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General => General Technical Chat => Topic started by: BrianHG on April 22, 2021, 05:36:51 pm

Title: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: BrianHG on April 22, 2021, 05:36:51 pm
 :palm: Come on... Seriously...  Talk about a dangerous waste of money...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RPMt_FS-s8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RPMt_FS-s8)

Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: BrianHG on April 22, 2021, 05:43:51 pm
Take a look at that full disco-christmas lighting effect.  I would bet that those with mild motion sickness in those tunnels will either vomit or have seizures in those tunnels, even at 29mph.

That embarrassing junk of a project needs to have those dangerous tunnels filled in with concrete, or, repurposed as a sewer system.

 
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: Alex Eisenhut on April 22, 2021, 05:58:38 pm
I thought this was a solved problem. Now to find a Jenny Agutter lookalike.

(https://static.highsnobiety.com/thumbor/wsVYT9m-OecRlUsQ-E1e4d4jJjY=/1600x1067/static.highsnobiety.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/17132702/yeezy-logans-run-main01.jpg)
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: BrianHG on April 22, 2021, 06:14:40 pm
I bet that Logan's Run movie prop could go faster than 29mph...
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: Alex Eisenhut on April 22, 2021, 06:29:37 pm
Like Star Trek doors, the prop probably relied on off-camera operators to push them along... probably like a dolly.

I think the travel tube from Space:1999 is closer to what the Hyperloop shoulda been.

Maybe someone can email this to Elon...

https://catacombs.space1999.net/cybermuseum/MATN/matn1014.html
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: bson on April 22, 2021, 07:58:24 pm
More hassle to ride that thing than just walk the three blocks to the convention center.  Talk about a solution looking for a problem...
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: Domagoj T on April 22, 2021, 08:11:01 pm
Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?
No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on April 23, 2021, 02:56:47 am
Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?
No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).
You certainly did your research to claim that... Oh wait, you did not. https://www.boringcompany.com/loop (https://www.boringcompany.com/loop)
Quote
Loop has no internal touch hazards (e.g. a 600 volt third rail), enabling safe evacuation, minimizing potential fire sources, and eliminating any dangerous effects of (unlikely) water intrusion (Teslas can safely handle some rain). In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate.
Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system.  The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments.
Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi.
Loop tunnels are fully illuminated - and if an incident does occur, Loop has 100% camera coverage (no blind spots!)
Quote
in fact the cars block the only way out.
In fact nothing prevents you from leaving on your own foot  :palm:.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: Ed.Kloonk on April 23, 2021, 04:16:47 am
I thought this was a solved problem. Now to find a Jenny Agutter lookalike.

(https://static.highsnobiety.com/thumbor/wsVYT9m-OecRlUsQ-E1e4d4jJjY=/1600x1067/static.highsnobiety.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/17132702/yeezy-logans-run-main01.jpg)

 :)

I watched American Werewolf in London yesterday.

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on April 23, 2021, 04:34:51 am
I would rather call him an obsessed sceptic, there is little common sense IMHO.

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/elon-musks-vegas-loop-debunking/?action=dlattach;attach=1213937;image)
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: Alex Eisenhut on April 23, 2021, 04:50:12 am

I watched American Werewolf in London yesterday.


She was also in two Avengers movies.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: 2N3055 on April 23, 2021, 10:52:54 am
Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?
No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).
You certainly did your research to claim that... Oh wait, you did not. https://www.boringcompany.com/loop (https://www.boringcompany.com/loop)
Quote
Loop has no internal touch hazards (e.g. a 600 volt third rail), enabling safe evacuation, minimizing potential fire sources, and eliminating any dangerous effects of (unlikely) water intrusion (Teslas can safely handle some rain). In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate.
Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system.  The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments.
Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi.
Loop tunnels are fully illuminated - and if an incident does occur, Loop has 100% camera coverage (no blind spots!)
Quote
in fact the cars block the only way out.
In fact nothing prevents you from leaving on your own foot  :palm:.

You never saw a burning car, especially electric Tesla, that fire department procedure is to evacuate everybody at safe distance and let it burn until it stops. Ventilation will act to make thing burn more nicely, bringing fresh oxygen.

https://firesciencereviews.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40038-015-0006-6 (https://firesciencereviews.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40038-015-0006-6)

Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him. If they fail  it's their fault, if they actually make it work, it is his genius and vision. He's full of crap... But in today's faker society he's the hero of all the fakers...
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on April 23, 2021, 11:32:48 am
You never saw a burning car, especially electric Tesla,
Tesla model 3 is basically the safest car you can get in regards of caching fire. Also if Tesla catches fire, it propagates much slower than in a regular car.
Quote
that fire department procedure is to evacuate everybody at safe distance and let it burn until it stops.
BS, it's nothing like that. https://www.usfa.fema.gov/training/coffee_break/061819.html (https://www.usfa.fema.gov/training/coffee_break/061819.html)
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2016_Model_S_Emergency_Response_Guide_en.pdf (https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2016_Model_S_Emergency_Response_Guide_en.pdf)
Quote
Ventilation will act to make thing burn more nicely, bringing fresh oxygen.
So you should let people die from breathing smoke.
Quote
Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him. If they fail  it's their fault, if they actually make it work, it is his genius and vision. He's full of crap...
uninformed BS, in the meantime you can watch a livestream where his company launches astronauts to ISS https://youtu.be/oqA0ndN-rDc (https://youtu.be/oqA0ndN-rDc)
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: 2N3055 on April 23, 2021, 11:54:05 am
You never saw a burning car, especially electric Tesla,
Tesla model 3 is basically the safest car you can get in regards of caching fire. Also if Tesla catches fire, it propagates much slower than in a regular car.
Quote
that fire department procedure is to evacuate everybody at safe distance and let it burn until it stops.
BS, it's nothing like that. https://www.usfa.fema.gov/training/coffee_break/061819.html (https://www.usfa.fema.gov/training/coffee_break/061819.html)
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/Model_3_Emergency_Response_Sheet_en.pdf (https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/Model_3_Emergency_Response_Sheet_en.pdf)
Quote
Ventilation will act to make thing burn more nicely, bringing fresh oxygen.
So you should let people die from breathing smoke.
Quote
Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him. If they fail  it's their fault, if they actually make it work, it is his genius and vision. He's full of crap...
uninformed BS, in the meantime you can watch a livestream where his company launches astronauts to ISS https://youtu.be/oqA0ndN-rDc (https://youtu.be/oqA0ndN-rDc)

Yeah, we know you're the biggest Musk's fan of the hemisphere...
I said gasoline and mentioned that electric is even worse if it gets on fire... Stop misdirecting..

