Author Topic: Elon Musk is a nice chap  (Read 144064 times)

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Offline nctnico

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #175 on: May 16, 2021, 11:29:19 am »
In the EU most car manufacturers HAVE TO canibalise their ICE sales in favour of BEVs to make sure they meet average CO2 emission limits. Except for Toyota; they sell enough hybrids (*) already not to need BEVs at all in order to meet average CO2 emission limits. It wouldn't surprise me if it turns out BEVs from European manufacturers are sold at a very low profit margin (or no profit at all) just to avoid paying the fines.

* One interesting fact is that Toyota doesn't have any diesel passenger cars in their line-up on their Dutch website. Other manufacturers like Volkswagen, Peugot, Citroen and Ford still offer diesel engines.
Then the 2030s ICE bans, are they reasonable or harmful to the consumer?
First of all those only apply to non-hybrid cars (which fits Toyota's strategy perfectly). Banning all hybrids as well is completely unrealistic. Secondly; what is going to hamper BEV adoption is the cost of charging infrastructure. If I look at my own situation (which is not special at all) a BEV is going to cost nearly double the money to 'fuel' compared to a Prius even with the highest fuel prices in the world! People won't accept that; keep in mind that fueling a car is the majority of the running costs per km. A car on hydrogen (only a little bit more expensive to fuel compared to a Prius) would be way cheaper for me compared to a BEV.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2021, 11:45:24 am by nctnico »
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Online Psi

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #176 on: May 16, 2021, 11:50:28 am »
If I look at my own situation (which is not special at all) a BEV is going to cost nearly double the money to 'fuel' compared to a Prius even with the highest fuel prices in the world! People won't accept that; keep in mind that fueling a car is the majority of the running costs per km. A car on hydrogen (only a little bit more expensive to fuel compared to a Prius) would be way cheaper for me compared to a BEV.

Can you share your math for that?  I'm interested to know why it that way for you. Seems odd.
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Offline sandalcandal

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #177 on: May 16, 2021, 12:06:59 pm »
If I look at my own situation (which is not special at all) a BEV is going to cost nearly double the money to 'fuel' compared to a Prius even with the highest fuel prices in the world! People won't accept that; keep in mind that fueling a car is the majority of the running costs per km. A car on hydrogen (only a little bit more expensive to fuel compared to a Prius) would be way cheaper for me compared to a BEV.
I am also very interested. It's quite hard to get numbers on things like this outside of living in the country.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #178 on: May 16, 2021, 02:08:15 pm »
If I look at my own situation (which is not special at all) a BEV is going to cost nearly double the money to 'fuel' compared to a Prius even with the highest fuel prices in the world! People won't accept that; keep in mind that fueling a car is the majority of the running costs per km. A car on hydrogen (only a little bit more expensive to fuel compared to a Prius) would be way cheaper for me compared to a BEV.
I am also very interested. It's quite hard to get numbers on things like this outside of living in the country.
An EV needs about 225Wh/km in realistic driving scenarios (highway and heater / airco on). With an average price of 65 eurocents per kWh (mixed low cost / fast public charging) that results in 14.5 cents per km. A Prius does 20km per liter in the same driving scenarios (based on a website which collects actual fuel consumption). With an average price of gasoline of 1.6 euro per liter that results in 8 cents per km. A car on hydrogen would likely cost me around 12 eurocents per km to fuel; assuming the specified range for the Toyota Mirai is 20% too optimistic and hydrogen costs 10 euro/kg.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2021, 02:14:06 pm by nctnico »
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Online bdunham7

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #179 on: May 16, 2021, 02:19:10 pm »
With an average price of 65 eurocents per kWh (mixed low cost / fast public charging) that results in 14.5 cents per km.

I would think it would make more sense to try and do something about that number rather than adopt hydrogen as a fuel.  How widespread is the situation that results in a 0.65 EUR/kW price for electricity?
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Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #180 on: May 16, 2021, 02:19:58 pm »
Interesting.  Worlds highest gas prices, and electricity looks like it also competes for highest in the world.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #181 on: May 16, 2021, 02:37:07 pm »
With an average price of 65 eurocents per kWh (mixed low cost / fast public charging) that results in 14.5 cents per km.

