I'm trying to find the numbers I refer to but I'm now seeing different numbers. I may be mistaken there. The age groups are definitely distributed differently in both countries. Italy has almost twice as many people over 65.
The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style).
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.
Coming from a govt agency, it is estimated that 6300 deaths can be attributed to flu in the 2018-2019 period in Spain. Covid toll seems above 600 now.
The difference is that the press said nothing last year, and the previous, and ....
Yes, I think you have a point there. The Spanish flu also seemed had a proportionally higher mortality rate in young healthy adults, than covid and other viruses, because the strong immune response also damaged healthy cells.Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.
That's not true, you can compare that but you need to allow for the local conditions in each area and account for them separately. The US and Canada for example had no fighting on their own soil so the civilian populations were largely unaffected by the war so it's easy to see the statistics there for healthy people vs unhealthy people (civilians) that were trapped in a war zone (such as in Belgium). There were also a number of neutral countries that had healthy populations. One of the big factors in the death rates was the density of people in some areas due to the war. In the US some of the hardest hit areas were the army training camps in Kansas, yet they had unquestionably the best fed and healthiest men in the entire country. The densely packed front lines and military bases in Europe were also hit hard, as were all of the large cities world wide. Again you can look at the rates for rural Texas and for the large densely packed army bases that were in Kansas and you can clearly see the differences.
But most importantly, learn some math (even basic math) and stop playing this down.
I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed. At that point I can't afford to go to the doctor if I have a medical problem and neither will many other people. Emergency rooms cannot refuse treatment but they will be flooded with people and even though they can't refuse treatment, they can still send you a huge bill that will go to collections. If enough dominoes start crashing down clinics will start closing, research labs will shut down, manufactures producing all kinds of goods will close, imports of critical supplies and materials will stop, people will not be able to get food, medicine, shelter, electricity, heat or other essentials and people will die. If you're not familiar with the Great Depression of the 1930s you should look it up because the effects were catastrophic and lasted many years, it took a massive world war to pull the US out of that slump. It seems to me that you are advocating panic to the extent that we just shut everything down indefinitely regardless of the impacts and completely ignoring the fact that doing that could easily lead to huge numbers of deaths. Like I said already, if you don't prioritize keep flying the plane (keep the economy going) then it will crash and all the passengers will die, making your heroic efforts to solve the problem at hand irrelevant.Without wanting to start a political debate about the merits of various systems the various degrees of social welfare in Europe will likely blunt that issue. No country has infinite resources but people getting by while and until the world recovers and they do too eliminates a lot of unnecessary hurt. Cooperation will also go a long way as countries aren't hit equally hard simultaneously so resources can likely be diverted and pooled. As long as food is being produced and basic necessities are met a secondary catastrophe is averted.
An interesting article I came across discussing the current state of things:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/)
I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed.If the economy crashes everyone is screwed. No economy == no food, heat and other essentials for most of us, however much money we might have. That's why isolation measures can only be pushed so far.
No country has infinite resources
I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed.If the economy crashes everyone is screwed. No economy == no food, heat and other essentials for most of us, however much money we might have. That's why isolation measures can only be pushed so far.
Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style).As a westerner, my own appreciation of Chinese efforts is about exactly that. I've not talked about anything else, only considered the (forced) isolation efforts. It is increasingly looking like those efforts are what is needed to minimize both human lives lost, but also the financial impact, of this pandemic.
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.
That is essentially what I was getting at, it's not just me that is screwed but everybody. The #1 priority needs to be keep the economy going because if that all comes crashing down then everything else is moot.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf)
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.
The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.
The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.
Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style).As a westerner, my own appreciation of Chinese efforts is about exactly that. I've not talked about anything else, only considered the (forced) isolation efforts. It is increasingly looking like those efforts are what is needed to minimize both human lives lost, but also the financial impact, of this pandemic.
(In particular, I have not considered what happened in Nov/Dec 2019, with early whistleblowers, et cetera.)
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.
The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing, but considering there are Finnish companies exporting millions of these tests, and while the testing stations need trained people to run the tests, we have had weeks to crash-course a few dozen specialists to help with that.. we just have chosen not to, because our leaders have more important things on their mind than a pandemic. >:(
College used to be for the smart or wealthy. Now they'll lend a fortune to any idiot and they're suddenly a student. ;) The attitude you describe is exactly like the parents of unvaccinated kids who get angry when schools won't accept them.Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.
The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.
Haven't you fines and charges? Because our fines are 200€-600,000€ and 1 or 2 years of jail.Nope. We even have lots of elder folks, who are saying that they refuse to stay indoors; if they get the virus, then they get the virus. They trust the Finnish health system to take care of them, they say.
That is essentially what I was getting at, it's not just me that is screwed but everybody. The #1 priority needs to be keep the economy going because if that all comes crashing down then everything else is moot.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf)
Yeah, I don't believe that. The US is a rich country, and even if the economy were completely shut down for a month, we could afford it. What we don't have is a lot of excess healthcare capacity. Even if CV was no worse than flu, we can't handle a whole year's worth of sick people and deaths compressed into a month.
The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.The same over here but what does testing lots of people actually accomplish right now? Nothing because in the end you can't catch all cases if you are not going to test everyone in a country. The point where mass-testing serves a purpose (containment) is far behind us.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing,
I just went shopping and here it looks like the hoarding craze is dying down. Some shelves still were emptier than usual but everything looked a lot more normal. I asked staff and they confirmed things were a lot less hectic than they have been. It seems supply is picking up and demand is dying down.
The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.The same over here but what does testing lots of people actually accomplish right now? Nothing because in the end you can't catch all cases if you are not going to test everyone in a country. The point where mass-testing serves a purpose (containment) is far behind us.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing,
No country has infinite resources
normally i would say "no, US can print as many Dollars as they wish", but now with Covid-19 they will have soon no paper anymore, or toilet paper will be more worth than Dollar ^^ that means i agree with you, this time.
Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.
The same thing is happening here, especially with the young generations. There are photos in the news of big crowds of college kids frolicking on beaches in Florida like they do every year. I've heard that they think even if they do get the virus, it won't be so bad because they're young and healthy. What they selfishly don't seem to realize is that if they do contract the virus they'll be carriers and infect others, including those who aren't young and healthy.
That reinforces a statement I made the other day.... If the economy keeps crashing like this, we (literally) will start to see a regression back to a barter-related economy... (in Russia, my ex-wife tells me that already is common in the more rural areas, long before this zombie apocalypse even started)
I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday. So what did the damn kids do? They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there.... (it's about a 90 mile drive away) SMH. These damn kids just refuse to "get it." Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.
The same over here but what does testing lots of people actually accomplish right now? Nothing because in the end you can't catch all cases if you are not going to test everyone in a country. The point where mass-testing serves a purpose (containment) is far behind us.Nope. In Finland, Helsinki region is worst hit; basically everywhere else is fine.
That makes no sense to me. You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation. There's no sign of either of those happening.
Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering. Too much personal contact.
Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.
Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.
Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.
..Why do kids feel immortal:
I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday. So what did the damn kids do? They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there.... (it's about a 90 mile drive away) SMH. These damn kids just refuse to "get it." Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.
I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it!
I'm skeptical of the efficacy of testing. Say you get tested, then on the way out of the clinic or on your way home you pick up the virus. A day or so later, however long the test results take you are notified that you are negative so you go out and interact with others except you are not actually negative because you picked up the virus after being tested and now you have a false sense of security from the negative test. Perhaps I'm overlooking something though.In Finland, the problem is that lack of testing hides the problem.
I think it must be a bit more complex than that. Some people are pretty careless in their youth, but many of us grow up with a deep sense of our own vulnerability...Why do kids feel immortal:
I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday. So what did the damn kids do? They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there.... (it's about a 90 mile drive away) SMH. These damn kids just refuse to "get it." Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-food/201008/why-do-teenagers-feel-immortal (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-food/201008/why-do-teenagers-feel-immortal)
That makes no sense to me. You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation. There's no sign of either of those happening.
Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering. Too much personal contact.
I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.
Don't be so sure. The dot com bust and the recession in 2008 were devastating and took years to recover from, this could lead into another Great Depression which took a major world war to break out of.They were still largely on the gold standard by then.
I think it must be a big more complex than that. Some people are pretty careless in their youth, but many of us grow up with a deep sense of our own vulnerability.Our advancing understanding of biology makes it abundantly clear that teen brains may seem fully operational but are far from in specific and critical areas. It seems a very large part of youthful carelessness may be attributed to this. We're still figuring out what this means for how we deal with their behaviour, which includes crime.
I live in a small rural town in Texas (near a high-tech metropolis). People are acting reasonably sane. Yeah, some items at the store are cleaned out, but when you go to an establishment you do not sense any panic.Considering large parts of the world are only casually interested in the US elections I don't think the response is related. Internally within the US some of the response does seem shaped by the coming election. Though even the election may be postponed.
I am still trying to get my head around this meltdown. Was an unbeliever at first. Trying to come around to believing this is as big of a threat as advertised, but it is hard...just looking at the numbers. The spreading factor of covid19 appears to be pretty much in line with the flu. The mortality appears to tilt heavily to the older population (like me!!) but even then it seems to be those with underlying conditions. Mortality rate...we need more data.
I have looked at the data for the Princess Cruise ship. Only 1% of the infected died. Not everybody on the ship got infected. That is certainly more than the common flu would have caused but it is not crazy big.
It is an election year here in the US. I suspect that fact causes some unnatural behavior.
Considering large parts of the world are only casually interested in the US elections I don't think the response is related. Internally within the US some of the response does seem shaped by the coming election. Though even the election may be postponed.
I think anyone following news around here has seen the THL (Local "CDC") estimates that the number of real cases is 20-30 times higher than tested.
It is a completely different thing for even a respected doctor to say that although Finland is supposed to only have 400 cases, the true number is likely an order of magnitude higher, and actually having those bigger numbers from testing, when the problem is that most people don't think the situation is serious enough for them to behave any different.
Granted. But my point was directed to what is going on in the US in both media and politics. Politicians are penalized more for under-reacting, so naturally, they will martial forces for the worst-case scenario. Media reports, people panic, more over-reaction, etc (zero phase margin!). To the extent that the US has a tincture of impact on the rest of the world, others are effected.This tendency to polarize and move towards the extremes while eliminating the middle ground has long been an issue in politics. Unfortunately US politics seem to suffer considerably from this. Pandering to people's fear is much easier than nuance and the risk of getting it wrong sooner or later is one most politicians are unwilling to take even if it's better for society. Alarmist rationales are rarely punished because it makes you look like you both care and act. The video below gives some interesting insights into the process of polarization.
absolutely wrongDo you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue
Researchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.
Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.
Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.
Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.
patient one in Codogno, Northern Italy, was 38 healthy and fit (he was a runner and an amateur football player)You're severely misrepresenting my statements. I responded to a statement that a large proportion of young people need serious treatment. They don't, with some exceptions also discussed. People older than 60-70 years old represent the overwhelming majority of serious case requiring treatment. This in no way encourages behaviour which spreads the virus. One must be an unprecedented idiot to think you don't need to take precautions if you are unlikely to get seriously ill. This simply doesn't follow from the facts we established. Carelessness kills people even if it's not you. We all play a role in preventing spread.
he had to stay in ICU for a couple of weeks
many other stories like that here (yesterday a 29 years old athlete) with more than 40 thousand positive cases
lots of not so old medical staff are dying too
please stop spreading misinformation as that will encourage people to spread the disease too
for instance refer to this https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html):QuoteResearchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.
Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.
The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn ....You are wrong. Spain haven't yet learnt any. Spain is giving of stick of blind.
It doesn't have to be crazily worse than the flu.That makes no sense to me. You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation. There's no sign of either of those happening.
Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering. Too much personal contact.
I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.
I live in a small rural town in Texas (near a high-tech metropolis). People are acting reasonably sane. Yeah, some items at the store are cleaned out, but when you go to an establishment you do not sense any panic.
I am still trying to get my head around this meltdown. Was an unbeliever at first. Trying to come around to believing this is as big of a threat as advertised, but it is hard...just looking at the numbers. The spreading factor of covid19 appears to be pretty much in line with the flu. The mortality appears to tilt heavily to the older population (like me!!) but even then it seems to be those with underlying conditions. Mortality rate...we need more data.
I have looked at the data for the Princess Cruise ship. Only 1% of the infected died. Not everybody on the ship got infected. That is certainly more than the common flu would have caused but it is not crazy big.
It is an election year here in the US. I suspect that fact causes some unnatural behavior.
you can't see what is clearly there if you refuse to see itThe only thing I clearly see is the distinct lack of sources. It's remarkable how alarmist tendencies seem inversely proportional to the amount of sources posted.
[...]
I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.
Yup!Granted. But my point was directed to what is going on in the US in both media and politics. Politicians are penalized more for under-reacting, so naturally, they will martial forces for the worst-case scenario. Media reports, people panic, more over-reaction, etc (zero phase margin!). To the extent that the US has a tincture of impact on the rest of the world, others are effected.This tendency to polarize and move towards the extremes while eliminating the middle ground has long been an issue in politics. Unfortunately US politics seem to suffer considerably from this. Pandering to people's fear is much easier than nuance and the risk of getting it wrong sooner or later is one most politicians are unwilling to take even if it's better for society. Alarmist rationales are rarely punished because it makes you look like you both care and act. The video below gives some interesting insights into the process of polarization.
https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc
Yes and here's a good YouTube video about the mathematics of covid's growth, which I'm sure most people here will be familiar with but seem to need reminding of.[...]
I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.
you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure
flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with
Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.
you are just at the beginningMedical staff gets inoculated for flu every year with near compete coverage for those in contact with patients. From the CDC: "By occupation, flu vaccination coverage was highest among physicians (96.7%), nurses (98.1%), pharmacists (91.5%), and nurse practitioners and physician assistants (91.0%)".
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure
flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
[...]
I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.
you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure
flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with
Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.
Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams... :palm:
Considering the number of European politicians who have tested positive, they might just be testing the right demographic.Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams... :palm:
And the politicians, and the movie stars!
You can tell where America's priorities lay.
The long story short is that people need to calm the fuck down, stop endlessly rewatching and rehashing the same shit and take some sensible precautions. Maybe turn off the tv for a bit and do some sowing.
no the story is that people are putting their head under the sand and go on carelessly as ever
the longer you behave that way the longer the problem lasts
it is not a matter of being angry but of being rational
if all people would be able to refrain from careless and stupid behaviour the virus would get extinct within a month
unfortunately most people are just careless assholes and they do not care if they will make other people die, having their usual glass of beer at the pub is most important than somebody else's life
BTW go on like that and within a month death figures in your country will easily get above those of the flue
That reinforces a statement I made the other day.... If the economy keeps crashing like this, we (literally) will start to see a regression back to a barter-related economy... (in Russia, my ex-wife tells me that already is common in the more rural areas, long before this zombie apocalypse even started)
That makes no sense to me. You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation. There's no sign of either of those happening.
Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering. Too much personal contact.
Considering the number of European politicians who have tested positive, they might just be testing the right demographic.Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams... :palm:
And the politicians, and the movie stars!
You can tell where America's priorities lay.
Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.
As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.
And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.
CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.
Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
It's hardly surprising those who travel most will disproportionally be infected. The next thing will be someone famous dying from it.Considering the number of European politicians who have tested positive, they might just be testing the right demographic.Nah, in America, we are concentrating on testing members of sports teams... :palm:
And the politicians, and the movie stars!
You can tell where America's priorities lay.
EU chief Brexit negotiator tested positive. Now, try to track down with whom he was in contact :)
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.If you managed to stop ALL further infections in the US you would have peak number of cases about 2 weeks from now on. Peak number of deaths would probably occur 3-4weeks from now on.
As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.
And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.
CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.
Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it!
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.
As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.
And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.
CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.
Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
patient one in Codogno, Northern Italy, was 38 healthy and fit (he was a runner and an amateur football player)You're severely misrepresenting my statements. I responded to a statement that a large proportion of young people need serious treatment. They don't, with some exceptions also discussed. People older than 60-70 years old represent the overwhelming majority of serious case requiring treatment. This in no way encourages behaviour which spreads the virus. One must be an unprecedented idiot to think you don't need to take precautions if you are unlikely to get seriously ill. This simply doesn't follow from the facts we established. Carelessness kills people even if it's not you. We all play a role in preventing spread.
he had to stay in ICU for a couple of weeks
many other stories like that here (yesterday a 29 years old athlete) with more than 40 thousand positive cases
lots of not so old medical staff are dying too
please stop spreading misinformation as that will encourage people to spread the disease too
for instance refer to this https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html):QuoteResearchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.
Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.
It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked.
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.
As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.
And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.
CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.
Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
The only way to avoid this is to buy time through strict quarantine until there is a vaccine that works.
I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.
It's better if everyone behaved as if they were already infected.
It was even defended for a while that generalized testing was useless. Guess what - we just didn't have enough test kits anyway and no capacity in the short term to have more, so the rationale was convenient. Sad stuff.
These virusses are more deadly, easier to spot so these literally kill themselves when contained.I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.
Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS?
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.
As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.
And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.
CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.
Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
The only way to avoid this is to buy time through strict quarantine until there is a vaccine that works.
Well since I'm in the US I can't just dismiss that, but don't think for a moment that a catastrophic depression couldn't devastate other developed nations. We have a global economy with everything intertwined now.The problem I see is that the large amount of poor people in the US will drag the country down. Both in virus infections and possibly even riots. For the US this can turn out to be the most perfect (worst) storm ever. The only light at the end of the tunnel for the US is that Poetin is such an a-hole otherwise Europe would be doing much more business with Russia and not need the US so much.
CONCLUSION People with blood group A have a significantly higher risk for acquiring COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups, whereas blood group O has a significantly lower risk for the infection compared with non-O blood groups.
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.Perhaps you should figure out the medical details first BEFORE reaching a conclusion. You can't just say one Corona virus is like the other. It is like saying all Glycol is the same (some types of Glycol are very toxic while others are used as a food additive).
I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.
-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
Wow, I'm impressed at the apparent medical research background of the engineers here, but personally, just like I wouldn't expect a clinical pathologistDon't overestimate doctors. I had a problem with my wrist which I had to diagnose myself based on an MRI scan. Two specialists couldn't figure it out. Engineering principles apply to almost everything.
^
The key to containing a virus is catching all people who are infected. The problem with the Covid 19 virus is, is that a large number of people get infected without serious symptoms so these fly below the radar. You can compare Covid19 to a stealth bomber. You don't notice it until it is too late and you have no idea where it hits next. If it would be easy to contain the Covid19 virus then it would have been done already. The SARS outbreak never reached the proportions of Covid19. The Covid19 outbreak started in November 2019. We are almost 3 months further and there is no end in sight.
Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.
As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.
And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.
CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.
Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.
FWIW, I found a news article from last month on what happened to SARS and what might happen to COVID-19:Yep, I lived through that. Automated taps were always popular in HK, but during SARS most of the remaining manual taps in public places were replaced with automated ones. The button panels in elevators were covered in plastic film, which was wiped with steriliser every hour, and the film replaced every day. Communal door handles were sterilised every hour. And so on. Wearing a mask when sick was always a practice in Japan, but it would have looked odd in HK. SARS broke any taboo, and huge numbers of HK people wore masks in public. This practice has persisted until today. Large numbers of people in HK now wear masks when they have colds and flu to reduce their effect on others. Then the temperature and humidity rose, and it was all over. The great fear was it would come back at the end of the year, as the temperature fell, but luckily is didn't.
"John Nicholls, clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said the SARS outbreak was brought to an end in July 2003 by good hygiene practices -- such as frequent hand-washing -- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."
"That will be the same for this one," he said. "My feeling is that this is just going to be like SARS and the world is going to get basically a very bad cold for about five months."There is no guarantee of that, but so far all the bad outbreaks seem to have occurred in places at a similar temperature and humidity, so its probably a typical temperature sensitive virus.
Of course, I'm sure in the medical community there are many varied opinions on this, and since I have zero medical experience I can't comment, but at least it seems reasonable to consider that maybe this will go the way of the other coronaviruses and just die out.Not really. This is well established stuff. There is a reason colds and flu are mostly winter problems. Your chances of catching most flu like virii is considerably reduced if you just keep your nose warm at all times. The rapid rise of mask wearing in HK during SARS probably reduced infection as much by insulating people's noses when they went outside as by reducing the inhalation of the virus.
I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it!
Seasonality is much more complex:-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism..
PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer?
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.
I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.
So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.
I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.
Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS?
Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.
It has no sense to have production sites in Far East just because the production costs are ie. 4x lower, and when really needed you have to pay 50x more for it, moreover, you cannot get in time and in the amounts required.
Every government at least in EU is complaining today "we don't have this and that handy as it is produced in Far East and to get something off there is difficult, or, it costs you an arm and leg today".
These kind of pandemics will repeat much more often in the future with a similar scenario, so we have to be able to produce the stuff at home.
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.
I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.
So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.
Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2. It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it.
I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.
I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.
So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.
Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2. It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it.
Modeling data from China shows that 4 out of 5 people diagnosed with coronavirus contracted it from someone they didn't know
Of the many things that have happened in the past week since CNN's last town hall, Dr. Sanjay Gupta said one of the most surprising to him was new data from China that showed 80% of coronavirus patients contracted the virus from someone they didn't know.
"There is a message in there, I think for all of us," Gupta said. "We are, as I said, all dependent on each other more than ever, and more than I can certainly remember in my lifetime, and it's why we all have to behave like we have the virus ... you will be more careful, you will be more mindful, you will slow down."
Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost.
This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!
Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies. I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.
This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!
Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies. I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.
Exactly. The REAL problem with face masks in the USA is that there is a shortage of them. At this point you can find a gold bar on the street easier than you can get a face mask at a local drug store. The CDC apparently just told doctors to even use bandanna's if necessary. :o
New York City's mayor is now saying the city will run out of "medical supplies" within 2-3 weeks at the current rates.
-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism..
PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer?
The average age of deceased and positive COVID-19 patients is 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103, InterQuartile Range - IQR 74.3-85.9). There are 601 women (30.0%).
Figure 1 shows that the median age of COVID-19 positive deceased patients is more than 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: deceased patients 80.5 years - patients infected with 63 years).
Figure 2 shows the number of deaths by age group. Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection are older than men (median ages: women 83.7 - men 79.5).
Table 1 presents the most common pre-existing chronic pathologies (diagnosed before contracting the infection) in deceased patients. This figure was obtained in 355/2003 deaths (17.7% of the overall sample).
The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 2.7 (median 2, Standard Deviation 1.6).
Overall,
3 patients (0.8% of the sample) had 0 pathologies,
89 (25.1%) had 1 pathology,
91 had 2 pathologies (25.6%) and
172 (48.5%) had 3 or more pathologies.
To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular, 5 of these were less than 40 and they were all male people aged between 31 and 39 with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).
The UK curve, an almost perfect exponential curve of inaction!
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14)
They can't even be botherd to update that until 6pm but it always says 9am, that's public health england, hopeless morons.
Although many people around the world have been infected, a lot of people who go to the supermarket still do not wear masks and do not take any protective measures.As a Chinese who has just experienced a long period of isolation, I have to say that protection is a must.The government asked us to be quarantined for a while before we started work.Now, Chinese factories are finally operating again.But many businesses around the world are struggling to survive because of the virus. Click here to learn
Edited: deleted URL link
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Yes, that's true. You don't shit on your own doorstep.Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost.
One word: Chemicals.
So many environmental restrictions in the USA for a lot of the chemicals we use to build this stuff. (and mostly for good reason). The USA tends to use foreign countries to do our "dirty work."
I think a big benifit of face masks is they stop people from touching their faces unconsciously, thus will help cut the spread, so for most people a cheap, crappy mask will do.
This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!
Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies. I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.
Exactly. The REAL problem with face masks in the USA is that there is a shortage of them. At this point you can find a gold bar on the street easier than you can get a face mask at a local drug store. The CDC apparently just told doctors to even use bandanna's if necessary. :o
New York City's mayor is now saying the city will run out of "medical supplies" within 2-3 weeks at the current rates.
FYI, today the CDC is reporting a total of 150 people have died so far from COVID-19 in the US (population 330 million).That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly.
WHO is reporting 100 people have died so far in US.
Since yesterday the total deaths were around 50, it seems certain (IMO) that the news media will focus on the fact that the death rate has nearly doubled or tripled, rather than on the fact that it's only 100-150 deaths total.
Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."
That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?
The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.
And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.
Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.
Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."
That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?
The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.
And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.
Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
See the graph for total fatalities. Nice exponential growth. Do you expect this curve to just flatten out over night?
Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!".
Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!".
With the average estimate incubation period being 5 days and the average time between symptoms to death being 15 days. The deaths data you see today has approximately a 20 day lag time compared with infections. So it's not unreasonable to transpolate it back/forward 20 days.
And... if it stays exponential and does not reach an inflection point in under 2 weeks what will the daily death rate be then?
Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.
That's because it's not a true exponential, but a logistic function and it doesn't kill everyone who gets it. The number of new cases has only stopped in China because of the extreme restrictions imposed by the authorities over there. The rest of the world need to do the same to stop it, but most governments aren't authoritarian, like China's.Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."
That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?
The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.
And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.
Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
See the graph for total fatalities. Nice exponential growth. Do you expect this curve to just flatten out over night?
Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!".
But IMO what's more important is whether there is a slowing trend, which means the rate of new deaths is trending lower. That's what happened with SARS. The isolation measures worked, and it died out. But assuming exponential for the future IMPLIES that everyone will get it very soon and we'll all die.
I don't think that's rational. It might end up that we all die, but I think there's a reasonable case to be made, based on the results of SARS and MERS, etc., that these protective measures might end up working.
Or, we'll all die tomorrow.
We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)
In Finland, we have some very interesting times going on: opposite to what every other country is doing, the government is now lifting some restrictions, and opening schools again, all 1st to 3rd graders are free to go back if their parents so wish.On the other hand they are closing down the skiing centres in Lapland (but too slow IMO)
We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)
So the sane people here are in the survival mode, practically we are expecting a war-like situation, not only against the virus, but against the government which we have lost all trust, and which is now endangering the lives of tens of thousands.
Those who only follow local mainstream media, are reassured that nothing bad will happen.
Our president is, luckily, a somewhat sane person, so we hope he will overdrive most of the madness going on, but we'll see. Very interesting times!
By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
I suspect that its a failure in testing or slowness of reporting. Norway and Sweden have both over 10 cases, I don't see why situation in here would be different.
By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
You guys spend too much time in the sauna, it could be the virus does not like temperatures higher than 80degC.. :PI suspect that its a failure in testing or slowness of reporting. Norway and Sweden have both over 10 cases, I don't see why situation in here would be different.
By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
Or it's just a luck so far, ie nobody with the virus visiting in nursing home.
I suspect that its a failure in testing or slowness of reporting. Norway and Sweden have both over 10 cases, I don't see why situation in here would be different.
By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
Or it's just a luck so far, ie nobody with the virus visiting in nursing home.
Would match with the Swedish sauna habits where they go to lukewarm sauna below 80degC >:D
You guys spend too much time in the sauna, it could be the virus does not like temperatures higher than 80degC.. :P
We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)
Yeah, according to WHO today Italy is doing the worst of all, with 473 new deaths in the last day, compared to 42 in US and 11 in China. Spain is at 107.
By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
Actually there are a whole bunch of countries with no deaths at all. Israel, Vietnam, Iceland, much of Southeast Asia (eg, India region), etc.
So yeah, definitely it will be tough. But what doesn't kill us makes us stronger. :D
How about we talk more about wearing a face shield.
Now, if an incubator sneezes in her direction, her nose, eyes and mouth are protected. Is that plastic going to actually work? Yeah, pretty well https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24467190 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24467190) at least for 8.5 μm aerosols but less so for 3.4 μm and as the large particles settle and the smaller particles are dispersing, their effectiveness goes down because the little devils are working their way around. Although, just keeping your distance (72") helps a lot and it goes back up.
Short of a real respirator, I would choose a face shield over a face mask. At least that is my thinking right now.
The decision to stop testing except for health personnel and politically privileged individuals in Helsinki-Uusimaa region was certainly just to control the appearance of the severity of the situation; purely political.IMO the decision to limit testing to severely ill and healthcare personnel was right at the moment. Besides in here they are testing at about rate of 1200 tests per day. We are still miles ahead of US considering total population.
In fact I thought that in Europe many businesses shut down for a month or so every year as standard practice for some holiday or something? Or maybe I'm mis-remembering.
IMO the decision to limit testing to severely ill and healthcare personnel was right at the moment. Besides in here they are testing at about rate of 1200 tests per day. We are still miles ahead of US considering total population.Do you realize that Juha Sarkio (director-general of the public governance department of the Finnish ministry of finance) would not have been able to get tested, if he was just an ordinary citizen? His exposure was under the THL requirements for getting tested; the only reason he got tested was his connections.
Do you have any idea how many Finns currently have coronavirus-like symptoms from the dozen of other viruses in the circulation?
Testing 5% or 20% people with symptoms doesn't make difference other than feeding social porn need of people and press.What you call "social porn" is what I call "understanding the severity of the situation". Because the numbers are kept artificially low (just look at the nice, linear curve for the last six days at korona.kans.io (https://korona.kans.io/)), people are not taking things seriously.
Come back in six months and then you can tell if the fear was irrational or not. I'm pretty certain that you have never been through an empidemic and have no idea what it's like. I've been through one it's not something that should ever be treated lightly.That's not what he said. People need to stop interpreting the refusal to get caught up in the panic and fear as treating things lightly. Fear is useless. Preparation is not. The best thing to do is stay calm, take sensible precautions and monitor the situation. Endlessly repeating it's going to be horrible is useless and counter productive. Many people are going to die. We know this. Get ready.
NO - you wrote:You wrote "lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath" which simply isn't true. Some do, but those seem to be unfortunate exceptions.QuoteIt's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked.
and I replied:Quoteeven lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
there is no reference to a proportion, no percentage
healthy and fit people are dying now
without ICU would die even more
THIS IS NOT FLUE
it is completely false that they areQuotealmost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness
I showed that even some kids did need ICU in China
I never said a huge proportion of kids
it is you who used the term "almost exclusively"
Deciding not to test isn't necessarily, fundamentally a bad idea; it's, however, the polar opposite of the WHO and expert advice, so to take such a fundamentally different approach than the others, is a human experiment.
So as long as people do continue to socialize, maybe just limiting it "by a little bit" as instructed by the officials and the media here (there are many conflicting instructions; people pick which suits them best, which is the "reducing socializing a little bit is enough" advice), the best way to work around this is to test, test, and again, test. When someone tests positive, then they most likely take the quarantine seriously, and it's easier to enforce for those very few who still won't.
Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.
We mostly don't get news about Italy and Spain now in the mass media anymore, because the news are too bad. Most of the information from our Government from now is echo chambering how well they think they are handling the situation, and how Finland has definitely enough resources in the healthcare (as the only country in the world!)
Yeah, according to WHO today Italy is doing the worst of all, with 473 new deaths in the last day, compared to 42 in US and 11 in China. Spain is at 107.
By the way, WOW, Finland has NO DEATHS at all from COVID19. Bravo.
Actually there are a whole bunch of countries with no deaths at all. Israel, Vietnam, Iceland, much of Southeast Asia (eg, India region), etc.
just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.
just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.
What the fuck? At the morning 8am we were 833 deaths. Now , when i am writing the message are almost 4pm in Spain, we are 1102 deaths. Almost 300 deaths more than this morning.
Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator1 of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).
So yeah, definitely it will be tough. But what doesn't kill us makes us stronger. :D
Tell that to someone who "recovers" from this coronavirus with permanent lung damage.
Tell that to the tens of thousands of people who have already lost their jobs here in the past week, or the hundreds of thousands that will be out of work soon as this drags on for months and leaves closures and bankrupcies in its wake...
This is likely to really, really suck...
(Mostly from the follow-on consequences more than the actual virus,...)
I've read various times that those people who recovered, even young ones, lost smell and taste senses and none knows how and if they'll ever get them backThis doesn't sound conveniently scary yet unspecific at all. :palm:
Do you realize that Juha Sarkio (director-general of the public governance department of the Finnish ministry of finance) would not have been able to get tested, if he was just an ordinary citizen? His exposure was under the THL requirements for getting tested; the only reason he got tested was his connections.Even if I normally would wish 90% of politic figures happy journey to hell I think its equally important to keep the existing government operational and healthy as the healthcare workers in a situation like this.
just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) (US: 15,367 cases 177 deaths)This is the equivalent of just pointing someone to Google. It's becoming clear you have no interest in the subject or actually discussing it. You've been asked to contribute anything tangible or substantial and consistently refuse to do so, which at this point can only be interpreted as being intentionally facetious. How about you just go away and let the adults have a productive discussion?
something may be wrong here on in the previous one (probably here they forgot to update the cases number as it is the same I read yesterday):
https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/ (https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/) (US: 14,631 cases 210 deaths)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) (US: 15,367 cases 177 deaths)This is the equivalent of just pointing someone to Google. It's becoming clear you have no interest in the subject or actually discussing it. You've been asked to contribute anything tangible or substantial and consistently refuse to do so, which at this point can only be interpreted as being intentionally facetious. How about you just go away and let the adults have a productive discussion?
something may be wrong here on in the previous one (probably here they forgot to update the cases number as it is the same I read yesterday):
https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/ (https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/) (US: 14,631 cases 210 deaths)
we are just telling there is a hole in our Titanic ship but you pretend to ignore that and go on drinking and dancingNo, we're not. That's just your excuse to stir panic and act up. People are putting on life vests and getting into boats while you're running and shouting and tripping people up.
That's not what he said. People need to stop interpreting the refusal to get caught up in the panic and fear as treating things lightly. Fear is useless. Preparation is not. The best thing to do is stay calm, take sensible precautions and monitor the situation. Endlessly repeating it's going to be horrible is useless and counter productive. Many people are going to die. We know this. Get ready.
I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better.
there is no point to try to slow it down too much
LOLIt does. I'm glad you're finally coming to terms with your limitations.
this looks like a case study of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection) ;D
Deciding not to test isn't necessarily, fundamentally a bad idea; it's, however, the polar opposite of the WHO and expert advice, so to take such a fundamentally different approach than the others, is a human experiment.
Indeed. I find this rather blunt to defend the opposite view now that the WHO has made the point clearly.
As I already said multiple times, the real point IMO in many countries is that we just don't have the capacity to do more testing. So we just can't comply, and find reasons not to (so the populations don't panic and get back at their governments, which admittedly would just make things worse at the very moment.) Just MHO.So as long as people do continue to socialize, maybe just limiting it "by a little bit" as instructed by the officials and the media here (there are many conflicting instructions; people pick which suits them best, which is the "reducing socializing a little bit is enough" advice), the best way to work around this is to test, test, and again, test. When someone tests positive, then they most likely take the quarantine seriously, and it's easier to enforce for those very few who still won't.
Agreed. Besides relentlessly working on a future vaccine, we should definitely work very hard on devising quick and cheap tests.
19:37 - WHO: collapsed hospitals, it is not bad influence
«There are health systems collapsing. This is not normal, ”said Michael Ryan, WHO's executive director of the emergency health program in the usual daily briefing. “Look at intensive care in some parts of the world, completely overwhelmed. Look to the exhausted doctors and nurses. This is not normal. This is not a simple particularly negative flu season. "
If it turns out we over reacted, things will bounce back again.
