EV-based road transportation is not viable

[tom66]

WTF?  Since when under normal street driving conditions you are using maximum acceleration and maximum braking power?  So much so that you observe slight timing differences always accelerating from 0-60s.  If you are not in a racing environment, such things are mute.

Exactly.  It's a non issue that EVs accelerate worse in colder weather... which is my point... other factors determine that you're not going to be driving like a nutter in such conditions (or at least you won't be doing it for long...)

[tggzzz]

Normally the car does 6.8s to 60 in...

I know 12-14yo kids people that suddenly become very alert if it takes more than 5s to get to 60. But they are trained (and retrained annually) in what to do when that happens

[tom66]

What's your verdict on PHEVs? My 2003 Toyota will need replacing sometime, and I ought to understand the tradeoffs.

Put it this way:  been fun to own one for four years but I would not buy one right now. 

In theory best of both worlds.  Electric for short journeys.  Petrol for longer ones.  If you can make the electric work for you (you "have" to use home charging IMO) then it's great.

Cost-wise on the used market my car is about £10k.  So for an "EV" that can do 90% of your driving on electric it's excellent value (comparable 200+ mile range EVs are more like £17-25k).   However I would say it's only worth buying one if you have charging at all your major destinations.  For instance, I used to commute 12 miles to work and had charging there and at home. So all of my commute was electric.  I was getting 2,000 miles to a tank of fuel.  When I migrated south, I couldn't get such a close home, and no charging at work. So I've been using my car as a true hybrid for the last 2 years, charging only at one end giving a partial benefit to economy, but not an amazing one.  It returns around 50-70 mpg in such a configuration (90 mile round trip, ~20 miles electrified), so as good as most diesel cars, but it has 204 hp, so merging onto the dual carriageway (very short left hand turn) is easy .

If you really want to use the EV function, you ideally use public charging too.  So the 7kW spots in parking garages etc.  Those can be mixed in reliability and it's frustrating to have to use petrol on the way back if you could have done in on electric had that bloody BP Pulse charger actually bothered to work.  But I suppose it doesn't matter that much, if you have petrol, it just means it costs/pollutes more, which may or may not matter to you.  Public charging is also more expensive than home charging, but still cheaper than petrol for AC charging around here.  Most PHEVs don't use rapid chargers, 3kW AC is a typical limit, so 2-3 hours charging time is normal.

In theory the wear and  tear on the battery is worse because it's so small.  But the battery in my car replaced when it was 3 years old (due to recall, not failure, just after I bought it) and it is still holding up well, doing approximately the same range as when new - now 4 years old.  It must have over 1,000 cycles on it already.   

I would expect these cars will become more of a maintenance liability as they get older... the GTE's for instance have a triple clutch gearbox and I've heard this extra clutch can fail, meaning the engine can't start... that can be a £2k bill for instance.   Most of the older models will be going out of battery warranty too.  So maybe not for someone who's coming from legendary Toyota reliability. 

[nctnico]

IMHO the hybrids from Toyota are the best choice when looking for a second hand car. I looked at a whole lot of hybrids and these seem to be the most reliable and least costly to maintain.

[tszaboo]

IMHO the hybrids from Toyota are the best choice when looking for a second hand car. I looked at a whole lot of hybrids and these seem to be the most reliable and least costly to maintain.

Just paid 230 EUR for the yearly maintenance, APK of my 12 year old Prius. I was considering to replace it with a Mercedes C class plug-in, but the maintenance is 1200 EUR/year, which is more than what I spend on fuel and tax each year. So thx but no thanks, I will probably drive this car until it falls apart (which it doesn't). Only parts that needed replacing over it's lifetime was the airco compressor, and the 12V battery, breaks (went rusty) and windshield vipers. Meanwhile I know people that spent more on repairing their 3 year old Tesla, than me on my car during it's entire lifetime.

All this "EV will break the power grid" is a bunch of nonsense. It was taught in the university, that renewable energy cannot get more than 5% of the total, and the "entire grid will collapse". The professor came to the class and told us that it's not feasible, there will be blackouts, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. And look at us now, the lights are on.

