Author Topic: EV-based road transportation is not viable  (Read 71660 times)

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Offline tszaboo

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #750 on: February 02, 2023, 10:30:30 am »
To be clear, while I think cars like, say, the Nissan Juke or Vauxhall/Opel Mokka are ugly (looks only a mother could love and so on) they aren't a big problem.  They are clearly being bought by some people who like the looks, the market is what it is.

The problem is things like BMW X3-7, Audi Q5+, Land Rover (Evoque/Discovery) and so on.

Most of these cars still have 5 seats, like a hatchback or a mini-SUV like the Juke.  But while the Juke might weight 1300kg in its heaviest trim, the Evoque weighs over 2100kg.
They were marketing the Juke and other cars like this for young people. All the ads were teenagers skateboarding with headphones. And who is buying these cars? 50-60+ year olds.
It's just a hatchback with extra 10cm on the bottom, costing an extra 5-10KEUR.
If we are talking about problematic SUVs, how about Volvo XC90 with 2900kg? American classification: mid size  >:(
 

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #751 on: February 02, 2023, 11:59:32 am »
I really think plug in hybrids would become dominant for a long time. At some point, it no longer makes sense to keep adding battery capacity to cover the infrequent long trips.

With Bev rsnge approaching 600 km and fast chargers abounding in many countries. Just how long do you intend a single journey  to be.    Most people don’t drive those distances without breaks and they can easily charge while having a coffees no need for phevs
I routinely drive 700km (8hrs) with just a stop for fuel or a pee in my approaching 30yr old SUV whereas a buddy that called by today in a comparable but much nicer and very modern Jeep V6 TDI can do 1200km on a tank.
Seriously tempted to get one and wave bye bye to Asian SUV's that don't seem to have as advanced ICE.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #752 on: February 02, 2023, 12:37:09 pm »
I really think plug in hybrids would become dominant for a long time. At some point, it no longer makes sense to keep adding battery capacity to cover the infrequent long trips.

With Bev rsnge approaching 600 km and fast chargers abounding in many countries. Just how long do you intend a single journey  to be.    Most people don’t drive those distances without breaks and they can easily charge while having a coffees no need for phevs
This remark is only made by people that have absolutely no clue about what it is actually like to drive long journeys with a car. How much coffee do you want to drink in a day? As someone with decades of experience driving long distances with a car, I can tell you that you will want to keep stops to a minimum and don't eat or drink along highways because everything there is overpriced & crap. On top of that, time is better spend getting at your hotel early, eat dinner at a good restaurant, go for a swim, take a walk through a beautyfull city center, go to sleep on time, etc, etc. Literally anything is better than waiting at a charging station.  :palm:
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 12:38:42 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Miyuki

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #753 on: February 02, 2023, 12:37:59 pm »
I really think plug in hybrids would become dominant for a long time. At some point, it no longer makes sense to keep adding battery capacity to cover the infrequent long trips.

With Bev rsnge approaching 600 km and fast chargers abounding in many countries. Just how long do you intend a single journey  to be.    Most people don’t drive those distances without breaks and they can easily charge while having a coffees no need for phevs
Range at reasonable highway speeds is just a fraction of this. Even things like Model S have about a 50-60% range at 120 kmh/75mph. And SUVs are way worse.
Forcing people to drive slowly increases accidents and aggressivity. This can be overcome with self-driving, it might come by 2030 but who knows.
200-300 km range is probably enough range for European distances. But still, city use makes way more sense.
For long trip diesel engine with over 40% efficiency is still the winner in all categories.
btw I have a city range in my gasoline ICE of about 400 km. And it doesn't have a small tank.

btw for that disabled transport topic. Here in Prague city provides transport for wheelchair users. It is heavily overbooked nowadays, so one needs to book its way half a year upfront. So not the most convenient, but it exists and is possible. 
 

Offline tom66

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #754 on: February 02, 2023, 12:48:31 pm »
I really think plug in hybrids would become dominant for a long time. At some point, it no longer makes sense to keep adding battery capacity to cover the infrequent long trips.