I think its equally important to keep the existing government operational and healthy as the healthcare workers in a situation like this.I would put government officials secondary to healthcare workers and those who need to interact with people, like tellers and delivery people.
If testing capacity currently is 1500 tests per dayThat, too, is completely arbitrary number. There are several companies in Finland, including Aidian (https://www.aidian.fi/), that manufacture the tests in the millions, and export them. While you do need trained technicians to run the tests, we could have crash-trained dozens of them in the past two months.
I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better.Me too, for over a week now. I am not interested in getting myself tested either.
If the purpose is to suffer through this disease there is no point to try to slow it down too much. Delaying tactics until vaccination don't seem probable.Except for the number of dead that would have remained alive with intensive care, of course.
Korean and Chinese strategy was to contain it. In here at the moment we have choice left if we delay it for half a month or half a year. 100k or 50k in deaths. Option for 5k deaths went year ago.I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better.
The purpose is not to make you feel any better, the purpose is to quarantine you if it's the corona, so that you won't possibly infect 1000 people more.
Case study: South Korea. Look it up. They have practically won already, and they did it with extensive testing, including drive-in free test stations.Quotethere is no point to try to slow it down too much
Slowing down have worked great in China and South Korea, and the idea is that you don't need to choose who dies and who lives, and don't need the military to dump bodies in masses in makeshift creamatories, which is now the reality in Italy. Again, look it up.
It's possible there's second wave in China and South Korea, in which case, the inconvinience comes back again. It's still easier.
You realize that if we decide not to have the inconvinience, this means approximately 200 000 dead bodies in Finland within a few weeks, and assuming you are a healthy male, you will likely be one of those called in for military service to dispose the bodies. THIS is what no one wants, THIS is why the actions are taking place. With the actions currently in place, it won't be that bad, but it will be still bad. With heavier actions, like China or South Korea, it would be much better.
So believe or not, yes, it really is mandatory to slow it down, in fact it seems no country has decided not to take any action whatsoever. Luckily you don't decide. Luckily Sale decided.
I hope you and your friends are self-quarantining already. Testing would help set you free if it's negative.
No doubt this is going to be our wake-up call for high capacity PCR testing.
There are several companies in Finland, including Aidian (https://www.aidian.fi/), that manufacture the tests in the millions, and export them. While you do need trained technicians to run the tests, we could have crash-trained dozens of them in the past two months.Aidian quick-test is antibody test. Easy&Fast&Cheap but not great if usable at all in early stages of infection. Takes something like 5 days from infection to get reasonably reliable results.
Time for some nuance. Having the disease is much like the flu. It could be somewhat more lethal than regular flu percentage wise but the difference seems minor and some say selective testing may mean it's actually less lethal as most patients are never recorded. A significant amount don't get sick which seems part of the problem. Most healthy people can just sit the disease out without issue. A few will need serious intervention. This is what I said before.Quote19:37 - WHO: collapsed hospitals, it is not bad influence
«There are health systems collapsing. This is not normal, ”said Michael Ryan, WHO's executive director of the emergency health program in the usual daily briefing. “Look at intensive care in some parts of the world, completely overwhelmed. Look to the exhausted doctors and nurses. This is not normal. This is not a simple particularly negative flu season. "
source:
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_marzo_20%2Fcoronavirus-ultime-notizie-dall-italia-mondo-39828fbc-6a74-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_marzo_20%2Fcoronavirus-ultime-notizie-dall-italia-mondo-39828fbc-6a74-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml)
according to Mr. Scram (and mr Trump) this is just like flu
thousands of experts saying otherwise, tenths of studies published recently... it doesn't matter... of course those are just opinions
you can't compare those to Mr Scram facts :-DD
Aidian quick-test is antibody test.Yup, it was just an example. A quick lookup finds companies like Abacus Diagnostica (https://www.abacusdiagnostica.com/) that do PCR testing equipment (fully automated PCR and RT-PCR). I do not personally know these companies, only that there are quite a few internationally known ones here.
I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.COVID-19 affecting people with vulnerable lungs more than a regular flu doesn't seem disputed. Smoking does a number on pretty much everything in your body. It'd be interesting to see whether the statistics show that smoking in itself means being at increased risk from COVID-19.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLSG-7K3Tc&t=4s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLSG-7K3Tc&t=4s)
Yeah, I thought we nailed this "it's just like the flu" bullshit, but denial is powerful. It's like trying to argue with Flat Earthers. Fortunately, world leaders are taking it seriously, even if it takes a week or two to get through the initial shock. The fact there is no community immunity to Covid-19 makes it completely and different to seasonal flu. It's a really moronic comparison.You really need to strip what is actually said of all nuance to get to where you suppose we are.
People waiting for "all the facts" before taking it seriously will find health systems totally overwhelmed well before they see people near them dying. This is NOT about individual risk but society. What people don't realise is that health systems assume that 99.99% of the population are healthy enough not to need critical care. Better not need any critical care in the near future, there will be a very long queue.
And now cue more denial in 3..2..1.. :palm:
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
On the positive side, even if the results are still few and preliminary, note that Chloroquine is currently giving hope.
"Those are two that are out now, essentially approved for prescribed use," Trump said of the antiviral drug Remsdesivir, which has never been approved by the FDA for any disease, and the drug chloroquine, which has only been approved to treat malaria and some arthritis -- neither is approved for COVID-19.
"And I think it's going to be very exciting. I think it could be a game changer. And maybe not. Maybe not, but I think it could be, based on what I see, it could be a game changer. Very powerful, they’re very powerful," he said.
I feel a large part of the reason some people get upset by comparing COVID-19 to a regular flu is that they may severely underestimate the actual impact of the flu. People may view it as a disease which you sit out which is true in many cases, but don't really consider the millions of patients and many thousands of deaths every year despite considerable efforts to combat it. COVID-19 isn't compared to the flu because it's nothing. It is compared because of many similarities and our experience fighting it, though there obviously are relevant differences too.:palm: I don't get why you insist on denying the major difference between the flu and Covid19. Covid19 causes pneumonia / ARDS which requires a far more extensive treatment compared to the flu. Sure flu kills people too but in most cases these are people who are already weakened and thus are close to death anyway. OTOH Covid19 also seriously affects healthy people due to the pneumonia / ARDS. This shouldn't need explaining with all the information already presented.
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it.
:palm: I don't get why you insist on denying the major difference between the flu and Covid19. Covid19 causes pneumonia / ARDS which requires a far more extensive treatment compared to the flu. Sure flu kills people too but in most cases these are people who are already weakened and thus are close to death anyway. OTOH Covid19 also seriously affects healthy people due to the pneumonia / ARDS. This shouldn't need explaining with all the information already presented.I just discussed lungs being affected differently a few posts ago. COVID-19 doesn't seem to affect healthy people on a significant scale. Younger healthy people don't fall very ill or have something which looks a lot like a regular flu with a nasty cough. The vast majority of serious cases and deaths are in China were the 70 plus age bracket and people with pre-existing conditions. Western numbers seem to show similar patterns. There are exceptions as there are with flu. When people do get seriously ill they can need ventilation which indeed is a difference.
This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...We don't want to slow it to flu like speed either as that facilitates endless loops of infection. Not that we really have to worry about that now.
Look at the silver lining.I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?
If you catch it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".
Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.
As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.
Up until a couple of years ago I rarely if ever got sick or even caught a cold but last year I was struck with the flu and suffered terribly in isolation for a few weeks. I tried everything at the time including Tamiflu but couldn't shake it off and really don't want to go through that experience again. ::)
I already have heart disease, vascular disease and respiratory problems so am not looking forward to catching this new virus at all. Unfortunately the people around here still don't seem to understand as they continue to attend at the local supermarket like it's an opportunity for a social gathering. :o
COVID-19 doesn't seem to affect healthy people on a significant scale. Younger healthy people don't fall very ill or have something which looks a lot like a regular flu with a nasty cough.
Look at the silver lining.I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?
If you catch it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".
Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.
As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?When you look at the recent Italian statistics on fatalities I posted above you may see the covid19 does not kill you actually, but those "pre-existing conditions".. There is a detailed list with % in Italy as of March 17th.Look at the silver lining.I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?
If you catch it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".
Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.
As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.
Deaths without any PECs are rare actually.
That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment. I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.Equating hospitalization for flu and Covid is likely to lead to skewed results. People are used to flu but extreme caution was and is taken with Covid. Add to that the likely large number of unreported cases and the hospitalization rate becomes a very loose number. We'll likely learn more about the actual rates or at least better estimates when thing have calmed down and things are looked at more carefully.
..But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular, 5 of these were less than 40 and they were all male people aged between 31 and 39 with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?One can also ask how long they would have lived if they didn't have pre-existing conditions. Judging by the numbers the overwhelming majority would likely have been fine. This virus seems to bring any existing cracks to light. Regardless, it seems sensible to count them as Covid deaths but as far as I can tell that's happening.
Not much time/data for quality epidemiological works (that I could find), but a lesser quality reference to start with:I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.COVID-19 affecting people with vulnerable lungs more than a regular flu doesn't seem disputed. Smoking does a number on pretty much everything in your body. It'd be interesting to see whether the statistics show that smoking in itself means being at increased risk from COVID-19.
That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment. I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.Equating hospitalization for flu and Covid is likely to lead to skewed results. People are used to flu but extreme caution was and is taken with Covid. Add to that the likely large number of unreported cases and the hospitalization rate becomes a very loose number. We'll likely learn more about the actual rates or at least better estimates when thing have calmed down and things are looked at more carefully.
Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance. >:D
.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.There is also a parameter called "viral load".
Years of potential life lost will need lots more data and research to settle on, but historically (in Australia) deaths from Influenza claimed 4 years of life on average which is right down at the low end with things like heart disease (also 4 years). Contrast against the publicised/emotive examples:But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?One can also ask how long they would have lived if they didn't have pre-existing conditions. Judging by the numbers the overwhelming majority would likely have been fine. This virus seems to bring any existing cracks to light. Regardless, it seems sensible to count them as Covid deaths but as far as I can tell that's happening.
Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ... :-+ :clap:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w)
Nowadays someone could make a fortune from sweat smell perfume!Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance. >:D
Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.
The first casualty of war is the truth.
.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.There is also a parameter called "viral load".
An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.."
How the viral load could affect those calculations?
Aww c'mon. Do you really think that the criteria for "seriously ill enough to need a hospital bed" are going to be downgraded from an abundance of caution at a time when there is pressure on hospital beds?It's unfortunate people seem to be misconstruing my words. Anyone who thinks I'm of the opinion we don't have a very serious situation on our hands and need to act with conviction is gravely mistaken. This is reflected by my behaviour in real life as well. I'm doing my part.
I think at this point it's becoming pretty clear that you want to believe this to be less serious then it is and you're not going to be convinced by the pretty conclusive evidence that we've already seen that this is an order of magnitude more serious than seasonal flu.
Taking a reasoned, proportioned reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, based on facts, is one thing. It helps no one if people's reaction to this gets out of proportion. Downplaying it to the point of near denial of how serious the situation is, is just as unhelpful in the other direction.
This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.
The video is propaganda :bullshit:.
The first casualty of war is the truth.
Others have pointed out the distinction made by the Italian statistics, but let me add that even in today's conference by the "Protezione Civile", Roberto Bernabei, specialist in geriatry, said that of the first 355 clinical documentations analyzed resulted that "only 3 patients died FOR coronavirus", all the others dies WITH coronavirus. I mean, I understand when they did that pantomime the first and second week, to try sugarcoat the pill, but now...The worldometer website at the time om writing reports 4032 deaths. Are you saying these are exclusively healthy people with no pre-existing conditions and that when those are included the number is much higher?
A member of the press asked why there is such a big difference in mortality (or letality - it's the press) between Italy and Germany and the answer was on the line of 'we don't know how these deaths are classified". Now, it's possible the the German had small clusters promptly identified and isolated and that extensive testing of nonsymptomatic patients is keeping the count down, but back in february when Italy had run 20 thousand tests, only 2000 were positive. Where were all those asymptomatic ninjas?
Also, do you believe Iran is giving the right number of deaths?
But, aside from this, my point is that it's the media that is making this distinction, namely that you don't die of Covid-19. You die of other illnesses and covid-19 just give old farts with a foot in the grave the coup-de-grace.
And you can see this is the message that goes to the masses and is surfacing in this very forum as well.
It kills old people with preexisting conditions.
WHOOOOOO, SPRING BREAK!!! LET'S PARTYYYYYYEEEEAHHHHHHH!!!
Let me ask you something: how many people over sixty has a preexisting condition that can result in death from covid-19?
Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.
The first casualty of war is the truth.
The worldometer website at the time om writing reports 4032 deaths. Are you saying these are exclusively healthy people with no pre-existing conditions and that when those are included the number is much higher?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/)
We have been told by doctors here masks worn by the public do nothing unless the wearer has the virus. I went shopping yesterday in a shopping centre, and except for one westerner the only people wearing marks were Chinese.
Maybe we have been fed :bullshit: by our government too because they did not want a run on masks.
Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance. >:D
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.
I am just curious: do you happen to own a red baseball hat?
I am just curious: do you happen to own a red baseball hat?
Now keep it civil, he's clearly not that deluded.
Nothing wrong with my Cardinals hat!
.. This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R0 for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.There is also a parameter called "viral load".
An expert from a virology lab [no reference, sorry] was talking on the cov19 vs. flu and he mentioned "..the viral load of the sars-cov-2 in the samples of our asymptotic patient was unbelievably high compared to influenza-A, the same load with flu and you would be dead.."
How the viral load could affect those calculations?
It doesn't. R0 and case fatality ratio may be an effect of viral load, but they measure end points that might be affected by viral load not something that you can then add a 'viral load' factor to.
The Spanish flu some 100 years ago was pretty nasty and devastating - let us hope it does not get that bad. So it depends on which flu season one compares. A big difference with the flu is that at least the medical personal is usually vaccinated. So treatment in the hospitals is much easier - much less personal and masks needed. Still the death toll from the regular flu can be pretty high, but it is largely unnoticed as is does not overwhelm the medical system so easy. Most of the years the flu shot is pretty effective so the spread is slowed down and limited.
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it.
Some doctor said it might be related to that missing leg in the XY chromosomes.
But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?
Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ... :-+ :clap:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zElnBGUj-w)
Something not right here. Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's. Notice all the carefully selected scenery is modern and clean. Heaps of red army style saluting going on. All these exhausted doctors are all laughing and happy. They would be suffering from exhaustion in reality, and they would be emotional wrecks after they have witnessed so much misery. Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.
The first casualty of war is the truth.
Let me ask you something: how many people over sixty has a preexisting condition that can result in death from covid-19?
of course that is also a form of propaganda, but medical staff exhaustion is over since days if not weeks as new cases have been lower and lower for a while
stop looking for evil plots
We have been told by doctors here masks worn by the public do nothing unless the wearer has the virus. I went shopping yesterday in a shopping centre, and except for one westerner the only people wearing marks were Chinese. Maybe we have been fed :bullshit: by our government too because they did not want a run on masks.
It’s a nightmare. It really feels like being in a war field. Just today 4 patients died in my unit. Patients are continuously transferred to the critical area of the crisis unit or to the intensive care unit.
Dozens of patients arrive from the ER and you put them in the empty beds that you’ve just cleared with the transfers, in the best option. The suspected COVID19 patients are allocated right away with the frankly positive patients because you don't really have the chance, resources or the time to run the test or wait for its result.
The patients that die are put in horrible black bags and brought immediately to the obituary. From the obituary they're sent right away to the crematorium. It all happens under the eyes of the other perfectly awake COVID19 patients who are still breathing with some respiratory support. These patients are forced to witness what might happen to them within few hours because there are no curtains to pull to avoid this psychological torture. COVID19 patients die alone and they see it coming with fierce rawness.
At the end of the shift you have to call the families and give them an update, too often it's a notice of where they might find the ashes of their beloved ones. It's excruciating.
I never thought I'd have to live through something like this. I feel lost, I'm terrified.
This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...
I think we have to watch what happens in China and Korea (I trust the numbers from the latter most) to see what happens to the number of deaths. It seems Korea is moving towards a flattened curve but it will take another week before you can reach a solid conclusion.This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...
I fail to see the problem here. If or when the second wave comes, the society has already learnt how to suppress it. People have had months of time to carefully build their own stock of food to reduce unnecessary shopping. People have already set up connections for remote work. Everything's set. Yes, it's uncomfortable, again, but less than before. Each new wave is easier than the previous ones. And what's best, each wave has its peak regulated not to severely exceed the capacity of ICUs.
There still isn't second wave in China. I fail to see how you could suppress the spread "too much"; fairly theoretical extreme. The opposite, suppressing too little seems to be an actual problem.
I fail to see the problem here. If or when the second wave comes, the society has already learnt how to suppress it. People have had months of time to carefully build their own stock of food to reduce unnecessary shopping. People have already set up connections for remote work. Everything's set. Yes, it's uncomfortable, again, but less than before. Each new wave is easier than the previous ones. And what's best, each wave has its peak regulated not to severely exceed the capacity of ICUs.
There still isn't second wave in China. I fail to see how you could suppress the spread "too much"; fairly theoretical extreme. The opposite, suppressing too little seems to be an actual problem.
The problem is that when the whole population buys masks, the people really at very high risk like the healthcare workers may run out of supplies.
Chinese Red Cross Vice President Sun Shuopeng warned Italians that they were risking lives by not adhering to the novel coronavirus lockdown. He made the comments after visiting Milan in the hardest-hit region of Italy, which has recorded 41,035 cases and 3,405 deaths. “Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by COVID-19, the lockdown measures are very lax,” the veteran of the Wuhan epidemic fight said Thursday. “I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masks.” Sun warned that the resistance to the lockdown will prove deadly. “I don’t know what people here are thinking. We really have to stop our usual economic activities and our usual human interactions. We have to stay at home and make every effort to save lives. It is worth putting every cost we have into saving lives.”
The reason China has the transmission down to 0 is they haven't really even started lifting most restrictions. Most people in the most highly affected areas are still under total lockdown.
I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it.
Some doctor said it might be related to that missing leg in the XY chromosomes.
that mainly affects life expectancy... it is also reversed in species where sex is determined by chromosomes difference in females (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZW_sex-determination_system)
apart from smoke I read some think better survival rates depend on estrogen hormones
One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.
They haven't had years of FEAR MONGERING pumped into them yet by TV, news, movies, poor education, 'end of the world' (again..?) gossip/rumors, generic ignorance etc
Give them time, they'll get there just like we did,
and like us they can choose whether to be civil and exercise concern and courtesy during a panic show,
or become low life 'look after #1' attitude dunny paper hoarders,
that only think about their own family's pampered rear ends
and kcuf everyone else
"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.
For a permanent hospital those are obvious requirements. In case of emergency anything goes. I just read some news articles that hotels and dorm rooms are being converted into temporary hospitals. In the Netherlands they moved the maternity department of a hospital to a hotel.Having been involved in building and electrical work in hospitals may years ago I know that a lot of specification goes on that you wouldn't see in commercial premises. Are surfaces easily sterilized, can electrical outlets be sterilized. Anything that can trap dust is a no no - there are brackets for electrical conduit know in the trade as 'hospital brackets' that stand proud enough from surfaces that the conduit can be cleaned all around. And so on, and so on.Buses are modern and the passengers all have high end phones, taking photos of the benign scenery. New China TV is owned by the notorious government news agency Xinhua. The video is propaganda :bullshit:.Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.
The first casualty of war is the truth.
For a permanent hospital those are obvious requirements. In case of emergency anything goes. I just read some news articles that hotels and dorm rooms are being converted into temporary hospitals. In the Netherlands they moved the maternity department of a hospital to a hotel.Probably. One of my thoughts is: why would they build new hospitals in China when they could just as easely have emptied a hotel or office building? If you look at the construction videos you notice that the prefab buildings they erected are just office buildings. Something is not right.Having been involved in building and electrical work in hospitals may years ago I know that a lot of specification goes on that you wouldn't see in commercial premises. Are surfaces easily sterilized, can electrical outlets be sterilized. Anything that can trap dust is a no no - there are brackets for electrical conduit know in the trade as 'hospital brackets' that stand proud enough from surfaces that the conduit can be cleaned all around. And so on, and so on.
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.
What makes the West correct?
Read somewhere that so far the muslim population in UK has been hit hardest. Like 10x infections or something.
I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)Quote"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.
they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU
the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)Quote"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.
they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU
Read somewhere that so far the muslim population in UK has been hit hardest. Like 10x infections or something.
I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
Extended families with grandparents living under the same roof and eating habits like sharing the same plate of food among family members.
Something not right here. Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.There is some conflicting information on this, but most sources I have read seem to agree that a mask can help problematic stuff both ways.
Pretty sure I saw percents also mentioned somewhere but this is a concern even mids muslims themself, not just some white-chistian-nutjobRead somewhere that so far the muslim population in UK has been hit hardest. Like 10x infections or something.
I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
Extended families with grandparents living under the same roof and eating habits like sharing the same plate of food among family members.
Likely to be bullshit propaganda put out by some nut-job who wants to cast Muslims in a bad light.
I live in one of, if not the, the most Muslim boroughs in the country (32% of population) and there are, as of now, 42 officially confirmed cases (irrespective of religion etc. etc) out of 350,000 people in the borough (12/100,000), a comparable rate to other London boroughs. Our (less densely populated) neighbour Essex has 2.92 cases/100,000 and 0.3% Muslims, the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea (richest, and probably the 'whitest' London borough - over 70% white) 42.2 cases/100,000. Based on that, it's clearly rich white folks who are the hotbed of disease.
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.
What makes the West correct?
China really have shown the rest of the world how to deal with the problem.If I understood correctly, the idea was that the Chinese predicted when the peak demand in intensive care is going to be, and being prepared early, they could build something which is inbetween a really proper hospital, and a makeshift temporary hospital converted from something else. The details matter, and you can get many details right (even if not all) when you have a week to design and another to build. If you are super efficient, at least.
China built TWO types of new hospitals, makeshift ones and semi-permanent ones. The former is for taking confirmed patients from society to a controlled recovery place, the latter is to treat those severe cases that need real hospital resources.
In Wuhan, they built 16 makeshift ones, and they can be taken apart overnight too. After all those are just foam boards and MDF boards placed in stadiums. Those real hospitals took longer to built, clocking in at 7 days and 10 days, and they have real gears like properly ventilated wards, CT scanners, labs and more. They only built two of them in Wuhan, and a few in other major cities anticipating mass influx of patients from abroad.
Some of those semi-permanent hospitals will be converted to permanent settings for future pandemic mitigation, like the original one in Beijing built for SARS (conversion started late January, finished early March), some will remain there for future conversion. I don't see they plan to remove any of them.
Pretty sure I saw percents also mentioned somewhere but this is a concern even mids muslims themself, not just some white-chistian-nutjobRead somewhere that so far the muslim population in UK has been hit hardest. Like 10x infections or something.
I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
Extended families with grandparents living under the same roof and eating habits like sharing the same plate of food among family members.
Likely to be bullshit propaganda put out by some nut-job who wants to cast Muslims in a bad light.
I live in one of, if not the, the most Muslim boroughs in the country (32% of population) and there are, as of now, 42 officially confirmed cases (irrespective of religion etc. etc) out of 350,000 people in the borough (12/100,000), a comparable rate to other London boroughs. Our (less densely populated) neighbour Essex has 2.92 cases/100,000 and 0.3% Muslims, the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea (richest, and probably the 'whitest' London borough - over 70% white) 42.2 cases/100,000. Based on that, it's clearly rich white folks who are the hotbed of disease.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-muslim-mosque-closure-prayer-nhs-a9411936.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-muslim-mosque-closure-prayer-nhs-a9411936.html)
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.
What makes the West correct?
To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel. When the threat was far, laught and without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.
Here,this is the video of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.
https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)
of course that is also a form of propaganda, but medical staff exhaustion is over since days if not weeks as new cases have been lower and lower for a while
stop looking for evil plots
Since you are using Italian flag, just curious as these are not covered mostly by western news agencies.
Is it true China have sent medical teams and also medical supplies to Italy to help ? Or its just another lie ?
The problem is that when the whole population buys masks, the people really at very high risk like the healthcare workers may run out of supplies.
This!
I'm quite certain that if there were actually an abundant supply of masks, most public health officials would be advising that everyone wear one. This is not so much for the wearer to prevent becoming infected, rather to help curtail the spread from those that may not even know they're spreading it.
Public health officials here are correct, in that we really all should be acting like we each already have the virus when interacting with others to help limit the spread from those without obvious symptoms.
I found it very striking that one of the first things that the Dr. from the Chinese Red Cross team that is in Italy now to help give guidance to the government said in his statement was basically, "You're doing this all wrong! You're not restricting people nearly enough! Your mass transit is still running! Why is everyone not wearing masks?!"
Edit: Found the actual quote:QuoteChinese Red Cross Vice President Sun Shuopeng warned Italians that they were risking lives by not adhering to the novel coronavirus lockdown. He made the comments after visiting Milan in the hardest-hit region of Italy, which has recorded 41,035 cases and 3,405 deaths. “Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by COVID-19, the lockdown measures are very lax,” the veteran of the Wuhan epidemic fight said Thursday. “I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masks.” Sun warned that the resistance to the lockdown will prove deadly. “I don’t know what people here are thinking. We really have to stop our usual economic activities and our usual human interactions. We have to stay at home and make every effort to save lives. It is worth putting every cost we have into saving lives.”
of course that is also a form of propaganda, but medical staff exhaustion is over since days if not weeks as new cases have been lower and lower for a while
stop looking for evil plots
Since you are using Italian flag, just curious as these are not covered mostly by western news agencies.
Is it true China have sent medical teams and also medical supplies to Italy to help ? Or its just another lie ?
no that's true, and they have criticized Italian people because just still too many of them do not abide by the quarantine rules
they have also sent a lot of supplies a huge part of with has been stolen by the asshole who rule the Czech republic (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2975122/#msg2975122)
the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)Quote"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.
they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU
Few days back a seller offered masks to CZ Ministry of Health for an unusually high price, stocked in CZ. Ministry declined and informed police.
Police seized the complete stock of 680k masks according to the current "CZ law in state of emergency" and the Ministry paid the seller the usual price.
Police investigated the case and found out 101k masks from that stock were a donation from the Red Cross of Qingtian City of China's Zhejiang province to Chinese expatriates in Italy.
CZ and Zhejiang province is organizing the replacement.
http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm (http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm)
Edit: typos
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.
What makes the West correct?
To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel. When the threat was far, laught and without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.
Here,this is the video of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.
https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)
You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.
I think the higher smoking rate in Chinese men was probably most likely to blame for the higher death rate in males. I don't have any definite statistics but I believe the sex ratio of smokers in my age group in the UK is opposite: more females, than male smokers. If I cast my mind back to when I was 15, more of the girls at school smoked, than the boys. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the UK.
If I understood correctly, the idea was that the Chinese predicted when the peak demand in intensive care is going to be, and being prepared early, they could build something which is inbetween a really proper hospital, and a makeshift temporary hospital converted from something else. The details matter, and you can get many details right (even if not all) when you have a week to design and another to build. If you are super efficient, at least.
the Czech Republic has seized thousands of masks sent from China to Italy (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.repubblica.it%2Festeri%2F2020%2F03%2F21%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_cosi_la_repubblica_ceca_ha_sequestrato_680_mila_mascherine_inviate_dalla_cina_all_italia-251883320%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I251578299-C12-P18-S2.3-T1)Quote"The official version with the first releases said at the beginning that it dealt with masks and respirators confiscated, talking about material stolen from Czech companies by unscrupulous criminals who wanted to sell them at higher cost on the international market, challenging the strict limits on medical exports imposed in Czechia as elsewhere by the emergency ". But then there appeared photos and videos shown by Cervinka and the democratic and pro-European NGOs, who made it clear the bad truth. On board of police trucks there were boxes with the Chinese and Italian flags, and written in Italian and Mandarin in which the Beijing authorities launched greetings, encouragement and desire for help to Italy.
they say: true friends are seen in times of need... it looks like that is true also for foes
it looks like we should kick a few countries off EU
Few days back a seller offered masks to CZ Ministry of Health for an unusually high price, stocked in CZ. Ministry declined and informed police.
Police seized the complete stock of 680k masks according to the current "CZ law in state of emergency" and the Ministry paid the seller the usual price.
Police investigated the case and found out 101k masks from that stock were a donation from the Red Cross of Qingtian City of China's Zhejiang province to Chinese expatriates in Italy.
CZ and Zhejiang province is organizing the replacement.
http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm (http://www.china.org.cn/world/2020-03/21/content_75842056.htm)
Edit: typos
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.
What makes the West correct?
To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel. When the threat was far, laught and without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.
Here,this is the video of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.
https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)
You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.
What makes the West correct?
To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel. When the threat was far, laught and without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.
Here,this is the video of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.
https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)
You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.
@not1xor1: plz be so kind and stop writing BULLSHIT.
Read again below, there is the link to the China's/CZ's statement on it.
Btw, the masks were not intended for Italian people..
..The Czechia and Slovakia have special regulation in power currently, and for example in Czechia for spreading misleading information you may serve for 8 years behind bars..
OK thanks... that seems more believable... it looks like the newspaper has been fooled by the Czech activist - he may have been in good faith too - so it is likely just another misunderstanding in this messy situation
Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.
Western doctors are saying masks do nothing unless you are already infected. But these Chinese doctors all are wearing masks, most of them cheapo surgical masks, not P95's.
What makes the West correct?
To make like Spiriman: Jesus Candel. When the threat was far, laught and without giving importance because the covid is seemd to the "cold" (no flu) . When the plague arrived and Spiriman is in the 1st frontline.
The balls put him by tie. And he began to scream,cry,gasp by youtube and TV about of dangerousnes of the covid. Furthermore, he had info about their italian mates.
Here,this is the video of the Joan Planas that teardown to hypocrit of Jesus Candel.
https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE (https://youtu.be/UxlwLaGHxQE)
You do realise that this makes no sense to anybody, don't you. Not the content, the language. I literally cannot even guess what you're trying to say. Are you using Google translate or something similar to post your messages? It just comes out as word salad.
I think it's clear enough. Go exercise your pattern matching a little bit and you'll be able to make sense of it. Yes, he's probably using Google translate, from Spanish, I guess.
Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.
Japan didn't manage that not so badly after all
..The Czechia and Slovakia have special regulation in power currently, and for example in Czechia for spreading misleading information you may serve for 8 years behind bars..
OK thanks... that seems more believable... it looks like the newspaper has been fooled by the Czech activist - he may have been in good faith too - so it is likely just another misunderstanding in this messy situation
Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.
it has been the same here with politicians who, just to oppose the government continuously changed their position:
- "stricter rules" (they meant a nonsensical quarantine just for Chinese children in January),
- "it is just a cold", after the government started to put some restrictions,
- a few days later some politicians of the same party asked for much stricter quarantine rules, others for a stop to quarantine...
they are just crazy... in all this madness they are just able to think about propaganda
the reality is that nobody knew anything about this virus, many of WHO initial assumptions have failed and most countries in the world never had to face a similar situation
Spiriman, Jesus Candel, is apparently of some notoriety in his region, and set a bad example by laughing off the threat when it was far, only to break down and whine and cry out on all channels when the strike hit close to home. He has his balls tied in a knot, if I got the idiom translated correctly.
it has been the same here with politicians who, just to oppose the government continuously changed their position:
- "stricter rules" (they meant a nonsensical quarantine just for Chinese children in January),
- "it is just a cold", after the government started to put some restrictions,
- a few days later some politicians of the same party asked for much stricter quarantine rules, others for a stop to quarantine...
they are just crazy... in all this madness they are just able to think about propaganda
the reality is that nobody knew anything about this virus, many of WHO initial assumptions have failed and most countries in the world never had to face a similar situation
To wear or not to wear - that is the question.
You may observe the numbers in Czechia and Slovakia with the hardest measures in EU, recalled ~10d back. They say they are leading in EU.
Wearing the face mask outside your home in CZ is mandatory, in SK required (and all wear it), it runs that way for at least a weak already, afaik.
You cannot source the off the shelf masks for the entire population today. People do DIY ones, it became a national hobby.
Those mask protect people around you from the droplets you are breathing OUT. Even with a simple textile-DIY-one it is expected at least 30% effectiveness of the FFP3 one (some say 90%). That is a pretty good number provided the masks are worn by everybody. The social distancing is required as well.
Below a shot of the new Slovakian government appointed today :)
Below a shot of the new Slovakian government appointed today :)It makes me wonder which part of the dress of the lady in the middle is now missing. :-DD
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/?action=dlattach;attach=953694;image)
FWIW, I've pretty much stopped following this thread, but I thought I'd jump in and provide some of the latest WHO data for the US. Attached is my Excel graph of total deaths as well as new deaths each day.That's good news, but there's no need for complacency. There will be a lag between people contracting the virus, falling ill and dying. I hope the number of deaths fall in the US, but it isn't my expectation.
The blue bars are total deaths to date, and the yellow are the new deaths each day. Apparently CDC's numbers are higher (for whatever reason...I'm thinking WHO might be a day behind CDC or something) but I thought I'd stick with WHO to make them comparable to the rest of the world.
For the TL;DR crowd, basically the number of new deaths in the US has been pretty flat at between 40 and 50 each day for the last 4 days. I also adjusted the vertical scale to highlight that it's all a matter of perspective. And to allow for the inevitable increase.
FWIW, I've pretty much stopped following this thread, but I thought I'd jump in and provide some of the latest WHO data for the US. Attached is my Excel graph of total deaths as well as new deaths each day.That's good news, but there's no need for complacency. There will be a lag between people contracting the virus, falling ill and dying. I hope the number of deaths fall in the US, but it isn't my expectation.
The blue bars are total deaths to date, and the yellow are the new deaths each day. Apparently CDC's numbers are higher (for whatever reason...I'm thinking WHO might be a day behind CDC or something) but I thought I'd stick with WHO to make them comparable to the rest of the world.
For the TL;DR crowd, basically the number of new deaths in the US has been pretty flat at between 40 and 50 each day for the last 4 days. I also adjusted the vertical scale to highlight that it's all a matter of perspective. And to allow for the inevitable increase.
Constructive feedback: please choose a more sensible scale for the Y-axis and PNG format, is more suitable for graphs, than JPG.
The death count will not fall while the case count rises. Experience has shown that.Death count falling implies zombie apocalypse.
NOOOO Sal! Don't use Tomas' work! He's not a mathematician; there's a massive fundamental flaw with his blog post. He misused posterior/prior probabilities in it. In the part where he estimates 800 actual cases by the time of 1st death, he uses a 1% probability for the death.
But he should be using Bayes to incorporate the info that the person had died (in other words, a dead person is more likely to have come from a high mortality demographic than a 1% demographic). It's the same mistake that was infamously made in the OJ Simpson case.
The way I see it, in this case it's just the use of Bayes' theorem to estimate conditional probability.
QuoteNOOOO Sal! Don't use Tomas' work! He's not a mathematician; there's a massive fundamental flaw with his blog post. He misused posterior/prior probabilities in it.
I get a feeling of fear whenever I hear Bayesian statistics mentioned. There's nothing wrong with Bayesian statistics, if and only if, it is in the hands of a competent trained statistician. In the hands of others who don't properly understand it...
