EEVblog Electronics Community Forum
General => General Technical Chat => Topic started by: tom66 on August 24, 2022, 06:45:08 pm
-
As most people in the EU and UK will know, natural gas prices are rising like mad. There are a few reasons for this, although like many economic crises it is not caused by a singular factor.
I do not want to stray too deep into politics. This thread is to discuss the causes, consequences and solutions (both personal and nation/EU-wide) to the gas price crisis. Politics, such as direct criticism of current political parties, should be avoided, however, I believe it would be within the rules to discuss proposals such as subsidies, and behaviour of governments at a broad level. I rely on the moderators to guide as necessary - please advise if the thread is drifting too far.
The 'elephant in the room' is Russia's reduction of gas flows through Nord-Stream in apparent, though not admitted, retaliation for EU/NATO assistance of Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and prominent oligarchs. Russia is an important supplier of gas to the EU -- pre-invasion approximately 35% of all gas supplied to the EU was sourced directly from Russia. However, gas prices were rising long before Russia decided to invade. Russia had control over some storage facilities in Germany and was deliberately underfilling this storage, and the 2021 winter was colder and had lower renewable generation than other years. Gas prices are also on the rise because Covid lockdowns ended sooner than many expected, which created a market shock as industries rebooted.
Overall, gas futures have risen from around 18 euros/MWh pre-pandemic to over 250 euros/MWh [1] as of today. This is clearly unsustainable. It will lead to the collapse of businesses and suffering amongst those on lower incomes who cannot afford an energy bill 6-10x higher.
To substitute the missing gas, it has been proposed to build more LNG terminals and import the gas from the US, Qatar and SE Asia. But, an LNG terminal takes a substantial amount of time to build; at least 12 months. Further, there are only about 30 LNG tankers worldwide that are not contracted actively to deliver gas, but to replace just the missing Russian gas will require around 130-140 tankers, assuming each tanker runs on a 50 day supply cycle. Another issue is the tankers that Qatar can use are too large to fit through the Suez canal, and therefore have to take the long route, which further reduces their effective capacity. Further, the design of pipeline capacity is to reduce size the further into western Europe the gas goes, so LNG terminals in Spain or Portugal are no good for supplying the rest of Europe without pipeline upgrades too. Europe would need between 15-20 new LNG terminals. Whatever way you look at it, it just does not seem feasible.
With prices rising this high there is an argument towards governments that subsidies are needed for residential customers, but this is not trivial spending even for a government, At current rates, it would require in excess of £50 bn per year for the UK alone; and that ignores SMEs and larger industry. For energy-intensive industries, like aluminium smelting, it is hard to see how they could be feasible to run at 10x energy cost. Domestic customers are seeing at least a 2x cost in average bills by the end of the year, and 3-4x looks to be on the horizon. I also can't see how subsidies can work if demand stays the same, it will just cause further inflation in gas prices.
How long will the crisis last? If it requires Ukraine to prevail in the war, it may take upwards of five years. If the EU backs down, and withdraws support from Ukraine, then the crisis might reduce somewhat as gas is restored, but that is an unacceptable outcome for many and of course it is very likely to doom Ukraine to defeat. Still, it is quite possibly what Russia is betting upon.
On a personal level, I am considering adding a home battery, solar panels and super-insulating my home. These will have a large capital cost, so I am modelling whether the cost-benefit. A home battery, if charged on off peak electricity (at 3:1 or so difference), could pay back at normal usage in around 3-4 years, if the install is done myself. If solar is added, then the system can save even more in the summer, however it increases the overall cost. I've looked at the cost of insulation, and it's surprisingly expensive, but if prices rise then it may just need to be a cost that is swallowed. What personal actions are people taking to reduce their exposure to the increase in costs?
[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
-
Sure, install solar panels if you can afford them and own your house. And hope for the best - meaning, hope your government won't take measures to absurdly tax solar panels/electricity coming from them. I'm not holding my breath for those thinking they can get away from inflation on energy prices in some way. Yeah uh, not very optimistic?
-
Any tips and tricks for flat-dwellers?
-
DK electricity prices hit a 10 year all time high today - :scared: :-\
1 Kwh = 1.27€ - between 19.00 & 20.00
DK State taxes included in the above approx 30..40% of the above - They're cashing in biiiggg time on the increased "Spot prices"
Lowest price in this 24hr window is 0.83€/Kwh
/Bingo
-
IMHO: if you still have to insulate now, then you are too late. You'll be paying crazy prices for insulation material -if you can buy any-. Same for solar panels. Better ride it out. Buy a few extra sweaters and set the heating lower.
Maybe you can buy some materials on the second hand market and get a good deal. I recently swapped all the windows in the attic with used (good as new) ones with better glazing / higher insulation grade. The old ones where drafty due to degraded seals so I hope I'll keep more heat in this winter.
Actually the saddest part of the gas crisis is that the Netherlands is -literally- sitting on a huge gas bubble but it won't be used due to earth quake damage. But when push comes to shove, I assume the Dutch government will budge and replace whatever Russia isn't delivering. It is not like we don't have any gas in Europe.
For now high gas prices are a good motivator to switch to renewables which don't run out and can be sourced from many different sources. Let's call that a good thing.
-
DK electricity prices hit a 10 year all time high today - :scared: :-\
1 Kwh = 1.27€ - between 19.00 & 20.00
:o
-
DK electricity prices hit a 10 year all time high today - :scared: :-\
1 Kwh = 1.27€ - between 19.00 & 20.00
DK State taxes included in the above approx 30..40% of the above - They're cashing in biiiggg time on the increased "Spot prices"
Lowest price in this 24hr window is 0.83€/Kwh
/Bingo
On August 17 between 17-00 & 18-00 I had EUR 4 for 1 kWh, and with taxes it's more than EUR 5 for kWh :palm:.
-
I hope you all like cold showers and sandwiches* ;D
* Not recommended simultaneously
-
Only 2 people to blame for the uk's situation,thatcher and sid.
-
Announcement on the radio today said that the UK has just done a month with no Russian energy, whether or not that is also diesel I dont know, but one would assume so.
-
Announcement on the radio today said that the UK has just done a month with no Russian energy,
considering the piddling amount we import that aint much to boast about
-
Yeah, I'm not so sure.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/trendsinukimportsandexportsoffuels/2022-06-29 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/trendsinukimportsandexportsoffuels/2022-06-29)
-
I don't see how solar panels would help with the macro energy problem for northern Europe. For Spain Portugal and Italy, yes, as maximum insolation coincides nicely with max base load. The equation for British Columbia (my location) is even worse as our winters are notoriously cloudy. Micro hydro works for us as we have coastal mountains but there you either go small scale clandestine/stealth or attract regulators.
1.29 euro for 1kw-hr. Ouch, I can feel your pain from across the pond.
-
Seems like now might be a good time to start building some modern nuke plants. Actually 10 years ago would be a good time, but that's going to be difficult. Best not to get too dependent on a resource that you depend almost entirely on a foreign nation supplying. I'm hopeful that we (the USA) learn the same lesson but I am not optimistic.
-
It's become an increasing problem, perhaps, with more and more electronic devices over the years and the push for electric cars will only worsen the demand/supply issues.
-
As most people in the EU and UK will know, natural gas prices are rising like mad. There are a few reasons for this, although like many economic crises it is not caused by a singular factor.
Yes it is. brokers were gambling on gas futures at least since april 2021. At that time they had already moved on from steele/wood/etc and chips. Current gas and fuel prices were in effect about two months before the whole russia/ucraine war.
At that time a couple of those guys told me brace yourself for next winter.
I said how can you sleep at night?
They said: this is how the world works.
You can imagine what i would do to these people and their pretend world that has very real consequences to the average joe.
Financing world gamlbing is behind everything from the raw materials price craze to chippageddon to the current energy crisis. There is no reason for current prices. Supply is there, reserves are full, and yet prices don't go down because "the market" and as all chip companies are pushing record revenues while they have "no stock" oil companies are doing the exact same. Though this time governments are not going after them for some reason
-
I have a chimney, and an open fireplace, and maybe I'll consider buying a chainsaw, there is plenty of trees around. Though you are also already too late to cut down trees, it needs months to dry out. Apparently deforestation is an issue back in the old country.
Honestly, IDK. I have district heating, coming from a coal fired plant (yuk I know, this is what comes with the house). I'm not even connected to the gas network. But the Dutch government in their infinite wisdom, set the same price for district heating than gas heating. Maybe now they finally change this to something sensible, like paying based on costs. It's literally beyond my control.
DK electricity prices hit a 10 year all time high today - :scared: :-\
1 Kwh = 1.27€ - between 19.00 & 20.00
DK State taxes included in the above approx 30..40% of the above - They're cashing in biiiggg time on the increased "Spot prices"
Lowest price in this 24hr window is 0.83€/Kwh
I was just calculating that above something like 60c/kwh, it is cheaper to power your house from a diesel generator. This has to be some sort of joke, or someone is making extra profit.
-
As most people in the EU and UK will know, natural gas prices are rising like mad. What personal actions are people taking to reduce their exposure to the increase in costs?
You can also join Dont Pay UK.
https://dontpay.uk
-
From the UK: British consumers are set to pay most of their incomes this winter to help fatten the fat cat energy speculators, profiteers and sanctions flouting oligarks. And the British government tells the brits this is the price we must all pay for freedom. Meanwhile, the British government is enjoying one of it's biggest tax windfalls in history. Across all free western governments, it is in their self interest to spin out this crisis for as log as tax payers have money left to tax. Maybe our leaders are going to invest in solar roadways?
Look out Australia, there's a load of europeans on their way for your summer heat, as the air fare is likely cheaper than boiling kettle of water by November.
-
(...) And the British government tells the brits this is the price we must all pay for freedom.(...)
Funny, the french president said EXACTLY the same sentence: https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/payer-le-prix-de-notre-liberte-macron-doit-s-expliquer-sur-son-appel-aux-francais-estime-ciotti-20220822 (https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/payer-le-prix-de-notre-liberte-macron-doit-s-expliquer-sur-son-appel-aux-francais-estime-ciotti-20220822)
I bet many other european countries got the same message to the letter.
I'm sure this "political marketing" is pure coincidence. :-DD
-
As most people in the EU and UK will know, natural gas prices are rising like mad. What personal actions are people taking to reduce their exposure to the increase in costs?
You can also join Dont Pay UK.
https://dontpay.uk
Doesn't look like a lot of interest. They need 1 million until they hit the button.
-
Is the issue caused by speculation? Really?
Speculators make profit between the buy-sell spread; they attempt to profit from small changes in price. They do not generally profit from the price of the commodity itself, not for gas at least. This is because they don't usually store gas (that's expensive) and they don't produce it. So if the hypothesis that this high gas price is caused by speculation, then where is all of this storage, holding gas back from the market?
The "Don't Pay" campaign is silly. I understand that people are struggling and they may simply be unable to pay. However, the energy retailers, the companies who buy energy for their customers on the wholesale market, don't make a huge amount of money in any typical year. In a good year they'd make £25 per customer for a gas and electric contract, for a whole year. They're already making a loss at the current SVR tariff because the wholesale price has jumped even further ahead of the capped price, at least for the UK. The anger is directed at the wrong people and risks further collapse of the energy retail market and higher costs for all.
-
Announcement on the radio today said that the UK has just done a month with no Russian energy, whether or not that is also diesel I dont know, but one would assume so.
Do you believe those fuel or even gas is not coming from Russia ? Then I have a bridge to sell you. :-DD
Just try to search for news sources, there are two facts, India purchased multiple folds compared to previous year, for the oil from Russia as they got discounted price, and then the distilled results say like diesel fuel is transferred/offloaded quietly in the middle of ocean to some "Western brokers" ships, and then ship it to EU countries and UK included.
Other fact, is when the Ukraine invasion started, within days there were massive sanctions against Russia, one of them is stopping the insurance cover on oil/gas shipment thru sea for Russia energy product, but now, few weeks ago, this particular sanction is "QUITELY" >:D lifted, believe you're smart enough to guess what is that purpose, right ?
While your country's elites and those brokers are laughing their way to the bank, as the peasants like you are happy with that exorbitant price of energy while the main stream medias keep yelling "Stick it to Putin" and pay more as you are true patriot. :-DD
Point is, there are no countries have spare capacity to cover the energy supply lost from Russia, expecting oil/gas producing countries have excessively and idle spare capacity that able to replace Russia's output is naive.
Meanwhile , German's economy looks really-really dark ahead, have a friend working with German's chemical giant BASF, that employees now are so worry that mass lay off is going to happen, as the energy cost is too much for the factory to even run, let alone makes profit. This short commentary below explain the situation really well.
Remember, when German's economy collapsed, it will drag down the whole EU countries as most EU countries (public secret) are sucking on German's money to survive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Y2iXJj_Is (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Y2iXJj_Is)
-
Firstly all that push toward natural gas was based on false premises. Because when taken with transport and mining loses its GWP is worst of all fuels by a huge margin.
I wonder how economically hard it will be to switch for some industries to Propane as its price is low/stable now. It tends to be like two times the price of Natural gas, but its price jumps ten times while propane is bound to the oil price and that is relatively stable.
I know you will need a relatively expensive tank to start but gas boilers are the same, some just need to change jets or adjust the pressure, and some modern ones with lambda sensors will probably self-regulate. And changing jest in the burner is a matter of a few €
The main problem is messed-up energy policy of the EU
For me personally, it does not hit me as I use firewood during winter to heat the house and water. And using electricity from a company with plenty of nuclear power at a relatively stable price, there is a price increase like 60+% compared to previous years, but nothing crazy like many times more.
-
Check any window and door seals by inserting a piece of paper between frame and seal and then pull the piece of paper out. If there is no resistance, replace the seal.
In the case of wood frames, fit seals made of silicone for compensation of any wood shrinkage. Simply replacing with the same type of seal will usually not cut it in this case.
-
We were connected to Russian/Belarus electric grid where we could buy very cheap electricity. In the name of energy independence we disconnected from it earlier this year. An effect on Russia/Belarus is close to zero. They do not get to sell a bit of cheap electricity, we pay 10 times more. Does not sound like independence to me. And Germany shutting down their nuclear plants in favor of natural gas in the name of ecology was simply moronic, not to say hypocritical.
-
... Germany shutting down their nuclear plants in favor of natural gas in the name of ecology was simply moronic, not to say hypocritical.
Blindly follow that ecology cult, and probably also chanting for "the cult leader" like goddess Greta Thunberg :palm: , without a practical and economically sounds solution for a country that is one of world's top elite industrial work horse, is basically worst than moronic.
-
I still don't understand Germany's logic towards turning off nuclear. I also don't understand why they doubled down on NS2 after the Crimean invasion. Surely that would be the point to begin at least securing alternative supplies, planning for the possibility of Russia cutting off gas.
It's just incompetence - or malice - of the highest order. I like to subscribe to Hanlon's Razor ("never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity") but this is pretty damn stupid.
-
Despite the German government running around and telling everyone to save gas, this year more electric power is generated from gas than last year because it's exported to France (drought forces nuclear plants to run at lower power levels and several plants are shut down for maintenance) and Switzerland (less power from hydroelectric power plants due to drought). At the moment there is a discussion about running the last few German nuclear power plants a few years longer. BTW, fuel oil prices are crazy too (1.70 €/l today).
-
Surely that would be the point to begin at least securing alternative supplies, planning for the possibility of Russia cutting off gas.
I wouldn't call it Russia cutting off gas. It's way more like EU cutting itself off from Russian gas. You cannot basically steal all Russian money in European banks, make buying anything from Russia from very hard next to impossible, and then blame Russians for that with straight face. Latvian government for example is full of it. Our gas company is not allowed to buy natural gas from Russia from January 2023, and was not allowed to do it for a few months when sanctions took place. The only other option for us is LNG from a terminal in Lithuania. Which at best could supply Lithuania by itself, if there will be enough tankers (which I really doubt). Look on the gas pipeline map, where in the hell are we supposed to get it other than from Russia (through Belarus too)? So far our government is assuring everything is OK. Even though I'm already paying EUR 100 a month for natural gas to just heat water and for cooking. And EUR 150 for measly 300 kWh of electricity in July. Which will be even more for August. I guess the curtain will completely fall after parliament elections on October 1st.
-
Right, but you also can't allow Russia to invade a sovereign democratic country. So the sanctions are justified there, it is just that the EU cannot survive long without Russian gas, so it creates a dilemma. You can support Ukraine and have cold homes and shut down industry, or allow Ukraine to fall to the Russians and admit that Russia has too much control over European energy to make any retaliatory action practical in the long term.
I doubt Russia would allow anything but a total withdrawal of Western support from Ukraine before turning the gas taps back to full. Whilst it is almost certainly hurting Russia to only sell 20% of its gas (the country's GDP is 50% energy export and the majority customer is Europe; like EU there is strong focus to one customer - there are not enough pipelines to supply Asia, or export LNG etc.), I fear that Russia can probably outlast a reduction in gas purchases.
From a purely self-interested perspective: Russia's actions in cutting off gas are justified, because why would they fuel their enemy? But, Russia's actions in Ukraine absolutely are not justifiable.
-
From a purely self-interested perspective: Russia's actions in cutting off gas are justified, because why would they fuel their enemy? But, Russia's actions in Ukraine absolutely are not justifiable.
It's more like supplying it for free rather to an enemy. They will supply it even if they do not like us, but expecting them doing it for free is weird. A while ago Germany made a payment from a gas company owned by Gazprom which Germany seized a bit earlier. Gazprom rejected payment, no shit, Germans paid by money that was just stolen from them.
-
Heat pumps, heat pumps.
And heat pumps.
Add some solar panels if you can.
On macro level we need more nuclear (in addition to wind and solar).
In Finland we don't use almost any gas at all, except industry. It should be possible also in other countries.
-
Heat pumps, heat pumps.
And heat pumps.
Add some solar panels if you can.
On macro level we need more nuclear (in addition to wind and solar).
In Finland we don't use almost any gas at all, except industry. It should be possible also in other countries.
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.
-
Heat pumps reduce dependency on gas, which is going to be necessary anyway.
And around here they are still cheaper than gas, e.g. 40p/kWh electricity with COP=4 is 10p/kWh of heat roughly, meanwhile gas is 10p/kWh but once you include gas boiler efficiency (80-85% in good circumstances under high load and low delta-T) then the cost is greater.
Though the difference is still too small to make a huge amount of financial sense to switch to heat pumps, given one would cost ca. £10,000 to install in a modern home.
-
Heat pumps, heat pumps.
And heat pumps.
Add some solar panels if you can.
On macro level we need more nuclear (in addition to wind and solar).
In Finland we don't use almost any gas at all, except industry. It should be possible also in other countries.
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.
You just need the coal until there will be a suitable storage technology
But the activist and politics, who are mostly far far away and don't know the problems of common people, said no
-
We were connected to Russian/Belarus electric grid where we could buy very cheap electricity. In the name of energy independence we disconnected from it earlier this year. An effect on Russia/Belarus is close to zero. They do not get to sell a bit of cheap electricity, we pay 10 times more. Does not sound like independence to me. And Germany shutting down their nuclear plants in favor of natural gas in the name of ecology was simply moronic, not to say hypocritical.
In any case, you would need to make new agreements on gas transport from the various countries and oblasts anyway in the near future. There needs to be agreements after the dissolution on which country has ownership of the oil fields, or the pipelines. I don't expect this to be a long term problem, we just have to survive like one winter.
Heat pumps reduce dependency on gas, which is going to be necessary anyway.
And around here they are still cheaper than gas, e.g. 40p/kWh electricity with COP=4 is 10p/kWh of heat roughly, meanwhile gas is 10p/kWh but once you include gas boiler efficiency (80-85% in good circumstances under high load and low delta-T) then the cost is greater.
Though the difference is still too small to make a huge amount of financial sense to switch to heat pumps, given one would cost ca. £10,000 to install in a modern home.
In a moderate climate, like here, I think an air to air heat pump, which is an air conditioner can be used most of the time.
-
Agreed. I don't know so much about other countries but the UK rarely experiences many days below 0C. Heatpumps can maintain a year round COP of 3.5~4. You also have the option to use a hybrid system which burns gas on the coldest days but uses the heatpump for most heating otherwise.
And summer AC is going to become more and more important, especially for people who work from home!
-
The other option is to tear up the Paris accord and get back to exploring for fossil fuels and reopen coal mines and the like.
Winter without heating is downright miserable for anyone let alone the elderly that fought and worked bloody hard for what we have today without us turning our backs on their sacrifices.
Speaking of which, if Europe had made some back in February and punched back the world wouldn’t be in the mess it is today.
-
I doubt Russia would allow anything but a total withdrawal of Western support from Ukraine before turning the gas taps back to full. Whilst it is almost certainly hurting Russia to only sell 20% of its gas (the country's GDP is 50% energy export and the majority customer is Europe; like EU there is strong focus to one customer - there are not enough pipelines to supply Asia, or export LNG etc.), I fear that Russia can probably outlast a reduction in gas purchases.
This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing :palm:.
-
This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing :palm:.
Quite possibly true (would need to do the maths) for gas, though for oil I'm not sure I agree. Oil prices are not as insanely inflated and oil demand has dropped by 50%. Also you cannot forget the other sanctions are having a strong effect on the Russian economy. GDP is projected to fall by 25%.
I do wonder if Russia will however turn gas off entirely, as you say it could be quite profitable for them to keep Europe just sipping away at inflated levels. But this just highlights the ridiculousness of Nord-Stream and Germany's dependence on Russian gas. They were warned by the Baltic states and Poland that this was a terrible idea.
-
Heat pumps reduce dependency on gas, which is going to be necessary anyway.
And around here they are still cheaper than gas, e.g. 40p/kWh electricity with COP=4 is 10p/kWh of heat roughly, meanwhile gas is 10p/kWh but once you include gas boiler efficiency (80-85% in good circumstances under high load and low delta-T) then the cost is greater.
Though the difference is still too small to make a huge amount of financial sense to switch to heat pumps, given one would cost ca. £10,000 to install in a modern home.
In a moderate climate, like here, I think an air to air heat pump, which is an air conditioner can be used most of the time.
A modern air-source heat pump can keep COP above 3 down to -10°C ranges when need just low-temperature output for room heating and not deal with too much evaporator frosting
-
The UK government had the opportunity to life-extend both reactors at Hinkley Point B by 18 months which would have enormously helped over the next two winters. EDF put a plan to the UK government in spring this year asking for money to produce the safety case and implement any upgrades needed. It was rejected, and both reactors are now shutdown for good loosing us 1.3 GW.
-
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.
There is a big point. If gas and electricity cost the same, with a heat pump you create 3-5 times more energy than with gas (or direct resistive electrical heating). Even my old mother in law, now living in an empty house of her own, is now installing a ground source heat pump and ditching the oil boiler. And she isn't rich, living on low pension. Here, holes are usually drilled into the bedrock (our house has a 170 m hole) and it is done in one day. Drilling cost about 5000 €. The state gives some funding when switching from fossil to heat pumps.
In middle and southern parts of Europe, air-to-air heat pumps work fine, I would say down to -10 °C. Of course they do work at even lower temps, but it becomes wasteful. Here in the north, ground source is best.
-
So we are suffering for nothing :palm:.
I prefer to suffer in solidarity with Ukraine!
-
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.
There is a big point. If gas and electricity cost the same, with a heat pump you create 3-5 times more energy than with gas (or direct resistive electrical heating). Even my old mother in law, now living in an empty house of her own, is now installing a ground source heat pump and ditching the oil boiler. And she isn't rich, living on low pension. Here, holes are usually drilled into the bedrock (our house has a 170 m hole) and it is done in one day. Drilling cost about 5000 €. The state gives some funding when switching from fossil to heat pumps.
In middle and southern parts of Europe, air-to-air heat pumps work fine, I would say down to -10 °C. Of course they do work at even lower temps, but it becomes wasteful. Here in the north, ground source is best.
The problem is that gas is still significantly cheaper and a lot of electricity is generated from gas. And electricity will become even more expensive if demand increases. Not to say investment you need to make for the heating system replacement.
-
Heat pumps, heat pumps.
And heat pumps.
In many cases yes, but not in all. If your central heating needs a high flow temperature simply replacing the gas/oil furnace with a heat pump doesn't work (you have to invest much more to 'upgrade' your house). Doesn't work for historic buildings (over here) and large buildings are a challenge also. And with heat pumps and EVs we nead to generate at least two times more electric power than we currently do.
-
So we are suffering for nothing :palm:.
I prefer to suffer in solidarity with Ukraine!
If I'm going to suffer for some purpose, at least I expect some result from it. I don't see and don't expect any as far as things are going.
-
The UK government had the opportunity to life-extend both reactors at Hinkley Point B by 18 months which would have enormously helped over the next two winters. EDF put a plan to the UK government in spring this year asking for money to produce the safety case and implement any upgrades needed. It was rejected, and both reactors are now shutdown for good loosing us 1.3 GW.
Which is only postponing the real hard decisions of what provides each country’s energy solution.
Some seem to think even in the 21st century we should spend our evenings in candlelight !
-
The other option is to tear up the Paris accord and get back to exploring for fossil fuels and reopen coal mines and the like.
No. Not because of CO2 but because burning coal causes massive amounts of SO2 and NOx pollution which in turn makes people sick. Unless ofcourse you want to make sure your population doesn't get too old (like they seem to want in China).
Nuclear is the best option for now.
-
The problem is that gas is still significantly cheaper and a lot of electricity is generated from gas. And electricity will become even more expensive if demand increases. Not to say investment you need to make to make the heating system replacement.
Still makes sense to create that electricity centrally with efficient gas turbines and use waste heat for e.g. central heating. To have everyone burn gas in their own small boiler is more wasteful. Heck, even burning gasoline in big power plants would be more efficient and have everyone drive electric cars.
-
A modern air-source heat pump can keep COP above 3 down to -10°C ranges when need just low-temperature output for room heating and not deal with too much evaporator frosting
A recent study (monitoring modern heat pumps across the country) shows an average COP of 2.6 for Germany.
-
The other option is to tear up the Paris accord and get back to exploring for fossil fuels and reopen coal mines and the like.
No. Not because of CO2 but because burning coal causes massive amounts of SO2 and NOx pollution which in turn makes people sick. Unless ofcourse you want to make sure your population doesn't get too old (like they seem to want in China).
Nuclear is the best option for now.
Sure but being retired faster than being constructed.
Trump love or hate him warned the UK about their exposure to Russian energy supplies and they did nought to protect themselves and a year or 2 later the invasion came along and one didn’t need to be a rocket scientist to envisage how it would all play out.
Now look at all the suffering that may have been prevented if Europe had honoured their neighbour !
-
The other option is to tear up the Paris accord and get back to exploring for fossil fuels and reopen coal mines and the like.
No. Not because of CO2 but because burning coal causes massive amounts of SO2 and NOx pollution which in turn makes people sick. Unless ofcourse you want to make sure your population doesn't get too old (like they seem to want in China).
Nuclear is the best option for now.
The problem is nuclear power plants take 10 to 15 years to build
You need to cover this time with something
-
In many cases yes, but not in all. If your central heating needs a high flow temperature simply replacing the gas/oil furnace with a heat pump doesn't work (you have to invest much more to 'upgrade' your house). Doesn't work for historic buildings (over here) and large buildings are a challenge also. And with heat pumps and EVs we nead to generate at least two times more electric power than we currently do.
All this talk is stalling the inevitable. It works. 2/3 of my house is built in 1927. When switching to ground source heat pump, I installed larger radiators and some insulation in parts of the house and now get a total SCOP of 3.7 (in 2021). With even better insulation that would be around 4-5. My total electrical consumption has basically not changed due to this (don't have EVs yet, so that would add).
-
Not only do they take over a decade to build we have a strong culture in this country of building absolutely nothing because there's some rare bird nest in a tree somewhere, or because Ms Jones at 123 Street Road can see it just over the horizon if she uses binoculars and that's just not okay.
I kind of wish we just had the guts to actually build infrastructure that would collectively benefit all of society but we seem to pay the most attention to landowners and their concerns instead.
-
Not only do they take over a decade to build we have a strong culture in this country of building absolutely nothing because there's some rare bird nest in a tree somewhere, or because Ms Jones at 123 Street Road can see it just over the horizon if she uses binoculars and that's just not okay.
I kind of wish we just had the guts to actually build infrastructure that would collectively benefit all of society but we seem to pay the most attention to landowners and their concerns instead.
Have enough industry close and elderly freeze in a severe winter like that in WWII and everyone would change their tune.
Pain has a tendency to focus the mind.
-
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity? With current electricity prices it sucks anyway. As for solar panels, where I live they are almost useless in winter when you need that heat pump the most. Also unless you install water type with a lot of digging, air source type performance really sucks when there is freezing temperature outside.
There is a big point. If gas and electricity cost the same, with a heat pump you create 3-5 times more energy than with gas (or direct resistive electrical heating). Even my old mother in law, now living in an empty house of her own, is now installing a ground source heat pump and ditching the oil boiler. And she isn't rich, living on low pension. Here, holes are usually drilled into the bedrock (our house has a 170 m hole) and it is done in one day. Drilling cost about 5000 €. The state gives some funding when switching from fossil to heat pumps.
I just bought 600 litres of oil (Kerosine) which will see me out the winter - I use a lot of firewood. I paid 0.88 GBP/litre after tax & delivery charge, which is less than half the quoted rate just after the war started. But the price is going back up now already. At 10.35 kWh/litre that is 8.5 p/kWh. Today, electricity costs me about 29 p/kWh giving a breakeven COP for a heat pump of 3.4 (including hot water supply) which is just about realistic. But we will find out tomorrow what the electricity price will be from October to January: predictions are around 52 - 55 p/kWh, which makes oil cheaper than any feasible heat pump. And the price is expected to go up again in January.
No gas supply here, so I don't know what the current price is.
-
I wonder how practical self-arbitrage is. Buy energy when it is cheap, store in large LiFePO4 or Li-Ion battery, and use it for the day.
-
I wonder how practical self-arbitrage is. Buy energy when it is cheap, store in large LiFePO4 or Li-Ion battery, and use it for the day.
Basically what I do with oil!
-
Last I looked I could build a 15kWh battery - which when combined with solar - for about £7,000. Or 10kWh if I buy a pre made kit.
I've seen Economy7 tariffs at 20p/kWh in the off peak and say 60p/kWh in on peak. Compared to e.g. 52p/kWh in normal peak usage. If the usage can be all put into the off peak then there is a saving of 32p/kWh per unit (assuming 100% efficiency, blah blah). Excluding PHEV (that can charge in the off peak too), I use about 4000kWh per year electricity. I may be able to shift even more into the off peak but this is a base assumption. So that is saving ~£1,300 year, or payback time of about 5-6 years.
That almost seems reasonable. The batteries are warrantied for between 9-12 years, and if even a small amount of solar is added into the equation, it could make it a no brainer.
The question really is... will high energy prices remain here for 5 years or more? Or will it be a short blip and then a return to normal?
-
Not only do they take over a decade to build we have a strong culture in this country of building absolutely nothing because there's some rare bird nest in a tree somewhere, or because Ms Jones at 123 Street Road can see it just over the horizon if she uses binoculars and that's just not okay.
I kind of wish we just had the guts to actually build infrastructure that would collectively benefit all of society but we seem to pay the most attention to landowners and their concerns instead.
Problem is unless you’re near a plate boundary or volcano land isn’t growing on trees so rightfully what we have need be used wisely. From what we see the UK has mainly hamlets throughout the countryside in the effort to protect the productive farmland from senseless subdivision whereas here close to cities housing is expanding horizontally instead of vertically in some effort to protect the productive countryside.
Trouble is, someone has to grow balls and make decisions for the future rather than we all get backed harder against the wall before something is done. Europes current predicament only lays out the future for everywhere and we can all learn from it however the unpreparedness is a shock to its citizens but serves as a good warning to the rest of us to get our shit together by hammering bureaucrats for decent solutions or say stuff them all and go it alone !
-
Announcement on the radio today said that the UK has just done a month with no Russian energy,
I suspect that what they didn't tell you is that they were still running off of stored reserves. If they can run for a month with no imported fuel and without drawing down any of their reserves, then great. But I don't think that many countries will be able to and particularly over a period of years.
A lot of the Greens in Germany and elsewhere are exclaiming, "No problem we'll just built more windmills, more hydrogen plants", etc. The trouble is that it's going to take a lot of additional energy to built those additional windmill and other projects and it will take years to build them. On top of that the entire distribution systems for oil, LNG, electricity will also have to be built or vastly enlarged. So do you use what energy we have to heat our homes, distribute our food and run our industries or do we use it all to produce more gewgaw gadgets that we HOPE will produce some energy in (realistically) 20 to 30 years?
If you think that I'm not serious, consider the fact that Germany has been widely installing wind turbines since about 1995 but as of 2021 those still only provide 22% of their electrical needs and contributes nothing to their oil and LNG requirements.
Importing LNG has the same sorts of problems; there aren't enough ports in Europe to deliver it to, not nearly enough vessels to move the necessary amounts and no distribution system once you get it to a port. And I don't think that the US, Canada, the middle east or anywhere else has the existing port capacity to ship the needed amounts of LNG.
What is needed for the US, Canada, England and the EU to THROW their environmental studies and other long slow, drawn out, processes out the window and to engage in a CRASH PROGRAM of ship building, port building, pipeline building, oil and gas well drilling and the other NECESSARY infrastructure as quickly as humanly possible. Similar to the way that the ALCAN highway, the Ledo road and many ports in the Pacific were built in World War II. Until that's done, the people in Europe are going to go cold and hungry.
Many Enviro-nuts are touting Hydrogen but there is NO infrastructure in place for a hydrogen production, distribution or cars or industry to use it. I hate to use the term "A pipe dream", but that exactly describes the future for hydrogen for at least the next 40 years. And most like MUCH longer given the priorities of the other more realistic energy supply systems.
-
Yeah, I'm not so sure.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/trendsinukimportsandexportsoffuels/2022-06-29 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/trendsinukimportsandexportsoffuels/2022-06-29)
UK imports loads but not from Russia
-
All this talk is stalling the inevitable. It works. 2/3 of my house is built in 1927. When switching to ground source heat pump, I installed larger radiators and some insulation in parts of the house and now get a total SCOP of 3.7 (in 2021).
Over here special protection rules apply to historic buildings. You aren't allowed to change the face of such a building in any way. So you can't simply add insulation. And adding insulation at the inside would most likely damage the walls on the long term by shifting the dew point further inside. Heats pumps are great but not a panacea. We have to check the feasibility for each building.
-
Many Enviro-nuts are touting Hydrogen but there is NO infrastructure in place for a hydrogen production, distribution or cars or industry to use it.
You are 1000% wrong about this. https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2022/shell-to-start-building-europes-largest-renewable-hydrogen-plant.html (https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2022/shell-to-start-building-europes-largest-renewable-hydrogen-plant.html)
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/06/30/netherlands-to-build-10-gw-national-network-for-green-hydrogen/ (https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/06/30/netherlands-to-build-10-gw-national-network-for-green-hydrogen/)
Hydrogen is going to be the new oil & gas.
-
Over here special protection rules apply to historic buildings. You aren't allowed to change the face of such a building in any way. So you can't simply add insulation. And adding insulation at the inside would most likely damage the walls on the long term by shifting the dew point further inside. Heats pumps are great but not a panacea. We have to check the feasibility for each building.
It's still possible to do something (e.g. insulation in attic). And it is possible to install much larger radiators so that you can run lower heating temp. It won't be as efficient as a modern building, but people have done it. And if it can't be done, then some rules have to be changed or new methods be found. I've mainly insulated inside, but you have to be careful, you can't use as much insulation as in a modern building. Keep in mind, the larger and more radiators you use, the lower the temp can be and the better the efficiency of the heat pump. I don't use thermostats in radiators at all, to not prevent the pump from working optimally. The system is optimized to use the best static curve between outside and inside temp. This of course takes some time and expertise to tune, so I don't expect that everyone will have as good results. Inevitably, there will be a lot of installed heat pumps that works on too high temperature, fighting thermostats and wasting electricity. Depends a lot on the installer, too.
Ultimately, floor heating is best, because you will get largest possible heating area. This could possibly be an option in older houses. I did consider doing this. Now only the 1/3 newly built part of the house has floor heating, but the heat pump doesn't benefit much from it because it has to produce higher temp for the radiators (5-10 °C higher).
-
Hydrogen is going to be the new oil & gas.
I do see a strong future for hydrogen (or syngas, but probably both will be used.)
Whilst I'm not convinced it makes sense for vehicles, the use of hydrogen as a storage mechanism for renewable energy is just a no brainer. There is no other technology that can possibly compete for seasonal energy storage. Not batteries, not molten salt, not pumped hydro.
It does worry me that the infrastructure is only trickling into place though. We need gigawatt-scale plants!
-
UK imports loads but not from Russia
Biggest import from russia was coal , https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9523/ Around 2% of uk electricity is generated from coal, in summer we use around a third less electricity than winter so it seems theirs plenty of capacity in summer not to be burning the stuff.Of course we could be digging our own home produced coal but someone put a stop to that,funnily enough the same person was also responsible for selling the north sea oil and gas of to their mates the highest bidder to make the books look good,instead of following norways example.
-
I do see a strong future for hydrogen (or syngas, but probably both will be used.)
Whilst I'm not convinced it makes sense for vehicles, the use of hydrogen as a storage mechanism for renewable energy is just a no brainer. There is no other technology that can possibly compete for seasonal energy storage. Not batteries, not molten salt, not pumped hydro.
The low efficiency of creating it by electrolysis is unfortunate, but not necessarily a show stopper depending on the source of the energy input. What I can't see is why we would ever use hydrogen as H2 (an inconvenient gas that's hard to liquify, low energy density, explosive in pretty much all concentrations, leaks through almost everything, embrittles metals, etc.) rather than stick it to some carbon atoms and make synthetic methane or synthetic LPG. This carbon could be from an agricultural source making the output fuel carbon neutral, or it could be petroleum-derived, which would still give a significant reduction in net CO2 by increasing the energy content of the fuel.* About the only time pure hydrogen is useful is for fuel cells which does not seem to be the primary use-case when hydrogen is discussed.
That said, in the UK hydrogen seems to be mainly pushed by organisations that own large amounts of gas distribution infrastructure, and it feels a lot like them desperately trying to stay relevant and keep their network of pipes valuable.
* e.g. convert C35H70, a randomly chosen molecule that roughly equates to heavy fuel oil, to 35x CH4. Calculating crudely about an additional 50% more energy is released on combustion, for the same CO2 emission.
-
All this talk is stalling the inevitable. It works. 2/3 of my house is built in 1927. When switching to ground source heat pump, I installed larger radiators and some insulation in parts of the house and now get a total SCOP of 3.7 (in 2021).
Over here special protection rules apply to historic buildings. You aren't allowed to change the face of such a building in any way. So you can't simply add insulation. And adding insulation at the inside would most likely damage the walls on the long term by shifting the dew point further inside. Heats pumps are great but not a panacea. We have to check the feasibility for each building.
Yeah, at one point we have to decide what's more important. Keeping old towns the same shape as a century ago, while living in constant acid rain and 40 degrees outside during the winter, or changing it and having a future. This was a hyperbole.
-
I do see a strong future for hydrogen (or syngas, but probably both will be used.)
Whilst I'm not convinced it makes sense for vehicles, the use of hydrogen as a storage mechanism for renewable energy is just a no brainer. There is no other technology that can possibly compete for seasonal energy storage. Not batteries, not molten salt, not pumped hydro.
The low efficiency of creating it by electrolysis is unfortunate, but not necessarily a show stopper depending on the source of the energy input. What I can't see is why we would ever use hydrogen as H2 (an inconvenient gas that's hard to liquify, low energy density, explosive in pretty much all concentrations, leaks through almost everything, embrittles metals, etc.) rather than stick it to some carbon atoms and make synthetic methane or synthetic LPG. This carbon could be from an agricultural source making the output fuel carbon neutral, or it could be petroleum-derived, which would still give a significant reduction in net CO2 by increasing the energy content of the fuel.* About the only time pure hydrogen is useful is for fuel cells which does not seem to be the primary use-case when hydrogen is discussed.
That said, in the UK hydrogen seems to be mainly pushed by organisations that own large amounts of gas distribution infrastructure, and it feels a lot like them desperately trying to stay relevant and keep their network of pipes valuable.
* e.g. convert C35H70, a randomly chosen molecule that roughly equates to heavy fuel oil, to 35x CH4. Calculating crudely about an additional 50% more energy is released on combustion, for the same CO2 emission.
The same pipes that now carry Natural gas around cities used to carry Town/Coal gas in the past and it is about 50% H2 and it worked without any issues.
You can switch to pure H2 distribution without major issues
There is no reason to not do so. It worked fine hundred years back.
It makes sense they want it. With Abundant renewables, there will be windows with electricity at zero or "negative" price. And they can with reasonably big storage make a fortune on using it and storing hydrogen.
It is pretty safe to store it and when it leaks it just safely rises to the sky.
-
. However, the energy retailers, the companies who buy energy for their customers on the wholesale market, don't make a huge amount of money in any typical year. In a good year they'd make £25 per customer for a gas and electric contract, for a whole year. They're already making a loss at the current SVR tariff because the wholesale price has jumped even further ahead of the capped price, at least for the UK. The anger is directed at the wrong people and risks further collapse of the energy retail market and higher costs for all.
EDIT, Website I got Centricas profit from, missed out the decimal point, thought 134 billion was a bit high lol, should be 1.34 billion.
Trouble is, a lot of energy providers set themselves up with no real safety net, no real regulations, undercutting others, convincing people to switch to them.
Now, if I’ve read correctly, the reason the daily charge has approx doubled is to claim back the money it cost to take over those failed companies. Many directors etc of those failed companies, happily made hundreds of thousands and we are now paying the cost.
26 companies went bust from Aug 2021 to Dec 2021, compared to 23 companies going bust between Nov 2016 to Jan 2021
According to the FT a few days ago, “The cost to UK households of bailing out nationalised energy retailer Bulb is expected to soar to more than £4bn by the spring unless the government achieves a sale, saddling every home with an additional £150 or more on its bills next year”
From Bloomberg:
“ The owners of some UK energy suppliers that collapsed within the past year are set to walk away with payouts reaching tens of millions of pounds at the same time every household in the country is footing the bill for those failures…….
…
The People’s Energy Company Ltd. came into being with crowdfunded cash and a pledge to tackle fuel poverty in Britain. Four years later, it failed. Even so, founders David Pike and Karin Sode may receive about £50 million once company creditors are satisfied. In addition, they won’t be on the hook for the £283 million cost of shifting their customers to Centrica Plc’s British Gas.
…
It’s all legal, and shareholders of other bust utilities may be compensated, as well. Around 30 energy suppliers in the UK have disintegrated since August because they couldn’t afford electricity or natural gas”
Sure some energy suppliers have little to do with energy generation, but then you have the likes of British Gas etc, sure it could be argued they are different parts of these companies, but when you have say:
British Gas CEO didn’t take his £1.1m bonus THIS year due to soaring household costs (He’ll have to pay his bills from his £750k salary instead),
but Centrica who owns them, profits went from £262 million for 6 months of 2021 to £134 billion for the same 6 months of this year
Shell announced last month that it would return billions of dollars to its shareholders as the oil giant continued to profit from massive energy price hikes following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
BP was accused of “unfettered profiteering” after it said on Tuesday underlying profits had tripled to $8.5bn (£6.9bn) between April and June, thanks to high oil prices. It was its biggest quarterly profit in 14 years and BP said it would hand out nearly £4bn to shareholders as a result
Power generation companies:
Eon £3.4 billion profit first half of 2022 (chief executive pay £1 million)
National grid £3.4 billion profit 2021 - 2022 (chief exec pay over same period £6.5 million)
RWE £2.2 billion profit first half of 2022. (Chief exec pay £3.6 million in 2021)
Scottish Power £925 million first half of 2022 (Chief exec pay £1.35 for 2021
Drax £225 million first half of 2022 (Chief exec pay £2.7 million 2021)
EDF £4.5 billion LOSS first half of 2022 (highest paid director £1 million on 2021)
EDF losses are mainly due to their nuclear power plant problems and other problems in France.
Bearing in mind say Eon, British Gas, Scottish Power etc are household suppliers, when someone on the England (Scotlands the same rate). min wage of £9.50 per hour, has seen the average annual gas and electricity bill rise from:
1st Oct 2021. £1,277 per year (12% rise on previous year)
1st April 2022 £1,971 per year. ((54% rise)
1st October 2022 (Latest predictions, I believe the announcement is tomorrow) £3,554 per year (80% rise)
1st January 2023 (Latest predictions) £4,650 a year (31% rise)
1st April 2023 currently estimated to rise somewhere between £5,300 and £6,550.
So someone on min wage in 2021 was paying an average of £107 a month for gas and electric
Same person is currently paying £165 a month
From October they will be paying £296 per month
From January they will be paying £387 per month
And if the lowest prediction for April 2023 comes true, they will be paying £442 a month
That’s without the fact that the poorest tend to be on prepayment meters, and are charged an extra 2% for the suppliers to have their money in advance.
And those that don’t pay by direct debit but pay when they receive their bills, have to pay an extra 7%
I’m sorry, but I fully understand why they blame all energy companies whether that company produces power or not.
I’m surprised millions aren’t out on the streets etc.
I can only afford Januarys rise by instead of being able to currently save about £200 - £300, to being able to save nothing and go into my savings (which aren’t a lot, about £3k) and when I’ve used that up, if these prices continue, I’ll have no option other than to take money out of my (not very big) drawdown pension to cover my bills, luckily my mortgage is paid, if it wasn’t, I wouldn’t be able to pay Januarys bills.
And I count myself lucky in that while annoying, while I might end up using my pension (only 58), at least I can pay it, at least I won’t be worrying about how I’m going to pay my bills etc, I don’t know how many will cope.
And of course on top of that, prices of everything else is going through the roof, food especially.
-
It won't be long until the "Won't pay movement" just turns into a grim reality with a name change to, can't pay. £6k per year for energy? Nah, not getting that out of me and for many people, they simply do not have it, no matter what savings they make.
This is not a good time and some very serious unsettlement is coming to the streets very soon.
-
UK imports loads but not from Russia
Biggest import from russia was coal , https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9523/ Around 2% of uk electricity is generated from coal, in summer we use around a third less electricity than winter so it seems theirs plenty of capacity in summer not to be burning the stuff.Of course we could be digging our own home produced coal but someone put a stop to that,funnily enough the same person was also responsible for selling the north sea oil and gas of to their mates the highest bidder to make the books look good,instead of following norways example.
Love him or loath him, every single thing Arthur Scargill said, was 100% true. I loath the person you don’t mention, but won’t mention her myself to keep this free from being political.
-
A recent study (monitoring modern heat pumps across the country) shows an average COP of 2.6 for Germany.
How many of those are with high temp radiators? The industry is infamous for cocking it up.
-
A recent study (monitoring modern heat pumps across the country) shows an average COP of 2.6 for Germany.
How many of those are with high temp radiators? The industry is infamous for cocking it up.
People think they are maintenance free when they cost so much
Yet you will see this and people complaining about how bad it works
(https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/styles/embed_image_large_480px_width_/public/2022-06/DirtyAC1.jpg?itok=wu0jUnLk)
-
Hydrogen is going to be the new oil & gas.
I do see a strong future for hydrogen (or syngas, but probably both will be used.)
Whilst I'm not convinced it makes sense for vehicles, the use of hydrogen as a storage mechanism for renewable energy is just a no brainer. There is no other technology that can possibly compete for seasonal energy storage. Not batteries, not molten salt, not pumped hydro.
If you Google around a bit, you can find reports that say exactly the same. Batteries are good for storage for single digit hours. Beyond that, hydrogen is more cost effective.
-
The same pipes that now carry Natural gas around cities used to carry Town/Coal gas in the past and it is about 50% H2 and it worked without any issues.
You can switch to pure H2 distribution without major issues
There is no reason to not do so. It worked fine hundred years back.
It makes sense they want it. With Abundant renewables, there will be windows with electricity at zero or "negative" price. And they can with reasonably big storage make a fortune on using it and storing hydrogen.
It is pretty safe to store it and when it leaks it just safely rises to the sky.
The other thing to realise is that most of the old pipes under roads etc made of iron which are vulnerable to embrittlement, are reaching end of life anyway due to corrosion and temperature cycles. And so they are due for replacement in the next 10 years anyway.
When I lived in Leeds the gas authority there was conducting an extensive replacement process. All pipes were being replaced with plastic or polymer which can support H2. They are currently only carrying CH4, but there is clearly the aim in the future to carry H2.
Also, almost every boiler made in the last 10yrs is capable of burning a part H2 mix without modification. And with some simple modifications it should be possible to get up to 90-100%.
Long term I think heat pumps make the most sense for new homes, and for old homes on a case-by-case basis perhaps. But H2 as a heating gas also makes a huge amount of sense. It combusts cleanly producing only water vapour, has similar energy density to CH4 (a little less but not drastically so) and can use as much existing infrastructure as possible. It may even be possible to fractionate the gas at local distribution, so you can switch an area to 100% H2 once all the boilers in that area have been tested/upgraded.
IMO even bigger than climate change is energy security, if a country can produce its own gas, no more Russia/Saudi/etc. controlling the gas market.
-
I do see a strong future for hydrogen (or syngas, but probably both will be used.)
Whilst I'm not convinced it makes sense for vehicles, the use of hydrogen as a storage mechanism for renewable energy is just a no brainer. There is no other technology that can possibly compete for seasonal energy storage. Not batteries, not molten salt, not pumped hydro.
The low efficiency of creating it by electrolysis is unfortunate, but not necessarily a show stopper depending on the source of the energy input. What I can't see is why we would ever use hydrogen as H2 (an inconvenient gas that's hard to liquify, low energy density, explosive in pretty much all concentrations, leaks through almost everything, embrittles metals, etc.) rather than stick it to some carbon atoms and make synthetic methane or synthetic LPG.
If you dig a bit deeper into hydrogen you'll find that it is widely used in many industrial processes. People that make such claims seem to reason from a POV where the large scale use of hydrogen is something completely new. It simply isn't. The technology and infrastructure are there, it just needs to be scaled up from large to extra-extra-large.
IMO even bigger than climate change is energy security, if a country can produce its own gas, no more Russia/Saudi/etc. controlling the gas market.
For Europe that is not going to change. There simply isn't enough land to support the required amount of renewable sources like solar and wind. Where it comes to solar, it makes sense to put the solar panels in the north part of Africa anyway because there is about twice as much energy coming from the sun in those areas compared to a large part of Europe. Marocco, Tunesia and Algeria are already gearing up to become hydrogen producers / exporters.
-
I have a chimney, and an open fireplace, and maybe I'll consider buying a chainsaw, there is plenty of trees around. Though you are also already too late to cut down trees, it needs months to dry out. Apparently deforestation is an issue back in the old country.
An open fireplace is virtually useless for heating, I have heard in some cases it is a net negative since most of the heat goes up the flue and then it continues to draw heat out of the house after the fire dies down before you can close the damper. A sealed wood stove is lovely though, I installed an insert in one of my fireplaces years ago and I love it.
-
Is the issue caused by speculation? Really?
Speculators make profit between the buy-sell spread; they attempt to profit from small changes in price. They do not generally profit from the price of the commodity itself, not for gas at least. This is because they don't usually store gas (that's expensive) and they don't produce it. So if the hypothesis that this high gas price is caused by speculation, then where is all of this storage, holding gas back from the market?
The "Don't Pay" campaign is silly. I understand that people are struggling and they may simply be unable to pay. However, the energy retailers, the companies who buy energy for their customers on the wholesale market, don't make a huge amount of money in any typical year. In a good year they'd make £25 per customer for a gas and electric contract, for a whole year. They're already making a loss at the current SVR tariff because the wholesale price has jumped even further ahead of the capped price, at least for the UK. The anger is directed at the wrong people and risks further collapse of the energy retail market and higher costs for all.
That's typical unfortunately. About 10 years or so ago when gasoline first topped $2/gallon there was a rash of incidents where bricks were thrown through windows of gas stations and other crimes of that sort. The gas stations of course weren't the issue, they don't make much profit at all on the gas.
-
Right, but you also can't allow Russia to invade a sovereign democratic country. So the sanctions are justified there, it is just that the EU cannot survive long without Russian gas, so it creates a dilemma. You can support Ukraine and have cold homes and shut down industry, or allow Ukraine to fall to the Russians and admit that Russia has too much control over European energy to make any retaliatory action practical in the long term.
Why can't you? I think it's pretty crappy what Russia is doing, but that doesn't make it yours or my duty to get involved and dictate what one sovereign nation does to another. It's pretty hard to tell Russia what to do, and there isn't much the rest of the world is going to be able to do to persuade them short of starting WWIII. I suspect the sanctions will have a negligible effect on Russia, all they are really doing is causing suffering in the countries imposing them.
-
Problem is unless you’re near a plate boundary or volcano land isn’t growing on trees so rightfully what we have need be used wisely. From what we see the UK has mainly hamlets throughout the countryside in the effort to protect the productive farmland from senseless subdivision whereas here close to cities housing is expanding horizontally instead of vertically in some effort to protect the productive countryside.
This is a big problem in my region. Over the past decades we have paved/built over millions of acres of prime agricultural land. People love to crap on the rural regions, but forget that's where the bulk of our food comes from.
-
In the lead up to the war, Putin never really cared about NATO buffers or even an impending invasion of Donbas (or biolabs). The closest Putin came to a Casus Belli was ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“. Now consider that Russia already said, "Baltic states’ treatment of Russians reminiscent of true apartheid". They consider all Russified/Russian empire nations theirs to bully and unfortunately, we already made some of them NATO and EU members.
Coming out on the side of Ukraine had a Real Politik purpose. If you want to be really callous you could say Ukraine has served its purpose, but there was a purpose.
-
It's pretty hard to tell Russia what to do, and there isn't much the rest of the world is going to be able to do to persuade them short of starting WWIII. I suspect the sanctions will have a negligible effect on Russia, all they are really doing is causing suffering in the countries imposing them.
What makes you believe that nuclear deterrence no longer works?
Sanctions do have negligible effect, because there are no real sanctions. Russian energy exports are stronger than ever. EU’s oil embargo will only start in January 2023, and EU has no plans to cut natural gas imports any time soon.
-
A recent study (monitoring modern heat pumps across the country) shows an average COP of 2.6 for Germany.
How many of those are with high temp radiators? The industry is infamous for cocking it up.
No idea! The COP value is for air-water types.
-
1st January 2023 (Latest predictions) £4,650 a year (31% rise)
Leaving someone on the highest rate disability benefits around £155 A YEAR for everything else
some very serious unsettlement is coming to the streets very soon.