Read that paper I linked... And despite fanboyism, fire depts will work as USFD mandates, not Tesla... And read what amounts of water are needed.
Vehicle fire requires fire dept personnel and equipment. How will you get people and equipment in and out if it is blocked.

Yes, his company. The work of hundreds of engineers that stood on shoulders of giants and used combined experience of 50 years of space industry research. It is their accomplishment, not his. Like I said.
So far they are doing good. We'll see in 20 years, how good they really were. Numbers will tell..

Real world research on EV fires in tunel.

https://hagerbach.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/news/Road_tunnel_safety_Hazards_of_electric_vehicle_fires_Mellert_2018.pdf (https://hagerbach.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/news/Road_tunnel_safety_Hazards_of_electric_vehicle_fires_Mellert_2018.pdf)

They clearly say energy release is similar to gasoline vehicle, but amount of water is much more, and there are other haphazards. But that is for a classic tunnel that has much larger volume and escape routes.. Also biggest problem is cleanup, with no space for specialized equipment and crew.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on April 23, 2021, 12:03:03 pm
Read that paper I linked... And despite fanboyism,
Providing a link to a very long document without bringing any points it contains is the best argument ever. And I bet you barely read it yourself.
Quote
fire depts will work as USFD mandates, not Tesla... And read what amounts of water are needed.
I literally provided you a link to US fire administration  :palm:
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: BrianHG on April 23, 2021, 12:10:53 pm
Wouldn't this fall into some category of public transportation system, in which case it would, I assume, be subject to various rule, including fire code?
No fire suppression, or even detection, no evacuation route, in fact the cars block the only way out. This thing is a death trap and I can't fathom how it got an operation permit (or whatever it's called).
You certainly did your research to claim that... Oh wait, you did not. https://www.boringcompany.com/loop (https://www.boringcompany.com/loop)
Quote
Loop has no internal touch hazards (e.g. a 600 volt third rail), enabling safe evacuation, minimizing potential fire sources, and eliminating any dangerous effects of (unlikely) water intrusion (Teslas can safely handle some rain). In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate.
Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system.  The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments.
Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi.
Loop tunnels are fully illuminated - and if an incident does occur, Loop has 100% camera coverage (no blind spots!)
Quote
in fact the cars block the only way out.
In fact nothing prevents you from leaving on your own foot  :palm:.

I will not trust this system until I see an example evacuation during a fire, seeing actual two 400 pound Americans successfully opening the Tesla car door, one one each side of the car, get out, and evacuate the tunnel past other Tesla cars in the tunnel in time while the ventilation system leaves them enough clean breathable air at standing height with that tiny diameter tunnel's height.  If they are so confident of the system, show me an example video of an actual test fire care of this tiny tunnel, or show example past cases of such a setup.  A veritably accurate computer simulation would be acceptable too.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: fourfathom on April 26, 2021, 12:54:39 am
Yes, his company. The work of hundreds of engineers that stood on shoulders of giants and used combined experience of 50 years of space industry research. It is their accomplishment, not his.

Did Musk claim that he personally designed the SpaceX rockets?  If not, this is a rather silly complaint.  He hired smart people to use existing technology and expand on it.  Just like most companies.  And it wouldn't have happened without him.  I call that an huge accomplishment and give him tons of credit for it.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on April 26, 2021, 04:28:42 am
Yes, his company. The work of hundreds of engineers that stood on shoulders of giants and used combined experience of 50 years of space industry research. It is their accomplishment, not his.

Did Musk claim that he personally designed the SpaceX rockets?  If not, this is a rather silly complaint.  He hired smart people to use existing technology and expand on it.  Just like most companies.  And it wouldn't have happened without him.  I call that an huge accomplishment and give him tons of credit for it.
I guess by being purist he uses electronic components made by himself from wood. Otherwise it would be "standing on shoulders of giants and using combined experience of 50 years of industry research."
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: bson on April 26, 2021, 05:18:55 am
Musk is an opportunistic con artist. He promises anything that people are willing to hear, and if there is an interest, he tries to find someone to make it for him.
But in this case the Las Vegas Convention Center contracted the Boring Company to build this tunnel for them.  I'm sure they got exactly what they wanted - and more importantly paid for.  It's just a novelty project to create interest and draw conventions.  Not the kind of con you're thinking of.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: coppercone2 on April 26, 2021, 05:26:50 am
American werewolf in london was a suprizing movie. I watched it towards the end of all the classic movies and it made me quite interested in the british metro system and for some reason 80's British culture or the depiction of it. Not sure why. Nothing else made me quite wonder what the hell I would be doing if I ended up in england. Nothing to do with the werewolf even, its just a weird set. maybe the 80's england was just really weird
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: sandalcandal on April 26, 2021, 04:26:49 pm
I ended up going down the rabbit hole a bit again on this one.

Trying to find what the actual cost was, as per the video TBC (The Boring Company) has cost listed as $47M (https://www.boringcompany.com/lvcc), some more reputable sources tend to have estimated cost to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) at $52.5M
Richard N. Velotta  "Get a close look at shuttle system 40 feet beneath the convention center" Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021  (https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/tourism/get-a-close-look-at-shuttle-system-40-feet-beneath-the-convention-center-2325137/)

Digging further in, it seems the $52.5M figure was first obtained from early estimates when the project was initially being negotiated back in early 2019. Earliest mention of this figure I could find was in the Vegas Inc - Las Vegas Sun, 14 May 2019, with the figure coming from the LVCVA CEO Steve Hill
Bryan Horwath "With tourism board near vote on tunnel transport system, Goodman raises objections" VEGAS INC, 14 May 2019 (https://vegasinc.lasvegassun.com/business/tourism/2019/may/14/tourism-board-vote-tunnel-transport-goodman-object/)

$55M seems to be an upper estimate for a $33M to $55M range from earlier in March 2019. Official press release from LVCVA here:
Jackie Dennis "LVCVA Board of Directors Votes to Move Forward with Elon Musk's The Boring Company" LVCVA, 12 March 2019 (https://press.lvcva.com/News-Releases/lvcva-and-elon-musk-s-the-boring-company-collaborating-for-future-of-transportation-in-las-vegas/s/ef4db4ea-f604-4028-be6d-feb1017376df)
Note: The press release is dated March 12 but the earliest references I can find is dated March 6, I guess some press gets advanced releases?
Elizabeth Lopatto "Las Vegas bets on Elon Musk’s Boring Company for tunnel project" The Verge, 6 March 2019 (https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/6/18252302/boring-company-las-vegas-dig-plans-2021)
Also very pertinent quote from the above article from The Verge, March 6, 2019:
Quote from: The Verge, 6 March 2019
“I think the system is an attraction in and of itself,” Hill says. The LVCVA, which Hill heads, is a government agency that’s tasked with attracting visitors to Las Vegas.

