Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79274 times)

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Offline voltsandjolts

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So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head?  ::)

Nah, this is just an energy crisis, which should hopefully give renewable energy a good boost. The Great Reset will happen when crops fail on a global scale year after year due to climate change, of which we are only just beginning to see the milder effects now. But fear not, impending disaster is more or less locked in and the Great Reset will arrive.
 
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Offline nctnico

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That is not true. Over here quite a low of people used to have electric water heaters (big drums with water) that where switched on during the night when electricity is cheaper and deliver hot water during the day. The remote control was done through modulating a signal on top of the 50Hz by the power company. This technology is from the 1960's or so. Nowadays it is no longer supported by most of the electricity suppliers because the use of these boilers has diminished. But nevertheless: the technology exists for a long time. AFAIK modulating a tone onto mains is or has been used for street lights as well.

We have this too for night storage heaters. However, this stuff is phased out and we're pushed to go for heat pumps. BTW, I was talking about controlling multiple loads individually.
Aha. The latter wasn't clear to me. IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions. Where I live, running the washing machine during the night is not done due to the noise.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2022, 07:58:18 pm by nctnico »
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Offline JohanH

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My heat pump has a "smart" function so it is able to monitor prices and run when it's cheapest, but I haven't used it because we have never had really affordable night tariffs here. Now if batteries were cheaper...
 

Online tautech

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IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions.
If energy supply is to get as tight as predicted for the European winter there may be no other options as a result of the short lead time.
If you get the warm wet winter we have as a result of the stratosphere contamination from the Tonga eruption Europe may have dodged that bullet, at least for this winter but even another year isn't time enough to reduce energy usage enough for prices to stabilize and start a move to more efficient devices.

Your only hope is for adults to start taking control and making decisions with vision.
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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I've already bought a UPS.  The government says there won't be blackouts and shortages of electricity due to the gas crisis -- so maybe I should have bought three.
 
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Offline Nusa

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The whole Nord Stream 2 sanctions ban is really shooting Germany in the foot right now. They should reverse themselves and approve that pipeline so that Russia can't use Nord Stream 1 maintenance issues as an excuse when there's a complete working parallel pipeline just sitting there. Russia can still do what it wants, of course, but it's calling their bluff on the reasons.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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I don't see the point in opening NS2.

Russia will use whatever excuse they want.  They could say "their FUK-U unit is faulty" and therefore they can't pump more than 15%.  They're actively refusing delivery of turbines, claiming that they are blocked by sanctions.  They'll find an excuse.  Opening NS2 gives them more leverage if anything.
 
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Offline nctnico

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IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions.
If energy supply is to get as tight as predicted for the European winter there may be no other options as a result of the short lead time.
If you get the warm wet winter we have as a result of the stratosphere contamination from the Tonga eruption Europe may have dodged that bullet, at least for this winter but even another year isn't time enough to reduce energy usage enough for prices to stabilize and start a move to more efficient devices.

Your only hope is for adults to start taking control and making decisions with vision.
There are a whole bunch of coal and nuclear plants sitting idle or near idle that are or can be fired up more or again. Also, the Netherland is sitting on a crapload of gas (IOW: the second largest gas field ever discovered). A large part of the shortage is artificial.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2022, 09:45:32 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline langwadt

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IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions.
If energy supply is to get as tight as predicted for the European winter there may be no other options as a result of the short lead time.
If you get the warm wet winter we have as a result of the stratosphere contamination from the Tonga eruption Europe may have dodged that bullet, at least for this winter but even another year isn't time enough to reduce energy usage enough for prices to stabilize and start a move to more efficient devices.

Your only hope is for adults to start taking control and making decisions with vision.
There are a whole bunch of coal and nuclear plants sitting idle or near idle that are or can be fired up more or again.

afaiu half the French nuclear plants are idle at the moment because there is not enough water for cooling
 

Online tautech

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IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions.
If energy supply is to get as tight as predicted for the European winter there may be no other options as a result of the short lead time.
If you get the warm wet winter we have as a result of the stratosphere contamination from the Tonga eruption Europe may have dodged that bullet, at least for this winter but even another year isn't time enough to reduce energy usage enough for prices to stabilize and start a move to more efficient devices.

Your only hope is for adults to start taking control and making decisions with vision.
There are a whole bunch of coal and nuclear plants sitting idle or near idle that are or can be fired up more or again. Also, the Netherland is sitting on a crapload of gas (IOW: the second largest gas field ever discovered). A large part of the shortage is artificial.
That's nice, all that's needed now is decisions to be made by adults.
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Some stuff seen @ Siglent HQ cannot be shared.
 

Offline Marco

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Russia will use whatever excuse they want.
Up to a point, the the EU doesn't want to get cut off, but Russia doesn't want to get secondary sanctioned by Biden either. It's a dance.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Yes, I suppose it is an interesting question.  Who blinks first?