The Code Life Ventilator Challenge is a 2-week sprint to collect the best ideas from anywhere in the world to create or design life-saving ventilators. It’s a joint initiative between the Montreal General Hospital Foundation and the RI-MUHC.
Worse, because he is urgency doctor from Granada and he has a lot information about of Italian situation. Futhermore, he said that the italian public healthcare is less quality than the spanish public healthcare when Italy was 1000 deaths.
FWIW, I've pretty much stopped following this thread, but I thought I'd jump in and provide some of the latest WHO data for the US. Attached is my Excel graph of total deaths as well as new deaths each day.
The blue bars are total deaths to date, and the yellow are the new deaths each day. Apparently CDC's numbers are higher (for whatever reason...I'm thinking WHO might be a day behind CDC or something) but I thought I'd stick with WHO to make them comparable to the rest of the world.
For the TL;DR crowd, basically the number of new deaths in the US has been pretty flat at between 40 and 50 each day for the last 4 days. I also adjusted the vertical scale to highlight that it's all a matter of perspective. And to allow for the inevitable increase.
So why are there no masks in the west but in China there are? Because we didn't react on time and waited until stocks were depleted. Western politicians, all of them, were simply busy discussing it all or playing it down while they should have been paying attention and acting and preparing at the time.Also Chinese are already commonly wearing masks even when there is no immediate threat.
Bad news. After 3 days of zero domestic cases in China mainland, today Chinese CDC reported one new case related to an imported case in Guangzhou. It's still too early to see whether there will be a new wave of infection, but let's hope not.
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of controlDeath toll could still look like completely different in US vs Italy.
in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control
in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
So why are there no masks in the west but in China there are? Because we didn't react on time and waited until stocks were depleted. Western politicians, all of them, were simply busy discussing it all or playing it down while they should have been paying attention and acting and preparing at the time.Also Chinese are already commonly wearing masks even when there is no immediate threat.
Go to a touristic attraction in China in normal times, you'll see 25% of people wearing masks. They're also used in polluted cities.
So there's already rolling supplies and stock for daily use.
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.
Bad news. After 3 days of zero domestic cases in China mainland, today Chinese CDC reported one new case related to an imported case in Guangzhou. It's still too early to see whether there will be a new wave of infection, but let's hope not.The HK students who fled home from Europe's schools and universities before HK's 17th March deadline for new arrivals to need quarantine have brought new cases to HK. We have a friend's son staying with us right now because his school was shut by the UK government last Friday, but he isn't flying home to HK until next Friday. He'll have to undergo some form of quarantine when he gets home.
Yesterday I saw NY governor M. Cuomo during the briefing (CNN). His speech was fantastic. No cheap :bullshit: or political marketing. If I were citizen of NY I would be happy to have him there.The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.It's disgusting how many politicians worldwide are trying to monetize this by putting themselves into the spotlights. As always they think science and action is secondary to ideology, demagoguery and words. Maintaining their political existence is the primary concern, always.
Don't base your opinion of a political leader on one speech or appearance.
The effectiveness of face-masks is nothing like as simple as you make it sound. What you say is not untrue but it is incomplete. FFP face-masks filter particles measured in micro-meters. The covid virus is measured in nano-meters.
- Are they [facemasks] effective? Of course they are and even more so when grading goes up. There is a reason why they protect you from asbestos fibers or toxic dust. So they will protect your from infected particles or droplets.
If you isolate with your family and keep distance from other people and you strictly abide by it, then a mask is of limited use.Yes. Exceptional hygiene, social distancing and isolation are THE effective measures. Domestic mask use is (I believe) more likely to compromise those measures than enhance them. Many will end up walking around wearing masks for hours at a time, carrying virus laden droplets, infecting people who might otherwise be spared.
As I've said, I had 10 FFP3's and came to the conclusion they're less useful to me but not to exposed health workers who may be within inches of Covid-19 patients' mouth or nose, hundreds of times a day.Sincerely, thank you. Without adequate supplies of the right PPE hospitals become a significant _source_ of transmission. The UK is in a decidedly worse position than in the past, due to cost cutting policies driving the closure of small 'cottage' hospitals within local communities. Medical services, health care professionals and their patients have been consolidated into much larger populations within city based, so called 'super-hospitals.' Population density is the BIG transmission risk - one of the few things that is clear in the numbers being released.
So why are there no masks in the west but in China there are? Because we didn't react on time and waited until stocks were depleted. Western politicians, all of them, were simply busy discussing it all or playing it down while they should have been paying attention and acting and preparing at the time.Can't say what happens in other states but in the UK the press ensure the politicians are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Subsequent to the bird-flu scare of 2008 the press took great delight in pointing out the cost of the stockpiled vaccines and medical supplies that went out of date.
You can say that masks are not effective until cows come home. However everyone in medcare and services are wearing them. Guess they are all dumb, is that right?
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation. She especially highlights how the actions have happened (again, in past tense) at correct times, because the epidemic "was" here later compared to many other countries, such as Italy, it's OK to react later, as well. What she completely misses is that you should react comparatively earlier than Italy did. Yes, the government not only thinks it's OK to repeat the process seen in Italy; they don't fear saying it out loud!
The government has started talking about the whole crisis in past tense, and are mostly concerned about helping the economy to recover.
The schools have been partially reopened (for all 1st to 3rd graders); the teachers are terrified of such change. Despite starting the actions too late, last three days have been all about stopping the gradual increase of actions, and actually lifting some.
The trade union leader has hinted blackmailing for a pay increase of 10% in order to keep the nurses working. Of course, at such a time, such blackmailing is not tolerated anywhere; apparently we Finns are so forgiving that everybody just decided not to react to such comment at all. We hope she gets into her senses before it's too late. In such war-like conditions, blackmailing your owns and working against the health of the others easily costs your life.
You can say that masks are not effective until cows come home. However everyone in medcare and services are wearing them. Guess they are all dumb, is that right?
Right?
Related:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-nurses-masks-covid19-swabs-exposure-1.5505406 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-nurses-masks-covid19-swabs-exposure-1.5505406)
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.
The political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.
I'd take Siwastajas political views with a pinch.. no with a pint of salt. :-DDThe political situation in Finland is critical. Suddenly, the government has practically claimed victory, and the prime minister Sanna Marin is giving political interviews aimed at their voters, the main content is how well they handled (yes, in past tense!) the situation.
Uh oh.... That is a very bad sign...
Didn't you guys just announce 103 new cases today?
At 626 total, that's a 15+% increase in one day.
Sure, let's lift restrictions, this thing is over. :palm:
Well handled, there, gov't!
Lots of things could have been done differently with a hindsight
He says the Italian government lagged at first. It was "lazy in the beginning... too much politics in Italy."
"There was a proposal to isolate people coming from the epicenter, coming from China," he said. "Then it became seen as racist, but they were people coming from the outbreak." That, he said, led to the current devastating situation.
Speaking of Italian decision making:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/QuoteHe says the Italian government lagged at first. It was "lazy in the beginning... too much politics in Italy."
"There was a proposal to isolate people coming from the epicenter, coming from China," he said. "Then it became seen as racist, but they were people coming from the outbreak." That, he said, led to the current devastating situation.
For the Finnish people, it has already become a tradition to be on the top of the World Happiness Record, it's considered important as a part of our public image. This is part of the "what does the elephant think of me?" mindset. Of course, such studies measure more the mindset of the people answerring to the questions, than actual reality, which is quite average.
For the Finnish people, it has already become a tradition to be on the top of the World Happiness Record, it's considered important as a part of our public image. This is part of the "what does the elephant think of me?" mindset. Of course, such studies measure more the mindset of the people answerring to the questions, than actual reality, which is quite average.
As "happiness" is entirely subjective, how can there be an "actual reality"? You mean, "I am miserable, therefore it (and everybody else) is wrong".
Welcome to the grumpy old men's club, the coffee's in the corner, beer's in the fridge, the "there's a small boy on the grass" alarm button is on the south wall. For god's sake don't sit in George's chair, we're still trying to get bits of Harri out of the log chipper.
(Attachment Link)
As "happiness" is entirely subjective, how can there be an "actual reality"? You mean, "I am miserable, therefore it (and everybody else) is wrong".
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control
in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
Years ago I had a buddy who was a PSYCH professor at a university. And he'd always tell me his little "gems of truth" about human behavior that were very well known in the world of psychology, but nobody really talked about because people might get offended.
But the one that he'd often repeat whenever we discussed big issues like this is this:
"People believe what they want to believe. Facts are totally irrelevant". ..
For the Finnish people, it has already become a tradition to be on the top of the World Happiness Record, it's considered important as a part of our public image. This is part of the "what does the elephant think of me?" mindset. Of course, such studies measure more the mindset of the people answerring to the questions, than actual reality, which is quite average. For some reason, North Korea is missing from the study; I'm sure they would get even better score out of it..
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control
in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
I wish that I could say that you're wrong. I thought that the large number of new cases being reported might be due to previously untested individuals that they were just getting around to testing but even after more than a week of large scale testing, the new case number is staying high so most of them probably really are newly infected individuals.
Thanks to the irresponsible students and others that continue to party like it's 1999 this is is going to sweep through the US like a wildfire.
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?
Sure we can take some temporary measures to go through this, but what in the long run? Many of us are saying we are unprepared, which is true. But what exactly being fully prepared would entail?
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data?
I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world??
As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201.
Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot.
The data from the following preliminary studies agrees with my own empirical evidence and analysis graphs (the trends in recovered and deaths track closely) which you probably would dismiss anyway since I'm just some guy on the internet. :)
Instead, here are some data points from actual published papers by real doctors and scientists....
The Wang et al study (an admittedly small study of only 138 cases) suggests:
The median durations from first symptoms to dyspnea, hospital admission, and ARDS were 5 days (interquartile range 1-10), 7 days (IQR, 4-8), and 8 days (IQR, 6-12), respectively
The median time from onset of symptoms to ICU admission (not just hospital admission) is 10 days (IQR 6-12)
For those discharged from hospital, the hospital stay was a median of 10 days with an IQR of 7-14 (vs 12 days median 12.8 mean duration in the Guan study of 1099 cases, so reasonably close agreement on hospital stay to discharge)
The earlier CNHC study (preliminary data from 17 early cases) suggests that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days
The Lan study where they were looking to see how long patients still tested positive after meeting the criteria for hospital release or lifting of quarantine, the patients were initially considered "recovered" after 12-32 days, though it does not specify a median or IQR.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R)
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452)
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be".
And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe.
As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200.
The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation.
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control
in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
I wish that I could say that you're wrong. I thought that the large number of new cases being reported might be due to previously untested individuals that they were just getting around to testing but even after more than a week of large scale testing, the new case number is staying high so most of them probably really are newly infected individuals.
I would argue that the USA has not even begun what I would call "large scale testing." The best data I can find shows that they had only tested 100,000 people by Friday, in total, across the entire country so far! That is what, about a 15-20% positive rate after testing only about one in every 3300 of the population? They haven't really even begun to test everyone that should be tested, those with possible symptoms or known exposure. There are likely hundreds of thousands more people in the US infected already by this point, and sadly the stated control method is to play "Whack-A-Mole." :palm:
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..
Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe",
Coronavirus, the Tyrolean village that infected half of Europe
Since February, more than a thousand northern European tourists have become infected in Ischgl. But only now the village has been declared a red zone. «Delays not to compromise the ski season»
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..
For example China 40y back - even the number of infected and fatalities would had been 100x higher than today nobody would know outside China..
Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe", and the Eastern Bloc - while hiding the real numbers there - happily finger pointing the "low level of healthcare in the West".
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..
Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe",
You have got to be kidding.
Are you this blind?
Do you have any idea of what is going on in Italy and Spain right now?
The hospitals of entire regions are saturated.
Doctors and nurses are getting infected and are dying.
The army had to carry away the coffins for incineration to take place in other provinces.
And you are still talking about a "strong flu"?
On February 24, a few days after the beginning of the epidemic, the direction of the "Palazzolo-Don Gnocchi Institute", a piece of history of health and care in Milan, convenes a plenary meeting for workers. Three hundred doctors, nurses and operators massed in a room, some remain outside because they want to understand. They all expect a single message: more than 700 patients are hosted at the "Don Gnocchi", almost all elderly, sick and frail, and therefore the workers imagine that the structure will be "armored" to prevent the coronavirus from entering the wards, because everyone is they realize that if this happened it would be a massacre (the one that took place and Corriere has already told about the rest homes in Mediglia, Affori, or the «Virgilio Ferrari» municipal at Corvetto). Instead, the opposite happens: the management forbids all staff to wear masks, "so as not to create panic and pressure on patients and relatives", with veiled threats of disciplinary appeal for those who will use protections. "It seems incredible - many nurses say today, and their messages are converging - but they have expressly" forbidden "us to protect our patients, and we too".
And no hospitals being completely overrun with patients as well? :palm:If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.And no hospitals being completely overrun with patients as well? :palm:If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
The western world would have been thrown back a lot. Also due to having more manufacturing versus office jobs which can be done from home nowadays.
Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time. wrong
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time. wrong first ELISA test 1971, HPLC, MS-GC, PAGE all common laboratory equipment in 1980
No pneumonia/flu test at that time. wrong
No flu vaccination at that time. wrong - flu vaccines were available in the 1940s!
No internet at that time. right
No high-tech ventilators at that time. wrong
No CT scans and MRI at that time. wrong - first commercial CAT scanners 1972, first commercial MRI scanner 1980
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time. wrong
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time. wrong
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax. right
No personal computers at that time. wrong
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against commond cold"].. right
it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of controlDeath toll could still look like completely different in US vs Italy.
in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000
Italy has probably half million or more mild cases not tested whereas US testing is bit more up to date currently.
Age demographics has also huge difference for outcome: spread the virus to people mostly under 60 vs infect also everyone over 70.
To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then, DNA sequencing was in its infancy, vaccines took much longer to develop, than they do today and personal computers were expensive and uncommon; I wasn't born until 1982 and I remember receptionists using typewriters, when I was a child: my mum used to have one and I had a toy one.Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time. wrong
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time. wrong first ELISA test 1971, HPLC, MS-GC, PAGE all common laboratory equipment in 1980
No pneumonia/flu test at that time. wrong
No flu vaccination at that time. wrong - flu vaccines were available in the 1940s!
No internet at that time. right
No high-tech ventilators at that time. wrong
No CT scans and MRI at that time. wrong - first commercial CAT scanners 1972, first commercial MRI scanner 1980
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time. wrong
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time. wrong
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax. right
No personal computers at that time. wrong
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against commond cold"].. right
3 out of 12. You have failed your history of technology exam.
The effectiveness of face-masks is nothing like as simple as you make it sound. What you say is not untrue but it is incomplete. FFP face-masks filter particles measured in micro-meters. The covid virus is measured in nano-meters.[/list]
- Are they [facemasks] effective? Of course they are and even more so when grading goes up. There is a reason why they protect you from asbestos fibers or toxic dust. So they will protect your from infected particles or droplets.
I'd take Siwastajas political views with a pinch.. no with a pint of salt. :-DD
Lots of things could have been done differently with a hindsight but so far the response in here hasn't been any worse than most of the countries with the Korea and Singapore being notable differences. China maybe also.
To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then,Good old X-ray is equally capable in confirming pneumonia.
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..
To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then,Good old X-ray is equally capable in confirming pneumonia.
We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.If that where true then explain how the Spanish flu made so many casualties world wide in 1918/1919. Or how the Blach Death spread all across Europe in the 1300's.
To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then, DNA sequencing was in its infancy, vaccines took much longer to develop, than they do today and personal computers were expensive and uncommon; I wasn't born until 1982 and I remember receptionists using typewriters, when I was a child: my mum used to have one and I had a toy one.Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time. wrong
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time. wrong first ELISA test 1971, HPLC, MS-GC, PAGE all common laboratory equipment in 1980
No pneumonia/flu test at that time. wrong
No flu vaccination at that time. wrong - flu vaccines were available in the 1940s!
No internet at that time. right
No high-tech ventilators at that time. wrong
No CT scans and MRI at that time. wrong - first commercial CAT scanners 1972, first commercial MRI scanner 1980
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time. wrong
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time. wrong
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax. right
No personal computers at that time. wrong
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against commond cold"].. right
3 out of 12. You have failed your history of technology exam.
Speaking of Italian decision making:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/QuoteHe says the Italian government lagged at first. It was "lazy in the beginning... too much politics in Italy."
"There was a proposal to isolate people coming from the epicenter, coming from China," he said. "Then it became seen as racist, but they were people coming from the outbreak." That, he said, led to the current devastating situation.
:-DD
It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genomesee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy)
It looks like the "political correctness" is the major killer in this pandemic..
Years ago I had a buddy who was a PSYCH professor at a university. And he'd always tell me his little "gems of truth" about human behavior that were very well known in the world of psychology, but nobody really talked about because people might get offended.
drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be".
And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe.
As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200.
The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation.
Really, the saddest part for me was about 3 weeks ago when the spread started in Italy so forcefully, where I suddenly realized how trivial it would be for any major government or reasonably-well funded private entity to engineer and release a targeted virus to essentially wipe out some genetically related group. :'(
drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data? I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world??
As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201.
Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot.
Wow! And I thought Canadian Health Authority representative was an idiot when he said "when you see Chinese people on the strret shake their hand"
https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist (https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist)
We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.If that where true then explain how the Spanish flu made so many casualties world wide in 1918/1919. Or how the Blach Death spread all across Europe in the 1300's.
On the upside: I think we'll see a huge baby boom after 9 months from now.
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.
But in the end it all comes down to people moving and contacting eachother. That is the bottom line.We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.If that where true then explain how the Spanish flu made so many casualties world wide in 1918/1919. Or how the Blach Death spread all across Europe in the 1300's.
On the upside: I think we'll see a huge baby boom after 9 months from now.
That one's easy if you learned any history. The last year of World War 1. Millions of international troop movements in both directions both during and after the war was won. In the case of American troops, on crowded ships. Never mind that there were many people dying of a typhus epidemic, an encephalitis epidemic, famine, and weapons of war at the same time. It may not be true of modern military, but historically more troops died of disease than combat.
As for the Black Death, that's pretty well documented if you only bother to look.
In Italy the trending is growth of 10x over 14 days, and appears to be stable at this rate - 17% per day. Measures take ~14 days to be effective (based on data from China - they started lockdown at 2k cases and finished at 80k.)
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.
I'd rather say little problem with antibiotic resistant bacteria
If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.
If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..
Yeah.
We may be better equipped these days, but the worldwide movement of people has literally exploded, and I'm not going to teach you that virus spreading is by nature exponential. Current technology certainly helps mitigate things in the current context, but I'd venture it doesn't make up for the (unreasonable) movement of people we have now.
Sure, in 1980 the covid would have been much more deadly as it is today (except you would be treated in the hospitals of Dr. Cerebus).
My original post has been ripped apart by few and then commented out by experts like by Dr. Cerebus who is using all today's technologies in all his hospitals around the World since 1980.. :P
New Zealand to enter full lockdown within 48 hours.That isn't a lockdown, just progressive closures similar/identical to those being taken elsewhere (Australia, UK, etc). When you can't move freely, thats lockdown.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level)
Many NZers have been pleading with the government to move hard and fast.
Fortunately they have listened.
We can live through the economic impact, we do not want a high death toll to go with it.
drussel, where do you get your numbers from? CDC doesn't report on weekends, and WHO's data is from Friday the 20th. And both of those agree on a figure of 15k.
I think it's important to choose a single and arguably reliable source rather than grabbing data from whatever pops up. I may be wrong, but in the US I would assume the final authority is the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and I assume they forward that to WHO as official data, which is why WHO data seems to lag 1 day behind.
New Zealand to enter full lockdown within 48 hours.The lads here are murmuring about grabbing their rifles and going bush for a week or two hunting.....well at least until their tucker runs out. Tempted to tag along. :-\
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120495548/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-to-give-update-on-coronavirus-alert-level)
Many NZers have been pleading with the government to move hard and fast.
Fortunately they have listened.
We can live through the economic impact, we do not want a high death toll to go with it.
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.
I'd rather say little problem with antibiotic resistant bacteria
As is often the way with these things those in know were making quite a lot of fuss about it back then. MRSA had been identified as a problem in the sixties and by around 1980 knowledge of increasing multi-drug resistance in bacteria was a commonplace among the scientific and medical community.
[...]
drussel, where do you get your numbers from? CDC doesn't report on weekends, and WHO's data is from Friday the 20th. And both of those agree on a figure of 15k.
I think it's important to choose a single and arguably reliable source rather than grabbing data from whatever pops up. I may be wrong, but in the US I would assume the final authority is the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and I assume they forward that to WHO as official data, which is why WHO data seems to lag 1 day behind.
I have been getting my latest-case data from what is generally considered the most authoritative worldwide source, the CSSE aggregation page at Johns Hopkins University....
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
You can download their daily aggregate data in .CSV format via their github page:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
I will admit right now that I was incorrect in my previous post on the number of new US cases that have been logged so far today. I had inadvertently added the last two rows from New York and New Jersey twice (which I assume were essentially the results from yesterday's tests,) so my numbers were skewed up 4500+ cases....
The number added today in the US is "only" more like 9000 new cases, not the 13-something thousand that I thought it was when I quickly saw the inaccurate totals at the bottom of my spreadsheet when I hastily posted that comment before running out the door to one remaining jobsite, without actually fully importing the latest datasets...
Sorry... My bad...
My working number now stands at 33,276 confirmed infected in the USA.
I'm sure the CDC will update their official numbers to reflect these latest state-by-state disclosures at some point in the next 24-72 hours or so.
What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
Or German authorities don't report people in intensive care because of privacy laws or sumthing?
(bit similar in here, they don't publish every detail including past sexual history of the coronavirus fatalities...)
What's the deal with Germany?I think Germany does a lot more testing of people with mild symptoms.
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.
JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.
No, it won't because every country has a different level of testing which also changes over time. In the NL for example you see 23 cases per death but in Germany you see the number of cases per death sliding down from >300 cases per death to 234 cases per death currently. And the areas in the NL and Germany with lots of infections are next to eachother (the virus got spread due to spring carnaval). IOW: the number of cases tells you absolutely nothing about how the virus is spreading.JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.
It will pretty much looks the same as cases, just transposed 2 orders of magnitude.
JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.
It will pretty much looks the same as cases, just transposed 2 orders of magnitude.
Deaths per country - that could be tricky to report, see below countries with >1000 confirmed and <0.5% (an quick example only)..
Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
:phew:
The problem with this virus is the speed at which it spreads, so heath care systems can't cope.Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
:phew:
Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report (https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html)).
Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
:phew:
Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report (https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html)).
Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
Sure, the assumption with that naive model is Germany masters the "flattening the curve".The problem with this virus is the speed at which it spreads, so heath care systems can't cope.Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
:phew:
Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report (https://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/inf_dis_Germany/influenza/summary_2018-19.html)).
Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820
I agree with you, but they were not as wide spread and causing as many problems and deaths as they do now... and worldwide
We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F)
https://www.caducee.net/actualite-medicale/14792/un-collectif-de-professionnels-de-sante-saisit-la-cour-de-justice-de-la-republique-contre-agnes-buzyn-et-edouard-philippe.html (https://www.caducee.net/actualite-medicale/14792/un-collectif-de-professionnels-de-sante-saisit-la-cour-de-justice-de-la-republique-contre-agnes-buzyn-et-edouard-philippe.html)
Here, people are rather hot. Three days ago , have been detained a man for threating to 1 Minister Pedro Sanchez( alias:"Falconetti") by the covid management.
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.europapress.es%2Fmurcia%2Fnoticia-detenido-joven-difundir-video-amenazas-pedro-sanchez-gestion-crisis-coronavirus-20200320115932.html (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.europapress.es%2Fmurcia%2Fnoticia-detenido-joven-difundir-video-amenazas-pedro-sanchez-gestion-crisis-coronavirus-20200320115932.html)
After the quarantine, maybe could have a popular uprising.
We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F)
I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?
We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F)
I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?
let's hope the next days will confirm the trend and that the rest of the world will asap experience a similar trend
I wonder whether the Corona Extra will have to change names when the crisis is over...
I wonder whether the Corona Extra will have to change names when the crisis is over...
I hope not! :)
It is actually a very good beer with a slice of lime, on a hot day, working on a classic car under a shade tree...
Yes, we should all wear masks, but NOT for selfprotection, but to protect everyone around us if we were infected. But: We should wear selfmade masks, because the good masks, suitable for selfprotection are now needed by the doctors.Exactly. Even something as simple as a winter scarf (the thick woolly kind, that will trap moisture and droplets in exhalations) will help a lot, for those who dislike the idea of wearing a mask.
Even something as simple as a winter scarf (the thick woolly kind, that will trap moisture and droplets in exhalations) will help a lot, for those who dislike the idea of wearing a mask.Yes, this is also said in the linked podcast.
I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country cases deaths
Italy 67-68k 6.3-6.4k
US 42-48k 500-550
Spain 31-34k 2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)
I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country cases deaths
Italy 67-68k 6.3-6.4k
US 42-48k 500-550
Spain 31-34k 2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)
I was not much wrong (apart Italy - let's hope it is a trend rather than just ordinary fluctuations)
current (12 hours after forecast) figures are:
country cases deaths
Italy 64k (63,927) 6.1k (6,077)
US 42k (41,708) 573
Spain 33k (33,089) 2.2k (2,207)
I hope my weekly forecast about US will be wrong (of course I hope less cases and deaths than what I wrote)
Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.
When the virus enters the body it needs time to spread and during that time the human body starts reacting, but it also needs time to produce virus killing antibodies.
So they assume that the immune response may be effective when the initial infection enters nose or mouth. If the initial infection happens inside the lungs (after taking a deep breath of virus aerosol), that person may be lost. Today on German TV they showed a 41 year old strong man who had been skiiing in Austria and is now close to death. My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.
In Germany about 1 of 1000 is infected, assuming a moderate factor two or three above the official numbers of those tested positive. So, when you meet 10 people chances are 1 : 100 that you are at risk. This risk is integrated over the next months and over all members of a family. So we should think a lot before meeting somebody else.
Regards, Dieter
My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.
Seen reports from UK researches today that in 30% cases people reported loss of smell and loss of taste.
They are looking now whether to accept this as an early warning for even non-symptomatic people and add to self-isolation rules.
Seen reports from UK researches today that in 30% cases people reported loss of smell and loss of taste.
They are looking now whether to accept this as an early warning for even non-symptomatic people and add to self-isolation rules.
No reason for alarm or concern,
people with 'loss of smell and loss of taste' have been the the junk food industry's best customers for decades :clap:
We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F)
I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?
Yes, the "Corona Parties" have been happening, and I've also heard some stories of idiot pranksters coughing on elderly people and shouting "Corona, Corona". Crisis brings out the best and the worst of people at the same time...
Edit: Found the actual quote:QuoteChinese Red Cross Vice President Sun Shuopeng warned Italians that they were risking lives by not adhering to the novel coronavirus lockdown. He made the comments after visiting Milan in the hardest-hit region of Italy, which has recorded 41,035 cases and 3,405 deaths. “Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by COVID-19, the lockdown measures are very lax,” the veteran of the Wuhan epidemic fight said Thursday. “I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masks.” Sun warned that the resistance to the lockdown will prove deadly. “I don’t know what people here are thinking. We really have to stop our usual economic activities and our usual human interactions. We have to stay at home and make every effort to save lives. It is worth putting every cost we have into saving lives.”
The US looks to me like it is accelerating, rather than flattening out...
I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?Quite possibly both. It can be true yet so rare that it for all intents and purposes doesn't happen.
Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.
Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.
Damn, you are right, I lost a zero somewhere.Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.
Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.
I think you dropped a digit. At a 10 day stay, each bed can do 36 cases per year. Capacity is 30,000 * 36 = 1,080,000 cases requiring ICU care per year.
Or look at it another way, with 30,000 beds, and the average stay is 10 days, then peak load is 30,000/10 = 3,000 new cases requiring ICU per day. As a check that gives 3000 * 365 = 1,095,000 ICU cases per year.
So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.
...Damn, you are right, I lost a zero somewhere.
So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.
Makes it just more unrealistic scenario even if my ballpark numbers would be way off.
Instead of looking for "magic drug", waiting on Santa Claus with a bag with billions of face masks, and building millions of new ICUs with ventilators made by GM, simply follow the advice which works well - always wear a DIY mask when outside your home, stay at home, do social distancing, wash your hands.
Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.
And your current ICUs will stay half empty.
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?Over here nobody wears a mask but most people do keep a distance. Keeping hands clean is also important. The virus can stay alive for many hours (assume up to a day) on many surfaces so if you go in a shop then it is very easy the get the virus from the trolley, baskets, doors, cashier's desk, etc. One infected person can easely infect multiple people that way over the course of many hours. All it takes is rubbing your eyes to transfer the virus from/to your hands. Yesterday I went shopping and sanitized my hands before entering the shops and after leaving the shops.
Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.I found the episode now, it was in episode 15 already. But actually he said, "this is just an idea, not an explanation"
Ich sage jetzt ganz bewusst nicht Erklärung, sondern ich sage eine Hypothese. Eine Idee, die erklären könnte, warum einige Patienten, obwohl sie sehr jung sind, trotzdem einen schnellen, schweren Verlauf kriegen
I've just returned from shopping. A supermarket 30x60m. Around 50 people there. All wearing face masks. About 20% wearing gloves as well. I spent 14 minutes there. Every half of a minute I heard somebody sneezing or coughing.
Here is a ballpark calculation for you.That's only part of the story. The question is the probability of you catching it from one of them?
LeoI've just returned from shopping. A supermarket 30x60m. Around 50 people there. All wearing face masks. About 20% wearing gloves as well. I spent 14 minutes there. Every half of a minute I heard somebody sneezing or coughing.
Masks are a double edged sword. They only really contribute something when the wearer is infectious and in that case the wearer shouldn't be outside. In all other cases it's a soggy rag which may allow viruses that landed on it to remain viable longer. It's also likely to shift and itch which means people may poke at it and contaminate themselves.Ah, please. The main difficulty with this virus is that people spread it unknowingly because they hardly feel any symptoms and therefore have no urge to stay inside. Or they just have a cold and don't think they contracted the virus. If they were really sick they'd probably be in their beds. So if everyone wears a mask, DIY or other, it's going to help a lot!
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?Funny, I have same mask and is that 3M goggles too?
Leo
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?Funny, I have same mask and is that 3M goggles too?
Leo
..
When I started wearing a mask (but without goggles) two weeks ago most (if not all) people around thought I am an idiot.
Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?
Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.
Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.Ah, please. The main difficulty with this virus is that people spread it unknowingly because they hardly feel any symptoms and therefore have no urge to stay inside. Or they just have a cold and don't think they contracted the virus. If they were really sick they'd probably be in their beds. So if everyone wears a mask, DIY or other, it's going to help a lot!No! Thats very likely not how it works for reasons that were just explained. Masks aren't a magic solution and in the hands of the general public very likely a huge risk. These aren't health professionals nor food professionals. If you don't use personal protection properly there's a very real chance of making things a lot worse. Touch a mask just once and all bets are off.
Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.
Can we make soups out of them? :P
Total daily capacity rose to 110 million from 20 million in February with 3,000 new entrants; China made half of the global output in 2019
Carmakers BYD and SAIC, iPhone assembler Foxconn and oil company Sinopec are among ‘new faces’ in the industry
China's daily output of face masks reached 116 million units as of Saturday, 12 times the figure reported on Feb. 1 as factories of all stripes crank up new production lines to meet a surge in demands, the National Development and Reform Commission said
The biggest public health crisis in two decades has enticed 3,000 newcomers to the industry this year, according to Sina news portal, adding to a field of 4,000 who produced 4.2 billion face masks last year or half the world’s output, according to government data.
Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.
I don't get it. Everybody, especially in the USA, have been using scare tactics to get people moving. Nothing moves people quicker than fear. But this virus has been played down by everyone to the level of "a bad cold" and even with the evidence from Italy and Spain in front of their very eyes, they claim "it cannot happen here, because!".Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.Does it work? That's assuming a fair bit of causality where there may be none. Meanwhile the behaviour of people I referred to has been actually researched by the CDC. If they recommend masks then go ahead but thinking you're doing good while you may be doing a lot of harm isn't what we need right now.
I don't get it. Everybody, especially in the USA, have been using scare tactics to get people moving. Nothing moves people quicker than fear. But this virus has been played down by everyone to the level of "a bad cold" and even with the evidence from Italy and Spain in front of their very eyes, they claim "it cannot happen here, because!".Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.Does it work? That's assuming a fair bit of causality where there may be none. Meanwhile the behaviour of people I referred to has been actually researched by the CDC. If they recommend masks then go ahead but thinking you're doing good while you may be doing a lot of harm isn't what we need right now.
Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.Does it work? That's assuming a fair bit of causality where there may be none. Meanwhile the behaviour of people I referred to has been actually researched by the CDC. If they recommend masks then go ahead but thinking you're doing good while you may be doing a lot of harm isn't what we need right now.
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
Do you have evidence for this assertion or is it just an assumption?
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
Do you have evidence for this assertion or is it just an assumption?
:palm: :palm: :palm:
-> Nigeria records chloroquine poisoning after Trump endorses it for coronavirus treatment (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/africa/chloroquine-trump-nigeria-intl/index.html)
-> Fearing coronavirus, Arizona man dies after taking a form of chloroquine used to treat aquariums (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/health/arizona-coronavirus-chloroquine-death/index.html)
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
Do you have evidence for this assertion or is it just an assumption?
I absolutely do have evidence.
In South Korea, there was no real confinement to speak of - from all witnessing I've got, people were almost living their lives as usual, few shops/companies shut down, and almost everyone with a mask. Meanwhile, we keep saying it doesn't work, yet we had to confine people in a lot stricter way than they ever did in SK, and we still don't know what's going to happen.The reason for any difference should be abundantly clear. Not only do medics know they're actually in close contact with the airborne virus, crucially they're also properly trained and have the discipline to properly implement their training. Meanwhile, the medical industry has huge trouble getting people to adhere to even the most basic instructions. You know what they say about making things idiot proof.
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.
Unfortunately there's a small portion who become gravely ill
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.The point is that medical practitioners know how to use masks properly. The general public does not and that likely causes more harm than good. A mask has a limited useful life, needs to be handled right, disposed right, etc. It is pretty much the same discussion when isolation transformers come into play. If you drill down deeper you'll see that there are a lot of (not so obvious) conditions that need to be met for an isolation transformer to increase safety instead of actually reducing safety.
About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.
The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.
Oh-oh
It seems totally incredible to me now that everyone spent that evening as though it were just like any other. From the railway station came the sound of shunting trains, ringing and rumbling, softened almost into melody by the distance. It all seemed so safe and tranquil...H.G.Wells - War of the Worlds - Jeff Wayne adaption - The Eve of the War | Horsell Common
Around me, the daily routine of life; working, eating, sleeping, was continuing serenely as it had for countless years.
A quote that has haunted me for days.Every fiction can become reality at some point. We got the flip-phones from Star Trek too.QuoteIt seems totally incredible to me now that everyone spent that evening as though it were just like any other. From the railway station came the sound of shunting trains, ringing and rumbling, softened almost into melody by the distance. It all seemed so safe and tranquil...H.G.Wells - War of the Worlds - Jeff Wayne adaption - The Eve of the War | Horsell Common
Around me, the daily routine of life; working, eating, sleeping, was continuing serenely as it had for countless years.
