Author Topic: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th  (Read 24159 times)

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Offline tom66

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #125 on: April 14, 2023, 08:54:28 am »
Capacity is not the same as power. Installing 100GW of renewables capacity is not the same as being able to shut down 100GW worth of other sources.

See attachments (yes, possibly cherrypicked data, but quite realistic scenarios):

Yes of course, you cannot use renewables only.  This is why you combine renewables with storage (hydrogen looks like a possible contender, but other options are available).  You use the stored energy during periods with less wind/solar/etc.  And combine that with long HVDC links that can move power across the European continent or from north Africa, or repurpose suitable gas transmission systems to move hydrogen. 

Once you have an 'overbuilt' network you have huge incentives to use that energy instead of storing it because using it is cheaper than storing and using it later.  So there come certain incentives to use energy when it's most available,  you can imagine aluminium smelters for instance following wind or solar patterns with their shifts, or electric vehicles which spend most of their time parked up charging on excess energy at low cost.
 

Offline daqqTopic starter

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #126 on: April 14, 2023, 09:03:28 am »
Quote
Once you have an 'overbuilt' network you have huge incentives to use that energy instead of storing it because using it is cheaper than storing and using it later.  So there come certain incentives to use energy when it's most available,  you can imagine aluminium smelters for instance following wind or solar patterns with their shifts, or electric vehicles which spend most of their time parked up charging on excess energy at low cost.
I'm sure the serious big industries will the thrilled to have random power generators and special "Green-But-Expensive Day Off" impromptu holidays.
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Offline tom66

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #127 on: April 14, 2023, 09:08:04 am »
Quote
Once you have an 'overbuilt' network you have huge incentives to use that energy instead of storing it because using it is cheaper than storing and using it later.  So there come certain incentives to use energy when it's most available,  you can imagine aluminium smelters for instance following wind or solar patterns with their shifts, or electric vehicles which spend most of their time parked up charging on excess energy at low cost.
I'm sure the serious big industries will the thrilled to have random power generators and special "Green-But-Expensive Day Off" impromptu holidays.

I don't care if they're thrilled or not  ;D.  You adapt to the changing circumstances and I am sure that in the free market economy we live in that the best companies that can manage with intermittently cheap power will do very well indeed.  If they can buy electricity in at £1/MWh instead of £100/MWh then the fact that they can only run only 20% of the time may not matter.  Let's not forget that aluminium smelters already have contracts with National Grid (UK grid operator) to switch off in times of grid constraint.  This is not really any different.
 

Offline daqqTopic starter

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #128 on: April 14, 2023, 09:37:45 am »
You adapt to the changing circumstances and I am sure that in the free market economy we live in that the best companies that can manage with intermittently cheap power will do very well indeed.
Be careful what you wish for. The free market can indeed find a solution, the problem will be that the solution won't involve Europe at all.
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Offline tom66

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #129 on: April 14, 2023, 10:25:22 am »
You adapt to the changing circumstances and I am sure that in the free market economy we live in that the best companies that can manage with intermittently cheap power will do very well indeed.
Be careful what you wish for. The free market can indeed find a solution, the problem will be that the solution won't involve Europe at all.

Well, aluminium can be made anywhere.  But EU should apply a carbon tax on any aluminium that is not made with renewable energy.  Such policies are already in discussion at committee level - imported carbon tax etc.
 

Offline daqqTopic starter

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #130 on: April 14, 2023, 11:34:28 am »
Well, aluminium can be made anywhere.
Yes. So can everything else. That's kind of my point.
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Offline Neutrion

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #131 on: April 14, 2023, 12:04:42 pm »

A lot in nuclear fission competence will be applicable to fusion power plants when we will get there, also as I mentioned before fast breeders not only provide power, but also allow getting rid of old nuclear waste, so in my opinion their somewhat higher price is justified because of that aspect.
Another aspect to it is that it's not just operational competense, but also scientific one, which tends to follow NPPs, especially if those plants are actually designed in the country, and not just purchased elsewhere as a turnkey solution. Do you know where the most of somewhat recent super-heavy elements were first synthesized? Do you think it's an accident that the country has been quite active in the NPPs construction?

The science won't be lost, and it is quiet much different in NPP compared to fusion especially in the 30-40 years time if than at all fusion will be an option.
Please note, that even wind power, a comparatively simple tech took 30-40 years to mature to the current level, so expect the same timeframe from the point when the first practically working fusion power plant prototype will be built in the future. So to the current level of renewable cost we will get in around 40-50 years. If at all. During that time renewables will be even cheaper.