I would think it would make more sense to try and do something about that number rather than adopt hydrogen as a fuel.  How widespread is the situation that results in a 0.65 EUR/kW price for electricity?
Fast charging along the highway is around 80 eurocents / kWh. On the long trips we do that is unavoidable. Public charging from a charging point in the street costs around 40 eurocents / kWh. An additional unknown factor is what these prices are going to be like in the future. At this moment none of the charging operators make a profit so chances are these prices go up. In the NL charging point operators already got a warning from the government to be more clear about the charging prices upfront so people are not surprised by unexpected high charging costs. So it is not like they are competing to be the cheapest one; none can afford competing on price. On top of that there is no regulation on prices yet and it is not like you can choose a charging point operator for street charging. You have to do with the one you get and pay what they demand.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2021, 02:40:02 pm by nctnico »
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Online bdunham7

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #182 on: May 16, 2021, 04:57:21 pm »
At this moment none of the charging operators make a profit so chances are these prices go up.

More likely the chargers go away or are left to rot.

That's a widespread problem and I don't think you can ever make money with a standalone business selling electricity by the kWh at charging stations--the overhead is just too high, even if the space is provided at no cost.  You've discussed this issue before regarding your urban area, but what I wanted to know is what proportion of the NL population would be in this situation where it is not possible to charge your car in your own parking space with a charger  you own---even a wall-socket model?  And for those that do, how much is electricity per kWh at night?
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Offline james_s

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #183 on: May 16, 2021, 05:57:18 pm »
More likely the chargers go away or are left to rot.

That's a widespread problem and I don't think you can ever make money with a standalone business selling electricity by the kWh at charging stations--the overhead is just too high, even if the space is provided at no cost.  You've discussed this issue before regarding your urban area, but what I wanted to know is what proportion of the NL population would be in this situation where it is not possible to charge your car in your own parking space with a charger  you own---even a wall-socket model?  And for those that do, how much is electricity per kWh at night?

The chargers don't have to make a profit directly, they just have to be not too obscenely expensive to operate so that they can serve as a perk to encourage people to buy cars that can use them, or in the case of destination charging to encourage people to visit that destination. If I have an electric car and have a choice of two hotels or restaurants, one that provides complimentary charging and one that doesn't, all else being more or less equal which do you think I'm going to choose? The rapid chargers are to solve the "electric cars won't work from me because I like to take a longer trip now and then" and "I live in an apartment/condo and cannot charge at home" problems, they're not intended for regular day to day use by most people.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #184 on: May 16, 2021, 06:00:53 pm »
With an average price of 65 eurocents per kWh (mixed low cost / fast public charging) that results in 14.5 cents per km.

I would think it would make more sense to try and do something about that number rather than adopt hydrogen as a fuel.  How widespread is the situation that results in a 0.65 EUR/kW price for electricity?

Holy smokes! That's nearly 10 times what I pay for electricity!  :o

If I was paying that much, I'd have bought the largest solar array I could fit on my house years ago. Even running a gasoline powered generator doesn't cost that much per kWh here.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #185 on: May 16, 2021, 06:09:48 pm »
At this moment none of the charging operators make a profit so chances are these prices go up.

More likely the chargers go away or are left to rot.

That's a widespread problem and I don't think you can ever make money with a standalone business selling electricity by the kWh at charging stations--the overhead is just too high, even if the space is provided at no cost.  You've discussed this issue before regarding your urban area, but what I wanted to know is what proportion of the NL population would be in this situation where it is not possible to charge your car in your own parking space with a charger  you own---even a wall-socket model?  And for those that do, how much is electricity per kWh at night?
On average 70% of the households in the NL have to rely on public charging according to Fastned which is an operator of a fast charging network.

Price per kWh day/night is almost the same because the base load excess is send to Norway into a water reservoir and then retrieved when  more electricity is needed.

