Author Topic: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.  (Read 3251 times)

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Online BrianHG

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Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« on: April 22, 2021, 05:36:51 pm »
 :palm: Come on... Seriously...  Talk about a dangerous waste of money...



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Online BrianHG

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2021, 05:43:51 pm »
Take a look at that full disco-christmas lighting effect.  I would bet that those with mild motion sickness in those tunnels will either vomit or have seizures in those tunnels, even at 29mph.

That embarrassing junk of a project needs to have those dangerous tunnels filled in with concrete, or, repurposed as a sewer system.

 
« Last Edit: April 22, 2021, 05:46:33 pm by BrianHG »
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Online Alex Eisenhut

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2021, 05:58:38 pm »
I thought this was a solved problem. Now to find a Jenny Agutter lookalike.

duh
 

Online BrianHG

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2021, 06:14:40 pm »
I bet that Logan's Run movie prop could go faster than 29mph...
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Online Alex Eisenhut

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2021, 06:29:37 pm »
Like Star Trek doors, the prop probably relied on off-camera operators to push them along... probably like a dolly.

I think the travel tube from Space:1999 is closer to what the Hyperloop shoulda been.

Maybe someone can email this to Elon...

https://catacombs.space1999.net/cybermuseum/MATN/matn1014.html
duh
 

Offline bson

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2021, 07:58:24 pm »
More hassle to ride that thing than just walk the three blocks to the convention center.  Talk about a solution looking for a problem...
 

Offline Domagoj T

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2021, 08:11:01 pm »
Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?
No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).
 
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Offline wraper

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2021, 02:56:47 am »
Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?
No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).
You certainly did your research to claim that... Oh wait, you did not. https://www.boringcompany.com/loop
Quote
Loop has no internal touch hazards (e.g. a 600 volt third rail), enabling safe evacuation, minimizing potential fire sources, and eliminating any dangerous effects of (unlikely) water intrusion (Teslas can safely handle some rain). In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate.
Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system.  The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments.
Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi.
Loop tunnels are fully illuminated - and if an incident does occur, Loop has 100% camera coverage (no blind spots!)
Quote
in fact the cars block the only way out.
In fact nothing prevents you from leaving on your own foot  :palm:.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2021, 03:41:22 am by wraper »
 

Offline Ed.Kloonk

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2021, 04:16:47 am »
I thought this was a solved problem. Now to find a Jenny Agutter lookalike.



 :)

I watched American Werewolf in London yesterday.

[attachimg=1]
« Last Edit: April 23, 2021, 04:24:38 am by Ed.Kloonk »
 

Offline wraper

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2021, 04:34:51 am »
I would rather call him an obsessed sceptic, there is little common sense IMHO.


 
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Online Alex Eisenhut

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2021, 04:50:12 am »

I watched American Werewolf in London yesterday.


She was also in two Avengers movies.
duh
 
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Online 2N3055

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2021, 10:52:54 am »
Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?
No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).
You certainly did your research to claim that... Oh wait, you did not. https://www.boringcompany.com/loop
Quote
Loop has no internal touch hazards (e.g. a 600 volt third rail), enabling safe evacuation, minimizing potential fire sources, and eliminating any dangerous effects of (unlikely) water intrusion (Teslas can safely handle some rain). In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate.
Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system.  The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments.
Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi.
Loop tunnels are fully illuminated - and if an incident does occur, Loop has 100% camera coverage (no blind spots!)
Quote
in fact the cars block the only way out.
In fact nothing prevents you from leaving on your own foot  :palm:.

You never saw a burning car, especially electric Tesla, that fire department procedure is to evacuate everybody at safe distance and let it burn until it stops. Ventilation will act to make thing burn more nicely, bringing fresh oxygen.

https://firesciencereviews.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40038-015-0006-6

Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him. If they fail  it's their fault, if they actually make it work, it is his genius and vision. He's full of crap... But in today's faker society he's the hero of all the fakers...
 
