Forbes Administers a Slap and a Tickle to Fans of EVs

[SgtRock]

Greetings EEVBees:

--From Forbes a splash of cold water reality for the fans of battery EVs, with the notable exception of Tesla.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2014/05/28/except-for-tesla-electric-only-vehicles-are-failures-for-now-report/

"Expect early success too for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which lack the purity of battery-only but offer an acceptable compromise of limited clean driving without range anxiety. Renault of France famously used to claim that 10 per cent of global car sales would be electric-only by 2020. This is more likely to be closer to one per cent, the report said."

"High prices and range anxiety have crimped buyer enthusiasm for electric cars despite generous subsidies offered by some governments. Also, the advent of plug-in hybrid vehicles, which offer substantial battery–only and local emission free range of up to 40 miles before internal combustion engines kick in to save them, are undermining the case for battery only. Not only are battery cars pricey with unpredictable range, they also need a hugely expensive network of charging stations to make longer journeys even remotely viable."

--It should be added though, that eventually EVs and Hybrids will have to stand on their own, without subsidies, as well as paying their fair share of transportation taxes now shouldered only by ICE drivers.

--And, another Forbes article, about how EVs  could eventually replace the waning power demand for Power Utilities and prevent another horrendous value crash like the one East German educated Merkel induced in Germany with her pipe dream Energiewende program in Deutschland. I know, I know, who cares if Electric Utilities lose all their value, they are just companies after all and deserve to die, like all companies no? What could possibly go wrong?

 http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterdetwiler/2014/08/07/electric-vehicles-could-save-u-s-utilities-from-a-death-spiral/
 
"However, disruption and innovation can also involve shifts that move benefits and losses from one industry to another.  And if the electric industry can steal from the petroleum industry by vastly increasing the number of EVs, perhaps everybody wins except for the oil exporters (whom we are generally not so fond of anyway).

--Depending of course upon whether this non-petroleum power comes from of course. If it is coal, frack gas, or nuke, then possibly soon, if renewables then possibly forever. This will probably not occur overnight, in any case. And, it will probably occur a lot sooner if governments would quit artificially pushing up consumer electric costs, with hair brained swindles. I realize that is is a very difficult point for some to understand, that electricity costs have a direct bearing on the attractiveness of EVs, since many EV fanatics believe that "Market Forces" do not exist, or if they do they are evil. The way things are going, when the EV finally arrives in a big way, the governments will have taken all of the joy, not to mention savings out of it.

--Meanwhile at the margin, electric forklifts, small electric warehouse trucks, and LSV (Low Speed Vehicles) also know as "Neighbourhood Vehicles" are growing apace because they make economic sense and because the government has resisted putting its hoof down and mandating by fiat a one size fits all regulatory juggernaut in order to screw up the market.

--Lastly, I was wondering how LSVs are progressing Down Under. It occurred to me that something like one of these, see picture, might be just the ticket for the Jones Family to use for local runs.

"But oh, beamish nephew, beware of the day,
If your Snark be a Boojum! For then,
You will softly and suddenly vanish away,
And never be met with again!'
Charles Lutwidge Dodgson (Lewis Carroll) 1832 -1898

Best Regards
Clear Ether

[tom66]

EVs really are a failure, aren't they?

It's worth noting that EVs powered by evil coal produce about the same or slightly less emissions for comparable cars. However, if you switch that supply to even something like natural gas, or even better nuclear, then it looks even better. Actual grid averages put emissions around 1/4 that of IC engine cars.

Let's make a few assumptions about this "grid problem" that is harped on about. The average American drives ~37 miles a day (https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm, bottom right cell).

Let's say they own a top-of-the-range Tesla Model S P85 which does 340Wh per mile EPA rated. This means 37 miles takes 12.6kWh, so their daily energy usage is an additional 12.6kWh. This is a heavy high performance car seating 5 plus 2 children. Most people probably won't drive such a car.

And let's say that 10% switched to a P85 tomorrow. (For now, we'll ignore other vehicles -- just assume passenger cars.) That's 25 million cars. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_United_States)

The average US power generation per day is about 11TWh. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_United_States

25 million EVs would use... 315MWh, or about 1/30th of the electrical power generation per day. Even if everyone switched to EVs tomorrow (250 million) it's only a 1/3rd of the grid capability -- it's not unbelievable that generation could be increased to make up for this.

edit: corrected typo

[SgtRock]

Dear Tom:

--As per usual there is very little you have to say that I disagree with, other than to note that if there is failure here it is not the EV, but rather the slap dash, go marching off in all directions at once, government policies. The cream will rise to the top if you quit shaking the jar. Cheers!

