EV-based road transportation is not viable

[MadScientist]

We know this, obvious is obvious, electric vehicles are a nonstarter and dead in the water. I don’t need to “qualify” my statement, the future will prove it

.

It will certainly disprove your silly conclusion.

BEVS will make up the majority of personal car transport within 10 years that’s the reality , a combination of changing social pressure , tax advantages and cost advantages will see to it.

Ice is dead as a dodo , it’s just a long runout in some cases but it will all gone in our kids lifetimes

[tom66]

Just like there are some Ford Model-T's around, there will still be ICE vehicles around. They will not go extinct.  But the majority will not drive them.

[mikeselectricstuff]

We know this, obvious is obvious, electric vehicles are a nonstarter and dead in the water. I don’t need to “qualify” my statement, the future will prove it

.

It will certainly disprove your silly conclusion.

BEVS will make up the majority of personal car transport within 10 years that’s the reality , a combination of changing social pressure , tax advantages and cost advantages will see to it.

Not to mention that they're just so much nicer to use and drive, and convenient if you can charge at home.
In places with less reliable power, their potential as a temporary power source will also be a significant selling point.
Ask most EV drivers if they'd ever go back to ICE, very few would.

[nctnico]

We know this, obvious is obvious, electric vehicles are a nonstarter and dead in the water. I don’t need to “qualify” my statement, the future will prove it

.

It will certainly disprove your silly conclusion.

BEVS will make up the majority of personal car transport within 10 years that’s the reality , a combination of changing social pressure , tax advantages and cost advantages will see to it.

Ice is dead as a dodo , it’s just a long runout in some cases but it will all gone in our kids lifetimes

Maybe in your little corner of the world. Car makers expect that 80% to 90% of world wide car sales will be ICE based by 2050.

[tom66]

Maybe in your little corner of the world. Car makers expect that 80% to 90% of world wide car sales will be ICE based by 2050.

[citation needed]

[nctnico]

Maybe in your little corner of the world. Car makers expect that 80% to 90% of world wide car sales will be ICE based by 2050.

[citation needed]

See KPMG automotive reports.

[eti]

There’s gonna be a world egg shortage for all the egg that’s gonna be all over the faces of the EV delusionals. Whoops.

[Marco]

See KPMG automotive reports.

The predictions are for 2030.

[tom66]

In the 2022 report, the only thing I can see relevant is that they believe EV's may not replace ICE by 2030 worldwide,  they don't make any predictions about 2050.  They are less optimistic than 2021 (possibly due to continuing semiconductor headaches.)  Though they still believe cost parity for EV's will be met by 2030 - as observed in UK/EU cost parity has already been reached in some sectors like luxury/SUV and in other sectors it is approaching parity like in small cars.

This is just a survey of executives too, they would be quite happy to sell ICE vehicles as it's something they know well, EV's represent a risk that they would rather not take on.

Edit: Looks like Marco beat me to it

[tggzzz]

Not to mention that [BEV are] just so much nicer to use and drive, and convenient if you can charge at home.

That caveat is rather important and too easily (and frequently) overlooked by zealots.

Good luck with that in historic areas (where modifications are difficult to illegal) or high rise areas (tower blocks or flats) where there are no dedicated parking spaces, or there are too few parking spaces on the roads (think of the roads around Grenfell tower). ISTR reading that is about 40% of the population falls into those "traps".

In places with less reliable power, their potential as a temporary power source will also be a significant selling point.

Problem: have to make an unexpected (possibly emergency) journey, go to your BEV and find the battery charge has become insufficient. Expletives fill the air.

Ask most EV drivers if they'd ever go back to ICE, very few would.

That attitude is exactly what you would expect from enthusiastic "early adopters", for a variety of psychological reasons.

The first X% is always low-hanging fruit. The last X% is always the problem with bans and cutoff dates.

[Miyuki]

Just like there are some Ford Model-T's around, there will still be ICE vehicles around. They will not go extinct.  But the majority will not drive them.

Not to mention that they're just so much nicer to use and drive, and convenient if you can charge at home.
In places with less reliable power, their potential as a temporary power source will also be a significant selling point.
Ask most EV drivers if they'd ever go back to ICE, very few would.

Exactly
Even now people are having their classic cars in storage and taking them for nice road trips.
It will just push all ICE vehicles to that category.
It is really nice to sit in a car with real leather and wood inside And fire up a gas-guzzling noise-making machine. 
But BEVs are slowly becoming cheaper than ICEs. There are still not many BEVs in the affordable class, but in premium, you are very close in buying price and operation is cheaper.
So it is just a matter of time for most users.
Except for some rare cases with far far away locations where will be ICE with some backup synthetic fuel. You won't use BEV to travel from nowhere with the closest civilization a few days away. But this is a really rare case.
And even then it will be good to have one BEV to move around in close range.

