Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79334 times)

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Offline wraper

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We were connected to Russian/Belarus electric grid where we could buy very cheap electricity. In the name of energy independence we disconnected from it earlier this year. An effect on Russia/Belarus is close to zero. They do not get to sell a bit of cheap electricity, we pay 10 times more. Does not sound like independence to me. And Germany shutting down their nuclear plants in favor of natural gas in the name of ecology was simply moronic, not to say hypocritical.
 
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Offline BravoV

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... Germany shutting down their nuclear plants in favor of natural gas in the name of ecology was simply moronic, not to say hypocritical.

Blindly follow that ecology cult, and probably also chanting for "the cult leader" like goddess Greta Thunberg  :palm: , without a practical and economically sounds solution for a country that is one of world's top elite industrial work horse, is basically worst than moronic.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2022, 09:41:05 am by BravoV »
 
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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I still don't understand Germany's logic towards turning off nuclear.   I also don't understand why they doubled down on NS2 after the Crimean invasion.   Surely that would be the point to begin at least securing alternative supplies, planning for the possibility of Russia cutting off gas.

It's just incompetence - or malice - of the highest order.  I like to subscribe to Hanlon's Razor ("never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity") but this is pretty damn stupid.
 
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Offline madires

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Despite the German government running around and telling everyone to save gas, this year more electric power is generated from gas than last year because it's exported to France (drought forces nuclear plants to run at lower power levels and several plants are shut down for maintenance) and Switzerland (less power from hydroelectric power plants due to drought). At the moment there is a discussion about running the last few German nuclear power plants a few years longer. BTW, fuel oil prices are crazy too (1.70 €/l today).
 

Offline wraper

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Surely that would be the point to begin at least securing alternative supplies, planning for the possibility of Russia cutting off gas.
I wouldn't call it Russia cutting off gas. It's way more like EU cutting itself off from Russian gas. You cannot basically steal all Russian money in European banks, make buying anything from Russia from very hard next to impossible, and then blame Russians for that with straight face. Latvian government for example is full of it. Our gas company is not allowed to buy natural gas from Russia from January 2023, and was not allowed to do it for a few months when sanctions took place. The only other option for us is LNG from a terminal in Lithuania. Which at best could supply Lithuania by itself, if there will be enough tankers (which I really doubt). Look on the gas pipeline map, where in the hell are we supposed to get it other than from Russia (through Belarus too)? So far our government is assuring everything is OK. Even though I'm already paying EUR 100 a month for natural gas to just heat water and for cooking. And EUR 150 for measly 300 kWh of electricity in July. Which will be even more for August. I guess the curtain will completely fall after parliament elections on October 1st.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2022, 10:23:27 am by wraper »
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Right, but you also can't allow Russia to invade a sovereign democratic country.  So the sanctions are justified there, it is just that the EU cannot survive long without Russian gas, so it creates a dilemma.  You can support Ukraine and have cold homes and shut down industry,  or allow Ukraine to fall to the Russians and admit that Russia has too much control over European energy to make any retaliatory action practical in the long term. 

I doubt Russia would allow anything but a total withdrawal of Western support from Ukraine before turning the gas taps back to full.  Whilst it is almost certainly hurting Russia to only sell 20% of its gas (the country's GDP is 50% energy export and the majority customer is Europe; like EU there is strong focus to one customer - there are not enough pipelines to supply Asia, or export LNG etc.),  I fear that Russia can probably outlast a reduction in gas purchases. 

From a purely self-interested perspective:  Russia's actions in cutting off gas are justified, because why would they fuel their enemy?  But, Russia's actions in Ukraine absolutely are not justifiable.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2022, 10:24:36 am by tom66 »
 

Offline wraper

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From a purely self-interested perspective:  Russia's actions in cutting off gas are justified, because why would they fuel their enemy?  But, Russia's actions in Ukraine absolutely are not justifiable.
It's more like supplying it for free rather to an enemy. They will supply it even if they do not like us, but expecting them doing it for free is weird. A while ago Germany made a payment from a gas company owned by Gazprom which Germany seized a bit earlier. Gazprom rejected payment, no shit, Germans paid by money that was just stolen from them.
 

Offline JohanH

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Heat pumps, heat pumps.

And heat pumps.

Add some solar panels if you can.

On macro level we need more nuclear (in addition to wind and solar).

In Finland we don't use almost any gas at all, except industry. It should be possible also in other countries.
 
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Offline wraper

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Heat pumps, heat pumps.

And heat pumps.

Add some solar panels if you can.

On macro level we need more nuclear (in addition to wind and solar).

In Finland we don't use almost any gas at all, except industry. It should be possible also in other countries.
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Heat pumps reduce dependency on gas, which is going to be necessary anyway. 

And around here they are still cheaper than gas, e.g. 40p/kWh electricity with COP=4 is 10p/kWh of heat roughly, meanwhile gas is 10p/kWh but once you include gas boiler efficiency (80-85% in good circumstances under high load and low delta-T) then the cost is greater.

Though the difference is still too small to make a huge amount of financial sense to switch to heat pumps, given one would cost ca. £10,000 to install in a modern home.
 

Offline Miyuki

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Heat pumps, heat pumps.

And heat pumps.

Add some solar panels if you can.

On macro level we need more nuclear (in addition to wind and solar).

In Finland we don't use almost any gas at all, except industry. It should be possible also in other countries.
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.
You just need the coal until there will be a suitable storage technology
But the activist and politics, who are mostly far far away and don't know the problems of common people, said no
 

Offline tszaboo

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We were connected to Russian/Belarus electric grid where we could buy very cheap electricity. In the name of energy independence we disconnected from it earlier this year. An effect on Russia/Belarus is close to zero. They do not get to sell a bit of cheap electricity, we pay 10 times more. Does not sound like independence to me. And Germany shutting down their nuclear plants in favor of natural gas in the name of ecology was simply moronic, not to say hypocritical.
In any case, you would need to make new agreements on gas transport from the various countries and oblasts anyway in the near future. There needs to be agreements after the dissolution on which country has ownership of the oil fields, or the pipelines. I don't expect this to be a long term problem, we just have to survive like one winter.

Heat pumps reduce dependency on gas, which is going to be necessary anyway. 

And around here they are still cheaper than gas, e.g. 40p/kWh electricity with COP=4 is 10p/kWh of heat roughly, meanwhile gas is 10p/kWh but once you include gas boiler efficiency (80-85% in good circumstances under high load and low delta-T) then the cost is greater.

Though the difference is still too small to make a huge amount of financial sense to switch to heat pumps, given one would cost ca. £10,000 to install in a modern home.
In a moderate climate, like here, I think an air to air heat pump, which is an air conditioner can be used most of the time.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Agreed.  I don't know so much about other countries but the UK rarely experiences many days below 0C.   Heatpumps can maintain a year round COP of 3.5~4.  You also have the option to use a hybrid system which burns gas on the coldest days but uses the heatpump for most heating otherwise.

And summer AC is going to become more and more important, especially for people who work from home!
« Last Edit: August 25, 2022, 11:27:11 am by tom66 »
 

Online tautech

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The other option is to tear up the Paris accord and get back to exploring for fossil fuels and reopen coal mines and the like.
Winter without heating is downright miserable for anyone let alone the elderly that fought and worked bloody hard for what we have today without us turning our backs on their sacrifices.
Speaking of which, if Europe had made some back in February and punched back the world wouldn’t be in the mess it is today.
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Offline wraper

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I doubt Russia would allow anything but a total withdrawal of Western support from Ukraine before turning the gas taps back to full.  Whilst it is almost certainly hurting Russia to only sell 20% of its gas (the country's GDP is 50% energy export and the majority customer is Europe; like EU there is strong focus to one customer - there are not enough pipelines to supply Asia, or export LNG etc.),  I fear that Russia can probably outlast a reduction in gas purchases. 
This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing  :palm:.
 
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing  :palm:.

Quite possibly true (would need to do the maths) for gas, though for oil I'm not sure I agree. Oil prices are not as insanely inflated and oil demand has dropped by 50%.  Also you cannot forget the other sanctions are having a strong effect on the Russian economy.  GDP is projected to fall by 25%.

I do wonder if Russia will however turn gas off entirely, as you say it could be quite profitable for them to keep Europe just sipping away at inflated levels.  But this just highlights the ridiculousness of Nord-Stream and Germany's dependence on Russian gas.  They were warned by the Baltic states and Poland that this was a terrible idea. 
 

