EV-based road transportation is not viable

[Marco]

Once things are well established in the marketplace, they will only change if there is good reason for them to.

Necessity can be a very good reason. The EU for instance can act economically irrational by the viewpoint of some people here, but even with rather bad economic consequences it can still force the issue ... as long as a state doesn't fail outright, the market is powerless against it except through democratic means (which don't work so well at EU level).

The market is a soft force except in extrema, the state is a strong force except in extrema.

[nctnico]

Once things are well established in the marketplace, they will only change if there is good reason for them to.

Necessity can be a very good reason. The EU for instance can act economically irrational by the viewpoint of some people here, but even with rather bad economic consequences it can still force the issue ... as long as a state doesn't fail outright, the market is powerless against it except through democratic means (which don't work so well at EU level).

The market is a soft force except in extrema, the state is a strong force except in extrema.

Now you are assuming there is no lobbying going on. If you look at EU decission / law making, you can clearly see there is always a strong force coming from industry to oppose changes or weaken policies that are benificial to the economy and / or health. Good examples are the WLTP car fuel economy testing method (which is just as crappy as the NEDC test) and denying fishers to use a much better (more fuel efficient and lower impact) way of catching fish due to opposition from the industry itself.

[rstofer]

Bev are better cars than ice. Quieter

They maybe should  consider  a minimum noise level,especially for those with sight problems

Many EVs have a low speed noise maker to warn people in the vicinity of an EV moving.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_warning_sounds

[SiliconWizard]

When railways were introduced one person commented that they would be a failure as the human body was not designed to be transported at speeds in excess of a running horse !!

In the age that that was written there was no seatbelts nor any safety equipment to speak of so technically its true for the technical time period in which it was said.

Yes, but quoting stuff out of context to make a point is easy and can even make you look smart!

[tom66]

My response was to your statements - which you chose to snip. Do read, don't snip; that makes life easier for everybody.

Sigh, why do I even bother.  You always moan at me trimming quotation blocks.  You can just click the 'name' in a quote to see the prior context.  It makes the page cluttered if you don't do it, so I'm going to continue to do it.

PS - you were responding to to MadScientist regarding the accessibility and use cases of private cars; I can't see how you were responding to any of my statements, unless you just mean in general, in this thread.  You'd need to point out a particular one.  I've made a few.

So you are saying "those that don't have to pay get it for free". Well, duh; who would have think that.

What about those that do have to pay? I suppose it is acceptable that they are screwed again.

What which EVs can be modified for the disabilities - and which can't?

What? What does this have to do with anything?  Yes disabled people have a rough life and yes in the UK they often have to pay for their own adaptations. I would say that should change. 

As for EVs that can't be modified, the only difficulty I've heard of is wheelchair lifts. The location of the HV battery on some cars precludes their installation.  This is the case for Tesla Model Y at least, but certainly not all EVs.  For instance the Peugeot and Mercedes mini-electric-vans do have some wheelchair lift conversions. 

[tom66]

Now you are assuming there is no lobbying going on. If you look at EU decission / law making, you can clearly see there is always a strong force coming from industry to oppose changes or weaken policies that are benificial to the economy and / or health. Good examples are the WLTP car fuel economy testing method (which is just as crappy as the NEDC test) and denying fishers to use a much better (more fuel efficient and lower impact) way of catching fish due to opposition from the industry itself.

EU lobbying (particularly from the car manufacturers) is one major reason EVs and carbon taxation have taken so long to actually happen. 

I want to see an SUV ban next (with some exemptions for disabled people perhaps), but I know I'd be dreaming, it won't happen.

[tggzzz]

My response was to your statements - which you chose to snip. Do read, don't snip; that makes life easier for everybody.

Sigh, why do I even bother.  You always moan at me trimming quotation blocks.  You can just click the 'name' in a quote to see the prior context.  It makes the page cluttered if you don't do it, so I'm going to continue to do it.

See SiliconWizard's point to bigfoot22 in the message before yours. The point he makes about bigfoot can be applied to you too: "Yes, but quoting stuff out of context to make a point is easy and can even make you look smart! "

So you are saying "those that don't have to pay get it for free". Well, duh; who would have think that.

What about those that do have to pay? I suppose it is acceptable that they are screwed again.

What which EVs can be modified for the disabilities - and which can't?

What? What does this have to do with anything? 

And that demonstrates why your claim about "just clicking 'name'" is a load of rubbish.

Read what I was responding to. Go on. Try it.

Yes disabled people have a rough life and yes in the UK they often have to pay for their own adaptations. I would say that should change. 