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Offline wraper

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2021, 11:32:48 am »
You never saw a burning car, especially electric Tesla,
Tesla model 3 is basically the safest car you can get in regards of caching fire. Also if Tesla catches fire, it propagates much slower than in a regular car.
Quote
that fire department procedure is to evacuate everybody at safe distance and let it burn until it stops.
BS, it's nothing like that. https://www.usfa.fema.gov/training/coffee_break/061819.html
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2016_Model_S_Emergency_Response_Guide_en.pdf
Quote
Ventilation will act to make thing burn more nicely, bringing fresh oxygen.
So you should let people die from breathing smoke.
Quote
Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him. If they fail  it's their fault, if they actually make it work, it is his genius and vision. He's full of crap...
uninformed BS, in the meantime you can watch a livestream where his company launches astronauts to ISS https://youtu.be/oqA0ndN-rDc
« Last Edit: April 23, 2021, 11:48:48 am by wraper »
 
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Online 2N3055

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2021, 11:54:05 am »
You never saw a burning car, especially electric Tesla,
Tesla model 3 is basically the safest car you can get in regards of caching fire. Also if Tesla catches fire, it propagates much slower than in a regular car.
Quote
that fire department procedure is to evacuate everybody at safe distance and let it burn until it stops.
BS, it's nothing like that. https://www.usfa.fema.gov/training/coffee_break/061819.html
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/Model_3_Emergency_Response_Sheet_en.pdf
Quote
Ventilation will act to make thing burn more nicely, bringing fresh oxygen.
So you should let people die from breathing smoke.
Quote
Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him. If they fail  it's their fault, if they actually make it work, it is his genius and vision. He's full of crap...
uninformed BS, in the meantime you can watch a livestream where his company launches astronauts to ISS https://youtu.be/oqA0ndN-rDc

Yeah, we know you're the biggest Musk's fan of the hemisphere...
I said gasoline and mentioned that electric is even worse if it gets on fire... Stop misdirecting..

Read that paper I linked... And despite fanboyism, fire depts will work as USFD mandates, not Tesla... And read what amounts of water are needed.
Vehicle fire requires fire dept personnel and equipment. How will you get people and equipment in and out if it is blocked.

Yes, his company. The work of hundreds of engineers that stood on shoulders of giants and used combined experience of 50 years of space industry research. It is their accomplishment, not his. Like I said.
So far they are doing good. We'll see in 20 years, how good they really were. Numbers will tell..

Real world research on EV fires in tunel.

https://hagerbach.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/news/Road_tunnel_safety_Hazards_of_electric_vehicle_fires_Mellert_2018.pdf

They clearly say energy release is similar to gasoline vehicle, but amount of water is much more, and there are other haphazards. But that is for a classic tunnel that has much larger volume and escape routes.. Also biggest problem is cleanup, with no space for specialized equipment and crew.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2021, 12:00:54 pm by 2N3055 »
 

Offline wraper

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2021, 12:03:03 pm »
Read that paper I linked... And despite fanboyism,
Providing a link to a very long document without bringing any points it contains is the best argument ever. And I bet you barely read it yourself.
Quote
fire depts will work as USFD mandates, not Tesla... And read what amounts of water are needed.
I literally provided you a link to US fire administration  :palm:
 
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Online BrianHG

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2021, 12:10:53 pm »
Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?
No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).
You certainly did your research to claim that... Oh wait, you did not. https://www.boringcompany.com/loop
Quote
Loop has no internal touch hazards (e.g. a 600 volt third rail), enabling safe evacuation, minimizing potential fire sources, and eliminating any dangerous effects of (unlikely) water intrusion (Teslas can safely handle some rain). In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate.
Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system.  The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments.
Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi.
Loop tunnels are fully illuminated - and if an incident does occur, Loop has 100% camera coverage (no blind spots!)
Quote
in fact the cars block the only way out.
In fact nothing prevents you from leaving on your own foot  :palm:.

I will not trust this system until I see an example evacuation during a fire, seeing actual two 400 pound Americans successfully opening the Tesla car door, one one each side of the car, get out, and evacuate the tunnel past other Tesla cars in the tunnel in time while the ventilation system leaves them enough clean breathable air at standing height with that tiny diameter tunnel's height.  If they are so confident of the system, show me an example video of an actual test fire care of this tiny tunnel, or show example past cases of such a setup.  A veritably accurate computer simulation would be acceptable too.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2021, 12:12:54 pm by BrianHG »
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Online fourfathom

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #16 on: April 26, 2021, 12:54:39 am »
Yes, his company. The work of hundreds of engineers that stood on shoulders of giants and used combined experience of 50 years of space industry research. It is their accomplishment, not his.

Did Musk claim that he personally designed the SpaceX rockets?  If not, this is a rather silly complaint.  He hired smart people to use existing technology and expand on it.  Just like most companies.  And it wouldn't have happened without him.  I call that an huge accomplishment and give him tons of credit for it.
 
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Offline wraper

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #17 on: April 26, 2021, 04:28:42 am »
Yes, his company. The work of hundreds of engineers that stood on shoulders of giants and used combined experience of 50 years of space industry research. It is their accomplishment, not his.