The latest press release from the LVCVA also keeps the $52.5M "system cost" and maintains a maximum expected capacity of 4400 people per hour figure (despite some investigative journalism in 2020 speculating this would not be the case due to fire regs) (https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/16/elon-musks-las-vegas-loop-might-only-carry-a-fraction-of-the-passengers-it-promised/).
Erica Johnson "First Look Inside Elon Musk's Underground Transportation System Beneath the Las Vegas Convention Center" LVCVA, 9 April 2021 (https://press.lvcva.com/news-releases/all/first-look-inside-elon-musk-s-underground-transportation-system-beneath-the-las-vegas-convention-cen/s/ea9122f4-c70c-4448-a140-79c3253f85ef)
Quote from: LVCVA, 9 April 2021
Vehicles have capacity to go 150 mph but will travel at 35-40 mph due to the short distance of the tunnels.

In terms of finding out out much it actually has cost the LVCVA so far, the best I've found is the LVCVA books which report $33.4M
See line 203 https://assets.simpleviewcms.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/lasvegas/FY_2021_Budget_Schedules_for_Contracts_0cc0ace4-f11a-4bdf-b53a-2a3c8cf89269.pdf (https://assets.simpleviewcms.com/simpleview/image/upload/v1/clients/lasvegas/FY_2021_Budget_Schedules_for_Contracts_0cc0ace4-f11a-4bdf-b53a-2a3c8cf89269.pdf)
I didn't see any mention of TBC in any of the earlier budget schedules: https://www.lvcva.com/funding-finance/budget-schedules-forms-31-32/ (https://www.lvcva.com/funding-finance/budget-schedules-forms-31-32/)
I'm guessing they aren't expecting or have otherwise agreed to partial payment until the full capacity is achieved?

The OP video presents the cost estimate figures like it's some sort of budget blowout which is the opposite of the truth, the cost estimates have stayed the same from the beginning, if anything the costs have gone down.

The intention still seems to be to eventually change the system to using pods which can be capable of carrying 16 passengers at a time but when that will happen? Who knows? That's one part I'm sceptical of. I'm guessing documents have been tendered showing how they intend to make a 16 person pod fit though those tunnels safely and it looked feasible enough to be approved. At least the tunnels are there and "paid for"
Quote from: Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021
Tesla vehicles capable of carrying up to 16 passengers are expected to be used in the system, but it hasn’t been disclosed when those vehicles would be delivered.
Richard N. Velotta  "Get a close look at shuttle system 40 feet beneath the convention center" Las Vegas Review Journal, 8 April 2021  (https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/tourism/get-a-close-look-at-shuttle-system-40-feet-beneath-the-convention-center-2325137/)

I've seen the OP video as well as a really dodgy one from Engadget (https://youtu.be/A-SC2vtulvQ) that somehow reduced the number of vehicles from 62 to 16 for their calculation both of which use a passenger number of 3 in their calculations. IF 16 passenger vehicles are delivered then by most estimates it looks like the 4400 is very achievable.

For claims that an above ground or alternative monorail solution would be some how more cost effective, the competing bid at the time of tendering was for an above ground system that was estimated to cost $215M!  :wtf:
Quote from: Las Vegas Sun, 14 May 2019
According to Doppelmayr’s original proposal, which was obtained by the Sun, the firm estimated that it would cost just over $215 million to build its above-ground transit system on the convention center’s footprint.
Bryan Horwath "With tourism board near vote on tunnel transport system, Goodman raises objections" VEGAS INC, 14 May 2019 (https://vegasinc.lasvegassun.com/business/tourism/2019/may/14/tourism-board-vote-tunnel-transport-goodman-object/)
Then there's the disruptions the above ground construction would have caused of which the loop construction apparently caused none.  (https://www.boringcompany.com/lvcc)

Also for the larger Vegas Loop (different proposed project expanding beyond the LVCC) consider the Las Vegas Monorail which cost $650M in 2001 not accounting for inflation.
KEN RITTER "Work starts on $650 million Las Vegas Strip monorail" Napa Valley Register, 18 August 2001 (https://napavalleyregister.com/news/work-starts-on-650-million-las-vegas-strip-monorail/article_56541a76-7f78-53bb-9eab-123a0f159c05.html)
That was also privately funded and went bankrupt last year and was being taken over by the LVCVA.
Erica Johnson "Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Acquires Assets of the Las Vegas Monorail Company" LVCVA, 10 December 2020 (https://press.lvcva.com/News-Releases/las-vegas-convention-and-visitors-authority-acquires-assets-of-the-las-vegas-monorail-company/s/c0bffe48-4665-4523-9525-8b0d20df2621)
$162.5M per mile, adjusting for inflation (https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2001?endYear=2019&amount=162.50) is $234.6M per mile in 2019, probably significantly more by 2022 due to US stimulus measures.
Compared to the LVCC loop which is 0.8 miles for $52.5M as a government contract (not private as the Vegas Loop will be), that's $65.6M per mile.

The Las Vegas Monorail also only has a capacity of 3400 people per hour compared to the planned but yet to be delivered 4400 people per hour.
Mick Akers "What it may cost to ride Vegas Loop to local hot spots" Las Vegas Review-Journal, 14 April 2021 (https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/tourism/what-it-may-cost-to-ride-vegas-loop-to-local-hot-spots-2329364/)
Even without meeting the planned 4400 people per hour, the cost per mile*capacity of the system offered by TBC looks much better.
Comparing timelines the Las Vegas Monorail extension took from issuing of bonds in mid 2000 (https://lasvegassun.com/news/2000/jul/17/650-million-for-monorail-okd/) till mid 2004 for the official opening (https://www.lvmonorail.com/history/) for 3.9 miles i.e. 0.98 miles per year. LVCC took approval mid 2019 till 2021 for press opening so ~1.5 years for 0.8 miles, significantly slower. However, excavation was finished in Q2 2020 (https://press.lvcva.com/News-Releases/boring-machine-breaks-through-second-tunnel--marking-completion-of-tunnel-excavation-at-the--las-veg/s/34b105d6-f1c7-4ceb-8e2b-eeb294b03352) and urgency of completion is obviously much lower due to COVID. Compared to the off-the-shelf Godot machine used for the LVCC loop  (https://www.boringcompany.com/lvcc), their claim for the performance target for the latest Prufrock machine is 6 times faster than Godot+ (https://www.boringcompany.com/prufrock) which was in turn 50% faster than Godot (https://web.archive.org/web/20200828052159/https://www.boringcompany.com/faq). I'd expect timeline to be at least comparable if not faster with TBC compared to a traditional monorail project.
 
