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"Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)

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tom66:
Putin isn't going to go nuclear, because his advisors would not let him.
More than the President is needed to launch a missile.  The whole chain of command is needed.
And that would almost certainly result in immediate retaliation from NATO.  So it is just not an option that will be considered unless Russia is invaded itself.

james_s:

--- Quote from: tom66 on September 16, 2022, 04:57:33 pm ---Putin isn't going to go nuclear, because his advisors would not let him.
More than the President is needed to launch a missile.  The whole chain of command is needed.
And that would almost certainly result in immediate retaliation from NATO.  So it is just not an option that will be considered unless Russia is invaded itself.

--- End quote ---

One can hope this, but I don't know that I'd count on it. Does anyone really know how things work deep within the Russian government? Are we really that confident on the checks & balances that exist to keep Putin from having too much power?

wraper:
There is no reason for Putin to use nuclear, certainly not even close at this point. Russia is not even all in into a full-fledged war with Ukraine at this moment. Only a relatively small part of total army is deployed there. No conscript soldiers (Russia has a large reserve of that if needed), only professional military who work on contract. The only conscript soldiers are from DPR/LPR (separatist regions of Ukraine). Several orders of escalation are needed before nuclear would be even considered. This is some really weird war FWIW. Ukraine says Europe should stop buying Russian gas while continuing pumping it through their own territory, but Russia supplying gas to an enemy country it is at war. Do not recall something like that in history.

Siwastaja:

--- Quote from: wraper on September 16, 2022, 06:21:00 pm ---Ukraine says Europe should stop buying Russian gas while continuing pumping it through their own territory.

--- End quote ---

Oh, this one's simple: Europe (esp. Germany) wants to buy Russian gas, but Europe supports Ukraine, so Ukraine's interest is to let the gas flow to their supporter. Basically Europe supports both Ukraine and Russia (through the gas payments, especially artificially inflated gas price).

Getting the gas through is everybody's shared interest so it's no surprise it happens. Even though everyone feels bad doing that.

But it now seems this might be slowly changing with the "we don't want to sell after all, no wait we want, no wait..." & "we don't want to buy, no wait, we want to buy, no wait we don't" game. Let's see what happens.

Nusa:

--- Quote from: tom66 on September 16, 2022, 04:57:33 pm ---Putin isn't going to go nuclear, because his advisors would not let him.
More than the President is needed to launch a missile.  The whole chain of command is needed.
And that would almost certainly result in immediate retaliation from NATO.  So it is just not an option that will be considered unless Russia is invaded itself.

--- End quote ---

The US President is literally all that's required to authorize nuclear launches on a moments notice, so long as he's picking a pre-planned option. (It was a real worry during the Trump administration, given his rhetoric and crazy act.) Sure there are people in the physical chain of command, but they're trained, vetted, and blind tested (they think it's real, even when it's a test) to follow orders -- or they're removed from the chain. All the codes and interlocks are only to verify the order is coming from the President and to prevent any other individual from launching without authority.

I imagine the Russian setup is comparable, with Putin having uncontested launch authority. Talking to advisors before acting would be an unacceptable delay in process. That would come after, when it comes to what happens next.

Sure, there would be consequences, both internally and externally. Retaliation would happen, but unless NATO countries were DIRECTLY targeted it may not be immediate or even nuclear, since the results of escalation to mutually assured destruction levels with a country with sub-based nukes are very high indeed.

So your entire argument really comes down to: I think Putin is too sane to use nukes. If he's got something terminal, maybe not. If he's about to be overthrown, maybe not. If he's a poor loser, maybe not. Are you willing to bet your only world on that logic?

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