With an average price of 65 eurocents per kWh (mixed low cost / fast public charging) that results in 14.5 cents per km.
Holy smokes! That's nearly 10 times what I pay for electricity!  :o

If I was paying that much, I'd have bought the largest solar array I could fit on my house years ago. Even running a gasoline powered generator doesn't cost that much per kWh here.
Read more carefully: that is the price it would cost me to use public charging to run a BEV. Even if I could fit the largest solar system in the world in my back yard it won't do me any good because I can't get the electricity to my BEV.

The normal price I pay for electricity is around 23 eurocent /kWh including taxes and transport but excluding connection costs. The connection costs are factored in into the public charging prices though.

This is why it was such a brilliant move from Tesla to make charging free for the first customers; it kept the actual costs to drive a BEV hidden.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2021, 06:20:21 pm by nctnico »
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Offline sandalcandal

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #186 on: May 16, 2021, 06:18:06 pm »
On average 70% of the households in the NL has to rely on public charging.
And I assume that's due to people generally not having off-street parking available to them?
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Offline nctnico

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #187 on: May 16, 2021, 06:20:57 pm »
On average 70% of the households in the NL has to rely on public charging.
And I assume that's due to people generally not having off-street parking available to them?
Indeed.
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Offline james_s

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #188 on: May 16, 2021, 06:32:25 pm »
I sure am glad it isn't like that here. I absolutely hate parking on the street, and I wish they would abolish street parking in places like the old residential parts of Seattle where you get cars parked down both sides of a narrow street with barely enough space for a car to drive through in one direction. All residential structures should be mandated to have sufficient parking for each tenant to have at least one parking spot. Look at cars in those areas and they're always all banged up from people bumping into them trying to park. In recent years they've been building apartment buildings with not nearly enough parking in a misguided effort to discourage car ownership but all it does is cause people to clog the streets with parked cars. People want to drive private cars, they've made that very very clear and it is futile to wage war against that.
 

Online bdunham7

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #189 on: May 16, 2021, 06:38:08 pm »
The chargers don't have to make a profit directly,.

They do for a standalone business.  And the 'free' chargers offered as perks don't really work either because you can't rely on them being available--I've found they usually aren't there when I need them.  The only model that I think works is restricted access (home/workplace) charging without user billing or other things that drive up costs, supplemented by on-the-road DCFS at a significantly higher cost.  And even then I think the economics don't work for the paid charging systems at any sane price.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #190 on: May 16, 2021, 06:56:12 pm »
I sure am glad it isn't like that here. I absolutely hate parking on the street, and I wish they would abolish street parking in places like the old residential parts of Seattle where you get cars parked down both sides of a narrow street with barely enough space for a car to drive through in one direction. All residential structures should be mandated to have sufficient parking for each tenant to have at least one parking spot. Look at cars in those areas and they're always all banged up from people bumping into them trying to park.
Parallel parking usually isn't that problematic; it is the parking garages where cars are parked next to eachother where most of the damage happens. I still got a dent to fix in my car from a visit to Paris last December. Speaking of the French: they have this odd behaviour to push cars in front and/or in the back of the car in order to make space for parallel parking. It doesn't go with a lot of violence but they do give the bumpers some practise. It is quite interesting to watch it happen.

Quote
In recent years they've been building apartment buildings with not nearly enough parking in a misguided effort to discourage car ownership but all it does is cause people to clog the streets with parked cars. People want to drive private cars, they've made that very very clear and it is futile to wage war against that.
They have been trying that in the NL as well but in general it doesn't work. The street where I live has a structural lack of parking spaces. In some other streets the city got wise enough to add extra parking spots because people kept parking on the side of the road anyway.
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Offline Black Phoenix

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #191 on: May 17, 2021, 12:21:29 am »
Parallel parking usually isn't that problematic; it is the parking garages where cars are parked next to eachother where most of the damage happens. I still got a dent to fix in my car from a visit to Paris last December. Speaking of the French: they have this odd behaviour to push cars in front and/or in the back of the car in order to make space for parallel parking. It doesn't go with a lot of violence but they do give the bumpers some practise. It is quite interesting to watch it happen.