It hurts my head to see people I otherwise respect as intelligent and thoughtful to get swayed by BS sensationalism |O It's made to piss you off and disinform you. "Debunking"? This is a worthless misleading hit piece meant to incite outrages for clicks not to inform you of some hidden truth.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: tszaboo on April 26, 2021, 09:57:10 pm
Maybe he can add rails, so it is safer than software. And the rails can carry electricity, so there is no need for batteries. Maybe he makes the cars larger, so more people can get into it.
Something, like on this image, from 1894:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/Foldalatti_Andrassy.png)
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: msuffidy on April 27, 2021, 12:06:21 am
That loop sounds ridiculous, but like with most things SpaceX, it 'looks' new. Elon Musk is supposed to host the next Saturday Night Live on May 8. Elon Musk apparently had a child with Grimes, which I don't really know too much about, but I did at least like her 'Realiti' song...
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on May 31, 2021, 05:54:01 am
https://twitter.com/SHillforVegas/status/1398497136623247361
Quote
Congratulations
@boringcompany
 -
@LVCVA
 Loop capacity testing exceeded 4400 passengers per hour on Tuesday, confirmed today after reviewing results. #OnlyVegas
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wizard69 on June 01, 2021, 02:13:30 am
More hassle to ride that thing than just walk the three blocks to the convention center.  Talk about a solution looking for a problem...

Having tried walking the strip in the middle of summer, I would most certainly take this route if it works well.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wizard69 on June 01, 2021, 02:45:14 am
I think the long term goal here is small van like vehicles.  That would increase capacity some.    In any event many people don't understand Vegas from the comments seen here:

https://twitter.com/SHillforVegas/status/1398497136623247361
Quote
Congratulations
@boringcompany
 -
@LVCVA
 Loop capacity testing exceeded 4400 passengers per hour on Tuesday, confirmed today after reviewing results. #OnlyVegas
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 12, 2021, 03:22:07 am
Quote
Congratulations
@boringcompany
 -
@LVCVA
 Loop capacity testing exceeded 4400 passengers per hour on Tuesday, confirmed today after reviewing results. #OnlyVegas

Of course what they fail to mention is that number is total passenger journies. 
Elon Measures from East to Central, Central to West, West to Central, Central to East as '4 journeys'.

In reality, that's only 1100 pphpd (passengers per hour per direction), which is what typical metro subways [25k - 50k pphpd] are measured in.

Now if only there were a way to scale up the number of passengers to 25,000 pphpd and make it driverless


Oh wait, we did that back in 1986


Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 12, 2021, 03:42:34 am
Also the fanboys that are saying "But it will eventually do 120mph"

Science & Math:

120mph = 53m/s = let's call that 50m/s for simplicity
0 to 50m/s in let's say 10 seconds (which is really fast), or an acceleration of 5m/s² (½G) - very uncomfortable as a passenger, and impossible if you're sitting sideways
Distance traveled during 0 to 50m/s =   ½at²   =   0.5 * 5 * 10 * 10 = 250m

The tunnel is about 650m between stations, so that's
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 12, 2021, 04:12:23 am
I think the long term goal here is small van like vehicles.  That would increase capacity some.    In any event many people don't understand Vegas from the comments seen here:
  • Everything on the strip is an attraction.   Corporations go out of their way to try new things there, that can be a new building facade or a new approach to transportation.   The idea of course is to present a bit of the future and of course do  the all important testing.
  • Musk's underground solution is as much an attraction as anything else on the strip.   However if developed in the right way it could actually be a very useful solution for a variety of city needs across the world.
  • The Boaring Companies bid was extremely competitive.   Beyond being a competitive bid, Vegas is an ideal place to bring potential customers to demo what is on offer.   In a year or two I would expect purpose built vehicles to increase appeal to areas with real transportation problems.
  • Vegas can be extremely hot in the summer, so comments about walking a few blocks can be seen as pretty silly.   Been there and tried to do that
  • Being underground means nothing ugly to influence the view tourists see.
  • The comments about fires are completely off, especially if one is proposing that gasoline is a better solution.   Beyond all of that most of the reported fires of Tesla's are due to stupid drivers crashing at high speed.
  • Attacks on Musk and his accomplishments, do little to diminish the value of this project.  It is as much an experiment in new transportation ideas as it is a fleshed out solution.  Vegas frankly will be out far less money that with other ideas presented if it fails and for that 35 million they get another Vegas attraction.

https://twitter.com/SHillforVegas/status/1398497136623247361
Quote
Congratulations
@boringcompany
 -
@LVCVA
 Loop capacity testing exceeded 4400 passengers per hour on Tuesday, confirmed today after reviewing results. #OnlyVegas

1. It's not really on the strip, nor is it open to the public.  It connects the East and [new] West parts of the convention centre.
2. It would do nothing to help traffic, compared to one more lane on LVB or I15
3. It was easy to dig a short tunnel, which opens to the world on each end (which removed most of the safety/fire requirements). Building a tunnel with more than one intermediate stop will suddenly run into much much bigger civil engineering challenges. 
4. The stations aren't air conditioned (E and W are open to the outside, centre is just underground).
5. No part of the convention centre is "pretty".
6. The fire safety aspects of the tunnel are stupid, and I'm sure every tunnel engineer from a country with real metros and real rail tunnels are laughing (a lot).  Elon's solution is "Drivers are trained to back up"
7. It's an underground lane of traffic. Tunnel boring machines aren't new. People driving [even electric] vehicles isn't new.



