Author Topic: EU tariffs on US goods come into force  (Read 10390 times)

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Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #125 on: June 29, 2018, 01:03:13 am »
So Trump goes after the big important commodities like a proper mercantilist. EU fucks around with scattershot which will just harm the economy with red tape ... no one is going to see a business opportunity in this, by the time the R&D is finished all this will be water under the bridge. Nice going EU, you make Trump look smart.

"anything with an internal combustion engine"

Only one which makes sense, almost always big ticket items for which there are existing EU market alternatives.

PS. I guess orange juice, jeans and shoes too.
The EU targets agriculture and industries that can predominantly found in red states. In short, they're going after Trump supporters. Just because it looks random to you doesn't mean it actually is. :)
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #126 on: June 29, 2018, 01:24:16 am »
Yes, there are certainly losers, and the USA has been loosing at trade for the past 43 years consecutively... yes 43 years of a negative trade balance!

in fact the slide began before that, and can be traced back to the post WWII era.
i would point you to this graph to depict us tariff rates and the slide of the trade imbalance.

now let us compare that post wwII debt  ... its an interesting comparison.. isn't it.

sorry these charts don't end at the same dates... just found something quick to illustrate the point
What exactly do you think a negative trade balance is? People somehow seem to think that the "negative" part denotes something bad and that's certainly how Trump seems to picture it, but it's just a metric. It's like saying a negative voltage is bad. Having a negative trade balance does not mean "losing at trade". From Wikipedia: "The notion that bilateral trade deficits are bad in and of themselves is overwhelmingly rejected by trade experts and economists."

Economists say as much. The US had a stellar trade surplus during The Great Depression, for example. Either Trump is using it as a ploy and banks on people not understanding the concept, or doesn't understand the concept himself. It can't be used as a metric for "winning" or "losing" in the way it's used now.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 01:32:04 am by Mr. Scram »
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #127 on: June 29, 2018, 01:38:41 am »
The recent Senate approved increase in military spending alone is enough to provide free public college education
FWIW free education in US could be implemented for the money currently spent. State backed student loans might seem like a good thing, but in reality because of that education cost became so ridiculously inflated that barely anyone can afford it without a loan. Same goes for housing, if there were no easy loans, people could afford it without taking any loans which they need to pay back for decades. Say from my experience with my sister who lives in UK. In 2013 she heard that government will be backing loans for young families, so they can take mortgage even if they cannot save for like 20% deposit. She asked me to loan her like 15k EUR+ ASAP. Then she hurriedly bought a house in mortgage. And like half a year later, as soon as that crap was implemented, prices skyrocketed. House which she bought, now a few years later would cost twice as much.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help_to_Buy
I've had almost this exact discussion recently with someone in the banking world. Lending money to everyone just leads people to compete for the same resources, except now with a crippling debt attached. It's an arms race and as always the house, or the arms dealer always wins.
 

Offline stj

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #128 on: June 29, 2018, 02:28:43 am »
@wraper:

try adding the long term unemployed who are on schemes and not listed,
and the young who are forced into part-time "training" and not listed.
then add the people who cant claim benefits for months because they where previously registered as "self employed" - something a lot of employment agency's make people do.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 02:30:18 am by stj »
 

Offline innkeeper

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #129 on: June 29, 2018, 02:37:32 am »
it wasn't so funny back in WWII when no one was there to help stop the invasion fo Poland now was it.

LOL, US citizens and their partial view of the rest of the world strikes again... I gather that maybe 8..9 out of 10 polish would have preferred the german occupation to what the allies left them with: Yalta was a betrayal. IOW: thank you for nothing. (I'm not polish)

 :palm:  WWII started with the invasion of Poland
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Offline innkeeper

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #130 on: June 29, 2018, 03:19:12 am »
All of the countries with major trade imbalances have a significant foreign debt

Negative trade imbalance rankcountryImbalance Millions USDForign Debt RankForign Debt Millions USD
1 United States462000121171000000
2 United Kingdom9142028475956000
3 Canada55570111931900000
4 Turkey3895026453207000
5 India3368022453207000
6 Brazil2899020556418000
7 France2892055689745000
8 Algeria228701363139000
9 Argentina2213035363117000
10 Australia21680141487720000
11 Egypt198305767,322,600,
12 Mexico1981028437367000
13 Indonesia1703031335289000
14 Iraq122205668010000
15 Colombia1170045121097200
16 Pakistan116705382980700
17 Oman103008820850000
18 South Africa981042142833000
19 Lebanon94887227796000
20 Kazakhstan829139165501000
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Offline IanB

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #131 on: June 29, 2018, 03:26:31 am »
All of the countries with major trade imbalances have a significant foreign debt

When do you feel more comfortable? When you have lent lots of money to other people, and you are concerned about them paying it back? Or when you have borrowed lots of money from other people, and your bank balance is swelled by all that money?
I'm not an EE--what am I doing here?
 