Spanish is the same thing, that's why normally in Madrid you see small cheap hatchbacks all scuffed up. They park the cars and if the street is levelled they leave the car without parking brakes or a gear engaged.  If you want to park, you get out of the car, move the front one a little, the back one a little and you got yourself a parking spot. If still not enough, bump a little in front and in the back.

Parking in old cities that have roads that when they were constructed never accounted for the evolution of times is totally normal. Lisbon is the same with their very small roads without parking spots and small high sidewalls. Can't park because you don't have space, people can't walk because of the small sidewalls path they have available and going into the street is dangerous because of the incoming cars. Only solution is closing the road, and people will get mad. With lack of parking and so on, what happens is that everyone will park the cars whatever space they find, since as james_s one of the objectives of most of the Portuguese is having a private car and to own a house. Not rent, although times been changing and my generation and the next one see a lot more adoption in renting, specially in high desirable cities were price is prohibitive. But still they will amass money to be able to build a good house at their hometown or somewhere outside of the city, normally in the country side.

I understand cities wanting to reduce pollution and the hassle of cars moving in the city by providing public transportation. But people still want to have their own car and park it whatever they want and leave when they want, without having to be tie up to schedules of the transportation or feeling like a sardine inside a can during rush hours. I see that from living in Shenzhen, and how I miss my car and the freedom of movement it provides me. Transportation here is good, heck 100x better than in Lisbon, I can really move anywhere without needing a car, all transportation is electric (bus, metro and taxis, all are EVs. Even the trash trucks. Dump construction trucks too are starting to turn into EVs) but still a car is a car. My own space, not having to worry about the guy on the side taking too much space on the bench, or the sweaty one in front of me with a intense sweat scent or even the other one who talks to loud or is watching a video on bilibili with the speakers on when the rules strictly ask him not to do it. Specially when you have a baby kid, that takes the house with him every time we go out, having to carry everything on a big back pack plus the car and still is not enough.

And that's a mentality a lot of people share. Even the prospect of a future with self driving cars is something I don't desire. I love to drive, and even here when someone of the family don't want to I'm always the first one to say I will. My wife hates it, if there is a chance to drive or not drive, 99% of the time she chooses not driving.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2021, 12:34:31 am by Black Phoenix »
 
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Offline james_s

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #192 on: May 17, 2021, 12:24:22 am »
They do for a standalone business.  And the 'free' chargers offered as perks don't really work either because you can't rely on them being available--I've found they usually aren't there when I need them.  The only model that I think works is restricted access (home/workplace) charging without user billing or other things that drive up costs, supplemented by on-the-road DCFS at a significantly higher cost.  And even then I think the economics don't work for the paid charging systems at any sane price.

But the chargers are (as far as I know) owned and operated by Tesla, they're a perk that you pay for as part of the purchase price of the car, and a network of chargers allows them to sell a lot more cars, at least that is what they're banking on. The destination chargers are provided at no cost to businesses that are willing to host them but the business has to provide the electricity. It seems to be working ok around here. When my dad had his Model Y he couldn't charge at his condo so he used a mix of super chargers, destination chargers at restaurants and such and plugging in at the yacht club where he moored his sailboat. I never discussed all that with him directly but he loved the car and seemed really happy with it. A charger ought to require very little maintenance once it's installed, they're automated and not manned by any sort of attendant, and electricity is cheap enough in a lot of cases that it's not any great burden. I calculated charging the Model Y to 100% from completely flat would cost me about $8. I just spent $54 to fill my car with gasoline the other day for roughly the same range.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #193 on: May 17, 2021, 12:29:43 am »
Parallel parking usually isn't that problematic; it is the parking garages where cars are parked next to eachother where most of the damage happens. I still got a dent to fix in my car from a visit to Paris last December. Speaking of the French: they have this odd behaviour to push cars in front and/or in the back of the car in order to make space for parallel parking. It doesn't go with a lot of violence but they do give the bumpers some practise. It is quite interesting to watch it happen.