Oh, and as I've mentioned in another post, that 4400 number is actually 4x the normal pphpd number used to measure regular transit systems.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on June 12, 2021, 06:45:19 am
Also the fanboys that are saying "But it will eventually do 120mph"

Science & Math:

120mph = 53m/s = let's call that 50m/s for simplicity
0 to 50m/s in let's say 10 seconds (which is really fast), or an acceleration of 5m/s² (½G) - very uncomfortable as a passenger, and impossible if you're sitting sideways
Distance traveled during 0 to 50m/s =   ½at²   =   0.5 * 5 * 10 * 10 = 250m

The tunnel is about 650m between stations, so that's
  • 10 seconds ½G accel (250m)
  • 3 seconds at top speed (150m)
  • 10 seconds ½G deceleration (250m)
For sceptics, 120 mph is a figure for longer tunnels  :palm:. At no point of time there was any claim that existing segment will operate at 120 mph. So all you math does is fighting a straw man.
Quote
Oh, and as I've mentioned in another post, that 4400 number is actually 4x the normal pphpd number used to measure regular transit systems.
Isn't the number 2 times too high?
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 12, 2021, 07:35:07 am
Also the fanboys that are saying "But it will eventually do 120mph"

Science & Math:

120mph = 53m/s = let's call that 50m/s for simplicity
0 to 50m/s in let's say 10 seconds (which is really fast), or an acceleration of 5m/s² (½G) - very uncomfortable as a passenger, and impossible if you're sitting sideways
Distance traveled during 0 to 50m/s =   ½at²   =   0.5 * 5 * 10 * 10 = 250m

The tunnel is about 650m between stations, so that's
  • 10 seconds ½G accel (250m)
  • 3 seconds at top speed (150m)
  • 10 seconds ½G deceleration (250m)
For sceptics, 120 mph is a figure for longer tunnels  :palm:. At no point of time there was any claim that existing segment will operate at 120 mph. So all you math does is fighting a straw man.

No, the fan boys are still saying 120mph; even Vegas press are touting 155mph still for 'the loop' at the LVCVA.


The LVCVA itself said:

"...The innovative transportation system will allow convention attendees to be whisked across the LVCC’s 200-acre campus in just over one minute -- free of charge -- in all-electric Tesla vehicles capable of holding between 3 and 16 people..."
https://press.lvcva.com/Events/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musk-s-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-des/s/a313340f-1f36-4dd7-a53b-76c399215586

"Just over a minute" to: start, accelerate, decelerate, slow to 15, accelerate, decelerate, stop, for 8/10ths of a mile (1.3km); and that's assuming not stopping in the middle.  If you watch people's videos of this actually with real traffic from this week, you can already see the central station is a bottleneck, and cars waiting in the tunnel to enter.



To give you another idea of how dumb it is, there are crosswalks, blocking the loop traffic to get into the south and west stations; yes the loop comes to a complete stop when someone wants to get into the area where you board and disembark his rolling advertising.



Quote
Quote
Oh, and as I've mentioned in another post, that 4400 number is actually 4x the normal pphpd number used to measure regular transit systems.
Isn't the number 2 times too high?

No, he's counting A-B and B-C simultaneously in each direction.
Firstly transit systems are not measured from each station, but the  line as a whole (so that's 2x)
Secondly, transit systems are measured per direction.  (that's another 2x).


If I tried an 'elon math' on one of our local transit system lines (Expo Line, 19 stations/18 segments, 500 person trains leaving every 90 seconds/40 tph, in both directions)
you'd get 720,000 people per hour   (500 * 18 * 40 * 2)

In reality, the number (in civil engineering pphpd) is 500*40, or 20,000 pphpd



Did I mention our local system is driverless and has been for 35 years?

Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on June 12, 2021, 07:43:13 am
No, he's counting A-B and B-C simultaneously in each direction.
Firstly transit systems are not measured from each station, but the  line as a whole (so that's 2x)
Secondly, transit systems are measured per direction.  (that's another 2x).
I don't think it's true. You take a ride to where you want, there are no intermediate stops. So it can be A to B, B to C or A to C.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 12, 2021, 07:56:55 am
No, he's counting A-B and B-C simultaneously in each direction.
Firstly transit systems are not measured from each station, but the  line as a whole (so that's 2x)
Secondly, transit systems are measured per direction.  (that's another 2x).
I don't think it's true. You take a ride to where you want, there are no intermediate stops. So it can be A to B, B to C or A to C.

A-C passes through B, it's not a triangle.

Let's show it another way.  Station B, in the middle, capacity 5 cars in any direction
car unload/load time = 45 seconds (rough guess)
car every 9 seconds, 400 cars/hour
3 people per car = 1200 persons/hour;
which is oddly close to my 1100 number.

Face it, you don't want to hear it, but in this case Elon has sold them snake oil.





Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: nctnico on June 12, 2021, 06:55:50 pm
I guess most people don't get that it is a demonstrator. Not something that is actually useful. However, having a public transport system which is able to transport people more directly from A to C without going through B can be a major improvement in time.  The reality is that underground transport systems can easely be outperformed using a simple bicycle (let alone an electric bicycle). The effective speed of underground public transport is really low. In that perspective Tesla's Vegas loop is an interesting idea but obviously it needs lots of improvement.

Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on June 13, 2021, 09:43:08 am
A-C passes through B, it's not a triangle.
Based on what info do you assume that 4400 people per hour figure does not include a significant number (like a half) of A to C and C to A rides? And all rides are from/to B.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: sandalcandal on June 13, 2021, 01:28:34 pm
No, the fan boys are still saying 120mph; even Vegas press are touting 155mph still for 'the loop' at the LVCVA.


The LVCVA itself said:

"...The innovative transportation system will allow convention attendees to be whisked across the LVCC’s 200-acre campus in just over one minute -- free of charge -- in all-electric Tesla vehicles capable of holding between 3 and 16 people..."
https://press.lvcva.com/Events/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musk-s-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-des/s/a313340f-1f36-4dd7-a53b-76c399215586 (https://press.lvcva.com/Events/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musk-s-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-des/s/a313340f-1f36-4dd7-a53b-76c399215586)

"Just over a minute" to: start, accelerate, decelerate, slow to 15, accelerate, decelerate, stop, for 8/10ths of a mile (1.3km); and that's assuming not stopping in the middle.  If you watch people's videos of this actually with real traffic from this week, you can already see the central station is a bottleneck, and cars waiting in the tunnel to enter.
Who now? Not anyone here. I don't know where you're seeing that so I can only guess you're just using a strawman.

As I posted earlier in the thread, from the same source (different newer article) as your quote:
Erica Johnson "First Look Inside Elon Musk's Underground Transportation System Beneath the Las Vegas Convention Center" LVCVA, 9 April 2021 (https://press.lvcva.com/news-releases/all/first-look-inside-elon-musk-s-underground-transportation-system-beneath-the-las-vegas-convention-cen/s/ea9122f4-c70c-4448-a140-79c3253f85ef)
Quote from: LVCVA, 9 April 2021
Vehicles have capacity to go 150 mph but will travel at 35-40 mph due to the short distance of the tunnels.
Edit2: Hell, if you even thought about the numbers you are posting you would see that "just over a minute" works out in line with the publicised speed.
Quote from: https://www.boringcompany.com/lvcc
The LVCC Loop system — a three-station transportation system consisting of 1.7 miles of tunnel — was built in approximately one year (using the now-legacy Godot Tunnel Boring Machine). LVCC Loop's cost was approximately $47M (firm fixed pricing) for the two tunnels and three stations (two surface and one subsurface). Tunneling occurred during large conventions (>100,000 attendees pre-COVID) with zero road closures and zero attendee disturbances.

