Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79171 times)

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Online SiliconWizard

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So Nord Stream 1 is now off for good,  "oh no, an oil leak was discovered Vlad!  We'll have to switch it all off!"

And the price begins to climb again: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Can the EU survive with NS1 off for the rest of the year?  There's enough gas storage in Germany to survive the winter but what about next spring, summer, etc? There will be still demand from heavy industry, if any is still economically viable.

Maybe that should have been pondered earlier?
 

Online themadhippy

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Can the EU survive with NS1 off for the rest of the year?  There's enough gas storage in Germany to survive the winter but what about next spring, summer, etc?
Dont forget some of that gas is the uk's that the  europeans are  looking after for us.We sold it to you cheap and plan to buy it back in a few months at a much higher rate.
https://www.share-talk.com/uk-will-be-forced-to-buy-back-gas-shipped-to-europe-for-storage/
 

Online RJSV

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Sorry, but that great big beast you want to discuss;
It's politicized.
   Russians observed American withdrawal, from Afghanistan.  Yeah, take out the army / military protection FIRST.  THEN, try leaving a bunch of resources, like 55 billion $ worth, armored trucks, Night Vision equipment...you name it.
   I've heard, Afghans now running a 'nice' military equipment bargain sales.
Sorry, you brought it up, no offense, but...this is Politics and so, the response is,...political.
 

Online tom66Topic starter

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Maybe that should have been pondered earlier?

Possibly - but it also shows how desperate Russia is.  What else can they do now?  Europe knows the gas isn't coming back, so they should pile even more into Ukraine and hope that the winter is warm.  Meanwhile, production from Norway/UK/Netherlands is up, some older nuke plants are coming back online or won't be shut off soon, and more storage will open.  And Germany will have more LNG terminals.
 

Online nctnico

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Maybe that should have been pondered earlier?

Possibly - but it also shows how desperate Russia is.  What else can they do now?  Europe knows the gas isn't coming back, so they should pile even more into Ukraine and hope that the winter is warm.  Meanwhile, production from Norway/UK/Netherlands is up, some older nuke plants are coming back online or won't be shut off soon, and more storage will open.  And Germany will have more LNG terminals.
In the end the situation will be better for Europe. The transition into more diverse energy sources needed to be made anyway. Poetin just ripped off the bandaid in one go. IMHO Germany should start dismantling the Nordstream gas pipes at their end.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Online wraper

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Maybe that should have been pondered earlier?

Possibly - but it also shows how desperate Russia is.  What else can they do now?  Europe knows the gas isn't coming back, so they should pile even more into Ukraine and hope that the winter is warm.  Meanwhile, production from Norway/UK/Netherlands is up, some older nuke plants are coming back online or won't be shut off soon, and more storage will open.  And Germany will have more LNG terminals.
Who's desperate? Russia is making way more money on energy sources than the last year. What you all should understand is Russian mentality. They will never submit because you f. them in the ass with sanctions. In 99% of cases they will rather do something in spite even if it hurts them even more. Not to say they have much higher pain threshold than Europeans. It's done not out desperation but so that Europe does not imagine it can feel warm and cozy while hurting Russia.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2022, 02:05:09 pm by wraper »
 

Online tom66Topic starter

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Who's desperate? Russia is making way more money on energy sources than the last year. What you all should understand is Russian mentality. They will never submit because you f. them in the ass with sanctions. In 99% of cases they will rather do something is spite even if it hurts them even more. Not to say they have much higher pain threshold than Europeans. It's done not out desperation but so that Europe does not imagine it feel warm and cozy while hurting Russia.

This may have been true when NS1 was running at 20%, as high price of gas meant that 20% * cost was still high.

But now it's at 0%.  Only flow into EU is via Ukraine and TurkStream and price is falling...

Meanwhile they are flaring off gas that they cannot sell, and cannot convert into LNG to sell to China et al.

 

Online nctnico

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Who's desperate? Russia is making way more money on energy sources than the last year. What you all should understand is Russian mentality. They will never submit because you f. them in the ass with sanctions. In 99% of cases they will rather do something is spite even if it hurts them even more. Not to say they have much higher pain threshold than Europeans. It's done not out desperation but so that Europe does not imagine it feel warm and cozy while hurting Russia.

This may have been true when NS1 was running at 20%, as high price of gas meant that 20% * cost was still high.

But now it's at 0%.  Only flow into EU is via Ukraine and TurkStream and price is falling...

Meanwhile they are flaring off gas that they cannot sell, and cannot convert into LNG to sell to China et al.
Yup. It is not like Russia suddenly has extra capacity to export gas to China. They'd need to put extra pipes in place for which they need components from abroad...
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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This may have been true when NS1 was running at 20%, as high price of gas meant that 20% * cost was still high.
But now it's at 0%.  Only flow into EU is via Ukraine and TurkStream and price is falling...