[Miyuki]

What will be there for a longer time are motorcycles with ICE.
As there is an issue with range when you want to move at a reasonable speed.
At higher speed drag of a motorcycle with the rider sitting can be bigger than modern cars.
And you just have no way to carry that huge battery with you.
Plus most bikers are hugely conservative about it 

[nctnico]

What will be there for a longer time are motorcycles with ICE.

Disagree. A motorcycle is far more suitable for electrification compared to a car. Also due to lack of emission controls on motorcycles, there is a lot more to gain.

[tggzzz]

What will be there for a longer time are motorcycles with ICE.

Disagree. A motorcycle is far more suitable for electrification compared to a car. Also due to lack of emission controls on motorcycles, there is a lot more to gain.

In that case for the owner the emissions are an "externality" (economists) or "SEP" (Douglas Adams).

[BravoV]

Some perspectives ...

-> EV makers put China on course to overtake Japan as the world’s top car exporter

Quotes ...

.. "China exported 3.11 million vehicles in 2022 ...
.. "Japanese carmakers shipped 3.2 million vehicles abroad in the first 11 months of 2022 ..

[tom66]

There are a large number of EV manufacturers from China breaking through into the UK/EU market.

Off the top of my head you have MG (SAIC), Maxus vans (also SAIC), Ora (a small brand, only with the "Ora Cat" for now, a rather interesting vehicle - a subsidiary of Great Wall), as well as Nio (in EU already, entering UK market in 2023) and I've definitely seen some BYD buses around the UK too.  Oh and Geely, who own Volvo, with Polestar and the Volvo Cars brand, as a more established brand, but they are making all Polestars in China right now.

The competition in the EV space will be fierce from China and Japan could very well lose their vehicular dominance if they fail to keep up with the competition.  The lack of development from Nissan, still using the same outdated passively cooled battery packs that deteriorate almost as fast as a lettuce, and Toyota and Honda is rather telling.   Of course, they're betting on hydrogen and ICE, but it's a very brave bet given where things look to be going.

Edit: corrected typo

[eti]

Gosh the video in the opening post is just fantastic. He’s sane, rational, calm and logical. He’s also right on all counts.

[mikeselectricstuff]

We know this, obvious is obvious, electric vehicles are a nonstarter and dead in the water. I don’t need to “qualify” my statement, the future will prove it

.

It will certainly disprove your silly conclusion.

BEVS will make up the majority of personal car transport within 10 years that’s the reality , a combination of changing social pressure , tax advantages and cost advantages will see to it.

Ice is dead as a dodo , it’s just a long runout in some cases but it will all gone in our kids lifetimes

Maybe in your little corner of the world. Car makers expect that 80% to 90% of world wide car sales will be ICE based by 2050.

Those car makers will most likely be bankrupt long before 2050

[eti]

In the 2022 report, the only thing I can see relevant is that they believe EV's may not replace ICE by 2030 worldwide,  they don't make any predictions about 2050.  They are less optimistic than 2021 (possibly due to continuing semiconductor headaches.)  Though they still believe cost parity for EV's will be met by 2030 - as observed in UK/EU cost parity has already been reached in some sectors like luxury/SUV and in other sectors it is approaching parity like in small cars.

This is just a survey of executives too, they would be quite happy to sell ICE vehicles as it's something they know well, EV's represent a risk that they would rather not take on.

Edit: Looks like Marco beat me to it

"May not", in bullshit-free, plain speaking world, = "Absolutely won't AND we know it, but don't have the courage or honesty to admit it"

[mikeselectricstuff]

Even now people are having their classic cars in storage and taking them for nice road trips.

and many classic car owners are also getting them converted them to EV to make them more practical to use day-to-day, and outperform their ICE engines.

[MadScientist]

There are a large number of EV manufacturers from China breaking through into the UK/EU market.

Off the top of my head you have MG (SAIC), Maxus vans (also SAIC), Ora (a small brand, only with the "Ora Cat" for now, a rather interesting vehicle - a subsidiary of Great Wall), as well as Nio (in EU already, entering UK market in 2023) and I've definitely seen some BYD buses around the UK too.  Oh and Geely, who own Volvo, with Polestar and the Volvo Cars brand, as a more established brand, but they are making all Polestars in China right now.

The competition in the EV space will be fierce from China and Japan could very well lose their vehicular dominance if they fail to keep up with the competition.  The lack of development from Nissan, still using the same outdated passively cooled battery packs that deteriorate almost as fast as a lettuce, and Toyota and Honda is rather telling.   Of course, they're betting on hydrogen and ICE, but it's a very brave bet given where things look to be going.

Edit: corrected typo

Funny so my nearly 6 year old leaf 30 kw has 80 % capacity remaining after 250,000 km.

[rstofer]

There's video all over the Internet re: the new (concept) Dodge Charger.  Nine different performance brackets (priced accordingly) and the max is 1100 HP and estimated to cost $115k plus options (there are always options).  It even has 4 task modes:  Drive, Drift, Drag and Donut.  This thing should be a kick in the ass to drive.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/08/18/dodge-charger-daytona-ev-electric-muscle-car-fj-orig.cnn-business

There are several other videos re: the probable 2024 release.

Talk about 'conspicuous consumption' of kWh...

My wife just said there will be no tapping of the 401(k) to buy a hotrod - she has no sense of adventure...

[MadScientist]

In the 2022 report, the only thing I can see relevant is that they believe EV's may not replace ICE by 2030 worldwide,  they don't make any predictions about 2050.  They are less optimistic than 2021 (possibly due to continuing semiconductor headaches.)  Though they still believe cost parity for EV's will be met by 2030 - as observed in UK/EU cost parity has already been reached in some sectors like luxury/SUV and in other sectors it is approaching parity like in small cars.

This is just a survey of executives too, they would be quite happy to sell ICE vehicles as it's something they know well, EV's represent a risk that they would rather not take on.

Edit: Looks like Marco beat me to it

"May not", in bullshit-free, plain speaking world, = "Absolutely won't AND we know it, but don't have the courage or honesty to admit it"

Most commentators and politicos know the date is not cast in stone , it’s an aspiration , and  no doubt individual countries will evaluate as the date approaches ( as will the EU) if excemptions are needed.

What’s clear is that categories where BEV substitutes exist will be subject to the ban and furthermore excemptions will be granted to specific categories where a Bev substitute is not readily available , the current thinking is freight , heavy equipment and certain business categories.

However the personal car ban will remain in one form or another

[eti]

In the 2022 report, the only thing I can see relevant is that they believe EV's may not replace ICE by 2030 worldwide,  they don't make any predictions about 2050.  They are less optimistic than 2021 (possibly due to continuing semiconductor headaches.)  Though they still believe cost parity for EV's will be met by 2030 - as observed in UK/EU cost parity has already been reached in some sectors like luxury/SUV and in other sectors it is approaching parity like in small cars.

This is just a survey of executives too, they would be quite happy to sell ICE vehicles as it's something they know well, EV's represent a risk that they would rather not take on.

Edit: Looks like Marco beat me to it

"May not", in bullshit-free, plain speaking world, = "Absolutely won't AND we know it, but don't have the courage or honesty to admit it"

Most commentators and politicos know the date is not cast in stone , it’s an aspiration , and  no doubt individual countries will evaluate as the date approaches ( as will the EU) if excemptions are needed.

What’s clear is that categories where BEV substitutes exist will be subject to the ban and furthermore excemptions will be granted to specific categories where a Bev substitute is not readily available , the current thinking is freight , heavy equipment and certain business categories.

However the personal car ban will remain in one form or another

I may "aspire" to fly to Pluto on a paper aeroplane... but it won't ever happen. This EV stuff en masse, won't ever happen. No need for "rebuttals" or other such, just allow time to unfold, wait and see.

[tom66]

There's video all over the Internet re: the new (concept) Dodge Charger.  Nine different performance brackets (priced accordingly) and the max is 1100 HP and estimated to cost $115k plus options (there are always options).  It even has 4 task modes:  Drive, Drift, Drag and Donut.  This thing should be a kick in the ass to drive.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/08/18/dodge-charger-daytona-ev-electric-muscle-car-fj-orig.cnn-business

There are several other videos re: the probable 2024 release.

Talk about 'conspicuous consumption' of kWh...

My wife just said there will be no tapping of the 401(k) to buy a hotrod - she has no sense of adventure...

It's notable that Ferrari has finally admitted they will make an EV.  They say that almost half of their sales by 2030 will be electric too, that's a complete turnaround from their prior stance of "electric has no future".

The fastest accelerating vehicles out there are going to be EVs simply because it is easier to build an EV powertrain for peak power, it uses less weight and volume, and packaging batteries is less of a challenge than it once was with pouch and prismatic cells. With EV there is no disadvantage from a gearbox or power banding giving continuous high power but at the same time these vehicles can be unreasonably efficient. Hence why you see an 1100hp monster but it probably still achieves at least 2.5 miles per kWh.  What's the fuel economy of the 6.2L V8 in the Hellcat... about 12 mpg(US) city/21 mpg highway, so probably 15 mpg real world average. 

Top speed and track vehicles will be ICE for some time; Formula 1 will remain ICE with hybrid function because it's just not possible to hit the power-weight-endurance metrics with electric just yet.  Hydrogen might actually work quite well here, though they'd probably have to use even higher than 700 bar pressure to get the density into the vehicle.