Covid 19 virus

[thinkfat]

Individuals don't care about statistics.
It's also vice versa.

[SiliconWizard]

in fact it might not even be 10x as deadly as the "normal" flu.

It might not. But the WHO have just announced that the global death rate is 3.4% which is 34x as deadly as the "normal" flu. But they also say it varies wildly depending on age, gender and country.

Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

[Cerebus]

Yup, and also we obviously have many more cases of flu recorded than cases of this virus so far, so the mortality rate can't really be compared so far (and I hope it doesn't spread as much as "regular" flu so we don't have to know for sure.)

You can't properly calculate the mortality rate or the case-fatality ratio until an epidemic is over. Mostly because an on-going epidemic involves a lot of ongoing cases where the outcome is, kind of obviously, uncertain.

Just so we're all singing from the same hymn sheet, in epidemiological terms:

• Mortality rate - the proportion of the general population (i.e. infected and uninfected alike) who become infected and die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as the number of deaths per 100,000.
• Case-fatality ratio - the proportion of people who have become infected who will die from a disease in an epidemic. Usually expressed as a percentage.
• R₀ - the basic reproductive ratio - the number of other people that an infected person will infect in turn.

So, best estimates for Covid-19 at the time of writing:

• Mortality rate - none, the epidemic is still in progress.
• Case-fatality ratio - 2-3%. Estimates vary widely.
• R₀ - 1.4-3.8

[Bud]

India has found a cure for Covid !

https://qz.com/india/1811526/bizarre-coronavirus-remedies-suggested-by-indian-politicians/amp/

[hamster_nz]

NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.

I'm picking that this is so a large group related can be informed at the same time.

<complete speculation> A random guess would be that the person is at a school student or a member of staff - hoepfully not.</complete speculation>

Update: Phew, the case is not a student but a parent who has had family members recently return from Iran. They do have children at two different schools, which has been notified.

[tautech]

NZ has a third case... unlike the first two, the details are not being announced immediately - somewhat against the stated "information will be made public as soon as we have any details" policy.

Infected from the family member that bought Corona from Iran. Family now in lockdown.

[aix]

Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

I am not seeing that (in the UK).

[FriedLogic]

Is it me or everyone, that Youtube is pushing information from WHO on their front page.

Apparently there's a deliberate attempt by some social media companies etc. to promote what they class as reliable info. There's some concern about how much traffic is going to the 'unreliable' sources at the moment.

[Bud]

I get the same on Digikey web site.

[iMo]

There are 2 strains of the covid19 - see the pdf "On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2", scientists say :
"S" - less prevalent ancestral version, and
"L"  - more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, more aggressive.

[Wallace Gasiewicz]

Latest study from China:
Mortality lower than 1% for covid19

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1

Wally

[Cerebus]

Latest study from China:
Mortality lower than 1% for covid19

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926089?src=WNL_trdalrt_200305_MSCPEDIT&uac=356862FZ&impID=2300885&faf=1

Wally

One of my pet hates, partial reporting of bad reporting of medical literature.

Firstly, the original paper the medscape article is based on is here ("Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China") for anyone who wants to read it.

Secondly the headline "Mortality lower than 1% for covid19" quoted above is actually "COVID-19 Mortality Rate May Be 'Considerably Less Than 1%'" in the Medscape article (Emphasis mine) and, as we will see, that is still inaccurate to the point of uselessness.

Thirdly the phrase 'Considerably Less Than 1%' headlined as a quote in the Medline article doesn't appear anywhere in the actual original paper, it is from a secondary source and it's still a misquote of that source, which doesn't use the phrase either. The original paper found a death rate of 1.4% in the 1099 people in the study, 9% had recovered and 93.6% were still hospitalised, i.e. the outcome for these people still hospitalised is still unknown they may die and push up the mortality rate.

Relevant figures from the actual paper:

Bottom line, the paper adds to the data available; it neither establishes a final death rate for the disease nor reports a figure lower than 1% but instead higher. This is an almost perfect example of how information in a medical journal becomes misinformation once it has been through the hands of a so called journalist and then gets quoted on social media. Never believe a headline medical story until you have tracked down and read the original underlying paper that prompted the story.