Oh, and if masks don't work, why do all the medical practitioners currently wear one? Explain the conundrum.The point is that medical practitioners know how to use masks properly. The general public does not and that likely causes more harm than good. A mask has a limited useful life, needs to be handled right, disposed right, etc. It is pretty much the same discussion when isolation transformers come into play. If you drill down deeper you'll see that there are a lot of (not so obvious) conditions that need to be met for an isolation transformer to increase safety instead of actually reducing safety.
See these mask wearing guidelines from the WHO:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks)
Quote from the top video 'If you do not have symptoms then don't use a mask because there is no evidence it protects you'.
Oh-oh
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/youtube-to-limit-video-quality-around-the-world-for-a-month (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/youtube-to-limit-video-quality-around-the-world-for-a-month)
Quote from the top video 'If you do not have symptoms then don't use a mask because there is no evidence it protects you'.
The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.That is a misconception. Just read the WHO guidelines again. A mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask. Note that I used the word 'use' and not 'wear'. Wearing is mask is one thing, knowing how to use it effectively is another. IF it served a purpose for everyone to wear a mask then the WHO would have certainly recommended it. Now ofcourse people will chime in and say there aren't enough masks but even the WHO would be clever enough to tell us how to make our own mask from whatever material we have available. But they don't. So there is your answer.
I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple mask do not protect against the virus". All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.
The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.
IF this where true then the WHO would certainly recommend it. See my reply above. I don't get why people keep insisting on denying what the experts who are literally at the front line are saying.I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple mask do not protect against the virus". All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.
The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.
Absolutely. Knowing that most of the viral charge from one person to another comes from droplets AFAIK, so it's very important to at least contain them.
And again, no one said that was a bulletproof solution. But anything that can objectively lower the viral charge people are likely to be exposed to is a good thing, and that can just be the difference between life and death.
I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple mask do not protect against the virus". All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.
The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.
A mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.
Look for X-Ray pictures of people who had their feet on the dashboard of a car while the airbag exploded. Now think again about safety features used the wrong way. Just follow the advice from the experts.QuoteA mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.
For varying values of 'work'. If you wear a mask incorrectly, does it do anything at all? I would suggest it has some effect - it won't be the 'proper' working fully protective effect, but it would surely be better than nothing at all, wouldn't it?
Kind of like if you wear a crash helmet incorrectly it's not going to be as effective as if you did it up properly, but there's a non-zero possibility that it will lessen a bash on your bonce all the same. [OK, not quite analogous because an incorrectly worn helmet might kill you whereas a mask won't, but let's not go down that kind of rabbit hole.]
The research that was posted shows that PPE can and often does lead to more careless behaviour. This is a known issue in the medical field and elsewhere. Your assessment that you cannot make it worse is therefore demonstrably incorrect. Professionals know this and still suffer the issue. Laymen absolutely will too.QuoteA mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.
For varying values of 'work'. If you wear a mask incorrectly, does it do anything at all? I would suggest it has some effect - it won't be the 'proper' working fully protective effect, but it would surely be better than nothing at all, wouldn't it?
Kind of like if you wear a crash helmet incorrectly it's not going to be as effective as if you did it up properly, but there's a non-zero possibility that it will lessen a bash on your bonce all the same. [OK, not quite analogous because an incorrectly worn helmet might kill you whereas a mask won't, but let's not go down that kind of rabbit hole.]
IF this where true then the WHO would certainly recommend it.I wonder what happens with "WHO" after this pandemic finishes..
So now all you have to add is a conspiracy theory?QuoteIF this where true then the WHO would certainly recommend it.I wonder what happens with "WHO" after this pandemic finishes..
In what circumstances would a mask not prevent or significantly reduce "spitting" from someone talking or sneezing?Exactly.
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.I've never ever heard or seen somebody saying those general public face masks can protect you against the virus. In opposite, all say "be aware the simple mask do not protect against the virus". All what CDC or WHO says is true, absolutely. The argument "you need trained medical personnel who can handle masks properly" is perfectly valid for laboratory and medical environment where the personnel is exposed to bacterial or viral infection.An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.
The general public masks (ie DIY) protect the environment around the Wearer from droplets he/she is spreading by coughing and sneezing and talking. Those are his/her droplets with his/her viruses caught by the mask he/she is wearing. That has been explicitly said here many times, afaik.
It may very well, although it may also not as these masks are not designed for this. People tend to touch and adjust masks and someone may spread the virus around more than they would otherwise. The WHO acknowledges this risk when they say "If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly." The Telegraph tells us why. It's a shit source but they make the right point;
In what circumstances would a mask not prevent or significantly reduce "spitting" from someone talking or sneezing?
Why do PHE (and others) worry they may make matters worse?
There are lots of reasons:
They cause people to touch their faces more, making the changes of picking up a bug and transferring it to your body via mouth, nose and eyes more likely.
They know most people will wear them for much longer than a few minutes for which they are designed. How many mask wearers change theirs every five minutes for a clean one? This is a problem because they quickly become damp inside and are therefore an ideal place for viruses to land
There is a risk they can be shared, especially by children.
There is a risk they are not disposed of properly, resulting in viruses being spread further.
And perhaps most important, there is a risk that they distract people from the real problem - that droplets fall on surfaces and are picked up on peoples hands and then passed to their faces. This is the main route for transmission and the only reliable way of breaking it is to keep surfaces and hands clean. Masks just don't help with that.
In Thailand, a factory was found repackaging used face masks as new.
The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has banned a swathe of advertisements for face masks, describing them as “misleading, irresponsible and scaremongering”. It says it is wrong for any advertiser to claim that surgical masks can protect against coronavirus and will take action against any that do.
Are there better masks than surgical masks?
Yes, but these are highly specialist, very expensive and again only work if used to very exacting protocols that even experts often struggle to keep to.
feet on the dashboard of a car while the airbag exploded
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.
Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?The issue is that some people override the recommendations of the WHO and additional evidence presented in favour of their own seat of the pants reasoning.
Nah, forget it. I can see it was a bad move to attempt any discussion in this thread.
So now all you have to add is a conspiracy theory?Gotta make it work somehow. ::)
can and often does lead to more careless behaviour
IF this where true then the WHO would certainly recommend it. See my reply above. I don't get why people keep insisting on denying what the experts who are literally at the front line are saying.
Using a safety device the wrong way. That is the similarity. In one case it is obvious in another it is less so to the untrained eye.Quotefeet on the dashboard of a car while the airbag exploded
Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?
Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?The issue is that some people override the recommendations of the WHO and additional evidence presented in favour of their own seat of the pants reasoning.
Nah, forget it. I can see it was a bad move to attempt any discussion in this thread.
Risk compensation, yes. However, wearing a mask in the current situation isn't necessarily akin to isolating vs going down the pub. If one has to go shopping then the behaviour will be the same during that trip with or without the mask, wouldn't it?If trained medical personnel changes behaviour and somewhat less trained food industry personnel does you can bet your bottom dollar laymen will. It also distracts from the proven important hand hygiene.
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.
OK, I'm sorry about the hyperbolic. Putting your feet on the dashboard only endangers yourself. Using a mask the wrong way endangers not only yourself but others too. So all in all the situations where safety devices are being used wrong aren't 100% similar. Happy now?Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?The issue is that some people override the recommendations of the WHO and additional evidence presented in favour of their own seat of the pants reasoning.
Nah, forget it. I can see it was a bad move to attempt any discussion in this thread.
No, the issue is that totally inappropriate stuff is being passed off as similar. You've pointed out some issues and the Telegraph has been quoted. They're appropriate. Suggesting wearing a mask is like having your legs blown off is not, and just ensures no-one listens to such hyperbolic cobblers.
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.
There's a study that hints (if I'm didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever) - 44% of transmissions gone.
Source: my currently favourite podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8)
Sorry, German language. Maybe Youtube adds an automatic translation.
Risk compensation, yes. However, wearing a mask in the current situation isn't necessarily akin to isolating vs going down the pub. If one has to go shopping then the behaviour will be the same during that trip with or without the mask, wouldn't it?If trained medical personnel changes behaviour and somewhat less trained food industry personnel does you can bet your bottom dollar laymen will. It also distracts from the proven important hand hygiene.
Happy now?
Wearing masks seems to work for the Asian countries.I'm pretty sure it's not the masks they wear but the medicinal properties of the bats they eat. Speculating is fun!
I think that's extrapolating from the wrong situation. A medical person is doing this kind of thing as a job all the time, and the perceived level of risk is quite low to start with so it's easy to be lax. The general public right now, OTOH, are shit-scared and have just had a sci-fi horror dumped on then over a couple of days. Regardless of protection, their perceived level of risk is sky high. A mask will be thought of as a help but not a solution and won't affect the perceived risk much at all, so they're still unlikely to be taking the kind of risk a relaxed professional might do when his mind isn't on the job.It's no extrapolation. Both health and food professionals have been shown by the CDC to often be more lax when it comes to hygiene with protection than without. They know why hygiene is important and that this behaviour change is a thing but it still happens. It's why protection is discouraged unless there's a verifiable advantage or risk.
There's a study that hints (if I didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever) - 44% of transmissions gone.You're assuming a lot. What's the advantage when they're not sneezing or coughing? It's much more likely these patients are spreading it via their hands after touching parts of their body. This is why the WHO is emphasizing hand hygiene. It works both ways!
Source: my currently favourite podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXEst3TFVm8)
Sorry, German language. Maybe Youtube adds an automatic translation.
EDIT: IT does, but the translation is completely unusable gibberish.
On the other hand, wearing masks in public is now mandatory in many places, for example Hong Kong and the Czech Republic. Is WHO telling those countries to change their rules? (Answer: no)Do they need to address each country when their advice differs explicitly? The WHO may not have all the answers but you can be bloody sure their advice is more evidence based than that of most countries.
Here's a good article about the inconsistent and illogical messaging on this subject:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html)
I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo
An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.
- If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
- Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo
In sentence 2 the WHO implies that you are sick and are coughing and/or sneezing regulary.Quote- If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.Sentence 2, from what I said above, seems stupid. Sorry WHO. You don't need to be coughing or sneezing to be potentially infected.
- Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?Spontaneous French kissing would be my guess.
An incorrectly worn mask can increase the risk to the user, its a very apt comparison. Also that helmets are tested to a narrow range of function (direct blows to the head) and face masks are similarly synthetically tested without taking account of real world effects.QuoteA mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.
For varying values of 'work'. If you wear a mask incorrectly, does it do anything at all? I would suggest it has some effect - it won't be the 'proper' working fully protective effect, but it would surely be better than nothing at all, wouldn't it?
Kind of like if you wear a crash helmet incorrectly it's not going to be as effective as if you did it up properly, but there's a non-zero possibility that it will lessen a bash on your bonce all the same. [OK, not quite analogous because an incorrectly worn helmet might kill you whereas a mask won't, but let's not go down that kind of rabbit hole.]
Which is why the advice to sneeze into an cocked elbow is a good public measure, not many people are going to be unconsciously touching that part of their body.I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Well. They're still spitting while talking, virus-laden aerosol exits their mouths. Everybody does, it's inevitable. And everybody coughs now and then, maybe because the throat has become dry while talking. It's known that the virus replicates mainly in the throat during the initial phase of the infection. This is where the main virus load comes from, and this is the main transmission vector before symptoms begin to show. The virus spread in Berlin mainly through clubs. On the dance floor, at the bar. Loud music, you shout into the face of your peer because he/she cannot hear your otherwise - bam.There's a study that hints (if I didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever) - 44% of transmissions gone.You're assuming a lot. What's the advantage when they're not sneezing or coughing? It's much more likely these patients are spreading it via their hands after touching parts of their body. This is why the WHO is emphasizing hand hygiene. It works both ways!
Well. They're still spitting while talking, virus-laden aerosol exits their mouths. Everybody does, it's inevitable. And everybody coughs now and then, maybe because the throat has become dry while talking. It's known that the virus replicates mainly in the throat during the initial phase of the infection. This is where the main virus load comes from, and this is the main transmission vector before symptoms begin to show. The virus spread in Berlin mainly through clubs. On the dance floor, at the bar. Loud music, you shout into the face of your peer because he/she cannot hear your otherwise - bam.I have no doubt the WHO is aware of this. It seems likely this is why the WHO recommends social and physical distancing. It's easier to implement, more foolproof and less likely to backfire and less of a burden on resources.
After the coughing and sneezing starts, the risk for transmission through smear infection comes from coughing and sneezing into your hands and then touching stuff or other people. This is what the WHO recommendation is targeting. Not only through washing your hands but also through "sneezing and coughing hygiene" (into your elbow, not into your hands, because you don't touch door handles and other people with the inner side of your elbow).
I'm aware of that study that suggests the virus easily survives days on plastic or metal surfaces and stays active. This has been demonstrated in the lab only, by infecting bacteria cultures in a petri dish. It's not yet clear how/if this study can be transferred into real world risk. The study only shows, if you put a droplet full of virus onto a plastic or metal sheet and then let it dry for a certain amount of time (some hours, days) the virus is still able to infect a petri dish full of bacteria in optimal environment.
SiliconWizard, I may be stubborn but at least I don't hand wave and pretend to know better than the authority on the matter. Do you really think your arguments haven't occurred to an institute's worth of health care professionals?
I’ve noticed that Amazon has been pushing back delivery dates to late April. As Amazon Prime member I’m used to free 2-day and even next day delivery. I browsed Amazon for few things yesterday and today, and I’ve noticed that many items had magical delivery date of April 22. Some items were still available for delivery this or next week, but most had that strange ETA.
Is Amazon shutting down some of its distribution centers?
We should get Bill Gates involved. The guy has been fighting viruses since Windows 95.He also held a memorable TED talk about 5 years ago about the threat of pandemics.
People sneeze and cough for many reasons even they are not infected. They also spread droplets when they talk.I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo
I'm aware of that study that suggests the virus easily survives days on plastic or metal surfaces and stays active. This has been demonstrated in the lab only, by infecting bacteria cultures in a petri dish. It's not yet clear how/if this study can be transferred into real world risk. The study only shows, if you put a droplet full of virus onto a plastic or metal sheet and then let it dry for a certain amount of time (some hours, days) the virus is still able to infect a petri dish full of bacteria in optimal environment.
You didn't address any of what I just said above.I've read what they say. They also say to only use masks if you know how to use them. That's not many people. As far as the droplets argument I'm going to point at my previous post about social distancing and argue that this will have occurred to the WHO. Their advice takes this into account and I don't think either of us are really qualified to second guess it. A barrier isn't necessarily better than none for reasons discussed. If anything this thread is a good illustration why the average Joe cannot be relied upon to follow simple advice and instructions. They'll do whatever seems right to them and potentially cause a disaster because they don't have a clue what they're doing.
I linked to the recommendations of the WHO that clearly imply that masks are to be used if you may be infected, or if you're dealing with someone who is. The WHO you keep mentioning writes that. Have you actually read what they say?
The only thing I'm questioning at this point concerning what they say is that they seem to restrict the use of masks only if you or someone you have to be close to is infected, and my questioning is because there are likely a lot of people not showing any symptom but that are also clear potential vectors.
I do not agree again that only if you cough or sneeze heavily you're a hazard. We keep emitting very small droplets all the time without noticing it. And anyway, we may just cough or sneeze randomly without being able to control it just because of dust or anything else. So my point is NO you don't have to have developed clear symptoms to be contagious.
Now given the scarcity of masks, it can make sense to be cautious about promoting them unreasonably. This is risk and resource management. I personally think that if they had recommended for everyone to wear masks regardless of their condition, this would have triggered an uncontrollable panic as we just can't provide them. That I understand fully. I also agree with the point that most people don't know how to put them on properly, but still think some barrier is better than none at all.
For the rest, I again haven't seen in the WHO recommendations a clear point saying that masks are useless, since they recommend using them in the above cases.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/aboard-the-ruby-princess-how-one-cruise-spawned-a-covid-19-outbreak-20200323-p54d2f.html (https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/aboard-the-ruby-princess-how-one-cruise-spawned-a-covid-19-outbreak-20200323-p54d2f.html)So we know about these major stuff ups but I'm sure there a many we don't hear about.
The NSW government and the Federal government fail to accept responsibility and accountability for this utter debacle, preferring to point the finger at each other. No leadership at all. They must fear what is going to happen to them because of this.
Reminds me of the NSW government and the dangerous iPad chargers being sold. An innocent young woman was electrocuted and they lied to the public to protect their own own arses.
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? :-//It can hurt. That's the whole point. :palm:
Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.
But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead. :-+
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? :-//
Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.
But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead. :-+
A sample of some South Korean people thoughts on how they think their country is faring better than others.Likely the Korean people are better prepared for outbreaks after the SARS outbreak. Including instructions & training on how to use masks effectively.
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? :-//
Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.
"You seen 'em, you play 'em." (Buster Scruggs)Crime may drop and seems to do so in areas locked down. A swathe of criminal minds sitting on their hands can't be good news though.
I bought 50 masks about 5 years ago and have mailed some out to those in need in concealed packages because of mask theft in the mail.
Crime will be different now. As India is in lock down we won't be getting as many phone calls from low-life Microsoft Help Desk scammers for a couple of weeks. I suspect house burglaries will plummet. Carjackings will drop. Some good side effects will come out of this virus.
A sample of some South Korean people thoughts on how they think their country is faring better than others.
inKR - South KoreaSKKR the virus at first spread within a religious sect
..As India is in lock down we won't be getting as many phone calls from low-life Microsoft Help Desk scammers for a couple of weeks..
Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? :-//It can hurt. That's the whole point. :palm:
Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.
But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead. :-+
..
Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.
Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.Wrong again. :palm: FFS read the WHO recommendations and the reasons posted earlier why (untrained) Joe average shouldn't be messing around with masks!
People here playing with numbers tell you you're 50% likely to be in the same space as an infected person while shopping food. Without getting hung up on the assumptions going into these calculation and their merits, let's just assume it being very likely. You'll casually meet this person with a certain probability. You'll become infected with a certain probability. Now imagine everyone wears a scarf in front of their mouth. Does this reduce the risk of getting infected or not?No, not by all means. We've been over this a couple of times now and the answers remain the same. You're forgetting the part where untrained people touch all kinds of things they shouldn't touch and may very well make things worse. Dispensing advice which differs from the WHO guidelines is a huge risk even for a well respected medical professional. Even when it's well intended laymen should probably refrain from doing so.
In the end, your whole train of argument boils down to just one: People shouldn't wear masks because they will feel protected and exhibit risky behavior. But they do that anyway and wearing protection isn't going to make it worse. The instructions and procedures for wearing face masks are designed for highly infectious and hazardous environments. Your local Costco is no such environment. The London Underground - not so sure. Best avoid entirely, with a mask or not.
The whole idea behind all recommendations to not wear masks is anyway not increased risk of infection to the wearer, but because they are needed elsewhere and creating additional competition for the resource is a really bad idea right now. If the resource was plentiful, nobody would be making such recommendation. Rather, the opposite.
Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.
People who 2 weeks ago thought WHO was a rock group are now experts. :-DDExperts who know better than the actual experts at that. You either need a lot more than two PhDs for that, or a lot less. :-DD
(okay, that wasn't mine, I heard it from a friend yesterday, but still it's hilarious).
Experts who know better than the actual experts at that. You either need a lot more than two PhDs for that, or a lot less. :-DD
In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.
In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.
This is the spirit we like to see.
Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.
In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.
In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.
This is the spirit we like to see.
Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.
Really?? That's wonderful.
Coronavirus: Doctor 'kicked out' by Headington landladyhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-52032909 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-52032909)
This is called "appeal to authority", and is utterly stupid here, because everyone here has looked at what WHO and other expert groups have to say. The fact that some others have reached a different conclusion than you, in a really complex matter, does not mean that you are now officially representing WHO and have understood everything they say 100% correctly. You can agree to disagree, but laughing at others like you are some magical God of the True Information sent by WHO not only makes you look stupid, it's detrimental to the quality of discussion. Maybe just drop it? No need to run in circles for pages after pages.Posts here show that people very blatantly haven't looked at or understand what the WHO is saying or why. Pointing at what they say in conjunction with other evidence and sources isn't an appeal to authority, it's corroborating the story. If you're going to make claims which differ from the leading institution you not only better make bloody sure you know what you're talking about, but also prove it beyond doubt. You do understand that risky behaviour gets people killed in a very literal sense? Good intentions kill people all the same. Dropping it because people can't accept their gut feeling doesn't jive with the best evidence we have isn't an option. This isn't an inclusivity club.
In general it's not a case of knowing better (or not). If one's intuition suggests one thing and expert advice suggests another, shouldn't one try to find out why there is that difference?This is exactly what the WHO does! They look at the research and information from all the experts from different countries and base the information they supply on that. As usual truth is what the majority thinks is right but I rather follow advice resulting from balancing many different opinions than that of a limited group of people (government advisors included).
paulca, I like your idea of a "when this is over" register. Probably want to include all the self proclaimed experts who sit on their butts commenting on stuff they know nothing about, solely to boost their own egos, rather than getting off their arses and taking a lesson from the UK. I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.Careful now, you don't want to keep tripping over those passive aggressive assumptions.
Thanks for the breath of fresh air.
SKSouth Korea death vs amount of cases is increasing and currently 1.379% (126/9137*100)
An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.
An infected person out in public without a mask and sneezing on everyone sounds like a worse thing to me.At this point we're really going in circles. I'll refer to the previous n pages for the how and why on masks. Though it surprises me how intent people are on this "you're just keeping the masks for yourself" conspiracy. Resource management is important in the sense that masks shouldn't be wasted on ineffectual deployment, but the suggestion they're just out to hoard them for doctors is another thing. Let's please not use 1960s healthcare as any kind of example for our current situation. We don't have all the answers now so they definitely didn't have them back then.
The WHO acts like no one outside of the medical system has ever used a mask before and is clueless. There are tens of millions of people in this country alone that have been taught how to use masks in the fire departments, police departments, military, industrial welders and many other occupations.
In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective. Seriously? Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?
I'll be happy for the rest of you not to wear a mask since it will leave more for me but given the choice I will wear one.
A personal note, when the last polio epidemic went around in about 1960, my mother was was of the few trained nurses in our area and I well remember her going around to houses that had been quarantined to check on the people and to take them food and medicine and she always wore a mask. No one debated the effectiveness of the masks, you just wore one, no questions asked.
In general it's not a case of knowing better (or not). If one's intuition suggests one thing and expert advice suggests another, shouldn't one try to find out why there is that difference?This is exactly what the WHO does! They look at the research and information from all the experts from different countries and base the information they supply on that. As usual truth is what the majority thinks is right but I rather follow advice resulting from balancing many different opinions than that of a limited group of people (government advisors included).
paulca, I like your idea of a "when this is over" register. Probably want to include all the self proclaimed experts who sit on their butts commenting on stuff they know nothing about, solely to boost their own egos, rather than getting off their arses and taking a lesson from the UK. I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.
So when you advice "wear a face mask" they tend to think they will get a big box with face masks delivered to their doorstep, with an "user manual" inside, and they will wear a mask and their life will continue exactly as it was before..
You'd have to ask the WHO. There probably is a report somewhere on their website which explains the basis for their recommendations.But doesn't e.g. South Korea have its own WHO equivalent? Why did they come to the opposite conclusion from WHO regarding masks?In general it's not a case of knowing better (or not). If one's intuition suggests one thing and expert advice suggests another, shouldn't one try to find out why there is that difference?This is exactly what the WHO does! They look at the research and information from all the experts from different countries and base the information they supply on that. As usual truth is what the majority thinks is right but I rather follow advice resulting from balancing many different opinions than that of a limited group of people (government advisors included).
Also, you could argue that the Chinese health authorities know more about the problem than anyone, and they seem to be very pro-mask. Again, why?
WHO has failed to establish a consensus or to make a solid case for their anti-mask statements.That is your opinion.
People here playing with numbers tell you you're 50% likely to be in the same space as an infected person while shopping food. Without getting hung up on the assumptions going into these calculation and their merits, let's just assume it being very likely. You'll casually meet this person with a certain probability. You'll become infected with a certain probability. Now imagine everyone wears a scarf in front of their mouth. Does this reduce the risk of getting infected or not?No, not by all means. We've been over this a couple of times now and the answers remain the same. You're forgetting the part where untrained people touch all kinds of things they shouldn't touch and may very well make things worse. Dispensing advice which differs from the WHO guidelines is a huge risk even for a well respected medical professional. Even when it's well intended laymen should probably refrain from doing so.
In the end, your whole train of argument boils down to just one: People shouldn't wear masks because they will feel protected and exhibit risky behavior. But they do that anyway and wearing protection isn't going to make it worse. The instructions and procedures for wearing face masks are designed for highly infectious and hazardous environments. Your local Costco is no such environment. The London Underground - not so sure. Best avoid entirely, with a mask or not.
The whole idea behind all recommendations to not wear masks is anyway not increased risk of infection to the wearer, but because they are needed elsewhere and creating additional competition for the resource is a really bad idea right now. If the resource was plentiful, nobody would be making such recommendation. Rather, the opposite.
Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.
These results suggest that workers who wear gloves do not remove them and wash their hands as they should. Although some researchers and practitioners have contended that glove use can promote poor hand washing practices [...],little data exists on this issue. More research is needed to understand the relationship between glove use and handwashing.And:
Appropriate hand washing and glove use were also related to worker busyness — these hand hygiene behaviors were less likely to occur when workers were busy (i.e., engaged in relatively larger numbers of activities needing handwashing)
It is time for governments and public health agencies to make rational recommendations on appropriate face mask use to complement their recommendations on other preventive measures, such as hand hygiene. WHO currently recommends that people should wear face masks if they have respiratory symptoms or if they are caring for somebody with symptoms. Perhaps it would also be rational to recommend that people in quarantine wear face masks if they need to leave home for any reason, to prevent potential asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission. In addition, vulnerable populations, such as older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, should wear face masks if available. Universal use of face masks could be considered if supplies permit. In parallel, urgent research on the duration of protection of face masks, the measures to prolong life of disposable masks, and the invention on reusable masks should be encouraged. Taiwan had the foresight to create a large stockpile of face masks; other countries or regions might now consider this as part of future pandemic plans.
The major problem I see is the many nations/cultures tend to look after an easy solutions to this pandemic problem.The notion that wearing PPE leads to more risky behaviour isn't a misunderstanding. It's been shown to happen in trained health care and food industry professionals. Thinking it's speculation is the misunderstanding here. It's baffling people are still confused.
So when you advice "wear a face mask" they tend to think they will get a big box with face masks delivered to their doorstep, with an "user manual" inside, and they will wear a mask and their life will continue exactly as it was before..
But wearing a mask is only one thing off MANY others you shall to do.
There are measures at State level (a long list) and then a list what general public should do (a shorter list).
Wearing a face mask is NOT a substitution for "stay at home, do social distancing, wash your hands, ..". You shall DO ALL..
Thus the thought like "wearing a face mask could give you a false feeling of safety" indicates an absolute misunderstanding of the overall process. And the authorities in some countries shall be really careful with what they are telling to their citizens in that matter.
A personal note, when the last polio epidemic went around in about 1960, my mother was was of the few trained nurses in our area and I well remember her going around to houses that had been quarantined to check on the people and to take them food and medicine and she always wore a mask. No one debated the effectiveness of the masks, you just wore one, no questions asked.You are stepping over a very important detail here. Your mother likely put a new mask on before entering each home and took it off after leaving the home and disposed the mask properly. It would surprise me if she was wearing the same mask the whole day long!
SKSouth Korea death vs amount of cases is increasing and currently 1.379% (126/9137*100)
Of course that number is going up. You're conveniently just totally ignoring the 5281 cases that don't have a known outcome yet. (Well, you're not ignoring them, per se, you're actually just lumping them all in with the known recovered to calculate a meaningless percentage.)
Of the first 3856 cases in South Korea where there is an outcome, 126/3856 = 3.27%
You cannot just assume that the other active 5281 cases all miraculously recover with no more deaths. While an epidemic is ongoing, calculating a crude CFR that way is disingenuous at best, dangerous at worst if it makes people complacent. There is a multi-week delay between the detection of most cases and an outcome. During exponential growth in spread it takes time for the outcome numbers to track the new cases. You must look at the trends for forecasting, not the absolute numbers, and when calculating numbers you need to look at what set of patients actually represents your known outcomes.
If you look at the US' number right now and calculate a crude CFR, it would be 802/55243 = 1.45%
Some media has been continuing to report this kind of number, saying things like look, it's only 10x worse than the flu.... But it appears to actually be potentially closer to another order of magnitude higher.
It is still far too early in the US' outbreak to make any conclusions as to what the actual CFR there will be in any particular region. With only 354 declared "recovered" so far nationwide, the naive calculation based on actual outcomes is currently just as meaningless, (other than to watch trends, of course.) We know it will not end up being the current 69.4% once more cases have known outcomes.
As far as expert opinions go:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext)QuoteIt is time for governments and public health agencies to make rational recommendations on appropriate face mask use to complement their recommendations on other preventive measures, such as hand hygiene. WHO currently recommends that people should wear face masks if they have respiratory symptoms or if they are caring for somebody with symptoms. Perhaps it would also be rational to recommend that people in quarantine wear face masks if they need to leave home for any reason, to prevent potential asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission. In addition, vulnerable populations, such as older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, should wear face masks if available. Universal use of face masks could be considered if supplies permit. In parallel, urgent research on the duration of protection of face masks, the measures to prolong life of disposable masks, and the invention on reusable masks should be encouraged. Taiwan had the foresight to create a large stockpile of face masks; other countries or regions might now consider this as part of future pandemic plans.
An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.
I've looked into the two links you posted earlier in the thread. One is a study about food workers likelihood to performing proper hand hygiene in activities with and without gloves. The other ones is an expert opinion on the mertis of using gloves and face masks in a pandemic situation.It's important to understand it's not a black and white matter. Discussions on the internet tend to end up heavily polarized but that's not how real life works. This means that the advice given can change as the situation develops and new information become available. This also means that most measures do some harm and some good and the trick is to pick the ones which do least harm and most good.
From the study:QuoteThese results suggest that workers who wear gloves do not remove them and wash their hands as they should. Although some researchers and practitioners have contended that glove use can promote poor hand washing practices [...],little data exists on this issue. More research is needed to understand the relationship between glove use and handwashing.And:QuoteAppropriate hand washing and glove use were also related to worker busyness — these hand hygiene behaviors were less likely to occur when workers were busy (i.e., engaged in relatively larger numbers of activities needing handwashing)
The study does _not_ show conclusively a dependency between hand hygiene and glove use. Just as likely, time pressure may be the driver here, as removing the gloves before washing and putting them on again afterwards are time consuming activities. The generalization from here to "protective gear promotes careless behavior" is not obvious to me.
As far as expert opinions go:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext)QuoteIt is time for governments and public health agencies to make rational recommendations on appropriate face mask use to complement their recommendations on other preventive measures, such as hand hygiene. WHO currently recommends that people should wear face masks if they have respiratory symptoms or if they are caring for somebody with symptoms. Perhaps it would also be rational to recommend that people in quarantine wear face masks if they need to leave home for any reason, to prevent potential asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission. In addition, vulnerable populations, such as older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, should wear face masks if available. Universal use of face masks could be considered if supplies permit. In parallel, urgent research on the duration of protection of face masks, the measures to prolong life of disposable masks, and the invention on reusable masks should be encouraged. Taiwan had the foresight to create a large stockpile of face masks; other countries or regions might now consider this as part of future pandemic plans.
Just a thought - if the mask is virus-soaked then aren't those virii not in the person? Without the mask, they would have been breathed in, wouldn't they?I feel the discussion suffers greatly from people dropping in and catching only half of what was discussed. Not that these people are to blame necessarily but it adds to the confusion. That remark was about infected people wearing a mask.
They did not do a thing until French president Macron got furious and threatened to shut down the border with them.
Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.
QuoteAn infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.
Just a thought - if the mask is virus-soaked then aren't those virii not in the person? Without the mask, they would have been breathed in, wouldn't they?
I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.
In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective. Seriously? Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?
I'll be happy for the rest of you not to wear a mask since it will leave more for me but given the choice I will wear one.
...there are apparently a lot of people who test positive without symptoms.
About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.
The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.
I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.
Why do you need to wait for the Government? We didn't sit around waiting for the government here, last week some of my neighbours printed out some flyers with contact details asking if people needed help or if there were people who were prepared to offer help and posted them through everybody's letterboxes. One instant, self-organized community support group.
If you want to do something useful, do it now. Check whether you've got some vulnerable neighbours you could shop for. See if your local church/community groups are organising something and volunteer. Or copy my neighbours and start up a neighbourhood community support group if there isn't something already existing that you can join in. Just needs a phone number, email address, a computer printer and some shoe leather.
About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.
The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].I've see a number of 16,000 ventilators for NY. If to assume each of the 3% critical patients in ICU will get one, an estimate of total cases will look like 500,000 or something?
It is believed he suffered mild symptoms over the weekend while at Highgrove House in Gloucester and flew privately to Scotland on Sunday night where he was tested on Monday.
(...)
Charles most recently saw the Queen "briefly" on March 12.
Medical experts believe the earliest Charles would have been contagious was March 13.
Why do you need to wait for the Government?
About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.
The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].
Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?
In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective. Seriously? Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?
If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].
Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?
As I can remember from the briefieng gov Cuomo wants 140.000 beds with ~30.000 ventilators in the apex of the curve which comes in 21 days.NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].I've see a number of 16,000 ventilators for NY. If to assume each of the 3% critical patients in ICU will get one, an estimate of total cases will look like 500,000 or something?
NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].
Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?
An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%
With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.
The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease.
I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.
In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective. Seriously? Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?
If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?
Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.
An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%
With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.
Oh yeah...the "knock 'em down a peg guy".
Note to self: "STOP FOLLOWING THE CHAT FORUM !!!" |O
New York State has now surpassed more than 30,800 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus, with 2,260 in Suffolk County. About 3,800 people are being treated for the virus in New York hospitals with 888 in intensive care units.
The governor also repeated his estimate that New York will hit its “apex of need” — the peak number of patients being treated in hospitals — within 21 days. To meet the anticipated demand, the state still needs to find a way to acquire 15,000 ventilators and about 20,000 additional hospital beds beyond the current plan.
Mr. Cuomo said the state had 4,000 ventilators before the pandemic reached its borders and has since acquired 7,000 through purchase and 4,000 more through the federal government. Its projected need is about 30,000 ventilators and the governor said the state is exploring ways to treat two patients with one ventilator to help bridge the gap.
In order to meet the demand for hospital beds, the state has directed all hospitals to expand by 50% – with some doubling in size — the federal government is building auxiliary hospital space and supplying a Navy medical ship, and the state will use downstate college dormitories. The governor said using space in hotels and nursing homes could be a next step as the state looks to grow the number of beds to 140,000.
In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective. Seriously? Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?
If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?
Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.