Right after ive watched the new series of gladiators baking on ice, o but theirs a cory special on after so can we wait till that's finished
-
The low efficiency of creating it by electrolysis is unfortunate, but not necessarily a show stopper depending on the source of the energy input. What I can't see is why we would ever use hydrogen as H2 (an inconvenient gas that's hard to liquify, low energy density, explosive in pretty much all concentrations, leaks through almost everything, embrittles metals, etc.) rather than stick it to some carbon atoms and make synthetic methane or synthetic LPG.
If you dig a bit deeper into hydrogen you'll find that it is widely used in many industrial processes. People that make such claims seem to reason from a POV where the large scale use of hydrogen is something completely new. It simply isn't. The technology and infrastructure are there, it just needs to be scaled up from large to extra-extra-large.
Sure, there's plenty of hydrogen used industrially, though I would be enormously surprised if industrial hydrogen use is within two orders of magnitude of methane use. Almost none of that is made electrolytically, instead by reacting natural gas with steam. Nor does the fact that it's widely used industrially have any bearing on whether it is a good idea to distribute it to the general public in a network of pipes not designed for it, through private pipes not designed for it, to large amounts of equipment also not designed for it.
The same pipes that now carry Natural gas around cities used to carry Town/Coal gas in the past and it is about 50% H2 and it worked without any issues.
I am not sure I agree with "without any issues". It's generally accepted that coal gas had an increased explosion risk in domestic use due to the very wide range of gas:air ratios over which it will ignite. Coal gas was also horribly toxic due to the carbon monoxide content, and is one of those things that probably would be considered very unsafe if it were invented today (like Aspirin, cars with single-skin petrol tanks 4 inches above the road, 3rd rail electric trains, etc).
I am not that against distributing hydrogen in place of methane, I just am yet to be convinced there are all that many benefits over distributing electricity or distributing synthetic methane (which gives complete backwards compatibility). For vehicles hydrogen is a bugger to store and synthetic-LPG made with electrolytic hydrogen would make more sense. For grid-scale storage, where are we proposing to store huge amounts of hydrogen? In old gas fields or as liquid? What's the round trip efficiency? (if we make it electrolytically at 70% efficiency and then burn it in CC gas turbines at 40% we're down to 28%)
-
... I suspect the sanctions will have a negligible effect on Russia, all they are really doing is causing suffering in the countries imposing them.
Agreed. Russia declared war on the free world, and now the government's of the free world are cashing in. Not just through increased tax revenues but, their otherwise unstable political positions are being shored up. Meanwhile the price of grain and cude oil is good news in the mid west and southern USA, which is just in time for the primaries. Then there all of those defense contracts. Or defence if you are British.
As for our friends in Deutschland, such is the price to pay for making their economy addicted to Russia's give away gas/gaz. France is laughing. Was ist das Nord Stream? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream
-
The low efficiency of creating it by electrolysis is unfortunate, but not necessarily a show stopper depending on the source of the energy input. What I can't see is why we would ever use hydrogen as H2 (an inconvenient gas that's hard to liquify, low energy density, explosive in pretty much all concentrations, leaks through almost everything, embrittles metals, etc.) rather than stick it to some carbon atoms and make synthetic methane or synthetic LPG.
If you dig a bit deeper into hydrogen you'll find that it is widely used in many industrial processes. People that make such claims seem to reason from a POV where the large scale use of hydrogen is something completely new. It simply isn't. The technology and infrastructure are there, it just needs to be scaled up from large to extra-extra-large.
Sure, there's plenty of hydrogen used industrially, though I would be enormously surprised if industrial hydrogen use is within two orders of magnitude of methane use. Almost none of that is made electrolytically, instead by reacting natural gas with steam. Nor does the fact that it's widely used industrially have any bearing on whether it is a good idea to distribute it to the general public in a network of pipes not designed for it, through private pipes not designed for it, to large amounts of equipment also not designed for it.
That is the kicker: the public gas distribution network in the NL (and appearantly in the UK as well) is already being modified to support hydrogen. In the NL there are several small suburbs which are using hydrogen instead of natural gas already.
And for sure most of the hydrogen is produced from natural gas nowadays but hydrogen electrolysis plants that use electricity from wind & solar are going to be built in the next couple of years. It is not something that happens overnight or has all the pieces in place at the same time.
-
btw I know when I was small they switched from Coal/Town gas to Natural gas where I lived. It was not so long ago. In 1996.
I'm not sure if they used coal or reformed it from natural gas. But it might be coal fed as there were plenty of coal mines and some coal-fired power plants operating to this day.
But they just purged the lines and do something with gas appliances, but they stayed in place, grandma uses that same stove for 50 years.
I just wonder if it can be in the worst case swapped back coal gas. I know the generator equipment will be long gone. But Europe has coal and even if not, it can be transported way easier than Natural gas.
-
It's pretty hard to tell Russia what to do, and there isn't much the rest of the world is going to be able to do to persuade them short of starting WWIII. I suspect the sanctions will have a negligible effect on Russia, all they are really doing is causing suffering in the countries imposing them.
What makes you believe that nuclear deterrence no longer works?
Sanctions do have negligible effect, because there are no real sanctions. Russian energy exports are stronger than ever. EU’s oil embargo will only start in January 2023, and EU has no plans to cut natural gas imports any time soon.
I think that's covered by "short of starting WWIII". Nuclear deterrence may work to a point, but does anyone really think we are going to use them? If we did the result would be catastrophic.
-
Lefti US citizen Jimmy Dore on UK energy companies outrageous profits by looting compliant brain washed UK citizens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciRsaMAXxUA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciRsaMAXxUA)
-
If you Google around a bit, you can find reports that say exactly the same. Batteries are good for storage for single digit hours. Beyond that, hydrogen is more cost effective.
There's thermal storage that's very cost effective for a few days. Some larger installations might be able to push it to a few weeks before insulation costs render it impractical.
-
In todays news is Japan doing a full 180 reversing its policy of moving away from nuclear generation......yes it seems they are governed by adults and not influenced by the whims of children.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/24/japan-signals-return-to-nuclear-power-to-stabilise-energy-supply (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/24/japan-signals-return-to-nuclear-power-to-stabilise-energy-supply)
-
A recent study (monitoring modern heat pumps across the country) shows an average COP of 2.6 for Germany.
How many of those are with high temp radiators? The industry is infamous for cocking it up.
Many variables to manipulate/consider if you want a particular "answer" there. You can see the wildly varying performance of whats available "new" in the market in:
"Study on Air-to-Water Heat Pumps Seasonal Performances for Heating in Greece" January 2022
That has air-water SCOP at several different supply temperatures, in some comparable climates (not just stereotypical sunny Greece). The best performers are above 3.0 and in more optimal situations >4.5. But the "average" of whats installed and in operation (even for new installs) could easily be far lower so 2.6 doesnt sound impossible or unreasonable. But that points back to people not understanding/caring about the details and bothering to find an installer who can deliver a well sized and tuned system. "bought heat pump, cashing subsidies saving planet" box ticked.
air-water is already putting in a synthetic constraint/requirement that is not essential, air-air can meet the essential human need for heat in almost all situations, still with a SCOP above 3.0.
3.0 is just a round number that happens to be close to the current relative price of the energy inputs in most countries. SCOP 2.0 can be worthwhile depending on the specific costs considered/exposed, such as replacing resistive heating where gas isn't available or more expensive. Or where the majority of the energy delivered would be from solar/wind. Marginal electricity generation is not going to be 100% produced from gas (across the seasons as the SCOP figure).
-
There's thermal storage that's very cost effective for a few days. Some larger installations might be able to push it to a few weeks before insulation costs render it impractical.
There is a Finnish concept of storing heat in sand that keeps the heat for months. Currently the first product has been installed with 8 MWh capacity. It's cheap and seems to work.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520 (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520)
-
There's thermal storage that's very cost effective for a few days. Some larger installations might be able to push it to a few weeks before insulation costs render it impractical.
There is a Finnish concept of storing heat in sand that keeps the heat for months. Currently the first product has been installed with 8 MWh capacity. It's cheap and seems to work.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520 (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520)
Around 100 tons of sand costs 7000 EUR, it's in short supply in the world.
And I'm sure all these people living here with their ~40 sqm gardens would love to have half of it dedicated to a huge concrete silo.
As I said this before, it's a bad idea.
With P2G, the same energy can be stored in about 600 KG of LNG, or 70 times the energy in a single intermodal tank that you can transport and stack and store it anywhere, far away from the city.
-
Around 100 tons of sand costs 7000 EUR, it's in short supply in the world.
And I'm sure all these people living here with their ~40 sqm gardens would love to have half of it dedicated to a huge concrete silo.
As I said this before, it's a bad idea.
With P2G, the same energy can be stored in about 600 KG of LNG, or 70 times the energy in a single intermodal tank that you can transport and stack and store it anywhere, far away from the city.
I've heard there are sand in Sahara... For this type of usage, you can use sand that doesn't qualify for construction.
There will not be a single solution that will work everywhere for now, today, so I applaud every project and idea. How the future evolves, we don't know. It's not always one solution, and not always the best solution that "wins".
-
Does the amount of sand particularly matter - you build it once and it lasts 30 years? You may as well complain about concrete used for nuclear reactors, as that's not zero carbon production either.
Also 7MWh / 7000 euro = 1kWh / euro, over 100x cheaper than a Li-Ion battery... obviously the infrastructure is not free but it seems like something worth investigating.
-
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/sand-shortage-the-world-is-running-out-of-a-crucial-commodity.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/sand-shortage-the-world-is-running-out-of-a-crucial-commodity.html)
"the world consumes roughly 40 to 50 billion tons of sand on an annual basis"
"Desert sand grains, eroded by the wind rather than water, is too smooth and rounded to bind together for construction purposes."
From this it sounds like there would be no problems with sand shortage for thermal storage purposes, as you don't need the construction quality sand.
-
There is no doubt the future rests on electricity as the primary energy source however the debate is how to produce it. For the immediate need urgency is utmost for the stability of business and life therefore a policy reversal of closing coal fired generation and mining is required to provide the fastest solution in the short term before all those in northern Europe freeze this Christmas.
Then like it or not a longer term solution will be required and most probably nuclear where wisdom would place it in lesser populated areas to have it wired around the EU just as Ruskie gas is now.
Once you have endless GWhrs the modern and more efficient heating/cooling solutions can be rolled out to further reduce the reliance on fossil fuels of any type and from any source to then also satisfy the GloBull warming believers.
Yes there is a crisis, 2 actually, but which offers the more immediate danger to life as we know it ?
Hardly rocket science from where I'm sitting. :P
-
There's thermal storage that's very cost effective for a few days. Some larger installations might be able to push it to a few weeks before insulation costs render it impractical.
There is a Finnish concept of storing heat in sand that keeps the heat for months. Currently the first product has been installed with 8 MWh capacity. It's cheap and seems to work.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520 (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520)
We have been talking about this with the colleagues (engineers and physicists) the other day.
Sand has heat capacity about 1/5 of water’s, but the temperature of the sand here is 500°C, so why not just use (salted) water then?
Also heating up to 500°C screams for resistive heating which is „inefficient”. Using water you can heat up to eg. 60°C (in summer time maybe even more) with a heat pump, and only use resistive heating in the last portion until close to boiling.
BTW, here in Hungary residential users are getting 1730m^3 gas (/ year) at a very attractive price: 0.25EUR/m^3, they say this is the grand average of residential usage. Above that consumers have to pay market(like) prices.
For fun I’ve calculated that the amount of heat attained by burning 1730m^3 gas can be stored in about 180 tons of water with dT of 80°C, 180 tons of water can be stored in a cube with edge length of 5.65m which isn’t sound that insane IMO.
-
You will run out of salt supply much faster than sand, imho.
-
Salt supply doesn't seem to be an issue for gritting the roads. The sea is full of it, anyway.
-
There's thermal storage that's very cost effective for a few days. Some larger installations might be able to push it to a few weeks before insulation costs render it impractical.
There is a Finnish concept of storing heat in sand that keeps the heat for months. Currently the first product has been installed with 8 MWh capacity. It's cheap and seems to work.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520 (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61996520)
We have been talking about this with the colleagues (engineers and physicists) the other day.
Sand has heat capacity about 1/5 of water’s, but the temperature of the sand here is 500°C, so why not just use (salted) water then?
Also heating up to 500°C screams for resistive heating which is „inefficient”. Using water you can heat up to eg. 60°C (in summer time maybe even more) with a heat pump, and only use resistive heating in the last portion until close to boiling.
BTW, here in Hungary residential users are getting 1730m^3 gas (/ year) at a very attractive price: 0.25EUR/m^3, they say this is the grand average of residential usage. Above that consumers have to pay market(like) prices.
For fun I’ve calculated that the amount of heat attained by burning 1730m^3 gas can be stored in about 180 tons of water with dT of 80°C, 180 tons of water can be stored in a cube with edge length of 5.65m which isn’t sound that insane IMO.
The common city heat distributing network works with relatively high temperatures of 110 – 150°C
That 60°C can be on a return line
You need that high temperature because old buildings are commonly designed with 75/55 radiators for heating
And need heat domestic hot water above 60°C to keep it from legionella
And of course, heat exchangers need some temperature gradient to work
-
Talk all you like about building more nuclear, filling the sahara with solar or other alternatives ,it aint gonna change anything unless its funded out the publics purse,and the energy sold to the consumers instead of via " the markets". Heres an of the wall idea for the uk goverbent ,impose a substantial export tariff on energy, either sell it at cost with an acceptable profit to the uk market,or sell it on the international markets and pay 150% export duty
-
One factor is wind and solar providers are making bank right now, at £1000/MWh for instance which is sometimes the spot price, they are basically printing money. Should we tax those guys, to provide more support for businesses and low incomes?
-
One factor is wind and solar providers are making bank right now, at £1000/MWh for instance which is sometimes the spot price, they are basically printing money. Should we tax those guys, to provide more support for businesses and low incomes?
@tom66, but didn't you already know that before sanctions, Europe purchased most of it's wind, rain and sunshine from Russia - along with all of it's geothermal and tidal energy? You're right, they are profiteering. Why is MY British electricity price going up when I am on a 100% green/zero carbon energy tariff? Answer, "it's the market." BS.
-
Well *it is* the market, there is a shortfall of gas, which means there is a shortfall of gas-generation for electricity, so prices rise to find the new point on the supply-demand curve. That is regardless of fuel type. There is limited elasticity in the market and so prices rise sharply with any fall in generation capacity.
That doesn't mean these generation companies are not profiting like mad, of course; the companies that have to buy gas to generate electricity, on the other hand, are probably not doing so well.
-
Talk all you like about building more nuclear, filling the sahara with solar or other alternatives ,it aint gonna change anything unless its funded out the publics purse,and the energy sold to the consumers instead of via " the markets". Heres an of the wall idea for the uk goverbent ,impose a substantial export tariff on energy, either sell it at cost with an acceptable profit to the uk market,or sell it on the international markets and pay 150% export duty
Stop talking sense, my mind can’t take it
-
Talk all you like about building more nuclear, filling the sahara with solar or other alternatives ,it aint gonna change anything unless its funded out the publics purse,and the energy sold to the consumers instead of via " the markets". Heres an of the wall idea for the uk goverbent ,impose a substantial export tariff on energy, either sell it at cost with an acceptable profit to the uk market,or sell it on the international markets and pay 150% export duty
Yeah, I was just seeing the other day, that Germany increased the import of Dutch gas in the past year.
I mean thanks I guess? My heating bill goes up 90% this year (even without using gas) but at least Shell and others had their extra profit selling it abroad. I also sleep well, because only the North part of the country is going to sink into the ocean because of this.
-
You will run out of salt supply much faster than sand, imho.
I think running out of salt is extremely unlikely. Something like 2/3 of the surface of the earth is covered in water, a majority of that containing lots of salt.
-
So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head? ::)
-
So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head? ::)
Not without some strong messages from citizens to Gubbermints to pull their heads outta their arse and start running the country like adults.
-
So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head? ::)
The problem is that it needs to a global reset, partial resets lead to various 'components' being in unknown states - the s/w can get very confused!
-
Is a home battery and solar system worthwhile now?
So I took the solar data from my location which I got from Solcast API (https://solcast.com/). I then fit this against a reasonably pessimistic model of a 4kWp solar system on an ideal roof orientation. The system is modelled to generate 3,970kWh per year which is about average.
The Python script takes the insolation data, calculates solar generated in half-hourly intervals, and models battery charge and discharge. If there's a shortfall in the first iteration (it appears that there is insufficient solar for that day) it adds additional charging during an off peak period (currently set to 2:30 am to 6:30 am, though it could vary.) This is a little inefficient as it should aim to top the battery up in full by the end of the off peak, probably by varying charge current.
This is a very simplistic algorithm, I haven't attempted to add in any kind of iterative solution solver to improve upon the "first iteration". I'm reasonably sure that if you know, or can estimate, the sun and cloud cover for tomorrow, and have a model of daily load and know the starting state, that it's possible to perfectly calculate charging times needed. For now, I make a very simplistic optimisation: if the projected solar energy for that day is insufficient, I charge a number of 30 minute slots in that off peak period. The reality is that there are a few days where the energy from the day before is actually enough that this charging is not necessary. But it is better to over-estimate expenditure than to under-estimate it.
The results are very interesting (to me, at least!) because they justify such a system rather easily.
Assumptions:
- Sun is similar to 2021-2022 season in any given year
- Panel efficiency 20%, panel area 20m^2
- On peak cost of 60p/kWh, off peak cost of 15p/kWh (assuming the 'Octopus Go' sweetheart rate does not remain forever at 7.5p/kWh)
- Off peak charging time available is 4 hours (charge rate ~3kW)
- Daily usage of 12kWh electricity excluding EV (charged in off peak period) and no heat pump
- Daily usage is assuming timed high loads can be shifted into off peak (e.g. dishwasher, tumble dryer) - in other words, it is the "unshiftable" demand
- Battery size 9.5kWh (GivEnergy LiFePO4) with charge efficiency 91%
- Battery does not require heater in winter (mount in insulated garage >5C year round)
- The 5kW output of the battery is enough to cover ~98% of usage and therefore I don't need to account for forced grid use here
Pre-system cost is £2,591
Post-system cost is £273
Yes, it saves nearly £2,300 per year for an ordinary user - or about the same as the price cap will rise by this year for both electricity and gas. If the system costs £10k, then it pays back within 4.5 years.
In addition to the 'savings', it contributes 911kWh of energy into the EV battery in the case when there is too much sun that day to go into the home battery. (This assumes that all of this can be used. Probably it could also be diverted into the hot water tank or something else if needed.) That's around 3,000 miles of 'emissions and cost free' driving.
If I change the parameters somewhat:
- Off peak 30p/kWh, on peak 90p/kWh
Pre-system cost is £3,917
Post-system cost is £535
Saving £3,382
Reflecting a short term high price but still a low off peak price.
A payback time of under 3 years.
However, if the off peak price rises considerably, say:
- Off peak 60p/kWh, on peak 90p/kWh
Pre-system cost is £4,040
Post-system cost is £1,036
Saving £3,004
Surprised me that the benefits are still there. It's really all down to the solar. The off-peak is nice, but the solar is *great*.
Now let's assume things return to 'normal':
- Off peak 6p/kWh, on peak 17p/kWh
Pre-system cost is £699
Post-system cost is £106
Saving £593
As can be seen, the savings vanish if the on peak price is low. The payback time is going over 15 years in this case, well beyond the warranty of the battery. Perhaps it would make more sense if there was a heat pump, with high daily consumption, though extra batteries would likely be required. The pre-cost does not include any benefit in the summer from EV charging which may change the maths a little bit, but probably not substantially.
I have attached the script in Python if anyone is interested in playing around with it. The solar data can be fetched from Solcast, you will need to sign up for a trial account and input your address to get solar data.
Now to convince the other half to spend £10k on this kit ... that may be the biggest challenge!
Attached outputs are for the 60p/15p scenario.
-
Is a home battery and solar system worthwhile now?
In the current climate certainly as it provides some insulation against all the energy supply uncertainty.
Your call as to the value you might put on that.
Edit to add
We have a solar powered data relay 'high site' installation with just three 300W panels in series for maintaining SLA's in a 24V series/parallel 4 battery installation of some 320Ahr capacity and my in just 2 1/2 years logging shows 1.5 MW of solar energy poked into the batteries......that's a lot of energy for free other than the initial investment.....ROI is entirely another matter as no other energy source was available at this remote location ~1km from the grid.
-
If electricity prices become high enough for long enough to earn back a battery in short order, I'm afraid society in its current form will collapse. So rather than a battery you should invest in emigration. I'm going down with the ship though.
-
We have a solar powered data relay 'high site' installation with just three 300W panels in series for maintaining SLA's in a 24V series/parallel 4 battery installation of some 320Ahr capacity and my in just 2 1/2 years logging shows 1.5 MW of solar energy poked into the batteries......that's a lot of energy for free other than the initial investment.....ROI is entirely another matter as no other energy source was available at this remote location ~1km from the grid.
1.5 MWh sounds like a lot of power, but it's only around $150 worth of electricity in my region. Of course as you point out, in this application there are not a lot of viable alternatives, so you'd have to compare the cost vs running 1km of cable to the grid.
-
Surprised me that the benefits are still there. It's really all down to the solar. The off-peak is nice, but the solar is *great*.
Which makes the numbers a little misleading calling it a costing of a "battery", when its mostly just the costing of solar generation. If you want to separate out battery from solar, it should compare the cost/profit of a battery to selling solar power back into the grid (including regulatory/compliance costs etc) and/or a zero export inverter (dump excess production).
-
Is a home battery and solar system worthwhile now?
The numbers look very optimistic. Try to work out how much total storage capacity the battery has and see if that covers your usage scenario. Last time I checked a Tesla powerwall is quite expensive per kWh stored (IIRC somewhere between 0.3 and 0.5 euro per kWh). The warranty of the Tesla powerwall is pretty clear on the total amount of energy it can store over it's useful life.
The Tesla powerwall has a total storage capacity of 37.8MWh with a capacity of 13.5kWh. Your proposed battery is smaller. With 12kWh a day you are at 4.6MWh per year. Extrapolating the Tesla numbers with your smaller battery gives a total storage capacity of 26.6MWh. So your battery will be worn after 5.8 years and costs about 10p per kWh.
Another issue I see is that the battery can deliver only about 4kW of power; that could be insufficient for an entire home.
-
The GivEnergy batteries are limited to 3.6kW discharge, so it may struggle to keep up with cooking loads, but the majority of loads in the household are continuous, low power (fridge, computers, lighting etc.) So I suppose if it doesn't keep up with cooking + microwave at the same time that's not ideal but not a disaster, it's grid-tie so it will cap at 3.6kW and remainder will come in as on peak energy.
Also 9.5kWh is the net capacity as the pack can be used to 100% DoD, but the sums actually still work quite well even with say 7kWh capacity. The saving is less, of course. Interestingly though there's little benefit in going much beyond 12kWh.
The thing is, you don't need to cover your whole usage if you have solar: even on a winter's day, the array might add 1-2kWh to the pack, so a 9.5kWh pack can extend to 11.5kWh of effective usage. The scenarios show on winter days there's some grid on-peak usage, but it's a tiny fraction of overall usage.
-
We have a solar powered data relay 'high site' installation with just three 300W panels in series for maintaining SLA's in a 24V series/parallel 4 battery installation of some 320Ahr capacity and my in just 2 1/2 years logging shows 1.5 MW of solar energy poked into the batteries......that's a lot of energy for free other than the initial investment.....ROI is entirely another matter as no other energy source was available at this remote location ~1km from the grid.
1.5 MWh sounds like a lot of power, but it's only around $150 worth of electricity in my region. Of course as you point out, in this application there are not a lot of viable alternatives, so you'd have to compare the cost vs running 1km of cable to the grid.
A little story if I may....
A school buddy and corporate accountant was tasked with improving a local general waste company's bottom line and as he was stationed in an office at their landfill, sealing, capping and capturing the methane for supplying 1 MW gensets was costed out in great detail and calculations for the ROI which because they need almost build a substation to which connect the the NZ national grid resulted in a zero ROI once all costs were accounted for.
Not deterred in the slightest he presented his work to their Board of Directors in person for them to finally ask why on earth should they even consider such a zero ROI venture.
This was some 20 years ago however I remember it well as the bottom line still applies and even more so today; the figures were/are calculated on today's energy prices and explain to me when your household power bill has not had an annual increase !
Several million was assigned to the project and as each year passed the forecasted ROI was exceeded.
Last I heard the were 4 or 5 one MW methane powered Cat gensets dealing to the landfill methane emissions and as luck would have it GloBull warming legislation came along for the power gen installation to also earn them carbon credits ! :scared:
-
So called climate crisis caused by decades of UK, Germany, EU and US politique against nuclear, oli, frackin, pipelines, refinerys.
That madness opened the door to Putin's stranglehold on Western énergie supply.
The instant solution.... go off grid, get your own solar, backup generator, flee the extreme left controlled cities and states.
With Putin's energy war, our governments are surrendering.
j
PS notice that the most extreme climate nuts like AOL or John Kerry, seem to have no problem with private jets, limousines,....
Enjoy,
Jon
-
With Putin's energy war, our governments are surrendering.
:-DD
They did that back in February !
-
Is a home battery and solar system worthwhile now?
To give you a data point: I spent 5KEUR on my solar system, got back about 800EUR tax, with about 700EUR/year expected revenue. This would mean a flat ROI of 6 years.
The price of electricity went up by 80% in my case, so the system would generate about 1250 EUR/year, and have a ROI of 3 year 6 months.
Also, redelivery rate went from something 9 cents/kWh to 30 cents. I regret not getting the biggest system that would fit on my roof now, because even just selling electricity at those prices, and using nothing has a ROI of ~5 years insted of 15.
There is still ~9 cents/kWh difference between sold and bought energy, so I'm not sure if a battery system would be worth it. Since we have net metering here, it's not. Let's say it's not.
Marco Reps had this 5kWh LiFEPo battery in his last video for 2000 EUR, which I noted down to be great price/performance at the time. And he is good, watch his videos. That cycled 1000 times would be only worth 450 EUR of difference in electricity price. Or ROI with 4400 cycles, which is questionable, and too long.
-
Here, the difference between buy and sell is about 50%.
A static price of 7.5p/kWh using the 'SEG' tariff, well below the import cost, or a variable price of between 20-50p/kWh using 'Agile Outgoing'. Some older systems get very good feed-in tariff rates but those aren't available any more.
So there is some benefit if you can arbitrage on the variable pricing too, but yes the lifespan of the battery must be accounted for as this will essentially add to the per kWh. A good LiFePO4 pack should do 2000 cycles to 80% capacity, but that assumes 100% DoD, which would only apply in winter. In summer the battery might only vary by 30-40% DoD.
What's clear to me is that while there isn't a guarantee that these systems will pay off their cost I would say it is a greater than 80% probability. The near-term forecast for gas is not great. The earliest the lost gas from Russia might be replaced by is 2026, and still then that is somewhat optimistic. There is some benefit in getting old nuke plants going and maybe even using coal temporarily, but if the plants are mothballed it could take years to come online.
I really do think Germany and the EU have dropped the ball here. I would love to see what the planning for lost Russian gas was, because it looked like it was "not planned"!
I have wondered how worthwhile building a battery bank is, versus buying one. A 9.5kWh system without solar is £6k incl VAT. I added up the cost of batteries and it's close to £3k so maybe cheaper but with no warranty and all the system design/test/build done by myself, it may come close to that cost. Also if it's grid tied then there are compliance issues with the DNO (network operator).
edit: typo
-
I really do think Germany and the EU have dropped the ball here. I would love to see what the planning for lost Russian gas was, because it looked like it was "not planned"!
It is mostly Germany that is in a pickle. For some reason they find that using natural gas is the best solution to reduce CO2 emissions :-// Maybe they got influenced by a lobby originating from Russia or so. And it is not like they where not warned; the US protested heavily against the second pipeline including putting sanctions into place. Then again, who took anything coming from the Trump administration serious?
I have wondered how worthwhile building a battery bank is, worth buying one. A 9.5kWh system without solar is £6k incl VAT.
I strongly recommend against that. Making a good, reliable battery pack takes a lot of effort. I have been involved with that myself in the startup phase of a battery manufacturer. Nowadays they have a large team of engineers. Battery manufacturers typically test & match cells before putting them into a battery. Also the BMS needs to have all kinds of safety features to protect the cells. Last but not least, the battery pack is also certified for safety. If your home-brew battery pack catches fire, the insurance will not cover the damages. Also think about what happens if you sell the house. A home-brew battery will be frowned upon and a smart buyer won't accept it. All in all it is not worth the trouble.
-
I strongly recommend against that. Making a good, reliable battery pack takes a lot of effort. I have been involved with that myself in the startup phase of a battery manufacturer. Nowadays they have a large team of engineers. Battery manufacturers typically test & match cells before putting them into a battery. Also the BMS needs to have all kinds of safety features to protect the cells. Last but not least, the battery pack is also certified for safety. If your home-brew battery pack catches fire, the insurance will not cover the damages. Also think about what happens if you sell the house. A home-brew battery will be frowned upon and a smart buyer won't accept it. All in all it is not worth the trouble.
Yeah, absolutely, that's my thought pattern too. While I'd only use LiFePO4 (I am absolutely not the guy to take apart thousands of laptop batteries to harvest 18650s, I think those people are god-damn insane) I still can imagine it would be rather expensive and difficult even with all off-the-shelf bits. I'd never have the willingness to put it near my house, so it'd go on the outbuilding instead, which would mean it's subject to weather, whereas a proper system could be built in the house. Altogether, it does look a lot cheaper to do it professionally, which is odd, but I don't mind!
-
The reason the battery manufacturer I was involved in is succesful is because the Chinese don't manage to make reliable battery packs using the off-the-shelve bits. 8) Their business model is simple: make better battery packs compared to what you can buy in China.
-
If your home-brew battery pack catches fire, the insurance will not cover the damages.
You could put it in a shed or outdoor enclosure a distance from the house. If it catches fire, no big loss other than the battery itself. Or put it in the garage and install fire sprinklers.
Also think about what happens if you sell the house. A home-brew battery will be frowned upon and a smart buyer won't accept it.
Take it with you or sell it separately.
-
Fire sprinklers against a Li-Ion battery fire is like trying to put out the Hindenberg with buckets and sand. That said, putting it on an outbuilding is not too bad, provided you are OK with the cost of losing that building if all goes wrong.
If you want to see some horror stories look at the DIY Powerwall groups on Facebook et al.
-
Fire sprinklers against a Li-Ion battery fire is like trying to put out the Hindenberg with buckets and sand. That said, putting it on an outbuilding is not too bad, provided you are OK with the cost of losing that building if all goes wrong.
Yup. At some point I visited a company that does battery certifications. They put cheap cabins outside for any battery testing work. They learned that the hard way after a fire which caused a lot of damage to their main building.
-
Fire sprinklers against a Li-Ion battery fire is like trying to put out the Hindenberg with buckets and sand. That said, putting it on an outbuilding is not too bad, provided you are OK with the cost of losing that building if all goes wrong.
The intent of the fire sprinklers is to prevent the building itself from catching fire. And the cost of a rainproof box isn't much.
Or go for a more stable chemistry like LiFePO4 or the various chemistries used in EV batteries.
-
That seems to be the issue. DIY LiFePO4 is almost as expensive as professional LiFePO4. If you want a cheap home made power-wall you need to do it with Li-Ion from recycled batteries for the cost to make sense, but now you've basically attached firecrackers to your home/outbuilding/etc. So you'd better be OK with that risk. And it's not just rainproofing, it's temperature. Most Li-Ion cells can't be reliably charged below 0C, LiFePO4 can be but efficiency and charge rate reduces so really best to have somewhere that can benefit from space heating (even if it's just keeping the room above 5C or so)
-
That seems to be the issue. DIY LiFePO4 is almost as expensive as professional LiFePO4.
EV battery modules are cheap and considerably safer than the random 18650s used in cheap consumer products.
https://batteryhookup.com/products/lg-36v-7-9kwh-lithium-ion-ev-module
-
Welding up a corten steel enclosure and putting some insulation on the inside plus some automatic fans/heaters is cheap if your time is free. For a hobbyist with a large property, DIY'ing it doesn't seem risky to me.
-
Welding up a corten steel enclosure and putting some insulation on the inside plus some automatic fans/heaters is cheap if your time is free. For a hobbyist with a large property, DIY'ing it doesn't seem risky to me.
Steel enclosure with flammable content = big bomb Remember that a battery doesn't need oxigen to release it's energy. Grid storage batteries are specifically designed to spit the flames out of the top instead of to the sides.
-
Steel enclosure with flammable content = big bomb Remember that a battery doesn't need oxigen to release it's energy. Grid storage batteries are specifically designed to spit the flames out of the top instead of to the sides.
Mmm...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qzt9RZ0FQyM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qzt9RZ0FQyM)
And then you see people build these...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26NeiN0ZoFY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26NeiN0ZoFY)
A single cell that's at end of life suddenly decides to go short. No cell level fusing, no intumescent coating, no cooling or heating, and all cells are different. It doesn't take much to guess what's going to happen with these packs.
It is a recipe for disaster. Containing a fire like that is near impossible. Only solution is to get the fire brigade in and cool it down. So not so much of a problem if it is far away from anything valuable, but NO WAY would it go anywhere on or near my home.
-
Steel enclosure with flammable content = big bomb
You don't make it tight or hermetic.
Grid storage batteries are specifically designed to spit the flames out of the top
It doesn't take rocket science to accomplish that. Put on a wooden lid, that's where the flames will go too with a DIY steel enclosure. Then you can fill it with water from a distance.
As I said, with a large property it's not a problem, just put it away from anything flammable.
-
So your battery shack catches fire. The batteries are destroyed and the contents are spilled. How much for the toxic waste cleanup?
Are you legally responsible for the pollution, or will John Kerry help you out?
-
What the point from heat pumps in current situation when they are powered by electricity?
If you say "powered by X", how am I supposed to interpret this? I see no other way than: "all of the output power comes from X", or maybe "most of the output power comes from X". If this is what you mean, then sorry, you are completely wrong.
Heatpumps are not "powered by electricity", this is a total misunderstanding of what heatpumps do. They NEED some electricity, but that's a different thing.
Look at the energy flow. Energy output produced by a heatpump is originally solar energy, seasonally stored in the heat capacity of the planet (soil + atmosphere). So heatpump-powered house is heated BY SOLAR. Not "by electricity".
Now sure, PART of that output energy is from electricity, no way around that. But the key is, this part is small, especially in Middle European conditions.
So by installing a heatpump, you reduce your fossil fuel consumption to maybe one third, because you add a new renewable energy harvester.
Sure, somewhere you might have electricity crisis but no gas crisis. In such case, heat pump might not instantly work out. It's still the right thing to do.
But now Europe is facing shortage of both electricity and natural gas, so heatpump will be an obvious choice, because it reduces energy consumption so significantly.
It's really fundamentally very close to EV vs. gasoline car. EV will put more burden on the grid, but in the big picture still the right thing to do because energy consumption is reduced to 1/4th.
The magic of heatpump is in two things:
1) affordable price
2) built-in seasonal storage
Compare to PV. Say you have to pay 5000€ to get a 3000-4000kWh/year PV installation. And it produces very little during the coldest 2-3 months.
A heatpump? You get one (typical air source unit) installed for maybe 1500€. It will extract the same 3000-4000kWh/year of solar energy, and even better, it can still extract it during the coldest, darkest months. Curve of production capability vs. demand is not perfect, but better than PV. Price per harvested energy is a lot better than PV.
So if you have to choose between PV and heatpumps, choose heatpumps first. PV is of course great, too.
Always look at energy first. Everything else is details.
-
Air-water heat pumps usually come with a large heating element as back-up in case the outside air temperature is too low. For a classic single-family home the heating element is about 10kW. Based on where you live you'll need the heating element for some days in the winter. Another thing to know is that heat pumps can be switched remotely in Germany (via a dedicated power meter) to prevent grid overloads.
-
The earliest the lost gas from Russia might be replaced by is 2026, and still then that is somewhat optimistic.
If you assume that Russia will not be more than Moscow and some area around it, and we would be buying the gas from the newly formed countries.
Steel enclosure with flammable content = big bomb
You don't make it tight or hermetic.
Grid storage batteries are specifically designed to spit the flames out of the top
It doesn't take rocket science to accomplish that. Put on a wooden lid, that's where the flames will go too with a DIY steel enclosure. Then you can fill it with water from a distance.
As I said, with a large property it's not a problem, just put it away from anything flammable.
If you ever saw a battery catch on fire, you will understand why it's a bad idea to play around with them.
A heatpump? You get one (typical air source unit) installed for maybe 1500€. It will extract the same 3000-4000kWh/year of solar energy, and even better, it can still extract it during the coldest, darkest months. Curve of production capability vs. demand is not perfect, but better than PV. Price per harvested energy is a lot better than PV.
I guess you are talking about air to air heatpumps. Air to water is closer to 5-6000 EUR, and your home heating system must be compatible with low temperature radiators. Which mine is not.
Plus I never saw one that would be integrated with district heating. Must be rocket science or something. If someone knows one, please post it I'm interested.
-
Plus I never saw one that would be integrated with district heating. Must be rocket science or something. If someone knows one, please post it I'm interested.
That is quite easy. Just add a 3 way valve that chooses the incoming water from the heatpump (which then forms a local loop) or from the district heating. You can automate this with an outdoor temperature sensor from which the 3 way valve and heatpump are controlled.
-
Plus I never saw one that would be integrated with district heating. Must be rocket science or something. If someone knows one, please post it I'm interested.
That is quite easy. Just add a 3 way valve that chooses the incoming water from the heatpump (which then forms a local loop) or from the district heating. You can automate this with an outdoor temperature sensor from which the 3 way valve and heatpump are controlled.
I'm pretty sure this would be illegal.
-
Plus I never saw one that would be integrated with district heating. Must be rocket science or something. If someone knows one, please post it I'm interested.
That is quite easy. Just add a 3 way valve that chooses the incoming water from the heatpump (which then forms a local loop) or from the district heating. You can automate this with an outdoor temperature sensor from which the 3 way valve and heatpump are controlled.
I'm pretty sure this would be illegal.
No. Why would that be? I have district heating as well and after the meter, the installation is mine to do with as I please for as long as I pay for the energy I used from the district heating.
-
So we are suffering for nothing :palm:.
I prefer to suffer in solidarity with Ukraine!
If I'm going to suffer for some purpose, at least I expect some result from it. I don't see and don't expect any as far as things are going.
Say you're willingly and sincerely going to suffer in solidarity with Ukraine, next questions are ..
- For how long ? As Belgium's PM said just now that EU countries will be difficult for 5 to 10 years ! :o
- For how low you're willing to go on your living quality compared to current one, for example degraded into poverty maybe ?
This 10 minutes commentary summed up the current situation (as fact) that pretty darn well, and also with a prediction what to come. (PS : This duo's videos predictions are pretty sharp and on spot since last two years on geopolitics, especially in Europe).
Highly recommended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6Oa6fqnGTA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6Oa6fqnGTA)
-
I can't see any reason heating district heated water would be illegal. Presumably you have a heatmeter and are billed on the energy consumed. The only concern would be if the return flow was hotter than the inward flow, that might break something.
-
So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head? ::)
Shush , not so loud, as they dont want to
(https://feeltheindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Gandhi-three-monkeys1.jpg)
-
I can't see any reason heating district heated water would be illegal. Presumably you have a heatmeter and are billed on the energy consumed. The only concern would be if the return flow was hotter than the inward flow, that might break something.
No. District heating is a ring system where hot water keeps flowing around to make sure there is always hot water at every point. If you open up the return, you'll notice the water is hot. After doing repairs / replacements I always fill the system back up by opening the return in order not to get billed for energy I'm not actually using. 8)
The trick with adding your own source is that you keep the return open so your system stays pressurised but you add the option for a local loop or the long loop. In local loop mode, there is no water flow coming from or to the district heating system. Your own source would need a pump though to keep the local loop going.
-
No. District heating is a ring system where hot water keeps flowing around to make sure there is always hot water at every point. If you open up the return, you'll notice the water is hot.
I assume it measures flow and exit temperature (probably input and output flow, to detect leaks). You get charged by the Joule and just measuring flow and assuming the exit temperature is near the input temperature would be a dangerous assumption to make, you would pay less for the same energy with more efficient radiators.
PS. after looking it up, it does measure input and exit temperature but only input flow. Enough to determine energy extraction.
-
No. District heating is a ring system where hot water keeps flowing around to make sure there is always hot water at every point. If you open up the return, you'll notice the water is hot.
I assume it measures flow and exit temperature (probably input and output flow, to detect leaks). You get charged by the Joule and just measuring flow and assuming the exit temperature is near the input temperature would be a dangerous assumption to make, you would pay less for the same energy with more efficient radiators.
The meter that is installed in my house, measures flow and temperature difference between incoming and outgoing water. So it measures the energy (in Joule) that is being used by me.
-
Right: but no free energy, if you pull 1/4 the energy by heating up the inward flow, passing through rads and then back out to the district system then you haven't stolen any energy, you'll get billed correctly for 1/4 less heat. Unless something fundamental is wrong with thermodynamics!
-
I assume it measures flow and exit temperature (probably input and output flow, to detect leaks). You get charged by the Joule and just measuring flow and assuming the exit temperature is near the input temperature would be a dangerous assumption to make, you would pay less for the same energy with more efficient radiators.
PS. after looking it up, it does measure input and exit temperature but only input flow. Enough to determine energy extraction.
I would be surprised if a modern meter doesn't sanity check the return flow, as described it would be possible to cheat the system by returning some water with only a small amount of heat extracted and dumping the rest down the drain after extracting a lot more heat.
-
I assume it measures flow and exit temperature (probably input and output flow, to detect leaks). You get charged by the Joule and just measuring flow and assuming the exit temperature is near the input temperature would be a dangerous assumption to make, you would pay less for the same energy with more efficient radiators.
PS. after looking it up, it does measure input and exit temperature but only input flow. Enough to determine energy extraction.
I would be surprised if a modern meter doesn't sanity check the return flow, as described it would be possible to cheat the system by returning some water with only a small amount of heat extracted and dumping the rest down the drain after extracting a lot more heat.
Nope. Only the inward flow is measured. But these systems are divided into smaller sections that serve a limited number of homes. Excessive water leaks are detected and the system shuts down for the section with a leak.
-
I guess you are talking about air to air heatpumps. Air to water is closer to 5-6000 EUR, and your home heating system must be compatible with low temperature radiators. Which mine is not.
Again: if air-to-water does not work for you, get air-to-air units. They maintain maximum possible COP without the compromise of having to produce too high output temperature, and can be retrofitted to nearly any house. Price should be no problem, good units start from 500-600 EUR and installation is a two-hour job, price of install is of course defined by the mafia and varies from 100EUR to maybe 1000EUR depending on where you live. It is not a total and complete solution, but it isn't supposed to be - just like you install PV regardless of it being unable to supply all your electricity.
Air to air heatpump is the cheapest and simplest way (per kWh produced) to tap into our unlimited renewable thermal energy resource (the planet itself).
-
Another thing to know is that heat pumps can be switched remotely in Germany (via a dedicated power meter) to prevent grid overloads.
Could you provide some reference? What is the name of such service?
I did hear about off-peak resistive heating based on tariffs where the ON/OFF was driven by distribution company (based on time or remotely). However, a user could always override that, just paying higher tariff price. While your post suggests this is another application - stabilization of the grid where in some situations users are prevented from heating their houses.
-
You can install air to air heatpumps yourself in the UK if they use propane, which some systems use although they seem to be uncommon now.
Anything using fluorinated gases requires training, which is about £1,000 to do, but probably cheaper than paying an air con tech. But I can't bemoan anyone wanting to charge for their labour!
-
You can install air to air heatpumps yourself in the UK if they use propane, which some systems use although they seem to be uncommon now.
Anything using fluorinated gases requires training, which is about £1,000 to do, but probably cheaper than paying an air con tech.
You can typically find an airco technician who wants to check & fill your system for a friendly price. But nowadays a lot of systems come prefilled. With some research, the right tools (all available from Aliexpress) and pre-made pipes (makes the flares correctly is a specialist job), it is very possible to install an airco yourself. I did that last year.
-
Another thing to know is that heat pumps can be switched remotely in Germany (via a dedicated power meter) to prevent grid overloads.
Could you provide some reference? What is the name of such service?
I did hear about off-peak resistive heating based on tariffs where the ON/OFF was driven by distribution company (based on time or remotely). However, a user could always override that, just paying higher tariff price. While your post suggests this is another application - stabilization of the grid where in some situations users are prevented from heating their houses.
The term for this is 'EVU-Sperre' (simply search for this term, the corresponding law is ENWG). The electricity suppliers offer special tariffs for heat pumps which are a few cents lower (about 10ct lower, normal tariff is 30+ct). They will install a dedicated power meter for the heat pump which can be switched remotely. The drawback is that the electricity suppliers usually switch off the power for the heat pumps at peak times. But there are some rules they have to follow. For example, they can't switch off the heat pump for longer than two hours at a time. If you have only a heat pump for heating the house the maximum power-off time is 6h per day. So most electricity suppliers choose morning, noon and evening (3 * 2h). If you're happy to pay the normal power tariff you can run your heat pump without enforced breaks.
-
You can install air to air heatpumps yourself in the UK if they use propane, which some systems use although they seem to be uncommon now.
Anything using fluorinated gases requires training, which is about £1,000 to do, but probably cheaper than paying an air con tech.
You can typically find an airco technician who wants to check & fill your system for a friendly price. But nowadays a lot of systems come prefilled. With some research, the right tools (all available from Aliexpress) and pre-made pipes (makes the flares correctly is a specialist job), it is very possible to install an airco yourself. I did that last year.
Yes, but unfortunately even pre-filled systems it's illegal to do so, in the UK at least.
Now, whether you get, umm, any recourse for such actions is probably unlikely.
-
The term for this is 'EVU-Sperre' (simply search for this term, the corresponding law is ENWG). The electricity suppliers offer special tariffs for heat pumps which are a few cents lower (about 10ct lower, normal tariff is 30+ct). They will install a dedicated power meter for the heat pump which can be switched remotely. The drawback is that the electricity suppliers usually switch off the power for the heat pumps at peak times. But there are some rules they have to follow. For example, they can't switch off the heat pump for longer than two hours at a time. If you have only a heat pump for heating the house the maximum power-off time is 6h per day. So most electricity suppliers choose morning, noon and evening (3 * 2h). If you're happy to pay the normal power tariff you can run your heat pump without enforced breaks.
Wouldn't it make more sense to have all electricity switch between the discounted and full rate with smart switches to disable devices at peak time? In that case, the heat pump could be required to have a smart switch and additional smart switches can be installed on other devices as the customer wishes.
-
I guess you are talking about air to air heatpumps. Air to water is closer to 5-6000 EUR, and your home heating system must be compatible with low temperature radiators. Which mine is not.
I'm considering getting an air to water system with 3 FCUs for the living room and bed rooms, when the normal radiators can't put enough heat in the air, turn on the FCUs. In summer, decouple the radiator circuit and use the FCUs for cooling. Maybe add some booster fans in the normal radiators too.
Just need to find a distributor which doesn't try to sell FCUs for over two times the cost in Italy.
Assuming civil society is still functional next year of course.
-
If you still have radiators, consider swapping these for underfloor heating. It is a lot of work but underfloor heating is soooo much nicer compared to radiators that you forget about that the instant you feel the improved comfort of underfloor heating.
-
The term for this is 'EVU-Sperre'
Energieversorgungsunternehmen.
What you describe is off-peak tariff. Comes in different flavors. Depending on specific country it can have local names like Economy 7 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_7)(UK) or G12(PL). This is 60+ years old idea [1] so I am trying to understand the EVU-Sperre in the context of the above generic concept where price of the commodity varies in time and you decide whether you buy or not.
I did search for EVU-Sperre and googletranslated a random (https://heizung-de.translate.goog/waermepumpe/wissen/sperrzeit-der-waermepumpe-das-ist-zu-beachten/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)article about it but I have no clue why does a distributor connect single load into this meter. Seems that they can discourage or even prevent the pump (and only pump) to turn on, even when it is cold in the house. Mind conceptually this is no different than setting two tariffs, one for €0.2/kWh and the other one for €2000/kWh so that no one sane is going to turn the pump on then, no matter how cold it is. This EVU-Sperre seems irrational at first glance, it over-complicates a simple and old idea. In case people need more heat (super cold winter, blackout, whatever), they are going to be forced to turn the resistive heating COP=1 on (because it costs €0.3/kWh whole day). Additionally you have two sets of wirings in the house with different price per kWh. One that is 0.2€ (for 18h/day) and the other one that is €0.3 (24h/day). :palm:
Where is the trick? Seems like a setback of 60yo idea.
[1] Taschenbuch für Heizung und Klimatechnik
-
Wouldn't it make more sense to have all electricity switch between the discounted and full rate with smart switches to disable devices at peak time? In that case, the heat pump could be required to have a smart switch and additional smart switches can be installed on other devices as the customer wishes.
That's the idea of smart meters, i.e. telling household appliances and other loads to turn on when power is less expensive. AFAIK, neither do we have the tariffs for this yet, nor a standardized remote control protocol for loads. There are a few appliances supporting some remote control protocol, but it's still very niche.
-
Wouldn't it make more sense to have all electricity switch between the discounted and full rate with smart switches to disable devices at peak time? In that case, the heat pump could be required to have a smart switch and additional smart switches can be installed on other devices as the customer wishes.
That's the idea of smart meters, i.e. telling household appliances and other loads to turn on when power is less expensive. AFAIK, neither do we have the tariffs for this yet, nor a standardized remote control protocol for loads. There are a few appliances supporting some remote control protocol, but it's still very niche.
That is not true. Over here quite a low of people used to have electric water heaters (big drums with water) that where switched on during the night when electricity is cheaper and deliver hot water during the day. The remote control was done through modulating a signal on top of the 50Hz by the power company. This technology is from the 1960's or so. Nowadays it is no longer supported by most of the electricity suppliers because the use of these boilers has diminished. But nevertheless: the technology exists for a long time. AFAIK modulating a tone onto mains is or has been used for street lights as well.
-
Where is the trick? Seems like a setback of 60yo idea.
It seems to be a transitional solution until smart meters can control loads smartly. At the moment they are just expensive power meters which can phone home.
-
That is not true. Over here quite a low of people used to have electric water heaters (big drums with water) that where switched on during the night when electricity is cheaper and deliver hot water during the day. The remote control was done through modulating a signal on top of the 50Hz by the power company. This technology is from the 1960's or so. Nowadays it is no longer supported by most of the electricity suppliers because the use of these boilers has diminished. But nevertheless: the technology exists for a long time. AFAIK modulating a tone onto mains is or has been used for street lights as well.
We have this too for night storage heaters. However, this stuff is phased out and we're pushed to go for heat pumps. BTW, I was talking about controlling multiple loads individually.
-
.. However, gas prices were rising long before Russia decided to invade..
The gas/energy prices rose before the war, and they were rising because the insiders knew well since summer/autumn 2021 the war will start soon an it is inevitable. This war has been in preparation since January 1st 2000 and, btw., it was founded by the EU by its ~1billion Euro per day payments for the energy imports from those inviders, imho..
-
UK committing financial and industrial suicide, same as Germany is doing (DeutcheBank ie Rottenchilds, in a recent article suggest German citizens use firewood to heat homes) so enjoy your Great Reset and good riddance to you both!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77wokwfoCm0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77wokwfoCm0)
-
That's the idea of smart meters, i.e. telling household appliances and other loads to turn on when power is less expensive.
This is how off-peak tariff worked for the last 60 years, there is no smartness in it. Some appliances are connected to dedicated circuit that powers up when the counter starts counting off-peak. Overrideable.
BTW, I was talking about controlling multiple loads individually.
Ok, now it makes sense, EVU-Sperre controls one load individually. A heat pump.
But the way they do it is not smart (https://www-bosch--thermotechnology-com.translate.goog/de/de/wohngebaeude/wissen/heizungsratgeber/waermepumpe/evu-sperre/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) at all. I am getting old.
If neither a buffer tank nor underfloor heating can be used, an electric heating element can provide the required heat during off-times. However, this requires significantly more electricity than a heat pump and also draws electricity at the regular price.
Anyway, thanks, it was nice to know such "transitional solution", I would have never thought about a tariff where a user looses the right to control when to turn on an appliance with COP=3 and is left with the only choice to turn on an appliance with COP=1 (and three times the power)..
-
So, not to derail this discussion excessively, but isn't this Great Reset finally rearing its ugly head? ::)
Nah, this is just an energy crisis, which should hopefully give renewable energy a good boost. The Great Reset will happen when crops fail on a global scale year after year due to climate change, of which we are only just beginning to see the milder effects now. But fear not, impending disaster is more or less locked in and the Great Reset will arrive.
-
That is not true. Over here quite a low of people used to have electric water heaters (big drums with water) that where switched on during the night when electricity is cheaper and deliver hot water during the day. The remote control was done through modulating a signal on top of the 50Hz by the power company. This technology is from the 1960's or so. Nowadays it is no longer supported by most of the electricity suppliers because the use of these boilers has diminished. But nevertheless: the technology exists for a long time. AFAIK modulating a tone onto mains is or has been used for street lights as well.
We have this too for night storage heaters. However, this stuff is phased out and we're pushed to go for heat pumps. BTW, I was talking about controlling multiple loads individually.
Aha. The latter wasn't clear to me. IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions. Where I live, running the washing machine during the night is not done due to the noise.
-
My heat pump has a "smart" function so it is able to monitor prices and run when it's cheapest, but I haven't used it because we have never had really affordable night tariffs here. Now if batteries were cheaper...
-
IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions.
If energy supply is to get as tight as predicted for the European winter there may be no other options as a result of the short lead time.
If you get the warm wet winter we have as a result of the stratosphere contamination from the Tonga eruption Europe may have dodged that bullet, at least for this winter but even another year isn't time enough to reduce energy usage enough for prices to stabilize and start a move to more efficient devices.
Your only hope is for adults to start taking control and making decisions with vision.
-
I've already bought a UPS. The government says there won't be blackouts and shortages of electricity due to the gas crisis -- so maybe I should have bought three.
-
The whole Nord Stream 2 sanctions ban is really shooting Germany in the foot right now. They should reverse themselves and approve that pipeline so that Russia can't use Nord Stream 1 maintenance issues as an excuse when there's a complete working parallel pipeline just sitting there. Russia can still do what it wants, of course, but it's calling their bluff on the reasons.
