EV-based road transportation is not viable

[vad]

I hate having gasoline stored in my garage, so I have always used electric mowers.

I hated charging mover’s 56V lithium ion battery packs unattendedly in my garage, due to fire danger.

Petrol in the garage, whether it is in car’s petrol tank or in a canister, is safer.

[tom66]

It's mostly just a game of chicken with an industry too big to fail, with no one wanted to leave profit on the table if government blinks. If they are all convinced government won't blink, they'll get it done.

So far I'd say the European car manufacturers seem to be convinced it is happening.  If even Ferrari are saying ~50% of their sales will be electric by 2030 then they are clearly seeing the tide change.  The question will be, will they achieve this whilst maintaining similar accessibility to EVs.  The gradual drop in the price of EVs is clearly there but we need a lot more 20k Euro EV's and less 50k Euro EVs. 

[tom66]

I hated charging mover’s 56V lithium ion battery packs unattendedly in my garage, due to fire danger.

Petrol in the garage, whether it is in car’s petrol tank or in a canister, is safer.

 

You have no comprehension of the risk of lithium ion batteries pose.  Well designed batteries don't burn down, except in exceedingly rare scenarios.  There are extremely strict standards over the design of these battery packs, with a BMS, cell balancer, and temperature sensors being required.  Meanwhile, you could easily knock the can of petrol over, or spill it while filling your mower, or have an arcing electrical connection nearby that ignites fuel vapours.  In an ICE car, there are so many more risks, like leaking fuel piping, leaking oil, and mechanical failure.

[tautech]

Many tractors spend a lot of time idle on farms.

You clearly spend too much time shining a chair in an aircon office. 

[MadScientist]

Many tractors spend a lot of time idle on farms.

You clearly spend too much time shining a chair in an aircon office. 

Given I spent a huge part of my life on farms. What would I know …..

[MadScientist]

It's mostly just a game of chicken with an industry too big to fail, with no one wanted to leave profit on the table if government blinks. If they are all convinced government won't blink, they'll get it done.

So far I'd say the European car manufacturers seem to be convinced it is happening.  If even Ferrari are saying ~50% of their sales will be electric by 2030 then they are clearly seeing the tide change.  The question will be, will they achieve this whilst maintaining similar accessibility to EVs.  The gradual drop in the price of EVs is clearly there but we need a lot more 20k Euro EV's and less 50k Euro EVs.

I think we can confidently say the European car industry sees BEVs as the future and are taking strategic manufacturing decisions today that will end ICE production relatively soon for ordinary private car transport.

European governments are largely in lockstep and hence the political will remains strong ( by and large ) and successful countries will tend to offer a road map for the laggards

I do think we shall see  a larger price range as small euro compacts convert over to BEV

The other thing is mass produced BEVs are cheaper to make then mass produced ICE of similar size , so as Bev volume ramps we should see significant price competition and better BEV value.

[tautech]

Many tractors spend a lot of time idle on farms.

You clearly spend too much time shining a chair in an aircon office. 

Given I spent a huge part of my life on farms. What would I know …..

60 years and counting, what would I know ? 

[jonovid]

the age of lithium ion battery cells matter . the balancer circuit in a large battery pack, may not monitor individual cells but a subgroup or bank of cells.
this is ok when the cells are young , but with age and a loss of performance. high discharge and high rate of recharge add to the loss of individual cell balance in just one..
now your got a fire.

[tom66]

the age of lithium ion battery cells matter . the balancer circuit in a large battery pack, may not monitor individual cells but a subgroup or bank of cells.
this is ok when the cells are young , but with age and a loss of performance. high discharge and high rate of recharge add to the loss of individual cell balance in just one..
now your go a fire.

I can't think of any modern BMS that would not monitor individual series cell voltages.  Especially not in any EV battery, but even in a power tool battery this would be virtually unheard of (maybe very cheap knockoff brands.)

