Author Topic: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th  (Read 24153 times)

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Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #150 on: April 14, 2023, 11:30:12 pm »
Capacity is not the same as power. Installing 100GW of renewables capacity is not the same as being able to shut down 100GW worth of other sources.

See attachments (yes, possibly cherrypicked data, but quite realistic scenarios):

Yes of course, you cannot use renewables only.  This is why you combine renewables with storage (hydrogen looks like a possible contender, but other options are available).  You use the stored energy during periods with less wind/solar/etc.  And combine that with long HVDC links that can move power across the European continent or from north Africa, or repurpose suitable gas transmission systems to move hydrogen. 

Once you have an 'overbuilt' network you have huge incentives to use that energy instead of storing it because using it is cheaper than storing and using it later.  So there come certain incentives to use energy when it's most available,  you can imagine aluminium smelters for instance following wind or solar patterns with their shifts, or electric vehicles which spend most of their time parked up charging on excess energy at low cost.

Nope. The problem is that in the end you will want a distribution network with an even load because that will be the most cost efficient use of the distribution network. Part of low/high tariffs are not only to get an even load of sources, but also to get an even load on the distribution grid.

To put that into perspective: Before the war in Ukraine, 50% of my electricity cost are distribution costs. The other 50% generation costs. Both numbers before taxes.

The same goes for generation. Electricity costs a fixed amount to generate. What is sold below a profitable price must be compensated with a higher price later on to compensate for the loss. This causes huge price fluctuations which is not beneficial for a society and economy. Currently some companies in the NL have changed their working hours because their equipment is too expensive to run. It is cheaper to just pay the employees for not working compared to paying the electricity bill. Needless to say this is bad for business. So in the end you will want electricity for a constant price during the day (24 hours). Keep in mind that a lot of people / companies have fixed tariff contracts so they can plan their finances better.

Solution: stop thinking in terms of generating precisely enough electricity to meet demands AND stop thinking in terms of making demand meeting generation in case of renewables. Both are not going to work in the future. All the elasticity needs to come from hydrogen storage (as batteries are too expensive for storage that needs to bridge >8 hours; just google that).

With elasticity coming from storage you can start to add flexibility to your sourcing. A country can ofcourse choose to become reliable on hydrogen imports but recent events have shown that is not a good idea. And that is where nuclear power plants come in handy: they buy a country independance and reliability. And you can run these at their optimal economical operating point 24/7. When the electricity isn't needed right now, it goes into hydrogen storage.

In the NL the government likely has seen this as a great advantage. Since the NL has been a big natural gas producer until not so long ago, it is already in 'our' DNA to be energy self sufficient to a large extend.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 11:42:30 pm by nctnico »
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Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #151 on: April 14, 2023, 11:37:57 pm »
ALL energy we receive ultimately came from the Sun in one way or another. But energy consumption will only grow, because that is the metric of civilizational development, so at some point it will overtake anything that Sun can provide us no matter how large that amount is. If you want a proof that energy consumption will only ever grow, look at entire history of humankind. All technological advances hinged on using more and more energy. There is no historical precedent when that wasn't the case.
Bollocks. You can't fit enough people on earth to consume the amount of energy that the sun delivers to our planet. Over a 24 hour period, the sun supplies the earth with average amount of 160Watt per square meter. Now calculate the number of square meters of our planet and multiply.

If you analyse how much energy 'we' consume, you'll see that the Sun supplies the earth with like a million to a trillion times more energy than we consume. Just for kicks look at the pictures of how many solar panels need to be put in the Sahara to supply the world with electricity. The amount of energy the sun produces is insane.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 11:41:09 pm by nctnico »
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Offline asmi

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #152 on: April 15, 2023, 12:19:37 am »
Bollocks. You can't fit enough people on earth to consume the amount of energy that the sun delivers to our planet. Over a 24 hour period, the sun supplies the earth with average amount of 160Watt per square meter. Now calculate the number of square meters of our planet and multiply.

If you analyse how much energy 'we' consume, you'll see that the Sun supplies the earth with like a million to a trillion times more energy than we consume. Just for kicks look at the pictures of how many solar panels need to be put in the Sahara to supply the world with electricity. The amount of energy the sun produces is insane.
Bollocks is what you've just spewed, because it is absolutely contradicts all human history. We won't need more people for that, just compare how much energy per human was consumed just 100 years ago vs nowadays, and there is absolutely no reason to believe this trend will not continue.