Offline Rick Law

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #132 on: June 29, 2018, 03:48:55 am »
...
...
 "The notion that bilateral trade deficits are bad in and of themselves is overwhelmingly rejected by trade experts and economists."

Economists say as much. The US had a stellar trade surplus during The Great Depression, for example. Either Trump is using it as a ploy and banks on people not understanding the concept, or doesn't understand the concept himself. It can't be used as a metric for "winning" or "losing" in the way it's used now.

Re:Expert opinions

Now that is a difference between here and there.  Here in the EE forum, we are science and fact base.  When you say V=IR or too much current will make a resister hot, those are stuff we can test and repeatable.  So, EE expert opinion (unless from a fake expert) can be counted on.

For stuff like economy/trade, expert opinions are just opinions.  I place very little credibility on them until I know the opinion giver (and his/her body of work) well.

I do know math - I know when a business buys more than it can sell, unless that changes, that business is going bust.  So I found it hard to believe these expert opinions that (on an on-going basis) spending more on trade than we earn from trade can possibly be good.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #133 on: June 29, 2018, 05:18:34 am »
Re:Expert opinions

Now that is a difference between here and there.  Here in the EE forum, we are science and fact base.  When you say V=IR or too much current will make a resister hot, those are stuff we can test and repeatable.  So, EE expert opinion (unless from a fake expert) can be counted on.

For stuff like economy/trade, expert opinions are just opinions.  I place very little credibility on them until I know the opinion giver (and his/her body of work) well.

I do know math - I know when a business buys more than it can sell, unless that changes, that business is going bust.  So I found it hard to believe these expert opinions that (on an on-going basis) spending more on trade than we earn from trade can possibly be good.
Re:Re:Expert opinion

People seem to be making the most basic mistakes when it comes to economic matters. One can't compare a country to a business. Businesses can't create money. Countries can and do create money. That completely negates any simplistic in versus out comparisons. We're not just talking about printing money either, we're talking about value being created. Actual material wealth, not just numbers. The wealth of a nation can and does increase without surplus trade.

It's very possible that having a trade deficit is actually good for creating wealth, causing you to accumulate more wealthy quicker. After all, if you can purchase the means for creating wealth at a much lower cost it's much more easily done.

Economists aren't always agreeing and regularly wrong because it's an incredibly complicated subject with many parts interacting. Having people applying their homegrown seat of the pants logic without really understanding even the basic ingredients is bound to lead to all sorts of misconceptions.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 05:32:56 am by Mr. Scram »
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #134 on: June 29, 2018, 05:30:50 am »
All of the countries with major trade imbalances have a significant foreign debt

Negative trade imbalance rankcountryImbalance Millions USDForign Debt RankForign Debt Millions USD
1 United States462000121171000000
2 United Kingdom9142028475956000
3 Canada55570111931900000
4 Turkey3895026453207000
5 India3368022453207000
6 Brazil2899020556418000
7 France2892055689745000
8 Algeria228701363139000
9 Argentina2213035363117000
10 Australia21680141487720000
11 Egypt198305767,322,600,
12 Mexico1981028437367000
13 Indonesia1703031335289000
14 Iraq122205668010000
15 Colombia1170045121097200
16 Pakistan116705382980700
17 Oman103008820850000
18 South Africa981042142833000
19 Lebanon94887227796000
20 Kazakhstan829139165501000
If anything, this list shows there isn't any correlation between trade deficit and international debt. Both rankings would be much more similar, while only the top two follow the predicted pattern.

If that weren't enough, Russia, China and Japan all have very large positive trade balances. Those are respectively ranked number 21, 13 and 7 on the foreign debt list.

Like the previous post, it seems to be random data that is presented in a way that fits the narrative.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #135 on: June 29, 2018, 06:08:05 am »
   
When do you feel more comfortable? When you have lent lots of money to other people, and you are concerned about them paying it back? Or when you have borrowed lots of money from other people, and your bank balance is swelled by all that money?
Assuming no leverage, definitely as a lender ... if they default I still have my productivity and no debt. In the second case if my productivity drops I'll be in indentured servitude (see Argentina).
 

Offline Marco

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #136 on: June 29, 2018, 06:20:16 am »
It's very possible that having a trade deficit is actually good for creating wealth, causing you to accumulate more wealthy quicker. After all, if you can purchase the means for creating wealth at a much lower cost it's much more easily done.

The means for creating wealth are natural resources and human capital. The US mostly imports items high on the value chain, so that leaves human capital ... it is the beneficiary of international brain drain, attracted to the living standards artificially raised by their trade deficit (at least for the higher incomes). Brain drain might be positive for the US, but it distorts international economies.

IMO universal trade balances are much better for raising all boats.
 

Offline batteksystem

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #137 on: June 29, 2018, 07:06:52 am »
If the EU was serious about tariffs that hurt the US they would all be on weapons and military gear and air planes.

In case of trade war escalating, these things are not completely not on table. Although since government are mostly likely the only user, they are actually hurting themselves in case those components are not replaceable.

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #138 on: June 29, 2018, 07:22:27 am »
The means for creating wealth are natural resources and human capital. The US mostly imports items high on the value chain, so that leaves human capital ... it is the beneficiary of international brain drain, attracted to the living standards artificially raised by their trade deficit (at least for the higher incomes). Brain drain might be positive for the US, but it distorts international economies.

IMO universal trade balances are much better for raising all boats.
Importing items to provide much more valuable services can create value and wealth. If Dave can afford one US built crane and Bob can afford three foreign cranes for the same money, who's going to build bridges faster? Autarky isn't realistic, especially in a world economy.
 

Online Zero999

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #139 on: June 29, 2018, 07:50:31 am »
All of the countries with major trade imbalances have a significant foreign debt

Negative trade imbalance rankcountryImbalance Millions USDForign Debt RankForign Debt Millions USD
1 United States462000121171000000
2 United Kingdom9142028475956000
3 Canada55570111931900000
4 Turkey3895026453207000
5 India3368022453207000
6 Brazil2899020556418000
7 France2892055689745000
8 Algeria228701363139000
9 Argentina2213035363117000
10 Australia21680141487720000
11 Egypt198305767,322,600,
12 Mexico1981028437367000
13 Indonesia1703031335289000
14 Iraq122205668010000
15 Colombia1170045121097200
16 Pakistan116705382980700
17 Oman103008820850000
18 South Africa981042142833000
19 Lebanon94887227796000
20 Kazakhstan829139165501000
If anything, this list shows there isn't any correlation between trade deficit and international debt. Both rankings would be much more similar, while only the top two follow the predicted pattern.

If that weren't enough, Russia, China and Japan all have very large positive trade balances. Those are respectively ranked number 21, 13 and 7 on the foreign debt list.

Like the previous post, it seems to be random data that is presented in a way that fits the narrative.
Even if there was a correlation, between trade imbalance and national debt, it wouldn't mean it's the cause.

Those figures are also misleading, because they don't take the population size into account.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 09:57:18 am by Hero999 »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #140 on: June 29, 2018, 08:13:39 am »
it wasn't so funny back in WWII when no one was there to help stop the invasion fo Poland now was it.
LOL, US citizens and their partial view of the rest of the world strikes again... I gather that maybe 8..9 out of 10 polish would have preferred the german occupation to what the allies left them with: Yalta was a betrayal. IOW: thank you for nothing. (I'm not polish)
:palm:  WWII started with the invasion of Poland
Nope. Japan invaded China in 1937. The invasion of Poland was in 1939.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Alex Nikitin

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #141 on: June 29, 2018, 09:14:57 am »
Nope. Japan invaded China in 1937. The invasion of Poland was in 1939.

 :palm:

And Genghis Khan attacked Western Xia in 1209 !

Cheers

Alex
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #142 on: June 29, 2018, 09:41:43 am »
it wasn't so funny back in WWII when no one was there to help stop the invasion fo Poland now was it.
LOL, US citizens and their partial view of the rest of the world strikes again... I gather that maybe 8..9 out of 10 polish would have preferred the german occupation to what the allies left them with: Yalta was a betrayal. IOW: thank you for nothing. (I'm not polish)
:palm:  WWII started with the invasion of Poland

Invasion? Really? Have a look at these maps of Poland:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_Poland#1918

And please, stop watching "The world at war", it's entertaining, but mostly just a pile of shameful british propaganda. Good for them!  >:D

Many say the first shot of WWII was fired at Westerplatte, just next to the Free City of Danzig:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westerplatte
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Gda%C5%84sk#Free_City_(1920–1939)

Quote
Following Germany's defeat in World War I, the Allied powers in the Treaty of Versailles (1919) decided to create the Free City of Danzig (under a commissioner appointed by the League of Nations) covering the city itself, the seaport, and a substantial surrounding territory. The League of Nations rejected the citizens' petition to have their city officially named as the Free Hanseatic city of Danzig (Freie Hansestadt Danzig).[43] The citizens of Danzig received a separate citizenship of the Free City and thus lost their former German citizenship
« Last Edit: July 08, 2018, 03:59:47 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Online nctnico

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #143 on: June 29, 2018, 09:43:15 am »
Nope. Japan invaded China in 1937. The invasion of Poland was in 1939.
And Genghis Khan attacked Western Xia in 1209 !
But that wasn't the start of the conflict we call WW2.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline stj

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #144 on: June 29, 2018, 09:57:40 am »
germany invaded poland because poland was shielding bolshevik terrorists.

it was all a setup anyway, britain had told them they would protect them if they did - and lied.
poland was the trap, the bolshevik terrorists were the cheese.

now the question is: will poland be stupid enough to be tricked into getting invaded to start the next war??
has NATO made promises to protect poland in exchange for using it as a giant forward operating base?
 

Offline innkeeper

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #145 on: June 29, 2018, 06:59:32 pm »
 |O think the point is now lost in the minutia.
Hobbyist and a retired engineer and possibly a test equipment addict, though, searching for the equipment to test for that.
 

Offline Rick Law

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #146 on: June 29, 2018, 07:10:29 pm »
Nope. Japan invaded China in 1937. The invasion of Poland was in 1939.
And Genghis Khan attacked Western Xia in 1209 !
But that wasn't the start of the conflict we call WW2.

Invasion of Poland is not the start of WW2 either.  September 1939 Poland invasion merely started Britain's and France's engagements with Germany turning a border war into a regional war.  Russia and the USA were at peace at the time while other regional wars were going on.

-  Operation Barbarossa was June 1941 which brought Russia into the war against Germany
-  Pearl Harbor in December 7, 1941 brought USA into the Asia regional war
-  Germany declared war on USA on December 11, 1941 - this joined the Asia/Europe wars into one

If you consider the start of any of the belligerence nations starting a fight with each other as the start of WWII, Japan's invasion of China (Marco Polo Bridge incidence) would probably be it.  But that was a regional war.  Not until Asia and European regional wars were joined that the regional wars were thought of as different theaters of a single war - a World-War.

According to Victor David Hanson (VDH): even at the time, it was not thought of as world war until late 1941.  VDH is not your run-of-the-mill farmer.  VDH is a Senior Fellow in classics and military history at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and chairs the working group on Military History.  So I consider him an authority on the subject.

You can listen to him saying that (WWII wasn't thought of a world war till late 1941) on his lecture at Hillsdale on Why WWII Matters here:




« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 07:16:29 pm by Rick Law »
 

Offline schmitt trigger

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #147 on: June 29, 2018, 07:40:09 pm »
Thanks Rick for the very interesting video.

I also agree with the assessment that individual local conflagrations grew and grew until the whole world was engulfed in flames. And thus became a WW.

By the same reasoning it could be argued that the Spanish Civil War was a prelude -by proxy, of WW2. Combatants that faced each other indirectly, eventually fought hand to hand.
 

Offline Mr. Scram

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #148 on: June 29, 2018, 11:16:25 pm »
Invasion of Poland is not the start of WW2 either.  September 1939 Poland invasion merely started Britain's and France's engagements with Germany turning a border war into a regional war.  Russia and the USA were at peace at the time while other regional wars were going on.

-  Operation Barbarossa was June 1941 which brought Russia into the war against Germany
-  Pearl Harbor in December 7, 1941 brought USA into the Asia regional war
-  Germany declared war on USA on December 11, 1941 - this joined the Asia/Europe wars into one

If you consider the start of any of the belligerence nations starting a fight with each other as the start of WWII, Japan's invasion of China (Marco Polo Bridge incidence) would probably be it.  But that was a regional war.  Not until Asia and European regional wars were joined that the regional wars were thought of as different theaters of a single war - a World-War.

According to Victor David Hanson (VDH): even at the time, it was not thought of as world war until late 1941.  VDH is not your run-of-the-mill farmer.  VDH is a Senior Fellow in classics and military history at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and chairs the working group on Military History.  So I consider him an authority on the subject.

You can listen to him saying that (WWII wasn't thought of a world war till late 1941) on his lecture at Hillsdale on Why WWII Matters here:


Re:Re:Re:Expert opinions
 

Online nctnico

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Re: EU tariffs on US goods come into force
« Reply #149 on: June 29, 2018, 11:21:27 pm »
Agreed. The war didn't start at the point when it met the requirements for being a world war. It started earlier so you can just as easely say that the first invasion was the start of the world war.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 


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