Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79293 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline jonpaul

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3656
  • Country: fr
  • Analog, magnetics, Power, HV, Audio, Cinema
    • IEEE Spectrum
So called climate crisis caused by decades of UK, Germany, EU and US politique against nuclear, oli, frackin, pipelines, refinerys.

That madness opened the door to Putin's stranglehold on Western énergie supply.

The instant solution.... go off grid, get your own solar, backup generator, flee the extreme  left controlled cities and states.

With Putin's energy war, our governments are surrendering.


j

PS notice that the most extreme climate nuts like AOL or John Kerry,  seem to have no problem with private jets, limousines,....

Enjoy,

Jon
An Internet Dinosaur...
 

Online tautech

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 29812
  • Country: nz
  • Taupaki Technologies Ltd. Siglent Distributor NZ.
    • Taupaki Technologies Ltd.
With Putin's energy war, our governments are surrendering.
:-DD
They did that back in February !
Avid Rabid Hobbyist.
Some stuff seen @ Siglent HQ cannot be shared.
 
The following users thanked this post: Ed.Kloonk

Offline tszaboo

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 8218
  • Country: nl
  • Current job: ATEX product design
Is a home battery and solar system worthwhile now?
To give you a data point: I spent 5KEUR on my solar system, got back about 800EUR tax, with about 700EUR/year expected revenue. This would mean a flat ROI of 6 years.
The price of electricity went up by 80% in my case, so the system would generate about 1250 EUR/year, and have a ROI of 3 year 6 months.
Also, redelivery rate went from something 9 cents/kWh to 30 cents. I regret not getting the biggest system that would fit on my roof now, because even just selling electricity at those prices, and using nothing has a ROI of ~5 years insted of 15.
There is still ~9 cents/kWh difference between sold and bought energy, so I'm not sure if a battery system would be worth it. Since we have net metering here, it's not. Let's say it's not.
Marco Reps had this 5kWh LiFEPo battery in his last video for 2000 EUR, which I noted down to be great price/performance at the time. And he is good, watch his videos. That cycled 1000 times would be only worth 450 EUR of difference in electricity price. Or ROI with 4400 cycles, which is questionable, and too long.
 
The following users thanked this post: tom66

Offline tom66Topic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7336
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics Hobbyist & FPGA/Embedded Systems EE
Here, the difference between buy and sell is about 50%. 

A static price of 7.5p/kWh using the 'SEG' tariff, well below the import cost, or a variable price of between 20-50p/kWh using 'Agile Outgoing'.  Some older systems get very good feed-in tariff rates but those aren't available any more.

So there is some benefit if you can arbitrage on the variable pricing too, but yes the lifespan of the battery must be accounted for as this will essentially add to the per kWh.  A good LiFePO4 pack should do 2000 cycles to 80% capacity, but that assumes 100% DoD, which would only apply in winter.  In summer the battery might only vary by 30-40% DoD.

What's clear to me is that while there isn't a guarantee that these systems will pay off their cost I would say it is a greater than 80% probability.  The near-term forecast for gas is not great.  The earliest the lost gas from Russia might be replaced by is 2026, and still then that is somewhat optimistic.  There is some benefit in getting old nuke plants going and maybe even using coal temporarily, but if the plants are mothballed it could take years to come online.

I really do think Germany and the EU have dropped the ball here.  I would love to see what the planning for lost Russian gas was, because it looked like it was "not planned"!

I have wondered how worthwhile building a battery bank is, versus buying one.  A 9.5kWh system without solar is £6k incl VAT.  I added up the cost of batteries and it's close to £3k so maybe cheaper but with no warranty and all the system design/test/build done by myself, it may come close to that cost.  Also if it's grid tied then there are compliance issues with the DNO (network operator).

edit: typo
« Last Edit: August 27, 2022, 12:24:47 pm by tom66 »
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 28429
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
I really do think Germany and the EU have dropped the ball here.  I would love to see what the planning for lost Russian gas was, because it looked like it was "not planned"!

It is mostly Germany that is in a pickle. For some reason they find that using natural gas is the best solution to reduce CO2 emissions  :-//  Maybe they got influenced by a lobby originating from Russia or so. And it is not like they where not warned; the US protested heavily against the second pipeline including putting sanctions into place. Then again, who took anything coming from the Trump administration serious?

