Author Topic: EV-based road transportation is not viable  (Read 73562 times)

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Offline nctnico

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #475 on: January 26, 2023, 10:23:03 pm »
There are a large number of EV manufacturers from China breaking through into the UK/EU market.

he competition in the EV space will be fierce from China and Japan could very well lose their vehicular dominance if they fail to keep up with the competition.  The lack of development from TNissan, still using the same outdated passively cooled battery packs that deteriorate almost as fast as a lettuce, and Toyota and Honda is rather telling.   Of course, they're betting on hydrogen and ICE, but it's a very brave bet given where things look to be going.
You keep going around in circles with this. But the annual KPMG reports are pretty clear and Toyota + Nissan not being in a hurry to switch over the massive EV production, should tell you the future isn't set in stone yet AND very likely different from what you expect. The error in your reasoning is that you are extrapolating from the growth rate for something that is still in it's infancy stage. Toyota OTOH is playing the long game here. They are steering the company towards products they can sell in the future.

Just look at Europe. The number of electric cars is below 1% of all cars and at some point sales will level off because a BEV doesn't make sense to buy for the majority of people.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline tom66

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #476 on: January 26, 2023, 10:35:24 pm »
You keep going around in circles with this. But the annual KPMG reports are pretty clear and Toyota + Nissan not being in a hurry to switch over the massive EV production, should tell you the future isn't set in stone yet AND very likely different from what you expect. The error in your reasoning is that you are extrapolating from the growth rate for something that is still in it's infancy stage. Toyota OTOH is playing the long game here. They are steering the company towards products they can sell in the future.

My argument is simple, these manufacturers are missing the boat.  The Japanese are very conservative, and it practically took a revolt on the Toyota board to get Toyota to even consider making an EV.  (It sucks, by the way.  But at least they're trying.)  And Nissan only developed an EV because Renault pushed them to explore the technology and Ghosn was a pretty shrewd businessman.  You could equally look at the US and European manufacturers and see how they are getting into EVs significantly now.  5 years ago the idea of Ford making anything other than a converted ICE (Focus EV) was laughable and now they've electrified their top seller, F-150, and it's selling like mad.  3 years ago BMW's answer to EV's was the i3, now they have a full range.

Just look at Europe. The number of electric cars is below 1% of all cars and at some point sales will level off because a BEV doesn't make sense to buy for the majority of people.

Exponentials are a bit like that.  I'd argue we're at the same situation Microsoft/Nokia/RIM were in, back in 2008.  Cars last a lot longer than phones but also have longer development cycles, so if Toyota don't have a Corolla, Camry and Auris answer to the EV question soon enough they're going to become really stuck soon, and they're going to lose market share to the Chinese manufacturers who can offer competitive cost, quality and performance.

I've sat in an MG4 EV and driven it.  It's genuinely impressive how far these manufacturers have come.  The vehicle drives as sharp as my Golf, is quiet on the road, and has a quality interior with decent plastics and comfortable seats.  Under the 'hood' the electronics and power components are laid out like any professional automotive production (unlike Tesla, there is no Home Depot trim).  And they offer a 7 year warranty that covers practically everything on the car.  They're coming for Toyota's lunch.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #477 on: January 26, 2023, 11:18:43 pm »
It will just push all ICE vehicles to that category.

They will be competing with all the other legacy users for bio/synth fuel, with synth fuel production cost setting the price. Not enough arable land in the world to do it with biofuel alone, the legacy market will be too f'ing huge. Only synthetic with air captured CO2 scales at net zero.

You will be able to take your old timer out of the garage and go to the pump for some synth fuel, but you will have running costs of a couple multiples. Which is not really a problem for an old timer, since it's just a luxury/hobby. Hell old timer motor bikes will be usable as an every day vehicle even for people who have to be careful with their money, given the negligible fuel consumption.

If it's a diesel you could sneak in some food grade vegetable oil, the tax regime will likely keep that cheap (by forcing the unsustainable/unscaleable biofuel producers off the market).
 

