General > General Technical Chat
Elon Musk is a nice chap
PlainName:
--- Quote from: wraper ---No, watch again. Fauci said you don't need a (flu) vaccine if you had an infection.
--- End quote ---
He was talking about flu there, no? If you get flu you don't get it again (until next year when it's mutated). With covid you stand a high chance of getting it again, and it mutates seemingly every 5 mins. And you're more likely to either die or be very seriously (like very) seriously ill with covid. It isn't flu; you can't apply flu solutions to it.
--- Quote ---COVID mutated into a way less lethal form
--- End quote ---
There is no reason why a mutation wouldn't go the other way given the right circumstances. So far we are lucky in that respect, and we can stay lucky by reducing the chance of mutations, which means minimising infections.
Zero999:
--- Quote from: tom66 on November 29, 2022, 09:14:07 am ---The worst mistake he made was telling people masks didn't work then changing his mind, but early data was that Covid was not spread particularly through aerosol droplets, but by small airborne particles, which masks (well, cheap surgical and fabric ones at least) don't provide much protection against. So it was the right decision at the time with what was known. It also had the probably intentional side effect of ensuring the medical staff could get them first, FAR more important. What else is there to criticise?
--- End quote ---
The unwillingness to objectively gather data, which might contradict public health policy and masks was a classic example.
There was never any strong evidence to support cloth masks did anything to stop the spread and there still isn't any. I personally don't have a big problem with wearing one. It's a slightly inconvenient, but if it makes others around me feel less anxious that's fine by me. The problem is, they never did any proper studies into masks. The ones I've seen which claim to, are flawed because there are other factors which could explain the results. I do know they don't work in schools based on data from Europe (Spain and Denmark if I remember rightly) when children over the age of 12 had to wear one, yet there was no decrease in infections in the 12 and overs. I suspect the results would be the same for adults in supermarkets, on aeroplanes, in restaurants etc.
--- Quote from: PlainName on November 29, 2022, 10:27:24 pm ---
--- Quote from: wraper ---No, watch again. Fauci said you don't need a (flu) vaccine if you had an infection.
--- End quote ---
He was talking about flu there, no? If you get flu you don't get it again (until next year when it's mutated). With covid you stand a high chance of getting it again, and it mutates seemingly every 5 mins. And you're more likely to either die or be very seriously (like very) seriously ill with covid. It isn't flu; you can't apply flu solutions to it.
--- Quote ---COVID mutated into a way less lethal form
--- End quote ---
There is no reason why a mutation wouldn't go the other way given the right circumstances. So far we are lucky in that respect, and we can stay lucky by reducing the chance of mutations, which means minimising infections.
--- End quote ---
The same is true for both viruses, more so for influenza which mutates more rapidly than SARS-Cov-2. If reinfection didn't occur, there wouldn't be an annual flu season.
The fact COVID cases haven't started rising exponentially this winter is proof of natural immunity. They probably will rise, as the season progresses, but not to the same extent as last year.
Whether it's more risky to get the COVID-19 or a vaccine, depends on the variant, previous infection, vaccination status, age, sex and co-morbidities. It's certainly true the vaccine was the less risky option for most adults, who hadn't been previously infected, pre-Omicron, but now it's not clear cut. It's certainly more risky for a healthy 15 year old boy, who's already been infected, to get vaccine, than the virus. The risk of myocarditis from the vaccine would definitely outweigh any harm from catching the virus again.
There is absolutely no evidence to support any benefit of vaccination in healthy adults, who have prior infection. Reinfection is milder in 99% of cases. If it didn't kill you or leave you with lasting damage the first time, it's highly unlikely to do so the second and much less likely after subsequent infections, whilst this risk of the vaccine doesn't change so much and is higher, if it's shortly after infection.
A big mistake is applying a one size fits all policy and not taking into account natural immunity. It's possible to be pro-vaccine, yet not be in favour of vaccinating everyone.
TimFox:
Here is my summary of the politics and history of the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines, looking at Pfizer and Moderna in the US.
(I have never voted for Trump, but I give credit where it is due.)
The virus was noticed in the US early in 2020.
When the lethality of that virus had become obvious in the spring of 2020, President Trump assembled a group of experts to suggest solutions.
My understanding is that they replied that a vaccine was required, but that vaccines take a long time to develop for a new pathogen.
Trump did not accept that estimate of a long time, and demanded a crash program.
"Operation Warp Speed", a joint operation of DHHS, DOD, and the private sector (although Pfizer proceeded without Federal funding) began in May, 2020 and was an unprecedented success in rapid development.
(The first measles vaccine took about 9 years.)
The initial budget was $10 billion, but it ended up at about $18 billion.
In June, 2020, the FDA announced that a vaccine would have to be at least 50% effective to be certified.
Pfizer and Moderna obtained purchase orders ahead of authorization to fund production.
Pfizer/BioN Tech and Moderna received initial "emergency" authorization for their vaccines in December, 2020.
Trump was pissed off, since this was a month after the presidential election of November, 2020.
With manufacturing and distribution logistics problems, the vaccine was rationed and I (at the age of 71, but otherwise healthy) had to wait until February, 2021 for my first shot.
Full approval of the Pfizer vaccines (for adults) followed in August, 2021, after a "priority review" by the FDA.
For that approval, the FDA noted 91% effectiveness in "preventing Covid disease", and the need to follow the risk in certain age groups for myocarditis and pericarditis.
Full approval for Moderna (for adults) followed thereafter in January, 2022.
For the newer and future variants, evolutionary biologists use "evolutionary strategy" as a metaphor for pathogen evolution.
If a pathogen mutates to be more virulent (contagious) but less lethal, it will spread more readily, not kill off its hosts, and lead in the germ derby over the previous variants: winning by natural selection.
coppice:
--- Quote from: PlainName on November 29, 2022, 10:27:24 pm ---
--- Quote ---COVID mutated into a way less lethal form
--- End quote ---
There is no reason why a mutation wouldn't go the other way given the right circumstances. So far we are lucky in that respect, and we can stay lucky by reducing the chance of mutations, which means minimising infections.
--- End quote ---
Actually there is a very good reason why its a lot less likely for a pathogen to become more lethal, rather than less. Lethality is not just undesirable for us, its very bad for something that needs us for its life cycle. Evolutionarily, its a losing strategy. Most lethal infections that rip through populations are spurious, rather than stable long term winning designs. Typically they've crossed for somewhere that they were not eliminating the very thing they need, to us.
wraper:
--- Quote from: PlainName on November 29, 2022, 10:27:24 pm ---
--- Quote from: wraper ---No, watch again. Fauci said you don't need a (flu) vaccine if you had an infection.
--- End quote ---
He was talking about flu there, no? If you get flu you don't get it again (until next year when it's mutated). With covid you stand a high chance of getting it again, and it mutates seemingly every 5 mins. And you're more likely to either die or be very seriously (like very) seriously ill with covid. It isn't flu; you can't apply flu solutions to it.
--- End quote ---
It's not about flu in particular, but a fact that generally virus infection causes immunity. Again, the question is why previous COVID infection is not taken into account when doing government backed vaccine efficiency studies while having this general knowledge about viruses. Do you not get it? You say COVID is different, but you cannot possibly know because there were no proper studies done to give a definite answer on that. It may very well be that taking vaccine has or has not significant advantage to those who already had in infection. But we don't actually know because of deeply flawed studies, which (totally unsuspicious coincidence) is advantegious to pharma companies as everyone is deemed to need a booster shot every so often.
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