I also think it's just not possible in any near future. Just fricking do the maths with any kind of existing tech and what is reasonably possible.

You (and people making the same claims) are somehow reversing the burden of the proof by asking people to prove that it's not possible, when basic facts and evidence is all over the place, while claiming something that is backed only by speculation and fantasy at this point. Unless maybe you have a very elastic definition of "near future", of course.


Well we already mentioned the tech:

1. Renewables.

2.Power to gas storage  (Check it, a Swedish company already provides the tech in  household scale,
so the physical demonstration is there if someone would not belive it is possible to produce hydrogen with current, and water. Scaling it up is all what is needed.

3.Connecting the power networks properly.

4.Demand management. In the UK the first flexible tariffs are introduced now.

It just cost money, but it cost less than ruining the planet. And compared to the amount what people spend on some nonsense throwaway stuff, including regularly buying a new smartphone just  to have even more camera on the back and similar nonsense, the cost is actually peanuts.

Well, aluminium can be made anywhere.
Yes. So can everything else. That's kind of my point.

It is a valid point, and it happened in the last 30 years with many industrial stuff. The reason why China is the biggest polluter is actually because we outsourced our pollution there, and even now their pollution pro person is much lower than peolple in the EU or US.
And that is why the green import taxes are going to be needed, and they are in planning as far as I know. So companies can move, but than soon they can only sell their products to elswhere.








 
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #132 on: April 14, 2023, 12:48:56 pm »
Capacity is not the same as power.

Yeah, which is understandable because "capacity" is not a physical entity at all, just a made up marketing word which can be arbitrarily defined.

Just like we engineers are fine with derating tantalum capacitor nominal voltage by 40% instead of wasting our time in discussing whether the stupid tantalum capacitor rating culture is Klaus Schwab's lizard conspiracy, we engineers can also look at the actual energy production graphs of wind power, which are widely available (or more complex metrics, if interested). Of course, projecting into future is always a tad difficult.

For example, directly replacing 100GWe(rated nominal) of nuclear by 100GW (rated nominal) of wind and claiming nothing else changes is obviously not going to work. Another strawman argument, because no one in their right mind would suggest doing that. Right? If they do, please show where such mistake is happening.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 12:54:15 pm by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline Kleinstein

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #133 on: April 14, 2023, 01:16:13 pm »
It is hard to replace all the fossile fuel by renewables, but it is not impossible. In some areas (especially air transport) it will be quite a bit more expensive than the current situation, but so is life.
Flying on nuclear power was a bad idea to start with.

Nuclear power is only helping to rather limited degree - building a lot more NPPs takes too much time and to really make a difference there is just not enough uranium (at least not for the existing designs).
The other point with nuclear is, that it is expensive. AFAIR the UK is guaranteeing a price of some 17 cents for the new build NPPs. For wind power they calculate with some 5 cents in favorable places and PV often gets less then 10 cents.  So in many areas there is little economic sense in building new expensive nuclear power.
Some high energy industries (e.g. aluminium some chemistry like fertilizers and maybe steel) may have to move to regions with cheaper renewable power. It makes little sense to have them in areas where the supply is difficult.

For Germany it may  have been the better decision to run the NPPs a little longer. Given the relatively good safety level / record  (execpt for the high temperature thorium one) it would have made more sense to shut down the NPPs in Belgium and keep the better ones in Germany running. Still the difference to coal is not that big and ideally, without the war in the Ukrain it would have been gas and not coal to provide a little more power. Neither nuclear nor coal are desireable, they are best avoided both.
 
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #134 on: April 14, 2023, 01:21:54 pm »
See attachments (yes, possibly cherrypicked data, but quite realistic scenarios):

So what's the problem you are seeing?

The near-zero dips (deep enough that doubling or even quadrupling the capacity would still not help, because multiplying near-zero by even a large number is still very little) constitute just maybe 5-10% of the time. You can just burn fossil fuels during that time, just like we used to do, with the exception that currently (well, not anymore everywhere) we pretty much burn fossil fuels all the time, not just 5-10%.

The whole idea of adding renewable ("uncertain") energy sources is to replace fossil fuels joule by joule, and it works out well exactly because fossil fuels can be easily stored and burning them is relatively cheap. Storage question: already solved.

Once the opponents of wind power totally ran out of credibility with their "the power is insignificant" arguments, they went full 180 degrees and excess renewable production has been made a big deal, but it doesn't have to be. If we have nothing to put the extra energy in, then... so what? All that happens is it worsens the economics of the wind turbines as they will see partial duty cycle, but it also brings down the prices of competing forms of energy, and with on-shore wind being now one of the cheapest forms of energy, even if it gets somewhat more expensive again it's still not a problem. Of course, again we will see the same discussion shift: wind power was supposed to bring prices up, and when it brings the prices down, then suddenly low prices will be the next bad thing. I have heard this a few times already: wind bad because wind makes electricity cheap! Market bully!

In other words, storage of energy is not at all mandatory to enable renewables and significant reduction in fossil fuel use; not at all! It is just that improving the storage options would make a lot of sense. It always did! Nuclear required it nearly as much as renewables. But we had cheap fossil fuels, and we needed wars to gain access to said resources. One such war is currently on-going in Europe, to gain access to more gas, to be sold to Germans, paid by the Finnish taxpayers.

Even ignoring CO2, the nastiness of the politics that goes with fossil fuels is reason enough to reduce their use. While CO2 scales down linearly, political uncertainty scales down even better. Once you buy less, you as customer can choose the terms, including price.

We engineers see problems and solve them, and sometimes it's a bit weird as laymen come and interpret this normal process of progress as some kind of "crisis". "Oh look, they are trying to store energy, LOL, they are desperate" or something like that. Pretty weird IMHO.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 01:31:27 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Offline asmi

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #135 on: April 14, 2023, 01:57:15 pm »
And that is why the green import taxes are going to be needed, and they are in planning as far as I know. So companies can move, but than soon they can only sell their products to elswhere.
That is yet another ideological delusion. Reality is Europe needs China's products much more than China needs Europe as a market, because China has alternatives, while Europe does not.

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #136 on: April 14, 2023, 02:12:05 pm »
For Germany it may  have been the better decision to run the NPPs a little longer. Given the relatively good safety level / record  (execpt for the high temperature thorium one) it would have made more sense to shut down the NPPs in Belgium and keep the better ones in Germany running. Still the difference to coal is not that big and ideally, without the war in the Ukrain it would have been gas and not coal to provide a little more power. Neither nuclear nor coal are desireable, they are best avoided both.

Indeed; the story for both nuclear and fossil fuels is ending, and good riddance. Investing in those in the long run in 2000's has bad endings.

Case study Finland:

In 2002-2003, when the rest of the world is moving away from building new nuclear since the golden age in 1960-1980, we decide it would be an excellent idea to build another (edit: partially) state-owned plant; and that it has to be a novel construction which has been never built before. The thing that was supposed to finish in 2009, finished in 2023, after being postponed by 22 times, and 165% overbudget. At 8.5 billion EUR, it became the most expensive construction project known to human kind.

In 2017, during the freaking war in Ukraine (reminder: which did not start in 2022 but 8 years earlier), Finnish government decided, against all expert advice including the board of Uniper itself, that it would be an excellent idea to invest our taxpayer money in Russia's gas pipe to German customers. Think about the business opportunities! So our state-owned energy company Fortum bought the completely zero-worth German gas company, Uniper, for 8 billion EUR. As it was obviously falling apart, we kept pumping more money in just to finally hear in 2022 that Germany is going to nationalize this zero-worth business. I lost the count of exact sum of money we finally subsidized German gas bills with as it become pretty complicated, but I guess it's in the range of 20 billion EUR. Which is a lot for a country with capita of 5 million.

I don't blame the politicians who decided on the nuclear in 2002. Wrong choice in hindsight, but renewables did not have any track record back then. It is easy to say now that this 8.5 billion would have been better spent by not doing anything until 2012 and then building a shitload of wind power with even half of that money. But this is in hindsight. However, investing massively in fossil fuels; and specifically on Putin's fossil fuels, during wartime, cannot be explained away.

With all of this tragedy of extremely poor political choices, all that was left was getting more in debt, enjoy cocaine, implement better media control, party like no tomorrow, and get massively more in debt. Finally this year, many would agree with the media that our healthcare system has basically collapsed.

Most of the attention has been in extremely poor financial policy by said cocaine party government and the massive amount of debt they signed into; but their consequences will be seen in the future; one can't blame them alone; they walked into a broken system which they just were unable to fix. What was almost dismissed was the cost of poor energy choices, namely trusting nuclear and fossil fuel sources. It is sad to see some people seem to think the problem is in renewable energy, when it's really fossil fuels that let us down again. And nuclear's not much better.

Everything except renewable energy is failing. Those who said it already 20 years ago were right, no matter how hard it is to admit this.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 08:48:29 am by Siwastaja »
 

Offline shapirus

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Offline Neutrion

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #138 on: April 14, 2023, 03:24:37 pm »
And that is why the green import taxes are going to be needed, and they are in planning as far as I know. So companies can move, but than soon they can only sell their products to elswhere.
That is yet another ideological delusion. Reality is Europe needs China's products much more than China needs Europe as a market, because China has alternatives, while Europe does not.
Why would it be ideological delusion to require a level playing field? Anyone could buy chinese or american stuff in the future as well, just have to pay the enviromental cost difference.
Even now there are pretty high import taxes on some goods which dont't fit into some regulation, this is not new.

The Hungarian nuclear story is almost as succesful as that our finnish brothers in the north:

In 2013 just at the dawn of emerging renewables we signed a contract with the russians for a new nuclear plant  planned to be ready in 2023 because of course renewables are just a  green joke and we are much smarter than that.
Russian, because only Russia provided a good credit for it because of course private companies not wanted to touch such an investment but in their nightmares. And the state did not have the money.
Western or japanese stuff would also be even more expensive.

Obviously we got into an EU court case with our austrian neighbours who don't reall want more NPPs in the EU, and other legal EU battles about state sponsorship.
When we got through it, than came the realization that the russian plans were not in accordance with EU standards so a redesign has to be done.
That was even before the war, without the sanctions.
Now at least the costs were fixed and to be beared by the russians, but how that would be possible with all the sanctions etc. is a big question. Maybe they can use some cheaper materials, chinese fake chips or spare costs here and there...
Inbetween we also realized that the cooling water in the Danube will not be enough during the summer drought periods, so we might even provide Romania with substantial amount of fish soup in the future.
(There is an older NPP there working at the moment too.)

Fortunately we only digged out the holes for the fundaments, so not too much money is spent.

Inbetween we seamlessly got more solar capacity in 5 years than the NPP would have, and struggling to integrate it. Yes I know it is not a substitution, but still it shows the trends. But also this amount of solar would squeze out the nuclear energy from the net during the daytime, so they are not even compatible with eachother.

During this period the germans went to more than 50% renewable on average.




« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 03:29:16 pm by Neutrion »
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #139 on: April 14, 2023, 03:56:53 pm »
Why would it be ideological delusion to require a level playing field? Anyone could buy chinese or american stuff in the future as well, just have to pay the enviromental cost difference.

Exactly, and Chinese are happy to sell. They know how to be cost-competitive and how to do business.

The "boohoo EU bad, China good, we need China, China gets mad and stops supplying us" story is just fear-mongering, nothing else. All China wants is business relationships with basically everybody, and EU is a huge market anyway because people here still have a lot of money at their disposal, compared to developing world (China is more interested about their natural resources).
 

Offline asmi

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #140 on: April 14, 2023, 04:08:46 pm »
The "boohoo EU bad, China good, we need China, China gets mad and stops supplying us" story is just fear-mongering, nothing else. All China wants is business relationships with basically everybody, and EU is a huge market anyway because people here still have a lot of money at their disposal, compared to developing world (China is more interested about their natural resources).
That's right, China doesn't want this conflict. It's the eurobureaucrats keep towing neocon's line of provoking China to please their masters from across the pond. But you can only push the Dragon so far until it starts hitting back.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 04:10:36 pm by asmi »
 

Offline m k

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #141 on: April 14, 2023, 04:23:18 pm »
state-owned

=

postponed by 22 times, and 165% overbudget.

No.
This time state and overbudget are different.
It's a seller who pays, fixed price.

Delays are because of failed inspections.
Starting from the quality of concrete.
Last was feed pump cracks, unused pumps that is.
Advance-Aneng-Appa-AVO-Beckman-Danbridge-Data Tech-Fluke-General Radio-H. W. Sullivan-Heathkit-HP-Kaise-Kyoritsu-Leeds & Northrup-Mastech-OR-X-REO-Simpson-Sinclair-Tektronix-Tokyo Rikosha-Topward-Triplett-Tritron-YFE
(plus lesser brands from the work shop of the world)
 

Offline shapirus

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #142 on: April 14, 2023, 04:41:32 pm »
All China wants is business relationships with basically everybody
Could be agreed with until recently, when it became clear that China is now ruled by an absolute dictator who's been in power for too many years to remain mentally sane by now.
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #143 on: April 14, 2023, 04:53:13 pm »
Could be agreed with until recently, when it became clear that China is now ruled by an absolute dictator who's been in power for too many years to remain mentally sane by now.

Maybe, but he would still sell his own mother. Chinese have always been businessmen, and will do business even with "enemies".
 

Offline MT

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #144 on: April 14, 2023, 05:29:01 pm »
Is this the bit where he takes a graph, takes 1% of it out and shows that instead of the whole thing to prove the temperature is going down instead of up? Clever bloke. If I remember rightly he is also the guy that said a weedkiller is so safe he'd drink it, when the interviewer produced a bottle of it he promptly swore and abandoned the interview and I think his weedkiller making client that was paying him a lot?

Mmm yep...


"You can drink a whole glass of it" ... "I'd be happy to drink a whole glass of it"
"I'm not doing that, I'm not an idiot"

Yeah, the guy is pretty discredited.
My guess is he realised he could make more money going to the "dark side" than following along with Greenpeace.  It is odd, though!

Yes, his proposal for "golden rice" is quite creepy , still he's quite correct that the "man made climate change" is a fraud.
Here is another one where he claims noone died from nuclear accidents.

 

Offline JPortici

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #145 on: April 14, 2023, 05:38:46 pm »
Well, aluminium can be made anywhere.
Yes. So can everything else. That's kind of my point.

It is a valid point, and it happened in the last 30 years with many industrial stuff. The reason why China is the biggest polluter is actually because we outsourced our pollution there, and even now their pollution pro person is much lower than peolple in the EU or US.
And that is why the green import taxes are going to be needed, and they are in planning as far as I know. So companies can move, but than soon they can only sell their products to elswhere.

Screw that. we need to be able to be as independent as we can. This means that we must be able to manufacture as much as we can and bring productions inside the EU instead of outsource everything but the highest margin products. People need to eat, stay warm and have a roof on their head. We are still paying the price for relying on cheap russian gas (and cheap north africa gas as well). I'd rather rely on canada's and australia's uranium
 

Offline MT

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #146 on: April 14, 2023, 05:52:08 pm »
Is this the bit where he takes a graph, takes 1% of it out and shows that instead of the whole thing to prove the temperature is going down instead of up?

You need to do your home work about "global climate change" made by the sun etc and not all the time buy into "Schwab/WEF man made crap". Begin with the Younger Dryas, Holocene etc ice core graph.

 

Offline shapirus

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #147 on: April 14, 2023, 06:26:50 pm »
Screw that. we need to be able to be as independent as we can. This means that we must be able to manufacture as much as we can
Meaning, first of all, weapons and ammunition of every type.
And, of course, hundreds of thousands of UAVs of various sizes and purposes. Can the EU countries produce at least one without depending on Chinese components? ICs? Sensors? PCBs? Batteries? Motors?

People need to eat, stay warm and have a roof on their head.
This is important, but not worth anything before you are able to quickly produce large quantities of weapons and ammunition wherewith to defend everything else.
 

Offline tom66

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #148 on: April 14, 2023, 07:24:00 pm »
Is this the bit where he takes a graph, takes 1% of it out and shows that instead of the whole thing to prove the temperature is going down instead of up?

You need to do your home work about "global climate change" made by the sun etc and not all the time buy into "Schwab/WEF man made crap". Begin with the Younger Dryas, Holocene etc ice core graph.

I'm not sure about that source of data, but regardless, it isn't really the magnitude of the change in temperature, but the rate at which it changes.  If after 1,000 years the earth is 1C warmer on average, it stands to reason that life and ecosystems may be able to adapt.  When people talk about the MWP that's what they reference.  But in our situation we're looking at <100 years for >3-4C warming.  It's unpredecedented.  Outside of the mass extinction event that was due to a meteor impact, we have never seen such a rate of change before.

And I haven't heard anyone saying we won't be able to adapt - it's more like the cost of adapting will be extremely significant if we unlock things like feedback loops.  Such costs could include widescale famine and deaths of upwards of a billion people.  Change now is better than being forced to do things later, and has a significantly reduced human cost.  And the best bit is, we can actually do it, it isn't impossible, as much as the fossil fuel industry and climate deniers like to state.

This XKCD comic puts it into perspective nicely:
https://xkcd.com/1732/
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #149 on: April 14, 2023, 11:15:55 pm »
Well, aluminium can be made anywhere.  But EU should apply a carbon tax on any aluminium that is not made with renewable energy.  Such policies are already in discussion at committee level - imported carbon tax etc.

How do they know?

China can always say "oh yeah this alminum you're buying was made with 100% renewable energy" and since it's half the price of the "same" thing offered by anyone else, somebody buys it.

I'm all for trying to keep the environment clean, but I do think a lot of our efforts to do so result in just moving the pollution somewhere else. Arguably better for us than having it in our own town but not really better for the planet as a whole.
 


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