Maybe you can find a way to teach people in Seattle how it's done, because while I personally am able to parallel park without a great deal of difficulty, that doesn't seem to be the norm. I'm not kidding when I say the cars get beat up, you see lots of crunched corners of bumpers, or rather the flimsy plastic things that pass as bumpers these days. Lots of cracked turn signal lenses, scrapes on the sides and broken side view mirrors from cars trying to squeeze down the middle of a narrow lane with cars parked tightly on both sides. Lots of curb rash on rims too due to the ridiculous trend of gigantic wheels with low profile tires that don't stick out enough to protect the expensive alloy rim.

If I lived in France I'd get an old beater and weld up some big steel bumpers. Maybe weld on some sharp stubby spikes to discourage pushing the thing.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #194 on: May 17, 2021, 12:42:47 am »
I understand cities wanting to reduce pollution and the hassle of cars moving in the city by providing public transportation. But people still want to have their own car and park it whatever they want and leave when they want, without having to be tie up to schedules of the transportation or feeling like a sardine inside a can during rush hours. I see that from living in Shenzhen, and how I miss my car and the freedom of movement it provides me. Transportation here is good, heck 100x better than in Lisbon, I can really move anywhere without needing a car, all transportation is electric (bus, metro and taxis, all are EVs. Even the trash trucks. Dump construction trucks too are starting to turn into EVs) but still a car is a car. My own space, not having to worry about the guy on the side taking too much space on the bench, or the sweaty one in front of me with a intense sweat scent or even the other one who talks to loud or is watching a video on bilibili with the speakers on when the rules strictly ask him not to do it.

And that's a mentality a lot of people share. Even the prospect of a future with self driving cars is something I don't desire. I love to drive, and even here when someone of the family don't want to I'm always the first one to say I will. My wife hates it, if there is a chance to drive or not drive, 99% of the time she chooses not driving.

I take public transit to get to work, or I did prior to the pandemic and it works well for that. The problem with public transit is that it doesn't go everywhere, and it doesn't always go when you need it, and sometimes you have to take a ridiculously convoluted trip somewhere that takes many times longer than it would to just drive. If public transit works fine for 90% of the journey that doesn't matter if you still end up needing a car for 10% of it. If I could carry my car with me somehow when I take the bus and use the car for only the parts of the trip the bus can't do then that would work, but I can't do that. Services like Uber and Lyft are nice for filling those gaps, although in some places the established taxi services and corrupt politicians that enable the protectionism take issue with that.

Self driving cars are something I have absolutely zero interest in. A large part of owning a car is I get to drive the car. There is talk of self driving cars that have no manual controls in them and that is a total non-starter for me, if I don't even get to drive it I see no reason at all to own a car. It's true there are times like crawling through heavy traffic where a car that can drive itself would be nice, but even so it doesn't really seem worth the trouble. Frankly I think fully autonomous cars a decade or more away and I don't think a system like Tesla is using that relies completely on cameras is ever going to be adequate. They can train it for decades and there will still be edge cases it can't deal with that will happen to somebody somewhere often enough that the system is not practical. I've said this before, but an automated system that requires a human to be ready to take over at any time is fundamentally flawed. There is nothing more boring than supervising an automated system that doesn't require you to do anything 99% of the time. People will zone out, nap, play with their phone, stare aimlessly out the side window, etc. It is totally unrealistic to expect them to be ready to take over the moment something goes wrong.
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #195 on: May 17, 2021, 03:25:16 am »
Frankly I think fully autonomous cars a decade or more away and I don't think a system like Tesla is using that relies completely on cameras is ever going to be adequate. They can train it for decades and there will still be edge cases it can't deal with that will happen to somebody somewhere often enough that the system is not practical. I've said this before, but an automated system that requires a human to be ready to take over at any time is fundamentally flawed. There is nothing more boring than supervising an automated system that doesn't require you to do anything 99% of the time. People will zone out, nap, play with their phone, stare aimlessly out the side window, etc. It is totally unrealistic to expect them to be ready to take over the moment something goes wrong.

