Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79240 times)

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Offline james_s

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Yep, clearly that is the evil and nasty Russia propaganda, as I see you carry US flag, you should be aware that even an US former congresswoman and also an US president candidate, also she is an US military colonel and heck, even one of the most popular news host in US, Tucker Carlson too, all are bashing Ukraine like hell ... clearly they are moles and evil Putin's mouth piece.

I wouldn't put too much stock in what Tucker Carlson says, he's a bit of a "shock jock", a mix of facts and opinions, with a dose of sensationalism to rile up the masses. Not that he's alone in that, in fact I don't know that there is a mainstream news outlet that doesn't have a pretty significant political bias to one side or the other these days.
 
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Offline Vovk_Z

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This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing  :palm:.
No, you are not. These ultra-high prices are temporaly, it's just a transient, and prices will definitely go down at the moment when all this panic go down. So we just have to withstand some time.
 
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Offline madires

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These ultra-high prices are temporaly, it's just a transient, and prices will definitely go down at the moment when all this panic go down. So we just have to withstand some time.

I fully agree. Remember the shortage of toilet paper at the beginning of COVID19? Now it's gas and fuel oil. People over here are in a fuel oil buying frenzy right now.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Let's not forget that when the regulators or media or whatever forecast the cost they always base it on consumption staying the same - which if you think about it is insane!

If it does get really expensive, I will turn the thermostat down, I will better insulate my home (because suddenly £1,000 on insulation panels pays off very quickly), I will dry clothes outside in summer instead of drying on off-peak electricity at night (and I'll get a heat-pump dryer instead of a standard condenser) and I will look to get solar, etc.

I reckon I could cut my gas usage in half and my electricity down by 10% (without solar) or 50% (with solar).

Now I appreciate many could not afford large capital outlays but there will still be a demand cut, they will use electric blankets, or heat only one room, that kind of thing.
 

Offline RoGeorge

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The toilet paper shortage was panic buy.  Anyways, that's not an essential product, one can use a bidet instead.
Oil and gas shortages are real.  And these are essential products, without energy anything comes to a stop.

Offline Vovk_Z

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I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
That is 100% pro-russian statement. What value do you want to sell here?   'If there is some agressor or terrorist state you have to surrender. There is no reason to resist. '. That is what russia 100% wants and needs.
So is that a base of Western/European/democratic values? 'Don't fight for your independence and freedom'?
What military rank do you have in FSB, comrade?
« Last Edit: August 30, 2022, 10:00:08 pm by Vovk_Z »
 
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Offline james_s

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I fully agree. Remember the shortage of toilet paper at the beginning of COVID19? Now it's gas and fuel oil. People over here are in a fuel oil buying frenzy right now.

We can make as much toilet paper as we want, trees and other fibers are a renewable resource that is plentiful in much of the world. Oil and gas are getting rarer all the time and supplies are concentrated in a few regions.
 

Offline Vovk_Z

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But we're also experiencing economic hardship. It doesn't appear to be making much difference to the war. I can see China stepping in to help.
'It is hard so lets surrender. And if you dont want to surrender - I'll  give you another monster to scare you - a large and scary China'.
(I just want to translate Zero999 from his FSB language to a plain  English.
 

Offline madires

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We can make as much toilet paper as we want, trees and other fibers are a renewable resource that is plentiful in much of the world.

No, we have a slight shortage of paper for a while now (https://marketrealist.com/p/why-is-there-a-paper-shortage/).

Oil and gas are getting rarer all the time and supplies are concentrated in a few regions.

We all know that, but they don't suddenly disappear, or do they?
 

Online tautech

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I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !

Pray for adults one day be in charge................
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Offline SiliconWizard

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Things tend to be disappearing at will these days... so who knows.
 :-DD
 

Offline madires

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I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !

For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
 

Online themadhippy

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, I will better insulate my home (because suddenly £1,000 on insulation panels pays off very quickly
yea but that £1000 of insulation would only have cost £500 2 years ago,and surprise surprise its also in short supply
 

Online tautech

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I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !

For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
Still if they are properly committed to change all avenues of energy supply and savings need be explored rather than only the populist stuff.  ::)
In Perth where one of our sons live now there were interest free loans, subsidies and guaranteed buyback prices for domestic PV installations and in many parts of the city there was heavy uptake of such offerings so that in some areas panels cover 50+% of the houses in a suburb.
With care those that grabbed such incentives pay just a few $/month for their power however the catch was no local storage so all solar generation was injected back into the grid.

Then again, the place is run by adults.
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Offline SiliconWizard

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I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !

For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.

I've been saying this for a while about EVs, and most people tended to brush this off. They are starting to realize that electricity is not infinitely available either. (And that prices are shooting through the roof, and if people think this is only temporary, uh... I unfortunately don't think so.)
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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I've been saying this for a while about EVs, and most people tended to brush this off. They are starting to realize that electricity is not infinitely available either. (And that prices are shooting through the roof, and if people think this is only temporary, uh... I unfortunately don't think so.)

You may have been saying it but we haven't been listening because it's nonsense.

Passenger EVs would represent an additional 20% demand on the grid and that demand will come active over the next decade or two.

There is presently an excess of renewable energy that is not used, wind turbines often spool down when the price is too low because it's not worth the wear and tear to sell at that price.

If you have dispatchable demand ready to absorb that energy as a primary demand (rather than e.g. turning it into hydrogen to use later) then it's going to be a lot more profitable to sell it than not.

Of course it will require massive renewables installations but it's hardly beyond the wit of humans to do that.
 

Offline Zero999

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I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
That is 100% pro-russian statement. What value do you want to sell here?   'If there is some agressor or terrorist state you have to surrender. There is no reason to resist. '. That is what russia 100% wants and needs.
So is that a base of Western/European/democratic values? 'Don't fight for your independence and freedom'?
What military rank do you have in FSB, comrade?
It's a pragmatic statement. The problem for Ukraine is the there are Russian supporters in the country. Where did I say anything about surrendering? It just there's very little the West can do to help. Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.
Quote
This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing  :palm:.
No, you are not. These ultra-high prices are temporaly, it's just a transient, and prices will definitely go down at the moment when all this panic go down. So we just have to withstand some time.
Prices will go down, if/when production is increased elsewhere. The problem is the US has scaled back production, so we have to look to the Middle East and they might want to avoid increasing production too much, to keep prices high.

I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !

For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.

I've been saying this for a while about EVs, and most people tended to brush this off. They are starting to realize that electricity is not infinitely available either. (And that prices are shooting through the roof, and if people think this is only temporary, uh... I unfortunately don't think so.)

To some extent electricity usage has gone down, thanks to efficiency gains in household appliances, which has left us with some spare capacity. It will be a gradual process, so there's plenty of time for the network to adapt.
 

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I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
Depends on your definition of replacement... electric vehicles and heat pumps use less electrical energy to do the same job than the existing fossil fuel "solutions". A more realistic figure would be just under a doubling of electricity generation (not doubling of power/capacity!) if every single use of energy moved to electricity. Can it be done in a few years? no. 10 years? possibly with a big effort.

But that's assuming you have the existing pattern of fluctuating demand (daily/seasonal etc) which is not the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird. Existing plants are not all running with 90%+ utilization factors. Right now the price squeeze is from peak demand reliant on gas turbines where every generator must profit in isolation across all billing increments, while the other generators will take the same price and profit $$$$ on the side. A monopoly operator would be amortising the profit across the fleet and having some "unprofitable" generation to avoid blackouts, paid for by the profits of the other generators.
 

Offline Zero999

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I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
Depends on your definition of replacement... electric vehicles and heat pumps use less electrical energy to do the same job than the existing fossil fuel "solutions". A more realistic figure would be just under a doubling of electricity generation (not doubling of power/capacity!) if every single use of energy moved to electricity. Can it be done in a few years? no. 10 years? possibly with a big effort.

But that's assuming you have the existing pattern of fluctuating demand (daily/seasonal etc) which is not the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird. Existing plants are not all running with 90%+ utilization factors. Right now the price squeeze is from peak demand reliant on gas turbines where every generator must profit in isolation across all billing increments, while the other generators will take the same price and profit $$$$ on the side. A monopoly operator would be amortising the profit across the fleet and having some "unprofitable" generation to avoid blackouts, paid for by the profits of the other generators.
I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.

If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.

How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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"Wholesale gas prices tumble as Europe prepares to intervene in energy markets"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

We'll have to see if this intervention produces an actual outcome, but it does seem to have calmed the market briefly.

