Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79108 times)

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Offline Marco

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EU is failing, they should have a rationing plan in place for the EU as a whole. Maybe an EU wide subsidy for residential users for the first X m3 of gas or kwh of electricity during winter, since non industrial users are hard to ration.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2022, 08:36:48 am by Marco »
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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The UK approach is stupid - all bills will be capped at an annual average of £2500 per year (okay, fair enough) for the 'average household' (12MWh/year gas, 2.9MWh/year electricity) which is "fine" in principle but that subsidy could apply all the way up to 100's MWh/year consumption, there is no cap on how much the government will pay per user.

It seems absolute insanity that we're essentially paying to heat people's swimming pools.  It should be something like a total of 16MWh electricity and gas is subsidised (just slightly over the average) and then you pay market rates for the fuels.  It should be the sum of the two, because some places only have electric resistive heating, so they will have nearly no gas usage (maybe hot water/cooking but <1MWh/year) and assessing per user will be difficult.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2022, 08:56:06 am by tom66 »
 

Offline BravoV

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EU is failing, they should have a rationing plan in place for the EU as a whole. Maybe an EU wide subsidy for residential users for the first X m3 of gas or kwh of electricity during winter, since non industrial users are hard to ration.

The only way to save & keep the current regime from falling in short term is to keep printing more money in already very weakened Euro, and keeps throwing/spreading subsidies like crazy, to keep people out from the street from protesting the leaders, hopefully.  :scared:

Offline Forester

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@Vovk_Z are you on a mission here?
I just can't stand to hear russian propaganda speeches spreading.
So you started your propaganda (part of your messages is direct propaganda, with which you mislead people who are far from the history of relations between Russia and Ukraine), taking advantage of the fact that there are no opponents here? I will say right away that I don’t give a damn about Russia and Ukraine.
As for the question of the topic, if you want to save money, then refer to the experience of the Russian north. It is cold there, but the houses are warm, despite the lack of advanced European technologies.
 

Offline Marco

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The only way to save & keep the current regime from falling in short term

Other than becoming vassals to Russia and just handing them the Baltics to annex outright, regime change has very little point. The situation sucks and we just have to make the best of it.

The way to make the best of it would be to support vulnerable ordinary citizens EU wide, with EU funds.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2022, 03:57:27 pm by Marco »
 

Offline jonpaul

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Bonjour

As always, the root issue is beurocrats and governments attempting to predict and control everything.

The control of electric power generation and distribution has been designed and legislated by laymen  and Socialist politicians in Washington DC, London, Brussels, Strasbourg.

These Mandarins with Sinécures have

1. Shut nuclear power plants
2. stopped oil exploration, coal mining
3. made a deal with Putin's fascist Russian gas
4. refused to build infrastructure ( LNG terminals, pipeline, refineries)
5. Decided to destroy then Wests energy system
6. Huge taxpayers subsidy for wind, solar, and other unreliable and costly schemes

Even if we in the West stop all economy and energy use now, the Enormous Chinese and Indian pollution will still continue.

Just the ramblings of an old retired Electrical Engineer.

Jon
An Internet Dinosaur...
 

Offline BravoV

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Even if we in the West stop all economy and energy use now, the Enormous Chinese and Indian pollution will still continue.

Agree Jon, the West never ever polluted the world, even the West started industrialization centuries ago.

Those low life China and Indian are the pest of the world, if the West suffered because of energy crisis and affecting their economy, those damn Chinese and Indians must suffer too, and stop their economy, and in the name of solidarity and follow the "Western greatness" to stop buying the super evil Russia's energy, reduce polluting the world, and at the same time punish Russia and bring them to kneel to the great Western civilization.

Happy ending.  :-DD

Online wraper

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Even if we in the West stop all economy and energy use now, the Enormous Chinese and Indian pollution will still continue.

Agree Jon, the West never ever polluted the world, even the West started industrialization centuries ago.

Those low life China and Indian are the pest of the world, if the West suffered because of energy crisis and affecting their economy, those damn Chinese and Indians must suffer too, and stop their economy, and in the name of solidarity and follow the "Western greatness" to stop buying the super evil Russia's energy, reduce polluting the world, and at the same time punish Russia and bring them to kneel to the great Western civilization.

Happy ending.  :-DD
I would say it differently. If one part of the world ceases production of something to reduce pollution, production and pollution will simply move to another place.
 

Offline BravoV

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Even if we in the West stop all economy and energy use now, the Enormous Chinese and Indian pollution will still continue.

Agree Jon, the West never ever polluted the world, even the West started industrialization centuries ago.

Those low life China and Indian are the pest of the world, if the West suffered because of energy crisis and affecting their economy, those damn Chinese and Indians must suffer too, and stop their economy, and in the name of solidarity and follow the "Western greatness" to stop buying the super evil Russia's energy, reduce polluting the world, and at the same time punish Russia and bring them to kneel to the great Western civilization.

Happy ending.  :-DD
I would say it differently. If one part of the world ceases production of something to reduce pollution, production and pollution will simply move to another place.

Some may say that you've been brainwashed and consuming too much bad propaganda by the evil Russia, or even worst the super uber evil China CCP narratives.

Offline jonpaul

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Every government intervention has been a catastrophe...

Wars,  recession, depression, currencies, energy, education....

One sees the Enormous hypocrisy of the elites in the Capitols, jetting about to conferences, vacations, political junkets, while admonishing we poor peons to use less energy and buy expensive and defective electric cars.....

"Let em eat cake" ( supposedly said by Marie Antoinette,  in response to the famines and bread shortages in 1790, just before the French revolution)

From an optimist in the nuclear age

Jon
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Online iMo

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It is a good move, imho, the EU decided to eliminate the dependency on Russian energy (gas, oil, nuclear), which dependency, btw. has been criticized for at least 2 decades by many politicians, but EU was lazy and childish naive in that regard. Also it is clear that the free market with energies in EU must be regulated during this transition period, so hopefully EU does the necessary steps now. Also Germany and other big players should resume all their nuclear power-plants during that transition period (let say for next 10y), also the coal should come again into the game during that period. The naive green EU should wait for a while.. That transition costs us and it will cost us even more in EU, but at least the next generation will be happy that we finally undertook this painful step..
« Last Edit: September 13, 2022, 09:37:15 am by imo »
Readers discretion is advised..
 
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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The gas price has now fallen below the post-war spike, after Germany announced NS2 would not be activated:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
 

Offline tszaboo

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EU is failing, they should have a rationing plan in place for the EU as a whole. Maybe an EU wide subsidy for residential users for the first X m3 of gas or kwh of electricity during winter, since non industrial users are hard to ration.
Yes, there is literally chaos on the streets, and people are eating each other, because they have to spend an extra 100 EUR a month or so. Better stock up on canned beans, because it's all crashing down and then maybe I get to live 2 extra weeks. Really terrible, I don't know how  we will survive. Maybe people can give up the third cars in their family, and set the thermostat 1 degree lower, and put on a jumper during the winter. And buy every other new iphone, not every single one. I hope they will make support groups for us. Meanwhile everyone with the roof is talking about solar panels. What has the world come to, we have to pollute our pristine roofs with this pest.
Better move to the east. I hear they don't have an issue with gas, but that the local council is not keeping the river clean enough to wash clothes in. And I'm not making this up.
 
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Online iMo

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..
Better move to the east. I hear they don't have an issue with gas, but that the local council is not keeping the river clean enough to wash clothes in. And I'm not making this up.
Do you mean rivers in Siberia? Those are generally pretty clean.. :D
Readers discretion is advised..
 

Online wraper

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EU is failing, they should have a rationing plan in place for the EU as a whole. Maybe an EU wide subsidy for residential users for the first X m3 of gas or kwh of electricity during winter, since non industrial users are hard to ration.
Yes, there is literally chaos on the streets, and people are eating each other, because they have to spend an extra 100 EUR a month or so. Better stock up on canned beans, because it's all crashing down and then maybe I get to live 2 extra weeks. Really terrible, I don't know how  we will survive. Maybe people can give up the third cars in their family, and set the thermostat 1 degree lower, and put on a jumper during the winter. And buy every other new iphone, not every single one. I hope they will make support groups for us. Meanwhile everyone with the roof is talking about solar panels. What has the world come to, we have to pollute our pristine roofs with this pest.
Better move to the east. I hear they don't have an issue with gas, but that the local council is not keeping the river clean enough to wash clothes in. And I'm not making this up.
I would not call it extra EUR 100. Just food price increase per average person is more than that. Not considering energy, fuel and everything else.
 

Offline jonovid

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IMO We have had 70 years of prosperity, now it seems the tide is going out.
does anyone remember what happened in 1915 and then again in 1939, well its that time again.
when young people volunteer to die for something they know nothing about.
when someone will say IT will be over by Christmas. But most of us know its not true.
the good news is Japan is still here.  and so is Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
this is survivable but maybe not our electronics.  Lest we forget!
Hobbyist with a basic knowledge of electronics
 

Online langwadt

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IMO We have had 70 years of prosperity, now it seems the tide is going out.
does anyone remember what happened in 1915 and then again in 1939, well its that time again.
when young people volunteer to die for something they know nothing about.
when someone will say IT will be over by Christmas. But most of us know its not true.
the good news is Japan is still here.  and so is Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
this is survivable but maybe not our electronics.  Lest we forget!

is the current situation really much worse than the oil crisis and recession of the early 70's and 80's ?
 