They already made full year worth of profit (possibly much much more) by selling the product at increased price while production cost was the same.

It was a totally conscious political decision by Germany to monetize Russia's war machine by artificially doubling the gas price and deliberately continue buying it, and ask the puppets in Finland to monetize Germany's gas customers so that the increased price doesn't reflect into the bills, finally so that the average Germans don't need to know/feel what is going on. It seems the Finland's "Germany gas" bill is now at around 30 billion and increasing, which means around 20000 EUR bill for the average Finnish taxpayer. As a result, we are now done as a country, it seems irreversible now. (Some might remember me saying we can probably take one such debt "package" more and that's it, maybe a month or two ago. It came faster than anyone imagined.)

We can do nothing but to watch this farce, and of course re-design our lives from scratch, for example become more self-sufficient with food and energy, stop going to work (or at least stop getting paid for it), and so on. And of course, with no public healthcare anymore, and with no money to buy private services, better not fall sick. Full blown survivalist shit we all laughed at just a few years ago.

We live in a total clown world.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2022, 11:43:21 am by Siwastaja »
 
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Online wraper

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Meanwhile they are flaring off gas that they cannot sell, and cannot convert into LNG to sell to China et al.
EU cannot get LNG out of nowhere either. It's all about who gives up first. And I'm pretty sure it won't be Russia.
Yup. It is not like Russia suddenly has extra capacity to export gas to China. They'd need to put extra pipes in place for which they need components from abroad...
They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
 
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Offline Siwastaja

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Germany still has a good asset in their hands, temporary extension of their shut down nuclear power plants. I'm not saying it's not without issues, but this is, in the end, political decision, based on weighing different risks. Remember, Finland can't pay for the gas bills much longer, that resource is soon exhausted. So the options really are very expensive and/or cold showers (risking political instability), monetizing Russia's war machine even more (they sure are willing to sell), or resurrecting some of the NPPs. To me, the NPP option is obvious even though I'm not a huge fan of nuclear at all and think we should get rid of it long-term.
 

Offline voltsandjolts

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In 99% of cases they will rather do something is spite even if it hurts them even more.

Yup.
The Russian government mafia care little for foreigners or indeed Russian citizens.
Screw them all for the crazy ideaology of a corrupt authoritarian mega-block.
They like to order extra-judicial killings, but maybe some are now looking over their shoulders. Hehe.
 

Offline MT

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Strawman arguments attacking other people's personality and intent is unimpressive.
Precisely what you demonstrably did! Therefore i kindly ask you, please stop being a hypocrite and introducing politics to this thread and the forum in general.

As i pointed out in this threads very first page you have the option to join and actually do something for UK instead
of letting UK go down the toilet by wasting your time attacking other people's personality , intents and opinions.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4379452/#msg4379452
https://dontpay.uk

And for those who constantly blame Russia for causing "whatever country's" energy shortage:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/european-energy-crisis-natural-gas-price-outlook-norway-russia-supply-2022-8?op=1
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/norway-rakes-highest-ever-oil-revenues-prices-surge
https://www.rigzone.com/news/who_is_europes_top_gas_supplier-02-aug-2022-169831-article/

Perhaps as a UK citizen you could sober up a bit tggzz and actually learn something , but i doubt.
UK Column:
UKC Interview: Vernon Coleman - From The Medicine Man to the Cabbage War - An Analysis of Medical Corruption and Insanity
https://odysee.com/@ukcolumn:9/ukcolumn-news-010922:7
 

Online nctnico

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Meanwhile they are flaring off gas that they cannot sell, and cannot convert into LNG to sell to China et al.
EU cannot get LNG out of nowhere either. It's all about who gives up first. And I'm pretty sure it won't be Russia.
LNG isn't the only option. There is lots of gas in Europe. The biggest problem is lack of political will to pump it up. Just like turning up nuclear power.

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Yup. It is not like Russia suddenly has extra capacity to export gas to China. They'd need to put extra pipes in place for which they need components from abroad...
They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
That takes years; not a short term viable option.

You forget the easiest way out by far for the Russians is to simply get rid of Poetin and his weird ideas. Nobody is against Russia; Poetin and his regime are the problem.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2022, 01:46:30 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online nctnico

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We can do nothing but to watch this farce, and of course re-design our lives from scratch, for example become more self-sufficient with food and energy, stop going to work (or at least stop getting paid for it), and so on. And of course, with no public healthcare anymore, and with no money to buy private services, better not fall sick. Full blown survivalist shit we all laughed at just a few years ago.
You are being overly dramatic. Europe was shot to bits not that long ago and we recovered just fine. Every few years there is a crisis. You know what they say: 7 good years are followed by 7 bad years and vice versa. This is not the first time things go bad and it won't be the last time.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2022, 01:35:17 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Online Marco

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The timing is likely due to the upcoming G7 oil price cap, trying to break unity before there's a vote.

It's all a giant game of chicken.
 
