General > General Technical Chat

"Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)

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Zero999:

--- Quote from: tom66 on August 29, 2022, 09:28:11 am ---
--- Quote from: tszaboo on August 29, 2022, 07:08:49 am ---And there was a toilet paper shortage not that long ago, artificially created, and done by mass hysteria.
The russians have a name for these people, it's UI or useful idiots.
We are prepared, the gas storage in Germany is 80% full, and it's enough for months. The only loosing method for us is to change policies. Otherwise let the Ukranians and Lockheed Martin and the others take care of the situation.
I'm not sure about the UK though. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.

--- End quote ---

To be clear I'm fully in support of Ukraine and if it means high gas prices, so be it.  However I know the average person in the UK may be lucky to have £100 to their name by the end of the month - they simply cannot afford a £500/m energy bill.  Therefore I wonder if the resolve in Europe and UK will begin to crumble.

If, indeed, it is just a short term hike in prices, and in a year or two things return to normal, then I think it could be managed. Support can be given to those on the lowest incomes, and businesses will just have to be frugal with gas.  Inevitably there will be some economic shrinkage, but I don't think it will be a total disaster as some have predicted.

However, if the war in Ukraine drags on for half a decade, as some have suggested, then it becomes a lot more existential for the EU.  The absolute earliest Germany will have enough LNG *terminals* is 2027 and there's an even longer lead time on the ships.

The UK is currently bringing the Rough storage facility back online but still we will have under a month of storage.  However we do have three LNG terminals, which are regularly used and have contracts for supply set up already.  This is probably one reason why the gas price in the UK has not risen as high as it has in the EU, in relative terms to the 2019 average.  (It is about 12x for UK, 18x for EU.)

--- End quote ---
Is it really helping Ukraine? I question how much of an impact on Russia the sanctions are really having. I can't see that war ending any time soon.

As far as heat pumps are concerned. What tariff are you on? For me gas is 4 times cheaper than electricity and my energy usage is very low, because I like cold showers, so it's not worth it, at this stage.

tom66:

--- Quote from: Zero999 on August 29, 2022, 05:27:41 pm ---Is it really helping Ukraine? I question how much of an impact on Russia the sanctions are really having. I can't see that war ending any time soon.

As far as heat pumps are concerned. What tariff are you on? For me gas is 4 times cheaper than electricity and my energy usage is very low, because I like cold showers, so it's not worth it, at this stage.

--- End quote ---

I don't think the sanctions are strictly helping Ukraine in the short term, but they could have a benefit.  Any technology or financial restriction will make it harder to replace weapons that are destroyed.  It's been reported that around 25% of all S400 systems that Russia owns have now been destroyed by the Ukranians - these require technology from the West, such as advanced radar engines and FPGAs that are now under sanction.  While Russia can probably source these from other locations, e.g. China, it will make it more expensive and more difficult, which will limit the rate at which they can build new S400's.

Now, whether that makes a difference in the war in the longer term is more questionable.  It really is a case of making sure that Ukraine can resist Russia, to either the point where they withdraw because the losses are insurmountable, or because they can no longer achieve their aims with the resources remaining.  It's more or less been in stalemate for the last 3 months, with Ukraine very slowly pushing back, but without enormously obvious progress in either direction.

The other question is let's say EU gets around the negotiation table with Putin to ask for more gas: do you think he's only going to ask for sanctions to be lifted, or do you think he'll want to see a complete withdrawal of NATO support?  I suspect the latter.  While EU doesn't control NATO - they could apply pressure within member states and on the US to ratchet things back.

As for heatpumps, I think they make a lot more sense if solar can contribute to your energy input, but at a COP of 4 they could still be better than a gas boiler (~80-85% efficient in a typical install.)

Zero999:

--- Quote from: tom66 on August 29, 2022, 05:56:53 pm ---
--- Quote from: Zero999 on August 29, 2022, 05:27:41 pm ---Is it really helping Ukraine? I question how much of an impact on Russia the sanctions are really having. I can't see that war ending any time soon.

As far as heat pumps are concerned. What tariff are you on? For me gas is 4 times cheaper than electricity and my energy usage is very low, because I like cold showers, so it's not worth it, at this stage.

--- End quote ---

I don't think the sanctions are strictly helping Ukraine in the short term, but they could have a benefit.  Any technology or financial restriction will make it harder to replace weapons that are destroyed.  It's been reported that around 25% of all S400 systems that Russia owns have now been destroyed by the Ukranians - these require technology from the West, such as advanced radar engines and FPGAs that are now under sanction.  While Russia can probably source these from other locations, e.g. China, it will make it more expensive and more difficult, which will limit the rate at which they can build new S400's.

Now, whether that makes a difference in the war in the longer term is more questionable.  It really is a case of making sure that Ukraine can resist Russia, to either the point where they withdraw because the losses are insurmountable, or because they can no longer achieve their aims with the resources remaining.  It's more or less been in stalemate for the last 3 months, with Ukraine very slowly pushing back, but without enormously obvious progress in either direction.

The other question is let's say EU gets around the negotiation table with Putin to ask for more gas: do you think he's only going to ask for sanctions to be lifted, or do you think he'll want to see a complete withdrawal of NATO support?  I suspect the latter.  While EU doesn't control NATO - they could apply pressure within member states and on the US to ratchet things back.
--- End quote ---
I'm cynical about the propaganda pumped out by the mainstream media.

I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering, then Russia would be happy to supply gas at a decent price.


--- Quote ---As for heatpumps, I think they make a lot more sense if solar can contribute to your energy input, but at a COP of 4 they could still be better than a gas boiler (~80-85% efficient in a typical install.)
--- End quote ---
Solar panels are useless in the winter. I don't use much  energy. It was just 757kW of gas and 830kW of electricity last year. I have a combi boiler and radiators with thin pipes designed for very hot water. I'm better off putting more money into paying off the mortgage, than buying a heat pump. I don't drive, so I won't buy an EV.

tom66:

--- Quote from: Zero999 on August 29, 2022, 06:28:21 pm ---I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering, then Russia would be happy to supply gas at a decent price.
--- End quote ---

Nah.  I don't accept this at all.  Remember, Putin invaded Crimea and was funding DPR separatists well before any talk of Ukraine joining NATO was there.   DPR separatists using Russian military technology were the cause of MH17's untimely end and the death of 298 completely innocent civilians.  Also, Ukraine offered to withdraw any suggestion of ascension to NATO just after the invasion as a compromise.  Putin is responsible for this war, not the EU.  It's the fact that the EU and NATO were willing to support Ukraine so significantly that threw him off course.  While we can't know his exact plans, it seems he's given up on the prize of Kyiv and instead wants to just annex a significant coastal area of Ukraine to weaken the state further. 

Now, could the EU negotiate an arrangement with Putin?  Possibly, but I don't see a negotiation where Ukraine doesn't become at the very least in a permanent stalemate (a bit like the Koreas) but even then that might be an optimistic outcome, more likely he will want a puppet state like Belarus on his border. That can only be achieved by NATO withdrawing support, Ukraine runs out of weapons and intelligence and Kyiv eventually falls.

Zero999:

--- Quote from: tom66 on August 29, 2022, 06:45:44 pm ---
--- Quote from: Zero999 on August 29, 2022, 06:28:21 pm ---I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering, then Russia would be happy to supply gas at a decent price.
--- End quote ---

Nah.  I don't accept this at all.  Remember, Putin invaded Crimea and was funding DPR separatists well before any talk of Ukraine joining NATO was there.   DPR separatists using Russian military technology were the cause of MH17's untimely end and the death of 298 completely innocent civilians.  Also, Ukraine offered to withdraw any suggestion of ascension to NATO just after the invasion as a compromise.  Putin is responsible for this war, not the EU.  It's the fact that the EU and NATO were willing to support Ukraine so significantly that threw him off course.  While we can't know his exact plans, it seems he's given up on the prize of Kyiv and instead wants to just annex a significant coastal area of Ukraine to weaken the state further. 

Now, could the EU negotiate an arrangement with Putin?  Possibly, but I don't see a negotiation where Ukraine doesn't become at the very least in a permanent stalemate (a bit like the Koreas) but even then that might be an optimistic outcome, more likely he will want a puppet state like Belarus on his border. That can only be achieved by NATO withdrawing support, Ukraine runs out of weapons and intelligence and Kyiv eventually falls.

--- End quote ---
It goes back further than that. The invasion of Crimea was triggered by NATO/EU interference. The mainstream media appear to have forgotten a lot of the history. You need to look at things from the Russian perspective. Here's a link to an essay and video, which explains it quite well.
https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf
YouTube video

The war won't end, because there are Russian supporters from within Ukraine. Ukraine needs to make a deal with Russia and the West must promise to leave things be.

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