Did Musk claim that he personally designed the SpaceX rockets?  If not, this is a rather silly complaint.  He hired smart people to use existing technology and expand on it.  Just like most companies.  And it wouldn't have happened without him.  I call that an huge accomplishment and give him tons of credit for it.
I guess by being purist he uses electronic components made by himself from wood. Otherwise it would be "standing on shoulders of giants and using combined experience of 50 years of industry research."
 

Offline bson

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2021, 05:18:55 am »
Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him.
But in this case the Las Vegas Convention Center contracted the Boring Company to build this tunnel for them.  I'm sure they got exactly what they wanted - and more importantly paid for.  It's just a novelty project to create interest and draw conventions.  Not the kind of con you're thinking of.
 

Offline coppercone2

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2021, 05:26:50 am »
American werewolf in london was a suprizing movie. I watched it towards the end of all the classic movies and it made me quite interested in the british metro system and for some reason 80's British culture or the depiction of it. Not sure why. Nothing else made me quite wonder what the hell I would be doing if I ended up in england. Nothing to do with the werewolf even, its just a weird set. maybe the 80's england was just really weird
« Last Edit: April 26, 2021, 05:30:16 am by coppercone2 »
 

Offline sandalcandal

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2021, 04:26:49 pm »
I ended up going down the rabbit hole a bit again on this one.

Trying to find what the actual cost was, as per the video TBC (The Boring Company) has cost listed as $47M, some more reputable sources tend to have estimated cost to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) at $52.5M
Richard N. Velotta  "Get a close look at shuttle system 40 feet beneath the convention center" Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021

Digging further in, it seems the $52.5M figure was first obtained from early estimates when the project was initially being negotiated back in early 2019. Earliest mention of this figure I could find was in the Vegas Inc - Las Vegas Sun, 14 May 2019, with the figure coming from the LVCVA CEO Steve Hill
Bryan Horwath "With tourism board near vote on tunnel transport system, Goodman raises objections" VEGAS INC, 14 May 2019

$55M seems to be an upper estimate for a $33M to $55M range from earlier in March 2019. Official press release from LVCVA here:
Jackie Dennis "LVCVA Board of Directors Votes to Move Forward with Elon Musk's The Boring Company" LVCVA, 12 March 2019
Note: The press release is dated March 12 but the earliest references I can find is dated March 6, I guess some press gets advanced releases?
Elizabeth Lopatto "Las Vegas bets on Elon Musk’s Boring Company for tunnel project" The Verge, 6 March 2019
Also very pertinent quote from the above article from The Verge, March 6, 2019:
Quote from: The Verge, 6 March 2019
“I think the system is an attraction in and of itself,” Hill says. The LVCVA, which Hill heads, is a government agency that’s tasked with attracting visitors to Las Vegas.

The latest press release from the LVCVA also keeps the $52.5M "system cost" and maintains a maximum expected capacity of 4400 people per hour figure (despite some investigative journalism in 2020 speculating this would not be the case due to fire regs).
Erica Johnson "First Look Inside Elon Musk's Underground Transportation System Beneath the Las Vegas Convention Center" LVCVA, 9 April 2021
Quote from: LVCVA, 9 April 2021
Vehicles have capacity to go 150 mph but will travel at 35-40 mph due to the short distance of the tunnels.

In terms of finding out out much it actually has cost the LVCVA so far, the best I've found is the LVCVA books which report $33.4M
See line 203 https://assets.simpleviewcms.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/lasvegas/FY_2021_Budget_Schedules_for_Contracts_0cc0ace4-f11a-4bdf-b53a-2a3c8cf89269.pdf
I didn't see any mention of TBC in any of the earlier budget schedules: https://www.lvcva.com/funding-finance/budget-schedules-forms-31-32/
I'm guessing they aren't expecting or have otherwise agreed to partial payment until the full capacity is achieved?

The OP video presents the cost estimate figures like it's some sort of budget blowout which is the opposite of the truth, the cost estimates have stayed the same from the beginning, if anything the costs have gone down.

The intention still seems to be to eventually change the system to using pods which can be capable of carrying 16 passengers at a time but when that will happen? Who knows? That's one part I'm sceptical of. I'm guessing documents have been tendered showing how they intend to make a 16 person pod fit though those tunnels safely and it looked feasible enough to be approved. At least the tunnels are there and "paid for"
Quote from: Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021
Tesla vehicles capable of carrying up to 16 passengers are expected to be used in the system, but it hasn’t been disclosed when those vehicles would be delivered.
Richard N. Velotta  "Get a close look at shuttle system 40 feet beneath the convention center" Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021

I've seen the OP video as well as a really dodgy one from Engadget that somehow reduced the number of vehicles from 62 to 16 for their calculation both of which use a passenger number of 3 in their calculations. IF 16 passenger vehicles are delivered then by most estimates it looks like the 4400 is very achievable.

