The army is getting rekt by 16 Himars. The west has 500, and no better targets.
More Javelin has been sent to Ukraine, than the number of tanks russia has, and the system has 93% successful kill ratio.
Meanwhile they are conscripting convicted felons, sending it to the front in 60 year old tanks.
The reality of the situation is that we have a rocket for everything they have, ten times over, at any distance.
Well, that’s excellent analysis of a rational person.
I doubt, however, that when it comes to Putin, we are dealing with rational person who has access to good analysts. If that was true, Putin would not have started this war.
Now Putin’s rationale for going after a NATO state, once he is done with Ukraine, could be as follows:
1) Once Russia occupies Ukraine, a country of 40 million, Putin will get his hands on 10-20 million of potential conscripts, saving him from hiring convicts.
2) If you listen to Russian state media, it is the West, and in particular NATO, who is the Russian’s enemy, not Ukraine. For Putin, giving NATO a blow, would be both a revenge and an opportunity to restore Russia’s dominance in Eastern Europe.
3) Putin does not seem to be suicidal. He will not attack the US, the UK, or any other state with nuclear weapons. When giving NATO the blow, he will choose the easiest victim. Most likely one of smaller Baltic countries with large ethnic Russian population, one that can be overrun by tank division in several hours.
4) By the time leaders of NATO nations could even meet to discuss their response, the occupiers would already have taken control of all government and critical infrastructure buildings, and a caucus of local collaborators would have voted for accession to New Soviet Union.
Over the next few months, there would be heated debates both in the US media and in the US Administration, on whether the US should provide military support to the government that ceased to exist, and risk full blown nuclear confrontation with Russia. Media stars, such as Tucker Carlson, would argue during prime time that the Baltic state was corrupt, supported Nazis in 1941, and that the US has more important things to do.
In Europe, Germany would send a truckload of band aids, but would be hesitant to send troops, afraid of disruption to Nord Stream 1, 2 and 3 operations.
Elections in France would finally swing in favor of Le Pen, where citizens would overwhelmingly demand France’s exit from NATO, refusing to give lives of French military for freedom of the faraway country.
Other NATO states would also refuse meeting their Article 5 obligations, denouncing their NATO memberships.
5) Others, such as Poland, would be watching Russian hoards, made mostly of millions of Ukrainian conscripts, gathering at their borders.