Author Topic: Covid 19 virus  (Read 47720 times)

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Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1400 on: March 26, 2020, 05:06:31 pm »
G20 countries to inject 5 Trillion USD into the economy..  [CNN]

Sure. Void money.

Anyway... some people were apparently claiming that Covid-19 crisis would have only a minor impact on economy.
A 5-trillion USD minor impact. That's almost pocket money indeed. :horse:
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 05:12:35 pm by SiliconWizard »
 

Offline Deni

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1401 on: March 26, 2020, 05:08:31 pm »
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

OK, perhpas he is, perhaps he is not - the same applies to all of us. But there was another link which, unfortunately, is pure data - no opinion. As you obviously missed it, here it is again:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?
 

Offline Kasper

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1402 on: March 26, 2020, 05:14:26 pm »
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.
Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.

Hmm, let's see if Kasper can give more info, but don't get all worked up. Said neighbours may have had a small party between themselves without inviting anyone not living in their house. In this case, it's not going to spread anything more.

Zen. ::)

Hope is good in a time like this, that's why I included 'small' when I described their party.  Just a few visitors was my guess.  I was more focused on them being outside drinking, making noise all day.

I think some people have made it their lifetime goal to do as little work as possible and I fear they believe spreading covid will help them accomplish that goal.  I don't think many people would be so callous but I have seen a lot of justifications for people not doing their best.  Everything from, "flu kills more and no one cares about that so why should I care about this", to "suicide kills 800,000 and covid will only kill 80,000 and if I don't socialize, I'll kill myself so my therapist said it's ok to socialize and their ex is a surgeon", to "it only affects old people so why do I have to isolate, they should isolate".  These are the same people that complain their welfare doesn't pay well enough.  I try to be understanding, times are tough, people are trying to cope but some of this is just maddening and the govt giving extra money to people who seem to contribute the least is annoying.  That being said, I am glad they are giving money directly to people instead of giving it to banks and saying (falsely) it will trickle down.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1403 on: March 26, 2020, 05:25:11 pm »
I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.
Your neighbours were stupid throwing a party. It goes against everyone keeping their distance. If everyone did the same, it would spread much more. Hopefully most people have more sense.

Hmm, let's see if Kasper can give more info, but don't get all worked up. Said neighbours may have had a small party between themselves without inviting anyone not living in their house. In this case, it's not going to spread anything more.

Zen. ::)

Hope is good in a time like this, that's why I included 'small' when I described their party.  Just a few visitors was my guess.  I was more focused on them being outside drinking, making noise all day.

Ouch. If there was any visitor, then it's definitely bad. :--
Was being too optimistic here maybe.

I think some people have made it their lifetime goal to do as little work as possible and I fear they believe spreading covid will help them accomplish that goal.

There's a line between people happy to get some help in hard times, and people actively celebrating, or even making worse, a crisis that they think will help them become parasites.
I was again thinking of the former case - I hope I was more right than you are here, otherwise we're in big trouble...
 

Online imo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1404 on: March 26, 2020, 05:25:45 pm »
G20 countries to inject 5 Trillion USD into the economy..  [CNN]

Sure. Void money.

Anyway... some people were apparently claiming that Covid-19 crisis would have only a minor impact on economy.
A 5-trillion USD minor impact. That's almost pocket money indeed. :horse:

5 trillion USD is not a big number world-wide actually (25% US GDP afaik), the problem is those money are from large part not covered by production - they are going to "print out banknotes".
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 10:08:07 pm by imo »
 

Offline Kasper

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1405 on: March 26, 2020, 05:27:19 pm »
There's a line between people happy to get some help in hard times, and people actively celebrating, or even making worse, a crisis that they think will help them become parasites.
I was again thinking of the former case - I hope I was more right than you are here, otherwise we're in big trouble...

To be clear, I said I fear it and I don't think many people would do it.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1406 on: March 26, 2020, 05:36:46 pm »
It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?

1) The week's delay is significant; shit started to really hit the fan in Europe just approximately a week ago. Look back at that monitor site in about two months from now.

2) The strong actions (finally) taken are very likely to help reduce the death toll. This argument is discussed to death, but here it goes: if you don't do anything, a lot of people die. If you do, and manage to prevent a lot of death, then you can't prove anymore that a lot of people would have been dead, so the argument that "everybody freaked out for no reason" will continue to live forever. This is stupid, as there is a lot of actual expert analysis on the severity of the virus - and the fact that practically all governments around the world except Sweden agree with said experts.