Parallel Li-Ion cells do not require balancing for each cell, if that is what you are stating.

[nctnico]

It's mostly just a game of chicken with an industry too big to fail, with no one wanted to leave profit on the table if government blinks. If they are all convinced government won't blink, they'll get it done.

So far I'd say the European car manufacturers seem to be convinced it is happening.  If even Ferrari are saying ~50% of their sales will be electric by 2030 then they are clearly seeing the tide change.

Like Ferrari is affordable... Ferrari's move has everything to do with meeting average CO2 emission limits as set by the EU.

IMHO you really need to check two things: the size of the group of people that can afford a BEV (including charging costs) and the people for who a BEV is practical. Just assuming everyone can / will switchover to BEV is an utterly wrong assumption. In the NL you can already see the growth of BEVs is starting to level off. In 2017 to 2019 the number of BEVs on the road doubled every year but after that the increase (in %) starts to slow down. Keep in mind that cars get exported as well so sales numbers don't paint the full picture.

[eti]

I hated charging mover’s 56V lithium ion battery packs unattendedly in my garage, due to fire danger.

Petrol in the garage, whether it is in car’s petrol tank or in a canister, is safer.

 

You have no comprehension of the risk of lithium ion batteries pose.  Well designed batteries don't burn down, except in exceedingly rare scenarios.  There are extremely strict standards over the design of these battery packs, with a BMS, cell balancer, and temperature sensors being required.  Meanwhile, you could easily knock the can of petrol over, or spill it while filling your mower, or have an arcing electrical connection nearby that ignites fuel vapours.  In an ICE car, there are so many more risks, like leaking fuel piping, leaking oil, and mechanical failure.

Sealed cans of petrol don't spontaneously ignite. Sealed Li-ion batteries have, can and DO.

[nctnico]

I hated charging mover’s 56V lithium ion battery packs unattendedly in my garage, due to fire danger.

Petrol in the garage, whether it is in car’s petrol tank or in a canister, is safer.

 

You have no comprehension of the risk of lithium ion batteries pose.  Well designed batteries don't burn down, except in exceedingly rare scenarios.  There are extremely strict standards over the design of these battery packs, with a BMS, cell balancer, and temperature sensors being required.  Meanwhile, you could easily knock the can of petrol over, or spill it while filling your mower, or have an arcing electrical connection nearby that ignites fuel vapours.  In an ICE car, there are so many more risks, like leaking fuel piping, leaking oil, and mechanical failure.

Nonsense. Data from insurance companies shows that the fire risk between ICE and BEV is similar. Only problem is that putting out a BEV needs a lot more water. 11000 liters versus 2000 liters for an ICE. A Norwegian ferry company is banning any electric vehicle on board of their ships because they can't deal with an electric car on fire.

[themadhippy]

A Norwegian ferry company is banning any electric vehicle on board of their ships because they can't deal with an electric car on fire

But electric ferrys are ok

[Marco]

A cruise ship for tourists which for the moment can afford to be picky.

Normal ferries in Norway wouldn't be able to get away with it, politically and probably not even economically. They'll just have to deal with it, might want to buy some under-car spraying solutions and EV fire blankets.

[RJSV]

Related to what was just mentioned, generally about LITHIUM BATTs;. (and sorry about a little topic drift),
   In high rise buildings the management has to be careful, often strict fire safety rules:
Any concerns happening related to presence of lithium battery systems, kept by building tenants ?  Because that tells (us) what others think / feel, about general safe batteries, or not.

[Marco]

The fire doesn't evaporate that much water, you can just recycle the sprinkler water from the floor drains.

[tom66]

Like Ferrari is affordable... Ferrari's move has everything to do with meeting average CO2 emission limits as set by the EU.

