General > General Technical Chat
Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
asmi:
--- Quote from: Simon on April 13, 2023, 09:14:35 pm ---I don't think that it is only your argument that is simple. You seem to dominate this discussion to the point that I have several reports complaining about you.
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That is not unexpected and is very reminicent of a certain group of people who's only means to win an argument is to silence the opposition. Because they know they can't ever win a rational debate due to lack of rational arguments.
--- Quote from: Simon on April 13, 2023, 09:14:35 pm ---From the little I have time to read of your output you are just talking nonesense.
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That is a rather bold claim bordering on insult. Care to back it up with something such that it won't look like abuse of power?
--- Quote from: Simon on April 13, 2023, 09:14:35 pm ---Your point being? the nature of how the sun produces the energy and it's efficiency is rather irrelevant. We don't have to put fuel into the sun last time I checked. Perhaps you can enlighten us?
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Again - I did, read below. And yes it is relevant.
--- Quote from: Simon on April 13, 2023, 09:14:35 pm ---Will we? again where do you get this knowledge from? You know how much energy we will need in the future? do you know how much energy we receive from the sun?
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ALL energy we receive ultimately came from the Sun in one way or another. But energy consumption will only grow, because that is the metric of civilizational development, so at some point it will overtake anything that Sun can provide us no matter how large that amount is. If you want a proof that energy consumption will only ever grow, look at entire history of humankind. All technological advances hinged on using more and more energy. There is no historical precedent when that wasn't the case.
--- Quote from: Simon on April 13, 2023, 09:14:35 pm ---You seem to be talking about fusion as though it is already here. In case you missed it, we currently use fission, fusion will be here in 30 years, or so they have been telling us for over 30 years I beleive.
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If you lose the nuclear competence, you will NEVER get to fusion. It's that simple. But others will, because they are more forward-looking and strategic. You can guess what happens next by looking at the last say 500 years of the history.
Someone:
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on April 13, 2023, 08:03:52 pm ---
--- Quote from: Neutrion on April 13, 2023, 05:23:19 pm ---2.You hwever were arguing that generally running an energy system on renewable not possible, in the near future.
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I also think it's just not possible in any near future. Just fricking do the maths with any kind of existing tech and what is reasonably possible.
You (and people making the same claims) are somehow reversing the burden of the proof by asking people to prove that it's not possible, when basic facts and evidence is all over the place, while claiming something that is backed only by speculation and fantasy at this point.
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It has been possible for decades, but at an unpalatable cost. Right now with proven and existing technology the cheapest electricity is from renewables, even up to 100% in all but extreme corner cases (still possible but no longer the cheapest option).
So we're past the point of wondering if it can be done at all, to wondering why it isn't happening faster... given that renewable energy is now the lowest cost option.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
Pretty much only America is still holding onto the dream of cheaply available gas.
james_s:
--- Quote from: asmi on April 13, 2023, 06:01:09 pm ---
--- Quote from: Neutrion on April 13, 2023, 05:37:27 pm ---If you don't belive in climate change, than your argumentation is valid, but science doesn't support your case
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Science on the climate change is not conclusive, with a lot of fakes and preposterous extrapolations on both sides, which is why I don't have a position either way. But it doesn't really matter, because moving industry from one place to another doesn't change the grand total of pollution, so it has a zero net effect on a climate. As for what I do believe - I believe in science, but real science, not fake one.
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I think it's pretty clear that humans have contributed to climate change. I think it's also pretty clear that it's totally unrealistic to do much of anything about it unless somebody invents a time machine. The damage has been already done, and even if we completely stop burning fossil fuels, the developing world will just pick up the slack. The most optimistic studies I've read make it sound pretty hopeless.
Siwastaja:
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on April 13, 2023, 08:03:52 pm ---I also think it's just not possible in any near future. Just fricking do the maths with any kind of existing tech and what is reasonably possible.
You (and people making the same claims) are somehow reversing the burden of the proof by asking people to prove that it's not possible, when basic facts and evidence is all over the place, while claiming something that is backed only by speculation and fantasy at this point. Unless maybe you have a very elastic definition of "near future", of course.
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This is all meaningless BS if you don't clearly define what is being claimed and discussed. Your commentary would be valid and agreeable if the target is to completely stop using any fossil fuels at all. But is anyone else except yourself (and your like-minded) discussing this? Sounds like a classic strawman argument to me.
You are basically saying "this is impossible, prove otherwise", without defining what this refers to. Childish way to discuss IMHO.
Zero fossil target plays especially badly when you couple it to the "nuclear good" mindset, because as I explained, nuclear needs significant amount of supporting fossil fuels, just like the renewables of today.
daqq:
--- Quote from: tom66 on April 13, 2023, 01:06:32 pm ---This! So true.
In the UK, in 2013, the installed wind capacity was around 10GW. Now, in 2023, it is approaching 30GW.
On a particularly gusty day we are already looking at all night time load being wind provided, and within another decade it is possible there will be weeks when renewable energy is providing power exclusively.
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Capacity is not the same as power. Installing 100GW of renewables capacity is not the same as being able to shut down 100GW worth of other sources.
edit: As to storage, see: https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2013/07/10/can-the-uk-get-100-of-its-electricity-from-wind-farms/
See attachments (yes, possibly cherrypicked data, but quite realistic scenarios):
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