Quote
I have wondered how worthwhile building a battery bank is, worth buying one.  A 9.5kWh system without solar is £6k incl VAT.
I strongly recommend against that. Making a good, reliable battery pack takes a lot of effort. I have been involved with that myself in the startup phase of a battery manufacturer. Nowadays they have a large team of engineers. Battery manufacturers typically test & match cells before putting them into a battery. Also the BMS needs to have all kinds of safety features to protect the cells. Last but not least, the battery pack is also certified for safety. If your home-brew battery pack catches fire, the insurance will not cover the damages. Also think about what happens if you sell the house. A home-brew battery will be frowned upon and a smart buyer won't accept it. All in all it is not worth the trouble.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7336
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics Hobbyist & FPGA/Embedded Systems EE
I strongly recommend against that. Making a good, reliable battery pack takes a lot of effort. I have been involved with that myself in the startup phase of a battery manufacturer. Nowadays they have a large team of engineers. Battery manufacturers typically test & match cells before putting them into a battery. Also the BMS needs to have all kinds of safety features to protect the cells. Last but not least, the battery pack is also certified for safety. If your home-brew battery pack catches fire, the insurance will not cover the damages. Also think about what happens if you sell the house. A home-brew battery will be frowned upon and a smart buyer won't accept it. All in all it is not worth the trouble.

Yeah, absolutely, that's my thought pattern too.  While I'd only use LiFePO4 (I am absolutely not the guy to take apart thousands of laptop batteries to harvest 18650s, I think those people are god-damn insane) I still can imagine it would be rather expensive and difficult even with all off-the-shelf bits.  I'd never have the willingness to put it near my house, so it'd go on the outbuilding instead, which would mean it's subject to weather, whereas a proper system could be built in the house.   Altogether, it does look a lot cheaper to do it professionally, which is odd, but I don't mind!
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 28429
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
The reason the battery manufacturer I was involved in is succesful is because the Chinese don't manage to make reliable battery packs using the off-the-shelve bits.  8) Their business model is simple: make better battery packs compared to what you can buy in China.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 9323
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
If your home-brew battery pack catches fire, the insurance will not cover the damages.
You could put it in a shed or outdoor enclosure a distance from the house. If it catches fire, no big loss other than the battery itself. Or put it in the garage and install fire sprinklers.
Quote
Also think about what happens if you sell the house. A home-brew battery will be frowned upon and a smart buyer won't accept it.
Take it with you or sell it separately.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7336
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics Hobbyist & FPGA/Embedded Systems EE
Fire sprinklers against a Li-Ion battery fire is like trying to put out the Hindenberg with buckets and sand.  That said, putting it on an outbuilding is not too bad, provided you are OK with the cost of losing that building if all goes wrong.

If you want to see some horror stories look at the DIY Powerwall groups on Facebook et al.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 28429
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Fire sprinklers against a Li-Ion battery fire is like trying to put out the Hindenberg with buckets and sand.  That said, putting it on an outbuilding is not too bad, provided you are OK with the cost of losing that building if all goes wrong.
Yup. At some point I visited a company that does battery certifications. They put cheap cabins outside for any battery testing work. They learned that the hard way after a fire which caused a lot of damage to their main building.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 9323
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
Fire sprinklers against a Li-Ion battery fire is like trying to put out the Hindenberg with buckets and sand.  That said, putting it on an outbuilding is not too bad, provided you are OK with the cost of losing that building if all goes wrong.
The intent of the fire sprinklers is to prevent the building itself from catching fire. And the cost of a rainproof box isn't much.