"But leave the Wise to wrangle, and with me
The Quarrel of the Universe let be:
And, in some corner of the Hubbub couch'd,
Make Game of that which makes as much of Thee.
"Omar Khyayyam" 1048 1131
 
Best Regards
Clear Ether

[sleemanj]

--Lastly, I was wondering how LSVs are progressing Down Under. It occurred to me that something like one of these, see picture, might be just the ticket for the Jones Family to use for local runs.

The US is I believe rather liberal in what it allows on it's roads.

I don't think it would meet the requirements to be registered as a road legal vehicle here in NZ.  Unfortunately.  Australia is even more stringent.

For example this...
 
can be put on the road in the US, but not here in NZ.

I drive a (petrol) single seat kei class truck (Daihatsu Midget II), it's great fun, useful, economical, and I've often thought that if the motor was to blow up it would be a neat candidate for electrification.



But it was imported and put on the road long before regulations tightened up (so it's allowed to stay road legal) and as far as I know current kei cars and similar can no longer be registered on the roads.

[SgtRock]

Dear Sleemanj:

--That has got to be just about the cutest thing I ever saw. I could pick up women with that thing all day, if it had 2 seats, oh well, I could still offer to haul the ashes. Please tell us you have more pictures.

"Yes, a genuine expert can always foretell a thing that is five hundred years away easier than he can a thing that's only five hundred seconds off."
Mark Twain (Samuel Langhorne Clemens ) 1835 - 1910

Best Regards
Clear Ether

[GK]

You must have no manhood and be devoid of a capacity for self respect, and be utterly resigned to the fact, to be seen driving something like that.

[tom66]

--As per usual there is very little you have to say that I disagree with, other than to note that if there is failure here it is not the EV, but rather the slap dash, go marching off in all directions at once, government policies. The cream will rise to the top if you quit shaking the jar. Cheers!

I have to say I'm opposed to the subsidies on the Tesla P85D, a ~$120k car. There's a rumour going about that GM will start selling a 200 mile Chevy "Bolt", that's pure electric, starting at around $30k. For at least the start I think it's a good idea to subsidise that vehicle as that will be a stretch for most to afford. Then again GM is heavily subsidised as it is.

[coppice]

--From Forbes a splash of cold water reality for the fans of battery EVs, with the notable exception of Tesla.

Tesla are the only people to have taken battery EV cars seriously, at least as production vehicles. I've seen very serious looking prototypes from people like Hyundai, but I don't think those have gone into production. So, if Tesla gets some praise, they seems pretty encouraging for electric cars. If the rest of the market gets damned, its hardly surprising.

"Renault of France famously used to claim that 10 per cent of global car sales would be electric-only by 2020. This is more likely to be closer to one per cent, the report said."

If Renault/Nissan/Samsung thought that 10% of cars sold in 2020 could be electric by 2020, shouldn't they have launched a serious contender by now? No, the Leaf, and its Renault and Samsung variants don't count as serious electric cars. They are little more than gasoline car conversions.

[Red Squirrel]

The biggest issue with EVs is energy storage capacity.  If a battery could be developed for cheap with small environmental impact and that is easy to recycled that could store as much energy as a gas of tank, it would be a complete game changer I think. Stick a solar panel and/or retractable wind turbine on the car and it becomes practically self powered.  Cars spend the majority of their time parked so they could absorb energy during this time.  For after a long trip you then plug it in.

They could also make the batteries standard so you can pull up to a station and swap them out for an instant charged battery.  Basically it could work similar to propane exchange programs but for batteries.

Everybody wants to patent everything these days though, so a revolutionary tech that everybody can use is not something that happens much any more. Tesla was nice enough to release all their patents to public domain though so if someone comes up with a super high density battery we have to hope it's them.

Switching to electric vehicles is only half the battle though, need to switch the grid to 100% green too if we want EVs to really help slow down or stop global warming.  Super high density batteries could perhaps make green grid more viable though as there could be stationary battery plants along with solar/wind plants.

[G7PSK]

If there was a large move to all electric cars the grid load may not increase that much as there will be a far lower load from filling stations and oil refineries.The main problem as far as I am concerned is the range of electric cars, not when new but a couple of years down the line when the battery only has 40% of its original capacity an ICE power unit has to be pretty well clapped out not to be able to move the car and that will be many years from new. Batteries either need to be a fraction of the present price or need a far longer useful life.

[nctnico]

Range anxiety is just something that idiots who can't do simple maths have for the first few weeks of driving an EV.

Then explain to me why I never get overtaken by a Tesla model-S? Everytime I go on the road I spot at least one and the drivers are always driving slower than the rest of the traffic. The only explaination must be range anxiety.

[janoc]

You must have no manhood and be devoid of a capacity for self respect, and be utterly resigned to the fact, to be seen driving something like that.

Good to know that manhood (or the lack of thereof) is judged by the cylinder displacement and shape of one's car.

 

[tom66]

Range anxiety is just something that idiots who can't do simple maths have for the first few weeks of driving an EV.

Then explain to me why I never get overtaken by a Tesla model-S? Everytime I go on the road I spot at least one and the drivers are always driving slower than the rest of the traffic. The only explaination must be range anxiety.

Range anxiety doesn't really exist with a long range EV like a Tesla. But you still want to minimise the charging time and the supercharging network is only sparsely connected and you have to drive carefully to reach destinations. You get 300 miles at 55mph, about 230 miles at 70mph,  but you have no margin left if you do that.

When there are 500 superchargers (by 2016) the map will look like this:
http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/images/supercharger/maps/2016-northamerica.jpg?20150111am

...and then you would never really have to be worried about range, as long as you have ~50 mile range to get to the next supercharger.

[zapta]

Good to know that manhood (or the lack of thereof) is judged by the cylinder displacement and shape of one's car.

 

Don't forget the exhaust's note!

[MacAttak]

The biggest issue with EVs is energy storage capacity.  If a battery could be developed for cheap with small environmental impact and that is easy to recycled that could store as much energy as a gas of tank, it would be a complete game changer I think. Stick a solar panel and/or retractable wind turbine on the car and it becomes practically self powered.  Cars spend the majority of their time parked so they could absorb energy during this time.  For after a long trip you then plug it in.

They could also make the batteries standard so you can pull up to a station and swap them out for an instant charged battery.  Basically it could work similar to propane exchange programs but for batteries.

Everybody wants to patent everything these days though, so a revolutionary tech that everybody can use is not something that happens much any more. Tesla was nice enough to release all their patents to public domain though so if someone comes up with a super high density battery we have to hope it's them.

Switching to electric vehicles is only half the battle though, need to switch the grid to 100% green too if we want EVs to really help slow down or stop global warming.  Super high density batteries could perhaps make green grid more viable though as there could be stationary battery plants along with solar/wind plants.

Silliness.

Fisker proved that solar panels on top of a car is a dumb idea. Retractable wind turbine? Even worse. Adding dead weight to a vehicle only lowers it's efficiency. This is why the "range extended" cars are poor options. They lug around an ICE and all the mechanical crap that goes with it and then when the battery is low the AC motor/gearbox and heavy batteries then become the dead weight. You get lower MPG on gas AND lower eMPG on electricity. It's lose-lose.

Swapping propane tanks works because a new tank is less than $50. I'll be damned if I'm going to let you replace my ~$20,000 battery with a random one, and if it's a loaner system then you better not put my battery in someone else's car before I get back.

[MacAttak]

If there was a large move to all electric cars the grid load may not increase that much as there will be a far lower load from filling stations and oil refineries.The main problem as far as I am concerned is the range of electric cars, not when new but a couple of years down the line when the battery only has 40% of its original capacity an ICE power unit has to be pretty well clapped out not to be able to move the car and that will be many years from new. Batteries either need to be a fraction of the present price or need a far longer useful life.

The grid today can accomodate a LOT more EV's without any changes whatsoever. Most EV charging happens at night, during off-peak hours. It's essentially "free" power to the utility company who otherwise needs to dump the power into waste heat or ratchet down power plants.

And battery health is only a problem when the car doesn't have a reasonable battery management system. The Tesla packs have been shown to have negligible capacity loss over extended lifespans. I know of several drivers with over 100,000 miles on their Model S and nobody has reported losing more than a mile or two of range capacity so far (so range loss is less than 0.5% over 100k miles). Now the Leafs are a different story - but they use vastly inferior battery management systems. The trade-off is that a Leaf has a much cheaper battery so when it gets old you just replace it. But that's not the case with a more advanced system like Tesla uses.

[MacAttak]

Range anxiety is just something that idiots who can't do simple maths have for the first few weeks of driving an EV.

Then explain to me why I never get overtaken by a Tesla model-S? Everytime I go on the road I spot at least one and the drivers are always driving slower than the rest of the traffic. The only explaination must be range anxiety.

Not everyone is out to prove something. There are a few people who buy the cars and drive it "like they stole it"... but that usually wears off after a few weeks. Myself, I only average about 380 Wh/mi, but I know people that work hard to keep below 300. It's like a game for them. I'll floor it from time to time, but mostly I'm a safe driver who keeps to the speed limits while on public roads. BUT, if you really want to get passed up by a Tesla then I wouldn't want to disappoint.

And "range anxiety" is nothing more than FUD, *especially* for Teslas. Superchargers are placed every 100-130 miles on major highways (often even closer)... I could drive 90+ mph and not be in any danger of running empty. Of course, I'd probably be going to jail if I did that. In fact, for what 99% of drivers do - commute to work and back, and maybe run some errands for a few hours - range isn't even something you think about. You plug in every night when you park your car and it's full again before you wake up.

And for people with really short commutes, the cheaper EV's (Leaf, etc) are a great option for the same reasons.

[Corporate666]

The original article is from 8 months ago, and to me - saying "electric cars are a failure!  (except the Tesla, PHEV's and hybrids)" is sort of like saying "I am the smartest person in the world! (except for anyone with an IQ higher than mine)".

Tesla, the Volt, Prius and others have proven that EV's do, in fact, work.  It's a new kind of car - not all entrants in the market were successful, but that happens in any market and with any new technology.  It will take time for producers to hone their products to the needs and desires of buyers.  But it's been proven that the naysayers were wrong - EV's work and work well.

[nctnico]

Range anxiety is just something that idiots who can't do simple maths have for the first few weeks of driving an EV.

Then explain to me why I never get overtaken by a Tesla model-S? Everytime I go on the road I spot at least one and the drivers are always driving slower than the rest of the traffic. The only explaination must be range anxiety.

Not everyone is out to prove something. There are a few people who buy the cars and drive it "like they stole it"... but that usually wears off after a few weeks.

Read more carefull: Tesla owners drive their cars slower than the other traffic on average. I don't mean they go slower than the few (1 or 2) that exceed the speed limits by a great margin.

[Corporate666]

Range anxiety is just something that idiots who can't do simple maths have for the first few weeks of driving an EV.

Then explain to me why I never get overtaken by a Tesla model-S? Everytime I go on the road I spot at least one and the drivers are always driving slower than the rest of the traffic. The only explaination must be range anxiety.

Not everyone is out to prove something. There are a few people who buy the cars and drive it "like they stole it"... but that usually wears off after a few weeks.

Read more carefull: Tesla owners drive their cars slower than the other traffic on average. I don't mean they go slower than the few (1 or 2) that exceed the speed limits by a great margin.

There are 568 Teslas in The Netherlands - a country with a population of 16.8 million people.  If we remove the bullshit factor, "every time I see one" is 2 or 3 times.  And almost certainly, it's the same one(s).

Anecdotal evidence on a few instances where the subject of the observation is the same subject is not a valid means to draw a conclusion about the whole group.  Not to mention there is no demonstrated causation between the speed they drive and "range anxiety".  To claim otherwise is one of the sillier posts I've ever read on here.

But confirmation bias is a cruel mistress.

Meanwhile, there are about 15,000 Teslas in the USA, which is a much greater density of cars per person than in your country - and I've seen maybe 5 Teslas in the past couple of years..

[zapta]

Confirmation bias? I overtake a lot in my Leaf. It's great to have power instantly available when pulling out to go round someone. No issues with range going to work and back.

What is the official 0 to 60 (or 100) of you car?  How much does it coos before subsidies?

[dannyf]

Officially 0-60 is about 9 seconds

Those must be the infamous mojo-chan seconds?

[tom66]

Nissan's specification is 9.8 seconds, I believe. That's pretty average for a small car. The Leaf is much faster doing 10-60 or 10-40 speeds. It's also fastest with a 100% SOC battery, and when it's cool-warm outside, though that will only be 0.5-1s faster.

[nctnico]

Range anxiety is just something that idiots who can't do simple maths have for the first few weeks of driving an EV.

Then explain to me why I never get overtaken by a Tesla model-S? Everytime I go on the road I spot at least one and the drivers are always driving slower than the rest of the traffic. The only explaination must be range anxiety.

Not everyone is out to prove something. There are a few people who buy the cars and drive it "like they stole it"... but that usually wears off after a few weeks.

Read more carefull: Tesla owners drive their cars slower than the other traffic on average. I don't mean they go slower than the few (1 or 2) that exceed the speed limits by a great margin.

There are 568 Teslas in The Netherlands - a country with a population of 16.8 million people.  If we remove the bullshit factor, "every time I see one" is 2 or 3 times.  And almost certainly, it's the same one(s).

No, 9 out of 10 times I drive to a customer I see a Tesla on the road. I drive at random times and not very often so the chance seeing the same car every time is near to zero. Oh, and I stopped counting the Teslas used as taxis from the main airport. BTW the number of Model-S in the NL is closer to 2000 or 3000 (close to 1200 got sold in 2013 alone). With all the tax incentives they are incredibly cheap for private business owners. Around $35000 for the top model.

[dannyf]

Around $35000 for the top model.