As for EVs that can't be modified, the only difficulty I've heard of is wheelchair lifts. The location of the HV battery on some cars precludes their installation.  This is the case for Tesla Model Y at least, but certainly not all EVs.  For instance the Peugeot and Mercedes mini-electric-vans do have some wheelchair lift conversions.

Wheelchair/buggy lifts are a very common modification for the elderly; there is a whole minor industry satisfying the need.

Having seen what was necessary for my mother to continue living at home (cf a nursing home which she hated), I know how important buggy lifts are. I presume you are lucky enough never to have been compelled to see that.

[bdunham7]

I want to see an SUV ban next (with some exemptions for disabled people perhaps), but I know I'd be dreaming, it won't happen.

So I'm a bit old and creaky and I find my old SUV a bit easier to get in and out of.  And sometimes I haul things and it seats 5 comfortably occasionally when needed.  It is also much safer than average.  You would require me to apply to some government bureacracy for permission to replace it when it wears out?  And perhaps get rejected because I"m not disabled enough? 

[tggzzz]

I want to see an SUV ban next (with some exemptions for disabled people perhaps), but I know I'd be dreaming, it won't happen.

So I'm a bit old and creaky and I find my old SUV a bit easier to get in and out of.  And sometimes I haul things and it seats 5 comfortably occasionally when needed.  It is also much safer than average.  You would require me to apply to some government bureacracy for permission to replace it when it wears out?  And perhaps get rejected because I"m not disabled enough?

My (inherited) Toyota Yaris Verso has a neat trick: the rear seats disappear under the front seats, leaving a flat boot from bumper to front seat.

Very useful when moving fridges, rubbish - and my mother's buggy.

[TimFox]

I want to see an SUV ban next (with some exemptions for disabled people perhaps), but I know I'd be dreaming, it won't happen.

So I'm a bit old and creaky and I find my old SUV a bit easier to get in and out of.  And sometimes I haul things and it seats 5 comfortably occasionally when needed.  It is also much safer than average.  You would require me to apply to some government bureacracy for permission to replace it when it wears out?  And perhaps get rejected because I"m not disabled enough?

As Mark Twain wrote:  "It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races."
I know some older people who find it difficult to get into a SUV-based taxi due to the high step.
Others, including myself, find it difficult to get into the rear seat of most taxis due to the small door and my bad knees.
If I ruled the world and wrote the regulations to deal with things I find icky, I would start with urban use of over-sized pick-up trucks by non-farmers.

[tom66]

I do read every post in good detail.  If you communicate so unclearly as to be frequently misunderstood, maybe it is you that needs to explain their point more clearly, and not the fault of the reader for interpreting otherwise.  I'm not going to bother responding to that line of conversation any more unless you clarify because quite honestly I can't see what I'm misreading.

Wheelchair/buggy lifts are a very common modification for the elderly; there is a whole minor industry satisfying the need.

Having seen what was necessary for my mother to continue living at home (cf a nursing home which she hated), I know how important buggy lifts are. I presume you are lucky enough never to have been compelled to see that.

Right, and these people will just have to buy an EV which can be converted, of which there are plenty.  Like the electric minivans I mentioned, or pretty much any wheelchair lift that can fit atop the boot floor. The only reason I mention the Model Y is an acquaintance mulled converting theirs for a disabled family member and the company said it might be possible but they'd never done one before and they didn't know if they'd need to cut near the battery pack which could present headaches in terms of warranty and safety for the engineers.

As these cars become more common no doubt there will be more conversions available, and the coachbuilders will get more confident modifying them.  There's nothing inherent about these vehicles that precludes such modifications and in fact, many aspects that might better enable them, like a flat loading floor and a high-current DC-DC converter (typically 200A+) that can power bulky lift motors etc. without the need to run an engine.

With anti-EV people it's rather hilarious what arguments you'll construe against these vehicles; it's like a cognitive dissonance has taken you over.  See, I can see the obvious arguments, where range and charging could be a headache for some use cases and for which gradual improvement in both infrastructure and range/affordability of these cars will accommodate more use cases soon enough.  What I don't get is this insistence that these problems are somehow unsolvable, that they will never be solved and therefore we'll never see EVs en-masse.  It doesn't add up at all. 

[tautech]

I want to see an SUV ban next (with some exemptions for disabled people perhaps), but I know I'd be dreaming, it won't happen.

Just two words, fuck you !

For sure it will never happen as for many of us there has never been such a useful vehicle !

