Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79301 times)

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Offline tom66Topic starter

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Does the amount of sand particularly matter - you build it once and it lasts 30 years?  You may as well complain about concrete used for nuclear reactors, as that's not zero carbon production either.

Also 7MWh / 7000 euro = 1kWh / euro,  over 100x cheaper than a Li-Ion battery...  obviously the infrastructure is not free but it seems like something worth investigating.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2022, 09:52:06 am by tom66 »
 

Offline JohanH

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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/sand-shortage-the-world-is-running-out-of-a-crucial-commodity.html

"the world consumes roughly 40 to 50 billion tons of sand on an annual basis"

"Desert sand grains, eroded by the wind rather than water, is too smooth and rounded to bind together for construction purposes."

From this it sounds like there would be no problems with sand shortage for thermal storage purposes, as you don't need the construction quality sand.
 

Offline tautech

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There is no doubt the future rests on electricity as the primary energy source however the debate is how to produce it. For the immediate need urgency is utmost for the stability of business and life therefore a policy reversal of closing coal fired generation and mining is required to provide the fastest solution in the short term before all those in northern Europe freeze this Christmas.

Then like it or not a longer term solution will be required and most probably nuclear where wisdom would place it in lesser populated areas to have it wired around the EU just as Ruskie gas is now.
Once you have endless GWhrs the modern and more efficient heating/cooling solutions can be rolled out to further reduce the reliance on fossil fuels of any type and from any source to then also satisfy the GloBull warming believers.

Yes there is a crisis, 2 actually, but which offers the more immediate danger to life as we know it ?
Hardly rocket science from where I'm sitting.  :P
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Offline dzseki

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There's thermal storage that's very cost effective for a few days. Some larger installations might be able to push it to a few weeks before insulation costs render it impractical.

There is a Finnish concept of storing heat in sand that keeps the heat for months. Currently the first product has been installed with 8 MWh capacity. It's cheap and seems to work.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520

We have been talking about this with the colleagues (engineers and physicists) the other day.
Sand has heat capacity about 1/5 of water’s, but the temperature of the sand here is 500°C, so why not just use (salted) water then?
Also heating up to 500°C screams for resistive heating which is „inefficient”. Using water you can heat up to eg. 60°C (in summer time maybe even more) with a heat pump, and only use resistive heating in the last portion until close to boiling.

BTW, here in Hungary residential users are getting 1730m^3 gas (/ year) at a very attractive price: 0.25EUR/m^3, they say this is the grand average of residential usage. Above that consumers have to pay market(like) prices.
For fun I’ve calculated that the amount of heat attained by burning 1730m^3 gas can be stored in about 180 tons of water with dT of 80°C, 180 tons of water can be stored in a cube with edge length of 5.65m which isn’t sound that insane IMO.
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Offline Bud

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You will run out of salt supply much faster than sand, imho.
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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Salt supply doesn't seem to be an issue for gritting the roads.  The sea is full of it, anyway.
 

Offline Miyuki

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There's thermal storage that's very cost effective for a few days. Some larger installations might be able to push it to a few weeks before insulation costs render it impractical.

There is a Finnish concept of storing heat in sand that keeps the heat for months. Currently the first product has been installed with 8 MWh capacity. It's cheap and seems to work.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520

We have been talking about this with the colleagues (engineers and physicists) the other day.
Sand has heat capacity about 1/5 of water’s, but the temperature of the sand here is 500°C, so why not just use (salted) water then?
Also heating up to 500°C screams for resistive heating which is „inefficient”. Using water you can heat up to eg. 60°C (in summer time maybe even more) with a heat pump, and only use resistive heating in the last portion until close to boiling.

