General > General Technical Chat
Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
sandalcandal:
I ended up going down the rabbit hole a bit again on this one.
Trying to find what the actual cost was, as per the video TBC (The Boring Company) has cost listed as $47M, some more reputable sources tend to have estimated cost to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) at $52.5M
Richard N. Velotta "Get a close look at shuttle system 40 feet beneath the convention center" Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021
Digging further in, it seems the $52.5M figure was first obtained from early estimates when the project was initially being negotiated back in early 2019. Earliest mention of this figure I could find was in the Vegas Inc - Las Vegas Sun, 14 May 2019, with the figure coming from the LVCVA CEO Steve Hill
Bryan Horwath "With tourism board near vote on tunnel transport system, Goodman raises objections" VEGAS INC, 14 May 2019
$55M seems to be an upper estimate for a $33M to $55M range from earlier in March 2019. Official press release from LVCVA here:
Jackie Dennis "LVCVA Board of Directors Votes to Move Forward with Elon Musk's The Boring Company" LVCVA, 12 March 2019
Note: The press release is dated March 12 but the earliest references I can find is dated March 6, I guess some press gets advanced releases?
Elizabeth Lopatto "Las Vegas bets on Elon Musk’s Boring Company for tunnel project" The Verge, 6 March 2019
Also very pertinent quote from the above article from The Verge, March 6, 2019:
--- Quote from: The Verge, 6 March 2019 ---“I think the system is an attraction in and of itself,” Hill says. The LVCVA, which Hill heads, is a government agency that’s tasked with attracting visitors to Las Vegas.
--- End quote ---
The latest press release from the LVCVA also keeps the $52.5M "system cost" and maintains a maximum expected capacity of 4400 people per hour figure (despite some investigative journalism in 2020 speculating this would not be the case due to fire regs).
Erica Johnson "First Look Inside Elon Musk's Underground Transportation System Beneath the Las Vegas Convention Center" LVCVA, 9 April 2021
--- Quote from: LVCVA, 9 April 2021 ---Vehicles have capacity to go 150 mph but will travel at 35-40 mph due to the short distance of the tunnels.
--- End quote ---
In terms of finding out out much it actually has cost the LVCVA so far, the best I've found is the LVCVA books which report $33.4M
See line 203 https://assets.simpleviewcms.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/lasvegas/FY_2021_Budget_Schedules_for_Contracts_0cc0ace4-f11a-4bdf-b53a-2a3c8cf89269.pdf
I didn't see any mention of TBC in any of the earlier budget schedules: https://www.lvcva.com/funding-finance/budget-schedules-forms-31-32/
I'm guessing they aren't expecting or have otherwise agreed to partial payment until the full capacity is achieved?
The OP video presents the cost estimate figures like it's some sort of budget blowout which is the opposite of the truth, the cost estimates have stayed the same from the beginning, if anything the costs have gone down.
The intention still seems to be to eventually change the system to using pods which can be capable of carrying 16 passengers at a time but when that will happen? Who knows? That's one part I'm sceptical of. I'm guessing documents have been tendered showing how they intend to make a 16 person pod fit though those tunnels safely and it looked feasible enough to be approved. At least the tunnels are there and "paid for"
--- Quote from: Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021 ---Tesla vehicles capable of carrying up to 16 passengers are expected to be used in the system, but it hasn’t been disclosed when those vehicles would be delivered.
--- End quote ---
Richard N. Velotta "Get a close look at shuttle system 40 feet beneath the convention center" Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021
I've seen the OP video as well as a really dodgy one from Engadget that somehow reduced the number of vehicles from 62 to 16 for their calculation both of which use a passenger number of 3 in their calculations. IF 16 passenger vehicles are delivered then by most estimates it looks like the 4400 is very achievable.
For claims that an above ground or alternative monorail solution would be some how more cost effective, the competing bid at the time of tendering was for an above ground system that was estimated to cost $215M! :wtf:
--- Quote from: Las Vegas Sun, 14 May 2019 ---According to Doppelmayr’s original proposal, which was obtained by the Sun, the firm estimated that it would cost just over $215 million to build its above-ground transit system on the convention center’s footprint.
--- End quote ---
Bryan Horwath "With tourism board near vote on tunnel transport system, Goodman raises objections" VEGAS INC, 14 May 2019
Then there's the disruptions the above ground construction would have caused of which the loop construction apparently caused none.
Also for the larger Vegas Loop (different proposed project expanding beyond the LVCC) consider the Las Vegas Monorail which cost $650M in 2001 not accounting for inflation.
KEN RITTER "Work starts on $650 million Las Vegas Strip monorail" Napa Valley Register, 18 August 2001
That was also privately funded and went bankrupt last year and was being taken over by the LVCVA.
Erica Johnson "Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Acquires Assets of the Las Vegas Monorail Company" LVCVA, 10 December 2020
$162.5M per mile, adjusting for inflation is $234.6M per mile in 2019, probably significantly more by 2022 due to US stimulus measures.
Compared to the LVCC loop which is 0.8 miles for $52.5M as a government contract (not private as the Vegas Loop will be), that's $65.6M per mile.
The Las Vegas Monorail also only has a capacity of 3400 people per hour compared to the planned but yet to be delivered 4400 people per hour.
Mick Akers "What it may cost to ride Vegas Loop to local hot spots" Las Vegas Review-Journal, 14 April 2021
Even without meeting the planned 4400 people per hour, the cost per mile*capacity of the system offered by TBC looks much better.
Comparing timelines the Las Vegas Monorail extension took from issuing of bonds in mid 2000 till mid 2004 for the official opening for 3.9 miles i.e. 0.98 miles per year. LVCC took approval mid 2019 till 2021 for press opening so ~1.5 years for 0.8 miles, significantly slower. However, excavation was finished in Q2 2020 and urgency of completion is obviously much lower due to COVID. Compared to the off-the-shelf Godot machine used for the LVCC loop , their claim for the performance target for the latest Prufrock machine is 6 times faster than Godot+ which was in turn 50% faster than Godot. I'd expect timeline to be at least comparable if not faster with TBC compared to a traditional monorail project.
It hurts my head to see people I otherwise respect as intelligent and thoughtful to get swayed by BS sensationalism |O It's made to piss you off and disinform you. "Debunking"? This is a worthless misleading hit piece meant to incite outrages for clicks not to inform you of some hidden truth.
tszaboo:
Maybe he can add rails, so it is safer than software. And the rails can carry electricity, so there is no need for batteries. Maybe he makes the cars larger, so more people can get into it.
Something, like on this image, from 1894:
msuffidy:
That loop sounds ridiculous, but like with most things SpaceX, it 'looks' new. Elon Musk is supposed to host the next Saturday Night Live on May 8. Elon Musk apparently had a child with Grimes, which I don't really know too much about, but I did at least like her 'Realiti' song...
wraper:
https://twitter.com/SHillforVegas/status/1398497136623247361
--- Quote ---Congratulations
@boringcompany
-
@LVCVA
Loop capacity testing exceeded 4400 passengers per hour on Tuesday, confirmed today after reviewing results. #OnlyVegas
--- End quote ---
wizard69:
--- Quote from: bson on April 22, 2021, 07:58:24 pm ---More hassle to ride that thing than just walk the three blocks to the convention center. Talk about a solution looking for a problem...
--- End quote ---
Having tried walking the strip in the middle of summer, I would most certainly take this route if it works well.
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