- EU backs down and reduces sanctions and allows Russian gas back in... How much does it take for Putin to turn the taps on?  I would imagine a substantial withdrawal of EU support to Ukraine, and nearly all sanctions being lifted, is the price.

- Or Russia decides to withdraw from Ukraine as they are not achieving their aims (e.g. losing Kherson could really hit morale; a strike to the Crimean bridge may further dent it.)  This however puts Putin's position in serious jeopardy so I expect would only happen if there was mass rebellion in the Russian state services (FSB, GRU) which seems... unlikely.

Already I am hearing comments from people in the EU that they don't believe the pain of a cold winter/economic slump is worth it for Ukraine.  But, even if the EU withdraws aid, I expect UK and USA will continue significant aid, and so far it has been the US who have been the most useful in the war. 

I could see EU compromising and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.  Not a defeat for either side but implicitly acknowledging the dependence of Russian gas for the EU.  Hopefully in the meantime they continue with their degasification project and remove this influence altogether, but somehow I doubt it will be all that quick.
 

Offline BravoV

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Meanwhile in Poland people are waiting for days in queue for coal.




... according to Google in German.


Offline james_s

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But fear not, impending disaster is more or less locked in and the Great Reset will arrive.

That's the thing I wonder about actually. As I recall, even the most optimistic data says that we are essentially screwed, the time to prevent global climate change was 100+ years ago, it's too late now to do anything about it. So is there any point in putting great effort into doing so? Or would we be better served by working on ways to mitigate the effects?
 

Offline james_s

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You can install air to air heatpumps yourself in the UK if they use propane, which some systems use although they seem to be uncommon now.

Anything using fluorinated gases requires training, which is about £1,000 to do, but probably cheaper than paying an air con tech.  But I can't bemoan anyone wanting to charge for their labour!

About 18 years ago I was able to take a course online and pay a small fee, I think it was around $35 to get licensed. As it turned out, nobody has ever actually asked to see my license, even the refrigerant dealers that say you need one for them to sell you the stuff. Can you not buy the equipment online there?
 

Offline tszaboo

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I could see EU compromising and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.  Not a defeat for either side but implicitly acknowledging the dependence of Russian gas for the EU.  Hopefully in the meantime they continue with their degasification project and remove this influence altogether, but somehow I doubt it will be all that quick.
And there was a toilet paper shortage not that long ago, artificially created, and done by mass hysteria.
The russians have a name for these people, it's UI or useful idiots.
We are prepared, the gas storage in Germany is 80% full, and it's enough for months. The only loosing method for us is to change policies. Otherwise let the Ukranians and Lockheed Martin and the others take care of the situation.
I'm not sure about the UK though. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.
 
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Offline JohanH

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Meanwhile in Finland there are no gas or coal heated houses. There are about half a million heated with electricity (which is not good). Only about 130 000-150 000 oil heated houses left and they are replaced rapidly with heat pumps. According to statistics, in the first half of 2022, heat pump sales grew 105% and heat pumps are now used for 20% of all heating in the country (and increasing). Ground source heat pumps in MW size are also installed in large buildings, like apartment houses, service buildings and for district heating. Many apartment houses also install exhaust air heat pumps, which can save up to 50% of heating costs.

Last year it was calculated that in 2030, the amount of heat pumps will have doubled and will be used for 30% of heating in Finland. This number will most likely be much larger, due to the rapid increase the first half of 2022 (and if the trend continues).
 

Offline madires

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My heat pump has a "smart" function so it is able to monitor prices and run when it's cheapest, but I haven't used it because we have never had really affordable night tariffs here. Now if batteries were cheaper...

Another smart function is to adapt the heat pump's power usage to what the PV system on the roof generates.
 

Offline langwadt

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I could see EU compromising and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.  Not a defeat for either side but implicitly acknowledging the dependence of Russian gas for the EU.  Hopefully in the meantime they continue with their degasification project and remove this influence altogether, but somehow I doubt it will be all that quick.
And there was a toilet paper shortage not that long ago, artificially created, and done by mass hysteria.
The russians have a name for these people, it's UI or useful idiots.
We are prepared, the gas storage in Germany is 80% full, and it's enough for months. The only loosing method for us is to change policies. Otherwise let the Ukranians and Lockheed Martin and the others take care of the situation.
I'm not sure about the UK though. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.

afaiu UK screwed themselves by only having gas storage for a few (winter) days
 

Offline tszaboo

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Meanwhile in Finland there are no gas or coal heated houses. There are about half a million heated with electricity (which is not good). Only about 130 000-150 000 oil heated houses left and they are replaced rapidly with heat pumps. According to statistics, in the first half of 2022, heat pump sales grew 105% and heat pumps are now used for 20% of all heating in the country (and increasing). Ground source heat pumps in MW size are also installed in large buildings, like apartment houses, service buildings and for district heating. Many apartment houses also install exhaust air heat pumps, which can save up to 50% of heating costs.

Last year it was calculated that in 2030, the amount of heat pumps will have doubled and will be used for 30% of heating in Finland. This number will most likely be much larger, due to the rapid increase the first half of 2022 (and if the trend continues).
Well here they are making a policy to only be able to buy heat pumps instead of gas boilers from 2026. Which of course had an immediate political backlash from everyone, because the system is more expensive. Even though the plan is to give like 30-40% subsidy. It's impossible to deal with these sort of people, it doesn't matter that the systems have a ROI in 2-3 years now. Like for real, you can take out a 10 year renewable loan for it, get 30-40% subsidy, finance 110% of the remaining, and pay immediately less money, and yet they are complaining.

Also if you mention heat pump, no Dutch person will think about air conditioning. If I go to the website of any HVAC company, it will be a different category. I guess it's the lack of awareness which is the biggest issue. Also no subsidy for air conditioning, because... Well because it would make sense, and that's not what governments do.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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And there was a toilet paper shortage not that long ago, artificially created, and done by mass hysteria.
The russians have a name for these people, it's UI or useful idiots.
We are prepared, the gas storage in Germany is 80% full, and it's enough for months. The only loosing method for us is to change policies. Otherwise let the Ukranians and Lockheed Martin and the others take care of the situation.
I'm not sure about the UK though. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.

To be clear I'm fully in support of Ukraine and if it means high gas prices, so be it.  However I know the average person in the UK may be lucky to have £100 to their name by the end of the month - they simply cannot afford a £500/m energy bill.  Therefore I wonder if the resolve in Europe and UK will begin to crumble.

If, indeed, it is just a short term hike in prices, and in a year or two things return to normal, then I think it could be managed. Support can be given to those on the lowest incomes, and businesses will just have to be frugal with gas.  Inevitably there will be some economic shrinkage, but I don't think it will be a total disaster as some have predicted.

However, if the war in Ukraine drags on for half a decade, as some have suggested, then it becomes a lot more existential for the EU.  The absolute earliest Germany will have enough LNG *terminals* is 2027 and there's an even longer lead time on the ships.

The UK is currently bringing the Rough storage facility back online but still we will have under a month of storage.  However we do have three LNG terminals, which are regularly used and have contracts for supply set up already.  This is probably one reason why the gas price in the UK has not risen as high as it has in the EU, in relative terms to the 2019 average.  (It is about 12x for UK, 18x for EU.)
 

Offline voltsandjolts

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To be clear I'm fully in support of Ukraine and if it means high gas prices, so be it.  However I know the average person in the UK may be lucky to have £100 to their name by the end of the month - they simply cannot afford a £500/m energy bill.  Therefore I wonder if the resolve in Europe and UK will begin to crumble.

I sincerely hope resolve does not crumble.

There should be more urgency in UK preparedness, it's not visible to the public AFAICT. Yes, high prices will encourage many to reduce fuel consumption, hopefully enough such that coupled with a mild winter we will not see shortages and blackouts. But there should be government information broadcasts, at least stating the obvious; drive less, drive slower, insulate homes etc. But also preparing the collective mindset for the event of fuel rationing, such that it is not such a shock when it arrives - because it is that shock itself that causes the cracks in resolve.
 

Offline BravoV

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One sure thing, just hope or even pray, that this coming winter will not be brutally cold.  :scared:

Offline JohanH

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Also if you mention heat pump, no Dutch person will think about air conditioning. If I go to the website of any HVAC company, it will be a different category. I guess it's the lack of awareness which is the biggest issue. Also no subsidy for air conditioning, because... Well because it would make sense, and that's not what governments do.

Interesting. Over here, if you mention air-to-air heat pump, everyone knows you can run it as AC in the summer and heating in the winter. They are very popular as complimentary heating, e.g. if your main system uses oil or electricity. People install them in garages and everywhere. I had one for ten years in addition to the oil boiler and it reduced energy bills somewhat, but most importantly increased comfort in an old drafty house. I still use it as AC in the summer, but the ground source heat pump now takes care of heating and hot water. The air-to-air unit is soon 15 years old, still running without issue. I've never had to defrost it, only cleaned the inner unit a few times.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2022, 09:51:56 am by JohanH »
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Ridiculous thing is if you had an A2A fitted as part of the "renewable heat incentive" the air conditioning mode had to be disabled.  Even if you personally spend many thousands of pounds on it, they do not allow a function that exists in the unit to be used.

Fortunately on most indoor units, it's just a dip-switch to turn it on again.
 
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