General > General Technical Chat
Germany shutting down last nuclear power plants on April 15th
nctnico:
--- Quote from: Siwastaja on April 15, 2023, 05:33:53 pm ---There are periods of times when fixed contracts are cheaper for a while, and people get scared and get rid of their spot price contracts, but then they regret it a few months later when the opposite, and usually larger spike happens.
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And this is exactly why spot price contracts are not suitable for a large number of people. With a fixed income it is much easier to deal with fixed costs than surprise costs. Keep in mind that a lot of people don't have financial reserves and/or capability to deal with strongly fluctuating living costs.
To give an example: A long time ago I had a variable interest rate mortgage. At some point (IIRC around 2009) that got bumped up from 4% to 6.5%. Fortunately that is announced well in advance so I could take measures, but a spot price changes at 'random' so you never know what you are going to pay in advance. You really need to be setup for that.
tooki:
--- Quote from: langwadt on April 10, 2023, 08:35:20 pm ---
--- Quote from: james_s on April 10, 2023, 08:02:20 pm ---
--- Quote from: langwadt on April 10, 2023, 06:36:07 pm ---
--- Quote from: james_s on April 10, 2023, 05:38:16 pm ---... have less chance of an accident.
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maybe I don't know English but I think that should be risk not chance...
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Chance and risk are roughly interchangeable in that context. Lower risk == less chance of something bad happening.
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In my mind when it is the probability of something bad happening it is a risk, not a chance
you wouldn't say, those exposed wires are a safety chance
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It’s not either “chance” or “risk”, but rather that “risk” is a subset of “chance”: A risk is a chance of something bad happening.
“Chance” contains no connotation of positive or negative, it simply means it could happen. So “chance” can be paired with a desirable or undesirable (or neutral) occurrence.
So no, you couldn’t say that “exposed wires are a safety chance” because your stated outcome - safety (a positive thing) - contradicts the rest of the sentence. Although “chance” and “risk” are really both the wrong word, we’d actually say a “safety hazard”.
Siwastaja:
--- Quote from: nctnico on April 16, 2023, 11:35:57 am ---And this is exactly why spot price contracts are not suitable for a large number of people. With a fixed income it is much easier to deal with fixed costs than surprise costs.
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That is perfectly understandable, and no one is taking that option from you.
Yet surprisingly many got into the trap of signing up into massively expensive fixed cost and chose to drop their room temperature and start taking cold showers to compensate because they don't have the money to pay for the "much easier to deal with" fixed cost, then complain it's the fault of others they signed up with a bad deal and that the state should compensate by redistributing taxpayer money.
Therefore, fixed cost is no silver bullet either. People are weird and make stupid decisions with money. The best feature of a spot contract is that you can terminate it whenever you want.
BTW, I'm one of those idiots and have a fixed contract. At 0.13e/kWh, not nearly as bad as many others, but still more than spot average, which I do regret but can't do anything about it.
nctnico:
--- Quote from: Siwastaja on April 16, 2023, 11:50:01 am ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on April 16, 2023, 11:35:57 am ---And this is exactly why spot price contracts are not suitable for a large number of people. With a fixed income it is much easier to deal with fixed costs than surprise costs.
--- End quote ---
That is perfectly understandable, and no one is taking that option from you.
Yet surprisingly many got into the trap of signing up into massively expensive fixed cost and chose to drop their room temperature and start taking cold showers to compensate because they don't have the money to pay for the "much easier to deal with" fixed cost, then complain it's the fault of others they signed up with a bad deal and that the state should compensate by redistributing taxpayer money. People are weird.
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Yes, and at the same time it is that group of people that will demand levelling of prices and thus drive a grid storage oriented solution instead matching supply & demand. IOW: the problem isn't purely technical but also sociological.
Siwastaja:
--- Quote from: nctnico on April 16, 2023, 11:55:22 am ---Yes, and at the same time it is that group of people that will demand levelling of prices and thus drive a grid storage oriented solution instead matching supply & demand.
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Which cannot be suddenly implemented to the extent needed, so we work together with multiple solutions that aim for the same goal. Just like we still have both trains and cars.
The advantage of load management is that it is available NOW and works NOW, while you are hoping your total hydrogen solution will be available in 10 years, with no one knowing for sure if it's a realistic scenario or not.
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