Offline james_s

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #153 on: April 15, 2023, 12:37:16 am »
The sun does produce an insane amount of energy, but a large portion of that energy falls where nobody can make use of it. There are significant costs and losses to transport energy over long distances.
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #154 on: April 15, 2023, 12:56:25 am »
 :popcorn:
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #155 on: April 15, 2023, 06:21:45 am »
All the elasticity needs to come from hydrogen storage (as batteries are too expensive for storage that needs to bridge >8 hours; just google that).

I'm saying this again, but a lot of elasticity can and will come from distributed thermal storage of heating/cooling buildings and hot water. This is a truly low-hanging fruit which is still not being fully picked. In many cases, the storage resources exist, and it's only control systems that are lacking (disclosure: we are manufacturing and selling such things.)

Industrial processes can't flex, but industrial, commercial and household heating/cooling can. Cost for storing energy into hot water or just building materials is ridiculously small compared to both hydrogen and li-ion solutions, and the time constants that can be had are easily around 24 hours.

This still won't solve the "it's cold and the wind is totally standstill for 10 successive days" condition, the time constant is too just long. You still have to burn fossils - or store excess renewable production as hydrogen as you suggest - to bridge that gap. But this condition does not happen every winter at all. In total, this is below 1-2% of annual energy.

All attempts to oversimplify the energy solutions of humanity fail. The solution is a large palette of sources, and a large palette of storage / load management systems, because every system has different drawbacks compared to others. Even just simple averaging enables synergy; with explicit control and planning, even better.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 06:38:22 am by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #156 on: April 15, 2023, 07:27:27 am »
Capacity is not the same as power. Installing 100GW of renewables capacity is not the same as being able to shut down 100GW worth of other sources.

See attachments (yes, possibly cherrypicked data, but quite realistic scenarios):

Yes of course, you cannot use renewables only.  This is why you combine renewables with storage (hydrogen looks like a possible contender, but other options are available).  You use the stored energy during periods with less wind/solar/etc.  And combine that with long HVDC links that can move power across the European continent or from north Africa, or repurpose suitable gas transmission systems to move hydrogen. 

Once you have an 'overbuilt' network you have huge incentives to use that energy instead of storing it because using it is cheaper than storing and using it later.  So there come certain incentives to use energy when it's most available,  you can imagine aluminium smelters for instance following wind or solar patterns with their shifts, or electric vehicles which spend most of their time parked up charging on excess energy at low cost.


there is gas and then there is gas. You cannot automatically put hydrogen into methane pipes, you see that carbon atom in the CH4 is huge, needs a big hole to get through. Hydrogen is one of the smallest attoms, seals that keep methane in will let hydrogen leak. To use hydrogen the network would need rebuilding.
 

Offline Simon

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #157 on: April 15, 2023, 07:31:00 am »
ALL energy we receive ultimately came from the Sun in one way or another. But energy consumption will only grow, because that is the metric of civilizational development, so at some point it will overtake anything that Sun can provide us no matter how large that amount is. If you want a proof that energy consumption will only ever grow, look at entire history of humankind. All technological advances hinged on using more and more energy. There is no historical precedent when that wasn't the case.
Bollocks. You can't fit enough people on earth to consume the amount of energy that the sun delivers to our planet. Over a 24 hour period, the sun supplies the earth with average amount of 160Watt per square meter. Now calculate the number of square meters of our planet and multiply.

If you analyse how much energy 'we' consume, you'll see that the Sun supplies the earth with like a million to a trillion times more energy than we consume. Just for kicks look at the pictures of how many solar panels need to be put in the Sahara to supply the world with electricity. The amount of energy the sun produces is insane.

I didn't bother explaining it to him in the detail you went to. I hoped he'd come back with a rational argument that would have had to say what you just said. Instead he accused me of abusing my power by replying to him perhaps pointing out that he was just running around trolling the thread with nonsense. He's been doing the typical thing of shifting the point to keep going without answering any points.
 

Offline Traceless

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #158 on: April 15, 2023, 08:51:32 am »
FWIW I think it is a very good decision to get rid of all NPPs. Gas should be substituted by hydrogen and the coal plants should be shut down ASAP as well of course and only serve as backups.
 

