Author Topic: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure  (Read 6232 times)

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Online Psi

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2023, 11:43:08 am »
AI FSD is never going to be the same as a human driver.
It will always be "fundamentally different" and this is just something the industry and the public will have to accept if it's ever allowed to drive unsupervised. 

The types of situations were human drivers die on the roads wont be the same as the types of situations where people die while being driven by unsupervised AI FSD cars.  The AI will be able to do some pretty quick maneuvers to save you from an accident that a human wouldn't have the reflexes or awareness of.  But the AI will crash in some situations where a human would never have done so. 

If there's one thing you can guarantee it's that those two approaches to controlling a car on the road (human vs FSD) are very different and both have vastly different strengths and weaknesses. And that is ok, and to be expected.

Regarding external infrastructure to aid FSD.  I suspect this will come in the form of more/better signage to instruct AI FSD of anything it needs to be aware of, rather than an online database.
Signage is better because it gives a solid location to reference the meaning of the sign from.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2023, 11:51:15 am by Psi »
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Offline Marco

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2023, 12:39:40 pm »
I think what we could use are entirely new towns, just to show what is possible.

Make a new town and pick a level 3 traffic follower, force all residents to only use that for motorized transport and engineer the town around it. Not only is the town designed to accommodate the automation, the automation doesn't have to accommodate human drivers most of the time. Human driving would only be for exceptions, requiring either an emergency or a permit. Visitors will need to park outside the town and then take an automated taxi.

Inside town limits, the level 3 car can then become personal rapid transit.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2023, 12:41:24 pm by Marco »
 

Offline TomKatt

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #27 on: March 07, 2023, 03:58:49 pm »
I think what we could use are entirely new towns, just to show what is possible.
Sounds like a resort more than a town...  Like Disney's EPCOT Future World...
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Offline james_s

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #28 on: March 07, 2023, 06:02:36 pm »
I think what we could use are entirely new towns, just to show what is possible.

Make a new town and pick a level 3 traffic follower, force all residents to only use that for motorized transport and engineer the town around it. Not only is the town designed to accommodate the automation, the automation doesn't have to accommodate human drivers most of the time. Human driving would only be for exceptions, requiring either an emergency or a permit. Visitors will need to park outside the town and then take an automated taxi.

Inside town limits, the level 3 car can then become personal rapid transit.

The fundamental flaw here is expecting everyone to live, work and operate within that town. In the real world most people can't move every time they get a new job, and they have friends and family in other towns. I don't know anyone that doesn't regularly drive to other towns/cities than the one in which they live. That doesn't stop local politicians from fantasizing about having a "walking city" and planning their development around it. The result is terrible congestion with people driving around in circles looking for a place to park.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #29 on: March 07, 2023, 06:07:41 pm »
I think your friend misunderstands just how cautious SDC's are, if anything they are too cautious compared to human drivers.  Tesla's for instance phantom brake sometimes when they perceive pedestrians on the road regardless of whether they are really there - the NN ends up being overly sensitive to these objects because it's hyper-trained on them. The Waymo car will pretty much not move if there is a pedestrian standing near to it.  I could actually foresee very effective protests against SDC's by say taxi drivers now out of a job, you merely need to get close to one to interfere with its operation and it will shut right down.  There have been some experiments with fake stop signs on billboards to interfere with SDC's, which will need some interesting workarounds.  I actually think we will get to the point where we have remote human drivers to 'unstick' vehicles that get stuck, but the number of these operators will be many fewer than cars on the road so it will still work out as a net win from a labour savings perspective. And that's really what SDC's are about from a commercial perspective, Waymo et al. don't really care that much about safety, other than not wanting to be embroiled in lawsuits, they want to run taxis where you don't need to employ people to run them.


I think he has a better understanding of them than you. They may be cautious but that hasn't stopped multiple Teslas from slamming into the back of parked fire engines and other emergency vehicles at high speed. There have been a few that have slammed into freeway dividers and walls at high speed. It is extremely arrogant to think that these can be designed so that this sort of thing will never happen. It is just luck that none of the things they have hit at high speed have been a cluster of pedestrians or a bus full of kids. It will happen eventually.

Personally I don't even understand why anyone would want a self driving car. The whole point of having a car is you get to drive it. If I can't drive a car I'll just take the bus.
 
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Offline AndyC_772

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #30 on: March 07, 2023, 06:16:48 pm »
I'd quite like one for occasions when I'm not able to drive myself - like, for example, home from a night involving beer.

Perhaps when I'm older, and no longer as physically fit as I am today, it'll be useful too.

I've no interest at all in one that I might be expected to take over and drive if the computer sees something it can't cope with, though. The entire use case for a self driving car revolves around the fact that there are times when I can't drive it, or, by extension, take responsibility for it.

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #31 on: March 07, 2023, 06:40:11 pm »
There is an interesting correlation I have noticed.  In various threads on this forum many users have expressed their opinions about standard transmissions vs automatic transmissions.  To a large degree those that favor standard transmissions and the driving experience are the ones denigrating FSD technology, and projecting their views of the market onto the entire market.  The penetration of automatic transmissions into the US marketplace is an indicator that there is a flaw in this perception.

More on topic, I definitely agree that the task of FSD could be greatly simplified with external infrastructure.  The version of FSD envisioned by GM in the 1950s (implemented only on limited access freeways with guide wires in each lane, and no human driven cars allowed) could easily be implemented today.  Whether it is impossible without external infrastructure seems to me to be an open question, and one that has both technical and social content.

The required performance of an FSD vehicle is largely a social issue, as indicated by all the discussion of liability and whether FSD has to be merely better than the drunks and otherwise incapacitated drivers that inhabit our roads, better than the average driver, or substantially better than the very best drivers.  In my circle of acquaintances opinions on this subject vary widely, and with a noticeable trend in acceptance of FSD among the younger members of that group.  Which indicates that even if the answer were sorted out today, there is real potential for change over time.  That difference in acceptance is likely regional also, as indicated by the widely different acceptance of automatic transmissions in different parts of the world.

This social acceptance thing has other parameters.  The Teslas driving into the backs of vehicles gets lots of attention, and it is often stated that it is something a human driver would never do.  But a close personal friends wife did just that, and a few minutes searching on YouTube will surface many other cases people driving into the backs of construction vehicles, service vehicles and police cars making traffic stops.  While it is obvious that a fully attentive, cautious and capable person wouldn't do these things, no one is constantly fully attentive.  Our perceptions of what people do are often not data driven.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #32 on: March 07, 2023, 06:50:46 pm »
There is an interesting correlation I have noticed.  In various threads on this forum many users have expressed their opinions about standard transmissions vs automatic transmissions.  To a large degree those that favor standard transmissions and the driving experience are the ones denigrating FSD technology, and projecting their views of the market onto the entire market.  The penetration of automatic transmissions into the US marketplace is an indicator that there is a flaw in this perception.

I *hate* automatic transmissions, I think manual transmission proficiency should be required to get a driver's license, then if you really want an automatic you can get one. Manual transmissions make better drivers that are more engaged and more attentive, less likely to be multitasking. With a manual it is impossible to mistake the gas for the brake and smash through a building. You can't coast along in la-la land with a phone in one hand and a coffee in the other steering with your knee, you're actively using both hands and both feet. The problem we have now is that so many people have never had the opportunity to drive a manual that few ask for one and few cars are made with one, which results in even fewer people experiencing one. Many people don't even know somebody that has one that could teach them. My number one requirement for a ICE powered car is manual transmission, if it doesn't have that I'm not interested, won't even consider it.

It is probably the same characteristic that makes me not want self driving. When it comes to machinery I am a control freak, I want complete control over the machine, period, this is not negotiable. I absolutely loathe technology that tries to be helpful and guess what I want because more often than not it is wrong and I find myself fighting with the tech.

A human driver that slams into the back of a lit up emergency vehicle should lose their license on the spot and be charged with negligent driving, that is inexcusible.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2023, 06:52:22 pm by james_s »
 
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Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #33 on: March 07, 2023, 06:52:58 pm »
There is an interesting correlation I have noticed.  In various threads on this forum many users have expressed their opinions about standard transmissions vs automatic transmissions.  To a large degree those that favor standard transmissions and the driving experience are the ones denigrating FSD technology, and projecting their views of the market onto the entire market.  The penetration of automatic transmissions into the US marketplace is an indicator that there is a flaw in this perception.

I *hate* automatic transmissions, I think manual transmission proficiency should be required to get a driver's license, then if you really want an automatic you can get one. Manual transmissions make better drivers that are more engaged and more attentive, less likely to be multitasking. With a manual it is impossible to mistake the gas for the brake and smash through a building. You can't coast along in la-la land with a phone in one hand and a coffee in the other steering with your knee, you're actively using both hands and both feet. The problem we have now is that so many people have never had the opportunity to drive a manual that few ask for one and few cars are made with one, which results in even fewer people experiencing one. Many people don't even know somebody that has one that could teach them. My number one requirement for a ICE powered car is manual transmission, if it doesn't have that I'm not interested, won't even consider it.

It is probably the same characteristic that makes me not want self driving. When it comes to machinery I am a control freak, I want complete control over the machine, period, this is not negotiable. I absolutely loathe technology that tries to be helpful and guess what I want because more often than not it is wrong and I find myself fighting with the tech.

A human driver that slams into the back of a lit up emergency vehicle should lose their license on the spot and be charged with negligent driving, that is inexcusible.

QED
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2023, 07:08:14 pm »
I mean this is hardly surprising is it? It should be obvious that a person that dislikes having the car shift for them is going to dislike having the car drive for them even more. At least I would think that's obvious. For some people a car is nothing more than a transportation appliance, Americans in particular are lazy and just want to get where they're going, other people like to drive. Another symptom of this is that the vast majority of cars are incredibly boring and nondescript, the market seems to have settled on the generic CUV design, virtually everyone is making them and they all have comically enormous grills and emblems because that's about the only thing that differentiates the brands.
 
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Offline Marco

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2023, 07:18:09 pm »
The fundamental flaw here is expecting everyone to live, work and operate within that town.
Not everyone, just the people who self select to live there and sign the HOA agreement.
Quote
In the real world most people can't move every time they get a new job, and they have friends and family in other towns.
The car would simply be a car outside of the town.

By removing the human element most of the time, it could double as personal rapid transport inside the town.
 

Online bdunham7

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #36 on: March 07, 2023, 07:50:30 pm »
There is an interesting correlation I have noticed.  In various threads on this forum many users have expressed their opinions about standard transmissions vs automatic transmissions.  To a large degree those that favor standard transmissions and the driving experience are the ones denigrating FSD technology, and projecting their views of the market onto the entire market.  The penetration of automatic transmissions into the US marketplace is an indicator that there is a flaw in this perception.

Really?  I can only think of one example that exhibits that correlation.  I have no issues or phobias about automatic transmissions, antilock brakes and so on.  However, I have at times observed significant problems with these technologies at times--there were some real issues with antilock brakes when they were first introduced, for example.  I wasn't around for the advent of automatic transmissions, but I know of specific examples where a manual was much preferred.  I have no problems with the overall idea of FSD, but I don't think it works nearly well enough yet and I don't think the current path is going to get us there.  We can't even manage self-driving trains that stay on the rails, except for some small closed-circuit applications like airport trams.

For me, unlike james_s, I have no desire to shift my own gears even though I'm perfectly capable and I've driven plenty of miles so I'd be perfectly happy to let something competent take over--especially on long trips.  I'm not "anti-FSD", I just don't believe it exists yet.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2023, 07:53:54 pm by bdunham7 »
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Offline james_s

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #37 on: March 07, 2023, 07:52:06 pm »
Not everyone, just the people who self select to live there and sign the HOA agreement.

I think HOAs should be abolished and outlawed, I was so fortunate to find a house in a neighborhood that doesn't have one but I know many people that are stuck with them and can't get rid of them. They are like a cancer that infects neighborhoods and once they are there it is very difficult to eradicate them.

Either way don't think this is going to work, but if someone wants to build this little utopia somewhere go right ahead, there's lots of open space in the flyover areas in the middle of the US. Maybe it will work for people that are young and unattached, that can work remotely.
 
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Offline pcprogrammer

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #38 on: March 08, 2023, 05:14:30 am »
I think what we could use are entirely new towns, just to show what is possible.