LVCC Loop connects the LVCC New Exhibit Hall with the existing campus (North/Central/South Halls), and reduces a 45 minute cross-campus walk time to approximately 2 minutes.

Edit: Most of your points and calculations have also already been covered in the first page of this thread so please read those first. Also please provide a source for the fact "pphpd is being measured falsely" because it seems you have only convinced yourself using made up numbers.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: sandalcandal on June 13, 2021, 01:52:34 pm
The LVCVA itself said:

"...The innovative transportation system will allow convention attendees to be whisked across the LVCC’s 200-acre campus in just over one minute -- free of charge -- in all-electric Tesla vehicles capable of holding between 3 and 16 people..."
https://press.lvcva.com/Events/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musk-s-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-des/s/a313340f-1f36-4dd7-a53b-76c399215586

A-C passes through B, it's not a triangle.

Let's show it another way.  Station B, in the middle, capacity 5 cars in any direction
car unload/load time = 45 seconds (rough guess)
car every 9 seconds, 400 cars/hour
3 people per car = 1200 persons/hour;
which is oddly close to my 1100 number.

Face it, you don't want to hear it, but in this case Elon has sold them snake oil.
Are you really going to contradict your own information so hard to try prove a point?

Also if you read any of the other posts you'd know if The Boring Company does not meet contract requirements then LVCVA is barely paying anything. Particularly if you compare to similar project costs in the locality. Even for a "technology demonstrator" it has good value for money. LVCVA would be fools for not going with TBC.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 13, 2021, 11:09:41 pm
The LVCVA itself said:

"...The innovative transportation system will allow convention attendees to be whisked across the LVCC’s 200-acre campus in just over one minute -- free of charge -- in all-electric Tesla vehicles capable of holding between 3 and 16 people..."
https://press.lvcva.com/Events/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musk-s-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-des/s/a313340f-1f36-4dd7-a53b-76c399215586

A-C passes through B, it's not a triangle.

Let's show it another way.  Station B, in the middle, capacity 5 cars in any direction
car unload/load time = 45 seconds (rough guess)
car every 9 seconds, 400 cars/hour
3 people per car = 1200 persons/hour;
which is oddly close to my 1100 number.

Face it, you don't want to hear it, but in this case Elon has sold them snake oil.
Are you really going to contradict your own information so hard to try prove a point?

Also if you read any of the other posts you'd know if The Boring Company does not meet contract requirements then LVCVA is barely paying anything. Particularly if you compare to similar project costs in the locality. Even for a "technology demonstrator" it has good value for money. LVCVA would be fools for not going with TBC.

yep, you're quite right, the 16 people was pure undelivered BS from Elon.
The 3 number I used is what is actually happening.


But if you go back in the press releases we have
- just over a minute
- two minutes
In reality it's a tad over 3 minutes  (5:50 for a loop without stopping)  https://youtu.be/-RPMt_FS-s8?t=284


As for your last statement, this is where the LVCVA may be wily like a fox.  It's entirely possible they knew full well Elon couldnt deliver the pph, and chose this system for exactly that reason, realizing they could get most of what they wanted, for basically nothing.  if the Boring company walk away from this (which wouldn't surprise me if they do),  LVCVA can just put a moving walkway in there


Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2021, 07:24:48 am
As for your last statement, this is where the LVCVA may be wily like a fox.  It's entirely possible they knew full well Elon couldnt deliver the pph, and chose this system for exactly that reason, realizing they could get most of what they wanted, for basically nothing.  if the Boring company walk away from this (which wouldn't surprise me if they do),  LVCVA can just put a moving walkway in there
LMAO, it was already tested and exceeded the capacity required in the contract, so your statement is lame. Neither pphpd was in the contract, neither it's directly comparable with the tested figure.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: sandalcandal on June 14, 2021, 10:17:46 am
yep, you're quite right, the 16 people was pure undelivered BS from Elon.
The 3 number I used is what is actually happening.
Undelivered yet. If there's anything you can be reasonably sceptical of it's if or how the 16 person capacity can be delivered. If you compare to other suggestions and you just look at the available possibilities, even if it's not a Tesla minibus, any electric minibus solution could be easily implemented for this that can carry at least 16 people comfortably, particularly considering limited requirements of driving on a small track at limited speed not on a public roads. If you even use an in-between number instead of the absolute minimum, the "advertised" value is easily achieved. Again, just reiterating what I've previously said since you don't seem to be bothered reading what was previously written.

In reality it's a tad over 3 minutes  (5:50 for a loop without stopping)  https://youtu.be/-RPMt_FS-s8?t=284 (https://youtu.be/-RPMt_FS-s8?t=284)
But also including looping around and stopping in the middle. If you actually just look at the time to travel from one end to the other
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUoZCUqbCNg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUoZCUqbCNg)
1:45-4:15 that's 2 and a half minutes. Also if you look at this the actual original video instead of that bullshit artist's time warped video you'll see just how slow and leisurely it goes to manage that pace.

In so far as it being some sort of a misleading scam the difference of 1 single minute considering the likely variability of other factors in the wholistic system (e.g. boarding and unboarding) it's hardly a significant error even if it's "25%" If this were a 20 minute journey that much % error would be significant...but it's not. It's a 2 minute journey with +/-30 second error.

As for your last statement, this is where the LVCVA may be wily like a fox.  It's entirely possible they knew full well Elon couldnt deliver the pph, and chose this system for exactly that reason, realizing they could get most of what they wanted, for basically nothing.  if the Boring company walk away from this (which wouldn't surprise me if they do),  LVCVA can just put a moving walkway in there
Again if you want to think about how much of a "scam" it is then you need to consider it in relation to the other proposals that were being tabled for LVCVA's need. The alternative was an above ground system being quoted for x4.5 the cost! The original planned project was $215M for which Tesla has provided a "superior" alternative for only $47M. (https://vegasinc.lasvegassun.com/business/tourism/2019/may/14/tourism-board-vote-tunnel-transport-goodman-object/) Seriously, where is the scam  :-// If you're angry about public infrastructure projects being over priced then I'm with you but this is definitely not one of them.