Long gone are the days of the 2.25L 4cyl Landrover and its legendary fuel consumption (NOT !) where today modern similarly capable SUV's have 1000km range, double as a minivan with 1.5m3 luggage capacity and provide the comfort and seating capacity of a passenger car......not all at the same time though.

BUT, if you've never owned or needed such versatility how would/could you know ?
You don't ! Period !
That's the big trouble with todays world, Aholes only good for shining chairs in highrise buildings thinking they know best and pushing stupid rules onto the real workers in society.   

[nctnico]

I want to see an SUV ban next (with some exemptions for disabled people perhaps), but I know I'd be dreaming, it won't happen.

Define SUV. There are actually very few extraordinarily large vehicles on the road (which I why you notice them as exceptions in the first place). Most cars that are called SUV are just regular cars with the suspension raised and made to look a bit more rectangular at the rear. Not very practical by any means (I call them 'Slow Use Vehicle). But a ban ain't gonna happen because it serves no purpose. Your Golf GTE likely is larger compared to most SUV styled cars.

[tom66]

So I'm a bit old and creaky and I find my old SUV a bit easier to get in and out of.  And sometimes I haul things and it seats 5 comfortably occasionally when needed.  It is also much safer than average.  You would require me to apply to some government bureacracy for permission to replace it when it wears out?  And perhaps get rejected because I"m not disabled enough?

Calling SUVs safer than average is a bit much.  They're only safer because cars are so much heavier now.  If similarly sized cars have a collision with each other, the overall safety is not much different to SUVs colliding.  But you feel obliged to buy an SUV because everyone else has one.  If you look at Europe, where car sizes are proportionally quite a lot smaller than the US, we have lower traffic fatality rates than North America.  (There are obviously confounding factors, but it shows that you don't need big vehicles to have safer roads.)  The other problem with SUVs is they're a lot more dangerous to pedestrians and cyclists in accidents. 

But my main objection to SUVs is that they take up a disproportionate amount of road space for the utility they provide, whilst also requiring a lot more energy to propel and producing more pollution.  Most people (based on surveys, mind, so you might know an exception or two) actually use less space in an SUV on average than other cars; their average occupancy is lower than a typical hatchback.  These vehicles are often sold on the basis of marketing around "Freedom" and "Adventure" but spend their time crawling through suburbia and urban areas.  At least in Europe, the SUV is a new invention, they've only been around for 20 years or so, yet have exploded in popularity in the last 10 years, becoming the 'must have', despite average family sizes falling (so it's not as if we have a lot of four-children families to fit inside these cars.)

I always enjoy the look in the IKEA car park of someone just having bought some large book-case trying to stuff it into the back of their SUV.  They might manage, and they usually look quite proud of themselves, but seriously: you paid another £5,000 for that monstrosity, so that you can save £12.99 on delivery from IKEA?  Ok, maybe they visit every week and have a family of 4 too... but probably not.

I know we'll never ban SUVs for good but I'd seriously like to see automakers discouraged from making more of them.  If we need bigger cars, we should be building more estate cars (better aero footprint and less weight) and giving people better access to rental vans and the like.

[tom66]

I want to see an SUV ban next (with some exemptions for disabled people perhaps), but I know I'd be dreaming, it won't happen.

Define SUV. There are actually very few extraordinarily large vehicles on the road. Most cars that are called SUV are just regular cars with the suspension raised and made to look a bit more rectangular at the rear. Not very practical by any means (I call them 'Slow Use Vehicle). But a ban ain't gonna happen because it serves no purpose.

To be clear, while I think cars like, say, the Nissan Juke or Vauxhall/Opel Mokka are ugly (looks only a mother could love and so on) they aren't a big problem.  They are clearly being bought by some people who like the looks, the market is what it is.

The problem is things like BMW X3-7, Audi Q5+, Land Rover (Evoque/Discovery) and so on.

Most of these cars still have 5 seats, like a hatchback or a mini-SUV like the Juke.  But while the Juke might weight 1300kg in its heaviest trim, the Evoque weighs over 2100kg.

[eti]

Time passes. It will continue to pass, and what comes to pass will come to pass, no matter HOW enthused you are. Physics will remain the same, practicality will remain the same. Insanity will continue to grow. Words are not actions - wishful thinking guarantees zero.

EVs will still remain a tiny minority niche, even in 2040. We humans love to over-estimate how "advanced" we think we are. WE AIN'T. This is all a stage set - a delusion in an echo chamber of equally delusional enthusiasts and fake "green" agenda pushers. You guys are all sucked in, it's actually quite pitiful to watch SO MANY and see how brainwashed they've all become.