Yep, this is inevitable.
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #196 on: May 17, 2021, 03:30:51 am »
If I look at my own situation (which is not special at all) a BEV is going to cost nearly double the money to 'fuel' compared to a Prius even with the highest fuel prices in the world! People won't accept that; keep in mind that fueling a car is the majority of the running costs per km. A car on hydrogen (only a little bit more expensive to fuel compared to a Prius) would be way cheaper for me compared to a BEV.
Can you share your math for that?  I'm interested to know why it that way for you. Seems odd.

It's odd because he is talking about charging at convenient (and very expensive) fast charging stations.
The HUGE benefit for EV's comes when you can charge it at home or work (or have access to realistic pricing charge stations). If you are 100% reliant upon expensive public station then you are screwed and you wouldn't buy an EV in that case.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #197 on: May 17, 2021, 03:35:59 am »
Frankly I think fully autonomous cars a decade or more away and I don't think a system like Tesla is using that relies completely on cameras is ever going to be adequate. They can train it for decades and there will still be edge cases it can't deal with that will happen to somebody somewhere often enough that the system is not practical. I've said this before, but an automated system that requires a human to be ready to take over at any time is fundamentally flawed. There is nothing more boring than supervising an automated system that doesn't require you to do anything 99% of the time. People will zone out, nap, play with their phone, stare aimlessly out the side window, etc. It is totally unrealistic to expect them to be ready to take over the moment something goes wrong.

Yep, this is inevitable.

My only disagreement comes because I suspect that few drivers of non-automated cars are 100% effective.  They fail on edge cases too, and also mainstream cases because of boredom, distraction , medical issues and a host of other problems.  In an ideal world the automated driving system doesn't have to be perfect just better than human drivers.  These systems have an advantage.  With no ego they should have no problem pulling safely to the side and stopping when it is raining too hard, too foggy, too slick or any number other problems where human drivers readily proceed beyond their skills
 
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Offline helius

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #198 on: May 17, 2021, 03:51:53 am »
no ego
Did you somehow overlook the title of the thread and "Elon Musk"?
 

Offline sandalcandal

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Re: Elon Musk is delusional
« Reply #199 on: May 17, 2021, 04:50:14 am »
If I look at my own situation (which is not special at all) a BEV is going to cost nearly double the money to 'fuel' compared to a Prius even with the highest fuel prices in the world! People won't accept that; keep in mind that fueling a car is the majority of the running costs per km. A car on hydrogen (only a little bit more expensive to fuel compared to a Prius) would be way cheaper for me compared to a BEV.
Can you share your math for that?  I'm interested to know why it that way for you. Seems odd.

It's odd because he is talking about charging at convenient (and very expensive) fast charging stations.
The HUGE benefit for EV's comes when you can charge it at home or work (or have access to realistic pricing charge stations). If you are 100% reliant upon expensive public station then you are screwed and you wouldn't buy an EV in that case.
I think the point is that for the majority people in Europe (due to living in towns and cities that were planned and built hundreds of years ago and more) there aren't spaces for cars at home (or work too likely) that allow for private charging. As a result most people in living in Europe would be dependent on public charging.

Frankly I think fully autonomous cars a decade or more away and I don't think a system like Tesla is using that relies completely on cameras is ever going to be adequate. They can train it for decades and there will still be edge cases it can't deal with that will happen to somebody somewhere often enough that the system is not practical. I've said this before, but an automated system that requires a human to be ready to take over at any time is fundamentally flawed. There is nothing more boring than supervising an automated system that doesn't require you to do anything 99% of the time. People will zone out, nap, play with their phone, stare aimlessly out the side window, etc. It is totally unrealistic to expect them to be ready to take over the moment something goes wrong.

Yep, this is inevitable.
I'm pretty sure this point is known and acknowledged as a challenge. 10:27, 13:09. Sandy is blaming poor road markings for difficulties but Elon is asserting that an autonomous driving system must remain safe under any condition whatsoever.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2021, 05:00:55 am by sandalcandal »
Disclosure: Involved in electric vehicle and energy storage system technologies
 


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