Or go for a more stable chemistry like LiFePO4 or the various chemistries used in EV batteries.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7336
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics Hobbyist & FPGA/Embedded Systems EE
That seems to be the issue.  DIY LiFePO4 is almost as expensive as professional LiFePO4.  If you want a cheap home made power-wall you need to do it with Li-Ion from recycled batteries for the cost to make sense, but now you've basically attached firecrackers to your home/outbuilding/etc.  So you'd better be OK with that risk.  And it's not just rainproofing, it's temperature.  Most Li-Ion cells can't be reliably charged below 0C, LiFePO4 can be but efficiency and charge rate reduces so really best to have somewhere that can benefit from space heating (even if it's just keeping the room above 5C or so)
 

Online NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 9323
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
That seems to be the issue.  DIY LiFePO4 is almost as expensive as professional LiFePO4.
EV battery modules are cheap and considerably safer than the random 18650s used in cheap consumer products.
https://batteryhookup.com/products/lg-36v-7-9kwh-lithium-ion-ev-module
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Online Marco

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7044
  • Country: nl
Welding up a corten steel enclosure and putting some insulation on the inside plus some automatic fans/heaters is cheap if your time is free. For a hobbyist with a large property, DIY'ing it doesn't seem risky to me.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 28429
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Welding up a corten steel enclosure and putting some insulation on the inside plus some automatic fans/heaters is cheap if your time is free. For a hobbyist with a large property, DIY'ing it doesn't seem risky to me.
Steel enclosure with flammable content = big bomb  Remember that a battery doesn't need oxigen to release it's energy. Grid storage batteries are specifically designed to spit the flames out of the top instead of to the sides.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2022, 02:26:24 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7336
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics Hobbyist & FPGA/Embedded Systems EE
Steel enclosure with flammable content = big bomb  Remember that a battery doesn't need oxigen to release it's energy. Grid storage batteries are specifically designed to spit the flames out of the top instead of to the sides.

Mmm...


And then you see people build these...


A single cell that's at end of life suddenly decides to go short.  No cell level fusing, no intumescent coating, no cooling or heating, and all cells are different.   It doesn't take much to guess what's going to happen with these packs.

It is a recipe for disaster.  Containing a fire like that is near impossible.  Only solution is to get the fire brigade in and cool it down.  So not so much of a problem if it is far away from anything valuable, but NO WAY would it go anywhere on or near my home.
 

Online Marco

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7044
  • Country: nl
Steel enclosure with flammable content = big bomb
You don't make it tight or hermetic.
Quote
Grid storage batteries are specifically designed to spit the flames out of the top
It doesn't take rocket science to accomplish that. Put on a wooden lid, that's where the flames will go too with a DIY steel enclosure. Then you can fill it with water from a distance.

As I said, with a large property it's not a problem, just put it away from anything flammable.
 

Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1381
  • Country: us
So your battery shack catches fire. The batteries are destroyed and the contents are spilled. How much for the toxic waste cleanup?
Are you legally responsible for the pollution, or will John Kerry help you out?
 

Offline Siwastaja

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 9336
  • Country: fi
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity?

If you say "powered by X", how am I supposed to interpret this? I see no other way than: "all of the output power comes from X", or maybe "most of the output power comes from X". If this is what you mean, then sorry, you are completely wrong.

Heatpumps are not "powered by electricity", this is a total misunderstanding of what heatpumps do. They NEED some electricity, but that's a different thing.

Look at the energy flow. Energy output produced by a heatpump is originally solar energy, seasonally stored in the heat capacity of the planet (soil + atmosphere). So heatpump-powered house is heated BY SOLAR. Not "by electricity".

Now sure, PART of that output energy is from electricity, no way around that. But the key is, this part is small, especially in Middle European conditions.

So by installing a heatpump, you reduce your fossil fuel consumption to maybe one third, because you add a new renewable energy harvester.

Sure, somewhere you might have electricity crisis but no gas crisis. In such case, heat pump might not instantly work out. It's still the right thing to do.

But now Europe is facing shortage of both electricity and natural gas, so heatpump will be an obvious choice, because it reduces energy consumption so significantly.

It's really fundamentally very close to EV vs. gasoline car. EV will put more burden on the grid, but in the big picture still the right thing to do because energy consumption is reduced to 1/4th.

The magic of heatpump is in two things:
1) affordable price
2) built-in seasonal storage

Compare to PV. Say you have to pay 5000€ to get a 3000-4000kWh/year PV installation. And it produces very little during the coldest 2-3 months.

A heatpump? You get one (typical air source unit) installed for maybe 1500€. It will extract the same 3000-4000kWh/year of solar energy, and even better, it can still extract it during the coldest, darkest months. Curve of production capability vs. demand is not perfect, but better than PV. Price per harvested energy is a lot better than PV.