One observation to mention about this, Marco who signals with his flag to be from the Netherlands, suggests building new towns, but in the Netherlands, there is little room to do so and at the moment has mostly a building stop due to nitrogen emissions.  :-DD

Further more many inhabitants of the old countries are proud of their old cities. So good luck in getting them to renew everything to allow for full self drive vehicles to take over.

About stick versus automatic, I'm getting lazy so would not mind automatic, but our newish car is stick, so for the next so many years it is stick. Also would not mind a fully self driven car for the longer trips, but don't see the technology become mature and safe enough in the foreseeable future either.

Offline james_s

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #39 on: March 08, 2023, 05:19:58 am »
Nitrogen emissions? The air is something like 80% nitrogen, or do you mean nitrogen compounds? What does that have to do with building?

I wish they would stop building housing around where I live. The leadership is obsessed with trying to keep up with population growth by building thousands and thousands of houses and apartments, but it seems completely lost on them that due to the popularity of the region there is effectively infinite demand, the more housing they build the more people move here. Something has to be the limiting factor, as it is I used to love living here but I can hardly wait to retire and move away, it is far too crowded and I feel like the wildlife that is being crowded out of its native habitat.
 

Offline pcprogrammer

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #40 on: March 08, 2023, 05:34:17 am »
Nitrogen emissions? The air is something like 80% nitrogen, or do you mean nitrogen compounds? What does that have to do with building?

Tell that to the Dutch government.  >:D.

In the Netherlands there is this whole ordeal about farmers and the emissions of "stikstof" which translates to nitrogen. Due to the fact that the emissions are to high nature is suffering, is the argument. The little of what is left of nature is having ill effects of all these emissions. Why the building trade is suffering of it is due to the fact that the process of building also brings all sorts of emissions. Think of the vehicles for deliveries, cranes to lift things, etc.

But the controversial bit in the whole thing is that due to population growth and more and more people staying or becoming single there is the need for >100000 new homes build every year.  :-DD

P.S. the population growth is not due to birth, but due to the in stream of asylum seekers.

Offline Red Squirrel

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #41 on: March 08, 2023, 06:07:41 am »
I think the happy medium would be to have self driving corridors.  Make all highways have the infrastructure in place. Once you hit a town then you have to take over for the side streets.

The infrastructure could be as simple has having posts with transponders of sort on them or even just QR codes or other subtle markers that are easy to pickup by automation.    Ideally it should be something passive that requires no power since there is no power along most highways, at least not low voltage.   GPS on it's own is not accurate enough especially at driving speeds and required reaction times. Ex: driving 100km/h less that a foot away from other cars, civilian GPS is just not accurate enough to make that kind of judgement in real time like that.

The issue with self driving as is right now is it relies on lot of things to be perfect, such as the road being very clean, no pot holes, no snow, proper lines and signage, etc. That is not a very typical road at all. Highway 11 for example is usually snow packed, and most roads are full of potholes that you need to avoid.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #42 on: March 08, 2023, 06:26:56 am »
I think the happy medium would be to have self driving corridors.  Make all highways have the infrastructure in place. Once you hit a town then you have to take over for the side streets.

The infrastructure could be as simple has having posts with transponders of sort on them or even just QR codes or other subtle markers that are easy to pickup by automation.    Ideally it should be something passive that requires no power since there is no power along most highways, at least not low voltage.   GPS on it's own is not accurate enough especially at driving speeds and required reaction times. Ex: driving 100km/h less that a foot away from other cars, civilian GPS is just not accurate enough to make that kind of judgement in real time like that.

The issue with self driving as is right now is it relies on lot of things to be perfect, such as the road being very clean, no pot holes, no snow, proper lines and signage, etc. That is not a very typical road at all. Highway 11 for example is usually snow packed, and most roads are full of potholes that you need to avoid.

Let me know where you drive 100 km/hr one foot from other cars.  I want to avoid the area.

Afaik GPS is not used directly for guidance or navigation.  The information is melded with rate and acceleration sensors and the radar sonar and vision sensors to get an estimate of where the car is.  Much like human drivers do.  And as prior posters said, because the details are different  the successes and failures are different.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #43 on: March 08, 2023, 07:07:56 am »
Nitrogen emissions? The air is something like 80% nitrogen, or do you mean nitrogen compounds? What does that have to do with building?

