General > General Technical Chat
"Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)
Marco:
--- Quote from: dietert1 on September 14, 2022, 05:39:02 am ---The whole western is printing money like mad, with the US no exception. This seems to be a problem of western style democracy
--- End quote ---
It's not a problem, it's a feature.
--- Quote ---Economical failure of the state
--- End quote ---
The frequency of depressions has been massively reduced for the cost of a little inflation with an unprecedented era of sustained increases in standards of living. The current problems in real estate have got little to do with money printing and all to do with money distribution, wealth distribution can grow lopsided in any environment.
In general, economies can fail just fine without money printing too ... in fact they do so more frequently.
tom66:
Economists are really good at predicting recessions - they've successfully predicted nine of the last five. ~Paul Samuelson
Siwastaja:
--- Quote from: tom66 on September 13, 2022, 09:06:29 pm ---So realistically if those are implemented you are looking at a 10-15% reduction in gas usage in industry. I think that's manageable, obviously the heaviest industries (glass making is a good example) will struggle more. But a great deal of industrial gas is just spent on heating factories, offices and so on, so that will just mean they are a bit colder.
--- End quote ---
Exactly this, some of the gas is required for chemical processes, which is hardest to replace, but this part is tiny. Some is required for special furnaces etc. which are hard to quickly convert to other energy sources, this is somewhat easier but still difficult to replace.
But, the vast majority of the gas goes to heating, and it makes very little sense to classify the use cases "domestic" vs. "commercial" vs. "industrial", it all boils down to people enjoying being at +20degC but managing at, say +15degC because you can put more clothes on. Yeah, it sucks, I know, but it does not force any office or any factory to go down.
The problem is overreacting to bad news, similarly how COVID was supposed to kill 1% of population, including large numbers of young and heatlhy individuals, yet it didn't.
So again what we will actually see is slight reduction in indoor temperatures (including industrial estates) but not enough to really cause serious health problems. It is way easier to personally protect oneself against cold, than excessive heat.
The lack of components (and everything else!) for the past 2 years has been a much bigger problem for industry in EU, including car industry. It doesn't matter if the factory where you can't build a car due to component shortage has indoor temperature of 20 or 15 degC.
tonyget:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Europe-Wont-Exploit-Its-Huge-Gas-Reserves.html
Didn't know Europe has this much gas reserves
tom66:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/13/gas-prices-eu-fall-sharply-goldman-sachs-eu-russia
"European gas prices likely to fall sharply this winter, says Goldman Sachs"
Good news if it pans out as predicted.
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