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Online wraper

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They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
That takes years; not a short term viable option.

You forget the easiest way out by far for the Russians is to simply get rid of Poetin and his weird ideas.
EU securing alternative sources of gas or other energy is not a short term option either.
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Nobody is against Russia; Poetin and his regime are the problem.
Then why sanctions target usual Russian individuals a lot? I talk with Russians occasionally and didn't notice any will to get rid of Putin, or that their live had become that much worse. Overall I see that sanctions affect me personally disproportionally more than usual Russians.
 

Offline tszaboo

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They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
No they are not. Maybe they would be capable to make pipes, but all the rest of the industrial machinery and all the sensors are imported. And with the current embargo they are not getting enough parts to even make do. Civil aviation is slowly hutting down, where planes are dismantled for their used parts, and pilots are told to "break less".

Quote
The whole war is a battle between those two systems; between the Empire and the Foundation; between the big and the little. To seize control of a world, they bribe with immense ships that can make war, but lack all economic significance. We, on the other hand, bribe with little things, useless in war, but vital to prosperity and profits. ‘A king, or a Commdor, will take the ships and even make war. Arbitrary rulers throughout history have bartered their subjects’ welfare for what they consider honour, and glory, and conquest. But it’s still the little things in life that count – and Asper Argo won’t stand up against the economic depression that will sweep all Korell in two or three years.”
― Isaac Asimov, Foundation
 

Online nctnico

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They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
No they are not. Maybe they would be capable to make pipes, but all the rest of the industrial machinery and all the sensors are imported. And with the current embargo they are not getting enough parts to even make do. Civil aviation is slowly hutting down, where planes are dismantled for their used parts, and pilots are told to "break less".
Well, they could try to get pipeline parts from China. But it would still mean the construction of thousands of kilometers of pipeline through extremely rough terrain OR a long detour to get the gas to China. But it is not a given that China will want to buy the gas and oil.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2022, 02:39:26 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online tom66Topic starter

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Especially because China buying Russian gas exposes them to the risk of sanctions from the USA.  There's really no advantage to them besides a small cut in the price per MWh, and China's economy is in enough of a deathspin right now without pissing off its biggest trading partner.
 

Online themadhippy

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You are being overly dramatic. Europe was shot to bits not that long ago and we recovered just fine.
difference was ,back then it was the germans turning on the gas not the russians turning it off
 

Offline BravoV

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You forget the easiest way out by far for the Russians is to simply get rid of Poetin and his weird ideas. Nobody is against Russia; Poetin and his regime are the problem.

Easiest ? Thats the plan from the start of the heavy sanctions and robbing Russia's reserved money, with the confident it will cripple their economy, and then make Russians life harder, and then people will be pouring on the street to kick out the evil Putin and toppled him. Then install Western puppet to rule the whole Russia, meaning free/ultra cheap gas & oil forever ... total win.

Problem is the reality on the ground is happening sort of inverted way, victims (head of states) of Western countries are dropping like flies, instead of Putin.  :-DD

EU, UK and US people are unhappy with the economy, inflation, crazy energy price and etc, and the people are starting to protest on the street (recent massive EU countries like Czech (Prague)) protest and others (get silenced/muted by Western MSM)), major strikes like in UK, and so far it managed to topple the leaders (so called Zelensky Curse) starting to inflict victims like from Italy's PM Mario Draghi, recently UK's PM Boris Johnson and who's next ? Even the newly appointed UK's PM probably won't last long peacefully finishing her term completely, if the Brits hardships keep worsening each months .. for years to come. Heck, even US Joe Biden him self is not standing firm on his position as POTUS too, lets see what happened if the opposition (Rep) swept the power at the upcoming mid-term.
 
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Online themadhippy

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recently UK's PM Boris Johnson
Energy prices had very little to do with his demise .More he was a useless lying ***t
 
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Online nctnico

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You forget the easiest way out by far for the Russians is to simply get rid of Poetin and his weird ideas. Nobody is against Russia; Poetin and his regime are the problem.

Easiest ? Thats the plan from the start of the heavy sanctions and robbing Russia's reserved money, with the confident it will cripple their economy, and then make Russians life harder, and then people will be pouring on the street to kick out the evil Putin and toppled him. Then install Western puppet to rule the whole Russia, meaning free/ultra cheap gas & oil forever ... total win.
You think Poetin isn't a puppet? If you look at who is gaining the most at the moment: the US. It would not surprise if it turns out the US has helped put Poetin in place to stir up trouble. Before Poetin, Europe and Russia where having a very good economic relations and these relations where getting better all the time.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2022, 03:24:11 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline dietert1

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Western media lamenting about rising prices are hiding the fact that there won't be supplies for everybody, independent of price. As far as i know in Germany some energy-intensive production lines are already shutting down and recession is predicted. Others are talking about risk of de-industrialization.

Regards, Dieter
 


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