Offline tom66

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #159 on: April 15, 2023, 09:38:17 am »
Well, aluminium can be made anywhere.  But EU should apply a carbon tax on any aluminium that is not made with renewable energy.  Such policies are already in discussion at committee level - imported carbon tax etc.

How do they know?

China can always say "oh yeah this alminum you're buying was made with 100% renewable energy" and since it's half the price of the "same" thing offered by anyone else, somebody buys it.

I'm all for trying to keep the environment clean, but I do think a lot of our efforts to do so result in just moving the pollution somewhere else. Arguably better for us than having it in our own town but not really better for the planet as a whole.

Same as anything that relies on trust.  You have auditors and chains of trustworthy organisations and paperwork.  Yes fraud can happen but if you make it difficult and with significant consequences (e.g. being barred from trading) then it becomes too difficult to pull off.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #160 on: April 15, 2023, 10:21:34 am »
All the elasticity needs to come from hydrogen storage (as batteries are too expensive for storage that needs to bridge >8 hours; just google that).

I'm saying this again, but a lot of elasticity can and will come from distributed thermal storage of heating/cooling buildings and hot water. This is a truly low-hanging fruit which is still not being fully picked. In many cases, the storage resources exist, and it's only control systems that are lacking (disclosure: we are manufacturing and selling such things.)
I think you are blinded by wanting your idea to be succesfull. You proposed some interesting numbers but I don't think these systems are usefull for domestic use as they will only make sense if such a system can provide storage over periods that lasts way longer than 6 months. Now calculate the volume of water and thermal insulation you need; the volume required is just too large. I ran some numbers on my own but the water storage is just too bulky and too cumbersome to install  even if I would make it underground in the garden.

If you can't span a long period, you'll have to rely on alternate sources being available. Remember that every energy source will need it's own distribution network so having multiple sources increases the cost. Especially if the load on that distribution network is extremely uneven over time (which is what local storage is supposed to solve).

Recently I have put solar panels on my roof and the first thing I noticed is that their output varies a lot per day. If I want to add a meaningfull storage system to it then that storage system should be able to even out electricity use over a time span of at least 2 weeks. I might manage not needing electricity from the grid for 6 months a year during the summer months. But I'll still need an electricity grid connection which costs money even if I don't use it at all. And I'll still need to pay for all the grid & generation upgrades that are needed to supply electricity in the winter.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 10:25:22 am by nctnico »
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #161 on: April 15, 2023, 10:47:17 am »
Nah, I'm not saying distributed thermal storage solves every possible problem.

But the gain what you get by storing for just 6-12 hours is pretty significant. We are currently struggling with things like having a lot of excess electricity during nighttime for nearly 0 cost, then consumption increasing at 7:00 and wind getting still at the same time (an interesting natural factor), a huge discrepancy, then at least 2-3 good hours during daytime, again worse in late afternoon, and so on.

This is the low hanging fruit: control loads like hot water tanks, in-floor heating elements (which people already have), EV chargers and heatpumps during the best hours of the day.

It does not solve the need for longer-term storage but it's nevertheless a huge difference for a relatively low cost. It's also not for everyone because if you heat both your house and your domestic hot water by burning gas or oil and drive a gasoline car, there is nothing to control. At the same time, some users have excellent "user stories", like those with direct electric heating of both the house and hot water.

Additionally, we need want longer-term storage, in range of weeks, or even better, annual storage. Hydrogen is a strong candidate here indeed, but you can't just go and buy your personal hydrogen storage box, but you can buy an energy management device which makes clever use of the resources you already have. For those who have them.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 10:57:25 am by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #162 on: April 15, 2023, 11:22:41 am »
should be able to even out electricity use over a time span of at least 2 weeks.

Talking about time constants, I ran the simulation with our current optimization algorithm which just optimizes for spot prices given the limit on time constant, which is basically how much storage you have (explicitly in form of water, or implicitly in the construction materials of the house).