[angrybird]

How about: Never believe anything you read on the internet or see on TV.  99% of it is disinformation in one way or another 

[edy]

So I am seeing a bunch of different names for this... apparently "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" is now the virus (or disease?) previously known by the provisional name 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), or COVID-19!?!   

Is that to highlight that it produces SARS disease and is basically SARS version 2? Weren't SARS and MERS also coronaviruses? But they were named differently... one based on severe acute, and other Middle East (geographic label)... perhaps those weren't the final names?!?

[Bud]

The tonality of CBC, a major Canadian TV broadcaster and government puppet, has changed from the rosy "no worries" propaganda to "it is not a question that the virus will not come, it is when it will come" and "you may need to stock some food and supplies for at least two weeks". So much about listening to and trusting official sources. We have to take care of ourselves and follow our own judgement.

[carloserodriguez]

 
- there is the bat derived servere acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus SARS Cov.
- then the new one is server acute respiratory syndrome Corona virus 2. SARS-Cov-2.
- the new Corona strain causes the COVID-19 decease.
 Both are Corona family of viruses..

[angrybird]

Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

[purfield]

At least with influenza we have vaccines that are sometimes effective.  No such thing with COVID19 for a while.  We are all susceptible. 

[Bud]

Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

You are so sure your place this time around will not go to a lock down like those cities in China.

[Nominal Animal]

(I've been isolating myself this week also, in case I happened to be a carrier.  I might have a slight cold, and no need to mingle with people, so it has been quite easy.)

[carloserodriguez]

You just don't understand the difference. We have partial antibodies for the Influenza and we get also the yearly derived booster. This protects the general population and does not causes major labor disruption. The flu kills many of the very old and very ill even with the yearly vaccine.

 Now we have a virus that no one is inmune. So it's spreading like wild fire and killing 2% of infected. Very similar to the regular Flu.

  So if you still don't understand, let's clarify.
  This are just numbers to explain the comparison.

FOLLOWING IS JUST NUMBER TO POINT A CROSS:

-IN ONE YEAR.   So if the flu kills 60,000 in the USA USING 2% that is about 3,000,000 got sick and 60'000 died even with the helper vaccine.

  No let's say COVID19. How many?  No vaccine, no immunity. This means more people will get it. How many? China had to shut down an entire city o about 30,000,000 million no one in no one out no planes, no ships. And the virus still spread world wide.  So it's just been in the USA for 6 weeks. 
 The nursing home is Seattle is having about a mortality rate of 20%. Yes old and un-healthy will have about a 14 to 20% mortality rate if we don't stop exposure.
The infected healthy recover and many need strong antiviral cocktails to overcome and also some recover after two weeks.
 So let's say the infection rate, if we don take aggressive measures to stop infection, is twice as many will get some form of Corv19. The use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu on2%.
 That means 60,000 million will get I'll. And  120,000 will die. One don't take a break e measures to stop the spread.
The USA has about 24,000,000 elderly, living in close quarters
The Flu infected 3,000,000 US even with vaccine.
Corv19 will Infect theoretically anyone exposed with no immunity.
So let say we are lucky.  The flue infected 1%.  Corv19 let say it infects 10% of us population.
That is30,000,000 people. And 2% will die. So that means 600,000 people will die.
600,000
600,000.
But that number is way wrong. Because Corv19 is killing at a 14% rate if you Are elderly or have some other serious health issue like heart disease or diabetes.
So let's say 10% are from the elderly group.
That is 24,000,000 x 10%=  2,400,000 elderly will die.

 That is just rough math if we can not stop the I vection rate to levels of the Flu.
 Since we have no Vaccine, and no immunity yet severe measure will have to be input in place just like China did.

 If we don't do what China did, rough math says 3,000,000 will die.

 DISCLAIMER. I DID THIS MATH ON THE FLY. SO DONT THROW ME UNDER THE BUS.  I JUST IN A HURRY TO GE HIS POSTED.  THIS. UMBERS IS WHY THE WORLD Iẞ REACTING IN THOSE WAYS TO STOP THE SPREAD.

[carloserodriguez]

How could 3,000,000 people in the USA could die.

You just don't understand the difference. We have partial antibodies for the Influenza and we get also the yearly derived booster. This protects the general population and does not causes major labor disruption. The flu kills many of the very old and very ill even with the yearly vaccine.

