Author Topic: "Gas Armageddon": Energy/electricity prices in EU/UK (and how to deal with them)  (Read 79322 times)

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Offline JohanH

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The problem is that gas is still significantly cheaper and a lot of electricity is generated from gas. And electricity will become even more expensive if demand increases. Not to say investment you need to make to make the heating system replacement.

Still makes sense to create that electricity centrally with efficient gas turbines and use waste heat for e.g. central heating. To have everyone burn gas in their own small boiler is more wasteful. Heck, even burning gasoline in big power plants would be more efficient and have everyone drive electric cars.
 

Offline madires

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A modern air-source heat pump can keep COP above 3 down to -10°C ranges when need just low-temperature output for room heating and not deal with too much evaporator frosting

A recent study (monitoring modern heat pumps across the country) shows an average COP of 2.6 for Germany.
 

Offline tautech

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The other option is to tear up the Paris accord and get back to exploring for fossil fuels and reopen coal mines and the like.
No. Not because of CO2 but because burning coal causes massive amounts of SO2 and NOx pollution which in turn makes people sick. Unless ofcourse you want to make sure your population doesn't get too old (like they seem to want in China).

Nuclear is the best option for now.
Sure but being retired faster than being constructed.
Trump love or hate him warned the UK about their exposure to Russian energy supplies and they did nought to protect themselves and a year or 2 later the invasion came along and one didn’t need to be a rocket scientist to envisage how it would all play out.
Now look at all the suffering that may have been prevented if Europe had honoured their neighbour !
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Offline Miyuki

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The other option is to tear up the Paris accord and get back to exploring for fossil fuels and reopen coal mines and the like.
No. Not because of CO2 but because burning coal causes massive amounts of SO2 and NOx pollution which in turn makes people sick. Unless ofcourse you want to make sure your population doesn't get too old (like they seem to want in China).

Nuclear is the best option for now.
The problem is nuclear power plants take 10 to 15 years to build
You need to cover this time with something
 

Offline JohanH

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In many cases yes, but not in all. If your central heating needs a high flow temperature simply replacing the gas/oil furnace with a heat pump doesn't work (you have to invest much more to 'upgrade' your house). Doesn't work for historic buildings (over here) and large buildings are a challenge also. And with heat pumps and EVs we nead to generate at least two times more electric power than we currently do.

All this talk is stalling the inevitable. It works. 2/3 of my house is built in 1927. When switching to ground source heat pump, I installed larger radiators and some insulation in parts of the house and now get a total SCOP of 3.7 (in 2021). With even better insulation that would be around 4-5. My total electrical consumption has basically not changed due to this (don't have EVs yet, so that would add).
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Not only do they take over a decade to build we have a strong culture in this country of building absolutely nothing because there's some rare bird nest in a tree somewhere, or because Ms Jones at 123 Street Road can see it just over the horizon if she uses binoculars and that's just not okay.

I kind of wish we just had the guts to actually build infrastructure that would collectively benefit all of society but we seem to pay the most attention to landowners and their concerns instead.
 
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Offline tautech

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Not only do they take over a decade to build we have a strong culture in this country of building absolutely nothing because there's some rare bird nest in a tree somewhere, or because Ms Jones at 123 Street Road can see it just over the horizon if she uses binoculars and that's just not okay.

I kind of wish we just had the guts to actually build infrastructure that would collectively benefit all of society but we seem to pay the most attention to landowners and their concerns instead.
Have enough industry close and elderly freeze in a severe winter like that in WWII and everyone would change their tune.
Pain has a tendency to focus the mind.
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Offline nfmax

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What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.

There is a big point. If gas and electricity cost the same, with a heat pump you create 3-5 times more energy than with gas (or direct resistive electrical heating). Even my old mother in law, now living in an empty house of her own, is now installing a ground source heat pump and ditching the oil boiler. And she isn't rich, living on low pension. Here, holes are usually drilled into the bedrock (our house has a 170 m hole) and it is done in one day. Drilling cost about 5000 €. The state gives some funding when switching from fossil to heat pumps.

I just bought 600 litres of oil (Kerosine) which will see me out the winter - I use a lot of firewood. I paid 0.88 GBP/litre after tax & delivery charge, which is less than half the quoted rate just after the war started. But the price is going back up now already. At 10.35 kWh/litre that is 8.5 p/kWh. Today, electricity costs me about 29 p/kWh giving a breakeven COP for a heat pump of 3.4 (including hot water supply) which is just about realistic. But we will find out tomorrow what the electricity price will be from October to January: predictions are around 52 - 55 p/kWh, which makes oil cheaper than any feasible heat pump. And the price is expected to go up again in January.