The results are as follows:
TC= 4h AvgOnPrice= 7.96c/kWh ( 82.8%) Money=  62.40EUR ->   51.61EUR(-17.3%)
TC=12h AvgOnPrice= 6.52c/kWh ( 67.7%) Money=  62.40EUR ->   42.23EUR(-32.3%)
TC= 24h AvgOnPrice= 5.59c/kWh ( 58.1%) Money=  62.40EUR ->   36.21EUR(-42.0%)
TC=  3d AvgOnPrice= 4.76c/kWh ( 49.5%) Money=  62.40EUR ->   30.85EUR(-50.6%)
TC=  7d AvgOnPrice= 4.00c/kWh ( 41.5%) Money=  62.40EUR ->   25.89EUR(-58.5%)

(Data is simulated with Finnish weather conditions and spot prices during this year, Money refers to a dimensioning where 0.9*1kW of heating power is needed at -30degC outdoor temperature; scale accordingly.)

The conclusion is, while it would be fancy to have a massive pool of water able to store energy for a week (let alone TWO weeks, which I did not even simulate because my stupid algorithm implementation was never designed for such large time constants and gets computationally slow), savings one gets from even just shuffling the hours within 4-hour window is not meaningless, and this does not require massive constructions.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #163 on: April 15, 2023, 12:21:08 pm »
But this is under the assumption that spot prices stay constantly low. IMHO this is a very poor assumption to make. Especially when the ROI time is long (>5 years). Once there is a significant number of people having their own storage (OR the utility companies decide to implement storage as this is obviously economically worthwhile), the daytime prices will become lower and the night time prices will rise. I have been paying the same price for electricity (day / night) for a very long time already. The NL grid uses pumped storage in Norway.

Additionally, we need want longer-term storage, in range of weeks, or even better, annual storage. Hydrogen is a strong candidate here indeed, but you can't just go and buy your personal hydrogen storage box,
That is a decission I have put on hold for about 10 years. Metal hydrate storage systems are available but their ROI time is like >30 years. I'll just see where it goes. It could be suitable solid state batteries are available in a decade and/or metal hydrate storage systems become available.  At this moment the grid is my battery as I get the same amount of money per kWh consument / delivered to the grid but that is going to stop in the next couple of years (but long after the solar panels have paid for themselves).
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 12:29:10 pm by nctnico »
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #164 on: April 15, 2023, 01:04:43 pm »
But this is under the assumption that spot prices stay constantly low. IMHO this is a very poor assumption to make. Especially when the ROI time is long (>5 years). Once there is a significant number of people having their own storage (OR the utility companies decide to implement storage as this is obviously economically worthwhile), the daytime prices will become lower and the night time prices will rise.

This is of course true. Solving the problem removes the problem, after which the incentive to keep solving it seemingly disappears. But it's a fallacy - if you remove the solution, the problem reappears.

This pattern is true for any problem, btw., and we are all susceptible to this brainfart. For example let's say vaccinations (not some covid-20%-effective-bullshit but good old true and tested vaccines we all agree on): when you vaccinate, the case numbers go down, and vaccination seemingly becomes redundant and stupid thing to do. Yet if you stop vaccinating in large enough scale, the disease makes a comeback.

We are fully aware that solving the very thing we are solving finally undermines our own market. But at that point, we are still needed and there are many other things we can also do.

BTW, the ROI for our little box, at 349 EUR, is 0.5 years to 2 years, depending on the customer case (and we don't sell to customers who don't need the product). But it's still very early to say anything solid about it since it has been on the market just a few months and we have just handful of customers. We will see how it flies.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 01:11:27 pm by Siwastaja »
 

Offline mikerj

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #165 on: April 15, 2023, 01:07:17 pm »
FWIW I think it is a very good decision to get rid of all NPPs.

Why? Explain your reasoning.

Gas should be substituted by hydrogen and the coal plants should be shut down ASAP as well of course and only serve as backups.

Where do you believe this magical hydrogen going to come from?
 

Offline tom66

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #166 on: April 15, 2023, 02:32:38 pm »
But this is under the assumption that spot prices stay constantly low. IMHO this is a very poor assumption to make. Especially when the ROI time is long (>5 years). Once there is a significant number of people having their own storage (OR the utility companies decide to implement storage as this is obviously economically worthwhile), the daytime prices will become lower and the night time prices will rise. I have been paying the same price for electricity (day / night) for a very long time already. The NL grid uses pumped storage in Norway.

With wind power entering the grid, while the idea of expensive day and cheap night may change, it's pretty easy to see how electricity prices could vary at the half hourly level.
 