Except there's no evidence to point to a lie. That's why the "If, IF," qualification. And frankly, I don't think a bunch of engineers who hadn't heard of "basic reproduction number" or "case fatality ratios" two weeks ago, some of whom think that you culture human viruses in bacteria in a Petri dish, or can't tell the difference between a virologist, an epidemiologist or a general practitioner, or think that Kreb's cycle is something that you pedal, and probably think that xenic technique is something to do with how you handle foreigners, are best placed to make the judgement whether it's a lie or not.
However i'm not really being sold on the data from other countries (huge slow down in US,UK,Germany and france all at once :-// )
Can somebody comment/explain this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI)
and especially this:
http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)
So you looked a few fancy terms. It doesn't mean that you have any idea of what you're talking about.
The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease. I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.
Regards, Dieter
Yeah...
This has probably been posted several times already, but just in case: https://virusncov.com/ (https://virusncov.com/)
Can somebody comment/explain this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI)
and especially this:
http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.
Can somebody comment/explain this?I would say he thinks aloud whether the scientific community can, or is willing (because of the panic) to discuss critically (aka critical thinking) how is the contribution of the cases caused by the known "old" corona viruses during the season (as there is a large number of various "corona viruses" existing, they usually mixing with influenza viruses during the season) versus the current contribution of "sars-cov-2 corona virus". You have to be good in german to understand the "nuances" of his loud thinking (not reading the subtitles), while I can I would say he indicates that he thinks the scientists have got a pretty hard time today to discuss that "critically".
and especially this:
Officially getting my hopes up
(Attachment Link)
However i'm not really being sold on the data from other countries (huge slow down in US,UK,Germany and france all at once :-// )
Can somebody comment/explain this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yfT1NtMOiI)
and especially this:
http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)
Can somebody comment/explain this?I would say he thinks aloud whether the scientific community can, or is willing (because of the panic) to discuss critically how is the contribution of the cases caused by the known "old" corona viruses during the season (as there is a large number of various "corona viruses" existing, they usually mixing with influenza viruses during the season) versus the current contribution of "sars-cov-2 corona virus". You have to be good in german to understand the "nuances" of his loud thinking, while I can I would say he indicates that he thinks the scientists have got a pretty hard time today to discuss that "critically".
and especially this:
Can somebody comment/explain this?
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.
And presumably you base that on watching the video? Odd then that you were able to respond at 19:01:56 to a comment posted at 18:59:59 - a whole 2 minutes to watch a 10 minute video and compose a comment about it? Impressive.
"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,
I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it::palm:
* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.
"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,
While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus. Given the current lack of reliable PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.
Graduating new doctors and nurses a bit early from their school programs, though, would probably make a lot of sense. Being allowed to help with basic care, even if they haven't technically completed every requirement yet might be rather useful very soon.
Yes. The typical Youtube mis-information clickbait.I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it::palm:
* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.
so he's just the usual nut who pretends he is the only one who knows the truth while all the other guys are just fools...
they had to rely on both measures in the most stricken part of Italy
tenths of doctors have died during the last month
To be honest, my initial reaction was this has all been blown out of proportion, but I soon realised I was obviously wrong. I'm glad I wasn't running the country.Yes. The typical Youtube mis-information clickbait.I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it::palm:
* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.
so he's just the usual nut who pretends he is the only one who knows the truth while all the other guys are just fools...
There are a few articles out there with positive patients who are asymptomatic.
Here is one:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/ (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/)
"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,
While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus. Given the current lack of reliable PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.
Graduating new doctors and nurses a bit early from their school programs, though, would probably make a lot of sense. Being allowed to help with basic care, even if they haven't technically completed every requirement yet might be rather useful very soon.
they had to rely on both measures in the most stricken part of Italy
tenths of doctors have died during the last month
While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus. Given the current lack of reliable PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.
Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?
They don't necessarily have to get pushed into the front line. They can fill in in lower risk rôles to free up the doctors currently doing that for front line duty. Although there is a quantity of stuff that the health care system can postpone, let's not forget that there's a lot of other urgent and emergency stuff going on all the time that isn't going away and still needs doctors and nurses to deal with.
I know they just recently opened up a drive through testing station by me that doesn't require an appt so that should, statistically, help us get a better picture here. The valley is relatively dense. Now all the people who refuse to stay home can stop by there while they're party hopping.
I heard while it does not require an appointment, they still triage people at the entrance so not everyone gets a test. Is that correct?
I'm not sure about specifics, I'd basically have to go down there to learn more and I can't drive ATM. I don't want to take my wife and kids down there either. As soon as I can I'd be happy to find out. That's more an issue of time if they do though, not that they won't test you just need to wait longer.
Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.
FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.
Here's where the US stands:
- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.
- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report
- #3 in confirmed cases to date.
- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.
- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population
Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.
FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.
Here's where the US stands:
- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.
- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report
- #3 in confirmed cases to date.
- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.
- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population
I heard while it does not require an appointment, they still triage people at the entrance so not everyone gets a test. Is that correct?I'm not sure about specifics, I'd basically have to go down there to learn more and I can't drive ATM. I don't want to take my wife and kids down there either. As soon as I can I'd be happy to find out. That's more an issue of time if they do though, not that they won't test you just need to wait longer.
I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...
Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?
I do not think they know some secret magic recipes but in this difficult situation for Italy any help with resources, human and technical ones, is a big relief. The Russians sent 15 monster cargo planes full of equipment and desinfecting trucks, but it is probably too early to estimate results as that happened just over the last 48 hrs.
I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...
That would be discrimination. The by appt. ones are definitely more exclusive. In fact, I had all the symptoms and couldn't get tested. I think approving places like LabCorp to do testing is going to be a bigger help than having govt control everything.
I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...
That would be discrimination. The by appt. ones are definitely more exclusive. In fact, I had all the symptoms and couldn't get tested. I think approving places like LabCorp to do testing is going to be a bigger help than having govt control everything.
Yup, but using that word to describe it doesn't make it illegal. Discrimination is called triage when insufficient resources are being allocated to an emergency situation. Think of this as a preview of what happens when some hospitals are low on ventilators, not just testing ability. The ones getting hospitalization today are lucky in the sense that they're getting proper care before the capacity is exhausted. Some of those needing respiratory care later on are not going to survive a normally survivable situation.
So you looked a few fancy terms. It doesn't mean that you have any idea of what you're talking about.Some people on here actually do have a clue what they're talking about. Most seem to want to avoid an argument from authority and present worthwhile information instead. Not all opinions are created equal.
And in case you missed it, after weeks of the WHO, CDC and other "experts"claiming that industrial grade masks weren't effective against the virus, US officials are now suddenly saying that they good enough to be used in hospitals! They claim that the problem was that industrial mask makers don't have the liability insurance to make that claim but now the US has passed a law removing any liability against them. BINGO! Now the US is supplying industrial grade masks to hospitals!
Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?
I do not think they know some secret magic recipes but in this difficult situation for Italy any help with resources, human and technical ones, is a big relief. The Russians sent 15 monster cargo planes full of equipment and desinfecting trucks, but it is probably too early to estimate results as that happened just over the last 48 hrs.
There they are going to Bergamo, lots of trucks.
https://youtu.be/GvOUuhaM4bM (https://youtu.be/GvOUuhaM4bM)
That said, what looks sort of weird is that the slowdown seems correlated with the date the confinement officially started, whereas due to the incubation time, we would expect a longer latency...
I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.
In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.
In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.
This is the spirit we like to see.
Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.
Really?? That's wonderful.
I dunno, I've grown up with a huge respect for the people in the UK. Y'know, "stiff upper lip" and all. They always seemed to be the "adults in the room" while the rest of the world is flailing around. Not sure how it's been in recent years, but it's good to see that they're yet again a role model.
Social distancing slows down the virus outbreak, yet it causes lots of other damages. It can only be an emergency measure.
Let's see what happens next in China. I guess people in the west should learn as fast as possible how make and properly use masks. Western media should contribute in that effort. Also western leaders should give a good example and use masks. How can anybody seriously propose to loosen shutdown and not tell people at the same time they will have to wear masks whenever they leave their house. I am not talking about those simple medical masks. Everybody will need a pile of fitted masks so there is a fresh one whenever you need it.
Regards, Dieter
That said, what looks sort of weird is that the slowdown seems correlated with the date the confinement officially started, whereas due to the incubation time, we would expect a longer latency...
Well, yes, that's why i waited for some days before starting to get my hopes up.
Also, containment measures in lombardia and veneto (the most afflicted regions at the time) started about 3-7 days before national scale containment was enacted.
I expect there to be a slow down and then another rapid rise, because there was the mass of people from southern italy living in the north that panicked and returned in mass to the south before they could effectively restrict public transport
In the long run the graphs per region will show several bells, with those from the south having the peak at least 30 days after the ones from the north, delaying the end of the emergency.
On Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, I assume is this guy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg#Public_appearance_in_the_2020_COVID-19_crisis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg#Public_appearance_in_the_2020_COVID-19_crisis)
I don't think he is absolutely wrong. I'm not a doctor. I think he has some valid points of false positives and normal "flu season" noise getting picked up in the numbers. Actually worth listening to for a different point of view.
It's brought out the best, as well as the worst in people. The government have been inundated with volunteers to help out with this emergency.In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.
In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.
This is the spirit we like to see.
Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.
Really?? That's wonderful.
I dunno, I've grown up with a huge respect for the people in the UK. Y'know, "stiff upper lip" and all. They always seemed to be the "adults in the room" while the rest of the world is flailing around. Not sure how it's been in recent years, but it's good to see that they're yet again a role model.
Not anymore. We have a dual pandemic, the virus itself and stupidity. The government are pretending that if they tell people what to do they will do it and we are different and don't need any of this lockdown rubbish but reality is plenty of people are not being sensible.
At work the shop floor staff take the piss that us office people get to work from home whilst not all of them are being sensible. When they all get it together and we have to close us office bods that have it easy will be the ones continuing to work from home whilst the nut and bolt assemblers will be at home having it easy.
They created a company wide whtsapp group and in two hours had to close it due to the stupidity going around on it. They were so stupid that it took 1 in 20+ 2 hours to figure out that management were in the group too...... That's your stiff upper lip brits.
The number of deaths as well as cases is likely to be underestimated, because some people die at home. There will also be lots of people who will indirectly killed because they're suffering from other illnesses and can't be treated because all the beds are taken by COVID-19 patients.Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.
FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.
Here's where the US stands:
- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.
- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report
- #3 in confirmed cases to date.
- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.
- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population
Ok. All true enough. I don't understand what point you're trying to make, though.
They are also:
- #1 in active, unresolved cases.
- #1 in new confirmed infections per day
- #1 in speed of rise in cases since first 100 detected
(the slope of the line is almost right on the doubles-every-2-days line, surpassing Italy and Spain)
Within the next 48h they will also become the country with the highest number of total confirmed cases.
Apulia or Puglia as I knew it when I lived there apparently has people being stopped even from town to town to see if their journey is necessary although my friend lies to get through so that he can go and eat at his parents. It's also a very insular and rural area so even with many people going about their daily work providing they do sensible things at shops.
Here I see shops starting to implement distance queuing and limited amounts of people in at one time because us more intelligent stiff upper lip just carry on blitz spirit brits are just too stupid to stay 2m apart and not crowd into shops.
..While of course that is just a piece of data, that's true for a small town and we cannot be sure how much that's apply to all the various regions of Italy or to the whole country, yet it gives an idea that only an idiot can think there is an overestimation of deaths.
The renters who lost their jobs need supporting, not greedy f%#king landlords.Or, put in more neutral terms (so even money-oriented politicians understand), landlords are not risking their investment, only a fraction of their return on investment, whereas most of the renters are at risk of homelessness, because they cannot work and get paid, and thus are having difficulty paying their rent. We take care of the renters, and the landlords get theirs too automatically (and will not lose even that fraction of their returns).
This virus highlights the wealth gap between the haves and have-nots.
Here is a solution to isolating the homeless in London, Melbourne and many other cities infested with foreign ghost property owners. The government takes over the empty apartments owned by foreigners to be used for the homeless until the virus is no longer a threat. No compensation to the owners. In Melbourne there are around 80,000 permanently empty apartments and houses owned by mostly foreigners, many of whom are just hiding money here.
It was reported in the media the landlords are crying poor and want assistance from the taxpayer if people cannot pay their rents. A handout cash splash for landlords will likely happen because most of the politicians are housing investors, and they always agree unanimously on any legislation that feathers their own nests. The renters who lost their jobs need supporting, not greedy f%#king landlords.
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask. I expected it would be a quick process and intended to maintain a safe distance but when their computers went offline I suddenly found myself stuck in a close proximity queue for thirty minutes more than I would have liked.
Note to self: Don't count on the competence of others. ::)
In Italy, like in most countries there are more sensible people who abide by the rules (that serve one's own health), and others that, out of utter ignorance and stupidity, just do not care. The proportion of those is likely different in every country, but as soon as some people they know dies, those latter may change their attitude.At least in that case, he's statistically speaking got more chance of surviving than her, but he might infect his parents or grandparents who don't stand a chance, especially if he still lives with his family, which I know is often the case, especially in areas where property prices are high.
I get out as few times as I can (usually once or twice a week) with the only FFP3 mask left from the stock I bought one year ago.
There are not so many people around. But even in the really short time I was out I witnessed various display of pure idiocy like a 40-50 y-old woman who took off her mask to kiss a young man (may be a relative who'd just arrived from north Italy ?) and so on.
The problem is that those idiots may survive and still kill other people who do not deserve that (e.g. health care staff).
Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad. ::)After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....can't you do that online?
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same.. :scared:Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad. ::)After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....can't you do that online?
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same.. :scared:Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad. ::)After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....can't you do that online?
Mr.Scram,
How often do you wear a proper equipment?
You sound very well versed in the art.
Please share your personal killer tips as a professional.
I am just curious, because I wear P100 respirators, sealed goggles and FFP3 masks on a daily basis. Maybe I have been endangering myself all this time?
Thanks for your help with this matter.
LeoI feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.
One great thing in Finland right now is that mostly, maybe except for some limited areas in very central Helsinki, we live sparsely, compared to any large European city (let alone New York :phew:). Even in our typical 100k people cities, you can pretty much take a walk without having to face too many people on the way, and can easily maintain two meters of distance all the time. This is why we are unlikely to see full-blown curfews here; it's enough to limit people actually gathering indoors (or dense outdoor activities), but we have enough sidewalk space, not to even talk about the forests.
The number of deaths as well as cases is likely to be underestimated, because some people die at home.
Top tip. If you want to bump someone off at the moment, use a method that mimics pneumonia*. Chances that you get caught are slim to none. >:D
* No, I am not going to tell you how. Yes, your boss is a horror, but don't you think homicide is a bit of an extreme response to no pay rise for two years and a lot of unpaid overtime?
Canadian govt has planned to give extra money to everyone with moderate to low income with kids and $2000 / month for 4 months to people who are out of work because of covid.
BC, Canada govt made new rule that tenants cant be evicted for not paying rent. They are also paying $500/month to landlords if their tenants say they are losing money because of covid. Standard rent is $1000 - $2000 / month.
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.
Neither my wife nor myself get any free covid money but we expect to pay more taxes soon.
A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923.There were 50 trillion Marks banknotes used in groceries to pay..
By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.
this 101 years old boy now is immune to SARS-CoV-2 :)Well good for him. It's a bit off-topic, but I wonder if the previous swine flu pandemic wasn't as bad, as it could've been because the virus was a strain of H1N1 which occurred back in 1918 and many of the old people either lived through, it as young children, or acquired immunity as babies suckling at their mothers' breasts?
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fbologna.repubblica.it%2Fcronaca%2F2020%2F03%2F26%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_guarisce_a_101_anni-252361069%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I252189793-C12-P18-S11.4-T1 (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fbologna.repubblica.it%2Fcronaca%2F2020%2F03%2F26%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus_guarisce_a_101_anni-252361069%2F%3Fref%3DRHPPTP-BH-I252189793-C12-P18-S11.4-T1)
I'm happy he survived that.
I remember there has been another 101 years old chinese man who fully recovered a while ago.
Canadian govt has planned to give extra money to everyone with moderate to low income with kids and $2000 / month for 4 months to people who are out of work because of covid.Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.
BC, Canada govt made new rule that tenants cant be evicted for not paying rent. They are also paying $500/month to landlords if their tenants say they are losing money because of covid. Standard rent is $1000 - $2000 / month.
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.
Neither my wife nor myself get any free covid money but we expect to pay more taxes soon.
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.
Yes.QuoteA loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923.There were 50 trillion Marks banknotes used in groceries to pay..
By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
Yes.QuoteA loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923.There were 50 trillion Marks banknotes used in groceries to pay..
By November 1923, the US dollar was worth 4,210,500,000,000 German marks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
Ouch.
G20 countries to inject 5 Trillion USD into the economy.. [CNN]
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.
Hmm, let's see if Kasper can give more info, but don't get all worked up. Said neighbours may have had a small party between themselves without inviting anyone not living in their house. In this case, it's not going to spread anything more.
Zen. ::)
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.
Hmm, let's see if Kasper can give more info, but don't get all worked up. Said neighbours may have had a small party between themselves without inviting anyone not living in their house. In this case, it's not going to spread anything more.
Zen. ::)
Hope is good in a time like this, that's why I included 'small' when I described their party. Just a few visitors was my guess. I was more focused on them being outside drinking, making noise all day.
I think some people have made it their lifetime goal to do as little work as possible and I fear they believe spreading covid will help them accomplish that goal.
G20 countries to inject 5 Trillion USD into the economy.. [CNN]
Sure. Void money.
Anyway... some people were apparently claiming that Covid-19 crisis would have only a minor impact on economy.
A 5-trillion USD minor impact. That's almost pocket money indeed. :horse:
There's a line between people happy to get some help in hard times, and people actively celebrating, or even making worse, a crisis that they think will help them become parasites.
I was again thinking of the former case - I hope I was more right than you are here, otherwise we're in big trouble...
It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?
(...) because finally everyone are taking strong actions, believing they are limiting the death toll - and most likely, they are absolutely correct about it.
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same.. :scared:Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad. ::)After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....can't you do that online?
I don't think anyone can deny the effectiveness of confinement. It sure is a sudden and big disruption in both people's daily life and economy, but since virus spread is through human contact, I can't see how it would be possible that drastically limiting contacts would not drastically limit the spread.
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.
OK, perhpas he is, perhaps he is not - the same applies to all of us. But there was another link which, unfortunately, is pure data - no opinion. As you obviously missed it, here it is again:
http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)
It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?
Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.
.. No, the New Yorkers all all fleeing New York like rats leaving a sinking ship.White House calls for everybody leaving NY should go into 14 days quarantine, afaik.. :)
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same.. :scared:Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad. ::)After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....can't you do that online?
No, the New Yorkers all all fleeing New York like rats leaving a sinking ship. A week ago there was only about 3 flights per day from New York to Florida but few days ago there were 196 flights. the number of people fleeing New York to go to Florida is increasing even faster than the virus. Do the math, 196 flights per day x an average of 250 passengers per flight. The Florida governor is mad as hell about the number of untested people arriving here and has been trying to get the president to stop the flights but the airlines want the revenue and Trump is going to give them what they want. The airlines are going to ensure that the entire country is thoroughly infected but they'll have theirblood money, er, revenue.
BTW I just looked at the numbers in the bailout bill that the US Congress just passed. Big Business, mostly the airlines, are getting a $500million bailout but the hospitals are only getting $100million. :--
Needless to say, enforcing the actions by the police/military are only needed because of these groups of people. This is why the Finnish strategy, "we only give suggestions and trust people follow them" is a catastrophe.
Is there anywhere that shows data day to day country by country?
Needless to say, enforcing the actions by the police/military are only needed because of these groups of people. This is why the Finnish strategy, "we only give suggestions and trust people follow them" is a catastrophe.
I don't know a lot about Finland, but a bit about nordic countries in general, and I would have expected people there to be a lot more well behaved than this. But maybe it's just a small fraction of all people (but in that case, that would not be as significant a problem as it is?) Or maybe the Finnish are just obnoxious? Or something. :P
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
Actually we had some opinion poll numbers how the people here see the actions of the government. I forgot the source, but they were approximately like this: 45% thinks they underreact, 45% thinks they react in the correct proportion at the correct time; 10% thinks they overreact. It's this 10% of people who are dangerous as is and need to be actually enforced with sanctions. 0.1% wouldn't matter; 10% does.
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) now has a deaths/1M pop column in their charts, saving you from doing the math. Italy and Spain are way ahead of everyone else by that measure.
Is there anywhere that shows data day to day country by country?Wikipedia has a dedicated page (article?) per country where you can typically find daily graphs and number of infections per region / county.
I guess it's somewhat futile to compare numbers or even ratios of different countries since it's unclear how many people are tested and how many infected/dead are actually reported.
Today the number of 410k totally tested was published in Germany, but at the same time our leading Corona expert claimed that 500k people would be tested per week while the number of a maximum of 160k tests per week was claimed only some days ago and now a number of up to 360k tests per week being possible was given by the public health insurance organization.
Anyway, the number of tested is very high in Germany, while I would assume it's rather low in countries like Iran. Actually, if I understand the numbers of the CDC correctly, even in the USA only around 100k tests were performed up to now. And of course it's highly questionable if illiberal states publish reliable numbers.
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
In the UK it currently seems as though most people die from it.
Look at "Closed Cases"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/)
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) now has a deaths/1M pop column in their charts, saving you from doing the math. Italy and Spain are way ahead of everyone else by that measure.
Not sure I'd fancy my chances in San Marino at the moment tbh.
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
In the UK it currently seems as though most people die from it.
Look at "Closed Cases"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/)
Probably a lot. That's the point, this is REALLY bad for people with other issues.
But the patient HAD NO SYMPTOMS, was just infected (as many of us most likely are, since various flu viruses are all around us) and died from cancer !
3 months ago nobody would count it as a COVID case. Bad data are worse that no data...
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.
OK, perhpas he is, perhaps he is not - the same applies to all of us. But there was another link which, unfortunately, is pure data - no opinion. As you obviously missed it, here it is again:
http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html)
It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?
Nobody else needs to wear a mask, and there are several reasons for that.
One is that a mask is not seen as reliable protection, given that current research shows the virus is spread by droplets and contact with contaminated surfaces. So it could protect you, but only in certain situations such as when you're in close quarters with others where someone infected might sneeze or cough near your face. This is why experts say frequent hand washing with soap and water is far more effective.
Removing a mask requires special attention to avoid hand contamination, and it could also breed a false sense of security.
Some argue that ubiquitous mask wearing, as a very visual reminder of the dangers of the virus, could actually act as a "behavioural nudge" to you and others for overall better personal hygiene.
Then, there's the idea that every little bit counts in the war the world is waging against the virus.
"We can't say if face masks are ineffective, but we presume they have some effect because that's the protection we give to healthcare workers," said Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist with Hong Kong University.
In countries where mask wearing is not the norm, such as the West, those who do wear masks have been shunned or even attacked. It hasn't helped that many of these mask wearers are Asians.
But those societies that do advocate everyone wearing a mask may have a point and increasingly, experts are now questioning the official WHO advice.
The last patient that died here -> received in the hospital in poor condition, with cancer in terminal stage, no previous symptoms, not isolated, but out
of precaution tested for COVID, found positive, dies afer an hour and is now counted as COVID victim. I mean, really :palm: ? How many similar cases
are out there?
The last patient that died here -> received in the hospital in poor condition, with cancer in terminal stage, no previous symptoms, not isolated, but outOTOH in the NL doctors say that some deceased Covid-19 victims aren't counted because they wheren't tested for Corona but had several symptoms pointing towards being infected.
of precaution tested for COVID, found positive, dies afer an hour and is now counted as COVID victim. I mean, really :palm: ? How many similar cases
are out there?
Meanwhile, the US is now number one in number of infected - "America first!" remember?I'm getting the feeling the US is not going to try really hard to contain the Covid-19 virus from spreading in order to minimise the hit on the economy. Or put differently: it seems there just isn't enough money around to serve as a life boat for the economy.
And thanks to governors such as that of Mississippi is trying to do its best to ramp up in the number of deaths, as well:
My latest summary of the WHO March 26 report, hot off the presses. This is for the 8 countries with the most confirmed cases. I also included some info I didn't have before.
Attached chart of deaths to date and new deaths for the US shows deaths to date (884) in yellow, and new deaths each day in dark blue.
- US remains #3 in total confirmed cases to date.
- US remains #6 in total confirmed cases as a % of population.
- US moved up one spot in number of total deaths to date as a % of population (from #8 to #7)
- For the last 4 days US has had a flat rate of approx. 200 new deaths total per day, except for the 24th when it had only 69 (about the same as the 19th thru the 22nd when it was flat with around 40-50 each day).
The last patient that died here -> received in the hospital in poor condition, with cancer in terminal stage, no previous symptoms, not isolated, but outOTOH in the NL doctors say that some deceased Covid-19 victims aren't counted because they wheren't tested for Corona but had several symptoms pointing towards being infected.
of precaution tested for COVID, found positive, dies afer an hour and is now counted as COVID victim. I mean, really :palm: ? How many similar cases
are out there?Meanwhile, the US is now number one in number of infected - "America first!" remember?I'm getting the feeling the US is not going to try really hard to contain the Covid-19 virus from spreading in order to minimise the hit on the economy. Or put differently: it seems there just isn't enough money around to serve as a life boat for the economy.
And thanks to governors such as that of Mississippi is trying to do its best to ramp up in the number of deaths, as well:
My latest summary of the WHO March 26 report, hot off the presses. This is for the 8 countries with the most confirmed cases. I also included some info I didn't have before.
Attached chart of deaths to date and new deaths for the US shows deaths to date (884) in yellow, and new deaths each day in dark blue.
- US remains #3 in total confirmed cases to date.
- US remains #6 in total confirmed cases as a % of population.
- US moved up one spot in number of total deaths to date as a % of population (from #8 to #7)
- For the last 4 days US has had a flat rate of approx. 200 new deaths total per day, except for the 24th when it had only 69 (about the same as the 19th thru the 22nd when it was flat with around 40-50 each day).
The conspicuous absence of Germany on that list seemed odd since I knw it had more cases than Iran, France, The Netherlands or the UK, so I took a closer look at the WHO report for that date: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2 (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2)
The numbers match for the countries listed, but it's now obvious to me that you misinterpreted what the 2nd chart is. And fooled yourself into drawing the wrong conclusions.
The chart is actually the 8 countries with the most confirmed deaths, which is a different subset of countries than confirmed cases.
With either subset of countries, it's misleading to state deaths by % of population at all, unless that's also the criteria selecting the subset of countries you're looking at. For instance, if you look at the entire list, while the US is obviously on the rise, there are quite a few countries ahead of it when sorted by % deaths/population.
Is that an Arduino?
My latest summary of the WHO March 26 report, hot off the presses. This is for the 8 countries with the most confirmed cases. I also included some info I didn't have before.
Attached chart of deaths to date and new deaths for the US shows deaths to date (884) in yellow, and new deaths each day in dark blue.
- US remains #3 in total confirmed cases to date.
- US remains #6 in total confirmed cases as a % of population.
- US moved up one spot in number of total deaths to date as a % of population (from #8 to #7)
- For the last 4 days US has had a flat rate of approx. 200 new deaths total per day, except for the 24th when it had only 69 (about the same as the 19th thru the 22nd when it was flat with around 40-50 each day).
The conspicuous absence of Germany on that list seemed odd since I knw it had more cases than Iran, France, The Netherlands or the UK, so I took a closer look at the WHO report for that date: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2 (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200326-sitrep-66-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=81b94e61_2)
The numbers match for the countries listed, but it's now obvious to me that you misinterpreted what the 2nd chart is. And fooled yourself into drawing the wrong conclusions.
The chart is actually the 8 countries with the most confirmed deaths, which is a different subset of countries than confirmed cases.
With either subset of countries, it's misleading to state deaths by % of population at all, unless that's also the criteria selecting the subset of countries you're looking at. For instance, if you look at the entire list, while the US is obviously on the rise, there are quite a few countries ahead of it when sorted by % deaths/population.
Yes, I missed Germany. Thanks. So I provide a bunch of data, and you are all free to add any missing data.
As far as "misinterpreting" and "fooling myself" and all the other wonderful stuff you said, let me suggest you tap the brakes a bit. I, unlike most others here, am trying to provide actual data, rather than drone on and on with irrelevant handwaving and ridiculous and irrelevant pseudo-facts solely to make themselves sound smart.
If you don't like the format or the conclusions, then I'm sure you are intelligent enough to draw your own conclusions. I don't owe you anything.
And perhaps even a mumbled "thanks for the info" might be more appropriate don't you think?
I really don't see anything in those comments that justifies you taking such a "chip on the shoulder" attitude to nusa and others. Perhaps you should be the one "tapping the brakes". If you want somewhere you can speak ex cathedra and expect applause for it, this isn't it.At first I was convinced a few people here are just stirring the pot, but now I'm wondering whether the situation is getting to them. It must be rough when your feelings aren't mirrored by the rest of the world.
I'm getting the feeling the US is not going to try really hard to contain the Covid-19 virus from spreading in order to minimise the hit on the economy. Or put differently: it seems there just isn't enough money around to serve as a life boat for the economy.
I'm getting the feeling the US is not going to try really hard to contain the Covid-19 virus from spreading in order to minimise the hit on the economy. Or put differently: it seems there just isn't enough money around to serve as a life boat for the economy.
Unfortunately you might be right about that. It certainly doesn't appear that they've made much of an effort to contain it. More than a few in this forum have been calling for exactly that and in addition, the US government just spend a third of their annual budget today on give away programs to keep the peasants from revolting. And to top it all off they've also promised all sorts of tax exemptions so the tax revenue will be less than usual.
I'm seriously thinking that I should go out and get the virus now while there's still a chance that I'll get treated at a functioning hospital.
Attempted murder charge
As a warning shot to anyone thinking defying the order, police on Wednesday revealed that a businessman had been arrested for disobeying a doctor's instruction to self-quarantine for 14 days.
The 52-year-old was detained in hospital, and charged with attempted murder for endangering the lives of almost 30 people he had interacted with subsequent to the doctor's instruction, police said.
Meanwhile in South Africa...QuoteAttempted murder charge
As a warning shot to anyone thinking defying the order, police on Wednesday revealed that a businessman had been arrested for disobeying a doctor's instruction to self-quarantine for 14 days.
The 52-year-old was detained in hospital, and charged with attempted murder for endangering the lives of almost 30 people he had interacted with subsequent to the doctor's instruction, police said.
"Attempted murder", no less than...
I really don't see anything in those comments that justifies you ...
I'm seriously thinking that I should go out and get the virus now while there's still a chance that I'll get treated at a functioning hospital.
I'm considered high risk too but I still like my chances are better now than they will be in a couple of weeks.
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder
QuotePeople who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder
Just a week ago that was essentially the UK's plan (have people catch it, not the charging bit), albeit in a limited random way. Amazing how quickly the situation changes, and how long ago a short time seems!
I'm considered high risk too but I still like my chances are better now than they will be in a couple of weeks.
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!
QuotePeople who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder
Just a week ago that was essentially the UK's plan (have people catch it, not the charging bit), albeit in a limited random way. Amazing how quickly the situation changes, and how long ago a short time seems!
Source?
Source?
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.I'm more worried about his mum. It was Mother's day Sunday last week in the UK. He told everyone to stay at home and not to see their mothers, if they can avoid it, but he seemed to imply he was going to see his mum anyway! I hope she's okay!
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11964493
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.
It's the first time he's done anything with a positive result.
QuotePeople who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder
Just a week ago that was essentially the UK's plan (have people catch it, not the charging bit), albeit in a limited random way. Amazing how quickly the situation changes, and how long ago a short time seems!
Source?
Now with (from what I've just seen) 958 cases and 5 deaths, things don't look that bad for Finland so far. Don't get me wrong, I'm not underestimating this, and I agree anything should be done to keep this under control, but from figures alone, I can at least slightly understand why some people there would still think it's relatively "mild".
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.
It's the first time he's done anything with a positive result.
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!Why?
As long as they don't infect anyone else, I don't see the problem.People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!Why?
I wonder till when people and media will be ready to watch and comment the counters with "Confirmed". The main counter (551k today) will "finish" at around 10% of Earth's population. It may take till Xmas when all successful with "flattening the curve".
As long as they don't infect anyone else, I don't see the problem.People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!Why?
Politicians are a high risk group, probably just as much so or even more than medical staff, because they travel lots, meet many people and will not be taking the same precautions as doctors and nurses.
As long as they don't infect anyone else, I don't see the problem.People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!Why?
Clearly you don't. Go snort a few door handles and in a week or so, send us a few IMs from the queue for an ICU bed if you end up needing one. When you get that bed, make sure and ask how many people died in the queue outside while you had it.
QuoteI really don't see anything in those comments that justifies you ...
Whereas I did quite easily.
Perhaps the better way to comment would have been to ask which bit he took exception to rather than just saying he's wrong and compounding the issue? :)
I'm considered high risk too but I still like my chances are better now than they will be in a couple of weeks.
People who get this virus deliberately should be charged with terrorism, attempted mass murder and buried or burnt alive!
[...] This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion. [...]
Fair enough, i didn't start watching the news about this until about a week ago.
I thought the hurd immunity thing was debunked as only a fleating suggestion, but reviewing the news from that time it seems he was actually serious until people pointed out just how many critical patients there would be.
[...] This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion. [...]
Welcome to the Internet! ;)
[...] This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion. [...]
Welcome to the Internet! ;)
Back in the day, when I was setting up one of the UK's first ISPs, it attracted a slightly better calibre of interlocutor, where reasoned argument rather than the loudest and most obnoxious voice held sway. Well, some of the time. Now, where was I? Oh yes. What are you doing on my lawn young man!?! :)
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.
One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.
Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Do you have any data/facts to support that? It sounds implausible, like the supposed link between autism and MMR vaccine, which was proven to be BS and cost lives.Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.
One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.
Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.
One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.
Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Yes - except for the seasonal flu vaccines, that get modified and released with ultra short cycles. We can say they are mainly variants of well known vaccines, but still.
What should be the penalty for advocating torture to death which is essentially what you're doing?There shouldn't be conditions involved, except perhaps one. This whole thing is about getting it over with without overwhelming heath care. As long as there is room to spare going early may be as effective as going later but with the added benefit of being able to time your infection. You're not only flattening the curve but also load balancing to where we now we can handle it. I'm not as much advocating the idea as saying it may have its merits. Branding people as terrorists and threatening them with a tortuous death is obviously a ridiculous hyperbole fanned by mindless fear. Not everyone seems to cope equally well to being endlessly bombarded with news from every corner.
I can quite understand the attitude of someone who thinks that their personal risk profile for this disease is low and wants to get it over with. Sitting around waiting for this is like seeing the Sword of Damocles dangling over your head or waiting in the dentist's chair for the bastard to get on with it and actually pull that tooth. I'm in a high risk group, I'm 60 and I have asthma - this disease is literately an existential threat to me - but even I can feel some of that desire to "have it done and over with". Just because someone expresses that does not mean that they have a longing to catch it and become a Typhoid Mary spreading it about left right and centre or behave in any other way irresponsibly. Someone expressing their thoughts and fears is not an acceptable reason for advocating burning people to death.