For claims that an above ground or alternative monorail solution would be some how more cost effective, the competing bid at the time of tendering was for an above ground system that was estimated to cost $215M!  :wtf:
Quote from: Las Vegas Sun, 14 May 2019
According to Doppelmayr’s original proposal, which was obtained by the Sun, the firm estimated that it would cost just over $215 million to build its above-ground transit system on the convention center’s footprint.
Bryan Horwath "With tourism board near vote on tunnel transport system, Goodman raises objections" VEGAS INC, 14 May 2019
Then there's the disruptions the above ground construction would have caused of which the loop construction apparently caused none.

Also for the larger Vegas Loop (different proposed project expanding beyond the LVCC) consider the Las Vegas Monorail which cost $650M in 2001 not accounting for inflation.
KEN RITTER "Work starts on $650 million Las Vegas Strip monorail" Napa Valley Register, 18 August 2001
That was also privately funded and went bankrupt last year and was being taken over by the LVCVA.
Erica Johnson "Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Acquires Assets of the Las Vegas Monorail Company" LVCVA, 10 December 2020
$162.5M per mile, adjusting for inflation is $234.6M per mile in 2019, probably significantly more by 2022 due to US stimulus measures.
Compared to the LVCC loop which is 0.8 miles for $52.5M as a government contract (not private as the Vegas Loop will be), that's $65.6M per mile.

The Las Vegas Monorail also only has a capacity of 3400 people per hour compared to the planned but yet to be delivered 4400 people per hour.
Mick Akers "What it may cost to ride Vegas Loop to local hot spots" Las Vegas Review-Journal, 14 April 2021
Even without meeting the planned 4400 people per hour, the cost per mile*capacity of the system offered by TBC looks much better.
Comparing timelines the Las Vegas Monorail extension took from issuing of bonds in mid 2000 till mid 2004 for the official opening for 3.9 miles i.e. 0.98 miles per year. LVCC took approval mid 2019 till 2021 for press opening so ~1.5 years for 0.8 miles, significantly slower. However, excavation was finished in Q2 2020 and urgency of completion is obviously much lower due to COVID. Compared to the off-the-shelf Godot machine used for the LVCC loop , their claim for the performance target for the latest Prufrock machine is 6 times faster than Godot+ which was in turn 50% faster than Godot. I'd expect timeline to be at least comparable if not faster with TBC compared to a traditional monorail project.
 
It hurts my head to see people I otherwise respect as intelligent and thoughtful to get swayed by BS sensationalism |O It's made to piss you off and disinform you. "Debunking"? This is a worthless misleading hit piece meant to incite outrages for clicks not to inform you of some hidden truth.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2021, 07:53:29 pm by sandalcandal »
Disclosure: Involved in electric vehicle and energy storage system technologies
 
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Offline tszaboo

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2021, 09:57:10 pm »
Maybe he can add rails, so it is safer than software. And the rails can carry electricity, so there is no need for batteries. Maybe he makes the cars larger, so more people can get into it.
Something, like on this image, from 1894:
Former username: NANDBlog
 
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Offline msuffidy

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #22 on: April 27, 2021, 12:06:21 am »
That loop sounds ridiculous, but like with most things SpaceX, it 'looks' new. Elon Musk is supposed to host the next Saturday Night Live on May 8. Elon Musk apparently had a child with Grimes, which I don't really know too much about, but I did at least like her 'Realiti' song...
« Last Edit: April 27, 2021, 12:14:53 am by msuffidy »
 

Offline wraper

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #23 on: May 31, 2021, 05:54:01 am »
https://twitter.com/SHillforVegas/status/1398497136623247361
Quote
Congratulations
@boringcompany
 -
@LVCVA
 Loop capacity testing exceeded 4400 passengers per hour on Tuesday, confirmed today after reviewing results. #OnlyVegas
 
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Offline wizard69

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Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
« Reply #24 on: June 01, 2021, 02:13:30 am »
More hassle to ride that thing than just walk the three blocks to the convention center.  Talk about a solution looking for a problem...

Having tried walking the strip in the middle of summer, I would most certainly take this route if it works well.
 


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