 Now we have a virus that no one is inmune. So it's spreading like wild fire and killing 2% of the infected. Very similar to the regular Flu.

  So if you still don't understand, let's clarify.
  This are just numbers to explain the comparison.

FOLLOWING IS JUST NUMBER MAKE THE TO POINT A CROSS:

-IN ONE YEAR.   So if the flu kills 60,000 in the USA USING 2% that is about 3,000,000 got sick and 60'000 died even with the helper vaccine.

  Now let's say COVID19. How many?  No vaccine, no immunity. This means more people will get it. How many? China had to shut down an entire city of about 30,000,000 million no one in no one out no planes, no ships. And the virus still spread world wide.  So it's just been in the USA for 6 weeks. 
 The nursing home is Seattle is having about a mortality rate of 20%. Yes old and un-healthy will have about a 14 to 20% mortality rate if we don't stop exposure.
The infected healthy recover and many need strong antiviral cocktails to overcome and also some recover after two weeks.
 So let's say the infection rate, if we dont take aggressive measures to stop infection, is just twice as many will get some form of Corv19. Then use the same mortality rate of the regular Flu of 2%.
 That means 60,000 million will get I'll. And  120,000 will die. If we don't take agresive measures to stop the spread.
The USA has about 24,000,000 elderly, living in close quarters.

The Flu infected 3,000,000 US even with vaccine.

Corv19 will Infect theoretically anyone exposed with no immunity.

So let say we are lucky.  The flue infected 1% of the US with large numbers vaccinated.
Corv19 let say it infects 10% of us population. It is realistic since we have no immunity.
That comes to 30,000,000 people. And 2% will die. So that means 600,000 people will die.
600,000
600,000.
But that number is likely way wrong. Because Corv19 is killing at a 14% rate if you Are elderly or have some other serious health issue like heart disease or diabetes.
So let's say 10% are from the elderly group.
That is 24,000,000 x 10%=  2,400,000 elderly will die.

 That is just rough math if we can not stop the I infection rate to levels below the seasonal  Flu.
 Since we have no Vaccine, and no immunity yet severe measure will have to be input in place just like China did.

 If we don't do what China did, rough math says 3,000,000 will die.

 DISCLAIMER. I DID THIS MATH ON THE FLY. SO DONT THROW ME UNDER THE BUS.  I JUST IN A HURRY TO GE HIS POSTED.  THIS. UMBERS IS WHY THE WORLD Iẞ REACTING IN THOSE WAYS TO STOP THE SPREAD.

[TerminalJack505]

Stocking up on food for an illness like this is just ridiculous.  Do you stock up on 2 weeks of food during influenza season? No! Not even 2 days worth!

Seeing that you are from Puerto Rico, I'm surprised you have such a lax attitude regarding emergency preparedness.

I live in a part of the US that is prone to both tornadoes and ice storms and I once lost my power for two weeks due to an ice storm.  At the time I was lucky enough to have a bunch of freeze dried backpacking food as well as a backpacking stove and fuel.

I was basically an "accidental prepper."

Obviously, I would have survived without the emergency food but it proved to be pretty convenient.  I was able to stay at home and eat nice warm meals.  I didn't have to go out and fight the crowds.  I remember friends telling me about the madness at the stores.  One friend said he had to drive into the next state (about 70 miles away) just to buy a power generator.

Since then I have always had extra freeze dried food "just in case."

The food from Mountain House (the company that produces the best freeze dried food, in my opinion) has a shelf-life of 30 years so you can pretty much just put it in a cabinet and forget it.  Out of curiosity, I just checked their website and they are completely out of stock of everything they sell.

[Marco]

No such thing with COVID19 for a while.

I wonder ... if lets say low dose interferon and ribavirin worked as a prophylactic would we even be told? It's expensive and you can't just scale production on a dime.

[Bud]

Delivery drivers will deliver whatever you bought to the entrance of your complex, and you can go downstairs to the entrance of your complex and grab it.

Even in a non locked down city it is still prudent to purchase using delivery services just to reduce contact.

Why i should be doing this when i simply can have supplies in my closet. Outside food may become expensive, delivery drivers may charge a premium, and the delivered food may be contaminated. This is literally inviting the virus straight into your house.