So if you have to choose between PV and heatpumps, choose heatpumps first. PV is of course great, too.

Always look at energy first. Everything else is details.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2022, 04:38:42 pm by Siwastaja »
 
The following users thanked this post: tom66

Offline madires

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 8276
  • Country: de
  • A qualified hobbyist ;)
Air-water heat pumps usually come with a large heating element as back-up in case the outside air temperature is too low. For a classic single-family home the heating element is about 10kW. Based on where you live you'll need the heating element for some days in the winter. Another thing to know is that heat pumps can be switched remotely in Germany (via a dedicated power meter) to prevent grid overloads.
 

Offline tszaboo

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 8218
  • Country: nl
  • Current job: ATEX product design
The earliest the lost gas from Russia might be replaced by is 2026, and still then that is somewhat optimistic.
If you assume that Russia will not be more than Moscow and some area around it, and we would be buying the gas from the newly formed countries.

Steel enclosure with flammable content = big bomb
You don't make it tight or hermetic.
Quote
Grid storage batteries are specifically designed to spit the flames out of the top
It doesn't take rocket science to accomplish that. Put on a wooden lid, that's where the flames will go too with a DIY steel enclosure. Then you can fill it with water from a distance.

As I said, with a large property it's not a problem, just put it away from anything flammable.
If you ever saw a battery catch on fire, you will understand why it's a bad idea to play around with them.

A heatpump? You get one (typical air source unit) installed for maybe 1500€. It will extract the same 3000-4000kWh/year of solar energy, and even better, it can still extract it during the coldest, darkest months. Curve of production capability vs. demand is not perfect, but better than PV. Price per harvested energy is a lot better than PV.
I guess you are talking about air to air heatpumps. Air to water is closer to 5-6000 EUR, and your home heating system must be compatible with low temperature radiators. Which mine is not.
Plus I never saw one that would be integrated with district heating. Must be rocket science or something. If someone knows one, please post it I'm interested.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 28429
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Plus I never saw one that would be integrated with district heating. Must be rocket science or something. If someone knows one, please post it I'm interested.
That is quite easy. Just add a 3 way valve that chooses the incoming water from the heatpump (which then forms a local loop) or from the district heating. You can automate this with an outdoor temperature sensor from which the 3 way valve and heatpump are controlled.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2022, 05:30:12 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online wraper

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 17952
  • Country: lv
Plus I never saw one that would be integrated with district heating. Must be rocket science or something. If someone knows one, please post it I'm interested.
That is quite easy. Just add a 3 way valve that chooses the incoming water from the heatpump (which then forms a local loop) or from the district heating. You can automate this with an outdoor temperature sensor from which the 3 way valve and heatpump are controlled.
I'm pretty sure this would be illegal.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 28429
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Plus I never saw one that would be integrated with district heating. Must be rocket science or something. If someone knows one, please post it I'm interested.
That is quite easy. Just add a 3 way valve that chooses the incoming water from the heatpump (which then forms a local loop) or from the district heating. You can automate this with an outdoor temperature sensor from which the 3 way valve and heatpump are controlled.
I'm pretty sure this would be illegal.
No. Why would that be? I have district heating as well and after the meter, the installation is mine to do with as I please for as long as I pay for the energy I used from the district heating.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2022, 05:49:56 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline BravoV

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7549
  • Country: 00
  • +++ ATH1
So we are suffering for nothing  :palm:.

I prefer to suffer in solidarity with Ukraine!
If I'm going to suffer for some purpose, at least I expect some result from it. I don't see and don't expect any as far as things are going.

Say you're willingly and sincerely going to suffer in solidarity with Ukraine, next questions are ..

 - For how long ? As Belgium's PM said just now that EU countries will be difficult for 5 to 10 years !  :o

 - For how low you're willing to go on your living quality compared to current one, for example degraded into poverty maybe ?

This 10 minutes commentary summed up the current situation (as fact) that pretty darn well, and also with a prediction what to come. (PS : This duo's videos predictions are pretty sharp and on spot since last two years on geopolitics, especially in Europe).

Highly recommended.



Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf