General > General Technical Chat

Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure

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bdunham7:

--- Quote from: tom66 on March 06, 2023, 04:31:57 pm ---  And in the US, these drivers kill about 40,000 per year, and between 10-20x that many serious injuries (depending on definition).  So any system that could achieve at least that level of safety would be better.  Why couldn't cameras or LIDAR with appropriate software reach at least that level of safety? It could likely be better, because it would never get distracted or drunk.

--- End quote ---

The problem is that your statistics on human drivers includes drunk drivers, distracted drivers, drivers who flagrantly violate traffic laws, plainly incompetent drivers that haven't lost their licences as of yet and so forth.  I don't think that an automated system that does just slightly better than that is acceptable at all.  In fact I see absolutely no justification for self-driving unless it can do significantly better than an experienced, competent, wide-awake, undistracted and cautious human driver.  IMO, that would only be practical at current technology levels if you at least used some additional sensing (LIDAR, etc), massive self-updating databases and perhaps external guide systems or artifacts.  The sad part about Telsa FSD is that I think it probaby is possible, but they aren't doing it.

nctnico:

--- Quote from: bdunham7 on March 06, 2023, 04:45:24 pm ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on March 06, 2023, 04:31:57 pm ---  And in the US, these drivers kill about 40,000 per year, and between 10-20x that many serious injuries (depending on definition).  So any system that could achieve at least that level of safety would be better.  Why couldn't cameras or LIDAR with appropriate software reach at least that level of safety? It could likely be better, because it would never get distracted or drunk.

--- End quote ---

The problem is that your statistics on human drivers includes drunk drivers, distracted drivers, drivers who flagrantly violate traffic laws, plainly incompetent drivers that haven't lost their licences as of yet and so forth.  I don't think that an automated system that does just slightly better than that is acceptable at all.  In fact I see absolutely no justification for self-driving unless it can do significantly better than an experienced, competent, wide-awake, undistracted and cautious human driver.

--- End quote ---
Such drivers don't exist...

The truth between your and Tom66's posting is somewhere in the middle: on one hand doing self driving is very hard to do due to the interaction between drivers. Driving is way more than simple colission avoidance. OTOH a self driving system doesn't need to be perfect. It needs to be better than the average human driver (including drunks, retards and old people).

james_s:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 06, 2023, 05:05:32 pm ---Such drivers don't exist...

The truth between your and Tom66's posting is somewhere in the middle: on one hand doing self driving is very hard to do due to the interaction between drivers. Driving is way more than simple colission avoidance. OTOH a self driving system doesn't need to be perfect. It needs to be better than the average human driver (including drunks, retards and old people).

--- End quote ---

I remember being taught way back in drivers ed that driving is primarily a social interaction rather than a mechanical task, and social interactions are something computers are not good at. Any automated driving system has to be substantially better than average drivers for it to be acceptable. If it turns out that manufactures are liable, then the obvious outcome is that they will dedicate huge resources to legal teams to crush anyone involved in an accident with one of these self driving cars that tries to claim the manufacture is at fault. Even in cases where it is blatantly the fault of the self driving car, the companies will be able to bleed people dry in the courts and coerce them into settling. Maybe it's different in other parts of the world but here it is all but impossible for a regular individual to take on a large corporate entity, an entity with enormous resources can game the court system until the little guy runs out of money and can't afford to fight further, or in many cases they know this will happen and do whatever they can to cut their losses. It will be disastrous.

AVGresponding:

--- Quote from: james_s on March 06, 2023, 05:50:07 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on March 06, 2023, 05:05:32 pm ---Such drivers don't exist...

The truth between your and Tom66's posting is somewhere in the middle: on one hand doing self driving is very hard to do due to the interaction between drivers. Driving is way more than simple colission avoidance. OTOH a self driving system doesn't need to be perfect. It needs to be better than the average human driver (including drunks, retards and old people).

--- End quote ---

I remember being taught way back in drivers ed that driving is primarily a social interaction rather than a mechanical task, and social interactions are something computers are not good at. Any automated driving system has to be substantially better than average drivers for it to be acceptable. If it turns out that manufactures are liable, then the obvious outcome is that they will dedicate huge resources to legal teams to crush anyone involved in an accident with one of these self driving cars that tries to claim the manufacture is at fault. Even in cases where it is blatantly the fault of the self driving car, the companies will be able to bleed people dry in the courts and coerce them into settling. Maybe it's different in other parts of the world but here it is all but impossible for a regular individual to take on a large corporate entity, an entity with enormous resources can game the court system until the little guy runs out of money and can't afford to fight further, or in many cases they know this will happen and do whatever they can to cut their losses. It will be disastrous.

--- End quote ---

Hence the class action.

james_s:

--- Quote from: AVGresponding on March 06, 2023, 05:59:33 pm ---Hence the class action.

--- End quote ---

Ah yes, the windfall for the lawyers while giving the peasants a few pennies. A class action lawsuit is not going to help the random person that gets creamed by a self driving car, receives a debilitating injury and gets crushed in court by the manufacture of the car that caused the accident.

I think if they do manage to hold the manufactures liable they will go out of business. A self driving car that is slightly better than the average driver will cause hundreds if not thousands of accidents a day around the world. Many of those will be serious and damages will be many billions of dollars a year. It could put them out of business.

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