Perhaps we should ship a small field hospital and some instant barracks to Gruinard Island and let folks like Maginnovision and Stray Electron go to the 'leper colony' thus created to deliberately catch it, on the understanding that, once recovered, they have to come back and volunteer for the jobs that need doing by people with immunity for a set period of time as payment for the dubious privilege of being allowed to deliberately catch it while offering safety to others from their infected selves.
[...] This fellow's attitude has been one ranging from passive aggressive to taking veiled swipes at anybody who might have brought any intelligence, informed background or actual domain expertise to the discussion. [...]
Welcome to the Internet! ;)
Back in the day, when I was setting up one of the UK's first ISPs, it attracted a slightly better calibre of interlocutor, where reasoned argument rather than the loudest and most obnoxious voice held sway. Well, some of the time. Now, where was I? Oh yes. What are you doing on my lawn young man!?! :)
Which ISP was that?
Nowadays, any forum without moderation will be overrun by pests... the best moderators help evolve pests to useful contributors. We have to allow people to be young and stupid, like we were! :D
These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.
Do you have any data/facts to support that? It sounds implausible, like the supposed link between autism and MMR vaccine, which was proven to be BS and cost lives.Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.
One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.
Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
There are a number of infections which can result in long term mental impairment, and vaccines are just impaired infections.Do you have any data/facts to support that? It sounds implausible, like the supposed link between autism and MMR vaccine, which was proven to be BS and cost lives.Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.
One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.
Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Why should it be implausible? All things involve risk, like going for a walk. Injecting attenuated/modified pathogens or parts of them into the human bloodstream doesn't exactly sound like the least risky thing one might do. Start at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_adverse_event (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_adverse_event) if you need convincing that vaccine related damage isn't "implausible".
Don't forget that vaccination is only safe because we do a lot of safety testing nowadays and that, even with that, otherwise safe vaccinations do in very rare cases cause more harm than good.
One such example is the swine flu vaccine, which caused some very strange, AFAIK still non-identified interaction with the Finnish gene pool, causing quite a few of severe cases of life-long narcolepsy on children and the young here, but almost nowhere else in the world. These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.
Of course, such cases are extremely rare, and that's the price we need to pay to have vaccinations at all; the average risk is almost zero due to all the testing, as you say.
Yes - except for the seasonal flu vaccines, that get modified and released with ultra short cycles. We can say they are mainly variants of well known vaccines, but still.
That kind of approach may end up being the best bet against Covid-19 and its future mutations...
An italian TV program from the public channel RAI 3,specialized in scientist info, told in 2015 , the "achievement " of the chinese scientists to modify the SARS virus for difusing the bats to humans and affect their respiratory tract.
https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU (https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU) Rafael Palacios ,alias "Rafapal" ,investigation journalist.
These people are still without compensation and little social security. The sad thing is, most of them were not in the risk group for the swine flu, so the vaccination, in this case, did more harm than good.
Sad. That's why the UK and US (and doubtless others) have statutory compensation schemes, to encourage vaccination that protects us all with the knowledge that the very rare cases that harm a few will be taken care of by all of us. (In theory. In practice, ...
... and vaccines are just impaired infections.
... and vaccines are just impaired infections.
Yes and no. It depends on the type of vaccine. There are basically three types of vaccine.
- Live vaccines These contain a live organism that is capable of stimulating an immune response to the thing you are vaccinating against. In turn these have two subtypes
- Related organisms. This is where an organism that is related to the one you're vaccinating against - but that is not itself disease causing - is used. The classic case is the use of cowpox to vaccinate against smallpox.
- Attenuated organisms. This introduces the actual disease causing pathogen using either a sub-strain that has been 'bred' to be non-pathogenic, or an organism that has been chemically 'attenuated' so it is still 'live' but the biochemical mechanisms of pathogenicity have been crippled.
- Killed vaccines These use the disease causing organism but it has been 'killed' stone dead so that you're just introducing its 'dead body', but the presence of the 'dead body' is still enough to induce an immune response.
- Component vaccines Just a part or parts of the organism are introduced, typically isolated surface proteins, which are still enough to train your immune system to recognise the pathogen if it actually turns up intact.
That's why I said impaired. I figured it was a vague enough term to cover all the options. :)... and vaccines are just impaired infections.
Yes and no. It depends on the type of vaccine. There are basically three types of vaccine.
- Live vaccines These contain a live organism that is capable of stimulating an immune response to the thing you are vaccinating against. In turn these have two subtypes
- Related organisms. This is where an organism that is related to the one you're vaccinating against - but that is not itself disease causing - is used. The classic case is the use of cowpox to vaccinate against smallpox.
- Attenuated organisms. This introduces the actual disease causing pathogen using either a sub-strain that has been 'bred' to be non-pathogenic, or an organism that has been chemically 'attenuated' so it is still 'live' but the biochemical mechanisms of pathogenicity have been crippled.
- Killed vaccines These use the disease causing organism but it has been 'killed' stone dead so that you're just introducing its 'dead body', but the presence of the 'dead body' is still enough to induce an immune response.
- Component vaccines Just a part or parts of the organism are introduced, typically isolated surface proteins, which are still enough to train your immune system to recognise the pathogen if it actually turns up intact.
Do you happen to know what type of vaccine the seasonal flu vaccines are?
That's why I said impaired. I figured it was a vague enough term to cover all the options. :)
While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..I don't think you'll find any relevant data. The purple areas are also the most densely populated ones.
The statements of the European Foreign Minister, Josep Borrell, make Huawei go back on its health donations."
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell)
"The article" https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es (https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es)
[...]
"Huawei will stop donating face masks to Europe after being accused of hiding political intentions
[...]
(Attachment Link)
I really don't get how some people can be such awful diplomats, and still hold high positions...I can't seem to find this news on any major news outlets or many other places at all. We have to be mindful that there's a lot of nonsense going around. I'm not saying this necessarily is, but controversial COVID-19 news is excellent material for anyone whose business model is based on clicks and views.
(Attachment Link)
Darwin award
Age 66? I think not, he'll have already spread his defective genes if he was going to.He'll unfortunately also have spread his ideas into the minds of other people.
While you're being sarky with Le Scram, do you wear PPE on a daily basis in an infection control setting, or just an industrial one? If the later, are you assuming that your expertise in one area automatically transfers to the other?
Brits PM Bojo got corvid19.
It's the first time he's done anything with a positive result.
Now, now. I wouldn't wish this on anyone except Trump.
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns
I wonder why the WHO data for the US lags other sources, like John's Hopkins. .
Are the US not sharing info in a transparent and timely manner?
(yes I guess tihis is 50% Troll and 50% serious qn)
...
While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html)
I wonder why the WHO data for the US lags other sources, like John's Hopkins. .
Are the US not sharing info in a transparent and timely manner?
I'm curious, why does Johns Hopkins always show more than CDC? I'd expect CDC to be the authority.
So I'm guessing that due to the time it takes CDC to finish its report then send it to WHO and have WHO incorporate it with all the others probably takes a day or so, and we should expect those CDC numbers to appear in tomorrow's WHO report.
I'm curious, why does Johns Hopkins always show more than CDC? I'd expect CDC to be the authority.
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.
And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.
I am going see how long I can hold my soldering iron with my hand before it is too hot for me to let go!!!!!
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.
And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.
:palm:
I am going see how long I can hold my soldering iron with my hand before it is too hot for me to let go!!!!!
Please start with it cold each time... :)
I know how we can easily point and judge, but this Christian pastor who has been fed false information through the US's 'republican media' and certain chosen US government's official claims, including those who he preaches to as a community. To no fault of his own, I'm sure he truly believed his claims. If he truly wanted to protect as many lives as possible of those who follow him who get their news from the same sources, though he is no longer among the living, he may have chosen this outcome if it warns and saves as many of his followers as possible.(Attachment Link)
Darwin award
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.
And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.
:palm:
"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
(Attachment Link)
That's the total. It's the increment (new deaths day per day) that is fairly flat and gives an almost linear progression. But at this early stage I doubt it has any relevance. Mostly these are the dead that resulted from the number of infected about two weeks earlier (as per a study on Lancet IIRC). Not enough data.
The exponential for the death is starting to kick off in these days, unfortunately.
Besides, the number of deaths is the most controversial number because each Country seem to be using a different protocol in classifying death for Covid-19. The number of infected, on the other hand, reflects the number of 'mature' cases (that require medical attention) but also depends on the number of tests done. So, it seems to me there is not a surefire metric to compare how different countries fare.
The percentage of people in ICUs does show a correlation, it seems..While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html)
Infection rates are unlikely to be the correlation, its more about control measures/restrictions being applied in each area.
I'm curious, why does Johns Hopkins always show more than CDC? I'd expect CDC to be the authority.
Until than the world owner "mutate" the Covid-19 in another pest more mortal . Today, i found a interest video of the Covid-19 origins. Regrettably, this is in italian and translated in spanish.QuoteAn italian TV program from the public channel RAI 3,specialized in scientist info, told in 2015 , the "achievement " of the chinese scientists to modify the SARS virus for difusing the bats to humans and affect their respiratory tract.
https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU (https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU) Rafael Palacios ,alias "Rafapal" ,investigation journalist.
Until than the world owner "mutate" the Covid-19 in another pest more mortal . Today, i found a interest video of the Covid-19 origins. Regrettably, this is in italian and translated in spanish.QuoteAn italian TV program from the public channel RAI 3,specialized in scientist info, told in 2015 , the "achievement " of the chinese scientists to modify the SARS virus for difusing the bats to humans and affect their respiratory tract.
https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU (https://youtu.be/YHD5bfIghNU) Rafael Palacios ,alias "Rafapal" ,investigation journalist.
Once again, Josep Borrell had to open the mouth , and fuck the situation.
"Huawei will stop donating face masks to Europe after being accused of hiding political intentions
The statements of the European Foreign Minister, Josep Borrell, make Huawei go back on its health donations."
https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell (https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fhipertextual.com%2F2020%2F03%2Fhuawei-mascarillas-europa-josep-borrell)
"The article" https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es (https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/76434/node/76434_es)
may be it is just a flat EEG :)FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.
And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.
:palm:
"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
(Attachment Link)
FYI, the reason I focus on deaths is because there are far too many unknowns, IMO, to draw any meaningful conclusions on the ultimate impact based solely on number of confirmed cases. For example, Spain and Germany have vastly different numbers of total deaths to date (4089 vs 253, respectively), but have 56k vs. 42k confirmed cases, respectively.
And in the last 2 weeks the US has had a fairly flat average death rate, which is certainly not directly proportional to the increasing # of confirmed cases.
:palm:
"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
(Attachment Link)
Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)
Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.
The number of people in ICUs does show a correlation, it seems..While looking for some info on asthma vs. covid I've come across this picture - NO2 concentration in Europe. Would be interesting to compare covid data with the map..https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/satellite-images-emissions-climate-crisis-coronavirus-europe-map-a9426436.html)
Infection rates are unlikely to be the correlation, its more about control measures/restrictions being applied in each area.
Are we failing basic maths now? That graph does seem to show a fairly flatish death rate. That's a cumulative deaths graph, death rate is d deaths / dt
Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)
Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.
here is an interesting article on the subject (unfortunately for some reason the graphics do not appear in the google translated page)
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fsalute%2Fmalattie_infettive%2F20_marzo_27%2Fstudio-ispi-ecco-qual-vera-letalita-covid-19-italia-b95d19cc-7029-11ea-82c1-be2d421e9f6b.shtml (https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fsalute%2Fmalattie_infettive%2F20_marzo_27%2Fstudio-ispi-ecco-qual-vera-letalita-covid-19-italia-b95d19cc-7029-11ea-82c1-be2d421e9f6b.shtml)
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.
I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows.
...
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.
As I described in my post, I chose to define "rate" in this case as "new deaths per day". And as I showed in my chart (but apparently some didn't read), the number of new deaths each day has been fairly flat, on average, jumping between 50 to 200 or so new deaths each day.
I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows.
...
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.
You honestly still believe that the near-term progression in the USA cannot be predicted? Wow.
:palm:
I'd also caution folks to try to avoid predicting what will happen. Nobody knows.
...
Or at least allow the possibility that you might be wrong.
You honestly still believe that the near-term progression in the USA cannot be predicted? Wow.
:palm:
As usual, I provide data and you provide facepalms and unsupported, handwaving predictions.
"Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting"
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html)
"Fairly flat" isn't how I'd define the US Covid-19 death rate, given the graphs compiled by these folks:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
That's the total. It's the increment (new deaths day per day) that is fairly flat and gives an almost linear progression. But at this early stage I doubt it has any relevance. Mostly these are the dead that resulted from the number of infected about two weeks earlier (as per a study on Lancet IIRC). Not enough data.
The exponential for the death is starting to kick off in these days, unfortunately.
...
rather than believe those running around in a panic saying we'll all die tomorrow. :scared:
To check the situation in Portugal
https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/
As I wrote before, it's like watching frogs being slowly boiled in water. They swim so happily until they are nearly done.
boiled frogs is a myth
After reviewing the numbers so far, I tried to come up with what I personally think is a reasonable ballpark of how I personally am expecting this virus to proceed in the US. Now, before you jump in and tell me I'm wrong, don't bother. I agree with you. I'm wrong.That is highly speculative. If you look at Italy (Wikipedia has daily numbers for cases, recoveries and deaths for many countries) then you can see they are managing to flatten the daily increase of cases and number of deaths (which seem to be correlated to the flattening of daily cases is likely not due to less testing). Looking at the new cases and deaths in the US then the number is still rising rapidly. Also large parts of the US don't seem to be locked down (yet) so the Covid19 virus is spreading there freely. I've seen articles estimating the number of deaths in the US ranging from 450k to 1.5M. Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.
The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally. Based on present WHO data on how it's transpired so far in the world.
My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.
Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.
A pedant writes:Quoteboiled frogs is a myth
ignoring the possibility that it's also a metaphor, thus missing the wood for the trees :)
The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally.
Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.
According to a Dutch newspaper Dutch doctors observed 70% to 80% of the people ending up in the ICU are fat. Ofcourse this is just an observation but could hint to other risk factors besides age.Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.
Probably here is something of interest: https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/ (https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/)
Don't know how accurate the numbers are, but you can check de population distribution by ages in the world
...
Again, I admit this is all wrong. And if you disagree, feel free to post your own predictions, with numbers and rationale and such like I did. Should be interesting.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Instead of all of us inventing data and predictions, take a look at how it's done...
Interesting. Did not know what a pangolin was until I looked it up. Ironic that it is use for traditional Chinese medicine.Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.
It is high unlikely to die out. It is so wide spread now that it will probably become just like the other human coronaviruses, hopefully with just the same flu-like symptoms once we get herd immunity (via vaccine).
BTW the most recent hypothesis is that pangolins were the intermediate hosts beween bats and humans (https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jproteome.0c00129).
...
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?
The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally.
If it's purely for personal consumption, as you stress so heavily, why are you bothering other people with it? Is this a version of "stop hitting my hand with your face?
Interesting. Did not know what a pangolin was until I looked it up. Ironic that it is use for traditional Chinese medicine.
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?
On March 7, her father, Claudio Travelli, 60, was driving a food delivery truck all around northern Italy. The next day, he developed a fever and flu-like symptoms. His wife had run a fever in recent days, and so he called his family doctor, who told him to take a common Italian fever reducer and rest up.
For much of the prior month, Italian officials had sent mixed messages about the virus.
On Feb. 19, some 40,000 people from Bergamo, a province of about a million people in the region of Lombardy, traveled 30 miles to Milan to watch a Champions League soccer game between Atalanta and the Spanish team Valencia. (The mayor of Bergamo, Giorgio Gori, this week called the match “a strong accelerator of contagion.”) Mr. Travelli and his wife didn’t take the threat of the virus seriously back then, their daughter said, “because it wasn’t sold as a grave thing.”
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html)It's behind a login wall in order to harvest e-mail addresses to spam. Can you paste the relevant part of the text?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html)It's behind a login wall in order to harvest e-mail addresses to spam. Can you paste the relevant part of the text?
...
looking for real numbers and perhaps a bit of hope.
My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.
...
Present confirmed cases in US are probably around 80k, and if we assume a ballpark death rate of around 3% that means as a minimum we can expect an additional 2,000+ deaths, raising the total from the present 1,000 to 3,000.
...
So given all that, I personally won't be surprised if by end of April the US sees a total death rate about where Italy is today (ie, maybe something like 8x what the US total deaths are today, or somewhere between 5,000 to 10,000 total), and after that I'm expecting the virus to follow the path of SARS and other past viruses that kinda died out.
I hope the fun was worth the pain.Unfortunately there are some cunts around.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)
I hope the fun was worth the pain.It's a stupid thing to do and I understand the need to show there's no tolerance for these kinds of things, but that's still pretty harsh.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)
I hope the fun was worth the pain.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)
I hope the fun was worth the pain.It's a stupid thing to do and I understand the need to show there's no tolerance for these kinds of things, but that's still pretty harsh.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html)
I think he deserves time in jail. The police officer and probably other co-workers my have to be some time in quarantine and run Corona tests, not being able to work, and until the results came, preferably stay way from the family.I don't disagree but a year in prison is a lot. It doesn't sound like much but it in all likelihood means losing your job, house and probably relationship and part of your support network. It's a life changing reset for most. Being stern with idiots isn't a terrible idea but heavy-handedly destroying even more lives doesn't sound appropriate.
EDIT: Spanhish police in action: https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/ (https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/)
Same can be said about heavy fines. Here under the Quarantine Act one can be fined up to $750,000. Tough times require tough measures, it is what it is.Though times require effective measures. Being stern is one thing but utterly destroying people serves no one.
If someone is idiotic enough to spit or cough on someone the person likely doesn't have much of a life to begin with. One of the people they sentenced to do jail time in the NL was a homeless person (he didn't die but is no longer homeless). Let's not forget that Covid19 is a potentially deadly decease; not something to make fun of. Especially when it involves public servants doing their best to keep the country clean and safe.I think he deserves time in jail. The police officer and probably other co-workers my have to be some time in quarantine and run Corona tests, not being able to work, and until the results came, preferably stay way from the family.I don't disagree but a year in prison is a lot. It doesn't sound like much but it in all likelihood means losing your job, house and probably relationship and part of your support network. It's a life changing reset for most. Being stern with idiots isn't a terrible idea but heavy-handedly destroying even more lives doesn't sound appropriate.
EDIT: Spanhish police in action: https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/ (https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/)
Baton-wielding police in India have been filmed beating people breaking the coronavirus lockdown rules and making some offenders do physical punishments
If someone is idiotic enough to spit or cough on someone the person likely doesn't have much of a life to begin with. One of the people they sentenced to do jail time in the NL was a homeless person (he didn't die but is no longer homeless). Let's not forget that Covid19 is a potentially deadly decease; not something to make fun of. Especially when it involves public servants doing their best to keep the country clean and safe.Running a red light poses a much more real danger and we don't lock people up for a year for that either. I'm not even suggesting to not do anything about such behaviour and understand that examples have to be made, it's just that we shouldn't go overboard. People are scared and emotional but that doesn't mean we should lose all common sense and proportion.
I think you are dead right (!)
Confirmed cases is a poor metric for comparison, as it depends on testing capacity - and contact tracing capacity to find cases to test based on known cases.
And there are many people who don't have symptoms - combined with people how have minor symptoms -so there could be big hidden clusters of people who are not tested.
Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)
Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.
Personally, the metric I would use is the total number of deaths - for any cause. Compare with the same period of the previous years and, unless there is some other killer disease going on - it will give you a measure of how lethal this Covid-19 is.
Another metric is the saturation of hospitals and ICUs.
News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection.... This is advice given to hospital staff.... This advice explains how to prevent the virus.... So please share with family, friends and your work colleagues.
In my inbox from a mate:When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?
News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection
All,
This is advice given to hospital staff.
This is an internal email for RBH staff: Virus detection COVID-19.
This advice explains how to prevent the virus. So please share with family, friends and your work colleagues
The COVID-19 infection does cause a dry and rough cough. The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. These symptoms can last between 3 and 4 days.
The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 – 6 days. Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. There may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.
Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning:
Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection.
It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.
Prevention:
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.
Therefore, hot drinks such as infusions, broths or simply hot water should be consumed abundantly during the day. These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest. Avoid drinking ice water or drinks with ice cubes. No ice with the rum lol
Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes.
WHY?
Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.
The sun’s UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you.
The Coronavirus has a large size (diameter 400-500 nanometres) so facemasks are needed in daily life. If an infected person sneezes near you, stay 10 feet (3.3 meters) away to allow the virus fall to the ground and prevent it from falling on you.
When the virus is on hard surfaces, it survives about 12 hours, therefore when hard surfaces such as doors, appliances, railings, etc are touched, hands should be washed thoroughly and/or disinfected with alcoholic gel. The virus can live nested in clothes and tissues between 6 and 12 hours. Common detergents can kill it.
Things that cannot be washed should be exposed to the SUN and the virus will die.
The transmission of the virus usually occurs by direct infection, touching fabrics, tissues or materials on which the virus is present. Washing your hands is essential. The virus survives on our hands for only about 10 minutes. In that time many things can happen, rubbing the eyes, touching the nose or lips. This allows the virus to enter your throat. Therefore, for your good and the good of all, wash your hands very often and disinfect them. You can gargle with disinfectant solutions ie Listerine or Hydrogen Peroxide, that eliminates or minimises the amount of virus that can enter the throat. Doing so removes the virus before it goes down to the trachea and then to the lung
Disinfect things touched often: cell phone, keyboard, mouse, car steering wheel, door handles, etc.
Stay safe guys.
In my inbox from a mate:
News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection
All,
This is advice given to hospital staff.
This is an internal email for RBH staff: Virus detection COVID-19.
Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes.
WHY?
Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/drill-powered-perestalic-pump-for-covid-patients/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/drill-powered-perestalic-pump-for-covid-patients/)We don't have enough sketchy ventilator ideas yet?
There was a similar one that told people to breath in air from a hair dryer since the heat would kill the virus. That email is garbage even if it doesn't mention hair dryers and has about a 2% chance of coming from a legitimate source. However you should keep hydrated since dry mucous membranes are more susceptible to infection.Agreed. Don't start spreading fake-news even if it looks legit. The best lie is close to the truth.
When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.
The sun’s UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you.
In my inbox from a mate:When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?
/----/
It's funny seeing people getting so scared of the virus, while positive quarantine results have been seen in not only China, but also Korea, Japan, Singapore and recently Italy.
I've just got discharged from a hospital that also treats COVID19 patients for a tonsillectomy procedure. Not that I wanted it to be done at this time, but the rapid onset of bad tonsil and lymph node inflammation just drove me mad.
For the past week, I had half an hour of walk twice a day around the hospital, passing the fever clinic entrance every lap.
Just use your PPE, stay away from the crowds, and wash your hands more frequently that usual. Then there's no worries.
FYI, I'm in Shenzhen, one of the largest port city in China handling tens of thousands of incoming people from worldwide, Hong Kong and through Hong Kong.
If everyone stays away from the crowds for two weeks, there would not be a need to vaccines and monthly long economy pauses.
When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?
We can quibble about whether is virus is 'alive' or not, but in material intended for general consumption I don't have a problem with people using the terminology and would have a problem if people used convoluted language to get around calling a virus 'live' rather than aiming for comprehension by all and sundry.
Where I get a bit antsy about this is:QuoteThe virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.
Really? So what's all the fuss about then? I doubt any bit of my body worth infecting is below 27C - how then does it survive in humans? According to my IR thermometer I don't have a single bit of exposed skin below 30ºC - I ought to be able to kill it by touching it (which we know is rubbish). When I see rubbish like that either somebody has been criminally careless and transposed 27ºC with 72ºC or alternatively it casts the whole 'official' origin into doubt.
andQuoteThe sun’s UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you.
Waaay too folksy for a considered bit of writing by a medic. And "and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you"? Both ungrammatical and a change of subject to "good for you" in the same sentence about killing the virus. Smacks of 'secretary' level education. A medic would only advocate vitamin D and zinc supplementation in cases of likely deficiency (the former unlikely in summer).
There's other stuff in there that sounds like folk advice rather than medical advice mixed up with sound medical advice of the kind that you could just pick up by listening. I suspect a round robin email from someone in the hospital rather than official hospital guidance for staff. If its bona fides prove true, that would be worrying.
If everyone stays away from the crowds for two weeks, there would not be a need to vaccines and monthly long economy pauses.
I'm not scared, just concerned. I'm a mid thirties male on oxycodone for a current lung issue and I have severe asthma. If I caught it I very well may not make it.
Sorry to hear about that. Please don't get me wrong. I'm not being specific to anyone. Just don't understand why many otherwise perfectly healthy people being so concerned.
The difference is intent. He wanted to scare the police officer and the example you've provided isn't clear cut. I ran a red light yesterday because the stupid traffic light shouldn't have been red. I stopped, waited for a couple of minutes, until I noticed that all of the other junctions were clear, then preceded slowly, with caution. The same traffic light always does this: waits for ages on red, when it should be green, holding the traffic up. It's harming others by increasing pollution and CO2 levels and needs to be reprogrammed.If someone is idiotic enough to spit or cough on someone the person likely doesn't have much of a life to begin with. One of the people they sentenced to do jail time in the NL was a homeless person (he didn't die but is no longer homeless). Let's not forget that Covid19 is a potentially deadly decease; not something to make fun of. Especially when it involves public servants doing their best to keep the country clean and safe.Running a red light poses a much more real danger and we don't lock people up for a year for that either. I'm not even suggesting to not do anything about such behaviour and understand that examples have to be made, it's just that we shouldn't go overboard. People are scared and emotional but that doesn't mean we should lose all common sense and proportion.
Moreover it is being reported that chloroquine is actually successful because it is an ionophore of zinc, ie it increases its concentration in the cells.
Please accept the official advice from Boris.
QuotePlease accept the official advice from Boris.
Worked for him!
Oh, wait...
I think I have covid-19 at the moment. Relatively mild so far but indicators are persistent cough, fever (now gone), all over aches and pains. I’m considering most of the company I work for had Covid-19 as well as we lost approximately half of the staff during feb with same class of symptoms.
I think I have covid-19 at the moment. Relatively mild so far but indicators are persistent cough, fever (now gone), all over aches and pains. I’m considering most of the company I work for had Covid-19 as well as we lost approximately half of the staff during feb with same class of symptoms.
Right before Christmas our management team came sick after a meeting in the US. My boss told me that one guy was sick in the room and after few days, one by one the other participants got sick with the same symptoms; fever, muscle and joints aches, cough, chills, terrible sweating. Few days after Christmas my daughter an I got sick. I had flu few times in my life but this was different. In general flu comes with runny nose and congestion. We didn’t have any of these. Instead we had scratchy wind pipes, fever, chills, muscle and joint aches so intense that I haven’t felt before, sweating, dry cough that persisted for about a week after the fever subsided.
So does it mean that we had it. It was definitely something different than what I knew.
Is it possible that it was here long before we knew it?
Chloroquine is nasty shit. Even if it is effective it should be last resort. Can cause permanent cardiac damage. Also on top of that so can Covid-19 apparently. Smells like a damage amplifier.Every treatment carries an associated risk. Even being put on a ventilator carries a significant risk, because it involves being sedated, administered muscle relaxants and lots of tubes being poked into various orifices.
I think I have covid-19 at the moment. Relatively mild so far but indicators are persistent cough, fever (now gone), all over aches and pains. I’m considering most of the company I work for had Covid-19 as well as we lost approximately half of the staff during feb with same class of symptoms. I get the feeling this will turn into something slightly worse than the usual flu season in body count even if it looks bad now. Long term economic and social damage will have a higher cost to society.Covid-19 is worse than flu because considerably herd immunity already exists for influenza, whilst Covid-19 is new. If the figure of 4% of a bad flu year is correct, then that's pretty bad, because the first death here was only the 5th of March, only 20 days ago and the number of new deaths has being roughly doubling every three days.
In U.K. we are at 4% of a bad flu year’s body count and the age distribution is about the same. I suspect the death rate will level out soon. I may eat my hat there but it seems a sensible assertion to make.
Is it possible that it [Covid-19] was here long before we knew it?
Too many people have a poor grasp of the term "recovering from a disease", and treat it like it means everything works out great. The reality is recovering just means you didn't die. The long term effects are frequently quite severe.Chloroquine is nasty shit. Even if it is effective it should be last resort. Can cause permanent cardiac damage. Also on top of that so can Covid-19 apparently. Smells like a damage amplifier.Every treatment carries an associated risk. Even being put on a ventilator carries a significant risk, because it involves being sedated, administered muscle relaxants and lots of tubes being poked into various orifices.
*About the zinc issue:
Taking zinc is highly recommended, as it has strong antiviral activity. Moreover it is being reported that chloroquine is actually successful because it is an ionophore of zinc, ie it increases its concentration in the cells.
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001176 (https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001176)
Taking zinc is highly recommended, as it has strong antiviral activity.
Sure, and my own mom has asthma. But isn't it more productive to follow health care authorities' recommendations than to waste energy worrying and discussing this all day long?
Everyone will try to postpone drastic actions until they run out of other options. Nobody wants to risk their arse calling Wolf. Either way they will be roasted by media. For wasting money or lives.
Everyone will try to postpone drastic actions until they run out of other options. Nobody wants to risk their arse calling Wolf. Either way they will be roasted by media. For wasting money or lives.
Everyone will try to postpone drastic actions until they run out of other options. Nobody wants to risk their arse calling Wolf. Either way they will be roasted by media. For wasting money or lives.
Agreed. This is a very tough kind of decision to make. And we have no sure way of predicting for sure how a given virus will act and spread until it has already done so significantly - by definition, acting early would be acting on non-significant data, which no one would really agree with. It's easy to agree with early actions when it's way past early. It's not when we have little inconclusive data.
Sure some countries have waited for too long even when we started to have significant data, but it's obvious we're always going to lag by a few weeks with viruses like this. Otherwise we would end up taking drastic measures every time people start sneezing in the streets.
Always easy to say what should have been done, rarely easy to say what should *be* done.
I am lucky to live near the black forest in Germany. A river with green shores passes about 200m from our office and we can walk the dog for hours without meeting anybody. Absolutely no reason to complain.
Instead, every Country is looking at the demise of their neighbors, possibly trying to take advantage of their economic downfall, instead of deploying measures to prevent this mutual exploitation. Hollywood will make "The Big short 2", and everybody will wonder why it was allowed to happen - again.
(all of this in addition to the loss of jobs and company foreclosure due to the lockdown).
Instead, every Country is looking at the demise of their neighbors, possibly trying to take advantage of their economic downfall, instead of deploying measures to prevent this mutual exploitation.
I am lucky to live near the black forest in Germany. A river with green shores passes about 200m from our office and we can walk the dog for hours without meeting anybody. Absolutely no reason to complain.
You are lucky.
Over here, getting out for just exercising is now restricted to 1 hour and 1 km max. from your house. For people living in urban areas, that's basically just going around your block or something. And except for disabled people, in 1 hour you're going to pretty much run in circles several times in a radius of 1 km. Sweet.
I don't know if that's entirely true, but the situation is still enlightening. Just look at how we manage the crisis on a european level? Looks like every country is trying to fight on their own, even getting help from chinese doctors. Where's the EU? Where's the unity? Where is the european collaboration? Are EU members currently better off than the others helping the latter in any way? I dunno. I may have missed something, but lately, the only time I've heard from the EU was because of this stupid comment from a representative that drove Huawei off. That sounds certainly helpful. ::)There is a lot of coordination and cooperation going on, especially when it concerns medical matters. Few people are interested in making a PR show out of it right now.
Really, i don't understand the people that can't stay in home during a month without turning themselves crazy. I am a fortunate person because i live in a chalet with a forest at front.Many people seem horrified to be alone with themselves or their thoughts. Every minute needs to be filled with distractions. When those distractions are gone they may not like what they find.
I don't know what they would do if they would be in submarine.
There are many people of the opposite kind, they feel well mostly stay home in normal times, so this quarantine is not a big deal to them.Really, i don't understand the people that can't stay in home during a month without turning themselves crazy. I am a fortunate person because i live in a chalet with a forest at front.Many people seem horrified to be alone with themselves or their thoughts. Every minute needs to be filled with distractions. When those distractions are gone they may not like what they find.
I don't know what they would do if they would be in submarine.
Where's the EU? Where's the unity? Where is the european collaboration?
Today, the Office for Civil Rights (OCR) at the U.S Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is issuing a bulletin to ensure that entities covered by civil rights authorities keep in mind their obligations under laws and regulations that prohibit discrimination on the basis of race, color, national origin, disability, age, sex, and exercise of conscience and religion in HHS-funded programs, including in the provision of health care services during COVID-19.
There are many people of the opposite kind, they feel well mostly stay home in normal times, so this quarantine is not a big deal to them.I don't think those are the people vodka was writing about.
No triage allowed?
My strictly non-emotional head says that if there has to be a choice, the one most likely to survive should get the goodies. I guess that in many cases, that would mean the old being discarded, and that would sure look like discrimination. Certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that choice (actually, wouldn't want to be making any choice along those lines).It's a bit insulting to think doctors wouldn't do everything and anything to avoid having to make those choices and wouldn't optimize their resources as far as they humanly can. Triage isn't a choice but a necessity, if and when it comes to that.
It's a bit insulting to think doctors wouldn't do everything and anything to avoid having to make those choices
QuoteNo triage allowed?
My strictly non-emotional head says that if there has to be a choice, the one most likely to survive should get the goodies. I guess that in many cases, that would mean the old being discarded, and that would sure look like discrimination. Certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that choice (actually, wouldn't want to be making any choice along those lines).
Yes, it would be insulting to think that, which is why I didn't imply that or say that in any way. I'm surprised you did.I didn't. The original OCR release linked appears to do so.
Well the forecast in the US is 100-200K deaths and millions infected. May not be an issue everywhere but the experts seem to think it will be an issue in many places. Looking at new York de Blasio kept telling people don't worry(go to bars, restaurants, theaters, hang out) before finally shutting down the 15th. New York will probably be the worst hit city in the world in all metrics.Apparently Brazil's Bolsonaro doesn't believe he should be taking measures so Brazil may become New York on a massive scale.
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/28/de-blasios-coronavirus-crisis-1269480 (https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/03/28/de-blasios-coronavirus-crisis-1269480)
I agree. I just hope the vultures don't come out after combing through reports to find people to sue.
??? How many Italians out of those hundreds of ones dying every day the Germans "fly in" ?
80% of test kits from China show false results
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937 (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937)
My strictly non-emotional head says that if there has to be a choice, the one most likely to survive should get the goodies. I guess that in many cases, that would mean the old being discarded, and that would sure look like discrimination. Certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that choice (actually, wouldn't want to be making any choice along those lines).It's a bit insulting to think doctors wouldn't do everything and anything to avoid having to make those choices and wouldn't optimize their resources as far as they humanly can. Triage isn't a choice but a necessity, if and when it comes to that.
Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.
Actually, from the first case traced back to 12.1 to the general mass to realize sh!t happened, it took us a good 7 weeks. Things started to smell fishy on around 1.20 and quickly escalated to full lock down of Wuhan and prepared lock down of many other cities. Until all measures were taken, it took us at least 8 good weeks to respond.
The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.
So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time. This is a delay thing. As we are seeing, Italy, then some other EU countries, then the US, are using a lot of emergency laws to make things happen now, and more countries will certainly jump on the same wagon.
