Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79181 times)

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Offline Siwastaja

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I dunno how effective solar panels would be where you live, but yeah. I kind of suspect that solar panel prices may go through the roof due to a sudden increase in demand and suppliers taking advantage of it.

I have been enjoying the ridiculous spot prices, I'm paying fixed 0.051€/kWh for energy I buy (plus 0.08€/kWh for transmission), and selling my PV generation to grid for the spot price, maybe 0.40€/kWh average, some hours nearly 1€/kWh. This has completely turned the strategy around, trying to minimize own use, by timing the heat pump starting from 18:00.

Solar panel prices have not skyrocketed, pretty modest price increases. However, there seems to be some kind of shortage of inverters (and more significant price increases), and of course I can only imagine how difficult it is now to get installers.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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I dunno how effective solar panels would be where you live, but yeah. I kind of suspect that solar panel prices may go through the roof due to a sudden increase in demand and suppliers taking advantage of it.

I have been enjoying the ridiculous spot prices, I'm paying fixed 0.051€/kWh for energy I buy (plus 0.08€/kWh for transmission), and selling my PV generation to grid for the spot price, maybe 0.40€/kWh average, some hours nearly 1€/kWh. This has completely turned the strategy around, trying to minimize own use, by timing the heat pump starting from 18:00.

Solar panel prices have not skyrocketed, pretty modest price increases. However, there seems to be some kind of shortage of inverters (and more significant price increases), and of course I can only imagine how difficult it is now to get installers.

For now. So I suggest investing now. Given not just this individual behavior we're describing here, but the fact that a lot of big countries are now going to invest even more massively in renewables, it seems very likely that prices are going to skyrocket. The only question is just when. So probably better hurry up while it's still doable.

And for those who live in appartments or don't own their house, they'll be stuck with whatever governments and energy distributors will offer them.
 

Online coppice

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It is quite an obvious assumption that bricks can be used for outside walls. nctnico must be thinking about some special snowflake indoor-only brick. Never heard about such a thing.
There are many types of brick and block which are not suitable for exterior walls. Some can kinda be used for an exterior wall, but only beneath a waterproof screed. Some are for use on the inner layer of a cavity wall. Some are only for use for interior walls.

Just try using exposing an aerated concrete brick/block to the weather for a while.


 

Online coppice

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I still don't understand Germany's logic towards turning off nuclear.
Logic? They emotionally reacted to the Chernobyl incident. Softened a bit, and started to reinstated nuclear as at least a short term necessity. Then the Fukushima incident happened, and emotion ruled once again.
 

Online coppice

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Our so-called Conservative government is going to ban petrol cars in 2030. Less than 8 years from now. It's mental. Poor people won't be able to afford the increased prices of second-hand petrol and diesel cars. It's completely insane and unnecessary. EV sales will eventually overtake ICE cars and replace them at a pace people can cope with.
https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/
I think they look at the UK's pathetic remaining car industry and think "not much to destroy there, so there's nothing much to protect". You can't expect their little minds to capture the full picture, can you?
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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I still don't understand Germany's logic towards turning off nuclear.
Logic? They emotionally reacted to the Chernobyl incident. Softened a bit, and started to reinstated nuclear as at least a short term necessity. Then the Fukushima incident happened, and emotion ruled once again.

Nah, I think the relationship between Germany and nuclear energy is more complex than this and is rooted in older events.
 

Offline Nusa

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The so called "Operation Thermostat"  >:D is happening in US, just curious if similar case will happen also in EU countries especially in winter ?
As fact that many EU leaders already warned few days ago to their citizens about energy crisis to come.

Source -> https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency

Quote ...

Thousands of Xcel customers locked out of thermostats during 'energy emergency'

22,000 people lost control of temperatures in their homes for hours
...
From that linked article for those who won't read it:
Quote
"It's a voluntary program. Let's remember that this is something that customers choose to be a part of based on the incentives," said Emmett Romine, vice president of customer solutions and innovation at Xcel.

Customers receive a $100 credit for enrolling in the program and $25 annually, but Romine said customers also agree to give up some control to save energy and money and make the system more reliable.
Customers opted in (possibly without fully understanding what they were signing up for) to receive a reduced cost supply in return for remote shedding being enabled on their thermostat. Which left them unable to set it to cool below 26 degrees, not some mass disaster, not some monopoly/government over reach, a $$ compensated minor inconvenience.

Gotta wonder how many of them were cute enough to hack the environment instead? For instance, heat up something in the microwave and set or tie it under the thermostat. Repeat as necessary.
 

Offline Alti

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This EVU-Sperre seems irrational at first glance, it over-complicates a simple and old idea. In case people need more heat (super cold winter, blackout, whatever), they are going to be forced to turn the resistive heating COP=1 on (because it costs €0.3/kWh whole day).

Gotta wonder how many of them were cute enough to hack the environment instead? For instance, heat up something in the microwave and set or tie it under the thermostat. Repeat as necessary.
Same concept of taking over the control, one for heating in DE and one for cooling in US. This approach seems intrinsically flawed, IMHO.
 

