Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79230 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online tautech

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 29812
  • Country: nz
  • Taupaki Technologies Ltd. Siglent Distributor NZ.
    • Taupaki Technologies Ltd.
I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.

If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.

How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.

Banning ICE cars is absolutely stupid, at least it is on the insanely aggressive timeline that CA and now my state have pledged to do it. I did notice the law does allow plug-in hybrids though so I suspect we will see a large number of hybrids with a token plug-in feature tacked on that allows the battery to be topped off, and I doubt many people will use it.

Pure EVs are already extremely popular and they are growing fast. There is no need to mandate them, the free(ish) market is working as it is supposed to and people whose needs are met by an EV are choosing them when it is economically advantageous to do so. With a Tesla costing around $10 for 300 miles of range you don't even have to drive a huge number of miles for that to pay off, even at fuel prices of a few years ago. Even so, there are enough edge cases that trying to mandate pure EV is ridiculous. Tradesmen and such still need heavy duty trucks with large range. People that have horses and RVs need to be able to pull a big heavy trailer, sometimes hundreds of miles in a day. Huge numbers of people do not have these edge cases but enough do that ICE must remain a choice for the foreseeable future.
CA ? Madness when they produce 250000 barrels of crude/day.
Don't adults run that place either ?
Avid Rabid Hobbyist.
Some stuff seen @ Siglent HQ cannot be shared.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 15800
  • Country: fr
They can be both adults and psychopaths.
 

Offline MT

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1687
  • Country: aq
Enjoy the coming "glorious MI6/WEF induced imperial" winter UK! Hope you have enough of firewood to charge your EV's with!!   >:D

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation

Back in WW2 folks converted their cars to Holz Gaz! Im looking forward to all EV's converted to holz gaz!


« Last Edit: August 31, 2022, 01:27:38 am by MT »
 
The following users thanked this post: SiliconWizard

Online NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 9321
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
Banning ICE cars is absolutely stupid, at least it is on the insanely aggressive timeline that CA and now my state have pledged to do it. I did notice the law does allow plug-in hybrids though so I suspect we will see a large number of hybrids with a token plug-in feature tacked on that allows the battery to be topped off, and I doubt many people will use it.

Pure EVs are already extremely popular and they are growing fast. There is no need to mandate them, the free(ish) market is working as it is supposed to and people whose needs are met by an EV are choosing them when it is economically advantageous to do so. With a Tesla costing around $10 for 300 miles of range you don't even have to drive a huge number of miles for that to pay off, even at fuel prices of a few years ago. Even so, there are enough edge cases that trying to mandate pure EV is ridiculous. Tradesmen and such still need heavy duty trucks with large range. People that have horses and RVs need to be able to pull a big heavy trailer, sometimes hundreds of miles in a day. Huge numbers of people do not have these edge cases but enough do that ICE must remain a choice for the foreseeable future.
I don't think the requirement applies to commercial vehicles, and you already mentioned plug in hybrids as the solution for long distance.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline james_s

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 21611
  • Country: us
I don't think the requirement applies to commercial vehicles, and you already mentioned plug in hybrids as the solution for long distance.

What is their definition of a commercial vehicle?

What about individuals that have things like campers, horse trailers and toy haulers? As far as I know there are currently no hybrid fullsized diesel pickup trucks. Of course it's possible that the definition of "plug in hybrid" is loose enough for a workaround but in that case the legislation is a bit of a joke.
 

Online themadhippy

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3266
  • Country: gb
To thinka century ago most large citys were using electric vehicles  to get the masses around without range anxiety or having to carry  heavy battery's
 
The following users thanked this post: tom66, Someone

Online Someone

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5156
  • Country: au
    • send complaints here
the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
If you jump immediately to storage = public resource then that might be true, but that's your misleading definition/requirement.

People with cars want to drive them around, but they (on average) sit idle for 95% of the time. It does not need all that time to recharge them, the charging can be done at the convenience of supply. The energy needed is stored for use later. All that grumbling about negative electricity prices during peak solar production? EVs will soak it up if that is exposed to the consumer, they dont need to return anything to the grid to store the "excess" energy as they form a fairly predictable energy sink with peaky use. The clever bit will be lining up all the commercial interests so a user can just plug in and have it automatically happen.

If EVs are going to be using some large percentage of all energy (as some say is the barrier to their uptake) then they will be presenting an even larger percentage of storage to the grid, which solves many of the energy production issues.
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective.  For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.
FFS, you want an EV that cant store energy? better get a long extension lead....