World leaders are alike. They tend to cover it up, try to ride it out, until things go wrong and they go berserk and declare a full scale war against it.
This is the hero we need!
Looks like roll-out of ELISA tests for corona immune globulin is going well. My doctor called this morning to check on us and mentioned we can get tested after we resurface from isolation on Friday.That sounds good. I'd like to be tested too and hopefully these tests will become more widespread as production increases. I had a weird kind of flu earlier this month.
My insurance doesn't cover the test, but it's only €80 or so, money I'm definitely going to spend.
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.True. I have found this graph together with a test (but these are sold to doctors only) showing the concentration of anti-bodies versus time.
Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.
True. I have found this graph together with a test (but these are sold to doctors only) showing the concentration of anti-bodies versus time.That would also explain what appears to be patients getting reinfected shortly after seeming to have recovered, even though experts consider that highly unlikely. (Testing errors, of course, can also explain it.)
(https://www.sensitest.nl/foto/producten/g_sensitest-corona-test4.jpg)
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.
Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.
Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.
The self tests are "lateral flow" tests. They're not very sensitive, but cheap. The ELISA tests being rolled out now over here are lab tests. You provide a blood sample and get a result a few days later. For early diagnoses, the PCR tests are still the only option.
Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.
Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.
The self tests are "lateral flow" tests. They're not very sensitive, but cheap. The ELISA tests being rolled out now over here are lab tests. You provide a blood sample and get a result a few days later. For early diagnoses, the PCR tests are still the only option.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6)
Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.
That would also explain what appears to be patients getting reinfected shortly after seeming to have recovered, even though experts consider that highly unlikely. (Testing errors, of course, can also explain it.)As far as I understand many of those cases occurred in China where people stuffed themselves full of suppressants, appeared to recover and went about their business and crashed again later. This may have triggered the instituted ban on suppressants.
Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.
Actually, from the first case traced back to 12.1 to the general mass to realize sh!t happened, it took us a good 7 weeks. Things started to smell fishy on around 1.20 and quickly escalated to full lock down of Wuhan and prepared lock down of many other cities. Until all measures were taken, it took us at least 8 good weeks to respond.
The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.
So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time. This is a delay thing. As we are seeing, Italy, then some other EU countries, then the US, are using a lot of emergency laws to make things happen now, and more countries will certainly jump on the same wagon.
World leaders are alike. They tend to cover it up, try to ride it out, until things go wrong and they go berserk and declare a full scale war against it.
You are right. But some governments are also infused with a mixture of with foolishness and stupidity, as well.
This virus fiasco in Australia could have been avoided with agile and proactive government. Ours allowed several planeloads of travellers from Wuhan out onto the streets after the virus was already out of control in Wuhan.
Then we have the Ruby Princess fiasco where NSW Health allowed 2,700 off the cruise ship just a couple of weeks ago. Today there are hundreds infected from this ship.
The NSW Health hypocrite is beating his chest saying anyone caught breaking the rules would be fined. He should be put under arrest.
Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. :palm:
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.
Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.
The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.
So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time.
...
Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown ...
Wife heard it on the news today but not heard any confirmation on the 6pm news. :-//...
Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown ...
Sorry @tautech... Source?
I cannot find any info in mainstream media.
99% of Australia is barren wasteland with close to zero population. Population density is not that much different in areas where people actually live.https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6)
Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.
Doubt it. Germany has several times the population, so even if the tests/million is higher, the number of people available to be infected is smaller. Especially if you factor in the much higher population density in Germany. Australia is BIG.
While you have a point, 99% is an exaggeration, nor does that change the raw population discrepancy. So I'm going to have to disagree with you there:99% of Australia is barren wasteland with close to zero population. Population density is not that much different in areas where people actually live.https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6)
Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.
Doubt it. Germany has several times the population, so even if the tests/million is higher, the number of people available to be infected is smaller. Especially if you factor in the much higher population density in Germany. Australia is BIG.
One can drive from anywhere to anywhere in Germany in 8 hours or less, not to mention the 7 or 8 Schengen countries that have land borders. Australia only has sea or air borders, and driving times are often measured in days, not hours. Natural isolation, in other words.
Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. :palm:You are comparing apples to oranges. Cuba sent doctors, Russia sent doctors and disinfecting equipment and personnel. Any boots on the ground from France?
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.
This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)
So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.
This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)
So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.
There are no strong people in the UK, all fat? In numbers I'm obese, in life I'm not... Where would that leave me?
A bit of light entertainment about the truth of the corona virus brought to you by our sponsors the local chapter of the Illuminati :-DD...
An ex-electronics engineer acquaintance, whom I went to uni with decades ago, left the profession because "electronics engineers are puppets of the Jewish run banks". He was a good analogue designer but always lacked common sense. He left Melbourne a couple of years ago and became a prepper in a remote part of Victoria because "everyone else is going to be killed in the impending apocalypse". He is a strong Illuminati believer which raises the flag that he is of unsound mind.
He called me about a week ago and said he was enlightened with "clues" about the corona virus. Here is what he said:
1. The Chinese government engineered this virus and unleashed as a weapon against the West.
2. The Illuminati and the Chinese government are in a joint venture to decrease the world population from 7 billion to 500 million. They are carefully regulating the virus spread to meet their target number within two years.
3. The Chinese government wants to kill their old people because they are past their use-by date and are too expensive to keep alive.
4. The governments of the world want everyone to use tap and go debit cards cards rather than using cash to avoid the virus. This is a ploy for the governments to outlaw cash and only allow electronic transfers, so that the Illuminati will eventually control everyone using one-world government.
5. The governments will eventually use their military means to cull the excess populations.
Could he be right :-//?
Seriously, this guy is a harmless lunatic with few friends, but he is not dangerous unlike some Illuminati believers like James Gargsoulas.
The US’s top infectious disease expert said that a broad use of masks is being considered during the coronavirus pandemic, once the supply of masks is sufficient for health care workers.
We can see in our neighborhood that human civilization has turned into something very fragile. Many people are following some strange fantasies and feelings instead of using their brains. I'd guess on the long run about 30 % of the population would rather commit suicide instead of adapting to the new situation.
Regards, Dieter
Personally, the phrase "a mask doesn't help"
This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)
So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.
If you read back you'll see that I am a 'mask is better than nowt' person, but I have to take task with you on the grounds that your quote isn't what the other side's argument is. What they are (or were) suggesting is that a mask can make matters worse. Sure, it might work a bit, but in doing so it increases the risk of infection (via your fiddling with it) so overall it is better not to have one.
I wrote 'face masks'! :palm:Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. :palm:You are comparing apples to oranges. Cuba sent doctors, Russia sent doctors and disinfecting equipment and personnel. Any boots on the ground from France?
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.
BMI is the most stupid number ever invented. It presumes very low muscle and bone mass i.e. it presumes that most of the body weight comes from body fat..But it doesn't mean it is meaningless. It is a good measure for the average person. There are other methods too with their pros and cons. AFAIK the WHO has a method which uses the circumfence of your waiste, sex and age to say you are overweight or not.
US Confirmed: 174kRest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.
US Population: 327m
Percentage: 0.05%
World Confirmed: 826k
World Population: 7.53b
Percentage: 0.01%
For perspective. Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected.
Why I am so angry at so much of my country’s top leadership for the Covid-19 response, why I believe that I am right to be angry and why I am not going to forget what has happened and what has not happened.....................:-+
My main point is that the 'experts' are now moving the goalposts so just "hide and watch" (as the saying goes) as their arguments will change regarding the use of face masks.Well, the experts over here say masks are useless (do more harm than good) in the hands of the general public and people should also refrain from making masks themselves. IMHO you have to see this in the light of culture and how well people will adhere to lockdown and distancing rules. If people don't adhere to lockdown / distancing rules then wearing masks may be better than nothing. Also how and where the mask is worn matters. It is still cold in Europe so a mask will get wet in seconds when worn outside. In some places it seems they hand people masks when entering a shop and throw the mask away when exiting the shop.
US Confirmed: 174kRest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.
US Population: 327m
Percentage: 0.05%
World Confirmed: 826k
World Population: 7.53b
Percentage: 0.01%
For perspective. Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected.
..
When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.
A woman charged with terroristic threats for allegedly coughing and spitting on produce, meat and other merchandise at a Pennsylvania grocery store earlier this week was arraigned Thursday in the back of a patrol car to curb the potential threat of spreading the coronavirus.
..
When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.
Terrorists attacking groceries.. :P
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/ (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/)
..
When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.
Terrorists attacking groceries.. :P
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/ (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/)
I do wish people would stop devaluing the word "terrorism" by using it in connection with things that are merely criminal/stupid/whatever. There's a big hint in the word, if the action being spoken about wasn't intended to cause capitulation by a government/group of people to some demand by inspiring fear or terror in the general populace then it's not terrorism. For something to be terrorism it has to have a political element and a "causing widespread fear" element, anything else is mere criminality. The phrase "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" could not be applied to this stupid woman.
For perspective. Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected.
I suppose it could be argued that people are terrified of Covid-19, so infecting food would it would cause fear and terror. At the very least she should be done for criminal damage, but making people believe they can catch a potentially deadly illness is more serious...
When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.
Terrorists attacking groceries.. :P
https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/ (https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-woman-charged-with-contaminating-35k-worth-food-pennsylvania-grocery-store/GHN6VBJ24NEJPN4WZY5FP7FSAM/)
I do wish people would stop devaluing the word "terrorism" by using it in connection with things that are merely criminal/stupid/whatever. There's a big hint in the word, if the action being spoken about wasn't intended to cause capitulation by a government/group of people to some demand by inspiring fear or terror in the general populace then it's not terrorism. For something to be terrorism it has to have a political element and a "causing widespread fear" element, anything else is mere criminality. The phrase "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" could not be applied to this stupid woman.
I'm not sure about the rest of the world but around here it so far seems to be terror type charges for corona people threatening and causing havoc. I don't know if they'll revise the charges if they find something that fits better or they're just trying to make examples out of people. So while I'd agree about overuse of terror(ist/ism) it's more of a legal thing in the US right now as far as these covid cases go.
I suppose it could be argued that people are terrified of Covid-19, so infecting food would it would cause fear and terror. At the very least she should be done for criminal damage, but making people believe they can catch a potentially deadly illness is more serious.
A woman charged with terroristic threats for allegedly coughing and spitting on produce, meat and other merchandise at a Pennsylvania grocery store..If it was something really "terroristic" there wouldn't be such low cost bail set, imho..
..She was booked into the Luzerne County Jail with bail set at $50,000.
Well, the experts over here say masks are useless (do more harm than good) in the hands of the general public and people should also refrain from making masks themselves.
IMHO you have to see this in the light of culture and how well people will adhere to lockdown and distancing rules.
If people don't adhere to lockdown / distancing rules then wearing masks may be better than nothing.
Also how and where the mask is worn matters.
It is still cold in Europe so a mask will get wet in seconds when worn outside.
In some places it seems they hand people masks when entering a shop and throw the mask away when exiting the shop.
One can drive from anywhere to anywhere in Germany in 8 hours or less, not to mention the 7 or 8 Schengen countries that have land borders. Australia only has sea or air borders, and driving times are often measured in days, not hours. Natural isolation, in other words.
True, but people in Australia do travel and it doesn't take much to spark an outbreak in the densely populated areas.
But I was going for something else, not for absolute numbers: Australia, like Germany, is more likely to exhibit the true fatality rate in reporting, since due to the massive testing they're likely to also detect the mild cases and add them to the statistic early.
Rest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems. At the extreme end they are single use:
Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems.
QuoteFor perspective. Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected.
For perspective, "confirmed" doesn't = survived. A number of those infected are going to die.l
Actually, for perspective, it turns out that 50% of the intubated infected here in the UK won't make it out of ICU.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM)
This is sort of an interesting take on the whole coronavirus thing here in the US, just ignore the title.
Rest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems. At the extreme end they are single use:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demilitarization_Protective_Ensemble
Hazmat suits are generally both watertight and have breathing gas supplied:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazmat_suit
What the media calls "hazmat" is nothing more than common dustproof/spashproof coveralls:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleanroom_suit
Those of my generation grew up seeing the USA as the immensely practical "can do" country, who could take on any disaster properly, & prevail.
We saw that start to come apart with Hurricane Katrina, & it is worse with this crisis.
What the hell happened, USA?
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems.
That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.A good example but have you tried buying one? Plenty of controlled products are advertised on online stores, but it doesn't mean they will sell to the general public. Also thats only the suit shell, still plenty of other components and procedures required.
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD
that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now
The Republicans are the government---it's on them, no matter how they wriggle.
The Coalition government in Australia, had a very slow response to the huge fires late last year, & weren't that fast this time, but compared to the USA, their performance was stellar..
Once they set up a National Cabinet with the States, (of which many were of the other political persuasion), things started to happen in a hurry.
From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!
From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".
The argument that they were "distracted by impeachment" doesn't wash, either, as Bill Clinton was able to deal with important issues during his impeachment, & Richard Nixon did a lot of important diplomatic work, including the beginning of normalised relations with China, & the extrication of the USA from Vietnam, whilst under the shadow of possible impeachment.
Those of my generation grew up seeing the USA as the immensely practical "can do" country, who could take on any disaster properly, & prevail.
We saw that start to come apart with Hurricane Katrina, & it is worse with this crisis.
What the hell happened, USA?
Those of my generation grew up seeing the USA as the immensely practical "can do" country, who could take on any disaster properly, & prevail.
We saw that start to come apart with Hurricane Katrina, & it is worse with this crisis.
What the hell happened, USA?
the same hell that happened all over the world
that is what happens when the freedom of the market comes before the freedom and the rights of real people
...
...
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD
that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now
...
while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing
That's why I said before not to worry too much. Once the politicians realized their ideology is no match to nature's power, things will go to the good direction pretty quickly.
In a week or two, the US will start to see decreasing daily new cases too.
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just because he could not afford to pay the hospital
...and the EEVblog member body bag and or life support machine count so far is.. ? :-//
same as last week or less? :popcorn:
I have been following the numbers on a website called worldometer and the only largely affected country I feel is being accurately presenting numbers is Spain.accurately??
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems.
That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.
...and the EEVblog member body bag and or life support machine count so far is.. ? :-//
same as last week or less? :popcorn:
How would we know? Does the afterlife have an internet connection?
In the USA, law exist that an acute patient cannot be rejected by any hospital - even private hospitals. The patient must be stabilized and under no immediate danger before they can let the patient leave. Law is one thing, hospitals and emergency rooms are in practice a chaotic place. I had to visit the emergency room on a couple of occasions - had the wait-time for the 2nd visit been as long as the 1st visit, my wife would probably have died waiting. If you can wait, they will see you - insured or not. Died while waiting - well, happens to the insured and uninsured.
That 17 year old who died may not be in the USA. Besides being rejected by hospital which is hard to believe, according to CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR March 26 update (with corrections)[1]), there is no confirmed deaths for anyone at or below 19 years old. I have been monitoring. Over the weekend, I read about an unconfirmed case of an infant, but clearly 17 year old would not be an infant.
As to the lack of equipment or tests, most irresponsible government (local, state or federal) let their stand-by equipment unreplenished. The prior administration let the stock went near empty. No one noticed until they need the surge-stock.
Right now, New York is our worst State in terms of cases. Of the (approx) 160K positive cases in the USA, almost 70K are in NY state - NY City alone has over 40K cases. According to "VENTILATOR ALLOCATION GUIDELINES" developed by New York State Department of Health in Nov 2015[2], they had practically no surge capacity. Of the 8991 ventilators which included the 1750 intended for surge, 85% are already in use. Simple math said they were dipping into the emergence stockpile even in normal times. Expansion was necessary since at least 2015 as stated in the report. I am sure many other States are in similar situation. Spend the money on extra pension and perks instead of stocking up for rainy days.
The Federal government was in similar situation. H1N1 (swine flu), Ebola, (etc.) used up plenty of stock and was not replenished.
With the Federal Government's declaration of emergency, it gave the Feds the power (DPA) to force industries to produce certain products needed by the nation to deal with the emergency. Many corporations already responded without DPA, but at least one did need the influence of DPA before getting moving. So, we have plenty of manufacturing capacity coming on-line, soon. Trump is rather generous - with expectation that we will soon be able to make more than we need, he is offering those anticipated excesses to help others. As to it could be too late then, well, that is as fast as it can happen. If we don't need it by then, all the better for having recovered from an emergency sooner rather than later.
As to "same hell that happened all over the world..." Yeah, profit before the "good of others" is all over the world. I am however sure it is just being profit-driven that brought "hell over the world". Case and point: the selfish people who just want their "spring break at the beach" risk infecting others just so they have a good time. Clearly, "spring break" has no profit in it for the spring-breakers. So, this is my opinion: I think most kids (most people) now are a bit too self-centered and a bit too soft (lacking grit or the ability to deal with dirty/difficult circumstances) to deal with reality. They want freedom, but how many are willing to bleed to defend it?
References:
[1] CDC MMWR March 26 update
[url]https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm[/url] ([url]https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm[/url])
[2] "VENTILATOR ALLOCATION GUIDELINES" developed by New York State Department of Health
[url]https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf[/url] ([url]https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf[/url])
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM)When the guy starts by listing who to blame you know you're in for a shit show. It's a virus, a force of nature. No one responded wholly appropriately and no one could really know how so fair dinkum. Making this into a partisan or nationalist thing is backwards. How about we omit the playground justice and fix this problem best we can?
This is sort of an interesting take on the whole coronavirus thing here in the US, just ignore the title.
...and the EEVblog member body bag and or life support machine count so far is.. ? :-//Look at the stats and see who hasn't been active for a couple of days.
same as last week or less? :popcorn:
This turns out to be a great time to evaluate who you can depend on in a crisis. Many people turn out to be surprisingly practical or cool-headed, while some just turn to mush or panic to the point and becoming a huge liability.
When the guy starts by listing who to blame you know you're in for a shit show. It's a virus, a force of nature. No one responded wholly appropriately and no one could really know how so fair dinkum. Making this into a partisan or nationalist thing is backwards. How about we omit the playground justice and fix this problem best we can?
True, BMI is just a rule of thumb, but it's still true that most people with a BMI >30 are fat rather than muscular and I doubt any of the patients were body builders.This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b (https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b)
So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.
There are no strong people in the UK, all fat? In numbers I'm obese, in life I'm not... Where would that leave me?
BMI is the most stupid number ever invented. It presumes very low muscle and bone mass i.e. it presumes that most of the body weight comes from body fat..
Well, I think it's a pretty well known phenomenon that bad times bring out the best in some people and the worst in some other people.The benefit of the current situation is that it's so wide scale and also that many people aren't really directly involved. They just need to sit tight and behave, but there's already enough pressure applied to reveal the cracks. Though I won't deny a significant amount of people are going through hell, for many intents and purposes it can be almost considered a dry run for a "real" disaster.
As far as the partisan and nationalist types getting things backwards that's hardly surprising. When you are a bit backwards yourself, and have belief systems that hinge more on doctrine and less on fact (more so than most other people's grasp of the world does) you're bound to get things backward.
For pet owners: Harbin vet science center, the only other Chinese P4 lab, has published a research on domesticated animal carrying the virus.It sounds like "outside cats" could bring it home if the reported is true. Do you have a link? This is the kind of information everyone wants to triple check before relaying it.
Put it simple, cats and ferrets can spread the virus, dogs can rarely spread the virus, and other common domesticated animals like pigs, chickens, ducks, etc., cannot get infected and spread the virus.
However, considering your pets only stay in close contact with your family, if it gets the virus, it must have gotten it from your family, so there is no need to be scared of your cats.
As for feral and wild cats, it's better to stay away from them for a while.
I'm dead, but only on the inside. :-//The upside is that the smell stays inside too 8)
True, BMI is just a rule of thumb, but it's still true that most people with a BMI >30 are fat rather than muscular and I doubt any of the patients were body builders.Not to mention that a large muscle mass stresses the body like fat does in many ways. The heart still has to work harder to deal with the added weight and requirements, joints are still stressed more and the list goes on. It's better to have a healthy heart than a fatty heart but muscle mass still adds stress.
Definitely not when I eat beans or onions or cabbage :-[I'm dead, but only on the inside. :-//The upside is that the smell stays inside too 8)
When the guy starts by listing who to blame you know you're in for a shit show. It's a virus, a force of nature. No one responded wholly appropriately and no one could really know how so fair dinkum. Making this into a partisan or nationalist thing is backwards. How about we omit the playground justice and fix this problem best we can?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dyIe2sCbLM)
As for feral and wild cats, it's better to stay away from them for a while.
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD
that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now
...
In the USA, law exist that an acute patient cannot be rejected by any hospital - even private hospitals. The patient must be stabilized and under no immediate danger before they can let the patient leave. Law is one thing, hospitals and emergency rooms are in practice a chaotic place. I had to visit the emergency room on a couple of occasions - had the wait-time for the 2nd visit been as long as the 1st visit, my wife would probably have died waiting. If you can wait, they will see you - insured or not. Died while waiting - well, happens to the insured and uninsured.
That 17 year old who died may not be in the USA. Besides being rejected by hospital which is hard to believe, according to CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR March 26 update (with corrections)[1]), there is no confirmed deaths for anyone at or below 19 years old.
A Los Angeles teen — who tested positive for the coronavirus — died of septic shock after being turned away from an urgent care facility because he didn’t have health insurance.
While the 17-year old’s positive COVID-19 test didn’t arrive until after his death, residents of the LA neighborhood of Lancaster are outraged.
Lancaster Mayor R. Rex Parris told the Daily Mail the teen was healthy and had no pre-existing conditions before his death. Parris said the boy was turned away from the urgent care facility despite having respiratory issues because he didn’t have insurance and was told to go to a public hospital instead.
Updated: A 17-year-old whose death was initially linked to the novel coronavirus despite not having any previously reported health conditions was denied treatment at a California medical facility over his lack of insurance, according to the mayor.
R Rex Parris, the mayor of Lancaster, California, confirmed the teen’s death in a video posted to YouTube on Wednesday, in which he warned residents to take the global pandemic seriously and practice self-isolation and social distancing measures.
“The Friday before he died, he was healthy,” the mayor said about the teenager. “By Wednesday, he was dead.”
The mayor said the teen “didn’t have insurance, so they did not treat him” when he arrived at an urgent care facility in the area. The medical staff then told the child to go to a local public hospital.
Austrian authorities are facing a class action lawsuit involving as many as 2,500 tourists over their handling of a coronavirus outbreak in the popular Austrian winter sports resort of Ischgl, in Tyrol province.
As for feral and wild cats, it's better to stay away from them for a while.
I shall have to give up my cat-dominium business (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/post-a-picture-of-a-cat!/msg2994086/#msg2994086) :D
Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.A good example but have you tried buying one? Plenty of controlled products are advertised on online stores, but it doesn't mean they will sell to the general public. Also thats only the suit shell, still plenty of other components and procedures required.
Hazmat suit:
(Attachment Link)
Or is thing going to go the way of drones and industry will need to find some new term to actually differentiate any given industrial coverall from biological/chemical hazard protection?
From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!
From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".
QuoteAustrian authorities are facing a class action lawsuit involving as many as 2,500 tourists over their handling of a coronavirus outbreak in the popular Austrian winter sports resort of Ischgl, in Tyrol province.
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html)
From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!
From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".
I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed. My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once.
Yes, that is a picture of that same hazmat suit you mention (so clearly you aren't actually familiar with the things you point to), its an example of an actual watertight hazmat suit but alone is still not very effective. Not being typically sold to consumers is very different from a product stocked but not sold to unlicensed/unregistered users. Thermal cameras used to be in that sort of category and high resolution and/or frame rate modes only recently became available to the general public. You keep coming back with nothing more than your thoughts, rather than actual examples or experiences. But the actual point....Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.A good example but have you tried buying one? Plenty of controlled products are advertised on online stores, but it doesn't mean they will sell to the general public. Also thats only the suit shell, still plenty of other components and procedures required.
Hazmat suit:
(Attachment Link)
Or is thing going to go the way of drones and industry will need to find some new term to actually differentiate any given industrial coverall from biological/chemical hazard protection?
The DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit looks just like the Hazmat image you posted.
The Canadian web site (Fisher Scientific) mentions "For Use: industrial, HazMat and domestic preparedness applications". By domestic, they probably do not mean Military :)
Maybe the rules in Canada are different from the rules in Australia.
Anyway, I am sure that in your home lab you have plenty of equipment that are typically not sold at the consumer level.
Also, when I buy automotive paint (to paint cars) the package always read something along the line of "Not to be sold to consumer". I guess in Canada auto part stores are not considered consumer level stores.
:)
Crossing borders is another level of complexity but as goods get higher and higher up the "dual usefulness" just buying them domestically requires paperwork/oversight to ensure they are not being resold/exported/used for their possible military applications. Thermal cameras used to be like that and were held under lock and key like firearms. Lots of really boring things are mysteriously hard/impossible to obtain, all under dual use controls.Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.Nonsense, hazmat suits are heavily restricted objects/systems.
That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.
Dual use = export controlled. People around here buy dual use things all the time, fast FPGAs, thermal cameras. A couple of weeks back I had to complete an end user certificate to import a very ordinary FPGA board from the US because it is classified as dual use. Buying similar things domestically without importing them happens with no paper work at all. I note that the DSGL list you pointed to includes full face respirators in the same category - are you really trying to tell us that your government treats these as "highly restricted" and one could not wander down to the local supplier of equipment to car resprayers and just pick one off the shelf? You certainly could here, I have done.
And no, you can't walk down to the local respray shop and buy biological rated filters for a full face mask, you get filters that are effective against industrial solvents/particulates.
I have good news and I have bad news.
It's April Fools day... in the middle of a pandemic.
:popcorn:
From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!
From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".
I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed. My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once.
You're being a tad parochial and failing to realise that other federated countries exist and the federated entities within them are called states - in this case the states being referred to are the states of Australia. The big clue is in the second line of the comment you're quoting that starts "The Coalition government in Australia...".
From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!
From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".
I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed. My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once. That's across the entire United States from west to east. Some states including Florida are just starting to set up checkpoints this past Monday where people are being checked for the virus but no one is being turned back. Anyone that is suspected of having the virus is being sent to the nearest hospital. Other states that surround virus hot spots of New York, New Jersey, Louisiana are taking similar measures.
I doubt that "Don" is picking numbers off of his head. Most likely he's picking numbers that reflect the actual number of ventilators available and telling Cuomo and the other governors that they can't each have another 40,000 ventilators. (That is the number that Cuomo is demanding and he just got an additional 8,000 from the feds this past week.) It has nothing to do with political parties, I'll just point out that the two states that so far have gotten the lion shares of ventilators from the federal government are both staunch Democratic states (New York and California) with Democratic governors. So far, Florida which is a strongly Republican state with a Republican governor has gotten none! But in the last few weeks we have gotten an extra 200,000 New Yorkers that fled New York when a quarantine was imposed and flew to Florida. And now two international cruise ship full of exposed and infected crews and passengers are being landed in Florida. Oh, and who got the two US Navy hospital ships? New York and California!
From the start, the States pushed for hard restrictions, & some went so far as to unilaterally close State borders, so the Federal govt had to go along with the majority in the body they set up.
I'm really not sure if that would be legally possible in the USA-------It certainly wouldn't be, politically!
From a distance, what we mostly see is the POTUS scoring political points from arguing with State leaders from the other Party about how many ventilators are needed, with Don seemingly "picking a number off the top of his head".
I don't know where you get your information from but you need a new source! Nothing in this statement is true. NO state governor asked for "hard restrictions" and to date NO state border has been closed. My son just drove from California to Florida and was never stopped once.
You're being a tad parochial and failing to realise that other federated countries exist and the federated entities within them are called states - in this case the states being referred to are the states of Australia. The big clue is in the second line of the comment you're quoting that starts "The Coalition government in Australia...".
And you neglected to read the rest of his statement which specifically about the US. Here is the rest of of what you ignored, the last line in the first paragraph makes it clear that he was referring to the US and each of the three following paragraphs also refer specifically to the US. Go back and read his post again, the quote about "The Coalition Government of Australia" was a previous paragraph.
It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.I can actually hear the scrapping noise those goalposts are making as you move them with the strawman draped across them.And no, you can't walk down to the local respray shop and buy biological rated filters for a full face mask, you get filters that are effective against industrial solvents/particulates.I note that the DSGL list you pointed to includes full face respirators in the same category - are you really trying to tell us that your government treats these as "highly restricted" and one could not wander down to the local supplier of equipment to car resprayers and just pick one off the shelf? You certainly could here, I have done.That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.
It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.I can actually hear the scrapping noise those goalposts are making as you move them with the strawman draped across them.And no, you can't walk down to the local respray shop and buy biological rated filters for a full face mask, you get filters that are effective against industrial solvents/particulates.I note that the DSGL list you pointed to includes full face respirators in the same category - are you really trying to tell us that your government treats these as "highly restricted" and one could not wander down to the local supplier of equipment to car resprayers and just pick one off the shelf? You certainly could here, I have done.That's a faintly ridiculous thing to say, protective clothing and equipment is not the sort of thing that, in any sane country, falls into the category of "heavily restricted objects/systems".Respirators and suits providing significant protection against chemical and biological agents (actual hazmat suits) are dual use products.
https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx (https://dsgl.defence.gov.au/dsglcontent/Pages/1A004.aspx)
Not something you can just stroll down to the local shops and buy.
A DuPont Tychem 10,000 Level A Suit cost less than $2000 in Canada, a little bit expensive for Halloween, but available.A good example but have you tried buying one? Plenty of controlled products are advertised on online stores, but it doesn't mean they will sell to the general public. Also thats only the suit shell, still plenty of other components and procedures required.
A private urgent care is not the same as a hospital. The sad fact is they probably wouldn't have been able to do anything except try to get him to a hospital anyway. As the story shows he didn't make it there. His family should have called 911. If you're EVER in doubt in the US call 911. It will not be cheap but they will do everything they can.
I even read that in the US, a couple of days ago, a 17 years old boy died of COVID-19 just because he could not afford to pay the hospital while yesterday mr Trump promised to help Italy with health devices for a value of 100 millions of USD
that does make little sense given that even the US have a lack of those devices while the contagion in the most stricken parts of Italy is already decreasing and probably Spain might need them more than us now
...
In the USA, law exist that an acute patient cannot be rejected by any hospital - even private hospitals. The patient must be stabilized and under no immediate danger before they can let the patient leave. Law is one thing, hospitals and emergency rooms are in practice a chaotic place. I had to visit the emergency room on a couple of occasions - had the wait-time for the 2nd visit been as long as the 1st visit, my wife would probably have died waiting. If you can wait, they will see you - insured or not. Died while waiting - well, happens to the insured and uninsured.
That 17 year old who died may not be in the USA. Besides being rejected by hospital which is hard to believe, according to CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR March 26 update (with corrections)[1]), there is no confirmed deaths for anyone at or below 19 years old.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/17-year-old-dies-of-coronavirus-was-turned-away-for-lacking-insurance/ (https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/17-year-old-dies-of-coronavirus-was-turned-away-for-lacking-insurance/)
...
...
QuoteAustrian authorities are facing a class action lawsuit involving as many as 2,500 tourists over their handling of a coronavirus outbreak in the popular Austrian winter sports resort of Ischgl, in Tyrol province.
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html)
That statement sounds like it came from one of our US ambulance-chasing scum-bag lawyers. They're announcing a possible class-action lawsuit involving as many as 2500 plaintiffs but the press release never says what it is that the resort is alleged to have done wrong.
Despite an official warning from the Icelandic government on March 4 that a group of its nationals had contracted coronavirus in Ischgl, Austrian authorities allowed ski tourism -- and the partying that goes with it -- to continue for another nine days before fully quarantining the resort on March 13. Bars in Ischgl were closed on March 10.https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/europe/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html)
Proof? Which supplier would want to risk their supply permit by either sharing its details, or selling dual use products freely risking onward supply?It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.You've gone to surprising lengths to try and ridicule the OP who mentioned hazmat suits, gainsay me and one other poster who's called you out on hyperbole too, and you still haven't actually made your case. You have completely failed to demonstrate that hazmat suits are, in any fashion other then export control, "heavily restricted items", failed to demonstrate that there is any official "control" forbidding their sale in the normal course of business. You just keep doubling down on the same statement without actually providing any proof, yet conveniently exclude any evidence of them being on general industrial sale by just gainsaying it thus:
Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. :palm:You are comparing apples to oranges. Cuba sent doctors, Russia sent doctors and disinfecting equipment and personnel. Any boots on the ground from France?
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.
I wrote 'face masks'! :palm:
And what are a couple of dozen doctors and nurses going to accomplish compared to the hundreds of thousands of Italian health care workers and military personel anyway? Less than a drop in a bucket. It is pure propaganda to push a wedge into the EU.
Proof? Which supplier would want to risk their supply permit by either sharing its details, or selling dual use products freely risking onward supply?It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.You've gone to surprising lengths to try and ridicule the OP who mentioned hazmat suits, gainsay me and one other poster who's called you out on hyperbole too, and you still haven't actually made your case. You have completely failed to demonstrate that hazmat suits are, in any fashion other then export control, "heavily restricted items", failed to demonstrate that there is any official "control" forbidding their sale in the normal course of business. You just keep doubling down on the same statement without actually providing any proof, yet conveniently exclude any evidence of them being on general industrial sale by just gainsaying it thus:
But back on the original point, seems there was at least one example of a shopper who went to the effort and used substantial biological controls.
(Attachment Link)
The full record of the Task Force's work on disinformation is available on its website EUvsDisinfo.eu
That is the most extreme example I've seen so far documented in mass media, as you say still relatively common and affordable equipment. If you're really interested the Australian government makes it easy to find the relevant legislation:Proof? Which supplier would want to risk their supply permit by either sharing its details, or selling dual use products freely risking onward supply?It does appear you introduced buying full face mask respirators retail, yet failed to link them back to the dual use product classifications which separates out those which are controlled. Seems this thread is full of people who just look at things on a superficial level and equate them, when protective equipment is actually extremely nuanced and complicated.You've gone to surprising lengths to try and ridicule the OP who mentioned hazmat suits, gainsay me and one other poster who's called you out on hyperbole too, and you still haven't actually made your case. You have completely failed to demonstrate that hazmat suits are, in any fashion other then export control, "heavily restricted items", failed to demonstrate that there is any official "control" forbidding their sale in the normal course of business. You just keep doubling down on the same statement without actually providing any proof, yet conveniently exclude any evidence of them being on general industrial sale by just gainsaying it thus:
But back on the original point, seems there was at least one example of a shopper who went to the effort and used substantial biological controls.
(Attachment Link)
Perhaps you should point at the regulations you speak of. Although I expect their existence and details will vary greatly by country.
As for the equipment in the picture, that's fairly low end stuff. The sort of gear a pest exterminator might wear when spraying indoors, for instance. The suit is fairly cheap, the respirator might be too...picture isn't that good. Whether it was any actual effort would depend on what that shopper does for a living. Could be he just made use of equipment he already had handy for his day job.
This is worth seeingA video with a clickbait title and no further explanation? I'm good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)
That video is such a load of crap that it should be considered a mental health medical diagnosis for whoever made it... |OThis is worth seeingA video with a clickbait title and no further explanation? I'm good.
in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.
Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
If you search with google "China Coronavirus lies" it'd appear a lot of people question China. That is a pretty biased search term though.