Online Someone

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This EVU-Sperre seems irrational at first glance, it over-complicates a simple and old idea. In case people need more heat (super cold winter, blackout, whatever), they are going to be forced to turn the resistive heating COP=1 on (because it costs €0.3/kWh whole day).

Gotta wonder how many of them were cute enough to hack the environment instead? For instance, heat up something in the microwave and set or tie it under the thermostat. Repeat as necessary.
Same concept of taking over the control, one for heating in DE and one for cooling in US. This approach seems intrinsically flawed, IMHO.
On controlled tariffs its usually on the contract/agreement that all heating loads are connected to the moderated supply and you cannot run any alternatives on the regular supply. You get the cheaper rate in return for less flexibility, dont want it less flexible? then you dont get it cheap.

Also remember the majority of the population don't understand thermostats (high temperature = heats up faster !$@$@!!) and for all the snakiness in this thread... air-air mini splits (and many commercial multi-head units) the remote control is just a set of buttons/display and the temperature sensor is buried inside the fan/head unit.
 

Offline Alti

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(..) that all heating loads are connected to the moderated supply and you cannot run any alternatives on the regular supply.
Shouldn't. That is exactly why this is stupid. The very first thing people are going to do when cold is to turn on any kettle, oven and toaster they have. With air conditioning they are going to "heat something in microwave oven..." or plug in their less efficient portable AC. This whole concept is no different than a 60-yo two tariff meter with a second tariff set at rip-off price. Same results expected.
 

Online Marco

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Most people only really respond to pricing incentives to consume less when the bill comes in and they go broke, but that's generally way too late.
 

Offline langwadt

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The so called "Operation Thermostat"  >:D is happening in US, just curious if similar case will happen also in EU countries especially in winter ?
As fact that many EU leaders already warned few days ago to their citizens about energy crisis to come.

Source -> https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency

Quote ...

Thousands of Xcel customers locked out of thermostats during 'energy emergency'

22,000 people lost control of temperatures in their homes for hours
...
From that linked article for those who won't read it:
Quote
"It's a voluntary program. Let's remember that this is something that customers choose to be a part of based on the incentives," said Emmett Romine, vice president of customer solutions and innovation at Xcel.

Customers receive a $100 credit for enrolling in the program and $25 annually, but Romine said customers also agree to give up some control to save energy and money and make the system more reliable.
Customers opted in (possibly without fully understanding what they were signing up for) to receive a reduced cost supply in return for remote shedding being enabled on their thermostat. Which left them unable to set it to cool below 26 degrees, not some mass disaster, not some monopoly/government over reach, a $$ compensated minor inconvenience.

Gotta wonder how many of them were cute enough to hack the environment instead? For instance, heat up something in the microwave and set or tie it under the thermostat. Repeat as necessary.

back in the 80's my dad installed a system to lower the temperature at programmable times, it was basically a power resistors in a plastic holder that snapped onto each radiator thermostat valve
 

Online Someone

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(..) that all heating loads are connected to the moderated supply and you cannot run any alternatives on the regular supply.
Shouldn't. That is exactly why this is stupid. The very first thing people are going to do when cold is to turn on any kettle, oven and toaster they have. With air conditioning they are going to "heat something in microwave oven..." or plug in their less efficient portable AC. This whole concept is no different than a 60-yo two tariff meter with a second tariff set at rip-off price. Same results expected.
Way to butcher the quote so it means something entirely different. The contract with the supplier is you get cheap power by agreeing that you won't move the load to another supply when it suits you. It is a contract, that may well be poorly enforced since so few consumers are able to move the large loads to another source, but the agreement is that the load cannot be powered at the customers convenience.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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So Nord Stream 1 is now off for good,  "oh no, an oil leak was discovered Vlad!  We'll have to switch it all off!"

And the price begins to climb again: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Can the EU survive with NS1 off for the rest of the year?  There's enough gas storage in Germany to survive the winter but what about next spring, summer, etc? There will be still demand from heavy industry, if any is still economically viable.
 

Online nctnico

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Groningen...
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline BravoV

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So Nord Stream 1 is now off for good,  "oh no, an oil leak was discovered Vlad!  We'll have to switch it all off!"

And the price begins to climb again: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Can the EU survive with NS1 off for the rest of the year?  There's enough gas storage in Germany to survive the winter but what about next spring, summer, etc? There will be still demand from heavy industry, if any is still economically viable.

Steel furnace plants in German already stopped operation and being closed down just few days ago, feel sorry for the workers.  :-\

-> https://www.wsj.com/articles/arcelormittal-closes-two-steel-plants-amid-european-energy-crisis-11662136823

-> https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/arcelormittal-shut-blast-furnace-german-plant-gas-prices-soar-2022-09-02/

While in UK according to Bloomberg ...

-> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/six-in-10-british-factories-at-risk-of-going-under-as-bills-soar
« Last Edit: September 05, 2022, 01:03:00 pm by BravoV »
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Huge concerns if fertiliser production falls, I hope that there is some intervention soon.