Offline Miyuki

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Heat pumps reduce dependency on gas, which is going to be necessary anyway. 

And around here they are still cheaper than gas, e.g. 40p/kWh electricity with COP=4 is 10p/kWh of heat roughly, meanwhile gas is 10p/kWh but once you include gas boiler efficiency (80-85% in good circumstances under high load and low delta-T) then the cost is greater.

Though the difference is still too small to make a huge amount of financial sense to switch to heat pumps, given one would cost ca. £10,000 to install in a modern home.
In a moderate climate, like here, I think an air to air heat pump, which is an air conditioner can be used most of the time.
A modern air-source heat pump can keep COP above 3 down to -10°C ranges when need just low-temperature output for room heating and not deal with too much evaporator frosting
 
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Offline richard.cs

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The UK government had the opportunity to life-extend both reactors at Hinkley Point B by 18 months which would have enormously helped over the next two winters. EDF put a plan to the UK government in spring this year asking for money to produce the safety case and implement any upgrades needed. It was rejected, and both reactors are now shutdown for good loosing us 1.3 GW.
 

Offline JohanH

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What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.

There is a big point. If gas and electricity cost the same, with a heat pump you create 3-5 times more energy than with gas (or direct resistive electrical heating). Even my old mother in law, now living in an empty house of her own, is now installing a ground source heat pump and ditching the oil boiler. And she isn't rich, living on low pension. Here, holes are usually drilled into the bedrock (our house has a 170 m hole) and it is done in one day. Drilling cost about 5000 €. The state gives some funding when switching from fossil to heat pumps.

In middle and southern parts of Europe, air-to-air heat pumps work fine, I would say down to -10 °C. Of course they do work at even lower temps, but it becomes wasteful. Here in the north, ground source is best.
 

Offline JohanH

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So we are suffering for nothing  :palm:.

I prefer to suffer in solidarity with Ukraine!
 
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Offline wraper

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What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.

There is a big point. If gas and electricity cost the same, with a heat pump you create 3-5 times more energy than with gas (or direct resistive electrical heating). Even my old mother in law, now living in an empty house of her own, is now installing a ground source heat pump and ditching the oil boiler. And she isn't rich, living on low pension. Here, holes are usually drilled into the bedrock (our house has a 170 m hole) and it is done in one day. Drilling cost about 5000 €. The state gives some funding when switching from fossil to heat pumps.

In middle and southern parts of Europe, air-to-air heat pumps work fine, I would say down to -10 °C. Of course they do work at even lower temps, but it becomes wasteful. Here in the north, ground source is best.
The problem is that gas is still significantly cheaper and a lot of electricity is generated from gas. And electricity will become even more expensive if demand increases. Not to say investment you need to make for the heating system replacement.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2022, 11:49:00 am by wraper »
 

Offline madires

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Heat pumps, heat pumps.

And heat pumps.

In many cases yes, but not in all. If your central heating needs a high flow temperature simply replacing the gas/oil furnace with a heat pump doesn't work (you have to invest much more to 'upgrade' your house). Doesn't work for historic buildings (over here) and large buildings are a challenge also. And with heat pumps and EVs we nead to generate at least two times more electric power than we currently do.
 

Offline wraper

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So we are suffering for nothing  :palm:.

I prefer to suffer in solidarity with Ukraine!
If I'm going to suffer for some purpose, at least I expect some result from it. I don't see and don't expect any as far as things are going.
 
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Online tautech

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The UK government had the opportunity to life-extend both reactors at Hinkley Point B by 18 months which would have enormously helped over the next two winters. EDF put a plan to the UK government in spring this year asking for money to produce the safety case and implement any upgrades needed. It was rejected, and both reactors are now shutdown for good loosing us 1.3 GW.
Which is only postponing the real hard decisions of what provides each country’s energy solution.
Some seem to think even in the 21st century we should spend our evenings in candlelight !
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Offline nctnico

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The other option is to tear up the Paris accord and get back to exploring for fossil fuels and reopen coal mines and the like.
No. Not because of CO2 but because burning coal causes massive amounts of SO2 and NOx pollution which in turn makes people sick. Unless ofcourse you want to make sure your population doesn't get too old (like they seem to want in China).

Nuclear is the best option for now.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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