Still even if prices drop to just 8-10x the 2019 high then it's very bad nonetheless.  I think they need to get down to max 3-4x before the outcome is mild (limited recession, people able to keep heating on, etc.)
 

Online tautech

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How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.
Here in NZ EV's are currently getting a fee ride as another form of subsidy fantasy whereas every other vehicle must contribute to the roading networks wear and tare in currently 2 ways.
Additional fuel taxes on all petrol sales whereas all diesel vehicles contribute to the roading network by way of a Road User charge, it being calculated on GVM (gross weight) and its # of axles and/or tyre configuration.
NZ RUC's are distance based and must be pre-purchased and displayed on the windscreen.

As diesel is the primary off road fuel all off road use does not contribute to the roading network, the benefit being one diesel fuel type is used for everything without the additional cost of fuel usage administration checks.

However pleasure pursuits such as boating and offroad activities get caught with the additional petrol taxes however there is a avenue to claim the road tax component back although most don't unless they are large petrol users.
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Offline Vovk_Z

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It's a pragmatic statement. The problem for Ukraine is the there are Russian supporters in the country. Where did I say anything about surrendering? It just there's very little the West can do to help. Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.
In general I'm tired of fighting with russian propaganda, because we are in a state of a real war here (and I'm tired of pre-war internet wars). I went from russian electronic forums (since 2014-2015) to international ones (so did many ukrainians), because of two reasons: 1) I want for russians to cook in their own shit without me. 2) I'm tired of internet wars and tired of reading a russian imperial propaganda shit.
But I'll make some exclusion for you for a some short period of time.

'It's a pragmatic statement' - it is pragmatic to be biten by russia one-by-one, country-by-country? Haven't you learned a history of begining a  WW2?

'there are Russian supporters in the country' - there are rusian supporters in almost any country. Ukraine just the closest one to the russia (so it has the most effect), but there are some russian suporters almost all over the Europe and all over the world - in Germany, France, UK, even in the USA. So what?? For example, Does USA have to give Alyaska 'back' to the russia? It could be pragmatic, otherwise a war may beging, or other 'inconvenience' and 'hard time'.

'It just there's very little the West can do to help.' - that is a classic russian 'We all are small people, and we can't do nothing'.

'Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.' - it is like I'm in a russian forum when I reading you. You spell exact 100% percent of a russian statements, all of them. You forget to add about America bombed Baghdad and so on.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2022, 11:33:25 pm by Vovk_Z »
 
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Online Someone

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the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
If you jump immediately to storage = public resource then that might be true, but that's your misleading definition/requirement.

People with cars want to drive them around, but they (on average) sit idle for 95% of the time. It does not need all that time to recharge them, the charging can be done at the convenience of supply. The energy needed is stored for use later. All that grumbling about negative electricity prices during peak solar production? EVs will soak it up if that is exposed to the consumer, they dont need to return anything to the grid to store the "excess" energy as they form a fairly predictable energy sink with peaky use. The clever bit will be lining up all the commercial interests so a user can just plug in and have it automatically happen.

If EVs are going to be using some large percentage of all energy (as some say is the barrier to their uptake) then they will be presenting an even larger percentage of storage to the grid, which solves many of the energy production issues.
 

Offline nctnico

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Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective.  For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline james_s

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I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.

If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.

How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.

Banning ICE cars is absolutely stupid, at least it is on the insanely aggressive timeline that CA and now my state have pledged to do it. I did notice the law does allow plug-in hybrids though so I suspect we will see a large number of hybrids with a token plug-in feature tacked on that allows the battery to be topped off, and I doubt many people will use it.

Pure EVs are already extremely popular and they are growing fast. There is no need to mandate them, the free(ish) market is working as it is supposed to and people whose needs are met by an EV are choosing them when it is economically advantageous to do so. With a Tesla costing around $10 for 300 miles of range you don't even have to drive a huge number of miles for that to pay off, even at fuel prices of a few years ago. Even so, there are enough edge cases that trying to mandate pure EV is ridiculous. Tradesmen and such still need heavy duty trucks with large range. People that have horses and RVs need to be able to pull a big heavy trailer, sometimes hundreds of miles in a day. Huge numbers of people do not have these edge cases but enough do that ICE must remain a choice for the foreseeable future.
 


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