It's economically suicidal limits on anything which can cause nitrogen accumulation in the soil, so NOx but also fertilizer run off and vapour (ammonia from animal manure).

For new town experiments I had countries with a little more room and a little less EU in mind.
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #44 on: March 08, 2023, 07:13:36 am »
Some of the recently-reported Tesla FSD "fails" have reinforced my opinion that the vehicles need external supporting infrastructure to operate safely - they can't do it by relying solely on their own sensors.

I've been making that public call for the last decade, and I extended that call again recently on The Amp Hour episode for another decade.
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #45 on: March 08, 2023, 07:16:23 am »
I think the happy medium would be to have self driving corridors.  Make all highways have the infrastructure in place. Once you hit a town then you have to take over for the side streets.
The infrastructure could be as simple has having posts with transponders of sort on them or even just QR codes or other subtle markers that are easy to pickup by automation.

I don't think that will ever happen.
They all can't agree on what type of charger plug to use and how you pay for it. I have no less than half dozen different EV charging app on my phone.

For self driving cars to succeed in the market they must be able to operate within existing infrastructure.
 
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Offline EEVblog

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #46 on: March 08, 2023, 07:18:40 am »
We can't even manage self-driving trains that stay on the rails, except for some small closed-circuit applications like airport trams.

Our new Sydney metro system is driverless. No issues yet that I aware of.
10 order of magnitude difference in complexity in that and what FSD needs in the real worlds though.
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #47 on: March 08, 2023, 07:20:22 am »
I've no interest at all in one that I might be expected to take over and drive if the computer sees something it can't cope with, though. The entire use case for a self driving car revolves around the fact that there are times when I can't drive it, or, by extension, take responsibility for it.

Yes, there is only downside to a system where you have to assume control at a split seconds notice. It's either 100% drunk in the back seat or it's just glorified cruise control.
 
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Offline james_s

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #48 on: March 08, 2023, 07:56:36 am »
But the controversial bit in the whole thing is that due to population growth and more and more people staying or becoming single there is the need for >100000 new homes build every year.  :-DD

P.S. the population growth is not due to birth, but due to the in stream of asylum seekers.

Perhaps they should close off the border and stop allowing them to flood in? This is something that has often bothered me, all sorts of countries have people flowing in seeking refuge from other countries. I would rather help them sort out the problems in their own country whichever that may be rather than fleeing and adding to the strain of another area.

Bottom line I guess is that the human population around the globe is massive and growing at an incredible rate. This is not sustainable and sooner or later something catastrophic is going to happen. It's relatively easy to not reproduce, I've never really understood why so many people so strongly wish to do it, and yet most of the parents I know are exhausted and miserable all the time.
 
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Offline pcprogrammer

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Re: Full-self-driving needs external infrastructure
« Reply #49 on: March 08, 2023, 08:32:37 am »
But the controversial bit in the whole thing is that due to population growth and more and more people staying or becoming single there is the need for >100000 new homes build every year.  :-DD

P.S. the population growth is not due to birth, but due to the in stream of asylum seekers.

Perhaps they should close off the border and stop allowing them to flood in? This is something that has often bothered me, all sorts of countries have people flowing in seeking refuge from other countries. I would rather help them sort out the problems in their own country whichever that may be rather than fleeing and adding to the strain of another area.

I feel the Dutch are always trying to be the "best boy in the class", but the problem is much bigger then just the Netherlands. The whole immigration and refugee mishap is being handled at EU level mostly and it is frowned upon when one country within the EU decides to close its borders for these asylum seekers.

I agree with you that it would be better to deal with it in the country of origin, but that brings a whole other can of worms. What to do with dictators and their followers that wreak havoc on others making them flee. You would have to invade and destroy them to try to rebuild a democracy and hope it will stand the test of time.

Bottom line I guess is that the human population around the globe is massive and growing at an incredible rate. This is not sustainable and sooner or later something catastrophic is going to happen. It's relatively easy to not reproduce, I've never really understood why so many people so strongly wish to do it, and yet most of the parents I know are exhausted and miserable all the time.

My feelings too. Neither me or the wife ever had the primordial desire to reproduce.  >:D

Only time will tell were it all ends up.


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