Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79119 times)

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Offline Vovk_Z

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Rusian own resources in land, minerals, etc are much-much larger than Ukrainian (and Russia positioned itself as a 'super-country'), so I don't see any reason for Putin to fight for our resources. It is just a usual imperial thing when 'an empire must expand' and 'we have to show those Ukrainians their place as our small brothers'.  It was always it, hundreds of years, since the 1650s. Russia (former Moskovia) has stolen the name 'Russ' from Ukraine (former 'Kyivan Rus') and Belorussia, and then, at the Russian Empire, come up with the name 'Малороссия' for Ukraine. 'Малороссия' word meaning is a 'Small-Russia'! So, Russian people are 'great Russians' with this. If they are 'Great Russians' they definitely must spread their 'Russian world' ('русский мир') across bordering countries. (/s)
« Last Edit: September 09, 2022, 11:41:51 am by Vovk_Z »
 
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Online tautech

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There is a difference between Ukraine and western countries. While Ukraine was invaded twice, in 2014 and in 2022, Nato/EU countries are were not yet.
FTFY
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Offline Vovk_Z

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There is a difference between Ukraine and western countries. While Ukraine was invaded twice, in 2014 and in 2022, Nato/EU countries are were not yet.
FTFY
And thanks to great life-saving Western help - Western countries won't know what is an invasion next years (tens of years), I'm sure now.
As a Ukrainian, I can't find enough words to appreciate it. Those two things - the Ukrainian army (and the whole Ukraine united against Russia) and Western help (united against Russia) - literally saved my life and many others. And it will be that until we are united.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2022, 12:02:29 pm by Vovk_Z »
 

Online tautech

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There is a difference between Ukraine and western countries. While Ukraine was invaded twice, in 2014 and in 2022, Nato/EU countries are were not yet.
FTFY
And thanks to great life-saving Western help - Western countries won't know what is an invasion next years (tens of years), I'm sure now.
As a Ukrainian, I can't find enough words to appreciate it. Those two things - the Ukrainian army (and the whole Ukraine united against Russia) and Western help (united against Russia) - literally saved my life and many others. And it will be that until we are united.
From the other side of the planet we in NZ watch in disbelief of what Ukraine is going through yet are more aghast that Europe as a whole would let it happen and even NATO formed after the last world troubles stands idly by and lets powers of veto be enacted to neuter any decisions they propose.
For months we have shaken our heads in disbelief that all your neighbors should stand by and watch what you have gone through and not for one minute think they might be next.

So sad, really it is.  :(     
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Online tom66Topic starter

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NATO has also learned an immense amount from supporting Ukraine - the Russian military is decades behind and their strategies and tactics are dependent upon obsolete logistics.

Perhaps the only advantage they have is in their anti-air systems, I seem to recall S400 is one of the most advanced in the world, S300 is not too far behind.  Still, they are expensive to build (many hundreds of millions $) and many have been destroyed already.  I wonder how many are left?  The sanctions on components are also surely making it hard to replace them.
 
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Offline AVGresponding

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Rusian own resources in land, minerals, etc are much-much larger than Ukrainian (and Russia positioned itself as a 'super-country'), so I don't see any reason for Putin to fight for our resources. It is just a usual imperial thing when 'an empire must expand' and 'we have to show those Ukrainians their place as our small brothers'.  It was always it, hundreds of years, since the 1650s. Russia (former Moskovia) has stolen the name 'Russ' from Ukraine (former 'Kyivan Rus') and Belorussia, and then, at the Russian Empire, come up with the name 'Малороссия' for Ukraine. 'Малороссия' word meaning is a 'Small-Russia'! So, Russian people are 'great Russians' with this. If they are 'Great Russians' they definitely must spread their 'Russian world' ('русский мир') across bordering countries. (/s)

I expect control of Black Sea ports is a major strategic consideration on Putin's part, though obviously the Russian Navy is a but shadow of the Soviet one.
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Offline Marco

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Perhaps the only advantage they have is in their anti-air systems, I seem to recall S400 is one of the most advanced in the world, S300 is not too far behind.
A bit of a shame then most of NATO relies on planes for offensive capabilities.

EU has been pretending the INF still exists the last few years.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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but denying Russians jobs, housing and socially stigmatising them seems very plausible.
That is a 100% untrue.

I can totally relate.

It is "well known" how Finnish authorities illegally take kids of Russians into custody. There are news stories about it! It is "well known" how Finland is the "most racist" country in Europe, this is repeatedly told by our very own leaders. It is "well known" how Finns are nazis.

Me and you understand where these stories originate from. Many do not.

If Russia had both resources and interests (motivation, something to gain) to attack Finland, they would do it, but also people like Zero999 would discuss on the internet how "there is usually some truth in the propaganda, and look these Western news articles that describe how Finland indeed has been most racist country in the EU, and there is some evidence of Finnish authorities taking kids of russians into custody..."

While in reality, it would be total bullshit, well conditioned over years or decades.

This works because the assumption of "there is some grain of truth in every statement" is usually a good working hypothesis, because it drives you to find more information. It becomes a problem when A) you are satisfied with the idea of there being some truth alone, without doing your homework really well, B) when the propagandist understands this assumption and utilizes it to their advantage.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2022, 03:14:29 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Online coppice

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but denying Russians jobs, housing and socially stigmatising them seems very plausible.
That is a 100% untrue.

I can totally relate.

It is "well known" how Finnish authorities illegally take kids of Russians into custody. There are news stories about it! It is "well known" how Finland is the "most racist" country in Europe, this is repeatedly told by our very own leaders. It is "well known" how Finns are nazis.

Me and you understand where these stories originate from. Many do not.

If Russia had both resources and interests (motivation, something to gain) to attack Finland, they would do it, but also people like Zero999 would discuss on the internet how "there is usually some truth in the propaganda, and look these Western news articles that describe how Finland indeed has been most racist country in the EU, and there is some evidence of Finnish authorities taking kids of russians into custody..."

While in reality, it would be total bullshit, well conditioned over years or decades.
We must never forget that Belgians eat babies. We know this must be true because the British media told us it was true, with none of them dissenting.
 

Online wraper

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So I received an electricity bill for last month. EUR 198.50 for puny 293 kWh, 2x more than for July for a bit less energy spent and about 5x more than last year. Wonderful, everything just wonderful. I guess by winter electricity + heating will be well above average household income in less wealthy regions of Latvia. And I feel real bad for pensioners, especially lonely ones as their pension is about EUR 370 in average and much less for unlucky ones.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2022, 04:18:02 pm by wraper »
 

Offline magic

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It is "well known" how Finland is the "most racist" country in Europe, this is repeatedly told by our very own leaders.
Not Poland and Hungary?
We need to up our game.

people like Zero999 would discuss on the internet how "there is usually some truth in the propaganda, and look these Western news articles that describe how Finland indeed has been most racist country in the EU, and there is some evidence of Finnish authorities taking kids of russians into custody..."

While in reality, it would be total bullshit, well conditioned over years or decades.
That's not Finland, but I have seen flamewars between minority Russians from the Baltics and the natives. I wouldn't exactly describe their coexistence as entirely peaceful. Kinda reminds me of the situation in America before 2010: everybody says racism is basically a thing of the past, until you ask the hyphenated themselves or those stuck living in their vicinity and find an inexplicable disdain for each other. Well, the rest is history in that case ::)
 

Offline AVGresponding

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It is "well known" how Finland is the "most racist" country in Europe, this is repeatedly told by our very own leaders.
Not Poland and Hungary?
We need to up our game.

people like Zero999 would discuss on the internet how "there is usually some truth in the propaganda, and look these Western news articles that describe how Finland indeed has been most racist country in the EU, and there is some evidence of Finnish authorities taking kids of russians into custody..."

While in reality, it would be total bullshit, well conditioned over years or decades.
That's not Finland, but I have seen flamewars between minority Russians from the Baltics and the natives. I wouldn't exactly describe their coexistence as entirely peaceful. Kinda reminds me of the situation in America before 2010: everybody says racism is basically a thing of the past, until you ask the hyphenated themselves or those stuck living in their vicinity and find an inexplicable disdain for each other. Well, the rest is history in that case ::)

Sadly I have to report that this is the case in the UK as well.
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Online vad

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I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering
This is Russian propaganda. There is no a single international agreement, ratified by any NATO member state or not, that spells out such promises.
Yes, there is.
It's called the Budapest memorandum. It states:

Quote
Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following:

Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.
Oh wait...
Where does the Budapest memorandum says that sovereign Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine cannot make their sovereign decision to join defensive pacts?

Also, in this memorandum the guarantees were given ___BY___ Russia, UK and US ___TO___ Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, for giving up their nuclear weapons and transferring them to Russia.

Russia, on the other hand, violated obligations it gave to Ukraine under the Budapest memorandum, using threats and military force against Ukraine since the war started in 2014.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2022, 10:59:03 pm by vad »
 
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Online vad

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The problem with propaganda is there's some element of truth to it. I can confirm there are Nazis in Ukraine. I've been there and witnessed it myself. It goes back to the Germans helping some Ukrainians, during the WW2. Obviously, Zelenskyy is no Nazi, neither are most Ukrainians and that's no justification for it. My point is, some of the money sent by the West is going to Nazis.
This is Russian propaganda. The truth is, Zelensky, who is ethnic Jew, got 73% popular vote during last elections.
What propaganda? I've been to Ukraine and personally spoken to Nazis there. They referred to blacks as niggers and that the country would be better without them and the Jews. I know Zelensky is a Jew. I never said he was a Nazi. I clearly said that's not the case. How free and fair the election was is another matter. It's much more complicated than Putin bad, Zelensky good. The two men have a lot in common, character wise. They're built of the same stuff. The difference is Putin did start it and is in the wrong, but that doesn't mean Zelensky is a saint.
I lived both in Russia and Ukraine, as well as in Australia, North America and South East Asia, and can attest that you can find all kind of people everywhere, including murderers, rapists, Nazis, KKK white suprematists, useful idiots.

I also speak Russian natively, and can give a little language lesson.

In Russian, word негр (nigger) does not carry negative connotation. Russia did not participate in Atlantic triangular slave trade, did not have native African slave population, and today this word is not associated with racism in Russia. The word негр came from Spanish word negro.

Word чёрный (black), on the other hand, has strong racial connotation when used in relation to a person. It usually used as insulting nickname for native Caucuses population (Chechens, Dagestan people,  Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijani). Stronger version is чёрножопый (literally black a$$)

Back on topic. I saw more Nazis and antisemites in Russia, than I saw in Ukraine. My former boss, born in St. Petersburg, USSR, emigrated from Russia, because of his Jewish descent, and he and his parents were oppressed throughput their live, at work (parents were scientists), at school and university, because of their ethnicity. Today there are many Nazis in Russian elite. Putin’s main ideologist Alexander Dugin, whose daughter was recently killed by explosion device that she personally brought from Donbass region of Ukrainian, is pure Nazi. Former minister and  former head of Russia’s Space Agency Dmitry Rogozin is Nazi. In his early days Rogozin , as politician, organized Русский Марш (Russian supremacist’s rally), and featured in election TV commercials with catch phrase “очистим Москву от мусора“, literally meaning deportation of human garbage (чёрножопыж emigrants). Even Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, is racist, and was active participant of Русский Марш (the Russian supremacist’s rallies).

I, myself, do not see much difference between Nazi ideology and Communist ideology, between Gestapo and KGB. Both are evil. Both murdered many millions people. Ukraine  is not a Nazi state. Russia is KGB state.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2022, 09:25:33 pm by vad »
 
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Online vad

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So I received an electricity bill for last month. EUR 198.50 for puny 293 kWh, 2x more than for July for a bit less energy spent and about 5x more than last year. Wonderful, everything just wonderful. I guess by winter electricity + heating will be well above average household income in less wealthy regions of Latvia. And I feel real bad for pensioners, especially lonely ones as their pension is about EUR 370 in average and much less for unlucky ones.
This sucks.

As a comparison, house of a colleague of my childhood friend was shelled in March. She was lucky, only suffered concussion and minor injuries, and was able to flee from Mariupol to western  Ukraine before Russian forces rolled into the city.
 
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Online vad

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My view on the “Gas Armageddon” in Europe. Europeans made this Armageddon possible.

For decades Europe’s leaders put blind eye on Putin’s regime. Many got bribed by Russia (Chancellor Schröder, for example).

They supplied military technology and equipment to Russia: thermal vision cameras (Thales, France), advanced microelectronics and gyros found in Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. They almost sold two helicopter carriers to Russia (France).

They let their countries get addicted to cheap gas and oil imports from unreliable supplier, sending trillion Euros to Putin war chest and destroying own coal and nuclear energy industry, sending many thousands own citizens to unemployment benefits.

They did not change their behavioral pattern and diversify energy supplier even when Russia started threatening cutting off gas supplies as early as 2005.

They did not change this pattern, when Russia started war in Europe in 2008, invading Georgia and annexing its territories.

They did not change it in 2014, when Russia started another war in Europe, invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea.

They did not change pattern when a passenger plane carrying 298 souls, mostly Dutch, Australians and Malaysians, was shot down by Russian air defenses over Ukraine.

They did not change their pattern when Russian special forces committed assassinations and attempted assassinations with the use of WMD (banned chemical weapons) on European soil (UK, Bulgaria).

They did not change the pattern when Russia started 2nd phase of Russian-Ukrainian war on 24 February 2022.

Today, they still have not changed their patter. In September 2022 Europe continues to buy Russian oil in ever growing volumes, and is desperate to import Russian gas. On average, Europeans sent 800 million Euros a day, every day since February 2022, to Putin’s war chest.

At the same time Western European countries, except UK, refuse to send heavy weapons to Ukraine.

Germany that was architect of the ”Armageddon” is the pinnacle of the hypocrisy. They promised, but never sent Marauder APCs and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Germany prefers to have these obsolete heavy armor equipment to rust in their storage, than give it to Ukraine.

Get yourself together, Europe. Diversify your energy imports, restore your energy sector. Maybe buy warm socks and pullover sweater for the coming winter. My coldest winter ever was in Melbourne, judging by indoor temperatures, and from my personal experience I can also recommend electric blankets.

Ukraine and its supporters can also help with electric and gas bills. They are willing to pay cash for your rusting outdated tanks and armored personnel carriers. Seriously.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2022, 10:41:57 pm by vad »
 
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Offline Nusa

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From the rules:
Quote
5) This is an electronics forum, so try to stay on-topic. We understand that threads drift off-topic, but try not to start deliberately and grossly off-topic stuff.
There are a couple of pet topics that always get out of control on forums, namely, religion, politics, guns, war, conspiracy theories, and the latest Current Thing that's happening or being championed by the public. They are not welcome here. This includes inside signatures and profile bios. This isn't Twitter where you virtue signal to everyone with your flags, emoticons, and hashtags.

The mods here are lenient, but I suspect this is headed for out of control if it isn't already.
 
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Offline Faringdon

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Ukraine was around  long before Russia  began.
In 1991, Uraine voted 93%/7% to go independent of Russia (82% attendence)
In the Holodomor, Russia's action made millions of Ukrainians starve to death.

Putin  has enough nukes to destroy the world 5x over....but pretends  it feels threatened by Ukraine, or even NATO....the small countries join NATO simply because they fear Russia under the likes of Putin.
Russia is under threat from no country. If it gets threatened...then it has nukes.
This offensive must simply be a "look see", to see what weapons the west has, prior to further Russian operations elsewhere, and to give information for the  "other invasion" , related to this one, that is imminently coming.
The Russians are great people...but they are unfortunately under the claw of Putin and are trapped. I am so sorry for the superb Russian people, who have to cow tow to Putin.

If Putin thinks its so tough in Russia that he has to invade ukraine....then swap countries with us here in UK......we'll all come to Russia and live,  and Russians can have UK....we will swap gladly...and we will live peacefully with the nice Ukrainians. There is not threat to Russia...and the nukes can be let to fly if need ever came....but i doubt anyone will  ever invade Russia.
Russia even has the windfall of the Arctic territory to enhance its already huge wealth even more...so what they are doing with utter  barbarism in Ukraine is anyone's guess.

So ungrateful of Putin to do this....and against UK too effectively....who helped Russia out of the mire in WW2 with great intelligence...even my own Grandfather winding armatures for Russian subs in ww2.

I suspect Putin wants all out nuke war as he cant retire, as he has bumped so many fellow Russians off that someone will come get him.....if he wants full nuclear, we will gladly  get  right into that with him....absolute full nuclear......and i suspect Putin actually wants it anyway.
Just a shame for the majority of the great , wonderful Russian People, and of course, us.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2022, 04:54:18 pm by Faringdon »
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Offline TimFox

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Do you have access to a public library?  There are many serious history books about Russia, Ukraine, and the Soviet Union.
Examples:
A Bevoir:  "Russia, Revolution and Civil War 1917-1921", Weidenfel & Nicolson 2022   About the revolution and the civil war that followed, where Ukraine was a center for the "Whites", vs. the "Reds".
D Lieven:  "Towards the Flame.  Empire, War, and the End of Tsarist Russia", Allen Lane 2015.
My favorite:  "The Russian Primary Chronicle, Laurentian Text", translated S H Cross and O P Sherbowitz-Wetzor, The Medieval Academy of America 1953 (reprinted 1973).  It is an old chronicle, covering approximately AD 852 to 1120, where the manuscript translated here dates to AD 1377.  I like it because it includes the tradition that in approximately AD 860 the locals appealed to the Varangian Russes (Scandinavians) saying "Our land is great and rich, but there is no order in it.  Come to rule and reign over us."  This led to the reign of Rurik in Novgorod, the founder of the dynasty in "Kievan Rus" that included Ivan the Terrible and lasted through Feodor I (died 1598).  After a 15-year "Time of Troubles", the Romanov dynasty took over the Tsardom, and ruled until the Bolsheviks.  Russian and Ukrainian historians differ on a lot of details of this ancient history, which included both geographical regions.
 

Online tautech

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My view on the “Gas Armageddon” in Europe. Europeans made this Armageddon possible.

For decades Europe’s leaders put blind eye on Putin’s regime. Many got bribed by Russia (Chancellor Schröder, for example).

They supplied military technology and equipment to Russia: thermal vision cameras (Thales, France), advanced microelectronics and gyros found in Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. They almost sold two helicopter carriers to Russia (France).

They let their countries get addicted to cheap gas and oil imports from unreliable supplier, sending trillion Euros to Putin war chest and destroying own coal and nuclear energy industry, sending many thousands own citizens to unemployment benefits.

They did not change their behavioral pattern and diversify energy supplier even when Russia started threatening cutting off gas supplies as early as 2005.

They did not change this pattern, when Russia started war in Europe in 2008, invading Georgia and annexing its territories.

They did not change it in 2014, when Russia started another war in Europe, invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea.

They did not change pattern when a passenger plane carrying 298 souls, mostly Dutch, Australians and Malaysians, was shot down by Russian air defenses over Ukraine.

They did not change their pattern when Russian special forces committed assassinations and attempted assassinations with the use of WMD (banned chemical weapons) on European soil (UK, Bulgaria).

They did not change the pattern when Russia started 2nd phase of Russian-Ukrainian war on 24 February 2022.

Today, they still have not changed their patter. In September 2022 Europe continues to buy Russian oil in ever growing volumes, and is desperate to import Russian gas. On average, Europeans sent 800 million Euros a day, every day since February 2022, to Putin’s war chest.

At the same time Western European countries, except UK, refuse to send heavy weapons to Ukraine.

Germany that was architect of the ”Armageddon” is the pinnacle of the hypocrisy. They promised, but never sent Marauder APCs and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Germany prefers to have these obsolete heavy armor equipment to rust in their storage, than give it to Ukraine.

Get yourself together, Europe. Diversify your energy imports, restore your energy sector. Maybe buy warm socks and pullover sweater for the coming winter. My coldest winter ever was in Melbourne, judging by indoor temperatures, and from my personal experience I can also recommend electric blankets.

Ukraine and its supporters can also help with electric and gas bills. They are willing to pay cash for your rusting outdated tanks and armored personnel carriers. Seriously.
Yes when all listed out like that it's very difficult to feel sympathy for anyone in Europe but the Ukrainians.

I do wonder whom has been screaming warnings for the last decade of 2 just to be ignored by the children running that part of the world now.
However long overdue is the value of wool to lift and substantially it might this winter too !
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Offline magic

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There exists a certain 800lb gorilla country in the EU which hasn't really been independent since 1945.

So the whole disruption of Europe's energy and heavy industry sectors while positioning themselves as sole authorized distributors of foreign fossil fuels, it may not entirely have been their own idea ;)

Other things may not have been their own idea too, but you won't get me to rant about it on this forum :-DD
 

Online tom66Topic starter

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Despite Putin's hope that blackmailing Europe would work, the gas price continues to fall:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

A great deal of this is due to market intervention in the EU.

It is of course still well above the pre 2020 norm.
 

Online wraper

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Despite Putin's hope that blackmailing Europe would work, the gas price continues to fall:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

A great deal of this is due to market intervention in the EU.

It is of course still well above the pre 2020 norm.
like 10 to 30 times above. I wouldn't count on price drop either. Even with completely full reservoirs, with no supply EU would not last even half of the winter. Not to say price dropped to a level of what was a month ago. Which was already totally insane and highest ever except a short few day peak in March.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2022, 08:13:25 am by wraper »
 

Online tom66Topic starter

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It's about 8-10x above the 2020 norm.  I think around 4x is a manageable level (for consumers there will have to be a subsidy, for business they will just have to adapt).  Anything above that is going to require further economic support.
 

Online wraper

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Just so you understand what this price means. Last year it was about 7MWh of natural gas a month to heat my home in winter. At 190 EUR/MWh it's effing EUR 1330, and it's a wholesale price with no VAT, not what I get delivered. And in Latvia the vast majority of people earn below EUR 1000 after taxes. Median being about EUR 770 after taxes.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2022, 08:43:12 am by wraper »
 


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