General > General Technical Chat
EV-based road transportation is not viable
CatalinaWOW:
--- Quote from: TimFox on February 18, 2023, 04:09:41 pm ---My basic question about "viability":
The market for EVs continues to grow steadily, due to regular market forces and government subsidies.
What will stop it, if it be unviable?
--- End quote ---
I think it is viable. But viability and commercial success aren't the same thing. Look at local and long distance public transportation. Clearly viable, and demonstrated in many parts of the world. But it has filled a very small role here in the US for a variety of social and economic reasons.
The future is always tough to predict. The EV market seemed viable back at the start of the twentieth century. As far as I can tell two related things killed it. First was that gasoline was better able to compete with the then very undeveloped electrical network. So there was a larger market opportunity and the associated benefits of scaling. Second, as the electrical grid expanded it was AC, and technology to convert this to the DC needed for car charging was bulky and unreliable (if you look for where the EV vehicle penetration was greatest back then it was where DC power distribution was still available, or in some cases the only choice).
While it seems unlikely at the moment it is possible that hydrogen could do the same thing. Or something else unforeseen. Reality has a way of trumping everyone's dreams - especially the fanboys on both sides of the EV/ICE debate who wildly magnify the benefits of their favorite while magnifying the faults of the competitor.
nctnico:
Indeed. One of the technologies that can not be ruled out at this moment are bio-fuels made from residual waste from growing food. At the moment things are awfully quiet where it comes to expansion but there are several companies that are doing this on an industrial scale. The only problem is that at soon as you say 'bio fuel' somebody utterly uninformed about the latest state chimes in and goes around saying 'bio-fuels make people go hungry' while the opposite is actually true. If we use more from edible plants, it will be cheaper to grow food. Let's face it: from many plants we only eat the seeds / fruits while leaving quite a large amount of plant material that goes unused. Using bio-fuels would also mean the ICE is here to stay. And to those worried about pollution: running an ICE on methanol produces much less pollution compared to gasoline.
tggzzz:
The oldies are the goodies.
I remember, in the 70s, seeing an equivalent article about nuclear vs coal generated electricity.
https://geoff.greer.fm/2023/02/08/gasoline-car-review/
VK3DRB:
I don't own an EV, and quite frankly, the cost of ownership in this country is far too high for what you get. It is not very viable here.
Premier Daniel Andrews of the Victorian state government introduced a per kilometre tax on anyone driving EV's. We are the only jurisdiction in the world to have such a tax. It is 3 cents per km now, but I read it could rise significantly if and when EV's become popular. Bozo's rationale is that the EV drivers are dodging the fuel excise (tax) and it is unfair. You don't pay the tax, your EV is unregistered and if you then drive it you will cop a very hefty fine.
The state govt is being now taken to the High Court over this tax arguably being unconstitutional and illegal...
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/blockbuster-high-court-case-tests-validity-of-electric-vehicle-tax-20230214-p5ckce
If Dan's government wins, the other states may well follow this grab for cash. If they lose, a lot of money may need to be refunded based on an illegal tax (plus interest). Not the first time governments in Australia have been dodgy (ie: Robodebt - which had catastrophic consequences).
tom66:
It's a typical anti-EV policy by a government that's opposed to them for various reasons. From a quick Google it appears that Victoria state has huge oil and gas refining and resource, so you can imagine the lobbyists have a lot of influence.
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