It's A CAR - it MOVES YOU somewhere - that is ALL that is interesting or useful about it. This nonsense has been tried before, and failed then. All this horse shit about "New battery tech emerging"... yeah? So where is it? It's in la la land is where, the land of clouds and daydreams. Wake up.

Employ some PROPER critical thinking - set to it for a year or so, do some research, rest for a few days, come back to it. Stop with the confirmation bias searches (quitting forums that echo your own feelings would be a head start - the echo chamber) and one day you may just grasp how moronic it all is. Maybe...

[TimFox]

I would treat any prediction of the market share for different types of automobile twenty years out as unreliable, as the technology improves and costs change.
However, the automobile companies have economists in their marketing departments that spend a lot of money to direct their investment, and the current opinions there seem to point to increased EV sales.
A simple (dangerous) extrapolation of recent sales trends would indicate more than a niche market for EVs.
Typical article from the business press in US:  https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/13/ford-vs-gm-same-industry-two-increasingly-different-companies.html
The two companies differ on autonomous vehicles, but both are ramping up EVs, putting real money into their strategies.

[RJSV]

   Yeah, well, eti seems to have a good grasp, and well spoken summary of the situation. Quote from eti:
   "...insanity will continue to grow...".  It's a blizzard, man!
   
   Other writers respond with, (sigh) "You can walk that last mile to transit station".  Ok, thanks for the discrimination against, like a bunch of groups.  Even mentioning / hinting, that a person "could use some GYM time".  Sounds like fat-shaming and where's the justice in that.

   I say "Let's enforce that 2X daily walking requirement...against that wanna-be regulator."
   Don't forget to 'throw' your arms out, wildly, every couple seconds, as you plan our green future.
We can walk, yeah, advanced stuff there.

[NiHaoMike]

I really think plug in hybrids would become dominant for a long time. At some point, it no longer makes sense to keep adding battery capacity to cover the infrequent long trips.

[MadScientist]

I really think plug in hybrids would become dominant for a long time. At some point, it no longer makes sense to keep adding battery capacity to cover the infrequent long trips.

With Bev rsnge approaching 600 km and fast chargers abounding in many countries. Just how long do you intend a single journey  to be.    Most people don’t drive those distances without breaks and they can easily charge while having a coffees no need for phevs

[tggzzz]

I really think plug in hybrids would become dominant for a long time. At some point, it no longer makes sense to keep adding battery capacity to cover the infrequent long trips.

With Bev rsnge approaching 600 km and fast chargers abounding in many countries. Just how long do you intend a single journey  to be.    Most people don’t drive those distances without breaks and they can easily charge while having a coffees no need for phevs

What is the range reduction when driven (or stored) in cold weather?

What is the range reduction when laden?

What is the range reduction when going up hill and down dale? Or up mountains higher than the UK definition of mountains (2kft!).

If you say "none", then you are living in an advertisement.

If you can't give an answer, then say where answers can be found.

[MathWizard]

If it will takes hours to recharge a car's batteries, then they need to have quickly removable batteries. And instead of waiting for "your" battery to charge, you just drop off yours, and take a full one. And put a tracker on it so no one steals it or something. Otherwise, you can wait in line for 2-3hrs, then another 2-3 or whatever, to charge up.

[RJSV]

The term 'Soon enough' isn't reassurance, in practical terms, regarding infrastructure maturity.
   After the 1989 planet Neptune fly-by (Voyager), there were folks, actually stating that:
   "No worries...we'll be living on other planets, like Neptune, soon..."

Science and, uh, nonsense.  I want the professionals, when some large project, like a big bridge, gets built.  Not an agenda-driven dystopia.  Yeah, John Kerry's private jet DOES conflict with proposing bans.
I dumped my vehicle because could not afford basic maintainance.  ICE or EV wasn't the issue.
I didn't tell myself 'prices and costs will come down, soon enough.
Yeah, soon enough for others, it always turns out.

[Marco]

I wonder if LH2 takes off for trucking, if a fuel cell range extender would make sense as a rental. It doesn't need to deliver peak power, it can be relatively light weight.

You can even use SOFC, you can keep it warm with vacuum insulation just like you can keep the LH2 cold ... for a bit.

[tom66]

EV range:

http://abetterrouteplanner.com

Choose an EV, choose starting conditions (battery %), choose a start point and a destination, alter road conditions (headwind, temperature), and see how the range of the EV does and how often you would need to charge (if at all).

Nice thing about EVs is their efficiency is practically a linear function, so more weight or greater incline can be calculated for all EVs with minimal data points from one car.  I guess the same probably applies for ICE but there's the complication of gearing and engine efficiency at varying load.