Every practical EV stores energy, you know, for when its driving along the road.

The vast majority of EVs dont need to be charged during peak electricity demand (currently post work/dinner evening peak in most countries), they can be charged whenever power is cheap/plentiful in most instances and wait for it... store that energy until its needed.
 
The following users thanked this post: Siwastaja

Offline BravoV

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7549
  • Country: 00
  • +++ ATH1
"Wholesale gas prices tumble as Europe prepares to intervene in energy markets"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

We'll have to see if this intervention produces an actual outcome, but it does seem to have calmed the market briefly.

Still even if prices drop to just 8-10x the 2019 high then it's very bad nonetheless.  I think they need to get down to max 3-4x before the outcome is mild (limited recession, people able to keep heating on, etc.)

Yes, spot price for gas in Europe is easing lately, but ... psstt ... this is really what happened behind the curtain.  >:D

Even this article below is behind paywall, you can have a glimpse just by reading the title, and this UK based FT (Financial Times) is a hardcore anti Russia news outlet btw, since cold war.

Source -> https://www.ft.com/content/1e20467a-5b53-42b7-ad89-49808f7e1780


But to be able to decode the FT article further, this source below is US based (more aligned to pro right wing US) which is clearly pro-US, read here ...

Source -> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe

Quote ...

Russia has surpassed Indonesia and the United States to become China’s fourth-largest supplier of LNG so far this year!

What was behind this bizarre surge in Russian LNG imports, analysts speculated? After all, while China imports over half of the natural gas it consumes, with around two-thirds in the form of LNG, demand this year had fallen sharply amid economic headwinds and widespread shutdowns. In other words, why the surge in Russian LNG  when i) domestic demand is just not there and ii) at the expense of everyone else?

Well, we now know the answer: China has been quietly reselling that evil, tainted Russian LNG to the one place that desperately needs it more than anything. Europe... and of course, it is charging a kidney's worth of markups in the process.

Hilariously, it also means that instead of being dependent on Russia for gas, Europe is now becoming dependent on Beijing instead for its energy - which is still Russian gas, only this time imported from China - which makes a mockery of US geopolitical ambitions to defend a liberal international order with its own energy exports.

Worse, while Europe could buy Russian LNG for price X, it instead has to pay 2X, 3X or more, just to virtue signal to the world that it won't fund Putin's regime, when in reality is is paying extra to both Xi and to Putin, ....  :-DD


Again, do not forget, the surge in gas price in Europe is not a spike like toilet paper's problem because of sudden hoarding, but the constant need is there, and Russia gas represent big chunks of it, and with sudden lost, no other countries have spare capacity to replace that, just plain simple truth.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2022, 02:39:00 am by BravoV »
 

Online Someone

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5156
  • Country: au
    • send complaints here
To thinka century ago most large citys were using electric vehicles  to get the masses around without range anxiety or having to carry  heavy battery's
Things like trains ran more often and more reliably too! Its a change in what the public "demand" as their basic minimum living standard. Travelling to the other side of the city to see a friend for a social activity was once a significant decision/choice, now its a "basic right" and is seen as cheap and convenient. As above in this thread, once people heated a single room and survived ok, but now people are demanding they should be able to heat their entire house and someone else should subsidise/pay for that.

We had a period of (unsustainably) cheap energy, it was never going to last. Trying to subsidise people to continue their unproductive activities is sure disaster.
 
The following users thanked this post: NiHaoMike, Siwastaja


Offline BravoV

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7549
  • Country: 00
  • +++ ATH1
Source -> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe

No kidding! :-DD

You will laugh even more if you do "smart" reading further at pro-Western news sites regarding India with sudden gigantic spike on buying oil from Russia, which was never happened since last year, which they distilled it into diesel or gasoline and sell it to Europe.  :-DD

I'm just too lazy to post it here.

Online NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 9321
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
What about individuals that have things like campers, horse trailers and toy haulers? As far as I know there are currently no hybrid fullsized diesel pickup trucks. Of course it's possible that the definition of "plug in hybrid" is loose enough for a workaround but in that case the legislation is a bit of a joke.
Why would it need to be a diesel? Electric motors are great at providing torque. It would also make sense to develop a "powered trailer" with its own set of batteries and motor especially for a RV that's going to have the batteries anyways, such that any normal car would be able to tow it.
Things like trains ran more often and more reliably too! Its a change in what the public "demand" as their basic minimum living standard. Travelling to the other side of the city to see a friend for a social activity was once a significant decision/choice, now its a "basic right" and is seen as cheap and convenient. As above in this thread, once people heated a single room and survived ok, but now people are demanding they should be able to heat their entire house and someone else should subsidise/pay for that.