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Offline SilverSolder

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IMO We have had 70 years of prosperity, now it seems the tide is going out.
does anyone remember what happened in 1915 and then again in 1939, well its that time again.
when young people volunteer to die for something they know nothing about.
when someone will say IT will be over by Christmas. But most of us know its not true.
the good news is Japan is still here.  and so is Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
this is survivable but maybe not our electronics.  Lest we forget!

Yeah, I kind of worry about this too sometimes...   is history repeating itself, are we being spurred into a world cataclysm by millions of armchair generals that have never been more than 25 miles away from where they were born, but are nevertheless all 100% certain their opinion is the right one and are more than willing to sacrifice your sons and daughters to prove the point?

Cooler heads need to prevail, and it's worth thinking about as you go about your daily business...
 
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Offline tom66Topic starter

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When 'cooler heads must prevail', what outcome is there for Ukraine?

Given Ukraine's recent tactical success in taking back Kharkiv and Kherson, I wonder if the Russians will be willing to return to the table.

But will Ukraine concede anything?  Previously they have said no territory is negotiable, but it is hard to see how the Russians will accept anything less than a legally-sanctioned annex of Crimea and probably part if not all of the contested Donbas region - which I am sure is a red like for the Ukranians.

Like all good negotiations, the best result is one where either side is a bit disappointed by the outcome.
 

Offline Marco

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Quote from: tszaboo
Maybe people can give up the third cars in their family, and set the thermostat 1 degree lower, and put on a jumper during the winter. And buy every other new iphone, not every single one. I hope they will make support groups for us. Meanwhile everyone with the roof is talking about solar panels. What has the world come to, we have to pollute our pristine roofs with this pest.
The problem isn't people like us, the problem is for people with minimal income in the low income EU countries.

People on welfare here have more income than average workers in Latvia, normally cost of living compensates but energy is dominating and equalizing between richer and poorer countries. They have more wood, but that doesn't help a pensioner without a fireplace.
 
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Online wraper

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The problem isn't people like us, the problem is for people with minimal income in the low income EU countries.

People on welfare here have more income than average workers in Latvia, normally cost of living compensates but energy is dominating and equalizing between richer and poorer countries. They have more wood, but that doesn't help a pensioner without a fireplace.
Not to say our winter is much colder than in Netherlands or UK and heating season is longer too.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2022, 01:47:38 pm by wraper »
 

Offline Marco

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Cooler heads need to prevail, and it's worth thinking about as you go about your daily business...

Cool heads will be judged by history, appeasement has its own risk. Donbass could be the Sudetenland of WW3.
 

Offline BravoV

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is the current situation really much worse than the oil crisis and recession of the early 70's and 80's ?

Don't think you can compare that, this time is different animal.

According to Financial Times (an UK based news outlet that anti Russia btw) ...

-> https://www.ft.com/content/6e86c7ff-4a01-433b-84d9-a6115adca0c1

In this news shows this picture below of each EU countries gas consumption, while the mission is cutting Russia dependency (pink colored), say down to zero, the problem is for how long EU countries are "willingly" to endure the pain and damages during that transition period ? The bigger and richer the country, like German, the bigger the damages.

According to Brussels, this may take 5 to 10 years.  :o

Click image to enlarge


Offline Siwastaja

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I would not call it extra EUR 100.

Yet, it might end up being not much more than that. We are getting scaremongered and seeing scaring signs, yet:

* If food price increase is really just about inflation, as it is called by media, and not stagflation, wages will follow. Even though it is more expensive in EUR, it's not more expensive in real price. Of course, there is a delay, which is also why hyperinflation is an actual problem, but no one knows if we are gonna see that.

* Huge energy price peak will likely remain a short peak, a panic reaction of the market, plus then the "new normal" where the era of ridiculously under priced fossil energy is over, good riddance. For example, electric energy price to the consumers went here from 0.05EUR/kWh to 0.40EUR/kWh or so, but the companies secured futures for ~0.30EUR/kWh for the winter, and get this: back to ~0.15EUR/kWh for the spring. So consumer prices will more or less follow.

And now that we have more motivation than ever to solve the energy problem, solutions will be seen. There are so many obvious low-hanging fruits to pick, just limited by the fact no one wanted to invest even 1000EUR to any energy upgrade because of ridiculously cheap gas.

I kinda like role playing this survivalist game, but to be frank: I believe tszaboo will be much closer to what will actually happen, than the... collapsists. Boring, I know.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2022, 02:59:41 pm by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline SilverSolder

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Cooler heads need to prevail, and it's worth thinking about as you go about your daily business...

Cool heads will be judged by history, appeasement has its own risk. Donbass could be the Sudetenland of WW3.

Appeasement is wrong, and resorting to violence as the first response is also wrong.  Life (and relations) isn't black and white...  which is what cool heads know, and the extremes never get, being so excitable.
 
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