I've said it many times before. I can't see the logic people are applying to come to the conclusion these "Elon Projects" are a scam. It seems more like people seeing a project with Elon Musk some how connected first then trying to find reasons it is a scam after and using dodgy shit videos from people like "Common Seppo" to try justify their opinions; even going so far as to use a "debunking" of some random, unofficial, fan video as a point against the technology. (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/elon-musk-is-a-delusional-moron/msg3570505/#msg3570505)

I'm not saying Elon Musk or the projects run by his companies are perfect and flawless, there are loads of fanatic irrational fanboys (outside this forum) but there's just so much intellectual dishonesty trying to discredit these projects in discussions on this forum I can't ignore it.

You still haven't provided "factual" evidence of how system capacity is being measured.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: tszaboo on June 14, 2021, 11:26:10 am
The reality is that underground transport systems can easely be outperformed using a simple bicycle (let alone an electric bicycle). The effective speed of underground public transport is really low.
So, I looked up the speed of subway that I was taking on the daily basis in Budapest. The effective speed (with stops) is 32 Km/h. The average cycling speed 12.4 KM/h in the Netherlands. I would ignore the fact, that its the question of time when you end up in a hospital for using the bike in that city.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: nctnico on June 14, 2021, 03:28:43 pm
The reality is that underground transport systems can easely be outperformed using a simple bicycle (let alone an electric bicycle). The effective speed of underground public transport is really low.
So, I looked up the speed of subway that I was taking on the daily basis in Budapest. The effective speed (with stops) is 32 Km/h. The average cycling speed 12.4 KM/h in the Netherlands.
What you are overlooking is that public transport always takes a detour and a bicycle goes from A to B directly. Travelling at 32km/h doesn't do you any good when you are going in the wrong direction.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 15, 2021, 03:45:42 am
Station Capacity Calculation - aka "Why the 4400 number cannot be pphpd"

First, what is pphpd?
passengers per hour per direction is the standard measure of transit systems, so when you see "XXXX Metro carries 25,000/hour" that's the number they're using
examples:
  Expo Line (Vancouver, Canada): 25,000 pphpd
  L1 New York: 36,000 pphpd
  Central Line (London UK): 32,550 (35 trains/hour * 930/train)


VEGAS LOOP

What we can assume:
 40 second load/unload (cars have seatbelts, every ride I've seen people buckle up)
 3 persons/vehicle

West and South stations:
 8 load/unload bays
 10 sec/minute lost to pedestrians crossing the loop (seriously - check out the attached image)
 ... 3000 operational seconds /hour

-> car leaves every 5 seconds (40 seconds / 8 bays)
-> 600 cars/hr  (3000 / 5)
carrying 3 people each
= 1800 people per hour (not anywhere near 4400)


Central station:
 5 load/unload bays

-> car leaves every 8 seconds
-> 450 cars/hour
carrying 3 people each
= 1350 people per hour (also not 4400)



--------------------------------
And I still stand by my "a tad over 3 minutes"


Boffin: "a tad over 3 minutes" (assumed some load/unload time)

Demo Video: 2m39s with no allowance for stopping  (1m38s - 4m27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUoZCUqbCNg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUoZCUqbCNg))
LVCVA (2019): "just over one minute" https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musks-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-destinations-first-underground-people-mover-300959530.html (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/las-vegas-convention-center-makes-history-as-elon-musks-the-boring-company-begins-tunneling-the-destinations-first-underground-people-mover-300959530.html)
LVCVA (2020): "under two minutes" https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/development-of-elon-musks-innovative-underground-transportation-system-achieves-milestone-301059887.html (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/development-of-elon-musks-innovative-underground-transportation-system-achieves-milestone-301059887.html)
LVCVA (2021): "just under two minutes" https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-look-inside-elon-musks-underground-transportation-system-beneath-the-las-vegas-convention-center-301266042.html (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-look-inside-elon-musks-underground-transportation-system-beneath-the-las-vegas-convention-center-301266042.html)

Reality (from world of concrete - last week)
Video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23b6LOXSwew (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23b6LOXSwew)
depart west station: 5:41
arr south station:   8:54
Total Time 3m 23s



-------------------------------
And the Math says...
Theorhetical fastest @ 44mph

What we know:
  LVCVA: "Doing 40mph"
  LVCVA: "10mph through the central station".
  'speed zone' in the middle of 10mph (5m/s) is about 80m long
  'speed zone' approaching the end station of a similar distance (note there's a 90 degree corner exiting one end, nasty)
  total tunnel distance: 1350m (0.85mi) - (not 1.7mi, that's counting both tunnels)

What we can assume:
Let's give them the benefit of the doubt, and assume 20m/s and 5m/s   (about 10% more than their claim, but makes the math easier)
Acelleration:  2m/s² (brisk, not back snapping)


START
accel:  0-20m/s @ 2m/s² for 10 seconds = 100m (ut + ½at²)
steady: 20m/s for 20 seconds = 400m

CENTRAL STATION: SLOW TO 5M/S
decel:  20-5m/s @ -2m/s² for 7½ seconds = 94m
steady: 5m/s for 16 seconds = 80m

CENTRAL STATION: SPEED UP AGAIN
accel:  5-20m/s @ 2m/s² for 7½ seconds = 94m
steady: 20m/s for 20 seconds = 400m

WEST STATION: SLOW TO ENTER STATION
decel:  20-5m/s @ -2m/s² for 7½ seconds = 94m
steady: 5m/s for 16 seconds = 80m (approach)
decel: 5-0m/s @ -2m/s² for 2½ seconds = 6m

END

time 107s absolutely best case assuming best case acceleration/deceleration, max speed maintained as long as possible, no impeding merge traffic, and no impeding pedestrian traffic (sad I have to add that 3rd one)




<sigh> I beginning to feel that people learned nothing from Solar Roadways and Batteriser
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: sandalcandal on June 15, 2021, 10:45:49 am
Good on you for doing the maths Boffin but I think you're still missing my points here.

4400 according to reasonable calculations as I said before cannot be met if you assume only 3 to 4 people per vehicle. I think you've taken this to mean the 4400 number is coming from counting journeys rather than a pphpd. My idea was that they are using "real" current numbers and extrapolating capacity on when the vehicles are capable of carrying 16 people instead.

