General > General Technical Chat
First house for a young man
cdev:
All the complaints about banking regulation always frame it as if the money being borrowed is primarily for investment here in the US, but right now its not, and it seems to me if given the opportunity to borrow more and insanely inflexble investment protection rules which bite both ways (ISDS) its likely business will shed jobs here and invest in new construction and new factories, etc, overseas, which they frame it as "where the growth is" but just as much or more, its really "where the cheapest labor is". The "global value chains" system we're pushing frames all tasks as best done where they can be done the best for the cheapest, but often the emphasis is far more on cheapest than best.
So easy credit won't enable business to create jobs here any more than it will enable businesses to move more jobs overseas, or automate them. Also of course, jobs are going away in large numbers just because we are figuring out better ways to do them without people. That's pretty much unavoidable and it will mean massive job losses over the next decade, in all kinds of jobs.
Also, administrative jobs are being shifted overseas in large numbers.
This means to me that we may see another crash in home values soon due to large numbers of people losing jobs- which are going away for good, and not being able to find others, and losing their homes, depressing the market.
Banks like bubbles when the government bails them out of the consequences of them. Last I looked, we pay interest for loans to cover lenders for potential loses, not just as profits. Part of that profit should be spent on re-insurance and explicitly understood as meaning the lender did NOT get their risk covered by the government.
GreyWoolfe:
--- Quote from: rstofer on July 05, 2017, 06:57:08 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on July 05, 2017, 06:43:18 pm ---
--- Quote from: rstofer on July 05, 2017, 01:16:50 am ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on July 04, 2017, 09:44:55 pm ---I'm wondering what exactly you mean with ARM loans? Are those so they change the interest rate every year? If yes they may not be so bad. Over here you can get mortgages where the rate changes every year. Sure there will be good years and bad years but overall the interest rate is lower than longer term fixed rates. What I did in the past few years is wait for the interest rates to drop before committing to a longer term interest rate (which is pretty sweet if I may say so). I expect the interest rates won't stay as low as they currently are for very long; I expect to see a rise somewhere in 2017/2018.
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Right, Adjustable Rate Mortgages. It all depends on how it is structured. We just got a flyer for an ARM that started at 2.5% and, over time could get to 8% while a 30 year fixed might be 3%. The rate is intended to rise, it is not simply a matter related to the Prime rate. Bsically, the bank is lending money quite cheap in the first couple of years and making up their profit in later years.
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In a rather perverted way, ARMs make sense if you only plan to stay in the house for a couple of years, such as changing military deployment. It keeps the initial monthly payment lower and by the time the interest rate starts to rise, you are deployed elsewhere and selling.
Aha. That is completely different than a mortgage with a rate which follows the actual interest rates (like Euribor, Libor) + margin.
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When you think of the US, you need to think in terms of unregulated greed! Now, greed is good, that's true, but you need to read the fine print. If you think you are getting a deal (low initial interest rate), read the fine print. You're getting hosed a little farther down the line. There are no deals! The consumer always loses and they lose more if they're stupid. Think of it as a tax on stupidity.
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VK3DRB:
If you are ever considering buying in Australia and not living here (ie: hiding your cash or investing in our housing stock) you are not wanted. Go buy a place in your own country of residence.
rstofer:
I might be a stockholder in every one of the companies expanding overseas. I didn't buy their stock just because I'm a nice guy, I want an increasing stock price. Otherwise, I'm going to take my money and go elsewhere. Do whatever it takes to make my stock value increase! I'm not in the charity business.
Greed is good!
As to the bank bail-outs, let's not forget that the .gov TOLD Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac to write non-conforming loans and managed to change the banking regulations such that banks could make similar loans with lots of encouragement. This whole thing was a .gov experiment that backfired. Of course the .gov has some responsibility.
Nobody complained when home construction was at an all time high. Everybody was making money! The stock market was at record highs, home sales were at record highs as were prices. Money way easy to get thanks to .gov and non-conforming loans. What could possibly go wrong?
It's like musical chairs: When the music stops, somebody won't have a place to sit.
Had their not been bailouts, the banking failure would make 1929 look like a family picnic. Everything would have crashed, including my retirement. As it is, I had a few lean years in the stock market. These things are worrisome when you're retired because you simply don't have much time to recover. Allowing the banks to fail was simply not an option. We would have taken the rest of the world with us. As it is, many countries haven't fully recovered yet.
When you lose 20% on an investment, you need to make 25% to recover. If you lose 50%, you need 100% to recover. Just something to keep in mind.
NiHaoMike:
--- Quote from: LaserSteve on July 05, 2017, 05:42:46 pm ---HOAs and Electrical Engineers don't mix. You'll need antennas for satellite internet if there is no FIOS or a 2.4 Ghz directional panel for WISP,
No Engineer I know is happy with the internet speeds at his house these days, and many of them have two internet
feeds. If you have the renters, they will need high speed feeds of their own, a place to park their cars, and their own bathrooms.
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The FCC law also covers antennas used for satellite or fixed wireless internet service.
https://www.fcc.gov/media/over-air-reception-devices-rule
What is not explicitly covered are antennas for amateur radio, but for VHF/UHF, the antenna can double as a TV antenna and be covered. What is problematic is HF.
Satellite internet service is expensive and high latency, making it mostly for those who have no other option or want a backup that is resilient to disaster.
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