Offline tszaboo

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #478 on: January 26, 2023, 11:33:18 pm »
There are a large number of EV manufacturers from China breaking through into the UK/EU market.

he competition in the EV space will be fierce from China and Japan could very well lose their vehicular dominance if they fail to keep up with the competition.  The lack of development from TNissan, still using the same outdated passively cooled battery packs that deteriorate almost as fast as a lettuce, and Toyota and Honda is rather telling.   Of course, they're betting on hydrogen and ICE, but it's a very brave bet given where things look to be going.
You keep going around in circles with this. But the annual KPMG reports are pretty clear and Toyota + Nissan not being in a hurry to switch over the massive EV production, should tell you the future isn't set in stone yet AND very likely different from what you expect. The error in your reasoning is that you are extrapolating from the growth rate for something that is still in it's infancy stage. Toyota OTOH is playing the long game here. They are steering the company towards products they can sell in the future.

Just look at Europe. The number of electric cars is below 1% of all cars and at some point sales will level off because a BEV doesn't make sense to buy for the majority of people.
Toyota actually made a 180. New CEO. News for today.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #479 on: January 26, 2023, 11:41:38 pm »
There are a large number of EV manufacturers from China breaking through into the UK/EU market.

he competition in the EV space will be fierce from China and Japan could very well lose their vehicular dominance if they fail to keep up with the competition.  The lack of development from TNissan, still using the same outdated passively cooled battery packs that deteriorate almost as fast as a lettuce, and Toyota and Honda is rather telling.   Of course, they're betting on hydrogen and ICE, but it's a very brave bet given where things look to be going.
You keep going around in circles with this. But the annual KPMG reports are pretty clear and Toyota + Nissan not being in a hurry to switch over the massive EV production, should tell you the future isn't set in stone yet AND very likely different from what you expect. The error in your reasoning is that you are extrapolating from the growth rate for something that is still in it's infancy stage. Toyota OTOH is playing the long game here. They are steering the company towards products they can sell in the future.

Just look at Europe. The number of electric cars is below 1% of all cars and at some point sales will level off because a BEV doesn't make sense to buy for the majority of people.
Toyota actually made a 180. New CEO. News for today.
I can't find any reference that Toyota is shifting their strategy. Just a new CEO which could happen for any number of reasons.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline eti

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #480 on: January 27, 2023, 01:40:18 am »
This topic is just the kind of comedy PLATINUM we need in these often dark times. Keep it coming, it's great for a chortle, imagining that we are all gonna be plugging in our oversized toy cars and trundling around in some imaginary "Eco" Utopia  ;D ;D

The fact that SO MANY people have bought into this, just shows that even the brightest minds can be utterly fooled by subtle, slowly-creeping marketing brainwashing and political agenda "Eco" BOLLOCKS.
 

Offline eti

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #481 on: January 27, 2023, 01:43:45 am »
There are a large number of EV manufacturers from China breaking through into the UK/EU market.

he competition in the EV space will be fierce from China and Japan could very well lose their vehicular dominance if they fail to keep up with the competition.  The lack of development from TNissan, still using the same outdated passively cooled battery packs that deteriorate almost as fast as a lettuce, and Toyota and Honda is rather telling.   Of course, they're betting on hydrogen and ICE, but it's a very brave bet given where things look to be going.
You keep going around in circles with this. But the annual KPMG reports are pretty clear and Toyota + Nissan not being in a hurry to switch over the massive EV production, should tell you the future isn't set in stone yet AND very likely different from what you expect. The error in your reasoning is that you are extrapolating from the growth rate for something that is still in it's infancy stage. Toyota OTOH is playing the long game here. They are steering the company towards products they can sell in the future.

Just look at Europe. The number of electric cars is below 1% of all cars and at some point sales will level off because a BEV doesn't make sense to buy for the majority of people.

Believing "reports" as a gold standard is pretty amusing, and shows great gullibility in a person. You maybe understand that "reports" are paid to be written, and heavily biased toward the agenda of the one paying.  ;)
 

Online rstofer

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #482 on: January 27, 2023, 02:35:29 am »

Top speed and track vehicles will be ICE for some time; Formula 1 will remain ICE with hybrid function because it's just not possible to hit the power-weight-endurance metrics with electric just yet.  Hydrogen might actually work quite well here, though they'd probably have to use even higher than 700 bar pressure to get the density into the vehicle.
Formula E exists but the cars are rather slow compared to Formula I.

