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Elon Musk is a nice chap

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TimFox:
Double post

TimFox:

--- Quote from: coppice on November 29, 2022, 10:37:01 pm ---
--- Quote from: PlainName on November 29, 2022, 10:27:24 pm ---
--- Quote ---COVID mutated into a way less lethal form
--- End quote ---
There is no reason why a mutation wouldn't go the other way given the right circumstances. So far we are lucky in that respect, and we can stay lucky by reducing the chance of mutations, which means minimising infections.

--- End quote ---
Actually there is a very good reason why its a lot less likely for a pathogen to become more lethal, rather than less. Lethality is not just undesirable for us, its very bad for something that needs us for its life cycle. Evolutionarily, its a losing strategy. Most lethal infections that rip through populations are spurious, rather than stable long term winning designs. Typically they've crossed for somewhere that they were not eliminating the very thing they need, to us.

--- End quote ---

Like I said at the end of my long post above, that is the normal evolutionary strategy for a pathogen:  increase virulence, decrease lethality, that more viruses can spread!

tom66:

--- Quote from: PlainName on November 29, 2022, 10:27:24 pm ---He was talking about flu there, no? If you get flu you don't get it again (until next year when it's mutated). With covid you stand a high chance of getting it again, and it mutates seemingly every 5 mins. And you're more likely to either die or be very seriously (like very) seriously ill with covid. It isn't flu; you can't apply flu solutions to it.
--- End quote ---

This.  It just isn't the same.  Coronaviruses don't seem to convey anywhere near the same level of natural immunity as influenza.  People get colds every year often times caused by a familial relative of COVID. It might relate to the spike protein or something unique about the structure of the virus that gives it a competitive advantage.

wraper:

--- Quote from: tom66 on November 29, 2022, 10:55:58 pm ---
--- Quote from: PlainName on November 29, 2022, 10:27:24 pm ---He was talking about flu there, no? If you get flu you don't get it again (until next year when it's mutated). With covid you stand a high chance of getting it again, and it mutates seemingly every 5 mins. And you're more likely to either die or be very seriously (like very) seriously ill with covid. It isn't flu; you can't apply flu solutions to it.
--- End quote ---

This.  It just isn't the same.  Coronaviruses don't seem to convey anywhere near the same level of natural immunity as influenza.  People get colds every year often times caused by a familial relative of COVID. It might relate to the spike protein or something unique about the structure of the virus that gives it a competitive advantage.

--- End quote ---
Source: trust me bro. That it the problem. If government does not want scepticism on COVID vaccines, why they efing don't do proper studies with natural immunity taken into account?

Zero999:

--- Quote from: tom66 on November 29, 2022, 10:55:58 pm ---
--- Quote from: PlainName on November 29, 2022, 10:27:24 pm ---He was talking about flu there, no? If you get flu you don't get it again (until next year when it's mutated). With covid you stand a high chance of getting it again, and it mutates seemingly every 5 mins. And you're more likely to either die or be very seriously (like very) seriously ill with covid. It isn't flu; you can't apply flu solutions to it.
--- End quote ---

This.  It just isn't the same.  Coronaviruses don't seem to convey anywhere near the same level of natural immunity as influenza.  People get colds every year often times caused by a familial relative of COVID. It might relate to the spike protein or something unique about the structure of the virus that gives it a competitive advantage.

--- End quote ---
Where's the evidence to suggest that? There are numerous viruses which cause common cold symptoms: rhinovirus, RSV and influenza also cause common colds, not just other coronaviruses. There's the old myth that if you get the flu, you'll know about it because you'll feel really bad, but it's false: influenza can be very mild or even asymptomatic. It's highly unlikely you'll get the same cold virus year after year.


--- Quote from: coppice on November 29, 2022, 10:37:01 pm ---
--- Quote from: PlainName on November 29, 2022, 10:27:24 pm ---
--- Quote ---COVID mutated into a way less lethal form
--- End quote ---
There is no reason why a mutation wouldn't go the other way given the right circumstances. So far we are lucky in that respect, and we can stay lucky by reducing the chance of mutations, which means minimising infections.

--- End quote ---
Actually there is a very good reason why its a lot less likely for a pathogen to become more lethal, rather than less. Lethality is not just undesirable for us, its very bad for something that needs us for its life cycle. Evolutionarily, its a losing strategy. Most lethal infections that rip through populations are spurious, rather than stable long term winning designs. Typically they've crossed for somewhere that they were not eliminating the very thing they need, to us.

--- End quote ---
That's not always the case. It depends on how much of an incentive there is for the virus to be mild, in order to reproduce. In the case of SARS-Cov-2, transmission mostly occurred before the person felt too sick to go out, let alone dead and the infection fatality rate was relatively low. It was also widely spread by young and healthy people who went out and socialised. It did appear to become more deadly from the original strain, to alpha and delta, although it's not certain. It could have easily doubled in severity, without affecting its ability to spread. We definitely got lucky with Omicron.

Natural immunity is definitely a big factor. The fact that repeat infection is milder 99% of the time, means that once everyone has had it a couple of times, it'll become a mild disease, only killing the extremely vulnerable. This is why uncontacted tribes succumb to deadly epidemics of respiratory disease, when they make contact with outsiders. The viruses are just seasonal coronaviruses, RSV and influenza but are deadly because they lack natural immunity.

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