107s for fastest possible most aggressive driving versus 159s real demonstration video. I mean you did the calculation yourself using "real" physically achievable values and you are getting a "just under 2 minutes" number. What's the problem? It is unreasonable for them to have done a similar calculation and used that as an estimated/advertised result? This is hardly on the level of Solar Roadways and Batteriser.

Edit: This is also still not factual evidence of how system capacity is being measured and marked as achieved. This is speculation based on assumptions and guess work which isn't unreasonable but still not "factual". Again my guess is that they are using performance values of the current system and extrapolating to when vehicle capacity is increased. AFAIK there was been no detailed reports released on how they actually determined the "4400 passengers per hour" target has been reached. All we have is speculations which have done little to rule out the ability of the system meet performance targets.

Again, I think we will see trip times taking >2min total but extrapolations (or actual achievement) using higher capacity vehicles.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 15, 2021, 04:19:39 pm
Good on you for doing the maths Boffin but I think you're still missing my points here.

107s for fastest possible most aggressive driving versus 159s real demonstration video. I mean you did the calculation yourself using "real" physically achievable values and you are getting a "just under 2 minutes" number. What's the problem? It is unreasonable for them to have done a similar calculation and used that as an estimated/advertised result? This is hardly on the level of Solar Roadways and Batteriser.

Just a reminder the 159 second trip time is a vehicle that DOES NOT STOP.
In order to achieve the magic under 3m (2m39s), they will have people leaping in and out of moving vehicles ?

The lack of critical thinking here is EXACTLY on the level of Solar Roadways and Batteriser

Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: fourfathom on June 15, 2021, 04:57:40 pm
I think the lack of critical thinking is to look at this as anything other than an amusement park ride.  This is *LAS VEGAS*, where people build pyramids and Eiffel Tower replicas.  The passengers don't care about how many seconds they save, they just want a fun ride from the convention to the casino, then to the show.  The project is a success if it brings in more customers and they gamble away more money.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 16, 2021, 12:06:12 am
I think the lack of critical thinking is to look at this as anything other than an amusement park ride.  This is *LAS VEGAS*, where people build pyramids and Eiffel Tower replicas.  The passengers don't care about how many seconds they save, they just want a fun ride from the convention to the casino, then to the show.  The project is a success if it brings in more customers and they gamble away more money.

Well done, jumping in and not even understanding where this is. 

People wont use this for a 'fun ride', not to the casino, nor to the show.

This is *not* open to the average Las Vegas visitor.  This is a private connection between two sections of the Las Vegas convention centre, that  are separated by Paradise Road, a major 6-lane north-south corridor running parallel, and just east of the 'strip'.
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: fourfathom on June 16, 2021, 12:37:07 am
Well done, jumping in and not even understanding where this is. 

People wont use this for a 'fun ride', not to the casino, nor to the show.

This is *not* open to the average Las Vegas visitor.  This is a private connection between two sections of the Las Vegas convention centre, that  are separated by Paradise Road, a major 6-lane north-south corridor running parallel, and just east of the 'strip'.

You may be right, but the Las Vegas Convention Center??? You mean the Las Vegas Convention Center where CES and so many other trade show events take place?  Where I used to go annually for COMDEX (before that one shut down)?  These trade shows bring in huge crowds, and OK, I guess the route doesn't hit the casinos, but the Loop is still there to encourage the trade-show visitors to come to Las Vegas.  They go to the casinos, shows, strip-clubs, restaurants, hotels, etc, when the trade show lets out for the day.  So what it it's not the most efficient people-mover?
Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 16, 2021, 05:45:17 am
You may be right, but the Las Vegas Convention Center??? You mean the Las Vegas Convention Center where CES and so many other trade show events take place?  Where I used to go annually for COMDEX (before that one shut down)?  These trade shows bring in huge crowds, and OK, I guess the route doesn't hit the casinos, but the Loop is still there to encourage the trade-show visitors to come to Las Vegas.  They go to the casinos, shows, strip-clubs, restaurants, hotels, etc, when the trade show lets out for the day.  So what it it's not the most efficient people-mover?

if you used to go to Comdex, you may remember the Riviera hotel.  The west hall of the convention center now occupies that space; and the tunnel goes under Paradise to connect it to the main hall.

Comdex's history is kind of interesting, and actually for a good chunk of Comdex's life, it actually was 100% designed to avoid the convention center, and only use hotel convention space. Owner of Comdex (Sheldon Adelson), was making so much money out of Comdex, and his only significant expense was convention space, so he had the idea "I know, I'll build a giant convention center myself so I don't have to pay LVCVA...", so he bought the Las Vegas Sands hotel (which had a big property), and built the Sands convention center (which is where Comdex was in the mid 90s).  He then sold Comdex (the trade show) to Softbank, and used the money to fund knocking down the Sands and build the Venetian hotel (and attach it to their existing Sands convention center).  It's literally the hotel Comdex built.

Anyway, no one goes to the convention center (at least I would hope) so they can say "Hey, I rode in a car in a tunnel" (you can get that just being long-hauled out of McCarran airport)
What they really go to the convention center for is the cheap rate Wifi (this is from world of concrete last week)

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Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 24, 2021, 04:27:56 pm
https://twitter.com/SHillforVegas/status/1398497136623247361
Quote
Congratulations
@boringcompany
 -
@LVCVA
 Loop capacity testing exceeded 4400 passengers per hour on Tuesday, confirmed today after reviewing results. #OnlyVegas

You didn't read what I said.  I never said it couldn't carry 4400 passengers an hour.  I said the way they measure that is a very very different number than traditional transit systems, and represents only 1100 pphpd (which is what traditional systems measure in).  For example our local expo line is 25,000 pphpd. 



Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: boffin on June 24, 2021, 04:33:04 pm
Archive.org is awesome;

https://web.archive.org/web/20200730050640/https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop (https://web.archive.org/web/20200730050640/https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop)

Some of the highlights from the official LVCC Loop website last summer




Title: Re: Elon Musk's Vegas Loop... Debunking.
Post by: wraper on June 24, 2021, 05:36:36 pm
https://twitter.com/SHillforVegas/status/1398497136623247361
Quote
Congratulations
@boringcompany
 -
@LVCVA
 Loop capacity testing exceeded 4400 passengers per hour on Tuesday, confirmed today after reviewing results. #OnlyVegas

You didn't read what I said.  I never said it couldn't carry 4400 passengers an hour.  I said the way they measure that is a very very different number than traditional transit systems, and represents only 1100 pphpd (which is what traditional systems measure in).  For example our local expo line is 25,000 pphpd.
What is your problem? What matters is that it exceeds what's written in the contract. pphpd you talk about all over the place is irrelevant.