This is worth seeing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)
This is worth seeingThis is worth autograbbing, piping through quick filter and dumping here to save random future victim 3 minutes of life. /Barely/ worth it. Had targeted max spent time at 2 minutes. Went over it, but kept under 3 minutes. Oh well.
Without a summary I doubt that anyone will bother watching this. From the title it sounds like a conspiracy nut video and most people will, rightly, dismiss it out of hand and not bother watching it.
(put in code box to limit vertical post size)Code: [Select]the Chinese government really needs to
do a better job of hiding information if
they're gonna keep changing their story
and blaming the coronavirus on other
countries like Italy or the USA or Japan
or whatever well I'm not a fan of
theories or unproven scenarios it's been
impossible to avoid them in the outbreak
of the corona virus simply due to the
fact that it was completely covered up
in the beginning stages in China this
isn't really gonna be a theory it's just
public information I found when it broke
China was the first to jump onto the
local Wuhan and who Bay government and
villainize them until they had their
perfect scapegoat this was of course
preceded with the fact that we now know
it wasn't just a local issue it was in
fact the way that the Chinese government
was structured that led the top-down
leadership to stifle and prevent the
release of any relevant information for
months which could have prevented this
global pandemic first and foremost this
is the Communist Party of China's fault
in the fact that there are people
gasping for breath in their deathbed in
your town is solely on the consciousness
of the CCP and the people who entrusted
them to enter our global systems like
the w-h-o the thing is after living in
China for 10 years and speaking fluent
Chinese you get to know a society pretty
well and let me tell you this if you're
applauding or admiring the political
leadership of China you're all deluded
beyond belief China doesn't operate like
your country the Chinese government is a
face and greed driven government that
relies on lies and bullying to maintain
leadership it's broken and fragile so it
doesn't surprise me that when I was
doing my research in my last video it
wasn't hard to follow a paper trail left
by the CCP themselves in my last video I
found it very suspicious that the
official Wuhan virology lab had a job
opening from November 18th of 2019
asking for scientists to come research
the relationship between the coronavirus
and bats specifically why they carry the
virus yet our long-lived it's no secret
that longevity as well as other ailments
are well studied in China as can be seen
by the ridiculous amounts of traditional
Chinese medicines that supposedly treat
them vero bile injections is state
endorsed coronavirus cure anyone any way
while reading this job posting I fail to
notice until the next day
then another job posting followed the
previous post and this is where it got
big so when I examine the job posting I
noticed that there was actually a
follow-up job posting on December 24th
of 2019 remember this is before any news
broke which basically says we've
discovered a new and terrible virus and
would like to recruit people to come
deal with it I found this interesting
because like I said that news didn't
come out about coronavirus until ages
after that so I decided to dig a little
bit more into the staff after all they
would have published articles being
scientists turns out this woman should
youngly she was a lead researcher of the
lab and she was famous for bat studies
they called her bat woman in some
circles she even received an award for
approving bats are natural reservoirs of
SARS like coronaviruses in November 2017
all the way through 2018 she had already
written three articles about how bats
can transmit corona viruses to humans
this is all public knowledge
she and her team went south to Yunnan
Province all the way you know deep south
to China is very beautiful there and she
found out that SARS like viruses
originally came from bats in fact in
2017 from data taken from one of her
studies in rural Yunnan Province she
took blood samples from 218 villagers
after testing it it showed that SARS
like viruses found in bats from nearby
caves have a high potential to affect
people she predicted that humans coming
into contact with bats would have a high
chance of becoming infected after blood
testing the 218 villagers she found that
six people in Yunnan were found to be
infected
she returned to Wuhan to the lab to
continue studying stars like
coronaviruses from bats for a long
period of time and this is why you can
see the November 18th 2019 job posting
asking for more researchers to join the
project during this time we don't know
much but the December 24th posting
acknowledges that they've made a big
discovery in human transmissibility and
they need more help to deal with it so
that's where it got kind of spooky
during my research a name kept popping
up
Huang yelling Huang Lian Ling was a
researcher in the lab working on the
virology of bats with Zhang Li and she's
missing
most people believe her to be patient
zero and most people believe she's dead
she's young Li you know the
had lab leader told the government that
she swears on her life that she isn't
dead nor was she infected however all of
her info on the Wuhan lab website you
know where I found the job posting it's
gone so if you look here if you go to
the actual virology website you can see
all the people that were working here or
were students they all have their BIOS
still up whether or not they moved on
from the Wuhan lab but if you can see
Huang Lian Ling's profile is completely
vanished her picture is gone and now her
bio was gone as well but if you go to
the other students all their BIOS remain
intact knowing his scenar
and the government has posted a notice
instead of any information about her on
the lab website stating that there were
rumors of her disappearance but she's
alive and well without giving an ounce
of proof of course everyone on the
Chinese internet is searching for her
but most believe that her body was
quickly cremated and the people working
at the crematorium where perhaps
infected as they were not given any
information about the virus it was a
secret after all the thing is this has
sparked a massive discussion on the
Chinese internet and most of the
articles get scrubbed pretty quickly but
I found a lot of good points now the
thing is the CCP put up this kind of
notice saying that she's totally alive
and everything's okay and don't believe
these rumors but but if you've been in
China you know how how much the CCP
actually hates rumors and if Wong
yelling is truly alive like they claim
why is her photo and bio removed the
other associates and graduates remain on
the website even after moving to other
positions at different labs or different
universities the first thing that the
government would do the CCP that I know
at least the first thing they would do
to quash this rumor is to make her have
a public appearance then people would
stop talking about it yet people are
still looking for and can't find her and
I'm not talking about normal medicines
I'm talking about PhDs I'm talking about
scientists I'm talking about professors
and this is where it kind of started to
come together on February 6 2020
albertov he was a professor he posted a
thesis about details that he knew about
but he wasn't supposed to talk about I
see some kind of links to people like
Lee wen Liang who wanted to say
something but they couldn't but she'll
wha tell the professor he posted the
information anyway
he knew researchers at the lab that were
infected and they had already begun self
quarantine after they showed symptoms of
being infected and the majority of the
researchers at the lab were already
suspicious that this virus that they
were coming down with was from Pat's the
professor directly pointed out that the
main source of the virus is from the
wuhan lab which is only 300 or actually
280 meters to be exact from the hanan
seafood market where it was originally
claimed to have originated he also
claims that it is not a natural
infection so not something that people
would have just come across in nature he
also gives a clear timeline and has
information that researchers were
splashed with urine and blood samples
from all the bats that were collected
not only that he also knew exactly how
many bats were collected in the lab now
pairing the researcher Huang Lian Ling's
disappearance with the fact that people
working in the lab claimed to have been
splashed with coronavirus containing
vials and her online presence has been
scrubbed from existence all happening in
a lab 280 metres away from the Han
seafood market where the lab in question
had been studying that's a human
transmissibility of coronaviruses it's
quite clear that the Chinese government
needs to close his mouth and acknowledge
that this in fact did come from wuhan
hubei China I did not get into any
conspiracy theories I'm not talking
about bio weapons or bio labs or
anything of the sort
this was all public information on the
Chinese Internet published by
researchers scientists and doctors with
the CCP is all powerful control to hide
everything it can the truth usually
still finds its way out the Chinese
government should cover their tracks
better next time if you're gonna blame
this on Italy or the US or whatever is
convenient to your narrative the ccp's
incompetence and clear understanding of
the corona virus and his danger on a
scientific level and then going on to
silence those who wanted to warn the
public and letting the virus spread for
months is the reason the entire world is
infected with a deadly pandemic the
Chinese government must be held
accountable please make sure that you're
all self quarantine if at all possible
most things are available for delivery
so please don't go shopping unless
absolutely necessary make sure you're
wearing a masking
if you do and disinfecting anything that
has come into contact with anything it's
our job to clean up this mess and the
only way is to be responsible and not
come in contact with people this will
only further the spread and put
unnecessary burden on the already
overstretched medical staff in your
country thank you to everyone who is
supporting me on patreon it's the only
way I can do what I do right now due to
the D monetization of everything
coronavirus related it may dissuade
people from talking about it but the
world needs to know the truth and
covering details like I have done today
is the least I can do to uncover and
disprove the absolute lies coming from
the Chinese government right now whose
sole purpose is self-preservation thank
you
-- Spammed but not read
now I wonder if those deaths figures in China are real
Imagine Italy suddenly sees 20k new well staffed beds for COVID19 patients. It starts to get less scary.
This is worth seeing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)
Without a summary I doubt that anyone will bother watching this. From the title it sounds like a conspiracy nut video and most people will, rightly, dismiss it out of hand and not bother watching it.
We really should never have invented any technology that can give an idiot a stage
This is worth seeing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU&app=desktop)
Without a summary I doubt that anyone will bother watching this. From the title it sounds like a conspiracy nut video and most people will, rightly, dismiss it out of hand and not bother watching it.
Worse by them , they will lose information of how work the world behind the scenes. I believe(hypotesis) that the covid was released by the chinese goverment or by a faction of the Chinese Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.
Let me be blunt.I will be even more blunt. Whoever made that video is full blown mental patient. Sad really, he (or she) should seek medical help.
Books cost serious work and money to publish. In comparison, YouTube publishing is cheap and easy..We really should never have invented any technology that can give an idiot a stage
Yes, Gutenberg has a lot to answer for, lol...
Worse by them , they will lose information of how work the world behind the scenes. I believe(hypotesis) that the covid was released by the chinese goverment or by a faction of the Chinese Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.
Let me be blunt. If I read that right (and the only reason you're getting the benefit of the doubt here is that past experience suggests that you struggle with English), you're saying that this was a deliberate release of the SARS-covid-2 virus by an internal Chinese political faction. If that's what you're saying you are, on the balance of probabilities, very very wrong. You have no evidence yet are prepared, on the basis of no evidence, to seriously put forward a hypothesis of deliberate release on that basis? If that is what you're saying, it genuinely calls into question at least your judgement, possibly your rationality and sanity. I don't mean that unkindly, and in no terms is that meant as an insult.
Or to put it into terms we'd say around my neighbourhood: "If you believe that you're off your trolley".
Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
If you search with google "China Coronavirus lies" it'd appear a lot of people question China. That is a pretty biased search term though.
Of course there are enough people in the world that, finally joined together by the Internet, there is a not insignificant quantity of resources on the same devoted to the belief that the earth is flat, the Illuminati are real and control the world, and so on. There are enough people who believe that China exists wholly to make America/the Wests's lives miserable that it's just plain natural that there's a lot of conspiracy flying about around China.
Worse by them , they will lose information of how work the world behind the scenes. I believe(hypotesis) that the covid was released by the chinese goverment or by a faction of the Chinese Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.
in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.
Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.
Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%
Indeed. We've almost reached capacity of testing by now. I don't think we can go beyond 200k/week in the near future, even when politicians say we need to. Not enough supply for making test kits. Myself, still in isolation for being in a room with an infected person, wasn't tested. I doubt I caught it. Symptoms were almost unnoticeable.
The CFR depends a lot not only on number of tests but also on who you test. If you test only those with severe symptoms, naturally CFR is high. Up to now we've tested even patients with mild or no symptoms, to prevent spread by early isolation. With social distancing in place and (potentially) everyone being required to wear "masks", maybe the spread can be controlled without the massive testing effort.
I believe(hypotesis) that the covid was released by the chinese goverment or by a faction of the Chinese Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.
For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.
:--I believe(hypotesis) that the covid was released by the chinese goverment or by a faction of the Chinese Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.
For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.
For what? For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed infrastructers and industries. How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?
1: I suppose that they release the bug for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).
Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be a landmark.
:--That's just what they want you to do. ;)
Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.
I believe(hypotesis) that the covid was released by the chinese goverment or by a faction of the Chinese Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.
For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.
For what? For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed infrastructers and industries. How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?
1: I suppose that they release the bug for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).
Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be a landmark.
:--I believe(hypotesis) that the covid was released by the chinese goverment or by a faction of the Chinese Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.
For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.
For what? For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed infrastructers and industries. How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?
1: I suppose that they release the bug for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).
Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be a landmark.
Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.
It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans. This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...
Conspiracy theories , yes , yes.
Yes well there's an opposite conspiracy theory to the one vodka proposes mentioned briefly earlier in this thread and I've heard it too from other sources.Conspiracy theories , yes , yes.
I wonder why, of all other plausible causes (like, a lab accident that was being tried to cover up), you chose biological warfare / world domination scheme by the Chinese government as the most likely option. :palm:
I take back the polite approach. You're a nutjob.
Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.
QuoteI take back the polite approach. You're a nutjob.
Ahem. You don't have to read his stuff, never mind reply to it. And you don't have to be nasty it politeness doesn't get the response you wanted.
I agree. And the evidence pointing towards a natural cause is that everybody on the entire world is equally badly affected. And the signs have been on the wall for a long time. Very contageous diseases are wrecking havoc through 'our' lifestock regulary. This time it is our turn but unlike lifestock mass killing is not considered an option.It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans. This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...
People seem to think that, just because we're at the top of the food chain, we don't have natural predators any more. It's just that we've mostly conquered the ones with loud growls and big teeth, because we can see those coming!
We are reaching the point where the oldest people you know were probably born in the era of antibiotics. My grandparents could tell me horrible stories of healthy school friends who were happily playing cricket, got a minor injury, and were dead a few days later from a runaway infection. People in developed countries have gotten used to living a long life with a low risk of dying of infection along the way. They fear things like cancer and accidents instead. Most people aren't psychologically prepared for a serious fear of infections to return. They treat this like the stuff of science fiction stories. I see people treating stories of MRSA outbreaks in hospitals like they were science fiction tales.It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans. This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...People seem to think that, just because we're at the top of the food chain, we don't have natural predators any more. It's just that we've mostly conquered the ones with loud growls and big teeth, because we can see those coming!
...
...
USA wide is just over two weeks but differs greatly depending on State. According to University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projection, the USA cumulative is April 16 peak.
By state:
Vermont, NY, NJ are the earliest peaking April 9;
Michigan, Connecticut, Louisiana peaks April 10;
skipping to number 23...
Georgia, Mississippi,North Carolina peaks April 22.
Last to peak are Maryland on May 14 and Virginia on May 17.
So, we will be sweating it out on different dates...
We are reaching the point where the oldest people you know were probably born in the era of antibiotics. My grandparents could tell me horrible stories of healthy school friends who were happily playing cricket, got a minor injury, and were dead a few days later from a runaway infection.
China has started tracking down infected people with zero symptoms.
Today Chinese CDC has reported 2 confirmed new cases and 60 tested positive cases with zero symptoms, scattered around the country.
It seems like there MIGHT be a second wave in China. It took Wuhan about 3 weeks to go into full eruption mode, so presumable zero symptom cases can't be all isolated from society, China has less than 3 weeks to roll vaccines.
So far zero symptom cases have been considered much less contagious, but nevertheless all you need is a spark to light a forest.
There are some vaccines being trialled. What is a concern is there will be less testing to get the vaccine out more quickly. There may be long term side effects we did not anticipate :scared:. Remember thalidomide.
As they update the projection, may be it can return to be a useful tool.This is a force of nature, the numbers can stem from observations, but slight deviations in several factors make huge differences in 2 weeks time. It is not as if you can plan how such a virus spreads or prepare within short amounts of time.
[...]If they rush drugs and vaccines and they end up doing wide spread harm it will vindicate the anti-vaxxers, strengthen their movement and also enflame the anti-science disease that has been spreading. Ultimately that could throw us into another dark ages.It is not as if anti-vaxxers needed reasons or evidence, or had a concerted effort other than spreading misinformation and selling snake oil. They probably ignore actual cases because it would constitute that the source of information can actually be trusted, although they told otherwise for ages - or lose the integrity they never had.
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.
-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.
-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)
They drill down to local levels even, e.g., US State and County. Really interesting and potentially valuable for providing measures of NPI, especially with the pre and post data. Modellers bonanza I would think.
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.
-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)
They drill down to local levels even, e.g., US State and County. Really interesting and potentially valuable for providing measures of NPI, especially with the pre and post data. Modellers bonanza I would think.
Really curious how details and in depth of the population data, that Google owns right now.
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.
Interesting statistics by countries due to Corvid19 collected by Google.
-》 https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/)
They drill down to local levels even, e.g., US State and County. Really interesting and potentially valuable for providing measures of NPI, especially with the pre and post data. Modellers bonanza I would think.
Really curious how details and in depth of the population data, that Google owns right now.
Completely unsurprising seeing as it has been demonstrated that you can in practice fool Google into thinking there's a traffic jam just by walking a small trolley full of Android phones around the streets of Berlin.
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.
Medical experiments on prisoners who can't freely give informed consent? Not exactly a morally sound idea. I think somebody needs to read a history book or two.
How about we leave human medical experimentation to only happening on genuine volunteers who have been told the risks and volunteer out of a desire to help their fellow man?
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.
Medical experiments on prisoners who can't freely give informed consent? Not exactly a morally sound idea. I think somebody needs to read a history book or two.
How about we leave human medical experimentation to only happening on genuine volunteers who have been told the risks and volunteer out of a desire to help their fellow man?
Oh no problem, have been done in UK, e.g Theralizumab/TGN1412 scandal a phase 1 clinical trials conducted by Parexel at Northwick Park and St. Mark's Hospital, London, on 13 March 2006. Healthy volunteers recruited to the study given £2,000. Trial resulted in intensive care hospitalization of all six volunteers who got the drug, four of whom suffered multiple organ dysfunctions and some lost lims and almost death.
Or like the svine flue scandal in Sweden due to Glaxo Smith garbage experimental drug causing youngsters insomnia decease
for life, cost gov(tax payers of course as usual) 10 million in damages.
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.
Aka bollocks
My father in law is currently lying in hospital in an artificially induced coma with one collapsed lung and kidney failure at the moment and the family are busy carving up his possessions before he’s even croaked. There’s even speak of someone trying to get him a copy of his will he forgot to sign in case he wakes up.
That’s coronavirus! Not the Main Stream Media version or that horse shit above. Humans are horrible animals.
Sadly, when we created a functional society we turned our backs on natural selection and the idiots get to reproduce!
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.
Nothing to see. Like in "Germany". The biggest FUCK in human history since 9/11!When people say 'critical thinking' they are full of BS.
:-DD :-DD :-DD
Then stop the bullying.I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.
Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
Then stop the bullying.I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.
Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!
Then stop the bullying.I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.
Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.In Croatia they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.I gather authorities won't take kindly to any and all attempts at fraud and will bring the full force of the law down on people. Just look at how they treat people who've been deliberately spitting or coughing.
Been thinking about this for weeks (I am sure I was not alone) and am now reading it in Mass Media. How long before we see immunity certificates?Not quite sure I like the idea. My mind quickly wanders to the image of a yellow hexagram you can attach to your jacket.
Today one particular local authority reported three supposedly new deaths in an elderly care facility, but since no one is now in response of counting the total, no one knows whether these are included in the earlier numbers (not being new after all) or not.The Dutch bureau for statistics is registering a much larger (abnormal) spike in deaths compared to people officially dying from Corona.
Can we agree that if Trump promotes a drug or vaccine as to showing "he did a good job" and "he is fucking great at everything, wait and see"... he tries it on himself first. ?
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.In Croatia they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)
Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)
Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.
UK has WHOLE country covered with 10s of millions of cameras. We are all living in full blown police states that are currently not abusing it on large scale..That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.In Croatia they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
Yes but being the UK most of them are broken though :-DDSound like my country !!
UK has WHOLE country covered with 10s of millions of cameras. We are all living in full blown police states that are currently not abusing it on large scale..That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.In Croatia they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
I got it. In your opinion NYT are either not trustworthy or are not able to check facts. Presumably, because you think NYT was implicated in murder and torture...https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)
Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.
Of course the source of this is impeccable. After all, the CIA have never been known to distort the truth or mislead people for their own political ends. Glad we're finally getting data from such an honest, reliable, trustworthy source that has never been implicated in murder, torture, or commercial drug smuggling to illicitly fund a revolution in another country, let alone misinformation campaigns. Glad we've got that straight.
Why would you think I was being sarcastic? A bunch of spies and manipulators are the obvious choice to turn to for epidemiological data. There's no possibility that they might be trying to sew some kind of story that puts a country that they regard as political enemies in a bad light.
A colleague of the wife of a colleague of mine turned to be a confirmed symptom-less case.
I got it. In your opinion NYT are either not trustworthy or are not able to check facts. Presumably, because you think NYT was implicated in murder and torture...https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)
Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.
Of course the source of this is impeccable. After all, the CIA have never been known to distort the truth or mislead people for their own political ends. Glad we're finally getting data from such an honest, reliable, trustworthy source that has never been implicated in murder, torture, or commercial drug smuggling to illicitly fund a revolution in another country, let alone misinformation campaigns. Glad we've got that straight.
Why would you think I was being sarcastic? A bunch of spies and manipulators are the obvious choice to turn to for epidemiological data. There's no possibility that they might be trying to sew some kind of story that puts a country that they regard as political enemies in a bad light.
Who are credible then? Xinhua or Russia Today?
...
It's got nothing to do with the NYT, they are just reporting what has been said by another. Its not an editorial, it's reportage. Just because the report is in the NYT doesn't lend the contents of what they are reporting on the imprimatur of truth. The reporting may be as accurate as you like while the matter reported is completely flawed.
...
It's got nothing to do with the NYT, they are just reporting what has been said by another. Its not an editorial, it's reportage. Just because the report is in the NYT doesn't lend the contents of what they are reporting on the imprimatur of truth. The reporting may be as accurate as you like while the matter reported is completely flawed.
:-DD :palm:
In other more important news. The logarithmic graphs are showing a downward deflection. Inflection point?
... or lack of tests?
UK has WHOLE country covered with 10s of millions of cameras. We are all living in full blown police states that are currently not abusing it on large scale..That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.In Croatia they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
That political chip on your shoulder is preventing you from reading my comment as what it was, a neutral statement, into some imagined attack on your state and implicit support for my state, which it wasn't.
They’re working on it here. Not much point until you have antibody testing in place though. As for fakes I imagine they will be verifiable in some way. Possibly to present with ID.In Croatia they have central registry. All that are confirmed cases, and those in self isolation are known. If they catch those in self isolation, they get escorted home and fined... Those with confirmed infection are in quarantine. They verify it in real time...
Travel permits are issued online, directly in registry... So no fakes..
That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.
There are some vaccines being trialled. What is a concern is there will be less testing to get the vaccine out more quickly. There may be long term side effects we did not anticipate :scared:. Remember thalidomide.
In other more important news. The logarithmic graphs are showing a downward deflection. Inflection point?
... or lack of tests?
Not really, it almost looks like a testing/reporting bottleneck. We stay the same for 3 days then jump.... again. Bearing in mind that the definition of someone who has it in the UK seems to be that it's so bad that they end up in hospital. The people that just feel a bit off and could have been infectious for up to 2 weeks are told to stay home and not inform anyone of their condition. It's almost like they don't what to know the real numbers and are hoping to be able to report less to justify their suicidal approach at the start.
UK has WHOLE country covered with 10s of millions of cameras. We are all living in full blown police states that are currently not abusing it on large scale..
That political chip on your shoulder is preventing you from reading my comment as what it was, a neutral statement, into some imagined attack on your state and implicit support for my state, which it wasn't.
I don't have political chip on my shoulder, bu you might have, being sensitive to my comment. I wasn't counterattacking but merely stated that we all live in countries that have all infrastructure (technical, military, police, intelligence services) of a full blown Orwellian state. It is just that our countries usually don't abuse it... That is actually great. They choose to do the right thing..
I wasn't counterattacking but merely stated that we all live in ...
What about let the "virus party" idiots be beta testers of the vaccine in exchange for getting permission to party? (Note that it is voluntary - they have the option to not get the vaccine and discontinue partying.) While we're at it, let's use prisoners as alpha testers in exchange for time off their sentences.
Medical experiments on prisoners who can't freely give informed consent? Not exactly a morally sound idea. I think somebody needs to read a history book or two.
Sadly, when we created a functional society we turned our backs on natural selection and the idiots get to reproduce!
Well, perhaps god in her infinite wisdom has sent us a virus designed to wipe out whole families that don't believe in it as a spot of supernatural selection. :)
That's worryingly difficult to differentiate from a police state. Understandable at the moment, but it does give one pause for thought.
stupid people need stupid measures....
If you don't want people to take what you say as nationalistic, the best approach would be to not prefix it with a remark that prima facia appears to be nationalistic.Fair enough! But still, you reacted a bit sensitive.. I'm sorry you read it that way, it't wasn't my intention to counterattack.
Been thinking about this for weeks (I am sure I was not alone) and am now reading it in Mass Media. How long before we see immunity certificates? Don't know, maybe 6 weeks in the US. I think that we will see fakes a few minutes later, or maybe well before.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/immunity-passport-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/immunity-passport-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html)
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ (https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc)
This way of presenting the statistics helps visualize the deflection point.
(With that, countries can't be compared at the relative point where the deflection happens, because the axes show absolute cases, not cases per population, so small countries appear to more left than larger countries. Yet, you can easily visualize the deflection point, and also see the changes in testing procedures (sudden jump downward, then back to the original slope.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html)
Predictive epidemiological models based on data from China are garbage. People’s Republic has been manipulating its Covid-19 statistics.
Of course the source of this is impeccable. After all, the CIA have never been known to distort the truth or mislead people for their own political ends. Glad we're finally getting data from such an honest, reliable, trustworthy source that has never been implicated in murder, torture, or commercial drug smuggling to illicitly fund a revolution in another country, let alone misinformation campaigns. Glad we've got that straight.
Why would you think I was being sarcastic? A bunch of spies and manipulators are the obvious choice to turn to for epidemiological data. There's no possibility that they might be trying to sew some kind of story that puts a country that they regard as political enemies in a bad light.
there are 2 problems
1) we are not yet sure (there are still some doubts) once you got past the disease you're immune
I think I’ve had it and am recovering still. It’s fucking horrible.I've problably had it but in a very mild form, basically a bad cold but not quite as bad as normal flu.
Hopefully he can check efficacy of sodium thiopental first.You say that but I'm sure it stops all ill effects of a Covid infection. No fever and no difficulty to breathe and very little chance of infecting anyone else.
Hopefully he can check efficacy of sodium thiopental first.You say that but I'm sure it stops all ill effects of a Covid infection. No fever and no difficulty to breathe and very little chance of infecting anyone else.
<snipped>
I've always been wondering what substance are you constantly on.
Can we agree that if Trump promotes a drug or vaccine as to showing "he did a good job" and "he is fucking great at everything, wait and see"... he tries it on himself first. ?
Hopefully he can check efficacy of sodium thiopental first.
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.
Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
Then stop the bullying.
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!
In case you forgot. I am the one that get's to ban you when you have pissed me off enough, and if you think that proves your stupid little theories right then I'll tell you while i still have the chance that it does not!
@ hwj-d please post the censored stuff again, but try tone it down a bit mate,
and put yourself in the Mods' shoes.. or flip flops ? :-// ;D
Simon has enough corpotrolls, bs conspiracy clowns, and idiots from other electronics forums causing drama here to deal with already :scared:
Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)
Criminal negligence, lies and a massive cover-up by the government...
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html (https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html)
I am curious how long my posting here is uncensored to be seen.
Oh so we are part of the conspiracy. Humor us clever dick, why would this be a big hoax. Go on, don't just post other people bull, tell us in your infinite wisdom, why?
Then stop the bullying.
The whole story around it is much too serious for that.
End of discussion!
In case you forgot. I am the one that get's to ban you when you have pissed me off enough, and if you think that proves your stupid little theories right then I'll tell you while i still have the chance that it does not!
@ hwj-d please post the censored stuff again, but try tone it down a bit mate,
and put yourself in the Mods' shoes.. or flip flops ? :-// ;D
Simon has enough corpotrolls, bs conspiracy clowns, and idiots from other electronics forums causing drama here to deal with already :scared:
Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)
America first, don´t you know ? ;)
Criminal negligence, lies and a massive cover-up by the government...Jezus, we get it. Kangaroo goobermant bad.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html (https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-health-allowed-cruise-ship-passengers-to-disembark-despite-test-results-pending-20200403-p54gze.html)
I have a fundamentally different opinion on the lethality of this corona virus, and have many concrete examples and cinematic evidence that published film clips of the MSM are fake, and many large hospitals where corona patients claim overcrowding are actually empty.Well, first of all Germany isn't hit very hard yet and Germany seems to have an extreme ICU capacity. Secondly the video you linked to is from the US. The US is just starting to get hit by the Corona virus. The big storm is yet to come and what the 'critical thinking' video shows is that hospitals are getting prepared. Go and film the same spots in a couple of weeks; I'm sure they are crowded with patients. Over here in the NL the ICU capacity of the hospitals has been scaled up to maximum capacity but nobody is sure it is enough. Even with patients being moved across the country and some even to Germany. BTW numbers from the Netherlands show that only about 1 in 5 persons ending up in the ICU survives and 20% to 30% of the Corona deaths aren't counted in the official statistics.
Make America .. virulent again?Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)
America first, don´t you know ? ;)
We ARE #1 in the whole freakin world! For confirmed cases. And we are leaving y'all in the dust!
Here is another one, good analysis of that situation.No. A typical case of denial. In a couple of weeks you'll see a video of her crying because someone dear to her died due to Corona and then she feels quilty for downplaying the seriousness. Mark my words. My wife knows quite a lot of people and at least 2 have died due to Corona. These persons wheren't old (below 60) and likely more to follow.
Ok, that's a different tone, in a positive sense.I have a fundamentally different opinion on the lethality of this corona virus, and have many concrete examples and cinematic evidence that published film clips of the MSM are fake, and many large hospitals where corona patients claim overcrowding are actually empty.Well, first of all Germany isn't hit very hard yet and Germany seems to have an extreme ICU capacity. Secondly the video you linked to is from the US. The US is just starting to get hit by the Corona virus. The big storm is yet to come and what the 'critical thinking' video shows is that hospitals are getting prepared. Go and film the same spots in a couple of weeks; I'm sure they are crowded with patients. Over here in the NL the ICU capacity of the hospitals has been scaled up to maximum capacity but nobody is sure it is enough. Even with patients being moved across the country and some even to Germany. BTW numbers from the Netherlands show that only about 1 in 5 persons ending up in the ICU survives and 20% to 30% of the Corona deaths aren't counted in the official statistics.
Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!
Your faith is sacred to me, of course. ;)Here is another one, good analysis of that situation.No. A typical case of denial. In a couple of weeks you'll see a video of her crying because someone dear to her died due to Corona and then she feels quilty for downplaying the seriousness. Mark my words. My wife knows quite a lot of people and at least 2 have died due to Corona. These persons wheren't old (below 60) and likely more to follow.
Hah! Yea, that's the kind of dark and sarcastic humor I was going for. When thing are looking bleak, my humor tends to take a downward spiral. Perhaps I should "socially distance" myself online too?!? Eh... Probably not...Make America .. virulent again?Multiple accusations of US snatching mask shipments destined for other countries
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html (https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_87648648/coronavirus-pandemie-masken-beschlagnahmt-usa-reagiert-auf-vorwuerfe.html)
America first, don´t you know ? ;)
We ARE #1 in the whole freakin world! For confirmed cases. And we are leaving y'all in the dust! :palm:
Well done I suppose! :-+ :-//
look into the analysis of Amazing Polly
For instance, our privacy is being massively eroded in the name of tracing infections. On the one had that's a good use of information, but on the other it's a very slippery slope. At the end (if there is an end!) it's likely that most of these privacy invasions will have become the norm and will stick around. Some of these emergency laws won't be repealed, etc. All our governments have lots of form for doing that, but what they are doing is taking advantage of a situation.
I don't see how a personal experience should make a difference, however sad it is. It would sure bias your own perception of reality, but unfortunately, the severity of a pandemic is just judged by numbers... Hard facts.
Anyway.
I really have heard of mixed opinions from serious people in the medical field so far. I admit I absolutely don't know what to think at the moment. Not that it even makes a difference anyway, as we have no choice but follow the orders of our governments and be reasonably cautious otherwise.
Some specialists seem to think we are overreacting, some clearly state that we are not doing enough. In both camps, many are saying we aren't doing things right at the moment though, so there seems to be a small sad consensus on this, while we are pedalling to get it over with. It's also sad to see that we seem to kindly ignore what those that "succeeded" (relatively) did, and what they are currently suggesting us, while our figures keep growing despite the confinement.
One thing that is factually frightening about this virus is not necessarily the numbers in the end, but how the victims' life ends when they are the unlucky ones. Respiratory infections are always awful when they get bad, but this one can get REALLY bad - people basically end up "drowning" in their own fluids. Atrocious way of ending your life.
Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!
For instance, our privacy is being massively eroded in the name of tracing infections. On the one had that's a good use of information, but on the other it's a very slippery slope. At the end (if there is an end!) it's likely that most of these privacy invasions will have become the norm and will stick around. Some of these emergency laws won't be repealed, etc. All our governments have lots of form for doing that, but what they are doing is taking advantage of a situation.
I mentioned my pessimistic fear of this in several posts, and I agree with you here. Some people (I don't blame them!) are trying to see the positive in all this and how it could change things for the better in the end - I unfortunately have little hope of that.
As I said earlier, just like what happened with our fight against terrorism, it's extremely likely that our privacy AND freedom are going to be severely eroded for quite a while (in the optimistic scenario), and possibly for a very long time otherwise.
Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!
You're making a mistake in assuming that any rational argument is going to make a dent in the belief system of the committed conspiracy fan. That everybody in the world is hunkered down in their homes is, to them, evidence that they are right. Because that's what the government wants. To them this is evidence that the government have some nefarious plan that requires trashing the world's economy for god knows how many months. That this would require an effective conspiracy to be driving the actions all the governments in the world is, to them, entirely believable. To them Occam's Razor is something that the Men In Black use on your throat when you get too close to the government's secrets. You are dealing with people who do not and will not approach the subject with rational thinking and dealing with them on the basis that they will see sense is futile.
Quotelook into the analysis of Amazing Polly
Don't have time or the willpower to sit through multiple half-hour videos. If they have something important or useful to say then write it down. If they can't be arsed to do that, because videos are easy, it's not worth my time either.
...
Ofcourse you are entitled to your opinion but don't get fooled by people who serve carefully selected footage to paint a general picture showing nothing is going on. The world's economy hasn't been halted for a fire drill!
You're making a mistake in assuming that any rational argument is going to make a dent in the belief system of the committed conspiracy fan. That everybody in the world is hunkered down in their homes is, to them, evidence that they are right. Because that's what the government wants. To them this is evidence that the government have some nefarious plan that requires trashing the world's economy for god knows how many months. That this would require an effective conspiracy to be driving the actions all the governments in the world is, to them, entirely believable. To them Occam's Razor is something that the Men In Black use on your throat when you get too close to the government's secrets. You are dealing with people who do not and will not approach the subject with rational thinking and dealing with them on the basis that they will see sense is futile.
So much hate? God have mercy on your poor soul. :)
Quotelook into the analysis of Amazing Polly
Don't have time or the willpower to sit through multiple half-hour videos. If they have something important or useful to say then write it down. If they can't be arsed to do that, because videos are easy, it's not worth my time either.
...
Somewhat strange view of appreciating the effort of gathering information, don't you think? After all, all you have to do is listen to, and think about it.