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Offline Bud

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #167 on: April 15, 2023, 02:46:10 pm »
So it is April 15 today. Is Germany dancing and partying ?  :popcorn:
Facebook-free life and Rigol-free shack.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #168 on: April 15, 2023, 02:51:59 pm »
But this is under the assumption that spot prices stay constantly low. IMHO this is a very poor assumption to make. Especially when the ROI time is long (>5 years). Once there is a significant number of people having their own storage (OR the utility companies decide to implement storage as this is obviously economically worthwhile), the daytime prices will become lower and the night time prices will rise. I have been paying the same price for electricity (day / night) for a very long time already. The NL grid uses pumped storage in Norway.

With wind power entering the grid, while the idea of expensive day and cheap night may change, it's pretty easy to see how electricity prices could vary at the half hourly level.
Did you do any research whether people are willing to have energy contracts based on spot prices and requiring people to live along how the wind blows and the sun shines? From what I see is that very few people are willing to do that and thus prefer flattened, predictable energy prices. Hence, any consumer solution that is based on spot prices will only serve a niche market and not solve the bigger issue with intermittant energy sources like wind and solar. And the whole grid capacity costs for large peak demands comes on top of that. You are thinking way too much in terms of engineering a solution and way too less in terms of what people will accept as a solution.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 02:54:28 pm by nctnico »
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Offline DC1MC

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #169 on: April 15, 2023, 02:52:20 pm »
So it is April 15 today. Is Germany dancing and partying ?  :popcorn:

Sure, we've finally reached the world first place of energy costs, finally passing the long time champion Bermuda, is a bit rainy today, but I think the BUGA festivities will go full speed soon to celebrate this event.

Cheers,
DC1MC
 
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Offline tom66

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #170 on: April 15, 2023, 03:00:42 pm »
Did you do any research whether people are willing to have energy contracts based on spot prices and requiring people to live along how the wind blows and the sun shines? From what I see is that very few people are willing to do that and thus prefer flattened, predictable energy prices. Hence, any consumer solution that is based on spot prices will only serve a niche market and not solve the bigger issue with intermittant energy sources like wind and solar. And the whole grid capacity costs for large peak demands comes on top of that.

Yes, conventional electricity pricing is done on hedged markets.  But you can subscribe to a service like Octopus Agile in the UK that does expose you to half hourly energy pricing.  Or use a service like Octopus Intelligent or OVO Charge Anytime which gives you cheap EV charging provided you let the energy provider determine when and how that happens.   These services will only become more common as the grid gets 'smarter' and intermittent energy more common.  It's expected the UK will have about 45GW of wind power by 2028, and around 20% of all cars will be electric.  If you can dispatch 50% of those cars at 7kW each, you've immediately got 20GW of load that you can turn on and off as needed to balance supply and demand.

I've actually just put down a deposit on a 2nd hand ID.3 which supports this technology.  The next step up is V2H which allows the car to part-discharge into the home at peak times - though there does need to be some consideration for battery wear if this leads to heavy cycling.
 
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Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #171 on: April 15, 2023, 05:33:53 pm »
Did you do any research whether people are willing to have energy contracts based on spot prices and requiring people to live along how the wind blows and the sun shines?

Which part about the automated control you failed to understand?  :palm:

It makes no sense to time your coffee making or dishwashing for cheap prices, that's real penny pitching. But you can automate the large loads which are not sensitive to exact timing. If you have those, not everyone do of course. Probably the only reason you don't grok this is because you don't, but it's blatantly obvious to those who do.

Quote
Hence, any consumer solution that is based on spot prices will only serve a niche market

This "niche" is actually pretty big as people are understanding more and more that the average price of the spot contract is less than a fixed contract (yes, we researched, and this is the one thing we expected to have to explain, but people have actually seen enough and found it out themselves already), and if you have any controllability to your patterns, it's significantly cheaper.

This is always true in the long run, due to simple laws of economics - the spot price is the true price of the energy, and no one is going to leave the money on the table and sell for less than the market value. Never happened in the human history, for any product, in the long run (communist states that tried something similar, failed). There are periods of times when fixed contracts are cheaper for a while, and people get scared and get rid of their spot price contracts, but then they regret it a few months later when the opposite, and usually larger spike happens.

Currently we are having a large group of people who panicked last year and signed into 0.40e/kWh (!!!!!) fixed contracts for freaking two years during which you cannot terminate the contract, yet the spot price average so far, this winter, which was supposed to be the crisis winter and the sole reason why people panicked and changed their contracts, is... just 0.10e/kWh.

After 2 years, their mistake has cost them something like 10000 EUR and misery having to change their living habits, reduce the room temperature and take cold showers just to save energy because it's so freaking expensive. They will happily take 0.05e/kWh average price spot energy from then on. Their panic choice cost them exactly what they were trying to avoid.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 05:38:03 pm by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline tom66

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #172 on: April 15, 2023, 05:46:49 pm »
It makes no sense to time your coffee making or dishwashing for cheap prices, that's real penny pitching. But you can automate the large loads which are not sensitive to exact timing. If you have those, not everyone do of course. Probably the only reason you don't grok this is because you don't, but it's blatantly obvious to those who do.

I always set my dishwasher and dryer to run in the cheap off peak :)  Dishwasher uses about 2kWh per cycle, and it runs about 200 times a year, so at current prices that is about £100 a year in electricity saving.

Maybe small change in the grand scale of things, but hardly any effort to just press 'delay start' and '2 hr' instead of 'start', to save this £100 a year.

In the future we may have appliances with a Zigbee connection to the smart meter, which allows them to be scheduled to run whenever the energy is cheap.  You would just load the dishwasher, and say "run when cheap, but be ready by 9am", kind of thing.
 
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Offline Someone

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #173 on: April 15, 2023, 11:41:24 pm »
But this is under the assumption that spot prices stay constantly low. IMHO this is a very poor assumption to make. Especially when the ROI time is long (>5 years). Once there is a significant number of people having their own storage (OR the utility companies decide to implement storage as this is obviously economically worthwhile), the daytime prices will become lower and the night time prices will rise. I have been paying the same price for electricity (day / night) for a very long time already. The NL grid uses pumped storage in Norway.

Additionally, we need want longer-term storage, in range of weeks, or even better, annual storage. Hydrogen is a strong candidate here indeed, but you can't just go and buy your personal hydrogen storage box,
That is a decission I have put on hold for about 10 years. Metal hydrate storage systems are available but their ROI time is like >30 years. I'll just see where it goes. It could be suitable solid state batteries are available in a decade and/or metal hydrate storage systems become available.  At this moment the grid is my battery as I get the same amount of money per kWh consument / delivered to the grid but that is going to stop in the next couple of years (but long after the solar panels have paid for themselves).
This is your circular argument:
I pay flat rates for power, this must remain in place
The grid should not have massive fluctuations in power price, so needs lots of storage
This locality has greatly mismatched seasonal use so we need impartially efficient/cheap seasonal storage to limit price fluctuations

That worked when power was backed by fossil fuel storage or massive hydro and the storage was already inherent/low cost. Gas peaking plants being the shining example of this with their LCOE being dominated by marginal costs (fuel and maintenance).

Simply removing your (imagined) need for long term storage, a more economically viable solution is to over provision the generation by a factor of 2-3 or possibly more. Cheaper power in the months (and hours) when its less demanded, more expensive when in high demand because long term storage is expensive. You might not like that, but its a cheaper system for everyone (including you) and there will be retailers offering fixed rate contracts which you can take up. On the other hand I'd prefer to be price responsive and save some money. Spot prices of wind and solar will have periods of low price/high generation long enough for storage in the 3-7 day range to be very practical and cost effective. Even plants that could hold energy for weeks-months at a time will be cycling daily as that is more profitable.
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
« Reply #174 on: April 16, 2023, 10:46:22 am »
Did you do any research whether people are willing to have energy contracts based on spot prices and requiring people to live along how the wind blows and the sun shines?

Which part about the automated control you failed to understand?  :palm:

It makes no sense to time your coffee making or dishwashing for cheap prices, that's real penny pitching. But you can automate the large loads which are not sensitive to exact timing. If you have those, not everyone do of course. Probably the only reason you don't grok this is because you don't, but it's blatantly obvious to those who do.
Have you thought about loads that run continuously for hours like lights, computers, TVs, refridgerators? Those are significant electricity users that can't really be timed. In addition not all heavy loads like washing machines and dish washers can't be run at night due to the noise. And then there are simple things like cooking dinner on an electric stove / using a microwave around dinner time. If you make a carefull analysis, you'll see that a significant amount of electricity use can't be timed at all.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2023, 10:53:43 am by nctnico »
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