-
I don't see the point in opening NS2.
Russia will use whatever excuse they want. They could say "their FUK-U unit is faulty" and therefore they can't pump more than 15%. They're actively refusing delivery of turbines, claiming that they are blocked by sanctions. They'll find an excuse. Opening NS2 gives them more leverage if anything.
-
IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions.
If energy supply is to get as tight as predicted for the European winter there may be no other options as a result of the short lead time.
If you get the warm wet winter we have as a result of the stratosphere contamination from the Tonga eruption Europe may have dodged that bullet, at least for this winter but even another year isn't time enough to reduce energy usage enough for prices to stabilize and start a move to more efficient devices.
Your only hope is for adults to start taking control and making decisions with vision.
There are a whole bunch of coal and nuclear plants sitting idle or near idle that are or can be fired up more or again. Also, the Netherland is sitting on a crapload of gas (IOW: the second largest gas field ever discovered). A large part of the shortage is artificial.
-
IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions.
If energy supply is to get as tight as predicted for the European winter there may be no other options as a result of the short lead time.
If you get the warm wet winter we have as a result of the stratosphere contamination from the Tonga eruption Europe may have dodged that bullet, at least for this winter but even another year isn't time enough to reduce energy usage enough for prices to stabilize and start a move to more efficient devices.
Your only hope is for adults to start taking control and making decisions with vision.
There are a whole bunch of coal and nuclear plants sitting idle or near idle that are or can be fired up more or again.
afaiu half the French nuclear plants are idle at the moment because there is not enough water for cooling
-
IMHO controlling several loads from the side of the grid is something people will simply not accept. It takes away too much freedom / adds too much hassle. Also take into account the diversity of living conditions.
If energy supply is to get as tight as predicted for the European winter there may be no other options as a result of the short lead time.
If you get the warm wet winter we have as a result of the stratosphere contamination from the Tonga eruption Europe may have dodged that bullet, at least for this winter but even another year isn't time enough to reduce energy usage enough for prices to stabilize and start a move to more efficient devices.
Your only hope is for adults to start taking control and making decisions with vision.
There are a whole bunch of coal and nuclear plants sitting idle or near idle that are or can be fired up more or again. Also, the Netherland is sitting on a crapload of gas (IOW: the second largest gas field ever discovered). A large part of the shortage is artificial.
That's nice, all that's needed now is decisions to be made by adults.
-
Russia will use whatever excuse they want.
Up to a point, the the EU doesn't want to get cut off, but Russia doesn't want to get secondary sanctioned by Biden either. It's a dance.
-
Yes, I suppose it is an interesting question. Who blinks first?
- EU backs down and reduces sanctions and allows Russian gas back in... How much does it take for Putin to turn the taps on? I would imagine a substantial withdrawal of EU support to Ukraine, and nearly all sanctions being lifted, is the price.
- Or Russia decides to withdraw from Ukraine as they are not achieving their aims (e.g. losing Kherson could really hit morale; a strike to the Crimean bridge may further dent it.) This however puts Putin's position in serious jeopardy so I expect would only happen if there was mass rebellion in the Russian state services (FSB, GRU) which seems... unlikely.
Already I am hearing comments from people in the EU that they don't believe the pain of a cold winter/economic slump is worth it for Ukraine. But, even if the EU withdraws aid, I expect UK and USA will continue significant aid, and so far it has been the US who have been the most useful in the war.
I could see EU compromising and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine. Not a defeat for either side but implicitly acknowledging the dependence of Russian gas for the EU. Hopefully in the meantime they continue with their degasification project and remove this influence altogether, but somehow I doubt it will be all that quick.
-
Meanwhile in Poland people are waiting for days in queue for coal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHn6vJ3PoyE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHn6vJ3PoyE)
... according to Google in German.
(https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/google%20searchs%20firewood_0.jpg?itok=JrX3_3xI)
-
But fear not, impending disaster is more or less locked in and the Great Reset will arrive.
That's the thing I wonder about actually. As I recall, even the most optimistic data says that we are essentially screwed, the time to prevent global climate change was 100+ years ago, it's too late now to do anything about it. So is there any point in putting great effort into doing so? Or would we be better served by working on ways to mitigate the effects?
-
You can install air to air heatpumps yourself in the UK if they use propane, which some systems use although they seem to be uncommon now.
Anything using fluorinated gases requires training, which is about £1,000 to do, but probably cheaper than paying an air con tech. But I can't bemoan anyone wanting to charge for their labour!
About 18 years ago I was able to take a course online and pay a small fee, I think it was around $35 to get licensed. As it turned out, nobody has ever actually asked to see my license, even the refrigerant dealers that say you need one for them to sell you the stuff. Can you not buy the equipment online there?
-
I could see EU compromising and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine. Not a defeat for either side but implicitly acknowledging the dependence of Russian gas for the EU. Hopefully in the meantime they continue with their degasification project and remove this influence altogether, but somehow I doubt it will be all that quick.
And there was a toilet paper shortage not that long ago, artificially created, and done by mass hysteria.
The russians have a name for these people, it's UI or useful idiots.
We are prepared, the gas storage in Germany is 80% full, and it's enough for months. The only loosing method for us is to change policies. Otherwise let the Ukranians and Lockheed Martin and the others take care of the situation.
I'm not sure about the UK though. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.
-
Meanwhile in Finland there are no gas or coal heated houses. There are about half a million heated with electricity (which is not good). Only about 130 000-150 000 oil heated houses left and they are replaced rapidly with heat pumps. According to statistics, in the first half of 2022, heat pump sales grew 105% and heat pumps are now used for 20% of all heating in the country (and increasing). Ground source heat pumps in MW size are also installed in large buildings, like apartment houses, service buildings and for district heating. Many apartment houses also install exhaust air heat pumps, which can save up to 50% of heating costs.
Last year it was calculated that in 2030, the amount of heat pumps will have doubled and will be used for 30% of heating in Finland. This number will most likely be much larger, due to the rapid increase the first half of 2022 (and if the trend continues).
-
My heat pump has a "smart" function so it is able to monitor prices and run when it's cheapest, but I haven't used it because we have never had really affordable night tariffs here. Now if batteries were cheaper...
Another smart function is to adapt the heat pump's power usage to what the PV system on the roof generates.
-
I could see EU compromising and trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine. Not a defeat for either side but implicitly acknowledging the dependence of Russian gas for the EU. Hopefully in the meantime they continue with their degasification project and remove this influence altogether, but somehow I doubt it will be all that quick.
And there was a toilet paper shortage not that long ago, artificially created, and done by mass hysteria.
The russians have a name for these people, it's UI or useful idiots.
We are prepared, the gas storage in Germany is 80% full, and it's enough for months. The only loosing method for us is to change policies. Otherwise let the Ukranians and Lockheed Martin and the others take care of the situation.
I'm not sure about the UK though. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.
afaiu UK screwed themselves by only having gas storage for a few (winter) days
-
Meanwhile in Finland there are no gas or coal heated houses. There are about half a million heated with electricity (which is not good). Only about 130 000-150 000 oil heated houses left and they are replaced rapidly with heat pumps. According to statistics, in the first half of 2022, heat pump sales grew 105% and heat pumps are now used for 20% of all heating in the country (and increasing). Ground source heat pumps in MW size are also installed in large buildings, like apartment houses, service buildings and for district heating. Many apartment houses also install exhaust air heat pumps, which can save up to 50% of heating costs.
Last year it was calculated that in 2030, the amount of heat pumps will have doubled and will be used for 30% of heating in Finland. This number will most likely be much larger, due to the rapid increase the first half of 2022 (and if the trend continues).
Well here they are making a policy to only be able to buy heat pumps instead of gas boilers from 2026. Which of course had an immediate political backlash from everyone, because the system is more expensive. Even though the plan is to give like 30-40% subsidy. It's impossible to deal with these sort of people, it doesn't matter that the systems have a ROI in 2-3 years now. Like for real, you can take out a 10 year renewable loan for it, get 30-40% subsidy, finance 110% of the remaining, and pay immediately less money, and yet they are complaining.
Also if you mention heat pump, no Dutch person will think about air conditioning. If I go to the website of any HVAC company, it will be a different category. I guess it's the lack of awareness which is the biggest issue. Also no subsidy for air conditioning, because... Well because it would make sense, and that's not what governments do.
-
And there was a toilet paper shortage not that long ago, artificially created, and done by mass hysteria.
The russians have a name for these people, it's UI or useful idiots.
We are prepared, the gas storage in Germany is 80% full, and it's enough for months. The only loosing method for us is to change policies. Otherwise let the Ukranians and Lockheed Martin and the others take care of the situation.
I'm not sure about the UK though. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.
To be clear I'm fully in support of Ukraine and if it means high gas prices, so be it. However I know the average person in the UK may be lucky to have £100 to their name by the end of the month - they simply cannot afford a £500/m energy bill. Therefore I wonder if the resolve in Europe and UK will begin to crumble.
If, indeed, it is just a short term hike in prices, and in a year or two things return to normal, then I think it could be managed. Support can be given to those on the lowest incomes, and businesses will just have to be frugal with gas. Inevitably there will be some economic shrinkage, but I don't think it will be a total disaster as some have predicted.
However, if the war in Ukraine drags on for half a decade, as some have suggested, then it becomes a lot more existential for the EU. The absolute earliest Germany will have enough LNG *terminals* is 2027 and there's an even longer lead time on the ships.
The UK is currently bringing the Rough storage facility back online but still we will have under a month of storage. However we do have three LNG terminals, which are regularly used and have contracts for supply set up already. This is probably one reason why the gas price in the UK has not risen as high as it has in the EU, in relative terms to the 2019 average. (It is about 12x for UK, 18x for EU.)
-
To be clear I'm fully in support of Ukraine and if it means high gas prices, so be it. However I know the average person in the UK may be lucky to have £100 to their name by the end of the month - they simply cannot afford a £500/m energy bill. Therefore I wonder if the resolve in Europe and UK will begin to crumble.
I sincerely hope resolve does not crumble.
There should be more urgency in UK preparedness, it's not visible to the public AFAICT. Yes, high prices will encourage many to reduce fuel consumption, hopefully enough such that coupled with a mild winter we will not see shortages and blackouts. But there should be government information broadcasts, at least stating the obvious; drive less, drive slower, insulate homes etc. But also preparing the collective mindset for the event of fuel rationing, such that it is not such a shock when it arrives - because it is that shock itself that causes the cracks in resolve.
-
One sure thing, just hope or even pray, that this coming winter will not be brutally cold. :scared:
-
Also if you mention heat pump, no Dutch person will think about air conditioning. If I go to the website of any HVAC company, it will be a different category. I guess it's the lack of awareness which is the biggest issue. Also no subsidy for air conditioning, because... Well because it would make sense, and that's not what governments do.
Interesting. Over here, if you mention air-to-air heat pump, everyone knows you can run it as AC in the summer and heating in the winter. They are very popular as complimentary heating, e.g. if your main system uses oil or electricity. People install them in garages and everywhere. I had one for ten years in addition to the oil boiler and it reduced energy bills somewhat, but most importantly increased comfort in an old drafty house. I still use it as AC in the summer, but the ground source heat pump now takes care of heating and hot water. The air-to-air unit is soon 15 years old, still running without issue. I've never had to defrost it, only cleaned the inner unit a few times.
-
Ridiculous thing is if you had an A2A fitted as part of the "renewable heat incentive" the air conditioning mode had to be disabled. Even if you personally spend many thousands of pounds on it, they do not allow a function that exists in the unit to be used.
Fortunately on most indoor units, it's just a dip-switch to turn it on again.
-
Ridiculous thing is if you had an A2A fitted as part of the "renewable heat incentive" the air conditioning mode had to be disabled. Even if you personally spend many thousands of pounds on it, they do not allow a function that exists in the unit to be used.
Fortunately on most indoor units, it's just a dip-switch to turn it on again.
That's crazy!
-
Also if you mention heat pump, no Dutch person will think about air conditioning. If I go to the website of any HVAC company, it will be a different category. I guess it's the lack of awareness which is the biggest issue. Also no subsidy for air conditioning, because... Well because it would make sense, and that's not what governments do.
There's a shortage of installers and they seem more interested in doing the simplest possible installs than innovating. FCUs are boutique here, shops trying to sell them for over twice the cost in Italy.
If the installers tapped a low cost source of FCUs and offered them for installs it would kill two birds with one stone, the limited power output of older radiators by letting the FCU jump in and cooling. With heat waves fresh in memory it wouldn't be a hard sell.
-
Ridiculous thing is if you had an A2A fitted as part of the "renewable heat incentive" the air conditioning mode had to be disabled. Even if you personally spend many thousands of pounds on it, they do not allow a function that exists in the unit to be used.
Fortunately on most indoor units, it's just a dip-switch to turn it on again.
That's crazy!
Yep! And such nonsense regulations are also the reason why in some countries reasonable things sometimes aren't done. For example, if my family would install a PV system we would be forced to found a company and become an electricity supplier because we have a tenant. Without the tenant we could install 10kWp and would have only minimal paperwork.
-
Yep! And such nonsense regulations are also the reason why in some countries reasonable things sometimes aren't done. For example, if my family would install a PV system we would be forced to found a company and become an electricity supplier because we have a tenant. Without the tenant we could install 10kWp and would have only minimal paperwork.
:palm: :palm: :palm:
-
. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.
Rubbish we have a good reason,we like to maximize the profit for a few.Gas storage is a fine example.Why pay for repairs when we can pass the savings onto the shareholders.
-
And there was a toilet paper shortage not that long ago, artificially created, and done by mass hysteria.
The russians have a name for these people, it's UI or useful idiots.
We are prepared, the gas storage in Germany is 80% full, and it's enough for months. The only loosing method for us is to change policies. Otherwise let the Ukranians and Lockheed Martin and the others take care of the situation.
I'm not sure about the UK though. You guys seems to be perfectly capable to shooting yourself in the foot for no reason every time.
To be clear I'm fully in support of Ukraine and if it means high gas prices, so be it. However I know the average person in the UK may be lucky to have £100 to their name by the end of the month - they simply cannot afford a £500/m energy bill. Therefore I wonder if the resolve in Europe and UK will begin to crumble.
If, indeed, it is just a short term hike in prices, and in a year or two things return to normal, then I think it could be managed. Support can be given to those on the lowest incomes, and businesses will just have to be frugal with gas. Inevitably there will be some economic shrinkage, but I don't think it will be a total disaster as some have predicted.
However, if the war in Ukraine drags on for half a decade, as some have suggested, then it becomes a lot more existential for the EU. The absolute earliest Germany will have enough LNG *terminals* is 2027 and there's an even longer lead time on the ships.
The UK is currently bringing the Rough storage facility back online but still we will have under a month of storage. However we do have three LNG terminals, which are regularly used and have contracts for supply set up already. This is probably one reason why the gas price in the UK has not risen as high as it has in the EU, in relative terms to the 2019 average. (It is about 12x for UK, 18x for EU.)
Is it really helping Ukraine? I question how much of an impact on Russia the sanctions are really having. I can't see that war ending any time soon.
As far as heat pumps are concerned. What tariff are you on? For me gas is 4 times cheaper than electricity and my energy usage is very low, because I like cold showers, so it's not worth it, at this stage.
-
Is it really helping Ukraine? I question how much of an impact on Russia the sanctions are really having. I can't see that war ending any time soon.
As far as heat pumps are concerned. What tariff are you on? For me gas is 4 times cheaper than electricity and my energy usage is very low, because I like cold showers, so it's not worth it, at this stage.
I don't think the sanctions are strictly helping Ukraine in the short term, but they could have a benefit. Any technology or financial restriction will make it harder to replace weapons that are destroyed. It's been reported that around 25% of all S400 systems that Russia owns have now been destroyed by the Ukranians - these require technology from the West, such as advanced radar engines and FPGAs that are now under sanction. While Russia can probably source these from other locations, e.g. China, it will make it more expensive and more difficult, which will limit the rate at which they can build new S400's.
Now, whether that makes a difference in the war in the longer term is more questionable. It really is a case of making sure that Ukraine can resist Russia, to either the point where they withdraw because the losses are insurmountable, or because they can no longer achieve their aims with the resources remaining. It's more or less been in stalemate for the last 3 months, with Ukraine very slowly pushing back, but without enormously obvious progress in either direction.
The other question is let's say EU gets around the negotiation table with Putin to ask for more gas: do you think he's only going to ask for sanctions to be lifted, or do you think he'll want to see a complete withdrawal of NATO support? I suspect the latter. While EU doesn't control NATO - they could apply pressure within member states and on the US to ratchet things back.
As for heatpumps, I think they make a lot more sense if solar can contribute to your energy input, but at a COP of 4 they could still be better than a gas boiler (~80-85% efficient in a typical install.)
-
Is it really helping Ukraine? I question how much of an impact on Russia the sanctions are really having. I can't see that war ending any time soon.
As far as heat pumps are concerned. What tariff are you on? For me gas is 4 times cheaper than electricity and my energy usage is very low, because I like cold showers, so it's not worth it, at this stage.
I don't think the sanctions are strictly helping Ukraine in the short term, but they could have a benefit. Any technology or financial restriction will make it harder to replace weapons that are destroyed. It's been reported that around 25% of all S400 systems that Russia owns have now been destroyed by the Ukranians - these require technology from the West, such as advanced radar engines and FPGAs that are now under sanction. While Russia can probably source these from other locations, e.g. China, it will make it more expensive and more difficult, which will limit the rate at which they can build new S400's.
Now, whether that makes a difference in the war in the longer term is more questionable. It really is a case of making sure that Ukraine can resist Russia, to either the point where they withdraw because the losses are insurmountable, or because they can no longer achieve their aims with the resources remaining. It's more or less been in stalemate for the last 3 months, with Ukraine very slowly pushing back, but without enormously obvious progress in either direction.
The other question is let's say EU gets around the negotiation table with Putin to ask for more gas: do you think he's only going to ask for sanctions to be lifted, or do you think he'll want to see a complete withdrawal of NATO support? I suspect the latter. While EU doesn't control NATO - they could apply pressure within member states and on the US to ratchet things back.
I'm cynical about the propaganda pumped out by the mainstream media.
I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering, then Russia would be happy to supply gas at a decent price.
As for heatpumps, I think they make a lot more sense if solar can contribute to your energy input, but at a COP of 4 they could still be better than a gas boiler (~80-85% efficient in a typical install.)
Solar panels are useless in the winter. I don't use much energy. It was just 757kW of gas and 830kW of electricity last year (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/building-thermal-insulation/?action=dlattach;attach=1548535;image). I have a combi boiler and radiators with thin pipes designed for very hot water. I'm better off putting more money into paying off the mortgage, than buying a heat pump. I don't drive, so I won't buy an EV.
-
I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering, then Russia would be happy to supply gas at a decent price.
Nah. I don't accept this at all. Remember, Putin invaded Crimea and was funding DPR separatists well before any talk of Ukraine joining NATO was there. DPR separatists using Russian military technology were the cause of MH17's untimely end and the death of 298 completely innocent civilians. Also, Ukraine offered to withdraw any suggestion of ascension to NATO just after the invasion as a compromise. Putin is responsible for this war, not the EU. It's the fact that the EU and NATO were willing to support Ukraine so significantly that threw him off course. While we can't know his exact plans, it seems he's given up on the prize of Kyiv and instead wants to just annex a significant coastal area of Ukraine to weaken the state further.
Now, could the EU negotiate an arrangement with Putin? Possibly, but I don't see a negotiation where Ukraine doesn't become at the very least in a permanent stalemate (a bit like the Koreas) but even then that might be an optimistic outcome, more likely he will want a puppet state like Belarus on his border. That can only be achieved by NATO withdrawing support, Ukraine runs out of weapons and intelligence and Kyiv eventually falls.
-
I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering, then Russia would be happy to supply gas at a decent price.
Nah. I don't accept this at all. Remember, Putin invaded Crimea and was funding DPR separatists well before any talk of Ukraine joining NATO was there. DPR separatists using Russian military technology were the cause of MH17's untimely end and the death of 298 completely innocent civilians. Also, Ukraine offered to withdraw any suggestion of ascension to NATO just after the invasion as a compromise. Putin is responsible for this war, not the EU. It's the fact that the EU and NATO were willing to support Ukraine so significantly that threw him off course. While we can't know his exact plans, it seems he's given up on the prize of Kyiv and instead wants to just annex a significant coastal area of Ukraine to weaken the state further.
Now, could the EU negotiate an arrangement with Putin? Possibly, but I don't see a negotiation where Ukraine doesn't become at the very least in a permanent stalemate (a bit like the Koreas) but even then that might be an optimistic outcome, more likely he will want a puppet state like Belarus on his border. That can only be achieved by NATO withdrawing support, Ukraine runs out of weapons and intelligence and Kyiv eventually falls.
It goes back further than that. The invasion of Crimea was triggered by NATO/EU interference. The mainstream media appear to have forgotten a lot of the history. You need to look at things from the Russian perspective. Here's a link to an essay and video, which explains it quite well.
https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf (https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf)
YouTube video (https://tinyurl.com/2j8vzzwa)
The war won't end, because there are Russian supporters from within Ukraine. Ukraine needs to make a deal with Russia and the West must promise to leave things be.
-
There's no doubt that the US gave a little push to Ukraine to get them going in a more desirable direction, but Euromaidan was going to happen regardless and that's the reason Yanukovych fell, it was not US interventions that caused that. And the Ukrainians deciding to democratically elect the former comedian/actor Zelenskyy and push more towards EU/NATO alignment is their decision as a sovereign nation. Again, I maintain that Russia's actions are not justifiable, in any way. The fact that they use the claim of "denazifying" Ukraine shows how sincere they are.
For what it's worth, I don't see any compromise that doesn't involve Ukraine losing at least DPR/LPR and probably Crimea. EU/Ukraine/Russia need to agree to hold democratic elections in those territories and agree to abide by the results. If they vote one way or another that's accepted and the end of it.
-
There's no doubt that the US gave a little push to Ukraine to get them going in a more desirable direction, but Euromaidan was going to happen regardless and that's the reason Yanukovych fell, it was not US interventions that caused that. And the Ukrainians deciding to democratically elect the former comedian/actor Zelenskyy and push more towards EU/NATO alignment is their decision as a sovereign nation. Again, I maintain that Russia's actions are not justifiable, in any way. The fact that they use the claim of "denazifying" Ukraine shows how sincere they are.
For what it's worth, I don't see any compromise that doesn't involve Ukraine losing at least DPR/LPR and probably Crimea. EU/Ukraine/Russia need to agree to hold democratic elections in those territories and agree to abide by the results. If they vote one way or another that's accepted and the end of it.
A desirable direction to whom? Don't forget some Ukrainians support Russia.
The problem with propaganda is there's some element of truth to it. I can confirm there are Nazis in Ukraine. I've been there and witnessed it myself. It goes back to the Germans helping some Ukrainians, during the WW2. Obviously, Zelenskyy is no Nazi, neither are most Ukrainians and that's no justification for it. My point is, some of the money sent by the West is going to Nazis.
Again, I'm not supporting what Russia is doing, but Zelenskyy is no angel either.
-
There's no doubt that the US gave a little push to Ukraine to get them going in a more desirable direction, but Euromaidan was going to happen regardless and that's the reason Yanukovych fell, it was not US interventions that caused that. And the Ukrainians deciding to democratically elect the former comedian/actor Zelenskyy and push more towards EU/NATO alignment is their decision as a sovereign nation. Again, I maintain that Russia's actions are not justifiable, in any way. The fact that they use the claim of "denazifying" Ukraine shows how sincere they are.
For what it's worth, I don't see any compromise that doesn't involve Ukraine losing at least DPR/LPR and probably Crimea. EU/Ukraine/Russia need to agree to hold democratic elections in those territories and agree to abide by the results. If they vote one way or another that's accepted and the end of it.
Propaganda is very high right now. From both sides.
Lies through the teeth are casual news these days. :-\
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwVUp4IWEKw&list=PLPXDAOv6gXa3Xsx-rKLYd0W1LvhjlwCTk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwVUp4IWEKw&list=PLPXDAOv6gXa3Xsx-rKLYd0W1LvhjlwCTk)
The posted video is, in fact, a very long playlist. Seen in there some very scary things that allegedly happened in Ukraine. Maybe Ukrainian users here can infirm/confirm those videos. Those are not the only ones that diverge from the official narrative. There is also a couple of episodes documentary/interview with Putin.
So far, to me Putin was more convincing than the Jews. I was never a sympathizer, nor a hater of any of them, it's just how it seems to me. Very sad that the Ukraine people right now are sacrificed, and the whole western world is getting serious financial and economic damage too, by corrupted government and stupid blanket laws. The ones who prosper are those who sell and test weapons. The "help" for Ukraine is not free, it's in fact debt to be payed maybe 2-5 generations from now on. The very few, very rich, and very powerful globalist are the only ones that will benefit. We are all (in the West) spending money for the generations to come right now. More borrows, more interest, more independence lost for financial clemency.
The very rich will get richer, the rest will get poorer, and plenty of youngsters will be killed in the process. I think it's time to speak our minds, or get economically enslaved for the next 50-100 years to come, maybe thrown in a WW3 that will trash the whole Western world.
The Ukraine war was to come, and prepared for almost a decade now.
I'm afraid Ukraine is just the scapegoat here, the bet is much higher.
I'm very sad for all the civilians and the soldiers too, both Ukrainian and Russian, and other nationalities, too.
-
Propaganda is very high right now. From both sides.
Lies through the teeth are casual news these days. :-\
Look up the word gosvranyo. The point of it is that russian state media lies, and never tells the truth. And it does it like a psychopath, and you are not prepared for that, at all. If you are presented with 100% lies, you will think that maybe only 80% of it are lies. And maybe its the same from both sides. And then they already put the propaganda and fake news in your brain, and then you go online and tell others that you believe.
-
I never like the argument "well both sides lie and so therefore you have to accept nothing is true".
I mean on the face of it. You're not wrong. There is propaganda on both sides. If you genuinely believe the Ukranians have killed 46,000 Russians but only lost 9,000 of their own (yet are struggling to find men to push into Kherson) then yeah, you're a fool, because of course that's just propaganda.
But there are a few things to realise.
In Russia it is illegal to call the invasion what it is, which is a war against Ukraine. It is illegal to publish anything condemning or criticising the war. It is de-facto illegal to oppose actions of Putin publicly, because you will disappear/be arrested/be poisoned/be defenestrated.
There is no world in which it is a justifiable action to invade another country to "denazify" it, even if there are actually nazis inside the Azov regiment for instance. You can economically sanction it, petition the UN, demand for change, public outcry. But invasion - in which thousands of civilians have their lives uprooted, or are just plain killed, is not acceptable.
And if Russia's stated goal is honest - to "denazify" the state - why do they constantly hit civilian infrastructure? Shopping malls, apartment blocks, schools and hospitals. These are not legitimate military targets.
Russia is a terrorist state - and attempting to justify their actions is no better than justifying 9/11 by saying that the US had tampered too much with the Middle East.
-
I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
-
I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
And how could you know if you might be next ?
Unsavory as it is a statement needed to be made by the west months ago and wasn't therefore the bed is made and now we must lie in it.
-
I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
No effect? Are you kidding?
https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/ (https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/)
- Some industries have seen over 97% decline in sales in niche areas, 63% in cars, 60% in white goods: these industries are decimated
- Inflation of 17.1% (Russian statistic) or 25% (Western analysis)
- Central bank rate set up to 20%
- Imports fallen by 50%
- Withdrawal of major post-Soviet capitalist corporations, e.g. McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Volkswagen... These companies are not coming back
- Real wages fallen almost 10%
- Significant reduction in sale price per barrel of oil due to EU embargoes, and more costly to sell to Asia
- No options to sell natural gas outside of EU, essentially destroying their industry here
- Loss of over $300bn in capital in EU banks that is under restriction
-
There's no doubt that the US gave a little push to Ukraine to get them going in a more desirable direction, but Euromaidan was going to happen regardless and that's the reason Yanukovych fell, it was not US interventions that caused that. And the Ukrainians deciding to democratically elect the former comedian/actor Zelenskyy and push more towards EU/NATO alignment is their decision as a sovereign nation. Again, I maintain that Russia's actions are not justifiable, in any way. The fact that they use the claim of "denazifying" Ukraine shows how sincere they are.
For what it's worth, I don't see any compromise that doesn't involve Ukraine losing at least DPR/LPR and probably Crimea. EU/Ukraine/Russia need to agree to hold democratic elections in those territories and agree to abide by the results. If they vote one way or another that's accepted and the end of it.
A desirable direction to whom? Don't forget some Ukrainians support Russia.
The problem with propaganda is there's some element of truth to it. I can confirm there are Nazis in Ukraine. I've been there and witnessed it myself. It goes back to the Germans helping some Ukrainians, during the WW2. Obviously, Zelenskyy is no Nazi, neither are most Ukrainians and that's no justification for it. My point is, some of the money sent by the West is going to Nazis.
Again, I'm not supporting what Russia is doing, but Zelenskyy is no angel either.
the Azov Battalion fighting the Russian annexation obviously had Nazi ideologies, afaiu the Nazi figures at the top were removed and the battalion integrated into the regular army as special forces (you don't get rid of experienced soldiers when in a war)
and Putin is using that as a justification for Ukraine being Nazi, while he himself also have neo-nazis fighting on the Russian side
-
I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
No effect? Are you kidding?
https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/ (https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/)
- Some industries have seen over 97% decline in sales in niche areas, 63% in cars, 60% in white goods: these industries are decimated
- Inflation of 17.1% (Russian statistic) or 25% (Western analysis)
- Central bank rate set up to 20%
- Imports fallen by 50%
- Withdrawal of major post-Soviet capitalist corporations, e.g. McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Volkswagen... These companies are not coming back
- Real wages fallen almost 10%
- Significant reduction in sale price per barrel of oil due to EU embargoes, and more costly to sell to Asia
- No options to sell natural gas outside of EU, essentially destroying their industry here
- Loss of over $300bn in capital in EU banks that is under restriction
and their airlines are doomed, most of their planes are western planes that can no longer get maintenance or spare parts, some of the newer Russian planes use western engines. Most of the planes were leased so they should by contract have been returned
when the sanctions started, they weren't and a now effectively scrap with no maintenance. The leasing companies are probably not very keen on leasing them more planes when this is over
-
But we're also experiencing economic hardship. It doesn't appear to be making much difference to the war. I can see China stepping in to help.
-
I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
No effect? Are you kidding?
https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/ (https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/)
- Some industries have seen over 97% decline in sales in niche areas, 63% in cars, 60% in white goods: these industries are decimated
- Inflation of 17.1% (Russian statistic) or 25% (Western analysis)
- Central bank rate set up to 20%
- Imports fallen by 50%
- Withdrawal of major post-Soviet capitalist corporations, e.g. McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Volkswagen... These companies are not coming back
- Real wages fallen almost 10%
- Significant reduction in sale price per barrel of oil due to EU embargoes, and more costly to sell to Asia
- No options to sell natural gas outside of EU, essentially destroying their industry here
- Loss of over $300bn in capital in EU banks that is under restriction
and their airlines are doomed, most of their planes are western planes that can no longer get maintenance or spare parts, some of the newer Russian planes use western engines. Most of the planes were leased so they should by contract have been returned
when the sanctions started, they weren't and a now effectively scrap with no maintenance. The leasing companies are probably not very keen on leasing them more planes when this is over
Be that as it may, unfortunately I believe they still make their own tanks and the engines for them. :(
-
Isnt fracking the way forward now?
Doesnt it solve everything?
And theres loads of coal in EU and UK.
Ban Aircon.
Ban heating on if people arent already wearing coats indoors.
Scarfs wooly hats indoors.
Have heavy sleeping clothes.
Indoor sleeping tents.
How many places i have worked where the heating was on when it didnt need to be.
Street lights off.
Showers which auto turn off after one minute.....you can turn it on again for another minute...but itll be a reminder to finish up quick.
What about mini power stations getting set up all over the place...ones that can burn coal.
-
But we're also experiencing economic hardship. It doesn't appear to be making much difference to the war. I can see China stepping in to help.
It probably won't make much difference in the short term. Russia has substantial reserves of equipment, though they will struggle to replace anything that is specialist or reliant on imported parts due to sanctions.
But in the longer term it increasingly makes the war increasingly non-viable as a route forward. And the more difficult and more painful it is both for ordinary Russians and the wealthy elite, including oligarchs, the more precarious Putin's position is. Putin only cares about whether he lives another day or not. If that's in danger, he'll order a withdrawal, even if it makes him look weaker.
I don't - honestly - know who will blink first. If I were a betting man, I would suggest the EU's resolve would be weaker, but there may be a compromise where both sides save face.
-
This war may not be about ukraine...it may be about the arctic, and ukraine is just to see what weapons the other side has got.
Arctic (north pole) is the big big prize here.
Packed full of oil and minerals.
With Putin you never know...he could fire off nukes on Ukraine, or just get up and leave ukraine totally alone...having now had a wee "look" at what weapons the West have got.
I reckon Putin saw that video of Zelensky skipping and jumping about in that Teddy suit, and thought he was soft, so thought he'd "have a poke" and see,
-
But we're also experiencing economic hardship. It doesn't appear to be making much difference to the war. I can see China stepping in to help.
It probably won't make much difference in the short term. Russia has substantial reserves of equipment, though they will struggle to replace anything that is specialist or reliant on imported parts due to sanctions.
But in the longer term it increasingly makes the war increasingly non-viable as a route forward. And the more difficult and more painful it is both for ordinary Russians and the wealthy elite, including oligarchs, the more precarious Putin's position is. Putin only cares about whether he lives another day or not. If that's in danger, he'll order a withdrawal, even if it makes him look weaker.
I don't - honestly - know who will blink first. If I were a betting man, I would suggest the EU's resolve would be weaker, but there may be a compromise where both sides save face.
Trouble is as yet there is no common pain that pushes either to put feet under the negotiation table and when one party is governed by ‘my way or the highway’ it’s unlikely any resolution is to come about soon. :(
-
- Withdrawal of major post-Soviet capitalist corporations, e.g. McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Volkswagen... These companies are not coming back
Yes they are. Their withdrawal is just superficial. The minute the war is over, those companies will be back in seconds.
-
... The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference.....
It does, big time ... its just the mainstream media in EU & UK are trying so hard to suppress this historical change that is happening, or trying so hard to make it much more milder.
Heck, my German friend currently living there, said there are a lot of people there still think and "believe" Russia is about to surrender/regime change/Zelensky's troop marches to Moscow/Putin coup/etc, what ever fantasy as propaganda media pumped out to them will happen soon ... before this winter, just can't believe the delusional level at mass level, the brain washing propaganda machine there must be very-very good and effective throughout EU & UK. :-DD
This event is so historical and so huge, that is being suppressed by the medias there, is now popping out in US, in this popular Tucker Carlson segment, like him or not, he is merely stating a bitter truth about what to come in Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn6c-UkqlHo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn6c-UkqlHo)
-
- Withdrawal of major post-Soviet capitalist corporations, e.g. McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Volkswagen... These companies are not coming back
Yes they are. Their withdrawal is just superficial. The minute the war is over, those companies will be back in seconds.
Regarding Coca-cola .. here what happened in Russia.
Quote ...
"Coca-Cola reluctant to leave Russia
The US soft-drink maker will change its iconic name and remain on the market
US soft-drink giant Coca-Cola will sell its iconic product in Russia under the Dobry Cola brand, according to the founder of the Teremok fast-food chain, Mikhail Goncharov.
“We have received notice from Coca-Cola that the drink will now be called Dobry Cola, the one that was previously Coca-Cola. We will try to sell it,” Goncharov said on Friday, as quoted by Interfax.
The new soft drink will have to compete with Russian companies that have launched their own colas, he added.
Interfax also cited a letter to employees from Coca-Cola HBC CEO Zoran Bogdanovich, in which he announced the cessation of production and sale of Coca-Cola brands in Russia.
The US company announced plans to suspend business in Russia in March, joining the exodus of other iconic Western brands, including McDonalds, amid sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine."
The source -> https://www.rt.com/business/561623-coca-cola-rebranding-russia/ (https://www.rt.com/business/561623-coca-cola-rebranding-russia/)
PS : The web site above is probably banned throughout EU & UK countries and probably US too (but accessible thru VPN), as the people are too dumb to read and decide for them self, and probably will be brainwashed by bad propaganda, according the gov. top officials, viva democrazy and freedom of speech ... and hail "Dobry Cola" .. :-DD
-
There is a gigantic delusion indeed from the masses.
From our political leaders... I dunno. Still don't know if it's delusion or if it's just intentional. Yeah, I know. Nobody wants to hear that.
Oh as to McDonald's... it only took a couple weeks for the russian group getting control of the restaurants to re-open under a new russian name and continue as usual. With practically the same menus except for the names.
-
I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering
This is Russian propaganda. There is no a single international agreement, ratified by any NATO member state or not, that spells out such promises.
-
The problem with propaganda is there's some element of truth to it. I can confirm there are Nazis in Ukraine. I've been there and witnessed it myself. It goes back to the Germans helping some Ukrainians, during the WW2. Obviously, Zelenskyy is no Nazi, neither are most Ukrainians and that's no justification for it. My point is, some of the money sent by the West is going to Nazis.
This is Russian propaganda. The truth is, Zelensky, who is ethnic Jew, got 73% popular vote during last elections.
-
I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering
This is Russian propaganda. There is no a single international agreement, ratified by any NATO member state or not, that spells out such promises.
Yep, clearly that is the evil and nasty Russia propaganda, as I see you carry US flag, you should be aware that even an US former congresswoman and also an US president candidate, also she is an US military colonel and heck, even one of the most popular news host in US, Tucker Carlson too, all are bashing Ukraine like hell ... clearly they are moles and evil Putin's mouth piece.
Damn, forget about EU countries, Putin literally already won over US too, isn't he ? :-DD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoIZD8Ebjxs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoIZD8Ebjxs)
-
I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
This is what Russia, through its propaganda outlets, including RT (“Russia Today”) quoted in this thread, wants West to do.
The fact is, Russia was manipulating EU natural gas spot prices last autumn, 6 months before the invasion, and before the sanctions that followed. The only EU’s failure is that they neglected their energy security for decades, creating too much dependency on Russia, who proved to be unreliable supplier.
Limited EU sanctions, that excluded energy embargo, do have benign impact on Russia. EU was sending 800 million Euros a day to Russia, financing Russian war, while Russian soldiers, mercenaries and KGB officers where raping women in Bucha and Irpen, carpet bombing Mariupol, castrating POWs, and sending tens of thousands of civilians through filtration camps.
-
I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering
This is Russian propaganda. There is no a single international agreement, ratified by any NATO member state or not, that spells out such promises.
Yep, clearly that is the evil and nasty Russia propaganda, as I see you carry US flag, you should be aware that even an US former congresswoman and also an US president candidate, also she is an US military colonel and heck, even one of the most popular news host in US, Tucker Carlson too, all are bashing Ukraine like hell ... clearly they are moles and evil Putin's mouth piece.
Damn, forget about EU countries, Putin literally already won over US too, isn't he ? :-DD
If there was an international agreement, where Russia was given the non-expansion promise - tell me the name that agreement, and date when it was ratified by the Congress.
-
So this thread is turning into propaganda by Putin's useful idiots in west, knowing nothing about the realities living as a neighbor next to an imperialistic and fascistic country with an autocratic leader. From our perspective, people like Trump, Tucker Carlson & al are clearly bought by Russian money, and knowingly or not are spreading their propaganda in the west. Even mentioning the word "nazi" in context of Ukraine, should make all bells ring, because that is the Russian false narrative.
Can you trolls stay out of here, or moderators, please lock this thread!
-
Can you trolls stay out of here
It's not about trolls, it's IQ101 "muh I'm a free thinker muh THE TWO SIDES OF THE COIN" useful idiots who are not intelligent enough to realize they are being used. It doesn't surprise me the slightest. The Russian propaganda is based on the principle of making really simple matters look like complex issues with many sides, and feed that bullcrap into media world-wide. Then our "free thinkers" go "OMG, there are nazis in Ukraine, too!"
The problem: the exact same propaganda can be seen for Finland, too. International press already contains news like "there are nazis in Finland", "Finland is the most racist country of Europe" etc. etc. Guess where these news are coming from? It' a process that takes years or decades.
And if/when Russia decides to try to invade Finland, then our Zero999 Free Thinkers go "OMG, there are two sides to this coin, I can confirm there are nazis in Finland, and by the way, they are the most racist country of the Europe. And by the way, I don't support the Russia's attack, BUT..." And meanwhile we are being ass-raped.
-
So this thread is turning into propaganda by Putin's useful idiots in west, knowing nothing about the realities living as a neighbor next to an imperialistic and fascistic country with an autocratic leader. From our perspective, people like Trump, Tucker Carlson & al are clearly bought by Russian money, and knowingly or not are spreading their propaganda in the west. Even mentioning the word "nazi" in context of Ukraine, should make all bells ring, because that is the Russian false narrative.
Can you trolls stay out of here, or moderators, please lock this thread!
I prefer that it remain open. Let the tankies and trolls tell us who they are. It may save time later.
-
Can we keep the politics out please.
As for the UK Armagedon will start when we have to cut gas supplies as we don't have enough to generate electricity and you can't have a bit of a grid. Industries will have to shut down to save electricity.
The UK made it's worse mistake when it did not take renewables seriously. Without outside energy supplies we are nought.
-
The UK made it's worse mistake when it did not take renewables seriously. Without outside energy supplies we are nought.
Yes, this was a critical mistake. Also not demanding enough insulation in houses was another (scrapped by Cameron gov 2013).
-
Can we keep the politics out please.
As for the UK Armagedon will start when we have to cut gas supplies as we don't have enough to generate electricity and you can't have a bit of a grid. Industries will have to shut down to save electricity.
The UK made it's worse mistake when it did not take renewables seriously. Without outside energy supplies we are nought.
Wouldn't rolling brown outs to the residential areas be more acceptable to keep industry running and then there's the tube....... :scared:
Authorities can also get a lot smarter with low consumption lighting and/or dialing it back when security and safety requirements permit.
Has your Gubbermint started asking for the population to go easy on energy in preparation for the winter ?
-
Moving away from politics as clearly there is fairly fierce disagreement here.
I have been looking at super-insulating my home. It is a 1930's detached house, extended in the 80s. The walls have cavity insulation, and the loft is insulated, the windows double glazed, but I'm fairly sure the floor isn't insulated. I found this interesting guide:
https://www.sureinsulation.co.uk/services/services-house-warming-parties-blog.shtml (https://www.sureinsulation.co.uk/services/services-house-warming-parties-blog.shtml)
It looks like a day or two's worth of work to do for the living room (and I'd probably use PIR sheets instead as it'd be quicker for minimal extra cost. would save fitting battens between the boards) but potentially worthwhile. I want to replace the carpet in the living room anyway as it's badly stained from the previous owners, so it might be a good two-for-one job.
The other rooms would be more difficult. The diner has a solid floor and the kitchen is tiled, so those might need to wait, but the living room is one area we will spend a lot of time in.
-
I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering
This is Russian propaganda. There is no a single international agreement, ratified by any NATO member state or not, that spells out such promises.
Yes, there is.
It's called the Budapest memorandum. It states:
Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following:
Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.
Oh wait...
-
Moving away from politics as clearly there is fairly fierce disagreement here.
I have been looking at super-insulating my home. It is a 1930's detached house, extended in the 80s. The walls have cavity insulation, and the loft is insulated, the windows double glazed, but I'm fairly sure the floor isn't insulated. I found this interesting guide:
https://www.sureinsulation.co.uk/services/services-house-warming-parties-blog.shtml (https://www.sureinsulation.co.uk/services/services-house-warming-parties-blog.shtml)
It looks like a day or two's worth of work to do for the living room (and I'd probably use PIR sheets instead as it'd be quicker for minimal extra cost. would save fitting battens between the boards) but potentially worthwhile. I want to replace the carpet in the living room anyway as it's badly stained from the previous owners, so it might be a good two-for-one job.
The other rooms would be more difficult. The diner has a solid floor and the kitchen is tiled, so those might need to wait, but the living room is one area we will spend a lot of time in.
Can you get under your house? If yes, then you could apply insulation there onto the other side of the floor. But whatever you do, you have to be very carefull with trapping moisture / creating 'cold bridges' that can introduce build up of moisture and cause mold & water damage issues. Better get an expert's opinion first on what is a good approach.
-
Can you get under your house? If yes, then you could apply insulation there onto the other side of the floor. But whatever you do, you have to be very carefull with trapping moisture / creating 'cold bridges' that can introduce build up of moisture and cause mold & water damage issues. Better get an expert's opinion first on what is a good approach.
No access under the property without building a basement unfortunately. However, I do need to check if the building was actually constructed with airbricks to provide under floor ventilation, to prevent the timbers from rotting. There's signs in the garage of these (garage is attached) but I can't see them anywhere else, which is a bit odd.
-
There is no crawl space at all? How to get to pipes under the house?
Don't be surprised if it turns out that is is easier & better to rip the entire ground floor out and replace the entire floor. My guess is that after all this time, some timbers will have started to rot and need replacing anyway. It will cost money but IMHO the increased living comfort alone will be worth it. It would be a pity to add insulation on top only to find out everything needs to be ripped out again to fix the floor.
-
There is no crawl space at all? How to get to pipes under the house?
Don't be surprised if it turns out that is is easier & better to rip the entire ground floor out and replace the entire floor. My guess is that after all this time, some timbers will have started to rot and need replacing anyway. It will cost money but IMHO the increased living comfort alone will be worth it.
All pipes are above ground, inside the living space. This is pretty common for British homes. They're either buried in walls and covered with plaster, or just below the subfloor (therefore requiring the floor to be ripped up to service them, yay), or just routed around the walls as a surface fixture.
-
Can we keep the politics out please.
As for the UK Armagedon will start when we have to cut gas supplies as we don't have enough to generate electricity and you can't have a bit of a grid. Industries will have to shut down to save electricity.
The UK made it's worse mistake when it did not take renewables seriously. Without outside energy supplies we are nought.
Strange because I see a ton of Solar being installed in the UK. That and people buying EVs and installing their EV charging points.
I say that because I follow 2 YT channels that focus in electrical and solar instalations/troubleshooting in the UK:
https://youtu.be/C6RBzFaf9Lg
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2u_ypf5vMypbnMhzsbNlBhr-lX2wp0et
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2u_ypf5vMyqQe9mb7V1ohQg-2TgVZJ34
https://youtube.com/c/OvalRenewables
Going by this I would assume that although not taking seriously before, there have been a push and increase in Solar plus EVs.
-
All pipes are above ground, inside the living space. This is pretty common for British homes. They're either buried in walls and covered with plaster, or just below the subfloor (therefore requiring the floor to be ripped up to service them, yay), or just routed around the walls as a surface fixture.
Lots of US homes don't have a crawlspace either, although lots of them do. They built millions and millions of the classic split level design which is what my house is. It's built on a slab with a daylight basement, there is a central wall that the water supply and DWV pipes are in and they branch off from there in the cavity between the upper floor and the basement.
The thing that surprised me about UK homes is how many of them have the DWV pipes run down the outside. All of the houses in the area where my friend lived had toilets on outside walls that drain right through the wall to a pipe run down the outside. You would never see that over here, our toilets universally drain out the bottom and into a pipe that runs down an inside wall. You don't see exposed infrastructure in general here on private homes.
-
The problem with propaganda is there's some element of truth to it. I can confirm there are Nazis in Ukraine. I've been there and witnessed it myself. It goes back to the Germans helping some Ukrainians, during the WW2. Obviously, Zelenskyy is no Nazi, neither are most Ukrainians and that's no justification for it. My point is, some of the money sent by the West is going to Nazis.
This is Russian propaganda. The truth is, Zelensky, who is ethnic Jew, got 73% popular vote during last elections.
What propaganda? I've been to Ukraine and personally spoken to Nazis there. They referred to blacks as niggers and that the country would be better without them and the Jews. I know Zelensky is a Jew. I never said he was a Nazi. I clearly said that's not the case. How free and fair the election was is another matter. It's much more complicated than Putin bad, Zelensky good. The two men have a lot in common, character wise. They're built of the same stuff. The difference is Putin did start it and is in the wrong, but that doesn't mean Zelensky is a saint.Can we keep the politics out please.
As for the UK Armagedon will start when we have to cut gas supplies as we don't have enough to generate electricity and you can't have a bit of a grid. Industries will have to shut down to save electricity.
The UK made it's worse mistake when it did not take renewables seriously. Without outside energy supplies we are nought.
Strange because I see a ton of Solar being installed in the UK. That and people buying EVs and installing their EV charging points.
I say that because I follow 2 YT channels that focus in electrical and solar instalations/troubleshooting in the UK:
https://youtu.be/C6RBzFaf9Lg (https://youtu.be/C6RBzFaf9Lg)
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2u_ypf5vMypbnMhzsbNlBhr-lX2wp0et (https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2u_ypf5vMypbnMhzsbNlBhr-lX2wp0et)
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2u_ypf5vMyqQe9mb7V1ohQg-2TgVZJ34 (https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2u_ypf5vMyqQe9mb7V1ohQg-2TgVZJ34)
https://youtube.com/c/OvalRenewables (https://youtube.com/c/OvalRenewables)
Going by this I would assume that although not taking seriously before, there have been a push and increase in Solar plus EVs.
Solar is useless during the winter. The equinox is just over three weeks away, most of the country is north of 50o parallel and the weather tends to be the most overcast between October and January, so we often get no solar at all on some days. Wind tends to pick up at this time of year, but it's also quite common to get fog, when it's cold with no wind or solar.
In the long term we need nuclear, but I do think we need fracking to supply energy in the meantime. I know that's an unpopular opinion, but needs must. I think there should be some sort of scheme to give people who live near a nuclear reactor, or fracking field cheaper energy bills, so they're less likely to complain. I suppose cheap district heating for those near a nuclear plant would be a big benefit and save more energy at the same time.
Moving away from politics as clearly there is fairly fierce disagreement here.
I have been looking at super-insulating my home. It is a 1930's detached house, extended in the 80s. The walls have cavity insulation, and the loft is insulated, the windows double glazed, but I'm fairly sure the floor isn't insulated. I found this interesting guide:
https://www.sureinsulation.co.uk/services/services-house-warming-parties-blog.shtml (https://www.sureinsulation.co.uk/services/services-house-warming-parties-blog.shtml)
It looks like a day or two's worth of work to do for the living room (and I'd probably use PIR sheets instead as it'd be quicker for minimal extra cost. would save fitting battens between the boards) but potentially worthwhile. I want to replace the carpet in the living room anyway as it's badly stained from the previous owners, so it might be a good two-for-one job.
The other rooms would be more difficult. The diner has a solid floor and the kitchen is tiled, so those might need to wait, but the living room is one area we will spend a lot of time in.
Insulation is good. Here's a picture of the loft insulation in my house. It keeps the heat out in summer, as well as warm in winter.
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=333634.0;attach=1547236;image) (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/building-thermal-insulation/?action=dlattach;attach=1547233;image)
-
Yep, clearly that is the evil and nasty Russia propaganda, as I see you carry US flag, you should be aware that even an US former congresswoman and also an US president candidate, also she is an US military colonel and heck, even one of the most popular news host in US, Tucker Carlson too, all are bashing Ukraine like hell ... clearly they are moles and evil Putin's mouth piece.
I wouldn't put too much stock in what Tucker Carlson says, he's a bit of a "shock jock", a mix of facts and opinions, with a dose of sensationalism to rile up the masses. Not that he's alone in that, in fact I don't know that there is a mainstream news outlet that doesn't have a pretty significant political bias to one side or the other these days.
-
This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing :palm:.
No, you are not. These ultra-high prices are temporaly, it's just a transient, and prices will definitely go down at the moment when all this panic go down. So we just have to withstand some time.
-
These ultra-high prices are temporaly, it's just a transient, and prices will definitely go down at the moment when all this panic go down. So we just have to withstand some time.
I fully agree. Remember the shortage of toilet paper at the beginning of COVID19? Now it's gas and fuel oil. People over here are in a fuel oil buying frenzy right now.
-
Let's not forget that when the regulators or media or whatever forecast the cost they always base it on consumption staying the same - which if you think about it is insane!
If it does get really expensive, I will turn the thermostat down, I will better insulate my home (because suddenly £1,000 on insulation panels pays off very quickly), I will dry clothes outside in summer instead of drying on off-peak electricity at night (and I'll get a heat-pump dryer instead of a standard condenser) and I will look to get solar, etc.
I reckon I could cut my gas usage in half and my electricity down by 10% (without solar) or 50% (with solar).
Now I appreciate many could not afford large capital outlays but there will still be a demand cut, they will use electric blankets, or heat only one room, that kind of thing.
-
The toilet paper shortage was panic buy. Anyways, that's not an essential product, one can use a bidet instead.
Oil and gas shortages are real. And these are essential products, without energy anything comes to a stop.
-
I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
That is 100% pro-russian statement. What value do you want to sell here? 'If there is some agressor or terrorist state you have to surrender. There is no reason to resist. '. That is what russia 100% wants and needs.
So is that a base of Western/European/democratic values? 'Don't fight for your independence and freedom'?
What military rank do you have in FSB, comrade?
-
I fully agree. Remember the shortage of toilet paper at the beginning of COVID19? Now it's gas and fuel oil. People over here are in a fuel oil buying frenzy right now.
We can make as much toilet paper as we want, trees and other fibers are a renewable resource that is plentiful in much of the world. Oil and gas are getting rarer all the time and supplies are concentrated in a few regions.
-
But we're also experiencing economic hardship. It doesn't appear to be making much difference to the war. I can see China stepping in to help.
'It is hard so lets surrender. And if you dont want to surrender - I'll give you another monster to scare you - a large and scary China'.
(I just want to translate Zero999 from his FSB language to a plain English.
-
We can make as much toilet paper as we want, trees and other fibers are a renewable resource that is plentiful in much of the world.
No, we have a slight shortage of paper for a while now (https://marketrealist.com/p/why-is-there-a-paper-shortage/).
Oil and gas are getting rarer all the time and supplies are concentrated in a few regions.
We all know that, but they don't suddenly disappear, or do they?
-
I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
Pray for adults one day be in charge................
-
Things tend to be disappearing at will these days... so who knows.
:-DD
-
I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
-
, I will better insulate my home (because suddenly £1,000 on insulation panels pays off very quickly
yea but that £1000 of insulation would only have cost £500 2 years ago,and surprise surprise its also in short supply
-
I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
Still if they are properly committed to change all avenues of energy supply and savings need be explored rather than only the populist stuff. ::)
In Perth where one of our sons live now there were interest free loans, subsidies and guaranteed buyback prices for domestic PV installations and in many parts of the city there was heavy uptake of such offerings so that in some areas panels cover 50+% of the houses in a suburb.
With care those that grabbed such incentives pay just a few $/month for their power however the catch was no local storage so all solar generation was injected back into the grid.
Then again, the place is run by adults.
-
I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
I've been saying this for a while about EVs, and most people tended to brush this off. They are starting to realize that electricity is not infinitely available either. (And that prices are shooting through the roof, and if people think this is only temporary, uh... I unfortunately don't think so.)
-
I've been saying this for a while about EVs, and most people tended to brush this off. They are starting to realize that electricity is not infinitely available either. (And that prices are shooting through the roof, and if people think this is only temporary, uh... I unfortunately don't think so.)
You may have been saying it but we haven't been listening because it's nonsense.
Passenger EVs would represent an additional 20% demand on the grid and that demand will come active over the next decade or two.
There is presently an excess of renewable energy that is not used, wind turbines often spool down when the price is too low because it's not worth the wear and tear to sell at that price.
If you have dispatchable demand ready to absorb that energy as a primary demand (rather than e.g. turning it into hydrogen to use later) then it's going to be a lot more profitable to sell it than not.
Of course it will require massive renewables installations but it's hardly beyond the wit of humans to do that.
-
I repeat. I don't support the actions of Russia in Ukraine. It's just there's a lot more to is than we're led to believe. The sanctions don't appear to be making any difference. China seems to have made friends with Russia again. All it's doing is hurting us. It's all a big mess. We really aught to step back and keep our noses out.
That is 100% pro-russian statement. What value do you want to sell here? 'If there is some agressor or terrorist state you have to surrender. There is no reason to resist. '. That is what russia 100% wants and needs.
So is that a base of Western/European/democratic values? 'Don't fight for your independence and freedom'?
What military rank do you have in FSB, comrade?
It's a pragmatic statement. The problem for Ukraine is the there are Russian supporters in the country. Where did I say anything about surrendering? It just there's very little the West can do to help. Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.
This may sound weird, but Russia do not suffer from sanctions related to energy sources. Yes they sell less of gas and oil to EU, but due to price increases they profit from energy sales as never before. So we are suffering for nothing :palm:.
No, you are not. These ultra-high prices are temporaly, it's just a transient, and prices will definitely go down at the moment when all this panic go down. So we just have to withstand some time.
Prices will go down, if/when production is increased elsewhere. The problem is the US has scaled back production, so we have to look to the Middle East and they might want to avoid increasing production too much, to keep prices high.
I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
I've been saying this for a while about EVs, and most people tended to brush this off. They are starting to realize that electricity is not infinitely available either. (And that prices are shooting through the roof, and if people think this is only temporary, uh... I unfortunately don't think so.)
To some extent electricity usage has gone down, thanks to efficiency gains in household appliances, which has left us with some spare capacity. It will be a gradual process, so there's plenty of time for the network to adapt.
-
I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
Depends on your definition of replacement... electric vehicles and heat pumps use less electrical energy to do the same job than the existing fossil fuel "solutions". A more realistic figure would be just under a doubling of electricity generation (not doubling of power/capacity!) if every single use of energy moved to electricity. Can it be done in a few years? no. 10 years? possibly with a big effort.
But that's assuming you have the existing pattern of fluctuating demand (daily/seasonal etc) which is not the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird. Existing plants are not all running with 90%+ utilization factors. Right now the price squeeze is from peak demand reliant on gas turbines where every generator must profit in isolation across all billing increments, while the other generators will take the same price and profit $$$$ on the side. A monopoly operator would be amortising the profit across the fleet and having some "unprofitable" generation to avoid blackouts, paid for by the profits of the other generators.
-
I have real difficulty when Gubbermints pushing the green agenda are subsidizing electric vehicles yet not domestic installation of PV support for the grid that not only adds resilience but additional capacity to charge the darn things !
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
Depends on your definition of replacement... electric vehicles and heat pumps use less electrical energy to do the same job than the existing fossil fuel "solutions". A more realistic figure would be just under a doubling of electricity generation (not doubling of power/capacity!) if every single use of energy moved to electricity. Can it be done in a few years? no. 10 years? possibly with a big effort.
But that's assuming you have the existing pattern of fluctuating demand (daily/seasonal etc) which is not the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird. Existing plants are not all running with 90%+ utilization factors. Right now the price squeeze is from peak demand reliant on gas turbines where every generator must profit in isolation across all billing increments, while the other generators will take the same price and profit $$$$ on the side. A monopoly operator would be amortising the profit across the fleet and having some "unprofitable" generation to avoid blackouts, paid for by the profits of the other generators.
I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.
-
"Wholesale gas prices tumble as Europe prepares to intervene in energy markets"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets)
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas)
We'll have to see if this intervention produces an actual outcome, but it does seem to have calmed the market briefly.
Still even if prices drop to just 8-10x the 2019 high then it's very bad nonetheless. I think they need to get down to max 3-4x before the outcome is mild (limited recession, people able to keep heating on, etc.)
-
How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.
Here in NZ EV's are currently getting a fee ride as another form of subsidy fantasy whereas every other vehicle must contribute to the roading networks wear and tare in currently 2 ways.
Additional fuel taxes on all petrol sales whereas all diesel vehicles contribute to the roading network by way of a Road User charge, it being calculated on GVM (gross weight) and its # of axles and/or tyre configuration.
NZ RUC's are distance based and must be pre-purchased and displayed on the windscreen.
As diesel is the primary off road fuel all off road use does not contribute to the roading network, the benefit being one diesel fuel type is used for everything without the additional cost of fuel usage administration checks.
However pleasure pursuits such as boating and offroad activities get caught with the additional petrol taxes however there is a avenue to claim the road tax component back although most don't unless they are large petrol users.
-
It's a pragmatic statement. The problem for Ukraine is the there are Russian supporters in the country. Where did I say anything about surrendering? It just there's very little the West can do to help. Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.
In general I'm tired of fighting with russian propaganda, because we are in a state of a real war here (and I'm tired of pre-war internet wars). I went from russian electronic forums (since 2014-2015) to international ones (so did many ukrainians), because of two reasons: 1) I want for russians to cook in their own shit without me. 2) I'm tired of internet wars and tired of reading a russian imperial propaganda shit.
But I'll make some exclusion for you for a some short period of time.
'It's a pragmatic statement' - it is pragmatic to be biten by russia one-by-one, country-by-country? Haven't you learned a history of begining a WW2?
'there are Russian supporters in the country' - there are rusian supporters in almost any country. Ukraine just the closest one to the russia (so it has the most effect), but there are some russian suporters almost all over the Europe and all over the world - in Germany, France, UK, even in the USA. So what?? For example, Does USA have to give Alyaska 'back' to the russia? It could be pragmatic, otherwise a war may beging, or other 'inconvenience' and 'hard time'.
'It just there's very little the West can do to help.' - that is a classic russian 'We all are small people, and we can't do nothing'.
'Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.' - it is like I'm in a russian forum when I reading you. You spell exact 100% percent of a russian statements, all of them. You forget to add about America bombed Baghdad and so on.
-
the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
If you jump immediately to storage = public resource then that might be true, but that's your misleading definition/requirement.
People with cars want to drive them around, but they (on average) sit idle for 95% of the time. It does not need all that time to recharge them, the charging can be done at the convenience of supply. The energy needed is stored for use later. All that grumbling about negative electricity prices during peak solar production? EVs will soak it up if that is exposed to the consumer, they dont need to return anything to the grid to store the "excess" energy as they form a fairly predictable energy sink with peaky use. The clever bit will be lining up all the commercial interests so a user can just plug in and have it automatically happen.
If EVs are going to be using some large percentage of all energy (as some say is the barrier to their uptake) then they will be presenting an even larger percentage of storage to the grid, which solves many of the energy production issues.
-
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective. For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.
-
I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.
Banning ICE cars is absolutely stupid, at least it is on the insanely aggressive timeline that CA and now my state have pledged to do it. I did notice the law does allow plug-in hybrids though so I suspect we will see a large number of hybrids with a token plug-in feature tacked on that allows the battery to be topped off, and I doubt many people will use it.
Pure EVs are already extremely popular and they are growing fast. There is no need to mandate them, the free(ish) market is working as it is supposed to and people whose needs are met by an EV are choosing them when it is economically advantageous to do so. With a Tesla costing around $10 for 300 miles of range you don't even have to drive a huge number of miles for that to pay off, even at fuel prices of a few years ago. Even so, there are enough edge cases that trying to mandate pure EV is ridiculous. Tradesmen and such still need heavy duty trucks with large range. People that have horses and RVs need to be able to pull a big heavy trailer, sometimes hundreds of miles in a day. Huge numbers of people do not have these edge cases but enough do that ICE must remain a choice for the foreseeable future.
-
I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.
Banning ICE cars is absolutely stupid, at least it is on the insanely aggressive timeline that CA and now my state have pledged to do it. I did notice the law does allow plug-in hybrids though so I suspect we will see a large number of hybrids with a token plug-in feature tacked on that allows the battery to be topped off, and I doubt many people will use it.
Pure EVs are already extremely popular and they are growing fast. There is no need to mandate them, the free(ish) market is working as it is supposed to and people whose needs are met by an EV are choosing them when it is economically advantageous to do so. With a Tesla costing around $10 for 300 miles of range you don't even have to drive a huge number of miles for that to pay off, even at fuel prices of a few years ago. Even so, there are enough edge cases that trying to mandate pure EV is ridiculous. Tradesmen and such still need heavy duty trucks with large range. People that have horses and RVs need to be able to pull a big heavy trailer, sometimes hundreds of miles in a day. Huge numbers of people do not have these edge cases but enough do that ICE must remain a choice for the foreseeable future.
CA ? Madness when they produce 250000 barrels of crude/day.
Don't adults run that place either ?
-
They can be both adults and psychopaths.
-
Enjoy the coming "glorious MI6/WEF induced imperial" winter UK! Hope you have enough of firewood to charge your EV's with!! >:D
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation)
Back in WW2 folks converted their cars to Holz Gaz! Im looking forward to all EV's converted to holz gaz!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOA0CsN5UWU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOA0CsN5UWU)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXaoQ0k9Jlg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXaoQ0k9Jlg)
-
Banning ICE cars is absolutely stupid, at least it is on the insanely aggressive timeline that CA and now my state have pledged to do it. I did notice the law does allow plug-in hybrids though so I suspect we will see a large number of hybrids with a token plug-in feature tacked on that allows the battery to be topped off, and I doubt many people will use it.
Pure EVs are already extremely popular and they are growing fast. There is no need to mandate them, the free(ish) market is working as it is supposed to and people whose needs are met by an EV are choosing them when it is economically advantageous to do so. With a Tesla costing around $10 for 300 miles of range you don't even have to drive a huge number of miles for that to pay off, even at fuel prices of a few years ago. Even so, there are enough edge cases that trying to mandate pure EV is ridiculous. Tradesmen and such still need heavy duty trucks with large range. People that have horses and RVs need to be able to pull a big heavy trailer, sometimes hundreds of miles in a day. Huge numbers of people do not have these edge cases but enough do that ICE must remain a choice for the foreseeable future.
I don't think the requirement applies to commercial vehicles, and you already mentioned plug in hybrids as the solution for long distance.
-
I don't think the requirement applies to commercial vehicles, and you already mentioned plug in hybrids as the solution for long distance.
What is their definition of a commercial vehicle?
What about individuals that have things like campers, horse trailers and toy haulers? As far as I know there are currently no hybrid fullsized diesel pickup trucks. Of course it's possible that the definition of "plug in hybrid" is loose enough for a workaround but in that case the legislation is a bit of a joke.
-
To thinka century ago most large citys were using electric vehicles to get the masses around without range anxiety or having to carry heavy battery's
-
the case for electric vehicles as they can be supply responsive and provide the currently missing storage in the gird.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
If you jump immediately to storage = public resource then that might be true, but that's your misleading definition/requirement.
People with cars want to drive them around, but they (on average) sit idle for 95% of the time. It does not need all that time to recharge them, the charging can be done at the convenience of supply. The energy needed is stored for use later. All that grumbling about negative electricity prices during peak solar production? EVs will soak it up if that is exposed to the consumer, they dont need to return anything to the grid to store the "excess" energy as they form a fairly predictable energy sink with peaky use. The clever bit will be lining up all the commercial interests so a user can just plug in and have it automatically happen.
If EVs are going to be using some large percentage of all energy (as some say is the barrier to their uptake) then they will be presenting an even larger percentage of storage to the grid, which solves many of the energy production issues.
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective. For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.
FFS, you want an EV that cant store energy? better get a long extension lead....
Every practical EV stores energy, you know, for when its driving along the road.
The vast majority of EVs dont need to be charged during peak electricity demand (currently post work/dinner evening peak in most countries), they can be charged whenever power is cheap/plentiful in most instances and wait for it... store that energy until its needed.
-
"Wholesale gas prices tumble as Europe prepares to intervene in energy markets"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/wholesale-gas-prices-tumble-as-europe-prepares-to-intervene-in-energy-markets)
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas)
We'll have to see if this intervention produces an actual outcome, but it does seem to have calmed the market briefly.
Still even if prices drop to just 8-10x the 2019 high then it's very bad nonetheless. I think they need to get down to max 3-4x before the outcome is mild (limited recession, people able to keep heating on, etc.)
Yes, spot price for gas in Europe is easing lately, but ... psstt ... this is really what happened behind the curtain. >:D
Even this article below is behind paywall, you can have a glimpse just by reading the title, and this UK based FT (Financial Times) is a hardcore anti Russia news outlet btw, since cold war.
Source -> https://www.ft.com/content/1e20467a-5b53-42b7-ad89-49808f7e1780 (https://www.ft.com/content/1e20467a-5b53-42b7-ad89-49808f7e1780)
But to be able to decode the FT article further, this source below is US based (more aligned to pro right wing US) which is clearly pro-US, read here ...
Source -> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe)
Quote ...
Russia has surpassed Indonesia and the United States to become China’s fourth-largest supplier of LNG so far this year!
What was behind this bizarre surge in Russian LNG imports, analysts speculated? After all, while China imports over half of the natural gas it consumes, with around two-thirds in the form of LNG, demand this year had fallen sharply amid economic headwinds and widespread shutdowns. In other words, why the surge in Russian LNG when i) domestic demand is just not there and ii) at the expense of everyone else?
Well, we now know the answer: China has been quietly reselling that evil, tainted Russian LNG to the one place that desperately needs it more than anything. Europe... and of course, it is charging a kidney's worth of markups in the process.
Hilariously, it also means that instead of being dependent on Russia for gas, Europe is now becoming dependent on Beijing instead for its energy - which is still Russian gas, only this time imported from China - which makes a mockery of US geopolitical ambitions to defend a liberal international order with its own energy exports.
Worse, while Europe could buy Russian LNG for price X, it instead has to pay 2X, 3X or more, just to virtue signal to the world that it won't fund Putin's regime, when in reality is is paying extra to both Xi and to Putin, .... :-DD
Again, do not forget, the surge in gas price in Europe is not a spike like toilet paper's problem because of sudden hoarding, but the constant need is there, and Russia gas represent big chunks of it, and with sudden lost, no other countries have spare capacity to replace that, just plain simple truth.
-
To thinka century ago most large citys were using electric vehicles to get the masses around without range anxiety or having to carry heavy battery's
Things like trains ran more often and more reliably too! Its a change in what the public "demand" as their basic minimum living standard. Travelling to the other side of the city to see a friend for a social activity was once a significant decision/choice, now its a "basic right" and is seen as cheap and convenient. As above in this thread, once people heated a single room and survived ok, but now people are demanding they should be able to heat their entire house and someone else should subsidise/pay for that.
We had a period of (unsustainably) cheap energy, it was never going to last. Trying to subsidise people to continue their unproductive activities is sure disaster.
-
Source -> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe)
No kidding! :-DD
-
Source -> https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-aggressively-reselling-russian-gas-europe)
No kidding! :-DD
You will laugh even more if you do "smart" reading further at pro-Western news sites regarding India with sudden gigantic spike on buying oil from Russia, which was never happened since last year, which they distilled it into diesel or gasoline and sell it to Europe. :-DD
I'm just too lazy to post it here.
-
What about individuals that have things like campers, horse trailers and toy haulers? As far as I know there are currently no hybrid fullsized diesel pickup trucks. Of course it's possible that the definition of "plug in hybrid" is loose enough for a workaround but in that case the legislation is a bit of a joke.
Why would it need to be a diesel? Electric motors are great at providing torque. It would also make sense to develop a "powered trailer" with its own set of batteries and motor especially for a RV that's going to have the batteries anyways, such that any normal car would be able to tow it.
Things like trains ran more often and more reliably too! Its a change in what the public "demand" as their basic minimum living standard. Travelling to the other side of the city to see a friend for a social activity was once a significant decision/choice, now its a "basic right" and is seen as cheap and convenient. As above in this thread, once people heated a single room and survived ok, but now people are demanding they should be able to heat their entire house and someone else should subsidise/pay for that.
We had a period of (unsustainably) cheap energy, it was never going to last. Trying to subsidise people to continue their unproductive activities is sure disaster.
There needs to be incentives to vastly reduce energy use. Making energy pricing nonlinear/"progressive" would be one way to do that.
-
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective. For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.
They don't need to be grid storage, just dispatchable demand.
We already have charge points that give you the option: "I need 80% charge in my car by tomorrow. Charge whenever you can, as long as it's ready by 7 am" (and the power company sends a signal to the charger telling it to modulate current and turn on and off as there is excess renewable on the grid, or high proportion of nuclear/biomass.)
-
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
While I've seen numbers like 250% increase in electrical consumption (assuming 100% electric vehicles and 100% heat pumps for heating) for UK that has poorly insulated houses, this will probably vary a lot between countries.
E.g. in Finland, where we don't use gas and not much coal, and have properly insulated houses, we have already over 20% heat pumps in residential homes and a bit more electrical heating, which will of course lessen the demand when switched to heat pumps (ongoing as we speak). There is also a large part with biomass and biofuels, e.g. wood, pellets and to some extent biogas. These types would probably not switch to heat pumps. We already use electricity for cooking (never used gas here), so that won't change. The bigger impact here might be electric cars.
Finland has for many years had to import electricity, e.g. typically about 10% from Russia (which has now naturally stopped) and more from the other Nordic countries. It is expected that next year we will break even for the first time, due to a new nuclear reactor and increasing wind and solar installations (told recently by national grid CEO).
-
It's going to be much more important to properly insulate homes rather than increase generation.
Avg. gas consumption of 12000kWh per year for a house could be dropped to 3000kWh with good insulation. That then looks like 750kWh per year of consumption in a heat pump, and bonus, the heatpump can be much smaller and cheaper to install.
Part of the problem is a serious lack of tradespeople to do the work - we need to have apprentices and training courses for these rather than more people with degrees in art history.
-
Enjoy the coming "glorious MI6/WEF induced imperial" winter UK! Hope you have enough of firewood to charge your EV's with!! >:D
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation)
Back in WW2 folks converted their cars to Holz Gaz! Im looking forward to all EV's converted to holz gaz!
Anything and everything on zerohedge is driven by politics seen from one very biassed angle.
Please avoid introducing politics to this thread and the forum in general.
-
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective. For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.
They don't need to be grid storage, just dispatchable demand.
We already have charge points that give you the option: "I need 80% charge in my car by tomorrow. Charge whenever you can, as long as it's ready by 7 am" (and the power company sends a signal to the charger telling it to modulate current and turn on and off as there is excess renewable on the grid, or high proportion of nuclear/biomass.)
That is something else and IMHO very unlikely to happen because it means the electricity generation & distribution is falling short (as if you are living in a third world country). In the end you can't predict peak demand. Over here the trains are on strike so everybody who has a car, goes to work with a car. How to plan for that with a system that inherently isn't able to deal with peak demand?
Discharging an EV back into the grid however, is not a good idea because you will wear the battery which depreciates the value of your car. A sane person will want to be compensated for that monetary loss.
-
Enjoy the coming "glorious MI6/WEF induced imperial" winter UK! Hope you have enough of firewood to charge your EV's with!! >:D
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation)
Back in WW2 folks converted their cars to Holz Gaz! Im looking forward to all EV's converted to holz gaz!
Anything and everything on zerohedge is driven by politics seen from one very biassed angle.
And you know that after actually reading ZH. :)
ZH actually less biased then most MSM news , it even allow folks like your self to post articles there if you want to, you seams biased because the article mentions "UK".
Please avoid introducing politics to this thread and the forum in general.
Which is :bullshit: ofcourse and a personal attack which is your real intent , cant see you complain about lot of folks who even start political threads like this one and others (BravoV above)
referencing ZH articles?
Anyhow charging your EV in UK seams to be expensive in the upcoming future.
-
Hilariously, it also means that instead of being dependent on Russia for gas, Europe is now becoming dependent on Beijing instead for its energy - which is still Russian gas, only this time imported from China
Even if this is true - it is still ok, because you can't deal with all problems at ones. You deal with problems in series, one-after-another. It gives a time. First we get rid of russian gas dependency (actual and VERY HOT problem), after that we can move away from China gas dependency (that is not so hot problem). And China buys it for a much smaller price, so russia earns not too much.
For example, at the moment, Ukraine doesn't buy gas straight from russia several last years (3-4?), but buys the same gas from Europe. That totally changed gas situation for Ukraine (greatly soften and stabilized it) until russia started a large war against Ukraine and in reality against the whole West.
-
Part of the problem is a serious lack of tradespeople to do the work - we need to have apprentices and training courses for these rather than more people with degrees in art history.
People can't afford it either. Government should provide some mild pressure to do whole streets, with long term loans to pay off the difference with the subsidy.
One size fit most can probably be done a lot cheaper than all the custom work being done now. Depending on the walls either fill them with insulation, or 3D scan the facade for outer wall insulation and cut it into an easy to install jigsaw at the factory. Use reflective air cushion insulation below the floor (it does work, is cheap and doesn't have bad PR from VOC). Have installers bid for work for entire blocks to get costs down similar to fiber.
Isn't that unfair to the people who did it themselves some might ask, to which I would say I don't care.
-
Actually I care. The problem with subsidies is that they just increase the price. It would be much better if the subsidies where applied to buying the materials so people can also DIY. Earlier this year I asked for quotations to have the rear door + window of my home replaced. I got quotations ranging from 12k to 15k euro. If I buy the materials myself, they cost around 6k euro in total.
-
For running heat pumps and charging EVs most countries have to triple their generation of electric power. I don't think any country is able to do this in just a few years.
While I've seen numbers like 250% increase in electrical consumption (assuming 100% electric vehicles and 100% heat pumps for heating) for UK that has poorly insulated houses, this will probably vary a lot between countries.
Get your answers here:
https://www.iea.org/sankey/ (https://www.iea.org/sankey/)
world coverage complete with historic comparisons
-
The problem with subsidies is that they just increase the price.
The problem with consumers trying to get a competetive bid is information assymetry.
Government auctioning off million dollar orders can much better judge margins and market supply and scale up orders accordingly. Assuming they are competent and not corrupt.
-
Enjoy the coming "glorious MI6/WEF induced imperial" winter UK! Hope you have enough of firewood to charge your EV's with!! >:D
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fatigue-british-war-support-wanes-amid-energy-hyperinflation)
Back in WW2 folks converted their cars to Holz Gaz! Im looking forward to all EV's converted to holz gaz!
Anything and everything on zerohedge is driven by politics seen from one very biassed angle.
And you know that after actually reading ZH. :)
Yes. Precisely that.
ZH actually less biased then most MSM news , it even allow folks like your self to post articles there if you want to, you seams biased because the article mentions "UK".
Your using the keyword "MSM" is revealing.
Please avoid introducing politics to this thread and the forum in general.
Which is :bullshit: ofcourse and a personal attack which is your real intent , cant see you complain about lot of folks who even start political threads like this one and others (BravoV above)
referencing ZH articles?
That's another revealing statement.
Strawman arguments attacking other people's personality and intent is unimpressive.
-
Now calculate the price per kWh you'd need to receive from the power company to cover the wear on your precious battery... EVs as grid storage is the most stupidest idea ever. It simply isn't cost effective. For starters: EV batteries aren't made for grid storage purposes.
Solution: instead of V2G which requires more complex inverters within the car and as you say, wears out the battery, just implement on-demand suspension of charging (i.e., go to zero, not negative). Given the scale, this is almost as good as vehicle-to-grid, but without the downsides.
All you need is some control logic (and user interfaces) so that the driver has a guarantee they will have X km of range before YY:ZZ.
-
That is something else and IMHO very unlikely to happen because it means the electricity generation & distribution is falling short (as if you are living in a third world country). In the end you can't predict peak demand. Over here the trains are on strike so everybody who has a car, goes to work with a car. How to plan for that with a system that inherently isn't able to deal with peak demand?
It's already happening!
https://octopus.energy/intelligent-octopus/
These are not the only guys offering it.
Nothing about this signals failure of the grid, there are obviously better times to add more load like an EV to charge. In summer time, the UK regularly has days where wind is the only power source for hours at a time. If there's nothing to soak that demand up, it's wasted capacity.
As wind and solar become more and more dominant then the frequency of these days will increase.
I do agree vehicle to grid discharge is not a great idea right now (though as battery tech improves it may make more sense.) Vehicle to home for backup though, that's a *fantastic* idea.
-
Avg. gas consumption of 12000kWh per year for a house
Funnily enough - this seems to be a rough ballpark figure of heating energy spent anywhere. Houses in colder climates are just insulated better, because there is natural motivation to do so.
My house uses around 15MWh per year, and it's built in 1952 and energy renovated in 1982. Original insulation is sawdust + wood chip mix, 100mm in walls, and 300mm in ceiling and floor, plus walls have some wood fiber board for some extra insulation. In 1982, 50mm of mineral wool was added to outside walls.
Modern houses per current regulations use like 300mm of modern-day mineral wool in the walls, and 500mm or even 600mm in the attic. We have finally realized how important airtightness is, so newly build houses are actually pressure tested to prove absence of air leaks. As a result, modern houses consume very little heating energy, even given the cold climate. But we still see the magical number ~15MWh/year around, though, because people just build larger and larger houses, and as a result, are more and more in debt!
It seems to be some kind of magical constant, people can psychologically afford spending 10-25MWh/year for heating so that is what they do. If they live in warmer climate, they insulate very poorly, and get to that number. If they live in colder climate, they insulate better, only to get to the same number. If they want a bigger house, they will insulate even better.
What needs to change is the absolute value of this number, because energy is more expensive, a limited resource we have overused for decades. One way is to use heatpumps, for example, my 15MWh of heat comes from approx. 6MWh of electricity because of the heatpump. Another option is better insulation. And obviously - both.
Also the fact people used to live in 100m^2 houses with large families (say 4-5 kids), and now you suddenly need 250m^2 for no kids or 1-2 kids.
Combine all this knowledge and try to see if you could live in a 100m^2 house again, insulate it better, and use heatpump, and that 15MWh is down to 3-4MWh. A totally massive drop.
-
Avg. gas consumption of 12000kWh per year for a house
Funnily enough - this seems to be a rough ballpark figure of heating energy spent anywhere. Houses in colder climates are just insulated better, because there is natural motivation to do so.
Here too, electrical consumption about 15 MWh/year. House is 145 m^2.
Last year the heatpump used 4700 kWh electricity and produced 17600 kWh heat energy (heating 13600 kWh and hot water 4000 kWh).
-
It's going to be much more important to properly insulate homes rather than increase generation.
Proper insulation is a prerequisite for heat pumps. Of course it also helps to reduce gas and fuel oil usage for classic heating systems. Anyhow, it's expensive.
-
In normal times, 12000kWh per year of gas would cost about £400.
So if you could halve that you would save £200 per year.
Even if you assume a 10 year payback time, there's not a huge amount you can do to improve energy efficiency for £2,000. Most savings calculators state things like underfloor insulation costs £4,000 to install and saves you £67 per year, what's the point? People would rather go on holiday.
As for living in a smaller house? There's no reason you can't insulate a big house too, to the point where the losses are quite small. Besides, we spend so much time at home, it would be a disappointment to not have enough space to relax and do things that we want.
-
The problem with subsidies is that they just increase the price.
The problem with consumers trying to get a competetive bid is information assymetry.
It's part of the problem. But subsidies too. Over here we have program to promote heat pumps (subsidies up to 40% (was even 50% not long ago)). Besides the poor availability of heat pumps at the moment, the program keeps the prices high. There's no incentive or need for competition. I guess, there's no direct monetary loss for customers because of the high subsidies, but it's still tax money.
-
Proper insulation is a prerequisite for heat pumps.
Where is this meme coming from?
These things (heatpumps, insulation) are totally orthogonal.
Quite the opposite, (e.g. ground source) heatpumps are specifically being recommended here in old, poorly insulated buildings (with maybe some historical or sentimental value); of course, because poorly insulated houses consume more heat, there is more (absolute) potential for savings.
For example, a well insulated house needing 9MWh/year of heat, heatpump with COP=3 saves 6MWh/year of energy. A poorly insulated house needing 27MWh/year of heat, heatpump with COP=3 saves 18MWh/year of energy.
-
In normal times, 12000kWh per year of gas would cost about £400.
This is just absolutely, ridiculously cheap. You need to realize what kind of privilege this has been to you.
Consider Finland. Our "gas" has always been oil, oil heating systems have been hugely popular. "Normal time" cost (in 2010's pre-NWO and everything) for heating oil has been like 0.90EUR/liter i.e. 12000kWh would cost 1100EUR. And no one complained about it (except of course those who complain about everything).
-
Avg. gas consumption of 12000kWh per year for a house
Funnily enough - this seems to be a rough ballpark figure of heating energy spent anywhere.
Houses here actually come with an energy label. Like eg. the fridge, same colors and everything, goes from G to A++.
You are only allowed to sell the house if you have this.
F is about 380 kWh/sqm, A+ is 105 and A+++ is 50. We can calculate 80 for a small, 120 sqm for an average Dutch house.
I got label of A, which is 160 when I bought my home, now it's probably a bit better because I put solar panels on it. And it's time to replace the roof windows, from HR to HR++ or something.
I talked with Dutch people and they said that the house is built to handle the cold. And I was laughing at it, after I compared the joke of the isolation here to the standard that I'm used to.
So yeah. Rating of A would mean 19000 kwh/year. And that's a very good rating here, I see houses with rating of D and E on the market, already sold.
Funny stuff is, I used 50GJ last year for heating, which is 14000kWh (and 2000kWh for electricity), very much the same that you suggested.
Also, with the current prices, I was calculating an airco heatpump would be 50% cheaper than district heating.
-
Houses here actually come with an energy label. Like eg. the fridge, same colors and everything, goes from G to A++.
You are only allowed to sell the house if you have this.
F is about 380 kWh/sqm, A+ is 105 and A+++ is 50. We can calculate 80 for a small, 120 sqm for an average Dutch house.
I got label of A, which is 160 when I bought my home
And of course, here the calculation is somewhat more complicated - but playing around with one Excel calculator I could find, it seems 160 kWh/m^2/year (with fossil fuel multiplier 1.0) gives label of D.
And because this is already per consumed energy, it already takes the climate into account; we already need to apply more insulation given your standards, and then a lot more to meet our much stricter standards.
And this is the problem - Finns are, as always, required to do so much more than the others, and in addition we need to pay for Germany's cheap gas contracts. But it's pretty close to being game over, we have very little left and are on the brink of a national suicide.
OTOH, I don't complain about the requirement of insulation. It's the right thing to do. It would be nice if others insulated their homes, too, instead of buying Putin's fart gas, because we are the ones who have to sit next to Russia even if we don't use their gas.
-
It's part of the problem. But subsidies too. Over here we have program to promote heat pumps (subsidies up to 40% (was even 50% not long ago)). Besides the poor availability of heat pumps at the moment, the program keeps the prices high. There's no incentive or need for competition. I guess, there's no direct monetary loss for customers because of the high subsidies, but it's still tax money.
There are subsidies for heat pumps and high efficiency gas furnaces here too. The problem is they require installation by a licensed professional contractor in order to qualify for the subsidy. It is much cheaper to install the equipment myself and skip the subsidy than to hire some goober to charge me a fortune to mess up the job. The rare occasions when I have hired a contractor to do something I have never been totally satisfied with the result, very few take the pride in quality craftsmanship and attention to detail that I do.
-
UK homes have energy ratings too, from A to F if I recall correctly. Our home is a D currently. Adding solar panels and insulating it properly will get it up to B. It requires a huge amount of effort to get an older house to A, and is probably not worth doing.
The sad thing is new homes are being built with C rating, and this is the plan until 2035(!!), ours is 90 years old and it has only one lower rating, wtf?
-
UK homes have energy ratings too, from A to F if I recall correctly. Our home is a D currently. Adding solar panels and insulating it properly will get it up to B. It requires a huge amount of effort to get an older house to A, and is probably not worth doing.
The sad thing is new homes are being built with C rating, and this is the plan until 2035(!!), ours is 90 years old and it has only one lower rating, wtf?
The UK scheme also rates by energy cost, rather than energy input, so a home with a more expensive energy source can get a lower score even if it is better insulated.
Another weird artefact of the UK rating scheme is many new-build developers hit the minimum rating by means of adding some trivial amount of solar panels, just enough to scrape through and no more (see here https://goo.gl/maps/qqpsC5M4pH9XzyTEA (https://goo.gl/maps/qqpsC5M4pH9XzyTEA) as an example where most properties have 2 or 3 small panels as a box ticking exercise). These tiny panels then make it much harder for an owner to install a sensible-sized PV system because they're in the way and built into the roof.
-
That is something else and IMHO very unlikely to happen because it means the electricity generation & distribution is falling short (as if you are living in a third world country). In the end you can't predict peak demand. Over here the trains are on strike so everybody who has a car, goes to work with a car. How to plan for that with a system that inherently isn't able to deal with peak demand?
It's already happening!
https://octopus.energy/intelligent-octopus/
These are not the only guys offering it.
No, this is just optimisation for cost, not for optimising the load on the infrastructure. There are a lot of places where the grid just can't handle the amount of renewable energy being generated. So the electricity comes for free but there is no way to get it to the outlet where you need it.
The sad thing is new homes are being built with C rating, and this is the plan until 2035(!!), ours is 90 years old and it has only one lower rating, wtf?
That is insane! The additional costs to build a home with an A rating will be earned back quickly. I mean, how much does it cost extra to make the insulation a few cm thicker and install a ventilation system? My home is nearly 30 years old and it has an A rating (partly due to being on district heating though).
-
Proper insulation is a prerequisite for heat pumps.
Where is this meme coming from?
These things (heatpumps, insulation) are totally orthogonal.
Quite the opposite, (e.g. ground source) heatpumps are specifically being recommended here in old, poorly insulated buildings (with maybe some historical or sentimental value); of course, because poorly insulated houses consume more heat, there is more (absolute) potential for savings.
For example, a well insulated house needing 9MWh/year of heat, heatpump with COP=3 saves 6MWh/year of energy. A poorly insulated house needing 27MWh/year of heat, heatpump with COP=3 saves 18MWh/year of energy.
Of course you can argue that with any COP/efficiency better than simply burning gas or fuel oil you'll need to buy less energy. But why stopping there if adding insulation lowers that dramatically more? So you can pay for a proper insulation or have to buy more/larger heat pumps to get the heat power needed. Without insulation you'll also need a higher flow temperature to keep your home warm (limit of typical heat pumps is about 40-45°C). The next point is that all the additional required electricity has to be generated. This will not happen over night and we don't have fusion power plants yet. It's about the whole strategy!
-
No, this is just optimisation for cost, not for optimising the load on the infrastructure. There are a lot of places where the grid just can't handle the amount of renewable energy being generated. So the electricity comes for free but there is no way to get it to the outlet where you need it.
That tariff is flat price within the night period so is not a good example, but the recommended charger, the Ohme one, can optimise for minimum CO2/kWh independent of price or can optimise for minimum price (with either a fixed overnight rate like that one or a dynamic tariff with half-hourly pricing). It's default behaviour on a tariff like that with 6 hours of a cheap flat rate is to pick the lowest-CO2 hours within that 6 hour window provided the required charging doesn't need 6 hours at full power.
Optimising for price on a dynamic tariff ("agile octopus" or similar) approximates optimising for charging when the ratio of supply and demand is favourable.
-
Proper insulation is a prerequisite for heat pumps.
Where is this meme coming from?
These things (heatpumps, insulation) are totally orthogonal.
Quite the opposite, (e.g. ground source) heatpumps are specifically being recommended here in old, poorly insulated buildings (with maybe some historical or sentimental value); of course, because poorly insulated houses consume more heat, there is more (absolute) potential for savings.
For example, a well insulated house needing 9MWh/year of heat, heatpump with COP=3 saves 6MWh/year of energy. A poorly insulated house needing 27MWh/year of heat, heatpump with COP=3 saves 18MWh/year of energy.
Of course you can argue that with any COP/efficiency better than simply burning gas or fuel oil you'll need to buy less energy. But why stopping there if adding insulation lowers that dramatically more? So you can pay for a proper insulation or have to buy more/larger heat pumps to get the heat power needed. Without insulation you'll also need a higher flow temperature to keep your home warm (limit of typical heat pumps is about 40-45°C). The next point is that all the additional required electricity has to be generated. This will not happen over night and we don't have fusion power plants yet. It's about the whole strategy!
Yep. You have to take the physical limits into account. A natural gas pipe can bring an awfull lot of energy into a home compared to the electricity connection. You can't simply disconnect the gas and assume there is enough electricity available to heat a home. Adding insulation can not be done infinitely; at some point you will have to activiely control the moisture levels in a home as well which -for an older home- means massive construction work.
The Dutch consumer's organisation (non-profit organisation) recommends people to buy hybrid boilers which are both heatpump and gas burner. When it is really cold, the gas burner kicks in.
-
No, this is just optimisation for cost, not for optimising the load on the infrastructure. There are a lot of places where the grid just can't handle the amount of renewable energy being generated. So the electricity comes for free but there is no way to get it to the outlet where you need it.
That tariff is flat price within the night period so is not a good example, but the recommended charger, the Ohme one, can optimise for minimum CO2/kWh independent of price or can optimise for minimum price (with either a fixed overnight rate like that one or a dynamic tariff with half-hourly pricing). It's default behaviour on a tariff like that with 6 hours of a cheap flat rate is to pick the lowest-CO2 hours within that 6 hour window provided the required charging doesn't need 6 hours at full power.
Optimising for price on a dynamic tariff ("agile octopus" or similar) approximates optimising for charging when the ratio of supply and demand is favourable.
But it still doesn't help with preventing a grid or generating capacity overload which is what started the sub-thread. At some point people will want to have their EV charged enough to get to work or whatever destination they need to be at.
-
That is insane! The additional costs to build a home with an A rating will be earned back quickly. I mean, how much does it cost extra to make the insulation a few cm thicker and install a ventilation system? My home is nearly 30 years old and it has an A rating (partly due to being on district heating though).
Quite a lot more at current lumber prices, at least over here. Thicker insulation in the walls means thicker walls. Thicker walls means larger wall studs, larger studs means considerably higher lumber cost and you have to make the whole house larger in order to get the same interior space. People are also notoriously bad at long term thinking, they will balk at spending extra money up front even if it is cheaper over a period of a few years.
-
The additional costs to build a home with an A rating will be earned back quickly. I
Not by the builder though,higher material cost,higher labour cost and longer build time all either eat into there profit,or make there houses look more expensive compared to the competition.
Avg. gas consumption of 12000kWh per year for a house
A big fat zero here. Electricity for everything. Annual average around 4120 Kw ,or around 100kw/M2,yea its a small flat.
-
But it still doesn't help with preventing a grid or generating capacity overload which is what started the sub-thread. At some point people will want to have their EV charged enough to get to work or whatever destination they need to be at.
It could, because the charging power could be reduced to say 4kW instead of 7kW.
As long as it's charged by 7.30am, for instance, you don't care how it got there, just that it's done on time.
Also, the National Grid here is currently building another 400kV line from Scotland to the North of England as the current constraint on renewable energy there is the export over the HV lines.
-
But it still doesn't help with preventing a grid or generating capacity overload which is what started the sub-thread. At some point people will want to have their EV charged enough to get to work or whatever destination they need to be at.
It could, because the charging power could be reduced to say 4kW instead of 7kW.
As long as it's charged by 7.30am, for instance, you don't care how it got there, just that it's done on time.
That is the problem right there, with insufficient grid capacity, it can't be guaranteed that your car will be charged to the requested level! Ergo, reducing charging power fixed or dynamically doesn't solve inherent grid capacity problems.
-
It's a pragmatic statement. The problem for Ukraine is the there are Russian supporters in the country. Where did I say anything about surrendering? It just there's very little the West can do to help. Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.
In general I'm tired of fighting with russian propaganda, because we are in a state of a real war here (and I'm tired of pre-war internet wars). I went from russian electronic forums (since 2014-2015) to international ones (so did many ukrainians), because of two reasons: 1) I want for russians to cook in their own shit without me. 2) I'm tired of internet wars and tired of reading a russian imperial propaganda shit.
But I'll make some exclusion for you for a some short period of time.
'It's a pragmatic statement' - it is pragmatic to be biten by russia one-by-one, country-by-country? Haven't you learned a history of begining a WW2?
'there are Russian supporters in the country' - there are rusian supporters in almost any country. Ukraine just the closest one to the russia (so it has the most effect), but there are some russian suporters almost all over the Europe and all over the world - in Germany, France, UK, even in the USA. So what?? For example, Does USA have to give Alyaska 'back' to the russia? It could be pragmatic, otherwise a war may beging, or other 'inconvenience' and 'hard time'.
'It just there's very little the West can do to help.' - that is a classic russian 'We all are small people, and we can't do nothing'.
'Besides, there are plenty of other wars gong on around the world and no one seems to give a toss. It's just the harsh reality of the situation.' - it is like I'm in a russian forum when I reading you. You spell exact 100% percent of a russian statements, all of them. You forget to add about America bombed Baghdad and so on.
Propaganda is everywhere and I'm sick of it. I honestly don't know what to believe half the time. Over the last two and a half years, things which were initially dismissed as conspiracy theories have later on touted as plausible by the mainstream media. I accept war is a special case and I won't comment on it again, other than to say what I see in the news doesn't make sense, considering my experience of travelling to Ukraine, interacting with the people there and recent history. The best propaganda always has an element of truth, which is exaggerated out of proportion.
As far as energy is concerned. We live in a global market. Not every country shares the same values and some will be at war, yet trade must continue, otherwise poverty all over the world will increase.
-
That is the problem right there, with insufficient grid capacity, it can't be guaranteed that your car will be charged to the requested level! Ergo, reducing charging power fixed or dynamically doesn't solve inherent grid capacity problems.
I don't follow your logic at all.
Day ahead demand is quite easy to predict. It's based on weather (cold days = use more because inside more, electric heating/heatpumps, etc.) and live events (TV shows, football matches and so on - the so called "TV pickup" for the UK, see below) and a few other factors. You can certainly forecast it to within a gigawatt. Almost all electricity is sold day-ahead, this is a robust and well tested market.
The benefit of EVs here is that they form dispatchable demand - if they're plugged in at 8pm and need say 20kWh by 7.30am, then it's now up to the energy provider to sell that into the EV. If it turns out there's more than enough, they'll probably stay at 7kW and finish in a couple of hours. If it's a cold winter's night and turbines are spinning slowly, then they might cut it down to 3kW. Doing that on the grid scale with say 1 million cars would allow you to control 3-7GW of load. It's an incredible amount of control to have. Don't forget the demand can be phased on too. So switch 10k cars on at a time every minute or two, allowing any power plants to come up to power slowly, and reducing frequency stability needs. If there's a sudden frequency drop - say a HV line goes down - then you can shed gigawatts at once. As long as the issue is fixed promptly, that won't jeopardise the completion of the charge.
Of course, it's possible to conceive a situation where e.g. an overnight power cut happens and leaves people without charge, but no system is perfect. Petrol stations can run short of fuel too. You can plan for such an eventuality by having extra charge than the strict minimum in your battery, e.g. charge to 80% every night, rather than 40%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slDAvewWfrA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slDAvewWfrA)
-
Reality check: extortionate european gas prices mean the door is opening wide for the far right to embrace the lessons of european history.
-
Reality check: extortionate european gas prices mean the door is opening wide for the far right to embrace the lessons of european history.
Well there's the real far-right and then there are groups labelled as far-right by those who dislike them, especially the establishment.
Yes, high energy prices are another thing contributing to the destruction of this country. I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.
Banning ICE cars is absolutely stupid, at least it is on the insanely aggressive timeline that CA and now my state have pledged to do it. I did notice the law does allow plug-in hybrids though so I suspect we will see a large number of hybrids with a token plug-in feature tacked on that allows the battery to be topped off, and I doubt many people will use it.
Pure EVs are already extremely popular and they are growing fast. There is no need to mandate them, the free(ish) market is working as it is supposed to and people whose needs are met by an EV are choosing them when it is economically advantageous to do so. With a Tesla costing around $10 for 300 miles of range you don't even have to drive a huge number of miles for that to pay off, even at fuel prices of a few years ago. Even so, there are enough edge cases that trying to mandate pure EV is ridiculous. Tradesmen and such still need heavy duty trucks with large range. People that have horses and RVs need to be able to pull a big heavy trailer, sometimes hundreds of miles in a day. Huge numbers of people do not have these edge cases but enough do that ICE must remain a choice for the foreseeable future.
Our so-called Conservative government is going to ban petrol cars in 2030. Less than 8 years from now. It's mental. Poor people won't be able to afford the increased prices of second-hand petrol and diesel cars. It's completely insane and unnecessary. EV sales will eventually overtake ICE cars and replace them at a pace people can cope with.
https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/ (https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/)
-
Yep. You have to take the physical limits into account. A natural gas pipe can bring an awfull lot of energy into a home compared to the electricity connection. You can't simply disconnect the gas and assume there is enough electricity available to heat a home. Adding insulation can not be done infinitely; at some point you will have to activiely control the moisture levels in a home as well which -for an older home- means massive construction work.
The Dutch consumer's organisation (non-profit organisation) recommends people to buy hybrid boilers which are both heatpump and gas burner. When it is really cold, the gas burner kicks in.
They were renovating small block of flats in Switzerland by adding 30cm styrofoam isolation on the outside.
In colder climates, the usual way to place the bricks is one layer of up to 45 cm thick bricks with built in air channels. The brick alone has a heat transfer coefficient of 0.14 W/mK unlike the usual housing here is 1W/mK.
-
Reality check: extortionate european gas prices mean the door is opening wide for the far right to embrace the lessons of european history.
Well there's the real far-right and then there are groups labelled as far-right by those who dislike them, especially the establishment
When only working class/blue collar workers struggle against the economic tide, the establishment dismisses them as lazy, unskilled or just criminal. And no one else cares because they brought their own misfortune on themselves. But when the educated, tax paying, middle class struggles, the political class has a real problem. If people perceive their hard earned living standards as falling/failing, they will look for their political leaders to show leadership. And that's not what the established political class ever does. Enter the anti establishment Donald Trumps.
What we are seeing through these extortionate market energy prices is an opportunistic wealth raid. A wealth raid on every person, business and organisation across europe by a tiny minority who are manipulating and exploiting their monopoly positions. Ask yourself, where EXACTLY does my money, my income, my savings, my wealth, end up? Certainly not added to your standard of living.
-
Our so-called Conservative government is going to ban petrol cars in 2030. Less than 8 years from now. It's mental.
It is, especially when these policies were dreamed up a few years back and the events of 2022 make them instantly outdated however the purists will be happy when we only have horses again for transport and there'll employment for the masses shoveling horse shit from the roads.
-
Our so-called Conservative government is going to ban petrol cars in 2030. Less than 8 years from now. It's mental. Poor people won't be able to afford the increased prices of second-hand petrol and diesel cars. It's completely insane and unnecessary. EV sales will eventually overtake ICE cars and replace them at a pace people can cope with.
https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/ (https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/)
Ban the sale of NEW petrol cars, you fail to note. You will still be able to buy a second hand one. You will still be able to drive one. And with the average life of a car exceeding 15 years, there will be ICE vehicles on the road until 2045, and probably beyond 2050.
I think it's a good policy, we need to stop producing ICE as soon as practical. If you really want to hold on to petrol, I'm sure there will be plenty of cheap second-hand examples going into 2030.
-
Ban the sale of NEW petrol cars, you fail to note. You will still be able to buy a second hand one. You will still be able to drive one. And with the average life of a car exceeding 15 years, there will be ICE vehicles on the road until 2045, and probably beyond 2050.
You think ?
A good buddy regularly drives his 1932 Model A here in NZ and for the occasional several hour trip to meet up with like minded enthusiasts at Model A rallies. Pretty darn good for a 90 year old passenger vehicle to still get a MOT and be used regularly.
-
Reality check: extortionate european gas prices mean the door is opening wide for the far right to embrace the lessons of european history.
Well there's the real far-right and then there are groups labelled as far-right by those who dislike them, especially the establishment.
Yes, high energy prices are another thing contributing to the destruction of this country. I disagree with banning ICU cars though. People will gradually transition to EVs as they get cheaper and the cost savings become more apparent.
If EV batteries are going to be used to balance the grid, then it's only fair the owners should be compensated for the additional wear on the battery. The meter connected to the car should work the same in both directions.
How EVs are going to be taxed is another area of controversy. One idea is to include a tracker so they known how far you've gone and on which roads, but that's seen as a privacy issue by many. I'd support reading the odometer every year, when the car gets its MoT and applying the tax accordingly.
Banning ICE cars is absolutely stupid, at least it is on the insanely aggressive timeline that CA and now my state have pledged to do it. I did notice the law does allow plug-in hybrids though so I suspect we will see a large number of hybrids with a token plug-in feature tacked on that allows the battery to be topped off, and I doubt many people will use it.
Pure EVs are already extremely popular and they are growing fast. There is no need to mandate them, the free(ish) market is working as it is supposed to and people whose needs are met by an EV are choosing them when it is economically advantageous to do so. With a Tesla costing around $10 for 300 miles of range you don't even have to drive a huge number of miles for that to pay off, even at fuel prices of a few years ago. Even so, there are enough edge cases that trying to mandate pure EV is ridiculous. Tradesmen and such still need heavy duty trucks with large range. People that have horses and RVs need to be able to pull a big heavy trailer, sometimes hundreds of miles in a day. Huge numbers of people do not have these edge cases but enough do that ICE must remain a choice for the foreseeable future.
Our so-called Conservative government is going to ban petrol cars in 2030. Less than 8 years from now. It's mental. Poor people won't be able to afford the increased prices of second-hand petrol and diesel cars. It's completely insane and unnecessary. EV sales will eventually overtake ICE cars and replace them at a pace people can cope with.
https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/ (https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/)
Yeah. Nobody was willing to believe there was such a thing as an horrendous 2030 agenda. There is, and it's unfolding. Sure one may keep saying loudly that it's just a conspirationist fantasy, but it's unfolding right in front of our eyes and this is no theory.
https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda (https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda)
https://europa.eu/newsroom/events/2030-agenda-%E2%80%93-european-union-committed-sustainable-development-globally (https://europa.eu/newsroom/events/2030-agenda-%E2%80%93-european-union-committed-sustainable-development-globally)
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/10/future-predictions-what-if-get-things-right-visions-for-2030/ (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/10/future-predictions-what-if-get-things-right-visions-for-2030/)
-
Ban the sale of NEW petrol cars, you fail to note. You will still be able to buy a second hand one. You will still be able to drive one. And with the average life of a car exceeding 15 years, there will be ICE vehicles on the road until 2045, and probably beyond 2050.
I think it's a good policy, we need to stop producing ICE as soon as practical. If you really want to hold on to petrol, I'm sure there will be plenty of cheap second-hand examples going into 2030.
I was well aware that the ban is on new cars, but what do you think will happen to prices on used cars once that ban takes effect? He did not fail to note it, he pointed out exactly that. They are already sky high, many used car values have doubled in the past 2-3 years. There needs to be a critical mass of ICE cars on the road in order for parts, maintenance and fuel supply lines to be viable. I'm a proponent of EVs but we are a LONG way off from them being viable for everybody.
I absolutely will not ever support bans on making any kind of product, ever. Tax less efficient stuff if you must but don't ban it, let the free market decide. EVs are already catching on like crazy, we don't need mandates.
-
What we are seeing through these extortionate market energy prices is an opportunistic wealth raid. A wealth raid on every person, business and organisation across europe by a tiny minority who are manipulating and exploiting their monopoly positions. Ask yourself, where EXACTLY does my money, my income, my savings, my wealth, end up? Certainly not added to your standard of living.
I'm not sure what 'a tiny minority' do you mean? The main reason energy prices rised so high is a war started in the Europe by russia. This war is not only against a Ukraine, energy war it is against all the Europe (if you haven't seen it). Russia itself is cutting gas supply to EU much faster then Europe countries fasten the belt with a gas consumption. There are tonnes of russian comments in the internet where russians want the whole EU to freeze in the winter (but not only Ukraine to freeze w/o russian gas). The whole Europe wasn't ready for such a large war (in all spheres) so we see consequences here. The Ukraine struggles with it's lives, the EU struggles economically.
-
Proper insulation is a prerequisite for heat pumps.
Where is this meme coming from?
These things (heatpumps, insulation) are totally orthogonal.
Quite the opposite, (e.g. ground source) heatpumps are specifically being recommended here in old, poorly insulated buildings (with maybe some historical or sentimental value); of course, because poorly insulated houses consume more heat, there is more (absolute) potential for savings.
For example, a well insulated house needing 9MWh/year of heat, heatpump with COP=3 saves 6MWh/year of energy. A poorly insulated house needing 27MWh/year of heat, heatpump with COP=3 saves 18MWh/year of energy.
Of course you can argue that with any COP/efficiency better than simply burning gas or fuel oil you'll need to buy less energy. But why stopping there if adding insulation lowers that dramatically more? So you can pay for a proper insulation or have to buy more/larger heat pumps to get the heat power needed. Without insulation you'll also need a higher flow temperature to keep your home warm (limit of typical heat pumps is about 40-45°C). The next point is that all the additional required electricity has to be generated. This will not happen over night and we don't have fusion power plants yet. It's about the whole strategy!
High distribution temperature is a problem of its own, it can be fixed by installing larger radiators or fan coil units, but if and when this is too costly, then just use air-to-air heatpumps which completely sidestep the issue.
Insulation is only an indirect factor here, because distribution temperature is basically defined by the ratio between insulation and radiator size. Thus, there is some synergy: improving insulation reduces distribution temperature even without increasing radiator size.
And as I said, you should be really doing both: fixing insulation and installing heatpumps. But neither is a prerequisite to other, and fixing these things work in any order.
Sometimes adding insulation is a very high cost operation, while a simple air-source heatpump can be ordered and installed in matter of hours and only 1500EUR spent. Or install two-three while at it.
But yes, longer term it makes no sense not to insulate new buildings properly, and also it makes no sense not to insulate old houses whenever doing some other renovations that enable easy addition of insulation.
And of course, always pick the low hanging fruits. In many buildings, attics are free, accessible space where ceiling insulation can be added in matter of hours.
Decision chart:
Get a heatpump:
Have hydronic heat distribution and want to keep using it for heating solely?
-> low distribution temperature (40-45degC during coldest times)?
-> yes: air-to-water heatpump
-> no: radiator upgrade plus air-to-water heatpump
-> no moneyz to do that?
-> see below
Don't have hydronic heat distribution at all.
Willing to retrofit it?
-> yes: retrofit large radiators / fan coil units / underfloow heating, plus air-to-water heatpump
-> no moneyz to do that?
-> see below
-> no: see below
"See below":
Install air-to-air heatpumps, one for each larger room, as many as you can easily afford. Existing heating system (maybe natural gas with hydronic distribution) remains in use, thermostats adjusted low enough so that radiators stay off in heatpump-heated rooms under normal conditions.
-
They were renovating small block of flats in Switzerland by adding 30cm styrofoam isolation on the outside.
I'm wondering how well this works, because generally vapor tight materials should go in one layer closest to the inside walls and coming out, rest should be vapor-passing, but I guess someone has proved by calculation that the styrofoam has low enough water vapor resistance (contrary to common misbelief, styrofoam is not nearly as vapor tight as plastic vapor barrier films or polyurethane sheeting).
Fire safety is a problem with styrofoam as shown in some spectacular cases in UK.
Here, the most common insulation material added outside is mineral wool, either glass or rock wool. These materials work outside pretty well because they let water vapor through and are also fire safe. The wool sheets added on the outside have an air-tight (but vapor-passing) surface coating (e.g. some moisture tolerant bitumen paper, or see Housewrap) because having wind blow through the wools would render them pretty much useless. But maybe styrofoam is cheaper. Thermal conductivity is roughly the same, something like 35mW/mK.
-
They were renovating small block of flats in Switzerland by adding 30cm styrofoam isolation on the outside.
I'm wondering how well this works, because generally vapor tight materials should go in one layer closest to the inside walls and coming out, rest should be vapor-passing, but I guess someone has proved by calculation that the styrofoam has low enough water vapor resistance (contrary to common misbelief, styrofoam is not nearly as vapor tight as plastic vapor barrier films or polyurethane sheeting).
Fire safety is a problem with styrofoam as shown in some spectacular cases in UK.
Here, the most common insulation material added outside is mineral wool, either glass or rock wool. These materials work outside pretty well because they let water vapor through and are also fire safe. The wool sheets added on the outside have an air-tight (but vapor-passing) surface coating (e.g. some moisture tolerant bitumen paper, or see Housewrap) because having wind blow through the wools would render them pretty much useless. But maybe styrofoam is cheaper. Thermal conductivity is roughly the same, something like 35mW/mK.
It's been the standard way of isolating new built houses or refurbishing houses all across East Europe. There is usually not two layers of bricks, for a long time the bricks are engineering bricks, with air channels, since a long time. Isolation goes on the outside, about 30-50 cm from the ground.
I've seen moisture issues, usually near bathrooms, that is easily solved with ventilation. Otherwise, dehumidifiers.
But that might not work well here, since the ground moves a lot more. Honestly, I'm not sure it's not my area of expertise.
And of course you end up with a house that looks different than the usual houses here.
(https://www.wienerberger.hu/content/dam/wienerberger/hungary/marketing/photography/productshots/wall/single-product/Porotherm%2038%20N%2BF%20brick.psd.imgTransformer/crop_1to1/md-2/1584099439354/Porotherm%2038%20N%2BF%20brick.jpg)
-
Those bricks are intended for inner walls only! You can't use these for outside walls, read the datasheet. Last year I have looked into these bricks as a light weight solution to upgrade my shed but the specs say these aren't suitable for outside walls.
-
Those bricks are intended for inner walls only! You can't use these for outside walls, read the datasheet. Last year I have looked into these bricks as a light weight solution to upgrade my shed but the specs say these aren't suitable for outside walls.
https://www.wienerberger.hu/termekek/porotherm-falazat/Falazoelemek/porotherm-38-n_f-tegla.html
(https://www.wienerberger.hu/termekek/porotherm-falazat/Falazoelemek/porotherm-38-n_f-tegla.html)
Egy igazán népszerű, klasszikus kerámia tégla, mely sokrétűen felhasználható. Egyaránt alkalmazható külső teherhordó fal, vagy válaszfal építésére.
"A really popular, classic ceramic brick that can be used in many ways. It can be used equally for the construction of external load-bearing walls or partitions."
Might be a fluke in the Dutch knowledge, like that other misinformation, you can only use heatpumps if your house is well isolated.
The other advancement that I saw was extremely thin layers of mortar, like 1mm. It requires the bricks to be sanded down accurately.
-
Might be a fluke in the Dutch knowledge, like that other misinformation, you can only use heatpumps if your house is well isolated.
You can heat your non-insulated home also with heat pumps, but you'll waste a lot of electric power. It's the same for any other energy source. Despite this forum being about electronics some people think that electric power simply comes out of the wall socket. Here's a question for you: how does that power get into the wall socket?
-
Might be a fluke in the Dutch knowledge, like that other misinformation, you can only use heatpumps if your house is well isolated.
You can heat your non-insulated home also with heat pumps, but you'll waste a lot of electric power. It's the same for any other energy source. Despite this forum being about electronics some people think that electric power simply comes out of the wall socket. Here's a question for you: how does that power get into the wall socket?
I have a guy who fills it up with a bucket of electricity every few months.
Those bricks are intended for inner walls only! You can't use these for outside walls, read the datasheet. Last year I have looked into these bricks as a light weight solution to upgrade my shed but the specs say these aren't suitable for outside walls.
The plot thickens, because the same company I linked sells bricks here. And you don't have the same series available here, only the old school solid bricks. I'm starting to feel there is a building code which forces us here to build poorly isolated houses, stuck with centuries old technology.
-
I've seen moisture issues, usually near bathrooms, that is easily solved with ventilation.
With bathrooms, there is no excuse not to do them properly.
This is, bathrooms just absolutely need seamless vapor barriers inside. When you do that, no humidity enters the structures, so any moisture remains a surface problem, which is easily revealed. That surface moisture is indeed solved with enough ventilation (and/or, dehumidifiers).
Whenever the bathroom leaks humid air into the structures, it's Game Over for the structures. Of course even then ventilation helps to reduce the issue, but it's a slippery slope. The point is, it is not fruitful to discuss if adding extra insulation on the outside makes already bad situation possibly a tiny bit worse.
Good thing about adding vapor-passing insulation (such as mineral wool, then air barrier, then a ventilation gap, then outer surface) on the outside is, it rarely makes anything worse. Even if the original structures have problems, they will be at higher temperatures after the retrofit, and spend less time with dew point inside. Optimally though, original vapor barriers should be fixed / new vapor barriers added, but that is not always an option due to cost of renovating everything.
It is also worth remembering that if the original structure has ever had problems, the mold inside keeps spewing toxins even if the dewing conditions are removed, for decades. Damaged materials should always be replaced.
Vapor tight materials on the outside are a huge risk, of course.
-
Our so-called Conservative government is going to ban petrol cars in 2030. Less than 8 years from now.
2050 is net zero date, mean lifetime of passenger cars is around 20 years. You think the peons have it bad, wait till you start to hear professionals screaming when government finally stops listening them and finalizes the date for the SF6 ban, pros are also pros at coming up with excuses. It will be an endless litany, which can only be overcome by ignoring it and using governments monopoly on violence to make them.
-
I'm wondering how well this works
As long as the wall can't rot, concrete or brick, what does exterior insulation matter? Any liquid water will accumulate at the outside of the original wall and just follow gravity, same as the rain which would have hit it. It's more a question of drainage.
-
As long as the wall can't rot, concrete or brick
I don't think this classical assumption is safe to do. After all, we do have a real indoor air quality epidemic here in public buildings, especially schools built starting from 1970's. These are all concrete and brick. No one has been able to find conclusive evidence what exactly is wrong, but clearly some very nasty microbes can live in concrete or brick, even if the amount of organic material for them to consume is orders of magnitude smaller than in wood structures. Chemical emissions from plastic flooring materials, released by chemical reactions triggered by moisture (not present during qualification testing of the materials) is also suspected.
Any liquid water will accumulate at the outside of the original wall and just follow gravity, same as the rain which would have hit it. It's more a question of drainage.
Yes, with enough insulation added, the dew point could potentially move out of the original wall, into the new insulation, and it could theoretically be built with insulation materials designed to drain any condensate, like the Swedish innovation Isodrän (which is designed to be used in underground walls, but the same idea). Plain old mineral wool holds the water in tiny droplets and gravity can't do the job until the material is completely damp. So while possible, draining is not trivial. Best we can usually do is to minimize the amount of water getting into the structure, and then let whatever gets there anyway dry by evaporation. These goals are normally achieved by stopping water vapor from entering from the side which on average has more absolute humidity (i.e., indoors), and letting the structure pass any humidity on the side which on average has less absolute humidity (outside). Rain is best stopped, by far, with a simple physical gap (ventilation gap), the only downsides being requiring some space for that gap (maybe 2cm), and any outer layers after that gap not contributing to thermal insulation of the building.
In very hot and humid climates where cooling dominates over heating, these roles are of course swapped, as inside air is cool and dry, and if vapor barrier is used at all, it should be on the outside. But I don't know enough about how this is dealt with in such climates.
-
Sometimes adding insulation is a very high cost operation, while a simple air-source heatpump can be ordered and installed in matter of hours and only 1500EUR spent. Or install two-three while at it.
Wow, are they really that cheap over there? My friend was quoted over $7500 to install a 0.9 ton ductless mini split heat pump, I installed it for him and I think it cost about $1700 at the time for the equipment and materials. A central heat pump for a forced air system runs around $12k+ with professional installation.
-
Sometimes adding insulation is a very high cost operation, while a simple air-source heatpump can be ordered and installed in matter of hours and only 1500EUR spent. Or install two-three while at it.
Wow, are they really that cheap over there? My friend was quoted over $7500 to install a 0.9 ton ductless mini split heat pump, I installed it for him and I think it cost about $1700 at the time for the equipment and materials. A central heat pump for a forced air system runs around $12k+ with professional installation.
I am are talking about usual split-type room air conditioners designed to cool and heat (working down to around -20degC ambient). I am sure they are available to you with similar prices or less. The thing invented in Japan in 1980's, and found everywhere, especially in Asia. Something like 2.5kW nominal output power, input rating around 700W. Inverter machines for the last 10-15 years.
You must be thinking about something else.
For example, typical price in Japan is around $300 and installation like $200. Here, they now go for 700-800 EUR for basic models and 1000-1300EUR for the installation, and I call that total robbery. It has doubled in a few years.
-
A central heat pump for a forced air system runs around $12k+ with professional installation.
This seems more a question of inertia combined with labor shortages. The cooling industry has massive size and low margins, that disappears when the direction of the refrigerant gets reversed, but not for any fundamental reason. Heatpump central air with a refrigerant loop to the duct heat exchanger should be as cheap as cooling was a year ago, eventually it will be.
-
Sometimes adding insulation is a very high cost operation, while a simple air-source heatpump can be ordered and installed in matter of hours and only 1500EUR spent. Or install two-three while at it.
Wow, are they really that cheap over there? My friend was quoted over $7500 to install a 0.9 ton ductless mini split heat pump, I installed it for him and I think it cost about $1700 at the time for the equipment and materials. A central heat pump for a forced air system runs around $12k+ with professional installation.
I am are talking about usual split-type room air conditioners designed to cool and heat (working down to around -20degC ambient). I am sure they are available to you with similar prices or less. The thing invented in Japan in 1980's, and found everywhere, especially in Asia. Something like 2.5kW nominal output power, input rating around 700W. Inverter machines for the last 10-15 years.
You must be thinking about something else.
For example, typical price in Japan is around $300 and installation like $200. Here, they now go for 700-800 EUR for basic models and 1000-1300EUR for the installation, and I call that total robbery. It has doubled in a few years.
I think we're talking about the same thing, these things: https://hvacdirect.com/ductless-mini-splits/single-zone-ductless-mini-splits.html
A company that installs them will typically mark up the equipment about double, and charge a minimum of a couple thousand dollars to come out and install it. I hate the HVAC industry, they lobby very hard to make it difficult for anyone that is not a member of their little club to touch the stuff.
-
In the US the F-gas implementation seems pretty benign to me, 50$ for a remote exam and you're certified to handle.
Becoming certified for working with F-gasses takes 100x more here.
-
A central heat pump for a forced air system runs around $12k+ with professional installation.
This seems more a question of inertia combined with labor shortages. The cooling industry has massive size and low margins, that disappears when the direction of the refrigerant gets reversed, but not for any fundamental reason. Heatpump central air with a refrigerant loop to the duct heat exchanger should be as cheap as cooling was a year ago, eventually it will be.
A heat pump isn't THAT much more expensive. About 12 years ago my friend had a 3 ton central heat pump installed and that was over $10k. A year ago another friend got a quote for a 2 ton central air conditioner and it was $5200 on top of what she was already paying to have a new furnace installed. Once you are having the furnace replaced that is about 80% of the labor needed to install both furnace and AC, so to just have AC installed probably would have been close to $10k. I think it is just the state of the HVAC industry in North America, it is rife with protectionism, there are a couple of major HVAC forums and they both totally ban all discussion of DIY work, advice, and prices. Almost all traditional supply houses will flatly refuse to sell to anyone who is not a licensed HVAC contractor, they won't even sell you simple repair parts or tools. They do it in order to not piss off their contractor customers, it's a racket.
-
In the US the F-gas implementation seems pretty benign to me, 50$ for a remote exam and you're certified to handle.
Becoming certified for working with F-gasses takes 100x more here.
That's exactly what I did close to 20 years ago. Technically I am not supposed to work on equipment as large as central heat pumps and AC though, there are different classes of certification to work on different sized systems, and only the most basic one can be done online. That basic certification enables you to purchase refrigerant legally though and that's all you really need. The same principals apply no matter how large or small the system.
-
I think we're talking about the same thing, these things: https://hvacdirect.com/ductless-mini-splits/single-zone-ductless-mini-splits.html
A company that installs them will typically mark up the equipment about double, and charge a minimum of a couple thousand dollars to come out and install it. I hate the HVAC industry, they lobby very hard to make it difficult for anyone that is not a member of their little club to touch the stuff.
Yes. I am quite surprised. I thought the prices were disastrous here.
We all hope it's getting better. The HVAC trade union mafia has lobbied for decades to prevent the proliferation of environmentally friendly refrigerants, because only the high CO2 equivalent of the currently used F gases keeps them in business, because the legislator can't let "anyone" install these things. As a result, True Professionals^tm let the damaging gasses in the environment anyway, and consumer pays for this. (Although if the story about a simple $50 exam is true, then it's more like a mental barrier only in the U.S. It's lot more demanding here, the biggest problem is the required work time in a certified company.)
But this is all changing. Propane is really coming this time. Small appliances like fridges have already transitioned, and it is only matter of time all larger heatpumps will be, too. End result is, legislator can't forbid people from handling propane, and hence, cannot prevent self-installation of split type heatpumps, either.
-
Yes. I am quite surprised. I thought the prices were disastrous here.
We all hope it's getting better. The HVAC trade union mafia has lobbied for decades to prevent the proliferation of environmentally friendly refrigerants, because only the high CO2 equivalent of the currently used F gases keeps them in business, because the legislator can't let "anyone" install these things. As a result, True Professionals^tm let the damaging gasses in the environment anyway, and consumer pays for this. (Although if the story about a simple $50 exam is true, then it's more like a mental barrier only in the U.S. It's lot more demanding here, the biggest problem is the required work time in a certified company.)
But this is all changing. Propane is really coming this time. Small appliances like fridges have already transitioned, and it is only matter of time all larger heatpumps will be, too. End result is, legislator can't forbid people from handling propane, and hence, cannot prevent self-installation of split type heatpumps, either.
Don't count on it. Back when it was legal to use R134a as an aerosol propellant it was a federal crime to vent it from a refrigeration system. When a gas is used as a refrigerant it is governed by different laws than when it is used for some other purpose. I have little doubt that it would be just as illegal for an unlicensed person to work with a hydrocarbon refrigerant, indeed it is currently a federal crime to charge a refrigeration system with propane, ostensibly due to the flammability danger. Propane is a very good replacement for R-22 though, its properties are almost identical, in fact the performance is slightly better, however it is highly flammable obviously. So yeah, it's pretty hard to stop people from doing illegal things, but the law can make it as difficult as possible for them to get the parts and tools necessary to do it.
For what it's worth, I've been running propane in the AC system of my 1984 Volvo for years and despite being totally wrong for the system which is designed for R12, it works very well. I suspect the fact that it's an old enough system to have a real TXV helps, the cheaper fixed orifice stuff is more fussy. The flammability makes some people go into a panic, however I reasoned that there is already some 14 gallons of gasoline on board which is circulating under high pressure so what more risk is 6 ounces of propane going to cause?
-
Yes. I am quite surprised. I thought the prices were disastrous here.
We all hope it's getting better. The HVAC trade union mafia has lobbied for decades to prevent the proliferation of environmentally friendly refrigerants, because only the high CO2 equivalent of the currently used F gases keeps them in business, because the legislator can't let "anyone" install these things. As a result, True Professionals^tm let the damaging gasses in the environment anyway, and consumer pays for this. (Although if the story about a simple $50 exam is true, then it's more like a mental barrier only in the U.S. It's lot more demanding here, the biggest problem is the required work time in a certified company.)
But this is all changing. Propane is really coming this time. Small appliances like fridges have already transitioned, and it is only matter of time all larger heatpumps will be, too. End result is, legislator can't forbid people from handling propane, and hence, cannot prevent self-installation of split type heatpumps, either.
Don't count on it. Back when it was legal to use R134a as an aerosol propellant it was a federal crime to vent it from a refrigeration system. When a gas is used as a refrigerant it is governed by different laws than when it is used for some other purpose. I have little doubt that it would be just as illegal for an unlicensed person to work with a hydrocarbon refrigerant, indeed it is currently a federal crime to charge a refrigeration system with propane, ostensibly due to the flammability danger. Propane is a very good replacement for R-22 though, its properties are almost identical, in fact the performance is slightly better, however it is highly flammable obviously. So yeah, it's pretty hard to stop people from doing illegal things, but the law can make it as difficult as possible for them to get the parts and tools necessary to do it.
For what it's worth, I've been running propane in the AC system of my 1984 Volvo for years and despite being totally wrong for the system which is designed for R12, it works very well. I suspect the fact that it's an old enough system to have a real TXV helps, the cheaper fixed orifice stuff is more fussy. The flammability makes some people go into a panic, however I reasoned that there is already some 14 gallons of gasoline on board which is circulating under high pressure so what more risk is 6 ounces of propane going to cause?
you don't have a gasoline circulating inside the cabin, the risk is the evaporator leaking make the cabin a bomb, with a bit of luck the brushes in the fan will set it off at the right moment
afaiu the few car ACs that use r290 have a secondary heat exchanger so that the evaporator isn't in the cabin air loop
-
you don't have a gasoline circulating inside the cabin, the risk is the evaporator leaking make the cabin a bomb, with a bit of luck the brushes in the fan will set it off at the right moment
afaiu the few car ACs that use r290 have a secondary heat exchanger so that the evaporator isn't in the cabin air loop
Sure, but does it matter? Fires that start in the engine compartment spread to the cabin extremely quickly. Propane has a scent added to it that makes it reek of rotten eggs, it's not going to fill the cabin without me noticing and it would have to be a very fast leak to matter. It's lighter than air so it is easily vented, and 6 ounces is a small quantity. Every leak I've ever seen in a car A/C system has been under the hood, and most of them have been slow, dumping the charge out over a period of months or years. It doesn't concern me at all.
-
Those bricks are intended for inner walls only! You can't use these for outside walls, read the datasheet. Last year I have looked into these bricks as a light weight solution to upgrade my shed but the specs say these aren't suitable for outside walls.
They absolutely are intended for outside walls. Our 2004 house uses those.
-
They absolutely are intended for outside walls. Our 2004 house uses those.
It is quite an obvious assumption that bricks can be used for outside walls. nctnico must be thinking about some special snowflake indoor-only brick. Never heard about such a thing.
-
They absolutely are intended for outside walls. Our 2004 house uses those.
It is quite an obvious assumption that bricks can be used for outside walls. nctnico must be thinking about some special snowflake indoor-only brick. Never heard about such a thing.
:palm: Geez... you really missed the part where I wrote that I actually read the datasheet for those bricks... And that datasheet says 'indoor use'.
Throw this into Google translate:
https://www.wienerberger.nl/product/binnenmuur/producttypen/porotherm-metselblokken-pm20-en-pm25.html (https://www.wienerberger.nl/product/binnenmuur/producttypen/porotherm-metselblokken-pm20-en-pm25.html)
I'm simply going by what the manufacturer recommends to use their products for.
-
Those bricks are intended for inner walls only! You can't use these for outside walls, read the datasheet. Last year I have looked into these bricks as a light weight solution to upgrade my shed but the specs say these aren't suitable for outside walls.
They absolutely are intended for outside walls. Our 2004 house uses those.
exposed to the weather or covered?
-
exposed to the weather or covered?
Covered.
-
They absolutely are intended for outside walls. Our 2004 house uses those.
It is quite an obvious assumption that bricks can be used for outside walls. nctnico must be thinking about some special snowflake indoor-only brick. Never heard about such a thing.
:palm: Geez... you really missed the part where I wrote that I actually read the datasheet for those bricks... And that datasheet says 'indoor use'.
Throw this into Google translate:
https://www.wienerberger.nl/product/binnenmuur/producttypen/porotherm-metselblokken-pm20-en-pm25.html (https://www.wienerberger.nl/product/binnenmuur/producttypen/porotherm-metselblokken-pm20-en-pm25.html)
I'm simply going by what the manufacturer recommends to use their products for.
There's some that are interior, some that are exterior. E.g. https://www.wienerberger.at/produkte/wand/produktkatalog/porotherm-25-38-plan.html (https://www.wienerberger.at/produkte/wand/produktkatalog/porotherm-25-38-plan.html) is exterior and interior.
-
exposed to the weather or covered?
Covered.
so it is really an interior wall, inside what ever "wall" it is covered with
-
They absolutely are intended for outside walls. Our 2004 house uses those.
It is quite an obvious assumption that bricks can be used for outside walls. nctnico must be thinking about some special snowflake indoor-only brick. Never heard about such a thing.
:palm: Geez... you really missed the part where I wrote that I actually read the datasheet for those bricks... And that datasheet says 'indoor use'.
Throw this into Google translate:
https://www.wienerberger.nl/product/binnenmuur/producttypen/porotherm-metselblokken-pm20-en-pm25.html (https://www.wienerberger.nl/product/binnenmuur/producttypen/porotherm-metselblokken-pm20-en-pm25.html)
I'm simply going by what the manufacturer recommends to use their products for.
Yeah, what I wrote. The same company has completely different product ranges for different countries. Here there are only thousand year old technology oven fired bricks, other countries get 50 cm thick ones with built in isolation.
-
For those who think that we have an abundance of electricity:
- China Shuts Down EV Charging Stations to Conserve Power During Heat Wave (https://jalopnik.com/china-shuts-down-ev-charging-stations-to-conserve-power-1849453761 (https://jalopnik.com/china-shuts-down-ev-charging-stations-to-conserve-power-1849453761))
- CAISO: Intensifying heat leads to another conservation call (https://www.flexalert.org/news/120-intensifying-heat-leads-to-another-conservation-call (https://www.flexalert.org/news/120-intensifying-heat-leads-to-another-conservation-call))
- French PM says companies may face energy ‘rationing’ this winter (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220829-french-pm-says-companies-may-face-energy-rationing-this-winter (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220829-french-pm-says-companies-may-face-energy-rationing-this-winter))
-
If Kawasaki was just a couple years further along with their hydrogen turbines, they could have had a lot of sales now. Suddenly 25% round trip efficiency and low utilisation of electrolyzers doesn't look so economically unfeasible any more.
The current green hydrogen producers will probably have paid off their investments after this year.
-
The so called "Operation Thermostat" >:D is happening in US, just curious if similar case will happen also in EU countries especially in winter ?
As fact that many EU leaders already warned few days ago to their citizens about energy crisis to come.
Source -> https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency (https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency)
Quote ...
Thousands of Xcel customers locked out of thermostats during 'energy emergency'
22,000 people lost control of temperatures in their homes for hours ...
-
The so called "Operation Thermostat" >:D is happening in US, just curious if similar case will happen also in EU countries especially in winter ?
As fact that many EU leaders already warned few days ago to their citizens about energy crisis to come.
Source -> https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency (https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency)
Quote ...
Thousands of Xcel customers locked out of thermostats during 'energy emergency'
22,000 people lost control of temperatures in their homes for hours ...
Pop the thermostat off the bracket and jumper a couple of wires together will solve that, at least on an individual level.
-
Just got a letter with new electricity tariffs... another 50% on top which makes the price almost double of what I paid last year. :'( I'm starting to feel more and more sorry I didn't manage to buy the (used) solar panels I had an eye on.
-
I dunno how effective solar panels would be where you live, but yeah. I kind of suspect that solar panel prices may go through the roof due to a sudden increase in demand and suppliers taking advantage of it.
-
I dunno how effective solar panels would be where you live, but yeah. I kind of suspect that solar panel prices may go through the roof due to a sudden increase in demand and suppliers taking advantage of it.
My roof is has pretty much the best orientation and angle for solar panels. If the deal happened as I wanted, the payback time would have been less than 4 years even with the 'old' tarif.
Edit: I still spot several potentially good deals though... Hmmm....
-
I dunno how effective solar panels would be where you live, but yeah. I kind of suspect that solar panel prices may go through the roof due to a sudden increase in demand and suppliers taking advantage of it.
My roof is has pretty much the best orientation and angle for solar panels. If the deal happened as I wanted, the payback time would have been less than 4 years even with the 'old' tarif.
'A little story if I may' in this post is relevant:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4383610/#msg4383610 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4383610/#msg4383610)
-
The so called "Operation Thermostat" >:D is happening in US, just curious if similar case will happen also in EU countries especially in winter ?
As fact that many EU leaders already warned few days ago to their citizens about energy crisis to come.
Source -> https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency (https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency)
Quote ...
Thousands of Xcel customers locked out of thermostats during 'energy emergency'
22,000 people lost control of temperatures in their homes for hours ...
From that linked article for those who won't read it:
"It's a voluntary program. Let's remember that this is something that customers choose to be a part of based on the incentives," said Emmett Romine, vice president of customer solutions and innovation at Xcel.
Customers receive a $100 credit for enrolling in the program and $25 annually, but Romine said customers also agree to give up some control to save energy and money and make the system more reliable.
Customers opted in (possibly without fully understanding what they were signing up for) to receive a reduced cost supply in return for remote shedding being enabled on their thermostat. Which left them unable to set it to cool below 26 degrees, not some mass disaster, not some monopoly/government over reach, a $$ compensated minor inconvenience.
-
Yep. BTW I usually set the AC in my office to 25 or 26 degrees C. Otherwise I feel cold.
-
Yep. BTW I usually set the AC in my office to 25 or 26 degrees C. Otherwise I feel cold.
The energy saving advice from the government here is cool to 26 in summer and heat to 19 in winter:
https://www.energy.gov.au/households/household-guides/seasonal-advice/summer-guide (https://www.energy.gov.au/households/household-guides/seasonal-advice/summer-guide)
https://www.energy.gov.au/households/household-guides/seasonal-advice/winter (https://www.energy.gov.au/households/household-guides/seasonal-advice/winter)
They wouldn't be suggesting that if it was unsafe or disruptive. Want it less variable, you'll pay $$$ for that (example, offices that are 22 +/- 1 and hugely wasteful of energy).
-
I dunno how effective solar panels would be where you live, but yeah. I kind of suspect that solar panel prices may go through the roof due to a sudden increase in demand and suppliers taking advantage of it.
I have been enjoying the ridiculous spot prices, I'm paying fixed 0.051€/kWh for energy I buy (plus 0.08€/kWh for transmission), and selling my PV generation to grid for the spot price, maybe 0.40€/kWh average, some hours nearly 1€/kWh. This has completely turned the strategy around, trying to minimize own use, by timing the heat pump starting from 18:00.
Solar panel prices have not skyrocketed, pretty modest price increases. However, there seems to be some kind of shortage of inverters (and more significant price increases), and of course I can only imagine how difficult it is now to get installers.
-
I dunno how effective solar panels would be where you live, but yeah. I kind of suspect that solar panel prices may go through the roof due to a sudden increase in demand and suppliers taking advantage of it.
I have been enjoying the ridiculous spot prices, I'm paying fixed 0.051€/kWh for energy I buy (plus 0.08€/kWh for transmission), and selling my PV generation to grid for the spot price, maybe 0.40€/kWh average, some hours nearly 1€/kWh. This has completely turned the strategy around, trying to minimize own use, by timing the heat pump starting from 18:00.
Solar panel prices have not skyrocketed, pretty modest price increases. However, there seems to be some kind of shortage of inverters (and more significant price increases), and of course I can only imagine how difficult it is now to get installers.
For now. So I suggest investing now. Given not just this individual behavior we're describing here, but the fact that a lot of big countries are now going to invest even more massively in renewables, it seems very likely that prices are going to skyrocket. The only question is just when. So probably better hurry up while it's still doable.
And for those who live in appartments or don't own their house, they'll be stuck with whatever governments and energy distributors will offer them.
-
It is quite an obvious assumption that bricks can be used for outside walls. nctnico must be thinking about some special snowflake indoor-only brick. Never heard about such a thing.
There are many types of brick and block which are not suitable for exterior walls. Some can kinda be used for an exterior wall, but only beneath a waterproof screed. Some are for use on the inner layer of a cavity wall. Some are only for use for interior walls.
Just try using exposing an aerated concrete brick/block to the weather for a while.
-
I still don't understand Germany's logic towards turning off nuclear.
Logic? They emotionally reacted to the Chernobyl incident. Softened a bit, and started to reinstated nuclear as at least a short term necessity. Then the Fukushima incident happened, and emotion ruled once again.
-
Our so-called Conservative government is going to ban petrol cars in 2030. Less than 8 years from now. It's mental. Poor people won't be able to afford the increased prices of second-hand petrol and diesel cars. It's completely insane and unnecessary. EV sales will eventually overtake ICE cars and replace them at a pace people can cope with.
https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/ (https://www.brindley.co.uk/news/the-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-explained/)
I think they look at the UK's pathetic remaining car industry and think "not much to destroy there, so there's nothing much to protect". You can't expect their little minds to capture the full picture, can you?
-
I still don't understand Germany's logic towards turning off nuclear.
Logic? They emotionally reacted to the Chernobyl incident. Softened a bit, and started to reinstated nuclear as at least a short term necessity. Then the Fukushima incident happened, and emotion ruled once again.
Nah, I think the relationship between Germany and nuclear energy is more complex than this and is rooted in older events.
-
The so called "Operation Thermostat" >:D is happening in US, just curious if similar case will happen also in EU countries especially in winter ?
As fact that many EU leaders already warned few days ago to their citizens about energy crisis to come.
Source -> https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency (https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency)
Quote ...
Thousands of Xcel customers locked out of thermostats during 'energy emergency'
22,000 people lost control of temperatures in their homes for hours ...
From that linked article for those who won't read it:
"It's a voluntary program. Let's remember that this is something that customers choose to be a part of based on the incentives," said Emmett Romine, vice president of customer solutions and innovation at Xcel.
Customers receive a $100 credit for enrolling in the program and $25 annually, but Romine said customers also agree to give up some control to save energy and money and make the system more reliable.
Customers opted in (possibly without fully understanding what they were signing up for) to receive a reduced cost supply in return for remote shedding being enabled on their thermostat. Which left them unable to set it to cool below 26 degrees, not some mass disaster, not some monopoly/government over reach, a $$ compensated minor inconvenience.
Gotta wonder how many of them were cute enough to hack the environment instead? For instance, heat up something in the microwave and set or tie it under the thermostat. Repeat as necessary.
-
This EVU-Sperre seems irrational at first glance, it over-complicates a simple and old idea. In case people need more heat (super cold winter, blackout, whatever), they are going to be forced to turn the resistive heating COP=1 on (because it costs €0.3/kWh whole day).
Gotta wonder how many of them were cute enough to hack the environment instead? For instance, heat up something in the microwave and set or tie it under the thermostat. Repeat as necessary.
Same concept of taking over the control, one for heating in DE and one for cooling in US. This approach seems intrinsically flawed, IMHO.
-
This EVU-Sperre seems irrational at first glance, it over-complicates a simple and old idea. In case people need more heat (super cold winter, blackout, whatever), they are going to be forced to turn the resistive heating COP=1 on (because it costs €0.3/kWh whole day).
Gotta wonder how many of them were cute enough to hack the environment instead? For instance, heat up something in the microwave and set or tie it under the thermostat. Repeat as necessary.
Same concept of taking over the control, one for heating in DE and one for cooling in US. This approach seems intrinsically flawed, IMHO.
On controlled tariffs its usually on the contract/agreement that all heating loads are connected to the moderated supply and you cannot run any alternatives on the regular supply. You get the cheaper rate in return for less flexibility, dont want it less flexible? then you dont get it cheap.
Also remember the majority of the population don't understand thermostats (high temperature = heats up faster !$@$@!!) and for all the snakiness in this thread... air-air mini splits (and many commercial multi-head units) the remote control is just a set of buttons/display and the temperature sensor is buried inside the fan/head unit.
-
(..) that all heating loads are connected to the moderated supply and you cannot run any alternatives on the regular supply.
Shouldn't. That is exactly why this is stupid. The very first thing people are going to do when cold is to turn on any kettle, oven and toaster they have. With air conditioning they are going to "heat something in microwave oven..." or plug in their less efficient portable AC. This whole concept is no different than a 60-yo two tariff meter with a second tariff set at rip-off price. Same results expected.
-
Most people only really respond to pricing incentives to consume less when the bill comes in and they go broke, but that's generally way too late.
-
The so called "Operation Thermostat" >:D is happening in US, just curious if similar case will happen also in EU countries especially in winter ?
As fact that many EU leaders already warned few days ago to their citizens about energy crisis to come.
Source -> https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency (https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/thousands-of-xcel-customers-locked-out-of-thermostats-during-energy-emergency)
Quote ...
Thousands of Xcel customers locked out of thermostats during 'energy emergency'
22,000 people lost control of temperatures in their homes for hours ...
From that linked article for those who won't read it:
"It's a voluntary program. Let's remember that this is something that customers choose to be a part of based on the incentives," said Emmett Romine, vice president of customer solutions and innovation at Xcel.
Customers receive a $100 credit for enrolling in the program and $25 annually, but Romine said customers also agree to give up some control to save energy and money and make the system more reliable.
Customers opted in (possibly without fully understanding what they were signing up for) to receive a reduced cost supply in return for remote shedding being enabled on their thermostat. Which left them unable to set it to cool below 26 degrees, not some mass disaster, not some monopoly/government over reach, a $$ compensated minor inconvenience.
Gotta wonder how many of them were cute enough to hack the environment instead? For instance, heat up something in the microwave and set or tie it under the thermostat. Repeat as necessary.
back in the 80's my dad installed a system to lower the temperature at programmable times, it was basically a power resistors in a plastic holder that snapped onto each radiator thermostat valve
-
(..) that all heating loads are connected to the moderated supply and you cannot run any alternatives on the regular supply.
Shouldn't. That is exactly why this is stupid. The very first thing people are going to do when cold is to turn on any kettle, oven and toaster they have. With air conditioning they are going to "heat something in microwave oven..." or plug in their less efficient portable AC. This whole concept is no different than a 60-yo two tariff meter with a second tariff set at rip-off price. Same results expected.
Way to butcher the quote so it means something entirely different. The contract with the supplier is you get cheap power by agreeing that you won't move the load to another supply when it suits you. It is a contract, that may well be poorly enforced since so few consumers are able to move the large loads to another source, but the agreement is that the load cannot be powered at the customers convenience.
-
So Nord Stream 1 is now off for good, "oh no, an oil leak was discovered Vlad! We'll have to switch it all off!"
And the price begins to climb again: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Can the EU survive with NS1 off for the rest of the year? There's enough gas storage in Germany to survive the winter but what about next spring, summer, etc? There will be still demand from heavy industry, if any is still economically viable.
-
Groningen...
-
So Nord Stream 1 is now off for good, "oh no, an oil leak was discovered Vlad! We'll have to switch it all off!"
And the price begins to climb again: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas)
Can the EU survive with NS1 off for the rest of the year? There's enough gas storage in Germany to survive the winter but what about next spring, summer, etc? There will be still demand from heavy industry, if any is still economically viable.
Steel furnace plants in German already stopped operation and being closed down just few days ago, feel sorry for the workers. :-\
-> https://www.wsj.com/articles/arcelormittal-closes-two-steel-plants-amid-european-energy-crisis-11662136823 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/arcelormittal-closes-two-steel-plants-amid-european-energy-crisis-11662136823)
-> https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/arcelormittal-shut-blast-furnace-german-plant-gas-prices-soar-2022-09-02/ (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/arcelormittal-shut-blast-furnace-german-plant-gas-prices-soar-2022-09-02/)
While in UK according to Bloomberg ...
-> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/six-in-10-british-factories-at-risk-of-going-under-as-bills-soar (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/six-in-10-british-factories-at-risk-of-going-under-as-bills-soar)
-
Huge concerns if fertiliser production falls, I hope that there is some intervention soon.
Also in regards to Groningen gas field, I thought it was (a) quite close to depletion and (b) causing subsidence/earthquakes, and therefore extracting more gas is going to be a challenge (both politically and economically)
-
I hope that there is some intervention soon.
That all depends on how much the company's involved have "donated" to the tory party
-
Totally predictable result of weaponizing the economy, aka sanctions, when you know beforehand that the other side has some aces up their sleeve.
-
Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity supplied in 2020, having surpassed coal in 2016 and nuclear in 2018. It is the largest source of renewable electricity in the UK.
So 25%....so why not build another 3 x what we already have?...then isnt that close to 100% of elec supplied by wind?.........ditto other countries...like Denmark where 47% elec is by wind.
Denmark owns Greenland, which has an arctic coast, with loads of fossil fuels, which they could start flogging to us all if they wanted.
Or is it a NIMBY question...
And what about fracking?
I dont care if they frack under my bed, get the frackers back!
And solar isnt being used enough either, in all countries.
Why not more tidal lagoons like Swansea Bay...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_Lagoon_Swansea_Bay
-
Totally predictable result of weaponizing the economy, aka sanctions, when you know beforehand that the other side has some aces up their sleeve.
Specifically stupid is to first cause doubling of price by saying "we are going to stop buying your product", yet keep buying said product for half a year, monetizing the other party in the process, more than ever per delivered product, to the point they can totally afford cutting the supply just for fun.
-
Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity supplied in 2020, having surpassed coal in 2016 and nuclear in 2018. It is the largest source of renewable electricity in the UK.
So 25%....so why not build another 3 x what we already have?...then isnt that close to 100% of elec supplied by wind?.........ditto other countries...like Denmark where 47% elec is by wind.
Denmark owns Greenland, which has an arctic coast, with loads of fossil fuels, which they could start flogging to us all if they wanted.
Or is it a NIMBY question...
And what about fracking?
I dont care if they frack under my bed, get the frackers back!
And solar isnt being used enough either, in all countries.
Why not more tidal lagoons like Swansea Bay...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_Lagoon_Swansea_Bay
The answer to all the why not energy questions is that it takes time, measured in years, to build up that infrastructure. What does one do in the meantime? Worse yet, what happens to all that infrastructure in a few years when the cheaper sources of energy come back and they can't compete anymore?
As for fracking, it's got a history of negative effects, like contaminating groundwater (where does the UK get their fresh water?), earth subsidence, creating earthquakes, methane releases, and more...you can google that easily. To be used in moderation and foresight, or you're destroying one essential resource for another.
-
Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity supplied in 2020, having surpassed coal in 2016 and nuclear in 2018. It is the largest source of renewable electricity in the UK.
So 25%....so why not build another 3 x what we already have?...then isnt that close to 100% of elec supplied by wind?.........ditto other countries...like Denmark where 47% elec is by wind.
Denmark owns Greenland, which has an arctic coast, with loads of fossil fuels, which they could start flogging to us all if they wanted.
Or is it a NIMBY question...
And what about fracking?
I dont care if they frack under my bed, get the frackers back!
And solar isnt being used enough either, in all countries.
Why not more tidal lagoons like Swansea Bay...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_Lagoon_Swansea_Bay
Numbers, not adjectives, rule.
The key word is dispatchability.
If you crunch the measured wind output in the UK (from gridwatch), there is a remarkably simple rule of thumb. If the peak output is X (currently X is approx 12GW IIRC), then for X%.of the time the wind output is less than X% of the peak.
Yes, that means for 3 days a year the output is <1% of peak, I.e. 0.12GW. Where are you going to get the other 99% for those 3 days? Have lots of other generating plant lying idle except for then?
That's why whoever creates grid level energy storage will become as rich as Croesus.
-
what happens to all that infrastructure in a few years when the cheaper sources of energy come back and they can't compete anymore?
Ive got a funny feeling that Russian gas has gone...forever, for UK/USA/EU
-
Wind power contributed 24.8% of UK electricity supplied in 2020, having surpassed coal in 2016 and nuclear in 2018. It is the largest source of renewable electricity in the UK.
So 25%....so why not build another 3 x what we already have?...then isnt that close to 100% of elec supplied by wind?.........ditto other countries...like Denmark where 47% elec is by wind.
Denmark owns Greenland, which has an arctic coast, with loads of fossil fuels, which they could start flogging to us all if they wanted.
No Denmark does not own Greenland, they are part of the kingdom but have home rule and natural resources on Greenland belong to Greenland
-
So Nord Stream 1 is now off for good, "oh no, an oil leak was discovered Vlad! We'll have to switch it all off!"
And the price begins to climb again: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Can the EU survive with NS1 off for the rest of the year? There's enough gas storage in Germany to survive the winter but what about next spring, summer, etc? There will be still demand from heavy industry, if any is still economically viable.
Maybe that should have been pondered earlier?
-
Can the EU survive with NS1 off for the rest of the year? There's enough gas storage in Germany to survive the winter but what about next spring, summer, etc?
Dont forget some of that gas is the uk's that the europeans are looking after for us.We sold it to you cheap and plan to buy it back in a few months at a much higher rate.
https://www.share-talk.com/uk-will-be-forced-to-buy-back-gas-shipped-to-europe-for-storage/ (https://www.share-talk.com/uk-will-be-forced-to-buy-back-gas-shipped-to-europe-for-storage/)
-
Sorry, but that great big beast you want to discuss;
It's politicized.
Russians observed American withdrawal, from Afghanistan. Yeah, take out the army / military protection FIRST. THEN, try leaving a bunch of resources, like 55 billion $ worth, armored trucks, Night Vision equipment...you name it.
I've heard, Afghans now running a 'nice' military equipment bargain sales.
Sorry, you brought it up, no offense, but...this is Politics and so, the response is,...political.
-
Maybe that should have been pondered earlier?
Possibly - but it also shows how desperate Russia is. What else can they do now? Europe knows the gas isn't coming back, so they should pile even more into Ukraine and hope that the winter is warm. Meanwhile, production from Norway/UK/Netherlands is up, some older nuke plants are coming back online or won't be shut off soon, and more storage will open. And Germany will have more LNG terminals.
-
Maybe that should have been pondered earlier?
Possibly - but it also shows how desperate Russia is. What else can they do now? Europe knows the gas isn't coming back, so they should pile even more into Ukraine and hope that the winter is warm. Meanwhile, production from Norway/UK/Netherlands is up, some older nuke plants are coming back online or won't be shut off soon, and more storage will open. And Germany will have more LNG terminals.
In the end the situation will be better for Europe. The transition into more diverse energy sources needed to be made anyway. Poetin just ripped off the bandaid in one go. IMHO Germany should start dismantling the Nordstream gas pipes at their end.
-
Maybe that should have been pondered earlier?
Possibly - but it also shows how desperate Russia is. What else can they do now? Europe knows the gas isn't coming back, so they should pile even more into Ukraine and hope that the winter is warm. Meanwhile, production from Norway/UK/Netherlands is up, some older nuke plants are coming back online or won't be shut off soon, and more storage will open. And Germany will have more LNG terminals.
Who's desperate? Russia is making way more money on energy sources than the last year. What you all should understand is Russian mentality. They will never submit because you f. them in the ass with sanctions. In 99% of cases they will rather do something in spite even if it hurts them even more. Not to say they have much higher pain threshold than Europeans. It's done not out desperation but so that Europe does not imagine it can feel warm and cozy while hurting Russia.
-
Who's desperate? Russia is making way more money on energy sources than the last year. What you all should understand is Russian mentality. They will never submit because you f. them in the ass with sanctions. In 99% of cases they will rather do something is spite even if it hurts them even more. Not to say they have much higher pain threshold than Europeans. It's done not out desperation but so that Europe does not imagine it feel warm and cozy while hurting Russia.
This may have been true when NS1 was running at 20%, as high price of gas meant that 20% * cost was still high.
But now it's at 0%. Only flow into EU is via Ukraine and TurkStream and price is falling...
Meanwhile they are flaring off gas that they cannot sell, and cannot convert into LNG to sell to China et al.
-
Who's desperate? Russia is making way more money on energy sources than the last year. What you all should understand is Russian mentality. They will never submit because you f. them in the ass with sanctions. In 99% of cases they will rather do something is spite even if it hurts them even more. Not to say they have much higher pain threshold than Europeans. It's done not out desperation but so that Europe does not imagine it feel warm and cozy while hurting Russia.
This may have been true when NS1 was running at 20%, as high price of gas meant that 20% * cost was still high.
But now it's at 0%. Only flow into EU is via Ukraine and TurkStream and price is falling...
Meanwhile they are flaring off gas that they cannot sell, and cannot convert into LNG to sell to China et al.
Yup. It is not like Russia suddenly has extra capacity to export gas to China. They'd need to put extra pipes in place for which they need components from abroad...
-
This may have been true when NS1 was running at 20%, as high price of gas meant that 20% * cost was still high.
But now it's at 0%. Only flow into EU is via Ukraine and TurkStream and price is falling...
They already made full year worth of profit (possibly much much more) by selling the product at increased price while production cost was the same.
It was a totally conscious political decision by Germany to monetize Russia's war machine by artificially doubling the gas price and deliberately continue buying it, and ask the puppets in Finland to monetize Germany's gas customers so that the increased price doesn't reflect into the bills, finally so that the average Germans don't need to know/feel what is going on. It seems the Finland's "Germany gas" bill is now at around 30 billion and increasing, which means around 20000 EUR bill for the average Finnish taxpayer. As a result, we are now done as a country, it seems irreversible now. (Some might remember me saying we can probably take one such debt "package" more and that's it, maybe a month or two ago. It came faster than anyone imagined.)
We can do nothing but to watch this farce, and of course re-design our lives from scratch, for example become more self-sufficient with food and energy, stop going to work (or at least stop getting paid for it), and so on. And of course, with no public healthcare anymore, and with no money to buy private services, better not fall sick. Full blown survivalist shit we all laughed at just a few years ago.
We live in a total clown world.
-
Meanwhile they are flaring off gas that they cannot sell, and cannot convert into LNG to sell to China et al.
EU cannot get LNG out of nowhere either. It's all about who gives up first. And I'm pretty sure it won't be Russia.
Yup. It is not like Russia suddenly has extra capacity to export gas to China. They'd need to put extra pipes in place for which they need components from abroad...
They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
-
Germany still has a good asset in their hands, temporary extension of their shut down nuclear power plants. I'm not saying it's not without issues, but this is, in the end, political decision, based on weighing different risks. Remember, Finland can't pay for the gas bills much longer, that resource is soon exhausted. So the options really are very expensive and/or cold showers (risking political instability), monetizing Russia's war machine even more (they sure are willing to sell), or resurrecting some of the NPPs. To me, the NPP option is obvious even though I'm not a huge fan of nuclear at all and think we should get rid of it long-term.
-
In 99% of cases they will rather do something is spite even if it hurts them even more.
Yup.
The Russian government mafia care little for foreigners or indeed Russian citizens.
Screw them all for the crazy ideaology of a corrupt authoritarian mega-block.
They like to order extra-judicial killings, but maybe some are now looking over their shoulders. Hehe.
-
Strawman arguments attacking other people's personality and intent is unimpressive.
Precisely what you demonstrably did! Therefore i kindly ask you, please stop being a hypocrite and introducing politics to this thread and the forum in general.
As i pointed out in this threads very first page you have the option to join and actually do something for UK instead
of letting UK go down the toilet by wasting your time attacking other people's personality , intents and opinions.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4379452/#msg4379452 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4379452/#msg4379452)
https://dontpay.uk (https://dontpay.uk)
And for those who constantly blame Russia for causing "whatever country's" energy shortage:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/european-energy-crisis-natural-gas-price-outlook-norway-russia-supply-2022-8?op=1 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/european-energy-crisis-natural-gas-price-outlook-norway-russia-supply-2022-8?op=1)
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/norway-rakes-highest-ever-oil-revenues-prices-surge (https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/norway-rakes-highest-ever-oil-revenues-prices-surge)
https://www.rigzone.com/news/who_is_europes_top_gas_supplier-02-aug-2022-169831-article/ (https://www.rigzone.com/news/who_is_europes_top_gas_supplier-02-aug-2022-169831-article/)
Perhaps as a UK citizen you could sober up a bit tggzz and actually learn something , but i doubt.
UK Column:
UKC Interview: Vernon Coleman - From The Medicine Man to the Cabbage War - An Analysis of Medical Corruption and Insanity
https://odysee.com/@ukcolumn:9/ukcolumn-news-010922:7 (https://odysee.com/@ukcolumn:9/ukcolumn-news-010922:7)
-
Meanwhile they are flaring off gas that they cannot sell, and cannot convert into LNG to sell to China et al.
EU cannot get LNG out of nowhere either. It's all about who gives up first. And I'm pretty sure it won't be Russia.
LNG isn't the only option. There is lots of gas in Europe. The biggest problem is lack of political will to pump it up. Just like turning up nuclear power.
Yup. It is not like Russia suddenly has extra capacity to export gas to China. They'd need to put extra pipes in place for which they need components from abroad...
They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
That takes years; not a short term viable option.
You forget the easiest way out by far for the Russians is to simply get rid of Poetin and his weird ideas. Nobody is against Russia; Poetin and his regime are the problem.
-
We can do nothing but to watch this farce, and of course re-design our lives from scratch, for example become more self-sufficient with food and energy, stop going to work (or at least stop getting paid for it), and so on. And of course, with no public healthcare anymore, and with no money to buy private services, better not fall sick. Full blown survivalist shit we all laughed at just a few years ago.
You are being overly dramatic. Europe was shot to bits not that long ago and we recovered just fine. Every few years there is a crisis. You know what they say: 7 good years are followed by 7 bad years and vice versa. This is not the first time things go bad and it won't be the last time.
-
The timing is likely due to the upcoming G7 oil price cap, trying to break unity before there's a vote.
It's all a giant game of chicken.
-
They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
That takes years; not a short term viable option.
You forget the easiest way out by far for the Russians is to simply get rid of Poetin and his weird ideas.
EU securing alternative sources of gas or other energy is not a short term option either.
Nobody is against Russia; Poetin and his regime are the problem.
Then why sanctions target usual Russian individuals a lot? I talk with Russians occasionally and didn't notice any will to get rid of Putin, or that their live had become that much worse. Overall I see that sanctions affect me personally disproportionally more than usual Russians.
-
They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
No they are not. Maybe they would be capable to make pipes, but all the rest of the industrial machinery and all the sensors are imported. And with the current embargo they are not getting enough parts to even make do. Civil aviation is slowly hutting down, where planes are dismantled for their used parts, and pilots are told to "break less".
The whole war is a battle between those two systems; between the Empire and the Foundation; between the big and the little. To seize control of a world, they bribe with immense ships that can make war, but lack all economic significance. We, on the other hand, bribe with little things, useless in war, but vital to prosperity and profits. ‘A king, or a Commdor, will take the ships and even make war. Arbitrary rulers throughout history have bartered their subjects’ welfare for what they consider honour, and glory, and conquest. But it’s still the little things in life that count – and Asper Argo won’t stand up against the economic depression that will sweep all Korell in two or three years.”
― Isaac Asimov, Foundation
-
They'd build a new pipeline rather than submit IMHO.
No they are not. Maybe they would be capable to make pipes, but all the rest of the industrial machinery and all the sensors are imported. And with the current embargo they are not getting enough parts to even make do. Civil aviation is slowly hutting down, where planes are dismantled for their used parts, and pilots are told to "break less".
Well, they could try to get pipeline parts from China. But it would still mean the construction of thousands of kilometers of pipeline through extremely rough terrain OR a long detour to get the gas to China. But it is not a given that China will want to buy the gas and oil.
-
Especially because China buying Russian gas exposes them to the risk of sanctions from the USA. There's really no advantage to them besides a small cut in the price per MWh, and China's economy is in enough of a deathspin right now without pissing off its biggest trading partner.
-
You are being overly dramatic. Europe was shot to bits not that long ago and we recovered just fine.
difference was ,back then it was the germans turning on the gas not the russians turning it off
-
You forget the easiest way out by far for the Russians is to simply get rid of Poetin and his weird ideas. Nobody is against Russia; Poetin and his regime are the problem.
Easiest ? Thats the plan from the start of the heavy sanctions and robbing Russia's reserved money, with the confident it will cripple their economy, and then make Russians life harder, and then people will be pouring on the street to kick out the evil Putin and toppled him. Then install Western puppet to rule the whole Russia, meaning free/ultra cheap gas & oil forever ... total win.
Problem is the reality on the ground is happening sort of inverted way, victims (head of states) of Western countries are dropping like flies, instead of Putin. :-DD
EU, UK and US people are unhappy with the economy, inflation, crazy energy price and etc, and the people are starting to protest on the street (recent massive EU countries like Czech (Prague)) protest and others (get silenced/muted by Western MSM)), major strikes like in UK, and so far it managed to topple the leaders (so called Zelensky Curse) starting to inflict victims like from Italy's PM Mario Draghi, recently UK's PM Boris Johnson and who's next ? Even the newly appointed UK's PM probably won't last long peacefully finishing her term completely, if the Brits hardships keep worsening each months .. for years to come. Heck, even US Joe Biden him self is not standing firm on his position as POTUS too, lets see what happened if the opposition (Rep) swept the power at the upcoming mid-term.
-
recently UK's PM Boris Johnson
Energy prices had very little to do with his demise .More he was a useless lying ***t
-
You forget the easiest way out by far for the Russians is to simply get rid of Poetin and his weird ideas. Nobody is against Russia; Poetin and his regime are the problem.
Easiest ? Thats the plan from the start of the heavy sanctions and robbing Russia's reserved money, with the confident it will cripple their economy, and then make Russians life harder, and then people will be pouring on the street to kick out the evil Putin and toppled him. Then install Western puppet to rule the whole Russia, meaning free/ultra cheap gas & oil forever ... total win.
You think Poetin isn't a puppet? If you look at who is gaining the most at the moment: the US. It would not surprise if it turns out the US has helped put Poetin in place to stir up trouble. Before Poetin, Europe and Russia where having a very good economic relations and these relations where getting better all the time.
-
Western media lamenting about rising prices are hiding the fact that there won't be supplies for everybody, independent of price. As far as i know in Germany some energy-intensive production lines are already shutting down and recession is predicted. Others are talking about risk of de-industrialization.
Regards, Dieter
-
The speculation is that new UK PM Truss will borrow massively to cap energy bills at £2500 pa for the "Average Household". Whilst this is probably the morally correct thing to do, one wonders if it will just cause more inflation of energy prices and lug the UK with yet more debt. It needs to be combined with windfall taxes on the producers that are making bank.
-
recently UK's PM Boris Johnson
Energy prices had very little to do with his demise .More he was a useless lying ***t
His lying and nasty behavior are not the big problem, if he managed to rule the country well, he wasted his own leverage when he won on the Brexit, and basically throw that powerful momentum away and creating more problems for the country instead.
I have dozens of friend native Britons, told me basically if the UK's economy was fine & dandy, most Brits will sort of close their eyes and ignore on his nastiness, but since problems and problems piling up starting on his reign, hell, even he was breathing weirdly will be used as an excuse to topple him, let alone those lying he had done.
-
Thats the plan from the start of the heavy sanctions and robbing Russia's reserved money
The plan was to make the best of a disastrous situation and prevent an easy war from becoming a springboard to military belligerence and planting plain clothes combatants in the Baltics.
-
We can do nothing but to watch this farce, and of course re-design our lives from scratch, for example become more self-sufficient with food and energy, stop going to work (or at least stop getting paid for it), and so on. And of course, with no public healthcare anymore, and with no money to buy private services, better not fall sick. Full blown survivalist shit we all laughed at just a few years ago.
You are being overly dramatic. Europe was shot to bits not that long ago and we recovered just fine. Every few years there is a crisis. You know what they say: 7 good years are followed by 7 bad years and vice versa. This is not the first time things go bad and it won't be the last time.
It is easy to say when you distribute the loss, but the specific problem we are seeing here is that our current puppets are pretty much sacrificing our very small country for the sake of the energy prices in other EU countries.
If we just look at Uniper/Germany's cheap 10-year gas contracts, the problem is here: 20-30 billion out of the pockets of a 5M people country, to the pockets of a 80M people country, totally kills the former, but does not help the latter much, only a very minor and temporary relief. Me pay 10000, you get 500, you got it?
So the problem is this: during active energy war in Ukraine, Uniper makes 10-year fixed price gas contracts in Germany: what could go wrong? When it is obvious it is going under, puppets in Finland decide it is a good investment, against all experts and Uniper itself, to buy majority share of the German company. And when it is finally actually going bankrupt, which is what it should do, finally ceasing the fixed contracts and exposing the real prices to the German consumers, this bankrupt is prevented again and again by pushing billion after billion of Finnish taxpayer money into the company. And it's still not stopping.
There have been economic disasters in Finnish history, such as buying hugely expensive 3G mobile operating licenses with taxpayer money all over Europe in early 2000's, which all ended up being a loss. But the Uniper scandal, is by far, the biggest economic disaster in the whole Finnish history, and it still isn't over.
Of course "it is only debt, it doesn't need to be paid back". That also ensures we are going to be in debt in unforeseeable future, because interests keep running. That only means increase in taxes, and that means people will do everything they can to avoid paying taxes, which means cease of innovation and/or wide spread black market. That means further collapse of public healthcare etc. although many consider it already collapsed during last 2-3 years. Now it is widely reported that getting a stroke, for example, puts you in 5-hour queue for treatment, so you just simply die or worse, become paralyzed or brain damaged. This is totally unheard of and does not repeat every 7 years as you say.
So no, this is not your "usual crisis". Of course recovery and rebuilding is always possible, and that is what I am eagerly waiting for, because I like to be constructive. But right now, we are not at that phase yet. We are just watching our country being actively destroyed. It needs to hit certain rock bottom before the reconstruction can begin.
-
But that is a 'Finland' problem caused by people that where put in power by democratic voting.
-
... look at Uniper/Germany's ... <snip> ..
Talking of Uniper, a non Russia propaganda :-DD news site (US-CNBC) just published today ...
-> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/uniper-says-worst-is-still-to-come-as-russia-halts-gas-flows-to-europe.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/uniper-says-worst-is-still-to-come-as-russia-halts-gas-flows-to-europe.html)
Quote ...
"German gas giant Uniper says the worst is still to come after Russia halts flows to Europe"
“I have said this a number of times now over this year and I’m educating also policymakers. Look, the worst is still to come,” Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach told CNBC on Tuesday at Gastech 2022 in Milan."
The Russia sanctions launched by US & EU was deliberately, knowing the catastrophe and side effects to come in advance.
Above (highlighted) is "one of the proofs" that Western politicians were warned by the industry experts, even US Janet Yellen and almost all EU central bankers were opposed with the sanctions before it was launched in Feb, knowingly the after effects especially on the economy & energy, this was not reported in headline news at Western MSM and heavily redacted, foot noted or not reported at all at some big ones.
You do not need to be an industrial genius, that shutting down Russia oil & gas which represent big chunks of global market (hence Russia is member of OPEC+ cartel) and expecting other oil & gas producers have ready "enough spare capacities" to cover that lost is just unbelievable.
Its like expecting chip manufacturers to have spare big production capacity to serve an ad-hoc customers, just because the customer is rich and can be instantly churn out the new chips in weeks or months, its so naive. :palm:
-
But that is a 'Finland' problem caused by people that where put in power by democratic voting.
Yes, that is totally true, our election is very reliable in the sense of not getting manipulated in classical ways like modified tickets or whatnot. OTOH, the convention how the cabinet is built is pretty weird, so instead of mixing the top 2-3 winner parties, it's now a mix of the winner alone (17.7%), plus all the losers, ignoring the #2 (17.5%) and #3 (17.0%). (We have the convention of only building majority cabinets here which makes everything simple because every law will be automatically passed in the parliament, and I can accept that, it's one way of doing it, but it does get pretty weird when you have the "winner" (17.7%) plus all the losers to barely exceed the required 50% vote share. It's still kinda-democracy, but it puts the majority of what people actually voted for (17.5%+17.0%) in powerless opposition.)
Plus the guy who promised 100€/month to every pensioner who votes him as a PM, to gain the winning place by 0.2%, was replaced within months by The Better PM people did not vote for, who now, to be fair, has almost North Korea / Russia level support from the people (in totally free popularity measurements, and I'm again sure they are not technically manipulated), and this popularity stays even getting caught red handed in cocaine party, and likely high on cocaine in duty, during the very discussions in which she approved the 8 billion EUR Uniper packet. But hey, police officially commented that they will not investigate, but anyone who discusses this online may be prosecuted, so I'm at ****ing risk right now writing this very post, but I'm doing it anyway. This is something I don't consider a part of free democracy, but that going in the direction of Russia or North Korea.
But the media control laws put in place during early COVID are working well, and in our taxes we also have to pay for the officials who use their work time to feed made-up stories about our great PM to the foreign media. I consider it wasted effort, but it works really well, because then our media can report how our PM is popular somewhere else, and weirdly this is really important for many Finns. (See the elephant joke http://finnishnightmares.blogspot.com/2015/12/its-not-true-at-least-not-all-of-it.html (http://finnishnightmares.blogspot.com/2015/12/its-not-true-at-least-not-all-of-it.html))
I'm not joking. I wish I was. This is really sad time to witness.
So I hope this gives you some background about the stage on which the history biggest economical disaster of this country has been created on. And I'm sure many programmed bots will strongly disagree, but the great thing about facts is, it is totally irrelevant whether one disagrees or agrees with them. And I'm sorry how it's drifting, but it is fundamentally all connected to the gas, and Germany's decision to enable their "green shift" by utilizing cheap natural gas supplied by Russia, and keep doing that even during times it all is falling apart.
-
You do not need to be an industrial genius, that shutting down Russia oil & gas which represent big chunks of global market (hence Russia is member of OPEC+ cartel) and expecting other oil & gas producers have ready "enough spare capacities" to cover that lost is just unbelievable.
Which is why they didn't, neither gas nor oil was significantly sanctioned. Although I suspect oil sanctions are coming sooner than later at this point, with secondary sanction muscle from the US (even with Pooh screaming). No one expected the war to last this long. It's the current sanctions combined with the arm shipments and Russia's incompetence in winning this war which led to this total shitshow, which despite dollars in the bank is going to drag Russia down too. The sanctions as they were wouldn't have driven Putin into a corner enough to cut off gas, if he had won the war ... but he didn't so dead Russians and destroyed equipment pile up and Putin has to do something. Everyone is pot committed to a situation they did not anticipate, Ukraine fighting so steadfastly and Russian military being incapable of taking Kiev.
For better or worse three other former Russified nations with lots of Russian speakers which Russia feels are being discriminated against, which was the closest they came to a casus belli for the Ukraine war, are already part of NATO and the EU. Neutrality was never an option.
-
Then we all deserve what is coming, because making Europe dependent on Russia is the most utterly mindless stupidest thing ever. Merkel & Co will go to history as the most failed example of energy policy makers ever. And politicians in other countries who pretend they didn't see this, must bear consequences. Finnish governments after 2014 have been so blind. Now the current government have made the only rational decisions and if we get into NATO, I think other policies vis-à-vis Russia won't be as stupid in the future (of course easy to say now when all cards are on the table).
I don't care anymore, Ukraine is burning, freezing, whatever, so it's our turn to freeze soon. The whole EU will and must bear the consequences collectively and Germany can pay off the failures in the next fifty years. Sorry Brits, I don't think you can escape, you are still too tied up and dependent on EU and you will also suffer.
-
Curious how many Brits reading this thread will join this movement ? Or this is just a noise in UK and its over-blown up by the media ?
-> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/uk-energy-bill-boycott-dont-pay-gains-traction-truss-to-offer-relief.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/uk-energy-bill-boycott-dont-pay-gains-traction-truss-to-offer-relief.html)
(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107113793-1662391233572-gettyimages-1418258232-4l9a0671_f274aa35-7755-4378-8563-7377b3affa83.jpeg?v=1662391377&w=630&h=354&ffmt=webp)
-
So I hope this gives you some background about the stage on which the history biggest economical disaster of this country has been created on. And I'm sure many programmed bots will strongly disagree, but the great thing about facts is, it is totally irrelevant whether one disagrees or agrees with them. And I'm sorry how it's drifting, but it is fundamentally all connected to the gas, and Germany's decision to enable their "green shift" by utilizing cheap natural gas supplied by Russia, and keep doing that even during times it all is falling apart.
Yeah. I never understood Germany's push for natural gas (up to the point where they got the EU to label it as a 'green alternative fuel') in a time where fossil fuel use has to be reduced.
If you look 20+ years back in time, Russia was a stable country with reasonably good leadership. And since a significant part of Russia is in Europe, they made a good trading partner for goods and energy. That opportunity is still there. Again, the problem isn't Russia itself but the people who seized power in Russia and like to bring back the USSR. By now Russia could have been a great economic power but Poetin flushed it all down the drain. Partly by supporting dubious regimes as well.
-
Merkel & Co will go to history as the most failed example of energy policy makers ever.
On the other hand, I also think Germany has done some excellent job at going truly green with renewables.
Doing the right choices, and some REALLY bad choices seems to go hand-in-hand.
Sadly, even at the excellent rate Germany is doing with renewables, wind and solar specifically, it still takes maybe 10 years plus some more investments in energy storage before the grid can be freed from Russian's gas.
The biggest single wrong choice was such total dismissal of nuclear. I don't like nuclear in the long run, but keeping the existing plants running is pretty much a must. Replacing both nuclear and fossils with renewables is a good long-time target, but cutting the dependence on Russian import gas should have been #1 priority, but it was clearly the opposite, the whole green shift was based on having that as the only stable resource.
Dismissal of heatpumps in the energy strategy was also a massive mistake. Now it's there, but 15 years too late.
-
If you look 20+ years back in time, Russia was a stable country with reasonably good leadership. And since a significant part of Russia is in Europe, they made a good trading partner for goods and energy. That opportunity is still there. Again, the problem isn't Russia itself but the people who seized power in Russia and like to bring back the USSR. By now Russia could have been a great economic power but Poetin flushed it all down the drain. Partly by supporting dubious regimes as well.
Good for whom? Certainly not Russians. Country was totally crime-ridden and drowning in poverty. Russians literally call that time "Wild 90s". President was a barely speaking alchoholic who sold out his country to whoever he could. Huge external debt, and therefore external control from IMF and friends. So called oligarchs were stealing remains of government property that were not stolen yet (everything was government owned in USSR). Two wars in Chechnya where Russia fought with basically a terrorist local government within its own borders, while West was crying foul about that. And actually country was not that far away from dividing in separate parts even further. Not to say hyperinflation, not as bad as in Zimbabwe but still, they removed three zeroes when exchanging to new Rubles in 1998 after all. Sure Western "friends" were totally happy with that. Putin for Russians was akin of savior after that experience.
-
And saying it was "stable" 20+ years ago is quite a stretch anyway because the collapse of USSR was so recent back then, so no matter how well things seemed, definitely not stable, it was more about expectations for the future. And you can't predict the future; if you absolutely need stable supply of X, better do that with someone with a really stable long-term track record and mutual understanding of the goals of the cooperation. But then again, the cheap price probably seemed like a good deal.
-
The answer is nuclear power, as well as renewables. There's no need to ban gas heating. There will be excess energy available at some point, which can be used to make synthetic natural gas and oil.
-
There is no need to ban anything, just let the limited natural resource price be controlled by the free market and people have to pay the real price (including the cost of uncertainty), and then people will automagically start buying heatpumps and PV systems without any need to add them to any "energy strategy".
Some amount of fossil fuels are inevitable in chemical processes and natural gas is by-product in oil drilling. In a free market, these products would be cheap until some point in demand, after which they quickly become very expensive. The balance is now on the super-expensive side because they have been artificially cheap for long and normal people did never realize this.
Fossil fuels have excellent synergy with renewables, because small amounts are not a problem for climate, political stability or price, only large volumes are. So it is enough we can supply bulk of our energy needs with renewables. Fossil fuels are trivial to store in annual time scale, so there is nothing wrong burning them when it's -20degC outside so air-source heatpump COP plummets to 1, while simultaneously wind is calm so little wind power is generated, and so on. It's not a problem because such conditions are a tiny percentage of total energy use. Right now the problem is we have to burn the fossils almost all the time, even during trivially good conditions for wind/solar. We still haven't picked the low-hanging fruits.
-
It's only super expensive at the moment due to conflict between governments. It was much cheaper, when the West and Russia were at least civil to one another. It would be even cheaper, if there were a free market.
Obviously it will get more expensive, as resources run out, but it makes sense to switch to nuclear long before then.
-
Geez. The war is not about "being civil" with each other. The war is at the core of this energy thing.
Are you really this oblivious? Do you think it is just a coincidence that there are significant natural gas resources in Eastern Ukraine, and Russia is just, by coincidence, denazifying or being "uncivilized" or whatever crap over there? Really?
No, this is classical demand and response. EU buys huge amounts of natural gas from Russia, because Russia wants to sell natural gas to EU (and elsewhere, too) -> resources are naturally limited -> get more gas, so you can sell more of it! It's no different from the oil wars of Mr. Bush at all, really.
It's really that simple. Above certain threshold of demand, the process of getting cheap fossil fuels involves war. And while war is expensive, the cost of war is never paid by the energy customers, even though the whole war really existed for the fuel.
Of course war is always decorated with some rationalization (weapons of mass destruction! denazification!), but modern wars are really all about energy, and specifically ---
FOSSIL FUELS.
-
Do you think it is just a coincidence that there are significant natural gas resources in Eastern Ukraine, and Russia is just, by coincidence, denazifying or being "uncivilized" or whatever crap over there? Really?
Russia's gas reserves dwarf Ukraine's. The cost in lives, man power and economic efficiency isn't remotely worth it. Though I don't think Putin planned to bury quite this many Russians, but he's pot committed too.
No, this is classical demand and response. EU buys huge amounts of natural gas from Russia, because Russia wants to sell natural gas to EU (and elsewhere, too) -> resources are naturally limited -> get more gas, so you can sell more of it! It's no different from the oil wars of Mr. Bush at all, really.
Which didn't generate enough income for American companies to cover the cost to the American economy and also weren't about oil in the sense of gaining access to it. They were about oil in the sense of keeping Saudi Arabia happy and the Middle East functional. America world cop, but mostly doing it for free.
-
(...)
Of course war is always decorated with some rationalization (weapons of mass destruction! denazification!), but modern wars are really all about energy, and specifically ---
All wars in history have always been all about energy actually, in the general sense (access to resources and territory, that's ultimately "energy" we get from that.)
FOSSIL FUELS.
If you think that's only due to fossil fuels, IMHO you'd be deluded. There will still be energy wars when we stop using fossil fuels. Maybe even more of them, as things are possibly going to get more unstable when we reach that point, at least for quite a while. We'll just displace the quest to other resources (both natural resources and human), and I doubt it's going to help much in terms of stability. Just a thought.
-
All wars in history have always been all about energy actually, in the general sense (access to resources and territory, that's ultimately "energy" we get from that.)
Nah that's just slightly more pretentious conspiracy thinking. History for the most part gets it right, wars get started over the silliest shit. It might be comforting to think there are cabals with Real Politik reasons hidden below the surface and singular official leaders of major countries can't just have that much power to act purely on ego and ideology, but there really aren't and they really do.
Putin's article ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ really does completely explain what the war is about, it's not about natural or even human resources (additional Russians working inside the Russian economy proper is far more essential to Russia than some piddly little gas reserves or more land). Which is why it's so dangerous, because it applies to a lot of other Russified nations of the former Russian empire, among which the Baltics.
-
(...)
Of course war is always decorated with some rationalization (weapons of mass destruction! denazification!), but modern wars are really all about energy, and specifically ---
All wars in history have always been all about energy actually, in the general sense (access to resources and territory, that's ultimately "energy" we get from that.)
Resources such as energy, land and food are catalysts for conflict but they're not the only ones. Ethnicity is a big cause of war WW2 was a classic example. Religion can also trigger war, although it's debatable whether it's religion in itself which is responsible, or it's used as a justification.
Do you think it is just a coincidence that there are significant natural gas resources in Eastern Ukraine, and Russia is just, by coincidence, denazifying or being "uncivilized" or whatever crap over there? Really?
Russia's gas reserves dwarf Ukraine's. The cost in lives, man power and economic efficiency isn't remotely worth it. Though I don't think Putin planned to bury quite this many Russians, but he's pot committed too.
The are lots of Russians in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_Majority_Language_Map_2001.png). The war is about ethnicity, not energy.
Relying on others for essential resources. Is a bad thing. We need to work both on establishing free trade, putting our differences aside, was well as becoming more self-sufficient.
-
For centuries, south-eastern Ukraine was a wilderness made unlivable by regular looting and slave hunts by various nomads and peripheral puppets of the Ottoman empire. Ukrainians were the first civilized people to set their foot there, Russians were the first to end the looting and actually civilize the region. It's been a never ending conflict ever since. Natural resources surely play a role, but likely aren't worth it alone and AFAIK it's mostly coal and iron, not gas. I see no reason to disbelieve Putin when he says that strategic military considerations were the primary trigger of the current war.
Anyone who thinks that Putin is unpopular in Russia should read wraper's post. That's what the collapse of the commie block looked like and people weren't happy about many things that happened then and many aren't still. Most everything originally nationalized by the commies (i.e., just about everything) was stolen by corrupt officials and sold for bribes to Western "investors", who subsequently shut down whole companies because they weren't all that efficient and it was the time of the great outsourcing to China anyway.
-
It works both ways. Europe will have to make do with shutting down industries and rationing energy to citizens until they build up sufficient infrastructure to be dependant on imports from other countries. You think their newfound dependance on LNG from the USA is the best solution? Same problem, different country.
Similarly, Russia is learning to survive without western technology, but they have enough for the short term. They'll be reviving local development and getting stuff from China and Iran. But they've no shortage of energy, so nobody is going to be cold or shut down this winter for that reason. Ditto food production and many other resources.
We'll not get into how dependant the USA currently is on China as a trade partner...the current effort to revive chip production in the USA is very telling.
-
Russia is learning to survive without western technology,
surely you mean relearn,as they did during the cold war
-
Two wars in Chechnya where Russia fought with basically a terrorist local government within its own borders, while West was crying foul about that.
Chechnya declared independence (as Ichkeria), and first their government definitely wasn't a 'terrorist'. They have done some bad things only being in a desperate position. Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, was leveled to the ground by the russian army. Tens or even hundreds of thousands of civilian people were killed by russians across that two wars. The first president of Chechnya - Djohar Dudaev was very intelligent man, and he was elected by the people at the election. He was killed by russians in 1996 (it was First Russia-Chechen war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War) if I'm not wrong).
Dzhokhar Dudayev biography (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzhokhar_Dudayev):
Dudayev rose steadily in the Air Force, assuming command of the 326th Heavy Bomber Aviation Division of the Soviet Long Range Aviation at Tartu, Estonia, in 1987 gaining the rank of Major-General. From 1987 through March 1990, he commanded nuclear-armed long-range strategic bombers during his post there.[8][11][a]. He was also commander of the garrison of Tartu. He learned Estonian and showed great tolerance for Estonian nationalism when in autumn 1990 he ignored the orders (as commander of the garrison of Tartu) to shut down the Estonian television and parliament.[4][8] In 1990, his air division was withdrawn from Estonia and Dudayev resigned from the Soviet military.
-
A lesson for EU politicians and their electorates:
whom you should pray to ( gas supplier ) , you should not anger
-
It works both ways. Europe will have to make do with shutting down industries
A lot of those generic industries won't survive the transition to renewable energy anyway. Only the very high-tech, highly specialised companies that have second to none products will survive. There are many of such companies across Europe. I'm not worried at all.
-
Sometimes i am wondering whether the LNG from USA will be russian gas in the end.
Regards, Dieter
-
We'll not get into how dependant the USA currently is on China as a trade partner...the current effort to revive chip production in the USA is very telling.
Yes, theres chips, and a whole lot of other general electronics stuff.......soon, we wont have access to any of it, when "the other imminent invasion", related to the Russian invasion, gets underway.
Some British Army prototype military drones use Chinese electric drives.
I dont think withdrawing support for Ukraine is an option, no matter how cold it gets this winter....things will just end up getting even worse, and even colder, for Ukraine and the rest of us, if we do.
By the way, i have a design for a "diverter electric shower", which allows low energy showering, if anyones interested in getting some investment to build it.
You can turn it on and off easily, and dont get frozen or scolded when it comes back on......and it keeps shutting the water off every 30 seconds.
-
Invading Taiwan would involve 1000x more losses than Ukraine, China doesn't have 10s of millions to throw away on a fools errand. Blockade or throwing a nuke off the coast to force them into surrender are options, invasion is not.
-
Invading Taiwan would involve 1000x more losses than Ukraine, China doesn't have 10s of millions to throw away on a fools errand. Blockade or throwing a nuke off the coast to force them into surrender are options, invasion is not.
The Chinese electronics industry needs TSMC to continue production...
-
Invading Taiwan would involve 1000x more losses than Ukraine, China doesn't have 10s of millions to throw away on a fools errand. Blockade or throwing a nuke off the coast to force them into surrender are options, invasion is not.
The Chinese electronics industry needs TSMC to continue production...
Yeah they at least need to wait until the new US facility gets into production.
-
You're going to jail for heating your home, in
evil communist of North Kore .... errrr wait ... in Switzerland. :scared:
-> https://switzerlandtimes.ch/politics/heat-sinners-face-jail/
Quote ...
Heat sinners face jail
Anyone who turns the heating up too high when there is a lack of energy must expect a penalty.
If there is not enough gas in winter, the federal government wants to crack down. In buildings heated with gas, the interior rooms should be brought to a maximum of 19 C degrees (66.2 degrees Fahrenheit). Hot water should only be heated to 60 C degrees (140 degrees Fahrenheit).
Radiant heaters or warm air tents would be forbidden. Saunas and swimming pools would have to stay cold.
But it gets even worse: Anyone who violates the guidelines faces imprisonment or a fine. In the case of intentional action, a prison sentence of up to three years or a fine is possible. Even in the case of negligent violations of the measures, a fine of up to 180 daily rates is conceivable.
-
Rationing is the only moral way to divide non luxury goods in a crisis.
The alternative is social Darwinism.
-
The Chinese electronics industry needs TSMC to continue production...
Yeah, and currently they can buy from TSMC like anyone else, and TSMC delivers just fine AFAIK. It's normal risk analysis: by taking over it violently, you could gain maybe some cost savings, maybe some technology improvements or better priorization when it is yours, but you risk losing it all for years or even longer.
My personal guesstimate is Chinese are not stupid to take that risk. China is doing pretty well IMHO, and their resources are better spent on creating competition on the mainland.
-
The biggest question is whether China is 'thinking' rationally about invading Taiwan or not. They'd be shooting a hole the size of the moon in their feet but might still do it out of nationalistic sentiment (in order to draw the attention away from problems brewing inside China).
-
A lesson for EU politicians and their electorates:
whom you should pray to ( gas supplier ) , you should not anger
No, the lesson is yet again "never put most/all your eggs in the same basket".
-
The biggest question is whether China is 'thinking' rationally about invading Taiwan or not. They'd be shooting a hole the size of the moon in their feet but might still do it out of nationalistic sentiment (in order to draw the attention away from problems brewing inside China).
One bigger question yet is whether you (or anyone here really) fully knows the ins and outs of China's politics in general and what's related to Taiwan in particular. The most probable answer is: absolutely not.
It's really concerning IMHO that so many people seem to take non-western countries as just completely clueless and irrational (while they are currently rising at a pace we never have). It's definitively as though we are completely unable to think outside of our small western box.
That is *our* problem and that's exactly what those countries are currently telling us. That includes all BRICS really. India seems "softer" but don't underestimate them either. Are we sure we are worth more, are morally better and have the capacity of fighting against China, Russia and India (and probably a lot of their allies)? Just wondering.
-
A lesson for EU politicians and their electorates:
whom you should pray to ( gas supplier ) , you should not anger
No, the lesson is yet again "never put most/all your eggs in the same basket".
And don't ignore the sabre rattling and testing the boundaries of what EU, NATO and others would accept (lie down and roll over) of these last few years.
Now you have to enjoy the most dangerous administration in the last 100 years as your neighbor ......well done Europe ! :clap:
-
It's really concerning IMHO that so many people seem to take non-western countries as just completely clueless and irrational (while they are currently rising at a pace we never have). It's definitively as though we are completely unable to think outside of our small western box.
To that I want to add they talk as if Western countries are some kind of holy beacon of rightfulness and everyone else should adhere to their agenda. I may blow your mind, but Western countries have only a relatively small part of total world population. And other countries which have majority of population have their own interests which often are very different, not to say contradictory. In other words, would you work for your own sake, or would do everything just as your neighbor says in his own interests? Even though he's a guy everyone respects.
-
It works both ways. Europe will have to make do with shutting down industries
A lot of those generic industries won't survive the transition to renewable energy anyway. Only the very high-tech, highly specialised companies that have second to none products will survive. There are many of such companies across Europe. I'm not worried at all.
What makes you think that high-tech isn't energy intensive？Did you know that TSMC is biggest power consumer in TW，a single EUV machine consumes 30k kWh per day. It is anticipated that by 2025 TSMC will consume 25% of entire Taiwan electricity. Not to mention data centers AI trainings etc，the needs for computational power is growing and it requires lots of power.
-
It works both ways. Europe will have to make do with shutting down industries
A lot of those generic industries won't survive the transition to renewable energy anyway. Only the very high-tech, highly specialised companies that have second to none products will survive. There are many of such companies across Europe. I'm not worried at all.
What makes you think that high-tech isn't energy intensive？Did you know that TSMC is biggest power consumer in TW，a single EUV machine consumes 30k kWh per day. It is anticipated that by 2025 TSMC will consume 25% of entire Taiwan electricity. Not to mention data centers AI trainings etc，the needs for computational power is growing and it requires lots of power.
That is not my point. High-tech industry creates a lot of value. An old, inefficient steel factory that produces the kind of generic steel you can produce anywhere on the world, does not. Especially in a place with high energy costs.
-
The biggest question is whether China is 'thinking' rationally about invading Taiwan or not. They'd be shooting a hole the size of the moon in their feet but might still do it out of nationalistic sentiment (in order to draw the attention away from problems brewing inside China).
One bigger question yet is whether you (or anyone here really) fully knows the ins and outs of China's politics in general and what's related to Taiwan in particular. The most probable answer is: absolutely not.
It's really concerning IMHO that so many people seem to take non-western countries as just completely clueless and irrational (while they are currently rising at a pace we never have). It's definitively as though we are completely unable to think outside of our small western box.
You are right up to a point but there are some universal values that all people want. Being able to live safely for example. Human rights violations are a big issue in China and you can't sweep that under the rug while declaring 'that is how their culture works'.
Some parts of a culture aren't perfect and western countries are no exception. In the Netherlands we have the ongoing discussion about 'black pete' (not to be mistaken for blackface; but some people do) which is deeply rooted in Dutch culture and goes back several centuries. But we (the Dutch people) are willing to listen to complaints and slowly change our habbits. That is where the difference is: being willing to listen to others and not stick to dogmas / telling people not to interfere with internal affairs.
OTOH the Chinese also know that some parts of their culture aren't positive. Like spitting on the floor for example which they are trying to ban.
-
It's really concerning IMHO that so many people seem to take non-western countries as just completely clueless and irrational (while they are currently rising at a pace we never have). It's definitively as though we are completely unable to think outside of our small western box.
That is *our* problem and that's exactly what those countries are currently telling us. That includes all BRICS really. India seems "softer" but don't underestimate them either. Are we sure we are worth more, are morally better and have the capacity of fighting against China, Russia and India (and probably a lot of their allies)? Just wondering.
Western media always portray articles in a western-centric fashion，substitute the world "west" with "global".
Such as "the global campaign against Russia aggression"，which is actually limited within the west. I saw an article a while ago，it's about improving US-developing countries relation，it mentioned that many developing countries are very unhappy about the West took action against Russia without consulting with them，because the disrupted Russian food and fuel supply created massive crisis in many developing countries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMoSp9c9OsA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMoSp9c9OsA)
Same thing with Taiwan issue. I don't think any country outside of western camp supports TW's stance，or dispute China's stance on TW. But of course，western media will tell you that "the global community" is on TW's side.
-
To that I want to add they talk as if Western countries are some kind of holy beacon of rightfulness and everyone else should adhere to their agenda. I may blow your mind, but Western countries have only a relatively small part of total world population. And other countries which have majority of population have their own interests which often are very different, not to say contradictory. In other words, would you work for your own sake, or would do everything just as your neighbor says in his own interests? Even though he's a guy everyone respects.
It's all a matter of perspective. I think almost anyone will feel that their own country, way of life, or that which is familiar to them is the way to go. Some people take this too far, but that is part of the human condition.
-
The biggest question is whether China is 'thinking' rationally about invading Taiwan or not. They'd be shooting a hole the size of the moon in their feet but might still do it out of nationalistic sentiment (in order to draw the attention away from problems brewing inside China).
One bigger question yet is whether you (or anyone here really) fully knows the ins and outs of China's politics in general and what's related to Taiwan in particular. The most probable answer is: absolutely not.
It's really concerning IMHO that so many people seem to take non-western countries as just completely clueless and irrational (while they are currently rising at a pace we never have). It's definitively as though we are completely unable to think outside of our small western box.
That is *our* problem and that's exactly what those countries are currently telling us. That includes all BRICS really. India seems "softer" but don't underestimate them either. Are we sure we are worth more, are morally better and have the capacity of fighting against China, Russia and India (and probably a lot of their allies)? Just wondering.
Its all about narratives that suits the geo-political agenda by the US and the West.
For those who are old enough to remember in late 70s and 80s where the whole Western narrative to named Iran the "axis of evil" just because no more freebie on Iran's oil. Lately this is going to change as energy crisis hit EU, and become friendlier and softer to Iran as all US & EU wants is to reduce the pressure on the energy price globally and ease the paint inflicted by themself by banning Russia energy.
Lately for the last 5 to 10 years, the narrative from the West is shifting and accelerating really fast on demonizing China, watch carefully the shift on "the narrative", soon China will be labelled "axis of evil" and the great threat of Western ... err .. I mean international rule based order. :-DD
The similar scene is also happening in Europe, where the old narrative ... "we hate evil Putin, not Russians" is now shifting ... we hate all Russians, ban Russia culture/language/people and etc, you're smart to enough to recognize this pattern like the old one so called the "3rd Reich". >:D
The sense of "entitlement" and superiority to criticize, lecture and to "fix" other countries is rooted on the colonialism mentality that the West have been enjoying for the past few centuries, but this is about to change, and its happening fast.
Suggestion, sometimes one needs to question self, why hate so much on certain countries/regimes/leaders, while sort of ignores others even they're nastier than your own standard (eg: Arab Saudi as easy example), is it possible what ever you hate or like is all artificially implanted (brainwashed) for decades by your own government and medias ?
-
You are right up to a point but there are some universal values that all people want. Being able to live safely for example. Human rights violations are a big issue in China and you can't sweep that under the rug while declaring 'that is how their culture works'.
I guess with my post above on Switzerland's tyranny on jailing people who want to heat their own home, even they can afford it, is your concern too, right ?
Fyi, there are lot of rich people in Swiss, eg : Klaus Schwab and others.
Rather than "worry" for people at far-far away land China and Taiwan, why don't Dutch starting to deal with the "human right" issue in Switzerland as its so nearby ? >:D
The argument is simple, if you do not have the right and freedom to heat your own home as you like, then as to guard & protect :-DD the international rule based order, Dutch or EU countries must start to pressure/lecture or even fix Switzerland, sanction them, or even better topple their evil government that violate basic human right to get warm home, and support the opposition there.
Yeah, its all about fixing the narrative to suit your political agenda, isn't it ? So convenient.
-
The similar scene is also happening in Europe, where the old narrative ... "we hate evil Putin, not Russians" is now shifting ... we hate all Russians, ban Russia culture/language/people and etc, you're smart to enough to recognize this pattern like the old one so called the "3rd Reich". >:D
Oh yeah, Latvian government right now actively destroys all remaining Soviet era monuments supposedly because of evil Putin.
-
Rationing is the only moral way to divide non luxury goods in a crisis.
Yes, it is either ration energy, or force people to pay 10-20x more so that they self-ration. I know I'd rather have rationing.
And frankly 19C home is fine! If you feel a little chilly then wear a long sleeve t-shirt and a jumper, and you will be absolutely fine.
-
you're smart to enough to recognize this pattern like the old one so called the "3rd Reich".
Can you all Putin defenders just join his "3rd Reich" project so we can get some real tech and energy discussions here.
The argument is simple, if you do not have the right and freedom to heat your own home as you like
I've also heard that in some countries, people can be deprived of their freedom or even be forced to pay, if they drive faster than a certain speed limit! We are doomed!
On a serious note, ever heard of energy rationing? This is pretty much turning into war time and there is only one main actor to blame.
-
because the disrupted Russian food and fuel supply created massive crisis in many developing countries.
I haven't heard about West sanctions to Russian food and fuel supply to developing countries. Can you give an example of such (but not a cite from Putin's speech)?
-
because the disrupted Russian food and fuel supply created massive crisis in many developing countries.
I haven't heard about West sanctions to Russian food and fuel supply to developing countries. Can you give an example of such (but not a cite from Putin's speech)?
Sanctions are not on food as such. But on money transfer and transportation. Which makes it much more difficult to pay and transport. The result was food shortage and large price increase, and who do you think has the least money to pay while others snatch it right under their nose at higher price? Look at current situation with Ukraine and Russia reaching agreement to allow tankers with food leaving Ukrainian ports. And Zelenskyy boasting it's for saving Africa. Guess what, none of them have gone to Africa, all gone where they get paid more.
-
agreement to allow tankers with food leaving Ukrainian ports. And Zelenskyy boasting it's for saving Africa. Guess what, none of them have gone to Africa, all gone where they get paid more.
Tankers went to clients who bought that corn. If African countries haven't bought anything (I don't know) - is that a Zelenskyy's or Ukrainians fault?
Is it bad when Ukraine have a possibility to sell it's products abroad? An agriculture is about 25% (or more) of the whole Ukrainian export and income. So Ukraine can't sustain it's economy without it.
PS.: Are you really happy to protect Russian invasion to Ukraine and to spread Putin's agenda?
-
Russia effectively sanctioned Ukrainian grain by blockading the Black Sea. There are not sufficient land routes to get grain into international markets otherwise.
Anyway, it does not matter too much where the grain from Ukraine goes because allowing more grain into the market will cause prices to fall regardless.
Also let's not forget that Russia stole a load of Ukrainian grain too: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61790625 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61790625)
-
On a serious note, ever heard of energy rationing? This is pretty much turning into war time and there is only one main actor to blame.
Don't let your (justified) anger misguide you. Energy crisis is much more complex than that.
Remember December 2021? People panic-switching from spot contracts back to fixed contracts because all time high prices exceeding 1EUR/kWh? I'm at loss how people collectively forgot this so quickly and started to talk about "Putin's prices" when this is just repeating.
Remember winter 2020? Grids of Sweden and Finland both on the brink of collapse. Fingrid reserve power plants running. Yet we are told in media "oh, nothing's going on, it was just a coincidence, we wanted to test run all these facilities, no worries at all". And we did import from Sweden who kindly supplied us despite their own shortage.
So there is nothing new here. Root cause is poor political choices all over Europe for decades and decades. We can only blame our own politicians, and ourselves for voting them.
-
On a serious note, ever heard of energy rationing? This is pretty much turning into war time and there is only one main actor to blame.
Energy rationing is easy to achieve by controlling gas stations, and turning off mains power at selected times. However, I wonder what they can do with gas, which seems to be the thing with the biggest supply problem? Don't they need careful procedures to prevent explosions when turning the public gas supply off and on? I'm not sure. I've never seen the flow of gas stop since it was first turned on.
-
Russia effectively sanctioned Ukrainian grain by blockading the Black Sea. There are not sufficient land routes to get grain into international markets otherwise.
Anyway, it does not matter too much where the grain from Ukraine goes because allowing more grain into the market will cause prices to fall regardless.
Also let's not forget that Russia stole a load of Ukrainian grain too: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61790625 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61790625)
Ukrainians placed sea mines too to prevent Russians invading from the sea. So it was not as simple as just Russians allowing food tankers to pass.
-
Ukrainians placed sea mines too to prevent Russians invading from the sea. So it was not a simple as just Russians allowing food tankers to pass.
And part of the agreement was that Ukraine would guide the ships through the unmined areas. This is not news. The problem is that Russia decided to invade Ukraine. You cannot justify Russia's actions here, because they have no moral or legal justification.
-
Don't let your (justified) anger misguide you. Energy crisis is much more complex than that.
Of course it is politics that has caused the practical problems, whether it's countries shutting down NPP (Germany, Sweden), too much reliance on gas (Germany) or too much reliance on energy import (Finland). Now the Finnish national grid's (Finngrid) CEO recently stated that next year Finland will for the first time in 50 years produce as much electricity in a year as consumed. Not sure about peak capacity, though. Finngrid has 1.3 GW reserve capacity that can be started in 10-15 minutes. Two of these power plants already ran last night due to the exceptionally cold night. So there's nothing surprising to have reserve capacity running, it's part of the overall electrical supply contingency.
California grid had yesterday an all time high peak of 52 GW and texted all citizens to lower electrical consumption to avoid having to shut off parts of the grid. People listened and instantly lowered electrical consumption with several GW.
-
Ukrainians placed sea mines too to prevent Russians invading from the sea. So it was not a simple as just Russians allowing food tankers to pass.
And part of the agreement was that Ukraine would guide the ships through the unmined areas. This is not news. The problem is that Russia decided to invade Ukraine. You cannot justify Russia's actions here, because they have no moral or legal justification.
I do not justify anything. I say it's all not as simple or straightforward as you say. I may understand/explain why Russia does something. Does not mean I justify their action of war.
-
Energy rationing is easy to achieve by controlling gas stations, and turning off mains power at selected times. However, I wonder what they can do with gas, which seems to be the thing with the biggest supply problem? Don't they need careful procedures to prevent explosions when turning the public gas supply off and on? I'm not sure. I've never seen the flow of gas stop since it was first turned on.
I wonder if you reduce the gas pressure to domestic properties, it may limit the rate at which gas appliances can use gas. Boilers will not be able to burn as much gas, and won't produce as much heat. However, I think the issue is that this would lead to varying pressure as more appliances turn on, which could create some issues.
-
Energy rationing is easy to achieve by controlling gas stations, and turning off mains power at selected times. However, I wonder what they can do with gas, which seems to be the thing with the biggest supply problem? Don't they need careful procedures to prevent explosions when turning the public gas supply off and on? I'm not sure. I've never seen the flow of gas stop since it was first turned on.
I wonder if you reduce the gas pressure to domestic properties, it may limit the rate at which gas appliances can use gas. Boilers will not be able to burn as much gas, and won't produce as much heat. However, I think the issue is that this would lead to varying pressure as more appliances turn on, which could create some issues.
Judging by the time to boil water on the hob, gas pressure does vary quite a bit. The gas energy content does change, depending on the source (its not pure methane by any means). That's a relatively long term change, though, and is adjusted for in pricing. Boil times seem to vary with the time of day.
-
The problem is that Russia decided to invade Ukraine. You cannot justify Russia's actions here
If it only were that simple. Have you seen any of these:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPXDAOv6gXa3Xsx-rKLYd0W1LvhjlwCTk (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPXDAOv6gXa3Xsx-rKLYd0W1LvhjlwCTk)
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7imSoPkNITXIq7yhbh_rv35fqK7kFiAx (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7imSoPkNITXIq7yhbh_rv35fqK7kFiAx)
?
The problem is that both sides have their own kind of reasons to do what they are doing, or what they already did. It is more complicated than just x-good, y-bad.
I think what we are seeing now in Ukraine is the followup of foreign influences over Ukraine from the last decade, and not just a caprice of Russia this spring.
Now, putting aside the Russia-Ukraine for a moment, and talking about the whole western world, I am not yet sure if the "collapse driven by our own governments" that we are witnessing lately is intentional or not. To me, with each day it all seems more and more like a maleficent plot, and not just an unhappy train of events.
-
Now, putting aside the Russia-Ukraine for a moment, and talking about the whole western world, I am not yet sure if the "collapse driven by our own governments" that we are witnessing lately is intentional or not. To me, with each day it all seems more and more like a maleficent plot, and not just an unhappy train of events.
The crisis that EU countries are facing was planned, "NOT" a back fired clumsy plan, its working as intended.
What are you witnessing is the massive power grab by EU officials (not elected by the people directly), to make Brussel sort of pseudo state that holds absolute great power above many of EU countries, and this is the right moment at the right time to do it, while keeps the escape goat the super villain Putin.
Watch how EU officials (NOT NATO) are now talking like NATO leaders, like talking to train troops, increasing military budget, send weapons to Ukraine and etc, the line dividing between EU and NATO is becoming so blur, don't you agree ? >:D
Simple example, does Hungary's Victor Orban rings a bell ? He is fighting Brussels for the sake of "HIS OWN" people Hungarians, what is wrong with that ? He is now is most EU hated head of state, and being accused of Putin sympathizer. All he is done is to protect his own people and country's interest, which the reason he gets elected from the 1st place, not those EU officials.
The collapsed of EU countries governments (which is elected by the people) is happening day by day, I see you carry Romanian flag, do you think your country still have it's sovereignty on it's own ? Say on energy policy, money/budget policy (example what happened in the past like on Greece where the ordinary people's money in their bank can be freezed overnight just because Brussels said so) and many others.
The weakened state and weakened head of state (even elected by the people) , are the perfect combination to subdue a nation completely, and this time its happening in mass throughout the EU countries, amazing and scary at the same time IMO.
Btw, every times when appointing top EU officials (like at NATO), they must be blessed by Washington 1st or no go at all, its a public secret. >:D
-
I think what we are seeing now in Ukraine is the followup of foreign influences over Ukraine from the last decade, and not just a caprice of Russia this spring.
Ukraine saw what the EU did for Poland and the Baltics on one side and what Russia does for its people on the other ... much like the Trump election, foreign influence games are hopelessly overstated in importance.
Revolutions and civil wars are a messy business, meh. The mess in Donbass would have been less messy if they had simply been overrun without Putin's military aid and irregular soldiers. Which is ultimately why Putin had to invade, he felt pot committed to supporting Russian speakers in Donbass but simply giving weapons and planting irregulars would have stopped working sooner or later.
-
Energy rationing is easy to achieve by controlling gas stations, and turning off mains power at selected times. However, I wonder what they can do with gas, which seems to be the thing with the biggest supply problem? Don't they need careful procedures to prevent explosions when turning the public gas supply off and on? I'm not sure. I've never seen the flow of gas stop since it was first turned on.
I wonder if you reduce the gas pressure to domestic properties, it may limit the rate at which gas appliances can use gas. Boilers will not be able to burn as much gas, and won't produce as much heat. However, I think the issue is that this would lead to varying pressure as more appliances turn on, which could create some issues.
That may work for a stove (hob) but something like a boiler or furnace will have an internal regulator. I've installed a handful of gas forced air furnaces and an important part of installation is measuring the gas pressure at the inlet and outlet of the gas valve and adjusting the pressure to within a specific range then clocking the meter to check the flow. If the pressure is too high it can damage the heat exchangers by overheating and prevent condensing in the secondary exchanger. If it's too low you can have condensation in the primary exchanger which will then rapidly corrode. I would not operate an appliance if the incoming gas pressure was not within spec.
-
Watch how EU officials (NOT NATO) are now talking like NATO leaders, like talking to train troops, increasing military budget, send weapons to Ukraine and etc, the line dividing between EU and NATO is becoming so blur, don't you agree ? >:D
I don't really understand this, NATO is a collection of countries, there isn't some sort para-leadership - they are the same people?
The problem with Orban is his determination to steam-roller through European unity, a divided europe is far more malleable to external factors, difference between being in the driving seat, or just along for the ride.
As for the EU being in the pockets of the USA, sure to some degree, but it's hard to align the reality of the last 20 years in the EU with the wishes of the White House.
-
However, I wonder what they can do with gas, which seems to be the thing with the biggest supply problem? Don't they need careful procedures to prevent explosions when turning the public gas supply off and on? I'm not sure. I've never seen the flow of gas stop since it was first turned on.
Yes, you never turn off domestic gas supplies as there's a risk of problems (explosions) upon restoring supply. However if you turn off electricity to an area you will find that gas consumption reduces dramatically - which is convenient.
-
I wonder if you reduce the gas pressure to domestic properties, it may limit the rate at which gas appliances can use gas. Boilers will not be able to burn as much gas, and won't produce as much heat. However, I think the issue is that this would lead to varying pressure as more appliances turn on, which could create some issues.
Gas distribution systems here all have local (typically per-user/per-meter) pressure regulators that reduce the gas to the very low ~0.25 bar that the appliances need. The distribution system is at much higher pressure and reducing that won't affect the pressure at the point of use.
-
I wonder if you reduce the gas pressure to domestic properties, it may limit the rate at which gas appliances can use gas. Boilers will not be able to burn as much gas, and won't produce as much heat. However, I think the issue is that this would lead to varying pressure as more appliances turn on, which could create some issues.
Gas distribution systems here all have local (typically per-user/per-meter) pressure regulators that reduce the gas to the very low ~0.25 bar that the appliances need. The distribution system is at much higher pressure and reducing that won't affect the pressure at the point of use.
They do here too. I expect the variations people are seeing in the time it takes to boil a kettle are more to do with the ambient temperature, temperature of the water prior to boiling, and volume of water being boiled, than anything else.
-
I expect the variations people are seeing in the time it takes to boil a kettle are more to do with the ambient temperature, temperature of the water prior to boiling, and volume of water being boiled, than anything else.[/color][/size][/b]
I'm not suggesting that this is the case, but can they change the gas "blend", resulting in fewer BTUs per unit?
-
I'm not suggesting that this is the case, but can they change the gas "blend", resulting in fewer BTUs per unit?
Definitely, but #1 reason would be people measuring neither the volume of water nor time even if they seem confident about these parameters.
-
I'm not suggesting that this is the case, but can they change the gas "blend", resulting in fewer BTUs per unit?
Yes, to an extent. This actually happens routinely as the blend changes depending on sources, etc and that is why the typical gas bill is per 'therm', which is a unit of energy. Your meter measures the volume and then the gas company applies a correction factor based on the average energy content of the gas over the billing period to convert the volume to therms.
-
I'm not suggesting that this is the case, but can they change the gas "blend", resulting in fewer BTUs per unit?
They can't avoid changing the blend. Natural gas has a high percentage of methane wherever it comes from, but other gases are in their too. Those gases vary from gas field to gas field, As a utility changes its sources of natural gas the blend and the calorific value changes. Depending where you live there may be something on your bill which is a correction factor for the average calorific content of the gas supplied in your area over the billing period.
-
I expect the variations people are seeing in the time it takes to boil a kettle are more to do with the ambient temperature, temperature of the water prior to boiling, and volume of water being boiled, than anything else.[/color][/size][/b]
I'm not suggesting that this is the case, but can they change the gas "blend", resulting in fewer BTUs per unit?
No. The burner would need to be replaced. There are several different types of natural gas with various levels of nitrogen content.
-
I expect the variations people are seeing in the time it takes to boil a kettle are more to do with the ambient temperature, temperature of the water prior to boiling, and volume of water being boiled, than anything else.[/color][/size][/b]
I'm not suggesting that this is the case, but can they change the gas "blend", resulting in fewer BTUs per unit?
No. The burner would need to be replaced. There are several different types of natural gas with various levels of nitrogen content.
I know about burner replacement (we live in the country and use propane), but apparently piped natural gas can indeed be blended to some extent. Probably not enough to be noticeable when heating the teakettle though.
-
I expect the variations people are seeing in the time it takes to boil a kettle are more to do with the ambient temperature, temperature of the water prior to boiling, and volume of water being boiled, than anything else.[/color][/size][/b]
I'm not suggesting that this is the case, but can they change the gas "blend", resulting in fewer BTUs per unit?
No. The burner would need to be replaced. There are several different types of natural gas with various levels of nitrogen content.
The variability of natural gas is mostly the mix of methane, ethane, butane, ethene. etc.
-
If it only were that simple.
One more Russian advocate? :palm:
Do you think it is ok to spread russhist propaganda here?
Let me continue this your narrative: 'It isn't that simple and possibly Ukraine is so bad too so it bombs itself to make Russia look bad.' /s
-
Revolutions and civil wars are a messy business, meh. The mess in Donbass would have been less messy if they had simply been overrun without Putin's military aid
There wasn't any mess in Dobass without Russia. Only Russia started it, heated it, and wanted to show it as a 'civil war' so it could almost legally 'protect' Donbas with it's 'peacemaker forces', as it had done it in Transnistria or Abkhasia, etc. Russian FSB officer Igor Girkin (Strelkov) (now former officer) with its russian squad entered the Donbas from occupied Crimea and started combat operations with Ukrainian police, and after with Ukrainian anti-terrorist forces.
After installing a russian puppet administration in Lugansk and Donetst (major Donbass cities) Girkin resigned.
Later after that (I don't remember the exact year - 2017, 2018?) Girkin (Strelkov) even honestly admitted in an interview on youtube that it was he who lit this fire and started a real mess in Donbas.
About Girkin on Wikipedia (https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%93%D1%96%D1%80%D0%BA%D1%96%D0%BD_%D0%86%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80_%D0%92%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87#%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D0%B0%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%96%D1%8F_%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D0%B8)
Here are his exact words (November, 2014):
"All the same, I pulled the trigger of the war. If our detachment had not crossed the border, as a result, everything would have ended, as in Kharkiv, as in Odesa. There would have been several dozen people killed, burned, arrested. And that would have been the end. And practically the flywheel of the war, which is still ongoing, launched our squad. We mixed all the cards on the table. That's it! And from the very beginning we began to fight seriously: to destroy subversive groups of right-wingers," Girkin said.
He added that he is also responsible for the further development of the military conflict, including after leaving Donbas.
"I am personally responsible for what is happening there. I am responsible for the fact that Donetsk is still being shelled. I am also responsible for the fact that Sloviansk is abandoned. And for the fact that it has not been released, I am also responsible bear responsibility," Girkin said.
He also admitted that the decisive role in the counteroffensive of the separatists in August 2014 was played by military personnel who came from Russia.
-
Ukrainians placed sea mines too to prevent Russians invading from the sea. So it was not a simple as just Russians allowing food tankers to pass.
And part of the agreement was that Ukraine would guide the ships through the unmined areas. This is not news. The problem is that Russia decided to invade Ukraine. You cannot justify Russia's actions here, because they have no moral or legal justification.
I do not justify anything. I say it's all not as simple or straightforward as you say. I may understand/explain why Russia does something. Does not mean I justify their action of war.
That's also what I've being doing.
Going back to the point I made about the ethnic component to the war. Here's a thought experiment. If the war were to end today. What do you think would happen to all those ethnic Russians living in Eastern Ukraine? Does anyone seriously believe they would be accepted back into society without any problems? A big reason for the war, was the Ukrainian Russians not being happy with the country becoming more aligned to the West. Putin believes he is helping them. I can't see this ending soon. I can see parallels with the troubles in Northern Ireland.
-
What do you think would happen to all those ethnic Russians living in Eastern Ukraine?
Do you think 'ethnic Russians' live only in Eastern Ukraine (but not all over Ukraine)? What do you think happen and happening now to them all over Ukraine? |O
Do you really think we eat or crusify Russian babies for breakfast (as it was shown by Russian propaganda on the Donbas in 2014)?
-
Energy rationing is easy to achieve by controlling gas stations, and turning off mains power at selected times. However, I wonder what they can do with gas, which seems to be the thing with the biggest supply problem? Don't they need careful procedures to prevent explosions when turning the public gas supply off and on? I'm not sure. I've never seen the flow of gas stop since it was first turned on.
There have been wide scale loss of gas events:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esso_Longford_gas_explosion
Nothing special done in restoring the flow, there is a Royal Commission report available online if you want all the technical details of the drama.
-
@Vovk_Z are you on a mission here?
-
@Vovk_Z are you on a mission here?
He is living the nightmare, Google where he lives.
-
@Vovk_Z are you on a mission here?
I don't want to start itself any political talks. I just can't stand to hear russian propaganda speeches spreading. Because I'm full of it. And now (last 6 month) when I hear not only pro-russian speeches but and air alarms and my people diying of russian shells and rockets (that all together) - that is too much for me and I react to it.
It works in this way: first goes russian propaganda (about bad ukrainians or 'it is all not that simple' and then go russian army.
That's why everytime I hear 100% russian speech (e.g. Putin yesterday 'was conserned that Ukraine doesn't sell food to Africa, but sells it in EU instead' - I feel attacked, and react respectively. I feel like I must tell people in the world what narratives are 100% alighn with a Moscow Cremlin.
Sorry.
There are several typical keyphrases which typically mean they are russian narratives, and 'It's not that simple' is one of it. And reading my previous reactions you may find others. Some of them are steady (for 8 years now) and some of them are new topics going from russian Cremlin.
-
@Vovk_Z are you on a mission here?
He is living the nightmare, Google where he lives.
Yes, thank you. It was a real nightmare in Spring (from the very beginning of the war in 24 of Fenruary), when russianZ tried to occupy Kiyv - the capital of Ukraine where I live. I witnessed russian planes (when they weren't afraid of our army in the first days) and rockets, with my wife in our flat. We couldn't know if we'll be alive till the end of the day or not. Large (the largest) guns (152/203mm) fired several kilometers away from my home. It was more than a month - February and an April of a severe nightmare. Then in the first days of May Russians were chased away from Kiyv and most of the North. They called it 'a goodwill gesture' but it was anything but a 'goodwill'. ('A second army in the world' as they call itself , they realized they don't have enough forces and they needed Donbas more).
Now a frontline is far from my city, and news are encouraging (thank's to West help and weaponry!), so we (Kievites) kind of feel some relief.
Now I feel like I have again a chance to die my own death :) but not from some russian soldier.
-
What do you think would happen to all those ethnic Russians living in Eastern Ukraine?
Do you think 'ethnic Russians' live only in Eastern Ukraine (but not all over Ukraine)? What do you think happen and happening now to them all over Ukraine? |O
Do you really think we eat or crusify Russian babies for breakfast (as it was shown by Russian propaganda on the Donbas in 2014)?
They're mostly concentrated in the east, which is why Russia is focussing its attention on that area.
More often than not, there's an element of truth to propaganda, so no, I don't believe they're crucifying Russian babies, but denying Russians jobs, housing and socially stigmatising them seems very plausible. This was probably going on before the war and will continue afterwards. A similar thing has happened to ethnic minorities in many parts of the world. Political instability, economic hardship and war make it worse.
-
but denying Russians jobs, housing and socially stigmatising them seems very plausible.
That is a 100% untrue. You may find it as a logical explanation to a russian aggression, but there wasn't such a thing.
Ukraine just started to realize in 2013-2014 that its way to best life is aligned with Europe, but not with Russia (which was always an occupant and now is) - and this was a real cause (along with a Putin's desire to 'Made Soviet Union Great Again' - which is not possible w/o Ukraine).
The occupation of Ukrainian Crimea was conducted by Russia accordingly to a plan but not accidentally. It happened at a moment when our country was in a very weak and vulnerable position.
-
They're mostly concentrated in the east, which is why Russia is focussing its attention on that area.
The east is a border with a Russia, which is why Russia is focussing its attention on that area! It is much easy to brainwash people in our east because they are closer and more connected to Russia, so it is much easier to influence there. Do you understand the term 'Russification'?
East of Ukraine (I mean cities but not villages) was russian-speaking (thanks to Russian Empire occupation and russification and then Soviet Union occupation and russification) and it was very easy for Russia to manipulate between 'russian-speaking people' and 'ethnic russians'. But there wasn't any ethnic conflict!. It possibly may be seen for you as an 'ethnic Russian-Ukraine conflict' but a Russia is the only aggressor and occupant.
Putin is a very weak and thin copy of Hitler or Stalin, but Russian propaganda is strong somewhere, as I see.
-
The real reason why electricity prices are so high? https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/uk-news/great-wind-farm-rip-off-27889339?utm_source=sharebar&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharebar (https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/uk-news/great-wind-farm-rip-off-27889339?utm_source=sharebar&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharebar)
-
The real reason why electricity prices are so high? https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/uk-news/great-wind-farm-rip-off-27889339?utm_source=sharebar&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharebar (https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/uk-news/great-wind-farm-rip-off-27889339?utm_source=sharebar&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharebar)
It seems that part of the UK governments agenda here will be to negotiate longer term contracts with these providers to reduce the rate. Already Ofgem is consulting to decouple the cost of wind/solar from gas, which is something several energy companies have been pushing for already.
It probably will start with a kindly "please" but if they don't budge then it will go in via legislation.
It's one way the £100bn bill will be reduced, by perhaps up to £40bn.
Similar moves will be seen across Europe, the EU have been talking about it already as well.
I think it's very much a fair move.
-
They're mostly concentrated in the east, which is why Russia is focussing its attention on that area.
The east is a border with a Russia, which is why Russia is focussing its attention on that area! It is much easy to brainwash people in our east because they are closer and more connected to Russia, so it is much easier to influence there. Do you understand the term 'Russification'?
East of Ukraine (I mean cities but not villages) was russian-speaking (thanks to Russian Empire occupation and russification and then Soviet Union occupation and russification) and it was very easy for Russia to manipulate between 'russian-speaking people' and 'ethnic russians'. But there wasn't any ethnic conflict!. It possibly may be seen for you as an 'ethnic Russian-Ukraine conflict' but a Russia is the only aggressor and occupant.
Putin is a very weak and thin copy of Hitler or Stalin, but Russian propaganda is strong somewhere, as I see.
From what I understand the people in the east of Ukraine where neglected and didn't share in the economic growth the the country making it a very fertile breeding ground for mutany. There will be people who feel they are discriminated somehow and like to belong to a different group. Ethnic 'problems' are everywhere and can easely escalate. Likely Russia has fueled this situation and lit the fire. It takes a very carefull analysis of events to figure out what has happened exactly leading up to the civil war in the east of Ukraine.
-
@Vovk_Z are you on a mission here?
For people living close to Russia (like in Finland), it is much easier to see through the vast amount of propaganda coming from Kremlin. We have been used to it for years. Recommended reading Putin's Trolls, by a journalist from Finland (translated to many languages):
https://www.amazon.com/Putins-Trolls-Frontlines-Russias-Information/dp/1632461293 (https://www.amazon.com/Putins-Trolls-Frontlines-Russias-Information/dp/1632461293)
I can't imagine how it would feel also being invaded by the Russian army and on the same time being criticized by people from the west that are literally quoting Kremlin propaganda lines, straight from their book.
So you have to understand that anyone from Ukraine or Russia's border countries are going to speak up when they see Kremlin propaganda parroted.
-
From what I understand the people in the east of Ukraine where neglected and didn't share in the economic growth the the country making it a very fertile breeding ground for mutany. There will be people who feel they are discriminated somehow
It may be shown as that. But in a real life 1) all Ukrainian people were not very rich and 2) Donbas (east of UA) was the very donated region from all of the UA regions (bosses of Donetsk mafia ruled the region and in fact - the country. President Yanukovich was from a Donbas), 3) Russian TV and all propaganda (widespread in East, South, Crimea) showed Rusia as 'rich and good' (and stronk). Russia 'helped' them to understand that they are 'discriminated'. But the fact that it not only made propaganda thing, but it started real aggression with a force.
For example, Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, and Kharkiv (the largest south and east cities) were 'oppressed and neglected' as occupied Lugansk and Donetsk, in the same amount (/s). But since 2014-2015 they lived fine, safe and steady.
-
From what I understand the people in the east of Ukraine where neglected and didn't share in the economic growth the the country making it a very fertile breeding ground for mutany. There will be people who feel they are discriminated somehow and like to belong to a different group. Ethnic 'problems' are everywhere and can easely escalate. Likely Russia has fueled this situation and lit the fire. It takes a very carefull analysis of events to figure out what has happened exactly leading up to the civil war in the east of Ukraine.
That's Kremlin talk. Of course every country have their issues with poor areas etc, but there hasn't been ethnic issues in Ukraine. The only reason Putin is invading is his imperialism and need for more land. Ukraine is a rich country with lots of resources, grain, shipyards, coal, gas and oil in the east. The whole Soviet fleet was built in Ukraine (Russia doesn't have such capacities; can't build large ships). Of course Putin doesn't give a damned about the people. Russian army have killed 113 000 mostly Russian speakers in Mariupol.
-
Don't forget, if they actually capture Mariupol and south east Ukraine for good, they will have access to an year-round ice-free port as well as land access to Sevastapol - that's a huge strategic advantage for Russia's navy and shipping trade. I think that's the ultimate goal here, as well as the gas in Donbas, not any supposed "ethnic" reasons.
-
about the ethnic component to the war. Here's a thought experiment. If the war were to end today. What do you think would happen to all those ethnic Russians living in Eastern Ukraine?
One more fact about 'oppression'. Here is a video made by Russian-speaking! Ukrainian travel blogger about Mariupol (he is from Vishgorod it's near Kyiv). It was made right before a large war (a couple of months before February 2022). Mariupol was (and is now) a 99-100% Russian-speaking industrial city. A blogger made a serial about "Cities which I could move to".
youtube (https://youtu.be/dRyiBnqA-L4). Ther are English subtitles too.
Btw, now, that blogger Sasha Lyapota (https://www.facebook.com/lyapota) became totally Ukrainian-speaking (like many other previously Russian-speaking Ukrainians). Russia and Putin helped him to de-russificy itself within a several month.
Btw #2. I was partially Russian-speaking too at work but became totally Ukrainian speaking somewhere in 2015 after Russia occupied Crimea and Donbas with one of the mottos 'We help and protect russian-speaking people'. Since that many Ukrainians turned totally to the Ukrainian language because they don't want Russia to 'protect' them, because Ukrainians started to understand what is 'Russian protection' (many knew it earlier, but not much).
-
From what I understand the people in the east of Ukraine where neglected and didn't share in the economic growth the the country making it a very fertile breeding ground for mutany. There will be people who feel they are discriminated somehow and like to belong to a different group. Ethnic 'problems' are everywhere and can easely escalate. Likely Russia has fueled this situation and lit the fire. It takes a very carefull analysis of events to figure out what has happened exactly leading up to the civil war in the east of Ukraine.
[/quote]
I understood that the East of Ukraine is where the mineral and oil deposits are along with much of industry. Many of the weapon systems the Russians are using were made in Ukraine and now they are having to go cap in hand to the North Koreans to obtain more weapons as one of the first things they did at the start of the invasion is destroy weapon and high tech factories. Much of what the soviet era research and development was done by Ukrainians, you might say that not only have the Russians shot themselves in the foot but also the head at the same time.
-
There is a difference between Ukraine and western countries. While Ukraine was invaded twice, in 2014 and in 2022, Nato/EU countries were not. Western engagement stems from responsability as the current war was certainly triggered by western politics (e.g. cancellation of nuclear disarmament treaties, withdrawel from peace keeping in Afganistan, unrest in Belarus). What is a tragedy for Ukraine, apeears more like an accident or punishment from western view. We don't know yet how bad it can be.
Regards, Dieter
-
Rusian own resources in land, minerals, etc are much-much larger than Ukrainian (and Russia positioned itself as a 'super-country'), so I don't see any reason for Putin to fight for our resources. It is just a usual imperial thing when 'an empire must expand' and 'we have to show those Ukrainians their place as our small brothers'. It was always it, hundreds of years, since the 1650s. Russia (former Moskovia) has stolen the name 'Russ' from Ukraine (former 'Kyivan Rus') and Belorussia, and then, at the Russian Empire, come up with the name 'Малороссия' for Ukraine. 'Малороссия' word meaning is a 'Small-Russia'! So, Russian people are 'great Russians' with this. If they are 'Great Russians' they definitely must spread their 'Russian world' ('русский мир') across bordering countries. (/s)
-
There is a difference between Ukraine and western countries. While Ukraine was invaded twice, in 2014 and in 2022, Nato/EU countries are were not yet.
FTFY
-
There is a difference between Ukraine and western countries. While Ukraine was invaded twice, in 2014 and in 2022, Nato/EU countries are were not yet.
FTFY
And thanks to great life-saving Western help - Western countries won't know what is an invasion next years (tens of years), I'm sure now.
As a Ukrainian, I can't find enough words to appreciate it. Those two things - the Ukrainian army (and the whole Ukraine united against Russia) and Western help (united against Russia) - literally saved my life and many others. And it will be that until we are united.
-
There is a difference between Ukraine and western countries. While Ukraine was invaded twice, in 2014 and in 2022, Nato/EU countries are were not yet.
FTFY
And thanks to great life-saving Western help - Western countries won't know what is an invasion next years (tens of years), I'm sure now.
As a Ukrainian, I can't find enough words to appreciate it. Those two things - the Ukrainian army (and the whole Ukraine united against Russia) and Western help (united against Russia) - literally saved my life and many others. And it will be that until we are united.
From the other side of the planet we in NZ watch in disbelief of what Ukraine is going through yet are more aghast that Europe as a whole would let it happen and even NATO formed after the last world troubles stands idly by and lets powers of veto be enacted to neuter any decisions they propose.
For months we have shaken our heads in disbelief that all your neighbors should stand by and watch what you have gone through and not for one minute think they might be next.
So sad, really it is. :(
-
NATO has also learned an immense amount from supporting Ukraine - the Russian military is decades behind and their strategies and tactics are dependent upon obsolete logistics.
Perhaps the only advantage they have is in their anti-air systems, I seem to recall S400 is one of the most advanced in the world, S300 is not too far behind. Still, they are expensive to build (many hundreds of millions $) and many have been destroyed already. I wonder how many are left? The sanctions on components are also surely making it hard to replace them.
-
Rusian own resources in land, minerals, etc are much-much larger than Ukrainian (and Russia positioned itself as a 'super-country'), so I don't see any reason for Putin to fight for our resources. It is just a usual imperial thing when 'an empire must expand' and 'we have to show those Ukrainians their place as our small brothers'. It was always it, hundreds of years, since the 1650s. Russia (former Moskovia) has stolen the name 'Russ' from Ukraine (former 'Kyivan Rus') and Belorussia, and then, at the Russian Empire, come up with the name 'Малороссия' for Ukraine. 'Малороссия' word meaning is a 'Small-Russia'! So, Russian people are 'great Russians' with this. If they are 'Great Russians' they definitely must spread their 'Russian world' ('русский мир') across bordering countries. (/s)
I expect control of Black Sea ports is a major strategic consideration on Putin's part, though obviously the Russian Navy is a but shadow of the Soviet one.
-
Perhaps the only advantage they have is in their anti-air systems, I seem to recall S400 is one of the most advanced in the world, S300 is not too far behind.
A bit of a shame then most of NATO relies on planes for offensive capabilities.
EU has been pretending the INF still exists the last few years.
-
but denying Russians jobs, housing and socially stigmatising them seems very plausible.
That is a 100% untrue.
I can totally relate.
It is "well known" how Finnish authorities illegally take kids of Russians into custody. There are news stories about it! It is "well known" how Finland is the "most racist" country in Europe, this is repeatedly told by our very own leaders. It is "well known" how Finns are nazis.
Me and you understand where these stories originate from. Many do not.
If Russia had both resources and interests (motivation, something to gain) to attack Finland, they would do it, but also people like Zero999 would discuss on the internet how "there is usually some truth in the propaganda, and look these Western news articles that describe how Finland indeed has been most racist country in the EU, and there is some evidence of Finnish authorities taking kids of russians into custody..."
While in reality, it would be total bullshit, well conditioned over years or decades.
This works because the assumption of "there is some grain of truth in every statement" is usually a good working hypothesis, because it drives you to find more information. It becomes a problem when A) you are satisfied with the idea of there being some truth alone, without doing your homework really well, B) when the propagandist understands this assumption and utilizes it to their advantage.
-
but denying Russians jobs, housing and socially stigmatising them seems very plausible.
That is a 100% untrue.
I can totally relate.
It is "well known" how Finnish authorities illegally take kids of Russians into custody. There are news stories about it! It is "well known" how Finland is the "most racist" country in Europe, this is repeatedly told by our very own leaders. It is "well known" how Finns are nazis.
Me and you understand where these stories originate from. Many do not.
If Russia had both resources and interests (motivation, something to gain) to attack Finland, they would do it, but also people like Zero999 would discuss on the internet how "there is usually some truth in the propaganda, and look these Western news articles that describe how Finland indeed has been most racist country in the EU, and there is some evidence of Finnish authorities taking kids of russians into custody..."
While in reality, it would be total bullshit, well conditioned over years or decades.
We must never forget that Belgians eat babies. We know this must be true because the British media told us it was true, with none of them dissenting.
-
So I received an electricity bill for last month. EUR 198.50 for puny 293 kWh, 2x more than for July for a bit less energy spent and about 5x more than last year. Wonderful, everything just wonderful. I guess by winter electricity + heating will be well above average household income in less wealthy regions of Latvia. And I feel real bad for pensioners, especially lonely ones as their pension is about EUR 370 in average and much less for unlucky ones.
-
It is "well known" how Finland is the "most racist" country in Europe, this is repeatedly told by our very own leaders.
Not Poland and Hungary?
We need to up our game.
people like Zero999 would discuss on the internet how "there is usually some truth in the propaganda, and look these Western news articles that describe how Finland indeed has been most racist country in the EU, and there is some evidence of Finnish authorities taking kids of russians into custody..."
While in reality, it would be total bullshit, well conditioned over years or decades.
That's not Finland, but I have seen flamewars between minority Russians from the Baltics and the natives. I wouldn't exactly describe their coexistence as entirely peaceful. Kinda reminds me of the situation in America before 2010: everybody says racism is basically a thing of the past, until you ask the hyphenated themselves or those stuck living in their vicinity and find an inexplicable disdain for each other. Well, the rest is history in that case ::)
-
It is "well known" how Finland is the "most racist" country in Europe, this is repeatedly told by our very own leaders.
Not Poland and Hungary?
We need to up our game.
people like Zero999 would discuss on the internet how "there is usually some truth in the propaganda, and look these Western news articles that describe how Finland indeed has been most racist country in the EU, and there is some evidence of Finnish authorities taking kids of russians into custody..."
While in reality, it would be total bullshit, well conditioned over years or decades.
That's not Finland, but I have seen flamewars between minority Russians from the Baltics and the natives. I wouldn't exactly describe their coexistence as entirely peaceful. Kinda reminds me of the situation in America before 2010: everybody says racism is basically a thing of the past, until you ask the hyphenated themselves or those stuck living in their vicinity and find an inexplicable disdain for each other. Well, the rest is history in that case ::)
Sadly I have to report that this is the case in the UK as well.
-
I don't support Putin, but the EU, along with NATO are partly responsible for this mess in the first place. If they promised Russia they weren't going to expand eastwards and kept to it and stopped interfering
This is Russian propaganda. There is no a single international agreement, ratified by any NATO member state or not, that spells out such promises.
Yes, there is.
It's called the Budapest memorandum. It states:
Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following:
Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.
Oh wait...
Where does the Budapest memorandum says that sovereign Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine cannot make their sovereign decision to join defensive pacts?
Also, in this memorandum the guarantees were given ___BY___ Russia, UK and US ___TO___ Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, for giving up their nuclear weapons and transferring them to Russia.
Russia, on the other hand, violated obligations it gave to Ukraine under the Budapest memorandum, using threats and military force against Ukraine since the war started in 2014.
-
The problem with propaganda is there's some element of truth to it. I can confirm there are Nazis in Ukraine. I've been there and witnessed it myself. It goes back to the Germans helping some Ukrainians, during the WW2. Obviously, Zelenskyy is no Nazi, neither are most Ukrainians and that's no justification for it. My point is, some of the money sent by the West is going to Nazis.
This is Russian propaganda. The truth is, Zelensky, who is ethnic Jew, got 73% popular vote during last elections.
What propaganda? I've been to Ukraine and personally spoken to Nazis there. They referred to blacks as niggers and that the country would be better without them and the Jews. I know Zelensky is a Jew. I never said he was a Nazi. I clearly said that's not the case. How free and fair the election was is another matter. It's much more complicated than Putin bad, Zelensky good. The two men have a lot in common, character wise. They're built of the same stuff. The difference is Putin did start it and is in the wrong, but that doesn't mean Zelensky is a saint.
I lived both in Russia and Ukraine, as well as in Australia, North America and South East Asia, and can attest that you can find all kind of people everywhere, including murderers, rapists, Nazis, KKK white suprematists, useful idiots.
I also speak Russian natively, and can give a little language lesson.
In Russian, word негр (nigger) does not carry negative connotation. Russia did not participate in Atlantic triangular slave trade, did not have native African slave population, and today this word is not associated with racism in Russia. The word негр came from Spanish word negro.
Word чёрный (black), on the other hand, has strong racial connotation when used in relation to a person. It usually used as insulting nickname for native Caucuses population (Chechens, Dagestan people, Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijani). Stronger version is чёрножопый (literally black a$$)
Back on topic. I saw more Nazis and antisemites in Russia, than I saw in Ukraine. My former boss, born in St. Petersburg, USSR, emigrated from Russia, because of his Jewish descent, and he and his parents were oppressed throughput their live, at work (parents were scientists), at school and university, because of their ethnicity. Today there are many Nazis in Russian elite. Putin’s main ideologist Alexander Dugin, whose daughter was recently killed by explosion device that she personally brought from Donbass region of Ukrainian, is pure Nazi. Former minister and former head of Russia’s Space Agency Dmitry Rogozin is Nazi. In his early days Rogozin , as politician, organized Русский Марш (Russian supremacist’s rally), and featured in election TV commercials with catch phrase “очистим Москву от мусора“, literally meaning deportation of human garbage (чёрножопыж emigrants). Even Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, is racist, and was active participant of Русский Марш (the Russian supremacist’s rallies).
I, myself, do not see much difference between Nazi ideology and Communist ideology, between Gestapo and KGB. Both are evil. Both murdered many millions people. Ukraine is not a Nazi state. Russia is KGB state.
-
So I received an electricity bill for last month. EUR 198.50 for puny 293 kWh, 2x more than for July for a bit less energy spent and about 5x more than last year. Wonderful, everything just wonderful. I guess by winter electricity + heating will be well above average household income in less wealthy regions of Latvia. And I feel real bad for pensioners, especially lonely ones as their pension is about EUR 370 in average and much less for unlucky ones.
This sucks.
As a comparison, house of a colleague of my childhood friend was shelled in March. She was lucky, only suffered concussion and minor injuries, and was able to flee from Mariupol to western Ukraine before Russian forces rolled into the city.
-
My view on the “Gas Armageddon” in Europe. Europeans made this Armageddon possible.
For decades Europe’s leaders put blind eye on Putin’s regime. Many got bribed by Russia (Chancellor Schröder, for example).
They supplied military technology and equipment to Russia: thermal vision cameras (Thales, France), advanced microelectronics and gyros found in Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. They almost sold two helicopter carriers to Russia (France).
They let their countries get addicted to cheap gas and oil imports from unreliable supplier, sending trillion Euros to Putin war chest and destroying own coal and nuclear energy industry, sending many thousands own citizens to unemployment benefits.
They did not change their behavioral pattern and diversify energy supplier even when Russia started threatening cutting off gas supplies as early as 2005.
They did not change this pattern, when Russia started war in Europe in 2008, invading Georgia and annexing its territories.
They did not change it in 2014, when Russia started another war in Europe, invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea.
They did not change pattern when a passenger plane carrying 298 souls, mostly Dutch, Australians and Malaysians, was shot down by Russian air defenses over Ukraine.
They did not change their pattern when Russian special forces committed assassinations and attempted assassinations with the use of WMD (banned chemical weapons) on European soil (UK, Bulgaria).
They did not change the pattern when Russia started 2nd phase of Russian-Ukrainian war on 24 February 2022.
Today, they still have not changed their patter. In September 2022 Europe continues to buy Russian oil in ever growing volumes, and is desperate to import Russian gas. On average, Europeans sent 800 million Euros a day, every day since February 2022, to Putin’s war chest.
At the same time Western European countries, except UK, refuse to send heavy weapons to Ukraine.
Germany that was architect of the ”Armageddon” is the pinnacle of the hypocrisy. They promised, but never sent Marauder APCs and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Germany prefers to have these obsolete heavy armor equipment to rust in their storage, than give it to Ukraine.
Get yourself together, Europe. Diversify your energy imports, restore your energy sector. Maybe buy warm socks and pullover sweater for the coming winter. My coldest winter ever was in Melbourne, judging by indoor temperatures, and from my personal experience I can also recommend electric blankets.
Ukraine and its supporters can also help with electric and gas bills. They are willing to pay cash for your rusting outdated tanks and armored personnel carriers. Seriously.
-
From the rules:
5) This is an electronics forum, so try to stay on-topic. We understand that threads drift off-topic, but try not to start deliberately and grossly off-topic stuff.
There are a couple of pet topics that always get out of control on forums, namely, religion, politics, guns, war, conspiracy theories, and the latest Current Thing that's happening or being championed by the public. They are not welcome here. This includes inside signatures and profile bios. This isn't Twitter where you virtue signal to everyone with your flags, emoticons, and hashtags.
The mods here are lenient, but I suspect this is headed for out of control if it isn't already.
-
Ukraine was around long before Russia began.
In 1991, Uraine voted 93%/7% to go independent of Russia (82% attendence)
In the Holodomor, Russia's action made millions of Ukrainians starve to death.
Putin has enough nukes to destroy the world 5x over....but pretends it feels threatened by Ukraine, or even NATO....the small countries join NATO simply because they fear Russia under the likes of Putin.
Russia is under threat from no country. If it gets threatened...then it has nukes.
This offensive must simply be a "look see", to see what weapons the west has, prior to further Russian operations elsewhere, and to give information for the "other invasion" , related to this one, that is imminently coming.
The Russians are great people...but they are unfortunately under the claw of Putin and are trapped. I am so sorry for the superb Russian people, who have to cow tow to Putin.
If Putin thinks its so tough in Russia that he has to invade ukraine....then swap countries with us here in UK......we'll all come to Russia and live, and Russians can have UK....we will swap gladly...and we will live peacefully with the nice Ukrainians. There is not threat to Russia...and the nukes can be let to fly if need ever came....but i doubt anyone will ever invade Russia.
Russia even has the windfall of the Arctic territory to enhance its already huge wealth even more...so what they are doing with utter barbarism in Ukraine is anyone's guess.
So ungrateful of Putin to do this....and against UK too effectively....who helped Russia out of the mire in WW2 with great intelligence...even my own Grandfather winding armatures for Russian subs in ww2.
I suspect Putin wants all out nuke war as he cant retire, as he has bumped so many fellow Russians off that someone will come get him.....if he wants full nuclear, we will gladly get right into that with him....absolute full nuclear......and i suspect Putin actually wants it anyway.
Just a shame for the majority of the great , wonderful Russian People, and of course, us.
-
Do you have access to a public library? There are many serious history books about Russia, Ukraine, and the Soviet Union.
Examples:
A Bevoir: "Russia, Revolution and Civil War 1917-1921", Weidenfel & Nicolson 2022 About the revolution and the civil war that followed, where Ukraine was a center for the "Whites", vs. the "Reds".
D Lieven: "Towards the Flame. Empire, War, and the End of Tsarist Russia", Allen Lane 2015.
My favorite: "The Russian Primary Chronicle, Laurentian Text", translated S H Cross and O P Sherbowitz-Wetzor, The Medieval Academy of America 1953 (reprinted 1973). It is an old chronicle, covering approximately AD 852 to 1120, where the manuscript translated here dates to AD 1377. I like it because it includes the tradition that in approximately AD 860 the locals appealed to the Varangian Russes (Scandinavians) saying "Our land is great and rich, but there is no order in it. Come to rule and reign over us." This led to the reign of Rurik in Novgorod, the founder of the dynasty in "Kievan Rus" that included Ivan the Terrible and lasted through Feodor I (died 1598). After a 15-year "Time of Troubles", the Romanov dynasty took over the Tsardom, and ruled until the Bolsheviks. Russian and Ukrainian historians differ on a lot of details of this ancient history, which included both geographical regions.
-
My view on the “Gas Armageddon” in Europe. Europeans made this Armageddon possible.
For decades Europe’s leaders put blind eye on Putin’s regime. Many got bribed by Russia (Chancellor Schröder, for example).
They supplied military technology and equipment to Russia: thermal vision cameras (Thales, France), advanced microelectronics and gyros found in Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. They almost sold two helicopter carriers to Russia (France).
They let their countries get addicted to cheap gas and oil imports from unreliable supplier, sending trillion Euros to Putin war chest and destroying own coal and nuclear energy industry, sending many thousands own citizens to unemployment benefits.
They did not change their behavioral pattern and diversify energy supplier even when Russia started threatening cutting off gas supplies as early as 2005.
They did not change this pattern, when Russia started war in Europe in 2008, invading Georgia and annexing its territories.
They did not change it in 2014, when Russia started another war in Europe, invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea.
They did not change pattern when a passenger plane carrying 298 souls, mostly Dutch, Australians and Malaysians, was shot down by Russian air defenses over Ukraine.
They did not change their pattern when Russian special forces committed assassinations and attempted assassinations with the use of WMD (banned chemical weapons) on European soil (UK, Bulgaria).
They did not change the pattern when Russia started 2nd phase of Russian-Ukrainian war on 24 February 2022.
Today, they still have not changed their patter. In September 2022 Europe continues to buy Russian oil in ever growing volumes, and is desperate to import Russian gas. On average, Europeans sent 800 million Euros a day, every day since February 2022, to Putin’s war chest.
At the same time Western European countries, except UK, refuse to send heavy weapons to Ukraine.
Germany that was architect of the ”Armageddon” is the pinnacle of the hypocrisy. They promised, but never sent Marauder APCs and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Germany prefers to have these obsolete heavy armor equipment to rust in their storage, than give it to Ukraine.
Get yourself together, Europe. Diversify your energy imports, restore your energy sector. Maybe buy warm socks and pullover sweater for the coming winter. My coldest winter ever was in Melbourne, judging by indoor temperatures, and from my personal experience I can also recommend electric blankets.
Ukraine and its supporters can also help with electric and gas bills. They are willing to pay cash for your rusting outdated tanks and armored personnel carriers. Seriously.
Yes when all listed out like that it's very difficult to feel sympathy for anyone in Europe but the Ukrainians.
I do wonder whom has been screaming warnings for the last decade of 2 just to be ignored by the children running that part of the world now.
However long overdue is the value of wool to lift and substantially it might this winter too !
-
There exists a certain 800lb gorilla country in the EU which hasn't really been independent since 1945.
So the whole disruption of Europe's energy and heavy industry sectors while positioning themselves as sole authorized distributors of foreign fossil fuels, it may not entirely have been their own idea ;)
Other things may not have been their own idea too, but you won't get me to rant about it on this forum :-DD
-
Despite Putin's hope that blackmailing Europe would work, the gas price continues to fall:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
A great deal of this is due to market intervention in the EU.
It is of course still well above the pre 2020 norm.
-
Despite Putin's hope that blackmailing Europe would work, the gas price continues to fall:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
A great deal of this is due to market intervention in the EU.
It is of course still well above the pre 2020 norm.
like 10 to 30 times above. I wouldn't count on price drop either. Even with completely full reservoirs, with no supply EU would not last even half of the winter. Not to say price dropped to a level of what was a month ago. Which was already totally insane and highest ever except a short few day peak in March.
-
It's about 8-10x above the 2020 norm. I think around 4x is a manageable level (for consumers there will have to be a subsidy, for business they will just have to adapt). Anything above that is going to require further economic support.
-
Just so you understand what this price means. Last year it was about 7MWh of natural gas a month to heat my home in winter. At 190 EUR/MWh it's effing EUR 1330, and it's a wholesale price with no VAT, not what I get delivered. And in Latvia the vast majority of people earn below EUR 1000 after taxes. Median being about EUR 770 after taxes.
-
EU is failing, they should have a rationing plan in place for the EU as a whole. Maybe an EU wide subsidy for residential users for the first X m3 of gas or kwh of electricity during winter, since non industrial users are hard to ration.
-
The UK approach is stupid - all bills will be capped at an annual average of £2500 per year (okay, fair enough) for the 'average household' (12MWh/year gas, 2.9MWh/year electricity) which is "fine" in principle but that subsidy could apply all the way up to 100's MWh/year consumption, there is no cap on how much the government will pay per user.
It seems absolute insanity that we're essentially paying to heat people's swimming pools. It should be something like a total of 16MWh electricity and gas is subsidised (just slightly over the average) and then you pay market rates for the fuels. It should be the sum of the two, because some places only have electric resistive heating, so they will have nearly no gas usage (maybe hot water/cooking but <1MWh/year) and assessing per user will be difficult.
-
EU is failing, they should have a rationing plan in place for the EU as a whole. Maybe an EU wide subsidy for residential users for the first X m3 of gas or kwh of electricity during winter, since non industrial users are hard to ration.
The only way to save & keep the current regime from falling in short term is to keep printing more money in already very weakened Euro, and keeps throwing/spreading subsidies like crazy, to keep people out from the street from protesting the leaders, hopefully. :scared:
-
@Vovk_Z are you on a mission here?
I just can't stand to hear russian propaganda speeches spreading.
So you started your propaganda (part of your messages is direct propaganda, with which you mislead people who are far from the history of relations between Russia and Ukraine), taking advantage of the fact that there are no opponents here? I will say right away that I don’t give a damn about Russia and Ukraine.
As for the question of the topic, if you want to save money, then refer to the experience of the Russian north. It is cold there, but the houses are warm, despite the lack of advanced European technologies.
-
The only way to save & keep the current regime from falling in short term
Other than becoming vassals to Russia and just handing them the Baltics to annex outright, regime change has very little point. The situation sucks and we just have to make the best of it.
The way to make the best of it would be to support vulnerable ordinary citizens EU wide, with EU funds.
-
Bonjour
As always, the root issue is beurocrats and governments attempting to predict and control everything.
The control of electric power generation and distribution has been designed and legislated by laymen and Socialist politicians in Washington DC, London, Brussels, Strasbourg.
These Mandarins with Sinécures have
1. Shut nuclear power plants
2. stopped oil exploration, coal mining
3. made a deal with Putin's fascist Russian gas
4. refused to build infrastructure ( LNG terminals, pipeline, refineries)
5. Decided to destroy then Wests energy system
6. Huge taxpayers subsidy for wind, solar, and other unreliable and costly schemes
Even if we in the West stop all economy and energy use now, the Enormous Chinese and Indian pollution will still continue.
Just the ramblings of an old retired Electrical Engineer.
Jon
-
Even if we in the West stop all economy and energy use now, the Enormous Chinese and Indian pollution will still continue.
Agree Jon, the West never ever polluted the world, even the West started industrialization centuries ago.
Those low life China and Indian are the pest of the world, if the West suffered because of energy crisis and affecting their economy, those damn Chinese and Indians must suffer too, and stop their economy, and in the name of solidarity and follow the "Western greatness" to stop buying the super evil Russia's energy, reduce polluting the world, and at the same time punish Russia and bring them to kneel to the great Western civilization.
Happy ending. :-DD
-
Even if we in the West stop all economy and energy use now, the Enormous Chinese and Indian pollution will still continue.
Agree Jon, the West never ever polluted the world, even the West started industrialization centuries ago.
Those low life China and Indian are the pest of the world, if the West suffered because of energy crisis and affecting their economy, those damn Chinese and Indians must suffer too, and stop their economy, and in the name of solidarity and follow the "Western greatness" to stop buying the super evil Russia's energy, reduce polluting the world, and at the same time punish Russia and bring them to kneel to the great Western civilization.
Happy ending. :-DD
I would say it differently. If one part of the world ceases production of something to reduce pollution, production and pollution will simply move to another place.
-
Even if we in the West stop all economy and energy use now, the Enormous Chinese and Indian pollution will still continue.
Agree Jon, the West never ever polluted the world, even the West started industrialization centuries ago.
Those low life China and Indian are the pest of the world, if the West suffered because of energy crisis and affecting their economy, those damn Chinese and Indians must suffer too, and stop their economy, and in the name of solidarity and follow the "Western greatness" to stop buying the super evil Russia's energy, reduce polluting the world, and at the same time punish Russia and bring them to kneel to the great Western civilization.
Happy ending. :-DD
I would say it differently. If one part of the world ceases production of something to reduce pollution, production and pollution will simply move to another place.
Some may say that you've been brainwashed and consuming too much bad propaganda by the evil Russia, or even worst the super uber evil China CCP narratives.
-
Every government intervention has been a catastrophe...
Wars, recession, depression, currencies, energy, education....
One sees the Enormous hypocrisy of the elites in the Capitols, jetting about to conferences, vacations, political junkets, while admonishing we poor peons to use less energy and buy expensive and defective electric cars.....
"Let em eat cake" ( supposedly said by Marie Antoinette, in response to the famines and bread shortages in 1790, just before the French revolution)
From an optimist in the nuclear age
Jon
-
It is a good move, imho, the EU decided to eliminate the dependency on Russian energy (gas, oil, nuclear), which dependency, btw. has been criticized for at least 2 decades by many politicians, but EU was lazy and childish naive in that regard. Also it is clear that the free market with energies in EU must be regulated during this transition period, so hopefully EU does the necessary steps now. Also Germany and other big players should resume all their nuclear power-plants during that transition period (let say for next 10y), also the coal should come again into the game during that period. The naive green EU should wait for a while.. That transition costs us and it will cost us even more in EU, but at least the next generation will be happy that we finally undertook this painful step..
-
The gas price has now fallen below the post-war spike, after Germany announced NS2 would not be activated:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
-
EU is failing, they should have a rationing plan in place for the EU as a whole. Maybe an EU wide subsidy for residential users for the first X m3 of gas or kwh of electricity during winter, since non industrial users are hard to ration.
Yes, there is literally chaos on the streets, and people are eating each other, because they have to spend an extra 100 EUR a month or so. Better stock up on canned beans, because it's all crashing down and then maybe I get to live 2 extra weeks. Really terrible, I don't know how we will survive. Maybe people can give up the third cars in their family, and set the thermostat 1 degree lower, and put on a jumper during the winter. And buy every other new iphone, not every single one. I hope they will make support groups for us. Meanwhile everyone with the roof is talking about solar panels. What has the world come to, we have to pollute our pristine roofs with this pest.
Better move to the east. I hear they don't have an issue with gas, but that the local council is not keeping the river clean enough to wash clothes in. And I'm not making this up.
-
..
Better move to the east. I hear they don't have an issue with gas, but that the local council is not keeping the river clean enough to wash clothes in. And I'm not making this up.
Do you mean rivers in Siberia? Those are generally pretty clean.. :D
-
EU is failing, they should have a rationing plan in place for the EU as a whole. Maybe an EU wide subsidy for residential users for the first X m3 of gas or kwh of electricity during winter, since non industrial users are hard to ration.
Yes, there is literally chaos on the streets, and people are eating each other, because they have to spend an extra 100 EUR a month or so. Better stock up on canned beans, because it's all crashing down and then maybe I get to live 2 extra weeks. Really terrible, I don't know how we will survive. Maybe people can give up the third cars in their family, and set the thermostat 1 degree lower, and put on a jumper during the winter. And buy every other new iphone, not every single one. I hope they will make support groups for us. Meanwhile everyone with the roof is talking about solar panels. What has the world come to, we have to pollute our pristine roofs with this pest.
Better move to the east. I hear they don't have an issue with gas, but that the local council is not keeping the river clean enough to wash clothes in. And I'm not making this up.
I would not call it extra EUR 100. Just food price increase per average person is more than that. Not considering energy, fuel and everything else.
-
IMO We have had 70 years of prosperity, now it seems the tide is going out.
does anyone remember what happened in 1915 and then again in 1939, well its that time again.
when young people volunteer to die for something they know nothing about.
when someone will say IT will be over by Christmas. But most of us know its not true.
the good news is Japan is still here. and so is Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
this is survivable but maybe not our electronics. Lest we forget!
-
IMO We have had 70 years of prosperity, now it seems the tide is going out.
does anyone remember what happened in 1915 and then again in 1939, well its that time again.
when young people volunteer to die for something they know nothing about.
when someone will say IT will be over by Christmas. But most of us know its not true.
the good news is Japan is still here. and so is Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
this is survivable but maybe not our electronics. Lest we forget!
is the current situation really much worse than the oil crisis and recession of the early 70's and 80's ?
-
IMO We have had 70 years of prosperity, now it seems the tide is going out.
does anyone remember what happened in 1915 and then again in 1939, well its that time again.
when young people volunteer to die for something they know nothing about.
when someone will say IT will be over by Christmas. But most of us know its not true.
the good news is Japan is still here. and so is Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
this is survivable but maybe not our electronics. Lest we forget!
Yeah, I kind of worry about this too sometimes... is history repeating itself, are we being spurred into a world cataclysm by millions of armchair generals that have never been more than 25 miles away from where they were born, but are nevertheless all 100% certain their opinion is the right one and are more than willing to sacrifice your sons and daughters to prove the point?
Cooler heads need to prevail, and it's worth thinking about as you go about your daily business...
-
When 'cooler heads must prevail', what outcome is there for Ukraine?
Given Ukraine's recent tactical success in taking back Kharkiv and Kherson, I wonder if the Russians will be willing to return to the table.
But will Ukraine concede anything? Previously they have said no territory is negotiable, but it is hard to see how the Russians will accept anything less than a legally-sanctioned annex of Crimea and probably part if not all of the contested Donbas region - which I am sure is a red like for the Ukranians.
Like all good negotiations, the best result is one where either side is a bit disappointed by the outcome.
-
Maybe people can give up the third cars in their family, and set the thermostat 1 degree lower, and put on a jumper during the winter. And buy every other new iphone, not every single one. I hope they will make support groups for us. Meanwhile everyone with the roof is talking about solar panels. What has the world come to, we have to pollute our pristine roofs with this pest.
The problem isn't people like us, the problem is for people with minimal income in the low income EU countries.
People on welfare here have more income than average workers in Latvia, normally cost of living compensates but energy is dominating and equalizing between richer and poorer countries. They have more wood, but that doesn't help a pensioner without a fireplace.
-
The problem isn't people like us, the problem is for people with minimal income in the low income EU countries.
People on welfare here have more income than average workers in Latvia, normally cost of living compensates but energy is dominating and equalizing between richer and poorer countries. They have more wood, but that doesn't help a pensioner without a fireplace.
Not to say our winter is much colder than in Netherlands or UK and heating season is longer too.
-
Cooler heads need to prevail, and it's worth thinking about as you go about your daily business...
Cool heads will be judged by history, appeasement has its own risk. Donbass could be the Sudetenland of WW3.
-
is the current situation really much worse than the oil crisis and recession of the early 70's and 80's ?
Don't think you can compare that, this time is different animal.
According to Financial Times (an UK based news outlet that anti Russia btw) ...
-> https://www.ft.com/content/6e86c7ff-4a01-433b-84d9-a6115adca0c1 (https://www.ft.com/content/6e86c7ff-4a01-433b-84d9-a6115adca0c1)
In this news shows this picture below of each EU countries gas consumption, while the mission is cutting Russia dependency (pink colored), say down to zero, the problem is for how long EU countries are "willingly" to endure the pain and damages during that transition period ? The bigger and richer the country, like German, the bigger the damages.
According to Brussels, this may take 5 to 10 years. :o
Click image to enlarge
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F9d9e5420-2eb9-11ed-b3fe-67b4b0d5db8f-standard.png?dpr=2&fit=scale-down&quality=medium&source=next&width=700)
-
I would not call it extra EUR 100.
Yet, it might end up being not much more than that. We are getting scaremongered and seeing scaring signs, yet:
* If food price increase is really just about inflation, as it is called by media, and not stagflation, wages will follow. Even though it is more expensive in EUR, it's not more expensive in real price. Of course, there is a delay, which is also why hyperinflation is an actual problem, but no one knows if we are gonna see that.
* Huge energy price peak will likely remain a short peak, a panic reaction of the market, plus then the "new normal" where the era of ridiculously under priced fossil energy is over, good riddance. For example, electric energy price to the consumers went here from 0.05EUR/kWh to 0.40EUR/kWh or so, but the companies secured futures for ~0.30EUR/kWh for the winter, and get this: back to ~0.15EUR/kWh for the spring. So consumer prices will more or less follow.
And now that we have more motivation than ever to solve the energy problem, solutions will be seen. There are so many obvious low-hanging fruits to pick, just limited by the fact no one wanted to invest even 1000EUR to any energy upgrade because of ridiculously cheap gas.
I kinda like role playing this survivalist game, but to be frank: I believe tszaboo will be much closer to what will actually happen, than the... collapsists. Boring, I know.
-
Cooler heads need to prevail, and it's worth thinking about as you go about your daily business...
Cool heads will be judged by history, appeasement has its own risk. Donbass could be the Sudetenland of WW3.
Appeasement is wrong, and resorting to violence as the first response is also wrong. Life (and relations) isn't black and white... which is what cool heads know, and the extremes never get, being so excitable.
-
I would not call it extra EUR 100.
Yet, it might end up being not much more than that. We are getting scaremongered and seeing scaring signs, yet:
* If food price increase is really just about inflation, as it is called by media, and not stagflation, wages will follow. Even though it is more expensive in EUR, it's not more expensive in real price. Of course, there is a delay, which is also why hyperinflation is an actual problem, but no one knows if we are gonna see that.
* Huge energy price peak will likely remain a short peak, a panic reaction of the market, plus then the "new normal" where the era of ridiculously under priced fossil energy is over, good riddance. For example, electric energy price to the consumers went here from 0.05EUR/kWh to 0.40EUR/kWh or so, but the companies secured futures for ~0.30EUR/kWh for the winter, and get this: back to ~0.15EUR/kWh for the spring. So consumer prices will more or less follow.
And now that we have more motivation than ever to solve the energy problem, solutions will be seen. There are so many obvious low-hanging fruits to pick, just limited by the fact no one wanted to invest even 1000EUR to any energy upgrade because of ridiculously cheap gas.
I kinda like role playing this survivalist game, but to be frank: I believe tszaboo will be much closer to what will actually happen, than the... collapsists. Boring, I know.
In international relations, friends come and friends go (remember, "we don't have permanent friends, only permanent interests").
So, if you think really far down the road (10 years? 20 years?) who's to say there isn't a new, very modernising leader in Russia and that the whole problem has disappeared?
-
is the current situation really much worse than the oil crisis and recession of the early 70's and 80's ?
Likely not at all. We have just forgotten it, so we feel like the current crisis is something much more serious. The oil crisis kinda resolved almost too quickly, so while good progress was made (for example: thermal energy storage implemented, my house has this too, from 1982), all that went out of fad for cheap energy again.
-
So, if you think really far down the road (10 years? 20 years?) who's to say there isn't a new, very modernising leader in Russia and that the whole problem has disappeared?
I truly think that in 10-20 years we need significantly less fossil fuels. If you look at Germany's progress for example, it has been exceptionally good - just not good enough, not in time for this particular crisis. But they are clearly halfway there, you can easily confirm that, and in just 10 years they have easily doubled the wind, quadrupled PV, implemented heatpumps in trivial estates, and have some actually viable/scalable pilot projects in energy storage.
It's worth noting you don't need to completely stop fossil fuel use, even just halving it will basically solve the political volatility problem and significantly ease the climate thing. Having the asset of burning some fossils significantly helps with the most difficult part, longer term (weeks, months) energy storage. What about calm, cold winter weeks with little wind and solar? Just burn fossils, you can well afford that if it's just a few weeks a year.
Using Germany as an example, they decided to replace both fossil and nuclear by renewables, which is a good target, but did that in the wrong order (in a hindsight).
-
Appeasement is wrong, and resorting to violence as the first response is also wrong. Life (and relations) isn't black and white... which is what cool heads know, and the extremes never get, being so excitable.
The difference between being noncommittal and taking a position is black and white.
Don't give weapons and support to Ukraine? It would have almost certainly caused their quick demise after which NATO and Russia would have moved on to the Baltics. NATO would probably have been forced to station nuclear weapons in the Baltics to show their absolute commitment to its defense and that would have truly brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.
That's why it's appeasement and dangerous.
-
It's worth noting you don't need to completely stop fossil fuel use, even just halving it will basically solve the political volatility problem and significantly ease the climate thing. Having the asset of burning some fossils significantly helps with the most difficult part, longer term (weeks, months) energy storage. What about calm, cold winter weeks with little wind and solar? Just burn fossils, you can well afford that if it's just a few weeks a year.
Exactly. And rather than each car and each house having their own inefficient oil and gas burner, it makes sense to do this in big industrial stoves and turbines with high efficiency and exhaust cleaning, both creating electricity and distributing the heat.
-
Yet, it might end up being not much more than that. We are getting scaremongered and seeing scaring signs, yet: [..]
Yep, this is what the media does not report.
Real wages (for the UK) have fallen this quarter, but are still above the pre-Covid slump. Inflation bites into wages, but there is an unemployment problem, partially caused by Covid. This means workers will continue to be able to demand high wages, and competition in the employment market is high. This is not a bad situation, even for employers oddly, as it keeps things circulating.
Consumer confidence is wavering, but it's still reasonable. There's not a shortage of activity on the high streets around here, people are still spending money.
While I'm not a fan of the overall implementation, the energy bills cap introduced by UK gov't will probably stave off any serious recession. There may be a small one, but c'est la vie. I expect most major EU economies will act similarly. Supporting industry is more difficult.
I am happy to bear some pain if it allows Ukraine to be victorious, and looking at recent results, it may be less time than I expect!
-
I'm not a fan of the overall implementation
whats wrong with the average tax payer paying to line the pockets of the energy companys shareholders?its what the majority voted for after all.
-
is the current situation really much worse than the oil crisis and recession of the early 70's and 80's ?
according to my parents, it is not. Back then they couldn't use private cars during sundays (or weekends?) as there wasn't oil, period.
Currently it just costs "A lot more" (since last november, when it really started, i've spent about 300 euros more on diesel alone, just for going to work. This summer i almost never went far away on weekends because it cost too much)
-
It is sometimes pretty funny to see the approach to this crisis and the war from the side of people coming from the pre-year-1989 "western" countries - something like - "let us negotiate somehow the peace in Ukraine and all will return back to the former life". A rather mechanistic approach, or even quite naive, even childish.
You should perhaps listen more to the new EU countries who spent decades under soviet siege - it could easily be they have a much better understanding what is going on today, as they understand the soviet and russian mentality much much better than the former "westeners"..
This all is not about Ukraine only - 90% of today's RU population considers 70% of current EU (and the future EU, incl. Ukraine in EU), and all the former soviet republics their ultimate "sphere of influence" based on the WWII result (that is for them carved in stone for ever), and they also want to see compensation for all the sanctions they received since ever.. And mind the current leaders there consider ".. the collapse of the Soviet Union the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20tieth century.." [Putin April 29th, 2005], moreover, they still consider the West guilty for the economic turmoil there in 90ties..
All these events what you may see today are simply because the "imperium wants back their sphere of influence". It has less to do with the final outcome of the war in Ukraine or the actual thinking of the current leaders in Kremlin. It will stay the same paradigm even with any other new leaders there. The imperial soviet mentality is simply embedded deep in the souls of the vast majority of their population, effectively amplified by a decades of massive propaganda.
-
So power to gas will be more profitable, and companies will do that. Germany is investing a load of money into that, excess solar power can be used to make your own CNG/LNG.
It's actually a transport problem, because prices in the USA and Canada is 1/10th of the prices here. So we build ships to transport it. Also, probably most of these prices are just going to brokers, who make extra profit. Govmt will step in and limit it when necessary.
The strategic storage tanks are almost full, everyone chillax. Except UK, because they don't want to do the right thing.
That big antagonist red country in the east might be a lot of smaller much friendlier countries in the near future. In 1989 it fell apart so quickly nobody expected.
-
The strategic storage tanks are almost full, everyone chillax. Except UK, because they don't want to do the right thing
we've done the right think,we've taken delivery of lpg and pipeline gas and sold it to europe to help fill there reserves,we'll then buy it back at an inflated price come winter
-
Russia may want and demand a greater sphere of influence, but the only thing it has to offer the West that it really desperately needs is oil and gas. This is going to wane as the EU reverses two decades of disastrous energy policy. And then Russia will be left knocking on the door to China to sell its energy, good luck with that.
-
".. the collapse of the Soviet Union the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20tieth century.." [Putin April 29th, 2005], moreover, they still consider the West guilty for the economic turmoil there in 90ties..
well in way he was right it was a catastrophe, the result was several wars, mass poverty and oligarcs stealing everything of value
afaiu in the same speech he talked about building "an effective state system within the current national borders" with democracy and fighting corruption
I wonder what changed?
-
It is a good move, imho, the EU decided to eliminate the dependency on Russian energy (gas, oil, nuclear), which dependency, btw. has been criticized for at least 2 decades by many politicians, but EU was lazy and childish naive in that regard. Also it is clear that the free market with energies in EU must be regulated during this transition period, so hopefully EU does the necessary steps now. Also Germany and other big players should resume all their nuclear power-plants during that transition period (let say for next 10y), also the coal should come again into the game during that period. The naive green EU should wait for a while.. That transition costs us and it will cost us even more in EU, but at least the next generation will be happy that we finally undertook this painful step..
The problem is you are not supposed to eliminate dependency by destroying your country in the process. The only way EU can live without of Russian gas in short term is shutting down a huge number of factories.
-
I'm not a fan of the overall implementation
whats wrong with the average tax payer paying to line the pockets of the energy companys shareholders?its what the majority voted for after all.
The problem with the "this is what you voted for" argument is that typically when voting there are two, maybe a few more buckets to choose from and every bucket will contain some number of desirable items and some quantity of shit. The only way to avoid voting for a bucket of shit is by not voting at all. The best you can do is aim for the best apparent ratio of good stuff to shit and hope for the best.
-
The only way to avoid voting for a bucket of shit is by not voting at all. The best you can do is aim for the best apparent ratio of good stuff to shit and hope for the best.
Funnily enough no. There are voting systems where the little guy with an appealing message can get the chance without actually throwing your vote into the trashcan, see: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/improving-democracy-through-math/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/improving-democracy-through-math/)
-
The only way to avoid voting for a bucket of shit is by not voting at all. The best you can do is aim for the best apparent ratio of good stuff to shit and hope for the best.
Funnily enough no. There are voting systems where the little guy with an appealing message can get the chance without actually throwing your vote into the trashcan, see: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/improving-democracy-through-math/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/improving-democracy-through-math/)
Well there are certainly advantages to that. You have to be careful though, sometimes the "little guy with an appealing message" turns out to be not very good in practice, we've seen a few of those get elected. It also doesn't change the fact that even those little guys often have some stance on something I don't like. There is no perfect candidate.
-
Zelenski?
-
The only way to avoid voting for a bucket of shit is by not voting at all. The best you can do is aim for the best apparent ratio of good stuff to shit and hope for the best.
Funnily enough no. There are voting systems where the little guy with an appealing message can get the chance without actually throwing your vote into the trashcan, see: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/improving-democracy-through-math/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/improving-democracy-through-math/)
Well there are certainly advantages to that. You have to be careful though, sometimes the "little guy with an appealing message" turns out to be not very good in practice, we've seen a few of those get elected. It also doesn't change the fact that even those little guys often have some stance on something I don't like. There is no perfect candidate.
The alternative to 'giving the little guy with an appealing message a chance' and 'one of two parties or chuck your vote into the trashcan' is to do away with democracy altogether - that's just math.
And yeah, there is no perfect candidate, but with a plurality (say, six) of political parties where none have the majority you can create a situation where they need to work together to get anything done, either forming coalitions of parties or negotiating between themselves. That allows a finer grained choice and the parties are forced to represent a wider range of interests.
I'll be the first one to say that Slovakian politics are a mess, but at least there's a choice - there's some 50 active political parties, 25 of which tried their hand in the last election, 6* of which managed to get into the parliament.
The parties available represented most everything, from communists, through pirates, Christian conservatives, libertarians, various flavors of socialists to nazis**.
* - a tad more complicated.
** - like, actual nazis, whos party members had a history of stuff like marching in uniforms very reminiscent of a very awkward period of Slovakian history...
edit: Formating
-
The problem is you are not supposed to eliminate dependency by destroying your country in the process. The only way EU can live without of Russian gas in short term is shutting down a huge number of factories.
Not sure that is true.
Shortfall of gas is about 25%, given increases in Norway/UK production, additional LNG deliveries, etc. This will probably fall to around 15% within a year but assume 25% for now.
EU has proposed measures to reduce gas usage by 10% in the public sector, currently optional, which may become mandatory. Hungary continues to receive Russian gas without restriction because, well, Orban. Electricity usage will be supplemented by Germany delaying nuclear shut downs.
So realistically if those are implemented you are looking at a 10-15% reduction in gas usage in industry. I think that's manageable, obviously the heaviest industries (glass making is a good example) will struggle more. But a great deal of industrial gas is just spent on heating factories, offices and so on, so that will just mean they are a bit colder.
-
The only way to avoid voting for a bucket of shit is by not voting at all. The best you can do is aim for the best apparent ratio of good stuff to shit and hope for the best.
Funnily enough no. There are voting systems where the little guy with an appealing message can get the chance without actually throwing your vote into the trashcan, see: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/improving-democracy-through-math/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/improving-democracy-through-math/)
Well there are certainly advantages to that. You have to be careful though, sometimes the "little guy with an appealing message" turns out to be not very good in practice, we've seen a few of those get elected. It also doesn't change the fact that even those little guys often have some stance on something I don't like. There is no perfect candidate.
The solution for that is having a system with multiple parties and no absolute power in a single person. Many countries in Europe have such a system and generally this works well because extreme ideas get dampened. Not saying nothing goes wrong ever, but there is a quick counter response not hindered by the short sightedness / tunnel vision of a very small group of people.
-
The problem is you are not supposed to eliminate dependency by destroying your country in the process. The only way EU can live without of Russian gas in short term is shutting down a huge number of factories.
Its well planned and intentionally pursued.
A severely weakened EU is going to be an excellent state to make a "more" obedience EU, good for Washington, think about it for a minute from the white house POV. Also a poor, pissed and frustrated population can be easily to be converted into extremists as the blame/escape goat already set, you can not easily do that on a relatively wealthy/relatively content population.
Another fact is that we are watching Euro and Pound-sterling keep weakening week by week, as UK and EU are keep printing money like crazy, just few days ago UK's PM Least Trust just signed a humongous financial bail out package that is even bigger than the one used in the 2008 global financial crisis in UK. EU central bank is also about to print a lot more, as its not realistic to expect the pain thresholds of each EU countries are identical on the current crisis.
If you have an idle saving in these currencies, convert it to what ever other currency you trust, the sooner the better.
-
The whole western is printing money like mad, with the US no exception. This seems to be a problem of western style democracy: Economical failure of the state, as people vote for an easy life with luxury cars, large housing, health insurance, multiple vacations every year including flights for everybody etc. etc.
And the business sector that works better is an exception to democracy anyway: No free speech in large corporations. Maybe we should respect autocratic governments who try to run and develop their countries like a business and suppress any disturbance from outside.
Regards, Dieter
-
The whole western is printing money like mad, with the US no exception. This seems to be a problem of western style democracy: Economical failure of the state, as people vote for an easy life with luxury cars, large housing, health insurance, multiple vacations every year including flights for everybody etc. etc.
And the business sector that works better is an exception to democracy anyway: No free speech in large corporations. Maybe we should respect autocratic governments who try to run and develop their countries like a business and suppress any disturbance from outside.
Regards, Dieter
When giant businesses and industries in EU are collapsing, wonder how it will hit & drag the financial/banking sector, and once the main EU industrial work horse like Germany is hit hard, as Euro is centrally managed, a domino effect is a sure thing, its just the matter on how fast & how contagiously it spreads throughout EU countries.
Just fyi, one of my friend working at German's chemical giant BASF said workers are worry that mass lay off is coming at their big factory as its totally stopped running for few months now. :scared:
-
There is no need to print new money in EU. EU should start to reflect new geopolitical and economic situation and to focus itself on the most important things - like energy in this very moments. EU should stop throwing big money into various "nice to have" projects and start to manage the today's real issues. That needs quite committed political staff in Brussels and in within the EU countries, what is not the case I think, as building the "nice to have green gardens" is a much more sexier offer for its voters than doing corrective measures in energy sector. I have not heard that any EU program stopped or was put on hold because of the redirection of funding into more important issues.
Kremlin is laughing when they observe what is going on in our Brussels and in our media, where to decide on something takes many years of public discussions and political disputes - while you have to mess with thousands of childishly unimportant EU agendas especially in these days. They call it a "decadent western democracy" and they do not understand how we in EU can live with it and therefore the vast majority of population there does not understand the real need for such a democracy there. They have the Tzar and he will decide on what is important for them within a day.
-
The whole western is printing money like mad, with the US no exception. This seems to be a problem of western style democracy
It's not a problem, it's a feature.
Economical failure of the state
The frequency of depressions has been massively reduced for the cost of a little inflation with an unprecedented era of sustained increases in standards of living. The current problems in real estate have got little to do with money printing and all to do with money distribution, wealth distribution can grow lopsided in any environment.
In general, economies can fail just fine without money printing too ... in fact they do so more frequently.
-
Economists are really good at predicting recessions - they've successfully predicted nine of the last five. ~Paul Samuelson
-
So realistically if those are implemented you are looking at a 10-15% reduction in gas usage in industry. I think that's manageable, obviously the heaviest industries (glass making is a good example) will struggle more. But a great deal of industrial gas is just spent on heating factories, offices and so on, so that will just mean they are a bit colder.
Exactly this, some of the gas is required for chemical processes, which is hardest to replace, but this part is tiny. Some is required for special furnaces etc. which are hard to quickly convert to other energy sources, this is somewhat easier but still difficult to replace.
But, the vast majority of the gas goes to heating, and it makes very little sense to classify the use cases "domestic" vs. "commercial" vs. "industrial", it all boils down to people enjoying being at +20degC but managing at, say +15degC because you can put more clothes on. Yeah, it sucks, I know, but it does not force any office or any factory to go down.
The problem is overreacting to bad news, similarly how COVID was supposed to kill 1% of population, including large numbers of young and heatlhy individuals, yet it didn't.
So again what we will actually see is slight reduction in indoor temperatures (including industrial estates) but not enough to really cause serious health problems. It is way easier to personally protect oneself against cold, than excessive heat.
The lack of components (and everything else!) for the past 2 years has been a much bigger problem for industry in EU, including car industry. It doesn't matter if the factory where you can't build a car due to component shortage has indoor temperature of 20 or 15 degC.
-
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Europe-Wont-Exploit-Its-Huge-Gas-Reserves.html
Didn't know Europe has this much gas reserves
-
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/13/gas-prices-eu-fall-sharply-goldman-sachs-eu-russia (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/13/gas-prices-eu-fall-sharply-goldman-sachs-eu-russia)
"European gas prices likely to fall sharply this winter, says Goldman Sachs"
Good news if it pans out as predicted.
-
"European gas prices likely to fall sharply this winter, says Goldman Sachs"
Good news if it pans out as predicted.
wont make any difference to uk consumers, the price is set in stone for the next 2 years.
-
The Goldman prices are close to the UK cap - 100 EUR/MWh = ~10p/kWh gas, plus supplier overhead would probably make that 13-14p/kWh if no caps were applied. UK cap is 10.4p/kWh. Of course seasonal variations may effect that too.
But the UK price is only a cap, if wholesale costs drop then prices would be expected to fall below that.
-
if wholesale costs drop then prices would be expected to fall below that.
:-DD just like fuel prices dropped when the vat was reduced,or the price of oil fell.
-
I'm sure we can trust Goldman Sachs.
-
https://www.ft.com/content/c936d529-4223-4983-980c-0e4251ed1297 (https://www.ft.com/content/c936d529-4223-4983-980c-0e4251ed1297)
EU targets €140bn from windfall taxes on energy companies
The commission proposal would set a mandatory threshold for prices charged by companies that produce low-cost, non-gas energy, such as nuclear and renewables groups.
Companies would have to give EU states the “excess profits” generated beyond this level, which the commission seeks to set at €180/MWh. But member states would be free to put in place lower thresholds of their own.
Only too bad that it just doesn't go back to the customer directly.
-
https://www.ft.com/content/c936d529-4223-4983-980c-0e4251ed1297 (https://www.ft.com/content/c936d529-4223-4983-980c-0e4251ed1297)
EU targets €140bn from windfall taxes on energy companies
The commission proposal would set a mandatory threshold for prices charged by companies that produce low-cost, non-gas energy, such as nuclear and renewables groups.
Companies would have to give EU states the “excess profits” generated beyond this level, which the commission seeks to set at €180/MWh. But member states would be free to put in place lower thresholds of their own.
Only too bad that it just doesn't go back to the customer directly.
then I'd like to buy from cheap sources, everyone else can buy from the expensive sources ....
when I use a kWh it doesn't matter if it is from cheap or expensive source, if total demand exceeds the cheap sources the fact that I used it caused expensive sources to be needed, if I got compensated for "cheap sources" I wouldn't be as encouraged to save energy, causing even more need for expensive sources
-
I'm sure we can trust Goldman Sachs.
They seem trustworthy to me. They pay their dividends like clockwork!
-
https://www.ft.com/content/c936d529-4223-4983-980c-0e4251ed1297 (https://www.ft.com/content/c936d529-4223-4983-980c-0e4251ed1297)
EU targets €140bn from windfall taxes on energy companies
The commission proposal would set a mandatory threshold for prices charged by companies that produce low-cost, non-gas energy, such as nuclear and renewables groups.
Companies would have to give EU states the “excess profits” generated beyond this level, which the commission seeks to set at €180/MWh. But member states would be free to put in place lower thresholds of their own.
Only too bad that it just doesn't go back to the customer directly.
This was identified early this year in NZ and a Gubbermint desperate for praise reduced the excise tax on motor spirits in some effort to protect the economy from the flow on price increases from increased transport costs.
Yet still we have 8+% inflation and possibly lots more. :o
Again, we are run by children that make decisions to unnecessarily expose us to international energy fluctuations by closing coal mines and importing it FFS, ceasing all onshore and offshore oil/gas exploration and resisting further hydro dam development......all of which NZ will pay dearly for and soon.
Further the muppets tax special use vehicles like utes and such to subsidize EV's FFS which if this winter is anything to go by as the national grid operator has warned electricity retailers to cut back consumption 3 times in a fortnight.....and they want more EV's on the road.....they're blithering idiots !
-
then I'd like to buy from cheap sources, everyone else can buy from the expensive sources ....
when I use a kWh it doesn't matter if it is from cheap or expensive source, if total demand exceeds the cheap sources the fact that I used it caused expensive sources to be needed, if I got compensated for "cheap sources" I wouldn't be as encouraged to save energy, causing even more need for expensive sources
That's how it works in a free market. We are not in a free market, and this is a strategic resource. Why do customers need to pay extra for wind energy, because the price of gas went up? Why is my district heating more expensive? It's done by a coal fired power plant. I have no alternative way of heating my entire house. Because they have a monopoly on the heating supply, and used bad legislation to charge me more money for it.
If you have a windmill park, you got extra profit. Now the EU will step in, take that extra profit and use it the way they deem necessary. I hope they tell the energy suppliers that they have a monopoly on making laws, and if they don't like the extra tax, too bad.
-
The fact we have to pay more money for energies is simply our fault ("we citizens") - it is the fault of every EU/UK citizen who is eligible to vote. We have to pay four our mistakes we have made. We live in the well functioning democracies where we decide, and are responsible for, on how our EU/UK's strategic interests are guarded. You, me, we all in EU/UK are guilty for this crisis and we have to pay the price..
Edit: added UK
-
if wholesale costs drop then prices would be expected to fall below that.
:-DD just like fuel prices dropped when the vat was reduced,or the price of oil fell.
VAT hasn't been dropped on fuel, though.
And the price of fuel has fallen. Around here, it's £1.59/L now, whereas it was up to £1.90/L at peak. This actually lines up fairly nicely with the drop from $130 a barrel to $100 a barrel (20% fall in pump price, 30% fall in oil price, but remember most of the price is tax in the UK.)
-
VAT hasn't been dropped on fuel
my mistake,i meant fuel duty,dropped by 5p a liter
-
then I'd like to buy from cheap sources, everyone else can buy from the expensive sources ....
when I use a kWh it doesn't matter if it is from cheap or expensive source, if total demand exceeds the cheap sources the fact that I used it caused expensive sources to be needed, if I got compensated for "cheap sources" I wouldn't be as encouraged to save energy, causing even more need for expensive sources
That's how it works in a free market. We are not in a free market, and this is a strategic resource. Why do customers need to pay extra for wind energy, because the price of gas went up?
because they use electricity, not wind or gas electricity, it is one big pool. When demand exceeds cheap supply that drives the need for expensive gas electricity, so everyone gets to pay because everyone contributes to the "problem"
Why is my district heating more expensive? It's done by a coal fired power plant. I have no alternative way of heating my entire house. Because they have a monopoly on the heating supply, and used bad legislation to charge me more money for it.
that might be bad legislation, I get district heating from a coal plant, and it hasn't increased in price
If you have a windmill park, you got extra profit. Now the EU will step in, take that extra profit and use it the way they deem necessary. I hope they tell the energy suppliers that they have a monopoly on making laws, and if they don't like the extra tax, too bad.
don't they also get subsidies when the price is low? i.e. it goes both ways they get a fixed price
-
"European gas prices likely to fall sharply this winter, says Goldman Sachs"
Good news if it pans out as predicted.
wont make any difference to uk consumers, the price is set in stone for the next 2 years.
That's only a price cap?
-
Folks.
We speak of Gas Armegeddon......from Putin's narrative, we are getting forced into a full Nuclear war here with Russia.
We have no other choice.
We must embrace full Nuclear war....read post #542 to hear the detail.
Otherwise the Utter Blood Drenched Barbarism meated out to Ukraine by Putin will also come to us.
Its such a shame because the Russian people are such great , wonderful, nice people.
But Putin, and a few of his lackys, calls their shots.
-
Putin isn't going to go nuclear, because his advisors would not let him.
More than the President is needed to launch a missile. The whole chain of command is needed.
And that would almost certainly result in immediate retaliation from NATO. So it is just not an option that will be considered unless Russia is invaded itself.
-
Putin isn't going to go nuclear, because his advisors would not let him.
More than the President is needed to launch a missile. The whole chain of command is needed.
And that would almost certainly result in immediate retaliation from NATO. So it is just not an option that will be considered unless Russia is invaded itself.
One can hope this, but I don't know that I'd count on it. Does anyone really know how things work deep within the Russian government? Are we really that confident on the checks & balances that exist to keep Putin from having too much power?
-
There is no reason for Putin to use nuclear, certainly not even close at this point. Russia is not even all in into a full-fledged war with Ukraine at this moment. Only a relatively small part of total army is deployed there. No conscript soldiers (Russia has a large reserve of that if needed), only professional military who work on contract. The only conscript soldiers are from DPR/LPR (separatist regions of Ukraine). Several orders of escalation are needed before nuclear would be even considered. This is some really weird war FWIW. Ukraine says Europe should stop buying Russian gas while continuing pumping it through their own territory, but Russia supplying gas to an enemy country it is at war. Do not recall something like that in history.
-
Ukraine says Europe should stop buying Russian gas while continuing pumping it through their own territory.
Oh, this one's simple: Europe (esp. Germany) wants to buy Russian gas, but Europe supports Ukraine, so Ukraine's interest is to let the gas flow to their supporter. Basically Europe supports both Ukraine and Russia (through the gas payments, especially artificially inflated gas price).
Getting the gas through is everybody's shared interest so it's no surprise it happens. Even though everyone feels bad doing that.
But it now seems this might be slowly changing with the "we don't want to sell after all, no wait we want, no wait..." & "we don't want to buy, no wait, we want to buy, no wait we don't" game. Let's see what happens.
-
Putin isn't going to go nuclear, because his advisors would not let him.
More than the President is needed to launch a missile. The whole chain of command is needed.
And that would almost certainly result in immediate retaliation from NATO. So it is just not an option that will be considered unless Russia is invaded itself.
The US President is literally all that's required to authorize nuclear launches on a moments notice, so long as he's picking a pre-planned option. (It was a real worry during the Trump administration, given his rhetoric and crazy act.) Sure there are people in the physical chain of command, but they're trained, vetted, and blind tested (they think it's real, even when it's a test) to follow orders -- or they're removed from the chain. All the codes and interlocks are only to verify the order is coming from the President and to prevent any other individual from launching without authority.
I imagine the Russian setup is comparable, with Putin having uncontested launch authority. Talking to advisors before acting would be an unacceptable delay in process. That would come after, when it comes to what happens next.
Sure, there would be consequences, both internally and externally. Retaliation would happen, but unless NATO countries were DIRECTLY targeted it may not be immediate or even nuclear, since the results of escalation to mutually assured destruction levels with a country with sub-based nukes are very high indeed.
So your entire argument really comes down to: I think Putin is too sane to use nukes. If he's got something terminal, maybe not. If he's about to be overthrown, maybe not. If he's a poor loser, maybe not. Are you willing to bet your only world on that logic?
-
This thread is getting largely off-topic already I guess. I'm surprised that it's not locked yet. I admire Dave's sense of moderation here for letting this discussion happen freely.
With that said, I think some people here might want to pause and take a look at the whole situation with a bit of distance to try and understand what's really going on and what is at stake. Probably they should also listen to what was said at the recent Eastern Economic Forum held earlier this month. Or you can just ignore it and keep going with your impressions. Your pick.
-
My impression is that there are two sides, one deliberately attacking unarmed civilians and civil infrastructure, and the other not.
But we see through a glass darkly, and there's a "Fox" or "CNN" station bug burned into the phosphor, so... :-//
-
My impression is that there are two sides, one deliberately attacking unarmed civilians and civil infrastructure, and the other not.
That is one dimension of the situation. The other is that Russia and China seem to want the strengthen their influence on the world's economy and thus have more say in how the world is being run. If you think in terms of east versus west I don't think either side owns the absolute 'truth'. Still it is utterly foolish that peope even want to pursue this east versus west situation. 'Enemy at the gate' is right out of Machiavelli's 'Il Principe' a.k.a. the succesful dictator's handbook. We as 'the people' should not accept our leaders to try and fool us by such a trick.
-
Ukraine says Europe should stop buying Russian gas while continuing pumping it through their own territory, but Russia supplying gas to an enemy country it is at war.
Russian gas is vital to Europe (yet). So Ukraine will be the trusted transmitter of that hell gas until Europe stops buying it itself.
-
Russian gas is vital to Europe (yet). So Ukraine will be the trusted transmitter of that hell gas until Europe stops buying it itself.
Also, Ukraine gets paid by Gazprom some transmission fees, which surely help the economy and war effort.
-
In Europe and America there's a growing feeling of hysteria
Conditioned to respond to all the threats
In the rhetorical speeches of the Soviets
Mister Krushchev said, "We will bury you"
I don't subscribe to this point of view
It'd be such an ignorant thing to do
If the Russians love their children too
How can I save my little boy from Oppenheimer's deadly toy?
There is no monopoly on common sense
On either side of the political fence
We share the same biology, regardless of ideology
Believe me when I say to you
I hope the Russians love their children too
There is no historical precedent
To put the words in the mouth of the president?
There's no such thing as a winnable war
It's a lie we don't believe anymore
Mister Reagan says, "We will protect you"
I don't subscribe to this point of view
Believe me when I say to you
I hope the Russians love their children too
We share the same biology, regardless of ideology
But what might save us, me and you
Is if the Russians love their children too
A song back from USSR days.
Note how only Russians are refferenced .. and may I point out... Mr Khrushchev was Ukrainian who ceded the now contested Crimean peninsula to Ukraine.
-
Lithium prices goes through the roof!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/lithium-smashes-new-record-as-supply-struggles-to-feed-ev-growth?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/lithium-smashes-new-record-as-supply-struggles-to-feed-ev-growth?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets)
-
Lithium prices goes through the roof!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/lithium-smashes-new-record-as-supply-struggles-to-feed-ev-growth?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/lithium-smashes-new-record-as-supply-struggles-to-feed-ev-growth?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets)
We were not expecting this at all. :popcorn:
-
We are also paying high gas prices in Australia because foreign tax evaders like Chevron come here, mine our gas and sell it back to us at record prices. Our politicians are too dumb, inept and lame to fix the problem.
But for the UK and everywhere else, it is best to fix a problem by getting to the root of it. When Putin and his cronies are dispatched to hell, the energy prices in the UK and everywhere else will reduce. To kill a weed you have to pull it out by the roots. Fix the problem at its source.
-
Perhaps a simple solution would be to lower energy rates for households that get limiters installed on their heating systems?
-
Note how only Russians are refferenced .. and may I point out... Mr Khrushchev was Ukrainian who ceded the now contested Crimean peninsula to Ukraine.
He did not. Presidium of the Supreme Soviet (Soviet parliament) did.
-
Whilst official documentation points to the Presidium, a more probable explanation may be found
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/why-did-russia-give-away-crimea-sixty-years-ago (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/why-did-russia-give-away-crimea-sixty-years-ago)
implicating Khrushchev to his gills.
-
Russia is not even all in into a full-fledged war with Ukraine at this moment. Only a relatively small part of total army is deployed there. No conscript soldiers (Russia has a large reserve of that if needed), only professional military who work on contract. The only conscript soldiers are from DPR/LPR (separatist regions of Ukraine).
... and also the musician (Группа Вагнера)
This is some really weird war FWIW. Ukraine says Europe should stop buying Russian gas while continuing pumping it through their own territory, but Russia supplying gas to an enemy country it is at war. Do not recall something like that in history.
Currently, when it comes to gas in EU, all the noise is just distractions to their people, meanwhile EU governments are ...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUB60x_WQAEYtbj.jpg)
-
IBM allegedly supplying the calculating machines to Hitlers war effort?
-
Ukraine says Europe should stop buying Russian gas while continuing pumping it through their own territory.
Oh, this one's simple: Europe (esp. Germany) wants to buy Russian gas, but Europe supports Ukraine, so Ukraine's interest is to let the gas flow to their supporter. Basically Europe supports both Ukraine and Russia (through the gas payments, especially artificially inflated gas price).
Getting the gas through is everybody's shared interest so it's no surprise it happens. Even though everyone feels bad doing that.
But it now seems this might be slowly changing with the "we don't want to sell after all, no wait we want, no wait..." & "we don't want to buy, no wait, we want to buy, no wait we don't" game. Let's see what happens.
Apart from supporting Ukraine & Russia, what you do not realize is also supporting the kleptocrats in Brussels, this moment is the golden opportunity to do that as the Europeans are convinced to be milked with the excuse of punishing Russia. :-DD
The same gas can be obtained far more cheaper (meaning no cut or corruption) thru Nord Stream 2, yes, its weak & vulnerable times for EU when it comes on depending too much on Russia's energy, and this problem needs time to fix.
The stupid question is why the EU elites do it in the most painful and expensive way, instead of cheap one, its still the same evil Russia gas they're buying. :-//
You do not need to be a genius to know there are a bunch elite people (EU kleptocrats) are laughing their way to the bank. :-DD >:D
-
Perhaps a simple solution would be to lower energy rates for households that get limiters installed on their heating systems?
Meanwhile in CNN, Breaking news !!! North Korea is starting to implement heat limiter at every homes, the evil authoritarian government is suppressing the people's right & freedom even to heat a bit more, the freedom over just few degrees warmer of temperature in their home is totally obliterated, can you imagine what ever freedom left for them, what an evil system. :-- :-- :--
Just remember ... don't you dare to apply the same narrative for "exceptionalism" Western world, remember that, or ELSE !!! :-DD
-
While this thread has drifted far OffT but yet still OnT as the content has been largely about cause and effect and the reverse we should show our appreciation to the OP for starting a great discussion where we have mostly seen eye to eye despite the different challenges that await us in the next few months.
Thanks Tom for starting this. :-+
-
Perhaps a simple solution would be to lower energy rates for households that get limiters installed on their heating systems?
Similar things already exist, but the unwashed masses turn it around and make out like its unfair (the poster above this being an example). Already came up in this thread... with the same poster adding misleading drama around it:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4396097/#msg4396097 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4396097/#msg4396097)
Water is considered an essential resource for residents, but its supply pricing is treated quite differently to the "equally" essential electricity/gas/heating. Here in Australia the first essential 400-500 litres per day (averaged over the billing period) is charged at a lower rate, then usage beyond that is at a higher rate (often much much higher). Gas and electricity? the reverse! most (all?) tiered plans make the unit cost cheaper the more you use.
-
Perhaps a simple solution would be to lower energy rates for households that get limiters installed on their heating systems?
Similar things already exist, but the unwashed masses turn it around and make out like its unfair (the poster above this being an example). Already came up in this thread... with the same poster adding misleading drama around it:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4396097/#msg4396097 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4396097/#msg4396097)
Water is considered an essential resource for residents, but its supply pricing is treated quite differently to the "equally" essential electricity/gas/heating. Here in Australia the first essential 400-500 litres per day (averaged over the billing period) is charged at a lower rate, then usage beyond that is at a higher rate (often much much higher). Gas and electricity? the reverse! most (all?) tiered plans make the unit cost cheaper the more you use.
Read here in Swiss -> https://switzerlandtimes.ch/politics/heat-sinners-face-jail/ (https://switzerlandtimes.ch/politics/heat-sinners-face-jail/)
-
Russia wants Ukraine and other countries bordering on it to be under its influence. It is as natural as China influences the countries bordering it. Or the US to Mexico and Latin America. Every strong neighbor influences the weak one. In Europe, too, there is an influence of strong countries on weak ones. And all the strong countries are fighting among themselves for influence over the weak, if they are of any interest. Ukraine was not lucky that Russia and the West wanted to influence it. The fact that Russia is against the influence of the West in Ukraine is as natural as if the United States were against the influence of Russia on Mexico.
My opinion may seem wrong to someone here, since the overwhelming majority of people here are pro-Western. But there are people in the world who think otherwise. And they also believe their point of view is correct.
The Ukrainian colleague above called Ukraine a reliable gas supplier. I do not want to agree with this, because I remember what happened about 15 years ago. Then Ukraine was stealing gas going to Europe. Now many do not remember this, because Europe has not received problems because of this. But it was.
-
Perhaps a simple solution would be to lower energy rates for households that get limiters installed on their heating systems?
Similar things already exist, but the unwashed masses turn it around and make out like its unfair (the poster above this being an example). Already came up in this thread... with the same poster adding misleading drama around it:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4396097/#msg4396097 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4396097/#msg4396097)
Water is considered an essential resource for residents, but its supply pricing is treated quite differently to the "equally" essential electricity/gas/heating. Here in Australia the first essential 400-500 litres per day (averaged over the billing period) is charged at a lower rate, then usage beyond that is at a higher rate (often much much higher). Gas and electricity? the reverse! most (all?) tiered plans make the unit cost cheaper the more you use.
Read here in Swiss -> https://switzerlandtimes.ch/politics/heat-sinners-face-jail/ (https://switzerlandtimes.ch/politics/heat-sinners-face-jail/)
That's the extreme end of mandating population wide limits, a blunt instrument as individuals weren't incentivised to make the change for their own benefit. Introducing or requiring variable pricing could avoid the need for such harsh measures. But you'll just argue that any change to reduce peoples energy use is an affront to their freedoms.
The days of cheap/infinite energy on demand are no longer here and may never come back. There needs to be some change, be that free market (the rich can pay and the poor freeze), or totalitarian (everyone must set their thermostat to exactly this number). Somewhere in-between is going to be more palatable for most.
Suggesting that there is a non-linear pricing where people get a subsidised essential/basic/livable daily budget at an affordable price, and then tax/milk those who want more doesn't sound silly. Much better than subsidising (or worse capping) everyones bills indiscriminately.
Which is why this is so political, helping out those who need it? socialism communism! communism bad! rah rah rah. Distracting from the actual economic disaster that is pending. Which your inflammatory posts are just perpetuating.
-
Gas and electricity? the reverse! most (all?) tiered plans make the unit cost cheaper the more you use.
Same here, the government is planning a subsidy program where electricity costs exceeding a certain threshold can apply for 60% tax deduction, and this threshold is pretty high. It's a subsidy for those who are wasting a lot of energy, who bought excessively large house with direct electric heating, and always failed to retrofit any heatpumps although they have been highly popular here for 15 years now, or do anything about their energy use, really.
The poorest get no help, again.
-
Perhaps a simple solution would be to lower energy rates for households that get limiters installed on their heating systems?
Similar things already exist, but the unwashed masses turn it around and make out like its unfair (the poster above this being an example). Already came up in this thread... with the same poster adding misleading drama around it:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4396097/#msg4396097 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/gas-armageddon-energyelectricity-prices-in-euuk-(and-how-to-deal-with-them)/msg4396097/#msg4396097)
Water is considered an essential resource for residents, but its supply pricing is treated quite differently to the "equally" essential electricity/gas/heating. Here in Australia the first essential 400-500 litres per day (averaged over the billing period) is charged at a lower rate, then usage beyond that is at a higher rate (often much much higher). Gas and electricity? the reverse! most (all?) tiered plans make the unit cost cheaper the more you use.
Read here in Swiss -> https://switzerlandtimes.ch/politics/heat-sinners-face-jail/ (https://switzerlandtimes.ch/politics/heat-sinners-face-jail/)
Fake news.
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/fact-check--will-the-swiss-be-jailed-for-heating-their-homes-above-19-c-/47894052 (https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/fact-check--will-the-swiss-be-jailed-for-heating-their-homes-above-19-c-/47894052)
-
Putin isn't going to go nuclear, because his advisors would not let him.
Putin will go nuclear when we go nuclear on him.
We have no choice but to go absolute full nuclear on Putin if he doesnt get Russia totally out of all Ukraine.
..As per my threads #542 and #619 above.
-
Putin isn't going to go nuclear, because his advisors would not let him.
Putin will go nuclear when we go nuclear on him.
We have no choice but to go absolute full nuclear on Putin if he doesnt get Russia totally out of all Ukraine.
..As per my threads #542 and #619 above.
It might seem you can't see the wood for the Treez.
The sacrifice is far too great with nukes whereas if the EU was to grow some gonads and make a far lesser sacrifice as it should've months ago and all stand shoulder to shoulder against the aggressor, the most dangerous leader in a century, this would be have been all over by now with a very clear line in the sand and a strong message not to cross it !
But, if we continue to be run by children the current state of affairs will continue for some while yet.
When there are zero ppls left in Ukraine to defend their nation is the EU to watch it be taken by default ?
-
and everybody ignores alleged deaths of some 15000 Ukrainian citizens in Donbas slaughtered by the Ukrainian government in the past seven to eight years way before Russia went into U sector and kraine.
These people were murdered by the followers of Bandera often times as members of the Right Sector and Azov brigades with the blessing of Kiev government.
-
Whilst official documentation points to the Presidium, a more probable explanation may be found
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/why-did-russia-give-away-crimea-sixty-years-ago (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/why-did-russia-give-away-crimea-sixty-years-ago)
implicating Khrushchev to his gills.
Crimea was very stagnating region with soviets (within Russian Soviet Republic inside USSR), and especially bad it become when Stalin deported Crimean Tatars from Crimea in 1944. A lot of russians were invited to former Tatars homes. But russians showed themselves as bad owners of that soil.
At the same time Ukrainians were well known as good at agriculture and good masters. So, transmitting a Crimea from Russian Soviet Republic to Ukraine Soviet Republic government (inside USSR) was just a good reasonable practical decision. And it was proved fine (Soviets made not only bad decisions but sometimes they did something reasonable too).
-
These people were murdered by the followers of Bandera often times as members of the Right Sector and Azov brigades with the blessing of Kiev government.
This is misinformation and russian terrorist state propaganda.
-
and everybody ignores alleged deaths of some 15000 Ukrainian citizens in Donbas slaughtered by the Ukrainian government in the past seven to eight years way before Russia went into U sector and kraine.
Nobody is ignoring that but the big question is: who told those people to take up arms against their own government? If you start a civil war against the government, it is to be expected that there will be casualties.
-
and everybody ignores alleged deaths of some 15000 Ukrainian citizens in Donbas slaughtered by the Ukrainian government in the past seven to eight years way before Russia went into U sector and kraine.
Nobody is ignoring that but the big question is: who told those people to take up arms against their own government? If you start a civil war against the government, it is to be expected that there will be casualties.
The problem is that it wasn't the government they elected. It was government led by ultra nationalists which came in power in coup d'etat.
-
They did not take up arms...all they wanted was self determination WITHIN Ukraine.
I repeat WITHIN Ukraine.
All they got was death and destruction from Kiev government. Not freedom of choice.
-
They did not take up arms
If they didn't it would have been a very short lived separatism.
-
The problem is that it wasn't the government they elected. It was government led by ultra nationalists which came in power in coup d'etat.
'Thank you' for giving us one more russian propaganda item. Russian FSB opinion is very important for us. /s
This statement is so dumb I even don't want to discuss it. Sorry.
-
The problem is that it wasn't the government they elected. It was government led by ultra nationalists which came in power in coup d'etat.
'Thank you' for giving us one more russian propaganda item. Russian FSB opinion is very important for us. /s
This statement is so dumb I even don't want to discuss it. Sorry.
I don't care about FSB opinion. But I know very well about Right sector checkpoints https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_Sector (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_Sector) on the roads and massacre in Odessa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Odesa_clashes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Odesa_clashes) as I was on a business trip near Odesa at the time. IIRC the same day a few helicopters where shot down at Donbass. No serious blood was spilled before that, except during coup d'etat in Kiev. Next day I quickly left Ukraine though Moldova border on foot to get away from that shit. Here is a photo from my old passport to prove I don't talk rubbish.
-
Well, if they weren't "ultra nationalists" before, they certainly are now. >:(
Heck of a job, Vlad.
-
and everybody ignores alleged deaths of some 15000 Ukrainian citizens in Donbas slaughtered by the Ukrainian government in the past seven to eight years way before Russia went into U sector and kraine.
Nobody is ignoring that but the big question is: who told those people to take up arms against their own government? If you start a civil war against the government, it is to be expected that there will be casualties.
The problem is that it wasn't the government they elected. It was government led by ultra nationalists which came in power in coup d'etat.
It is not that simple. There is a whole string of events going back from the fall of the USSR that has led to the current situation in Ukraine with many players involved. If you really want to point fingers, you need to unravel that first in great detail (and likely get rid of layers of propaganda in the process) to dig down to the actual facts.
-
and everybody ignores alleged deaths of some 15000 Ukrainian citizens in Donbas slaughtered by the Ukrainian government in the past seven to eight years way before Russia went into U sector and kraine.
Nobody is ignoring that but the big question is: who told those people to take up arms against their own government? If you start a civil war against the government, it is to be expected that there will be casualties.
The problem is that it wasn't the government they elected. It was government led by ultra nationalists which came in power in coup d'etat.
It is not that simple. There is a whole string of events going back from the fall of the USSR that has led to the current situation in Ukraine with many players involved. If you really want to point fingers, you need to unravel that first in great detail (and likely get rid of layers of propaganda in the process) to dig down to the actual facts.
And US certainly has nothing to do with that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdygnTrrGVI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdygnTrrGVI)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV9J6sxCs5k (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV9J6sxCs5k)
-
I never implied the US has nothing to do with what is happening. It would be utterly naive to think that the US has been sitting on their hands. Earlier in this thread I already wrote that it wouldn't surprise me if it turns out the US has helped Poetin to gain power over Russia. Then again I'm not going to rely on random Youtube videos posing as a reliable source of information.
Either way, it is going to be more productive on focussing on how to resolve the situation and keep it stable in the future. For that to happen Russia has to get (or kicked) out of Ukraine first. After that everyone can calm down.
-
Either way, it is going to be more productive on focussing on how to resolve the situation and keep it stable in the future. For that to happen Russia has to get (or kicked) out of Ukraine first. After that everyone can calm down.
Putin will loose his grip on power when Russian military is defeated in Ukraine.
The fastest way to do it - give Ukraine weapons it needs.
-
Either way, it is going to be more productive on focussing on how to resolve the situation and keep it stable in the future. For that to happen Russia has to get (or kicked) out of Ukraine first. After that everyone can calm down.
Putin will loose his grip on power when Russian military is defeated in Ukraine.
The fastest way to do it - give Ukraine weapons it needs.
Or it happens in exactly opposite way, ensures prolonged stalemate war and maximizes casualties. Sure it will weaken Russia a lot. However the price of humans lives in Ukraine would be devastating.
-
Either way, it is going to be more productive on focussing on how to resolve the situation and keep it stable in the future. For that to happen Russia has to get (or kicked) out of Ukraine first. After that everyone can calm down.
Putin will loose his grip on power when Russian military is defeated in Ukraine.
The fastest way to do it - give Ukraine weapons it needs.
Or it happens in exactly opposite way, ensures prolonged stalemate war and maximizes casualties. Sure it will weaken Russia a lot. However the price of humans lives in Ukraine would be devastating.
what's the alternative, let Putin have Ukraine and hope he doesn't decide to "denazify" more neighboring countries?
-
Implement the Minsk agreement.
France and Germany need to face up to their responsibility as guarantors of the agreement.
As is Ukrainian leadership past and present has admitted to using the negotiation to delay resolution and to prepare for war not for peace.
In other words Ukraine negotiated in bad faith never intending to adhere to the agreement.
In the meantime Donbas civilians kept being slaughtered for seven, eight years.
And our tax dollar is being used to support these activities.
-
Or it happens in exactly opposite way, ensures prolonged stalemate war and maximizes casualties. Sure it will weaken Russia a lot. However the price of humans lives in Ukraine would be devastating.
I'm sure that Russia would stop at Ukraine, and it would be to the benefit of the locals if Russia took over. I mean, appeasement of a sort always worked so far, right? Okay, the USSR screwed up historically several times in that area, among other things creating a system which managed to screw up massively enough to create a massive famine that took millions of lives on one of the most fertile lands in the world, purges, the whole delights of communism complete with a secret police thing... but I'm sure that was a fluke(s), and it's frankly a wonder that the Ukrainians aren't greeting the effective successors to the USSR with open arms! (sarcasm)
At the end of the day I'd say that it's up to the Ukrainians - the option for them to give up was always on the table. It seems clear to me that they keep on fighting despite the horrors inflicted upon them by Russia. As far as I'm concerned, that's heroism.
And, just saying, applying a similar mindset (don't support the defending side to "minimize loss of life") during WW2 could have shortened the war considerably, if with a slightly different result.
-
Or it happens in exactly opposite way, ensures prolonged stalemate war and maximizes casualties. Sure it will weaken Russia a lot. However the price of humans lives in Ukraine would be devastating.
Russia can stop the bloodshed anytime they want, simply by leaving.
Ukraine can stop the bloodshed anytime they want, simply by surrendering.
Sounds like you favor the second outcome, if I'm not mistaken? That seems a bit harsh.
-
Or it happens in exactly opposite way, ensures prolonged stalemate war and maximizes casualties. Sure it will weaken Russia a lot. However the price of humans lives in Ukraine would be devastating.
Russia can stop the bloodshed anytime they want, simply by leaving.
Ukraine can stop the bloodshed anytime they want, simply by surrendering.
Sounds like you favor the second outcome, if I'm not mistaken? That seems a bit harsh.
Spineless would be my take on it and they've proved to the whole world spineless they certainly are not.
Other parts of EU I'm not so sure. :-//
-
Or it happens in exactly opposite way, ensures prolonged stalemate war and maximizes casualties. Sure it will weaken Russia a lot. However the price of humans lives in Ukraine would be devastating.
This depends on West’s willingness to provide necessary weapons.
Ukrainian Armed Forces need heavy armor, such as main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, to conduct offensive operations to liberate its land from Russian occupation forces. 7 months since the invasion started, neither the US, nor UK, nor Germany are willing to supply heavy armor.
With such inadequate support from the West, there is risk that the war will last for several years, with heavy toll on both sides.
Increasing security assistance to Ukraine, will expedite downfall of Russia’s fascists regime, and will save many thousands of lives.
-
there is risk that the war will last for several years,
excellent news for those with shares in the arms industry
Increasing security assistance to Ukraine, will expedite downfall of Russia
or pull the west into the conflict
-
and massacre in Odessa
That wasn't a 'massacre'. That was a tragedy fire caused by russian terrorist-separatist forces. They thought that Odessa is 'a Russian city' because it is 100% russian speaking. So russians wanted to 'protect' it by occupation (as usual).
You want to present to us that tragic accident as a system. But not. There wasn't anything similar pre- and after that.
-
Implement the Minsk agreement.
This agreement died on 24 February 2022. Instead:
1) Send Russian troops home
2) Prosecute war criminals and warmongers
3) Pay for the damages
-
or pull the west into the conflict
Genius! Assuming you live in NATO country, are you personally going to defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, when Putin is done with Ukraine and gets his hands on 20 million conscripts?
Edit: would not it be better to destroy Putin’s regime now, when it is weak, using hands and lives of Ukrainian military, equipping them with necessary weapons?
-
Better yet, grant Ukraine NATO membership now. The war will be over in 24 hours, with Putin’s retreat.
-
Better yet, grant Ukraine NATO membership now. The war will be over in 24 hours, with Putin’s retreat.
can't join NATO while in a conflict and Ukraine is no where near fulfilling the requirements for NATO membership
-
and everybody ignores alleged deaths of some 15000 Ukrainian citizens in Donbas slaughtered by the Ukrainian government in the past seven to eight years way before Russia went into U sector and kraine.
These people were murdered by the followers of Bandera often times as members of the Right Sector and Azov brigades with the blessing of Kiev government.
So, those '15000' dead citizens were 'protected from the Right Sector and Azov brigades' in Donbas by russia? Ok, if they die 'protected' then we all can guess how many Ukrainian citizens were killed by 'the Right Sector and Azov brigades' on the 'unprotected' (unoccupied) territory 'with the blessing of Kiev government'. It was about 90-95% of a territory unoccupied by russia. So, it must be at least 10x15000 killed or even an order or two more, eh? But not, there were about 0 (ZERO) citizens 'murdered' on a Ukraine government-controlled territory by 'the Right Sector and Azov brigades' (which is not surprising).
That is why we may make a conclusion about who is an aggressor and from which side aggression went from.
-
or pull the west into the conflict
Genius! Assuming you live in NATO country, are you personally going to defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, when Putin is done with Ukraine and gets his hands on 20 million conscripts?
The army is getting rekt by 16 Himars. The west has 500, and no better targets.
More Javelin has been sent to Ukraine, than the number of tanks russia has, and the system has 93% successful kill ratio.
Meanwhile they are conscripting convicted felons, sending it to the front in 60 year old tanks.
The reality of the situation is that we have a rocket for everything they have, ten times over, at any distance.
-
Better yet, grant Ukraine NATO membership now. The war will be over in 24 hours, with Putin’s retreat.
As a Ukrainian, I would want it, but I understand that it doesn't work in such a way for an ongoing conflict. So, we have to end it ourselves. We just need some help with weaponry etc.
BTW, close to the topic: Ukraine sells a lot of electricity to the EU now. It was a long process before, and the Ukrainian grid was connected to the EU right at beginning of this war. We sell electricity to Romania and Slovakia now.
-
Implement the Minsk agreement.
I haven't seen anything russia has done to implement them. Had russia withdrawn its forces from Donbas? - no!
Ukrainians were agree for peacekeeping forces from the UN - but russia was agree only with their own russian 'peacekeeping forces'. So, obviously, that is not a deal. Because there isn't any difference between their occupating armed forces and their 'peacekeeping forces'.
-
The army is getting rekt by 16 Himars. The west has 500, and no better targets.
More Javelin has been sent to Ukraine, than the number of tanks russia has, and the system has 93% successful kill ratio.
Meanwhile they are conscripting convicted felons, sending it to the front in 60 year old tanks.
The reality of the situation is that we have a rocket for everything they have, ten times over, at any distance.
Well, that’s excellent analysis of a rational person.
I doubt, however, that when it comes to Putin, we are dealing with rational person who has access to good analysts. If that was true, Putin would not have started this war.
Now Putin’s rationale for going after a NATO state, once he is done with Ukraine, could be as follows:
1) Once Russia occupies Ukraine, a country of 40 million, Putin will get his hands on 10-20 million of potential conscripts, saving him from hiring convicts.
2) If you listen to Russian state media, it is the West, and in particular NATO, who is the Russian’s enemy, not Ukraine. For Putin, giving NATO a blow, would be both a revenge and an opportunity to restore Russia’s dominance in Eastern Europe.
3) Putin does not seem to be suicidal. He will not attack the US, the UK, or any other state with nuclear weapons. When giving NATO the blow, he will choose the easiest victim. Most likely one of smaller Baltic countries with large ethnic Russian population, one that can be overrun by tank division in several hours.
4) By the time leaders of NATO nations could even meet to discuss their response, the occupiers would already have taken control of all government and critical infrastructure buildings, and a caucus of local collaborators would have voted for accession to New Soviet Union.
Over the next few months, there would be heated debates both in the US media and in the US Administration, on whether the US should provide military support to the government that ceased to exist, and risk full blown nuclear confrontation with Russia. Media stars, such as Tucker Carlson, would argue during prime time that the Baltic state was corrupt, supported Nazis in 1941, and that the US has more important things to do.
In Europe, Germany would send a truckload of band aids, but would be hesitant to send troops, afraid of disruption to Nord Stream 1, 2 and 3 operations.
Elections in France would finally swing in favor of Le Pen, where citizens would overwhelmingly demand France’s exit from NATO, refusing to give lives of French military for freedom of the faraway country.
Other NATO states would also refuse meeting their Article 5 obligations, denouncing their NATO memberships.
5) Others, such as Poland, would be watching Russian hoards, made mostly of millions of Ukrainian conscripts, gathering at their borders.
-
Or it happens in exactly opposite way, ensures prolonged stalemate war and maximizes casualties.
I see a Latvian flag on your profile but... (somehow I think you are not Latvian but a Russian who accidentally lives in Latvia). May I ask you a question: Was Latvia occupied since 1940 by the Soviet Union or not?
-
Quote from: IconicPCB on Yesterday at 09:22:05 pm
Implement the Minsk agreement.
This agreement died on 24 February 2022
Well that is true... I bet though Ukrainian peoples wish that option were still available to them.
But it is too late for that option... the two republics have been recognised as independent states now.
It will be impossible to unwind their independence now.
-
it is the West, and in particular NATO, who is the Russian’s enemy, not Ukraine.
That sounds familiar,o yea americas excuse for going into Vietnam wasnt to fight the Vietnamese,it was to stop the spread of communism in south asia. And then a few years later got really arsey when one of its neighbors wanted a few nukes.
-
It will be impossible to unwind their independence now.
Easy peasy to unwind. The process is called goodwill gesture:
https://youtu.be/uQgQVzJ_rR4
:)
-
it is the West, and in particular NATO, who is the Russian’s enemy, not Ukraine.
That sounds familiar,o yea americas excuse for going into Vietnam wasnt to fight the Vietnamese,it was to stop the spread of communism in south asia. And then a few years later got really arsey when one of its neighbors wanted a few nukes.
Well, learn Russian, and then read and listen to Russian media. With technology from companies like Google, you may be able to skip the former…
-
It will be impossible to unwind their independence now.
Easy peasy to unwind. The process is called goodwill gesture:
https://youtu.be/uQgQVzJ_rR4
:)
Except democracy beats Your wishful thinking. Russia entered Ukraine after eight years of negotiations and 15000 civilians getting slaughtered by right wing extremists with Ukrainian government's blessing.
Now that Donbas republics are established we can say the bread is broken, the loaf will never be whole in one piece. Ukraine lost all credibility by rejecting a peaceful solution ( NORMANDY FORMAT MINSK AGREEMENT) which guaranteed Donbas republics would remain within Ukraine.
This decision is now resulting in voices asserting modern Ukraine borders are unnatural such that :
"... The former Romanian diplomat made the controversial remark earlier on Saturday at the Alba Transylvania book fair, where he presented his new book ‘The Fate of Democracy’ and suggested that leading world powers should come together and agree on a new “security structure” in Europe and worldwide.
We are in a very special situation here, and I take this with all responsibility, Ukraine exists in unnatural borders. It should cede Transcarpathia to Hungary, Galicia to Poland, Bukovina to Romania, Donbass and Crimea to Russia. These are the territories of other countries,” he said, listing the regions that were incorporated into then-Soviet Ukraine by the Communists, but which he thinks should be relinquished..."
One more thing to consider...ask Yourself what is happening with Ukrainian refugees in Poland? How well are they being integrated into polish society and what does that mean for Polish claims on Ukrainian borders?
-
and massacre in Odessa
That wasn't a 'massacre'. That was a tragedy fire caused by russian terrorist-separatist forces. They thought that Odessa is 'a Russian city' because it is 100% russian speaking. So russians wanted to 'protect' it by occupation (as usual).
You want to present to us that tragic accident as a system. But not. There wasn't anything similar pre- and after that.
Do not lie. There are many videos where Molotov cocktail bottles are thrown at the house, and the police stand by and do nothing. Or is the police of Ukraine also pro-Russian terrorist-separatist? There, some citizens of Ukraine burned others because of their political views, but the authorities did nothing. The West, which patronizes Ukraine, pretended that nothing had happened. If the dead threatened Ukraine, then why weren't they arrested earlier?
-
I am tired of this blatant whinge and win Ukrainian attitude.
It may be time to return to the original topic.
Let Vovk and his kind start a topic on their own. It may be time to just ignore their " ALTERNATE FACTS " and get on with our lives in the hope our taxes will not be squandered by our politicians.
My ( hopefully ) final response to this subject.
-
I am tired
The problem is this:
You are safely in Australia. Putin is not going to ass-rape your family. Me live in Finland. Me have wife and kid. Me have Putin next door, ready to turn my kid into a Russian and me and my wife into pieces of meat.
And we have been conditioned with the exact same propaganda that was used prior to attacking Ukraine. This is why I know. I don't need to try to navigate within two different and opposite sources of propaganda. I can see right through it.
Now get this: when Putin decides Finland is worth of their resources to pursue and attack here, then you will go: MUH I KNOW THE FACTS Finland is a former nazi country where kids of Russians are routinely taken into custody, I know because I follow the REAL sources muh muh!
This is because you don't have a freaking clue what and where Finland is, and suddenly someone brings up decade-old articles how we are nazis here. WE know where this bullshit originated from, but you don't. To you, it clicks in place - oh, two sides of coin, this is a nazi country, so maybe denazification isn't that bad? This is a conflict, not a war.
You are a dangerous individual, because you are a so-called useful idiot. And worse, I consider you and some others direct threat to me and my family.
-
Do not lie.
It is also really interesting to see how moderators of this forum have decided outsiders can now register on the forum just to join political threads.
I understand flexing on the rules to allow regulars sometimes drift into politics before locking the threads. I however do not understand letting Kremlin propaganda bots register on the forum with no real participation on electronics-related topics.
-
It would be nice if we could focus on
- How to deal with high prices as an individual
- What long term forecasts look like
- Causes of the gas shortage (not just Russia, as prices were high pre-invasion)
Without focusing too much on the invasion of Ukraine which will always be politically charged.
Maybe?
-
Do not lie.
It is also really interesting to see how moderators of this forum have decided outsiders can now register on the forum just to join political threads.
I understand flexing on the rules to allow regulars sometimes drift into politics before locking the threads. I however do not understand letting Kremlin propaganda bots register on the forum with no real participation on electronics-related topics.
So as we are on the topic of propaganda and lies perhaps you can explain this "process" whereby we explicitly decide to allow anything. This forum is mostly self regulating, if you don't report then we don't know! not knowing something is happening is totally different from explicitly allowing it. User registrations are not screened.
I will now lock this topic as clearly it will never stay on topic, I am amazed at so few reports on a topic like this that has run for so long.