The problem is an engine for the twice-a-year 600km+ road trip is quite an expense and creates its own headaches.

BMW had it right with the i3 REx as the range extender took a 150km EV up to 300km.  But nowadays 150km EV range is nothing, standard is 400km and most models are doing 600km.   So you are addressing an ever smaller part of the range problem.

Also remember an engine used infrequently can suffer wear,  it needs to run or the oil will sludge,  and petrol goes off eventually.  So you've added a maintenance bill and petrol bill to a car that is mostly EV.

You also have packaging.  An ICE needs a gearbox, exhaust, and bigger cooling systems.  An EV needs one or more motors and inverters and its own cooling.  Looking at the packaging inside my PHEV's engine compartment, it's incredible that so much can be made to fit.  But it's only a 100hp motor and 150hp engine.  You'd probably want a bigger electric motor for longer range usage.  And that means a bigger inverter, bigger motor casing, more cooling, etc.  So it becomes a real squeeze to get that in.  Plus added weight and the vehicle has to have a larger engine compartment (see how 'snub nose' some EVs are now, which really helps their turning circle and aero profile.)

As EV battery prices fall per kWh the PHEV just stops making sense.

Edit: corrected stupid typo  :palm:
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 01:13:42 pm by tom66 »
 

Offline Miyuki

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #755 on: February 02, 2023, 01:07:58 pm »
...
As EV battery prices fall per kWh the PHEV just stops making sense.
We have one small problem here. It looks like battery prices already hit the bottom as demand goes up and pushes raw material prices.
Current cell prices are very near the input costs. And those going up.
It might be just a temporary glitch caused by the pandemic. But right now it does not look for a bright green battery future.
 

Offline tom66

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #756 on: February 02, 2023, 01:08:25 pm »
This remark is only made by people that have absolutely no clue about what it is actually like to drive long journeys with a car. How much coffee do you want to drink in a day? As someone with decades of experience driving long distances with a car, I can tell you that you will want to keep stops to a minimum and don't eat or drink along highways because everything there is overpriced & crap. On top of that, time is better spend getting at your hotel early, eat dinner at a good restaurant, go for a swim, take a walk through a beautyfull city center, go to sleep on time, etc, etc. Literally anything is better than waiting at a charging station.  :palm:

You clearly have better bladder range than me!  I generally stop every 2.5-3 hours on a long journey.  I might not get a coffee, but there are plenty of places by motorways here that aren't overpriced for coffee, charging, etc.  Stopping at the actual services is usually a mugs game, no matter what the country (though I will say the 1.50 EUR espresso I had on the Italian autostrada blew my mind compared to what £4.50 gets you here in a normal Starbucks, but that's another matter.)

A 10-15 minute stop every 3 hours is fine IMO.  But everyone's different.  Some EV's already achieve this e.g. Model 3 LR will do it.  Something like the ID.3 requires 25-30 mins per stop.

Once a journey is over 800-1000km then I start looking at the train or flights, a car for that long is hell.  Too much to concentrate on for 8 hours.  Maybe autonomous highway cruising will resolve that but we're not there yet.  ACC takes some of the workload off but certainly still have to be very attentive.

You still have neglected to consider while that extra 15-30 minutes stop every 3 hours is inconvenient for a long road trip, you would never need to stop for ordinary daily usage which is covered by home/street/work charging.  Not everyone can do that yet, but it will get there eventually.  If you need to stop every 2-3 weeks - 10-15 mins to get petrol and pay - then you would need to road trip a lot for rapid charging to be a net time sink.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 01:10:27 pm by tom66 »
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #757 on: February 02, 2023, 01:13:47 pm »
I really think plug in hybrids would become dominant for a long time. At some point, it no longer makes sense to keep adding battery capacity to cover the infrequent long trips.
I agree. At this moment there simply is no good replacement for ICE where it comes to range & refuel times.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #758 on: February 02, 2023, 02:00:10 pm »
This remark is only made by people that have absolutely no clue about what it is actually like to drive long journeys with a car. How much coffee do you want to drink in a day? As someone with decades of experience driving long distances with a car, I can tell you that you will want to keep stops to a minimum and don't eat or drink along highways because everything there is overpriced & crap. On top of that, time is better spend getting at your hotel early, eat dinner at a good restaurant, go for a swim, take a walk through a beautyfull city center, go to sleep on time, etc, etc. Literally anything is better than waiting at a charging station.  :palm:

You clearly have better bladder range than me!  I generally stop every 2.5-3 hours on a long journey.  I might not get a coffee, but there are plenty of places by motorways here that aren't overpriced for coffee, charging, etc.  Stopping at the actual services is usually a mugs game, no matter what the country (though I will say the 1.50 EUR espresso I had on the Italian autostrada blew my mind compared to what £4.50 gets you here in a normal Starbucks, but that's another matter.)

A 10-15 minute stop every 3 hours is fine IMO.  But everyone's different.  Some EV's already achieve this e.g. Model 3 LR will do it.  Something like the ID.3 requires 25-30 mins per stop.

Once a journey is over 800-1000km then I start looking at the train or flights, a car for that long is hell.  Too much to concentrate on for 8 hours.  Maybe autonomous highway cruising will resolve that but we're not there yet.  ACC takes some of the workload off but certainly still have to be very attentive.

You still have neglected to consider while that extra 15-30 minutes stop every 3 hours is inconvenient for a long road trip, you would never need to stop for ordinary daily usage which is covered by home/street/work charging.
That doesn't matter at all. Like most people, I buy a car to do long trips conveniently. In my case that is also the primary use of the car anyway. Cars get bought to suit 2% of the use cases. If you don't think that is true, then ask yourself why people buy cars with 4 seats to drive to work alone... IIRC you have a Golf GTE but drive that to work alone. Why didn't you get a Renault Twizzy?
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 03:38:47 pm by nctnico »
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Offline tggzzz

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #759 on: February 02, 2023, 02:23:21 pm »
btw for that disabled transport topic. Here in Prague city provides transport for wheelchair users. It is heavily overbooked nowadays, so one needs to book its way half a year upfront. So not the most convenient, but it exists and is possible.

So somewhat "suboptimal" for my normal use case for busses: getting to a hospital appointment in the centre of town :)
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Offline tggzzz

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #760 on: February 02, 2023, 02:25:28 pm »
... don't eat or drink along highways because everything there is overpriced & crap. On top of that, time is better spend getting at your hotel early, eat dinner at a good restaurant, go for a swim, take a walk through a beautyfull city center, go to sleep on time, etc, etc. Literally anything is better than waiting at a charging station.  :palm:

Exactly, in every respect.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
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Offline coppice

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #761 on: February 02, 2023, 03:19:08 pm »
With Bev rsnge approaching 600 km and fast chargers abounding in many countries.
Fast chargers seem to abound in a couple of countries. In most the lack of solid, reliable, properly maintained chargers on a high capacity mains feed is a big problem. How many fast chargers in your country actually give the power they claim, and how many are heavily throttled because the feed they are attached to is power limited? How many are actually working when you get there?
 

Offline tszaboo

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #762 on: February 02, 2023, 05:07:58 pm »
...
As EV battery prices fall per kWh the PHEV just stops making sense.
We have one small problem here. It looks like battery prices already hit the bottom as demand goes up and pushes raw material prices.
Current cell prices are very near the input costs. And those going up.
It might be just a temporary glitch caused by the pandemic. But right now it does not look for a bright green battery future.

Sure, current tech. Solid state will drive the price and size lower and it's a huge upgrade safety wise.
 
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Offline tom66

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #763 on: February 02, 2023, 06:03:52 pm »
That doesn't matter at all. Like most people, I buy a car to do long trips conveniently. In my case that is also the primary use of the car anyway. Cars get bought to suit 2% of the use cases. If you don't think that is true, then ask yourself why people buy cars with 4 seats to drive to work alone... IIRC you have a Golf GTE but drive that to work alone. Why didn't you get a Renault Twizzy?