Also in regards to Groningen gas field, I thought it was (a) quite close to depletion and (b) causing subsidence/earthquakes, and therefore extracting more gas is going to be a challenge (both politically and economically)
 

Online themadhippy

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Quote
I hope that there is some intervention soon.
That all depends on how much the company's involved have "donated" to the tory party

 

Offline Nusa

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Totally predictable result of weaponizing the economy, aka sanctions, when you know beforehand that the other side has some aces up their sleeve.
 

Offline Faringdon

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Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity supplied in 2020, having surpassed coal in 2016 and nuclear in 2018. It is the largest source of renewable electricity in the UK.

So 25%....so why not build another 3 x what we already have?...then isnt that close to 100% of elec supplied by wind?.........ditto other countries...like Denmark where 47% elec is by wind.
Denmark owns Greenland, which has an arctic coast, with loads of fossil fuels, which they could start flogging to us all if they wanted.

Or is it a NIMBY question...
And what about fracking?
I dont care if they frack under my bed, get the frackers back!

And solar isnt being used enough either, in all countries.

Why not more tidal lagoons like  Swansea Bay...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_Lagoon_Swansea_Bay
« Last Edit: September 05, 2022, 06:28:50 pm by Faringdon »
'Perfection' is the enemy of 'perfectly satisfactory'
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Totally predictable result of weaponizing the economy, aka sanctions, when you know beforehand that the other side has some aces up their sleeve.

Specifically stupid is to first cause doubling of price by saying "we are going to stop buying your product", yet keep buying said product for half a year, monetizing the other party in the process, more than ever per delivered product, to the point they can totally afford cutting the supply just for fun.
 
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Offline Nusa

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Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity supplied in 2020, having surpassed coal in 2016 and nuclear in 2018. It is the largest source of renewable electricity in the UK.

So 25%....so why not build another 3 x what we already have?...then isnt that close to 100% of elec supplied by wind?.........ditto other countries...like Denmark where 47% elec is by wind.
Denmark owns Greenland, which has an arctic coast, with loads of fossil fuels, which they could start flogging to us all if they wanted.

Or is it a NIMBY question...
And what about fracking?
I dont care if they frack under my bed, get the frackers back!

And solar isnt being used enough either, in all countries.

Why not more tidal lagoons like  Swansea Bay...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_Lagoon_Swansea_Bay

The answer to all the why not energy questions is that it takes time, measured in years, to build up that infrastructure. What does one do in the meantime? Worse yet, what happens to all that infrastructure in a few years when the cheaper sources of energy come back and they can't compete anymore?

As for fracking, it's got a history of negative effects, like contaminating groundwater (where does the UK get their fresh water?), earth subsidence, creating earthquakes, methane releases, and more...you can google that easily. To be used in moderation and foresight, or you're destroying one essential resource for another.
 

Online tggzzz

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Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity supplied in 2020, having surpassed coal in 2016 and nuclear in 2018. It is the largest source of renewable electricity in the UK.

So 25%....so why not build another 3 x what we already have?...then isnt that close to 100% of elec supplied by wind?.........ditto other countries...like Denmark where 47% elec is by wind.
Denmark owns Greenland, which has an arctic coast, with loads of fossil fuels, which they could start flogging to us all if they wanted.

Or is it a NIMBY question...
And what about fracking?
I dont care if they frack under my bed, get the frackers back!

And solar isnt being used enough either, in all countries.

Why not more tidal lagoons like  Swansea Bay...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_Lagoon_Swansea_Bay

Numbers, not adjectives, rule.

The key word is dispatchability.

If you crunch the measured wind output in the UK (from gridwatch), there is a remarkably simple rule of thumb. If the peak output is X (currently X is approx 12GW IIRC), then for X%.of the time the wind output is less than  X% of the peak.

Yes, that means for 3 days a year the output is <1% of peak, I.e. 0.12GW. Where are you going to get the other 99% for those 3 days? Have lots of other generating plant lying idle except for then?

That's why whoever creates grid level energy storage will become as rich as Croesus.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2022, 06:49:00 pm by tggzzz »
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 

Offline Faringdon

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what happens to all that infrastructure in a few years when the cheaper sources of energy come back and they can't compete anymore?
Ive got a funny feeling that Russian gas has gone...forever, for UK/USA/EU
'Perfection' is the enemy of 'perfectly satisfactory'
 

Offline langwadt

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Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity supplied in 2020, having surpassed coal in 2016 and nuclear in 2018. It is the largest source of renewable electricity in the UK.

So 25%....so why not build another 3 x what we already have?...then isnt that close to 100% of elec supplied by wind?.........ditto other countries...like Denmark where 47% elec is by wind.
Denmark owns Greenland, which has an arctic coast, with loads of fossil fuels, which they could start flogging to us all if they wanted.

No Denmark does not own Greenland, they are part of the kingdom but have home rule and natural resources on Greenland belong to Greenland
 


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