[tggzzz]

What's your verdict on PHEVs? My 2003 Toyota will need replacing sometime, and I ought to understand the tradeoffs.

Put it this way:  been fun to own one for four years but I would not buy one right now. 

In theory best of both worlds.  Electric for short journeys.  Petrol for longer ones.  If you can make the electric work for you (you "have" to use home charging IMO) then it's great.

Cost-wise on the used market my car is about £10k.  So for an "EV" that can do 90% of your driving on electric it's excellent value (comparable 200+ mile range EVs are more like £17-25k).   However I would say it's only worth buying one if you have charging at all your major destinations.  For instance, I used to commute 12 miles to work and had charging there and at home. So all of my commute was electric.  I was getting 2,000 miles to a tank of fuel.  When I migrated south, I couldn't get such a close home, and no charging at work. So I've been using my car as a true hybrid for the last 2 years, charging only at one end giving a partial benefit to economy, but not an amazing one.  It returns around 50-70 mpg in such a configuration (90 mile round trip, ~20 miles electrified), so as good as most diesel cars, but it has 204 hp, so merging onto the dual carriageway (very short left hand turn) is easy .

I don't see much advantage to PHEVs except in urban driving where regenerative braking might help and the ICE can be kept running at optimum speed.

If you really want to use the EV function, you ideally use public charging too.  So the 7kW spots in parking garages etc.  Those can be mixed in reliability and it's frustrating to have to use petrol on the way back if you could have done in on electric had that bloody BP Pulse charger actually bothered to work. 

That's the classic problem with public charging points, and one that puts me off all EVs.

I would expect these cars will become more of a maintenance liability as they get older... the GTE's for instance have a triple clutch gearbox and I've heard this extra clutch can fail, meaning the engine can't start... that can be a £2k bill for instance.   Most of the older models will be going out of battery warranty too.  So maybe not for someone who's coming from legendary Toyota reliability.

I choose cars based on two things: are they comfortable to sit in, and are they reliable. I chose my last car in 2006 (a 2004 Mazda 2), and inherited the 2003 Toyoto "van equivalent".

[tggzzz]

IMHO the hybrids from Toyota are the best choice when looking for a second hand car. I looked at a whole lot of hybrids and these seem to be the most reliable and least costly to maintain.

Just paid 230 EUR for the yearly maintenance, APK of my 12 year old Prius. I was considering to replace it with a Mercedes C class plug-in, but the maintenance is 1200 EUR/year, which is more than what I spend on fuel and tax each year. So thx but no thanks, I will probably drive this car until it falls apart (which it doesn't). Only parts that needed replacing over it's lifetime was the airco compressor, and the 12V battery, breaks (went rusty) and windshield vipers. Meanwhile I know people that spent more on repairing their 3 year old Tesla, than me on my car during it's entire lifetime.

I replaced the oil/wipers on my Mazda, and had it serviced once every 5 years. Only thing that went wrong was that the front coil spring snapped while it was sitting in a drive. Twice (2 *£200 to replace); go figure! So 230EUR/year seems very expensive to me. It would still be on the road after 120k miles if some cretin hadn't driven into it while it was parked.

Toyota exhaust is finally giving problems w.r.t. rust. Replacement would be £1000 - after 19 years. Did once have a sensor fail; the recovery bloke said "don't see many of these (Toyotas)".

[nctnico]

All this "EV will break the power grid" is a bunch of nonsense. It was taught in the university, that renewable energy cannot get more than 5% of the total, and the "entire grid will collapse". The professor came to the class and told us that it's not feasible, there will be blackouts, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. And look at us now, the lights are on.

Actually Tennet, the company that controls the electricity grid in the NL has put out a warning last week that they expect electricity shortages within a few years from now.

[tom66]

All this "EV will break the power grid" is a bunch of nonsense. It was taught in the university, that renewable energy cannot get more than 5% of the total, and the "entire grid will collapse". The professor came to the class and told us that it's not feasible, there will be blackouts, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. And look at us now, the lights are on.

Actually Tennet, the company that control the electricity grid in the NL has put out a warning last week that they expect electricity shortages within a few years from now.

Did they specifically highlight EVs as a concern?

[nctnico]

All this "EV will break the power grid" is a bunch of nonsense. It was taught in the university, that renewable energy cannot get more than 5% of the total, and the "entire grid will collapse". The professor came to the class and told us that it's not feasible, there will be blackouts, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. And look at us now, the lights are on.

Actually Tennet, the company that control the electricity grid in the NL has put out a warning last week that they expect electricity shortages within a few years from now.

Did they specifically highlight EVs as a concern?

No, that is not their concern as they only concern themselves with sourcing electricity to distribute. But it is logical to conclude that you won't be able to charge your BEV during a blackout (or pay an insanely high price).

[tszaboo]

All this "EV will break the power grid" is a bunch of nonsense. It was taught in the university, that renewable energy cannot get more than 5% of the total, and the "entire grid will collapse". The professor came to the class and told us that it's not feasible, there will be blackouts, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria. And look at us now, the lights are on.

Actually Tennet, the company that control the electricity grid in the NL has put out a warning last week that they expect electricity shortages within a few years from now.

I think it has more to do with shutting down power plants without building new ones. And going with the "everything is bad" attitude. Gas, bad because Groningen will sink to the ocean (import?). Coal bad because it's coal, phase out by 2030. Nuclear bad because the soviets' managed to blow up one. The country haven't built a single power plant for the past 10 years, only wind. A smart planner would build a new generation gas fired plants, that are 5% more efficient than the plants built in the 90s and save countless amount of CO2 with that, instead of waiting for miracles to happen.

Now they figure out that nuclear is fine again. It takes a decade to build a plant in this century. Cannot wait to pay an EUR/kWh to import it from Germany. Oh wait, we are already there.

[tom66]

No, that is not their concern as they only concern themselves with sourcing electricity to distribute. But it is logical to conclude that you won't be able to charge your BEV during a blackout.

Right, but a great deal of EVs charge overnight when electricity is cheaper.   Will there be overnight blackouts?  Or is this more of a peak capacity / load shedding issue?

Blackouts are a big problem, but more of a problem for immediate use of electricity, which affects petrol pumps too. (Of course, you could drive further away to get petrol...but  the same applies for a fast charger.)  A blackout means you can't charge an EV or refuel with petrol, but both vehicles store some level of energy.  They will usually announce any rolling blackouts well in advance. 

It's sad that even such a possibility exists but doesn't change EV's as an option for me.

[tom66]

I think it has more to do with shutting down power plants without building new ones. And going with the "everything is bad" attitude. Gas, bad because Groningen will sink to the ocean (import?). Coal bad because it's coal, phase out by 2030. Nuclear bad because the soviets' managed to blow up one. The country haven't built a single power plant for the past 10 years, only wind. A smart planner would build a new generation gas fired plants, that are 5% more efficient than the plants built in the 90s and save countless amount of CO2 with that, instead of waiting for miracles to happen.

Now they figure out that nuclear is fine again. It takes a decade to build a plant in this century. Cannot wait to pay an EUR/kWh to import it from Germany. Oh wait, we are already there.

No need to build new nuclear as long as Russia keeps the gas going... oh. 

EU's overreliance on Russian gas will sting, I hope lessons are taken from this.   Why the policy with Nord Stream 2 was continued after Crimea and actions in Donbas will continue to baffle me.   Thankfully it appears the Dutch, Norwegians and other LNG sources are picking up enough to keep supply up for now.  The spot price is now <60EUR/MWh *merely* ~3x higher than it was pre-COVID.  How will next winter look - well gas futures are already lower than last year's winter so at least a little more positive.

This is the other advantage of EVs.  Oil comes from only a few countries, many of which are politically unstable (the "resource curse" is worth looking up if not familiar).  Electricity can be generated from many sources, from dirty coal, to less dirty gas, to solar, nuclear and wind.  Having that diversity is really crucial.

[nctnico]

Oil comes from many countries. The US is the world's biggest oil producer and there are several other countries in the top 10 that are very stable.

[tggzzz]

No, that is not their concern as they only concern themselves with sourcing electricity to distribute. But it is logical to conclude that you won't be able to charge your BEV during a blackout.

Right, but a great deal of EVs charge overnight when electricity is cheaper.   Will there be overnight blackouts?  Or is this more of a peak capacity / load shedding issue?

If you bother to read the official references for the UK,

• yes there will be scheduled overnight blackouts
• yes it is a peak capacity issue
• yes it is a load shedding issue
• and it is also none of those. No gas/wind => no electricity until more supplies arrive

Blackouts are a big problem, but more of a problem for immediate use of electricity, which affects petrol pumps too.

Now you are struggling with a very poor argument!

A few messages back you suggested that petrol powered generators are a solution to some issues. ICE cars would function just as well.

It's sad that even such a possibility exists but doesn't change EV's as an option for me.

Amateurs think about how things work. Professionals also think about how things will fail.

[tom66]

If you bother to read the official references for the UK,

• yes there will be scheduled overnight blackouts
• yes it is a peak capacity issue
• yes it is a load shedding issue
• and it is also none of those. No gas/wind => no electricity until more supplies arrive

Man! Your attitude !  Chill.  It's just an internet discussion.

I have actually read the load shedding spec for the UK's ESO, it is (to a casual observer) random at the lower levels distributed by postcode alpha (not actually related to postcodes though) and then going towards having less electricity at each step.  It has been suggested in the worst winter scenario we may enter shedding level 1 or 2.  I suspect we are past that risk now, unless we have an extremely cold January.  However, even in that case, I don't really see the issue for EVs.  Yes, you may not be able to charge in a blackout... but it's a 3 hour period.  Charge a bit later?  Or a bit earlier?  The blackouts, if they did happen, will be announced in advance as they are due to capacity and not random failures.  I think it's not really a big deal unless you get to the point where you have ~25% outage time or more, at which point the whole UK economy more or less grinds to a halt, we're looking at a three day week, so why are we so worried about charging, I'm more worried about where I'm going to get my food or toilet paper.

Also, I was replying to nctnico, who is in the Netherlands. So the UK's ESO shedding plan isn't even applicable!

Blackouts are a big problem, but more of a problem for immediate use of electricity, which affects petrol pumps too.

Now you are struggling with a very poor argument!

A few messages back you suggested that petrol powered generators are a solution to some issues. ICE cars would function just as well.

Amateurs think about how things work. Professionals also think about how things will fail.

If you actually bothered to read what I said ( ) the suggestion for a petrol generator was in case one is paranoid that they will not be able to charge their EV, they could always retain that as a backup.  However, I don't think that would be needed for all but the worst case scenarios.

ICE vehicles work fine except for the killing the planet/biosphere thing, plus the high ownership and running cost, and the local air pollution, and the inevitable supply issues with oil in the very long term.  Steam engines work fine too.  Not very convincing nowadays though are they.

[themadhippy]

Tennet, the company that controls the electricity grid in the NL has put out a warning last week that they expect electricity shortages within a few years from now.

At least you've got a couple of years to prepare,  the uk  press has been promising blackouts since  the middle of last year

bad because Groningen will sink to the ocean

Thats me convinced,t'is one of my favourite dutch citys.

[Marco]

Did they specifically highlight EVs as a concern?

They mention it, but it's not really their main concern. Coal closure between 2025 and 2030 is the big one, the rest is just fucking around in the margins.

They say they want more European interconnection, but at the end of the day everyone will just want to tap Scandinavian hydro during a dunkelflaute and there's not enough to go around.

[james_s]

What you are missing is that hydrogen is THE KEY ingredient for energy storage. Again: the entire world is moving towards hydrogen production (from wind + solar) and storage. In the next decade hydrogen made from renewable sources will be available in abundance. And cheap. Forecasts say that by 2050 hydrogen can be sold to consumers for US $5 per kilo. Even today it is cheaper to run a car from hydrogen compared to running a BEV from public charging. In every serious article about renewable energy, you'll find hydrogen being part of the solution. Now try to convince me again hydrogen is dead... Hydrogen cars are going to be what the LED lamps are today: a truly better solution compared to what we had. BEVs are the CCFL lamps we used to have as a temporary solution to have more efficient light bulbs.

No I'm not missing it, and no it isn't, hydrogen is dead, period. How many hydrogen filling stations do you have in your country? There is only one state in mine that has any at all and I am not aware of more being planned. The only reason there are any hydrogen cars on the road at all is that California offers enormous government subsidies for building alternative fuel cars. Have you not noticed that absolutely no car companies besides Toyota are even talking about hydrogen? They are literally all shifting to BEV or PHEV, all of them. You have your head in the sand to a greater degree than anyone else on this forum, you are obsessed with hydrogen to the point that you are in denial of the reality around you. It's dead.

[james_s]

ULEZ is anywhere within the North and South Circular roads, not including those roads itself.  It's a pretty big area to have to pay over a tenner a day to drive in, and not everyone who lives in that area is rich.  (You may have more of a point if you talk about the congestion charge as that's almost all zone 1). 

I know a few people not very happy with it, but ultimately it's one of those taxes that's necessary but never going to be pleasing for those who have to pay it. The whole point of it is to strongly discourage the usage of non ULEZ-compliant vehicles.

All it would do for me is discourage me from ever going into that area. I'll take my money elsewhere and spend it in areas that don't heavily tax me for going there. This kind of thing is one of the reason I loathe urban environments so much, taxes, tolls and paying for parking are completely foreign concepts to me. They put a toll on the 520 bridge when they rebuilt it ~15 years ago and I have not driven on it since.

[james_s]

As for buying a Tesla. Don't make me vomit.

It's unfortunate that your prejudice overrides your ability to consider even trying one. you should try driving one before you knock them, it's quite obvious that you haven't.

[james_s]

You'll also find ICE cars accelerate a bit worse in colder weather, so nothing new here.

Mine accelerates considerably better in cold weather. Cold air is more dense, the intercooler is much more efficient when the ambient air going through it is cold, and lower intake air temperature allows more timing advance before the onset of detonation. I don't know if modern cars have that advantage but in my 1990 Volvo it is very noticeable.

[tggzzz]

As for buying a Tesla. Don't make me vomit.

It's unfortunate that your prejudice overrides your ability to consider even trying one. you should try driving one before you knock them, it's quite obvious that you haven't.

My prejudice is the, ahem, "hopeful" statements that lead the unwary optimist to believe that the cars are capable of driving safely (beta).

More prosaically, my prejudice is that the salesman who know how to demonstrate the car can't even turn on the windscreen demister while the car is stationary. As for being able to turn it on safely while driving, don't make me laugh.

That needn't apply to other EVs in general, of course.

[themadhippy]

All it would do for me is discourage me from ever going into that area.

Dont work if you need to access that area with a van full of kit

[james_s]

My prejudice is the, ahem, "hopeful" statements that lead the unwary optimist to believe that the cars are capable of driving safely (beta).

More prosaically, my prejudice is that the salesman who know how to demonstrate the car can't even turn on the windscreen demister while the car is stationary. As for being able to turn it on safely while driving, don't make me laugh.

That needn't apply to other EVs in general, of course.

I have zero interest in any kind of self driving tech. I also do hate the touchscreen interface in the Tesla, however beyond that the driving experience is SO good (I spent a few weeks driving one so I have direct experience) that I could forgive the terrible interface. I mean modern cars in general are crap, they're all hideous, they all have those horrible touchscreens in the dash, at least the Tesla doesn't have a gigantic fake grill on the front like most cars do now. Look closely and you'll see the actual air intake for the radiator is a small slot somewhere in the expanse of an enormous black plastic grill. It looks idiotic to me.