Of course I don't deny this, that's the whole debate over SUVs... people buy the big SUV so twice a year they can go to the tip with a bootful of crap or once in a blue moon pick up their cousin and three children from the airport with seventeen bags of luggage.  But then the problem is it's difficult/expensive to hire cars on demand, in some cities services like Zipcar make this easy but it's far from universal.

A Twizy wouldn't have the range of my GTE (I have a 90 mile round trip commute and can't charge at the office yet) nor would it have the performance to drive on a motorway, but I have mulled getting something like a Leaf just for the commute.  In the end the performance of the GTE on the roads I drive is too nice to give up and I don't go to the office often enough to justify a 2nd car, so decided instead to wait until a pure EV is within my budget that meets my requirements.  I think that will happen before this summer.  I don't buy new cars, so have been watching used prices follow as the new models come off lease and supply chains improve. 

If you road trip weekly or monthly you would definitely find an "average EV" less convenient right now but that's definitely changing.  Take a look at the data by Bjorn Nyland on the 1000km challenge in Norway.  That is, how fast can you travel in EV vs ICE (he tested a PHEV). 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6ucyFGKWuSQzvI8lMzvvWJHrBS82echMVJH37kwgjE/edit#gid=15442336

So right now the high end of EVs matches the convenience of ICE and towards the lower end we are getting some competition, for instance EV6/Ioniq5 and VW ID5 are only 1hr slower in a 10hr trip.  It won't be long before similar models are competitive, it's really just down to charging performance, getting that fast charging curve up, which as tszaboo suggests is coming more with solid state batteries and other improvements.  It wasn't until 2016 or so that Tesla introduced battery pre-warming to get to the supercharging speeds seen now, and denser batteries are being fitted to average cars.  VW launched the e-Golf with 24kWh battery, then refreshed it with 35.5kWh, then the ID.3 (basically the successor to e-Golf) comes with 58kWh standard.  That's in 8 years of production, the battery capacity more than doubled.  I think batteries will level out around 60kWh for average vehicles, but more effort will be expended on getting them to charge faster.

So even if you feel EV isn't for you today I doubt you will be saying the same in 2025 - 2030.   Meanwhile where are all the hydrogen models to compete with EVs?   
 
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Offline MadScientist

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #764 on: February 02, 2023, 06:08:59 pm »
I think future battery tech will bear little relation to current battery tech no
No More  then a current ice is similar to a model T ford engine
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 06:19:08 pm by MadScientist »
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Offline MadScientist

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #765 on: February 02, 2023, 06:14:24 pm »
BEVs will offer as good or better transport experience over time. The negatives are largely illusional or in fact will disappear as habits change

Inventing drawbacks or negating Bev because it’s not an identical experience is really nonsensical. The  future will be different, car usage will be different too , things are  changing
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 06:17:46 pm by MadScientist »
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Offline eti

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #766 on: February 02, 2023, 07:04:41 pm »
BEVs will offer as good or better transport experience over time. The negatives are largely illusional or in fact will disappear as habits change

Inventing drawbacks or negating Bev because it’s not an identical experience is really nonsensical. The  future will be different, car usage will be different too , things are  changing

lol. Keep dreaming
 

Offline tom66

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #767 on: February 02, 2023, 07:06:58 pm »
I've got no problems with a moving/camping trailer that has a massive inbuilt battery bank. That would actually be quite useful on a camping trip for powering/cooking various devices and it should theoretically increase the travel range of a vehicle by at least another 600km, provided it is in good condition.

Future SUV/BEVs would require a charging port at the rear of the vehicle for trailers only, bidirectional. There would also need to be a second cable going to the front of the vehicle dedicated for the trailers power supply to be used by the engine soley and a way to charge both battery banks, trailer and vehicle, independently of each other.

Yeah, I do wonder if any of the "lifestyle camper" manufacturers have thought of this yet.  Traditional CCS does not allow charging if the vehicle is not in 'park' but that's a software limit rather than anything.  Would be "easy" to have 20-30kW coming from a trailer to top up the main vehicle battery easily compensating for the range loss from towing.  Needs the vehicle manufacturers to get on board with allowing the charge port to run while driving (when connected to the right equipment, Ionity might not be so pleased when you run off with their cable and pedestal because you forgot it was attached.)

It would make caravans etc. more expensive but then I've never quite appreciated why anyone in their right mind would spend ~30,000 EUR on a caravan and a more expensive SUV to tow that thing when you could easily buy numerous holidays abroad or a hotel stay with breakfast at your table, instead of a muddy field with a gas stove.   :-//
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 07:09:37 pm by tom66 »
 
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Online themadhippy

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #768 on: February 02, 2023, 07:25:51 pm »
Quote
a hotel stay with breakfast at your table, instead of a muddy field with a gas stove. 
i'll take the field and stove thanks.
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #769 on: February 02, 2023, 07:29:30 pm »
So even if you feel EV isn't for you today I doubt you will be saying the same in 2025 - 2030.   Meanwhile where are all the hydrogen models to compete with EVs?
You are forgetting charging costs... an ICE hybrid is cheaper to run over long distances for the next decade. Hydrogen comes second cost wise. I have already done that math and likely other, cost consience, people have done that as well. There is an 80% chance I'll skip BEV and 2 cars from now, I'll be driving around in an FCEV. Charging costs are what is going to limit BEV adoption.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 07:32:37 pm by nctnico »
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Offline tom66

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #770 on: February 02, 2023, 07:44:05 pm »
You are forgetting charging costs... an ICE hybrid is cheaper to run over long distances for the next decade. Hydrogen comes second cost wise. I have already done that math and likely other, cost consience, people have done that as well. There is an 80% chance I'll skip BEV and 2 cars from now, I'll be driving around in an FCEV. Charging costs are what is going to limit BEV adoption.

ICE only becomes even slightly competitive if you exclusively use fast charging stations.  If you charge at home or at night, it's between 1/5th and 1/3rd the cost per mile in the UK.   Yes, even in this time of high energy prices.  Then you add lower TCO like reduced servicing.

As for the purchase cost, depends if you're comparing used to new.  Brand new Prius costs almost the same as a mid-range EV now.  £24,500 for the Prius vs £26,000 for the MG4 EV. 

Or looking at 2 year old models (as this is when a load of EVs were launched) - cheapest Vauxhall Corsa-e ~£18k on Autotrader versus 2 year old Yaris - cheapest £14k.

The price gap is closing, and it's closing fast. You'd have to do very few miles, or only charge on high power DC, for a £4k difference to be not worth it. (I pay 2.5p per mile, petrol is about 15p per mile, so difference in cost is made up after 32,000 miles, or about 3-4 years of normal usage.)

But of course you can buy a 15-20 year old Prius, can't do that yet for EVs. 

As I said, if you are travelling every day long distances, then EV might not make sense yet, but that's rapidly changing.

Anyway, I suspect this thread is going round in circles...
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 07:46:50 pm by tom66 »
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #771 on: February 02, 2023, 07:51:34 pm »
You are forgetting charging costs... an ICE hybrid is cheaper to run over long distances for the next decade. Hydrogen comes second cost wise. I have already done that math and likely other, cost consience, people have done that as well. There is an 80% chance I'll skip BEV and 2 cars from now, I'll be driving around in an FCEV. Charging costs are what is going to limit BEV adoption.

ICE only becomes even slightly competitive if you exclusively use fast charging stations.  If you charge at home or at night, it's between 1/5th and 1/3rd the cost per mile in the UK.   Yes, even in this time of high energy prices.  Then you add lower TCO like reduced servicing.
For long trips you can't charge at home so that is out. And you seriously overestimate the cost of servicing a car or even TCO. Number 1 cost is fuel, number 2 is suspension & tires, number 3 is road taxes, number 4 is the rest but at this stage you are in noise. Looking at the cost of my current car: I've spend about 35k euro on fuel, about 6k euro suspension & tires, another 5k euro on road taxes, 4k euro to write it off and about 3k euro on servicing. Cost per km is around 21 eurocents. Next car is going to be a hybrid and I hope to drive the cost per km down to 18 eurocents. If you actually know about the real servicing costs of a car, then you'd know a BEV is not going to be cheaper to maintain but more expensive due to more wear & tear on the suspension. Ofcourse, these costs are low in the first 5 years of a car's life (which all comparisons are based on) but over the entire lifetime, that picture looks entirely different.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2023, 07:55:14 pm by nctnico »
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Offline tom66

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #772 on: February 02, 2023, 08:02:28 pm »
For long trips you can't charge at home so that is out.

Not true, you start with a full battery, unless you forgot to charge it.  So the cost per mile increases the further away from this starting charge you get.  But if you only need to charge once on your trip, e.g. for the return, then it's half the cost and so on.

And you seriously overestimate the cost of servicing a car or even TCO. Number 1 cost is fuel, number 2 is suspension & tires, number 3 is road taxes, number 4 is the rest but at this stage you are in noise.

Servicing for my car is £200 per year (done at an independent shop) because it's a plugin hybrid everything needs to be changed at 10k miles/1yr rather than a regular ICE which might go longer.  Gearbox oil is £300 every 3-4 years (VW ATF is expensive) and timing belt should be done every 6-7 years which is about £1,200.  So all in I reckon £500 per year in servicing. Definitely much less than fuel but not nothing.  And definitely nowhere close to tyres which are £450 for a set which last about 3-4yrs.  The only service an EV really needs is brake fluid and maybe coolant at the 4yr mark.

Sure I could do it all myself but the idea of climbing under my car on the driveway is not attractive at all.  I'd probably screw it up too, knowing my luck.

Looking at the cost of my current car: I've spend about 35k euro on fuel, about 6k euro suspension & tires, another 5k euro on suspension, 4k euro to write it off and about 2k euro on servicing. Cost per km is around 21 eurocents.

Definitely agree depreciation is a huge part of the cost (I guess that's what you put as write off.)  So far my GTE has depreciated at about the same rate as the fuel used to power it (50000 miles, £6500 value lost = 13p/mile.) As for suspension, what are you doing to your car?  I have never needed more than tie rod ends done on my cars and that was a really old knackered piece of crap car.  The suspension on my Golf is fine and it's a 7 year old car.  Worst it has is a slight creak in the back going over a bump, it just needs lubing now and then.  We have plenty of pot holes around here and I've hit a few at speed without breaking anything.  I'd definitely say that's abnormal to have to spend so much on suspension repairs unless you live on a road that is a rumble strip.

Next car is going to be a hybrid and I hope to drive the cost per km down to 18 eurocents. If you actually know about the real servicing costs of a car, then you'd know a BEV is not going to be cheaper to maintain but more expensive due to more wear & tear on the suspension.

We must have completely different experiences because I kept all the costs for my car and used it to build a cost model in Excel.  The EV wins by (literal) miles.  The PHEV is still pretty good but once you go out of its battery range, the cost per mile starts making it harder to justify.  Hence why I'd be looking to replace it soon enough.
 

Online Monkeh

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #773 on: February 02, 2023, 08:25:49 pm »
If you actually know about the real servicing costs of a car, then you'd know a BEV is not going to be cheaper to maintain but more expensive due to more wear & tear on the suspension.

So the bushes and shocks wear out before they rust into a solid mass and consequently take a third the time to replace with lower material costs.
 

Online tautech

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Re: EV-based road transportation is not viable
« Reply #774 on: February 02, 2023, 08:28:36 pm »
Neighbor buddy went last week for a few days at a popular beach some 200km away and took his work BMW is it an I3 ?
New to EV's he is just this year after changing jobs and commented range anxiety nearly spoiled the trip however the addition costs of a public fast charge was the final straw. Some NZD75 charging costs while no such issues with ICE hasn't exactly made a convert of him.
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