IMHO you really need to check two things: the size of the group of people that can afford a BEV (including charging costs) and the people for who a BEV is practical. Just assuming everyone can / will switchover to BEV is an utterly wrong assumption. In the NL you can already see the growth of BEVs is starting to level off. In 2017 to 2019 the number of BEVs on the road doubled every year but after that the increase (in %) starts to slow down. Keep in mind that cars get exported as well so sales numbers don't paint the full picture.

Well done for missing the point, it's not about Ferrari, but if such a manufacturer is seeing the market for their high-performance sportscars go away from being exclusively ICE then that is an interesting shift. They could have said 50% would be hydrogen but they didn't, they said electric.  That would hit the CO2 goals, too.  (To be entirely honest, they have said they are 'considering' fuel-cell technology, but they haven't made any commitments or statements beyond that.)

Sales levelling off?  COVID did affect supply chains, but despite this, 19.8% of vehicle sales in NL in 2021 were EVs, and EV sales in Europe doubled.  For the Netherlands sales figures, they are only behind Norway.  What data are you looking at?
https://www.jato.com/in-2021-battery-electric-vehicles-made-up-one-in-ten-new-cars-registered-in-europe/

You can't really look at quarterly data as there is a lot of noise in that data.

As I've argued repeatedly, EV's are best for people who can charge at home right now or live near existing good street infrastructure/work charging.  EV's are still cheaper to run than ICE at normal AC charging prices and maintenance costs are expected to be lower.  About 50% of all road users in the UK have regular access to a driveway so those guys should be easier to convince.  As demand for street infrastructure increases, it will be built to accommodate more street parked and charged EVs, just look at London, the vast majority of that infrastructure is privately funded.

[MadScientist]

Agreed. Future BEV charging will be split across all charging modalities , home, street and fast charging infrastructure , no one node will be the defining one.

What’s clear based on sakes and manufacturing strategy is the immediate future is BEV based.

[tggzzz]

Then again I suppose retrofitting a large fire hydrant that uses an overboard water supply would help too.

Pumping water into a ship goes against normal maritime practice!

[tggzzz]

So basically you have a large water tank take up a car space or two beneath the ship. Pump water into it from a drain above. Pump the water back up to douse the car thats aflame.

There is already a large water tank beneath the ship. It has two benefits over bilge water: much larger than two cars, and the chemical composition is known.

[MadScientist]

 Nobody has leaf blowers around me and little cutting grass after sept and before march so it’s not an issue

[tom66]

Maybe a hatch below each car to allow immediate ejection of the firey EV into the sea.  May produce disappointing results for multi-deck ferries.

I guess the question is how common is such a fire?  ICE or EV?  I would imagine in any case, it is a disaster; and 4x the water to extinguish it sounds bad, but either way, when surrounded by other vehicles full of fuel, oil and possibly battery packs, a fire on a sea ferry is really bad whatever the technology.  So a better route might be containing the fire for as long as possible and getting back to port sharpish.

[MadScientist]

Maybe a hatch below each car to allow immediate ejection of the firey EV into the sea.  May produce disappointing results for multi-deck ferries.

I guess the question is how common is such a fire?  ICE or EV?  I would imagine in any case, it is a disaster; and 4x the water to extinguish it sounds bad, but either way, when surrounded by other vehicles full of fuel, oil and possibly battery packs, a fire on a sea ferry is really bad whatever the technology.  So a better route might be containing the fire for as long as possible and getting back to port sharpish.

Large numbers of BEVs have been shipped without issue. It’s not a general problem and less so as more LIFEPO4 batteries are being used

[tggzzz]

Then again I suppose retrofitting a large fire hydrant that uses an overboard water supply would help too.

Pumping water into a ship goes against normal maritime practice!

Oh right because of the whole buyoancy thing.

And yet West Coast Coolers come in by the crate load.

What are you talking about?
What is your chain of reasoning? Refer to the basic physics of ships floating and the Plimsoll Line.

[tautech]

Nobody has leaf blowers around me and little cutting grass after sept and before march so it’s not an issue

Just as I thought, you live in some other reality.