No gas supply here, so I don't know what the current price is.
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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I wonder how practical self-arbitrage is.  Buy energy when it is cheap, store in large LiFePO4 or Li-Ion battery, and use it for the day. 
 

Offline nfmax

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I wonder how practical self-arbitrage is.  Buy energy when it is cheap, store in large LiFePO4 or Li-Ion battery, and use it for the day.
Basically what I do with oil!
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Last I looked I could build a 15kWh battery - which when combined with solar - for about £7,000.  Or 10kWh if I buy a pre made kit.

I've seen Economy7 tariffs at 20p/kWh in the off peak and say 60p/kWh in on peak.  Compared to e.g. 52p/kWh in normal peak usage.  If the usage can be all put into the off peak then there is a saving of 32p/kWh per unit (assuming 100% efficiency, blah blah).  Excluding PHEV (that can charge in the off peak too), I use about 4000kWh per year electricity.   I may be able to shift even more into the off peak but this is a base assumption.   So that is saving ~£1,300 year, or payback time of about 5-6 years.

That almost seems reasonable.  The batteries are warrantied for between 9-12 years, and if even a small amount of solar is added into the equation, it could make it a no brainer.

The question really is... will high energy prices remain here for 5 years or more?  Or will it be a short blip and then a return to normal?
 

Offline tautech

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Not only do they take over a decade to build we have a strong culture in this country of building absolutely nothing because there's some rare bird nest in a tree somewhere, or because Ms Jones at 123 Street Road can see it just over the horizon if she uses binoculars and that's just not okay.

I kind of wish we just had the guts to actually build infrastructure that would collectively benefit all of society but we seem to pay the most attention to landowners and their concerns instead.
Problem is unless you’re near a plate boundary or volcano land isn’t growing on trees so rightfully what we have need be used wisely. From what we see the UK has mainly hamlets throughout the countryside in the effort to protect the productive farmland from senseless subdivision whereas here close to cities housing is expanding horizontally instead of vertically in some effort to protect the productive countryside.

Trouble is, someone has to grow balls and make decisions for the future rather than we all get backed harder against the wall before something is done. Europes current predicament only lays out the future for everywhere and we can all learn from it however the unpreparedness is a shock to its citizens but serves as a good warning to the rest of us to get our shit together by hammering bureaucrats for decent solutions or say stuff them all and go it alone ! 
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Offline Stray Electron

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Announcement on the radio today said that the UK has just done a month with no Russian energy,

   I suspect that what they didn't tell you is that they were still running off of stored reserves.  If they can run for a month with no imported fuel and without drawing down any of their reserves, then great.  But I don't think that many countries will be able to and particularly over a period of years.

   A lot of the Greens in Germany and elsewhere are exclaiming, "No problem we'll just built more windmills, more hydrogen plants", etc.  The trouble is that it's going to take a lot of additional energy to built those additional windmill and other projects and it will take years to build them. On top of that the entire distribution systems for oil, LNG, electricity will also have to be built or vastly enlarged. So do you use what energy we have to heat our homes, distribute our food and run our industries or do we use it all to produce more gewgaw gadgets that we HOPE will produce some energy in (realistically) 20 to 30 years?

   If you think that I'm not serious, consider the fact that Germany has been widely installing wind turbines since about 1995 but as of 2021 those still only provide 22% of their electrical needs and contributes nothing to their oil and LNG requirements. 

   Importing LNG has the same sorts of problems; there aren't enough ports in Europe to deliver it to, not nearly enough vessels to move the necessary amounts and no distribution system once you get it to a port.  And I don't think that the US, Canada, the middle east or anywhere else has the existing port capacity to ship the needed amounts of LNG.

   What is needed for the US, Canada, England and the EU to THROW their environmental studies and other long slow, drawn out, processes out the window and to engage in a CRASH PROGRAM of ship building, port building, pipeline building, oil and gas well drilling and the other NECESSARY infrastructure as quickly as humanly possible.  Similar to the way that the ALCAN highway, the Ledo road and many ports in the Pacific were built in World War II.  Until that's done, the people in Europe are going to go cold and hungry.

   Many Enviro-nuts are touting Hydrogen but there is NO infrastructure in place for a hydrogen production, distribution or cars or industry to use it.  I hate to use the term "A pipe dream", but that exactly describes the future for hydrogen for at least the next 40 years. And most like MUCH longer given the priorities of the other more realistic energy supply systems.
 
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Offline madires

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All this talk is stalling the inevitable. It works. 2/3 of my house is built in 1927. When switching to ground source heat pump, I installed larger radiators and some insulation in parts of the house and now get a total SCOP of 3.7 (in 2021).

Over here special protection rules apply to historic buildings. You aren't allowed to change the face of such a building in any way. So you can't simply add insulation. And adding insulation at the inside would most likely damage the walls on the long term by shifting the dew point further inside. Heats pumps are great but not a panacea. We have to check the feasibility for each building.
 

Offline nctnico

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   Many Enviro-nuts are touting Hydrogen but there is NO infrastructure in place for a hydrogen production, distribution or cars or industry to use it.
You are 1000% wrong about this. https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2022/shell-to-start-building-europes-largest-renewable-hydrogen-plant.html
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/06/30/netherlands-to-build-10-gw-national-network-for-green-hydrogen/

Hydrogen is going to be the new oil & gas.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2022, 01:16:31 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Offline JohanH

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Over here special protection rules apply to historic buildings. You aren't allowed to change the face of such a building in any way. So you can't simply add insulation. And adding insulation at the inside would most likely damage the walls on the long term by shifting the dew point further inside. Heats pumps are great but not a panacea. We have to check the feasibility for each building.

It's still possible to do something (e.g. insulation in attic). And it is possible to install much larger radiators so that you can run lower heating temp. It won't be as efficient as a modern building, but people have done it. And if it can't be done, then some rules have to be changed or new methods be found. I've mainly insulated inside, but you have to be careful, you can't use as much insulation as in a modern building. Keep in mind, the larger and more radiators you use, the lower the temp can be and the better the efficiency of the heat pump. I don't use thermostats in radiators at all, to not prevent the pump from working optimally. The system is optimized to use the best static curve between outside and inside temp. This of course takes some time and expertise to tune, so I don't expect that everyone will have as good results. Inevitably, there will be a lot of installed heat pumps that works on too high temperature, fighting thermostats and wasting electricity. Depends a lot on the installer, too.

Ultimately, floor heating is best, because you will get largest possible heating area. This could possibly be an option in older houses. I did consider doing this. Now only the 1/3 newly built part of the house has floor heating, but the heat pump doesn't benefit much from it because it has to produce higher temp for the radiators (5-10 °C higher).
« Last Edit: August 25, 2022, 01:52:20 pm by JohanH »
 

Offline tom66Topic starter

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Hydrogen is going to be the new oil & gas.

I do see a strong future for hydrogen (or syngas, but probably both will be used.)

Whilst I'm not convinced it makes sense for vehicles, the use of hydrogen as a storage mechanism for renewable energy is just a no brainer.  There is no other technology that can possibly compete for seasonal energy storage.  Not batteries, not molten salt, not pumped hydro.

It does worry me that the infrastructure is only trickling into place though.  We need gigawatt-scale plants!
 

Offline themadhippy

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UK imports loads but not from Russia
Biggest import from russia was coal , https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9523/   Around 2% of uk electricity is generated  from coal, in summer we use around a third less electricity  than winter  so it seems theirs plenty of capacity in summer not to be burning the stuff.Of  course we could be digging our own home produced coal but someone put a stop to that,funnily enough the same person was also responsible for selling the north sea oil and gas of to their mates  the  highest bidder to make the books look good,instead of following norways example.
 
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Offline richard.cs

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I do see a strong future for hydrogen (or syngas, but probably both will be used.)

Whilst I'm not convinced it makes sense for vehicles, the use of hydrogen as a storage mechanism for renewable energy is just a no brainer.  There is no other technology that can possibly compete for seasonal energy storage.  Not batteries, not molten salt, not pumped hydro.
The low efficiency of creating it by electrolysis is unfortunate, but not necessarily a show stopper depending on the source of the energy input. What I can't see is why we would ever use hydrogen as H2 (an inconvenient gas that's hard to liquify, low energy density, explosive in pretty much all concentrations, leaks through almost everything, embrittles metals, etc.) rather than stick it to some carbon atoms and make synthetic methane or synthetic LPG. This carbon could be from an agricultural source making the output fuel carbon neutral, or it could be petroleum-derived, which would still give a significant reduction in net CO2 by increasing the energy content of the fuel.* About the only time pure hydrogen is useful is for fuel cells which does not seem to be the primary use-case when hydrogen is discussed.

That said, in the UK hydrogen seems to be mainly pushed by organisations that own large amounts of gas distribution infrastructure, and it feels a lot like them desperately trying to stay relevant and keep their network of pipes valuable.

* e.g. convert C35H70, a randomly chosen molecule that roughly equates to heavy fuel oil, to 35x CH4. Calculating crudely about an additional 50% more energy is released on combustion, for the same CO2 emission.
 

Offline tszaboo

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All this talk is stalling the inevitable. It works. 2/3 of my house is built in 1927. When switching to ground source heat pump, I installed larger radiators and some insulation in parts of the house and now get a total SCOP of 3.7 (in 2021).

Over here special protection rules apply to historic buildings. You aren't allowed to change the face of such a building in any way. So you can't simply add insulation. And adding insulation at the inside would most likely damage the walls on the long term by shifting the dew point further inside. Heats pumps are great but not a panacea. We have to check the feasibility for each building.
Yeah, at one point we have to decide what's more important. Keeping old towns the same shape as a century ago, while living in constant acid rain and 40 degrees outside during the winter, or changing it and having a future. This was a hyperbole.
 

Offline Miyuki

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I do see a strong future for hydrogen (or syngas, but probably both will be used.)

Whilst I'm not convinced it makes sense for vehicles, the use of hydrogen as a storage mechanism for renewable energy is just a no brainer.  There is no other technology that can possibly compete for seasonal energy storage.  Not batteries, not molten salt, not pumped hydro.
The low efficiency of creating it by electrolysis is unfortunate, but not necessarily a show stopper depending on the source of the energy input. What I can't see is why we would ever use hydrogen as H2 (an inconvenient gas that's hard to liquify, low energy density, explosive in pretty much all concentrations, leaks through almost everything, embrittles metals, etc.) rather than stick it to some carbon atoms and make synthetic methane or synthetic LPG. This carbon could be from an agricultural source making the output fuel carbon neutral, or it could be petroleum-derived, which would still give a significant reduction in net CO2 by increasing the energy content of the fuel.* About the only time pure hydrogen is useful is for fuel cells which does not seem to be the primary use-case when hydrogen is discussed.

That said, in the UK hydrogen seems to be mainly pushed by organisations that own large amounts of gas distribution infrastructure, and it feels a lot like them desperately trying to stay relevant and keep their network of pipes valuable.

* e.g. convert C35H70, a randomly chosen molecule that roughly equates to heavy fuel oil, to 35x CH4. Calculating crudely about an additional 50% more energy is released on combustion, for the same CO2 emission.
The same pipes that now carry Natural gas around cities used to carry Town/Coal gas in the past and it is about 50% H2 and it worked without any issues.
You can switch to pure H2 distribution without major issues
There is no reason to not do so. It worked fine hundred years back.
It makes sense they want it. With Abundant renewables, there will be windows with electricity at zero or "negative" price. And they can with reasonably big storage make a fortune on using it and storing hydrogen.
It is pretty safe to store it and when it leaks it just safely rises to the sky.
 
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Offline HobGoblyn

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.  However, the energy retailers, the companies who buy energy for their customers on the wholesale market, don't make a huge amount of money in any typical year.  In a good year they'd make £25 per customer for a gas and electric contract, for a whole year.  They're already making a loss at the current SVR tariff because the wholesale price has jumped even further ahead of the capped price, at least for the UK.  The anger is directed at the wrong people and risks further collapse of the energy retail market and higher costs for all.

EDIT, Website I got Centricas profit from, missed out the decimal point, thought 134 billion was a bit high lol, should be 1.34 billion.

Trouble is, a lot of energy providers set themselves up with no real safety net, no real regulations, undercutting others, convincing people to switch to them.

Now, if I’ve read correctly, the reason the daily charge has approx doubled is to claim back the money it cost to take over those failed companies. Many directors etc of those failed companies, happily made hundreds of thousands and we are now paying the cost.

26 companies went bust from Aug 2021 to Dec 2021, compared to 23 companies going bust between Nov 2016 to Jan 2021

According to the FT a few days ago, “The cost to UK households of bailing out nationalised energy retailer Bulb is expected to soar to more than £4bn by the spring unless the government achieves a sale, saddling every home with an additional £150 or more on its bills next year”

From Bloomberg:

“ The owners of some UK energy suppliers that collapsed within the past year are set to walk away with payouts reaching tens of millions of pounds at the same time every household in the country is footing the bill for those failures…….

The People’s Energy Company Ltd. came into being with crowdfunded cash and a pledge to tackle fuel poverty in Britain. Four years later, it failed. Even so, founders David Pike and Karin Sode may receive about £50 million once company creditors are satisfied. In addition, they won’t be on the hook for the £283 million cost of shifting their customers to Centrica Plc’s British Gas.

It’s all legal, and shareholders of other bust utilities may be compensated, as well. Around 30 energy suppliers in the UK have disintegrated since August because they couldn’t afford electricity or natural gas”


Sure some energy suppliers have little to do with energy generation, but then you have the likes of British Gas  etc, sure it could be argued they are different parts of these companies, but when you have say:

British Gas CEO didn’t take his £1.1m bonus THIS year due to soaring household costs (He’ll have to pay his bills from his £750k salary instead),
but Centrica  who owns them,  profits went from £262 million for 6 months of 2021 to £134 billion for the same 6 months of this year

Shell announced last month that it would return billions of dollars to its shareholders as the oil giant continued to profit from massive energy price hikes following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

BP was accused of “unfettered profiteering” after it said on Tuesday underlying profits had tripled to $8.5bn (£6.9bn) between April and June, thanks to high oil prices. It was its biggest quarterly profit in 14 years and BP said it would hand out nearly £4bn to shareholders as a result

Power generation companies:

Eon £3.4 billion profit first half of 2022 (chief executive pay £1 million)

National grid £3.4 billion profit  2021 - 2022  (chief exec pay over same period £6.5 million)

RWE  £2.2 billion profit first half of 2022. (Chief exec pay £3.6 million in 2021)

Scottish Power £925 million first half of 2022 (Chief exec pay £1.35 for 2021

Drax £225 million first half of 2022 (Chief exec pay £2.7 million 2021)

EDF £4.5 billion LOSS first half of 2022 (highest paid director £1 million on 2021)

EDF losses are mainly due to their nuclear power plant problems and other problems in France.


Bearing in mind say Eon, British Gas, Scottish Power etc are household suppliers, when someone on the England (Scotlands the same rate). min wage of  £9.50 per hour, has seen the average annual gas and electricity bill rise from:


1st Oct 2021. £1,277 per year (12% rise on previous year)

1st April 2022 £1,971 per year. ((54% rise)

1st October 2022 (Latest predictions, I believe the announcement is tomorrow) £3,554 per year (80% rise)

1st January 2023 (Latest predictions) £4,650 a year (31% rise)

1st April 2023 currently estimated to rise somewhere between £5,300 and £6,550.


So someone on min wage in 2021 was paying an average of £107 a month for gas and electric

Same person is currently paying £165 a month

From October they will be paying £296 per month

From January they will be paying £387 per month

And if the lowest prediction for April 2023 comes true, they will be paying £442 a month


That’s without the fact that the poorest tend to be on prepayment meters, and are charged an extra 2% for the suppliers to have their money in advance.
And those that don’t pay by direct debit but pay when they receive their bills, have to pay an extra 7%

I’m sorry, but I fully understand why they blame all energy companies whether that company produces power or not.

I’m surprised millions aren’t out on the streets etc.

I can only afford Januarys rise by instead of being able to currently save about £200 - £300, to being able to save nothing and go into my savings (which aren’t a lot, about £3k) and when I’ve used that up, if these prices continue, I’ll have no option other than to take money out of my (not very big) drawdown pension to cover my bills, luckily my mortgage is paid, if it wasn’t, I wouldn’t be able to pay Januarys bills.

And I count myself lucky in that while annoying, while I might end up using my pension (only 58), at least I can pay it, at least I won’t be worrying about how I’m going to pay my bills etc, I don’t know how many will cope.

And of course on top of that, prices of everything else is going through the roof, food especially.





« Last Edit: August 28, 2022, 02:49:03 pm by HobGoblyn »
 

Offline Squarewave

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It won't be long until the "Won't pay movement" just turns into a grim reality with a name change to, can't pay. £6k per year for energy? Nah, not getting that out of me and for many people, they simply do not have it, no matter what savings they make.

This is not a good time and some very serious unsettlement is coming to the streets very soon.
 
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Offline HobGoblyn

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UK imports loads but not from Russia
Biggest import from russia was coal , https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9523/   Around 2% of uk electricity is generated  from coal, in summer we use around a third less electricity  than winter  so it seems theirs plenty of capacity in summer not to be burning the stuff.Of  course we could be digging our own home produced coal but someone put a stop to that,funnily enough the same person was also responsible for selling the north sea oil and gas of to their mates  the  highest bidder to make the books look good,instead of following norways example.

Love him or loath him, every single thing Arthur Scargill  said, was 100% true. I loath the person you don’t mention, but won’t mention her myself to keep this free from being political.
 


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