BTW, here in Hungary residential users are getting 1730m^3 gas (/ year) at a very attractive price: 0.25EUR/m^3, they say this is the grand average of residential usage. Above that consumers have to pay market(like) prices.
For fun I’ve calculated that the amount of heat attained by burning 1730m^3 gas can be stored in about 180 tons of water with dT of 80°C, 180 tons of water can be stored in a cube with edge length of 5.65m which isn’t sound that insane IMO.
The common city heat distributing network works with relatively high temperatures of 110 – 150°C
That 60°C can be on a return line

You need that high temperature because old buildings are commonly designed with 75/55 radiators for heating
And need heat domestic hot water above 60°C to keep it from legionella

And of course, heat exchangers need some temperature gradient to work
 

Offline themadhippy

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Talk all you like about building more nuclear, filling the sahara with solar or other alternatives ,it aint gonna change anything unless its funded out the publics purse,and the energy sold to the consumers instead of via " the markets". Heres an of the wall idea for the uk goverbent ,impose a substantial  export tariff  on energy, either sell it at cost with an acceptable profit to the uk market,or sell it on the international markets  and pay 150% export duty
 
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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One factor is wind and solar providers are making bank right now, at £1000/MWh for instance which is sometimes the spot price, they are basically printing money.  Should we tax those guys, to provide more support for businesses and low incomes?
 

Offline AndyBeez

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One factor is wind and solar providers are making bank right now, at £1000/MWh for instance which is sometimes the spot price, they are basically printing money.  Should we tax those guys, to provide more support for businesses and low incomes?
@tom66, but didn't you already know that before sanctions, Europe purchased most of it's wind, rain and sunshine from Russia - along with all of it's geothermal and tidal energy? You're right, they are profiteering. Why is MY British electricity price going up when I am on a 100% green/zero carbon energy tariff? Answer, "it's the market." BS.
 
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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Well *it is* the market, there is a shortfall of gas, which means there is a shortfall of gas-generation for electricity, so prices rise to find the new point on the supply-demand curve.   That is regardless of fuel type.   There is limited elasticity in the market and so prices rise sharply with any fall in generation capacity.

That doesn't mean these generation companies are not profiting like mad, of course;  the companies that have to buy gas to generate electricity, on the other hand, are probably not doing so well.
 

Offline HobGoblyn

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Talk all you like about building more nuclear, filling the sahara with solar or other alternatives ,it aint gonna change anything unless its funded out the publics purse,and the energy sold to the consumers instead of via " the markets". Heres an of the wall idea for the uk goverbent ,impose a substantial  export tariff  on energy, either sell it at cost with an acceptable profit to the uk market,or sell it on the international markets  and pay 150% export duty

Stop talking sense, my mind can’t take it
 
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Offline tszaboo

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Talk all you like about building more nuclear, filling the sahara with solar or other alternatives ,it aint gonna change anything unless its funded out the publics purse,and the energy sold to the consumers instead of via " the markets". Heres an of the wall idea for the uk goverbent ,impose a substantial  export tariff  on energy, either sell it at cost with an acceptable profit to the uk market,or sell it on the international markets  and pay 150% export duty
Yeah, I was just seeing the other day, that Germany increased the import of Dutch gas in the past year.
I mean thanks I guess? My heating bill goes up 90% this year (even without using gas) but at least Shell and others had their extra profit selling it abroad. I also sleep well, because only the North part of the country is going to sink into the ocean because of this.
 

Offline james_s

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You will run out of salt supply much faster than sand, imho.

I think running out of salt is extremely unlikely. Something like 2/3 of the surface of the earth is covered in water, a majority of that containing lots of salt.
 

Online SiliconWizard

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So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head?  ::)
 

Offline tautech

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So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head?  ::)
Not without some strong messages from citizens to Gubbermints to pull their heads outta their arse and start running the country like adults.
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Offline Gyro

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So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head?  ::)

The problem is that it needs to a global reset, partial resets lead to various 'components' being in unknown states - the s/w can get very confused!
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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Is a home battery and solar system worthwhile now?

So I took the solar data from my location which I got from Solcast API (https://solcast.com/).  I then fit this against a reasonably pessimistic model of a 4kWp solar system on an ideal roof orientation. The system is modelled to generate 3,970kWh per year which is about average.

The Python script takes the insolation data, calculates solar generated in half-hourly intervals, and models battery charge and discharge.  If there's a shortfall in the first iteration (it appears that there is insufficient solar for that day) it adds additional charging during an off peak period (currently set to 2:30 am to 6:30 am, though it could vary.)  This is a little inefficient as it should aim to top the battery up in full by the end of the off peak, probably by varying charge current.

This is a very simplistic algorithm, I haven't attempted to add in any kind of iterative solution solver to improve upon the "first iteration".  I'm reasonably sure that if you know, or can estimate, the sun and cloud cover for tomorrow, and have a model of daily load and know the starting state, that it's possible to perfectly calculate charging times needed.  For now, I make a very simplistic optimisation: if the projected solar energy for that day is insufficient, I charge a number of 30 minute slots in that off peak period.  The reality is that there are a few days where the energy from the day before is actually enough that this charging is not necessary.  But it is better to over-estimate expenditure than to under-estimate it.

The results are very interesting (to me, at least!) because they justify such a system rather easily.

Assumptions:
- Sun is similar to 2021-2022 season in any given year
- Panel efficiency 20%, panel area 20m^2
- On peak cost of 60p/kWh, off peak cost of 15p/kWh (assuming the 'Octopus Go' sweetheart rate does not remain forever at 7.5p/kWh)
- Off peak charging time available is 4 hours (charge rate ~3kW)
- Daily usage of 12kWh electricity excluding EV (charged in off peak period) and no heat pump
- Daily usage is assuming timed high loads can be shifted into off peak (e.g. dishwasher, tumble dryer) - in other words, it is the "unshiftable" demand
- Battery size 9.5kWh (GivEnergy LiFePO4) with charge efficiency 91%
- Battery does not require heater in winter (mount in insulated garage >5C year round)
- The 5kW output of the battery is enough to cover ~98% of usage and therefore I don't need to account for forced grid use here

Pre-system cost is £2,591
Post-system cost is £273

Yes, it saves nearly £2,300 per year for an ordinary user - or about the same as the price cap will rise by this year for both electricity and gas.  If the system costs £10k, then it pays back within 4.5 years.

In addition to the 'savings', it contributes 911kWh of energy into the EV battery in the case when there is too much sun that day to go into the home battery. (This assumes that all of this can be used.  Probably it could also be diverted into the hot water tank or something else if needed.)  That's around 3,000 miles of 'emissions and cost free' driving.

If I change the parameters somewhat:
- Off peak 30p/kWh, on peak 90p/kWh

Pre-system cost is £3,917
Post-system cost is £535
Saving £3,382

Reflecting a short term high price but still a low off peak price.

A payback time of under 3 years.

However, if the off peak price rises considerably, say:
- Off peak 60p/kWh, on peak 90p/kWh

Pre-system cost is £4,040
Post-system cost is £1,036
Saving £3,004

Surprised me that the benefits are still there.  It's really all down to the solar.  The off-peak is nice, but the solar is *great*.

Now let's assume things return to 'normal':
- Off peak 6p/kWh, on peak 17p/kWh

Pre-system cost is £699
Post-system cost is £106
Saving £593

As can be seen, the savings vanish if the on peak price is low.  The payback time is going over 15 years in this case, well beyond the warranty of the battery.  Perhaps it would make more sense if there was a heat pump, with high daily consumption, though extra batteries would likely be required. The pre-cost does not include any benefit in the summer from EV charging which may change the maths a little bit, but probably not substantially.

I have attached the script in Python if anyone is interested in playing around with it.  The solar data can be fetched from Solcast, you will need to sign up for a trial account and input your address to get solar data.

Now to convince the other half to spend £10k on this kit ... that may be the biggest challenge!

Attached outputs are for the 60p/15p scenario.
 

Offline tautech

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Is a home battery and solar system worthwhile now?
In the current climate certainly as it provides some insulation against all the energy supply uncertainty.
Your call as to the value you might put on that.

Edit to add
We have a solar powered data relay 'high site' installation with just three 300W panels in series for maintaining SLA's in a 24V series/parallel 4 battery installation of some 320Ahr capacity and my in just 2 1/2 years logging shows 1.5 MW of solar energy poked into the batteries......that's a lot of energy for free other than the initial investment.....ROI is entirely another matter as no other energy source was available at this remote location ~1km from the grid.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2022, 11:25:18 pm by tautech »
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Online Marco

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If electricity prices become high enough for long enough to earn back a battery in short order, I'm afraid society in its current form will collapse. So rather than a battery you should invest in emigration. I'm going down with the ship though.
 

Offline james_s

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We have a solar powered data relay 'high site' installation with just three 300W panels in series for maintaining SLA's in a 24V series/parallel 4 battery installation of some 320Ahr capacity and my in just 2 1/2 years logging shows 1.5 MW of solar energy poked into the batteries......that's a lot of energy for free other than the initial investment.....ROI is entirely another matter as no other energy source was available at this remote location ~1km from the grid.

1.5 MWh sounds like a lot of power, but it's only around $150 worth of electricity in my region. Of course as you point out, in this application there are not a lot of viable alternatives, so you'd have to compare the cost vs running 1km of cable to the grid.
 

Offline Someone

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Surprised me that the benefits are still there.  It's really all down to the solar.  The off-peak is nice, but the solar is *great*.
Which makes the numbers a little misleading calling it a costing of a "battery", when its mostly just the costing of solar generation. If you want to separate out battery from solar, it should compare the cost/profit of a battery to selling solar power back into the grid (including regulatory/compliance costs etc) and/or a zero export inverter (dump excess production).
 

Offline nctnico

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Is a home battery and solar system worthwhile now?

The numbers look very optimistic. Try to work out how much total storage capacity the battery has and see if that covers your usage scenario. Last time I checked a Tesla powerwall is quite expensive per kWh stored (IIRC somewhere between 0.3 and 0.5 euro per kWh). The warranty of the Tesla powerwall is pretty clear on the total amount of energy it can store over it's useful life.

The Tesla powerwall has a total storage capacity of 37.8MWh with a capacity of 13.5kWh. Your proposed battery is smaller. With 12kWh a day you are at 4.6MWh per year. Extrapolating the Tesla numbers with your smaller battery gives a total storage capacity of 26.6MWh. So your battery will be worn after 5.8 years and costs about 10p per kWh.

Another issue I see is that the battery can deliver only about 4kW of power; that could be insufficient for an entire home.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2022, 02:08:46 am by nctnico »
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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The GivEnergy batteries are limited to 3.6kW discharge, so it may struggle to keep up with cooking loads, but the majority of loads in the household are continuous, low power (fridge, computers, lighting etc.)  So I suppose if it doesn't keep up with cooking + microwave at the same time that's not ideal but not a disaster, it's grid-tie so it will cap at 3.6kW and remainder will come in as on peak energy.

Also 9.5kWh is the net capacity as the pack can be used to 100% DoD, but the sums actually still work quite well even with say 7kWh capacity. The saving is less, of course.  Interestingly though there's little benefit in going much beyond 12kWh.

The thing is, you don't need to cover your whole usage if you have solar: even on a winter's day, the array might add 1-2kWh to the pack, so a 9.5kWh pack can extend to 11.5kWh of effective usage.  The scenarios show on winter days there's some grid on-peak usage, but it's a tiny fraction of overall usage.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2022, 08:29:33 am by tom66 »
 

Offline tautech

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We have a solar powered data relay 'high site' installation with just three 300W panels in series for maintaining SLA's in a 24V series/parallel 4 battery installation of some 320Ahr capacity and my in just 2 1/2 years logging shows 1.5 MW of solar energy poked into the batteries......that's a lot of energy for free other than the initial investment.....ROI is entirely another matter as no other energy source was available at this remote location ~1km from the grid.

1.5 MWh sounds like a lot of power, but it's only around $150 worth of electricity in my region. Of course as you point out, in this application there are not a lot of viable alternatives, so you'd have to compare the cost vs running 1km of cable to the grid.
A little story if I may....
A school buddy and corporate accountant was tasked with improving a local general waste company's bottom line and as he was stationed in an office at their landfill, sealing, capping and capturing the methane for supplying 1 MW gensets was costed out in great detail and calculations for the ROI which because they need almost build a substation to which connect the the NZ national grid resulted in a zero ROI once all costs were accounted for.
Not deterred in the slightest he presented his work to their Board of Directors in person for them to finally ask why on earth should they even consider such a zero ROI venture.
This was some 20 years ago however I remember it well as the bottom line still applies and even more so today; the figures were/are calculated on today's energy prices and explain to me when your household power bill has not had an annual increase !

Several million was assigned to the project and as each year passed the forecasted ROI was exceeded.
Last I heard the were 4 or 5 one MW methane powered Cat gensets dealing to the landfill methane emissions and as luck would have it GloBull warming legislation came along for the power gen installation to also earn them carbon credits !  :scared:
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