It appears, Sweden is currently the only nation in the world running this human experiment, but it is very likely to change, as well, likely in a few days from now. So finally, no one can really say how many would have died if no actions (or very small actions) would have been taken, because finally everyone are taking strong actions, believing they are limiting the death toll - and most likely, they are absolutely correct about it.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 05:50:32 pm by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1407 on: March 26, 2020, 05:47:42 pm »
(...) because finally everyone are taking strong actions, believing they are limiting the death toll - and most likely, they are absolutely correct about it.

I don't think anyone can deny the effectiveness of confinement. It sure is a sudden and big disruption in both people's daily life and economy, but since virus spread is through human contact, I can't see how it would be possible that drastically limiting contacts would not drastically limit the spread.

Other actions, such as mass testing (when possible - which is currently not in most of Europe) are more debated, but I do think knowing is always better than not knowing to make the best decisions.

 

Offline Stray Electron

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1408 on: March 26, 2020, 05:47:43 pm »
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....
can't you do that online?
Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   ::)
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same..  :scared:

   No, the New Yorkers all all fleeing New York like rats leaving a sinking ship. A week ago there was only about 3 flights per day from New York to Florida but few days ago there were 196 flights. the number of people fleeing New York to go to Florida is increasing even faster than the virus. Do the math, 196 flights per day x an average of 250 passengers per flight.  The Florida governor is mad as hell about the number of untested people arriving here and has been trying to get the president to stop the flights but the airlines want the revenue and Trump is going to give them what they want. The airlines are going to ensure that the entire country is thoroughly infected but they'll have their blood money, er, revenue.

   BTW I just looked at the numbers in the bailout bill that the US Congress just passed. Big Business, mostly the airlines, are getting a $500million bailout but the hospitals are only getting $100million.  :--
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1409 on: March 26, 2020, 05:56:12 pm »
I don't think anyone can deny the effectiveness of confinement. It sure is a sudden and big disruption in both people's daily life and economy, but since virus spread is through human contact, I can't see how it would be possible that drastically limiting contacts would not drastically limit the spread.

For you or me, or 99% of EEVblog forum participants, this is blatantly obvious. In large general public however, there are significant percentages of people who

1) Suffer from a mental block or a psychological condition of not being able to think rationally at all in such case. It's their defence mechanism,
2) Narcissist psychopaths who simply don't give a shit about the others,
3) Simply people who are too stupid to understand, stupid not being used here as a way to belittle, but as an actual description of their cognitive skills required to reach the conclusion you or I reach.

A certain amount of such people are going to repeat the mantra about how every government overreacted, no matter how bad the outcome is. The better the outcome is (by strong actions), the larger this group will be, I guess. This limits the government's response: they fear that what if they seem to "overreact", they lose their voter base. They want to actually see with their own eyes that yes, the experts are right.

Needless to say, enforcing the actions by the police/military are only needed because of these groups of people. This is why the Finnish strategy, "we only give suggestions and trust people follow them" is a catastrophe. Luckily, it seems this strategy is changing today: for the first time, we will have an actual restriction enforced by the police and military starting from tomorrow (the isolation of the hotspot capital city area).
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 06:00:38 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Online Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1410 on: March 26, 2020, 06:00:08 pm »
If the UK does come out less scythed than other countries it will be parroted as the government did the right thing when in reality we just had the benefit of hindsight from other countries and and even stuffing that up acting a week late were a week ahead but with milder measures. We will see what today's numbers are but with limited testing we don't know the truth but current trends have not been rocketing with rates staying the same for a few days before increasing but the data is poor in my opinion and it's telling that they announce it as late as possible in the day.
 