We had a period of (unsustainably) cheap energy, it was never going to last. Trying to subsidise people to continue their unproductive activities is sure disaster.
There needs to be incentives to vastly reduce energy use. Making energy pricing nonlinear/"progressive" would be one way to do that.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 
The following users thanked this post: tom66, Someone

Offline tom66Topic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7336
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics Hobbyist & FPGA/Embedded Systems EE
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective.  For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.

They don't need to be grid storage, just dispatchable demand.

We already have charge points that give you the option: "I need 80% charge in my car by tomorrow.  Charge whenever you can, as long as it's ready by 7 am" (and the power company sends a signal to the charger telling it to modulate current and turn on and off as there is excess renewable on the grid, or high proportion of nuclear/biomass.)

 

Offline JohanH

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 669
  • Country: fi

For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.

While I've seen numbers like 250% increase in electrical consumption (assuming 100% electric vehicles and 100% heat pumps for heating) for UK that has poorly insulated houses, this will probably vary a lot between countries.

E.g. in Finland, where we don't use gas and not much coal, and have properly insulated houses, we have already over 20% heat pumps in residential homes and a bit more electrical heating, which will of course lessen the demand when switched to heat pumps (ongoing as we speak). There is also a large part with biomass and biofuels, e.g. wood, pellets and to some extent biogas. These types would probably not switch to heat pumps. We already use electricity for cooking (never used gas here), so that won't change. The bigger impact here might be electric cars.

Finland has for many years had to import electricity, e.g. typically about 10% from Russia (which has now naturally stopped) and more from the other Nordic countries. It is expected that next year we will break even for the first time, due to a new nuclear reactor and increasing wind and solar installations (told recently by national grid CEO).


« Last Edit: August 31, 2022, 09:37:17 am by JohanH »
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7336
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics Hobbyist & FPGA/Embedded Systems EE
It's going to be much more important to properly insulate homes rather than increase generation.

Avg. gas consumption of 12000kWh per year for a house could be dropped to 3000kWh with good insulation.  That then looks like 750kWh per year of consumption in a heat pump, and bonus, the heatpump can be much smaller and cheaper to install.

Part of the problem is a serious lack of tradespeople to do the work - we need to have apprentices and training courses for these rather than more people with degrees in art history.
 
The following users thanked this post: JohanH, Vovk_Z

Online tggzzz

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 21227
  • Country: gb
  • Numbers, not adjectives
    • Having fun doing more, with less
Enjoy the coming "glorious MI6/WEF induced imperial" winter UK! Hope you have enough of firewood to charge your EV's with!!   >:D

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation

Back in WW2 folks converted their cars to Holz Gaz! Im looking forward to all EV's converted to holz gaz!

Anything and everything on zerohedge is driven by politics seen from one very biassed angle.

Please avoid introducing politics to this thread and the forum in general.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 28429
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective.  For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.

They don't need to be grid storage, just dispatchable demand.

We already have charge points that give you the option: "I need 80% charge in my car by tomorrow.  Charge whenever you can, as long as it's ready by 7 am" (and the power company sends a signal to the charger telling it to modulate current and turn on and off as there is excess renewable on the grid, or high proportion of nuclear/biomass.)
That is something else and IMHO very unlikely to happen because it means the electricity generation & distribution is falling short (as if you are living in a third world country). In the end you can't predict peak demand. Over here the trains are on strike so everybody who has a car, goes to work with a car. How to plan for that with a system that inherently isn't able to deal with peak demand?

Discharging an EV back into the grid however, is not a good idea because you will wear the battery which depreciates the value of your car. A sane person will want to be compensated for that monetary loss.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2022, 10:50:15 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline MT

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1687
  • Country: aq
Enjoy the coming "glorious MI6/WEF induced imperial" winter UK! Hope you have enough of firewood to charge your EV's with!!   >:D

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation

Back in WW2 folks converted their cars to Holz Gaz! Im looking forward to all EV's converted to holz gaz!
Anything and everything on zerohedge is driven by politics seen from one very biassed angle.
And you know that after actually reading ZH. :)
ZH actually less biased then most MSM news , it even allow folks like your self to post articles there if you want to, you seams biased because the article mentions "UK".