NASCAR is looking at EVs.  Currently ICE cars are limited to 670 HP and the EVs will be limited to something north of 1000 HP.  If they can get the car to stay on the track it should be fun (and quiet) to watch.  Seeing that much steel not making noise ought to be interesting.

NASCAR will also use 3 electric motors.  I wonder if the rear axel gets one and each of the front wheels gets another.  Then I wonder if the electronics package helps with steering by individually controlling the front motors.


« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 02:50:11 am by rstofer »
 

Online NiHaoMike

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #483 on: January 27, 2023, 02:39:35 am »
They will be competing with all the other legacy users for bio/synth fuel, with synth fuel production cost setting the price. Not enough arable land in the world to do it with biofuel alone, the legacy market will be too f'ing huge. Only synthetic with air captured CO2 scales at net zero.
Or biofuel from ocean algae, 3x as much ocean area as land area. That said, just making use of otherwise unused/underused land is an easier place to start.
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Offline Marco

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #484 on: January 27, 2023, 04:10:15 am »
Or biofuel from ocean algae, 3x as much ocean area as land area.
Nutrient density sucks though and it's not easily fertilized.
Quote
That said, just making use of otherwise unused/underused land is an easier place to start.
You'd be likely damaging biodiversity unless you're putting closed bioreactors in the desert, but bioreactors are expensive.

There will be some profitable niches, but ultimately you need scalable solutions. It's not enough to start, you have to finish ... and at the finish the scalable solutions will set the price.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #485 on: January 27, 2023, 04:21:29 am »
Formula E exists but the cars are rather slow compared to Formula I.

The hydrogen industry should sponsor a LH2+Fuel cell Formula class (and a LeMans team). Fuel Cells with power density near high performance engines have been demonstrated.

Toyata and Glickenhaus are planning liquid hydrogen ICE endurance racers already, but I'd prefer fuel cells ... though I think the politics of racing isn't ready for an electrical class which outperforms Formula 1 on every metric.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 04:23:42 am by Marco »
 

Online CatalinaWOW

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #486 on: January 27, 2023, 04:26:16 am »
F1 has never been about best performance.  Rules have been adjusted several times to keep all teams somewhat competitive.
 
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Offline Marco

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #487 on: January 27, 2023, 04:35:09 am »
F1 has never been about best performance.  Rules have been adjusted several times to keep all teams somewhat competitive.

But it is supposed to be the number 1 Formula class in performance and prestige, a LH2+Fuel cell class with high end engineering and not artificially crippled would endanger it's perceived performance crown and with it its prestige.

On the other hand that's why it presents a big chance for the hydrogen industry, it has great symbolic value.
 

Online NiHaoMike

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #488 on: January 27, 2023, 04:52:02 am »
You'd be likely damaging biodiversity unless you're putting closed bioreactors in the desert, but bioreactors are expensive.
I was thinking of making good use of front and back yards and the like.
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Offline MadScientist

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #489 on: January 27, 2023, 07:07:41 am »
In the 2022 report, the only thing I can see relevant is that they believe EV's may not replace ICE by 2030 worldwide,  they don't make any predictions about 2050.  They are less optimistic than 2021 (possibly due to continuing semiconductor headaches.)  Though they still believe cost parity for EV's will be met by 2030 - as observed in UK/EU cost parity has already been reached in some sectors like luxury/SUV and in other sectors it is approaching parity like in small cars.

This is just a survey of executives too, they would be quite happy to sell ICE vehicles as it's something they know well, EV's represent a risk that they would rather not take on.

Edit: Looks like Marco beat me to it :)

"May not", in bullshit-free, plain speaking world, = "Absolutely won't AND we know it, but don't have the courage or honesty to admit it"

Most commentators and politicos know the date is not cast in stone , it’s an aspiration , and  no doubt individual countries will evaluate as the date approaches ( as will the EU) if excemptions are needed.

What’s clear is that categories where BEV substitutes exist will be subject to the ban and furthermore excemptions will be granted to specific categories where a Bev substitute is not readily available , the current thinking is freight , heavy equipment and certain business categories.

However the personal car ban will remain in one form or another

I may "aspire" to fly to Pluto on a paper aeroplane... but it won't ever happen. This EV stuff en masse, won't ever happen. No need for "rebuttals" or other such, just allow time to unfold, wait and see.

So I see in your part of the word canals carry coal and steam locomotives haul passagners !!!  For a technical forum there sure are a lot of Luddite’s around here.

Drive a modern BEV. it’s a better car all round then it’s ice counterpart that’s the key to Bev success.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 07:09:15 am by MadScientist »
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Offline bookaboo

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #490 on: January 27, 2023, 08:02:10 am »
I don't see why the debate is framed in terms of "everyone will have EV cars" or "no one will have EV cars". People for whom an EV is not a good fit seem to be adamant that it is therefore a fit for no one. 

I did the math on an EV purchase for my circumstances (lifestyle, taxes etc), it pays for itself over the time I plan to keep it and I got a lot more car than I would have buying ICE.
Would I have bought it if the math didn't work out? No*
Does the math work the same for everyone else? No.
It's pretty simple cost/benefit analysis, 30 mins with a spreadsheet and an objective mind makes the decision easy either way.


*Though I would now factor in that EVs are a vastly superior experience, I'd hate to go back, but if the math said so, I would.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 08:05:57 am by bookaboo »
 
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Offline MadScientist

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #491 on: January 27, 2023, 09:01:19 am »
My reasons for not wanting an electric car are that they are simply too powerful. I'm perfectly happy at around the 200 hp-220 hp ballpark. If I were to get a car with even just a small amount more I would hate it because it would make me feel nervous about driving it. As it is now my current car is producing less than 200hp, at 183 hp, and that is brand new specs.

I learned driving a car with no more than 140 hp at 3750rpm when new, it definitley had less than that when I was driving it. It was perfectly adequate because it also had 316nm of torque at 2400 rpm. It was also lighter than modern cars. I don't understand why people today need these high powered cars it just makes the road conditions more unsafe and gives you less time to react.

What I'm mainly interested in is low down torque and towing capacity and fuel economy.

There is no car currently on the market and there won't be one for quite a while IF EVER that is mainly focused on low cost and low power outputs with high torque outputs for additional towing capacity and is a wagon or utility.

My requirements are that it also be low to the ground, because I have to get my mum in and out of the car as she is an invalid, but the electric cars that come close to my requirements are far too overpowered and too high off the ground. So because of this requirement the only options out there are a Toyota Camry but even then they aren't a wagon and they aren't exactly known for their towing prowess and Toyota don't make a camry thats all electric. And the Camry is front wheel drive. And manufacturers usually go all out when putting power to the ground in new electric cars.

With respect your summary of current BEV options is way off. Most current small BEVs are low power fro to wheel drive   It’s only the higher end is high power 4WD. Look at offerings from Hyundai , Peugeot, Kia , Nissan , sine of the vW ID range etc. these are fairly “ straightforward “ cars   , some are tow rated now also

Tow rated BEVs are quite new but more are coming , in fact no doubt we’ll see more tow rated BEVs in the future but right now  it’s a compromise

But things like the Kia or Hyundai or a new Nissan leaf would easily meet your requirements , ( sill height etc ) try a test drive or two to get a feel !
« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 09:05:01 am by MadScientist »
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Offline MadScientist

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #492 on: January 27, 2023, 09:06:43 am »
For a technical forum there sure are a lot of Luddite’s around here.

We're not stupid. Not everything brand new is good or safe or wise.

The Atom bomb for example.

Equally “ old “ stuff isn’t great either , a argument on technical merits is fine , nonsense about conspiracy and climate denier stuff just makes for nonsense debates

My experience is people who don’t own a Bev or haven’t driven one  tend to have all sorts  of “ perceived” negatives that prove false once they start to use a Bev or get familiar with them. Range anxiety is usually the first thing to get dropped . These “ perceived negatives “tend to hypothetical negatives not based on how actually they use their cars or how they change their motoring habits when they change to BEVS
« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 09:14:21 am by MadScientist »
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Offline eti

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #493 on: January 27, 2023, 09:16:16 am »
I’m just sitting here, laughing at how supposedly intelligent people are so gullible
 

Offline MadScientist

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #494 on: January 27, 2023, 09:22:18 am »
I’m just sitting here, laughing at how supposedly intelligent people are so gullible

Or entrenched viewpoints held by the ill-informed    Who seem to read largely conspiracy websites nonsense |O
« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 09:23:49 am by MadScientist »
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Offline eti

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #495 on: January 27, 2023, 09:57:20 am »
I’m just sitting here, laughing at how supposedly intelligent people are so gullible

Or entrenched viewpoints held by the ill-informed    Who seem to read largely conspiracy websites nonsense |O

How is facing up the hard realities which the early adopters avoid at all costs or “forget” to mention, any form of “conspiracy”?

You loonies.
 

Offline MadScientist

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #496 on: January 27, 2023, 10:12:59 am »
What “ hard “‘realities , just stick to technical ones. Politics isvt discussed rationally here
« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 10:15:02 am by MadScientist »
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Offline tom66

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #497 on: January 27, 2023, 10:16:06 am »
My reasons for not wanting an electric car are that they are simply too powerful. I'm perfectly happy at around the 200 hp-220 hp ballpark. If I were to get a car with even just a small amount more I would hate it because it would make me feel nervous about driving it. As it is now my current car is producing less than 200hp, at 183 hp, and that is brand new specs.

First, most EVs are probably more in the 150-300hp range than the 300+ hp range.  But also, perhaps unlike an ICE, the accelerator pedal is quite different on an EV.  It is not controlling throttle position but torque request.  So if you want less power you press it less and there's really no chance of it accelerating faster than you expect.  Some cars have an 'eco' mode which limits power to <50% as well.  (Tesla 'chill' mode for instance is like driving a small 1.4L city car,  I think the 0-60 time is about 10 seconds.)

I learned driving a car with no more than 140 hp at 3750rpm when new, it definitley had less than that when I was driving it. It was perfectly adequate because it also had 316nm of torque at 2400 rpm. It was also lighter than modern cars. I don't understand why people today need these high powered cars it just makes the road conditions more unsafe and gives you less time to react.

Like having good brakes is important, having extra acceleration can be a safety feature. For instance, if you have to emerge from the emergency bay on a highway into fast moving traffic, if your car can get up to speed quickly, you will pose less of a hazard to other traffic.  A lot of roads in the UK also have very short slip roads onto 70 mph dual carriageways, these can be very difficult to merge out unless you get lucky and there is a very long gap.  Finally, things like passing tractors or other slow moving vehicles on single carriageway roads, you want to get from 20 to 60 reasonably quickly, so that you are in the oncoming lane for as little time as possible.

What I'm mainly interested in is low down torque and towing capacity and fuel economy.

There is no car currently on the market and there won't be one for quite a while IF EVER that is mainly focused on low cost and low power outputs with high torque outputs for additional towing capacity and is a wagon or utility.

ISTR the electric F-150 is offered still with low range gearbox, but yes we will probably need more cars here before they're competitive with the ICE versions.  There's no reason a manufacturer couldn't stick a low range gearbox on the output of a standard EV motor.

My requirements are that it also be low to the ground, because I have to get my mum in and out of the car as she is an invalid, but the electric cars that come close to my requirements are far too overpowered and too high off the ground. So because of this requirement the only options out there are a Toyota Camry but even then they aren't a wagon and they aren't exactly known for their towing prowess and Toyota don't make a camry thats all electric. And the Camry is front wheel drive. And manufacturers usually go all out when putting power to the ground in new electric cars.

A lot of EVs ride no higher than regular cars, but also a lot of EVs are SUVs.  So what you want is more like a station wagon EV?  The only ones I can think of are the Audi e-tron sportback, and the MG5 EV.  The MG5 is pretty cheap (for a new car),  the Audi is not.
 

Offline eti

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #498 on: January 27, 2023, 10:26:20 am »
What “ hard “‘realities , just stick to technical ones. Politics isvt discussed rationally here

Who mentioned politics? 🤨
 

Offline MadScientist

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #499 on: January 27, 2023, 10:27:55 am »
What “ hard “‘realities , just stick to technical ones. Politics isvt discussed rationally here

Who mentioned politics? 🤨

All the climate politics BS and running down govs etc. it’s a BS argument distraction

Today in many countries the vast typical usages of private car transport can be delivered with BEVs and are being done so in many countries often at cheaper running costs to boot.

With incentives BEVs are cheaper to buy , cheaper to run, tax and insure. No pollution at point of  use , There’s little to find wrong in practice
« Last Edit: January 27, 2023, 10:30:52 am by MadScientist »
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