Offline not1xor1

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1411 on: March 26, 2020, 06:01:40 pm »
Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

OK, perhpas he is, perhaps he is not - the same applies to all of us. But there was another link which, unfortunately, is pure data - no opinion. As you obviously missed it, here it is again:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

It's "mortality monitor" - organization that collects data about deceased persons for 20+ EU countries once per week and was established for the situation like thise - to detect
abnormal spikes in mortality rate. You can spot sinewave-like curve, where each winter "shakes up" 60+ generation, when the flu season starts. So far, no abnormalities (although data lag 1 week), even
some drop is visible. That's what I would like to understand or to be explained to me. Perhaps Swedes are doing right - running their lives, more or less, as before...?

life expectancy usually constantly increases a bit, but:

Quote
Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.

both data and other countries still lag behind
you have not realized yet that we are just still at the BEGINNING !!!
Italy luckily is on the right trend, but it will take yet a few more weeks to achieve a significant reduction both of new cases and deaths. Other countries are still climbing uphill at a fast pace.
Tomorrow US will become the first country in the world for cases figure (later for deaths).
During next week unfortunately other countries will get above Italy in this macabre rank.
Nothing to be happy about  :'(
 

Online imo

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1412 on: March 26, 2020, 06:05:23 pm »
..   No, the New Yorkers all all fleeing New York like rats leaving a sinking ship.
White House calls for everybody leaving NY should go into 14 days quarantine, afaik.. :)
 

Offline maginnovision

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1413 on: March 26, 2020, 06:11:24 pm »
After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....
can't you do that online?
Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   ::)
Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same..  :scared:

   No, the New Yorkers all all fleeing New York like rats leaving a sinking ship. A week ago there was only about 3 flights per day from New York to Florida but few days ago there were 196 flights. the number of people fleeing New York to go to Florida is increasing even faster than the virus. Do the math, 196 flights per day x an average of 250 passengers per flight.  The Florida governor is mad as hell about the number of untested people arriving here and has been trying to get the president to stop the flights but the airlines want the revenue and Trump is going to give them what they want. The airlines are going to ensure that the entire country is thoroughly infected but they'll have their blood money, er, revenue.

   BTW I just looked at the numbers in the bailout bill that the US Congress just passed. Big Business, mostly the airlines, are getting a $500million bailout but the hospitals are only getting $100million.  :--

Your concern should be directed to gov. Cuomo. Those numbers are Billions, not millions. Only 25B is for passenger airlines though with the same again available as loans for salaries, the 500B is mostly for loans to other businesses to stay in business and avoid firing people. Hospitals/staff get about 117B significantly MORE. Significant money for a multitude of other things but really pay attention to what's happening. We don't need people getting upset over perceived grievances that just aren't real. I'm more annoyed by them approving 25M for the politicians who still haven't even passed the bill. They say politicians and their families can't get money, but then make sure they get money. I'll add in researching some people are apparently mistaking that money as a raise and it's not. Not sure why people would assume it was.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/stimulus-package-details-coronavirus/index.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/whats-in-stimulus-package-coronavirus-149282
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 06:22:54 pm by maginnovision »
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1414 on: March 26, 2020, 06:15:11 pm »
Needless to say, enforcing the actions by the police/military are only needed because of these groups of people. This is why the Finnish strategy, "we only give suggestions and trust people follow them" is a catastrophe.

I don't know a lot about Finland, but a bit about nordic countries in general, and I would have expected people there to be a lot more well behaved than this. But maybe it's just a small fraction of all people (but in that case, that would not be as significant a problem as it is?) Or maybe the Finnish are just obnoxious? Or something. :P

 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1415 on: March 26, 2020, 06:17:45 pm »
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.
 

Online Simon

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1416 on: March 26, 2020, 06:19:21 pm »
Is there anywhere that shows data day to day country by country?
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1417 on: March 26, 2020, 06:21:40 pm »
Is there anywhere that shows data day to day country by country?

Several, put that yesterday already: https://virusncov.com/
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1418 on: March 26, 2020, 06:52:05 pm »
Needless to say, enforcing the actions by the police/military are only needed because of these groups of people. This is why the Finnish strategy, "we only give suggestions and trust people follow them" is a catastrophe.

I don't know a lot about Finland, but a bit about nordic countries in general, and I would have expected people there to be a lot more well behaved than this. But maybe it's just a small fraction of all people (but in that case, that would not be as significant a problem as it is?) Or maybe the Finnish are just obnoxious? Or something. :P

Finns are likely to protest somewhat less than what Italians did at the beginning, but many do protest here, like everywhere. So the difference isn't an order of magnitude thing, I think we are quite average here when it comes to being selfish at the expense of others. I think you need to look at certain Asian cultures to see a big difference in this behavior. Though, this being said, even these countries (and they especially!) rely on actually enforcing the rules by the fear of actual sanctions, even if they "might" not need it. Funny thing, isn't it?

"Losing face" is a big thing in some Asian cultures, and it works to some extent here, as well. But this can go both ways; at the early phase of this kind of epidemic, certain social bubbles form, and one of them is the "lallallaa overreaction, I don't want to show I'm scared, not overreacting, lallallaa". So in order not to lose face, you need to pretend living like usual. I think this happens everywhere in Europe to some non-meaningless extent, including Finland; just wittnessed today a few middle-aged guys at a store loudly protesting how stupid this overreaction is because "we have only one dead" (the correct number at that time was 3, as corrected by the cashier, and currently is 5). These people existing is the reason why we need to enforce the rules.

Actually we had some opinion poll numbers how the people here see the actions of the government. I forgot the source, but they were approximately like this: 45% thinks they underreact, 45% thinks they react in the correct proportion at the correct time; 10% thinks they overreact. It's this 10% of people who are dangerous as is and need to be actually enforced with sanctions. 0.1% wouldn't matter; 10% does.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 06:57:39 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Offline not1xor1

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1419 on: March 26, 2020, 06:54:46 pm »
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

yes... the reason is yet unclear...probably a combination of:
- being several weeks ahead in the pandemic,
- overcrowded hospitals in some parts of the country,
- using a different criteria for attributing deaths to COVID-19,
- missing lots of positive cases,
- bad air quality,
- old age,
- lacking of D vitamin (just read about that a couple of hours ago), etc.

BTW I just noticed that both Spain and France have alarming high rates too
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 07:01:44 pm by not1xor1 »
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1420 on: March 26, 2020, 07:08:47 pm »
Actually we had some opinion poll numbers how the people here see the actions of the government. I forgot the source, but they were approximately like this: 45% thinks they underreact, 45% thinks they react in the correct proportion at the correct time; 10% thinks they overreact. It's this 10% of people who are dangerous as is and need to be actually enforced with sanctions. 0.1% wouldn't matter; 10% does.

Ok I see...

Now with (from what I've just seen) 958 cases and 5 deaths, things don't look that bad for Finland so far. Don't get me wrong, I'm not underestimating this, and I agree anything should be done to keep this under control, but from figures alone, I can at least slightly understand why some people there would still think it's relatively "mild".
 

Offline TheNewLab

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1421 on: March 26, 2020, 07:10:30 pm »
at over 1400 postings in this topic in only a short number of days..

I guess I may share what Reuters came up with more detailed numbers. Some are estimates, Others are in my mind humorous, yet good.

I have not tallied what the sum of Reuters numbers are. Anyone else may do that.

The biggest concern are enough beds in hospitals, adequate resuscitators, adequate PPE for health care works. YT search "Italy" filter "this week" or "this month" You will find a number of videos from Italian healthcare workers.

Here are the Reuters numbers:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-bill-contents-idUSKBN21D2CQ

In a way I want to say "just chill out" However, Some fear may be healthy. most of what is suggested is good hygiene. Others, are simple to practice, except, er, uh..Not touching your face. That's the most difficult.

I feel, focusing on facts are best, as it is the unknown creates the greatest fear.

 

Online Nusa

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1422 on: March 26, 2020, 07:15:43 pm »
@not1xor1: I don't know how much we can trust the published figures, but currently Italy has one of the highest death rate (deaths/total cases) with about 10%. This is gigantic.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries   now has a deaths/1M pop column in their charts, saving you from doing the math. Italy and Spain are way ahead of everyone else by that measure.
 

Offline 0xdeadbeef

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1423 on: March 26, 2020, 07:24:21 pm »
I guess it's somewhat futile to compare numbers or even ratios of different countries since it's unclear how many people are tested and how many infected/dead are actually reported.
Today the number of 410k totally tested was published in Germany, but at the same time our leading Corona expert claimed that 500k people would be tested per week while the number of a maximum of 160k tests per week was claimed only some days ago and now a number of up to 360k tests per week being possible was given by the public health insurance organization.
Anyway, the number of tested is very high in Germany, while I would assume it's rather low in countries like Iran. Actually, if I understand the numbers of the CDC correctly, even in the USA only around 100k tests were performed up to now. And of course it's highly questionable if illiberal states publish reliable numbers.
Trying is the first step towards failure - Homer J. Simpson
 

Offline maginnovision

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Re: Covid 19 virus
« Reply #1424 on: March 26, 2020, 07:40:11 pm »
What is an illiberal state?
 


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