Quote
Please avoid introducing politics to this thread and the forum in general.
Which is :bullshit: ofcourse and a personal attack which is your real intent , cant see you complain about lot of folks who even start political threads like this one  and others (BravoV above)
referencing ZH articles?

Anyhow charging your EV in UK seams to be expensive in the upcoming future.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2022, 11:35:18 am by MT »
 

Offline Vovk_Z

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1478
  • Country: ua
Hilariously, it also means that instead of being dependent on Russia for gas, Europe is now becoming dependent on Beijing instead for its energy - which is still Russian gas, only this time imported from China
Even if this is true - it is still ok, because you can't deal with all problems at ones. You deal with problems in series, one-after-another. It gives a time. First we get rid of russian gas dependency (actual and VERY HOT problem), after that we can move away from China gas dependency (that is not so hot problem). And China buys it for a much smaller price, so russia earns not too much.
For example, at the moment, Ukraine doesn't buy gas straight from russia several last years (3-4?), but buys the same gas from Europe. That totally changed gas situation for Ukraine (greatly soften and stabilized it) until russia started a large war against Ukraine and in reality against the whole West.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2022, 11:18:55 am by Vovk_Z »
 

Offline Marco

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7044
  • Country: nl
Part of the problem is a serious lack of tradespeople to do the work - we need to have apprentices and training courses for these rather than more people with degrees in art history.

People can't afford it either. Government should provide some mild pressure to do whole streets, with long term loans to pay off the difference with the subsidy.

One size fit most can probably be done a lot cheaper than all the custom work being done now. Depending on the walls either fill them with insulation, or 3D scan the facade for outer wall insulation and cut it into an easy to install jigsaw at the factory. Use reflective air cushion insulation below the floor (it does work, is cheap and doesn't have bad PR from VOC). Have installers bid for work for entire blocks to get costs down similar to fiber.

Isn't that unfair to the people who did it themselves some might ask, to which I would say I don't care.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 28429
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Actually I care. The problem with subsidies is that they just increase the price. It would be much better if the subsidies where applied to buying the materials so people can also DIY. Earlier this year I asked for quotations to have the rear door + window of my home replaced. I got quotations ranging from 12k to 15k euro. If I buy the materials myself, they cost around 6k euro in total.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
The following users thanked this post: madires

Online Someone

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5156
  • Country: au
    • send complaints here
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
While I've seen numbers like 250% increase in electrical consumption (assuming 100% electric vehicles and 100% heat pumps for heating) for UK that has poorly insulated houses, this will probably vary a lot between countries.
Get your answers here:
https://www.iea.org/sankey/
world coverage complete with historic comparisons
 

Offline Marco

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 7044
  • Country: nl
The problem with subsidies is that they just increase the price.
The problem with consumers trying to get a competetive bid is information assymetry.

Government auctioning off million dollar orders can much better judge margins and market supply and scale up orders accordingly. Assuming they are competent and not corrupt.
 

Online tggzzz

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 21227
  • Country: gb
  • Numbers, not adjectives
    • Having fun doing more, with less
Enjoy the coming "glorious MI6/WEF induced imperial" winter UK! Hope you have enough of firewood to charge your EV's with!!   >:D

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation

Back in WW2 folks converted their cars to Holz Gaz! Im looking forward to all EV's converted to holz gaz!
Anything and everything on zerohedge is driven by politics seen from one very biassed angle.
And you know that after actually reading ZH. :)

Yes. Precisely that.

Quote
ZH actually less biased then most MSM news , it even allow folks like your self to post articles there if you want to, you seams biased because the article mentions "UK".

Your using the keyword "MSM" is revealing.

Quote
Quote
Please avoid introducing politics to this thread and the forum in general.
Which is :bullshit: ofcourse and a personal attack which is your real intent , cant see you complain about lot of folks who even start political threads like this one  and others (BravoV above)
referencing ZH articles?

That's another revealing statement.

Strawman arguments attacking other people's personality and intent is unimpressive.

There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 

Offline Siwastaja

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 9336
  • Country: fi
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective.  For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.

Solution: instead of V2G which requires more complex inverters within the car and as you say, wears out the battery, just implement on-demand suspension of charging (i.e., go to zero, not negative). Given the scale, this is almost as good as vehicle-to-grid, but without the downsides.

All you need is some control logic (and user interfaces) so that the driver has a guarantee they will have X km of range before YY:ZZ.
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf