Danny Hillis: Back to the future (of 1994)

[diracshore]

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/danny_hillis_back_to_the_future_of_1994.html

[EEVblog]

Very interesting!

Dave.

[saturation]

I'm not sure Hillis described anything new nor is his viewpoint unique, this is one of the tenets of the history of technology.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_technology

Consider what changes fire, wheel, plow, gun powder, plastics etc., caused during its emergence will show computers follow what other technologies did before it.  Even the rates of change is anticipated, each future technology being greater than the next. 

By the time of the Hillis TED talks, computers were already well established, as it began in the early 1980s; what he discussed is today called genetic algorithms and neural networks, and while a tool today, isn't the panacea he made it seem to be in 1990s.

Here's an example of where the history of technology can be applied: if neural networks were indeed to be revolutionary, it would have caused an explosion of learning machines and growth since its inception; which has not yet to be.  So clearly, some other key is missing, and current approaches to programming continue to study as much the fundamentals of network topologies and less practical implementations.  For practical solutions, most folks still rely on traditional defined algorithmic approaches, 18 years later, that would be truly a long time by what is known about rates of technological change.

[diracshore]

Much of what he discusses I have read in The Singularity is Near by Kurzweil. But the video predated that book by 5 years.

http://www.t-generation.ru/books/Raymond%20Kurzweil%20-%20The%20singularity%20is%20near.pdf

[saturation]

Thanks for the link.  Alvin Tofler popularized the speed of change and the fusion of man-machine back in the 1970s with 'Future Shock' and even before that, by Thomas Kuhn in 1962:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift

With roots back in 1947.  Of all, Kurzweil unfortunately, deserves least credit for simply being a derivative of the more unique works mentioned above, he uses that term 'paradigm shift' fairly loosely but never quotes Kuhn as the source.  Even the premise of 'singularity' was earlier than 1960s with the term cyborg and its implications.  Nevertheless, Kurzweil imparts a different spin on the same top, but given limited reading time, one maybe better served with more original thoughts.