General > General Technical Chat

"Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)

<< < (54/139) > >>

tom66:

--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on August 30, 2022, 10:16:17 pm ---I've been saying this for a while about EVs, and most people tended to brush this off. They are starting to realize that electricity is not infinitely available either. (And that prices are shooting through the roof, and if people think this is only temporary, uh... I unfortunately don't think so.)

--- End quote ---

You may have been saying it but we haven't been listening because it's nonsense.

Passenger EVs would represent an additional 20% demand on the grid and that demand will come active over the next decade or two.

There is presently an excess of renewable energy that is not used, wind turbines often spool down when the price is too low because it's not worth the wear and tear to sell at that price.

If you have dispatchable demand ready to absorb that energy as a primary demand (rather than e.g. turning it into hydrogen to use later) then it's going to be a lot more profitable to sell it than not.

Of course it will require massive renewables installations but it's hardly beyond the wit of humans to do that.

Zero999:

--- Quote from: Vovk_Z on August 30, 2022, 09:20:45 pm ---
--- Quote from: Zero999 on August 29, 2022, 11:06:57 pm ---I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.

--- End quote ---
That is 100% pro-russian statement. What value do you want to sell here?   'If there is some agressor or terrorist state you have to surrender. There is no reason to resist. '. That is what russia 100% wants and needs.
So is that a base of Western/European/democratic values? 'Don't fight for your independence and freedom'?
What military rank do you have in FSB, comrade?

--- End quote ---
It's a pragmatic statement. The problem for Ukraine is the there are Russian supporters in the country. Where did I say anything about surrendering? It just there's very little the West can do to help. Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.

--- Quote from: Vovk_Z on August 30, 2022, 07:33:11 pm ---
--- Quote ---This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing  :palm:.

--- End quote ---
No, you are not. These ultra-high prices are temporaly, it's just a transient, and prices will definitely go down at the moment when all this panic go down. So we just have to withstand some time.

--- End quote ---
Prices will go down, if/when production is increased elsewhere. The problem is the US has scaled back production, so we have to look to the Middle East and they might want to avoid increasing production too much, to keep prices high.


--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on August 30, 2022, 10:16:17 pm ---
--- Quote from: madires on August 30, 2022, 09:49:03 pm ---
--- Quote from: tautech on August 30, 2022, 09:37:20 pm ---I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !

--- End quote ---

For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.

--- End quote ---

I've been saying this for a while about EVs, and most people tended to brush this off. They are starting to realize that electricity is not infinitely available either. (And that prices are shooting through the roof, and if people think this is only temporary, uh... I unfortunately don't think so.)

--- End quote ---

To some extent electricity usage has gone down, thanks to efficiency gains in household appliances, which has left us with some spare capacity. It will be a gradual process, so there's plenty of time for the network to adapt.

Someone:

--- Quote from: madires on August 30, 2022, 09:49:03 pm ---
--- Quote from: tautech on August 30, 2022, 09:37:20 pm ---I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
--- End quote ---
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
--- End quote ---
Depends on your definition of replacement... electric vehicles and heat pumps use less electrical energy to do the same job than the existing fossil fuel "solutions". A more realistic figure would be just under a doubling of electricity generation (not doubling of power/capacity!) if every single use of energy moved to electricity. Can it be done in a few years? no. 10 years? possibly with a big effort.

But that's assuming you have the existing pattern of fluctuating demand (daily/seasonal etc) which is not the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird. Existing plants are not all running with 90%+ utilization factors. Right now the price squeeze is from peak demand reliant on gas turbines where every generator must profit in isolation across all billing increments, while the other generators will take the same price and profit $$$$ on the side. A monopoly operator would be amortising the profit across the fleet and having some "unprofitable" generation to avoid blackouts, paid for by the profits of the other generators.

Zero999:

--- Quote from: Someone on August 30, 2022, 10:48:42 pm ---
--- Quote from: madires on August 30, 2022, 09:49:03 pm ---
--- Quote from: tautech on August 30, 2022, 09:37:20 pm ---I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
--- End quote ---
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
--- End quote ---
Depends on your definition of replacement... electric vehicles and heat pumps use less electrical energy to do the same job than the existing fossil fuel "solutions". A more realistic figure would be just under a doubling of electricity generation (not doubling of power/capacity!) if every single use of energy moved to electricity. Can it be done in a few years? no. 10 years? possibly with a big effort.

But that's assuming you have the existing pattern of fluctuating demand (daily/seasonal etc) which is not the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird. Existing plants are not all running with 90%+ utilization factors. Right now the price squeeze is from peak demand reliant on gas turbines where every generator must profit in isolation across all billing increments, while the other generators will take the same price and profit $$$$ on the side. A monopoly operator would be amortising the profit across the fleet and having some "unprofitable" generation to avoid blackouts, paid for by the profits of the other generators.

--- End quote ---
I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.

If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.

How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.

tom66:
"Wholesale gas prices tumble as Europe prepares to intervene in energy markets"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

We'll have to see if this intervention produces an actual outcome, but it does seem to have calmed the market briefly.

Still even if prices drop to just 8-10x the 2019 high then it's very bad nonetheless.  I think they need to get down to max 3-4x before the outcome is mild (limited recession, people able to keep heating on, etc.)

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page

[*] Previous page

There was an error while thanking
Thanking...
Go to full version
Powered by SMFPacks Advanced Attachments Uploader Mod